tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-374334352026-10-13T04:56:06.417-05:00Easy to understand analysis of all the major world markets including commodities, stocks, currencies, ETFs and bonds.Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comBlogger1444125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-3909213726340613502014-08-07T17:44:00.002-05:002014-08-07T17:47:05.225-05:00

  Above is a 4hour chart of gold futures from mid June to the present. As you can see there has been a very accurate cycle pulsating through this market on a short term basis. All of these lows  marked with arrows are the same distance apart making this cycle worth paying attention to.   Just the other day we had a low due and sure enough away goes the market to the upside.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-10882127046249214392014-08-04T18:52:00.002-05:002014-08-04T18:52:53.599-05:00

Above is a 60 minute chart of PLUG which is an alternative energy stock.  As you can see over the past 3 months this stock has been forming higher lows in a very cyclical manner. Approximately every 3/1/2 weeks PLUG has put in a short term bottom and has rallied. The last cyclical low was due  on August 1st around 11:00am eastern time and this is precisely when PLUG put

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-59644620371135371692014-07-26T17:42:00.000-05:002014-07-26T17:43:24.477-05:00

  Above is a weekly chart of the homebuilders ETF symbol XHB. The blue line is the S&P500. As you can see both markets have been moving higher TOGETHER for the past few years until now. If you look closely at the chart you will notice that the S&P has made a new swing high while the homebuilders have made a lower high. This is a bearish negative divergence and is a sign that

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-21325653172946333352014-07-09T18:19:00.000-05:002014-07-09T18:19:00.328-05:00

   I know it's been awhile since I've posted on this blog and that's primarily because I am more of a trader than blogger. If any of my readers are still with me I'd like to share a trade I see setting up in the gold market particularly the gold stocks. Above is a weekly chart of GDXJ which is the Junior Gold Miners ETF. As you can see we have an inverted head and shoulders bottom

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-58804353737513550912013-08-15T16:20:00.000-05:002013-08-15T16:20:33.955-05:00

The stochastics indicator is a popular oscillator that many technicians like to use when trading the markets but like with most indicators they have a poor track record. If used correctly, the stochastics indicator can actually be profitable by simply focusing on trading with the trend and trading at support and resistance. Above we have a 60 min chart of QCOM with the stochastics

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-87077418751276800472013-08-15T15:36:00.000-05:002013-08-15T15:36:15.864-05:00

As you can tell from my  uncluttered charts I like to keep things simple which I do believe is one of the keys in analyzing and trading any market successfully. Above is  2 hour chart of the Russell2000 index and as you can see there is a head and shoulders pattern which has formed over the last 3 weeks. My plan was to short this market on a move below the neckline but with

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-13224782943874556692013-08-12T19:01:00.004-05:002013-08-12T19:01:52.393-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the gold stocks index symbol XAU and as you can see we have a head and shoulders bottoming formation taking place. Today we saw the XAU index trade above the neckline confirming the bullish pattern. On a seasonal basis we usually see gold and gold stocks make their greatest gains during the months of August and September . When you combine a bullish seasonal

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-63069806777894609712013-03-21T18:40:00.001-05:002013-03-21T18:40:14.596-05:00

  Above is a daily chart of gold (GLD) over the past 20 months and as you can see this market appears to be bouncing off of major support (green line). In the lower panel is the Gold/S&P ratio which has just broken its 4 month down trendline suggesting that money is now moving into gold and out of stocks.   You'll notice red vertical lines on the chart which are exactly the

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-55185913496728216222013-02-20T21:23:00.002-05:002013-02-20T21:27:12.590-05:00

If you read my previous post you would know that I see a short trade setting up in the NASDAQ.  I'd like to continue commenting on other bearish technical factors that are beginning to setup. In the above weekly chart of the NASDAQ (QLD) you'll notice a "potential" head and shoulders top  that is beginning to take shape. This pattern is far from being confirmed but I wanted to post

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-68678758330607229742013-02-20T20:39:00.001-05:002013-02-20T20:41:56.672-05:00

Above we have a weekly chart of the NASDAQ and in the lower panel the S&P500. You'll notice over the past couple of years that both markets have been moving together making highs and lows at the same time until now. Notice at point D how the S&P has made a new swing high but the NASDAQ has not. This is a bearish divergence and the fact that it is taking place on a weekly chart

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-65828854228573335172012-11-03T11:00:00.000-05:002012-11-03T11:04:17.813-05:00

I know I haven't been posting as often as I did in the past and I do appreciate those of you who have stayed with me for all these years.. Now lets get right to the charts! Above is a 5 year weekly chart of the U.S Dollar and in the lower panel is the net positions of the 3 major players in the market. I'd like to focus just on the red line which represents the net position of the

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-38979769259581753222012-09-22T15:43:00.003-05:002012-09-22T15:48:26.608-05:00

       Back in June I posted about the upcoming rally I was expecting in the gold market based on a combination of things such as commercial activity, seasonals and technicals. You can read that post by clicking here. Since then we've had a significant rally and I thought now would be a good time for an update.   Above is a weekly chart of GLD (Gold) and as

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-24837877759700980652012-08-14T22:13:00.002-05:002012-08-14T22:14:25.159-05:00

Above is a weekly chart of the S&P500 (green line) vs the VIX. As you can see the VIX has reached a multi year low which suggests that many traders and investors are complacent with the market and feel comfortable owning stocks at these levels. From a contrarian viewpoint this suggests that the stock market may in fact be within days of making an important top.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-8194857678194153882012-08-11T12:23:00.000-05:002012-08-11T12:23:50.556-05:00

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is a key stock to watch because it has such a heavy weighting in the NASDAQ and at times can often give us clues as to what the NASDAQ may due in the future. Above is a daily chart of AAPL and as you can see this stock is consolidating at a very important resistance level  which comes in around 620. The stock is forming a bull flag pattern which suggests that if AAPL

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-24363358823059338662012-07-12T18:55:00.001-05:002012-07-12T18:55:34.595-05:00

Over the past 2 months the Russell2000 index has been taking on a leadership role when compared to the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P500.  Above is a 2 hour chart of the Russell2000 index and in the lower panes we have a ratio chart of the Russell2000/S&P500 and at the very bottom pane is the stochastics oscillator.  You'll notice today the Russell appears to have

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-46752561416887761222012-07-11T18:25:00.001-05:002012-07-11T18:33:50.402-05:00

Above is a weekly chart of UCO which is one of several crude oil ETFs that I like to trade. There are a few significant technical factors on this chart that have gotten my attention and is the reason I am writing this post.  The first technical point I'd like to highlight is the bullish engulfment reversal pattern that took place 2 weeks ago. This bullish engulfment is

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-5901227242305541002012-06-16T16:41:00.000-05:002012-06-16T16:46:08.160-05:00

When analyzing a market it's always good to start with the big picture which is why we are looking at the monthly chart of gold posted above. As you can see, GLD is in a clear uptrend and has been for quite some time. What I find interesting about the above chart is that the pullback we seeing take place right now is almost identical to the pullback from four years ago in

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-6559095786356433782012-06-14T12:03:00.002-05:002012-06-14T12:21:02.674-05:00

Pick up any book or magazine on trading and you'll find carefully chosen examples of charts that would have made you a fortune had you only followed a particular trading method. The danger in reading such material is that it presents a false reality of the marketplace. Trading can be a wonderful way to make a living as it's challenging, stimulating and most of all extremely profitable when

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-4943861543266663142012-06-06T19:42:00.000-05:002012-06-06T19:43:19.561-05:00

The bond market has recently broken out of a three year trading range as can be seen in the above weekly chart of TLT. The important level to watch for would be the 123.00  zone as this is the top of the trading range (prior resistance) which now should act as support. If the bullish breakout is going to continue, the 123.00 area must hold and may even offer a low risk buying point

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-15079303649639172252012-06-05T20:05:00.001-05:002012-06-05T20:05:36.929-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the ETF for Natural Gas, symbol UNG. As you can see last month's rally fizzled out right at resistance and now appears to be headed back down. You'll notice the volume has been increasing on the recent down leg and is now decreasing as the market attempts to rally. This in my opinion is a bearish sign and suggests that a retest of the April 19th low may be

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-33032199201931721182012-06-04T20:11:00.002-05:002012-06-04T20:11:23.914-05:00

It's been awhile since I've posted on here so I figured now might be a good time to say hello and write about what I am looking at as far as the NASDAQ is concerned. Above is a weekly chart of the NASDAQ100 (NDX) and in the lower panel is the stochastic oscillator You'll notice that the NASDAQ is now testing a major uptrend line that began in March 2009. This market is also testing a

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-67902365293085219812012-03-05T20:47:00.000-05:002012-03-05T20:47:26.193-05:00

UNG was sharply lower today down well over 4% on heavy volume. If you look at the above chart you will notice that UNG has broken down from a descending triangle formation.  The downside target for this pattern is calculated by taking the height of the triangle and subtracting it from the support line. The downside target for UNG is roughly $16.00. Notice also the expansion

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-75524630554089771322012-03-01T23:45:00.000-05:002012-03-01T23:45:57.576-05:00

Just a quick update on the oil market. Two days ago I posted about how the 40.00 area in USO should provide support and a could be a buying opportunity. Well this is exactly what has happened as buyers quickly stepped up to the plate and supported this market. USO got down to 40.10 at which point the market quickly reversed higher and thus far hasn't looked back.. If you take the trading

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-91737334441999937522012-02-28T23:23:00.000-05:002012-02-28T23:23:48.195-05:00

Last Week USO moved above resistance and appears to have broken out above of the recent trading range. As most of us "technicians" know, previous resistance once broken should become potential support. The area I am looking at is the 39.70 to 40.00 zone for possible support.  What I would like to see is for USO to sell off into this support zone and then exhibit some kind of

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-86768122432224897342012-02-15T18:56:00.003-05:002012-02-15T18:58:17.928-05:00

We are at key levels in several of the major indices so I thought it might be a good idea to post a few comments regarding what I am seeing in the Dow Jones Industrials right now. Lets start with the big picture...   Above we have a weekly chart of the ETF for the Dow Jones Industrials (DIA). As you can see this market is testing major resistance which was established last spring

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com4