Panthers rumors, news, and speculation

V/S Lions, Aftermath

2026-10-05T21:37:02.324-04:00

That was a hair raiser - and after the fact, maybe a lot of fun, but damn, tense at midnight on a Sunday.

Bryce Young has Tetairoa McMillan and that's about it, but they found ways. I'm so happy to finally see tempo and RPO involved significantly. Young, who could not string two good games together at times, leads the league in yards and scores, and has the franchise mark for the first four games of a season.

I also have absolutely no words for the sheer volume of injuries. Fifth tackle already in, playing the fifth through seventh WR, it's unsustainable to keep losing guys. Thankfully it's a bye, 2-2, nice to rest.

V/S Falcons, Aftermath

2026-09-20T18:55:00.994-04:00

This one had all the traps, but Carolina kept on the gas and finished on the road, 34-3.

Devin Lloyd, for one, had a terrible week last week. He had a generational one this week, 8 tackles, a sack, two picks (one returned for a score). Bobby Okereke had a pick, Zakee Wheatley forced a fumble (his first NFL snap, honestly), and it was embarrassing enough for fill in Falcon QB Cooper Rush to pull him. The Panthers pulled a lot of their vets not long after.

But before that, a little O happened, too. First 30+ pair of games to start the year in franchise history, I think. First 1-1 start in a while too while we're at it (2021). Bryce Young was 23/36 for 267 / 3, two to Darren Waller and once to Chuba Hubbard (combined 3rd on the year), and 204 of those yards were first half, after long hits that included a 55 to Xavier Legette, 5/101 for Tetairoa McMillan, and 8 for 66 for Jalen Coker (who pressed into service on punts, bizarrely, and was great).

Jaelan Phillips notched a sack, as well.

Now it wasn't all perfect and the OL and receivers were hit with plenty of penalties, OL for holding and receivers for procedure. Lots to clean up, you're never as good as your blowout games and never as bad as the ones you take, either.

But this was fun.

V/s Bears, 2026 Kickoff

2026-09-13T10:44:40.226-04:00

I didn't get around to finishing half of what I worked on this week, I didn't even study Chicago hardly. We're at 2026 now, and this team is whatever it's going to be. Maybe there's a sea change if guys get healthy but for now, this is Carolina.

Did they improve? I think. Did they do enough? I think they did as much as they could but the (initially seeming) extra choices on the lines cost at other spots, sure. Those linemen start today and hopefully that's the start of a new, young wave. But, anticipated choices at ILB or S don't have that same young dynamicism (S to be fair, does have some great depth now). In the short term, that means some mercenaries and waiver pickups on the D are going to be ramping up. Long term, the need remains in a lot of places.

That said, we cross over into the season, and build mode is over. For me the fun part is done, and for the players the building part is also done until next year. They are who they are, plus or minus the inevitable healing and injury in the future.

Bears' D seems rough. Their O, dynamic and their OL pretty strong, so if you can find points, get them. I expect some small ball today, new wrinkles, want to see good D.. I don't have high hopes, Carolina has not been good in season openers since seemingly John Fox.

Core ST Players v/s Guys Who Sit

2026-08-31T10:43:35.096-04:00

Now that we have a 53 (minus whatever's going to happen with Bobby Okereke), you can flesh out a likely gameday roster.

For instance, it's fun for Haynes King, but that guy shouldn't see the field, on average.

We can argue about the 6th WR - I will let someone else - but John Metchie is not going to see a jersey. 4th is Jimmy Horn Jr, who will be taking punts (and likely also kicks since no Trevor Etienne). Brycen Tremayne is a core special teamer (4th most snaps, ST). There's no room for anyone else to get a jersey. So whoever that 6 is, I guess he'd have to be versatile, but also patient because he's not, on paper, going to play.

But then TE, you might use all of them. Feleipe Franks will be a core ST player, Tommy Tremble and others have played significant time from TE, Darren Waller probably wouldn't.

Now, OL, more awkward because ST is mostly for FG, you need six guys next to your snapper, but outside of your starting five you want to have two guys backing you minimum, that's likely Brady Christensen for versatility and then one or two guys - compounded by, this seems a likely place to cut to 9 for the extra LB.

From back to front on defense, CB - Akayleb Evans is still around, and Corey Thornton isn't, which Thornton didn't have as good a year this year, either way a 5th CB has to play ST (Evans played 38%, Thornton when healthy would've).

Four safeties, and Zakee Wheatley and Lathan Ransom are good backups/good special teamers with growth. But also not quite enough to take those jobs, yet. For Wheatley, it might be closer, but Ransom has the harder pull to take a spot from Tre'Von Moehrig. Yet all four will be busy. In this case, other than Moehrig, it's not whether they'll play special teams, it's who will get the 20% of dime. It's been Ransom, but I think it'll be Wheatley.

Only two backup ILB means both Claudin Cherelus and Jackson Kuwatch will be active and core players, from running down kicks to blocking; same for 4th and 5th OLBs Thomas Incoom and Trevis Gipson. Maybe a bit of Princely Umanmielen. IDL - mostly for FG block, right? They're not getting jerseys because they're flagging punts or returning them.

Panthers Sign Bobby Okereke, Trade For Lineman, Cut To 53

2026-08-30T21:50:50.443-04:00

Carolina fought at ILB after failing to draft early enough there*, and with them signing 30 year old vet Bobby Okereke, the 53 man cut falls with Trevin Wallace as losing more than just a starting job. He's now cut.

Okereke is an ideal ILB pickup this time of year, good in coverage and a sure tackler, but at 30 he was available all off-season to now. Like Darren Waller, he covers a need Carolina did not adequately cover with youth (however, Carolina kept 5 TE and one is Ja'tavion Sanders). In an ideal world, a good team doesn't have to hire vets this time of year to patch problems

On the other hand, if you're an NFL offense on 3rd down, you don't care about that, you want the middle of the field open. This makes that a better situation in Carolina's side, and maybe they're a little less in need of playing dime in 3rd and medium or less.

Carolina kept 10 OL, 6 WR (Metchie, but not Moore or Reed), only 3 RB (Etienne to short term IR), 3 QB.

The ST conundrum also cost some names, as Corey Thornton and Isaiah Simmons have gone.

Carolina also traded away a 2028 6th for DT TeRah Edwards, a 2025 UDFA without a pro game in his history, but was very active in preseason: Carolina was thin here.

*With injuries at DT and OT they were awfully prescient, but line depth is critical always.

V/S Bills, 1st Team

2026-08-24T08:37:47.345-04:00

I tell you from my own experience, winning is one thing but out of losing I always learned more for the future. So I got stronger in losing.

Nikki Lauda, F1 Champion

So the question for this moment in time isn't whether things Saturday were good enough, it wasn't. It's why they weren't good enough, and will they learn? So in my opinion, this is what's going on in ten plays. Let's try to learn.

Play 1, 1st/10: Decently blocked in most places, a split zone run where Chandler Zavala gets blown up. Nothing more to say, Zavala got beaten by Deone Walker, a good young DT, though it's not an easy scoop to get position on a NT from LG, Zavala gets a good first pop and then just doesn't stay with him. Jonathan Brooks goes for no gain.

Play 2, 2nd/10, 2 TE right in a slot arrangement with WR slots left, Brooks blocks, and all 4 guys run outs. Tremble gets the target and 6. Ball came out fast, all blocked well, but of the group, Zavala gave up the most ground and the defender could be counted for pressure. Walker/Freeling mirrored well.

3^rd and 4, XL is the isolated (X?) WR, Sanders is in trips but comes in motion, then returns; he's inside Coker, but McMillan's inside him. Etienne is the back. XL gets press, stacks but his route is covered, and counting to 3 I don't see a lot - the back could be 'open' but he's short of the sticks, 4 isn't really open, Coker's being held at the top of his route, 0 has a post but now the QB's about to be in trouble, too. Not a great rep for Walker, beat inside. It appears that both he and Freeling get taken hard to inside for T-E stunts but the inside part of that rush drives home so well that you don't need to notice the DT swinging out.

1^st down, Tremble wing left, Legette motion, PA becomes swing to Brooks who gains 9. Excellent - Brooks in the open field is good, PA is good, we need more of both. Nice to pull Tremble to sell the PA.

2^nd and 1, a trap play and Fortner is blown up by Walker, who gets to the spot before Zavala, who gets his guy but it's all just a pile. This one's on Fortner.

3^rd and ...3? Heavy personnel, pistol, could be hoping to show RPO, but, you have a blitzer ahead of the inserting 3^rd receiver (Tremble), who looks somewhat open but that blitzer gets his hands up. Could've converted.

1^st down, heavy again pistol, with (oddly) Jalen Coker playing the Split Zone TE, and he blocks it right, as does everyone, and it gets six. Interesting play and if you can sneak Coker to be confused as a TE a time or two, nice.

2^nd down - good ol plain RPO maybe, or just called screen, but slot Coker takes the swing screen for 9 (and a good XL block, BTW). Problem? Fortner, who might be blocking straight run instead of RPO, gets to the second level super fast to block a MLB and he's illegally downfield. SLOPPY!

2^nd down AGAIN - quick out to the 3rd-in, Sanders, for 3, after he trades left for right. Quick throw, but another stunt where the ends gave the OT trouble on both ends. None of the other routes were open, nothing good here.

3^rd down - XL on one side, then 0, 18, 4 to the other - but 4 in motion to slot under XL - what looks like a clean pocket breaks down, again off a stunt. They just spammed the stunt. Christensen vacated the space where Walker came through, but I can't call it on who's responsible exactly. Just miscommunication.

The OL - yet another combination - just didn't work so well. This time putting Zavala at LG and Christensen at RG, I can bang the table for Zavala being bad but that brings up my existing feelings about CZ. The group didn't come together and that also includes screwups (plural) from other OL.

Now, my slowness in getting this out has since proven right to a point - getting Rob Hunt and Damien Lewis makes a world of difference and this is that offense again, against Jacksonville. Now, did you see full strength Jacksonville? No. Did Carolina need a good showing possibly enough to ensure it with a little gameplanning? Possibly. But, guard play made a world of difference and I believe it helped the tackles as well. Monroe Freeling looked great this week in a lot of ways.

Darren Waller?

2026-08-15T12:57:37.744-04:00

One of the grand things about ....semi-retirement*? Maybe? I don't know what this is anymore? Is that you can write about some things, not finish them, and then other stuff happens. So I haven't discussed Chris Brazzell's injury directly. I haven't even written about the Luke Kuechly Hall of Fame thing. Now, they've added Darren Waller. And I want to write about it. Will you read it? I guess if you're reading it, I finished it!

So, current state: no Brazzell, but as the HoF game showed, several guys are capable of doing their part. At WR. They featured Ja'Tavion Sanders a bit early, but, as a move TE, he hasn't grown, and they have good Y TE guys. But if 13 personnel, especially passing, they would have been thin, and they were not going to be able to make that up with OL once they piled up hurt tackles, either.

Waller might or might not be that guy - he seems like he operates off the line, and either lined up in the slot, lined up wide, or moving around one way or another. His blocking is not so good inline, never really was, but at 6'6, 238, he does have size to punish DB blocking. Now, before we celebrate too hard at statements like "Panthers sign Pro Bowl TE", let's back up a bit, he was a Pro Bowler in 2020, and didn't even play in 2024 (retired), he came back in 2025 but was traded to Miami (see also, Darrell Bevell).

Waller played in 9 games before going on IR, playing weeks 4-7 (7 was 16 snaps but no targets, but 4-6 was a total of 12 tgt, 10 rec, 117 yd and 3 scores), coming back week 13 and finishing the year; weeks 13 on, he was 22 tgt/14 catches, 169 yd, and 3 more scores (so 283 yards, 6 total scores on 24 receptions). He remained a good contested catch guy, a good move target, but also a role player.

He had a hip strain before the season opener, pec strain week 7, and now will come into camp pretty late.

So then compared to the current TE? Well, Tremble had more catches with double the games, Sanders more with 13 games, and the trio including Mitchell Evans have half the TD.

What does that mean for a group of 11, though, past just TE?

Well, Carolina's been talking of using more slot for either Tetairoa McMillan, or Jalen Coker. Brazzell and/or Xavier Legette were key to that, to a point. No Brazzell, so, maybe that puts McMillan and Coker (or that guys get hurt, certainly) back outside, for a guy like Waller. Maybe 'quicker' play also includes that 2 TE run sets can quickly become spread with a Waller on the field. Generally the slot TE is a little out of fashion, but if you gotta have a guy who moves around the field to draw attention, there are worse ways to do it.

Again, he's not going to take 60 receptions from a starting WR, even if healthy 17 games he'd only have been on pace for 45 receptions (but, 11 TD!), so maybe this is a way of making 100% certain you have guys to go get a 3rd down. If you want guys to get open, great. If Bryce Young is going to look at 1) McMillan, 2) Coker, 3) throw in the basket of Waller if 1 and 2 are open, that could be a good logic. If improving red zone, 3rd down efficiency is the play, this could help that. Is Young a heave-and-pray QB? No. Was I wrong to assume that McMillan was that type of WR? Sure. I do think Waller might be that sort of TE, but you never know. And if Young, who's clutch, has to heave, it never hurts for your heave guy to be accurate.

Now, Chuba Hubbard being hurt, that one kinda blows, even if impermanently. He's had miles, he bounces back a little slower, and similarly to the post Double Trouble era, when a lead back is good you're great, but when that breaks down you might be staring just a hair at a Chris Ogbonnaya type moment. People forget why Carolina had to dig out from such a hole in 2014, but part of it was being a running team without backs (or enough linemen, and replacement DB, WR, and no cap space). But a back coming from the couch to score was pretty indicative of early 2014. Are we back there again?

*from writing. Not life or work, those are both doing so well, y'all. I like emptying my head of football thoughts, but I don't know if I care if people read it anymore.

Injury, Camp, Absent Substitute Teachers

2026-07-28T22:22:09.510-04:00

Life comes at you fast. And now it's camp time.

Those that have survived far worse than "I'm a little busy", have said that plans don't escape contact with the enemy unscathed. Well, so goes my own plans to write but also the early moments of camp, including having already lost Nic Scourton to an ACL, along with coming into camp missing Jaycee Horn and Taylor Moton. Horn should be around, but Moton may miss more extended time with a blood clot. Suddenly, Carolina's entire composition has shifted.

In Moton's position longterm is Monroe Freeling, a LT who at least gets to settle into RT all camp (I'm remembering the terrible 'competition' in 2022 at LT that left LG unrequited throughout much of camp).

In Scourton's, 2025 free agent Pat Jones II is more than adequate as a base defender, but he and 2nd year Princely Umanmielen will have to pick up slack for Scourton's rush, which was among Carolina's highs as a rookie across from massive free agent Jaelan Phillips.

In the short term, looks as if Will Lee has rocketed up toward the starting role at outside corner in Horn's stead but his skill set is a comfortable outside corner. It's the possibility of him playing inside that was more uncertain. But his depth, along with several others, that underpin that (hopefully) this has been a better built team than some others in recent past. Scourton, Moton are huge losses. But is the loss permanent and catastrophic? No. You have a guy, maybe not the guy you're dying to have but a starting level player, handy. Can you afford to absorb but so many of those? Of course not. But you're still standing. Whether I've read enough 2015 analogues, yeah, one was enough, and I've seen dozens without wanting to see them.

Otherwise? Things seem to be solid, where you expect them. WR looks good including the rookie, including Xavier Legette at times. TE is what it is. Lots of raving about Jonathon Brooks, which is good. Lots of competition with the DBs which is what you want to see. Before pads, that's about as good as that can get.

I mourned Scourton pretty hard for a few days. I'll admit, that one was a line in the sand, a reminder that I really still have a lot of skin in this particular game but that I also dreaded writing about his loss.

With all of that said, Brady Christensen's back too - and here's a snippet I also wrote I didn't quite finish:

Brady Christensen is back, and that's it.

He's the only one that's been added. Carolina has not traded for anyone in the middle of July, they've not signed any Pro Bowlers off the bench in the middle of July. The emergence of more and more slop, AI or just diluted by AI, has warped some minds. To the point that I've had well intentioned people saying,

"So they traded for that TE, right?"

And without looking over the internet I already know, no trade happened. They saw an article - one of a few probably, that I didn't read, but saw on a splash page Google tries to feed me when I open a tab, because there's nothing going on and because ambiguously titling an article lets you get more clicks. If Carolina traded for Tyler Kraft or any other player, there's zero reason for it to happen right now. It would happen directly after the draft, or into camp heading toward the season.

The problem is, there are tons of people that don't know better, and they rely on people that do, to not fool you.

So anyway, Brady Christensen is in, and Will Grier has called it a career. Grier's homecoming to Charlotte, much like his first go-around, didn't last long. It's fine. I wasn't expecting a ton.

Christensen represents something, though. Another piece of the rehabilitation puzzle, for one. A momentarily key puzzle piece in the run game last year. And the only good guard depth, because I don't see Chandler Zavala being 'it'.

Jalen Coker Signed

2026-06-17T08:53:14.459-04:00

Lots of analysis (quickly aging in some cases) in drafts, unfinished, but wanted to get to this.

Jalen Coker got paid, 3 years, $35 million, with incentives above that by another $16 million. I'll admit, I didn't think he was able to be signed to a long term deal after two years based on the structure of the CBA. Coker should have stayed on his original 3 year UDFA deal but missed his original cut, and later surged in the absence of Adam Thielen.

Similarly 2025 saw him not show until week 7, but obviously broke out late, including the game of his life in the playoffs.

The deal adds onto the ERFA tender so it's an extension, technically, of $35 million over four years. It's a $7 million bonus paid now (so it rolls across all four years, I imagine), $19.5 million total guaranteed (which is not specified right yet that I can tell so probably means 2027 is fully guaranteed but will roll into signing bonus from roster bonus), and looks to be pretty team friendly. It's somewhat similar to what a first round rookie deal looks like now, with two years' experience. On the other end, a player who would otherwise go into an RFA situation next year gets money now, and security now.

See if I can sort out some more things to finish writing soon, finishing is the hard part lately along with time. If this is it, thanks for the years.

Sometimes it's About The Picks You Don't Make

2026-04-27T08:14:00.001-04:00

Carolina had some choices it made, that cost opportunity elsewhere. That doesn't make it bad - honestly choosing a group of OT, DT, WR, CB in the top four was a much higher value grouping than the TE, S, ILB group that so many were clamoring for.

But after 83, there was not a realistic point in drafting a lot of positions. I could see if they still swung for the fences at need positions, but that they were able to get two highly ranked but lower valued positions in 5. You might or might not get a real pair of starters in Sam Hecht and Zakee Wheatley on rookie contracts at some point, but replacing a solid Trevin Wallace at ILB on a rookie deal for two more years might provide less impact than removing one of the two IDL free agents from 2025 who didn't greatly improve the run defense, while there's a real shot that Lee Hunter also improves Wallace and Devin Lloyd.

A lot of the choices made seem to directly correlate to future cuts or walks on veterans. Freeling impacts either Ikem Ekwonu or Taylor Moton quickly. That pair are 6 and 4 respectively in cap hit on this roster.

Hunter impacts Tershawn Wharton - 5th on that list - Derrick Brown is 9th for the moment and will rise, and Bobby Brown is 12th. It'd be ideal if all of those guys worked out but A'Shawn Robinson outplayed some of them and still had to go.

It might be more cynical to suggest that Chris Brazzell II is about Jalen Coker. Coker has a year, probably two really, they somewhat play different roles. But it'd be nice if Brazzell was good enough to matter when it's time to make that decision. If you reframed it as Brazzell against #20 on the list - Xavier Legette? But we've beaten on XL a lot lately. Nevertheless, WR is a higher value position early.

CB, too, is higher value, and Carolina threw a higher pick at Will Lee than at S Zakee Wheatley. It logically makes more sense to throw more resources at OT than at C. It would logically have made more sense to invest at WR than at TE, were all equal.

Now, I've made the opposite point - bring the lower value player up - FS, TE, C. IF you're getting your teeth kicked in at C or FS, no one cares if you saved money there. If you are bad on 3rd down, no one's going to say, well, at least you failed with a bunch of WR instead of TE.

Also I'm leading with the idea that these were the reasons these choices were made. And I don't know if it was. I will, guaranteed, never see the team put out film that says they're drafting Will Lee III because they won't pay Michael Jackson or because they think the system made Jackson instead of Jackson just being good.

For instance, Dave Canales fields a question on whether Carolina really values the run game if it doesn't take a RB and/or what does that say about the backs already in place. Well, more than that, I'd say taking two strong blockers in the draft, having strong blockers in place, and having two different backs succeed in the past season, suggests that Carolina values the ability to block for a guy more than the guy. Last year's backs in place, the highest value guy was Jonathan Brooks, who was on IR all year (being a 2nd, where the team had 2 4ths and a UDFA on the ball otherwise). It doesn't mean Carolina doesn't value RB, but the more valuable piece is OL because it impacts more items.

You can't say you value RB but you value OL more, but you can act on that, I suppose. Replacing Trevin Wallace, replacing Ja'Tavion Sanders is possible, it has value, they're not sacrosanct but from this view, the value is lighter capwise in replacing guys on rookie deals. To use it on my own pet project, that's largely true for the FS deal, too - supplementing Nick Scott is less expensive in opportunity cost than replacing him versus the cost at heavier positions in this defense.

Would I have taken Dillon Thieneman? Possibly. Does that make the choice wrong? No. Does that make the choice bad? Not at all. Now consider that for all the people apparently unhappy over Makai Lemon, this is greater value than that choice.

So - A Sum-up Based On Value

2026-04-26T07:00:00.001-04:00

What you want most? Good players. What you want next? You want to have gotten a good deal.

So I lined up a quick analysis of the seven picks with their choice, against some samplings of where I've dealt in the season. That's the NFL Mock Database ranking that's available all year, the more comprehensive Arif Hasan consensus that's only available the week of the draft, the Pro Football Focus analytics based listing, and how Dane Brugler of The Athletic ranked them. Any individual outlier shouldn't tell you too much, but there's a lot of good stuff here.

To start, Monroe Freeling was generally a positive. Not a top fiver, there's nothing here but good luck, although five points of variance in the first round can be a killer. Luckily, Carolina landed a player everyone agreed was better than their choice. 2.5 choices is like gaining roughly the top of 4 in extra value.

Lee Hunter was more divided. Notably, the analytics had him highest, and maybe that's why there was urgency. It'd be great to know who else Carolina felt they had lost out on between, say, 42 and 48. But there's also a real sense that, yeah they could've had real analytics saying that the Jets wanted Hunter or needed an IDL (and took one, after taking a CB at 50, with their next pick after that with Darrell Jackson Jr). That all said, the composite had this as a net gain of value, ever so slightly.

Chris Brazzell was pretty divided with consensus and analytics agreeing he was about the same as Hunter, but Brugler having him late 3. That evens out to a net of 16 in Carolina's favor.

Will Lee list just a tiny bit of value all told, again because Brugler was an outlier. The other three had agreement he was a 110s player, better than he was taken. Brugler had him late 5. This is one where, were I to have thrown more data points in there, or fewer, a lot of things look differently for Lee or for others.

Sam Hecht generally shows better value than Lee, being picked 15 spots later but averaging out to a late 3rd in consensus and being taken early 5, gaining Carolina +57 choices of value, or if throwing that in the pick value calculator, a whopping 370% return on investment.

Zakee Wheatley did quite similar - coming in at a clean 92, again a 3rd, and costing a 5, +325% ROI. Wheatley actually had the highest single mark of the 3rd day guys with a 78 value out of The Athletic.

Now Jackson Kuwatch was not rated by PFF, a shame since they don't care if he played before this year, and they're going to give a more honest eval of a full time player like an ILB and maybe give some real outlier grades for things like his blitzing. But the rest was all over the place and clearly the worst of the values. If you're going to do it, do it there, not in 1.

2026 Draft: Where Do They Fit?

2026-04-25T22:38:00.004-04:00

Now the dust settles a little bit and we slot the choices into roles. Will any players start? What will their roles be? First, there are assumptions. One, that these guys will definitely make a roster, two, that they're all capable of starting. Optimism abounds on paper this time of year, doesn't it?

19) Monroe Freeling - Linemen either start or not, but with a lot up in the air at LT and Freeling obviously the only guy with a lot of long-term buy-in at OT, he'll probably get an honest shot at being first off the bench at OT, and they don't have exceptional guard depth (though Freeling is not ideal at guard given he's so damned tall, against the usually shorter and more compact DTs). Freeling is young, frankly a little goofy, and so some feel he'll have a year. If needed, it's not as if Rasheed Walker isn't there, and that's probably Plan A.

If he's being Brady Christensen for a year, that's probably worth 30% of snaps.

51) Lee Hunter - This one could be pretty easy. Gone is A'Shawn Robinson, who became the starting NT last year. If they want to preserve that Bobby Brown III and Tershawn Wharton play 5T and rush nickel, and that they do that in coexistence with Derrick Brown, then Hunter probably has an inside track to starting at NT and the question becomes whether it takes him time to earn it.

So NT is probably worth 50% of snaps.

83) Chris Brazzell is a tough one in a crowded room. I can't do this justice but there are two starters, there are veterans ahead of him. Yet it was crowded last year and then suddenly it was barren.

Ceiling is, he's a Z getting 20% of snaps, and he gets half of the 50% of snaps where Jalen Coker is the slot in 11 personnel, amounting to 45%.

129) Will Lee III - Swear to God, wasn't there a William Lee III tied to both the Charlotte college of Engineering and also Lake Norman?

Lee's ceiling is nickel at 70% and it's also a lot to expect him to unseat the competitors, Chau Smith-Wade and the competitive Corey Thornton. He has only been an outside player, he's a little inconsistent, and so it's uphill for him to start.

144) Sam Hecht - 30% chance he starts. If he starts, 100% of snaps. If not, 0%.

151) Zakee Wheatley - This is the biggest opportunity, going against probably the weakest starter, but S isn't easy to start, and Wheatley is probably a depth piece. It'll be interesting to see how it all works out, whether he has a chance on speical teams, where he hasn't done much work, and whether he gets work at dime, where he might be more suited to it than Lathan Ransom.

To defend that - dime in Fangio is matchup against TE and big slot; it's quarters and match coverage (all in Wheatley's favor), it's an amount of run defense too (in Ransom's favor). That's about 20% of plays.

If FS, that's about 75% of plays, based on maybe getting hurt. Depth would be 25%.

227) Jackson Kuwatch - about 5%.

Carolina had two years of terrible luck at ILB and they've improved there; you have to also hope, they have a regression upward in health at ILB. After the first three rounds, you didn't have to have an impact ILB IMO, but Kuwatch is definitely a project. He's a guy who, if he makes it, he'll make it almost certainly because he's a special teamer who is on the level of Bam Martin-Scott, last year's ILB UDFA who played in 17 games but also played in 5% of defensive snaps. The important part is that he played 67% of special teams snaps, about the maximum you can play unless you are 200 lbs or under (i.e. kickoff inclusive), and 67% is awfully valuable.

Last Pick - Jackson Kuwatch

2026-04-25T21:26:00.004-04:00

Here's a really interesting one. And a really unknown one in a lot of ways. Sorry for the delay, I wanted to watch this one where I could and see what I could first.

One year starter, in five years, Ohio State then Miami Ohio, starting one year and really showing out in that one year.

6'4, 232, 4.64, he had no stats at Ohio State and 14 tackles in 20 games at Miami Ohio before his 2025, where he stepped in as a starter and gave them 109 tackles, 10 TFL, 5 sacks (!), a PD.

What I see - sideline to sideline range, great tackling, patience and instinct; he looked like a guy with experience.

I saw raw ability to flip hips and go in the passing game, which is intriguing, but ore than that, exceptional blitzing. That all said, his hands have to get heavier to jar blockers in both phases to take on blockers, and if he's not careful he's the type of guy who could take himself out of plays running around blockers.

It's a bit of a moon shot, it'll matter a ton how well he plays special teams. He's back to being all but a walk on again, not much guaranteed, but he's intriguing.

Woo: Zakee Wheatley!?

2026-04-25T14:42:00.001-04:00

Carolina went back up, and got Zakee Wheatley. After taking a guy I really liked in Sam Hecht, here comes another in Wheatley, an able post safety taken at 151 that was rated consensus 88. A top six safety with two years' starting, a little older at 24, one and two high looks, 6'3, 203.

No penalties in college, physical tackler, good feel for route combos, mostly a zone guy going to mostly a zone team; not great speed (4.62), decent production in 2024 (4 PD 3 INT, sack, ff) but not in 2025 (1 PD, 1 INT).

The trade was 158 and 200, for 151 (Wheatley) and 227.

Wheatley was a guy I liked - with his own limitations - as a good fit within this defense in the 3rd. Same as Sam Hecht.

Look, it has no real bearing on real life if they pick a guy I know, or want, but it's neat when it happens, and it happened twice in row.

That they took a corner before a safety, kinda shows my point, too. It's not that this team doesn't value FS but they definitely have a way of doing things, which is from the front back, both overall and its secondary.

Will Lee III, Sam Hecht

2026-04-25T14:33:00.004-04:00

Spaced out a bit after the 2nd trade - down to 124 then 129, then Will Lee III.

With the extra pick from that choice (which went from 196, to 166 to 144), became Sam Hecht. That one, of course, full endorse.

First, Lee. Saw a number of players specifically after the trade- between 120 and 128 - go that I liked. Including Connor Lew, Malik Muhammad. Then there's always the "they drafted some guy I wasn't actively thinking about" fatigue, present yearly.

Lee - another SEC, another Tx A&M guy, is 6'1, 190, 4.52, long arms at 32.75 and nearly 80" wingspan, has experience in outside coverage man and zone, in first look has a lot of Josh Norman to him. Lot of playmaking, lot of volatility, very high ceiling and hard worker but he's gotta get his hands and eyes cleaner.

Willing to play inside, outside, safety. Most of his tape is outside. He was a consensus 117.

Hecht is a hell of a play, a somewhat limited athletically speaking lineman with a lot of technical skill and a lot of consistency. A guy I had an eye on the whole time, who made sense as early as 3.

Trade

2026-04-25T13:08:00.008-04:00

Carolina traded back so the Jags could get Wesley Williams from Duke - Carolina gave 119 and the 196 they recently received as a part of their move up in 2, received 124 and 166.

So they'll pick at 158 in 5, and 166, then just once again in 6 (200).

124 upcoming, and most of what I wanted to start the day is still there: Zakee Whitley, Jalon Kilgore, Keith Abney II, Malik Muhammad, Kyle Louis and Kaleb Elarms-Orr, Sam Hecht, Connor Lew, Travis Burke, Justin Joly, Jack Endries.

Summing The Weekend, So Far

2026-04-25T10:55:00.001-04:00

Trenches win so far this weekend. Happy for that.

Choices were not what I figured at all, and that's the draft. I'm mostly happy there.

The guys are good, the positions are good, the value is good.

Starting with Freeling, he checks every real box, maybe not 100% of it immediately but he does the things you'd want as a backup (swing ability), he's not limited to being situationally good to run or pass, in the long term him being either LT or RT, you aren't paying vet money, you are getting quality play, and you're future-proofed against a top-heavy cash OL.

Lee Hunter wasn't a guy I spent much time with, on pre-draft, but unlike Freeling, he was in the building for 30 visit; he really passes the eye test the same way that Freeling does, and his tape is grown-man strong. But he's got that mobility that both Derrick Brown (here) and A'Shawn Robinson (now departed) have, in the run game. He's not only that Gilbert Brown NT that holds down the A gaps but, the outside zone game comes in and you're just that big guy outside the picture. Hunter was a hell of a pick. The trade thing, I'll get past. Morgan likes to guarantee he gets a guy and the cost is fairly low - the Panthers gave up about six points, a mid 7th they already don't have.

But Chris Brazzell is the one I'll have to talk myself more into. He's situational in theory, he'll have to earn it. Am I fine with getting Bryce help? Absolutely. Will Brazzell help 3rd down? I don't know. He has plenty of skill and a lot of it lines more up with the things that people don't do as much on 3rd. The best WR in how they adapt to Bryce, are often ones that will improvise with the scramble drill. I think he has capability to be good there, and so I anticipate that to be a place he'll help.

Now the next thing. 119.

Setting Jermod McCoy - probably pulled from several boards because of medicals -

from back to front here's what I see:

*Keionte Scott and Zakee Whitley are good S, maybe Jalon Kilgore

*Keith Abney II, Malik Muhammad at CB,

*Kyle Louis and Kaleb Elarms-Orr at ILB

*I would probably take edge and IDL off the board possibly from here

*Sam Hecht and Connor Lew (light injury concern there) at C, Travis Burke if you want to double up in the massively tall tackle category, Jalen Farmer if you want to improve G depth

*TE brings you Justin Joly, Jack Endries

*I'm dying to close the door on choosing a WR. I would argue against RB and QB too.

So then what of that group? Probably Sam Hecht and you get your C. Check in after the pick.

83: Chris Brazzell II

2026-04-24T22:23:00.002-04:00

OK you sickos, there's your wideout.

Exclusively right outside WR, led the SEC in receiving yards per game, and TDs, with about half of his routes being hitch or go. He's a deep stem WR who uses the 6'4 part of his frame and his 4.37 40 to get his catch radius downfield, and that's where he's best. He's a legitimate vertical threat. He stacks CBs well, he tracks the ball well.

Now here's the downside. He doesn't do a lot with the ball in his hands - RAC - he doesn't do a lot without the ball in his hands - blocking. He doesn't do special teams. He's gotta improve the short game, too.

If you get him working hard and find him a spot to contribute enough to let him go get some balls, the long term of having a good LT that can pass block and a tall fast WR? Sure, I get that part. Is this guy a starter? Don't know. Does this guy do enough to stick around until he starts? Time will have to tell. The ceiling, high. The floor, low.

83?

2026-04-24T22:12:00.001-04:00

Neearing 83. Do you want Jermod McCoy? He's still frustratingly there.

The Lee Hunter pick is still ringing in my ear a little. I like the pick, but I didn't see it coming. The trade up was not much cost, all told* - and more than anything else I see the commitment to stopping the run here. This pick, Devin Llloyd, Jaelan Phillips, they'll matter.

Now, do I think it's a little funny that they took the guy in front of Jacob Rodriguez instead of Rodriguez? Sure, in part because the ILB was already gone, but while everyone was focused on the thumper, there was a star ahead of him too.

Hard to say what's even best available. Centers have now started to go. Connor Lew is there, Sam Hecht. Gennings Dunker is there if you want to just be redundant, too (he's pretty good).

But feel like two trench picks, suggests you have to go elsewhere. DBs are on the board like Zakee Wheatley (S) or Malik Muhammad (CB), Kyle Louis is the best LB, there are WR (Elijah Surratt?) but not TEs right now, value isn't there.

*they gave up 51, 159, and got 49, and 196, so instead of picking back to back 158 and 159, they pick at 196 right before their 200. But you're worried about losing this one guy to the Jets?

49: Lee Hunter

2026-04-24T20:23:00.001-04:00

Carolina traded up for Lee Hunter.

NT, Tx Tech, 6'3, 318, explosive for that size. They had the need. I'm good with that.

But, I don't understand the need for the trade up, necessarily. Two spots. That all said, if NT was the big need, a number had gone - Caleb Banks at 18, Kayden McDonald at 36, Christen Miller at 42, that's 4 NT once this guy goes off the board.

Hunter was a consensus 45 overall.

Were it me it's McNeil-Warren but like I've said throughout this process, this defense does not do young safeties that often.

Now You Get To Work: C, TE, FS

2026-04-24T20:05:00.003-04:00

You got Monroe Freeling because you were patient, because you were prudent, and because you took two moonshots in free agency.

But you still have some holes. And you have three more top 120 picks. Luckily, you aren't dying for the blue chip needs. Yes, there were people dying for WR. Let's set that aside, maybe. Yes, there were people dying for ILB - also not the biggest positional value.

But, when you really think, lower value positions = high value draft, C. TE. S.

Nearing 51 though, two LB have gone (writing from 46 and Josiah Trotter has joined Jacob Rodriguez).

But, some good news; Emmanuel McNeil-Warren would be a great pick here, there's still CJ Allen or Jake Golday if you want LB, it's honest range for Eli Stowers, there are corners who haven't gone obviously, there are plenty of options.

Monroe Freeling, Aftermath And Analysis

2026-04-23T22:21:00.000-04:00

So first off, there weren't a ton of tackles left.

Now, am I sure that's the most pressing immediate need? Not really. Is it a critical position? Absolutely Can Carolina afford several highly paid OL in a future with a highly paid Bryce Young? Maybe not.

Can they afford to pay Ikem Ekwonu tons of guarantees coming off injury? Maybe not.

Now, Freeling wasn't supposed to be there. Five players ranked lower had gone, including two OT (Kadyn Proctor at 12, Blake Miller at 17), although it wasn't a fully unexpected result - the NFL Mock DB list had him 14, Arif Hasan's listing had him as 18 overall, but most had him the 3rd OT, not the 5th and he went 5th.

As for the rest - at the time the choices seemed to include Dillon Thieneman (Joe Person - "if he makes it to 19 he won't make it any further",), Jermod McCoy, along with Lemon (who went the next pick). That's along with the more expected WR picks, Omar Cooper Jr, or KC Concepcion. And on first look, sure, I can still want Thieneman, but I get it with Freeling, and I get it a lot more than if we had gone with yet another WR.

Good teams have readiness for their lineman problems in advance. Carolina has some of that now.

Carolina is up: 19. Monroe Freeling

2026-04-23T21:51:00.004-04:00

Dillon Thieneman is there. Makai Lemon is there. Jermod McCoy is there. Monroe Freeling is there. Happy with any. Who, though?

Monroe Freeling.

Carolina chose OT Monroe Freeling. 6'7, 315, 34.5" arms, broad wingspan.

SEC lineman with one and a half seasons as a starter, all at LT.

Power drive in his run game, big hands and athleticism in the passing game, gets a little upright but fixable, might need a year but Carolina has a year. An ideal LT option, if that doesn't necessarily mean great things for Ikem Ekwonu necessarily; while that could also put him at RT, he doesn't have long term history there.

I figured Thiememan based on what I wanted, and I also figured they wouldn't. In my opinion, maybe better OL than WR?

15 to 18: Running Commentary

2026-04-23T21:35:00.006-04:00

First real surprise tonight came with Jeremiyah Love at 3, leaving the volume of able Ohio State players all falling a bit. But a few guys who might go at 2, going at 4 or 6 isn't ground-breaking for the league (it is for their bank accounts, of course).

At 12, things got wacky.

The 10-11 trade (Francis Mauigoa, Caleb Downs) touched off Kadyn Proctor to 12 - a big reach for a big prospect - then Ty Simpson to the Rams. Two top 15 picks ranked outside the top 15.

Olaivavega Ioane to the Ravens you could have penciled in months ago. Rueben Bain finally goes at 15 to Tampa. Tampa, New Orleans (Jordan Tyson) getting better).

Best available by 15: Makai Lemon is an outlier, Jermod McCoy. Kenyon Sadiq and Dillon Thieneman are there. Monroe Freeling is acceptable. With pick 16 coming, at least one of those players will be available.

Kill that, Sadiq to the Jets. Long history of Jets TEs in the 1st and not in the good way.

Blake Miller goes early to the Lions at 17:

Caleb Banks at 18.

2026 Draft, Prelude

2026-04-23T20:14:00.005-04:00

I was very young the first time I did this. Couldn’t drive yet, hadn’t heard of the internet, I took the football separate section of the Observer and sat in the living room of my parents’ house and watched the draft, ready for whatever came, fully unsure what was coming. There was no computer in the house, now there’s one in my hand. Started on Saturday mornings and on Sundays, they’d move it to ESPN2 so they could show NASCAR. Along the way the habit became to get Chinese takeout, well before I saw myself going to Asia now 12 times for five countries (and suffering through a draft in Thailand). It’s my 31^st draft with this team, but certainly the most disconnected I’ve felt in a long time. For the first time since starting to avidly write since 1998 or so, I feel like I’ve barely published anything. Most of what I have committed to ‘paper’ has made it only into drafts.

It’s good to be at #19. I’m not going to begrudge not being top ten. It’s not easy to predict, but that’s okay. All the data in front of all of us left us unsure once Carolina did what they did last year, which was the best thing they could have done. So what, this year, then? No idea? Well, absolutely. No idea.

I’m only now staring at the top 30 visits, and I don’t see Dillon Thieneman on there. I’ll reiterate, I think it’s a glaring FS need, and also that this isn’t a defense that spends huge on the post safety, necessarily (not a team that finds no value in it, but certainly, not a team that would put a 1 into it as easily as it would a CB). I can hope they do, but I’ll have to see it. I think DT is complete; I don’t think that Kenyon Sadiq is, but I think that there’s a lot to like about him as a target; I don’t think they’ll go after him. I also don’t think either will make it. That leaves, likely, the KC Concepcion v/s Omar Cooper Jr competition and whether you take an OL or DL that won’t start. I can be wrong but I don’t know that the other CB or S make sense, either.

The volume of WR on the list of the 30 visits really suggest another WR pick is coming. And I guess, were I to guess, that’s what it’ll be. I don’t have to love it, from a team building standpoint, to go WR again. I think they could in later rounds. At some point you have to draft somewhere else. But, man it really seems like it’s going to be a WR pick again.

I’m a lot less invested this year, though. I know fewer guys past 1, focusing a lot on FS and TE this year for pieces that you probably will never see. Inevitably someone will sneak into 1 I won’t know that well. They may very well draft a guy in 3 tomorrow I won’t know. But I’ll do my best. Damn this is a good time of year, and though I don’t know how many still read here, I hope those that do, enjoy a little of it.

I'll check in when things are around pick 15.