المكتبة الالكترونية

كتاب الحاسة السادسة للمؤلف ويلسون

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 01:14:00 +0000

كتاب الحاسة السادسة للمؤلف ويلسون

مؤلف هذا الكتاب

المؤلف الكبير / كولن ولسون

لم يكن السبب الذى دفع كولين ولسن الى الانسلاخ عن هذا العالم و الانصراف فى غباهب الفكر الرغبة المجردة الى الكتابة او النقد بل هو ذلك الحس الفكرى الاصيل و العقل الثاقب الذى احس بة هذا الكاتب وهو فى اولى سنوات حياتة

ولقد دخل كولن ولسن عالم النقد و الفكر ولما كانت اوربا تعج بمعارك الافكار و الاراء

لكنة اطل من نافذة النقد متأثرا بكبار الكتاب ذلك الوقت كجويس و ههمنغواى

و الان نترككم مع الكتاب الرائع

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كتاب التنويم المغناطيسي بين الحقيقة والخرافة....

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 01:01:00 +0000

كتاب التنويم المغناطيسي بين الحقيقة والخرافة

مؤلف هذا الكتاب

أ/ مجدى محمد الشهاوى

يعبر التنويم المغناطيسى بصورة العديدة من اغرب العوالم و اكثرها غموضا فى عالمنا المعاصر

ولم تكشف بعد جميع اسرار هذا الفن وفى هذا الكتاب بعون الله نتناول عجائب التنويم المغناطيسى وغرائبة

كمحاولة لكشف اسرارة وخفاياة

كما نجيب على اسئلة عديدة تدور فى اذهان كل الناس

والان هذا هو الكتاب المعجزة

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كتاب البحث عن جذور الشر

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 00:49:00 +0000

كتاب البحث عن جذور الشر

هذة محاولة فلسفية اخلاقية تبحث عن اصل الشر و ترد مظاهرة المختلفة مثل " الطوفان و العنف و تدمير البيئة و استهلاك الحياة....الى اخرة من جزور سيكولوجية واحدة وهو ثابت اثاثى من ثوابت تفكير فريدة

واترككم الان مع الكتاب لتحميلة و الاستمتاع بة

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كتاب الأنماط الشخصية.pdf

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 23:35:00 +0000

كتاب الأنماط الشخصية.pdf

مكتبة الكتب

كتاب الانماط الشخصية

هى دراسة مستفيضة للعالم السويسرى "كارل جانج""carl gung" عام 1921

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كتاب الأنماط الشخصية.pdf

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 23:35:00 +0000

كتاب الأنماط الشخصية.pdf

مكتبة الكتب

كتاب الانماط الشخصية

هى دراسة مستفيضة للعالم السويسرى "كارل جانج""carl gung" عام 1921

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كتاب العادات السبع للناس الأكثر فعالية

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 01:01:00 +0000

كتاب العادات السبع للناس الأكثر فعالية

تأليف

ستيفن ر.كوفي

هذا الكتاب من أكثر الكتب مبيعاً في أميركا وذلك لما يعرضه المؤلف

من معالجات شاملة للمبدأ التى تساعد في حل المشاكل الشخصية والمهنية

ومدى احتياجنا إليه في أمورنا التنظيمية والشخصية، تجعل هذا الكتاب الرائع جدير بأن يغير مجرى حياتك.

الكتاب للتحميل

من هنا

كتاب مائة طريقة لتحفيز نفسك

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 00:41:00 +0000

كتاب مائة طريق لتحفيز نفسك من الكتب النادرة فى الادب

تأليف

ستيف شاندلر

ستجد جميع الأفكار الفعّالة موجودة في هذا الكتاب

لانة يزخر بالكثير من النصائح

إذا أردت أن تتطور كشخص

فعليك أن تقوم بتحميل هذا الكتاب إلى قائمة الكتب لديك و عليك قراءتها

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الكتاب الذى هز الارض مئة عام من العزلة

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 00:24:00 +0000

كتاب مئة عام من العزلة

تأليف
غابرييل غارسيا ماركيز

تمثل هذه الرواية التي حازت على جائزة نوبل في الأدب عام 1982 إحدى الشوامخ في الفن الروائي الغربي قديمه وحديثه وقد برز مؤلفها كواحد من أهم أعلام الأدب اللاتيني المعاصر. في هذه الرواية يمتد الزمان ليتقلص ضمن أوراقها وسطورها حيث يحكي غارسيا ماركيز حكاية لأسرة أوريليانو على مدار عشرة عقود من الزمان، ململماً هذا الزمان باقتدار وبراعة بالغين بما فيه من غرائب الأحداث وخوارق الوقائع ودخائل المشاعر ودقائق التحليلات وعظائم المفاجآت

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Build a Healthy Portfolio Through Stock Picking Strategies

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:28:00 +0000

By Sam Richard Nicholson

Financial News provides information about the state of economy and the happenings in the agriculture, industry and services sector across the world. Most of the companies listed in the stock markets are affected by these developments. The stock prices are determined by the factors such as demand in the economy and the money supply. Financial News can be of great help in identifying the bullish sectors in the global economy, which in turn can be a guide to invest in the right scrip and earn handsome returns.
Live Stock Market gives the investor a real time picture of the stock quotes that are taking place in the major international bourses. It explains the technical range in the stock movement and allows the investor a bird's eye view of the historical data as well as the before and after hours of day trading. Primarily focusing on Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S& P 500; it also gives daily trading data of Forex, Gold and Oil exchanges across the world. Live Stock Market runs a market commentary to make the investor the sense of the things that are going on in them.

Stock Analyst Ratings is means of knowing expected performance of the scrip based on market data. It gives guidance about the actual worth of the stock in comparison to the market value. The analysis suggests to either buy or sell depending on the actual value and the market value differences. However, a prudent investor should study the factors which are used to determine the actual value of the stock before agreeing with the Stock Analyst Ratings.
Stock Picking Strategies have to be scientific so that it can be useful to the investor. Most of the sites carry informative assessment of the ways to choose winning scrip. However, the criterion of what constitutes a blue chip differs from person to person. Generally, the criterion consist of broker upgrade and downgrades, low price to book ratio, low price to sales ratio and low PEG ratio. Stock Picking Strategies are suspected because they become personalized and biased as they lack technical analysis based on facts.
Mergers And Acquisitions are the strategic devices used by the globally competitive industry to leverage their strength and reduce their weakness in the uncertain market conditions. The companies take over an entity in an attempt to carry out the forward and backward integration. At other times they join hands with the larger entities to create mammoth enterprises to kill the market competition. In both the cases, the shareholders are kept informed and markets are notified so that the outcome of the move or the effect on the markets is shielded from the extreme influences. Mergers And Acquisitions are conducted publicly as well with the rival companies, making public offers to the respective shareholders.

Sam Richard Nicholson is a freelance writer and Finance expert. In this Article he speaks about healthy portfolio management for investors who are very keen in stock market investments. How much lucrative are the Stock Analyst Ratings, one should always be sure about decision investments in most stable stock by reading getting in touch with Financial News Updates and covering stories telling about mergers and acquisitions of any organization.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Sam_Richard_Nicholson

Understanding Risk And Reward Will Help You Reach Financial Freedom

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:26:00 +0000

By Chris Borg

So what exactly is risk and reward? In life there are many risks one must take. Crossing the street is a risk. Fortunately, most of the time, one can control that risk. You look both ways before crossing the street. The same holds true for investing. Investing has inherent risks but here again, one can (to a limited extent) control the risk. Your financial freedom is closely tied to how much risk you take on as it will determine how much reward you will garner from your investments. It all boils down to what some people call "the sleep factor". How well do you like to sleep at night?

Do you like not worrying about your investments which in turn will allow you to sleep better? Or are you the aggressive type that wants to shoot for the stars with your investments which could cause you to miss a night or two of sleep? You need to choose your tolerance for risk and reward. In the financial world this is known as a person's risk tolerance. How well do you tolerate risk. When you open up a retirement account or a brokerage account to start investing, you will be filling out an application that contains many questions some of which will be aimed at determining your risk tolerance and some will be aimed at determining your time horizon. In other words, what are you comfortable investing in and when do you need to have the money back in order to meet some of life's necessities and obligations like buying a house, sending kids to college or retiring.
As a newbie investor, you are probably familiar with the interest you earn on your savings account, which at the time of this writing is less than 1% annually. This is an example of low risk-reward. Furthermore the bank in which you have the savings account probably offers you FDIC Insurance (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ) on the account. This insurance which used to cover up to $100,000.00 per depositor was recently increased to $250,000.00 per account and will stay at that level until Jan 1, 2014 at which time it is scheduled to reset back to $100,000.00 per account with the exception of some retirement accounts that will remain at the $250K limit. Having that insurance is one of the ways you can control risk. If the bank fails, the FDIC will reimburse you.
Now if you think 1% interest is low, just imagine what you might think when you find out that the interest is subject to taxes so after you pay taxes to Uncle Sam on the 1% you earned, you will wind up with approximately.66% interest! If you want to earn more interest, you might consider moving some of your money into a bank CD (Certificate of Deposit). The bank will give you a little bit more interest in exchange for you not touching the money for a set period of time. Right now 1 year CD's are just a tick over 1% and 5 year CD's are hovering around 2%. If you need your money back before 1 year or 5 years, you will forfeit some of the interest as a penalty. Once again, the interest is subject to taxes. By now you should start to see that taking on low risk will mean little reward for your efforts with a subsequent longer time period before you reach financial freedom.
So now you start to feel that these are pretty lousy interest rates and you begin to look around for a better way to invest your money. What you will find out is that most of the products that you can invest in do not come with FDIC insurance. This means that if you want to invest in them to get a better interest rate of return, you will have to understand that you could possibly lose money. How much money can you lose? That depends on what you are investing in but basically it is a pretty linear relationship meaning, the more reward (interest) you seek, the more risk you have to take...a.k.a. high risk-reward. If you learn to invest successfully your high rewards will bring you financial freedom that much sooner! Here is a very simple list to better explain this relationship. Interest rate shown is approximate for that class of securities as the rates are constantly changing and it is shown on an annualized basis.
Securities Class Annualized Percentage Return
Bonds:
Treasury 5 year: 2.65%, 10 year: 3.75%, 30 year: 4.5%
Municipal 3.5% to 5%
Corporates 6% to 8%
Mutual Funds 9%
Stocks 10% to 12%
Annuities:
Fixed 4%
Variable 7%
Commodities/Forex/Options: very high interest if done right...20% and more is very common.
To invest in any of the above securities and many more unmentioned ones, you will need to open a brokerage account. While there is no FDIC Insurance, you will usually get S.I.P.C. Insurance (Securities Investor Protection Corporation). This does not protect you against loss of your money if the securities were to decrease in market value. The protection kicks in where there is a case of brokerage house failure or bankruptcy. Coverage is up to $500,000.00 for covered securities and $100,000.00 for cash. The value of the above mentioned securities will fluctuate daily with the activity of the market so it is entirely possible that you can lose money if you decide to cash out at the wrong time. If you are willing to take this risk than you will be compensated with a better interest rate of return than the minuscule 1% to 2% you would normally get on a savings or C.D. account.
As you move up the scale of risk and reward, you will be taking a much greater chance of losing your money!!!
Now that you understand the danger of seeking out more reward, don't let it stop you from doing so. In life sometimes you need to take some risk to get ahead and reach true financial freedom. Investing in the stock market can be risky but the way to soften all the bumps that you will encounter is to diversify among asset classes and to have a long time horizon. That's easy to do if you are saving for retirement but maybe not so easy if you need the money sooner such as buying a house. A rule of thumb here is that if you need the money in 3 years or less, you should not be invested in stocks as a severe market correction (read decline) will be very difficult to overcome in 3 years or less. Also keep in mind that over the past 70 to 80 years, the stock market has averaged an approximate 10% rate of return.
The Risk and Reward relationship is understood very well by those who work on Wall Street but not so well by the average lay person. If you need proof of this, just keep an eye out for all the scams you see in the newspapers and on T.V. People get lured in all the time with the promise of high returns. The guiding maxim here is "If it seems too good to be true, then it generally is".
To summarize, the following is the order of investments from lowest risk and lowest reward to a higher risk and higher reward. The more risk you take on, the more reward you can expect to capture and the sooner you should be able to reach financial freedom:
Savings account are less risk-reward than bank c.d.'s which is less risk-reward than treasury bonds which is less risk-reward than municipal bonds which is less risk-reward than corporate bonds which is less risk-reward than mutual funds which is less risk-reward than individual stocks which is less risk-reward than stock options.

Chris Borg is a practicing pharmacist and financial adviser who writes about health care and investing. Chris's latest website on financial freedom is at RatraceBgone, where Chris provides financial tips such as the 9 steps to financial freedom: 9 Steps To Financial Freedom

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Chris_Borg

cPanel Dedicated Servers: What They Have To Present

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:25:00 +0000

By Aleka L Stone

If you ever have or are managing a small business, one of the most important guidelines is protecting your company data, enabling only those who are allowed access in order to have privy to that particular data. This means acquiring a cheap dedicated server for your business plus ensuring you've got the reliability you need for your organization in order to prosper.
You need a good company you could rely on, who can get the task executed appropriately and also whom you could stay with for the long run.
Getting a low-cost dedicated server means you've got the storage space for your business data and even helps extend and improve your business. They guarantee the foremost computer system reliability and enable for very easy and regulated access towards data. They don't just produce a groundwork for your business right now in its present situation, nonetheless they help with long term business advancement likewise. The web servers are actually one of the most vital parts of your computer system overall and that is the reason why the action of deciding on a server is so incredibly critical.

There are many companies you could go through if you're searching for less expensive dedicated web servers. The cPanel Company is one that is notably worth looking at. They're identified throughout the world for their top quality services and all they have to provide, and are worth taking into consideration as the providers of web servers and web hosting for your business as well. If you would like the best of the best, cPanel is a major name. Many businesses are presently depending on cPanel for the web servers and web hosting for their organization, and you can likewise.
The cPanel dedicated web servers have a whole lot to offer you. cPanel is definitely an industry leader, offering low-cost dedicated web servers and good quality, well-performing web hosting services as well. The knowledgeable, supportive company gives a number of options and programs, which you should look into before deciding. With the cPanel web servers, you have software which allows you to work a dedicated physical nameserver. The main benefit of this is that it allows you to then link to your own web servers using WHM's DNS Clustering function, and so any specific change you make to the data will be automatically sent to the DNS ONLY server, eliminating the necessity to run nameserver software in your web server.
In case you are considering cPanel VPS internet hosting or even VPS Forex internet hosting, you can actually go through the company and get started out right away. They've got a qualified, friendly assistance team that is at all times there and happy to answer any specific queries you may have. They're constantly working hard in order to get and maintain the commitment of their clients and also work to accomplish everything possible to guarantee it stays that way. For smaller to huge businesses alike, cPanel may help ensure you have the safety measures and protection you need. When you need a server for your organization, this company will be really worth considering and can work with you in order to create a customized plan to suit your needs. Should you ever require assistance through cPanel, you interact with the help team via mobile phone or online through their web page.

http://www.internetmarketinglive.biz/
http://vur.me/mvpbed/jvzoo

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Aleka_L_Stone

Try These Top Mobile Apps in 2012

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:24:00 +0000

By Steve L August

Over one million smartphone apps have been developed during the last three years and they have been downloaded more than 35 billion times. Therefore, there are a lot of apps you can get. However, it has become harder to find the right kind of app that can help you do wonderful things. Let me introduce some of these wonderful apps and explain what they could do.
Ferries HD: It is an iPad game that lets users handle a wide range of ferries and tests their agility through this. In this game, players need to guide these ferries to the right destination by drawing a path for them with their fingers. Apart from the free map Three Shores, it has three more maps - Underwater, Caribbean Island and Two passengers. Players can also share their scores as it has online leaderboards and Game Center support. The concept of Ferries HD is almost like Runway type of games, so it is not pretty new. However, this HD game is bit more exciting than other such games of the same genre. Ferries HD is a free app compatible with iPad and requires iOS 4.0 or later.
MetaTrader 5: This is an app version of the popular Forex trading platform MetaTrader 5. With it users can control their account, trade in the financial markets and analyze markets with technical indicators. It offers 14 most popular technical indicators such as Average True Range, Bollinger Bands, Commodity Channel Index and Force Index. To use MetaTrader 5, users must have an account or they need to register for a demo account. This app also lets them handle more than one trading account. However, the developers should think about including a Help section, as new users may find this app a bit too technical. MetaTrader 5 is a free app compatible with iPhone, iPod touch and iPad and requires iOS 4.0 or later. This app is also available in Windows and Android platforms.

Memo Gea: It helps users keep track of those things that they have to remember. Memo Gea can be utilized in business meetings or class lectures to make an audio recording or add text, pictures, and even web pages. This app would also come in handy when they want to note down their ideas. After launching it, users can start a new session by tapping Record New Session. Memo Geo has the ability to let users email documents straight from it. If the device is short on memory, users can adjust the quality settings to a slightly lower bitrate to free up the memory. I think the developers need to tweak the interface a bit more. Memo Gea is compatible with iPhone, iPod touch and iPad and requires iOS 5.0 or later. It costs USD 0.99.
In 2010, an average user spent 64 minutes on web and 43 minutes in using apps. However, in 2011 minutes spent on using mobile apps went up to 81 minutes while minutes spent on web was 74. Mobile apps have been rising in popularity as they are considered shortcuts to favorite programs or any websites that allow users to have fast and convenient access. You can try these three apps to make your life a little more interesting.

Author bio: Steve August is an iPhone app review expert and Chief Editor of AlphaDigits (alphadigits.com), a website that publishes Android app reviews and iPad app reviews. Developers can contact him through AlphaDigits to get their apps reviewed.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Steve_L_August

Trading Patterns - 1-2-3 Pattern

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:22:00 +0000

By Owen I. Moore

You will need to be familiar with identifying chart price trend like up-trend and down-trend to better recognize a 1-2-3 chart trading pattern. The basic chart pattern of an up-trend is a series of higher high and higher low and for down-trend a series of lower high and lower low.
1-2-3 pattern is one of the popular reversal trading patterns in Forex trading. Therefore you will need to have an established trend, whether up-trend or down-trend to have a valid 1-2-3 pattern. That is the reason you need to be an expert in identifying an up-trend and down-trend.
1-2-3 chart trading pattern start after an up-trend or down-trend pauses and stop registering higher high or lower low in an uptrend and down-trend respectively. The first thing you should do is to connect all the recent high and the recent low to establish a side-way price range. A side-way trading range will be established from these two lines.

Once you have the price inside the trading range mark recent high before the failed higher high as "1" then the low that come next as "2" and the failed higher high as "3". This is the same for the steps in a down-trend and this is the main component of the 1-2-3 chart trading pattern.
The trading signal will be generated once the price moves below or above the price leveled as "2". If the price moves and breaks the recent low leveled as "2" in an up-trend this is a selling signal. While if the price moves and breaks the recent high leveled as "2" in a down-trend this is a buying signal. It is highly effective if you take into consideration oscillator signals for additional confirmation particularly stochastic and MACD.
This is a quick trade that is why you need to place your stop-loss 10-20 pips off your entry price and you should already be profitable in the next three candles then quickly move your stop-loss to break even, target the next nearby moving average, Fibonacci levels or identified level of support or resistance. You can use this in the hourly time frame down to the one minute chart of course the higher the time the higher its reliability.
This pattern is not cast in stone and can some time result to false break out, always trade with a good risk reward ratio, this will make you profitable over the long-term. Practice makes perfect, that is why you will need to practice trading any pattern you put into your trading arsenal, once you get familiar with the nature of a pattern you start to understand how it moves, how it behave and you start to have a deeper understanding on the psychology behind the trading pattern and start to take advantage of the opportunity presented to you by such trading patterns.

Discover more about successful patterns you can use for trading by clicking on start day trading. You can also visit swing trading strategy for more useful trading ideas.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Owen_I._Moore

Fixed Fractional Money Management

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:21:00 +0000

By Shaun Michael Overton

Trading totally at random with a 50% winning percentage and an R multiple of 1 yields no advantage, as one naturally expects. Remember that an R multiple is the average win divided by the average loss. Such a system poses neither an advantage or disadvantage. The average outcome should come out extremely close to the starting balance.
Most traders focus on risking a set dollar amount such as $1,000 on a given trade. Fixed fractional money management updates that dollar figure after every single trade. It changes the overall outcome after you add up all the winners and all of the losers. Remember that trading is the net outcome of several hundred trades or even thousands of trades. The power of a position sizing or betting strategy comes into play as the number of trades increases.

Fixed fractional money management stretches some portions of the bell curve and compresses other regions. Before we get into that, it's important to remember what fixed fractional money management means. It stands for the idea of risking a set percentage of the current account equity rather than the starting equity.
Consider an example where the account balance starts at $100,000 risking 1%. Both methods risk the same amount on the first trade, $1,000. The next trade, however, will yield a different risk amount. A win on the previous trade would increase the account equity to $101,000. One percent of a 101 grand is $1,010 of risk on the next trade. A whopping ten dollar change.
That may seem trivial. It is most certainly not over the long run.
Examples
Consider a trader that plays a coin toss game and has a system with the following characteristics:
He starts with a $100, 000 account balance
His R multiple is 1.0
He wins 50% of the time with no trading costs
He risks 1%
A flip of heads means that he wins. He loses when the coin lands on tails.
The absolute worst outcome of playing the coin toss with a fixed dollar risk of $1,000 is a loss of $46,000. Adding fixed fractional money management during that difficult drawdown improves the drawdown to a less substantial loss of $37,500. The worst drawdown goes from -46% to -37.5%. The method drags the absolute worst case scenario and pulls it closer to the average. When an unlucky, devastating drawdown kicks in, the technique reduces the losses that the trader experiences.
The best case scenario for fixed dollar risk is a $58,000 (58%) return. Adding money management to the system dramatically stretches the best case scenario further to the right. It improves to a $76,000 return (76%). The good times get a lot better without changing anything at all about the trading system. The method stretches positive returns away from the average. The trader walks away with more money in his pocket.
The natural instinct is to conclude that fixed fractional money management is the way to go. I agree. It improves the risk reward profile of a totally random strategy. Adding it to a real trading system should help control parameters that most traders consider critical like drawdowns and maximizing the return.
An important consequence of using fixed fractional money management, however, is that the odds of receiving a below average return increase somewhat. The coin toss game suffered a below average return 47% of the time. Applying fixed fractional money management increased the likelihood of a below average return to 53%. The effect is not all that much. Losing is more likely. But when it happens, the "loss" is so negligible that it can be thought of as breaking even.
Random numbers occasionally follow a seemingly non-random pattern such as loss-win-loss-win. When this occurs, the size of the trade on the losses is bigger than the trade size of the winners. Even if the winning percentage comes out at precisely 50%, those wins get slightly overshadowed by the losers. That micro effect of slightly larger losses than gains shows up as a slightly increased risk of not making as much money as expected.
Graphing all outcomes
Red areas represent the losing outcomes while green areas represent the winners. Money management is really about maximizing the ratio of green area to red area. Random trades with no expectation of profit yield a standard bell curve.
Fixed fractional money management moves the highest density of returns slightly to the left. Doing so creates the trivial disadvantage of a slightly increased risk of negligible loss. Importantly, the far left side (the worst case loser) gets dragged much closer to the average. The far right side (the best case winner), gets stretched much further from the average. The tradeoff is a slightly increased risk of loss in exchange for better extreme outcomes.

Shaun Overton is the owner of OneStepRemoved.com, a company that specializes in programming expert advisors and strategies on behalf of traders. Sample strategies are found in the free expert advisor section. The MQL4, MQL5 and NinjaTrader source code is available directly from the site.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Shaun_Michael_Overton

Ideas For Good Investments

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:20:00 +0000

By Chris Gilmet

This article is for people that can, or cannot 'Think Outside The Box'. People that know there are ways to increase their retirement funds, but don't know how.
Investing in Trade Platforms, such as funds, stocks, commodities, bonds, futures, Forex, gold, oil, etc, are great options if you understand what is happening.
I am a Real Estate Investor by trade so I am biased when it comes to investing my money for retirement, I believe Real Estate is the safest vehicle, if due diligence is done correctly. Like Mark Twain said 'Land, they are not making it anymore,' and people have to live somewhere.
Which brings me to the point of this article: Real estate investors typically have certain information others don't. You as an informed real estate investor started buying properties to accomplish two objectives.

1. To produce more monthly cash flow.
2. And, increase your net worth.
I am going to show you how to sell your property at a discount and receive more monthly passive income than owning $1,000,000 worth of income producing properties. Can't be done I hear you say, follow me and imagine....
You own 10 rental properties. Each has a market value of $100,000 and all ten are paid off, no mortgages or loans.
1. You have a monthly cash flow of $10,000 (10 houses at $1000 a month rental income)
2. Your equity in the properties totals $1,000,000
You have heard about a private placement program that pays account holders 6% a month on cash funds they keep on deposit in their own account. You learned this from another investor, that is following this program. But you think 'this sounds too good to be true', well maybe you should say 'this sounds too good to be true, maybe I don't know the whole story' so you listen to the whole story.You learned you could sell all your properties for $600,000 (60% of value) and still have a cash flow more every month. Do you find it hard to believe? You, too, can learn the whole story, the secrets the banks already know.
Learn how banks make money on client deposits and learn that you can do the same and make more money on your own cash deposits. This is how to increase your cash flow, and your net worth by selling your properties for less. Thousands of others are earning 6% a month (that is not a typo) on their cash on deposit. Why not you?
I am using the example above, simplified for demonstration purposes;
Full Value of the properties =
$1,000,000
$10,000 x 12 months = $120,000 cash flow from rental income
Sell the properties at a discounted cash price =
$600,000 x
6% per month =
$36,000 x 12 months = $432,000 cash flow from cash on deposit.
Within the first year you have increased your networth, much more than if you had kept the properties AND you don't have the headaches of having tenants, just sit back and watch the income come in.
Remember; If it sounds too good to be true - you probably don't know the whole story.
If you want to know information about how to earn more with less, let me know.

Christine Gilmet
Real Estate Investor
FUB Investing Inc. (Can)
F.U.B. LLC (US)
CGG Investing. LP (US)
404-300-3672
1-877-320-3123
chris@fubinvesting.com
http://www.fubinvesting.com

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Chris_Gilmet

How To Choose The Best Binary Options Broker For Your Trading

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:19:00 +0000

By Vernon L Lees

Trading with binary options has become increasingly popular as an ever greater number of traders take up this highly profitable method of trading. The main attraction of trading with binary options rests with the potential for high payouts over a short time period. In addition the simple 'all or nothing nature of binary trading makes it one of the most accessible forms of trading on offer. Account opening with a broker is easy and you don't need a large deposit in order to get started.
When opening an account with a broker there are a number of things that you need to consider if you want to ensure that you give yourself the highest chance of trading success. Selecting the best binary options broker is not easy and there are a number of points that you should consider before opening an account.

Below are the key areas that you will need to ask of your broker before open your account and start trading.
The Binary Brokers Trading Platform
The trading platform offered by a binary broker is one of the most important points for consideration when it comes to selecting the besting binary broker for your trading.
Options trading platforms tend to be web based and so you need to ensure that they are both responsive and reliable.
In addition, the functionality provided by the platform can prove an important factor in the success of your trading. You need to look for a broker that offers accurate live prices and a simple to navigate menu that will allow you to trade accurately and efficiently. Also consider if you have a requirement for mobile trading. This is a feature which is increasingly being offered by brokers and will allow you to both track and open new positions while on the move.
The Available Options Types
All brokers will offer their clients the standard 'Call' and 'Put' options. These are sometimes referred to as 'classic' or higher/lower options. With these expiries you are able to profit if you call the market either high (Call) or lower (Put) than the strike price at which you enter the market.
However increasingly new expiries are being offered by some brokers. These will allow you to profit from a range of different market outcomes.
Touch options, where you predict if an asset will hit a level prior to its expiry and Boundary options are increasingly being provided by brokers for their trading clients. These offer a new dimension to trading and allow for many more strategies to be traded on your account.
If you think that you may make use of them then be sure to check that broker you are interested in offers them.
The Returns Offered
Brokers payout an agreed sum on the successful expiry of an 'in the money' option. However the level of profit that you will receive will depend upon the pricing offered by the broker. Typically you can expect to earn a return of between 60-90% on for a successful expiry.
Higher payouts are not always as advantageous as they first seem however. Some of the brokers who offer a lower return will also 'rebate' you part of the option cost if the option expiries 'out of the money.' In some cases this can be as much as 15% of the purchase cost. For new traders or inexperienced traders this can help them to limit their losses. Ok so you won't win as much for a profitable expiry, but you will also help to cushion the blow when you lose.
The Range Of Assets Available To Trade
The range of assets available to trade with binary brokers is vast. You can trade the major global Stock Indices, Forex pairs, Stocks and commodities all from within one account.
While most brokers will offer a wide range of assets to trade you will however find that their ranges differ. You can find the range of assets offered by a broker listed in their 'Asset Index' on their website. If you are planning to trade a specific index or stock you will need to check to see that they offer this before opening your account.
Option Expiry Times
The standard expires offered are usually one hour or the end of the day. However increasingly brokers are offering lower time frame option expiries that you can take advantage of.
Some brokers offer the ability to trade fifteen minute or thirty minute expires while with some weekly expiries for selected assets.
While for many traders this range of expiry times may seem excessive, it can pay to think about the strategies you intend to trade and whether or not the ability to trade a wider range of expiry times will contribute to the level of profits that you make from your binary trading.

You can find out more information on how to find the best binary options broker for your trading and more information on the opportunities provided by binary options trading by visiting us now at http://www.binary-brokers.com.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Vernon_L_Lees

Do Not Worry - Technical Analysis Will Be Done by Automated Forex Trading Signal Systems!

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:17:00 +0000

By Venu Modalavalasa

Forex (Foreign Exchange, Forex currency exchange) simply means the buying of one currency and selling another at the same time. In other words, the currency of one country is exchanged for those of another. The currencies of the world are on a floating exchange rate, and are always traded in pairs Euro/Dollar, Dollar/Yen, etc. In excess of 85 percent of all daily transactions involve trading of the major currencies.
Forex trading requires a constant monitoring. You can win the forex market if you can monitor the forex market all the time and should be able to analyze it. Trading forex needs a lot of research. Forex trading needs full time effort. Its not so easy to win the forex market just by being a part time trader.

Whether it is full time trader or a part time trader, forex market needs a lot of technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Doing fundamental analysis is really very easier than doing the technical analysis.
A technical analysis is founded on three suppositions:
1. Movement of the market considers everything;
2. Movement of prices is purposeful;
3. History repeats itself.
Basically technical analysis should be viewed as the study of historical prices at the market in order to forecast or even know with greater probability in what direction the future prices will move. Technical analysis needs various technical indicators, different types of charts, graphical methods and analytical methods.
Technical analysis needs a lot of time, concentration and patience. At the end of technical analysis, you get an idea when to buy the forex and when to sell the forex in order make the profits.
As a part time trader, you cannot keep much time for technical analysis. It's the work of full time traders. But in that case, how could a part time trader win the forex market?
Forex market is growing faster and faster than any other market in the world. Many latest tools have also evolved for the forex market. The solution for the part time traders is to get the forex trading signals.
Trading signals are time-tested indicators of trends in the forex market. Breakouts, support levels and resistance levels, envelope patterns, currency pairs near moving averages, stochastic lines, oscillators, Fibonacci levels - application of these indicators enable forex traders to make a profitable entry into the market. There are about 26 such indicators - reason enough for investors to rely on seasoned forex brokers.
In other words, Forex Trading Signals are selling and buying recommendations given by any third party. Such parties could be brokers, brokerage firms, analysts, traders, forex related software tools, etc. Different parties offer different signals, tips, and trends for trading in forex markets. It is best to collect daily Forex signals from reliable sources. A combination of fundamental and technical analysis forms the foundation of accurate Forex signals.
In the other way, the part time traders should either subscribe for signals with any forex expert organization or they should have some software tool which would do the technical analysis for them and give the signals.
If you subscribe for forex signals with any forex expert organization, the forex signals cost anywhere from $50 to $200 a month. It's up to the individual trader to decide if the cost is worth it. Don't think that signals can take the place of trader education: they are advice, and if you don't have the knowledge to analyze the advice, you should go back to the books before using a signal service.
Now coming to the forex trading software tools, there are some tools which will be available to you provided by your forex broker and also some independent tools (automated forex trading systems) which are independent on any of the brokers. These automated forex trading systems generate the signals for the day that when to buy the forex and when to sell the forex and automatically place orders for your broker without your presence
Coming to the automated forex trading systems that generate the trading signals, they are more handy. Generally the tools that are provided by forex brokers, they will be restricted to only particular currencies, but that would not be the case with the independent automated forex trading systems. These tools will be available in the internet market and that too for a low and affordable price. There is no need for you to pay every month for these tools; it's just a one time purchase. There tools generally doesn't cost more than $100.
The main advantage of these automated forex trading systems is that there is no need for you to depend on any other forex signal providing organizations or on the forex brokers who serves you. There are many chances that your forex brokers systems may also get down due to some other reasons. They can even trade for you even while you sleep!
To catch up with fast growing forex market and to make good profits in forex trading, I prefer the automated forex trading systems. These automated forex trading systems will be of more useful to both part time and full time forex traders.

Click here [http://www.automatedforextradingsystemsoftware.com] to get more information on Automated Forex Trading Systems [http://www.automatedforextradingsystemsoftware.com]
Venu Modalavalasa is a forex expert advisor since 1998.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Venu_Modalavalasa

Spot Forex Trading, Part 3 - Parallel and Inverse Analysis

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:15:00 +0000

By Mark A. Mc Donnell

Very few spot forex traders conduct any form of parallel and inverse analysis of the major currency pairs an exotic currency pairs to determine the best way to trade the forex market on a day-to-day basis. Forex traders do this in spite of the fact that it would be nearly impossible to trade the forex successfully not knowing where the overall strength and weakness was in the spot forex across multiple pairs or the entire forex market.

Lets look at some examples. Many forex traders like to trade the GBP/USD and they spend countless hours losing sleep waiting to trade this currency pair even when no trends or parallel/inverse currency pair confirmation is available. Losses occur and lifestyles change. Forex traders could increase their odds of success dramatically by setting up some forex trade entry rules and examples like the ones shown below.
Example 1 - Only buy the GBP/USD if the GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY are strengthening as well. This would be parallel confirmation that the GBP strengthening across the board. A simple but effective rule. A forex trader could enhance the rules further by examining the EUR/GBP for weakness. This is inverse currency pair entry confirmation.
Example 2 - Only buy the GBP/USD if the EUR/USD is strengthening and the USD/CHF is weakening. This would be confirming the trade entry with two other currency pairs and verification with across the board weakness in the USD. In either situation you have confirmed the forex trade entry with at least two other currency pairs. Both of these entry management rules would include a stop order.
But this is not what forex traders do. They want to trade the GBP/USD so badly that they "manufacture" a trade, or they want to use " forex technical indicators" that all conflict with each other, or trade the forex news. This is a mistake and is equivalent to betting or gambling and driven by greed. There is no logic to support the trade entry. This is not necessary because the forex works in a logical way.
Lets look at some other forex trade entry verification examples. Lets say a forex trader prefers to trade the GBP/JPY, you could set up rules for entry as follows: Only buy the GBP/JPY if the GBP is strong across the board based on parallel and inverse pairs, or only enter the GBP/JPY if the GBP/USD and USD/JPY are both strengthening somewhat or alot. In the second scenario the GBP/JPY will slingshot upward at a very fast pace due to the GBP strength combined with JPY weakness.
Or another scenario is for a forex trader only to buy the GBP/JPY if the EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY and AUD/JPY are all strengthening as well, in this case the USD is not in the picture because of across the board weakness in the JPY. Either way you have confirmed the spot forex trade entry with other currency pairs in the same parallel group..
Another example would be to buy the USD/CAD only if the EUR/CAD and AUD/CAD are also rising. Similar rules can be applied to any major pair or exotic currency pair and easily monitored upon entry. In the case of the three CAD pairs, if you also do a careful analysis of forex support and resistance, and you can trade the currency pair with the most pip potential rather than just trading the USD/CAD.
But this is not what traders do, they get stuck trading the same pairs like the EUR/USD repeatedly and wind up justifying a trade when a trade is not there. These forex trade entries are not based on logic they are based on emotional needs. This leads to losses. The spot forex works in a very logical process and you must let the logic work for you. Stop looking at forex technical indicators and start looking at other pairs in the same parallel and inverse groups to support your entries, these are the best indicators available.
Across the board strength and weakness in the 8 major parallel and inverse groups of currency pairs occurs weekly in the forex. But if you search the internet far and wide you will see that parallel and inverse analysis of the spot forex is rarely and in fact never discussed by forex traders, forex analysts, and forex trade planning services charging hefty monthly fees. People are too busy looking at forex technical indicators and absolutely no discussion of the market forces governing the spot forex ever occurs. This has to stop or the forex industry and traders will suffer.
It is very rare if nearly non-existent for one forex currency pair to move strong without other currency pairs to confirm the move. This is true for any major or exotic currency pair. If you are "stuck" trading the same currency pairs while the other pairs and exotic pairs are making strong moves its time to look at all of the currency pairs every night for your forex market analysis then pick the best opportunities to trade based on parallel and inverse analysis.
In order to trade the spot forex daily and weekly, you must analyze 15-20 pairs every day to determine the current market forces within each parallel or inverse group of pairs. This forex analysis will lead to less forex trade entries, but more logical forex trade entries, and better methods of confirmation of forex trade entries when the movement starts. Parallel and inverse analysis is the logic behind the spot forex.

Mark Mc Donnell is the lead trading plan writer for http://www.forexearlywarning.com an inexpensive trading plan service available to all spot forex traders. He is also the developer of The Forex Heatmap ™ http://www.theforexheatmap.com, which is a real time trade entry management system for spot forex traders.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Mark_A._Mc_Donnell

Forex Secrets - Developing The "Anti-Chaos" Trading Strategy And Tactics At Forex Market (Part II)

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:11:00 +0000

By Vyacheslav Vasilevich

(See beginning of this article under name Forex Secrets - Developing the "anti-chaos" trading strategy and tactics at Forex market (Part I)
It is horrible to imagine what could happen to USD rate at the spontaneous market in this case. At the controllable market of Forex USD rate would fall down just by 1-2%.
I hope that my opponents, who deny the existence of a system controlling Forex market, do remember the elementary economical laws. The spontaneous market is a barometer that establishes the real price of goods on the basis of the demand and supply (in the given case, it is the real rate of exchange of any national currency).
The Episode #2 . The hurricane "Katrina" and the flood in USA on September 7, 2005. USD rate stably increases. Chronicle of events.

As the result of the dam (dike) debacle, several states in USA become submerged. The industry, agriculture and transport network were destroyed. There started panic not only among common inhabitants but among officials of various ranks as well. Hundreds and thousands of people perished. There were cases of looting. Many looters (and, maybe, just desperately hungry and thirsty people) were shot by soldiers of USA army. The government of USA declared this hurricane to be a disaster on a national scale. For the first time a new plan of civic defense was introduced (see "BBC. The total chronicle of events").
"Katrina" was bringing USA to ruin. Senators from Louisiana asked $250 milliards from the federal budget for getting over "Katrina" after-effects.
Thus, it is an illustrative example of the greatest natural cataclysms in USA in the last decades. Even the poorest country in the world - Haiti - provided the financial help for USA ($ 36 thousands). The help of Ukraine made 1 million of hrivnias , etc.
What did happen to USD rate at the controllable Forex market? Notwithstanding all economical laws and even against the common sense, USD rate increased!
Chart 8.7. EURO/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)
Chart 8.8. GBP/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)
Brief conclusions for traders .
As I think, the thesis that Forex has turned from the spontaneous market to the controllable one does not need further proofs. Hence, traders must introduce amendments into strategy and tactic of their work at Forex.
What are the conclusions, significant for traders, logically follow from these facts?
Under the new conditions of the controllable market, a trader must not follow the "crowd" (flock). As B. Williams, A. Elder and many other authors have fairly emphasized, the "crowd" pushes the price at any spontaneous market. On the contrary, at the organized Forex market orders must be opened in advance of Consortium's interests!
I try to find the core of a good sense in each technique of the successful work at Forex . Is it necessary to rediscover the well-known principles? There are many prosperous traders who openly and honestly present their methods of gaining profits at Forex . If their techniques are successful, it means that these authors have a thorough grasp of the problem in its essence.
However, in practice, each of the techniques sometimes brings profits, whereas in other cases it is disadvantageous. And it does not matter, whether this technique is developed by B. Williams or by a not celebrated but a successful trader.
Conclusion #1. It is necessary to clearly delineate the domains where a given technique does work and where it fails (as well as the corresponding reasons). In such a way we can clearly understand what of the method by a given trader is worthwhile to be used - as well as how and when to make advantage of it for our work at Forex .
Conclusion #2 . Your trading system must not be just a mixture (farrago) of various techniques. This rule is especially important for the beginners. After reading heaps of books on Forex , all of them make complaints about "such a mess in their heads instead of enlightenment".
Conclusion #3. A trader must develop his own trading system. In order to gain profit, the following steps must be taken:
a. you choose just any technique developed by any author-trader (e.g., mine or B. Williams's, or somebody's else);
b. you must get used to work with the demo account according to this technique to such extent of automatism that you "sense' it as your own initial (original) trading system of the work at Forex
c. Only after this you should start to study additional literature. You must clearly see what pointes, "borrowed" from other authors, can help you personally to work at Forex , to improve your trading system for getting extra profits.
Objectiveness of Forex turning from the spontaneous market into the controllable one. The pattern of this process
Any profitable business transits from the spontaneous to the controllable one. It is an objective stage in the evolution of business undertakings.
In each branch of a big and super profitable business the initial stage of the chaotic competitive straggle is already has been passed through (petroleum, gas, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, precious metals, arms traffic, etc.). At present all these areas are definitely divided between the principal participants. That is, there exist certain financially-industrial groupings, well-controllable and protected from intrusion of a concurrent.
The same concerns the biggest and most conservative area of business - i.e., its financial branch, the world market of currency exchange included. Can it be otherwise? Can "Chaos" rule the market where the turnover exceeds $1 trillion per day? Can the biggest banks and governments depend on "Chaos" - i.e., be dependable of the "off-floor" traders - such as me and you? Can these organizations be worried about the direction in which we (traders) could turn the trend of all national currencies at this or that second? It is ridiculous to imagine!
To realize the power of the grouping that has organized the "game" of Forex all over the world, we should refer to the thesis from the journal "Speculator". In June, 2001 the three biggest dealers at Forex market - Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase и Deutsche Bank - together with Reuters Group PLC had started up the system Atriax . However, the latter did not meet competition and stopped operations in spring, 2002. The author of the paper just hinted that even the alliance of the 3 biggest world banks could not make any serious competition to Organizer of the "game" at Forex (to Consortium or somebody else).
In this connection, how one can take on trust the principal thesis by B. Williams concerning "Trading chaos" that rules Forex? What's important, all methods of this author issue from this postulate. The following conclusion by B. Williams's also raises doubts. He states that trends are created by traders, whereas brokers just realize these trends and place traders' orders. According to B. Williams, the fact that now trends are made rather "off-floor" than "on floor" (as it was earlier) permits detecting what next will happen at the market (see "Trading Chaos", Chapter 6).
So, to what extent can B. Williams's techniques be correct if their basis is principally erroneous? Let us enumerate the fundamental mistakes made in "Trading Chaos". It is necessary to facilitate understanding of the techniques and practical recommendations given by B. Williams concerning the work at Forex .
1. B. Williams sees Forex as a spontaneous market, uncontrollable by anybody. According to this author, it is chaos but not an organized system that would have its own strategy, tactic, techniques, goals, methods of fraud, etc.
2. B. Williams mentions the pair "trader + broker". However, unconsciously or deliberately, he has omitted the third participant of this very process. This is banks and the world financial system in general. Surely, this organization will not just take a detached view of the traders' arbitrary "game" with the basic world currencies (USD, EURO, GBP, CHF, etc.).
Let us now evolve B. Williams's idea by ourselves. Our aim is to demonstrate absurdity of his "chaos theory" applied to the up-to-date market of Forex.
· How brokers and banks market-makers can pay off profits from traders' deposits if the traders' total earnings would be bigger than the market-maker's profit in this period?
· Being in shoes of market-makers, National Banks, governments of leading countries of the world, etc., how will you conduct yourself on the eve of the news issue? For instance, after the publication of Michigan University Index, USD can "go up" by 150-200 points with respect to all national currencies. That is, in several hours dozens of milliards of USD will be redistributed. Somebody will earn the money, whereas somebody will lose it because of the difference in rates of exchange (quotations).
What will you do in the place of the biggest financial groupings? Would you just be sitting and taking sedative pills? Would you just be trying to guess what steps will be taken by professors of a Michigan University? Will 0.3% be added to the index previous value (91.4) or subtracted from it? What's important, this "difference" makes milliards of USD - for somebody! Possessing such capitals, would you just be sitting idly and waiting for God knows what? More probably, you will try to make this process controllable and predictable. Rather you will do your best to gain profit with the help of such indices and news. I think you will try to let the others lose their money.
· What does the theory of "chaos" at Forex represent by itself if Organizer of the "game" has trained all traders to act according to the stereotype?
a). To place stop-losses and postponed orders at the same places.
b). If the issued news are better than the prognostication, one must stake on "buy". Otherwise (if the news are worse than the prognostication), it is necessary to stake on "sell".
c). If a quicker moving average crosses the slower one upwards, the order must be opened on "buy". In the case of the downward crossover, the order must be opened on "sell".
d). In the case of divergence, one must try to work against the trend. B. Williams and other "classics" at least had to mention that it was basically absurd to work like this at the beginning of the trend and in the middle of it.
This is why the given chapter is named "Anti-trading chaos" - to be more precise, it is the anti-trading system.
Further I'll not dwell on absurdity of the chaos theory by B. Williams when applied to Forex . I hope it is quite clear. Any trader can find a lot of evidences of the fact that Forex is a controllable market. There are also many examples that prove fallacy of B. Williams's conclusion that traders form a trend and "push" it.
As I get it, the "game" of Forex and its rules in their essence are the following.
1. There is Organizer of the financial game (the Alligator) and participants (victims).
2. Organizer always tries to demonstrate: a). objectivity and honesty of the rules established by himself; b). simplicity of the analysis, predictability of the situations and the possibility of earning money easily and regularly by one of the numerous methods of the analysis (FA, TA, etc.).
3. All participants of the "game" are subjected to the same psychological treatment by Brokers, authors of numerical "classical" works on Forex and analysts via their sites and prognoses. That is, such specialists teach every trader to work as all others in the world do.
As the result, Organizer beforehand knows the traders' line of conduct in these or those situations. The percentage of "players"-losers is stable - about 90%.
4. A rapid growth in the number of fraudulent machinations developed by Brokers has become a logical continuation of the above-enumerated rules of the given game. Economists from Brokers have quickly grasped that the number 90% of traders-loses is very close to the figure 100%. What for will they send clients' transactions to the foreign market (the market-maker bank)? In fact, traders will lose all the same! Besides, it is possible to slightly "help" traders in their losing by "knocking down" stop-losses - all traders keep their stop-losses approximately at the same place. In addition, the following tricks can be done as well: the "slippage" (opening of transactions at a price much worse than the price at which the trader wanted to open the deal); computer "pending" at the beginning of the heavy movement in currency pairs. One can give many analogous examples - up to the undisguised fraudulent nonpayment of earned profits to traders.
These centers are also protected from the viewpoint of finances. If in flats the sums of orders of the traders who open transactions on "buy" and "sell" are approximately equal, Brokers can always hedge the difference between "buy" and "sell" with a market-maker under the condition of a heavy trend.
The only thing that cheats from Brokers are afraid of is the unmasking of methods of their work. Really, this will put an end to the afflux of new "victims"!
There are several sure signs of a fraudulent Brokers. In my educational course I enumerate some of such indications. However, here I give only one characteristic (traders should think about it well). If Brokers has one point of spread, you should calculate expenses on the marginal trade, in detail described in all "classical" manuals of Forex . For instance, let it be thought that you open the order for one lot. Forex Brokers supposedly buys EURO to the sum of $ 100 thousands for you. When you close the order, Forex Brokers supposedly transfer EURO to USD again. Thus, if you open 10 deals with EURO/USD pair during a day, your Forex Brokers is supposed to send money abroad and get it back 10 times, buying EURO for USD and v.v. All these transactions must be made exceptionally for you! Is it realistic?
In a next-door bank you should ask the conditions for the transfer of $100 thousands abroad and back. You will learn the cost of the commission for such services and the time required for this transaction (in half a day, the next day, etc.). Here I do not mention the papers that must be prepared for each transfer. I also say nothing about the time required for collecting all signatures.
I wonder, during this period of time what changes will occur in EURO/USD rate as the latter is altering every second?
5. To earn regularly at Forex, you have to master yourself. That is, a trading scheme must be developed. According to this scheme you will work against "generally accepted" rules. As it is already mentioned, these rules are popularized by Organizer of the game at Forex . Sticking to these rules, more than 90% of traders all over the world lose their money.
6. Developing my trading system, I have made use of numerous generally-recognized techniques of the work at Forex (by B. Williams, etc.). Surely, there is a kernel of good sense in any technique that enables earning money - even if in 50% of cases. Therefore, the trader's task is to differentiate the conditions, under which a given technique can provide profit. It is also necessary to understand where, when and why this technique yields a loss to the trader. Naturally, a trader must use only this first part of the system, where one can gain profit.
7. For the development of your own trading system, you must do your best to organically integrate different techniques, profitable at Forex. Various methods of giving analysis to Forex from different viewpoints do help us to more thoroughly and profoundly understand this market and, consequently, to gain profit regularly.
8. The game of Forex is widely spread all over the world. In addition to speculators, there are other participants in Forex - e.g., individuals who need to exchange currency for their business. All these factors provide an objective opportunity to gain profits bigger (and more regularly) than in any other financial game of the world.
9. Therefore, Forex gives a real opportunity to get into the principally new financial market and to become a really independent. Anybody can be engaged in trading at any point in the world. For sure, a State, much as it would want it, cannot deprive a trader of his production facilities because in this area gaining of profit depends just on one's techniques and skill.
10. Forex gives you just a chance to earn money. However, not everybody can learn how to gain real profit. Even after having mastered the fundamentals of making money at Forex , a trader needs to learn a lot of additional factors in order to transform his potential abilities into real money. In this connection the following aspects are very important.
a). the psychological stability (the absence of fear and hazard, the ability to work automatically at the subconscious level, etc);
b). a reliable broker (the trader's profits, being virtual, materialize only if you can convert it into real money at any second);
c). self-perfection via mastering new techniques of gaining profit, learning from an experienced instructor and due to exchanging opinions with other traders;
d). the possibility of obtaining money from the investor for the asset management. This gives the opportunity to proceed from the level of one's own deposit of several hundreds or thousands of USD to the principally new level of the work at Forex. In this way one can simultaneously reinvest a part of one's profits into the deposit and to spend money on heightening of one's own well-being. There is a simple example. At mini- Forex , many traders do not earn a lot of money: even if a trader has doubled his deposit in a month, his profit is small (e. g., by making $100 out of $50). Besides, a part of it he must take off from the deposit for the daily needs. I'll not give examples of large deposits because the tactics of work with them are principally different - as well as the percentage of profit.
11. Not everybody can cover a distance from the chance (the dream) to its realization - i.e., to making real money at Forex . As a trader, here you work against Organizer of this game, who is the professional. That is, to earn money regularly by taking it away from Organizer, one must become the professional himself. Do not hurry to open a real account at least till the time when you will learn to do the following:
a). As B. Williams himself, in several minutes to clearly see two possible alternatives of currency pair movement at the beginning of each session. Correspondingly, you must develop two business plans, where points of input into the market and output from it must be clearly designated.
b). To work out one's own tactic of the work with the demo account at Forex to perfection. The aim is to augment the demo account at least 2.5-3 times in a month.
c). To develop the long-term and intermediate strategies (not less than a month and a week, respectively) - as well as the short-term tactic (the intra-day trading session). Acquisition of this knowledge will help you to gain profit.
d). After opening of the real account, at the beginning you must work only with trends (under the conditions of flats you must deal with demo accounts). It is necessary to clearly distinguish one from another at the beginning of trading.
e). You must choose two ally currency pairs and work with them continuously, accumulating experience.
12. There can be reasons why your demo account does not augment regularly (in particular, maybe you are too busy at your main job). In this case, you better forget about Forex ! You must not open a real account there. It means that Forex is not intended for you.
By the way, there is completely nothing humiliating in the inability to make money at Forex . Some people do not understand technology, or literature. Others do not come to know fine arts, politics or sports, etc. Does anybody consider oneself inferior because of this reason? Surely, not at all!
Analogously, I perfectly well realize that the reaction to the last two items of my vision of the game at Forex can be inadequate. It will stimulate an immediate tide of slander and lies concerning me and my book. The reason is that I'm not an employee of BROKER but a trader. I try to understand recent rules of the game at Forex, its mechanisms and to explain them to others.
Note:
Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/
If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Vyacheslav Vasilevich (Masterforex-V)
Professional Trader from 2000 year.
President of Masterforex-V Trading Academy.
Author of Books:
1. Trade secrets by a professional trader or what B. Williams, A. Elder and J. Schwager not told about Forex to traders.
2. Technical analyses in Trading System MasterForex-V.
3. Entry and Exit Points at Forex Market
Free Books Website:
http://www.masterforex-v.su
http://www.masterforex-v.org

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Vyacheslav_Vasilevich

Forex Secret - Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Lose Their Deposit (Part II)

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:09:00 +0000

By Vyacheslav Vasilevich

(See beginning of this article under name Forex Secret. Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit. (Part I)
B. Williams quotes 5 bullets killing a trend, whereas I exemplify their insufficiency and I add up 11 more thereto, not denying the above 5 of them.
B. Williams idealizes the Elliott wave theory, whereas I show that the combination of fives and threes is none the idealizable, otherwise a mankind 100-year development project could have long been elaborated on the basis of Elliott waves pattern, leading to exasperation at the fact that humanity progress does not follow Elliott and Williams. The other thing is that nowadays brokers have mastered the job of manufacturing more waves out of the 5 initially.
The aforesaid is applicable to each of the 20 problems of Forex.

A portion of my live Forex trading methods are to be found in this book, while the other portion thereof is forwarded upon request. Those eager to continue training under my supervision as well as to trade live, please, feel free to contact me on my e-mail address below.
It all could be funny unless it were sad. But IT IS sad, because the above examples are scaring in number. Bearing it in mind, do, go again through excerpts from distinguished scholars books:
- Awesome Oscillator (AO) serves us keys from the Wonderland;
- Accelerator Oscillator (AC) gives us with significant superiority over other traders;
- using AO is similar to reading tomorrow's "Wall Street Journal", while using AC is reading of the day-after-tomorrow's issue thereof;
- by using AO solely, one may attain profits even without any knowledge of current rate; should the oscillator turn down, one may merely ring one's broker and say: "Sell at the market price!".
As You have guessed, these are extracts from B. Williams's "New aspects of Exchange Trade". Have You read the thing? And now, please, give a glance to the a foregoing figure, depicting the way, the vaunted Williams's indicators may entail an abyss of losses.
But what truly makes my blood boil is as follows. B. Williams is a professional psycho therapist and his narrative style is none of an incidental one. This is a suggestive method by virtue whereof he attempts to demonstrate the exclusive, correct and faultless nature of his trading technique. The "faultlessness" is to be discussed in an individual chapter, and my only claim here is that I can easily draw hundreds of examples, where one can bump into loss by way of following Williams's indicators.
By myself, I am an advocate of theory of chaos. But this theory is disclosed by Williams in a very primitive and a superficial manner, which fact results in his blind follower losses. As to the author, he resorts to propaganda methods instead of providing a clearcut distinction between the cases, where the above theory is 100% effective and those, where it is not.
Williams could have explained to his admirers directly, that in these certain instances the theory is to be relied upon, while in these instances it is not to. The difference is in this, this and this. In the former instances one should necessarily enter, whereas in the latter instances one should abstain from entry. But the guy haven't done the job (due to either not being desirous or to not having sufficient knowledge).
I was a success in finding out distinct operability criteria of the Williams's technique. To achieve this, I had to improve the Alligator, by virtue whereof I enabled my students to easily pinpoint the difference between the Williams No.1 option (a trend, encouraging profits) and No.2 option (a flat, inflictive of losses).
By the by, it is supportive of the chaos theory methodological correctness and of imperfect Williams's method structure, plotted on the basis thereof. Instead of acting upon the trader's consciousness Williams resorts to forbidden subconscious programming procedures, thus stimulating man's inherent and acquired instincts as if saying: "If You want to get rich, follow me! My method empowers one to trade without a single glance at a price! The Awesome Oscillator constitutes a key from a Kingdom!" Etc., etc., etc...
Hence, only 1 of 20 Williams's followers exhibits Forex-earning capabilities in a most favorable environment. Thus, under this statistics, B. Williams is better not to be idolized, the way he has been by the crowd of his admirers. On the other hand, other Forex maestros' trading techniques are far worse than that of B. Williams. So, let's continue illustrating Forex truisms being erroneous in live trading.
- The "Theory of Chaos" of B. Williams. The author has not advised what should be added up thereto. A separate chapter here is dedicated to the issue.
- Trader's psychological problems. I haven't found any revelations pertaining to THE WAYS OF ELIMINATING THESE PROBLEMS.
- The issue of a stop-loss order is certainly important: even under trend hedging is an indispensable protective shield against market surprise. But is the problem too far complicated to require a dozen pages' elucidation? Has the author beheld any secret? Wah! He hasn't noticed anything but he still has repeated all that wanders from book to book on Forex.
Once I was stunned by a question put forward by one of my students after having read B. Williams's "Trading Chaos": what's the use of giving so much attention to the stop-loss problem and above all what's the good of chewing over the role of safety cushions in the automobile industry as though readers are down with minority?
Doubtlessly, it's funny reading that Williams has never violated traffic regulations, priding himself on the occasion. Any psychiatrist could tell a hell lot about such a personality type, although, I should admit that Williams is American, not Russian.
Drawing picturesque, memorizing examples, each scholar is right to insist on protective barrier placement as a loss killer. But there is hardly anyone to introduce certain novelty into the issue and to disclose the secret as to what there should be in the trader's store besides a stop-loss to insure against his deposit melting and extra losses. A separate chapter here is targeted at the issue.
I have shortly come across an aphorism: "Genius is not to the effect, that nothing can be added thereto, but it is to the effect that nothing can be deleted there from".
If You go through numerous books on Forex at this aspect angle, You are sure to surprisingly find out that 90-100% of their contents may be subject to withdrawal. WHY?
BECAUSE nothing new and 100% correct is offered therein. Instead, reiteration is going on of what is familiar to any professional, since everyone is itching to exhibit one's originality by way of retelling: a paramount authority of FA over Forex exchange rates; continuation and reversal patterns; a stop-loss importance; a divergence being a component of a trend reversal, etc., i.e. book-to-book travelers.
"An outstanding Forex trading techniques" and "a genius scholar", etc., making their appearance in books' abstracts and annotations are off springs of 1% originality added up by an author to 99% of common knowledge.
Sale is publisher's primary target, giving birth to "genius" mediocrities and plagiarism. Standing separately among these books are opuses by B. Williams, being admired and scrutinized regularly by the majority of scholars and by myself. But EVEN HE cannot be qualified as "genius" with account to the above formula. He is rather "eccentric" than "genius".
The thing is not, that his technique is addenda-allowing (this fact backs the correct Williams's choice of the chaos theory to be applied to Forex) and I easily managed to add 11 trend-assassinating bullets to the 5 of Williams. The thing is that a number of Williams's postulates ARE WRONG and thus loss- inflictive. These can be and should be subject to removal.
CONCLUSION: I guess, it's understandable by now, that script-writing has turned to be business for scholars, incorporating additional advertising and additional charges for their students. However, the above is not worth millions Forex losers sacrifice.
Much more respect-triggering is Warren Buffet, having made a minimum of USD40 bn at the stock market without writing any books on his trading tactics. W. Buffet is the world's second-rich man after Bill Gates, although this fact being thoroughly doubtable. B. Gates is supposed to declare the whole of his income obtainable from the Microsoft Corporation, whereas W. Buffet, being a trader, is sure to deem himself entitled to show the Inland Revenue what he really wants to.
The difference is fairly evident. The profit obtained from US companies, constituting the Gates official fortune major portion, may be kept track of, as well as the offshore profits may sometimes be properly checked. But Buffet's profits attractable at all. Do You expect a man, lending his own daughter a sum of USD20 against a receipt, to allow ALL of his profits to be taxable by state? Or a moderate portion of profits is sufficient, yeah? It is entirely his job, whereas we are to learn to gain at least a spoonful of what he has acquired during 40 years of his activity at the stock exchange.
Thus, to cut it short: a classical Forex literature exhibits but an anti-scientific unsystematic nature, constituting a "crise de genre" and triggering losses among 90% of beginners, abandoning Forex market.
In what does science differ from a philistine and amateur effort? In a systematic and objective nature, in a methodology perspective. In there any of the above to be found with scholar literature on Forex? No, but instead there is in abundance:
A. Tautology and absence of new approaches. From book to book world-distinguished scholars feed traders (as if the latter were silly little chaps) with stories about R&S levels importance, technical indicators, continuation and reversal patterns, etc., which is as interesting and instructive for a professional trader as ABC reading is for a professor of philology.
B. Absence of integrity. Individually, it is all clear: Elliot waves, Fibonacci levels, resistance levels, reversal patterns, etc. But what's the way it all is interconnected and integrated? In what way it is influential over each other? What is primary and what is secondary? Imagine a doctor diagnoses and cures patients without a slightest idea of interaction of digestive, cardio-vascular and other systems.
This is what exactly happens to Forex beginners. They are sure to have learnt something, but they are being muddleheaded instead of having a systematic knowledge. Medical students undergo a course of anatomy. Geologists and military men make use of topographic maps. And what do Forex beginners have to this end? You are free to interrogate any scientist if he has knowledge of parts of science without having knowledge of the whole. Guess, what he's gonna answer? And now give consideration to what is being currently published on Forex and being accessible to anyone. Thereafter You will easily "evaluate" the "outstanding contribution" made by each of Forex scholars.
4. Methodology and techniques subjectivism and absence of objectivity. See live scholar, Th. Demark's "Technical Analysis As An Emerging Science" recommending to manually draw R&S lines from the right to the left instead of so previously doing from the left to the right. The book's preface qualifies it to be "refined techniques built during a quarter of a century of a laborious scrutiny of market tendencies and projecting methods". And thereinafter: "Demark's empiric-data strictly scientific approaches are in striking difference from an artistic intuitive one thus constituting a rational basis for dynamic systems, mechanically outputting market signals." But, with having not disclosed his system's essence, is Demark aware that his subjective Forex trading suggestions may happen to entail severe mistakes. Yeah, he substantiates his viewpoint in chapter "Why price projections may not go into effect": "...due to no technique being perfect". Good a science with "no technique being perfect"!
Demark is looking rather a philosopher, than a trader with his tirade being nothing but a sophism, made use of as back as in ancient Greece to provide grounds and protection for any kind of absurd.
In accordance to Demark, "a mistake becomes obvious the next day as soon, as the first deal price is registered". I am itching to ask the scholar: "How many points may a currency travel in a wrong direction during an earth day?" I am answering myself: 100 pts or 200 pts or more. Demark diagnoses: "This instance evidences a breach, indicative of a new opposite tendency". Well, I've got it.
Once there is loss, one should loss-close and enter oppositely.
Take a look at the picture below:
Fig.10. EURUSD H1 chart as of March, 22 - April, 18, 2005 manifesting a month-long flat. (See Note below)
How many days should one per-Demark loss-close with the rate repeatedly swiveling as though to Demark's ill luck? The scholar has to be asked, how large should a trader's deposit be to survive Demark's experiments, being ranked "refined techniques" and "strictly scientific approaches", "cardinally different from others' ", less scientific ones, as I can guess.
The opus author will again fall soothing upon You: "One oughtn't to expect herein outlined technical methods and indicators to offer profits and not to entail losses. Forex trading involves both: a profit opportunity and a loss risk. Preceding results are in no way guarantor of perspective success". Further on, with greater cynicism and hypocrisy: "Should You be seeking a trading panacea, put this book aside: it's in no way helpful to You". Well, what's the use of buying the book at such price?
Demark, by the way, gives the interpretation of his book's objective to be "fuelling readers with methodology, encouraging one to systematize various TA techniques". Great! I thought, it were a new discovery of Forex regularities to be delivered to traders. But it looks, like the scholar has plunged himself into systematizing earlier 50%-correct discoveries without taking any pertinent responsibility.
Hence, no avail to purchase the book and to litter one's brain therewith, since Forex rates enjoy 50/50 up-down travel chance, even under the probability theory.
Thus, not too much understandable, where Demark's scientific approach manifestation is to be searched, whereas the essence of things is incomprehensible once the reversal results come evident after an earth day only with no reference to his book.
John G. Murphy, another Forex scholar, outlines in the preface, that the "less art - more science" slogan is specially topical now that greater entities begin taking interest in this area.
As to myself, I have truly appreciated the preface writer Murphy joke as being filled with subtleness and tristesse.
Now, pertaining to science-to-practice correlation and theoretical conclusions implementation... How many scholars of those hundreds referred hereto resort to live examples while teaching long and short entries and close ups thereof? Very few of them:
- B. Williams "Trading Chaos", "New aspects of Exchange Trading";
- J. Murphy "TA of Futures Markets"
- S. Nisson "Japanese candlesticks. Financial markets graphic analysis"
- A. Elder "Basics of Exchange Trading"
- L. Williams. "Long-Term Secrets of Short Term Trade"
- Ch. Lebo, D. Lukas "Computer Analysis of Futures Markets"
- D. Swagger "TA, Comprehensive Course"
... and hardly few more.
Disappointing enough, but it is fairly lucid why 90% of beginners mutate into failures and abandon Forex.
By way of getting familiar with the SYSTEM, one will suddenly realize how smooth are Forex artifacts to get apparent one from another, e.g.: M5 Elliott waves constituting M15 wave I, this wave being but H1 and H4 corrective within certain Fibonacci levels.
One gets clear vision of what all the Forex-traded currencies are doing now and what they are going to in half a day. Williams did have grounds to claim, he needs several tens of minutes to analyze tens of charts. He DID have understood Forex as a system, though he has offered but the system components portrayal in his books. Depending on where utilized, the Alligator may appear to be responsible either for a profit or for a loss. But Williams has not even taken pains to present a differentiation between the Alligator being a profit assistant and the Alligator being a loss bringer.
The above is conditioned by the Williams Alligator being a great TA tool, but pertaining to a certain AREA OF Forex only. Other areas require other TA facilities. I will do my best to teach You to effect proper estimation of long-term and super short-term entries being appropriate for the moment.
I will also dwell on why it is not difficult to add extra 11 trend-killing bullets to the 5 of Williams's; why it is easy to build up a currency travel vector daily projection. The whole thing is minimized to several criteria, being constantly effective irrespective of currency intentions. As a result, You will not have to monthly pay quacking mountebanks' impotent daily forecasts.
But now let's move on with Forex scientific criteria. Stagnation and dogmatism are alternative attributes of Forex folios' anti-scientific substance. Have You ever come across a criticism of any Forex-oriented theory? I mean a weighed objective criticism, assigning credits to the author for elaborating a revolutionary theory, which has by now got obsolete due to a number of objective reasons and thus requires improvement, i.e. replacement.
For instance, I have found nothing of the kind in relation to the 100-year old Dow theory, originally incorporative of benign principles. But life goes on, and there seems no reason to head-hammer life-rectified Dow's postulates:
- a long-term trend (primary, basic as per Dow) being several years long. Curious enough to spot a currency pair to stand open for so a long period;
- a medium-term trend (intermediate tendency) being several months long. As per Dow, the MTT is opposite (corrective) to the basic trend;
- a short-term trend, not exceeding 3 weeks and incarnating minor fluctuations within the intermediate tendency;
- intraday trend being per-Dow midget ripples, not worth paying attention to.
You are now welcome to take a close look at the figures below, as of October, 2004 through March, 2005.
Fig.11. EURUSD D1 chart. (See Note below)
Fig.12. GBPUSD D1 chart. (See Note below)
CONCLUSION: This theory of Dow's might be deemed effective rather till late 80s, than presently.
Nowadays, with 3 pips spread, 50-200 pips pullbacks and trends not exceeding a week, the Dow theory
MUST BE recognized as being despairingly obsolete and trader-hostile, since, under a 3-pip spread, it is, certainly, top of recklessness and stupidity to stand open for months or years. A different trend classification is to be called for, meeting updated Forex environment standards.
I guess there's no need to continue being proponent of the fact that presently Forex theories are obsolete in their majority, with this sort of methodology being requisite for analysts rather than for traders. As opposed, I hold it more appropriate to forward my entry and exit technique to traders willing to conduct successful and loss-safe trading.
By way of prompting: please, attempt to view Forex as a system inclusive of components being familiar to You: Elliott waves, reversal patterns, Fibonacci levels, MAs, ally currencies, etc. All the above staff is integrally intercommunicative rather than existing individually, the way, each organ is in the human body.
I DID have understood it, and I realized the way B. Williams is able to analyze tens of currencies within tens of minutes in order to execute correct long and short entries.
It may look surprising to someone, but a qualified doctor is capable to diagnose Your body hazards after a short examination and talking to You. The doctor has actually examined but several organs, but his knowledge system has empowered him to jump at wider conclusions, as Williams at Forex.
GROSS TOTAL. Steady and regular Forex profits are real opportunity. There is hardly another area which enables one to knock up a fortune without having rich aged relatives abroad, without having to join one's native country's throughout corruptible authorities or else. If You have discovered THAT ANOTHER area, You are free to get engaged therein. Then, Forex is not likely to be requisite.
Note:
Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/
If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Vyacheslav Vasilevich (Masterforex-V)
Professional Trader from 2000 year.
President of Masterforex-V Trading Academy.
Author of Books:
1. Trade secrets by a professional trader or what B. Williams, A. Elder and J. Schwager not told about Forex to traders.
2. Technical analyses in Trading System MasterForex-V.
3. Entry and Exit Points at Forex Market
http://www.masterforex-v.su
http://www.masterforex-v.org

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Vyacheslav_Vasilevich

Forex Secret - Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit (Part I)

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:08:00 +0000

By Vyacheslav Vasilevich

This delusion globally entails identical aftermaths: 90-95% of traders turn steady to loose their deposits having studied books by Bill Williams, Alexander Elder, Thomas Demark, J. Schwager, et al.
Following the burn down of their first deposit trader's plunge themselves again into scrutinizing Forex scholars, in this manner suffering losses of the second, the third and subsequent deposit. I will hereinafter try to elucidate where from the above regularity grows, so that no trader repeats his forerunners' mistakes.
This statistics is common knowledge: 90% of traders constitute Forex losers... But the figure has always been giving rise to a leviathan of my doubts. It isn't because of somewhat different 95%-5% loser-to-winner ratio quoted in the Van Tarp and Brian June "Intraday trading: secrets of mastership". With 90% quoted universally, there naturally emerges the question, as to whether there is someone capable to check, to specify or to disprove the above figure.
NO ONE IS, besides the directors of largest Western banks providing streamline Forex quotes, but having never raised the issue.
WHY? Because should this statistics be published, there will be sharp and ultimate decline in number of those chasing easy profits from the world Forex market. Otherwise banks would not keep mum in advertising purposes. Neither would they be silent if losers constituted at least by few points less than 90%. In any advertising, customer attraction is ensured by quoting beneficial maxima and non-lucrative minima. This has always been, is being and will always be a universal practice.
As a conclusion, 10% Forex winners is a maximum result among traders. It's them, who have understood Forex market absolutely simple truisms and who attained steady daily earnings in amounts being gained by others within years or even the whole of life.

Certainly, those are to be recollected, who in late 80s were the first in the ex-USSR to grasp laws of commerce and who began accumulating their initial stock. The rules used to be so simple that presently any schoolboy or a first-year student can show the way the capital might have been easily scraped up and augmented on the USSR debris and in the course of market relations being established in the post-Soviet space.
I do exactly allow for the fact that through the years a new generation will be laughing at the way we are now incapable to comprehend the laws, where under currency rates either spike up or fall down, all of a sudden.
With this provision, those seeking fast money at Forex have a much greater time limit than the ones engaged in capital building in the post-Soviet space (Forex market is incommensurably greater than that in the ex-USSR), but not to the extent thought by many.
By now trends are thoroughly less numerous than they used to be 10-20 years ago. By way of taking a glance the charts history You are in the position to understand the way traders used to earn under 20- 40 pts spread, commission and slippage. A trend was followed by a trend at that epoch.
AND WHAT'S NOW? Nowadays many of traders are impotent to gain under 3 pts spread without commission and slippage.
Thus, this book is intended for those willing to perceive Forex market laws.
In order to get understanding of the way 5-10% of successful traders obtain profits, let's at the outset analyze the reasons and the way the outstanding 90% of traders suffer losses. The 90%-figure looks scaring, to say nothing of 95% or 98%. It occurs despite the amount of literature on the issue equals to hundreds of fundamental books, written by authors, having gained capitals expressed by means of more than 7-digit figures (G. Soros, B. Williams, A. Elder, T. Demark).
Thus, the above minimum of 90% of smart, well-read, broad-knowledged people:
- scrutinize the really great traders' heritage;
- open accounts with Forex Broker's and banks, start trading and...
- loose funds up to complete rout!
AND WHERE'S THE LOGIC? The answer springs to mind by itself... There's something wrong in the literature (by the way, recognized throughout the world, where the deposit-killing statistics is as disappointing as it is in our country) so long as its studying yields such oppressive results.
STRANGE? No, rather natural, than strange on account of the following:
1. Being a great trader is not indicative of everyone being a great teacher.
2. Multitude of rules elaborated by scholars 10-40 years ago, has grown obsolete, since the Forex market is changing.
3. The scholars HAVE NOT revealed ALL the secrets even WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE THEN
FOREX, therefore by now their advice and recommendation turn out either obsolete or naïve.
Thus, once one's advice and recommendations bring every 9 of 10 market participants to loose their money in each country, where one's books have used to be published and have enjoyed all sorts of hosanna in the press, THEN ONE IS NONE OF A TEACHER.
Naturally, no trader will reveal his professional secrets to the full. But when studying Forex literature one gets astonished by a negligible extent the above secrets are "confided" at all, with a book on Forex containing 99% of common truth and 1% only of useful novelties. But should one train up even several thousands perspective traders, one will in no way burden oneself with competitors, due to the Forex market huge sale nature. Beyond a shadow of a doubt the above traders are really great. You may agree or not, but anyone, having earned USD1 bn or more, deserves being named "great". So, one's books should be published as memoirs. I am not attaching any irony hereto, since these persons have acquired gains by virtue of their minds and labor, as opposite to Rockfellers, who inherited their fortunes or to Russian oligarchs, who either stole or got their capitals dirt-cheap from state authorities.
Hopefully, understandable is the difference between such editions and manuals for beginners.
G. Kasparov, say, is far from writing manuals for chess beginners, since the job can be better completed by others with this fact not at all undermining Kasparov's being a great chess player. And his advice and recommendation is sure to be of interest rather to a close circle of grand masters, than to those having touched the chess for the first time.
Actually Kasparov is but to be respected for not being tempted by the lust for fast money, by virtue of his name in the chess world and by way of cooking up manuals for beginners.
At Forex, by contrast, and for some reason, everyone deems oneself a teacher, which fact results in millions educated people worldwide leaving stock market being disappointed, angry with an inferiority complex life-time pursuit.
And hence, the unanswered question for them: is that all a fraud or not, since gains are midget, whereas losses are titanic?
I am recalling the book titled "The Alchemy of Finance" by G. Soros (the one I've read in early 90-s). I admit, it's interesting, instructive..., but it is all narrated in so an inarticulate and tangled manner. As indicated in the foreword by an American investor, the theory has hardly been understood by few only.
So what's the use of writing in such a manner? A theory may generally be complicated to any extent, BUT IT MUST BE wrapped in a simple, clear and understandable wording.
You are welcome to attempt to read the above book once You have time to. Shortly, the Soros reflexivity theory of the countries' cyclic development may easily bear a couple-sentence confinement:
1. Following liberation from totalitarian yoke, a country is granted credits, then, there is a rapid growth and flourish of economy.
2. As soon as the above credits are to be paid back, a country's economy faces a natural recession.
Is it as difficult? The question may be addressed to a schoolboy (to say nothing of an American investor): when should those countries' companies' shares be purchased and when they are to be advantageously sold in order to acquire maximum profit? What's going to happen in case one is too late to sell the shares, shortly exhibiting an impetuous growth in price?
Propounded long before, the Soros theory has been entirely corroborated in August, 98 by the dismal practice established in Asian and Pacific countries and later in Russia.
There still is another question: how inarticulate should Soros have been to enable his theory to be grasped by few only?
The second part of the book is not worth retelling. Reading its original is sure to be much more instructive with my annotation leaving no conundrums therein.
The theory is permeated by Soros's strategy: enter long on what's shortly going to enjoy price growth with a 100% probability and "pull out" Your money along with profits before the companies enter crisis, thus facilitating bankruptcies thereof.
This is the way I clearly lecture my students on Forex-related complexities, thus conveying my logics to them. Despite its own complexities (news, TA, corrective actions, etc.), Forex is essentially reduced to a very simple truth: at a certain moment one should not be late with going long or short on a currency with "tertium non datum".
And when asked if the Williams Alligator needs something to be added thereto, the majority of my students reply "Yes!", indicating what exactly is to be added.
I'll present a detailed vivisection of the issue in a separate chapter by way of proving that the Williams Alligator is but 50% effective.
Fig. 4. H1 EUR chart as of April 12, 2005. (See Note below)
The Alligator's jaws display upward opening with a fractal formed at 1.3006. According to Williams, one should enter long one point higher, i.e. at 1.3007. Upward motion continues extra 11 points. Then the rate sharply swivels to fall down by 170 pts.
Another example.
Fig. 5. H1 EUR chart as of April 22, 2005. (See Note below)
Please, figure out 1.3094, 16 pts above the previous fractal, following the Alligator upward opening. Thereafter, a sharp down swivel covering 140 pts.
Hundreds of similar examples may be drawn. But what are the implications?
With the Alligator's mouth opened, 50% of entries should be pro-Williams while the outstanding 50% - counter-Williams (i.e. vectored opposite to the Alligator mouth opening). When embarking on Forex, You must possess clear knowledge of the difference between either of the above 50%-portions. Otherwise..., You are doomed to loose even if You follow Williams's technique, let alone other ones.
Even my students are in the position to advise what is to be added to Alligator in order to realize proper entry vectoring. Least of all would I want this example to be taken as a personal criticism of Bill Williams, whose contribution to the Forex theory is a significant one. And the majority of traders, like me, used to begin earning after studying HIS books. But not to go astray..., even without any addenda Williams managed to make a tremendous fortune, since a skilled trader (moreover being the Alligator's father) is capable to differentiate between a steady travel and a pullback, or, say, a flat, or, visa versa, a trend low for the entry to be vectored oppositely. It is all fairly understandable for an experienced trader. But what about beginners as regards their interpretation of a flat, a recovery or a trend change?
These folks are sure to require assistance, especially, in information not presented in literature on Forex.
Without this knowledge a trader will never perceive the ABCs of stable daily earnings. But why the Forex scholars do not clear out the issue? This query is to be addressed to them, not to me. While reading these opuses, I am getting horrified at the fact that we are being foisted expensive high-sounding titled books, which are not going to ever teach a trader how to attain profits at the market.
Let's open one of them (E. Nayman's "Trader's Minor Encyclopedia" and "Master-trading: Secret Files") to get the understanding of the way almost all the books on Forex are written and supposed to have the price of USD20-100.
You may agree or not, but the name looks very beautiful and pretentious: "Master-trading: Secret Files", 320 pages of sheer secrets...
HOWEVER, I HAVEN'T FOUND ANY SECRETS THERE! You are welcome to discuss an argue Yourself:
1. "The interrelation between fundamental factors and exchange rate dynamics" being a detailed story of how a country's macroeconomic growing, benign rumors trading and political stability promote the exchange rate growth.
A "valuable" secret to be practically encountered in any Forex edition. But below is a real FA secret (not paid any attention to by Nayman): why does currency use to reverse against its country's economic news? A whole chapter here will be dedicated to the issue.
2. "Construction of two moving averages on a single chart and twin combinations thereof". The author furnishes a "wise" recommendation: entries should be made in the direction the MAs diverge (adding secretly that the most effective MA combination is 21, 55, 89, etc., as per Fibonacci).
The pseudo-secret nature of the above recommendation underlies the fact that any MA combination (should it be 21+55, as the author's; 10+20 as in many Western trading systems; 5+8+13 as per B. Williams or 1+21 as used by numerous traders) yields the same results.
Ok. It all looks great. However, E. Nayman et al., seem to have circumvented the MA intersection chief secret, through which traders suffer constant losses: a "lighter" MA has crossed a "heavier" one, say, upwards, but... thereafter there is sharp downturn resulting in the MAs intersection again.
Fig. 6. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 21-26, 2005. (See Note below)
A fivefold reciprocating crossing of MA 21 and 55. You are welcome to calculate traders' losses.
Now, let's call it a day with examples. The MA intersection technique operates perfectly in certain circumstances, while turning out impotent in others, thus inflicting losses upon traders. No criteria have ever been stipulated by Forex scholars as to entries to be effected pro- or counter-divergence of moving averages.
3. MACD construction and analysis. What sort of secret may one expect from the following statement of Nayman's: "a subsequent high being lower than the preceding one suggests a bullish trend depletion or even its changing with the same being visa versa under minimum MACD values". Much of a secret, isn't it? I thought it were the MACD operation principle, familiar to any Forex novice. The secret-fancier B. Williams hasn't even taken effort to advise to perform inputs change from 9, 12, 26 into 5, 34, 5 to provide for a lag killer.
Assuming the above, authentic MACD secrets are not paid any attention to by scholar, which fact inflicts losses upon traders. The situation comes into effect, when upon a divergence formation, no trend change is observed with another same-trend wave taking place instead.
Fig. 7. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 2005, where MA21 crosses MA55 with slight rise and sharp downturn. (See Note below)
Another example:
Fig. 8. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 2005: a divergence with MA10 upward crossing MA21; a brief nudge up to 1.8916 and a sharp downturn. (See Note below)
As different from Nayman and other Forex scholars, we'll touch in detail upon the ways to detect when MACD is trustworthy as a trend reversal attribute and when it is not.
4. TA classical patterns. One can not help smiling at the author sharing a secret of "head'n'shoulders" and "double bottom" patterns, being studied by beginners at the earliest lectures on Forex.
And here goes a real key secret: in what cases the patterns are indeed indicative of a reversal but in what cases brokers trap TA pattern-fanciers? Is there someone doubting the fact that patterns are known not only to traders, but as well to brokers with their mouths watering to make a rod for the backs of lovers and connoisseurs of the above patterns, just like on the sample chart below:
Fig. 9. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 09-11, 2005, a classical "inverted H&S" (See Note below)
At 1.8871 there's an impetuous upward breakthrough, the Alligator rotating upwards, MACD above zero, MA8 having intersected MA21 upwards, the Williams vaunted Awesome Oscillator signaling long entry, the Accelerator Oscillator pointing up... nevertheless, the rate reaches as far as 1.8916 and slips down to 1.8481 by 450 pts.
To be noted: much worth scrutinizing is the phenomenon of Nayman's "Trader's Minor Encyclopedia" and "Master-trading: secret files" purported at understanding why over 90% of traders turn losers after reading the books.
The solution, to my mind, is that the above opuses are but good "ABCs OF FOREX" thus giving birth to all Nayman's merits and demerits.
The guy is primarily awardable for having spared beginners' paying USD50-200 to various Forex training courses or academies. Instead, one can download and study Nayman's books, whose extracts are, by the way, quoted to trainees during their studies.
Nayman is generally to be expressed gratitude to, because of his having laid out the Forex basic course in a competent, popular and accessible way.
This is the point, I elucidate to every beginner, being introduced to me: first one should scrutinize Nayman's books, then only it's worth discussing hooks and crooks of earning at Forex instead of losing.
Nevertheless, there is a chief Nayman's self-delusion about his folios really being in no way secret files with no one being able to find anything new to enable oneself to improve one's Forex earnings. These books containing neither unique techniques nor non-standard solutions are famous for the generalization and systematization of what has been the Forex knowledge prior to Nayman.
But this fact is not realized by majority gripped by the "Master-trading: Secret Files" fascination, who open live accounts and turn losers inevitably.
Shortly upon their pre-mature success on demo accounts these folks hastened to open live accounts and faced losses. But since the Dealers' staff managed to convince them in the incidental nature of the above losses, the folks ventured to go live again and did again turn to be deposit killers.
With these facts being proclaimed, I don't hold it appropriate to call any statistics science for help. Any sensible man is to get the understanding of the above losses as not being of an incidental nature.
There could be NO OTHER WAY about it.
The next trader training level comprises books by B. Williams: "Trading Chaos" and "New aspects of exchange trading", where the author propounds his own Forex trading methods along with advertising the other ones', viz. Elliott's.
My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is purported at developing of THAT particular school of training traders to practical operation at Forex.
Hardly will anyone object to the fact that B. Williams will disclose his Forex intimacies free of charge. Neither will he furnish their 100% disclosure after being paid to.
In all his splendor, Williams possessed sufficient knowledge to;
- to share A PORTION of his secrets in his "Trading Chaos";
- to share A PORTION of his secrets as a paid training;
- not to share A PORTION of his secrets in the least.
My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is also dedicated to teaching how the Williams secret methods are to be decoded properly to ensure successful Forex trading capabilities.
Each of my book's 20 chapters is permeated with a common logic aimed at finding relevant discrepancies in literature on Forex and at presenting my personal technique of Forex trading.
B. Williams declares being capable of analyzing tens of currency pairs (of 140-bar history each) that within tens of minutes, but in no way does he explain how to, whereas, I explain, that it's feasible for any wide-screen trader, provided my computer monitor being 3-currency capable only (see: "Ally and adversary currencies").
B. Williams sings about his magic Alligator, while I disclose and eliminate its pitfalls by, say, adding a MA233 thereto. This arrangement visualizes the whole of the 4 potential currency travel options: up/down above MA233; up/down under MA233.
B. Williams lists a stop-loss to be a "safety cushion", whereas I disclose and eliminate its shortcomings by way of alternatively using my own pending orders.
B. Williams hold trades volume to be authentic resistance breakthrough criterion, while I quote reasons by which trades volume turns to be deceptive on Metatrader platforms (thanks to the banks Consortium) and I introduce my own levels true/false breach criteria.
Now, regarding trading on news, I demonstrate the way one can turn a loser if trade like all the others and I offer my own on-news trading style.
(See continuation of this article under name Forex Secret. Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit. (Part II)
Note:
Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/
If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Vyacheslav Vasilevich (Masterforex-V)
Professional Trader from 2000 year.
President of Masterforex-V Trading Academy.
Author of Books:
1. Trade secrets by a professional trader or what B. Williams, A. Elder and J. Schwager not told about Forex to traders.
2. Technical analyses in Trading System MasterForex-V.
3. Entry and Exit Points at Forex Market
http://www.masterforex-v.su
http://www.masterforex-v.org

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Vyacheslav_Vasilevich

Forex Secrets - Delusion No1 - Forex Currency Rate And Economic Factors Impact On Exchange Rate

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:06:00 +0000

By Vyacheslav Vasilevich

The delusion conceptually propounds that intraweek and intraday FOREX currency quotes movement is governed by either improvement or by deterioration of the state's economic situation. But in reality, even in case the actual Forex news is superior to the estimated one, the FOREX quotes up/down movement is of 50/50 probability.
This statement is thoroughly important. Once the job of Forex trader is gambling on FOREX exchange rates differential (FOREX pairs up/down movement), the following is to be realized to obtain faultless profit:

FOREX pairs pricing mechanism (say at point X where you are completing the market analysis)
Factors imparting growth/decline to FOREX rates (up/down from point X).
Thus, having understood the FOREX rates factors effective at the extra-exchange (book-maker) FOREX market and the given currency motive factors, a trader must possess distinct knowledge of whether to buy or to sell the given currency pair.
So, what are these factors?
FOREX student suggest unambiguous interpretation of factors responsible for the price formation and the fluctuations there of:
Forex rate constitutes a demand-supply balance for a given goods (currency).
Any violation of this balance, (for instance, in case where the estimated news is in disagreement with the issued official one), results in the FOREX rates reciprocation in chase of a new demand-supply balance. Poor demand brings about decline in a certain currency rate, with a high demand leading to the growth of the latter. The situation continues as long as the currency buy/sell demand comes to balance at another level or at another point.
Referring to the B. Williams ("Trading Chaos 2" Chapter 1 "The market is what you are thinking of it"):
Each world market is dedicated to distribute or share limited amount of something... among those desirous to obtain it most of all. The market affects it by way of finding out and identifying the exact price? Underlying the buyer'/sellers' power absolute equilibrium point.
The above point is readily established by stock, futures, bonds, FOREX and options markets, be it either via an open auction or by virtue of a computerized facility. Markets spot this point prior to any misbalance being detectable by you or by me or even by traders at the exchange floor.
With this scenario holding true - and it really does - we are in position to jump at certain simple yet important conclusions as regards the information being circulated through the market and enjoying doubtless acceptance".
Thomas Demark was more laconic in "Technical analysis - an emerging science":
"Price movement is governed by demand and supply. Should demand exceed supply, there's a price rally and if visa versa, there's a price decline. All economists do share these underlying principles".
Hence, the role of fundamental analysis for FOREX market is readily apparent.
In scholar fiction one will discover roughly the following explanation, persistently wandering from book to book, from site to site and suggesting attaining successful trading at FOREX market by way of scrutinizing the country's economic fundamental data, viz. by tracking the factors reflective of the country's economy condition as below:
State economy condition dynamics indicators (GDP, trade & payments balance, current account, industrial production, etc. It is knowledge, that the higher the above indicators - the faster the economic and the currency price growth);
Stock indices, via average arithmetic index of the country's securities market condition and dynamics. E.g.: 0.3% daily DJI growth in the USA means that this certain day the shares of 30 leading US companies, being pictured by DJU, went 0.3% more expensive. By similarity, DAX30 is the major German index, incorporating the price of shares of the country's 30 leading companies.
The country's interest rate, since the higher the rate, the greater number of investors is eager to invest into the country's economy and hence into national currency strength.
Rate of inflation (the higher the rate, the quicker the National Bank will hike the interest rate). With this assumption, the CPI constitutes a key factor.
Money supply growth in domestic market, which fact brings about the inflation, leading to the interest rate hike.
The country's gold and currency reserve assets.
Variation dynamics correlation of: balances of payment, trade balance, state budget, gross domestic product (GDP), etc.
Trade and industry dynamics (industrial production, industrial orders, DGO, capacity utilization, retail sales, etc.)
Construction statistics (construction spending, new home sales, housing under construction, building permits, etc.)
Labor statistics (unemployment rate, new jobs, etc.)
Society investigations (consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, purchase managers and service managers sentiment, etc.)
To be considered additionally are the country's political stability and tranquility (clearly, any political, natural and other cataclysms are sure to turn investors nervous making them withdraw the investments from the country, thus weakening its national currency). And with the currency being the national economy derivative, changes in economic data will inevitably result in the above currency rate movement.
Conclusions:
Progress in economy results in the currency exchange rate rally.
Decrease in economic indicators leads to the national currency rate decline.
To sum it up, critical economic and political news (whose calendar is issued in advance and is familiar to any trader) constitute a standing factor giving rise to misbalance and causing the currency rate fluctuations.
In anticipation of important economic and political news FOREX pair crawl to the rates as inspired by the estimates ("rumored trade"), whereas upon actual news there occurs a pulse motion of FOREX pairs in accordance with the scheme below;
Forex rate grows if actual news are better than the estimated one;
Forex rate declines if actual news are worse than the estimated one.
ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THESE ABC BASICS OF STUDYING FOREX?
Do you accept that one can earn money by way of using these basics, known to every trader?
Then why, having absorbed these economic axioms, 90% of Forex traders in the world are losers rather than winners.
Where is the delusion of the above ABC truth, nudging traders towards losses? Let us perform sort of point-by-point analysis.
The currency exchange FOREX market is a book-makers one. It is gambling on rates difference without direct money delivery to the exchange market, except for hedging of traders' funds by Forex brokers, via buy-sell difference especially during strong trends). Then, http://www.forexite.com reads: "Trading is performed without actual currencies supply, which fact cuts overheads and enables Forexite to go long and short on the currency" http://www.forexite.com/forexite_advantages/forex_advantages.html.
Comment: Have you ever met any book-makers;
- whose logics was coincident with that of THEIR clients (traders),
- whose stakes were being made in accordance with THEIR technical analysts forecasts, economic laws and common sense?
And what extent of doubt and skepticism should be attached to THEIR free "recommendations", "advice", "surveys" and "forecasts", laid out at THEIR sites through THEIR analysts?
As a regular result, over 90% of the world traders are still losing their deposits at FOREX each time they follow Thomas Demark stereotype that "All the economists share these underlying principles".
Comment No.1. In as much as the above underlying principles are 90% contradictory to practice, it gives rise to the following question. Might these "underlying principles, shared by all economists including Thomas Demark" have possibly turned into dogma, alien to life and practice?
Comment No.2. What should a trader lean on: practice or dogma even if supported by great names, provided that the trader is purported at earning money?
FOREX analysts issuing their daily bulky market reviews are not FOREX traders in the overwhelming majority (see detailed discussion below). And on bringing together pairs 1, 2 and 3 there appears certain regularity.
Please, think over A. Elder words, that: "FOREX rates and the fundamental analysis are tied together with a mile-long rope. The fundamental analysis is ultimately decisive. But anything is likely to happen prior to this eventuality". Another, yet no less renowned trader and analyst, Bill Williams underlines the same mental regularity of an experienced professional trader (level 3 of his trader's skill rating as per "Trading Chaos 2"): "On attaining level 3 you emerge as a self-provided pro trader. You are always familiar with the market's basic, usually invisible structure. You no longer need to refer to others' opinions. You needn't read "Wall Street Journal", watch market-oriented TV programs, and subscribe to information bulletins, waste money on information channels".
Comment: Logically, there is a counter-implication, that if You are eager to become a successful trader, You are to restrict the influence of various surveys and recommendations on yourself even in case they originate from the world famous "Wall Street Journal", to say nothing of crude gurus in analyst skins who use to know ahead of time where currencies will go.
Forex news is a scheduled issue of fundamental data, which as a rule impairs FOREX rates a sharp pulse of motion. But then, why the currency rates movement vector is only 50% coincident with the ABC truism logics as to where the rate should rush in case of actual news being much better or worse than the estimate. And, please, make an attempt to answer the following question, stirring for every trader: why with the new being worse than expected (say, on US economy), the USD currency would initially fall by 40 pips (news work-off) but in 5 to 10 minutes it would swivel back and would display a 200-point rally, with no account to either the issued news or to common sense.
Below are some examples:
Fig. 1. GBPUSD chart as of April 1, 2005 after the news, positive for the GBP and negative for the US economy.
See Note below
In March the CIPS manufacturing index amounted to 52.0 (with the previous data revised from 51.8 to 51.6). Oil price in NYC has grown by USD 2.40 up to USD57.70 per bbl (new record of the latest 21 years). Non-farm payrolls in the USA was minimum since last July (previous data revised towards lower values). There has been a decline in the Michigan sentiment index to 92.6 (median estimate was 92.9, with 92.9 previously).
All the US indices faced a fall down. DJI at NYSE has fallen by 99.46 pips (-0.95%) towards closing at 10404.30. NASDAQ declined by 14.42 pips (-0.72%) to 1984.81. S&P500 slipped by 7.67 pips (-0.65%) to 1172.92. 30-yr US Bonds yielded 4.729 (0.037 lower as compared to the previous close). By contrary, FTSE100 has grown by 19.60 pips (+0.40%) to 4914.00.
Now, the question is to certified economists: what will happen to the GBPUSD within one day or even several hours upon publication of these data? You are right, USD should not simply fall down, it should collapse. Powerfully, swiftly. Well, well...
And this time, the same question to experienced traders. By FOREX news headlines You might have guessed that the events are taking place at the Friday American session. Correct. Initially, anyway, the GBPUSD chart will go up by 100 pips (news wok-off), followed by a pullback. Then Forex chart starts a new rally.
It is now to be tracked whether the GBP will breach the latest rally high or not. If affirmative, it will rush up by approximately 160 pips (Elliott wave 1 was 100 pips, while EW 3 is 60% longer). But if the high is not breached? The GBP currency quote will in no way come to a standstill, moreover on Friday afternoon. Hence, - down, to the starting point! And, if breached, similar situation takes shape but the counting is performed in a "down" direction (EW1, being the same 100 pips plus 187 pips from 1.8826 to 1.8759 being EW 3).
The FOREX day trading tactics will be given scrutiny in a separate chapter. A still separate chapter will be dedicated to Friday trade at American session due to its inherent specifics and to strong seemingly inappropriate movement. The movement is, of course, appropriate. To say nothing of Friday. But it will be touched upon later.
Now, getting back to the currency chart. As apparent, the GBPUSD pair movement on Friday, April, 01, 2005 is in no way in conjunction with the US economy fundamental data. Each forex trader can provide from tens to hundreds of similar instances, where the news are of a certain vector, whereas, after a fraudulent rush along the news vector, a currency applies reverse thrust.
Thereafter, the next day, in daily currency surveys, certified economists are sure to explain all to us by way of inventing another undisguised nonsense, like: "in spite of certain data, traders decided that the currency has already worked-off this side". But! How could this occur on Apr, 01, 2005, provided that the currency has been staying flat in a narrow range in the course of the whole of the European session?
Otherwise, another explanation may emerge, that forex traders were expecting still more inferior news on the US economy... But! By how much more inferior, if according to DJ, the US non-farm payrolls MA was equivalent to 180K, with actual being +110K, estimate being +225K and prior being +243K? And in what manner do these economists count up world traders: by capita, by countries or by the funds, lost by those, who continued staying long in a holy belief in renowned academic scholars postulate of FOREX rates being tied up to countries' economy statistics.
I wonder if I'll ever chance to witness legal procedures to be instituted against any of those famous scholars, so that no one would dare claim that fundamental data trigger rate spikes.
The same pertains to economists, writing about the way, hundreds of thousands traders throughout the globe have conspired to conclude that it is time to reverse the trends with absolutely no grounds. Is it really feasible?
Such reading-matter is, but hammering a single question into one's head: is it lie or is it stupidity of those cooking daily reports for taking traders for a ride, fooling them up and keeping them from the truth, which might be of great avail to them in daily trading. Traders are not a decisive factor, thus rates movement is in no way dependent on their will. Practically in no way.
Wanna check? Negotiate with tens of traders of the trading floor and arrange for a simultaneous entry long on some exotic FOREX pair. In so doing, try to push up either the NZDHKD, or the NZDCAD, or the HKDCAD. No need? I think so. You'll certainly suffer failure with the above, to say nothing of the EUR, GBP, CHF.
Another example:
Fig.2. GBPUSD movement as of May 13, 2005.
See Note below
This is an M15 chart of the American session, where the USD pair has grown by over 100 pips from 1.8583 to 1.8481 against the news, negative for the US economy:
Most indices have dropped down: DJI at NYSE - by 49.36 pips (-0.48%) to close at 10140.12; S&P500 - by 5.31 pips (-0.46%) to 1154.05. NASDAQ has grown by 12.92 pips (+0.66%) to1976.80. 30yr US Bonds yielded 4.484 (0.047 drop from previous close)
There is a fall in Michigan sentiment index. In May UMich was 85.3 with med est 90.0 and prior 87.7. So it was worse than the estimate, reaching the low since March, 2003. The index decline was being observed for the fifth month.
The April US export price index was +0.6% with prior of +0.7%.
Below are other similar examples of that same day.
Fig. 3. EURUSD chart as of May 13, 2005.
See Note below
Hundreds of examples may be offered, where the Forex news vector is opposite to that of the currency movement. Practically, actual news may happen to be superior or inferior to the estimate. FOREX quotes up/down movement is also of 50/50 probability irrespective of the above.
Why does it happen and what is the way for a trader to pinpoint entries and exits? This is going to be discussed in ensuing chapters of this book.
Note:
Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/
If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Professional Trader from 2000 year.
President of Masterforex-V Trading Academy.
Author of Books:
1. Trade secrets by a professional trader or what B. Williams, A. Elder and J. Schwager not told about Forex to traders.
2. Technical analyses in Trading System MasterForex-V.
3. Entry and Exit Points at Forex Market
http://www.masterforex-v.su
http://www.masterforex-v.org

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Vyacheslav_Vasilevich

Forex Guide: Things That Every Beginner Traders Should Know Before They Start Trading in Forex

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:05:00 +0000

By Octa Arifiani

It's a fact that forex trading became a highly preferable investment method in the last decade. Combined with the internet as a global 24/7 network forex is reachable to everyone. I'll not give you about the basic explanation of forex trading in this article. I'm sure that i don't have to tell what forex trading is. People which familiar or have an interest in an investment know forex already. Don't they?

Forex trading is basically just an investment
As any other investment, there are always benefits and risks beyond forex trading. Many people/organization, especially forex brokers, its affiliate and those who earn their income by providing some forex related services says that forex trading have so much advantages compared to other investments; Forex is easy, with its non-stop 24 hours market, its wide range adjustable leverage, its automated trading platform, its offered better opportunity for income resource, and many more -- you name it as much as you want to...
Blinded by its 'beautiful dream imagination', many small/personal traders, especially for the new ones forgot that forex trading is basically still an investment program. Traders should never have a thought that forex trading is an income resource.
Common Beginner Traders Scenario
Beginner forex traders are usually follow the trend of forex trading without preparing and providing them self with an adequate understanding about what's inside forex trading. Their common scenarios are:
1. Know about forex trading
2. Have an interest in forex trading
3. Looking for an easy and profitable forex services
(Usually by looking for some services with less margin, high leverage, automated trading platform, and less risk? - which is too good to be true)
4. Start gambling with their trades
5. Unable to achieve profits as what their imagination
6. Repeating scenarios 3, 4 and 5
7. Repeating scenarios 3, 4 and 5 again... and again...
8. Realizing that they are losing too much or that their imagination along these days/weeks/months is wrong (i doubt that it would reach years)
9. Give up and quit their trading for good.
Where did they do wrong in above scenario? Is that wrong to always searching for a better service to back up our trade? In my point of view, there are no mistakes in that scenario at all. But it's just incomplete, and that's the most dangerous mistakes made by most beginner traders.
How to Overcome Traders Mistakes and Begin to Make Some Profits in Forex
The facts are, there are just 5% of forex traders which successes with their trading. To become as they are, we should insert step 2.5 in scenario above. This step will simplify above scenarios by eliminating the fourth and eighth and changing ninth step became TRADERS GOAL ACHIEVED.
2.5 Preparing yourself with a solid basic knowledge of forex trading
- Know about the fundamental of forex trading
- Learn about what and how forex market really is
- Train yourself to getting familiar with the technical analysis in forex trading
- Learn how psychological factor affecting in the trading and define our best trading personality
- Be aware in our risk and money management
- Develop your most effective unique trading system based on your knowledge.
We should keep in mind deeply that forex trading is an investment. There is no way that we could be a master in some investment that we've just dive in to for days or weeks. We have to do it by the right way, and don't forget to eliminate your rush in the goal achievement. You will surely find your best trading system that suits you, I guarantee that. But it would cost you some time for several trial and error system testing while you developing your experience in forex trading.
By using an analogical approach as a computer, forex broker is the application programs and operating system. We do need them to make sure that all we need its done, served and executed properly. But, how good the computerization execution speed and its performance are depends on the basic computer specification, which analogically as you.
How to Get Yourself Completely Forex Prepared
Learning and education materials are world widely spreading around us.
1. The first and the most value added a resource of forex trading is through book reading. Forex and investing categorized books are available in countless numbers in many bookstore and online bookstore. You should pick some of them to educate yourself with valuable knowledge of the theory beyond forex trading.
2. Try to get into some traders forum to know more about forex trading and the markets. Forex forum also a place to give you an information for forecasting the crowd psychological factor to forecast the currency price movement by examining on how do other traders react in some financial forex related world events.
3. Get a forex course. An expert forex traders or forex broker are offering this kind of forex educational method. The course are usually about the basic knowledge of forex, technical analysis technique usage and its tools, an expert trading advice or maybe in how to develop a particular tested forex trading system which profitable (if done right and backed by your forex basic knowledge).
4. Forex magazine subscription. Some forex magazines are published weekly, monthly and others might be yearly. These materials usually give you information about the updated forex market behavior overview and analysis which can be use for the input of the fundamental analysis of your forex trading.

Octa is a private investor, an online writer and the owner of a forex trading blog [http://forexocta.blogspot.com]. She owns an online bookstore with a numerous collection of investment related books. Octa also a contributor in some finance categorized blogs.

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Forex Trading Course - A Must for Forex Beginners

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:03:00 +0000

By Zevs Borealis

In the world's major economic Marketplace where exchanges achieve up to trillions of dollars each day, many people would really want to take part in this Marketplace. Aside from being the major financial Marketplace in the world, Forex is also the most liquid Marketplace in the world where trades are completed 24 hours a day.
A lot of Traders have turn out to be extremely wealthy Trading in the Forex Marketplace. And, many people who trade in the Forex Marketplace on a daily basis have found a great way to replace their day jobs. Some even became millionaires almost overnight by just Trading in this economic Marketplace.

Trading in the Forex Marketplace can be very attractive. However, you should also know that there have been people who suffered extreme financial losses in the Forex Marketplace. It is true that the Forex Marketplace offers a very good money-making opportunity to a lot of people, but it also has its risks.
It is a fact that people who didn't have the right knowledge and skills Trading in the Forex Marketplace suffered huge financial losses and some even went into debt. So, before you enter the Forex Marketplace, it is essential that you should have the necessary knowledge and skills as a Forex trader in order to minimize the risk of losing money and maximize the potential of making money.
Many people who were doing well in the Forex Marketplace have went through a Forex Course to get the knowledge and skills needed to successfully trade in this very liquid and very large economic Marketplace.
In a Forex Trading Education, you will learn about when it is the right time to buy or sell, chart the movements, spot Marketplace trends and also know how to use the different Trading platforms available in the Forex Marketplace.
You will also be familiarized with the terminologies used in the Forex Marketplace. Even the basic knowledge about Trading in the Forex Marketplace can be a great help with your money-making venture in the world's largest Marketplace.
There are different Forex Trading lessons offered, all you need to do is select one that suits your requirements as a trader. Even crash courses where all the basic things about Forex will be taught to you in a short period of time, full time online courses, where you will learn all about Forex through the internet and there are also full time real life classroom courses where you can learn the ropes about Forex in a real classroom with a live professor.
You can also become an apprentice. On the other hand, in order to become skilled at a lot about Forex as an apprentice, you need to make sure that you have a seasoned Forex trader who can share a lot of things to you about the Forex Marketplace.
Forex Trading Online - 5 Reasons Why You Should.
o Forex never sleeps
o Forex Trading online offers great leverage
o Forex prices are predictable
o Forex trading online is commission free
o Forex trading online is instant
The FX market is astoundingly fast! Your orders are executed, filled and confirmed usually within 1-2 seconds.
Since this is all done electronically with no humans involved, there is little to slow it down!
Forex trading online can get you where you want to go quicker and more profitably than any other form of trading. Check it out and see what Forex trading online can do for you!
A high-quality Forex Trading lessons will also clarify a lot about the primary and technical analysis of charts. As a trader, knowing how to analyze a chart is an essential skill that you should have. So, when you are looking for a Forex Trading lessons, you should look for a lessons that offers essential and technical analysis instruction.
Stress plays a vital part in Forex Traders. Knowing how to deal with stress is also a skill that you should develop. A good Forex Trading Education should teach you how to deal with stress and trade successfully and efficiently.
As much as possible, you should look for a Forex Skill that offer real Trading systems where students can trade real currency on the Forex Marketplace or at least trade on dummy accounts in a simulated Forex Marketplace. This hands-on knowledge will greatly benefit you. In addition, the best way to learn about anything is by actually experiencing it. Live Trading and simulations should be offered in a Forex Trading course.
Forex trading online can get you where you want to go quicker and more profitably than any other form of trading. Check it out and see what Forex trading online can do for you!

Zevs Borealis is the founder of a number of Forex Trading Sites. You can find more info about Forex Trading Online on: More Forex Trading Info [http://www.forextradingwebsite.com] You may publish the article on your website. If you do, not change the article, and include all html as direct links to our site.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Zevs_Borealis

Forex Options Market Overview

noreply@blogger.com (محمد الاسكندرانى) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 14:54:00 +0000

By John Nobile

The forex options market started as an over-the-counter (OTC) financial vehicle for large banks, financial institutions and large international corporations to hedge against foreign currency exposure. Like the forex spot market, the forex options market is considered an "interbank" market. However, with the plethora of real-time financial data and forex option trading software available to most investors through the internet, today's forex option market now includes an increasingly large number of individuals and corporations who are speculating and/or hedging foreign currency exposure via telephone or online forex trading platforms.
Forex option trading has emerged as an alternative investment vehicle for many traders and investors. As an investment tool, forex option trading provides both large and small investors with greater flexibility when determining the appropriate forex trading and hedging strategies to implement.

Most forex options trading is conducted via telephone as there are only a few forex brokers offering online forex option trading platforms.
Forex Option Defined - A forex option is a financial currency contract giving the forex option buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell a specific forex spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount the forex option buyer pays to the forex option seller for the forex option contract rights is called the forex option "premium."
The Forex Option Buyer - The buyer, or holder, of a foreign currency option has the choice to either sell the foreign currency option contract prior to expiration, or he or she can choose to hold the foreign currency options contract until expiration and exercise his or her right to take a position in the underlying spot foreign currency. The act of exercising the foreign currency option and taking the subsequent underlying position in the foreign currency spot market is known as "assignment" or being "assigned" a spot position.
The only initial financial obligation of the foreign currency option buyer is to pay the premium to the seller up front when the foreign currency option is initially purchased. Once the premium is paid, the foreign currency option holder has no other financial obligation (no margin is required) until the foreign currency option is either offset or expires.
On the expiration date, the call buyer can exercise his or her right to buy the underlying foreign currency spot position at the foreign currency option's strike price, and a put holder can exercise his or her right to sell the underlying foreign currency spot position at the foreign currency option's strike price. Most foreign currency options are not exercised by the buyer, but instead are offset in the market before expiration.
Foreign currency options expires worthless if, at the time the foreign currency option expires, the strike price is "out-of-the-money." In simplest terms, a foreign currency option is "out-of-the-money" if the underlying foreign currency spot price is lower than a foreign currency call option's strike price, or the underlying foreign currency spot price is higher than a put option's strike price. Once a foreign currency option has expired worthless, the foreign currency option contract itself expires and neither the buyer nor the seller have any further obligation to the other party.
The Forex Option Seller - The foreign currency option seller may also be called the "writer" or "grantor" of a foreign currency option contract. The seller of a foreign currency option is contractually obligated to take the opposite underlying foreign currency spot position if the buyer exercises his right. In return for the premium paid by the buyer, the seller assumes the risk of taking a possible adverse position at a later point in time in the foreign currency spot market.
Initially, the foreign currency option seller collects the premium paid by the foreign currency option buyer (the buyer's funds will immediately be transferred into the seller's foreign currency trading account). The foreign currency option seller must have the funds in his or her account to cover the initial margin requirement. If the markets move in a favorable direction for the seller, the seller will not have to post any more funds for his foreign currency options other than the initial margin requirement. However, if the markets move in an unfavorable direction for the foreign currency options seller, the seller may have to post additional funds to his or her foreign currency trading account to keep the balance in the foreign currency trading account above the maintenance margin requirement.
Just like the buyer, the foreign currency option seller has the choice to either offset (buy back) the foreign currency option contract in the options market prior to expiration, or the seller can choose to hold the foreign currency option contract until expiration. If the foreign currency options seller holds the contract until expiration, one of two scenarios will occur: (1) the seller will take the opposite underlying foreign currency spot position if the buyer exercises the option or (2) the seller will simply let the foreign currency option expire worthless (keeping the entire premium) if the strike price is out-of-the-money.
Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign currency options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For every put buyer there is a put seller, and for every call buyer there is a call seller. The foreign currency options buyer pays a premium to the foreign currency options seller in every option transaction.
Forex Call Option - A foreign exchange call option gives the foreign exchange options buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase a specific foreign exchange spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount the foreign exchange option buyer pays to the foreign exchange option seller for the foreign exchange option contract rights is called the option "premium."
Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign exchange options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For every foreign exchange put buyer there is a foreign exchange put seller, and for every foreign exchange call buyer there is a foreign exchange call seller. The foreign exchange options buyer pays a premium to the foreign exchange options seller in every option transaction.
The Forex Put Option - A foreign exchange put option gives the foreign exchange options buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specific foreign exchange spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount the foreign exchange option buyer pays to the foreign exchange option seller for the foreign exchange option contract rights is called the option "premium."
Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign exchange options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For every foreign exchange put buyer there is a foreign exchange put seller, and for every foreign exchange call buyer there is a foreign exchange call seller. The foreign exchange options buyer pays a premium to the foreign exchange options seller in every option transaction.
Plain Vanilla Forex Options - Plain vanilla options generally refer to standard put and call option contracts traded through an exchange (however, in the case of forex option trading, plain vanilla options would refer to the standard, generic forex option contracts that are traded through an over-the-counter (OTC) forex options dealer or clearinghouse). In simplest terms, vanilla forex options would be defined as the buying or selling of a standard forex call option contract or a forex put option contract.
Exotic Forex Options - To understand what makes an exotic forex option "exotic," you must first understand what makes a forex option "non-vanilla." Plain vanilla forex options have a definitive expiration structure, payout structure and payout amount. Exotic forex option contracts may have a change in one or all of the above features of a vanilla forex option. It is important to note that exotic options, since they are often tailored to a specific's investor's needs by an exotic forex options broker, are generally not very liquid, if at all.
Intrinsic & Extrinsic Value - The price of an FX option is calculated into two separate parts, the intrinsic value and the extrinsic (time) value.
The intrinsic value of an FX option is defined as the difference between the strike price and the underlying FX spot contract rate (American Style Options) or the FX forward rate (European Style Options). The intrinsic value represents the actual value of the FX option if exercised. Please note that the intrinsic value must be zero (0) or above - if an FX option has no intrinsic value, then the FX option is simply referred to as having no (or zero) intrinsic value (the intrinsic value is never represented as a negative number). An FX option with no intrinsic value is considered "out-of-the-money," an FX option having intrinsic value is considered "in-the-money," and an FX option with a strike price at, or very close to, the underlying FX spot rate is considered "at-the-money."
The extrinsic value of an FX option is commonly referred to as the "time" value and is defined as the value of an FX option beyond the intrinsic value. A number of factors contribute to the calculation of the extrinsic value including, but not limited to, the volatility of the two spot currencies involved, the time left until expiration, the riskless interest rate of both currencies, the spot price of both currencies and the strike price of the FX option. It is important to note that the extrinsic value of FX options erodes as its expiration nears. An FX option with 60 days left to expiration will be worth more than the same FX option that has only 30 days left to expiration. Because there is more time for the underlying FX spot price to possibly move in a favorable direction, FX options sellers demand (and FX options buyers are willing to pay) a larger premium for the extra amount of time.
Volatility - Volatility is considered the most important factor when pricing forex options and it measures movements in the price of the underlying. High volatility increases the probability that the forex option could expire in-the-money and increases the risk to the forex option seller who, in turn, can demand a larger premium. An increase in volatility causes an increase in the price of both call and put options.
Delta - The delta of a forex option is defined as the change in price of a forex option relative to a change in the underlying forex spot rate. A change in a forex option's delta can be influenced by a change in the underlying forex spot rate, a change in volatility, a change in the riskless interest rate of the underlying spot currencies or simply by the passage of time (nearing of the expiration date).
The delta must always be calculated in a range of zero to one (0-1.0). Generally, the delta of a deep out-of-the-money forex option will be closer to zero, the delta of an at-the-money forex option will be near .5 (the probability of exercise is near 50%) and the delta of deep in-the-money forex options will be closer to 1.0. In simplest terms, the closer a forex option's strike price is relative to the underlying spot forex rate, the higher the delta because it is more sensitive to a change in the underlying rate.

John Nobile - Senior Account Executive
CFOS/FX - Online Forex Spot and Options Brokerage

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