The Curious Creature

Quad: The NATO of Asia?

2020-10-10T10:26:00.005-07:00

US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo travelled to Japan to held talks with his counterparts from Australia, India and Japan during the Quad ministerial meeting.

The trip was important for USA as can be seen from the fact that after the POTUS tested positive for Covid-19, Pompeo cancelled most of his Asia trip, except this Quad meet.

It's obvious why this meet was a priority for USA. Washington was at loggerheads with Beijing over a wide range of issues from Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus to its imposition of a new security law in Hong Kong and ambitions in the South China Sea.

Pompeo criticised China's policy of “exploitation, corruption, and coercion” during the meet. His counterparts though; namely Australia’s Marise Payne, Japan’s Toshimitsu Motegi & India's S. Jaishankar were more diplomatic in their tone.

In his speech, S. Jaishankar spoke of shared commitments that Quad members have "as vibrant & pluralistic democracies with shared values". Australia’s Marise Payne and Japan’s Toshimitsu Motegi also made similar points, outlining visions for a peaceful and inclusive Indo-Pacific, but without specifically naming China.

The nature & the vision with which Quad was championed by Japan's Ex-PM Abe seems to have changed over time. Abe's agenda behind forming Quad was to step up the co-operation of region's major economies. In this meet, it looked as the only agenda was to oppose China's aggression.

The Quad seems redundant now as all the parties involved, have been pushing back on China on their own now.

USA has started its trade war which has been going on for a year now. Japan has begun converting its ships into aircraft carrier to counter China's naval expansion. Australia has made a legislation to curb foreign influence which mainly targets China. And India's deadly border conflict with China is known worldwide now.

China responded just a day after the meet with the Chinese embassy in Japan stating that United States should stop "unprovoked" accusations and attacks on the country. The embassy further accused Pompeo of repeatedly fabricating lies about China and maliciously creating political confrontation.

Israel-UAE Diplomatic Deal Isn’t 'Historic' As It’s Shown

2020-08-23T12:20:00.003-07:00

If you think Israel-UAE deal is going to bring us any closer to peace in Middle East region, think again.

The 'Abraham Deal' announced on 14th August is an unambiguous win for all the three parties involved. More so for the USA & Israel.

The Israeli-Arab relations are no longer as hostile as they were 4 decades ago. Sharing common enemy - Iran, their armies or intelligence agencies have swapped intelligence before. This deal was just a way to bring in the open & legitimize this two-decades-old relationship.
Let's look at how this deal is going to bring benefits for all the parties involved.

The POTUS desperately needs a foreign policy victory. He is facing denunciation for not handling the Covid pandemic well, voters are waning interest in him & this deal allows him to say that he is the first president to usher in a peace agreement between Israel and an Arab state since 1994.

Israel PM Netanyahu is facing corruption charges back home, and this deal has made him historically important, having established diplomatic ties with 3rd Arab country, Egypt & Jordan being the first two.

The agreement enables the UAE to develop commercial, diplomatic and security ties with Israel. It could also give the UAE access to previously off-limits U.S. weaponry, such as advanced drones, just as Egypt was able to secure better American arms after its peace deal with Israel.

Though Israel has agreed to halt its annexation of West Bank, it not has been abandoned. It would be the next US administration who would have to deal with it.

Now it is to be seen whether more Arab & Muslim countries follow the UAE's lead & normalize their relations with Israel.

Simmering Tension in Galwan Valley

2020-07-04T11:28:00.003-07:00

The current Indo-China border confrontation may permanently change these countries' relations. After the first clash at Galwan River on June 15th, diplomatic negotiations have been going on, but they do not appear to be yielding much progress. This is the first time after the 1962 War that soldiers have died in clashes on the India-China border in Ladakh.

If this is not worrisome enough, Pakistan is also adding to India's headache by sending almost 20,000 troops to territories it controls on India’s western flank opposite Ladakh. P The Indian Air Force and the Navy are also reportedly on high alert.
PM Narendra Modi convened an all-party meeting on June 19 where he said that though India is a peace loving country, it can give befitting reply if provoked.

The crisis has impacted the broader Indo-China relationship. Many of Indian infrastructure projects in which China won the contract have been revoked or cancelled. Similarly, the Bihar government has cancelled a deal for the construction of a new mega bridge because two out of the four contractors had Chinese partners. There are also calls by the Maharashtra government to boycott Chinese investment. For instance, memorandum of understanding (MoU) worth $670 million signed with three Chinese firms is already on hold.
Then on June 29th, the government of India banned 59 Chinese mobile applications within its borders. As per statement of country’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, government had to ban these apps as they were mining user data and transferring data to servers outside of the country. But, timing of this ban coinciding with current border confrontation tells another story.

Slowdown Blues in India

2019-08-26T11:39:00.003-07:00

Rating agency Crisil on Thursday lowered the gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast by 20 basis points to 6.9% for 2019-20, citing weak monsoon and slowing global growth. This is lower than the 14-year average of 7%. Banks' credit data to some of services sectors such as tourism, hotel and restaurants, transport, computer software, shipping and commercial real estate is showing a declining trend. Data from ICRA too shows that seven out of 16 key segments contracted in the last one year. Out of these 7 segments, 4 segments related to auto industry took the worst hit.

The main culprits for such low growth are as follows:

1. Reforms like GST & Demonetisation:

Demonetisation happened in November 2016 which led to decrease in consumption, which further caused loss of jobs leading to further decrease of demand. Then came GST in July 2017 which also affected the economy, especially in the area of exports because of delay in refunds to exporters.

2.Tight fiscal & monetary policies:

To keep the inflation in control, RBI had kept high interest rates. Since 2016, fiscal deficit of centre & state was also running high. To keep this deficit in check, government had to decrease its spending. Both these aspects are detrimental to the growth of economy. Such high interest rates coupled with such tight fiscal policy weakened the economy.

3.External causes:

Too much protectionism ultimately constricts global growth. The US-China trade war has caused entire global economy to crumble. According to a Bloomberg Economics report, uncertainty over trade could lower world gross domestic product by 0.6% in 2021 compared to a no-trade-war scenario. IMF reduced its 2019 world growth forecast down to 3.2%; 0.1% point below its previous outlook.

Apart from above reason; in last 2 years of Modi’s first term, crude oil prices have also increased making economic outlook appear bleak.

Then there are uncertainties caused by the Brexit in Europe, the adverse impact of the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela which have also added woes to the global economy.

4. NPA woes:

Though NPA ratio started improving in NDA’s term, it is still quite high. At the dawn of 2019, while it seemed that NPA problem has been contained, the NBFC stress started building up. The liquidity crunch happening in NBFC has more ripple effects than public banks as NBFC’s are more deeply interconnected to mutual funds, banks, and corporate sector.

5.Bad governance:

India has a cornucopia of freebies and subsidies. Subsidies are warranted for merit goods like basic education, health and safety nets. But 6% of GDP goes to non-merit subsidies, leaving not remotely enough for other key areas. Fiscal deficits have been kept low on paper by accounting tricks. But the total public sector borrowing requirement exceeds 8% of GDP, among the highest in the world. This is one reason for high interest rates that hamper economic growth and exports.

No wonder India is no longer the 5^th biggest economy in the world. Such sluggish economy has caused India to drop down to 7^th place while UK & France marching ahead.

The latest budget has amplified the already slowing growth. Increase in the taxes on the super-rich has complicated the tax system without much gain in revenues. It has been one of the key reason for the flight of foreign portfolio investors in July. FIs pulled out over Rs 12,000 crore in July; the steepest outflow in 9 months.

The budget also raised the peak income tax rate to 42.7%, much higher than in many competitors. Foreign portfolio investors organised as trusts suddenly find they have to pay 42.7% tax, and are exiting, causing a crash in stock markets.

Trade War Hangs over G20

2019-06-28T07:02:00.001-07:00

Trade war. These were the two words on the lips of world leaders on the Group of 20 gathering in Osaka, a Japanese city. On Friday, all the early statements and gossip revolved around the “trade war.”

Xi Jinping set the tone. China’s president warned about the dangers of protectionism at a meeting between the BRICS bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

“This is destroying the global trade order … This also impacts the common interests of our countries, overshadows the peace and stability worldwide,” the Chinese president said.

While he did not directly refer to the United States, his message was clear and unequivocal.

In the past year, Washington and Beijing have been embroiled in a brutal trade conflict involving tit-for-tat tariffs on imports worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Along the way, Chinese companies, such as the telecoms giant Huawei, have been dragged into the dispute, suffering punitive sanctions imposed by Washington.

After trade talks broke down last month and the technology battle intensified between the world’s two largest economies, the shockwaves rippled across the globe.

Now, G20 leaders are praying that US President Donald Trump and Xi can ease tensions when they meet face-to-face on Saturday to discuss the situation.

Although there appears little chance of an immediate deal, they will be hoping a truce can be hammered out.

Trump at least made all the right noises about trade agreements. But they did not appear to include China.

“I think we’re going to have some very big things to announce. Very big trade deal. We’re doing some very big things with India in terms of trade, in terms of manufacturing,” he said at the start of talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The only real reference about the spat with Beijing came in a remark he also made to Modi.

“We actually sell Huawei many of its parts,” Trump said. “So we’re going to be discussing that and also how India fits in. And we’ll be discussing Huawei.”

Earlier this week, media reports suggested that Xi would not agree to a deal unless Washington lifted its ban on the company, which is recognized as a world leader in 5G technology and a key player in the smartphone sector.

During the opening session, Trump touched on the issue. “We must also ensure the resilience and security of our 5G networks,” he said.

French President Emmanuel Macron also called for a reset in relations between Washington and Beijing to get the “global economy” back on track.

“Today things are made neither in China nor in the United States. They are made globally,” he said.

In his opening address, Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, appealed for unity among bickering nations as well as later touching on the thorny problem of reforming the World Trade Organisation or WTO.

He urged G20 leaders to send a strong message in support of free and fair trade, warning that geopolitical tensions were rising and buffeting the “global economy.”

“With your help, I hope we will realize beautiful harmony in Osaka … rather than highlight our confrontations, let us seek out what unites us,” he said.

“Today, I want to discuss with leaders measures to further enhance momentum towards reform in WTO,” he added.

Eloquent sentiments amid the rhetoric of what is looking like a new economic Cold War between China and the US.

Spy Poisoning: Who is the villain?

2018-04-09T02:55:00.000-07:00

The political turmoil between the British and Russia has been triggered after the incidence of poisoning Russian ex-spy Sergei Skripal (age 66) and his daughter Yulia (33) on March 4, in Britain. Britain blamed it on Russia and ordered the 23 Russian envoys of to leave the country. Russia took similar action against the UK's envoys. In the first phase, the dispute was limited to Britain and Russia. After Britain decided to leave the European Union in 2016, it was being regarded as EU's villain.The Brexit is going to be implemented in 2019 which is also one of the reasons for the unrest in Britain. US President Donald Trump's 'America First' policy also contributed to Britain's fear that they are left alone in Europe. In the presidential election of the United States, the alleged interference of Russia has led to cause many problems to President Trump.

Under such circumstances, the British Prime Minister Theresa May has the opportunity to get the support of the European Union using this issue of poisoning. The United States has also ousted most of the Russian envoys. After the efforts of the United States and Britain, 27 countries ousted more than 150 Russian envoys.

When British Prime Minister Theresa May gave Russia 24 hours deadline, Russia's Foreign Ministry reminded her that Russia is the second largest nuclear weapon holder in the world. Russia has also been accused of increasing its chemical weaponry too. The US and Britain took the help of chemical and other destructive weapons to overthrow Saddam Hussein's rule in Iraq. The then-Defense Secretary of US- Colin Powell presented the false pieces of evidence of destructive weapons projects in the United Nations Security Committee.

Russia has asked for evidence which proves their involvement in poisoning. France President Emmanuel Macron has said that these issue of poisoning in the UK is attack on whole Europe's sovereignty. Whether it's America or any European country; Russia or China; all countries are involved in spying. Multinational companies seek the help of private spies to protect their interests. Now, cyber technology has replaced human spies. In World War II, Hitler's Germany had made chemical weapons which could create havoc. Crusader Hitler used these poisonous gas against Jews but did not dare to use these weapons in the war. Britain's then Prime Minister Winston Churchill used chemical weapons, regardless of world opinion. China is looting mineral wealth by investing in Africa. While building the headquarters of the African Union on its own, China has created a spy network that records all its operations. There is no doubt then, that incidents like Skripal will continue to happen.

Rising Military Dictatorship In Pakistan

2017-12-09T01:13:00.000-08:00

Whichever may be the country, fervent opposition to the radicalism always takes place by the conservatives. In Pakistan, the draft of the Election Reforms Bill-2017 was presented in Parliament. This draft made the government and the people disrupt since last 22 days. Once again the anarchy in Pakistan highlighted that the wisdom always fails against ochlocracy.

According to a certain law in Pakistan, all Muslim candidates contesting for elections have to submit affidavit. They have to write in the affidavit that Prophet Muhammad was the last Prophet of Islam, after which no other person became Prophet.

In the aforementioned proposed bill, this condition was removed. But some took this provision as anti-Islam & started opposing it. Religious fundamentalists funded parties like Tehreek E Labaik, Sunni Tehreek, Tehreek-e-Khatme Nabuwwat disrupted whole country. However, The government agreed that mistake has been made. It also withdrew the provision. But, the hardline fanatics were not satisfied. This incidence highlighted Pakistan's political instability. The evil consequences of driving the Nation on the basis of religion are consistently seen, because religion & logic seldom go hand in hand.

Six civilians were killed in violence caused by this incidence. 95 soldiers including 200 civilians were injured. Although it seems that the resignation of Law Minister Zahid Hamid has mitigated the protest, more worrisome is how such a situation was happened in first place.

Although the Minister of Law bowed down to the pressure, Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui, the judge of the High Court reprimanded Home Minister along with the army. This is some silver lining. Some such questions have arisen on this occasion. When instructions were given to desolve the agitation, why did the Home Minister gave army the role of mediator? Why the government had to bend the knee against the protestors? What right the army had that it decided to intercede? Home Minister Ahsan Iqbal had no answers.

It is expected from the army to be in the limits of the constitutional duties. But how can the army remain passive about the people who are taking law in their hands? It can be said that the unofficial alliance between the Pakistani military and local fundamentalists is no more hidden. Not only this, but the command of the army on the government is too, clearly highlighted.

This is also an indication that interference and impact of the military on Pakistani politics is going to escalate in near future . As a neighboring nation, India has to take notice this subject matter.

It is notable that in 2011, the former governor of Punjab,Salman Taseer tried to revise this very law, but was murdered by his own bodyguard Mumtaz Qadri.

Robert Mugabe: A Hero Turned Villain

2017-11-28T04:07:00.001-08:00

Zimbabwe's former President Robert Mugabe's cabinet has been dissolved by the new president. In The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), which was founded by Mugabe, too was a growing discontent about him. The military had temporarily removed Mugabe's imprisonment and he was given an opportunity to step down from the post in honor. Mugabe's intention after being elected to power till the next year's election and then give the post to his wife, Grace Mugabe has been knocked down by the opponents.

Mugabe, who gave independence to the country by leading the freedom movement, had become the inspiration for the fighters against the anti-racism regime in South Africa. Nelson Mandela, after completing his presidential term, handed over the government to Thabo Mbeki and later to Jacob Zuma. Mandela could have stayed as a president at that time. But he was not fascinated by power. Mugabe did not find this example good enough to emulate.

11 years of imprisonment for the country, good work done during the first ten years after gaining power has been long forgotten because of Mugabe's obsession of clinging to power.

Mugabe's career, especially since the 2008 presidential elections, has been controversial. Even before that, in 2000, his scheme of seizing of one crore 5.5 million hectares of agricultural land from white minorities without compensation & giving it to black people failed. Political leaders, activists, military and civil officials grabbed four lakh acres of that land. Zimbabwe was Africa's biggest exporters of food. Minority white people were British. Therefore, the wrath of the international financial institutions influenced by the UK, the European Union and the Western countries fell on Mugabe. The country's economy declined. 4 million people out of 15 million flee from the country. Mugabe, being targeted at the international level became more aggressive. As a result of insecurity, the monopolistic tendency increased in him.

If nothing else, Mr Mugabe has always been an extremely proud man. He often said he would only step down when his "revolution" was complete.

Didymus Mutasa, one of Mr Mugabe's closest associates, once told the BBC that in Zimbabwean culture, kings were only replaced when they die "and Mugabe is our king".

But even his closest allies were not ready for Zimbabwe to be turned into a monarchy, with power retained by a single family.

Chabahar: The port of Good Hope for Afghanistan, Iran & India

2017-11-08T01:57:00.000-08:00

Over the last decade, the foreign policy of India is to establish financial relations in regional and international boundaries. Knowing the fact that there is no possibility of getting any assistance from Pakistan, India was looking for other alternatives to increase trade with Europe, Russia, Africa and Central Asia. In this efforts, India's intention was not just to strengthen its political-economic interests with Afghanistan, but also to suppress Pakistan-China friendship and their domination. Chabahar in Iran was a useful port in that aspect. One trait of this port is that the port is near Pakistan's Gwadar port & from the port, it is possible to trade with Afghanistan and further till Europe-Central Asia.

A few years ago, India was pondering on doing trade with Central Asia and Europe through Gwadar Port & such wish was expressed to Pakistan; But Pakistan did not allow the permission to use this port. India took the rejection from Pakistan as an opportunity to start the discussions with Iran to develop their Chabahar port. Iran, on the other hand, was looking for an opportunity to disrupt the US-China-Pakistan dominance. They were ready to develop their own port with the help of India and now it is being developed. On Sunday, India exported nearly one million tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan from Chabahar port. This is a very important step from India in helping Afghanistan's reconstruction program. With this assistance, the question of hunger among millions of Afghan nationals will be removed. Thus, this port has allowed India to trade with Afghanistan excluding Pakistan. Since this port is in Iran, India's efforts to establish friendly relations with this powerful country in Central Asia also succeeded. Moreover, this new aspect of Afghanistan-Iran-India friendship will be a headache for China and Pakistan, that's a different advantage.

The trade that started in the Chabahar port should be considered as a milestone in the foreign policy of India. This is because Pakistan and China are trying their best to prevent India from participating in Afghanistan's rebuilding program. One part of it is that Pakistan has provided a big financial support to terrorist groups in Kashmir & Afghanistan. But three years ago, Obama began to call for withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and it caused a political instability in Afghanistan but India started participating in Afghanistan's rebuilding program. As a result, strategy of China & Pakistan of keeping Afghanistan turbulent and unsteady in order to control various terrorist groups and governments failed.

With the development of Chabahar port, India and Iran have decided to make full use of these port. The road from Chabahar to Zahedan in Iran and road from Zaranj to Delaram in Afghanistan has been developed. Due to this pathway, most of India's business will not be from the Indian Ocean but it will be channeled through Afghanistan to Central Asia and Europe. Japan has also shown interest in developing Chabahar port because it has given them an opportunity to enter into a technology and investment agreement with India. On the other hand, India has also signed an agreement with Iran Railways to start a railway project from Chabahar to Zahedan.

If the foreign policy is firmly asserted, the market becomes stronger and the country also establishes new allies. As a result of Chabahar port development, India has formed new allies.

Rex Tillerson's Visit Brings New Hope For India-US Relations

2017-11-03T00:08:00.001-07:00

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrived in India in the last week of October. At the same time, India's new Trade and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu returned to India from USA. Indo-US relations have reached the new height and as a result, both countries will benefit.

Currently, China is doing some worrying movements from India's perspective. China's also advocating Pakistan. On this background, discussions between Tillerson & India's Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and between US Trade Minister Robert Lighthizer & Suresh Prabhu have given rise to new hope.

Rex Tillerson criticised China's expansionist policies, especially their interference on the sea route. He expressed concerns about the intensity of Chinese incursions in the Asia-Pacific Ocean area. On top of it; US, with the help of India, Japan and Australia has shown initiative to prepare a startegy to keep Chinese expansionism in control. The Tillersan made the statement that the whole country was completely disillusioned about Pakistan. Pakistan has given accommodation to Siraj Haqqani and two more terrorists and Pakistan should hand over these terrorists to the United States.

In the last two and a half decades, the world's point of power has shifted from the Euro Atlantic region to the Asia-Pacific Ocean region. Chinese officials are fanatic about making their sole dominance over the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. In fact, they are trying to enter into the Arabian Sea from Pakistan's Gwadar port. In such an environment, it is fitting that the United States has taken steps to enhance India's defenses.

In light of these events, meeting between Trade Minister of India, Suresh Prabhu and US Trade Minister Robert Lighthizer in the US, has also been a historic meeting. Since 2005, Delhi and Washington have been more active in promoting trade, and since the turnover of the trades has increased from $36 billion to $100 billion in present & both states desire to increase the turnover to $ 500 billion in the next five years. India wants US investment in various Indian industries. America's capital needs a profitable investment area. These are well-known signs that both countries can increase complementary trade.

China: Pakistan's Lone Defender

2017-10-30T23:32:00.000-07:00

US External Affairs Minister Rex Tillerson recently visited India and Pakistan. China is in state of bewilderment after this visit because of Tillerson's long interaction with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in the Indian capital. Afterwards, the two interacted with reporters. Tillerson said that US openly acknowledges the role of India as rightful. Going forward, Swaraj and Tillerson demanded together to destroy the 'heaven' of terrorism in Pakistan. It can be understood that Pakistan is getting distracted from such remarks; but China is more disturbed than ever before, it has made an appeal to whole world to help Pakistan. The spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry has stated that Pakistan is trying hard in eradicating terrorism. Actually, There is no reason why the Indo-US negotiations and the mention of Pakistan that came in it to become an important subject for China.

India is constantly suffering from terrorism & it is no more hidden that terrorism is rooted in Pakistan. After it came in the light that Pakistan provided shelter to Osama bin Laden, Pakistani mask has fallen in front of the whole world. In the last decade, the US too, had to suffer in the Afghan region, situated next to Pakistan. That is why so many countries in the world have started to speak against Pakistan's national terrorist policy. It can be seen from the exponential decline in various subsidies and security assistance that Pakistan has been receiving for so long from the USA. There is a continuous discussion in the world regarding this matter on which Pakistan has no answer. That's why Pakistan's only defender, China always has been abashed regarding it's support for Pakistan. Now as US has begun asking India for it's assistance in blocking the Pakistani jihadist activities in Afghan territory, China has become upset about it. Because, if America-India cooperation began, China would have no use of Pakistan's friendship on its west or south border. If the jihad is fully controlled or eradicated in Pakistan, then there will be no way to beleaguer India. So China has to take the lead in advocating Pakistan. In fact, Pak now has become a lonely country in the world and it is becoming harder & harder for China to take its stand.

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & many other countries are also fed up with the exploitation of Pakistan's jihadist and intelligence agencies. Because,it has continued to take the minority Muslim people of any country and carry out the activities of jihadist violence. To end the Afghan war, US poured billions of dollars; but there too the Taliban or other jihadist groups have ransacked by assistance of Pakistan. As jihadi violence is spreading worldwide, its rooting will eventually come to Pakistan. Even Muslims in Arabian countries are persecuting Pakistan.

China’s investment in Pakistan has reached $62 billion

In the last decade, China has made huge investments in Pakistan in the light of its ambitious economic expansion, and yet China has not got any financial benefit from it. In such a situation, if Pakistan goes bankrupt and anarchic, the biggest damage will ensue on China. That's why China needs Pakistan not just to beleaguer India but also to avoid any economic crisis cropping up in Pakistan. That is why whenever the United States warns Pakistan, China gets more disturbed than Pakistan. Because, if US completely stopped its assistance to Pakistan, it wont take long for Pakistan to go bankrupt. Alternatively, Chinese investment may get wiped out in just one day. That is why appeals made by Chinese spokesman after Tillerson's visit to Delhi should be carefully reviewed. There are no threats or warnings but a mild language in that appeal. Is it not a sign of desperation which is coming from China's redundant appeal that we should not persecute Pakistan?

Xi Jinping and the Chinese Dream

2017-10-20T23:17:00.000-07:00

Quinquennial election in China have started from October 18. Elections of the Communist Party are pre-planned. The election of two thousand member council (the Congress), the central committee of about 250 members, the Polit Bureau of 25 members and the standing committee of seven members will be concluded as decided by the party. According to the practice, the current president will be appointed for five more years.

In the last five years, Jinping has assembled more and more power in his own hands and is surely gonna have full authority for the upcoming elections and the upcoming government. If all is already done, what is left for the discussion? However, the impact of Jinping's monarchy on China's internal situation and external policy-relations is an important issue. There are three major authoritative positions in China, President of the nation, Party Secretary and President of the Central Military Committee. Jinping is ruling on all three positions today. There is a tradition of two five-year terms for the presidency. However, there is no restriction of age or term for the other two positions and during the change of government, the party secretary is the chief-in-command. This gives the sense of how much Jinping has tightened his grip on power. Moreover, five out of seven members of the Standing Committee are likely to retire this time, so those who are going to be elected will be supporters of Jinping for sure.

About five years ago, when Jinping became the president, he started an anti-corruption campaign and after a few months removed his opponents from the council one by one and imprisoned some of them. This included political leaders, senior military officials and some social activists. The impact of these developments will be on China's internal politics. First of all, how will Jinping use such power? According to some researchers, this is a groundwork for the president's third term. China govt. has blocked 'Google', 'Amazon', 'Facebook' in their country.There are Chinese language substitutes for such social media applications in China. Therefore, it is easier for the government to control social media. The Chinese economy is second in the world after the US dollar, and its reserve is more than three billion dollars. China needs export and foreign markets to maintain the pace of economic progress, so it is clear why they are pushing 'One Belt One Road' (OBOR) project. Simultaneously, Jinping has started modernizing the military system.The army of 4 millions from long ago has now come to nearly 2.5 millions. Jinping wants to reduce this number to 1.5 million to make progress in modern weaponry, especially in air force aircrafts, navy submarines, aircraft carrier and cyber space. It is likely that there will be significant difference in the defense sector in the next five years.

China does not consider itself as a secondary power in the field of foreign relations. After Donald Trump became the president of the United States, China has started to see the flaws in US policy. Trump's imprudent, reckless remarks are helping China as America's policies are not as rugged and consistent as they were before, and China is ready to challenge them. In South China Sea, China has continued to increase its influence defying US and Japan, South Korea & Vietnam are puzzled on how to overcome Chinese domination due to US's vacillating policies on this matter. Chinese Navy had no special presence in the Indian Ocean until a few years ago. But now the Chinese ports covering India, military base in Djibouti situated on the east coast of Africa, the massive and ambitious project 'OBOR' is a sign of rising influence of China day by day. There is no doubt that this a matter of concern for India but there are some obstacles for China too. Chinese friends are limited - North Korea and Pakistan! Both of these nuclear-armed countries are completely dependent on China and China supports them for its own purposes.

Since Pakistan is infamous for being a country sponsoring terrorism, every event happening in that country is important for our safety. Under the 'OBOR' project, China has launched a massive scheme to finance Pakistan. Soon the results will be visible. Also, North Korea's atrocious policies and statements have created a very volatile situation. In short, if China wants to compete the US in the race of undisputed leading global power, it will have to maintain its relations with all the countries. Economic competence & influence is just one aspect.

Shinzo Abe's Gambling on Snap Election!

2017-10-16T23:59:00.000-07:00

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe decided to dissolve the lower house of Parliament unexpectedly on September 28 and take a pre-election. Abe's Liberal Democratic Party is having two-thirds majority in the house, still he is going for election fourteen month before the tentative date.

Shinzo Abe's career has been satisfactory since 2012, and Abe is unlikely to be threatened by the main opposition Democratic Party as it has decided not to run any candidate under its flag. Japan's former Defense Minister, Ms Yuriko Koike, formed a party named "Party of Hope" in the face of elections, when she was elected Governor of Tokyo. She established the "Tokyo Residents First" association and succeeded in the local government elections in July 2017. Since her "Party of Hope" has not been established at the national level, Abe now has no stern challenge.

In Japan, unlike India, election campaign doesn't go on for months. For election happening on 22nd October, campaign will begin on October 10 and will last for twelve days. The image of Democratic Party, which was in power from 2009 to 2012, was affected badly by allegations of transgression, rebellion and corruption. That is why the party has given its members the freedom to seek nominations from Ms Koike’s new Party of Hope. Ms Koike has said that she itself is not going to run for the election.

Till 2010, Japan was the second largest financial superpower behind the United States. Now China has taken that position & after China comes Japan. Japan's position was in jeopardy since it got hit badly by the economic recession in 2008. Now, the economy growth has stopped. The debt burden on the government has increased to 250 percent of GDP. The population of working age has declined & elderly population is on increase. Birth rate is decreasing & the burden of pension is becoming unbearable. Abe tried to accelerate the economy by increasing government expenditure in the last five years. After 275 billion dollar, now he has launched a new scheme of $ 18 billion.

Abe justifies his decision for snap election as seeking a mandate to stick to his tough stance towards a volatile North Korea and re-balance the social security system. North Korean dictator Kim Jong is giving nuclear threats to Japan and South Korea along with the United States. North Korean missiles going above Japanese sky are making Abe & Japanese people uneasy. To tackle this menace, Abe recently went to Beijing. He tried to persuade Xi Jinping that cooperation from China, Japan and South Korea is needed for northeast Asia's political stability. China is wary about the presence of US military bases in Japan and South Korea as US is capable of effectively challenging China's claims on the 90 percent of the South China sea coast.

As China - Japan's trade is worth four hundred billion dollars, Japan does not dare to hurt China directly. In the 1930s and 1940s, Japanese imperialism led to brutal massacre in China, the Korean Peninsula, the Philippines, Singapore, so China still has slight aversion about Japan. Abe has often apologized for the massacre happened by Japan in-and-after the Second World War. Yet, China has not given up its aim to teach Japan a lesson. North Korea's threats, nuclear missiles are part of that lesson. Now at this imperative juncture of election campaign, Abe does not seem likely to give a sense of danger to the people by mentioning this issue in the election campaign.

US Gun Lobby: 'Gun Culture' in America

2017-10-09T09:20:00.000-07:00

Although the American Constitution authorized the possession of guns, Barack Obama had made an attempt to bring some restrictions by making some changes in the law during the presidency. When asked, 'What do you think is the major failure of your eight-year career', Obama said, "I could not authorize the gun control policy, that's my major failure." You can get the idea of how effective the impact of American gun lobby is by Obama's response.

Nearly 60 people were killed and more than five hundred people were injured in the untimely firing by a maniac in a music program in Las Vegas. After this horrific massacre, the matter of 'Gun Culture' will again be debated. But is some change really going to occur; the question, as usual, will remain inconclusive. This is not the first such kind of massacre. Last year, 49 people died in firing at the nightclub in Orlando. Earlier to that,a person killed twenty students at Newtown in Connecticut province. He also did an act of matricide. The list is too big. Statistically, on average, 130 people die in gun firing incidents annually. These incidents occur mainly at universities, colleges, schools, and music programs. Even though this issue has assumed such fierce nature, gun lobby supporters still advocates the essentiality of gun for self-protection.

It can be observed that rather than protection, gun is being used for attack predominantly. Political parties have to consider the changes in the law. But that is not enough. This is not to say that the abandoned violence will end only with some changes in the law. Sociological reasons behind such mentality need to be find out.

Police are investigating what was the motive behind the firing at Las Vegas. ISIS has declared that it is responsible for firing.There has been some doubt, however, as to the veracity of the group’s claim. Growing incidence of violence is a matter of concern for the whole world. And not only Asia, Africa but also the USA, the most prosperous country in the world, can't get rid of it is the bitter truth which has come to the light once again after this fatal shooting incidence.

Liberals Win, But So Does Far-Right

2017-09-26T05:46:00.000-07:00

Although it's a matter of concern that for the first time in 60 years, a far-right party has officially become an opposition party in Germany by swooping 13% votes; the immediate demonstrations against these party and the decision taken by all other political parties not to compromise with it in any way also has to be noted. Angela Merkel will have to face the challenge of maintaining the European community while facing the xenophobic opposition party.

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany at the Christian
Democrats’ headquarters in Berlin

After the defeat of Hitler, for the first time in the German Parliament, the 'Alternatives for Germany' (AFD), the Nazi party has garnered 13 % of votes and 88 seats. Merkel's Christian Democratic Party is leading a centrist vote in Germany. Not leftist, not rightist, not socialist, not nationalist; but a center-right is the form Merkel has given to the party. Since the majority of the people accepted this form, their party would get the majority. The situation changed after 2015.

After the demise of Syria and the emergence of ISIS, the expatriates from Syria and other Arab countries came to Europe, to Germany. People from poor countries in Africa and Asia moved to Europe and Germany with the impression that they could become rich after going to Europe. It was not possible for Germany to impede such enormous volume. Merkel proposed to accommodate those people. These people from outside were Muslim. Many people in Germany did not want these outsiders. There is an old shade behind this feeling. Germans are the people of the Aryan race. Hitler impressed upon the people that the Jewish people had not only come to Germany but also have tainted the Aryan country. Nazism not only opposes the Jewish people but opposes all the strangers. The announcement of 'Germany for Germans' after 2015 felt alluring even to non-Nazi people. From this point of view, in the current elections, by garnering 13% votes, the alternative Germany Party (AFD) became an official opposition party. Some voters of Merkel's middle party and Martin Schultz's Socialist Party turned to this alternative Germany party.

“We will go after them,” Alexander Gauland, one of the leaders of Alternative
for Germany, told party supporters. “We will claim back our country.”

There is one more story. After the recession of 2008, the financial position of Europe was affected. Except for Germany, the economic growth slowdown, investment slowdown, production decline and unemployment among other European countries increased. Merkel played a role that would help the affected countries to improve their status by financial discipline. However, the countries like Greece, Britain, etc. were not ready to be disciplined; they became uneased by Germany's policy. Those and the other countries started the language of exiting from the European community.

This reaction in Europe provoked regression in Germany- “The Europeans are anti-Germans, why should we take their responsibility; instead, we should leave the community and let them look after themselves”. Many people in Germany thought the same. They did not even vote for Merkel but voted for alternative German parties. Some of the votes went to the Free Democratic Party and some to the Environmental Greens Party. Though by gaining 33 % of the votes, Merkel's party has become the single largest party, more than 10% of the vote has gone because of this policy.

People who do not agree with Merkel have been growing for two years in Germany, yet the public believes that Merkel is a stable, efficient and strategic leader. In the speech that she did after coming to power, she said she is ready to understand what the AFD's party has to say. "We'll also communicate with people who have different opinions from us", she said.

It seems that she will establish the government with ‘Free Democrats’ & ‘Greens’.

Cambodia : From Democracy To Outright Dictatorship

2017-09-23T05:50:00.000-07:00

On September 4, the final edition of Cambodia’s oldest English-language daily rolled off the presses. The Cambodia Daily, founded in 1993, was a respected pillar of the country’s small independent media. True to its slogan—“All the News Without Fear or Favor”—the newspaper had forged a reputation for meticulous reporting and hard-hitting exposes. A month earlier, the Cambodian government, under the long-ruling Prime Minister Hun Sen, had hit the paper's publishers with a $6.3 million tax bill, ordering them to pay up or “pack up.” Such astronomical tax bill made sure that they will have to take the latter one.

Final front page of The Cambodia Daily

“We have been a burr in Hun Sen’s side for the entire time that we have been operating,” said the newspaper’s American editor-in-chief, Jodie DeJonge.

“This paper takes special pride in writing about some of the toughest issues,” she said as office workers packed belongings into cardboard boxes.

Hun Sen defended the deadline given to the paper, saying it had to pay tax the same as any other business.

“When they didn’t pay and we asked them to leave the country, they said we are a dictatorship,” he said.

The paper’s last day coincided with the arrest of the Cambodian opposition leader, Kem Sokha—an incident that made the front cover of the Daily’s final issue. Kem Sokha,who heads the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), has since been moved to a remote prison in eastern Cambodia. He faces 15–30 years in prison and has been
charged with treason for conspiring with the United States to overthrow the Cambodian government.

As evidence, the authorities produced a video of Kem Sokha giving a talk in Australia in 2013, in which he describes meeting overseas experts “hired by the Americans in order to advise me on the strategy to change the leaders.” This, the government claimed, was proof of a conspiracy aimed at delivering a coup.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen casting his ballot

The closure of the Daily and the arrest of Kem Sokha represent unprecedented steps for Hun Sen, who has ruled in various guises since 1985.

Periods of repression are a regular feature of Cambodian political life and have occurred periodically over the past quarter century, usually ahead of elections.

It is also striking in that it has been accompanied by a sharp turn against the United States. Over the past year, Cambodia has pulled out of Angkor Sentinel, an annual bilateral military exercise, and kicked out a U.S. naval engineering battalion that was building school bathrooms and maternity wards in rural Cambodia. Following last month’s claims of a U.S. plot against the government, it silenced local radio stations relaying broadcasts from the U.S.-funded Voice of America and Radio Free Asia and ordered the closure of the National Democratic Institute (NDI), a U.S.-funded pro-democracy nongovernmental organization, which has been working in Cambodia since 1992.

According to most observers of Cambodian politics, the proximate cause of Hun Sen’s crackdown is the national elections scheduled for July 2018. The CPP is bent on avoiding a repeat of the last election in 2013, when the CNRP scored surprise gains on the back of rising public discontent related to land issues, corruption, and clotted government institutions.

The irony of Cambodia’s shift is that even as its democratic experiment ends, the pressure for change is building. The 2013 election was accompanied by massive public demonstrations of support for the CNRP from people who were tired of the outrageous levels of corruption and cronyism that have flourished under Hun Sen’s rule. That combined with recent deeds committed by Cambodian leader are surely going to reflect in 2018 elections.

Vietnam: The Lone Opposer To China's Imperious Approach

2017-09-10T02:29:00.000-07:00

When it comes to the conflict of South China Sea, one must laud Vietnam's lone opposition to China's imperious approach as all of its fellow Southeast Asian neighbours have either changed their tone after years of intensifying tensions with Beijing, or are trying to stay out of this imbroglio, rather keeping their heads down and letting Vietnam alone take up the fight.

The South China Sea plays an outsized role in international commerce and politics. More than half of the world’s annual merchant fleet tonnage and a third of all maritime traffic worldwide passes through these part. Roughly two thirds of South Korea’s energy supplies, nearly 60% of Japan’s and Taiwan’s energy supplies, and 80% of China’s crude oil imports come through the South China Sea & China is claiming its sovereignty over virtually all of the South China Sea.

In June, the Vietnam refused Chinese demand to halt drilling by a Spanish company Repsol in an oil and gas block on Vanguard Bank—which if international law to be considered, is undisputedly Vietnam's.

Just after a month, when China threatened to use military force on Vietnamese bases, Vietnam had to terminate the exploration. The company behind the drilling, Repsol of Spain, was ordered to leave the area.
General Fan Changlong of China even paid a visit to Spain to raise China’s concerns over Spanish corporation Repsol’s involvement in the deal. By that time, Respol had already invested $300 million in the project.

Unfortunate for Vietnam, the expedition terminated only days after it had confirmed the existence of a major gas field.

It seems like all the Vietnam's neighbors and the international community has tacitly agreed to remain silent on this act of bullying by China.

After years of standing up against Chinese coercion, the Philippines, has transformed into one of its potential allies. All credits to President Rodrigo Duterte who seems like refurbishing Philippines' foreign policy.
Malaysia, knowing that maintaining good ties with China is paramount objective, is being complacent about this issue.
And Indonesia is happy to occupy a middle ground, resisting meagerly when it comes to Chinese fishing encroachments in its waters, but uninterested in taking a more active role in the disputes.

Vietnam has paid a diplomatic price for its activism, with China's foreign minister Wang Yi canceling a planned bilateral meeting with Vietnam.

Although China’s population is about 14 times more than Vietnam’s, and its military budget is $151 billion compared with Vietnam’s mere $5 billion, the smaller southern nation has a long history of pushing back against the formidable kingdom.

While this may seem a setback for Vietnam, it has continued to defy China in other important areas.For instance, Vietnam has moved forward with construction of artificial land features in the South China Sea. Yet Beijing is unable to publicly condemn these moves without appearing hypocritical, as China has itself constructed several islands in the South China Sea and has continued to install more military hardware on them.

Given the overwhelming power disparity between the two, Vietnam’s success will depend in part on continuing to improve relations with outside powers, such as India, Japan, and the United States, all of which have been more engaged in the South China Sea in recent years.

While it may seem a lonely fight, Vietnam's hard-line stance is important. It will surely create an opening for other regional powers to involve in the issue even as the axis is increasingly inclining toward China and its growing economic influence.

A Tale Of World's Most Persecuted Minority

2017-09-05T12:43:00.000-07:00

It all began when some Rohingya insurgents attacked police posts in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, killing 12 police officers. The response was brutal; setting fire to Rohingya villages and shooting civilians which caused At least 123,000 Rohingya to flee western Myanmar into neighbouring Bangladesh since late last month, said the UN.

Not that Bangladesh is being considerate as the country, in the past has tried to block Rohingya from entering the country considering them who have crossed its borders as having "illegally infiltrated" the country, but is not stopping the new flow, in part because their numbers are so great.

Little background; Rohingya are an ethnic Muslim group who have lived for centuries in the Myanmar. Currently, there are about 1.1 million Rohingya Muslims who live in this Buddhist majority country.
Shortly after Myanmar's independence from the British in 1948, the Union Citizenship Act was passed, defining which ethnicities could gain citizenship. The Rohingya were not included. However, those whose families had lived in Myanmar for at least two generations were allowed.
After the 1962 military coup, things took the worst turn for the Rohingya. All citizens were required to obtain national registration cards. The Rohingya, however, were only given foreign identity cards, which imposed myriad limitations on them.

So, to recapitulate; they are not considered one of the country's 135 official ethnic groups & have been denied citizenship which has effectively rendered them stateless. Such an irony that someone who has lived in the area now known as Myanmar since as early as 12^th century is still being denied the citizenship of that place.

Several predominantly Muslim countries have voiced concerns about the deteriorating situation & are willing to help the refugees.

Turkey, last week called on Bangladesh to open its doors to refugees, saying Turkey would pay the bill. Turkey has so far contributed $70 million in relief assistance to the Rohingya. The Afghan Taliban, who itself has killed millions of civilians, is condemning Myanmar’s campaign infamously known as “ethnic cleansing”.

State Chancellor Aung San Suu Kyi, has refused to discuss on predicament of the Rohingya.
According to chancellor and her government, they do not recognise the Rohingya as an ethnic group and have blamed all the violence that is happening on what they call "terrorists".

The fact is, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate does not have control over the military & has been criticised for her failure to stand up for the rights of 1.1 million Rohingya in Myanmar.

Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and her government have argued that the Rohingya are migrants from Bangladesh who do not deserve citizenship rights.

It’s unfortunate that government of one of ethnically diverse countries in the world is making such asinine comments fully knowing that most of these “migrants” roots in the area that go back generations.

Afghan Policy : Old Wine In New Bottle?

2017-09-01T10:50:00.000-07:00

US President Trump's speech in Afghanistan stirred mixed reactions in the world. Some in Afghanistan felt relieved including Afghan President Ashraf Ghani who stated he was grateful to Trump for this affirmation of support for our efforts to achieve self-reliance. Although for some, it meant more war, more killing & more destruction like former Afghan president Hamid Karzai, who stated in an interview, “There was not a single word about the peace effort. It was all talk of war, and we have had enough of that.”

Speaking about reactions, the speech sure enough perturbed Pakistan when Trump announced his strategy to change the approach and how to deal with Pakistan.

Calling Pakistan ‘safe havens for terrorist organizations’, he further stated, “Pakistan has sheltered the same organizations that try every single day to kill our people. We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting. But that will have to change, and that will change immediately.” Although he stopped short of cutting off military aid, as some Pakistani elites had feared.

Many Afghans praised Trump for his tough talk on Pakistan, which they see as a major source of instability and violence.

The speech included an unexpected swipe at India too.

“We appreciate India’s important contributions to stability in Afghanistan, but India makes billions of dollars in trade with the United States, and we want them to help us more with Afghanistan, especially in the area of economic assistance and development.” Trump said.

Kudos to Trump’s speech writers’ adroitness on the drawing of surprising nexus between Afghanistan cooperation to the trade imbalance between the United States and India.

It’s favourable for both countries to consolidate on Afghan policy, but snide remarks like “billions of dollars in trade” is surely a big no go.

India has already given $3 billion in assistance to the war-torn nation sine nation, not to mention the country’s new parliament building, more than 2,500 miles of roads, dams & hydropower plants which were built by India.

But Indian officials surely liked one aspect of Trump’s speech: his denunciation of India’s archrival Pakistan.

Now it seems that Pakistan is baffled by Trump’s request for India’s help in Afghanistan. As part of their defence, the Pakistan officials have alleged that Indian influence is the prime reason for the instability and insecurity in Afghanistan.

Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, to mitigate the perplexity of Pakistan, refuted the Pakistani perception about India's growing influence in Afghanistan. "Like Pakistan, Afghanistan is an independent country and has the right to have relations with anyone. India is our long-time friend. But I assure Pakistan that no one can use our soil against Pakistan and any other country," stated Karzai further adding that “…Pakistan & Afghanistan are not enemies but twins.”