Kevin's Market Blog

Stocks Explode Higher As Small Caps Lead The Way

2011-10-27T16:29:00.001-05:00

Stocks rallied strongly today with every major index sharply higher. Over the past 2 weeks the Russell2000 (small caps) have been leading the stock market higher as can been seen in the rising relative strength line in the lower panel. Stocks usually put in a significant low around October and rally into the end of the year. This is a strong seasonal tendency that happens more often than not. I

Gold Surges Higher

2011-10-25T17:11:00.000-05:00

The gold market rallied sharply today closing above the recent trading range. The ETF GLD which tracks gold showed a nice increase in volume confirming the breakout. You'll notice that the recent consolidation developed right at key support (green line) which tells me that the bulls are once again in control of this market. If you look at the commitment of traders data (not shown) you will see

Euro - Turns Lower

2011-10-17T17:12:00.001-05:00

Last week I wrote about the heavy resistance area the Euro was testing. This resistant zone is a combination of Fibonacci retracements as well as a support low from a few months ago. As you can see in the above chart, the Euro put in a reversal bar today suggesting that lower prices are likely. A move back above today;s high would negate the bearish outlook.

AAPL ( Apple Inc) - Watch This Stock Tomorrow

2011-10-13T19:14:00.002-05:00

Apple Inc (AAPL) is one of my favorite stocks to trade mainly because it's so liquid and it is a leader of the NASDAQ due to its heavy weighting within the index. The reason I will be watching this stock tomorrow is because we now have an inside day. An inside day is simply a day that has a lower high and higher low compared to the previous day. What I like about inside days is that they

British Pound - Tests Resistance

2011-10-13T18:44:00.002-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the British Pound vs The U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD). This currency's technical picture is very similar to what the Euro is doing right now. The British Pound is at the .382% retracement from points A to B. This Fibonacci number also coincides with major resistance. This is a powerful confluence of technical resistance so be on alert for possible signs of weakness here.

Euro - Trading At An Important Level

2011-10-12T19:40:00.000-05:00

The Euro vs the U.S. Dollar has been rallying sharply over the past few days but has not bumped up against a powerful technical resistance level. This level is comprised of several factors. The low from last July which was once support should now act as resistance. Today's high coincides with a 50% retracement level of points A to C and a .38% retracement of points B to C. This combination of

Stocks Test Resistance

2011-10-12T19:25:00.001-05:00

Stocks were up again today with the S&P now testing key resistance. You'll notice the market put in a doji formation which is an indication that the S&P may sell off or at least consolidate. If you look carefully at the above chart you will see that this Doji formation has identified some of the recent tops we have seen over the past few months. The stochastic oscillator is also in the

Bonds Fail At Resistance

2011-10-11T19:44:00.003-05:00

I'd like to make a quick update on the bond market. Above is a weekly chart of TLT. Last week this market formed a weekly bearish engulfment pattern at key resistance. This is a powerful combination and in my opinion I feel the bond market will be heading south in the weeks to come. A move to new highs would negate my bearish outlook.

Gold - Sitting On Key Support

2011-10-11T19:35:00.000-05:00

Above is a weekly chart of gold and in the lower panel is the stochastic oscillator. This market has been in a beautiful uptrend making a clear series of higher highs and higher lows. Right now GLD is testing a very significant support level which is comprised of trendline support and the high from last May. You'll notice the stochastic oscialltor is in the buy zone and over the past 3 years

Stock Market Update

2011-10-11T19:12:00.001-05:00

It's been awhile since I've posted on here so I fugured it's time for an update. Many of you have been writing to me wondering why I haven't posted on here for quite some time and the reason is simply because trading is my passion not blogging. Having said that lets get right to the charts.! Above is a daily chart of the S&P 500. As you can see the market is now testing some minor resistance at

NASDAQ Rally Stalls At Resistance

2011-07-12T19:26:00.000-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the NASDAQ (QQQ) over the past 9 months. As you can see this market has been in a trading range for most of the year. Just recently we tested the top of this range and failed to break through resistance. This has been a very difficult market to trade primarily due to the fact that traders are reacting to every bit of fundamental news that comes out regarding Greece. I

Stock Market Update

2011-07-05T22:28:00.000-05:00

OK, a lot has happened since my last post so lets get right to it. As you know I've been bearish on stocks and had a very large short position. The trade was actually working nicely for about 2 days but then things changed in a dramatic way. Out of nowhere stock exploded higher and before I could even blink my profits were gone. Just two days later I was sitting with large losses which continued

Crude Oil - Tests Major Support

2011-06-23T22:22:00.003-05:00

Today crude oil futures were sharply lower on the news that the IEA will pump more oil into the market.. If you look at the above weekly chart of crude oil, you will notice that the market is testing a very significant uptrend line that began back in January 2009. If you examine the last large pullback in this bulll market, you will see that we had a decline of 22.9% . Right now the market has

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) - Down Over 6% In After Hours Trading

2011-06-23T15:59:00.000-05:00

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) closed the day on its highs but tomorrow will be a very different story as the stock is down almost 7% in after hours trading. ORCL beat earnings but traders felt the numbers weren't good enough as the stock immediately sold off on the release of the report.. The company reported $0.75 EPS on a 12% gain in sales with $10.78 billion in revenues. As you can see in the

Stocks Take A Wild Ride Today

2011-06-23T15:25:00.001-05:00

Today was a news driven day as stocks reacted to 3 pieces of market moving information causing traders to scramble in and out of positions. On the open stocks gapped lower on a bad jobless claims report as well as the release of our Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Stocks remained under pressure for most of the day until about 2:50pm eastern time when reports of Greece reaching an agreement caused

Cisco Systems, Inc (CSCO) - Amazing 3 Month Cycle Of Highs

2011-06-22T19:41:00.002-05:00

Every now and then you come across a market that displays a wonderful cyclical pattern which is why I'd like to show you Cisco Systems, Inc (CSCO) 3 month cycle of highs. In the above daily chart of CSCO you will notice that every 3 months this stock tends to rally and then sells off. Obviously this cycle is heavily influenced by earnings and the sentiment of traders. If you look closely at

Google Inc - (GOOG) - Inside Day

2011-06-22T17:48:00.000-05:00

Google Inc. (GOOG) has been trending lower over the past few months and has now put in an inside day. An inside day is simply a day where the range is contained within the previous day's range. What I like about inside days is that they sometimes lead to nice trending moves over the next 1 to 3 days. The last inside day that GOOG had was on June 9th and you can see the sell off that took place

Keep Your Eye On This Market

2011-06-22T17:00:00.000-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the ETF for the U.S. Dollar symbol UUP. If you've been a reader of this blog you would know that one of my favorite chart patterns is the symmetrical triangle and that is exactly what is forming in the U.S. Dollar right now. We can never be sure which way the breakout will be but when it does finally happen the subsequent move should be a nice trend. I guess being that

Stocks Come Under Pressure

2011-06-22T16:06:00.001-05:00

As of yesterday I've been leaning back again towards the bearish side in the stock market as I think we will see a retest of the recent lows. Above is a 60 minute chart of the NASDAQ composite and in the lower panel is the stochastic indicator. As you can see the market is in a downtrend and the way to make money in downtrends is to short the rallies. In my comments from yesterday I said I

AAPL ( Apple Inc) - Has The Bulls Back Been Broken?

2011-06-21T17:50:00.002-05:00

Above is a weekly chart of Apple Inc. (AAPL) and as you can see this stock has enjoyed a spectacular rally over the past 2 1/2 years.. You'll also notice a very significant uptrend line that starts from early 2009. What makes this trendline so important is that it takes place on a weekly chart and that this line has been touched several times. APPL slipped briefly below this line last week

Stocks Rally- Will It Continue

2011-06-21T17:21:00.000-05:00

Well if you read my last post regarding the stock market, you would know that I was expecting some kind of bounce off the 200 day moving average and that is exactly what has happened. Over the past few days, the S&P has rallied slightly over 3% and has made a 10 day high today. The question is, where do we go from here? In my opinion I think stocks are about to head back down again. The rally

Stocks Test Critical Support Levels

2011-06-16T17:14:00.002-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the S&P 500 along with the 200 day moving average. The market is now sitting right on this important and most watched technical average. As you can see, this decline is larger in price and time than the previous retracements which in my opinion is a sign that the uptrend which began in July of 2010 may be over. I wouldn't be surprised however to see a bounce here as

Stock Market - Is The Market Oversold

2011-06-10T00:13:00.000-05:00

The market has sold of sharply over the past few weeks but when you look at the big picture the uptrend is still intact. I've been bearish on the stock market since June 1st when I saw the small caps begin to break down which I wrote about here on this blog. Since then stocks have sold off considerably and are now reaching some of my downside objectives. The head in shoulders pattern in the

Apple Inc.(AAPL) - Showing Relative Strength

2011-06-04T12:06:00.002-05:00

Above is a 60 minute chart of Apple Inc. (AAPL) and in the lower panel is a 60 minute chart of the S&P500. As you can see both the S&P and AAPL have been moving together making highs and lows at approximately the same time. What interests me about the above chart is that we are now seeing AAPL begin to diverge from what the S&P is doing. Over the past few days the S&P as well as the rest of

Small Caps Lead The Decline In Today's Sell Off

2011-06-01T22:39:00.000-05:00

Stocks were down sharply today after the release of some weak economic data which came out around 10:00am early this morning. You'll notice lately that most of the economic reports that have been coming out have been bearish. In the above daily chart of the Russell2000 (IWM) you can see that stocks clearly broke the uptrend line and retested this line yesterday. I was actually short this