Kevin's Market Blog

Time To Buy Gold

2013-03-21T18:40:00.001-05:00

Above is a daily chart of gold (GLD) over the past 20 months and as you can see this market appears to be bouncing off of major support (green line). In the lower panel is the Gold/S&P ratio which has just broken its 4 month down trendline suggesting that money is now moving into gold and out of stocks. You'll notice red vertical lines on the chart which are exactly the same distance

NASDAQ - Trade Setup

2013-02-20T21:23:00.002-05:00

If you read my previous post you would know that I see a short trade setting up in the NASDAQ. I'd like to continue commenting on other bearish technical factors that are beginning to setup. In the above weekly chart of the NASDAQ (QLD) you'll notice a "potential" head and shoulders top that is beginning to take shape. This pattern is far from being confirmed but I wanted to post my

Stock Market Update

2013-02-20T20:39:00.001-05:00

Above we have a weekly chart of the NASDAQ and in the lower panel the S&P500. You'll notice over the past couple of years that both markets have been moving together making highs and lows at the same time until now. Notice at point D how the S&P has made a new swing high but the NASDAQ has not. This is a bearish divergence and the fact that it is taking place on a weekly chart is of great

Outlook For The U.S. Dollar

2012-11-03T11:00:00.000-05:00

I know I haven't been posting as often as I did in the past and I do appreciate those of you who have stayed with me for all these years.. Now lets get right to the charts! Above is a 5 year weekly chart of the U.S Dollar and in the lower panel is the net positions of the 3 major players in the market. I'd like to focus just on the red line which represents the net position of the

Update On The Gold Market

2012-09-22T15:43:00.003-05:00

Back in June I posted about the upcoming rally I was expecting in the gold market based on a combination of things such as commercial activity, seasonals and technicals. You can read that post by clicking here. Since then we've had a significant rally and I thought now would be a good time for an update. Above is a weekly chart of GLD (Gold) and as you can see we've had a nice

VIX - Hits Multi Year Low

2012-08-14T22:13:00.002-05:00

Above is a weekly chart of the S&P500 (green line) vs the VIX. As you can see the VIX has reached a multi year low which suggests that many traders and investors are complacent with the market and feel comfortable owning stocks at these levels. From a contrarian viewpoint this suggests that the stock market may in fact be within days of making an important top.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) - Trade Setup

2012-08-11T12:23:00.000-05:00

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is a key stock to watch because it has such a heavy weighting in the NASDAQ and at times can often give us clues as to what the NASDAQ may due in the future. Above is a daily chart of AAPL and as you can see this stock is consolidating at a very important resistance level which comes in around 620. The stock is forming a bull flag pattern which suggests that if AAPL is

Russell2000 Displays Relative Strength

2012-07-12T18:55:00.001-05:00

Over the past 2 months the Russell2000 index has been taking on a leadership role when compared to the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P500. Above is a 2 hour chart of the Russell2000 index and in the lower panes we have a ratio chart of the Russell2000/S&P500 and at the very bottom pane is the stochastics oscillator. You'll notice today the Russell appears to have bounced off of a significant uptrend

Is The Stage Set For A Rally In Oil

2012-07-11T18:25:00.001-05:00

Above is a weekly chart of UCO which is one of several crude oil ETFs that I like to trade. There are a few significant technical factors on this chart that have gotten my attention and is the reason I am writing this post. The first technical point I'd like to highlight is the bullish engulfment reversal pattern that took place 2 weeks ago. This bullish engulfment is very similar to the one

Possible Trading Opportunity In Gold

2012-06-16T16:41:00.000-05:00

When analyzing a market it's always good to start with the big picture which is why we are looking at the monthly chart of gold posted above. As you can see, GLD is in a clear uptrend and has been for quite some time. What I find interesting about the above chart is that the pullback we seeing take place right now is almost identical to the pullback from four years ago in terms of time. In

Finding Your Path As A Trader

2012-06-14T12:03:00.002-05:00

Pick up any book or magazine on trading and you'll find carefully chosen examples of charts that would have made you a fortune had you only followed a particular trading method. The danger in reading such material is that it presents a false reality of the marketplace. Trading can be a wonderful way to make a living as it's challenging, stimulating and most of all extremely profitable when

Bonds - Key Level To Watch For

2012-06-06T19:42:00.000-05:00

The bond market has recently broken out of a three year trading range as can be seen in the above weekly chart of TLT. The important level to watch for would be the 123.00 zone as this is the top of the trading range (prior resistance) which now should act as support. If the bullish breakout is going to continue, the 123.00 area must hold and may even offer a low risk buying point should TLT

Natural Gas - Where Do We Go From Here

2012-06-05T20:05:00.001-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the ETF for Natural Gas, symbol UNG. As you can see last month's rally fizzled out right at resistance and now appears to be headed back down. You'll notice the volume has been increasing on the recent down leg and is now decreasing as the market attempts to rally. This in my opinion is a bearish sign and suggests that a retest of the April 19th low may be

NASDAQ Tests Major Support

2012-06-04T20:11:00.002-05:00

It's been awhile since I've posted on here so I figured now might be a good time to say hello and write about what I am looking at as far as the NASDAQ is concerned. Above is a weekly chart of the NASDAQ100 (NDX) and in the lower panel is the stochastic oscillator You'll notice that the NASDAQ is now testing a major uptrend line that began in March 2009. This market is also testing a

UNG - Downside Target

2012-03-05T20:47:00.000-05:00

UNG was sharply lower today down well over 4% on heavy volume. If you look at the above chart you will notice that UNG has broken down from a descending triangle formation. The downside target for this pattern is calculated by taking the height of the triangle and subtracting it from the support line. The downside target for UNG is roughly $16.00. Notice also the expansion in volume that has

Upside Target For Oil (USO)

2012-03-01T23:45:00.000-05:00

Just a quick update on the oil market. Two days ago I posted about how the 40.00 area in USO should provide support and a could be a buying opportunity. Well this is exactly what has happened as buyers quickly stepped up to the plate and supported this market. USO got down to 40.10 at which point the market quickly reversed higher and thus far hasn't looked back.. If you take the trading range

USO - Watch For Potential Support To Hold

2012-02-28T23:23:00.000-05:00

Last Week USO moved above resistance and appears to have broken out above of the recent trading range. As most of us "technicians" know, previous resistance once broken should become potential support. The area I am looking at is the 39.70 to 40.00 zone for possible support. What I would like to see is for USO to sell off into this support zone and then exhibit some kind of bullish reversal

Dow Jones Industrustrials - At Key Resistance

2012-02-15T18:56:00.003-05:00

We are at key levels in several of the major indices so I thought it might be a good idea to post a few comments regarding what I am seeing in the Dow Jones Industrials right now. Lets start with the big picture... Above we have a weekly chart of the ETF for the Dow Jones Industrials (DIA). As you can see this market is testing major resistance which was established last spring. Now lets

Stocks Explode Higher As Small Caps Lead The Way

2011-10-27T16:29:00.001-05:00

Stocks rallied strongly today with every major index sharply higher. Over the past 2 weeks the Russell2000 (small caps) have been leading the stock market higher as can been seen in the rising relative strength line in the lower panel. Stocks usually put in a significant low around October and rally into the end of the year. This is a strong seasonal tendency that happens more often than not. I

Gold Surges Higher

2011-10-25T17:11:00.000-05:00

The gold market rallied sharply today closing above the recent trading range. The ETF GLD which tracks gold showed a nice increase in volume confirming the breakout. You'll notice that the recent consolidation developed right at key support (green line) which tells me that the bulls are once again in control of this market. If you look at the commitment of traders data (not shown) you will see

Euro - Turns Lower

2011-10-17T17:12:00.001-05:00

Last week I wrote about the heavy resistance area the Euro was testing. This resistant zone is a combination of Fibonacci retracements as well as a support low from a few months ago. As you can see in the above chart, the Euro put in a reversal bar today suggesting that lower prices are likely. A move back above today;s high would negate the bearish outlook.

AAPL ( Apple Inc) - Watch This Stock Tomorrow

2011-10-13T19:14:00.002-05:00

Apple Inc (AAPL) is one of my favorite stocks to trade mainly because it's so liquid and it is a leader of the NASDAQ due to its heavy weighting within the index. The reason I will be watching this stock tomorrow is because we now have an inside day. An inside day is simply a day that has a lower high and higher low compared to the previous day. What I like about inside days is that they

British Pound - Tests Resistance

2011-10-13T18:44:00.002-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the British Pound vs The U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD). This currency's technical picture is very similar to what the Euro is doing right now. The British Pound is at the .382% retracement from points A to B. This Fibonacci number also coincides with major resistance. This is a powerful confluence of technical resistance so be on alert for possible signs of weakness here.

Euro - Trading At An Important Level

2011-10-12T19:40:00.000-05:00

The Euro vs the U.S. Dollar has been rallying sharply over the past few days but has not bumped up against a powerful technical resistance level. This level is comprised of several factors. The low from last July which was once support should now act as resistance. Today's high coincides with a 50% retracement level of points A to C and a .38% retracement of points B to C. This combination of

Stocks Test Resistance

2011-10-12T19:25:00.001-05:00

Stocks were up again today with the S&P now testing key resistance. You'll notice the market put in a doji formation which is an indication that the S&P may sell off or at least consolidate. If you look carefully at the above chart you will see that this Doji formation has identified some of the recent tops we have seen over the past few months. The stochastic oscillator is also in the