Athinarayanan Advisory Services Since 2009

CHINA’S NEGOTIATION WITH MYANMAR MILITARY RULED GOVERNMENT

2021-04-16T05:09:00.007-07:00

To: The Right Hon. People’s Republic of China President Hon. Xi Jinping

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: April 19, 2021

RE: CHINA’S NEGOTIATION WITH MYANMAR MILITARY RULED GOVERNMENT TO BRING BACK DISCIPLINED DEMOCRACY.

Suggestions:

Hon. President, let me start paying my respects to you and through you to. There are lots of problems in Myanmar. It is difficult to predict how long this will last? I suspect that General Min Aung Hlaing may form his own political party in a year’s time to contest the election next year or co-opted into an existing party to contest the election next year as a civilian presidential candidate. That is why I most humbly prayed you to support the Myanmar people in their quest for disciplined democracy and human rights. Otherwise, military rule will be continued and we cannot hand back power to the people of Myanmar. The issue might require China cooperation. I am writing to you as you have strategic influence in Myanmar.

Hon. President, you must aware that millions of people in Myanmar risk death to fight for their basic democratic rights. I firmly believe that China’s coordinated response with Myanmar military government can restore the democracy in Myanmar and make Myanmar military understand that human rights and civil liberties are important to everyone in Myanmar. IMHO, diplomatic pressure alone will not bring disciplined democracy in Myanmar. Moreover, I am pragmatic that sanctions or military interventions are unrealistic solutions that end up more harm than good. Sanctions and military interventions will make life even more difficult for all citizens’ particularly poor nations. Military intervention is incompatible with any concept of democracy and would be to start a war. Sanctions increase illegal trades, tend to become less democracy of sanctioned governments, will not succeed in regime change, does not allow media to investigate and speak freely about any atrocities, engages in mass human rights abuses etc.

Hon. President, Rohingya situation is clearly unsustainable as Rohingya children growing up without education, Rohingya refugees lacking essential education, lacking access to work, lacking skills, teenage boys are lured into terrorists in ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army), teenage girls are lured into prostitutes. I heard from one international media that Myanmar’s military want to make Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone. Because of that Myanmar’s military were determined Rohingya’s refugees to out the region. I most humbly request you to settle the Rohingyan refugee crisis. Myanmar democracy is not possible until the military under the control of civilian government. Hon. President, health of democracy is deteriorated worldwide due to radical extremisms, racisms, religions, overflowing military weapons in the civic society, economic sanity, gross violations of international law or procedure etc. China negotiation with Myanmar military ruled government can realistically help democracy back in Myanmar because Myanmar infrastructure is developed with your government assistance. Without China this is futile.

Thank you very much for your kind attention Hon. President!

With most amicable regards,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja (Independent Research Analyst)

Athinarayanan Advisory Services Since 2009

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DEMOCRACY DIES IN MYANMAR - AN IMPECCABLE ANALYSIS 2021

2021-03-30T05:49:00.031-07:00

To: The Senior General Mr. Min Aung Hlaing Office of the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: April 19, 2021

RE: Democracy Dies in Myanmar– An Impeccable Analysis 2021

Suggestions:

Mr. General, let me start paying my respects to you and through you to. I have watched and observed many documentaries about Myanmar, Myanmar military is taking brutal military action against the Rohingya Muslims and its own populations. I am sorry to inform you that Myanmar government is responsible for a real genocide on Rohingya Muslims. In addition, Myanmar army has failed smooth transition to disciplined democracy and human rights. Myanmar democracy and human rights was real regrettable. Democracy and human rights can be managed by soft diplomacy. But your military ruled government murdering and arresting its own population. It is painful to see what is happening in Myanmar, a country is a beautiful land and people of many ethnicities. I have no words that adequately convey my repulsion and disgust. Any government must care its people so that they can build a great nation. If you want to build a great nation you need to have a set of governing ideas, you need to have a legal system to enforce the laws which built by governing ideas. You may have strong military but you don’t have a great legal system. IMHO, your military coup is disingenuous compare to other international military coup. If I am not mistaken, your great country had lot of advantages during 1950s and to be an extraordinary economic growth in the 1950s but it lost its way under military ruled government. I think something spooked by you perhaps, recent election results 2020, Rohingya crisis, charges in the ICJ (International Court of Justice) backed up by the Genocide Convention etc. But these issues should be fixed as earliest as possible.

Mr. General, According to Human Rights Watch “Myanmar electoral process is undermined by systemic problems and rights abuses that will deprive people of their right to fairly elect their government.” If Rohingya minorities were barred from voting, certainly, the election was not fair. International media reported that you were alleging voting list issues, double voting, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi violating official’s secret laws (recently) etc. That’s why the military had handed the power to you. But Myanmar Election Commission has said there is no evidence to support double voting and alleging voting list. However, if Myanmar military is in the power, Myanmar will never have disciplined democracy and human rights because civilian control over the military never serves on a democratic government certainly. Myanmar military rule is woefully inaccurate and war on people because it has no strong institutional systems of checks and balances. If you had strong institutional systems of checks and balances, you can prevent from instituting a self-coup which leads to the smooth transition to disciplined democracy and human rights.

Mr. General, you said that you believe in democracy and you believe in law and order. IMO, your own assessments of what is right? And what is wrong? not a democratic model. Myanmar military government made constitution of 25% soldiers elected in Assembly of the Union and democratically elected government cannot change any law without military permission. If democratically elected government wanted to change any law more than 75% of the vote needs to change law so democratically elected government couldn’t do any sweeping changes in policies or laws without the approval of the military. Moreover, Myanmar constitution says military plays major role in controlling all arm forces such as borderline guards, police, Security Council etc. and cannot be punished military dictators of all the past actions. Let me put it very clearly democracy never existed in Myanmar as military exercised more power beyond the democratically elected representatives. The main obstacles to a democratic rule with civilians in control of Myanmar are financial rewards for high ranking military officers have kept senior high ranking military officers in lock steps to form a united front against the rest of the population. Thus, it is possible for military willing to do anything to crush democratically elected government at anytime. The Myanmar military allowed the appearance of democracy but many important government ministries were controlled by the military both directly and indirectly. Indeed, this is not a democratic model.

Mr. General, if you had a right leadership and constitutional safeguards for all citizens, Myanmar could have been model for the world. But Myanmar military should not aware of their proper role in a democratically elected government and should not obedient to the Myanmar constitution. In Myanmar, democratically elected leader had no leverage to seize power as military own the constitution, own the political party and own the part of the government. Nothing in the constitution gets changed as Myanmar military retains guaranteed number of seats in Assembly of the Union. In my opinion, Myanmar constitution should design to allow for its people to be true to nature and pursue happiness while enjoying the liberty. Myanmar constitution should guarantees its three pillars (legislative, executive and judicial), separation of legislative, executive and judicial of government, freedom of speech, gathering, the active engagement of its citizens, etc. Full democracy is difficult to build and sustain under authoritarian rule or military rule. Moreover, when Myanmar is transitioning from military rule to democracy it failed to consolidate the civilian control over the military. That is why democracy was bound to fail in Myanmar. If I am not mistaken South Korean President Mr. Kim Young-sam established civilian control of the military. According to Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) “South Korea has regained the status of full democracy on the Global Democracy Index 2020.”

Mr. General, we never get democracy in its pure form because democracy is made up good and bad, different and indifferent, strong and weak, courageous and cowardly, powerful and meek. In addition, sometimes we have been electing the wrong leader to serve us. The elected leader supposed to work for us. If the elected leader didn’t work for us we have to change, we have to consider who and what we want to serving us. Democracy permits misinformed voters to elect narcissistic or deluded people. Democracies are inherently stable when the elections change leaders regularly and peacefully. Democracy makes possible for citizens to act in ways that benefit other citizens. Democracy means majority rule, embedded in the rule of law (rule of law for all citizens necessary for a government resembling true democracy), separation of powers (legislative, executive and judicial), human rights institutions, rules of civic interactions, respect for education, respect for truth and facts, respect for minority opinions etc. The nation will work better if your government system works on raising the education, participation, goodwill, intelligence and of course enlightenment of the citizens. Nations success is due more to the enlightenment of the citizens. The reason for the any nation success was that democratic societies allow many more people to participate in political and cultural life. If I am not mistaken, Myanmar military seized power on March 2, 1962 and continued to 2015 but Myanmar military rule has been devoid of economic progress. Myanmar military ruled government failed to pursue administrative reforms and modernization for so many decades compare to other Asian countries which is fostered great economic progress. Today, Myanmar is a mistake of history under military ruled government.

Mr. General, I have one question in my mind when your military had a very strong command why did you launch the coup? I suspect that your military government want million of Rohingyas are supposed to get back to their homeland because future democratically elected government cannot do so. Myanmar still far ahead on religious, equal opportunities for all, freedom of speech, legal rights, transparencies in government (transparencies in government discourages corruption), tolerance etc. In Myanmar democracy grows from the top down. IMO, democracy grows most effectively from the bottom up rather than top down. Myanmar military failed to establish a democracy from scratch. Myanmar does not have the necessary roots to flourish democracy. What I observed Myanmar military government unable to make good decisions because inherent desire for domination, arbitrary exercise of power that naturally in conflict and Myanmar cultures such as religion, ethnicity etc are further differentiation. Democratic authoritarianism that leads to democracy failed in Myanmar.

Mr. General, Democracy works best when people choose to be reasonable. Democracy works best when people listen to one another. Democracy works best through good reasoning. Democracy works best through public discussion. Democracy works best when voters are able to be informed by impartial media. Democracy works best as education becomes universal. Democracy works best if an elected politician focuses on the people health and happiness and long term benefit of the people. Democracy works worst when politicians only care about winning the vote. Democracy works worst when the nation practices nationalism. Democracy works worst gross violations of international law or procedure. Democracy works worst when the nations in economic sanity. Democracy works worst when government inherently unable to make good decisions. Democracy works worst when government inherent desire for domination. Democracy works worst when government arbitrary exercise of power that naturally in conflict. Democracy works worst when nation has failed institutions. Democracy works worst with opposed to collective governance. Democracy works worst excessive corporate power. Democracy works worst dominant economic-centric. Democracy works worst who those in power conduct corruption and the list continues. We must all fight against these worst tendencies so that we will make it truly reasonable democratic.

Mr. General, I often write to world leaders that democracy must be built upon solid foundations of building blocks. The only way to eliminate darkness in Myanmar is to bring disciplined democracy. If I am not mistaken, Taiwan and South Korea went through military rule before transitioning to democracy. Their institutions of governance were built during military rule. Their military created institutions that put checks and balances on the first. Indeed, their checks and balances to ensure that majority decisions respect basic human rights for all. Indonesia and Thailand use their military to correct for excesses in their democracies. Democracy is success in all Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Iceland). Nordic countries are all putting the welfare of the citizens first. The EU member states are managing to maintain their democratic values since the EU formed ( November 1, 1993)

Mr. General, Myanmar foreign policy has been a gigantic failure in all possible way since military rule as Myanmar military neglected human development around the work and neglected building relationship with people. IMHO, the backbone of democracy is the Constitution and system of government. You need to change constitution and system of government on the path towards full democracy. Changing constitution and system of government would limit the democracy damaged but it will not be easy. It will take years and intense dedication by Myanmar government if it wanted to see a Myanmar is fair, balanced and cooperative nation. In other words, changing democratic institutions and constitutions appropriate to that Myanmar society aspire to and they are fit for purpose. Democratic institutions and constitutions would need to be reviewed time to time so that they are fit for purpose and would guarantee human rights. If Myanmar government responsive to everyone’s interest, the people of Myanmar acknowledge that demand of democracy is ever growing. This makes Myanmar democracy great. It will take years of work to rebuild democracy and regain legitimacy. It will eventually lead to Myanmar more prosperity. In my opinion, democracy and international relations are the only viable way forward for humanity on this world.

DEMOCRACY’S CORE CONCEPTS – SUMMARY

Democracy is the right to vote on every issue and be counted more accurately.

Democracy is the free press to inform the voters of the facts.

Democracy is the right to preserving the rights of minorities of every kind.

Democracy is the right to be involved in decisions that determine our social and economic existence.

Democracy is the right to public discourse but not likely to move into violence over arguments.

Democracy is the ideal form of the government such as equality conceptions, freedom choices, philosophical democracy and perspectives justice.

Ideal democracy can sustain if any government understand or aware the difference between conscious and unconscious thought.

Democracy is the only system that fosters constitutional government and balance of powers.

Democracy works if there is an effective balance of power which prevents demagogues.

Democracy makes it possible for nation to be of the people, by the people and for the people.

Democracy is for the people. Democracy requires citizens to be responsible for their government (of the people). Democracy requires citizens to participate in it (by the people).

Democracy grows stronger when social issues not confused with the fear of socialism.

Democracy is the right to view humanity as one unified community.

Democracy demand strong leadership.

Democracy demand vigilant oversight and constant maintenance.

Democracy is dynamic but not inert.

Democracy is a living entity.

Democracy is a project of humanity.

Democracy leads humanity to more perfect society.

Democracy denotes a plan for all.

Democracy support education for all, opportunity for all and access for all `

Democracy becomes more stable as the people become more educated in terms of morals, ethics and virtue but not in higher learning.

Democracy is a process not an end.

Thank you very much for your kind attention Mr. General.

With most amicable regards,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja (Independent Research Analyst)

Athinarayanan Advisory Services Since 2009

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Copy to

Myanmar Ministry of Defence.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar

Myanmar Assembly of the Union

President of the People’s Republic of China Hon. Xi Jinping

INDIA'S FARM BILL 2020

2021-01-30T17:38:00.011-08:00

To: The Right Hon. Indian Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: February 15, 2021

RE: India’s Farm Bills 2020

Suggestion:

Hon. Prime Minister, let me start paying my respects to you and through you to. India’s farm reforms have been advocated for many decades by the Indian farm economists. In fact, I’m strongly in the favour of the farm reforms when I was in Indian financial market 2007. The farm laws are very good in intent and end ecologically unsound practices. Farm law needs to be welcomed as farm laws are free market laws which allow private players to directly purchase agriculture products from farmers. In other words, farm law eliminates middlemen and gives the right to farmers to sell their agriculture products to whoever they want and they could decide the price but your government proposal on farm laws which fear that it refrain small farmers have freedom to negotiate to get a good price with corporate as corporate, in general have always upper hand in negotiations. Small farmers can’t sue corporate if corporate don’t honour farm law. It will decimate the small farmers. Perhaps, big farmers have freedom to negotiate to get a good price with corporate. Moreover, the farmer’s fear that it will allow corporate to take up monopoly positions and drive down the prices of agriculture products during bumper crop but pay poor price to farmers even the yield is low and hoard it to keep the price artificially high. Small farmers think that corporate farming may lead to the destruction of small farmers. Thus, farm laws have to deal with the big issues of guaranteeing minimum support price (MSP), support of small farmers, farmer’s loan availability and drought. Indeed, leaving small farming to capitalism will wipe out small farmers. Your government made a fatal mistake of ramming through legislation without considering guaranteeing minimum support price (MSP), support of small farmers, farmer’s loan availability, drought and the stakeholders. In addition, your government failed to explain the merits and demerits of the farm bill to the farmers. The way the laws were rushed through parliament people think that you are giving huge power to corporate and make corporate to become market maker.

Hon. Prime Minister, the farm bills lack the very basic courtesy of consulting all stakeholders before being passed. If you considered all big issues and listening to all stakeholders this would not have happened or if your government could have gotten model legislation passed and let the states modify them for their special needs this would not have happened. IMHO, your government verbal guaranteeing minimum support of price (MSP) support for farmers doesn’t make sense. We cannot talk about the things that are not in the law. Your government must ensure that written guaranteeing minimum support of price (MSP) support for all farmers, support of small farmers, farmer’s loan availability and drought with its inclusion in the law so that the India’s agriculture-system will overhaul. India needs farm law that will make reasonable profits for farmers so that they can employ lot of people in villages or towns. Let me put it very clearly that sometimes guaranteeing minimum support of price (MSP) would imply that the nation/corporate go bankrupt. Your government needs to draft farm law very carefully. Minimum support of price (MSP) must be according to how their customers consume agriculture products so that farm law would not imply the nation/corporate go bankrupt. In addition, farmers work with many agricultural products that are not in their control. Lack of guaranteeing minimum support of price for agricultural products makes farming gamble and may destroy the farming sector. But Punjab had guaranteeing minimum support of price (MSP) for wheat and paddy but not all agricultural products. Farmers were financially more stable in Punjab. Punjab farmers say that they are better off selling their agriculture products in Punjab itself. Government or corporate can choose to procure at minimum support of price for at least major crops that consumption is significantly high in India. What I observed since my childhood whenever India has tried to pass any laws or rules, it has never worked through history because bills were not sent to Parliamentary select committee for closure examination before they became a law or acts. If bills are sent to Parliamentary select committee for closer study, we can easily remove of any loopholes in the bills before they became a law or acts. India will never achieve its full potential without farm reform.

Hon. Prime Minister, the farm law and the protests need to be addressed. Failure to respond will result in violent on a global scale. If India wants to grow economically, farm sector must modernise but farm subsidies given to Indian farmer’s room to continue to reject modernisation. Farm subsidies makes farming is uncompetitive but small farmers cannot live without subsidy. Majority of the farmers are small holders of land. Small farmers take loans on their holdings to sustain or survive their lives. Media report says that millions of farmers have committed suicide in India as they could not payback their loans and they cannot feed their families. Farm reforms being pushed through are in the farmers’s best interest. Industralised agriculture requires minimum price supports for sure. Government or corporate has to pay farmers as minimum support of price (MSP) at least for major crops such as wheat, paddy, pulses etc. but not all agricultural products. But it should be calculated scientifically input costs, labour by farmers and prices. Otherwise guaranteeing minimum support of price (MSP) for all agricultural products would imply that the nation or corporate go bankrupt. In addition, guaranteeing minimum support of price (MSP) for major crops may lead to crop specialisation too. Let me put it very clearly, when you are trying to bring market economies to socialist schemes may bound to create friction. Thus, farm law needs to be draft very carefully with certain norms. Because what role does the minimum support price play? What is the cost of the minimum support price? If farmers started to cultivate only major crops what would you do? You need to know what farmers grow. What is the yield of the crops? If the yield of the crops was excess what would you do? IMHO, it does lead to over production for major crops particularly big farmers if you guaranteeing minimum support price for major crops. It would be a hard balancing act to ensure that small farmers are not taken advantage of. India would most likely come up with a hybrid compromise. You have some good ideas but the way you implement them is half baked.

Hon. Prime Minister, India needs farm reforms. India has long way to go in executing farm reforms. IMHO, first it needs to stop subsidising particularly urban population ranging from free water, seeds, fertiliser, electricity etc. on the back of its farmers because farm subsidies makes most farming uneconomic activity. In addition, farm subsidies benefits of large land holder’s not small farmers. Second, the government should explore its agricultural policies that raise agricultural productivity by using new technology. In addition, educating the farmer extensively such as importance of soil sampling and water conservation, how to purchase quality seed and fertiliser, how to develop proper irrigation and water storage infrastructure for crops, how to dispose agricultural waste environment friendly or safely. Third, the government must extend agricultural credit that towards debt sustainability particularly poor farmers who exploit private money lenders or weeding out private money lenders for small farmers. Finally, government need to tax agricultural income on the same basis as income in the other sectors. IMO, unless the market is restricted to only internal producers to improve internal efficiency prior to opening up on a global scale it is foolish to open the agricultural market to market prices. When you are creating a deregulated market but no minimum support of price will result in more farmers losing their livelihood and distress sale of farmlands. In many countries traders who decided the prices for the farmers produce as well as the price for urban consumers. Farmers do not make money not just in India but the world because transportation, maintenance of the outlet stores and cold storage cost far more than the farm production itself. That is why farmers are mercy of powerful traders who sets huge profit for themselves. Let farm laws allows farmers to take individual control of their farms and choose whom to sell to. I am confident that your government to figure out an honourable solution for farm laws through dialogue with farmers and democratic process that suits for all farmers. That is the way democracy works. When you are the leader of a democratic country, you need to act like it. I have been insisted to many leaders that nationalism, ethnic and religious is a major threat to democracy. IMO, there is no better system of government than democracy. India needs to grow both democratically and economically.

I look forward to seeing the farm laws that reduces red-tape and middleman vested interests. Your government already has agreed to include MSP clause. I most humbly request you to remove the anti-stubble burning clause too so that India’s agricultural system will overhaul in the future.

Thank you very much for your kind Attention Hon. Prime Minister.

With most amicable regards,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

Athinarayanan Advisory Services Since 2009

THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC (C.A.R) - UNITE THE NATION

2021-01-16T10:21:00.016-08:00

To: The Right Hon. Central African Republic President Hon. Faustin-Archange Touadera

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: January 25, 2021

RE: UNITE THE NATION

Suggestion:

Hon. President, let me start paying my respects to you and through you to. I have watched many documentaries about the Central African Republic (C.A.R), I realised that given its independence too early before the indigenous population had the abilities to run the nation. The case of C.A.R is more complicated than one can imagine. It is unfortunate that the C.A.R remain fragile in spite of UN engagement in the peace process. The presence of the United Nations (UN) only worsens this complication due to the fact that UN has no grasp of a possible resolve other to cause more violence. The UN failed to provide a framework for defining tasks, mediating conflicts and identifying remedies. The UN strategy fails every time as it adopts liberal progressive strategy of conflict resolution. If the UN can’t manage it, it is definitely time for a new type of multinational council. Most of the foreign nations left unstable C.A.R long ago. Most of the foreign nations only want to use C.A.R as a commodity for resources. C.A.R never going to get a fair trade deal for its natural resources that is being smuggled out of the nation year after year until it don’t put its differences aside and see real threat to its stability.

Hon. President, C.A.R is so rich with natural resources but people are still living in poverty. It is a million dollar question how richest resources on earth have the most poverty? How the nation so rich with natural resources can never come out of poverty? Who benefits from letting your nation remain in poverty? I’m sure that there are invisible hands keeping your people hungry, desperate and without hope. C.A.R can be a rich and prosperous country, if you used your natural resources to develop your country. C.A.R can be a rich and prosperous country, if you ever unify and get it together. How do we help the nation so divided? The people of C.A.R must standup together to fight against the forces that create divisions because divisions ultimately jeopardise the society as a whole. It is wrong for the nation to be exploited for the benefit of a handful of parasitic persons. Exploitation occurs when the administrative system is weak. Basic security and stability is must for any natural resources exploitation. IMHO, confederation could be the solution not only in C.A.R but also in Nigeria.

Hon. President, I literally watched the video that was talking about conflict between the Anti-Balaka and the Seleka in the Central African Republic. I strongly feel that Anti-Balaka and the Seleka conflict is not about religion because they keep saying they existed as brothers before the conflict. I think this conflict is for diamonds but they are using religion as a way of hating and getting rid of their competition. It is true that places where rich resources are prone to violence, intimidation and inciting people against each other superpower problems to sell dangerous weapons to them. I observed that there are many countries in the African continent which have the biggest mines in the world but the problem is with the so called free-market capitalistic approach as due to the mobbing and leaching techniques. As you know, the free-market capitalistic principles that benefit the fewest at the expense of the most, it drives the people of C.A.R into extreme poverty in exchange for unimaginable wealth at the top as it is applied to inhuman activities like power grabbing and warfare. I would suggest the C.A.R government should figure out a cash voucher system for the miners to start regulating mining prices and get the economy rolling.

Hon. President, According to the World Bank Data, “poverty remains high and projections suggest that roughly 71% of the population was living below the international poverty line ($ 1.90 per day in terms of PPP) in 2018”. It indicates that the problems in earning and unemployment issues are grasping the people of C.A.R. Most of the problems occur due to the intolerable malfunction government not only in C.A.R but the world. Any small issues can be many gang fights and leads to genocide and homicide. Both genocide and homicide are dangerous terms which mean mass killings by human involvement and the later means gang wars. This genocide and homicide must come to an end. I would suggest your good government must find domestic leaders to unite them. It is possible in C.A.R of a low population. Your good government need to condition your young men and women to understand that holding a gun and killing another human being is not only normal but heroic and patriotic and much more important than the safety of our children in school. If the young men and women have no vision and perhaps feeling disenfranchised, there needs to be a social movement from within young men and women, demonstrates new culture of values to the young men and women that is more progressive, a new method of resistance within acting in accordance to proper conduct that results in success. We need to instill a new ideal for young men and women to strive for. The word conflict resonates with large part of the world. Peace is the quintessential ingredient that cures all issues in C.A.R. The conflict in the C.A.R requires the bravery of the various stakeholders such as intergovernmental agencies/African Union (AU), NGOs, international government agencies, charities etc. to talk to each other and formulate a detailed and logical master-plan for stabilising C.A.R. IMHO, the concept of making peace is always more profitable than wars but we need to place more value on human life than greed.

Hon. President, Africa is by far most diverse continent on the planet but many countries in Africa is broken up to and still does not even get close to the amount of different tribes and peoples on the continent. That is why it is impossible for Africa to stabilise and form a working government where millions of people can live inside a border and not have too much disagreement on how to build a constitution. IMHO, Africa needs unity from a government standpoint. AfCFTA certainly bring unity. According to the World Bank “the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will create the largest free trade area in the world”. AfCFTA is proposing about eliminating tariffs and barriers to trade and investment on intra-African trade. Creating AfCFTA is a wishful thinking. The AfCFTA may not reach its full potential immediately due to the infrastructure for intra-African trade may not be in place for trade, governance structures, custom regulations, national trade policies and open borders are not aligned with the spirit of the AfCFTA but the AfCFTA still could be a great opportunity for African continent. The AfCFTA process is going to take many years to liberalise intra-African trade. I seem to recall the EU single market here. It took several years to implement its single market. Thus, I am confident that once the free trade policy induced, trade obstacles will come down, free trade will pick up slowly and steadily, then investment in infrastructure that support AfCFTA will become viable. AfCFTA will be succeeded with few regulations and no checkpoints across borders, allows equal rights for all peoples and cultures, low taxes, a national language for all Africa, bureaucracy that does not ask or accept bribery, removing trade barriers, enabling social integration and enmeshing businesses within Africa. I still remember that when I wrote to European Commission President on free trade deal with the US in the month of April 2014, I recommended the European Commission President VATs need to be modernised, internal tariffs need to be eliminated and external tariffs need to be streamlined in order for a free trade with the US to be successful. In case of the AfCFTA tariffs are not the principal obstacle but lack of infrastructure matters far more than tariffs. I would recommend that African Union (AU) must create single currency like the Euro for all African countries but in the absence of proper infrastructures such as common fiscal policy, mutualisation of debt obligations and full banking union single currency will become a mechanism for generating endemic imbalances. The best of luck with AfCFTA is important endeavour for African continent.

I could expect for African continent is a confederation in the future.

I could expect the AfCFTA helps to avoid future conflicts between intra-African nations.

I could expect the AfCFTA about cooperation and ensuring conflict resolution.

I could expect the AfCFTA about economic interdependence and reduce debt of Africa.

I could expect AfCFTA only road to true prosperity of African continent.

I could expect the AfCFTA unite the Africa.

I could expect African Union (AU) a next economic power house in two decades.

Thank you very much for your kind attention Mr. President.

With most amicable regards,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

THANK YOU NOTE TO RUSSIAN PRESIDENT HON. VLADIMIR PUTIN FOR ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN AND RUSSIA PEACE TREATY

2021-01-05T22:13:00.005-08:00

To: The Right Honourable Russian President Hon. Vladimir Putin

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: January 9, 2021

RE: Thank you note to Russian President Hon. Vladimir Putin for Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia peace treaty. l

Suggestions:

Hon. President, I wrote to you in the month of October 26, 2020 for your government to stop selling arms to Armenia and Turkish President to stop selling arms to Azerbaijan. But you signed peace deal between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia is a real diplomatic victory for you and your government. You want to have good relationships with both ex-Soviet Republics (Armenia and Azerbaijan). Now Armenia is close to Russia more than ever and Azerbaijan is close cooperation with Russia as Russia has military presence in Azerbaijan for the first time in 30 years. You did a great job President as you know the value of peaceful conflict resolution. This would allow you to play the role of peacemaker. If you had been a peace deal in 2012, we could have been prevented more death of soldiers and civilians. We could have been prevented more destructions of homes, factories, vehicles, loose more lands etc. However, you given lasting peace a chance for Nagorno-Karabakh residents sooner than later. Let’s hope for Armenia and Azerbaijan that plays by international rules of justice and fairness in the future.

Hon. President, I always deeply saddened and embarrassed on war between two nations. The Minsk group hasn’t done anything in more than 25 years. I observed that Turkey’s support of Azerbaijan and Russia’s new cooperation with Turkey was a key to this peace treaty. You allowed Turkish President some freedom to act, lead the way and hold the ground. You reduced the influence of international organisations and increase the power of Russia. Your influence is exerted in a smarted way by helping to solve Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Finally, you solved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with the least amount of international interference. I most humbly request you to your foreign policies should be re-focusing on international institutions and build broad coalitions to handle world conflicts. This would regain respect Russia on the world stage and its importance in international relations in future. Your involvement was constructive, your actions are consistent. But, IMHO, the conditions set by peace deal do not appear sustainable for long standing regional peace. The Russian deployment is set to last for 5 years, probably renewable.

Let’s hope Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia peace treaty will bring a permanent solution to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Let’s hope Nagorno-Karabakh civilians deserve decent lives.

Let’s hope Nagorno-Karabakh civilians live without fear of the next war.

Let’s hope Nagorno-Karabakh civilians to focus on helping each other.

Let’s hope the truce will last forever.

Thank you very much for your kind attention Hon. President.

Respectfully yours,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Athinarayanan Advisory

Athinarayanan Twitter

NIGERIA - A HEART OF DARKNESS

2020-12-12T22:51:00.011-08:00

To: The Right Honourable Nigerian President Hon. Muhammadu Buhari

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: December 22, 2020

RE: Nigeria – A Heart of Darkness

Suggestion:

Hon. President, let me start paying my respects to you and through you to. Nigeria is a great country in terms of geography, tourism, untapped minerals and many other aspects. Nigeria should be managed by very reliable system of government, it necessary police and armed forces. When I watched several documentaries from various international Medias about Nigeria, one of the most populous black African majority nation and most diverse nations on the earth with about 500 different ethnic cultural language groups so devoid of hope and so divided. I have never seen a country in utter sadness from a wasted opportunity in all areas. I am not reinforcing the stereotype as Nigeria is a failed country. Nigeria has so many challenges. “Petroleum Industry in Nigeria reported that in 1960 a total of 847,000 tonnes of crude oil was exported”. Yet most of Nigerians live in poverty, without access to adequate infrastructure, healthcare and education. Many of Nigerians are still impoverished and have not made any tangible improvement to the lives of ordinary Nigerians over half a century. Nigeria is a heart of darkness and abominable failure since its independence. Today, I realise that Nigeria independence has been an unmitigated disaster. If the British rule continued that could have resulted in a better living standard for Nigerians or if the British installed a Hong Kong style administration, Nigeria would be a better place today. If Nigeria acknowledged at least administrative legacy of the British and African heritages it could have developed organically.

Hon. President, Nigeria’s real problems are tribalism, religion, linguistic chauvinism that motivates violence rather than positive political and cultural changes and thus weaken the Nigeria’s identity. But positive political and cultural changes are depends on one’s political and cultural beliefs. Meanwhile unbelievable corruptions, brazen lawlessness, absence of institutions, military dictatorships, inability to govern, unfettered waste of the oil, mercantile capitalism, Boko Haram insurgency (Ethnic sectarian conflict between Christianity and Islam), local extortion destroyed every fabric of Nigeria and make things even worse. Nigeria is not able to govern itself over half a century. If I am not wrong, Nigeria’s fundamental obstacle to reform and change is misplaced optimism. Nigeria’s only hope is to impose responsible government that would be willing to enforce the rule of law, building public infrastructure, leaving the oil wealth in a sovereign wealth fund, tackling Boko Haram, maintain and respect democratic institutions and maintaining price stability that create an open and truly competitive economy for the Nigerian people. For that Nigeria needs complete restructuring.

Hon. President, whenever the tribal and the linguistic divisions were too much to contend with, there must be religion. Southern Nigeria is predominantly Christian while Northern Nigeria particularly Chadian border is predominantly Islam where people speak Arabic. The gap between South Nigeria and North Nigeria is too vast and their relationship with each other at worst antagonistic. The Nigerian government failed to bind multitude of ethnic groups together through institutional framework.

Hon. President, According to Global Terrorism Index in 2015, “Boko Haram was ranked as the world’s deadliest terror group. According to Global Terrorism Index in 2019, Boko Haram was ranked as the world’s second deadliest terror group. Deaths from terrorism in Nigeria are now 83 percent lower than at their peak in 2014. Despite this decrease, the number of deaths attributed to Boko Haram increased by 25 percent from 2018 to 2019.” I highly appreciated that your government shown by actions and works in the area of security where your predecessor failed. Your government has stepped up its terror attacks are grossly limited compared to previous governments. Your government is doing the right thing for your nation and society against terrorism but it is not enough.

Hon. President, it is unlikely that Boko Haram could operate for so long without some local support. They are good at exploiting local grievances for their own ends. It is also true that most of the terrorist groups or organisations do the same. There is need for your government to tackle Boko Haram. There is also need for political leaders of Islamic nations and Islamic religious leaders publically condemn terrorist groups, terrorist organizations and crime against humanity. I would recommend that Islamic nations should assist Nigeria necessary financial resources or manpower or both to defeat Boko Haram. Your government should provide humanitarian aid to the Boko Haram victims. Successful efforts to tackle Boko Haram have combined effective military and political action. Nigeria fails when her military fail. Over five decades, Nigerian army has performed extremely well in many peace keeping missions including bringing peace in Liberia through ECOMOG and Sierra Leone through ECOMOG. I believe that Nigerian army could annihilate Boko Haram if all forces work hand in hand. Sometimes drastic measures such as life imprisonment and death penalty regime do a good job that meet the exigencies of the moment constitute part of good governance idea. Sometimes severe punishments may serve some deterrent purposes if terrorism and/or criminal violence not addressed systematically. In that case, we need to address the underlying structural factors and sources of organised violence or crimes or terrorism in Nigeria, for instance, poverty, poor governance, inequality, questions of injustices in the allocation of power, statuses and economic resources, high level of unemployment etc. Unless these fundamental issues are systematically addressed, no amount of sanctions can deter from terrorism or crimes or violence. Thus, the most effective measures are not higher penalties but more effective policing. IMHO, the best solution was always productive negotiation leading to peace rather than stalemate or the kind of subjugation. I would be appreciated if reasoned solutions are proffered to tackle Boko Haram. High levels of organised criminal violence or terrorism has a way of slowing down economic growth. Socio-economic stability may not be far off if your government resolved Boko Haram conflict peacefully.

Hon. President, I have seen illegal oil refinery video, the whole situation is so bad that it needs to be taken as a parody and corrected to bring about sanity, prosperity and peace to the Nigerians. It has to be changed at the grass root level. Nigerians should work with the government, regulate refineries, make it to an industry and export oil worldwide. This what Middle East regions are doing in the 1940s. It is unfair Nigerian people are in poverty while government is signing deals with big oil companies worth billions of dollars and the people are left to die in poverty. The government of Nigeria is subjecting Nigerians to poverty. Nigerians need to eat, educate their children and prosperity. Where is the conscience of the government? The army spilling or dumping thousands of gallons of oil into the Delta River is going to affect Nigeria way more than the oil crisis 20 years from now. It reduces the sale of big oil companies and also hinter the wealth accumulation to some very little extent and also reduces tax income of government. If it continued, Nigeria will not be able to even grow a tree or crops, killing all use of fish for food and water will be all gone. Tax that oil and share the profits with Nigerians’s problem solved. Why not take oil to a refinery so that it could be properly refined and not add to pollution in the area? Or create a small oil refinery producer scheme and allow a platform for expertise, guidance in safety protocol and initial funding for these refineries to support Nigerians. It could work out well for both local population and the government instead of fighting their efforts to make a living.

Hon. President, the work and ingenuity of Nigerians and the natural resources of their territory are the sources of economic prosperity. Your government should not allow spilling or dumping thousands of gallons of oil into the Delta River that destruct to the environment. I fully understood that your government doesn’t want subpar products to make it into the market that will affect automobiles as well as nation dentity but spilling or dumping thousands of gallons of oil destroy the environment, you will make yourself dependent on importing food in the future. Your government should thinking of a solution now. If it continued, it destroys the environment and would catch on fire one day. This is our planet. Why are we allowing such destruction? The major problem is there are divided in multiracial ethnics in Nigeria so every those of tribe have different proportional allocation for the natural resource. Violence, inequality, environmental disaster, corruption, poverty, hunger, foreign intervention, terrorism is dark about humanity. The simple solution is economic development. Nigeria has been blessed with an abundance amount of resources. Proper development and management of oil with the fuel extraction process or fractional distillation will change everything and give the people of Nigeria what they deserve to earn. If your government built one refinery in that region and employ all those locals risking their lives with those crude methods you can put an end to poverty. Government that was intended to work is for the benefit of the people. The best we can do as humanity is respect individual rights and natural law. We need to teach it to our youth. I hope that your government that really want to change and make things the way they should be.

Hon. President, when I wrote to Sudan Prime Minister Hon. Abdalla Hamdok I have been insisted that many African countries comprise people of disparate ethnicities who have little history of cohesion. All Africa continents have not yet reached its potential and the future lies in togetherness. I hope that your effective leadership to hold this country together. I also hope that your leadership not only passionate about reform and change but also tactful and self-sacrificing enough to deal with Boko Haram and remodel the hope of Nigeria and recreate a coherent country in future. Hopes are quite among Nigerians including me you can inspire this kind of leadership in your term. Nigeria has immense potential for peace and prosperity.

Thank you very much for your kind attention Hon. President.

Respectfully yours,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

Athinarayanan Advisory Services Since 2009

NOTE: “My thoughts and ideas can only work when your government is with vision and not corrupt”

AFGHANISTAN - TALIBAN PEACE DEAL 2020

2020-12-03T09:15:00.003-08:00

To: The Right Honourable Afghanistan President Hon. Ashraf Ghani

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: December 8, 2020

RE: AFGHANISTAN – TALIBAN PEACE TALK 2020

Suggestion: Hon. President, let me start my paying my respects to you and through you to. I wrote to you in the month of September 9, 2019 regarding Afghanistan and Taliban peace talk, I suggested three possible solutions such as one is divide the country into two such as North Afghanistan and South Afghanistan. Give South Afghanistan to Taliban and keep North Afghanistan for your government. Second is power sharing initiative between your government and the Taliban’s. Third is set up western alliances and rule of law institutions to keep peace in Afghanistan. For that you should have a structured government that sought to establish ties with other western nation. Western alliances should provide enough support in all areas and building state, industry, agriculture, educational institutions and financial assistance. I am sure that first and second solutions may be incompatible for you because you may not want to divide the country and the Taliban and your government is incompatible because Taliban culture makes your government pretty much impossible. If any attempt to form a coalition government is destined for failure. I fervently hope that you will choose third solution that will address all issues in Afghanistan. My decision remains the same till today. The tenuous security and prosperity can be achieved if your government established ties with western nations. Please do not forget that your government is on the strong backing of the US and NATO forces.

Hon. President, Taliban is determined to enforce Islamic law while your government is determined to demand democracy, elections and women’s rights. Both cannot exist in the same place because religious precepts and values are incompatible with democracy. I have many questions in my mind. There are many controversial issues in Afghanistan – Taliban peace talk. Is it possible for Taliban to transform a political party in Afghanistan? Is it possible for Taliban participating democratic process of Afghanistan? Will Taliban allow Afghan people to use social media freely? Humanity will never achieve full human freedom until it rejects religious precepts and values. Will Taliban cuts ties with terrorist groups? Taliban is an armed wing. How will armed wing form a political party or participating democratic process in Afghanistan? I impressed that Taliban were successful in opium eradication in Afghanistan. If I am not wrong, your government also lacks authority. Any peace deal made from government who lacks authority is deeply flawed. In my opinion, a deep analysis is required into Afghanistan-Taliban peace perspective. We need permanent settlement. Temporary settlement will eventually lead to Taliban takeover of Afghanistan sooner than later. How will the ideological position of Afghanistan and Taliban can be reconciled in the long term? For that Afghan people’s ideas and hearts are most important matters for reconciliation process before any other issues.

Thank you very much for your kind attention Hon. President

Respectfully yours,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

Athinarayanan Advisory

SUDAN CRISIS 2020

2020-11-14T06:30:00.013-08:00

To: The Right Honourable Sudan Prime Minister Mr. Abdalla Hamdok

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: November 27, 2020

RE: Sudan Crisis 2020

Suggestion:

Hon. Prime Minister, your beloved nation is not stable, democratic or progressive. The situation in Sudan is precarious due to mismanagement for many years by corrupt officials but I still have hope in your good government to help the people of Sudan by change and transformation. Your good government need to understand the issues and formulate policies to move your nation forward and policies has to meet explicit requirements before the change and transformation can be made. I would like to suggest that water would be the key to Sudan peace as well as social sciences. Moreover, your good government should consider traditional knowledge that is the first method to prevent Sudan crisis. IMHO, the flood will be more in the coming years due to Ethiopians are seedling 20 billion trees and also the effect of Ethiopian’s Renaissance Dam on the floods occurrence in Sudan.

Hon. Prime Minister, According to the International Panel of Experts found the dam would not negatively affect Egypt or Sudan. International Water Law expects “downstream countries to consult with upstream countries about their water use but Egypt does not accept that principle.” I am not a Hydrologist or Geologist but I suspect there is an effect of Ethiopians’ Renaissance Dam on the dam operation and fills up, there will be no doubt a drier spell while the dam fills up. In addition, how is it going to reduce the flow of the Nile River particularly downstream? First, your government Water Administration should negotiate with the Ethiopia’s Water Administration on the Renaissance Dam operating rules dam fills up. IMHO, the Ethiopian Water Administration can only help avoid the arrival of White flood waters and Blue flood waters at the same time. The amount of water stored by the dam could be handled through negotiation and suitable time of filling. Any amount of stored water would need to be released as the dam is meant to generate hydro power. Second, stop building homes in flood prone areas. Finally, your good government put an effort to prevent future flood by either creating retention ponds to hold water or constructing Hydroelectric Dam or floodway’s to divert floodwater during heavy rainy season. The dam has the ability to stabilise the water flow during floods. This kind of flooding could be prevented. I have seen many nations building the hydroelectric dam (not irrigation dam) to provide protection from floods which would incur some costs. As a Chemist, I say with confidence that hydroelectric dam will have no detrimental effect but irrigation dam may have detrimental effect. Moreover, hydropower continues to be far cheaper for storage than any mega scale batteries and provides vital contribution to grid stability. Hydropower will continue to be a key part of Sudan development. The dam will build with the purpose of reducing poverty in Sudan, allowing more access to electricity to its citizen and helping its overall development of Sudan by creating more energy for its quickly expanding manufacturing base. That would bring immense wealth to Sudan. Nothing creates more stability in Sudan than a thriving economy and economies don’t thrive without stable, affordable and plentiful power. Hydropower does not generate any Co2. If your government build an Aluminium smelter near the dam as Aluminium smelter uses lot of power, thus, a lot of water will have to flow through the turbines to contain the floods. I would like to recommend implementing the recommendations of IPOE concerning the soil deposits and ecological change to prevent future flood.

Hon. Prime Minister, I still wonder that how Nile River about 6650 km long one could not satisfy the Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan population’s needs. Nile River is bigger than what Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan population’s needs. If modern irrigation techniques and adoption of less water crops were adopted more widely by Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, they would need less water. IMHO, Cooperative Framework Agreement is necessary that Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan to adopt because international standards and process are in place and have been observed. I know from the public statements that Ethiopia is proposing to fill the dam at the rate of 15 cubic kilometres per year, which is much less than the annual allocation of Egypt claims. If Egypt cooperates on joint management of the Aswan and Ethiopian’s Renaissance Dam, Egypt can reduce the level of high Aswan dam which could save perhaps 5 cubic kilometres per year and substantially reduce evaporation losses. That is why the Cooperative Framework Agreement is necessary between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. Unfortunately, Ethiopia does not want a binding agreement with Egypt and Sudan on Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam. There are still technical disagreements over the amount of water to be released in drought periods. A non-binding agreement is not worth the paper it’s written on. IMHO, Cooperative Framework Agreement is must before Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam is commissioned because co-riparian’s be consulted rigorous environmental and social impacts assessments are conducted and adverse impact on the downstream states such as Egypt and Sudan be accounted for. Ethiopia did none. Ethiopia will evaporate more water for agricultural and hydro power use. Ethiopia’s serious interests are Agriculture and hydro power. Hon. Prime Minister, you cannot expect cooperation between nations if one nation decides to do what it wants without consultation but then expects the other nations to ask for its agreement if they want to do something. I would like to recommend that either Cooperative Framework Agreement between Ethiopia, Egypt or Sudan or there is a single authority with the power and responsibility for allocating and controlling the water that would have been to satisfy downstream.

Hon. Prime Minister, what Sudan need is good planning and a long view. “According to the US Geological Survey that Sudan produced an estimated 93 tonnes of gold in 2018 that would make it Africa’s third biggest producer after South Africa & Ghana.” Why don’t your government put that money to build hydroelectric dam? I would like to recommend building hydroelectric dam which are designed and operated with full knowledge that climate is variable to contain the floods. Why don’t your government put that money to build safe surf eco tourist destination as Sudan has an excellent coastline with multiple breaks that improve Sudan economy in the future. Your government need functioning infrastructures that could be prevent flood and water could be used more efficiently for agriculture and hydropower that improve Sudan economy. Sudan problem is poverty and growing population. Sudan will continue to hold its hands out in poverty until Sudan joins the rest of the developing world and gets its act with developing world. There will be insufficient water for so many people in Sudan sooner or later. The solution is to implement strict population control. The birth rate drops immediately once people become reasonably prosperous. If your government help to create prosperity, you can curb the population growth. We have seen this many nations with few exceptions like Gulf Arabs, parts of India etc. In addition, your government need functioning democratic institutions for democracy to work. I hope to see from you that competent civilian government in the coming years.

Let constructive coordination and cooperation of all Africa continent

Let not to blaming each other,

Let the resource scarcity leading to cooperation rather than conflict,

Let the cooperation begins to pervade the thinking and governmental practices of all Africa continent,

Let cooperative practices become the norm for all Africa continents,

Let find the solution for all Africa continent through diplomacy

Let all Africa continents be united to share resources fairly and

Let rebuild all Africa continent and help the people live a better life.

I most humbly prayed you as a responsible leader, there is much to be gained by your cooperation with all Africa continents as well as the world.

Thank you very much for your kind attention Hon. Prime Minister.

Respectfully yours,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Athinarayanan Advisory

Athinarayanan Twitter

Letter to the United Nation Secretary General Mr. António Guterres

2020-11-03T10:48:00.001-08:00

To: The Honourable United Nation Secretary General Mr. António Guterres

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: November 03, 2020

RE: TPNW Entry into force on January 22, 2021

Suggestion:

Dear UN Secretary General,

Your statement is welcome on TPNW (Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons) entry into force on January 22, 2021. Unfortunately TPNW is a pipe dream. It is really rather easy to enforce but you and your institution make it crystal clear both in words and in actions, if any nation cross the line. The consequences of nuclear warfare should be irrevocable effect. IMHO, if those 50 nations envisage enforcing sanctions either officially or unofficially against the other nuclear armed nations then perhaps it help.

Kind Regards,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

Letter to Russian President on Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

2020-10-26T10:15:00.001-07:00

To: The Right Honourable Russian President Mr. Vladimir Putin

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: October 26, 2020

RE: My Humble Request Your Good Government to Stop Selling Arms to Armenia.

Suggestion:

Hon. President, let me start by paying my respect to you and through you to. Azerbaijan is fighting for its own territorial integrity but it wants to wipe out all Nagorno-Karabakh people who are ethnically Armenians. Armenia is fighting for neighbours land and also ethnically cleansed the entire Karabakh region of Azerbaijani including Kurds. Armenia and Azerbaijan democracy and human rights have failed and continue to fail if Nagorno-Karabakh conflict not resolved peacefully. In Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an active phase of war with several daily fatalities. They are bombing civilian populations. Their destructive policy hampers the step by step resolution of the problem by all means. It entailed social, economic and political dissatisfaction among Nagorno-Karabakh populations. They should not opened fire on civilian residential areas. NK population have been affected by years of genocide perpetuated by Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively. Russia would not stand up for Azerbaijan only rather it would stand up for NK people. Nations are making progress toward improving their economies via democratisation and globalisation but Armenia have taken roots destroying their economies via war. Atlantis Armenian Airlines is transporting the missiles to Armenia on civilian aircraft under humanitarian aid. This is clear violation of the rules of the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation). However, Atlantis Armenian Airlines is under sanctions.

Hon. President, Armenia is receiving supply of ballistic missiles and weapons from Russia. Russia is profitable for its arms industry. We should not be allowed to the continued genocide for the sake of arms sales. Your good government need to step in a stop NK resident’s genocide. Your good government must know that “The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) is an international treaty that prohibits the use, transfer, and stockpiling of cluster bombs, a type of explosive weapon which scatters submunitions ("bomblets") over an area. The convention was adopted on 30 May 2008 in Dublin and was opened for signature on 3 December 2008 in Oslo. It entered into force on 1 August 2010, six months after it was ratified by 30 states. As of September 2020, 109 states have signed the treaty and 111 have ratified it or acceded to it.” War is always the worst thing that can happen. Russia needs to stop aid to Armenia and stop selling arms to Armenia so that lives of Nagorno-Karabakh residents could improve. It is time to give lasting peace a chance for NK residents, the sooner, the better.

Thank you very much!

With Respectfully Yours,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

NOTE: The purpose of this letter is not to educate you about the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh but to express stop selling arms to Armenia to end conflicts.

Letter to Turkey President on Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

2020-10-25T18:42:00.000-07:00

To: The Right Honourable Turkey President Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: October 26, 2020

RE: My Humble Request Your Good Government to Stop Selling Arms to Azerbaijan.

Suggestion:

Hon. President, let me start by paying my respect to you and through you to. Azerbaijan is fighting for its own territorial integrity but it wants to wipe out all Nagorno-Karabakh people who are ethnically Armenians. Armenia is fighting for neighbours land and also ethnically cleansed the entire Karabakh region of Azerbaijani including Kurds. Armenia and Azerbaijan democracy and human rights have failed and continue to fail if Nagorno-Karabakh conflict not resolved peacefully. In Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an active phase of war with several daily fatalities. They are bombing civilian populations. Their destructive policy hampers the step by step resolution of the problem by all means. It entailed social, economic and political dissatisfaction among Nagorno-Karabakh populations. They should not opened fire on civilian residential areas. NK population have been affected by years of genocide perpetuated by Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively. Turkey would not stand up for Azerbaijan only rather it would stand up for NK people.

Hon. President, Azerbaijan is receiving supply of ballistic missiles and weapons from Turkey. Turkey is profitable for its arms industry. Turkey must represent the basics of NATO’s fundamental core values. We should not be allowed to the continued genocide for the sake of arms sales. Your good government must know that “The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) is an international treaty that prohibits the use, transfer, and stockpiling of cluster bombs, a type of explosive weapon which scatters submunitions ("bomblets") over an area. The convention was adopted on 30 May 2008 in Dublin and was opened for signature on 3 December 2008 in Oslo. It entered into force on 1 August 2010, six months after it was ratified by 30 states. As of September 2020, 109 states have signed the treaty and 111 have ratified it or acceded to it.” Turkey needs to stop aid to Azerbaijan and stop selling arms to Azerbaijan so that lives of Nagorno-Karabakh residents could improve. It is time to give lasting peace a chance for NK residents, the sooner, the better.

Thank you very much!

With Respectfully Yours,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

NOTE: The purpose of this letter is not to educate you about the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh but to express stop selling arms to Azerbaijan to end conflicts.

The EU can bring about diplomatic solution for Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

2020-10-22T10:43:00.001-07:00

To: The Right Honourable European Commission President Ms. Ursula von der Leyen

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: October 22, 2020

RE: The EU can bring about diplomatic solution for Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Suggestion:

Hon. President, Armenia is receiving supply of ballistic SCUD missiles and other banned weapons from Russia. Azerbaijan is receiving supply of ballistic missiles and weapons from Turkey. Both Russia and Turkey is profitable for their arms industry. This cannot be allowed to continue. Russia needs to stop aid to Armenia and stop selling arms to Armenia. Turkey needs to stop aid to Azerbaijan and stop selling arms to Azerbaijan. The EU could send actual diplomats (peace keeping forces) to both Russia and Turkey to stop selling arms to Armenia and Azerbaijan and help mediate Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It is important to state both sides’ perspectives and history has become a political tool for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. History cannot be achieved when emotions run high and nationalism is the ideology of the day. Indeed, many conflicts could be solved by referendum but the international community has to commit itself to the voice of the peoples of NK (Nagorno-Karabakh). Giving a referendum to NK residents must include all those who call it home as most became refugees as a result of war. This kind of referendum would be representative of what the peoples of NK want. We need to stop further genocide of Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Lives of NK residents could improve if the EU can bring about diplomatic solution for Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict.

Thank you very much!

With Respectfully Yours,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

Letter to the Armenian President on Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict 2020

2020-10-18T05:04:00.002-07:00

To: The Right Honourable President of the Republic of Armenia Mr. Armen Sarkissian

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: October 14, 2020

RE: Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Suggestion:

Hon. President, let me start by paying my respect to you and through you to. To put things into perspective, Nagorno-Karabakh is not an independent entity but an occupied territory of the Azerbaijan Republic and is recognised by the international community and the UN. The fact that your son is doing his military service in the Armenian army located in Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh and started an undeclared war against Azerbaijan, occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and 7 adjacent regions of Azerbaijan, and massacred and forcefully deported Azerbaijani aborigines was the main reason for the lack of peace in the region. The political solution is obvious to bring lasting peace, prosperity and stability to Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Hon. President, the laws of armed conflict failed to protect the Nagorno-Karabakh civilian population, individual civilians, and civilian property. The laws of armed conflict failed to discriminate between those taking parts in the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. The laws of armed conflict failed to protect the environment as war causes severe or long term damage to the environment. The fact here is that there are a number of international documents stating that Nagorno-Karabakh is an integral part of Azerbaijan. Thus, Armenia should withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan in accordance with the requirements of the 4 UNSC resolutions 1993. Then only, it is possible to ensure sustainable peace, prosperity and stability in Nagorno-Karabakh and its surroundings. IMHO, if Armenia continues aggression against Azerbaijan by doing military services illegally on Azerbaijan occupied territories, Armenia breaks the sovereignty, territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and cannot be considered a democratic country as democratic country respect the laws of armed conflict, international laws, UN, OCSE, etc. Armenia has to stop its occupation policy and restore the 4 UNSC resolutions 1993 which demands to restore Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

Hon. President, Armenia claims that Nagorno-Karabakh has been an ancient Armenian land for thousands of years with Armenians living on the land. Whereas Azerbaijan claims that Nagorno-Karabakh has never been part of Armenia but thousands of Armenian families were settled on Karabakh. Armenia should spare the lives of Azerbaijan who were citizens of Armenia whereas Azerbaijan should spare the lives of Armenians who were citizens of Azerbaijan. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan should care about their life’s freedom, the future of their children and grandchildren. The people of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic want a peaceful democracy so that they can be safe not killed by Armenians or Azerbaijan weapons. The latest attack shows that the people of Nagorno-Karabakh can never live in peace. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan don't attain peace through war. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan do not attain peace by being obstinate in 18 years of fruitless negotiations conducted via the OSCE Minsk Group because Armenia already seized a quarter of Azerbaijan by force. Let's hope the Nagorno-Karabakh problem would be resolved peacefully. The world wants both Armenia and Azerbaijan's aggressive policy goes with all laws of the armed conflict, international laws, UN, OCSE, etc. The world wants both Armenia and Azerbaijan should show their peaceful attitude to solve the conflict peacefully. The world wants both Armenia and Azerbaijan have never opened fire on civilian residential areas and respects the laws of armed conflict, international laws, UN, OCSE etc. Otherwise, both Armenia and Azerbaijan will leave behind a legacy of more bloodshed and war for your children and grandchildren.

Hon. President, the killing of hundreds of thousands of innocent Armenians and Azerbaijanis should never be swept under the rug. IMHO, both Armenia and Azerbaijan is sorely missing cooperation and a humble effective approach to diplomacy that will most effectively sustain Nagorno-Karabakh region. I would recommend that both Armenia and Azerbaijan close cooperation and a humble effective approach to diplomacy which help carve up Nagorno-Karabakh region peace, prosperity and stability. I would also recommend that both Armenia and Azerbaijan work together accordance with the desire of Nagorno-Karabakh people for peace, prosperity and stability. If you failed to do so, peace, prosperity and stability may be decades away.

With most amicable regards to you,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

2020-10-02T21:10:00.014-07:00

To put things into perspective, Nagorno-Karabakh is not an independent entity but an occupied territory of the Azerbaijan Republic and is recognised by the international community and the UN. The fact that the Armenian Prime Minister's son is doing his military service in the Armenian army located in Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh and started an undeclared war against Azerbaijan, occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and 7 adjacent regions of Azerbaijan, and massacred and forcefully deported Azerbaijani aborigines was the main reason for the lack of peace in the region. The laws of armed conflict failed to protect the Nagorno-Karabakh civilian population, individual civilians, and civilian property. The laws of armed conflict failed to discriminate between those taking parts in the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. The laws of armed conflict failed to protect the environment as war causes severe or long term damage to the environment. The fact here is that there is a number of international documents stating that Nagorno-Karabakh is an integral part of Azerbaijan. Thus, Armenia should withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan in accordance with the requirements of the 4 UNSC resolutions 1993. Then only, it is possible to ensure sustainable peace and stability in Nagorno-Karabakh and its surroundings. IMHO, if Armenia continues aggression against Azerbaijan by doing military services illegally on Azerbaijan occupied territories, Armenia breaks the sovereignty, territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and cannot be considered a democratic country as democratic country respect the laws of armed conflict, international laws, UN, OCSE, etc. Armenia has to stop its occupation policy and restore the 4 UNSC resolutions 1993 which demands to restore Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

Armenia claims that Nagorno-Karabakh has been an ancient Armenian land for thousands of years with Armenians living on the land. Whereas Azerbaijan claims that Nagorno-Karabakh has never been part of Armenia but thousands of Armenian families were settled on Karabakh. Armenia should spare the lives of Azerbaijan who were citizens of Armenia. Whereas Azerbaijan should spare the lives of Armenians who were citizens of Azerbaijan. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan need to understand that Armenians and Azerbaijanis live together. The people of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic want a peaceful democracy so that they can be safe not killed by Armenians or Azerbaijan weapons. The latest attack shows that the people of Nagorno-Karabakh can never live in peace. I've learned from a couple of documentaries that the spirit of Azerbaijan troops is not possible to compare with Armenian. Sometimes heavy weaponry works against the spirit. Let's hope the Nagorno-Karabakh problem would be resolved peacefully. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan's aggressive policy goes with all laws of the armed conflict, international laws, UN, OCSE, etc. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan don't attain peace through war. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan do not attain peace by being obstinate in 18 years of fruitless negotiations conducted via the OSCE Minsk Group because Armenia already seized a quarter of Azerbaijan by force. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan should show their peaceful attitude to solve the conflict peacefully. The world wants both Armenia and Azerbaijan have never opened fire on civilian residential areas and respects the laws of armed conflict, international laws, UN, OCSE etc. Otherwise, both Armenia and Azerbaijan will leave behind a legacy of more bloodshed and war for your children and future generations.The killing of hundreds of thousands of innocent Armenians and Azerbaijanis should never be swept under the rug. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan is sorely missing cooperation and a humble effective approach to diplomacy that will most effectively sustain Nagorno-Karabakh region.

THE EU IS A GREAT ECONOMIC ENGINE

2020-09-28T14:08:00.002-07:00

Yesterday, Swiss people voted with a large majority to keep the freedom of movement for the EU citizens. Yesterday was a great day for both the EU and Switzerland. Both the EU and Switzerland have the interest to have a good relationship with each other as immigration and free trade are two sides of a coin, particularly in Europe. Actually, the European Union's four freedoms make the Europeans richer. Swiss smart people knew it but English people failed to understand the EU's four freedoms. Moreover, Swiss smart people knew Switzerland desperately needs EU/German high skilled immigrants as Switzerland, many multinational companies are highly reliant on German/EU skilled immigrants. How Switzerland has managed to maintain high productivity? How Switzerland has generated a pool of skilled professionals large enough to match the demand? Indeed, high skilled German/EU immigrants fill the void. IMHO, Switzerland stands alone won't be able to maintain high productivity. Switzerland stands alone won't be able to generate high skilled professionals large enough to match the demand. Switzerland stands alone struggles to sign any bilateral agreement in its favour. Switzerland stands alone won't be able to maintain its living standard. English people building barriers against the EU. English people will realise the EU's four freedoms sooner than later. Many multinational companies will leave the UK without high skilled EU immigrants in the future for sure. I would like to see how the UK will fare without the EU in the future.

I would like to see Switzerland and the European Union trade-off of the framework agreement particularly worker protection, state aid, and benefits should be in the same direction. So that Switzerland's trade-off of the framework agreement is to the complete EU single market access. I knew it will take time.

CHINA INDIA BORDER CONFLICTS

2020-08-28T03:02:00.001-07:00

Well, India is trying to direct its citizen attention towards China conflicts. This is the best way to hide indian government incompetence in handling COVID-19. If Indian government don't do this, it will lose the next election for sure. Lets write the facts that Indian army is weaker than Chinese army. Indian army is no match for China. History reveals that India started a war with China in 1962 but India suffered a humiliated defeat. India should learn some international law or use common sense. China has become stronger both economically and militarily. Moreover, China is relatively success in containing COVID - 19 that woud have increased their confidfence level further worldwide. Recently, consensus concluded that "China has reached the qualification of super power status". I am not saying that China is perfect. No nation is perfect. Nobody is perfect but we should find a common ground that is the best way forward. It is better for India to stop provoking its neighbours particularly Pakistan and China. In case of war with China, Pakistan will join with China as Pakistan consolidated its ties with China way before Soviet Afghan war prior. China and Pakistan can do lot of damage to India. India is not capable of handling war on China and Pakistan for sure. Truth is US is not going to come to save India in wars with China and Pakistan. But US can sell their defence equipments to India on war time. This is the fact. There is no intention from China side to treat India as a foe. If you want peace, you get peace. If you want conflict, you get conflict. Bottomline is war and the risk of war reduces growth by diverting resources to defence that could be spent for other sectors. There are clearly advantages to relations with China. Both India and China concentrates on developing their economy. Economically both countries need each other. China can benefit from India as India is a major importer from China. India can benefit lots from Chinese expertise in infrastructure. At present, the Chinese are upset because India's building a road on India's side of the border. But China needs its CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). Why India not doing anything even after the 1962 war. Now India is trying to rectify the imbalance more than 5 decades. But its too late for India. India has to pay the price for 5 decades of being lazy on border infrastructure with China. I would suggest both China and India establish a common monitoring measures about the border to resolve the border conflicts.

THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU) RECOVERY FUNDS

2020-05-24T03:40:00.001-07:00

Well, Germany & France proposed 500 billion Euro to contain the economic damage and kick-start the EU economic recovery. Indeed, it's the EU economic downturn that needs a economic policy response. I observed some of the member states had economic growth for the past 10 years but their states politicians refused to control their spending and continued to have deficits. The EU should provide financing the member states that are responsible with their spending. Otherwise it would be a grave mistake from the EU and the EU will come to the rescue. I want the European Commission President Hon. Ursula von der Leyen should tighter the member states integration and press for greater fiscal responsibility across the 27 member states along with structural reforms so that the EU will kick-start the economic recovery. Otherwise the EU will miss the pragmatic approach. Remember. Mr. Bruno said on BBC Hard Talk couple of days back that debt to GDP at 115 percent in 2021. We have to reduce it at least within a decade.

I stopped to address the international issues since October 2019. Everyday, I am losing my factful mindset and analytical skill sets since October 2019. I won't be able to address the international issues here onward.

AN OPEN LETTER TO MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT OF UK PLC.ON BREXIT PARLIAMENT VOTE

2019-10-18T23:19:00.002-07:00

01 February 2017

AN OPEN LETTER TO MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT OF UK PLC.ON BREXIT PARLIAMENT VOTE

Dear Right Honourable and Honourable Members of Parliament,

I am writing to propose a way forward which reconciles the economic, political and constitutional consequences which arise the following BREXIT parliament vote. There are enough evidences that the EU referendum result was influenced by lies and hubris of BREXITERS. Most of the UK citizens had no idea what they voting for. Most of leave voters hadn’t clued what they were being asked to vote for. The British High Court and the Supreme Court pronounced their judgement on BREXIT issue as Parliament vote is must to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. I sincerely hope that members of parliament will give careful thought to the BREXIT on behalf of your fellow citizens.

The Hon. Members of Parliament, I have researched and writing it from the ground up, UK participation in the single market is the principal reason for Britain membership in the EU for last 40 years. As you knew that Brexit must forfeit access to the single market. When UK remain part of the EU, UK influencing EU rules and profit from better negotiation power when dealing with US, China and many more advanced economies. Moreover, it allows UK to be a part of larger body that can deal with uncertainties of an ever changing world. Indeed, UK has many advantages being a part of the EU. It is my humble request to members of parliament lists the costs and benefits of staying in the EU. That can be very helpful in bringing sharper focus to this problem. No one knows that how a Brexit will play out for the UK economy both in short term and long term.

The Hon. Members of Parliament, UK is the largest export market of the EU-27 nearly 16% of its exports. UK Business leaders exporting their products to EU member states makes cheap travel, low shipping costs, ease of communication and close time zones, there are no import tariffs shipping their products to EU member states, EU member states has very simple VAT system, zero red tape compared to exporting to China, India and middle east countries. It is not easy to deal with China, India or Middle East countries due to highly bureaucratic, corrupt system and markets are very small compared to EU single market. British business leaders can exports their products more to US but it will make them high shipping costs and import taxes. If British business leaders take the advantage of the US market, they have to start their subsidiary in the US.

The Hon. Members of Parliament, unless I am mistaken. when the UK joined the EU, UK was the poorest member in the EU after Ireland and Greece. Today, UK is wealthiest country in the European continent because 40 years of membership makes Great Britain wealthiest country. In my opinion, Brexit won’t matter much for the EU. Thus, most of the EU member states has developed don’t care attitude towards the BREXIT as UK is not a special country seen from here but just another member state. Brexit will be hurt in many ways. Brexit would cause tremendous damage to UK economically, constitutionally and politically. UK cannot sustain its 5th largest economy in the world and it is inevitable that it already drop in world rankings. UK businesses will fail, unemployment will soar, disparity will increase, Britain current account will get worse, larger international companies will leave UK and droves to the EU as trade tariffs will effectively reduce the company’s profitability. Brexit would cause Scottish may call for another independence referendum. Northern Ireland may leaves UK, Northern Ireland either call for independence referendum or join the Irish Republic of their own rights. Where UK shall be better off economically and politically? This would lead to an avalanche of British politics.

The Hon. Members of Parliament must understand that all member states have particular requests and needs. EU leaders must taken in to consideration for their member states requests and needs. Members of Parliament try to understand that EU cannot give a favourable deal to UK or Germany or France or any other member states as any favourable deal for particular member states might enhance anti-EU tendencies. Here I would like to recall the message of Sir Winston Churchill who delivered the speech at the University of Zurich , 19 September 1946, “if Europe were once united in the sharing of its common inheritance, there would be no limit to the happiness, prosperity and glory.” He was ideas about European unity. He insisted that UK should help forward all efforts toward European Unity. Therefore, I say to Members of Parliament“ Lets stay together as an EU for ever to make UK and the Europe a better place in the world. I have the honour Members of Parliament to vote for remain in the EU to make UK and the Europe a better place in the world. We are not just voting for ourselves, or our children or our grand children but we are voting for the future of UK and the Europe

The Hon. Members of Parliament, BREXITERS claims that if Switzerland can thrive without EU, then certainly UK can. In my perspective, Swiss economic structure is absolutely different from UK economic structure. Switzerland enormously benefits from cheaper Italian workers and very close relationship with German industry which thrives Swiss economy. Moreover, Switzeland has close tie-up with the EU and it proves that Switzerland work is almost perfect in everything, for instance, banking, watches, chocolates etc. I say with confidence UK cannot get the same sweetheart deal in banking as Switzerland. UK has utterly different situation.

The Hon. Members of Parliament, parliament duty is to act on behalf of country’s best interest. I most humbly prayed you as a member of the parliament; I would like to see a strong convergence within the EU 28 nations. I want you to serve UK’s best interest with utmost diligence on BREXIT parliament vote. Please do not destroy UK prosperity on the basis of lies and hubris of BREXITERS. Most of the British pointed out that EU has its problem. I agreed but the EU in its current form is not even two decades old since the Euro introduced. EU has covered a lot of ground since its inception. EU have to add lot of applicable results about the building a common policies, legislations and regulations in many fields. They are working on it to make the EU project success. You must know that at the end of the day, we need a close relationship with our nearest neighbours at least. That has always been the case for economic, political, security and cultural reasons. Whenever we’ve walked away we have realised our mistake and become heavily involved again, sometimes at great cost. I wish to see the parliament vote is best for UK and for the EU for generations to come.

With most amicable regards to you, Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

FULL-FLEDGED FISCAL POLICY COORDINATION IN THE EURO AREA 2014

2019-10-18T23:04:00.001-07:00

FULL-FLEDGED FISCAL POLICY COORDINATION IN THE EURO AREA

To,

The Right Honourable Prime Minister,

Mr. Prime Minister, we are facing wide differences in fiscal parameters across Member States. The fiscal policy coordination aims to achieve fiscal consolidation across Member States. It needs to be country-specific level because Member States differ in terms of private debt and the target of public indebtedness. The lack of fiscal policy coordination underlying weaknesses in economic policy coordination across Member States and there are clear differences in fiscal behaviour and competitiveness across Member States as all brings to clear-cut divide between debtor and creditor counties in the euro area. Fiscal policy coordination will act for preventing the accumulation of imbalances across Member States and is positively raise tax revenue domestically. Fiscal multipliers are not constant across Member States. For instance, larger countries like Germany and France have always an advantage because of larger multipliers but small countries always have disadvantages because of smaller multipliers, loss of competitiveness in the foreign trade and an inability to control public expenditures and revenues. Larger countries may manage well without coordination but smaller countries may not manage well without coordination. Fiscal policy coordination turns out that small countries benefit more from larger countries fiscal policy coordination, gain of competitiveness in the foreign trade and ability to control public expenditures and revenues. Indeed, fiscal contraction does reduce output substantially. Fiscal coordination produces as large increase in output. Thus, we need coordinated action for increasing output so that we can improve labour and product markets and reduce fiscal deficits must be done by each Member States in the EU except Germany. I can say with confidence that small countries are not able to maximise output with uncoordinated fiscal policy actions. This is why I see banking union, fiscal union, economic union and political union as a necessary condition for putting european Member States on a firm footing to put a final end to the euro crisis and for building a more resilient and sustainable economic and monetary union in Europe. Coordinating national policies is not enough to bring eventual economic recovery. If political union in Europe goes significantly beyond the current state of affairs, then only the banking union, fiscal union and economic union will work. So we need a far-reaching degree of political union, otherwise banking union, fiscal union and economic union will be undone. Banking union, fiscal union and economic union was held to imply the need for a political union. If I am not mistaken, Winston Churchill was the first politician to call for the idea of United States of Europe when he delivered a famous speech at the University of Zurich in 1946. In fact, German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed her support for eventual political union. Political union greatly augmented everything including taxing, spending and borrowing capacity at the EU level. Thus, political union will shift EU Member States to supranational institutions, overcome an existential crisis and to prevent a new crisis to occur again. What we really need is we would become one country that is “United Europe” that would become more united, powerful and all Member State has to stand only for the success.

Mr. Prime Minister, obviously, if we want to overcome an existential crisis, prevent a new crisis occur again, building a more resilient and sustainable economic and monetary union, gain of competitiveness in the foreign trade and ability to control public expenditures and revenues political coperation is essential. I most humbly prayed you as a rersponsible leader, there is much to be gained by your political cooperation.

Mr. Prime Minister, please accept your excellency, the assurances of European Parliament, European Council and European Commission highest consideration of your political cooperation.

ATHINARAYANAN SANJEEVRAJA

Copy to

The Federal Chancellor of Austria Mr. Werner Faymann

Belgium Prime Minister Mr. Elio Di Rupo

The President of the Cyprus Republic Mr. Nicos Anastasiades

The Prime Minister of the Republic of Estonia Mr. Taavi Roivas

The Prime Minister of the Republic of Finland Mr. Jyrki Katainen

The President of the French Republic Mr. Francois Hollande

The Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel

The Prime Minister of Greece Mr. Antonis Samaras

The Prime Minister of Ireland Mr. Enda Kenny

Italy’s Prime Minister Mr. Matteo Renzi

The Prime Minister of the Republic of Latvia Ms. Laimdota Straujuma

The Prime Minister of the Luxembourg Mr. Xavier Bettel

The Prime Minister of Malta Mr. Joseph Muscat

The Prime Minister of Netherland Mr. Mark Rutte

The Prime Minister of the Portuguese Republic Mr. Pedro Passos Coelho

The Prime Minister of Slovakia Mr. Robert Fico

The Prime Minister of Slovenia Ms. Alenka Bratusek

The Prime Minister of Spain Mr. Mariano Rajoy

THANK YOU NOTE TO THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT 2014

2019-10-18T23:00:00.002-07:00

Hon. President, I would like to begin by thanking you, your government and the Members of the US Congress for their generous support of transatlantic relationship with the EU. I have every confidence that your leadership inscribed rich chapter in the history on world’s largest free-trade deal with EU and make the EU even stronger. That is my vision as well for the future of EU stronger ever. I firmly believe that transatlantic relations remain a top priority for the US and the EU for future growth. “PARTNER IN GROWTH” will be a significant for future of the US and the EU on the international stage.”

Once again, Thank you Mr. President for world’s largest free-trade deal with EU and make the EU stronger!

AN AMBITIOUS SUMMIT TOWARDS WORLD’S LARGEST FREE-TRADE DEAL WITH EU

2019-10-18T22:59:00.001-07:00

Hon. American President Mr. Barack Obama,

Mr. President, it is a great pleasure writing to you again on transatlantic relationship for European Union and the United States of America. America is Europe’s closest partner in Transatlantic Trade and Investment. It would be the most significant bilateral FTA. It does matter because it’s covering approximately 50 percent of global output, 30 percent of world merchandise trade and 20 percent of global FDI. Thus, both US and EU gains for fiscal consolidation and high employment as no additional spending or borrowing will be needed to achieve fiscal consolidation and high employment of the US and the EU. Indeed, cost reductions will benefit businesses and generate growth and employment in the US and the EU but reducing barriers to business would accord greatest economic benefits than tariffs as tariffs between the EU and US are already low. I hope that this press conference to commit to remove all duties on transatlantic trade and enhance trade in value added. Moreover, trade and investment liberalisation is the most important potential gains to remove all necessary and costly bottlenecks to trade and investment and reducing barriers to business in the US and the EU to achieve fiscal consolidation and high employment. Now the EU has the opportunity to show the world just how effective such cooperation can be and can deliver results on the world stage. In my opinion, US standards of regulation are not necessarily equal or higher than EU standards as financial regulation is stricter in the US than EU whereas data protection, environmental and consumer protection standards tend to be higher in the EU than US. Thus, EU-US transatlantic relations only success if lower or compatible standards prevail, in practice. I urge that US negotiators to strive for a comprehensive, ambitious and compatibility standards of the US and the EU in all sectors to accelerate the growth and employment of the US and the EU. EU-US transatlantic trade should enshrine institutional competition in monetary policy, tax policy, the US foreign account deficit, EU foreign account deficit, the euro-dollar exchange rate, public services and the state of the transatlantic trade relationship should be balanced. It should remove regulatory barriers by proactive and pre-emptive measures to eliminate existing barriers and prevent future ones and should strive for regulatory convergence, ex ante as well as ex post convergence.

Mr. President, at an institutional level, US development policy already experiencing significant changes in your administration whereas the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty will bring positive changes in the EU. However, we should not forgotten that any effort to change development policy or standards to accelerate the growth and employment of the US and the EU.

Mr. President, I have an unyielding faith with US negotiators to strive for compatibility standards with EU negotiators in all sectors to accelerate the economic growth and employment of the US and the EU and deliver results on the world stage.

Thank you for your attention Mr. President!

God Bless You! God Bless United States of America and the Europe!

ATHINARAYANAN SANJEEVRAJA

APRIL 3, 2014

DIFFICULTIES IN ADDRESSING INTERNATIONAL ISSUES OR ADVISING GOVERNMENTS ON SOUND POLICIES

2019-10-18T04:52:00.000-07:00

DIFFICULTIES IN ADDRESSING INTERNATIONAL ISSUES OR ADVISING GOVERNMENTS ON SOUND POLICIES

From my perspectives, addressing international issues or advising governments on sound policies are incredibly hard. If any one found it easy, they are doing it wrong. It requires lot of analytical skills. For instance,

1. It requires serious fact checking.

2. It requires new or more persuasive arguments, persuasive arguments offers different perspectives.

3. It requires clear thesis backed by rigorously marshaled evidence.

4. It requires complete information and being wrong has been consequences.

5. It requires learning to right.

6. It requires integrity, honesty, fair and balance arguments on international issues

7. It requires paternalistic theory consistently with sound arguments

8. It requires collective responsibility in problem solving.

9. It requires good connections and opinions acceptable to leaders.

THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK INTEREST RATE HIKE

2019-10-15T21:13:00.002-07:00

SUGGESTION TO THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK PRESIDENT MR. TRICHET

To: The Honorable European Central Bank President

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

RE: Interest Rate Hike

Suggestions:

Good Morning President. Financial Times, London reported that ECB like to hike the interest rate. The EU’s EMU has a number of big problems. The disparity of practice amongst mortgage lenders leading to radical differences in the effects of the ECB’s rate decision in different countries shows how premature EMU. Mr. President, without true economic union, monetary union causes further inequalities as monetary policy set for the rich countries like Germany and France harming the interest of poor countries like PIGS.

Mr. President, the effect of very high oil prices is not easily countered in the short term. In my opinion, increasing interest rates simply adds fuel to the fire. By increasing the interest rate, ECB has not only made life more difficult for the problem of PIGS economies. In addition to that it made more difficult for businesses of the central and dominant economies.

The world second largest economy’s Japan also in trouble. I think that this is not the right time to hike the interest rate.

Thank you very much for your kind attention to this issue Mr. President.

Sincerely,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA INTEREST RATE CUT

2019-10-15T21:12:00.001-07:00

To: The Right Hon’ble Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: October3, 2012

RE: Interest Rate Cut 25bps.

Good Afternoon Mr. Governor. It was definitely a prudent decision by cutting the key rate by 25 bps. The global economy is still pretty uncertain. In US, if we look at recent GDP data, there is definitely not optimism there. In Europe, economy recovery is very slow process. In addition, China economy is slowing down which is the main downside risk of Australian economy. It is my judgment that, a decline in iron ore prices compounded with stubbornly high dollar compelling you to cut key rate 25 basis points.

Mr. Governor, each and every policy decision you are proving that you are the world best central banker. Your efforts to controlling inflation, interest rate management, currency stability and economic growth goals. You are perfect Mr. Governor in your profession. I think that you have made the right move this time too. A lowering of interest rates should reduce the value of Australian currency and ease some of the pressure in the export sector. The Australian economy is recording overall reasonable growth comparatively low unemployment and low inflation.

I am hopeful that there will be positive growth in next six months. I sincerely appreciate your central bank role in the success and wish that you would keep up the good work in future too.

Thank you for attention.

I am Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja with great respect of you Mr. Governor.

UK BREXIT DEAL WITH THE EU

2019-10-15T02:12:00.001-07:00

To: The Right Honourable British Prime Minister Hon. Theresa May

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: December 06, 2018

RE: The UK BREXIT Deal with the EU

Suggestion:

Hon. Prime Minister, let me start by paying my respects to you and through you to. One of your former Cabinet Minister Ms. Priti Patel is completely disingenuous and polemic passage. She misrepresented that the US is UK’s biggest national export market. The world knew that the EU is the UK’s largest export market. There is a difference between hearing a balanced argument and giving credence to falsehoods. Ms. Priti Patel is a third rated Indians, particularly north Indians are fraud, liars, moron and consistently mendacious. Mark my words. More than 90 percent Indians are fraud, corrupted, thief, and dishonesty. If you promoted Indians in your cabinet, The UK will become like India in the future. North Indians will destroy your country and their arguments are beggar’s belief. If I am not mistaken, she dismissed for running her own independent foreign policy. She was a Cabinet Minister for a while. She hadn’t read the ministerial code and didn’t realise that freelance negotiations with foreign powers were not allowed in the UK. It is unbelievable that she have been in the UK government without a clout of basic economic and legal principles. She does not understand that border checks have as much to do with. Collecting tariffs an ensuring imports meet regulatory health and safety requirements that the UK have a land border with the EU that putting the border infrastructure on that border would return the UK to the troubles. You have only recently resolved. The EU’s Canada option is conditional on a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It is odd that she does not even know that. The Canada trade deal was conditional on tough agreements on labour and environmental protection. This would preclude the sort of deregulation she was talking about it. The real minister has a duty to lead in interests of the UK and ignore the appalling damage of no deal. Third rated North Indians will damage the image of the UK. Uk has a privileged positions in most international bodies. Third rated North Indians will damage the image of the UK. Her stupid ideological leave campaign against the EU makes things much more difficult for the UK businesses and losing income for the UK exchequer. She prepared to drag the UK down. She has failed to publish one piece of evidence which would enable a serious debate on the economic benefits of leaving the EU. She is demonstrating her lack lustre intelligence, shallow thinking and poor attention to BREXIT and disrespect to the honest and discerning the British people. I am all for presenting a fair and balanced debate while addressing the international issues. I do not want to waste my time on demolition of Ms. Priti Patel (third rated North Indians) curious fallacies.

Hon. Prime Minister, you have negotiated the withdrawal agreement nothing more or nothing less. Your BREXIT deal with the EU facilitates the orderly and legal departure of the UK from the EU. In my humble opinion, for the UK to leave the EU bloc on any other terms will be contrary to the international law and will tie the UK up in legal disputes for many years. Remember.

Hon. Prime Minister, let me put it very clearly the growth of trade with the third rated countries or any corrupted countries is so much faster but their absolute value is so much smaller. Even a small decrease in the UK-EU trade would take many more years to be compensated by growth of trade with third rated and corrupted countries. The EU 27 economy is 10 times the size of the UK. If you want to negotiate a good trade deal with the EU, you are better off doing as part of the EU because it has bigger negotiation power. You must be aware of it, the UK economic system has been intertwined with the EU for 45 years. 45 years of integration is difficult to undo. The UK is a signatory to the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) and it cannot legally allow hard borders between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Have you read the GFA? The GFA says that the status of the Northern Ireland cannot be changed without the consent of the people of Northern Ireland. BREXIT is the deal which breaches the GFA in the real world. EU made it very clear that they back their member states and the backstop is an existential issue for Ireland. If the UK chooses to breach the GFA which is an international treaty, the EU will not cooperate with the UK. No deal BREXIT is actually illegal. The UK signed treaty and if the UK decided to break it, Spain will decide to break the treaty of Utrecht and take back Gibraltar. Mark my words.

Hon. Prime Minister, the UK is a sovereign nation and was in the EU. Treaties are signed by sovereign nations and are enforceable under international law. If the treaty was signed, ratified and then abrogated, the EU could pursue the UK in the ICC. Inevitable the judgement would be against the UK for sure. This would be quite serious for the UK. The EU gave the UK a lifeline to save itself. The UK should take it. BREXIT will carry the Irish border issue as a millstone around its neck permanently and it seeks to maintain a close economic relationship with the EU. Your BREXIT deal brought peace to Northern Ireland and was an excellent agreement. Backstop can’t have a unilateral way-out or it wouldn’t do the job it’s there for, which is to persuade various parties to trust the UK not to unilaterally set up a hard border in the Ireland. The UK, the EU, all the Northern Ireland political parties especially the DUP do not want hard border in Ireland. The whole point of the backstop was to ally the above mentioned parties fears that there would be a hard border in Ireland. The EU said that the UK will have the backstop until the EU can agree a deal with the UK that will not cause a hard border in Ireland. If I am not mistaken, the DUP agreed to the backstop in December 2017. At the time I have tweeted that it would mean the UK had to stay in the EU customs union and the single market until a way was found to avoid border in Ireland. I believe this concept very long time even before the Uk-EU referendum. If UK MP’s are fool enough to buy your deal, the UK will end with the same awful choice at the end of the transition period as it faces today - a bad deal or no deal. What will be lost forever will be the chance to reverse out of the botched BREXIT negotiation. It is time to inform the British public the truth. In my opinion, BREXITEERS need to stop squabbling and sign up to your BREXIT deal, otherwise, there is now a real possibility of BREXIT collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions. BREXITEERS did not even know about this issue. Even if the UK leaves without a deal, it will be legally obliged to pay your commitments to the EU budget 39 billion Pounds. The UK cannot escape from that. In my humble opinion to you, every MP should be given a copy of the full legal advice so that they need to make an informed judgement on your BREXIT deal.

Hon. Prime Minister, I just heard that the UK High Court accepted the case on the UK-EU referendum result 2016 on an expedited basis. The UK judges are working on getting the 2016 referendum result because of the deceit of the leave campaign. I think oral arguments on December 07, 2018. Full hearing and judgement are as quickly as possible, certainly before the Christmas. If the High Court sees fit to declare the UK-EU referendum invalid, various changes presumably arise. First, the UK’s Article submission is by its own terms, similarly invalid and the withdrawal process is at least paused. Then, Parliament’s promise of a legitimate referendum on BREXIT is shown to have not yet been honoured and to be still due to be enacted. Further, the legislative arrangements for the referendum are still extent on the statutes and may with such amendments as current circumstances require, be refreshed and applied to the provision of a legitimate referendum as was formally promised to the British electorate. If the UK High Court finds against HMG, the whole Parliamentary gridlock is thus resolved and a legitimate referendum has to be provided as a matter of good faith with three options now having substantial support and the British public having far better information than in 2016 and with proper monitoring of campaign funding and fact checking. A very different outcome is to be expected. It is highly impossible to claim any future occurrence about BREXIT until it has happened and making a judgement about which side has the greatest weight of argument. However, Westminster created BREXIT crisis and they should be forced to fix it too.

Hon. Prime Minister, BBC 10 ‘O’ Clock News game of revocation of Article 50. The Article 50 revocation can be completely sincere and in good faith. The good faith requirement means that A50 cannot be revoked as a way to get a better deal. You have a withdrawal agreement on the table and that is the only deal you have. There will be no renegotiation and revocation of Article 50 will not seek to try to change that. But your BREXIT deal is dead if it is voted down by the UK Parliament which leaves no deal. No one credible wants no deal including the EU. But your BREXIT deal could be resurrected if the British public show that they prefer it over no deal or no BREXIT. In those circumstances UK Parliament would have to support it. Your MP’s have already shown that they vote against their own best judgement in those circumstances. So the purpose of revoking A50 is not to get a better deal but it is a last gasp attempt to find a way to get Parliament to accept your BREXIT deal.

Hon. Prime Minister, you must be aware of that the UK national wealth amounted to 10 percent less on the day after the UK-the EU referendum. The UK’s FDI is decline crucially. I hope that you’ve found a way of coming up with the extra 350 million Pound a week for the NHS.

Thank you very much for your attention Hon. Prime Minister.

Respectfully yours

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

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Athinarayanan Advisory Authority.