SOUTH AFRICA: FUTURE UNCERTAIN

OUTLIERS PART TWO - THE STORY OF THE CENTRE FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 16:50:00 +0000

By Helen Zille, leader of the Democratic Alliance
29 January 2012

A year ago, I wrote about two young men, Asavela Rawe and Monde Simbosini, who both lived in back-yard shacks in a poverty-stricken community, and who had defied the odds by achieving outstanding matric results including over 95% for mathematics at their local school.

Their exceptional achievements (together with the overall performance of Masibambane High School, which achieved a 95% pass rate with 24 subject distinctions in 2010) prompted me to probe the reasons for their success. I argued that if we could identify the contributing factors we could try to replicate these achievements in other disadvantaged schools in the country.

After visiting Masibambane High and speaking to the principal Mr Rajan Naidoo and his staff, and a cross-section of parents and pupils, I concluded that a range of factors had contributed to their success. Most importantly opportunity (including facilities like a computer centre) and enormous personal effort by staff, parents and pupils, had played a role.

As argued by author Malcolm Gladwell in his book "Outliers", I found that the secret to their success could be attributed to opportunity, natural ability combined with enormous personal effort and finally, a measure of good luck.

I argued that the story of Masibambane demonstrated what was possible if hard-working people were given the opportunity to succeed, and if all elements of the education system were aligned to achieve that outcome.

The recent release of the grade 12 examination results for 2011 has revealed many new stories of "Outliers" across the country who achieved exceptional results despite huge challenges. This year, I have chosen to focus on "institutional" lessons we can learn from these results, rather than individual "outliers".

The most inspiring story is that of the Centre of Science and Technology (COSAT) in Khayelitsha, which was ranked 9th out of the top ten schools in the province in the 2011 matric results. This is first time ever that a township school in the Western Cape has made the top ten on merit.

COSAT is one of the 500 "Dinaledi" schools spread across South Africa. The Dinaledi schools programme was initiated by the National Department of Education in 2001 as part of its national strategy for science, maths and technology. The main aim of the project is to increase maths and science pass rates by identifying schools across the country to receive increased resources and support particularly for the teaching and learning of maths and science. Initially 102 schools were identified as Dinaledi schools in 2002, which has expanded to the current 500 schools.

However, while millions have been spent on the programme since 2001 – it has received a conditional grant amounting to R70 million in 2011/12, which will reach R105.5 million in 2013/14 – the programme as a whole has, sadly, failed to achieve the desired results.

The primary aims of the programme are to increase the participation and performance of learners in mathematics and physical science so that we have more university enrolments in highly skilled fields like science, medicine, commerce and information technology. These are essential to drive economic growth and development in our country, which are pre-conditions to tackling our core problems of poverty and unemployment.

However, a report released by the national education department on the performance of these schools in the 2010 national senior certificate examinations (NSCE) reveals that the number of students writing maths in Dinaledi schools has declined since 2008. In 2008, 53 469 Dinaledi students wrote maths, which decreased to 50 921 in 2009 and 47 760 in 2010.

Of the Dinaledi students writing mathematics, 27 109 or 57% passed in 2010, which made up 21% of the total number of learners passing mathematics in the 2010 NSC examinations.

The same trend can also be seen when it comes to physical science. While more than 39 000 students at Dinaledi schools wrote physical science in 2009, 36 861 wrote in 2010 – with 59% of those who wrote passing the exam.

A report released by the Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE) also revealed the limited contribution made by Dinaledi schools to higher grade maths and science passes across the country.

The CDE divided schools into two broad categories when it comes to maths and science performance namely, (1) independent schools and the top quintile of public schools; and (2) the bottom four quintiles of public schools.

The study revealed that in 2004, 6.6 % of all schools in the country – all falling in category one – accounted for 66% of the passes in higher grade maths. Very few Dinaledi schools fall within this category.

In 2008, the bottom 75% of schools only produced 17% of the higher grade maths passes, while 50% of the passes were produced by 6.6% of category one schools.

The same trend could also be seen when one studies the pass rate for physical science. Only 13% of science passes in 2008 were produced by the bottom 75% of schools while 50% of science passes were produced by 5.5% of schools falling in the top quintile.

While the national department of education still needs to release a report on the performance of these schools in the 2011 NSC examinations, only 224 635 of the country's 496 090 matrics wrote the mathematics exam and fewer than half of the candidates passed the subject with at least 30%. The fact that less than 20% of those who wrote the maths exam scored more than 50% suggests that the lacklustre performance of Dinaledi schools will have continued in 2011.

It is within this context, that COSAT's performance becomes even more remarkable. Instead of following the same trend as other schools in the Dinaledi programme, COSAT achieved a 100% maths pass rate. (The school also achieved a 93% maths pass rate in 2009 and a 100% pass rate in 2010.)

The question is: Why has this school, based in a poor township, excelled under the Dinaledi programme while other schools have not?

There are many factors, but I believe the most important are: student selection based on their aptitude for maths and science (unlike most Dinaledi schools that accept all applicants from their "catchment" area); and the selection of outstanding teachers.

There are critics of the COSAT model who argue that it offers better opportunities to a small cohort of pupils. This is an important argument and one to which I have given a great deal of thought. My conclusion is as follows: Many schools face such profound challenges that it will take many years of sound policy implementation to turn them into fully functional institutions. We are determined to achieve this where we govern. In the meantime it is essential that we identify those children particularly gifted in maths and science so that they can develop their talents optimally and contribute to the development of our country. It is not an "either or". The COSAT model can co-exist with our strategies to improve schooling for all. We do not support the view that "if everyone cannot have it, nobody may." This is the approach that destroys a country's prospects for development.

It is instructive to examine the COSAT model more closely.

COSAT was established in January 1999 at the False Bay College Good Hope campus in Khayelitsha – initially without the permission of the Western Cape Education Department. It was only when I visited the campus in November 1999, as then MEC for Education, that permission was granted to start a Grade 10-12 programme at the FET college that would be formally recognised by the provincial department. It is appropriate here to pay tribute to Mr Cassie Kruger and his colleagues for their vision in starting the programme and persuading me to support it.

Up to 2009, COSAT was managed by the college, which also subsidised the programme – an estimated R8 million between 1999 and 2008.

The centre also enjoyed a more advantageous staff allocation than the "norms and standards" applied to the allocation of staff at schools, and teachers enjoyed similar status to that of the college staff, for example the Principal of COSAT enjoyed the same status as that of a programme head at the college. This resulted in highly skilled teachers being hand-picked to work at the school.

Unlike other Dinaledi schools - which are ordinary high schools that have been identified for the programme - COSAT was established in order to select children from the surrounding community who show ability and interest in maths and science, to enable them to receive an excellent grounding in these subjects to prepare them for further study.

Most other Dinaledi schools cannot turn away children from the surrounding disadvantaged areas if they do not show an aptitude for maths and science. The initial requirement for these children to study maths and science led to plummeting results for many Dinaledi schools, and undermined the chances of those learners who would have passed if they had been able to take subjects for which they had a better aptitude.

The fact that the school was based at the False Bay College also meant that teachers and learners had access to first class facilities. As part of the Western Cape Department of Education's new infrastructure programme, the school moved to a new school building last year, which includes a new media centre, four computer labs, a mathematics subject room, two physical science labs, two chemistry labs and a technology room.

The new facility also resulted in COSAT enrolling Grade 8 learners for the first time last year, and learner numbers at the school is expected to rise to 500 by 2014, meaning 300 additional learners will now have access to quality education.

While access to proper educational resources is crucial it does not guarantee top results if an ethos of hard work and learning is absent. Committed and competent teachers are the crucial ingredient in excellent education.

A conversation with Principal Mrs Phadiela Cooper reveals the dedication of both teachers and learners at the school.

A school day begins at 08h00 and ends at 15h10, after which every learner is required to attend extra classes until 16h15. These afternoon lessons form part of a structured study programme where teachers identify and focus on learners' weaknesses. Learners who aren't having problems with the curriculum also attend enrichment classes where they work on more challenging problems. Last year, a group of learners wrote an advanced mathematics exam for the first time as a result of these enrichment sessions. All learners are also expected to attend classes on a Saturday. These afternoon and weekend lessons ensure all learners have access to an environment conducive to studying, which many of them do not enjoy at home.

Mrs Cooper also highlighted the culture of mutual support and encouragement that exists between teachers and learners.

For example, every learner receives seven progress reports during a school year, and after every round of reports a "Choc Awards" ceremony is held during assembly where the top four learners in each grade are recognised and awarded with a chocolate. While the actual award is small, the prestige of being called up onto stage and being recognised for your achievements is highly regarded by the learners. Mrs Cooper informed me that the entire school celebrates and cheers when a learner wins the award for the first time.

The staff is also committed to finding ways to improving lessons and existing systems at the school.

For example, while information technology (IT) is only offered from grade 10, the school has started offering basic IT lessons, including typing classes, to grade 8 learners so that they have some background knowledge by the time they enter grade 10. Teachers also find ways to make maths and science lessons fun, such as introducing robotics lessons, where learners get to build robots and which Ms Cooper says has become a highly popular new subject at the school.

Ms Cooper also believes that COSAT success would not have been possible without the support of the Western Cape Education Department and the district staff in the Khayelitsha area, who ensured there were no major disruptions when the school moved to its new premises last year.

In summary, the recipe is: Talented, hard-working students, dedicated teachers, an extensive after-hours support programme, performance monitoring through regular report cards, a culture of encouragement and recognition for hard work. This combination has resulted in COSAT becoming an "Outlier".

COSAT is not the only success story. It is one of three STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) facilities in the province that handpick students from disadvantaged areas to provide them additional support in order to develop their aptitude for maths and science. The other two existing facilities are the Cape Academy in Tokai and the new Claremont High School that was established last year under the auspices of Westerford High School.

The Cape Academy also excelled in the 2011 NSC examinations with 82 of the 90 students who wrote maths passing and 7 learners achieving distinctions. The school also achieved 12 physical science distinctions and of the 90 learners who wrote the exam, 86 passed. While the first Grade 12 class will only matriculate in 2013 at Claremont High School, the Westerford's Principal has indicated that the December examinations results reveal that learners in Grade 8 and Grade 10 have achieved results that are on par with the middle or top level achievers at his school.

While every learner, irrespective of aptitude and talent, deserves the opportunity of an excellent education, it is critical for our country's development that we increase the number of learners writing and passing maths and science. (It is also important to note that we have several "Arts and Culture" focus schools, as well as a dedicated "Sports" school.)

It is crucial that our country starts producing more "Outlier" institutions like COSAT, even as we work hard to build the quality of every public school. This strategy, we believe, is essential to the success of South Africa's democracy.

This article by Helen Zille first appeared in SA Today, the weekly newsletter of the Democratic Alliance

TACKLING CRIME — GETTING TO THE ROOT OF THE MATTER

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 21:38:00 +0000

By Helen Zille, leader of the Democratic Alliance
22 January 2012

This week a report released by a Mexican NGO, the Citizen Council for Public Safety and Criminal Justice, ranking the world's "50 most violent cities" received widespread attention from the local and international media as well as users of Twitter and Facebook.

Crime experts have questioned the credibility of the study which ranked cities by calculating the murder rate per 100 000 residents. Cape Town was placed 34th, Port Elizabeth 41st, Durban 49th and Johannesburg 50th.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS), based in Johannesburg, raised a number of concerns about the report, which calculated a rate of 46 murders per 100 000 people in Cape Town for 2011.

First, the Institute argued that it is unclear where the "murder rate" statistics were drawn from, in light of the fact that SA's most recent annual crime statistics only reported on crimes committed up to March 2011.

Second, even if the report used the 2010/2011 crime statistics, these focus on the national and provincial level, making it difficult to disaggregate and compare crime rates between metropolitan areas.

The ISS also argued that a comparison of international statistics is complicated by the fact that countries use different definitions for specific crimes and many also do not keep accurate crime statistics. In such comparisons, the more comprehensive and accurate a country's crime statistics, the worse it will look on comparative tables.

The Mexican research group's use of murder as the crime indicator has also been criticised because it often does not provide a true reflection of the extent of crime in an area. The ISS has argued that this is particularly relevant to South Africa where interpersonal violence between family members and friends is prevalent.

It is estimated that around 80% of South Africans who are murdered are killed by someone they know, often a member of their family. This crime is therefore impossible to police. This figure was supported by the findings of the 2011 Victims of Crime Survey released by Statistics South Africa at the end of last year which reported that 78% of murder victims were killed by their spouses or partners, friends, acquaintances and known people from their community or neighbouring areas.

In other words, within the South African context, a high murder rate does not necessarily translate into a higher risk of becoming a random victim of murder perpetrated by a stranger.

Local crime experts have therefore suggested that a more accurate indicator of crime levels, and the risk of becoming a crime victim, is the aggravated robbery rate in an area. This category includes carjacking and residential and business robberies and occurs mostly randomly by people unknown to the victim.

The 2010/2011 aggravated robbery statistics released by the SAPS paint a very different picture from the report of the Citizen Council for Public Safety and Criminal Justice.

The latest South Africa Survey published by the South African Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR) this week reports that according to SAPS statistics, Johannesburg tops the list when it comes to the number of aggravated robbery cases committed in 2010/2011 followed by Nelson Mandela Bay, Durban and then Cape Town.

The Institute also analysed the robbery-murder ratio of the four metropolitan areas. Johannesburg tops the list with a ratio of 15:1, followed by Durban and Nelson Mandela Bay (8:1) and Cape Town (6:1).

These findings raise even more questions over the accuracy and validity of the Mexican Group's report. However, the fact is irrespective of which category you use, crime levels remain unacceptably high across the entire country.

We do not believe it is useful to describe crime as a contest between competing cities. Each city must do what it can to bring down South Africa's crime rate.

The latest South Africa Survey also includes an analysis of crime trends since 1994 and while there has been a marked decrease in some crime categories for example murder (down by 38.6%), attempted murder (down by 42.2%), assault (down by 7.9%) and theft of motor vehicles (down by 39.1%) there has been an increase in other crime categories over the last seventeen years.

For example, cases of sexual offences increased from 44 751 cases in 1994 to 71 500 cases in 2008/2009. While there has been a drop since then, the number of sexual crimes committed each year remains unacceptably high with 66 196 cases reported in 2010/2011 – almost 20 000 more cases than what was reported in 1994. Perhaps this is a result of better detection and reporting, but it is a horrific statistic which should concentrate the mind of every South African.

Equally disturbing is the fact that drug-related crime cases and driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs cases have increased by 228.1% and 159.5% respectively over the past 17 years. Last year 150 673 drug related crimes were committed in South Africa and 66 697 people were caught driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs. The strong link between accidents on our roads and drinking and driving is obvious. However it is not yet common knowledge that an estimated 80% of all violent crimes are fuelled by alcohol and drugs.

This has been corroborated by numerous studies on the high crime rate in South Africa. For example, a study conducted by the Medical Research Council found that when it comes to domestic abuse 67% of cases in the Cape Metropolitan area was alcohol related and 76% of cases in rural areas in the Western Cape also involved alcohol abuse.

Experts have also found that the strongest link between violence and substance abuse occurs in societies with a high prevalence of binge drinking, high levels of public drinking and easy access to alcohol.

It is estimated that alcohol and drug related crime along with the many other harmful effects caused by substance abuse and related problems including foetal alcohol syndrome, diabetes and neuropsychiatric conditions costs government around R17 billion per year.

It's clear that if we want to take South African cities off "murder capital" lists we need to start reducing the rate of alcohol and drug abuse in our country, which is shifting billions away from frontline services each year and destroying the social fabric of our society.

For these reasons, in the Western Cape, the DA provincial government has made tackling alcohol and drug abuse one of our main priorities with the aim of driving down gangsterism, organised crime, interpersonal violence and road fatalities.

We have introduced a number of short term and long term interventions since 2009, which include:

• Passing the Western Cape Liquor Act, viewed as the toughest liquor legislation in South Africa, which will be implemented from April this year. It seeks, among other things, to restrict drinking in residential areas, clamp down on the supply of alcohol to illegal liquor outlets including shebeens and to create safer drinking environments. These steps will greatly reduce the drivers of and the opportunity for crime as people will no longer have easy access to alcohol in residential areas.

• The Safely Home Campaign has focused on stopping drunk driving, and has significantly increased the number of drivers arrested for drinking under the influence. The Western Cape is the only province to conduct integrated alcohol blitz roadblocks every weekend across the province. Our 'name-and-shame' initiative with the Cape Argus has also served to increase the stigma around drunk driving and has been replicated by other provincial governments.

• A comprehensive strategy to reduce substance abuse. Since launching this strategy in 2010, we have increased the number of treatment spaces in drug treatment programmes by 1300, opened the first rehabilitation centre in the province that specifically targets young people between 13 and 18, increased the number of patients receiving aftercare and recovery services from 500 (in 2009/2010) to 2,460 (including subsidised NGOs), introduced courses in drug and alcohol treatment intervention services in conjunction with three Western Cape Universities and enabled schools to introduce drug testing on the basis of 'reasonable suspicion'. A drug information website that serves the general public was also recently launched on our provincial government website www.westerncape.gov.za.

• The Western Cape Department of Health has launched a provincial-wide 'Booza TV' campaign to address society's views on alcohol use and to reduce alcohol-related harm, with special emphasis on alcohol-related violence.

• Our provincial government runs a number of youth development programmes that have thus far targeted more than 400 youths at risk to steer them away from gangs and drugs; and

• The Western Cape Department of Cultural Affairs and Sport runs over 100 MOD after school centres across the province which aim to provide after school activities, increase adult supervision and provide skills in sports or dance to learners. This helps prevent children from falling prey to substance abuse, crime and gangs.

Many of these initiatives are the first of their kind in the country and are focused on prevention, particularly amongst our youth, rather than simply dealing with the consequences once people have already started abusing alcohol and drugs.

If they work, it will be a major contribution to curbing violent crime, which in turn is essential to achieve economic growth and job creation, and create the social conditions in which people can live lives they value. When people take responsibility for their loved ones, they contribute to the development of our country, rather than becoming a burden on society.

This article by Helen Zille first appeared in SA Today, the weekly newsletter of the Democratic Alliance

Will the arms deal nemesis that dogs President Zuma’s every footstep ultimately overtake him?

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 15:52:00 +0000

Jacob Zuma’s day in court — which he once said he welcomed, but conversely did everything in his power to avoid — may at last be shaping up to actually happen. That’s if the Supreme Court of Appeals finds against him next month and sets aside former director of public prosecutions Mokotedi Mpshe's decision to stop his prosecution on fraud and corruption charges in 2009.

The Democratic Alliance has never wavered in its determination to see President Zuma in court to answer those unresolved charges; and now it is closer than ever to having its diligence finally pay off.

The court’s ruling, depending upon which way it goes, could be Jacob Zuma’s worst nightmare come true. It’s been said that his ability to run the country effectively has been undermined by the ever-present arms deal spectre; that he’s been too busy looking over his shoulder to focus on the affairs of state.

Veteran journalist and political analyst Allister Sparks put it that Zuma is a man compromised; that “his artful dodging of his day in court over the arms deal, which he once said he wanted, has left him with a monkey on his back that he can’t shake off. The wretched arms deal just won’t go away. It keeps coming back like a chronic disease, a little worse each time, so that it preoccupies his mind and leads him to make inappropriate appointments as he tries desperately to protect himself by building a laager of acolytes in all the key police, prosecutorial and intelligence service positions”.

Clearly the idea for the infamous Protection of Information Bill was born of the need to protect the ruling alliance from the publication of corruption and other damaging disclosures. Yet the irony is that the bill has united people solidly against the ANC, and, who knows, may even play a part in ultimately getting it voted out of power in 2019.

But coming back to the issue of the Supreme Court of Appeals: Jacob Zuma’s political and personal future hangs on its finding. If the court rules against him a criminal prosecution will follow, with, if successful, the usual ensuing ramifications, including a sentence to a term of imprisonment.

A lawyer, who is also an ANC office bearer opposed to Zuma, believes the DA has a good chance of getting fraud and corruption charges against Zuma reinstated.

Starting in 2012: South Africans are in for a rough ride for a number of years to come

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 19:36:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

Less than a week remains of 2011, a year many will remember as much for the escapades of ANC Youth League President Julius Malema as for anything else. They will remember it for his rants, for spooking investors with his demands that the mines and banks be nationalised and that white-owned farms be confiscated without compensation.

And for getting himself suspended for five years from the youth league and the party after shooting his mouth off once too often (threatening to help bring about regime change in Botswana).

Of course, Malema is fighting back, determined to salvage his political career, and even seems to have the backing of some powerful figures in the ruling party. So it’s not entirely certain the suspension will stick. If it doesn’t, President Jacob Zuma will probably end up fighting to salvage his own political career.

If you had to choose between them, which one would it be? The way I see it, it’s a tossup which of the two is the lesser evil for the country. Malema’s is the way of anarchy, no question. But are Zuma’s designs any better?

It’s become evident that behind the benign mask President Zuma is a ruthless man who will stop at nothing to remain in power.

We saw it in the run-up to local government elections earlier this year when he sat beside Malema on a political platform and listened without batting an eyelid as the youth league president hurled racial abuse, telling the black crowd that whites are criminals, and that if they accepted that whites are criminals then they should treat whites as criminals and confiscate their land without paying for it. Zuma appeared for all the world to be either in agreement with Malema or too timid to gainsay him in front of the crowd.

Actually, what President Zuma really was doing, was setting Malema up. Zuma’s silence emboldened Malema to make even more outrageous statements. Which he did soon after. And the trap was sprung.

The tactic worked like a charm. However, Zuma was also grappling with two other problems. One was how to deal with the pesky media that was forever exposing government corruption and malgovernance. The other was how to handle the country’s non-malleable judiciary which had persistently made determinations without fear or favour based only on the law.

No doubt the Protection of State Information Bill was crafted specifically to muzzle the media.

Which leaves the problem with the judiciary still to sort out.

Recent statements by President Jacob Zuma and ANC Secretary General Gwede Mantashe seem to indicate an intention to deal unilaterally with what they term an "unelected" judiciary passing judgment on executive decisions.

In a blatant attack on the Constitutional Court in August, Mantashe told the Sowetan newspaper that ‘the courts were acting as if they were the political opposition by interfering with the right of elected officials to make policies and laws’.

And during a farewell to former chief justice Sandile Ngcobo earlier this year, Zuma said: "We must not get a sense that there are those who wish to co-govern the country through the courts, when they have not won the popular vote during elections," adding that the powers conferred on the courts could not be regarded as superior to the powers resulting from a mandate given by the people in a popular vote.

From those statements it is clear the ANC is of the opinion executive decisions should take precedence over the courts. Which leads to the conclusion that the ANC is prepared to sustain democratic governance for only as long as it suits them.

Face it, the ANC’s moral dominance is slipping away. The press has unearthed so much evidence discrediting President Zuma and the government that the ruling party’s credibility is at an all-time low. At the same time the opposition Democratic Alliance is growing stronger and making inroads at local level.

So it seems that to consolidate its hold on power for the long haul, the ANC has decided to turn to repression. Showing solidarity with Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF is the first step in that direction.

Two weeks ago, ANC spokesperson Keith Khoza, speaking to the Mail & Guardian, confirmed reports that the ruling party would be supporting Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's party during general elections in 2012, saying, "We are consolidating our relationship as a former liberation movement and yes we are supporting them."

That’s about as unambiguous a statement as you can make. And it’s a fair bet the ANC has covertly backed Robert Mugabe all along. But only now with true colours flying.

So what does all this portend for South Africa in the year ahead?

Well, it seems certain President Zuma will sign the Protection of State Information Bill into law. And equally certain the Constitutional Court will chuck it out. The ANC’s response to that will set the scene for what will then follow. Things could get ugly.

However, the ANC is vulnerable as never before to internal divisions. Cosatu has been particularly vocal with accusations of ‘corruption in the ANC leading to all manner of malgovernance, thuggery and even assassination’ ( the evidence is plentiful and public).

Conflict between groups, corruption and the use of political violence has always been an integral part of the ANC. One analyst has referred to the ruling party as a federation of warlords.

But on the civil front, trouble is stacking up for the ANC with anger rising at the broken promises of President Zuma. When he took office he promised half a million new jobs in one year. Instead, the score after one year was a net loss of 900,000 jobs.

Undaunted, he promised to create 5 million jobs by 2020. It seeems President Zuma has never heard that line in Abraham Lincoln’s famous quote which goes like this: “You can’t fool all the people all the time.”

There is a sense the ANC is on a downward spiral. But the manner and time frame of its demise is uncertain. More certain, I’d say, is that we’re in for a rough ride for a number of years to come.

Starting in 2012.

DA announces new National Spokesperson, Mmusi Maimane

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 15:47:00 +0000

Helen Zille, Leader of the Democratic Alliance
13 December 2011

It is my pleasure and privilege to introduce to you today the Democratic Alliance’s new National Spokesperson, Mmusi Maimane. I am also pleased to be able to introduce to you today the newly elected Chairperson’s of the DA’s Gauteng South and Gauteng North regions – Khume Ramulifho MPL and Cllr Solly Msimanga respectively.

Mmusi’s appointment as National Spokesperson has just been approved by the DA’s Federal Executive, which is meeting here today, and so he begins his work as National Spokesperson immediately.

Both Khume Ramulifho and Solly Msimanga were elected to lead their respective regions in recent weeks, and so both have already begun their work.

All three of these colleagues embody the principles and values that define the DA’s vision of an Open Opportunity Society for All. I have confidence that they will be able to communicate that vision in a way that resonates with all South African’s, and especially those in the strategically important province of Gauteng.

The need to choose a new National Spokesperson arose after the previous incumbent in that office, Lindiwe Mazibuko, was elected as the DA’s Parliamentary Leader in October.

In many ways Mmusi Maimane symbolises our party’s future. He is a young and talented individual, committed to the values and principles which define the DA’s vision of an Open Opportunity Society for All. He exemplifies these values. He grew up in Soweto, his parents still stay there, and he has lived there most of his life. Through sacrifice, hard work, and a desire to use every opportunity afforded him, Mmusi built an impressive career in business and dedicated himself to community work in various ways. Earlier this year he was elected as the DA’s Mayoral Candidate for the City of Johannesburg in the May local government elections. Since then, he has served as Caucus Leader of our Johannesburg caucus.

Mmusi is the kind of person one can get to know well in a short space of time because his personal warmth, convictions and ability shine through. He has the leadership qualities, the vibrancy, the perseverance and the will to lead. In the coming months you, the members of the media, and indeed the South African public, will get to know him well.

The position of Regional Chairperson is an important one in the DA. Regional Chairpersons must ensure that the DA structures in their regions are politically active, present in every community and winning new votes. In that context, no two regions could be more important to the DA’s 2014 election campaign than those of Gauteng South and Gauteng North. The DA has made no secret of our plan to win Gauteng in the 2014 national election. To secure that victory, we need leaders who will work tirelessly between now and 2014, building our brand and welcoming all South Africans to the DA.

Khume Ramulifho and Solly Msimanga are two such leaders. Khume has served in various capacities for a decade already. First as a DA Youth activist, then as a Councillor, then as Leader of the DA Youth, and most recently as a Member of the Provincial Legislature. His constituency is in Soweto, where he has built our structures there to their strongest point yet. He is committed to the DA’s principles and values and its vision of an Open Opportunity Society for All.

Solly Msimanga started as a DA staff member, rising to the position of Provincial Director of Gauteng. Although he is fairly new to elective politics, having been elected as a Councillor for the first time this year, he has quickly shown himself to be a strong leader.

These three colleagues represent the young new corps of leaders who are rising through the ranks of the DA across the country. They are people of integrity, talent and intelligence, who have a remarkable task to fulfil – leading the DA through its next and most important stage of growth; that of building a new majority around the idea of a truly non-racial and prosperous South Africa.

This announcement was made by Helen Zille, leader of the Democratic Alliance

The DA gives Zuma a lowly F for performance

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 11:58:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

On a scale of A – F, the DA has rated Zuma’s performance an F. And that is mainly because “President Zuma’s pre-occupation with maintaining power has diverted his attention from issues that are crippling South Africa, particularly poverty and unemployment”.

“If the president is to better his performance, he needs to put personal political interests aside, and South African people first,” the DA said. And that’s not likely to happen anytime soon.

Time and again we hear these contentions that President Zuma is so preoccupied with staying in power it impacts negatively on his ability to administer the country properly.

And the contentions go further and imply that Zuma is terrified that when he no longer is the country’s president he may yet have to face the corruption and fraud charges acting NPA head Mokotedi Mpshe quashed back in April 2009 amid howls of protest from opposition parties and legal analysts.

However, the combined cabinet fared better than its president, narrowly missing an average score of a D (or 50%).

Top achiever was Science and Technology Minister Naledi Pandor, whose “biggest achievement has been her dedicated lobbying for South Africa to host the prestigious Square Kilometre Array (SKA) telescope”, and whose “ability to balance the demands of her department with her obligations to Parliament should be applauded”. Minister Pandor scored an A.

Minister in the Presidency Trevor Manuel, Mineral Resources Minister Susan Shabangu, and Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan were other high achievers mentioned.

Another eight ministers scored a dismal F alongside President Jacob Zuma.

DA victories only a preview of coming realignment

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 18:08:00 +0000

By Helen Zille, leader of the Democratic Alliance
11 November 2011

The realignment of politics has been underway for over a decade. The process will accelerate significantly during the years ahead.

Its outcome will be a two-party system in South Africa, where power can change hands peacefully through the ballot box, and politicians can be held to account, because voters understand the power of their vote.

The nucleus of one of the two major parties is the Democratic Alliance. The other is the ANC.

And discernibly, at an accelerating pace, power is shifting from the latter to the former.

Sometimes realignment happens in big steps - such as a split in the ANC or the merger of two opposition parties, such as the DA and the Independent Democrats.

Sometimes it occurs in tiny steps that are imperceptible to most voters. But cumulatively, over time, we reach a tipping point, and the ruling party is beaten in an election. This has already happened in many municipalities in South Africa, and in the Western Cape Province.

As the process accelerates, it is useful to join the dots, to see the pattern emerging. Three prominent "dots" appeared in very different parts of South Africa, where by-elections were held last week: in Thaba Chweu, Mpumalanga; in Thembelihle in Hopetown, Northern Cape, and the third in QwaQwa. Just six months ago, in the local government elections, all three wards were comfortably won by the ANC. Now other parties control all three.

For the first time in our democracy the DA won Ward 10, Thaba Chweu, polling 52.63% of the vote, compared to the ANC's 47.37%. The percentage poll (the proportion of people on the voters roll) was almost the same in the by-election as it was in the general election of May this year. This means that the decline in the ANC's support is particularly significant. It means people who voted for the ANC in May, voted for the DA last week.

The DA's support in this area has been steadily growing; from 15.06% in 2009, to 33.60% in May, and now to 52.63%. At the same time the ANC has steadily declined; from 74.64% in 2009 to 47.37% in this by-election.

Then there is Thembelihle in Hopetown, another ANC stronghold which was comfortably taken by an Independent candidate (and previous ANC ward Councillor), who won 52% of the vote in a percentage poll of 67% - which is high for a by-election and marginally lower than it was in May.

In QwaQwa, a traditionally safe ANC seat, the ANC did not even field a candidate, and the ward was taken comfortably by the Dikwankwetla Party, that beat Cope on a low 20% poll.

And in Cape Town, ward 71, a safe DA seat, the DA's support went up from 87% to 93% and we won the Westlake voting district for the first time since 1994.

As someone asked me on Twitter, so what? What difference does a by-election make? Many people have asked me what a by-election is, and why it is held between elections.

The explanation is this: All local governments comprise wards, where councillors are directly elected by the voters. If one of these ward councillors vacates a seat, for whatever reason, a by-election must be held in that ward. By-elections can show trends in voter support, and overtime, a by-election trend can gather momentum until it becomes a torrent. This is what happened in the 1990s, for example, when the Democratic Party began to win by-elections against the former New National Party.

These by-elections - the last of 2011 - will come to symbolise a turning point in our politics. A growing number of staunch ANC supporters are becoming increasingly comfortable voting for opposition parties. This shows our democracy is maturing. This shows we are increasingly moving away from "race" as the dominant fault-line in our politics, and focus more on principles, policies and delivery. This shows that voters are increasingly accepting their responsibility to hold their leaders to account. They know that their vote is their voice, and they are using it.

All this is positive news for our democracy. But realignment will not all be smooth sailing. By-elections, as challenging as they are, are much easier to manage than coalitions, mergers or party bust-ups; all of which will continue to play a role in the ongoing development of our two party system. At times in the years ahead, the going will be rough, but as Tony Leon, my predecessor always said: If you like sausages, don't watch them being made!

Our role in the DA is to read the signs correctly, spot the trends, and position our party in the non-racial centre of the political spectrum. If we get this right, we will govern South Africa before the end of the decade. There is more reason to be optimistic about the future of democracy than ever before.

This article by Helen Zille first appeared in SA Today, the weekly newsletter of the Democratic Alliance

Sisters raped — allegedly by cops

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Sat, 10 Dec 2011 16:16:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

A week ago there was another incident of criminal violence against women motorists by cops, and the lives of two Johannesburg sisters have been devastated.

Two of their rapists are now behind bars, but the sisters don’t know who to trust anymore because both men are police sergeants.

“It feels as though I have nowhere to turn to. What hope is there for me... men who were supposed to protect me hurt me... they defiled me,” said one of the sisters from her lawyer’s Sandton office on Friday afternoon.

The 27-year-old had stopped to drop off her sister at the entrance to the complex at Paulshof where she lived, when a cop vehicle pulled up behind them. Two police officers in uniform ordered them out of their car. The cops said they were searching for drugs and guns.

Apparently satisfied the sisters were “clean”, the cops drove off. The 27-year-old then dropped off her 24-year-old sister and immediately headed home to Fourways.

On the way she was stopped by the same two cops, who accused her of lying to them. They then dragged her out of the driver’s seat, pushed her onto the back seat, and took turns raping her.

At the same time her sister was being raped in the bushes outside her complex by two men who apparently had been following the police vehicle. It is believed the arrested cops know who they are (click here to read the full story).

Criminal attacks by cops against women driving alone at night are not unusual events in South Africa. And even being accompanied by their husbands or male friends is no guarantee women are safe from the predations of police officers on the prowl.

Two years ago, Sarel Olivier and his pregnant wife Martie were on their way home after a braai at his parent’s house. It was late at night and Sarel apparently took the wrong road. He turned into a driveway so as to turn the car around. Just then a police van stopped behind them, blocking the way.

Two cops jumped out and without a word grabbed Sarel and bundled him into the back of the police van. One cop got into the driver's seat of Sarel’s car with Martie still in the passenger seat, and with the police van following, drove in the direction of the police station.

On the way to the police station Sarel saw his car pull over to the side of the road and stop. He didn't think anything of it, after all his wife was in the safe custody of an officer of the law.

At the police station the cop told Sarel he was being charged with driving under the influence of alcohol. He left Sarel locked in the van until the other cop arrived with Sarel's wife about 30 minutes later, then, inexplicably, told him he was free to go.

Sarel found his wife sitting in their car traumatized and trembling, her underwear torn and blood on the seat. She told her husband the cop had raped her.

That wasn’t the end of her ordeal, because her husband freaked out, charged into the police station, and got into a brawl with the duty policemen who subdued him and detained him until he calmed down. By the time they accompanied him outside to investigate the rape charge Martie was missing.

Frantically the husband searched through the night for his wife until he found her at 7:20 a.m. wandering the street in a confused state.

Allegedly the cop who had raped Martie came back while Sarel was being detained inside, beat her senseless, then abducted her to another location where he raped her repeatedly throughout the night. It’s possible the other cop may also have been involved in the rapes after the abduction for there were two cops in the car with Martie while her husband was in the police station (click here to read about it and to follow more links related to the story).

And last year Jude Ward became a victim of the “blue light bullies”, the notorious VIP protection unit whose members speed around in unmarked police vehicles, with blue lights flashing, harassing motorists on the highways and byways of South Africa.

It was the second time in two years she had the misfortune to fall foul of the protection unit cops with hair-trigger tempers, who take extreme umbrage at motorists who happen to be on the same stretch of road as them, and can’t get out of the way quick enough for their liking (click here to read the story, and Jude Ward’s own comment to my exposition on SOUTH AFRICA: FUTURE UNCERTAIN a year later).

And if you think nothing tops the above events, let me relate an incident that happened earlier this year that seemed more likely to have been a scene out of a movie about the Gestapo in wartime Nazi Germany than in real life today.

It happened at night, outside the Kempton Park police station, when a 38-year-old police sergeant, who was in the charge office, was told by a parking attendant that a woman had bumped into a police vehicle outside while trying to park her car.

The police sergeant went outside and without a word drew his service pistol and executed the woman as she sat unarmed and defenceless behind the wheel of her car.

Then the police sergeant dragged the dying woman out of the car and left her sprawled on the ground. The parking attendant begged the police sergeant to call an ambulance, but he refused, saying there was no point as she would soon be dead anyway (click here to read more about it).

In my opinion women shouldn’t be driving around on their own after dark anywhere in South Africa. They’re just too vulnerable. And, as the above shows, not just because of lurking underworld characters.

If you’re a woman alone in a car at night in this country and cops stop you — be afraid, be very afraid. You'd count yourself lucky to get away with paying a bribe only.

Many South Africans don’t trust cops one little bit. And with bloody good reason.

But let’s get one thing straight here. The majority of cops are dedicated, hardworking enforcers of the law. It’s just that there are far too many bad ones within their ranks; and they befoul the reputation of the entire South African police service.

Corruption, albeit perpetrated by a minority of police officers, is endemic — and it percolates from the top down.

The former national police commissioner and president of Interpol Jackie Selebi is behind bars right now, serving out a 15-year sentence for corruption. And his successor Bheki Cele was recently fired for his part in a dodgy multimillion-rand police building lease deal. An acting police commissioner has been appointed in his place (click here to read about Jackie Selebi and here to read about Bheki Cele).

What does that tell you about the state of South Africa's police service?

UPDATE (14/12.2011): South African #sisterrape case sparks outrage on Twitter

Heath: Is this another presidential legal blunder?

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 09:20:00 +0000

By Debbie Schafer, DA Deputy Spokesperson on Justice and Constitutional Development
8 December 2011

The Democratic Alliance (DA) welcomes the President’s reported admission that he will investigate the suitability of Adv. Willem Heath to fill the position of head of the Special Investigating Unit (SIU).

As soon as Adv. Heath was appointed, the DA raised concerns about his suitability for the position given his perceived allegiance to President Zuma. These concerns were proved correct in Heath’s interview in City Press last weekend, where his allegiances were patently displayed.

However, questions need to be asked about the real motivation behind the President’s reported decision to reconsider this appointment.

Is the President really considering his appointment as a result of the comments made by Heath, or is he using this as an opportunity to cover up yet another legal blunder on the part of the Presidency?

First, the President knew Heath’s allegiances when he announced his appointment last week. That is surely the reason he appointed him.

What the President did not appear to appreciate was the fact that he is only legally empowered to remove the head of a SIU “if there are sound reasons for doing so”, in terms of section 3(4)(d) of the Special Investigating Units and Special Tribunals Act 74 of 1996.

The President has offered no sound reasons for removing Willie Hofmeyr. In fact, he has given no reasons at all. Helen Zille has addressed a letter to the Presidency requesting him to provide these.

Secondly, concerns have been raised that Heath is too old to be appointed as head of the SIU, given that the position appears to be governed by the Public Service Act, which compels people employed in terms thereof to retire at the age of 65. Heath reportedly turned 66 in January this year.

As the President has indicated that he intends to consult Justice Minister Jeff Radebe about Heath’s appointment, I will today be sending a letter to the Minister requesting that this issue also be considered, and requesting feedback thereon.

If it is true that Adv. Heath is too old to assume the position as SIU head, this will be the latest in a series of legal blunders by his office.

The most notable of these are the extension of the term of office of the Chief Justice and the incorrect appointment procedure of Adv. Menzi Simelane as National Director of Public Prosecutions. As Minister Radebe was involved in both processes, one has to question whether it is wise for the President to take his advice on the Heath issue.

We await the outcome of the President’s decision.

Statement issued by Debbie Schafer MP, Democratic Alliance Shadow Deputy Minister of Justice and Constitutional Development, December 8 2011

‘We cannot allow the "Zumafication" of South Africa's constitutionally independent justice system’ — Helen Zille

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 10:21:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

The DA leader has written to President Jacob Zuma requesting the reasons for the sudden dismissal of Willie Hofmeyr as head of the Special Investigations Unit, and his appointment of Advocate Willem Heath in Hofmeyr’s place.

And there’s good reason to want President Zuma to explain himself. In a climate of rampant corruption in all levels of government, why remove a man with an impeccable record in fighting corruption, only to replace him with a man some deem to lack “objectively and impartially” when it comes to the president?

That’s right. There is the suspicion — reinforced by statements Heath made to the City Press on Sunday — that he is a Zuma man through and through.

What we’ve been seeing for some time, is a developing pattern of attempts by the state, under President Jacob Zuma, to exercise control over all systems that potentially pose a threat to him.

Influence over the outcome of judicial determinations is one. And a lockdown of the media via the Protection of Information Bill is another.

It’s an intolerable situation. As Helen Zille put it: “We cannot allow the "Zumafication" of South Africa's constitutionally independent justice system.”

And we cannot allow the Zumafication of South Africa’s media.

Mandela's leadership long forgotten in AIDS debate

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 20:46:00 +0000

By Helen Zille, leader of the Democratic Alliance
4 November 2011

Compare these two scenarios.

Woman "A" has been in a steady relationship for a few years. One day her partner forces her to have sex against her will. She goes to the police station and lays a charge of rape. She immediately finds support from a range of organisations for her courageous determination to "break the silence". The media comment favourably. She is feted for facing the stigma and becomes a role model for rape survivors. In short, she is a hero.

Woman "B" has also been in a steady relationship. One day she goes for an AIDS test, and learns she is positive. She finds out that she contracted the virus from her partner who chose to remain silent about his status. She would never have consented to unprotected sex had she known. Betrayed and violated, she also knows that if she takes a stand, she will stand alone. If she lays a charge or sues for the violation of her physical integrity, she will be accused of "stigmatising HIV", "driving the pandemic underground" and "violating" her partner's "right to privacy". In short, unless she meekly accepts her situation, she is a villain.

In fact, under South African law, if her partner refused to reveal his status, she would only be able to force him to test for HIV if he raped her.

This is a consequence of the "progressive" line on HIV/AIDS, touted by people who actually have much in common with religious fanatics or fascists. In their blinkered focus on a free-floating single issue, they lose sight of the broader public good. Of course, they believe they are motivated by a commitment to "human rights". But they are very selective in whose "rights" they promote. They claim to "own" the moral high ground, but they hunt in a vicious pack to prevent anyone questioning their assumptions. Slacktivists is too gentle a word to describe them. They are more like an AIDS Gestapo.

That is why I am interested in a matter that is scheduled to come before a Durban court soon. In the first case of its kind in SA, a Cape Town woman is suing a Durban man for R2.56-million for infecting her with genital herpes, which like AIDS is an incurable, sexually transmitted disease. Herpes is typically dormant in the system, with intermittent, painful flare-ups, similar to a cold sore on the lip. In Britain recently, a young man was controversially sentenced to 14 months in jail for passing on genital herpes to his partner.

Although this is the first case of its kind in South Africa, the press reports of the Durban matter have passed almost unnoticed. There has been no outcry about stigmatising genital herpes or driving it "underground".

But then, this woman is middle-class and white. And her former partner is rich and white – a chief executive of a large company.

"So what?", you ask. "Why bring race into it? Surely the sexual transmission of diseases is primarily an issue of behaviour, NOT race?"

I thought so too. I thought we had, at last, got over the racial stereotyping that characterised AIDS denialism under Thabo Mbeki, who was determined to prevent the debate focusing on the need for behaviour change. Anyone who dared venture into this territory was accused of perpetuating the racist myth that African men are "rampant sexual beasts, unable to control our urges, unable to keep our legs crossed, unable to keep it in our pants," as he once memorably told Parliament. That accusation was intended to shut down the debate. And it did.

There is no irony like a South African irony, but this one beats them all: During the Mbeki era, anyone who dared argue that AIDS was a function of sexual behaviour and NOT of race was labelled a racist!!

The election of President Zuma, whose lifestyle reinforced the stereotype Mbeki wished to eschew, inevitably meant that the denial would deepen.

As the Durban court case illustrates, it is publicly acceptable for a white man to be called to account for infecting his partner with a sexually transmitted disease. But, not vice versa, according to the AIDS Gestapo. Who actually is being racist?

The Gestapo approach is riddled with such contradictions. But it still comes as a surprise to find traces of Gestapo logic in the writings of an eminent and respected scientist like Dr Helen Epstein who has written by far the most compelling and rational treatise on AIDS. Her book, The Invisible Cure, explains so many things about the disease that once seemed inexplicable to me, and there has not yet been a credible rebuttal.

Her book seeks to explain why the AIDS pandemic is disproportionately centred in Southern and Eastern Africa. She comes to the conclusion that the major driver of AIDS is multiple concurrent sexual partners. She coined the term "AIDS superhighway" to describe such sexual practices, at approximately the same time that Mbeki was so determined to prevent the debate going in that direction.

It is to Epstein's credit that she persisted, nevertheless. But it also explains why she is at such pains to prove she is not a racist. She seeks to avoid the "Mbeki stigma" by repeatedly explaining that Americans have more partners over their lifetimes than people in Africa. Serial monogamy, she explains, is far less likely to transmit AIDS than multiple concurrent partners.

Her case is convincing. Thus it comes as a surprise to find that she was prepared to use the Mbeki trick against me (and accuse me of "reviving stereotypes of the promiscuous African") simply because I refuse to demean myself by desperately trying to prove I am not a racist when I state a case that should have nothing to do with race. I simply ignore the tired and tedious reversion to the "race card" by people who have run out of credible arguments.

As in so many other cases, we can learn from Mandela's early example in the HIV debate. In 1992, addressing a meeting of 50,000 people in Zwide, Eastern Cape, Mr Mandela pledged that the ANC would face the AIDS issue uncompromisingly.

He said: "We as an organisation are going to take this matter seriously. Even the Government has not enough resources to deal with it. The misconception that our men can go around having many women, that is polygamy, must come to an end. It was all well in the olden days of our fathers but today it is dangerous." As with so many other issues, he was prepared to confront the emerging AIDS pandemic head-on.

But not for long. Interestingly, I can find no other example of Mr Mandela ever explicitly raising this issue in this way again. In fact, during his Presidency he seems to have paid scant attention to AIDS. I have often wondered whether the AIDS Gestapo managed to silence him too.

They will probably also go for Health Minister, Aaron Motsoaledi, after his comments last week, when he announced the latest AIDS data and effectively conceded that the government had failed to bring down the infection rate through current strategies. He optimistically described the statistics as an indication of "stabilisation". But the fact is, SA has fallen far short of its stated aim of halving the HIV transmission rate by 2011. The only province that has done so, is the Western Cape.

The news in Motsoaledi's announcement, however, was his breakdown of the statistics for different age categories. Comparing statistics of 2008 with 2010, he voiced particular concern at the 30% increase in prevalence amongst women aged 40 – 44; and the 33% increase in prevalence rates of women between 45 and 49 years of age.

The Minister did not mince his words. Unfaithful husbands, he said, were to blame for the upward trend of HIV prevalence in older women.

Motsoaledi said that, although the whole country knew the ABC mantra "to abstain, or be faithful and condomise" the country needed to "revisit that message".

"Condoms are working. The question is faithfulness," he said.

"We need to target the older age groups, the married couples," and specifically to "target the men". "We know that they have been very stubborn", he added.

Minister Motsoaledi, in his many statements, is coming to terms with the fact that our current strategy isn't working. Even Uganda, the "poster country" for what Helen Epstein describes as "pragmatism, urgency and compassion" in dealing with AIDS, is concluding that their approach has failed. It must be a mortal blow to the AIDS Gestapo that the Ugandan Parliament is reportedly about to pass a law requiring mandatory AIDS tests and criminalising the knowing transmission of the virus.

But in South Africa, we can always rely on someone to find a way to default to the race card. And believe it or not, an acclaimed scientist is now moving towards a point of implying that the HI Virus is, in itself, racist. I am not making this up!

Dr Francois Venter (once also the victim of attacks from the AIDS Gestapo when he supported mandatory testing) has now succumbed to their logic. If you can't beat them, join them. He seems to be finding the ultimate cop-out to avoid the debate on behaviour change and reinforcing denialism.

In an newspaper article, published last week, Venter said: "There is accumulating evidence that people in our region are more vulnerable to HIV per sex act than our European, Asian or American counterparts… It would appear it matters far more where you live than who you sleep with. It is extremely plausible that something about the HIV species wandering our South African bedrooms may be more virulent, or the genes in our population more susceptible, or some environmental factor we haven't discovered makes sex manifold more risky."

What a great excuse for avoiding tackling the much tougher issue of personal responsibility! I will humbly eat my words and apologise if science proves Dr Venter to be correct. In the meantime, please excuse my scepticism.

It is fitting to end this newsletter with one of Mandela's great insights on leadership in the context of the AIDS pandemic. In 2004 he said: "They must dare to be different, and they must be prepared for the course to be difficult. They will be faced with tough decisions, and they must come up with bold and innovative responses. This is what leaders are for, and the AIDS epidemic will test their leadership skills to the limit."

As usual, he was right.

This article by Helen Zille first appeared in SA Today, the weekly newsletter of the Democratic Alliance

Will South Africa's judiciary continue to be independent?

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 20:11:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

That’s the question weighing heavily on the minds of many South Africans. So far, the judiciary is the only thing that prevents the Zuma administration from tearing down this country’s hard-won democracy.

Twice this year the judiciary handed President Zuma setbacks in his efforts to surround himself with legal people amenable to his dictates.

The first of these events relates to his trying to unilaterally extend the term of the chief justice, Sandile Ngcobo. The matter went to the Constitutional Court which ruled against Zuma on the grounds that “the president can't willy-nilly extend the term of a chief justice without consultation”.

The second relates to Thursday’s ruling by the Supreme Court of Appeal that Zuma’s appointing of Menzi Simelane as the National Prosecuting Authority boss was invalid. This probably means that every decision Simelane has made during the past two years is also invalid.

A nasty tangle to have to unravel.

Clearly President Zuma and other members of his executive do not take kindly to being thus frustrated. And they have spoken out against ‘an "unelected" judiciary passing judgment on executive decisions’.

And after the justice Sandile Ngcobo affair, Zuma said: "We must not get a sense that there are those who wish to co-govern the country through the courts, when they have not won the popular vote during elections," adding that ‘the powers conferred on the courts could not be regarded as superior to the powers resulting from a mandate given by the people in a popular vote’.

In other words, President Zuma was saying that decisions of the executive overrule the law.

It’s an outrageous statement for a head of state to make, and it’s definitely a major cause for concern as to the Zuma regime’s intentions regarding the independence of South Africa's judiciary.

Batho Pele - Missing in Inaction

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 13:27:00 +0000

By Helen Zille, leader of the Democratic Alliance.
28 November 2011

The news is often dominated by a single important story, which sometimes "crowds out" others of comparable importance.

So it was during the past week, when the passage of the Secrecy Bill through the National Assembly dominated media coverage.

Almost by chance I noticed a small side-bar report that, in a normal week, would have made headlines.

It was the story of the four Mmupele children from a place called "Verdwaal" (which means "lost" in Afrikaans) who died of hunger and thirst in the veld as they went in search of their mothers who had gone to look for work or food on a neighbouring farm. The children were aged 9, 7, 6 and 2. They reportedly set out on their journey in a state of near starvation, and walked between 10 and 14 km's in the blazing sun (the temperature was reportedly over 40 degrees) before they collapsed and died, of dehydration and hunger. First the smaller two, who were found lying together. Then, some distance away, the older two. As if it could get any worse, the 6-year old was disabled, walked with a limp, and suffered from TB.

It is a story genuinely too ghastly to contemplate in a democracy with a Bill of Rights and a safety net of child grants intended to prevent children from starving to death.

The various reported accounts of the last days of Sebengu Mmupele (9), Mmapule (7, and the only girl), Olebongeng (6) and Oarabetswe (2) are as horrific as they seem incomprehensible.

But there is one aspect of the story that has not been reported. It ranks right up there with "It leaves me cold", one of the most notorious statements in South Africa's history, uttered by apartheid Justice Minister JT Kruger, on hearing of the death in prison of Steve Biko.

In a move as calculatedly callous, the ANC in the North West Provincial Legislature, rejected a DA motion of condolence for the Mmupele children. Such motions are traditionally tabled and supported by all parties at times of tragedy (or celebration).

When DA Provincial Leader, Chris Hattingh, moved and motivated that "that the North West Provincial Legislature register a motion of condolence as well as serious concern about the tragic death of four children who died of thirst and hunger," the ANC rejected it. Hattingh then requested that motion appear on the Parliamentary order paper for later consideration. After hearing of this, all the ANC's official pious hand-wringing about the tragedy has left me stone cold.

Predictably, after the reports appeared, individuals and NGOs were quick to respond to the plight of the community of Verdwaal, and Elizabeth Mmupele the 27-year-old pregnant mother of the younger two children who died looking for her. Their father has reportedly disappeared and did not support them. Elizabeth is also the older sister of the two older deceased children, who were the youngest children of Elizabeth's mother, Mrs Martha Mmupele, 44. Her husband, Moses, works at a nearby farm.

None of the children received grants, because neither of their mothers have ID documents. In fact, Elizabeth does not even have a birth certificate. This was confirmed by the DA's constituency MP, Joe McGluwa, who visited the families to establish the facts and is assisting them in getting the documentation they need.

According to Mrs Martha Mmupele, she has struggled to get an ID book, but her application has been rejected numerous times because the surname on her baptism certificate differs from the surname on her mother's ID.

The acting North West Provincial Manager of Home Affairs, Irene Mantlhasi, has rejected this account and suggested that Mmupele is not telling the truth. Mantlhasi says she has ordered an investigation to establish what happened. The DA will follow this investigation with interest and continue to ask questions in Parliament.

Next up with government comment was Mr Vuyisile Ngesi, the spokesman for the North West Department of Social Development, Women, Children and People with Disabilities who reportedly blamed the deaths of the children on ignorance regarding the availability of social services and lack of parental supervision. He said the department had special programmes and projects aimed at educating people about the importance of social grant applications and identity documents. "The challenge is that people do not use the services at their disposal," Ngesi said. He added that the family had received trauma and bereavement counselling.

The next government statement emanated from Ms Irene Khula who is the "master trainer and data capturer" for the Social Development Department's "War on Poverty" in the North West. She is reported to have expressed surprise that her department had been unaware of the extreme poverty in the area. She noted that Verdwaal was not on the list sent to the province from the national Department, and they had only learnt about the extent of poverty in the area after the deaths of the Mmupele children.

Not to be outdone, the spokesman for the national Department of Social Development, Cornelius Monama, announced that the death of the children was a reminder of the urgent need to fight poverty. "We are working together with other departments to intervene in matters affecting children. We are confident that the North West provincial government is dealing with this specific matter and that other families in similar situations are also being assisted," he told the Pretoria News.

Thus spoke the spokesman for the very department whose annual report revealed that it had overspent its administration budget by R8,8-million, largely due to overseas trips by officials. When the travelling officials had reached the extended limit of their own ample budget, they dipped into the budget for children's projects, which was also overspent, not on the welfare of children, but for the purpose of further travel. In fact, when it came to the projects the Department was supposed to undertake to improve the lives of children, it had only achieved two out of eight.

Yet in the week ahead, the Department's officials will be found travelling again, holding various events at desirable venues to mark the "16 days of activism for no violence against women and children". Once more, every Province has been asked to supply buses to transport people to these junkets. The Western Cape said no. We have more pressing needs to spend our money on than more pointless parties that only give officials the excuse they seek for the extensive travel they so enjoy.

This article by Helen Zille first appeared in SA Today, the weekly newsletter of the Democratic Alliance

The parallelism with the way things were under the apartheid government, and the way things are now under the ANC government

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 09:00:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

The Zuma-led ANC government is taking the country down a road chillingly reminiscent of the apartheid past.

The following is an extract from a comment to a guardian.co.uk article written by Justice Malala entitled, "A law that shames South Africa":

October 19 1977 - South Africa's Apartheid government bans several local newspapers for publishing news articles about the beating and murder of Steve Biko at the hands of the police... the ANC protested this violently.

Fast Forward...
November 22 2011 - South Africa's ANC government passes the Protection of Information Bill allowing the incarceration (for up to 25 years) and banning of any journalist or entity that makes public information about the corrupt nature or actions of members of government.

The parallelism with the way things were under the apartheid government, and the way things are now under the ANC government, is a grim pointer to where this country is headed.

The insidious state security bill must be opposed with every legal means available while there is still time. And time is running out. Already the ANC is turning its attention to the Constitutional Court with a view to restricting the court's powers to rule against government, and thereby abrogating our constitutional rights.

The Protection of Information Bill: possibly the beginning of an unstoppable slide down the slippery slope

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 16:11:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

With its ramming through parliament of the Protection of Information Bill, the ANC has succeeded in solidly uniting the opposition. The Pan Africanist Congress on the extreme left and the Freedom Front Plus on the extreme right and the parties in between, all voted against the ANC.

I can’t remember an occasion ever, when anything like that happened.

And the ANC has succeeded in unsettling some of its own prominent supporters. Nelson Mandela is one such, having expressed disapproval of the bill through the Nelson Mandela Centre of Memory. Nobel laureate Nadine Gordimer is another. And of course "Arch" Desmond Tutu was vociferous in his condemnation of the bill. I could go on and name many more prominent ANC figures, but the above are sufficient for you to get the picture.

And I'm sure the ANC has alienated many of its grass roots supporters now. A Sowetan article disapproving of the bill had, by my count, well over 400 commenters out of 427 expressing outright condemnation of the bill as well as of the ANC for pushing it through.

That’s a lot of unhappy, presumably, ANC supporters. The ruling party better hope and pray those commenters do not represent a microcosm of the whole country.

The way I see it, the ANC’s success in eliminating the Scorpions — who were closing in on top ANC figures allegedly involved in corruption — has emboldened them to try the same strategy with the media which regularly exposes party bigwigs involved in corruption, malpractice, misgovernance and other acts of wrongdoing.

But taking on the media is probably going to turn out to be the biggest mistake the ruling party has ever made.

The thing of it is, the information the ANC hopes to keep under wraps is going to get out in any event. The apartheid government couldn’t stop it. And that was before the internet and social networks. How the hell does the ANC think it can succeed when the Nats couldn’t in the pre-information era?

And when — as inevitably will happen — the ANC starts chucking journalists into prison, it will have to face the kind of world condemnation that was the apartheid government’s lot.

With its back to the wall, the ANC government would probably feel obliged to tighten its repressive screws. And world outrage would increase accordingly.

And so it would go.

It could be the beginning of an unstoppable slide down the slippery slope.

The Protection of Information Bill: shades of the apartheid era

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 11:37:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

So it's happened as expected. The ANC's majority vote passed the contentious Protection of Information Bill (POIB) yesterday. But bear in mind the ANC had issued a directive to all its MPs to rock up and vote the party line or face dire consequences (yet, despite the threat, 34 ANC MPs did not vote for the bill).

So the government went ahead, in the face of local outrage and international opprobrium, with a bill whose primary purpose — considering it allows practically any state or local government official to classify any document as secret — is to muzzle the media and stop it exposing rampant ANC corruption whether it occurs at the very top, or lower down the hierarchy ladder.

However, the first element of a coming international backlash has already stepped into the starting blocks in anticipation of things to come. Amnesty International has announced it would consider journalists and whistleblowers arrested under the secrecy bill as "prisoners of conscience."

That's a warning shot fired across the South African government's bows alright.

With the media's sustained uncovering of corruption within party ranks, the ANC must be desperate to turn off the heat. And what better way to do that than to nullify the source of the heat. That’s how it dealt with the Scorpions when the elite crime-busting unit began to close in on the corrupt within the ruling party’s ranks.

And that is how it is dealing with the pesky media. The ANC disbanded the Scorpions and replaced them with the Hawks. But it can’t disband the media altogether. So instead, allegedly, it plans to use the info bill to accomplish virtually the same thing.

But — significantly — it appears the bill is unpopular with all South African groups; not just the so-called privileged whites the ANC is so fond of pointing the finger at.

The Sowetan (a black newspaper, in case you didn’t know) ran an article yesterday entitled “Public opposition to Secrecy Bill increases”. There were 427 comments to the article and they overwhelmingly condemned the ANC’s secrecy bill. In fact, I found only two comments supportive of the bill (but, for the sake of argument, let’s assume there were others which I didn’t spot).

Could this be a microcosm indicative of a general mind-shift among black South Africans across the country? I don't know. But maybe, just maybe, people's patience with the ANC is at last wearing thin.

And maybe there are now the first stirrings of a trend in South Africa similar to what happened in Zimbabwe when Robert Mugabe’s government lost the support of the populace. As the saying goes, you can only take so much.

One thing is for sure. If, after the bill becomes law, the ANC starts arresting and locking up journalists it deems to have contravened it, there will be a virtual firestorm of condemnation here and abroad. And it won't stop there.

Which raises a hitherto preposterous question: how long before we see international sanctions applied against the South African government, shades of the apartheid era?

I mean, once a regime decides to go the route of trampling on people’s right to know what their government is getting up to, it’s only a short step away from violating their human rights across the board.

If allowed to, the ANC government could commit to travelling a highway with no off-ramps ... to despotism of the worst kind. It’s happened so many times before in countries around the world, where regimes start off doing all the right things until the power trip kicks in and the oppression of their people begins big-time.

The Robert Mugabe regime is a prime example.

Or am I jumping the gun here ... even before the starter has raised it to fire?

UPDATE: This BBC WORLD NEWS article is typical of the stories about the Protection of Information Bill saga the world’s leading media publications are running with.

The new AIDS denialism - Helen Zille

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Sun, 20 Nov 2011 15:28:00 +0000

By Helen Zille, leader of the Democratic Alliance
20 November 2011

Tackling the new AIDS denialism

In 2008, a 25-year old Finnish man called Aki Hakkarainen was sentenced to ten years in prison on five counts of aggravated assault. He was required to pay damages of R500,000 to each of his victims. His crime was having passed on the HI virus through unprotected sex, without disclosing his status.

It was not the first case of criminal HIV infection in Finland. The first such case dates back 15 years, to 1997, when Steven Thomas was convicted in Helsinki of 17 counts of attempted manslaughter for infecting women with HIV. He was sentenced to 14 years in prison.

Both cases followed the same trajectory: a woman complained to the police about having become HIV-positive through unprotected sex with a man who did not disclose his status. The police tracked down the suspect, established that he knew he was HIV-positive, and published his photograph in the media in order to locate anyone else who might also have had unprotected sex with him. Other women then came forward and gave the evidence that secured the convictions.

A similar case is currently unfolding in Canada, after Edmonton police arrested a 17-year-old girl on charges of aggravated assault after she had sex with two men without disclosing her status. The police issued a public safety warning, and released the girl's name, photograph and personal details. This led to a third complainant coming forward. The girl's case is currently before the courts.

These cases are by no means unique. In fact, almost half the countries that have signed the European Convention of Human Rights have prosecuted and convicted people for having unprotected sex, knowing they were HIV-positive, without disclosing their status. There are similar examples as far afield as New Zealand, Australia and the United States (where a person can also be prosecuted for donating infected blood).

These accounts sound shocking in the South African context, where we have a different response to the AIDS pandemic. We tend instinctively to feel that the rights of the accused in the above examples were grossly violated. What about their privacy? How could their photos have been published in the papers? What about the stigma? Wouldn't that discourage others from being tested? Wouldn't it merely drive the pandemic underground, making it more difficult to beat? How could society have so grossly failed a 17-year-old girl?

These are valid questions, but they are not the only ones.

We must also ask ourselves the harder questions that arise from the "List of countries by HIV/AIDS adult prevalence rate" published on-line by Wikipedia. Why does South Africa have the largest HIV-positive population in the world? Why have most other countries, including extremely poor ones, succeeded in containing or beating this disease?

In her brilliant book The Invisible Cure on the HIV pandemic in Southern Africa, Dr Helen Epstein provides the meticulously researched, scientific answer: The root cause of our AIDS crisis is the entrenched culture of multiple concurrent sexual partners, aggravated by inter-generational sex. She describes this as the "Aids Superhighway". And, she concludes, the only countries in Africa that have turned the AIDS pandemic around, are those that have focused on partner reduction. Of particular interest is Uganda's "zero grazing", the name given to the policy to promote sexual fidelity.

Says Epstein: "If the network of concurrent relationships serves as a superhighway for HIV, partner reduction would be like a sledgehammer, breaking up the highway into smaller networks and destroying the "on ramps" - the casual relationships that let HIV onto the superhighway in the first place. In theory, condoms could have created "road blocks" on the superhighway, if only people used them consistently. But most condom use in Africa is inconsistent, especially in the longer-term relationships in which so much HIV transmission takes place."

Epstein notes that the HIV rate in Zimbabwe and Kenya began to decline in the late 1990s. "Rates of condom use had been increasing throughout the decade, but it was not until rates of multiple partnerships began to decline that the HIV rate in these countries also fell." During the same period, "in such countries as Botswana, South Africa and Lesotho, where no partner reduction occurred and where condoms were emphasized as the main method of prevention, HIV rates rose. In all three countries, condoms were used more frequently than in Uganda, where the HIV rate was falling."

In South Africa we remain in deep denial about the core problem. We have focused on condom distribution and free treatment, because these interventions shift the responsibility away from the individual, onto the state. Anyone who dares raise the issue of personal responsibility - the "Be Faithful" component of the ABC prevention trilogy - has been dismissed as a moralising prude at best, or an unconstitutional populist, at worst.

I should have seen it coming when I raised various "personal responsibility" proposals during a recent Health Summit in the Western Cape.

As usual, Twitter provided an interesting feedback channel. Some tweets were so disgusting, they are unprintable.

But here is a small sample of the rest.

Said @Lo_Dee: "U r white. We are groomed for polygamy. Go say that in bloody Europe."

And @Levinborn added this gem: "Outrageous! Hahaha you think u can police individual sexual activity?"

And @LegoTrip added: "Keep your laws off my penis!"

I think it is fair to assume that none of these Twits would hesitate to demand free anti-retrovirals if they were diagnosed HIV-positive. That is, if they ever bothered to get tested. These are the kind of people who reject the "nanny state" when it reminds them of their responsibilities, but demand that the "nanny state" address all their "rights". For free.

Of course, the last thing on their minds are the rights of others. Or the cost of their behaviour to society. I doubt whether these narcissists ever give a thought to the thousands of people with unpreventable conditions, who forego treatment because the state cannot afford everything. And when this obvious point is raised, it evokes angry indignation!

It is this attitude that results in the international AIDS statistics in Wikipedia's comparative table. It is this attitude that puts so many women and men at risk. It is this attitude that costs South Africa billions of Rands each year. And it is this attitude that must change.

The question is: How?

What we have done up to now certainly isn't working. The extent to which we have brought AIDS under control is through free access to medication, not behaviour change.

When I ask myself why other rights-based countries have beaten or limited the AIDS pandemic, I come to the following conclusion: they are managing to remove the stigma against people living with HIV, while stigmatising the behaviour that spreads HIV. This distinction is important.

People living with HIV must be able to lead full, stigma-free lives, and get the treatment they need to do so. At the same time it is fair to require everyone to know their status, and to avoid situations that involve the direct exchange of bodily fluids with others. This applies to bleeding wounds, blood donation and sex.

While this precaution applies to everyone, people who are HIV-positive have a particular duty to disclose their status in situations where others could be at risk. No-one can be assumed to have had consensual sex in a situation of non-disclosure.

Does society have the right to prescribe this? Most rights-based democracies seem to think so.

We must begin by challenging the pre-modern notion that unprotected sex with multiple, inter-generational concurrent sexual partners is a cultural right. It is not. In a modern urban context, it wreaks social devastation. It drives the teenage pregnancy rate, entrenches poverty, spreads disease, destroys families, produces unwanted and neglected children. It is one of the reasons that good parenting is a rarity. It is a key reason why our health system is so overburdened. It must stop. It is not merely a moral issue. It is a developmental issue. And we shouldn't pussy-foot around the subject.

It is not surprising that the only Cabinet Minister who has raised this matter (very tentatively) so far is Trevor Manuel, Minister in the Presidency responsible for long-term planning. He understands that this is a core development issue; that if we do not change this behaviour we cannot meet our national development goals. He broached this subject when he told a Parliamentary Committee meeting this week: "We must focus attention on people taking responsibility for their actions, and I don't want to pontificate, but this is especially so in the area of their sexual conduct."

Well, frankly, it is time to pontificate a whole lot more.

Lest there is any misunderstanding, I have said it before and I will say it again: the Democratic Alliance will continue, where we govern, to provide the most advanced, free treatment to everyone who tests positive for HIV/AIDS (yes, even the Twits quoted above.)

But I also believe it is fair to require everyone to take a regular HIV test (free) and accept responsibility for preventing risk to others. If they do so, they are entitled to live a stigma-free life as valued contributors and role-models in our society. If they don't, they must be prepared to face criminal charges.

When we move out of denial and get this distinction right, we will beat HIV/AIDS in South Africa.

This article by Helen Zille first appeared in SA Today, the weekly newsletter of the Democratic Alliance

Is a South African blog called PigSpotter’s World helping to keep law-abiding motorists safe from the clutches of corrupt metro cops — or is the blog just aiding and abetting criminals?

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 14:32:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

The above two-part question relates to a blogger who calls himself Pigspotter, and who makes it his business to warn people of the whereabouts of metro-cop roadblocks.

And considering the very sight of a metro-cop roadblock is enough to get anyone’s pulse rate up and racing like the engine of a Formula 1 car going flat-out down the straight, you’d more than likely say a resounding “yes” to the first part of the two-part question, and shrug and say "what can you do?" to the second part.

However, one police officer has told the Kempton Express he is “extremely concerned”; that while he has no problem with Pigspotter warning people of “accidents and other traffic related issues”, he does feel that by Pigspotter “tweeting about roadblocks and speed traps he is defeating the ends of justice”.

But Pigspotter, while conceding that the officer is “partly correct”, defends his actions by referring to the bigger picture, saying:

"While I cannot control who follows me and who gets certain information, the reason for me tweeting about roadblocks is to try and stop the very criminals who are conducting the roadblocks. Yes, I said criminals who conduct the roadblocks."

And he mentioned "the bribery, victimisation and even rape, occurring at some of these roadblocks" that are supposed to catch criminals.

So there you have it.

But hey, read Pigspotter’s blog for yourself and you’ll understand even better why many people fear metro-cop roadblocks as much as they do.

Does Julius Malema’s five-year suspension from the Youth League and the ANC mean South Africa’s political landscape will change for the better?

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 14:45:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

Or did the unfolding events, which kept us riveted, have more to do with a selfish power struggle between two men than for the good of the country?

Probably an element of both was active in the dynamic which led to Malema’s suspension.

Coming on top of the uprisings of the Arab Spring — which saw the overthrow of the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt — the gory end of Gaddafi must have shocked Zuma and members of the ANC elite severely.

It must have brought home to them the dangers inherent in the increasingly violent daily demonstrations that are happening all over South Africa. And they would have taken into account that Malema is a potential catalyst whose inflammatory rhetoric could set off the whole bang shooting match in this country.

That was one side of the Malema coin they had to consider.

The other was that the youth league president’s intended Zanufication of South Africa, were it to happen, would destroy the country’s economy as surely as it did that of Zimbabwe, and which could also lead to a South African version of the Arab Spring uprising.

So Zuma and co had to man up and stop Malema. It seems to have been a decision long put off. Or maybe they were waiting for the right moment to act. Which of course came when Malema finally blundered way across the line by threatening regime change in Botswana.

And the rest is history.

In the minds of many, who have grave reservations about both leaders, the affable, ever-smiling Jacob Zuma is the lesser of two evils. But only to a degree. A Malema South Africa would be a disaster. No question. But Zuma doesn’t evoke much confidence in a democratic future either.

There is the fear that his administration, if it gets its way with the proposed Protection of Information Bill, would severely curtail freedom of the media on pain of imprisonment for offenders.

There is even the fear that it would severely curtail free speech between you and me and everybody else. The bill apparently provides for imprisonment just for knowing something you are not supposed to know. They could nail you just for being in possession of restricted information.

And the restricted information we're talking about here means any bit of information that any government official, from the highest to the lowest, decides should be restricted.

And without explanation.

Which means corruption, however rampant, could never be uncovered publicly ... or even discussed privately. Not with the slammer beckoning.

Nonetheless, with Julius Malema safely out of the way, it’s up to the political opposition to figure out the best way to try to deal with the Zuma situation.

But is Julius Malema safely out of the way?

Well, it does seem as though the odds now stacked up against him might be insurmountable.

So, again, does Julius Malema’s five-year suspension from the Youth League and the ANC mean South Africa’s political landscape will change for the better?

I think it gives the Democratic Alliance a window of opportunity. Some breathing space to consolidate and improve on its already impressive performance. To grow its support base. And to change South Africa’s political landscape for the better.

So in that sense the answer is yes.

The dodgy whistleblowers of Midvaal - Helen Zille

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 21:30:00 +0000

By Helen Zille, leader of the Democratic Alliance
11 November 2011

For the record

The date today is 11/11/'11 and, according to some, this literally means the end of the world as we know it. There are numerous websites and even a new movie devoted to this Doomsday prophecy.

Earlier this week, some on the lunatic fringe of South African politics were making similarly apocalyptic predictions about the DA.

Jaco Mulder, cousin of the more famous Corne and Pieter (all prominent members of the family enterprise called the Freedom Front Plus) said:

"The DA and ANC are two sides of the same coin. Time will show that the DA controlled Midvaal is most probably the most corrupt municipality in South Africa."

Mr Mulder was referring to the release of the Public Protector's report on various allegations relating to the Midvaal municipality due for release the next day. But, as it happened, the Public Protector found no evidence of corruption in Midvaal at all.

Of course this didn't stop the ANC from jumping on the Freedom Front's wagon. The ANC's press statement in response to the report referred to the "blatant corruption" of the municipality - even though the Public Protector found none.

It is actually the Freedom Plus and the ANC that are two sides of the same coin. Let me explain.

Everybody knows that most local municipalities governed by the ANC are riddled with real cronyism and corruption. Not even the Secretary General of the ANC, Gwede Mantashe, denies rife corruption within the ANC. Earlier this year he said that "Corruption starts at the point where, because you are elected to an influential position in the ANC, you influence decisions for the benefit of individuals instead of society."

What is not so widely known is the cronyism and corruption that the Freedom Front perpetrates in the places where it retains a modicum of support. And nowhere illustrates the FF+'s crony tendencies better than Midvaal itself.

There is only one FF+ councillor in Midvaal, Cornelius Gregorius Pypers. He is the person who laid the original complaint with the Public Protector.

Mr Pypers has depicted himself as a heroic whistle blower but, in reality, someone needs to blow the whistle on him. It has come to my attention that:

External auditors contracted by the council found that Pypers was using his gardener to front as a BEE company in the hope of winning municipal tenders (corruption in anyone's language).
The council also received an auditor's opinion that Pypers was colluding with other vendors to fix quote prices so that they would have a better chance of winning tenders.
Shadow Construction - one of the companies that Pypers appeared to collude with - was fired by the council for botching an R8 million sewerage repair contract.
Pypers acted as a site manager on the sewerage contract for this company and is therefore involved in the R8 million lawsuit.

Pypers' fellow complainant is a man by the name of Kobus Hoffman. Mr Hoffman is a former DA councillor who likes to say that he was fired for "exposing" maladministration in Midvaal.

The reality is somewhat different.

Kobus Hoffman lost his seat on the Council for a simple reason. It was because he failed to pay his municipal rates bill timeously on 10 properties for 18 months. He was fired by the DA because, at that stage, his rates bill was already 90 days in arrears.

When Mr Hoffman lost his seat, he stood in the by-election it triggered as a FF+ candidate. He lost. In the 2011 election, he stood again - this time as an ANC candidate. He lost again.

Mr Hoffman's short journey from the FF+ to the ANC is not hard to fathom - after all, these parties are two sides of the same coin. Cornelius Pypers and Kobus Hoffman both have an axe to grind. And both have developed a taste for abusing public money - even as they accuse others of doing so. If anybody in Midvaal is corrupt, it is the two of them.

The DA is pleased that the Public Protector found no evidence of corruption on our part. But we take the findings of maladministration very seriously indeed - even if they did happen some time ago, and most of them had been corrected long before the Public Protector's investigation started. The allegations investigated by the Public Protector are not new to us. In fact, there have been no fewer than five investigations into the various allegations over the years - some of them initiated by the DA.

These include:

A forensic investigation into the ‘donated properties' issue. The audit found that all of the properties which were donated to the council were correctly and legally transferred onto the council's name.
Dorothy Mahlangu, the then MEC of Local Government, looked into the ‘palm tree' issue, and did not take it any further. She found no cause for further action.
The issue of the unpaid debts from ‘prepaid electricity' - here again the council did a forensic audit. The audit firm reported that the council did have insufficient controls in allowing such a large debt to run up, but agreed that it was not worth pursuing since the company that ran up the debt was bankrupt.
The SAPS were asked to investigate charges of corruption in 2008, but declined. The case is now before the Special Investigating Unit (SIU).
In 2009, the DA's former Provincial Leader, John Moodey, sent a team to Midvaal, headed up by a lawyer on the DA's Federal Legal Commission. The team found, like the Public Protector, that the documentary evidence proved beyond reasonable doubt that no corruption had taken place in the municipality. The Commission did recommend that steps be taken to ensure more competitiveness in the awarding of tenders for legal services. This was duly done in 2009.

It is valid to ask why, after all these interventions over so many years, the Public Protector's findings are deemed to be something new. It is worth asking why it was deemed necessary to re-investigate a matter and reach the same findings.

I am confident that the Midvaal municipality has done, and is doing, everything it can to ensure that the mistakes that were made do not happen again. We believe it is important to acknowledge our shortcomings and then work on fixing them. That is how good governments become great governments: they learn from their mistakes and continually improve their performance.

When one looks at the performance of Midvaal compared to any ANC municipality, it is patently clear that we are doing something right. Eight clean audit reports in a row, the best quality of life in Gauteng, the most people in employment, and a 100% revenue collection rate are all indicators of a municipality that works.

Midvaal will continue striving towards the highest standards of good governance, despite the efforts of our opponents to derail us. The only thing that can stop us from achieving our goals is if the world ends tonight.

This article by Helen Zille first appeared in SA Today, the weekly newsletter of the Democratic Alliance

Malema no match for wily Zuma

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 15:56:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

Julius Malema — today suspended for five years from the Youth League and the ANC — is proving to be no match for President Zuma, who so far has outfoxed him every step of the way in the kingmaker stakes.

I’m even beginning to doubt the support was for real that Malema reportedly was getting from the likes of Minister of Human Settlements Tokyo Sexuale, Minister of Sport Fikile Mbalula and Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe.

I’m thinking maybe, just maybe, they suckered Malema into believing they had his back.

It’s the ancient art of blindsiding.

As when President Zuma himself just the other day talked peace. He reportedly said Julius Malema can stay in the African National Congress, as long as he allows the party to mould him into a good leader, and that the ANC did not intend to remove Malema from public space.

Malema was pleased with that statement and commended the president for making it.

But he should have paid more attention because, significantly, President Zuma had also said, “You cannot allow him to do the wrong things. In other words, the job of the ANC is to help Malema, to mould him into a dynamic, good leader. That's what we need to do. It is only if you can’t do it, that the question becomes what do we do with him.”

Nonetheless, in the run-up to today’s ANC disciplinary ruling Malema might have thought things were swinging his way. Particularly after Deputy President Motlanthe weighed in with a snippet of his own, telling parliament's Press Gallery Association that “the approach of the ANC is that it abandons only the most incorrigible" and that “it has the confidence that it can correct its members” because its “philosophy is that people always can be corrected by undermining their weak points and supporting their strong points".

But, like Zuma, Motlanthe added a clause, a sting in the tail, if you like: "Once it washes its hands of you, it expels you but it only comes to that when... it puts a rock in this pot and cooks it and you in this pot, the rock becomes ripe and ready to eat before you do. Then it expels you."

In context, President Zuma and Deputy President Motlanthe were making exactly the same point. And it wasn’t about letting Malema off the hook. Rather they were saying, what do you do with a Malema who just won’t listen?

In effect, they were telling the South African public that there was no option but to suspend the youth league president.

And remove him from public space.

I wonder if Malema paused for a moment to consider the possibility that the president and the deputy president, far from speaking on his behalf, were actually laying the groundwork for casting him into the political wilderness.

Of course Malema will appeal the ruling and sentence. But there is practically no chance of it succeeding. The case against him is just too solid.

And what the five year suspension means, is that he is effectively out of the youth league forever. By the time the suspension runs its course, Malema will be 36. That’s one year too old to be a member of the youth league.

It probably also means the end of his political aspirations. Five years from now he’ll be a yesterday man.

And let’s not forget there’s an ongoing probe by the Hawks into Malema’s financial affairs.

The special investigative unit “has allegedly uncovered prima facie evidence of wrongdoing relating to the awarding of tenders to companies with close ties to the ANC Youth League leader in his home province of Limpopo”.

Apparently it is no longer a matter of if there is a case against Malema, but rather when he will be “hauled before a court” to face charges of corruption, fraud and money laundering.

Five years from now Malema might be a yesterday man with still some time to do.

UPDATE (13 November): Here's a Zapiro cartoon to bring a smile to your face.

Response to Public Protector's Report

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 15:13:00 +0000

8 November 2011
Timothy Nast
Mayor of Midvaal

The Democratic Alliance (DA) welcomes the finalisation of the Public Protector’s report into various allegations leveled against the Midvaal municipality.

We note that the Public Protector could find no evidence of fraud or corruption. We note further that the municipality was exonerated in three key areas.

The Public Protector found:

There were no irregularities in the awarding of the paving tender for Loch Street in Meyerton;
There was no evidence of maladministration in respect of debt collection practices; and
There was no evidence to support the allegation that the municipality paid performance bonuses irregularly.

However, the Public Protector did highlight instances of maladministration. In many of these instances, the municipality began taking remedial action as far back as 2006. In some cases, further remedial action is required. The municipality is fully committed to rectifying any mistakes that were made.

What follows is a summary of each finding, the remedial action already underway and the action that we intend to initiate at the Public Protector’s request.

The appointment of Odendaal and Summerton Inc. to render legal services for the council

The Public Protector finds correctly that proper procurement processes were not in place when the council was formed after the first democratic local government elections in 2000. This was before the promulgation of the Municipal Finance Management Act in 2004.

The Public Protector acknowledges that by 2006 a “formally competitive” bidding process was initiated. Three firms competed for this tender. Out of the three, two did not tender for the full scope of the work and were therefore disqualified. The tender was duly awarded to Odendaal and Summerton Inc.

In 2009, the municipality appointed a panel of attorneys to spread the council’s legal services among a number of firms. The Public Protector acknowledges that the municipality has already taken these corrective measures.

The Public Protector has further requested that the accounting officer submit a report to the Council within 60 days to, inter alia, investigate the conduct of the former accounting officer, chief financial officer and other officials involved. We will begin work on this report and make the report public in accordance with the Municipal Systems Act.

The Public Protector raised concerns about a potential conflict of interest in respect of the service provider and has requested that we take appropriate steps to review this. We will do so.

Whether Mr Odendaal benefited improperly from the sale of property to the council

The Public Protector investigated a complaint that Mr Andre Odendaal allegedly benefited from the sale of property donated to the Council in 2003.

The municipality will report on any deficiencies in internal controls related to this matter, as requested by the Public Protector. It will also cooperate with the relevant law society and investigating body in this regard.

However, it is unfortunate that there are some factual inaccuracies in the Public Protector’s findings on this matter – despite the comprehensive submission sent to her office during the course of the investigation.

The facts are as follows:

The Executors of the late CCC Hennop wrote to the Council to offer the stand as a donation in lieu of outstanding rates. However, this offer did not meet the requirements of the donation policy of Council.

At a later stage, the property was purchased by Mr Vaughn Summerton in the open market. The municipality had no involvement in this.

The fact is that the Municipality did have procedures and controls in place to monitor transferred and donated properties. The internal auditors, CMS Incorporated, investigated this matter and confirmed that a separate register was kept and maintained for donated property.

Furthermore, the Auditor-General has audited the records of assets and liabilities of the Council for all the financial years and gave positive reports on these.

I have written to the Public Protector today to clarify the facts of this matter and to request that she adjusts her report accordingly.

The removal of palm trees to the former mayor’s residence

The Public Protector investigated whether municipal equipment and resources were used to remove and transport palm trees to the house of the former mayor.

It was found that, although the conduct of municipal officials was improper, the matter had been dealt with correctly in terms of the Code of Conduct for Councillors and that the investigation had correctly been reported to the then MEC for Local Government.

Furthermore, the municipality was reimbursed for the expenditure.

This matter has therefore been dealt with comprehensively in terms of the law.

The failure to collect debt owed to the municipality by a prepaid electricity service provider

The Public Protector investigated whether the municipality had failed to collect debt from a vendor contracted to sell pre-paid electricity on behalf of the municipality. It was found that the failure to collect this debt constituted maladministration.

This finding regrettably ignores the remedial steps taken by the municipality to recover the outstanding amount. The municipality obtained a legal opinion to the effect that it would be fruitless to pursue the debt as the vendor was insolvent and all its members sequestrated. In other words, the cost to the public would have been greater than the amount that could be recovered. On this basis, the municipality’s audit committee agreed that the debt should be written off. Criminal charges were then laid against the vendor.

The Public Protector has requested that the municipality investigate allegations of misconduct against the officials involved. This will be duly complied with. We are confident it will reveal that the municipality acted in good faith based on legal advice.

Conclusion

No government is perfect. Good governments acknowledge this and strive towards the highest standards of financial management and service delivery.

The Midvaal municipality has set the standard in Gauteng for good governance over the last ten years. This year, Midvaal received its 8th unqualified audit from the Auditor-General and increased rates collection to 100%.

In 2010, Midvaal was ranked number one in Gauteng in the annual ‘Quality of Life Survey.’ It was also the only municipality in Gauteng where more than half (68%) of all residents reported they were either satisfied or very satisfied with their local government.

We will continue setting the bar high in Midvaal. We will do this by taking the findings of the Public Protector seriously and implementing her recommendations. Doing so will help us to rectify any shortcomings and continue improving our systems to the benefit of every resident of Midvaal.

We trust that the same standards will be monitored in municipalities throughout South Africa.

Statement issued by Timothy Nast, DA Mayor of Midvaal, November 8 2011

Public protector finds DA council tender irregularities

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 15:03:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

Public Protector Thuli Madonsella’s has found evidence of maladministration and irregularities by the DA-controlled Midvaal municipality, but could not pronounce on the fraud and corruption allegations a special police unit is investigating.

Madonsella’s findings relate to a contract for legal services awarded to a firm for 29 years without following proper procedures. DA Midvaal constituency chairman Andrew Odendaal is a partner in the firm.

And there’s more.

Odendaal’s company bought land the municipality acquired in settlement of an outstanding account. His company paid R10 000 for the land, which was valued at R118 000, and sold it for R180 000.

Talk about a conflict of interest.

And of course the DA’s political opponents are shouting about it from the rooftops:

The ANC said: “The report has confirmed the long-standing view of Midvaal residents that the Midvaal municipality has endemic and institutionalised maladministration to serve the DA’s nefarious agenda.”

The leader of the Freedom Front Plus in Gauteng, Jaco Mulder, said: “The DA and ANC are two sides of the same coin and time will show that the DA-controlled Midvaal is most probably the most corrupt municipality in South Africa.”

The DA must take decisive action against wrongdoers in this affair.

No easy medicine for policy nausea

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 07:35:00 +0000

By Helen Zille, leader of the Democratic Alliance
6 November 2011

Co-incidentally, this weekend, I attended two unrelated but uplifting events with deaf children and their parents.

The first was the 25th anniversary of the first Cochlear Implant at Tygerburg Hospital by Professor Derrick Wagenaar and his team, whose skill and dedication first gave the gift of sound to a young woman on 4 November 1986. Since then 424 people have benefited from this extraordinary technology.

The second event was a talent contest for deaf children (and for the hearing children of deaf parents), organised by DEAFSA to celebrate national children’s day.

Attending these events teaches me more about public policy than reading a pile of government reports.

At the first event, the audience was enthralled by young children, born profoundly deaf, reciting poetry and talking more fluently than many of their peers. Before cochlear technology, these children would never have mastered spoken language. It borders on the miraculous when one considers that hearing is the only one of the five senses that human technology can now create and restore!

The absence of any one of these senses (sight, taste, touch, smell and hearing) has a profoundly debilitating effect on the life of any individual. The particular devastation of deafness is that it cuts a person off from other people. Without appropriate early intervention, deafness deprives a child entirely of language, either signed or spoken. If the language acquisition stage in early childhood is missed, it is almost impossible to regain.

Language is an indispensable component of being human. Without it we cannot describe things, ideas or feelings. We cannot connect with others. We are isolated, frustrated, alone -- to a degree that anyone born with the gift of hearing cannot imagine. What makes things so much worse for many deaf children is that they are often a source of embarrassment to uninformed parents. These (often highly intelligent) children are sometimes left alone locked in shacks -- desperate, deeply unhappy and more vulnerable to abuse than any others, because they have no voice.

That is why it came as a hammer-blow to the head when Mrs A Muller, the Audiologist and co-ordinator of the Cochlear Implant Unit, told me that 40% of children whose lives could be transformed by cochlear technology, do not receive implants due to lack of funds.

The next morning, as I sat watching the DEAFSA talent show, where some of the children danced to the music vibrations they felt through the floorboards, I asked myself how many of them were part of the 40% who could have benefited from the right to spoken language had we allocated the necessary funds?

Asking oneself this kind of question engenders stomach-churning policy nausea.

There are protests outside my office every week on almost every conceivable issue. Why is no-one out there protesting for the rights of these children? Is it because people with disabilities are not regarded as fully human? Is it because we think we can make a few allowances on the margins of society to make their lives more bearable, without doing what is needed to enable them fully to live lives they value?

This policy failure is aggravated by the fact that the Western Cape spends well over 50% of its R13,3-billion health budget every year on PREVENTABLE conditions (and our health budget is the largest component of the provincial government). Free treatment in government hospitals and clinics for these conditions is now considered a basic “right”. Once the PREVENTABLE diseases have been allocated the funding they require, we dish out the inadequate scraps to treat the debilitating unpreventable conditions.

Apart from being ethically indefensible, this policy has further widened the gap between “rights” and their essential corollary -- responsibility. For almost a decade, many AIDS activists defended the right to privacy in the sexual domain -- while demanding the right to full and free HIV treatment. Thus it became politically “incorrect” to condemn the widespread practice of multiple concurrent sexual partners. Most people now know that unprotected, inter-generational sex with multiple partners is the AIDS superhighway that carries this incurable disease to every nook and cranny of Southern Africa and perpetuates it from generation to generation. Yet our response has largely had the effect of fuelling further denial and dependency by absolving rational (usually male) adults from the responsibility of changing their behaviour. Taxpayers must foot the bill without asking any politically-incorrect questions. Enough already! Especially when one confronts the under-funding of so many treatable health conditions.

(To avoid any misunderstanding, the Western Cape will continue to provide the most comprehensive HIV-AIDS treatment in the country -- at an annual cost of almost R2-billion including R1,2-billion from the Global AIDS Fund. But we will ALSO ask the necessary questions and make appropriate demands for behaviour change.)

Apart from HIV, there are the “lifestyle” diseases occasioned largely by substance abuse (alcohol, smoking, drugs, over-eating) that cost the country tens of billions each year. It is worth pondering on our budgetary priorities when kidney patients are sent home to die because the state hospitals cannot afford their treatment (R100,000 per week); or when schools for the Blind cannot afford Braille printers (up to R150,000 each); or when a poor father risks his life by rowing a small boat from Port Elizabeth to Cape Town to raise the funds he needs for the operation that will enable his blind daughter to distinguish between light and dark. Every time a government Minister (or any other man for that matter) indulges his predatory sexual urges, may he think of this father on the high seas, trying to save his daughter from a life of perpetual darkness.

But for anyone prone to policy nausea it would be best to avoid reading the annual report of the so-called “Ministry for Women, Children and People with Disabilities”.

The money the ministry spent on international travel for super-sized delegations to (ostensibly) attend conferences would probably have paid for cochlear implants for every child who could benefit from this life changing operation.

Just one example: Four months after being appointed to her position, Minister Lulu Xingwana started racking up her frequent flyer miles by leading a delegation of 49 officials to a UN Conference in New York. The trip cost R6,8-million. (The SA Mission at the UN actually complained about the excessive size of the delegation!) Many of the delegates stayed at the Ritz hotel where rooms start at R5,500 per night. What’s more, many of them did not attend the conference sessions. One can only presume they did not want to interrupt their shopping. The Minister defended this situation afterwards by saying that her department only paid for eight of the delegates. And, she added (after her most recent jaunt to Chicago with a group of businesswomen), it was “unreasonable” to expect her to stay in a “pondok” or fly “lala” class.

It is not surprising, given this attitude, that the Department overspent its administration budget by R8,8-million largely due to overseas trips by officials. And, presumably because they were so busy travelling abroad, the department FAILED TO SPEND R5,6-million of its R7,1-million budget earmarked for the “Rights of People with Disabilities”. Tell that to the father who rowed from Port Elizabeth to Cape Town. Or the parents of children with profound intellectual disabilities who had to take the provincial and national government to court to demand adequate funding for the treatment of their children. I thank them for doing so. They have taught me a great deal about budgetary priorities.

But how does one bring these insights home to the national Ministry of Women, Children and People with Disabilities? Their attitude is best illustrated by a letter they sent me in May 2010, when the hapless Noluthando Mayende-Sibiya was still the Minister.

The letter requested the Provincial government to identify children to participate in a Children’s Day celebration in Parliament. When I raised my concern that the event was scheduled to take place during school time, the Ministry adapted their plan. Not by changing the time, as one would have expected, but by changing the children it was targeting. The Ministry duly wrote back asking “provinces to mobilise 10 children who are out of school, meaning children living on the streets.”

In other words, to celebrate children’s day, the Ministry wanted all nine Provinces to collect street children and transport them to Parliament to participate in an event, after which they would (in the absence of any indication to the contrary) be returned to the points where they were picked up, to continue living on the streets. Instead of the “Children’s day” budget being allocated to housing, feeding, schooling and clothing these children, it was being spent on an event where they would be required to wave little flags and form a guard of honour for VIPs. This symbolises this Ministry perfectly. There is a complete inversion of priorities. The vulnerable people they are supposed to serve end up having to serve them.

And, when you next suffer a bout of policy nausea, let us remember that, in a democracy, people get the government the majority voted for.

This article by Helen Zille first appeared in SA Today, the weekly newsletter of the Democratic Alliance

The ANC Youth League is chasing away foreign investors

noreply@blogger.com (Marvin Caldwell-Barr) — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 12:29:00 +0000

By Marvin Caldwell-Barr

Last year direct foreign investment to South Africa declined by 70%, with no sign this year that the situation is likely to turn around for the better.

There’s little doubt that the main reason investors have abandoned this country relates, firstly, to the ANC Youth League’s bellicose demands that the mines be nationalised; and, secondly, to the ANC’s ambiguous denials that any such thing is government policy.

Fair enough, Mineral Resources Minister Susan Shabangu on Wednesday reiterated what she has said many times before. That the mines will not be nationalised. She has never wavered in that assertion.

But other ruling party bigwigs are not so explicit.

While denying there is an agenda to nationalise the mines or any other assets, their choice of words raises a niggling doubt as to the government’s real intentions. You see, in the narrative they always insert a clause: for now, or, at this time, or, at present.

And they talk of looking into the question of nationalisation.

Which sends a clear signal to concerned parties that although there may be no policy to nationalise the mines right now, there could be such a policy in the future.

Is that supposed to put the minds of foreign investors at rest?

Not likely.

With the ANC Youth League, on the other hand, investors know exactly what the sums add up to. Which is, nationalisation of the mines. And not only the mines. The League also wants the banks nationalised, and, for good measure, white-owned land expropriated without compensation.

Recently in Thembelihle, Youth League president Julius Malema, after calling Indians coolies, went on to say that blacks must take possession of white-owned land without paying compensation and that "if they don't want to give the land over to us, we must take it without their permission".

But first the mines.

In response to media questions regarding nationalisation and the threat to foreign investment, Youth League secretary general Sindiso Magaqa said:

"This is a figment of their imagination that investment will be hurt by nationalisation. We want those mines back. The imperialists didn't pay for them. We are sick and tired of this attitude from the same people who suck the minerals from this country. If needs be, we will take it by force. They must not push us too far.”

Talk about incitement to sedition.

So should the ANC Youth League have its way, what would nationalisation and land confiscation do to South Africa? The short answer is that it would wreck the economy just as it did that of Zimbabwe.

Money would pour out of the country and the rand would hit the floor and inflation would hit the ceiling and unemployment would be so widespread people would look back on today's recession-driven joblessness as the good times.

And of course the government would still have to run the mines and the banks (the seized land would simply lie fallow). A tall order considering it can’t successfully run its existing enterprises.

When the Zambian government tried to run its nationalised mines it lost $1m every day. Now that Zambia’s mines are back in private hands, the Zambian government receives more than $1m every day in taxes and royalties.

And that just about sums it up. The surest way to know the future is to look at the past.