Panthers rumors, news, and speculation

Lotuleilei, Kugbila Signed

2013-05-23T08:35:00.001-07:00

Carolina grabbed plenty of size in the 2013 draft, and now it's signed.
1st rounder Star Lotuleilei and 4th rounder Ed Kugbila join Kawann
Short, signed yesterday. The other two picks are expected to sign soon.

Carolina also added LB Logan Lau, and waived TE Logan Brock, a very
minor tweak at the back end of the roster.

Kawann Short Signed

2013-05-22T11:17:00.001-07:00

Draft pick signings are now more routine, and early, than they were
before the new CBA was signed in 2011. So, it's tough to treat them as
terribly newsworthy.

There's nothing actually happening lately, however. So DT Kawann
Short, Carolina's 2nd round (44th overall) pick, is signed. Short is
the first of the 2013 draft class to sign. None are expected to be that
far off, however, and most will likely sign over the next week with
organized team activities coming up.

In the past, draftees would work through minicamps, and wouldn't worry
about contracts until training camp. If a pick made it to time for
camp, however, and there was no contract, that was generally a holdout.
Carolina's last real holdout was Jon Beason in 2007.

It's assumed that Short, likely to start out as a reserve but liberally
used next to fellow rookie Star Lotuleilei and vet Dwan Edwards, will
become a starter within the next season or two next to Lotuleilei.

Short will have a very similar structure to 2012's 44 overall, Jeff
Allen; Allen received a 4 year, $4.6 million contract with $1.8 million
in signing bonus.

After taxes and agents, that's likely a million dollars for Short to
play with before he gets his first game check (which even at the
expected minimum around $390,000, means $22,000 per week over the
season), not the worst consolation prize for a player some felt could
have been a first rounder. It's definitely enough to live on, and
enough to take care of those that took care of you.

Aging Names Are Struggling

2013-05-20T08:54:00.001-07:00

It's the end of May, and some big names are out there. Brian Urlacher,
Charles Woodson headlining the all-unsigned team, with plenty others
behind them. As interesting, most of the names that would be on that
list? They've been out there a while.

It used to be that even aging names would find a roster spot, but
players have struggled to find homes. Dwight Freeney gets to keep his
ill-fitting OLB experiment going with the Chargers after a career as a
Colt, merely because of an injury that'll probably cost Melvin Ingram
the ability to achieve his potential. John Abraham continues to be
available. Ed Reed got in with the Texans, though it appears he duped
them about a hip injury he didn't disclose.

Meanwhile, Urlacher, Woodson were avaialble before the draft, and
remain available now, without many suitors. Age and effectiveness play
a part, but it's a pretty widespread situation for the older players.

But even younger offensive linemen are finding it tough to get out
there. Winston Justice might never have earned his pre-draft potential,
but Eric Winston out-played where I figured he'd be, and just last year
had a new deal with the Chiefs. Do the Chiefs need him? Not anymore,
but you'd absolutely imagine that he'd be useful to someone, somewhere.
Likewise, Jets G Brandon Moore is a top notch player, and he'll have to
find some last minute opportunity to be in camp (where he'll inevitably
win a starting job).

For Carolina, only the OL might make sense (and if you had to cut a
Garry Williams to get better depth, so be it). There's room for
improvement and depth, but chances are, it'd only be one guy. There's
no real space for an aging end, and absolutely no room for Urlacher.
Charles Woodson would be useful, but the team has nickel players coming
out of their ears and Woodson's made a living inside lately himself - he
really might be best used in more limited doses, and that does take
safety out of the equation if so.

I don't know how much of that is monetary expectation right now, on the
part of the aging defenders or the younger OL. But, it's time to find a
chair before the music stops.

Draft Picks Signing Soon, Other Changes?

2013-05-17T07:49:00.001-07:00

With the Deangelo Williams re-structure comes additional money. $3.2
million leaves Carolina with an estimated $8.4 million to mess with,
$4.3 million of which will inevitably go to draft picks. The team seems
unlikely to push a lot of money into veterans from here out - the $4.1
million left will not go that far and there's a feeling that the team
will try to carry over to next year as much of that as they can.

But, at the least, there's enough room to sign picks and still have
reserve, a nice luxury compared to where the team started the offseason.
Other teams are signing their picks, with many being nearly done.
Last year's team signed fairly early, too. It's not necessarily a thing
done to prepare for training camp anymore, it's something done as often
while players are at rookie minicamp.

Carolina's rookie camp came and went without much information, and
without those contracts signed. But in general, holdouts are not a
worry in this CBA, and the only sticking point for prospects has been
offset language (rookie contracts are much more guaranteed, offset
language provides partial recovery if let go). So don't worry about
whether Carolina's behind other teams for contracts that will obviously
be signed - it's more that these should happen soon, than worry over
whether they'll happen soon.

The other part that could be found as change? Front office. Dave
Gettleman has made no bones about his want to keep together the staff in
place for Carolina. It appears that front office and scouts are all
more or less safe. Auxiliary guys like Rob Rogers and Brandon Beane
are still around - not that they don't deserve to be - despite having no
real experience outside this team.

All of that said, I'll stand behind my want to emulate more of the
Giants way of doing things, and that it's feasible. Even if you're not
borrowing from Dave Gettleman's last job, I'd want there to be more.
And I've run those ideas nearly into the ground a couple times - I don't
know that Carolina would ever hire a direct metrician like a Director Of
Statistics, and I don't know that an assistant GM is in the cards,
either.

But the team does have room to grow, and now's a great time to get
people. Various staffs are in flux across the league. There are
talented personnel men looking for new opportunities, and others that
have recently been let go of important positions that would look to land
at a lower level that may be willing to take a lower station. It might
be time to grab a former personnel executive and add to the current
staff, for instance. That's not replacing anyone - just adding to it.
I feel like that fits in with the vision Gettleman has. I feel like
that leaves room for the existing staff to continue to produce and
perform.

I'd definitely still be in favor of adding more national college and
pro scouts, and adding a few new positions in the front office in any
form. If that were to happen, now's the time.

Thoughts on Star

2013-05-17T06:43:00.001-07:00

Doing my best to not throw Star-related puns. I know that will
inevitably be a part of discussing the 2013 #1 pick, and won't get any
better if he lives up to his expectations (and I expect he will).

I was thinking about various post-draft analyses about Star. I don't
remember thinking before the draft that Star was a NT - I saw him as a
guy who could play the spot, unlike Sharrif Floyd or Sheldon Richardson
(and baffling enough, the Jets both took Richardson above Star, and are
temporarily content with putting him at NT), but that his value might
still be better at under tackle.

He didn't have the blazing time that Floyd did, but I don't doubt that
he has the athleticism to play the under tackle, or the power and the
moves to be a good rusher. He's definitely a good run defender for
either spot, but I never understood the post-draft want to pigeonhole
him to the 1-technique NT. I believe him very much able to do either.
Maybe I missed the pre-draft noise on him at NT, since I felt confident
he was the best all-around DT (really, the best defender) in the draft.
I didn't read a ton of write-ups on the guy, honestly. He was always a
guy on a wish list, not someone I felt was a realistic option.

So it's hard to say. And, then to solidify it, Kawann Short is clearly
a 3-technique guy. He played some college nose, and him moving around
and playing a ton of snaps didn't help, but he wasn't as good in the
middle. So, transitively, if Short is a longterm 3-tech, and Dwan
Edwards is a longterm 3-tech, Star is obviously the nose. It's a good
combination. But, while it's probably a moot issue and Star probably
plays mostly nose for the forseeable future (a person would hope for
about twelve years worth here out of a talented cornerstone, even though
clearly he's eligible to leave after 5).

So in the end, it doesn't really matter. He's clearly slotted for a
role inside, and I'm not stumping for any change there. Think he'll be
fantastic there, honestly. But, for argument's sake if nothing else,
I'll say that I would've been just as happy with a NT pick next to him
as I would've Short (and an OL ahead of either, but that's a whole
separate ideal). It's that Star can play the under, and occasionally
should, more than anything.

But, worse problems to have than to have a versatile, hopefully
impactful, NT that can do more than just make things happen against the
run. Wish we had problems of that level everywhere.

Deangelo Williams Restructures

2013-05-15T06:49:00.001-07:00

This one comes oddly sourced, from yahoo's Shutdown Corner. I do trust
the source, and they had a Haruki Nakamura restructure that I'm not sure
some of the local media ever actually covered (or got the cap numbers
correct with).

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/panthers-save-3-2-million-cap-space-restructuring-121345904.html

The full numbers are in the link, I won't bore you with them myself.
The gist of it - he took a small cut (lopping off $100,000 worth of
workout bonus), took most of his salary and put it into signing bonus to
spread $4 million across the next five years.

The more important part is that while he earns his 2013 in full thanks
to the signing bonus, 2014 and 2015 have greatly reduced salaries. The
workout bonuses continued to be lessened, and there's a total of $8
million in salary savings over those two years. So for $4 million this
year they likely would've paid anyway, they get immediate savings now
and future savings that essentially amounts to a paycut. Average of $4
million in '14, '15 to go with the new proration is a net savings of
$3.8 million per year in those years, and $3.2 million this year.

Also, since his deal includes this new Dave Gettleman trick of
automatically voidable years (the years of '16 and '17 void if he's on
the roster at the very end of '15, so barring a renegotiation it gives
an end date to Williams' tenure here. It would still be somewhat tough
to cut Williams after "14, but even then, the natural age-out after '15
will cost them nearly $3 million. Williams, who just turned 30 two
weeks ago, would be 32 at that point.

Carolina drafted RB Kenjon Barner in the 6th round, and there had been
speculation about Williams being a June 1 cut (moving the rest of his
cap hit to 2014). Now, that's highly unlikely he'll be cut. It does
create a potential concern on dropping a draft pick on a 3rd (or 4th
depending on Mike Tolbert) RB that might handle returns in '14 if Ted
Ginn is gone, but otherwise might have a continued issue getting
carries.

So what does Carolina need extra money for?

Hard to say. I believe they're shorter than what they needed for draft
picks, but a quick bit of work on a napkin suggests they'll have a
little left over. $3.2 million covers most of what draft picks will
cost, which I estimated at around $4.3 million.

With OTs like Max Starks and Winston Justice out there, and fantastic
guard Brandon Moore still waiting for a deal, eventually one of them may
decide they want to play rather than sit and wait for a payday they're
not likely going to get at this point. That could fill a short term
hole on the OL, which wasn't really filled to completion in my opinion
in the draft. Ed Kugbila might be able to contribute, or might not, but
the team didn't improve competition or talent at OT. If Kugbila isn't
ready, which isn't a stretch for a guy from that small a school, there's
no real change on the OL excluding Ryan Kalil returning.

Bottom Roster, New CBA

2013-05-15T05:44:00.001-07:00

Dave Gettleman's talked at length about the bottom half of the roster -
and there might be something to that. Suggesting the team had its
necessary stars but had to build depth, he's worked on that in many
places. Whether it ends up working is harder to say.

But the bottom of the roster is so much more competitive than in the
old CBA. Used to be, if you were a draft pick, you were in for a
couple years, and not necessarily at this point. Your undrafteds
generally got a full camp to learn and work in the past, but Carolina's
already cut three. Workout players - guys who at least have a full
camp on their hands already, and time to learn from their mistakes -
come in, get to be side by side with the youth. And then they might get
your spot instead.

The days of being signed in May meaning you'd make it to August with a
chance of September? They're gone. The 54th man on the roster still
has a better shot than the 90th man, that won't change. But it feels
like from 65-90, those players are suddenly a lot more disposable.

The upside is, more players will get a chance. But you've gotta be
ready, there's not a lot of room for adjustment anymore, learning. Even
then, it's hard to say.

Keiser, 4 Others Cut

2013-05-13T13:22:00.001-07:00

DE Thomas Keiser, a 2011 surprise after the draft, has been let go,
along with 2011 6th round pick Zack Williams, and undrafted rookies
Damario Jeffery, Taylor Cook and Trey Diller.

Keiser's '11 started on the practice squad, but had him notching 4
sacks and an INT during that season. As the team kept stocking ends and
Greg Hardy grew (potentially and literally), Keiser's already topped out
ability kept sliding.

Zack Williams was an early scratch based on injury, hurting himself
early into 2011 training camp. Carolina had still never really seen
much of what he had been able to provide, and now cut ties.

The other three were post-draft additions that apparently didn't have a
good enough rookie camp. Carolina has the option of signing some of
the tryout players that were brought in, at a similar cost.

2014, Draft

2013-05-08T07:43:00.001-07:00

It's early to focus on 2014, I know. But, one part of scouting starts
now - the next guys. Right now, scouts are ID'ing the guys moving
around, the guys who showed some promise next year, and looking hard at
building new files, especially on rising juniors and seniors.

And, sometimes this stuff pays off a year ahead. Some forgotten guys
who stayed in can come back and be interesting again. 2012 saw Star
Lotuleilei stay, to my disappointment. Now, a year later, he's a
keystone piece to what should be a strong Panthers defense.

It's obviously going to be tough to completely project what will happen
from here - whether Ron Rivera is the coach, whether Dave Gettleman is
cleaned out in the process, what the team will look like if there's
regime change and what schemes if so). There aren't a lot of FAs, but
my self-referenced 2014 guide to cuttable players might give an idea for
what might be gone.

Clearly, '14 is the Jadaveon Clowney sweepstakes at this point. Yes,
he's done plenty outside of the often Youtube/gif'd tackle for loss
against Michigan. For Carolina, it might be more contingency on the
Greg Hardy contract issue. Clowney is a leaner RDE, and an upgrade,
whereas there will not be many players in the draft that are better.
Even without Hardy, this is a lesser need compared to others, but gets
mention because he's legitimately a fantastic player. It would take
absolute failure for this to happen (Rivera could go .500 and be fired,
possibly) and the team would stay a 4-3 team (they have a LOT of
flexibility to go 3-4 with their newfound strength and versatility
inside).

If they went 3-4, just to continue the thought, Anthony Barr from UCLA
appears to be the top rush OLB. Carolina doesn't have anyone that fits
the profile, and the 235 lb Barr may be a little light, but has been
nearly dominant recently. That said, there are also a ton of DEs
currently rated high for '14 that are in the 250-260 range. Even
without Hardy (if that did happen), Carolina could easily fill inside in
a 3-4 without a lot of adjustment - merely new depth. They would
definitely need a good rush OLB, and the potential cuts at LB would make
a 3-4 easier.

Currently, the biggest worry for now and '14 for me is OL. By '14,
Byron Bell is in year 3. Some say that Jordan Gross' contract voids FOR
'14, but I read it as it voids in '14 but he still has a contract for
that year. The team has some young guards that hopefully work out, but
the best case scenario is that the two starting tackles are on one year
deals. And, it's not an exceptionally strong group right now.

That's where Taylor Lewan comes in. The 6'8, 300 lb Michigan product
has to go through the prodding of next offseason, where he'll have to
show he has strength and can fill into that tall frame. But he'll be a
four year starter by then, and the top prospect on the OL. It's not as
deep a draft as '13 for OL - that will be rare for a long time - but
Jake Matthews of Tx A&M is right up there with Lewan. You could also
argue that Cyrus Kouandijo of Alabama could be the best of the three,
but will only have 2 years at LT. Matthews will be moving to LT to
replace Luke Joeckel as well. So there's a lot of room for growth for
both players, and I'm subjectively putting Lewan as a higher prospect
only because of the stability.

Plenty of people put worry into WR, and it's hard not to see an
opening. With 4 vets on staff for '13, the team will keep - at most - 2
young guys out of the 4 other draftees. With that one or two young guys
having shown little and being the 5th best/possibly inactive 6th guy,
that leaves no future. Brandon Lafell, Domenik Hixon, and Ted Ginn will
all be free agents.

So if it's Steve Smith and nothing, you never know. A WR pick might
make sense, if other needs are covered (seeing Dave Gettleman cover all
the bases at WR this year on the cheap makes me think that may happen
again next year, and could be effective). Or they could break the bank
on Hakeem Nicks, you never know. If not, Marquis Lee (USC) or Sammy
Watkins (Clemson) are intriguing. Both are juniors, though.

Corner follows like WR in its absolute finality. A bigger weakness
than WR, it also boasts no one under contract after this year past Josh
Norman, who might not start in all this competition. To make matters
worse in the secondary, only Charles Godfrey is under wraps for '14 at
safety and he's cuttable. Safeties tend more toward roleplayers in my
opinion under the current leadership, but corners can be expensive.
Junior Bradley Roby (OSU) seems like a consensus top choice, but it's
pretty muddy behind it. There are a lot of juniors, and not a lot of
size - Ron Rivera likes taller, lankier corners and so far, nothing.
Deion Blue is the most recent Alabama prospect, but doesn't have the
size of the last few #1 picks.

Robert Lester - Intriguing UDFA

2013-05-06T10:29:00.001-07:00

SS Robert Lester wasn't exactly who I had in mind when I've pined over
a ton of Alabama players over the last two years. The Tide have put two
CB, a S, two RB, two LB, and two OL in the top two rounds of the last
two drafts. I personally thought that DT Jesse Williams and G/C Barrett
Jones, two very highly touted alumni, would've been targets at 44 for
Carolina, but both went on the third day.

Lester wasn't as highly rated, but most figured him to be drafted.
When he wasn't, he came to Carolina; it's a nice coincidence that one of
the team's bigger needs after the draft ended came with their highest
rated UDFA. A 6'1, 220 lb SS, Lester's major knock is speed - he's
clocked at 4.66, a tick slow from ideal. I imagine at his size,
dropping 10 lb wouldn't help. So, he'll have to show that he can be
instinctive enough to make up the difference.

SS is a job up for grabs; Mike Mitchell, a UFA signing from the
Raiders, doesn't have a lot of experience and has a similar body to
Lester. Haruki Nakamura isn't apparently in play for the job, and 2012
7th rounder DJ Campbell was the last guy to have the job, closing out
the year. So there's room, if Lester can show some special teams
ability and the ballhawking that let him pick off 8 passes in 2010.

If not, by 2014, Lester might be a fun project at WLB. If he were to
add some bulk, I don't think anyone would complain about a 4.65 40 in a
6'1, 230lb weakside linebacker, either.

Front Office Changes/Additions?

2013-05-02T06:07:00.001-07:00

Now that the draft is done, it's technically the start of the scouting
year. While GMs are most often hired in January, a lot of staff changes
happen now - May.

New GM Dave Gettleman is a pretty open guy (as is coach Ron Rivera),
but the team in general remains a pretty limited vessel of information.
So, I don't expect much info on anything, even if a lot did happen.
It's actually quite tough to even access a full list of scouting for the
Panthers, and it's certainly not on their website. A look from a
magazine I saw in the offseason did suggest more scouts than I expected,
but absolutely nothing on the level that the Giants have.

Gettleman has said that he likes the team he has under him. I don't
think that's changed, so I doubt there will really be firings. But, if
there's ability, I'd look to see some additions.

*I'd specifically see about adding two scouts (assuming it hasn't been
done, with the secrecy) to replace Ken Dorsey, who's moved to the
coaching staff. Dorsey was a pro scout, and replacing him would give
the team four.

*I'd add two more national scouts to the college staff.

*As I said when I last talked organization, I'd add an assistant GM,
though I don't know how likely that is.

*and while it appears that Brandon Beane (administration) and Rob
Rodgers (cap/contracts) have been investing time in new metrics, I'd
definitely hire a full-on Information guy, a sabermetrician to work with
the pro staff. The NY Giants have a guy for that, plucked from
basketball, who does nothing but analysis. Agents and players are
starting to use it - so while it's an effective tool for the field, it's
getting to be a bigger part of the off-field equation as well.

If you've read my past rantings on the front office, I haven't changed
my tune. I'm always for more scouting, more information. So hopefully,
if any changes are made, it's in that direction. And if it's going to
happen, now's the time.

Still A Rush

2013-05-01T11:25:00.001-07:00

My world is as often Bubble Guppies as it is War Eagles on fall
Saturdays anymore. Though football is my only sport, anyone who somehow
dilligently reads this terribly named blog knows I can get deep into the
sport and the team. That time, of course, has gotten more scarce over
the last few years, with the little addition to my own team.

It's tough now. It's hard to say that I had as much time as I wanted
to see prospects with my own eyes. I clearly missed on a couple of guys
that I would've been happy with the Panthers' 2nd, for instance. I had
only really studied one player we ended up with.

But there's no doubt - the draft is as big a rush as ever. No matter
what happens - rumors, players picked right before you, twitter
spoilers* - there's nothing like the rush right before a pick. Almost
infinite possibilities, with a clock running and your team's future in
the balance.

*I personally loved this. I know plenty of people railed against
twitter spoilers of draft picks, but at certain points, twitter was two
picks ahead of TV. I know TV is about production value, but TV's going
to have to stop milking every second out of it.

Now, unlike the last few years, they went with the guy's name I was
screaming at the TV (that, yes, I realize is indifferent to what I'm
saying, and that can't convey that information to anyone who might
care). 2011, 2012, I started out reacting horribly. I didn't want
those players...those players that form a young core of talent and that
are the team's biggest stars. Which hopefully doesn't doom Lotuleilei
- that both I and the team like him. But it goes to show that the rush
is worth the wait, and that if the name you hear isn't your guy, it can
still be allright.

So, I can't imagine a lot of people are unhappy about Lotuleilei, but I
can understand a difference of opinion after that; Short was a
strategic pick, but by definition isn't really a "starter" yet, where
Dave Gettleman promised a pair of those. Eschewing the OL that tended
to be a consensus want after Star, they went for a project in the 4th
that makes a lot of people want to write it off just because Amini
Silatolu's pro tape isn't the same type of Snuff Film type blocking that
it was in DII.

And it's hard to completely argue against people being unhappy with LB
or RB picks on teams that have tons of talent (for now). Fans
definitely see different value, and different necessity, at times.

And that's without going into those nutty fans that were so rabid about
picking a WR in the first 50 (much less the exceptional zeal of those
that wanted two!).

But, you never know. And as much as the rush of the moment around the
pick is important, don't forget that the possibilities don't end there.

Draft Philosophy: 2013

2013-04-29T12:40:00.001-07:00

It's clear Carolina added beef, and needed to do so.

I admit I'm still a little surprised at the duo of DTs. I like it -
but it's not what I would have done. Various things are in play there -
one, the idea that Star Lotuleilei is looked at more as a nose tackle,
despite their claims of versatility for both he and Kawann Short. I
believe Lotuleilei was an ideal pick, in that he could fill the
immediate NT need but has the athleticism for both - and that he'd have
been a ridiculously good run stopper at the under tackle, which is
harder to find in a young player (really, in any player).

But, there's a lot of fruit to bear with the duo. Obviously, it builds
on strength on the DL; suddenly, if things go as they should, DT is as
great a strength as DE, if not more. The old adage about not being able
to double everyone is fine, if not a bit unrealistic; most players don't
dominate single blocking that often, and let's face it. Carolina went
through this in 2002-05 in various forms. When you have nearly elite
players across the front four, you dink and dunk on them. You don't let
the rush dominate you. It does provide a schematic and strategic
advantage to know what teams are going to want to do to you, certainly.

But, this should be helpful against the run, too. You have quick first
steps at DT, and guys that stay at home at DE. And, obviously, when you
can't run through the middle (it's a legitimate hope that Lotuleilei
will impact that), your LBs are more effective everywhere. So, dink and
dunk on 2nd after a one yard gain on first, and hopefully you get a
prototypical 3rd and 6. That's when DTs, and not being able to step up
in the pocket, provides dividends.

The OL didn't get quite the same boost, and who knows if Edmund Kugbila
is going to be able to contribute this year. He's there athletically
and physically; I think too much might get made out of his SAT issues.
He wouldn't be the first player to get pushed up the ladder for size by
the biggest schools, and for the first time in his life, someone is
putting scholastic pressure on him. But, chances are, Geoff Hangartner
and a host of other thinner-bodied center types play RG first.

Ideally, I like Kugbila to come into the game in special situations -
short/goal - as a tight end if he's not starting. And it might be a
year before that happens. Unlike Amini Silatolu, a very similar player
overall, Carolina isn't just going to have to plug him in. There's an
incumbent. So maybe they'll get to take their time on this one.

And while the last two picks got pushed between high value players, and
Kentwan Barner should be a beast in 2014 when there's finally room, it's
hard to say that the defense didn't get by far the better toys.
Speaking of room, if there isn't too drastic of regime change, AJ Klein
could be starting in '14 at SLB. There's a good chance that the team
could have to unload one OLB, and if the wrong turns happen, both.
Klein has Luke Kuechly's instincts (allright, almost), and while he'd be
a two-down guy most likely, he could really make things happen next to
Kuechly. If the team went 3-4, Klein makes for a natural ILB there, as
well. That duo, plus the two DTs, would provide an interior quartet
that would be low-cost for years.

Prognosis:
*Carolina should be able to really solidify the A gaps and likely B
gaps as well. There's a strong corrolation between A/B gap run defense
and playoff ability, and a stronger one with playing sound
defense/having a good defensive ranking.

*Carolina may upgrade the pass rush. They were already pretty good,
and Dwan Edwards' sack numbers were somewhat inflated so there's a
modest numerical bump coming that'll likely be more spread around.

*The run game might get a boost from the guard and the back, but let's
wait until '14 to expect much.

*Carolina added good players, moreso than applying too much to need in
any form.

Luckily, Gettleman Doesn't Trade

2013-04-28T20:28:00.000-07:00

I posted the other day that Dave Gettleman was unlikely to trade.

But, some other team didn't get the memo.

Whoever was working the trade phone - something Gettleman has done in the past, and something that he's clear he wasn't doing this weekend, but I'll guess Mark Koncz - relayed that another team called in the 2nd willing to part with the pick - for next year's first rounder.

Let's just say Gettleman wasn't interested. Thankfully. So, for the first year since 2006, Carolina didn't make any draft day trades. It's the first year since 2008 that the team didn't finish the draft without dealing away a future pick. Which is remarkable...both that it didn't happen, gunshy as fans can be about that, and that it happened so consistently on the back nine of the Marty Hurney era here.

Numerology: 2013 Draft

2013-04-28T20:20:00.002-07:00

I noticed this unit has 3 All-Americans - the two DTs and Kenjon Barner. Lotuleilei was the only first teamer.

But, this is more a random look-ahead to what numbers these guys might wear, and it might not be easy.

Lotuleilei wore 92 in college- currently worn by Dwan Edwards. Kawann Short's 93 is Chase Blackburn's (though I doubt anyone's seen him in it, so it won't matter). As a matter of fact, 96 is the only 90s number available. 70, 72, 74 are out there; 70 is the number Ed Kugbila played under.

For LB AJ Klein, 53 and 56 would be available; he played under 47 at Iowa State.

Kenjon Barner's 24 is Josh Norman's.

2013 Draft: Aftermath

2013-04-27T19:50:00.001-07:00

Carolina got bigger, and then at the end, a little smaller.

It was a necessarily utilitarian draft, and that's fine. It was, for the most part, a value draft except for Ed Kugbila (who wasn't really worth a 4th).

But, consequently, it fell with different needs than I might have assumed.

For instance, TE, S, CB were spots I felt could use some help; they were unmet needs. S, CB have bodies, but TE might lack a bit. I felt like an OT with ability would've been smart with things in flux past 2013.

In summary- the team went from one good, aging DT to a three man rotation and a potentially very strong front seven overall. They compromised on the OL to get higher talent at lower top level experience, and then they got two guys who'll probably be ready to play a larger role in 2014.

6th: RB Kenjon Barner

2013-04-27T17:27:00.001-07:00

Carolina didn't require another RB - they have three. But they're all big backs. Finally, Ron Rivera got his Darren Sproles type player.

RB and returner, and sometimes receiver. Barner was a feature player in one of the best college offenses around. The 5'9, 200 lb speedster looks to be best as a complimentary player, with a good change of direction and home run ability.

It's a bizarre pick at first, but it's the ability to add to the offense in the 6th. That's rare this late in the draft. Not all of the current RB will be here in 2014, you have to assume, and at that point, a guy like this could be a lot more valuable.

148: LB AJ Klein

2013-04-27T17:24:00.000-07:00

Versatile LB AJ Klein comes off the board for Carolina in round five.

The instinctive LB has experience at all three spots. The 6'2, 250 lb prospect threw up about 350 tackles in the last three years. He has a nose for the ball, and while he might be a two-down prospect if playing, he's a player who should be productive in the future when given the chance.

It's an odd fit, with the team having LBs for the year. Next year, of course, there could be cap casualties; there are free agents.

Instant Reaction:
I could've taken another OL or a safety here. Carolina isn't drafting for need at this point, not that they ever were; they've chosen to trust their board and build depth. That's what fifth round picks are for.

108. Edmund Kugbila, G, Valdosta State

2013-04-27T10:03:00.000-07:00

3 picks, 936 pounds.

Hog Mollies.

Kugbila is a Ghanan prospect who excelled at the high school level and got commitments from various schools - Vandy, TN, and with interest from Alabama. He couldn't make a high enough SAT to qualify for D1, so he played small school.

He's a big (6'4, 317) but mobile guard (a 5.36 40 betrays his lateral athleticism).

If it sounds like Amini Silatolu, you're 100% right. He doesn't have the snuff-film type game tape that Silatolu did, but he's still a big bully who has good feet, had good workouts, and will probably have to spend some time adding experience.

Instant Reaction:
I wanted Barrett Jones, who would start now. Kugbila should start soon, and will be physically more interesting, but smarts might be an issue.

My only real beef with Kugbila at 108 is value. I don't see that being a great value.

Summary:
Tons of linemen, and I'm OK with that, so far. A trend that only one was American born, but I don't care about that.

108: The 4th, preliminary work

2013-04-27T08:07:00.001-07:00

There will definitely be pressure to add something offensive.

After dropping two DTs in the first two rounds, it will be a tougher argument to supplement the defense again this time.

The biggest need on the depth chart at this point is TE - where the team realistically has two guys (Greg Olsen, and blocker Ben Hartsock, depending on how you feel about sometimes-fullback Richie Brockel). A 2nd TE wouldn't hurt at all. But at 108, a lot of the steam seems to have come out of TE - notably losing Jordan Reed, the smallish Florida product.

What remains? the massive Nick Kasa, a 6'8, 270 lb Colorado guy who's mostly there for size; similarly, the shifty Joseph Fauria from UCLA has a lot of size. Those are my guys, but those aren't necessarily the highest rated guys, either. I don't think great value is there at 108.

The more pressing of the two needs, to me, is OL.

A tackle is almost always better value, and Oday Aboushi from Virginia fits that bill. He's a natural LT, and that might not be the immediate need, but it may allow the team to move some things around long term. David Quesenberry is an athletic guy as well - potentially more athletic. But he's also a guy who could play guard in the meantime, with a good nasty streak and a wide frame.

Barrett Jones isn't just a center. I keep hearing that. He's played LT in the SEC; he's played guard. I like him for verstatility, but he's also a somewhat natural right side player. At this spot, he'd probably find himself starting at RG again. Carolina doesn't really need a center, they need an upgrade on Geoff Hangartner.

The last spot I could see something? Safety. I could see them grabbing a competition player for Mike Mitchell, and the entire secondary is essentially on a one year deal for non-rookies. That includes the very cuttable FS Charles Godfrey. Corners are on one year deals, but at this point it's all competition to stay. S, they've only really brought in one new guy.

So, plenty of options at S right now. Probably through the 5th, too. Zeke Motta is a very interesting football player, who makes some sense to fall since he's not special athletically.
If you can get some of the over-aggression out of him on playaction, Duke Williams is athletically the real deal and has 4 years started at a rising program in Nevada. Phillip Thomas has FS style ballhawking skill as a SS.

End of 2: OL Still There

2013-04-26T17:39:00.000-07:00

Carolina doesn't pick again until 108.

Here's what we know:
*Star Lotuleilei is the nose tackle
*new 2nd round pick Kawann Short is going to rotate in at under tackle and probably rush inside some on nickel

The second round is ending

We're done for the night.
Dave Gettleman stated there would be no trade ups, so Carolina would pick next at 108, at best.

With those two things in mind, there are some positions I'd prefer to take off the board. We don't really need picks at these spots:

*WR - at this point, outside of a falling Keenan Allen, I don't know that there's anyone who'd be more than a body. I don't know that Allen keeps falling.
Whoever would be picked at WR, is at best a 4th guy. That guy would play 100 snaps, maybe catch 10 balls.
*CB - Carolina has bodies here. There shouldn't be starters left.

So that leaves:
*OL - the biggest need, right side players specifically
*S - a negotiable pick, since the Panthers have one starter, and have the other incumbent (Haruki Nakamura) to fight with the new guy (Mike Mitchell).
*TE - the team needs a good 'move' type TE as depth

44: Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

2013-04-26T16:46:00.001-07:00

Carolina eschews the OL for another DT.

Kawann Short is a fairly athletic DT from Purdue: 6'3, 300. He has a good reach (34.7" arms) and ran a solid 5.09 40.

Short was a two year Captain at Purdue, and a 2nd team All American.

He's billed as being a potentially incredible DT, who has an inconsistent motor. Obviously, the Panthers have age concerns on Dwan Edwards, who's 33.

UPSIDE?

Carolina likely won't be run on. They have longterm defensive tackles, assumedly, for the first time in forever. There's contingency in place for Edwards' phasing out.

DOWNSIDE?

There were other DTs I liked more personally (Jesse Williams, who was mostly a NT, but who is athletic), and I preferred an OL by far over another DT at this point.

44 pre-pick

2013-04-26T16:25:00.000-07:00

Warford, Jones, Jonathan Banks would be ideal here. Let's see what happens.

edit - Banks to the Bucs

Philosophy at 44

2013-04-26T10:18:00.001-07:00

I'm overthinking this for the ideal of a pick that still has up to 12
hours to materialize, but the Panthers' 2nd pick, 44th overall, has me
excited. After grabbing Star Lotuleilei, it's that rare feeling that
anything is somewhat possible thanks to the failure of other teams.

So, at 44, I don't think it's a surprise that I'm thinking OL. And
that's where the philosophy comes into play.

In my opinion the choice, should the Panthers have just such a luxury,
would be between UK's Larry Warford and Alabama's Barrett Jones.
Depending on who you ask, Jones isn't rated that high, but he's the
other right guard I'd consider.

Warford is the massive RG you might expect at this level. He's
athletic, but he's a pure drive blocker. Jones, who some say is
limited athletically, is more the zone guy (but still, don't sleep on
his drive).

Jones wasn't too athletically limited to win the Outland as a left
tackle, and if he'd stayed there and not been hurt at center, he'd
probably be off the board. And two of his teammates, DJ Fluker and
Chance Warmack, didn't even make it to Carolina's 14 pick.

I'd be more than happy with either guy. Neither is specifically that
deficient at anything - it's not "draft the massive meathead, or draft
the unathletic smartypants." But it does offer a divining point on
what type lineman you want there, if both are somehow available.

No Trades

2013-04-26T07:06:00.001-07:00

Dave Gettleman often invokes the name of Marty Hurney.

He hasn't demonized his predecessor, and there are times within the
community where that's a rarity.
Because, let's face it, in most ways, Hurney did things in accord with
what the team as a whole wanted.

But the later trades really ran counter to that. So, that part I won't
miss.

Hurney's offseasons generally worked well when the team trusted its
board, and picked right. Case in point, landing the league's most
productive end duo in the 3rd and 6th rounds, respectively. Charles
Johnson and Greg Hardy are working out allright, you might say.

And it was a disaster when Hurney couldn't abide by that board, and
forced his own hand. Same scenario - picked in a year between those two
productive ends above, sending a future 1st for another end, Everette
Brown. Three of the last four future-pick trades have netted nearly
nothing - you have the Jeff Otah trade as the gem of that bunch, though
it's not really Hurney's fault specifically that Otah didn't stay
healthy.

After Armanti Edwards ages out, the team will have only Frank Alexander
to show for all the trading, and if Hardy signs the big deal he should,
Alexander will only be a situational part of the pie.

It doesn't make it any better that it's rumored that Hurney wanted to
trade up for Jimmy Clausen once he made it to the top of the 2nd in
2010. It could've outright killed this franchise, if true.

So, let's hope that Dave Gettleman, who seems to have no part of the
future-pick trading business, sticks to that philosophy. Let's hope he
sticks to his board.