tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30634057768067399992026-07-18T00:20:42.993-04:00babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.comBlogger332125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-82427217266764108762015-10-04T14:57:00.005-04:002015-10-04T14:57:43.126-04:00

Pretty exciting week, especially Friday, when market reversed intra-day. These intra-day reversals are significant on short/intermediate time frames especially when market tries to make a fresh lower low or a fresh higher high but fails. We had a failed rally after the Feds announcement that they were not going to rise the rates, SPX flied to 2016 just to turn red by the end of the day. After

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-22925074127220115112015-09-18T22:14:00.002-04:002015-09-19T13:58:38.704-04:00

No surprise this week except the market behavior after the announcement that rates won't be increased. I expected a big rally after 2:30pm yesterday. However, market rallied indeed but closed on red by the end of the day. Not only that but it continued to plunge today. Anyway, I've got rid of my long positions and now I'm mostly in cash and a little bit in bonds. As I said last week, in my

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-24957251889958081842015-09-11T21:10:00.006-04:002015-09-11T21:14:13.360-04:00

A week with a bit of gains but this doesn't affect the long term at all. More exactly, after making a lower low last week we saw another lower high this week. It is possible to see a fresh lower low next week that is going to put bulls in an even worse situation that they are already in. However, the decision to not raise the rates this month is more likely to lift the market pretty

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-33415523395912915472015-09-04T18:34:00.000-04:002015-09-04T18:34:09.129-04:00

Bulls and bears are exchanging insults on every financial board at a rate I haven't seen for a while. This is due to the huge volatility we have these days that makes market swinging strongly in both directions so everyone is right for one day and wrong the next day. What makes me laugh is they are bragging about huge gains one day then, if next day they are losing everything plus change they

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-21987294446476705212015-08-28T19:58:00.001-04:002015-08-28T21:03:05.970-04:00

The title is a summary of the stock market as of today, August 28, 2015. So we had a crazy week with SPX swinging about 150 points just to end up 20 points above last Friday close. On short term probably bulls managed to get a temporary bottom. On long term market remains bullish, or more exactly we are still in a bull market. However, the bearish momentum created in the last 10 days it's a

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-84952134037492079182015-08-26T09:38:00.000-04:002015-08-28T21:03:59.515-04:00

Not yet! This is the most bearish momentum since 2011 but technically we are not yet in the bear market. At least according to my timing method. For those of you new to my blog I am going to write a few words about my timing method. Basically is an improved version (I'm bragging, of course) of MACD. I am using exponential moving averages crossovers in order to get "buy" or "sell" signals.

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-46887016660504881532014-04-17T19:11:00.001-04:002014-04-17T19:11:11.276-04:00

Nice gains this week but doesn't change too much the general view. Long term remains bullish with SPX making a nice higher low on weekly chart. The question is if it's going to make a fresh higher high, somewhere in the 1,900-1,930 area. Nasdaq continues to be the most negative index. It made a clear lower low on weekly chart. Let's see if it makes another lower low! That's very important.

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-79421639931025097442014-04-11T18:54:00.000-04:002014-04-11T18:54:00.396-04:00

... at least Nasdaq and Russell 2000 say this. SPX still looks OK but next week it may go into bearish territory as well. I just loaded this video. babaro

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-73664515932442131372014-04-10T19:07:00.005-04:002014-04-10T19:07:53.457-04:00

Haven't been on this blog for a long time due to personal issues. I feel better now but I am going to make more YouTube videos than posting here. My kid challenged me! He said he is going to have more visitors than me :) He is probably be right since most of the people reading this blog are not going to come back due to my lack of activity. Overall I think market remains bullish long term but

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-29569926008094074192013-06-20T15:44:00.001-04:002013-06-20T15:44:13.847-04:00

This is one of the strangest rally we had since the March 2009 bottom. No other rally fooled me more than the present one. Is this the end of this long rally? Probably, but after being wrong twice in a row my level of confidence is not so high at the moment. What happens now and din't happen during the previous fake sell signals? First of all, SPX slipped bellow SMA 50 on daily chart, a level

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-16629264173827012142013-05-31T18:50:00.000-04:002013-05-31T18:50:06.306-04:00

It was a quiet, boring trading week until today, or more exactly until the last hour of trading when SPX lost 24 points. The week ends with a 22 points loss but on monthly basis SPX gained over 30 points making this month the 7th straight month on the upside, a pretty solid rally. The bullish momentum is still intact on all time frames. The 4 hours chart still shows a bullish EMAs crossing

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-78110626861143130942013-05-24T19:18:00.000-04:002013-05-24T19:18:02.207-04:00

After touching a fresh intra-day high of 1,687, SPX pulled back no less than 30 points the same day. Two attempts (yesterday and today) to push market further down were unsuccessful. After going down to 1,637 in the morning SPX rallied to 1,650 bringing the total loss this week to 15-17 points. this drop was not sufficient to bring any major changes at the technical level. Market remains

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-12503957601673257282013-05-17T20:25:00.001-04:002013-05-17T20:25:44.536-04:00

Forth week in the row on the upside and market, once again, claims record highs. This is one of the longest rally since the March 2009 bottom, 6 months old and no less than 300 points on SPX. However, looking at the charts on all time frames it looks like market is getting overbought. Look on daily and weekly chart at DMI, they are all positive, of course, but notice their value, quite high I

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-61046333387108687272013-04-27T21:18:00.001-04:002013-04-27T21:18:13.727-04:00

Somebody please help me take the foot out of my mouth! Another bad call from my part, here is the second whip-saw in the row (third actually but I didn't fell for the first one) during this crazy rally. It never happen before, I mean yes, I've got whip-saws but not three of them during the same rally. This is the most volatile rally I've seen in years. OK, bulls, I understand you are very

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-43411161478363234482013-04-19T16:32:00.001-04:002013-04-19T16:32:12.365-04:00

After getting a sell signal yesterday, there was no continuation today and SPX is now once again above SMA 50 on daily chart. Even worse, bulls managed to push SPX just above the support level on weekly chart. So, despite EMAs bearish crossing, bulls remain slightly in control. Another bullish day on Monday with SPX climbing above SMA 120 will cancel the sell signal. Let's look now on a

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-33253244820489485672013-04-18T16:31:00.002-04:002013-04-18T16:31:32.629-04:00

The correction seems to be here! Another day on the downside and  EMAs are giving a bearish crossing on two hour chart. We've seen EMAs crossing before and the market refused to correct but this time bears also managed to push SPX slightly bellow SMA 50, an event that didn't occur during the 5 months rally.  SPX broke bellow support levels on both daily and weekly chart. In

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-44053265044327597022013-04-17T19:00:00.003-04:002013-04-17T19:00:54.025-04:00

Monday was a pretty bearish day with SPX losing over 30 points but there was no continuation since on Tuesday market regained 2/3rd of previous day loses. Yet today was another bearish day letting one wondering what is going to happen next. Are we going to have another fake move on the downside or this time we are going to have the long waited correction?  EMAs are almost about to give a

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-50128307161301555122013-04-14T20:07:00.001-04:002013-04-14T20:07:45.333-04:00

Another extremely bullish week (36 points gain) and SPX has reached all time highs. As you can imagine there is no resistance ahead since SPX is wondering now in uncharted territories. This doesn't mean market will go up forever. It will correct, of course, but nobody knows when this will happen. As for the bear market ... there are no long term bearish signs so far.  Weekly chart

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-12955322748756569492013-04-05T17:05:00.002-04:002013-04-05T17:05:44.383-04:00

... this was the pattern in the last 13 trading days! Yet the gains were a little bit larger than the drops that allowed SPX to climb to all time highs(1,571). However, with today's drop SPX is just slightly above the level seen 3 weeks ago. Once again the EMAs on 2 hours chart look like are about to give a bearish crossing. The last two bearish crossings turned out to be fake moves on the

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-71745977483173413792013-03-24T12:13:00.002-04:002013-03-24T12:13:21.725-04:00

SPX closed slightly down this week but the bullish momentum remains unchallenged. Bears could probably argue that market is making lower highs and lower lows on daily chart and that daily DMI is just a little bit positive but the action remains bullish. Bears pushed market down a few times this week but bulls recovered nicely. On intermediate time frame SPX remains bullish, the two

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-36407831561330681602013-03-08T17:03:00.000-05:002013-03-08T17:03:06.037-05:00

It's never funny to lose money but this is exactly what happened this week. After a "sell" signal that looked pretty convincing bears couldn't not move SPX further down allowing bulls to re-claim the trend.  The whip-saw was pretty bad because I waited for bulls to close above the most recent high (1,530) to cover my shorts. The new "buy" signal was actually not that bad, around

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-81725101315218222822013-03-06T17:14:00.001-05:002013-03-06T17:14:23.112-05:00

What I was afraid it did happen, SPX closed above the previous high, 1,530. It looks like we have a whip-saw here, "sell" signal followed immediately buy a real "buy" signal. I don't think bears will turn the market in their favor from here since everything seems to go in bulls' favor, positive weekly and daily DMI, higher highs on both daily and weekly charts.  Time to give back

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-74071851874605493892013-03-01T16:57:00.001-05:002013-03-02T08:20:05.107-05:00

SPX didn't move too much overall but the week was extremely exciting. After a huge drop on Monday, that onset the "sell" signal, bulls recovered the lost ground and managed to finish the week 2 points above last Friday's close. This is the 4th week in a row with SPX finishing more or less at the same level but the last one was the choppiest of all.  This morning bears pushed SPX to

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-11166478145901572372013-02-27T19:29:00.001-05:002013-02-28T15:13:39.777-05:00

Once again I find it frustrating to make money on the short side. This is the third time in a row when market gives a "sell" signal just to rally immediately afterwards. Despite the two days rally little has changed at the technical level. We still have a bearish EMAs crossing and market is making lower highs and lower lows. Granted SPX moved above rising SMA 120 today. Let's look now at

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3063405776806739999.post-90057232320333578092013-02-26T08:12:00.003-05:002013-02-26T08:20:40.001-05:00

I've been challenged by a reader from Market Watch to demonstrate that my system works. I have demonstrated this almost three years ago when another sceptic said that the system doesn't actually work. Have a look at this article that goes back to the stock market in the 70's. Both sceptics said they back-tested my system and it was actually producing loses, not gains. I was puzzled since I was

babarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01478395157849388253noreply@blogger.com0