The Crow's Nest

Buildup to a Crisis

2017-11-19T00:41:00.000-06:00

A crisis appears to be just over the horizon. It looks to involve the United States. It could be quite serious and involve mass casualties, or it may be a market disruption with injuries of an economic nature. I’m finding this one difficult to pin down much beyond "there's a thing here." It may be that there is no single crisis, but that this marks the beginning of a series of crises. I will explain the possibilities I am looking at for this initial period through December 3. Perhaps you can figure it out.

I track and analyze social mood daily, weekly, and even at longer time frames. Research spanning two decades shows that internet search trend patterns can give a glimpse into near future categories of news events as well as upcoming market changes. While the stock market may be overdue for a sharp drop, my primary concern at this moment is a crisis event (whether market related or not) that is likely to occur in the next two weeks.

The method I use begins with converting internet search trends to four primary Mood Qualities, Vulnerable, Expansive, Manic, and Controlled. The first step in analysis is to look at their changing values relative to each other, and identify any recognizable patterns (see chart below). This graph of squiggly lines implies that the primary outlook during Thanksgiving week is a combination of a pattern I call “Rose Colored Glasses” and another which points to denial or delusion. Together these paint a picture of a week where people really would like to tune out negative news, and find a bright side to things if at all possible. The following week, however, appears to be a crisis point.

Looking at the distribution of social mood geographically can give us more information about the type of crisis to watch for. Below are global and U.S. MoodMaps for the period of November 19-26. The WorldMood map shows the U.S. in an aggressive mood, an unstable region around Kazakhstan, and an area marked “destructive” in Northern Chile. I have no further information about the non-U.S. regions, but they warrant keeping an eye on, as they show an elevated risk as trouble spots.

A look at the U.S. MoodMap for this same period (below) does not give us any clue about the “aggression” seen on the global map (but hold that thought). The green area over the East Coast, depicts the kind of mood often described as “the calm before the storm,” or sometimes as “cricket sounds.” This goes well with the mood pattern from the spaghetti line graph we were looking at earlier, and the idea of trying to look past anything negative or “denial.”

Often the pattern earlier identified as “aggressive” on the world map will coincide with military escalation, or at least with geopolitical bluster. Yet, without a region showing up as a target of such aggression, it’s of little imminent concern. Turning the page, so to speak, we will look at the following week’s maps (below).

For November 27 – December 3, the U.S. is shown as destructive and/or disruptive. The only other region identified as significant is North and South Korea and Japan which are shown as defensive and/or risk averse. The two weeks' world maps together imply one possible scenario as the United States upping the rhetoric or action in the situation with North Korea during this period.

Yet again, there is another picture coming from the United States MoodMap. There is a region showing as “disruptive” centered around New York. This particular configuration can mean several things. 1) Disruptive activity such as protests or even terrorist activity. 2) Being New York, it can indicate market disruption. 3) A disruptive natural event. 4) Last, but not least, being New York, it could also point to a final Manic market rally.

The only way I can see putting both the global and U.S. maps for this week together would be some type of market disruption that affects the U.S. and East Asia in particular. However, there can be more than one thing happening here.

In summary, the weekly mood pattern tells us to watch for a crisis event on some level as soon as the weekend following Thanksgiving through Monday December 3. The maps caution of one possible scenario being the United States escalating the North Korea situation, another possibility being a New York disruptive event such as mass protests, or even terrorist activity. There could be a disruptive market event, or possibly a severe weather event. A note of caution to those looking to short the stock market: even IF there is a disruptive market event at some point before December 3, that does not mean there won't be a large rally before or after that.

These maps as well as the mood timeline are not crystal balls, and don't tell us what necessarily will happen. However, more often than not, they give us a glimpse of a future mood category which in turn allows us to make an educated guess at the type of event(s) which might accompany a given societal "response."

The One Song-- It All Points to This

2017-10-17T19:48:00.002-05:00

A refreshingly deep discussion about the One appeared of all places on a site where my postings as an analyst are usually confined to what the general mood will be tomorrow and how that will affect the markets. I'd like to share the original post and my posted reply. -- Dr. C.

Their post:
What if, our concept of our individuality is built on a more primitive time where there's more connection between you and I that meets the eye?
What if, knowledge that we learned, idea that pops in our mind is bits and bytes that floats in the "air" carried by a "carrier", that can only be received by a certain state of mind?
What if, this bits and bytes, carried by a carrier, in form that we may yet to discover that connects human mind and is influence by all that there was, all that there is and all that will be?

What if, in the grand of "things" that is known to human today, i.e. the planets, the universe, the solar system, has a way of connecting/influencing human mind, by that carrier wave/energy, able to cause mass sentiment net behavior?
What if the planets of our solar system, dances around the sun, position in such a way, not unlike our four fingers on a guitar chord, when sync in harmony, create a frequency wave that create sound we call music?

What if these combinations of planets, position, distance, reflective angle of energy from the sun are able to create a harmonious wave that is able to influence and create a net human mood that we term as bullish, bearish etc...
What if we are able to find that music note and able to forecast the human mood?

So this is what I want to find out. In the primitive mind of mine, I may fail but stubborn as a mule, I will try.

My reply:
I think you're on to something. Very cool stuff. These "notes" are what I believe I am measuring, or at least measuring a reflection of in the work I do. When I tell people that my team forecasted a N.E. Japan event a few weeks before Fukishima happened they ask, how does our internet searches or social mood, etc. cause an earthquake? They miss the point, but I believe you are on to it. There is one grand song playing and it shows up in me and you and our trading and in earthquakes and tornadoes. I'm sticking a probe in internet search trends because it gives me a good picture of some of the notes playing. This song plays out in what we are interested in and searching on the internet first, it plays out in what the market does a bit later, and in the news slightly after that. I don't know why, but that allows us to listen to the song somewhere that plays earlier, and get an idea of how that will look when it plays out in something else later.

I think the main reason I do what I am doing is that I want to find a way to undeniably demonstrate that there is rhyme and reason to the universe, that there is connection, and that we are all a part of the one Song.

Thanks for the opportunity to share.

U.S. Terrorist Alert through October 12, 2017

2017-09-30T21:59:00.000-05:00

Analysis of internet search trend patterns show a high risk of increased terrorist activity through October 12. Geographical analysis indicates the highest probability within the U.S. is in the area surrounding Denver, Co. I hope I have your attention, as an alert such as this is not given lightly. Let me explain how this is arrived at.

Research spanning two decades shows that daily internet search trends can indicate changes in markets as well as alert to categories of upcoming news events several days before they occur. Likewise, weekly trends can be used to show changes in markets and categories of news events several weeks before they occur. Because we are looking at U.S. trends here, it will reflect U.S. and world events which have an emotional impact on people in the United States.

During the time of the source data for this alert, the iPhone 8 and X were announced, Hurricane Irma was completing its run of destruction, and NFL pro football season was beginning. To convert what we were collectively focusing on at that time into numbers that can be analyzed, we start out with translating the search trends into themes. For the period in question, this was technology, business, wind, rain, nature, uncertainty, death, men, and sports. This is then converted into relative intensities of what we call four primary mood qualities: Vulnerable, Expansive, Manic, and Controlled.

The chart below may look like colorful spaghetti, but it gives us a great deal of information on when certain types of events are more likely to occur. The specific configuration that is showing up for the week ahead (the orange Manic line on top, and the gray Controlled line on the bottom) has occurred only one other time this past year (week ending 5/19). This pattern indicates societal disruption. When it shows up on a daily scale, it is usually associated with protests or strikes, but can also be associated with "random violence" and increased terrorist activity. When it shows up on a weekly scale, it almost always is associated with increased terrorist activity. The terrorist attack at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, England occurred on May 22. While the timing of market reactions is much more precise, it’s not uncommon for news events to slightly lag behind the mood pattern.

If one looks closely at the above chart, it can be seen that the week of 5/19 and the upcoming week ending 10/6 occur in the area marked “Mood/Effect Inversion.” The “normal” configuration, the gray Controlled line on top and the orange Manic line on the bottom occurred once this year for the week ending 6/9. On June 14, a group of Republican lawmakers were attacked by a gunman at a baseball field in Virginia.

Analyzing the geographic distribution of our search trend data, we produced the map below. The black area marked “destructive” is significant, but it is not clear what this is referring to. It could be pointing to California, or to something in Mexico or Central America that is serious enough to impact (on an emotional level) people in the United States. There is nothing to do with this other than wait and see what it might be about. However, the orange circle very close to the Denver, Colorado area is quite specific. It’s of the type we are on the lookout for (disruptive) and it’s pointing to a very specific area. While this does not imply that we are certain that a terrorist attack will occur in the Denver area by October 12, it does mean that during a period where increased terrorist activity is likely, that the highest probability for such an event to occur within the U.S. is near Denver, Colorado. It’s also important to note that we have not yet completed the map for October 8-15 which could provide us with further insight.

---
Update Oct. 2, 2017: So far there have been a mass shooting in Las Vegas, terrorist attacks in France and Canada, and violent protests in Catalonia, and the week has just begun. It's possible that the MoodMap was off and there will be no Denver event. Perhaps Las Vegas was it. Let's hope and pray that there is nothing more!

Because this science is in its infancy, we are still learning how to read the MoodMaps. At times what appears to be multiple events, is actually one event at the center which combines the qualities of all the "pieces." When the Disruptive component and the Destructive component are taken as one event, it can be seen in the map below that Las Vegas is right in the center. Surely that event was both destructive and disruptive.

North Korea Explodes: WorldMood 30 July – 13 August, 2017

2017-07-29T21:41:00.000-05:00

The North Korea situation is going to get worse before it gets better. That is what our latest WorldMood map is implying. Our previous map, which covered July 17-31, 2017 indicated a “volatile” North Korea. On July 28, there was news of a new missile launch. There may be a different response this time from what has been the status quo. The latest map (below) paints the entire East Asia region red.

For the next week or two, a region which includes North and South Korea, Japan, and China is likely to be in the news quite a bit. While it’s possible that there could be several different volatile circumstances developing in China, Japan, and Korea, the simplest way to view this from current information would be that the instability of the North Korea situation is likely to expand and become quite heated in the near term. Other areas that stand out from a “background normal” in the coming two weeks are Somalia aggressiveness and a destructive theme in West Africa.

What is the source of this information? From research that spans two decades, we take internet search trend data and translate that to near future social mood. This is analyzed geographically to produce a MoodMap.

- - - -
Update July 18. 2017
Item #2: Russia Threatens Retaliatory Measures over Seized U.S. Mansions

Update July 28, 2017
Russia "asserts their position" with a sanctions retaliation. N. Korea "returns to the headlines" escalating that situation with a missile launch. The WorldMood map for the next two weeks (will post soon) implies an extremely volatile situation in the region of North and South Korea, Japan and China. My guess is that this thing gets more intense over the next few days.

Update July 30, 2017
Last day of this map Russia cuts size of U.S. diplomatic mission.

WorldMood July 17-31, 2017

2017-07-15T21:48:00.000-05:00

Last week, the region including Turkey, Syria, and Iraq was highlighted as an area that could receive additional attention for destruction or destructiveness. Early in the week, rubble, destruction, and bodies were in the news coverage of the area even as victory was being declared by Iraq over ISIS and a ceasefire was announced for Syria. On July 4, N. Korea launched a ballistic missile, yet the timing we had been using for our maps showed an "explosive" N. Korea situation for the week following the launch. While tensions were elevated and news coverage of the ICBM launch was in the news early in the week, we have decided that it's necessary to expand the timing of our map coverage to two weeks, as the explosive description would have best included the week of the launch.

The map below covers the period approximately July 17-31, 2017. A few areas stand out from "background normal" and are listed below the map. What's our source of information? Over a decade of research shows that what we collectively focus on, as seen in our top weekly internet search trends, tends to show up as types of news events a few weeks later. The mood conveyed by the search trends can be quantified and even analyzed geographically.

WorldMood July 17 - 31, 2017:

The few identified global regions for this period that stand out from the background are:

1) N. Korea should return to the headlines over the next two weeks as the situation there becomes heated or volatile.

2) Russia is highlighted as "assertive." Watch for them to flex their muscles or assert their positions over this period.

3) A region in southwestern China is marked "disruptive." This mood configuration often is associated with social disruption (civil unrest, protests, and/or terrorist activity). Because of the particular area highlighted (near the Himalayas), it could also coincide with an earthquake event.

4) Syria and Iraq are marked as "emotional." This is not surprising as there's been so much upheaval there recently. The U.K. is also highlighted as emotional. It's not clear at this time what this might be referring to. In addition to "emotional" this same configuration can be associated with "wet" or lots of rain.

A Less Friendly World: June 5-11, 2017

2017-06-02T21:36:00.000-05:00

Searching the internet for a view of next week’s world (June 5-11, 2017) shows it to be a much less friendly place than it was this past week. How do I find a map of next week’s “world” on the internet? To those familiar with our work, you know that we take top search trends and convert them into four primary mood qualities, which in turn gives us a near future glimpse of likely types of news events and market movement. Doing this for various countries around the world, and processing that with Geographical Information Software allows us to produce a map we call WorldMood (below).

Here are the highlights for next week:

The arrow between Europe and the U.S. that was marked “negotiations” last week, now says “cessation.” There may be previous areas of commerce or communications that are abruptly terminated this week. This could be a fallout from the pullout of the Paris Agreement by the U.S. or from something else.
A possible “hot spot” is where Russia meets the area of Georgia and Azerbaijan.
The Persian Gulf is another potential “hot spot.” Watch for potential disruption or surprises there. Also several countries (Iran, Yemen, Somalia, and Oman) are in the area marked “Disruptive.” This may highlight civil unrest or an uptick in terrorist activity.
China is in an aggressive mood. Hmmm…. There is also a spot of “disruption” in the Sichuan Province area. We’ll keep an eye on that to see what might develop.
The U.K. is in a serious mood. Is this grief from last week's terrorist attacks or is there something even bigger to be somber about?
Kazakhstan is in a serious mood. This may be related to whatever is happening with Russia and other areas nearby.

In the midst of a troubled world, may your own world be one of peace in the week ahead.

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Update: June 5, 2017
Wow! The Persian Gulf Crisis showed up on the map BEFORE it happened! https://www.voanews.com/.../saudi-arabia.../3887058.html (See item #3 in the "highlights for next week" list).

Update: June 7, 2017
Jeepers! Another hit on item #3. I thought the idea of a terrorist attack in Iran was a strange idea, but that's what we got! http://time.com/4808655/iran-parliament-attack-shooting/

WorldMood... Coming Soon

2017-05-21T21:33:00.000-05:00

This is a celebration of the return to a project that had to be put aside in 2012. Previous events that were detected using the WorldMood methodology (aka MoodCompass) include the Arab Spring uprising, the Fukishima event (see TV news video), and a Persian Gulf blockade attempt by Iran.
What is WorldMood? Similar to what is done each day to obtain U.S. mood and market forecasts, top internet search trends from a sampling of countries around the world are being gathered by our MarketMood.net team and processed by geographic analysis software. We currently have enough data to begin a weekly look at the mood of the world on a country by country basis. When looking at weekly scale data (as opposed to monthly) it's difficult, for instance, to tell if an "aggressive" country implies that they are likely to start dropping bombs that week, but it does tell us that there is an elevated risk of a geopolitical escalation from other weeks. We anticipate monthly scale analysis in the early fall. With both weekly and monthly analysis, we will have an even better picture of significant changes to watch for.

In the meantime, I hope you enjoy weekly WorldMood profiles. The first one will be out in a few days!!!

The Mood Pattern of Terror

2016-06-26T02:29:00.001-05:00

There is an identifiable social mood pattern that is associated with social disruption. The types of events included in social disruption are protests, strikes, riots, “random” mass violence, and terrorist activity. An example of this pattern can be seen below in the monthly mood configuration for June. The basic pattern is high Manic and low Controlled (with mood/effect inverted as it is currently). When the second highest mood quality is Vulnerable, it ends up being more ideological (e.g. protests and strikes). When the second highest quality is Expansive, it tends to be more violent.

Time scale is important as well. When this pattern shows up on a daily scale, the events that may arise near that date could be of little significance to the general public and may not even make the news. On a weekly scale, something in the socially disruptive category is more likely to show up in the news. On a monthly scale, such as what we have in June, there is almost certainty that a highly significant event or events of this type will be in the news, and will have an emotional impact, at the very least, on the American people (since the measure is U.S. mood).

On June 12th, around 2am, the tragic and unfortunate shooting in Orlando occurred. One can hope that the largest mass shooting in American history would be sufficient to satisfy a monthly scale disruptive mood configuration. Yet, while not a certainty, there is an indication that something else may be next. The exact same social mood pattern for the month of June showed up on a daily scale on June 11th, the day before the Orlando shooting. It shows up again on June 26th (see June daily mood timeline below). While a daily scale configuration is not usually of newsworthy significance, when it matches the larger pattern, it may be an indication of specifically when it may show up as part of the news cycle.

This is not being shared to create fear or terror. It is a reminder to use the due diligence that is always important. That is, staying aware of our environment and looking for unusual activity or behavior in the people around us, and for anything especially out of place. This is especially true for the next couple of days.

Update: 6/26/16 3pm Pacific Time
It's not terrorism, but this certainly fulfills the criteria. Hopefully with no one dying this time: Protesters, white supremacists clash at State Capitol. Officials: 5 people stabbed, 2 critically injured

Update: 6/28/16
No such luck. Terrorism strikes again.
Suicide bombs kills 28, wound dozens at Istanbul airport

U.S. Outlook for August 2015 (video)

2015-07-26T19:55:00.000-05:00

Global uncertainty rises and assumptions are challenged, according to the U.S. social mood "weather forecast" for August 2015. A serious or deadly event on the California coast is also a possibility.

Terrorist Activity Watch: July 7-11, 2015 (video)

2015-07-04T13:13:00.001-05:00

A spike in manic mood often accompanies terrorist activity. U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows climax disruptive mood event(s) in the week ahead. This may include a spike in mayhem, protests, and/or terrorist activity in the news.

Update:

The climax event we were watching for was on 7/16, the shooting in Chattanooga, TN in which 5 servicemen died as well as the gunman. Chattanooga is within the high risk area highlighted by our map, but the event took place a few days outside of our time window.

U.S.: Backlash to Change June 28- July 4, 2015 (video)

2015-06-26T18:17:00.000-05:00

Backlash to the many recent changes in U.S. culture should start to be seen in the week ahead. . U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows Americans less "nice" and more "rowdy."

U.S. Seeking Shelter June 21-27, 2015 (video)

2015-06-19T14:36:00.000-05:00

U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows Americans feeling nervous about events in the world and within the U.S. A BIG week for U.S. people.

Update 6/20/15: In the areas forecasted for this week (beginning Sunday) as likely areas of Manic mood or disruptive events, on Saturday evening two gunmen in unrelated incidents shot at a group of people. One was in Michigan, the west boundary of the area we mentioned, and the other was in Pennsylvania, the east boundary of the region highlighted for this week. While we celebrate that the method we are using is apparently working well, it was disturbing and a bit creepy to get something like this "correct" (even though a few hours outside of our time window).

New Wave of U.S. Unrest: June 14-20, 2015 (video)

2015-06-13T20:31:00.000-05:00

U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows a new wave of protests and manic mood coming to America in the week ahead.

Update 6/17/15: As noted in the video for increased risk of violence on 16th and 17th, and by location highlighting several East Coast states including S. Carolina , 9 dead in S. Carolina shooting at church Bible study class.

Update: 6/20/15: Yes, there was a new wave of unrest/protests this week. Thousands protest Confederate Flag in South Carolina

U.S. Outlook for June 2015 (from Social Mood data)

2015-06-03T23:54:00.000-05:00

June is a turning point for the United States internally and internationally. The chart below is the overall flow of social mood as projected for June 2015. :

(click to enlarge)

Note to our followers: The addition of geographic analysis to our toolkit allows us greater precision than ever before in next-month future forecasting. Follow along with the news-flo this month and see how well we did translating social mood data into future headlines.

Week 1 (through June 6): Mild and ongoing economic concerns are present, but a major U.S. economic event is unlikely. Most of the stimulus for economic issues likely come from outside the U.S. (Greece?).

Week 2 (through June 13): There may be residual economic concerns from any events of the first week of June, but they should dissipate during this period. Any stimulus for new economic concerns should primarily come from outside the U.S. Watch for a significant development in U.S. – China relations near June 11.

Week 3 (through June 20): There is a moderate risk of civil unrest or disruptive event(s) during this period (see map below). The region at highest risk is the Eastern States, but there is an elevated risk throughout the country. Manic mood may also show up financially as rising indicators of inflation.

(click map to enlarge)

Week 4 (through June 27): The outlook of Americans should begin to take a more serious tone this week. The region North of Texas has the highest projection of this mood factor during this period (see map below, left). However, this central location may also be indicative of a national shift. A new wave of economic concerns and domestic issues are starting to take hold in the U.S. There is a moderate risk of civil unrest or disruptive event(s) during this period, possibly expanding or continuing from last week (see map below, right). The region at highest risk is near Michigan and Ohio, but an elevated risk remains throughout the country. Manic mood may also show up financially as rising indicators of inflation.

(click maps to enlarge)

Week 5 (through July 4): The outlook of Americans should become much more serious in tone this week, expanding from last week (see map below, left). The "heartland" of America has the highest projection of this mood factor during this period. Economic concerns and domestic issues are growing and are likely a strong focus of politicians in Washington D.C. and traders on Wall Street as this mood factor is elevated in both D.C. and New York City (see map below, right). These issues are not necessarily limited to those areas.

(click maps to enlarge)

U.S. China relations for June 2015 (based on projected Social Mood data)

2015-06-02T01:22:00.000-05:00

Continuing our cutting edge work in near-future event forecasting, we present a narrative for the upcoming month's U.S. - China relations. Changing views by the world of the United States and China follow patterns that are projected forward one month. The data is analyzed and coded into archetypal categories. This forms the basis for the narrative. Follow the news flow this month and we'll see how close we got to calling the pattern on this one!

Summary: Near June 11, watch for a significant new development in U.S. - China relations. The U.S. has the intention of keeping China "in line." However, China may strategically play this to come out ahead. Near June 18, China takes a more aggressive stance or tone.

(click on maps below to enlarge)

Unexpected Explosions of Violence

2015-04-23T21:17:00.001-05:00

Violent explosion! I read those words a few days ago in conjunction with the unexpected eruption of a volcano in Chile. It made me wonder what was about to happen next. Unlike many, I do not believe this is an isolated incident, nor is it “random.” It is part of an overall pattern in play right now (MoodCompass Type: SSE). This is Nature’s expression of it for the moment. This same pattern in the human world can look like sudden geopolitical escalation, violent protests, or even terrorist activity. In the markets it often goes with sudden spikes in the price of oil and gasoline. There was a violent explosion with an unexpected twist in the news today -- two hostages were inadvertently killed in a drone strike, albeit last January.

Expect the unexpected in world news over the next week or two. Expect surprising explosive events or violence with an unexpected twist. Personally, I recommend you do what you can to keep your world calm and centered. Things will likely get worked out one way or another on the global scene so that “business as usual” may prevail. There is quite an investment in the status quo, and for now, keeping it in tact is strong motivation for world leaders. So, whatever volcanoes, skirmishes, or other unexpected explosions appear over the next week or two, do your best to stay cool!

Stormy Emotions Ahead: Oct. 6-7, 2013

2013-10-05T13:24:00.000-05:00

Tropical storm Karen is supposed to make landfall along the Gulf Coast on Sunday and bring heavy rain. Metaphysically, heavy rain symbolizes strong emotions and possibly panic. One can wonder what stormy, strong emotions will be expressed by people that we might read about in the news on Sunday or Monday. On the plus side, Karen appears to be weakening some. That could manifest in any potential panic being minimal.

For Hawaii's weather, we are supposed to have heavy rain and thunderstorms here on Sunday and Monday also. Something sure seems to be resonating with that note in the weather. I wonder how this might show up in people-news? I will be taking extra time to meditate and take deep breaths during the day. You may wish to bring in whatever techniques you use to stay centered and grounded.

Aloha,
Dr. Cari Bourette

For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Collective Mood, Global Events, and the Stock Market

2013-08-18T21:29:00.000-05:00

I am starting a new blog just for people interested in social mood's tie-in with world events and the stock market. That way I can discuss those things with people interested in that, and continue to redevelop this blog with a different focus.

If you are interested, it is at http://moodcompass-world.blogspot.com

Best regards,

Dr. Cari Bourette
Director,
The MoodCompass Project

U.S. Disaster Could be Imminent, August 9, 2013

2013-08-09T03:38:00.002-05:00

We have continued to track social mood in the background these past few months, and have had nothing much to say about disasters for some time. However, we have to mention this spike in disaster risk that has been forming over the last few days, and has just turned critical.

According to U.S. social mood factors, the most likely type of disaster is MoodCompass type S SE. For human caused disasters, this corresponds with terrorist attacks, violent protests, riots, and other anti-establishment violence. We are all already aware of a high alert in many of our embassies overseas. For natural disasters, the most likely type would be fires or earthquakes.

According to NOAA, there is no extremely bad weather in the forecast. Yet, globally, there is an extreme risk for a natural disaster on the scale of last year's Superstorm Sandy (worse than that if it happens outside the U.S.) on August 9 (which may also continue over the weekend). The chart that shows the spike in natural disaster risk is below.

Update 8/10/13: The spike was a one day window, apparently we got through OK. However, this indicates that we may be in for a time of increased global crises and both human and natural disasters. Will keep you posted.

The patterns of Nature is the pattern of Self...

2013-07-28T00:11:00.002-05:00

Many people understand that symbols in dreams are often metaphors that may represent past, current or even upcoming events in one's life. They might look up in a dream book an animal or event that occurred in the dream to see what metaphysical or unconscious meaning might be getting expressed by it. Would it be surprising to hear that all events can be seen as metaphors expressing a larger Pattern that includes the news, the weather, and even the events in our lives?

As of this moment, Flossie is a tropical storm a few days away from Hawaii. Its winds are reported to be in the process of weakening. There is a warning that heavy rain and flash flooding are to be expected, and possibly thunderstorms. When I hear news like this, I prepare for the physical storm, but also look at the metaphysical symbols in the event. Here is some of what I see in the meaning of Flossie for the world and how I might apply it personally:

1) A storm is approaching, but it's not the most ferocious of storms. Major storms showing up in one area, often are accompanied by news events of "storminess," (e.g. unrest, market volatility, violence, natural disasters). Watch for these symptoms of storminess in the world news this coming week. Whatever happens could be expected to bring change, but will not likely be in the "worst ever" category of destruction.

2) Expect heavy rain and flash flooding. Rain and flooding are metaphysically associated with intense emotions, passion, actions motivated by heart-felt beliefs or inner sense of rightness, and occasionally panic. In the coming week, watch for world news about high emotions, people expressing passion about what is "right," and a possible increase in expressions of prejudice. Overall, people should be tending toward making decisions based on emotions or beliefs, and less on facts or rational process.

Applying Flossie personally: A storm accompanies change. Is there a change in my life I have been waiting for? Have I felt stuck in a situation? The unsettled nature of storminess makes changes more likely to occur. What about the heavy rains? Am I prepared for a period of increased passion and flow of emotion? Am I prepared to channel this emotional energy in a positive direction?

All of these associations are only meaningful in a world in which everything is connected and somehow resonating together. If you are able to look at it this way, this type of metaphorical approach to events might work for you.

Aloha,
Dr. Cari Bourette

Out with the Old...

2013-06-22T09:42:00.000-05:00

Our world is about to change at a pace that has never been seen before in all of human history. A paradigm shift has begun. For many it will be painful, for some it will be exhilarating. The extent of our turmoil may be measured by the persistence with which we cling to the pursuit of how it's always been or to our old ideas of how things should be. Adaptability and flexibility are key virtues that will get each of us through the days ahead. Cooperation and community will be hallmarks of success.

The work that MoodCompass has done in tracking disasters has been successful. We have learned that it can be done, and have demonstrated that there is connection between ourselves and our world. However, because of where we are at in history, it does not make sense to continue to focus on disasters at this point. There's a good chance that people will find all the disaster-type events they hear about in the news in the coming years to be overwhelming, or at least something to tune out and turn away from. We need to find a different focus, and are trying to figure out right now what that might be.

We have discontinued our tracking of social mood's connection with the stock market as well. The market will be quickly on its way to irrelevancy in the months ahead, as it already is for most people now.

Transformation is magical. It can be frightening when it happens to us and our world. Yet, as we let go of what we have clung to, either by choice or by force, we make room for something unexpected and potentially beautiful. That is our hope for the world, now, and in the years ahead.

Weather, Volatility, and Society -- Coincidence?

2013-06-11T06:23:00.000-05:00

The National Weather Service on Tuesday is expecting a ramping up of severe weather this week:

"Severe thunderstorms will be possible farther east as the week progresses due to a very unsettled weather pattern."

We have many times presented natural event outlooks based on social mood patterns. This time we will present the same concept from the other side. We have seen evidence over and over of a connection between weather, people, and events in general. Given this weather forecast, watch for an increase in "unsettled" people. If the pattern plays out as the Weather Service suspects, look for an increase in global stories about protests, riots, violence, market volatility, and natural events such as storms, earthquakes, and fires.

Are we saying that the weather causes people's moods? Are we saying people cause the weather? Are we saying that U.S. weather causes global events? Not exactly. We are saying that there is a connection. They are interdependent. People and the events in the world are interdependent. Let's watch this "very unsettled pattern" in our world this week and see how many faces it ends up displaying.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 6/13/2013:
Storm was not as bad as feared, so we would expect world news of this energy type to be unsettling, but not as destructive as it could have been.

Headlines June 13-15, 2013:
Most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history
Dozens hurt in explosion at Louisiana chemical plant
1 dead, others hurt in new explosion in Louisiana
Turkey's protest situation critical
Stocks close out a volatile week
Thousands take to streets of Istanbul
Earthquake hits southern Mexico

Stopping Disaster

2013-06-09T08:40:00.000-05:00

On June 2, we posted a warning of being in the Global Disaster Zone through June 10. Then an amazing thing happened. The following day, we moved out of the "zone." Is that a coincidence? Did the few hundred people who read the post respond in a way that a global disaster was prevented or delayed? There's no way to know for sure whether a thing would have happened. Today, the risk once again nears the critical zone. Is there a way to stop or delay disaster? Is it possible to repeat what happened after the June 2 post?

On the right side of the chart below, it can be seen that as of the 1st post, collective mood was just entering the "Global Disaster Zone," and then promptly left it as the blue line moved down the following day. It began moving up again on Friday, June 7, which also meant an increasing risk of disaster type events. While not large enough to be considered a disaster, a tragic event occurred, a mass shooting at Santa Monica College in California. As of today, the disaster zone is getting quite near again. What will happen this time?

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

In the Global Disaster Zone

2013-06-02T13:40:00.000-05:00

The last time collective mood was in the Global Disaster Zone, there were the violent storms in the U.S. called Walda followed by the Boston Marathon event, the West Texas fertilizer plant explosion, and then devastating earthquakes in Iran and China. Before that was a superstorm called Sandy. What will happen this time?

Collective mood cycles from extreme disconnection from the events happening in the world around us (the news) to a reconciliation where we "wake up" to events that grab our attention or impact us at a deep emotional level. Like a rubber band being stretched and released, the farther we go during the disconnection phase, the more impactful the reconciliation tends to be.

At the place we are in for about the next ten days, global disasters are more likely than not. And because the source of this data is U.S. mood, it indicates when events especially impactful to people in the United States should occur.

The themes of events likely to occur at the hands of human beings are organized or directed violence and the experience of victimization or vulnerability. This could also show up as social instability (e.g. angry protests) or market volatility (violent market moves). Events likely to occur in Nature should reflect themes of fire and/or flood (e.g. volcanoes, violent storms, and possibly earthquakes). There is also a background natural theme of epidemic, health, and mortality.

There are more details on the likely disasters in the previous two posts, so let's not belabor that here. When disasters affect us personally they are tragic, but the point of this is not that we are all doomed. The point is how amazing it is that our world is connected to us and we are to it. Disasters are a built in way to get our attention and remind us that we have become disconnected again. When the rubber band gets pulled to these extremes and released, we all get relatively more connected for a moment. It would be a really cool thing if there was a time in our not too distant future that we could remind ourselves somehow before the disconnection was so great as to put these things in motion.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .
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Update:
6/7/13: Santa Monica College Shooting leaves seven dead

Weather, Violence, and Americans

2013-05-30T16:14:00.001-05:00

The way we collectively feel (social mood) goes through cycles relative to the news, or the events from "out there" that happen to us. Sometimes we are really disconnected from the news and the events in it seem really severe compared to our lives and the world we experience. The cycle then moves toward a place of reconnection where how we feel reflects what is happening in the world around us and the events that occur likewise resonate with how we have been feeling.

We are entering that reconnection phase right now, and for the next week or so, the mood we are in collectively and the events we read about in our world will be in sync. This is true not just for events about people, but all events. If we are collectively content, the weather will be generally pleasant, and there won't be a lot of horrible stories of people hurting people in the news. However, if we are collectively agitated, we will hear of stories of agitated people striking out in random ways and of unstable, agitated weather creating havoc in people's lives. If we are collectively ready to charge ahead in pursuit of our goals no matter who gets in the way (as the mood is reflecting), we may hear stories of organized violence, terrorist attacks or geopolitical escalation (increased war risk and/or carnage). The way this primarily shows up in Nature is violent weather, floods, and volcanoes. With the current pattern, earthquakes and fires would also not be uncommon.

If during these periods, social mood, the stories of people in the news, and the events of Nature are all closely related; and if none of these are the primary cause of the other, but all reflecting one interconnected expression; then by changing one, the others would change. Even if we can change none of these directly, we can perhaps change ourselves. For those of us wanting to participate, we can look at how we are pushing to move forward in our own lives. Being ready to charge ahead is great, there is nothing wrong with a burst of directed action. However, without understanding, communication or connection of some type with who or what we might be pushing aside or running over, this can become destructive. The challenge for those who want to try this, is to find this balance in yourself, at least through mid-June. See if the days you find this balance don't happen to be the days absent of stormy weather and angry or violent news stories.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .