Wall Street Greek

Friday Chaos & Corporate Specific Drivers

2013-04-19T10:30:00.001-04:00

Chaos reigns in Boston as the FBI and Boston Police close in on the two brother terrorist suspects, with one now dead and another at large. The city has been shut down with residents told to stay home after a wild chase last evening included more bombs and possibly a suicide vest being exploded. One MIT security officer is dead today and the hunt is on and includes train stops out of the Boston area. Meanwhile, in the corporate world, GE’s CEO Jeff Immelt warned about weakness in Europe and set stocks lower today. The day followed the disappointing earnings of IBM last evening and another disappointment from McDonald’s this morning. As a result, the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) is lower by 3.2%, but the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is higher by 0.4%. Stocks are mixed because of the mixed earnings performance of individual corporations within the indexes.

Economic Events

Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein is speaking on liquidity regulation at the Richmond Fed’s Credit Markets Symposium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	9:50 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	CLOSE
EURO STOXX 50	+0.5%	NIKKEI 225	+0.7%
German DAX	-0.2%	Hang Seng	+2.3%
CAC 40	+0.9%	S&P/ASX 200	+0.2%
FTSE 100	+0.3%	Korean KOSPI	+0.4%
Greek ASE	+1.1%	BSE India SENSEX	+1.5%

G-20 finance ministers and central bankers will gather in Washington D.C. for the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank. The IMF will issue its World Economic Outlook.

Commodity Markets (9:50 AM ET)

WTI Crude	+0.3%
Brent Crude	+0.3%
RBOB Gasoline	+0.2%
NYMEX Natural Gas	-0.1%
Gold Spot	+0.8%
Silver Spot	+0.4%
COMEX Copper	-2.5%
CBOT Corn	+0.2%
CBOT Wheat	-0.2%
CBOT Soybeans	+0.2%
ICE Sugar	+0.6%
ICE Cocoa	+1.0%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	+1.0%
CME Live Cattle	-0.4%

Corporate Events

A troika of earnings reports monopolized the market wire last evening, with IBM (NYSE: IBM), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) each reporting results. McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) also reported this morning and is moving.

Security	Morning Move
IBM	-6.7%
GOOG	+2.7%
MSFT	+4.2%
MCD	-2.3%

General Electric (NYSE: GE) Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt’s comments about European weakness set U.S. shares lower today.

The Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) dropped out of the bidding for Dell (Nasdaq: DELL).

The FAA may be about to clear Boeing’s (NYSE: BA) Dreamliner aircraft to fly again.

The corporate wire has the earnings of General Electric (NYSE: GE), McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), Honeywell (NYSE: HON), Interpublic Group (NYSE: IPG), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Laboratory Corp. of America (NYSE: LH), State Street (NYSE: STT), 1st United Bancorp (Nasdaq: FUBC), Acme United (NYSE: ACU), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI), Briggs & Stratton (NYSE: BGG), First Horizon National (NYSE: FHN), First Niagara Financial (Nasdaq: FNFG), Genuine Parts (NYSE: GPC), Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Metrocorp Bancshares (Nasdaq: MCBI), MoSys (Nasdaq: MOSY), National Penn Bancshares (Nasdaq: NPBC), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI), Taylor Capital (Nasdaq: TAYC), TCF Financial (NYSE: TCB), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP) and Under Armour (NYSE: UA).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Recession Signal - This Consumer Data is Alarming

2013-04-18T12:43:00.000-04:00

By The Greek:

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index showed improvement today, but the abrupt change in the weekly measure is deceptive and perhaps simply influenced by pleasant weather in the population dense Northeast U.S. The index, while still deeply in negative territory, still reflects a troubled state of affairs. Furthermore, recent monthly measures of consumer sentiment have clearly shown cause for alarm, and for good reason.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index improved for the week ended April 14 to a mark of -29.2. The magnitude of the 4.8 point improvement was unusual, only seen about 1.8% of the time. The gain was the biggest seen since December 2011, and the absolute value of the index was the highest it has been in five years. But there was a divergence in the groups of Americans measured, with lower income Americans remaining depressed. Considering that the real unemployment rate could be as high as 11.9% and real underemployment could reach 17.8%, this is an important segment of the nation today, and bigger than the government estimates.

Because of the divergence in wealth segments, I suspect the improvement could simply be the result of warmer weather in the Northeast. Obviously, I cannot prove this, but the cherry blossoms are blooming on 81st Street outside my window, and a pleasant feel fills the air.

Three component measures of the index gained last week, and the Personal Finances measure actually moved above the waterline. The tragic state of affairs is apparent nonetheless in the fact that most of the measures remain in deeply negative territory, with the index range from +100 to -100.

Component	Level
Personal Finances	+1.6
Current View of Economy	-54.7
Good Time to Spend	-34.6

Further evidence of the way consumers really feel today was provided by the most recent monthly measures of consumer sentiment. The Thomson Reuters/ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, reported last Friday, showed the index fell to a nine-month low in April. The measure of the consumer mood fell 6.3 points, to 72.3, the lowest it has been since July 2012. It caught economists by surprise, with the consensus forecast set at 78.5, according to Reuters.

Not long before Reuters’ reported on it, the Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index for March dropped precipitously by 8.3 points to a mark of 59.7. Most of the decline was measured in expectations, which I have proposed in the past were raised after the U.S. government passed its debt ceiling and fiscal cliff tests. Those moves allowed stocks to rise in the first quarter, including consumer shares.

Security	Q1 2012
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+10.5%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+11.9%
PowerShares (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+6.1%
Consumer Discretionary SPDR (NYSE: XLY)	+12.0%
SPDR S&P Retail (NYSE: XRT)	+12.8%

However, the declines seen in the monthly measures of the consumer mood probably better reflect reality, considering hopes were built on expectations and not the views of consumers about the present situation. What’s weighing on them today was verified to me by the simple statement of a simple friend, a gentlemen maintenance worker at my church, who said, “I don’t like Obama anymore.” I asked Vangelis why and he responded, “Because my taxes went up.”

The expiration of the payroll tax break was a failing of the government with regard to the fiscal cliff, and is weighing today on an already stressed American consumer. Furthermore, those 7.7 million Americans we are not counting today as part of the labor force are not employed (including the retirees), except for possibly undocumented work doing things like dog walking and odd jobs for cash. Such means of making a living is not going to inspire them to shop much. This situation must result in lighter consumer spending, and therefore, a slower pace of GDP growth. Indeed, even the Federal Reserve said a 1.5 percentage point drag could be expected for GDP this year because of the Sequester Spending Cuts and the payroll tax break expiration. Yet the Fed failed to include its own admission in its forecast this past March. This means a surprise could be in store when GDP is reported.

Retail Sales, reported for March last Friday, showed sales excluding autos and gasoline fell by 0.1%. Major retailers are no longer reporting their monthly same-store sales, and even that is indicative of bad times. Public companies are all the more likely to share good news and to keep bad news quiet if they can. The trend of many now joining the major names like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) in refraining from such reporting could be an omen of a tough quarter ahead. The market share gains of discounters and bargain web retailers, like Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), Wal-Mart, Target (NYSE: TGT) and Costco (Nasdaq: COST) are indicative of the erasable era we live in. But what is troubling me most today is that these latest consumer mood measures show that how consumers really feel is alarming, and economic recession is all the more possible because of it.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Thursday – A Hopeful Trade

2013-04-18T09:34:00.002-04:00

The German Parliament approved the bailout of Cyprus, but the IMF’s Christine Lagarde has a press conference scheduled today that could change the mood in Europe. So far, European shares are recovering lost ground from recent trading shortfall. Asia was lower today, lagging by a day and still trading on yesterday’s news. In the States, a decent Jobless Claims Report and enthusiasm about forthcoming earnings has stocks looking higher. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is aiming higher fractionally in the early going. I’m afraid, though, this is a hopeful trade, because I expect earnings from Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and even Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) may disappoint today.

Economic Events

There is just one report due before the market open Thursday. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due for report at 8:30. Last week’s report covering the period ending April 6 showed weekly claims fell by 42K, to 346K. The four-week moving average for jobless claims rose 3K to 358K. Economists see claims at about the same level this week.

After stabilizing recently, Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index, a weekly measure of the consumer mood, edged up 0.1 points last week, reaching a mark of -34.0. However, consumers are not in a good mood, as was evidenced by the recent drops seen in the Conference Board and University of Michigan monthly measures.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Business Outlook Survey measures the regional manufacturing mood. The report for the month of April is expected to show index improvement to a mark of 3.3, up from 2.0 in March.

The Conference Board will publish its monthly Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index at 10:00 AM ET. Economists see this forward looking economic measure marking 0.2% improvement in March, which is a slower pace than February’s 0.5% increase.

Look for Fed speak Thursday from representatives Kocherlakota, Lacker and Bloom-Raskin.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	8:45 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	8:45 AM
EURO STOXX 50	+0.8%	NIKKEI 225	-1.2%
German DAX	+0.4%	Hang Seng	-0.3%
CAC 40	+0.8%	S&P/ASX 200	-1.6%
FTSE 100	+0.4%	Korean KOSPI	-1.2%
Greek ASE	+0.6%	BSE India SENSEX	+1.5%

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is holding a press conference Thursday.

Commodity Markets (8:40 AM ET)

WTI Crude	+1.3%
Brent Crude	+1.3%
RBOB Gasoline	+1.5%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+0.1%
Gold Spot	+1.4%
Silver Spot	+0.5%
COMEX Copper	-0.2%
CBOT Corn	-0.0%
CBOT Wheat	+0.8%
CBOT Soybeans	+0.7%
ICE Sugar	=0.0%
ICE Cocoa	+0.0%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	=0.0%
CME Live Cattle	+0.2%

The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending April 5 showed working gas in storage declined by 14 Bcf. Stocks were 804 Bcf less than last year at this time and 66 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of year.

Corporate Events

The corporate wire has the IPO of SeaWorld Entertainment, which will price 20 million shares between $24 and $27. Bankruptcy Court hosts Revel Resort and Casino, which is seeking a $40 million loan from J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM).

The EPS slate highlights presentations by Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG), Baxter International (NYSE: BAX), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF), Fifth Third Bancorp (Nasdaq: FITB), Amphenol (NYSE: APH), AutoNation (NYSE: AN), BB&T (NYSE: BBT), Blackstone (NYSE: BX), Cepheid (Nasdaq: CPHD), China Ming Yang Wind Power (NYSE: MY), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), Cytec (NYSE: CYT), Danaher (NYSE: DHR), E*TRADE (Nasdaq: ETFC), Fairchild Semiconductor (NYSE: FCS), Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM), KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY), LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Nucor (NYSE: NUE), Omnicom (NYSE: OMC), Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), Penn National Gaming (Nasdaq: PENN), People’s United Financial (Nasdaq: PBCT), Philip Morris (NYSE: PM), Pool Corp. (Nasdaq: POOL), Popular (Nasdaq: BPOP), PPG Industries (NYSE: PPG), Restoration Hardware (NYSE: RH), Seanergy Maritime (Nasdaq: SHIP), Sherwin Williams (NYSE: SHW), Sonoco (NYSE: SON), Travelzoo (Nasdaq: TZOO), Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP), UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH), Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and more.

Recent articles authored of interest:
Why Sell Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) on Any EPS Pop
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) Present an Extraordinary Opportunity

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Present an Extraordinary Opportunity

2013-04-17T12:39:00.000-04:00

Chart at Yahoo Finance

By The Greek:

The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) dropped precipitously recently. Early word on the Street was that the move may have been exacerbated by a confluence of trading algorithms pushing institutional capital out of the security en masse, or that an important owner had been selling (Cyprus was suggested). Also, a sort of death spiral may have developed, propelled by selling in the ETF, which then in turn is forced to sell the commodity; this could have accelerated the decline. However, unlike those who are now boisterously opposed to gold, I’m suggesting such a trading anomaly seems to have created a special arbitrage opportunity for a commodity that has serious safe haven characteristics working in its favor this year and next. This belief is behind my view that the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) should be bought now, because a better opportunity may not avail to leverage what should drive gold higher, and the GLD is an easy way to leverage it.

The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) started decidedly lower at the turn of the year, as enthusiasm for stocks intensified. I’ve often talked about the importance of Washington D.C. getting out of the way of stocks, and the passing of the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling issues marked important all-clear signals for equities. Unfortunately, the government’s allowance of the expiration of payroll tax breaks is having important economic repercussions today that will cost investors before long, in my estimation. Still, up until now, capital has been flowing heavily into equity funds and out of money market funds and safe haven securities like the SPDR Gold Shares Trust and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV).

The problem is that recently, economic warning signals have become too hard to ignore. Still, stocks have ignored them, though if one inspects which stocks have been rising it has been defensive names for the most part, especially dividend payers in the utility, consumer staple and healthcare arenas. I believe this is because portfolio managers have issue with putting money behind aggressive names given the real economic situation that exists today.

But capital flow fervor will not continue forever if the economic softness gets worse. I believe there’s a good probability of that happening, especially given the real impact of the Sequester spending cuts and the payroll tax break expiration, which the Fed estimates should have a 1.5 percentage point impact on economic growth this year. However, even the Fed left that adjustment out of its own forecast, increasing the possibility of a surprising GDP report or two this year. All these things support the safe haven, gold and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).

The events in Boston illustrated that gold is still a safe haven, because gold rallied Tuesday just like it did after September 11th, when equities collapsed. In the first two days of trading after 9/11, Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) (there was no GLD yet) rallied 7.1% while the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) fell 5.4%. The day after the Boston Marathon bombings, precious metals also rallied for the most part.

Security	April 16 Change
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)	+1.1%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	-0.7%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	+1.2%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+2.6%
ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSE: AGQ)	+4.2%

Given that North Korea, in my estimation, will very shortly run several missile tests and possibly test a nuclear device, gold’s safe haven appeal should be reinforced that much more. Furthermore, given that the United States and Israel believe Iran could have a nuclear weapon capability sometime around a year from now, give or take a few months; and given the world’s preference of military confrontation over a nuclear Iran, gold should find further support. Finally, given that the central banks of the world have been aggressively increasing money supply, and that their credibility could come under serious question, there is all the more reason for precious metals to regain their ancient currency appeal. Thus, I believe gold has very solid support long-term, and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) seems to present a special opportunity today to leverage gold on the security’s recent extraordinary collapse.

The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) fell 13% in two days on either the selling of a major owner or the confluence of algorithms pushing capital out of gold en masse, in my estimation. Given my expectations that gold will be reinforced as an important safe haven now, after Boston, and with a near-term nuclear or missile event possible in North Korea, and with the eventual confrontation of Iran; and while global central banks are placing their nations’ currencies in vulnerable position, I believe an extraordinary opportunity exists today in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Wednesday – IMF Warning Erases Hope

2013-04-17T10:22:00.002-04:00

In its Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF warned the world’s central banks to be careful of creative efforts to stimulate economic growth, which they warn could create asset bubbles and inflate corporate debt. The IMF put fear in the heart of investors who were already concerned that the support was not even enough to grow the world’s economies as is. Rumors of a German debt downgrade also impacted stocks overseas and are impacting stocks here at home today as well. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) is down 0.8% in the early going. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is higher by 1.3%, and we suggest readers see our recent write-up on the special opportunity in gold today: Remember Gold the Safe Haven?

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	9:33 AM	ASIA/PACIFIC	Close
EURO STOXX 50	-1.2%	NIKKEI 225	+1.2%
German DAX	-1.7%	Hang Seng	-0.5%
CAC 40	-1.4%	S&P/ASX 200	+1.1%
FTSE 100	-0.5%	Korean KOSPI	+0.1%
Greek ASE	+1.5%	BSE India SENSEX	-0.1%

The latest mortgage activity data arrives from the Mortgage Bankers Association Wednesday before the market open. Last week’s report covering the period ending April 5 showed mortgage applications increased by 4.5%. Applications tied to the purchases of homes decreased 1.0%, while the Refinance Index increased by 6.0%. Interest rates fell in the period, but this data is often not perfectly reflective of the business environment around holidays. In this case, Easter and Passover added noise.

The Federal Reserve issues its Beige Book of regional economic activity at 2:00 PM ET. Several Fed speakers are on the board for Wednesday, with public appearances by Jeremy Stein, James Bullard and Eric Rosengren scheduled.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to release its Global Financial Stability report on systemic risks today.

Commodity Markets (9:40 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-1.2%
Brent Crude	-1.1%
RBOB Gasoline	-1.3%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+0.9%
Gold Spot	+1.2%
Silver Spot	-0.1%
COMEX Copper	-3.1%
CBOT Corn	+0.3%
CBOT Wheat	-0.4%
CBOT Soybeans	+0.2%
ICE Sugar	-0.2%
ICE Cocoa	+0.6%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	+0.4%
CME Live Cattle	0.0%

Look for the EIA’s regular Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the week ending April 5 showed crude oil inventory increased by 0.3 million barrels, and remained well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventory increased by 1.7 million barrels and are at the upper limit of the average range.

Corporate Events

In corporate news, there is an investor day event scheduled at The Gap (NYSE: GPS). Carnival (NYSE: CCL) is having its annual shareholder meeting. In Bankruptcy Court, you’ll find Pinnacle Airlines (OTC: PNCLQ.PK) and Kodak (OTC: EKDKQ.PK). Intelsat is pricing 21.7 million shares at $21 to $25 a share today. Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) is splitting its shares 4-for-1.

The EPS schedule highlights reports from American Express (NYSE: AXP), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK), Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX), St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Crown Holdings (NYSE: CCK), Dover (NYSE: DOV), East West Bancorp (Nasdaq: EWBC), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), Huntington Bancshares (Nasdaq: HBAN), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP), Mattel (NYSE: MAT), Noble (NYSE: NE), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PNC Financial (NYSE: PNC), SLM Corp. (NYSE: SLM), Textron (NYSE: TXT), The9 Ltd. (Nasdaq: NCTY), Wintrust Financial (Nasdaq: WTFC) and Zhone Technologies (Nasdaq: ZHNE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Remember Gold the Safe Haven?

2013-04-16T11:12:00.001-04:00

After selling off the shiny metal and its once sexy ETF peripherals, gold is getting a bid today on the regrettable reminder that it is the safe haven standard for mankind. Before Boston, investors could not get out of their own way fast enough to dump gold, silver and everything shiny. Today, with the New York City police street presence upped by 1,000 officers, Wall Street is getting its reminder first hand and spot gold is higher by 2.4% as of 10:55 AM ET.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Gold Safe Haven

The events that transpired in Boston disrupted the iconic event and our peace of mind. They were likewise disruptive to the suddenly popular trade to sell gold, silver and all precious metals and their ETF peripheral securities. Gold was falling off a cliff before the bombs exploded, but investors remembered why and when mankind seeks its historic trading tool in the unfortunate aftermath. It’s a tragic day, but the previous decline in gold now offers investors an opportunity to take a stake that should prove highly profitable in my opinion.

The reason why the gold short trade got hot is debatable, especially considering the nascent economic trend pointing toward global demise. The last remaining fuel for hope, China growth, was debatable, and we debunked some of it for you over recent days. The fuel was proven impotent yesterday, with weak data emerging out of China. Furthermore, I recently showed that the real unemployment rate is likely closer to 11.9% than 7.6%, and underemployment is probably 17.8%, not 13.8%, by my estimation. The economy is deteriorating, which should be supportive of gold demand.

I heard an interesting perspective this morning, in which a talking head discussed the troika’s push to Cyprus, demanding it sell its gold reserves to pay itself out of crisis. It would not have drawn enough cash to compensate Cyprus’ creditors, but it reportedly put fear in the heart of gold bugs. You can see some of that here in the performance of relative ETF securities and a couple major miners.

Security	Year-to-Date to April 15
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)	-19%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-25%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	-37%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	-19%
ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSE: AGQ)	-46%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-24%
Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM)	-26%

The latest terrorist event in Boston was unexpected, and shocked the market and the precious metals. However, other threats hover over securities and support gold and relatives here as well. Pressing the geopolitical scene today is the near daily threats of nuclear war by North Korea, and the expectation that the chaotic communist state could launch a missile and test the resolve of its neighbors or test a nuclear weapon. We have become a bit desensitized to the threats of North Korea, with an understanding established now that the nation’s threats are merely its means of demanding international aid for its starving population. However, with Chinese troops building up at the border and South Korea and Japan preparing anti-missile batteries with U.S. anti-missile destroyers lurking in the nearby sea, the threat of a miscue mounts. The Korean Peninsula is just one heating hot spot.

Iran is also warming. The President of the United States and his counterpart in Israel have publicly stated that the long dreaded Iranian nuclear weapon capability deadline is probably about one year away now. Leaders have also continuously noted that engagement of Iran is a better bad option than a nuclear Iran. So then how long will it be before chaos reigns and the sound of war drums is replaced by the whistles of war missiles? Obviously, it will not be much longer. When that day arrives, will not dollar demand be replaced by gold?

Chart at Yahoo Finance

So, there are enough reasons to seek safe haven. Boston only served as a reminder of them all. With gold having capitulated, as you can see in the late drop-off in the GLD chart here, we likely have a special opportunity to take stakes.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Tuesday – A Different Investment Perspective on the Day After

2013-04-16T08:51:00.001-04:00

A day after the tragic events that unfolded at the Boston Marathon, the perspective has changed completely. Up until the moment of the explosions, capital was rushing into the dollar and dollar equivalents and suddenly out of stocks on failing economic data. Capital was also strangely moving out of gold and precious metal relatives like the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV). However, today, we see stocks shaky especially in nations where terrorism would seem more likely – for instance in the U.K., Japan and Greece. Gold has found a bid as well, and is up sharply in the spot market today. The market remembers now why it ever coveted the safe haven security. With no follow up event occurring yesterday or so far this morning, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is indicating a higher open for stocks, up 0.7% premarket.

Economic Events

Housing Starts will be reported at 8:30 AM ET. This report covers new residential construction starts and also offers information on new permit issuance for construction. In this report for March, economists expect the annual pace of housing starts increased to 930K, from 917K in February. The economists’ consensus for permit issuance stands at 942K, which would be down from the prior month’s pace of 946K.

Following the recent reporting of the PPI, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due today at 8:30 AM ET. Economists see this measure of inflation unchanged for March. However, when excluding volatile food and energy prices, the Core CPI is expected to have grown at a 0.2% pace, matching the pace of the prior month.

Keeping with consumer info, look for the weekly retail same-store sales data in the premarket as well. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed a week-to-week sales increase of 0.7%, versus the 4.7% increase the week before. On a year-to-year basis, sales were higher by 2.1%, versus the 1.9% increase in the prior week. This data was still skewed by Easter and Passover and should be discounted as such.

Industrial Production will be reported at 9:15 AM ET. The economists’ consensus sees industrial production higher by 0.2% in March, versus the 0.7% increase in February. Capacity Utilization is seen moderating to 78.3% in March, versus the 79.6% usage rate in February. Data has been softening in manufacturing, and this report could confirm that. Manufacturing production is seen increasing by just 0.1%, versus the 0.8% increase the month before.

Several Fed speakers are on the board for Tuesday, with Vice Chair Janet Yellen, Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke, New York Fed President William Dudley and Minneapolis Fed Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota all scheduled to speak in the afternoon.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	8:05 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	Close
EURO STOXX 50	-0.1%	NIKKEI 225	-0.4%
German DAX	-0.0%	Hang Seng	-0.5%
CAC 40	-0.1%	S&P/ASX 200	-0.3%
FTSE 100	-0.2%	Korean KOSPI	+0.1%
Greek ASE	-2.1%	BSE India SENSEX	+2.1%

Overseas, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is taking part in a debate on bank capital requirements and bonus compensation.

Commodity Markets (7:50 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-0.2%
Brent Crude	-0.7%
RBOB Gasoline	-0.0%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+0.3%
Gold Spot	+3.8%
Silver Spot	+4.9%
COMEX Copper	0.0%
CBOT Corn	-0.2%
CBOT Wheat	-0.4%
CBOT Soybeans	+0.7%
ICE Sugar	+1.0%
ICE Cocoa	+1.4%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	-1.2%
CME Live Cattle	+0.3%

Corporate Events

The House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing to discuss whether Dodd-Frank gives the government the right to break up financial institutions. The SEC is having a round table on how to make fixed income markets more transparent.

In corporate news, look for the annual shareholder meeting of Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK). The IPAA OGIS New York Conference brings presentation by Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) and Range Resources (NYSE: RRC). Look for earnings news from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), Comerica (NYSE: CMA), CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) and W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), United Rentals (NYSE: URI), Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) and others.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Week Ahead – Earnings Season is Here

2013-04-15T14:46:00.002-04:00

The week ahead highlights the real start of corporate earnings season, after the official start last week on Alcoa’s (NYSE: AA) release. This week’s big names include the major investment banks like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, plus news from major corporate leaders Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), McDonald’s and others. The entire economic schedule and more follows.

Monday

Chinese economic data will again play an important role for American stocks this week, after last week’s import data sent stocks celebrating. On Monday, China will publish GDP and retail sales data. I wonder if it’s not up to par, whether the market will reevaluate the gains it booked last week. We debunked the import data for you last week.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda talks about the economy Monday.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey will be reported at 8:30 AM ET. The General Business Conditions Index has shown regional manufacturing expansion over recent months’. This month, economists see the index slipping slightly to 7.5, from 9.24.

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) Report for February reaches the wire at 9:00 AM ET. This report sheds light on foreign demand for long-term U.S. securities and helps to color the picture regarding the sanctity of the dollar, which I believe is a false faith.

The National Association of Homebuilders’ (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is due at 10:00 AM ET. This measure of the mood of homebuilders can be skewed by its inclusion of great numbers of smaller independent builders. In today’s market, where the large well-capitalized publicly traded builders have gobbled up market share from bankrupt and troubled smaller players, two very separate sets of opinions exist about the market. Economists are looking for a slight improvement in the HMI in April, to 45, from 44 in March. Readings above 50 indicate a mostly positive perspective of the housing market, and so you can see the issue for smaller builders has a voice here.

April 15 marks the deadline for Americans to file their taxes for 2012.

In corporate news, banks and credit card companies report master trust data for March. The IPAA OGIS New York Conference brings presentations by Approach Resources (Nasdaq: AREX) and Concho Resources (NYSE: CXO). Thermo Fisher Scientific (NYSE: TMO) is having a conference call to discuss its definitive agreement to acquire Life Technologies Corp. (Nasdaq: LIFE). Acorda Therapeutics (Nasdaq: ACOR) is having a conference call to discuss study findings for AMPYRA tablets (dalfampridine). Look for earnings news from Citigroup (NYSE: C), M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB), Concur Technologies (Nasdaq: CNQR), First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC), Webster Financial (NYSE: WBS) and many more.

Tuesday

Housing Starts will be reported at 8:30 AM ET. This report covers new residential construction starts and also offers information on new permit issuance for construction. In this report for March, economists expect the annual pace of housing starts increased to 930K, from 917K in February. The economists’ consensus for permit issuance stands at 942K, which would be down from the prior month’s pace of 946K.

Following the recent reporting of the PPI, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due today at 8:30 AM ET. Economists see this measure of inflation unchanged for March. However, when excluding volatile food and energy prices, the Core CPI is expected to have grown at a 0.2% pace, matching the pace of the prior month.

Keeping with consumer info, look for the weekly retail same-store sales data in the premarket as well. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed a week-to-week sales increase of 0.7%, versus the 4.7% increase the week before. On a year-to-year basis, sales were higher by 2.1%, versus the 1.9% increase in the prior week. This data was still skewed by Easter and Passover and should be discounted as such.

Industrial Production will be reported at 9:15 AM ET. The economists’ consensus sees industrial production higher by 0.2% in March, versus the 0.7% increase in February. Capacity Utilization is seen moderating to 78.3% in March, versus the 79.6% usage rate in February. Data has been softening in manufacturing, and this report could confirm that. Manufacturing production is seen increasing by just 0.1%, versus the 0.8% increase the month before.

Several Fed speakers are on the board for Tuesday, with Vice Chair Janet Yellen, Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke, New York Fed President William Dudley and Minneapolis Fed Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota all scheduled to speak in the afternoon.

Overseas, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is taking part in a debate on bank capital requirements and bonus compensation.

The House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing to discuss whether Dodd-Frank gives the government the right to break up financial institutions. The SEC is having a round table on how to make fixed income markets more transparent.

In corporate news, look for the annual shareholder meeting of Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK). The IPAA OGIS New York Conference brings presentation by Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN). Look for earnings news from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), Comerica (NYSE: CMA), CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) and W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW).

Wednesday

The latest mortgage activity data arrives from the Mortgage Bankers Association Wednesday before the market open. Last week’s report covering the period ending April 5 showed mortgage applications increased by 4.5%. Applications tied to the purchases of homes decreased 1.0%, while the Refinance Index increased by 6.0%. Interest rates fell in the period, but this data is often not perfectly reflective of the business environment around holidays. In this case, Easter and Passover added noise.

The Federal Reserve issues its Beige Book of regional economic activity at 2:00 PM ET. Several Fed speakers are on the board for Wednesday, with public appearances by Jeremy Stein, James Bullard and Eric Rosengren scheduled.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to release its Global Financial Stability report on systemic risks today.

Look for the EIA’s regular Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the week ending April 5 showed crude oil inventory increased by 0.3 million barrels, and remained well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventory increased by 1.7 million barrels and are at the upper limit of the average range.

In corporate news, there is an investor day event scheduled at The Gap (NYSE: GPS). In Bankruptcy Court, you’ll find Pinnacle Airlines (OTC: PNCLQ.PK) and Kodak (OTC: EKDKQ.PK). Intelsat is pricing 21.7 million shares at $21 to $25 a share today. Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) is splitting its shares 4-for-1. The EPS schedule highlights reports from American Express (NYSE: AXP), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK), Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX) and St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ).

Thursday

There is just one report due before the market open Thursday. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due for report at 8:30. Last week’s report covering the period ending April 6 showed weekly claims fell by 42K, to 346K. The four-week moving average for jobless claims rose 3K to 358K. Economists see claims at about the same level this week.

After stabilizing recently, Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index, a weekly measure of the consumer mood, edged up 0.1 points last week, reaching a mark of -34.0. However, consumers are not in a good mood, as was evidenced by the recent drops seen in the Conference Board and University of Michigan monthly measures.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Business Outlook Survey measures the regional manufacturing mood. The report for the month of April is expected to show index improvement to a mark of 3.3, up from 2.0 in March.

The Conference Board will publish its monthly Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index at 10:00 AM ET. Economists see this forward looking economic measure marking 0.2% improvement in March, which is a slower pace than February’s 0.5% increase.

Look for Fed speak Thursday from representatives Kocherlakota, Lacker and Bloom-Raskin. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is holding a press conference Thursday.

The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending April 5 showed working gas in storage declined by 14 Bcf. Stocks were 804 Bcf less than last year at this time and 66 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of year.

The corporate wire has the IPO of SeaWorld Entertainment, which will price 20 million shares between $24 and $27. Bankruptcy Court hosts Revel Resort and Casino, which is seeking a $40 million loan from J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). The EPS slate highlights presentations by Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG), Baxter International (NYSE: BAX), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) and Fifth Third Bancorp (Nasdaq: FITB).

Friday

G-20 finance ministers and central bankers will gather in Washington D.C. for the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank. The IMF will issue its World Economic Outlook. Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein is speaking at a symposium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The corporate wire has the earnings of McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), Honeywell (NYSE: HON), Interpublic Group (NYSE: IPG), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Laboratory Corp. of America (NYSE: LH) and State Street (NYSE: STT).

You might also enjoy some of our recent work including:

The Real Unemployment Rate & Its Economic Implications
H7N9 Bird Flu Strain Could Impact McDonald’s

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Global Ruination Friday on Economic Data

2013-04-12T13:18:00.004-04:00

A terrible tandem of economic data points dissed stocks on Friday. The Retail Sales data for March and the Reuters/ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index ruined the mood from the get-go. Heading into the 1:00 PM ET hour, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) was down 0.5%. Stocks were ruined globally, with the iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV) down 0.3% and the iShares MSCI All Country Asia Ex-Japan (Nasdaq: AAJX) down 1.5%. Gold was being trashed along with stocks as investors went to cash; the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE: GLD) was off 3.6% at 1:00 PM.

Economic Data

The monthly Retail Sales Report for March showed retail sales fell 0.4%, which was against economists’ expectations for retail sales to stay flat against February levels. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales fell 0.1% against expectations for an increase of 0.3%.

The Thomson Reuters/ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell precipitously to a mark of 72.3, from 78.6 at previous check. Economists did not see this coming, with the consensus expectation set at 79.0. This report comes a week after the Conference Board report showing a significant similar drop-off in the consumer mood.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.6% in March against economists’ expectations for a lesser decrease of 0.2%. The Core PPI, less food and energy influence, still rose 0.2%, in line with expectations for the same.

Business Inventories increased 0.1% in February, against economists’ expectations for a 0.4% increase and following their 0.9% revised increase in January. Business sales were up 1.2% in February, which is good news relative to inventories, unless the inventory data is based on better insight by business managers. The inventory-to-sales ratio improved slightly to 1.28 in February, but that was still higher than the prior year period mark of 1.26.

Fed Chairman Bernanke gives a noontime speech in Washington D.C.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	11:30 AM	ASIA/PACIFIC	Close
EURO STOXX 50	-1.5%	NIKKEI 225	-0.5%
German DAX	-1.6%	Hang Seng	-0.1%
CAC 40	-1.2%	S&P/ASX 200	+0.1%
FTSE 100	-0.5%	Korean KOSPI	-1.3%
Greek ASE	-0.0%	BSE India SENSEX	-1.6%

E.U. finance ministers are meeting in Dublin.

Corporate Events

The corporate wire has the earnings of J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). Also find news from CAMAC Energy (NYSE: CAK) and China Sunergy (Nasdaq: CSUN). Forest Oil (NYSE: FST) is giving an update on its Eagle Ford Shale Development Program. Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) cut the price of its bagged coffee in order to better compete against other sellers. In other coffee news, Reckitt Benckiser Group (OTC: RBGLY.PK) is buying D.E. Master Blenders (OTC: DEMBF.PK). LinkedIn (Nasdaq: LNKD) purchased the news reader app Pulse. Rally Software (Nasdaq: RALY) is rallying, up sharply today after offering shares in its IPO.

Commodity Markets (12:00 PM ET)

WTI Crude	-2.9%
Brent Crude	-2.1%
RBOB Gasoline	-1.3%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+2.1%
Gold Spot	-3.5%
Silver Spot	-4.3%
COMEX Copper	-2.6%
CBOT Corn	+1.0%
CBOT Wheat	+2.1%
CBOT Soybeans	+0.6%
ICE Sugar	+0.6%
ICE Cocoa	+1.1%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	+0.6%
CME Live Cattle	+0.0%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Chinese Data that Lifted Stocks has Gaping Holes

2013-04-11T15:51:00.001-04:00

By The Greek:

China reported its March imports increased by 14.1%. Smart money has been hopeful of a middle class growth explosion in China since Nixon opened the door. On the surface, the day’s data seemed to offer some evidence of burgeoning domestic demand for goods and services from hopefully a fast growing Chinese middle class. When it finally happens, China bulls hope it will be a rising tide to lift all ships.

Security	04/10/13 Change
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+1.2%
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Ave. (NYSE: DIA)	+0.9%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+2.0%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+1.8%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-1.7%
SPDR S&P China (NYSE: GXC)	+0.9%

Unfortunately, there are some holes in the report. First of all, I think most of us can agree that we can never really trust any data that comes out of China. Also, oftentimes temporary issues like pricing, weather or holidays play roles in lifting a number. It happens all the time in monthly economic data in the U.S., so why not in China? In actuality, two out of the three listed factors here did play a role in making the report seem more bullish than it was.

In fact, closer inspection of the Chinese trade data shows that it likely benefited from following the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which created some pent-up demand. Higher pricing in crude oil imports certainly lifted the figure as well, given that barrels imported hardly changed while imports were reported up 10.9%.

Strong imports of iron ore were reportedly lifted simply by comparison with a very weak prior month level of imports. For the quarter, iron ore imports were actually about flat against last year. A similar story exists to explain the strong copper import growth in March.

And oh by the way, Chinese export growth, which measures demand from the U.S., Europe and the rest of Asia slowed in March. Obviously, we got a little ahead of ourselves on Wednesday, but with capital continuing to flow into equity funds, what are full pockets to do but find good news where only moderately positive data may exist. The economic situation remains at issue both in the U.S. and abroad, as evidenced by data point after data point. At times, markets and economies diverge, and one is not always a perfect predictor of the other. Even those who argue the market’s case do so based on better economic expectations. However, I think we can all agree that the current situation is still far from adequate.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Thursday’s News – PC Shipments Sinking NASDAQ Names

2013-04-11T09:32:00.001-04:00

Futures are a mixed bag Thursday morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average indicating higher while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are about to mark lower ground. Downgrades of Microsoft and other PC players are weighing on the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), after PC shipments were reported significantly lower for the first quarter.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	8:45 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	8:45 AM
EURO STOXX 50	Unchanged	NIKKEI 225	+2.0%
German DAX	+0.3%	Hang Seng	+0.3%
CAC 40	+0.4%	S&P/ASX 200	+0.8%
FTSE 100	+0.2%	Korean KOSPI	+0.7%
Greek ASE	+1.2%	BSE India SENSEX	+0.7%

China reported its foreign exchange reserves rose by $128 billion to $3.44 trillion in the first quarter. The increase was the largest since Q2 2011, indicating renewed investor interest in China. The influx of capital has credit growing at a rapid pace, raising concern at one rating agency, Fitch, which cut China’s credit rating this week.

Economic Reports

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due for report at 8:30. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 30 showed weekly claims spiked higher by 28K, rising to 385K. The four-week moving average for jobless claims rose 11,250 to 354,250. Last week I said another higher figure would raise investor concern, and it did. Economists see claims dropping to 365K this week.

Import and Export Price data will be released Thursday for the month of March. Economists expect export prices edged higher by 0.1%, after rising by 0.8% in February. Import prices are seen falling by 0.5% this month, versus the 1.1% increase seen last month. Large changes in export prices are usually due to agricultural exports while changes in import pricing are typically petroleum related.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index stabilized last week after declining over the two prior weeks. The weekly measure of the consumer mood edged up 0.3 points last week, reaching a mark of -34.1.

The SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee reviews target date funds. Also, look for Fed-speak from representatives Plosser and Bullard Thursday.

Commodity Markets (8:40 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-0.3%
Brent Crude	-0.1%
RBOB Gasoline	+0.3%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+0.3%
Gold Spot	Unchanged
Silver Spot	-0.2%
COMEX Copper	-0.3%
CBOT Corn	+0.9%
CBOT Wheat	+0.5%
CBOT Soybeans	+0.1%
ICE Sugar	-1.1%
ICE Cocoa	+0.9%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	-0.4%
CME Live Cattle	+0.3%

The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 29 showed working gas in storage declined by 94 Bcf. Stocks were 779 Bcf less than last year at this time and 37 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of year.

Corporate Events

The corporate wire has the chain store sales of individual retailers for the month of March. An increasing number of them are not reporting this data.

Look for shareholder and analyst meetings at NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA), The Hartford Financial Services Group (NYSE: HIG), H.B. Fuller (NYSE: FUL), Acadia Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ACAD) and Siemens (NYSE: SI). Look for an IPO from transaction processing firm Evertec. Residential Capital and Reader’s Digest are in bankruptcy court.

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) is bearing the weight of two downgrades today, after PC shipments plunged 13.9% year-over-year in the first quarter. Shares of Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) and others may also find pressure.

Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) is under pressure due to a sales slump in China on the latest bird flu strain H7N9.

The EPS slate highlights presentations by China Finance Online (Nasdaq: JRJC), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), J.B. Hunt (Nasdaq: JBHT), Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), Bank of Ozarks (Nasdaq: OZRK), Ceres (Nasdaq: CERE), Commerce Bankshares (Nasdaq: CBSH), Crumbs Bake Shop (Nasdaq: CRMB), Fuwei Films (Nasdaq: FFHL), GigaMedia (Nasdaq: GIGM), iGATE (Nasdaq: IGTE), Northern Technologies Int’l (Nasdaq: NTIC), SemiLEDs (Nasdaq: LEDS) and more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Wednesday’s Highlights – S&P Record Breaking Celebration on Burgeoning Chinese Imports

2013-04-10T11:38:00.000-04:00

By Staff Writer:

The S&P 500 Index broke into record territory Wednesday, supported by a report showing burgeoning imports in China. The world has been waiting for a growing Chinese middle class to spur demand for goods and services globally. Also, the Federal Reserve mistakenly sent copies of its meeting minutes a day early to some trade groups and to Congress, and so released them to the broader public premarket to avoid any further complications. The news offered nothing that was not already expected, though it did reflect an internal debate regarding when the Fed might pull back on its easing programs. The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: IVV) was up 1.0% at 11:00 AM ET, while the Fidelity NASDAQ Composite Index Tracking ETF (Nasdaq: ONEQ) was up 1.5%.

Economic Reports

The Federal Reserve published the minutes of its March meeting early today because they were leaked. The information sheds light on the intimacies of the discussion in-bank and is of utmost importance to equity investors. Nothing new was reported, but the info did reflect an internal debate on the Fed timeline to pull back its quantitative easing program.

Also, Minneapolis Fed Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota moderated a panel at the Atlanta Fed conference this morning. Dallas Fed Bank President Richard Fisher is speaking on the economy and monetary policy in Texas at 1:00 PM ET.

The Monthly Treasury Budget will be reported for the month of March at 2:00 PM ET. Economists expect the month to show a budget deficit of $172.4 billion, versus $203.5 billion reported in February. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for March has been $107.6 billion. It’s obvious why the President picked this particular day to send his budget plan for fiscal 2014 to Congress.

We also received the latest mortgage activity data from the Mortgage Bankers Association in the premarket Wednesday. The latest report covering the period ending April 5 showed the MBA’s Market Composite Index increased by 4.5%, versus last week’s decrease of 4.0%. Applications tied to the purchases of homes decreased 1.0% in the latest period, while the Refinance Index increased by 6.0%.

Commodity Markets (10:40 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-0.1%
Brent Crude	-0.5%
RBOB Gasoline	-2.1%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+3.5%
Gold Spot	-1.0%
Silver Spot	-1.1%
COMEX Copper	-0.8%
CBOT Corn	-0.5%
CBOT Wheat	-1.5%
CBOT Soybeans	Unchanged
ICE Sugar	+0.7%
ICE Cocoa	-0.4%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	+0.2%
CME Live Cattle	-0.3%

Look for the EIA’s regular Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the week ending March 29 showed crude oil inventory increased by 2.7 million barrels, and remained well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline decreased by 0.6 million barrels but remained in the middle of the average range.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	10:55 AM	ASIA/PACIFIC	10:55 AM
EURO STOXX 50	+2.6%	NIKKEI 225	+0.7%
German DAX	+2.1%	Hang Seng	+0.8%
CAC 40	+2.1%	S&P/ASX 200	-0.2%
FTSE 100	+1.3%	Korean KOSPI	+0.8%
Greek ASE	+3.0%	BSE India SENSEX	+1.0%

Chinese trade data showed a 14.1% jump in March imports, exciting the investment community about burgeoning domestic demand in China. It was twice the increase expected by economists. However, the pace of export growth slowed to 10% in March, likely reflecting difficulties in Europe. A separate report showed French industrial output rose 0.7% in February, beating economists’ expectations and making up for a decrease the month before.

G-8 foreign ministers start a two-day meeting in London Wednesday.

Corporate Events

In corporate news, shares of Taylor Morrison Home (Nasdaq: TMHC) soared after its IPO was oversubscribed. First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) offered optimistic guidance and its shares soared. There are analyst or investor days scheduled at Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP), American Water Works (NYSE: AWK) and Calpine (NYSE: CPN). The Telsey Advisory Group Spring Conference offers a presentation by Elizabeth Arden (Nasdaq: RDEN).

The EPS schedule highlights reports from Bed Bath & Beyond (Nasdaq: BBBY), Carmax (NYSE: KMX), Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ), Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST), Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO), Frisch’s Restaurants (NYSE: FRS), Titan Machinery (Nasdaq: TITN), ADTRAN (Nasdaq: ADTN), API Technologies (Nasdaq: ATNY), Apogee Enterprises (Nasdaq: APOG), China Hydroelectric (NYSE: CHC), Jinkosolar (NYSE: JKS), MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE: MSM), Richardson Electronics (Nasdaq: RELL) and Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Tuesday’s Market – Data Should Disturb Upon Digestion

2013-04-09T09:26:00.003-04:00

Stock futures were looking modestly higher just before 9:00 AM ET, but data out of the U.S. may cost us as it is digested. A survey of small businessmen turned decidedly downward in April and reflects poorly on the state of affairs on Main Street. Data from China showed moderate price change, indicating the nation’s central bank may not have to be too aggressive in efforts to contain inflation as the economy grows. However, closer inspection should lead to concern about the sustainability of the latest surge in China given weakness in Europe and nascent issues in the U.S. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: VOO) could give back yesterday's gains as the market is reminded of its latest issues.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	8:30 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	8:30 AM
EURO STOXX 50	+0.4%	NIKKEI 225	Unchanged
German DAX	+0.1%	Hang Seng	+0.7%
CAC 40	+0.3%	S&P/ASX 200	+1.5%
FTSE 100	+0.4%	Korean KOSPI	+0.1%
Greek ASE	+5.0%	BSE India SENSEX	-1.1%

China reported on March price change at the consumer and producer levels Tuesday. China’s Consumer Price Index increased 2.1% over the prior year period in March. It was less than was expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswire. It was also markedly lower than February’s 3.2% price increase. Services prices increased 3.1% and food prices rose 2.7%. The Producer Price Index fell 1.9%, roughly in line with economists’ views for a 2.0% decline and more than February’s drop of 1.6%. The mild price change poses a question about the strength of a nascent Chinese economic surge.

Economic Reports

The National Federation of Small Business (NFIB) reported its Small Business Optimism Index this morning. After three months of modest gains, the measure of business sentiment dropped 1.3 percentage points in April, to 89.5. The economists’ consensus expectation for April was for a slight deterioration to a mark of 90.6, from 90.8 previously. The absolute value of this measure reflects general discontent among small businessmen. Of the 10 index components, 6 declined, including labor market indicators, inventory investment plans and sales expectations. This looks to be yet another indicator of economic issue, among many now. Indeed, the economic message is getting harder to ignore.

The regular retail same-store sales data was released in the premarket as well. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed a week-to-week sales increase of just 0.7% in the reported period, against the 4.7% gain the week before. On a year-to-year basis, sales were higher by 2.1%, versus the 1.9% increase in the prior week. This data was impacted by Easter and should be discounted as such.

At 10:00 AM ET, look for the monthly Wholesale Trade Report. In this report for the month of February, economists are expecting just a 0.5% increase in wholesale inventories, against the 1.2% gain the month before. You’ll want to compare the month’s inventory growth to the change in sales for a more complete perspective.

Investors bothered by this month’s Employment Report will want to catch the latest JOLTS Survey Tuesday for news on job openings and labor turnover.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speaks Tuesday, giving an address he’s entitled, “Ending Too Big to Fail is Going to be Hard Work,” at the Global Society of Fellows meeting at the University of Richmond.

Commodity Markets (8:15 AM ET)

WTI Crude	+0.2%
Brent Crude	+0.6%
RBOB Gasoline	+0.9%
NYMEX Natural Gas	-0.3%
Gold Spot	+0.2%
Silver Spot	+0.4%
COMEX Copper	+1.1%
CBOT Corn	+0.5%
CBOT Wheat	-0.5%
CBOT Soybeans	-0.1%
ICE Sugar	-0.4%
ICE Cocoa	-0.1%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	+0.4%
CME Live Cattle	+0.1%

Corporate Events

J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) fired CEO Ron Johnson, a long overdue action after the man destroyed millions in market value with an aggressive and abrupt change to corporate strategy. The stock should recover from here if old strategies engaging customers with deal offers are immediately restored full force. We warned early that Johnson’s changes were Too Much Change Too Soon for J.C. Penney and we were right.

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) kicked off earnings season with its report last night. The stock is down 1.0% in the premarket even after beating Wall Street expectations. An aluminum glut is hurting pricing, and issues in Europe are costing the company against its U.S. plane and auto industry demand.

Look for investor and analyst days at First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), Agrium (NYSE: AGU) and Coronado Biosciences (Nasdaq: CNDO). The Telsey Advisory Group Spring Conference brings presentations by Alliance Data (NYSE: ADS), Guess (NYSE: GES), Penn National Gaming (Nasdaq: PENN) and Pandora Media (NYSE: P). Advanced Energy Industries (Nasdaq: AEIS) has set time for a special announcement. Infoblox (Nasdaq: BLOX) is having a customer conference call. Look for earnings news from SeaChange International (Nasdaq: SEAC), Zep (NYSE: ZEP), American DG Energy (Nasdaq: ADGE), Chinacache International (Nasdaq: CCIH), PriceSmart (Nasdaq: PSMT) and Synergy Resources (Nasdaq: SYRG). The IPO wire has major homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home and Knot Offshore Partners coming to market.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

This Week – Earnings May Weigh and Retail Sales May Wane

2013-04-08T16:03:00.000-04:00

This week, the start of earnings season will be well-noted, but after Alcoa and J.P. Morgan Chase, very few widely followed names will report. Earnings will start in earnest next week. This week, though, important news about consumers and retailers might hit the fan. The first quarter performance of the major indexes, evidenced by the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) gains of 10.5%, 11.9% and 6.1%, respectively, come into question as companies begin to report results and economic data softens.

Chart at Yahoo Finance

Monday

It’s the unofficial start to the corporate earnings season with the report of Alcoa (NYSE: AA) at the close. Also reporting today, A. Schulman (Nasdaq: SHLM), VisionChina Media (Nasdaq: VISN), Healthcare Services Group (Nasdaq: HCSG) and AZZ Incorporated (NYSE: AZZ). Dot Hill Systems (Nasdaq: HILL) is holding a meeting for analysts. Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) is announcing the appointment of Francis Cuss as its new Executive Vice President and Chief Scientific Officer.

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is giving the keynote speech at the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s financial markets conference, this year entitled, “Maintaining Financial Stability: Holding a Tiger by the Tail.”

The Investor Movement Index (IMX) is released around noontime. The IMX is a behavior based index created by TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD) to provide insight into investor sentiment on Main Street. It varies in this regard from the State Street (NYSE: STT) Investor Sentiment Index, which measures institutional investors.

The Masters Golf Tournament tees off in Augusta, Georgia.

Tuesday

In the early going, the National Federation of Small Business (NFIB) will report its Small Business Optimism Index. Last month’s report for March showed very little improvement in confidence to a still deeply inadequate level. The economists’ consensus expectation for April is for a slight deterioration to a mark of 90.6, from 90.8 previously.

Look for the regular retail same-store sales data in the premarket as well. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed a week-to-week sales increase of 4.7%, versus the 1.7% decline the week before. On a year-to-year basis, sales were higher by 1.9%, versus the 1.0% increase in the prior week. This data was impacted by Easter and should be discounted as such.

At 10:00 AM ET, look for the monthly Wholesale Trade Report. In this report for the month of February, economists are expecting just a 0.5% increase in wholesale inventories, against the 1.2% gain the month before. You’ll want to compare the month’s inventory growth to the change in sales for a more complete perspective.

China reports on March price change at the consumer and producer levels Tuesday.

Investors bothered by this month’s Employment Report will want to catch the latest JOLTS Survey Tuesday for news on job openings and labor turnover.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speaks Tuesday, giving an address he’s entitled, “Ending Too Big to Fail is Going to be Hard Work,” at the Global Society of Fellows meeting at the University of Richmond.

In corporate news, look for investor and analyst days at First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), Agrium (NYSE: AGU) and Coronado Biosciences (Nasdaq: CNDO). The Telsey Advisory Group Spring Conference brings presentations by Alliance Data (NYSE: ADS), Guess (NYSE: GES) and Pandora Media (NYSE: P). Infoblox (Nasdaq: BLOX) is having a customer conference call. Look for earnings news from SeaChange International (Nasdaq: SEAC), Zep (NYSE: ZEP) and American DG Energy (Nasdaq: ADGE). The IPO wire has Taylor Morrison Home and Knot Offshore Partners.

Wednesday

The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its March meeting, shedding more light on the intimacies of the discussion in-bank. This could be a market moving event, because what it sheds light on is of utmost importance to equity investors. Also, look for Minneapolis Fed Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota as he moderates a panel at the Atlanta Fed conference at 8:30 AM. Dallas Fed Bank President Richard Fisher speaks on the economy and monetary policy in Texas at 1:00 PM ET.

We will also get the latest mortgage activity data from the Mortgage Bankers Association in the premarket Wednesday. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 29 showed mortgage applications decreased by 4.0%. Applications tied to the purchases of homes increased slightly, while the Refinance Index declined by 6.0%. Interest rates decreased slightly in the period, but it was just ahead of Passover and Easter, when this business slows down.

Look for the EIA’s regular Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the week ending March 29 showed crude oil inventory increased by 2.7 million barrels, and remained well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline decreased by 0.6 million barrels but remained in the middle of the average range.

The Monthly Treasury Budget will be reported for the month of March at 2:00 PM ET. Economists expect the month to offer a budget deficit of $172.4 billion, versus $203.5 billion reported in February. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for March has been $107.6 billion. It’s obvious why the President is picking this particular day to send his budget plan for fiscal 2014 to Congress. It will be interesting to see what it offers.

G-8 foreign ministers start a two-day meeting in London Wednesday.

In corporate news, there are analyst or investor days scheduled at Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) and Calpine (NYSE: CPN). The Telsey Advisory Group Spring Conference offers a presentation by Elizabeth Arden (Nasdaq: RDEN). The EPS schedule highlights reports from Bed Bath & Beyond (Nasdaq: BBBY), Carmax (NYSE: KMX), Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ), Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST), Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) and Titan Machinery (Nasdaq: TITN).

Thursday

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due for report at 8:30. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 30 showed weekly claims spiked higher by 28K, rising to 385K. The four-week moving average for jobless claims rose 11,250 to 354,250. Last week I said another higher figure would raise investor concern, and it did. Economists see claims dropping to 365K this week.

Import and Export Price data will be released Thursday for the month of March. Economists expect export prices edged higher by 0.1%, after rising by 0.8% in February. Import prices are seen falling by 0.5% this month, versus the 1.1% increase seen last month. Large changes in export prices are usually due to agricultural exports while changes in import pricing are typically petroleum related.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index stabilized last week after declining over the two prior weeks. The weekly measure of the consumer mood edged up 0.3 points last week, reaching a mark of -34.1.

The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 29 showed working gas in storage declined by 94 Bcf. Stocks were 779 Bcf less than last year at this time and 37 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of year.

The SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee reviews target date funds. Also, look for Fed-speak from representatives Plosser and Bullard Thursday.

The corporate wire has the chain store sales of individual retailers for the month of March. An increasing number of them are not reporting this data. Look for shareholder and analyst meetings at NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA), The Hartford Financial Services Group (NYSE: HIG) and Siemens (NYSE: SI). Look for an IPO from transaction processing firm Evertec. Residential Capital and Reader’s Digest are in bankruptcy court. The EPS slate highlights presentations by China Finance Online (Nasdaq: JRJC), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), J.B. Hunt (Nasdaq: JBHT), Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) and more.

Friday

The monthly Retail Sales Report for March is due at 8:30 AM ET. Economists expect retail sales to stay flat against February levels. In February, sales rose 1.1%. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales are expected to have increased by 0.3%, versus the 0.4% increase in February.

The Thomson Reuters/ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to have improved to 79.0, from 78.6. This 10:00 AM report comes a week after the Conference Board report showing a significant drop-off in the consumer mood.

Just a day after the import and export price release, we’ll receive insight into producer level pricing. The Producer Price Index (PPI), due at 8:30 AM, is expected to show a March decrease of 0.2%. The Core PPI, less food and energy influence, is expected to show a 0.2% increase, matching the prior month increase.

Business Inventories will be reported for February at 10:00 AM ET. Economists see inventories rising 0.4%, following their 1.0% increase in January. Investors will need to take a closer look at the report for insight into sales activity as well.

Fed Chairman Bernanke gives a noontime speech in Washington D.C.

E.U. finance ministers are meeting in Dublin.

The corporate wire has the earnings of J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). Also find news from CAMAC Energy (NYSE: CAK), China Sunergy (Nasdaq: CSUN) and a few more.

You might also enjoy some of our recent work including, Ignore the Economic Message at Your Own Risk and Gold: A Fresh Rally Begins Today.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Friday – Market Collapsing on Disastrous Jobs Number

2013-04-05T09:27:00.002-04:00

By Ed Gaynor:

The market is heading decidedly lower with the SDPR S&P 500 (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) each looking to move down at least 1.0% on the open. The reason is yet another disappointing economic data point, with the Nonfarm Payroll data showing the creation of just 88K jobs in March, decidedly short of economists’ expectations. Have you been reading Wall Street Greek and our columns elsewhere? If you had, you would not be surprised today and you would have been selling the market since the close of March or earlier.

Economic Reports
The Employment Situation Report reached the wire at 8:30 AM ET. The report for March was expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 193K, less than February’s 236K. However, Nonfarm Payrolls were reported at just +88K. Private nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by just 200K this month, versus the 246K increase last month. However, Private Nonfarm Payrolls actually only increased by 95K. The unemployment rate was expected to hold steady at 7.7% according to economists, but it actually improved to 7.6%! Fear not dear readers, as you have not lost your minds. It does not make sense, and we’ll clear it up for you in a forthcoming article. Last month, we saw it closer to 11.8%, and it shouldn’t be improved this month.

Look for the International Trade data at 8:30 AM as well. Economists expect February’s trade gap widened to $44.8 billion from $44.4 billion in January. Exports declined last month versus an increase in import demand.

The Federal Reserve reports on Consumer Credit at 3:00 PM ET. Economists see February’s consumer credit expanding by $15 billion, against January’s expansion of $16.2 billion.

Corporate Events
The corporate wire has the BioCentury Publications Future Leaders in Biotech Industry Conference, with highlighted presentations from Alexza Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ALXA), Cytokinetics (Nasdaq: CYTK), Cytori Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CYTX), Omeros (Nasdaq: OMER), Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SCMP) and Navidea Biopharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: NAVB). Radware (Nasdaq: RDWR) is reporting earnings today.

Early Movers include Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), F5 Networks (Nasdaq: FFIV), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV), UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), Hanesbrands (NYSE: HBI), WD-40 (Nasdaq: WDFC), Exide Technologies (Nasdaq: XIDE), Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) and Rosetta Stone (NYSE: RST).

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	8:40 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	8:40 AM
EURO STOXX 50	-1.7%	NIKKEI 225	+1.6%
German DAX	-2.0%	Hang Seng	-2.7%
CAC 40	-2.0%	S&P/ASX 200	-0.5%
FTSE 100	-1.7%	Korean KOSPI	-1.6%
Greek ASE	-1.0%	BSE India SENSEX	-0.3%

German industrial orders rose more than expected in February, up 2.3%. Japan bonds swung wildly today as stocks charged higher in Japan for the second straight day after the Bank of Japan’s bold easing program announcement. Demand for Japan sent Europe lower.

Commodity Markets (8:40 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-1.0%
Brent Crude	-1.1%
RBOB Gasoline	-0.6%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+0.8%
Gold Spot	+0.6%
Silver Spot	+0.1%
COMEX Copper	-0.5%
CBOT Corn	+0.1%
CBOT Wheat	-0.4%
CBOT Soybeans	-1.1%
ICE Sugar	-0.1%
ICE Cocoa	-0.4%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	+1.4%
CME Live Cattle	+0.1%

Ignore the Economic Message at Your Own Risk

2013-04-04T12:08:00.001-04:00

By The Greek:

Over the course of the last several weeks and months I’ve been noting and reporting on a changing economic message. I brought attention to how the Federal Reserve and the market have ignored that message. But, the economic message is getting harder to ignore. Today, two more data points further pounded in the message that the economy is not as healthy as the Fed, the White House and the market would have you believe.

Over recent weeks, I said we might even be ignoring the signs of a coming recession, given Europe’s linchpin Germany has fallen into it; jobless claims in the U.S. were on the rise; and the latest GDP data was not sizing up to par. Before that I noted that the severe drop-off of consumer sentiment was a recession signal, and probably the result of high hopes on the passage of political ploys and on stock market flows. Before that, I was anticipating a downgrade of the economic outlook by the Federal Reserve, given its own discussion indicating so, but when the Fed published its revised forecast in March, the Fed’s math simply did not add up.

Despite the market’s ignorance to the economic signals, I suggested it might be time to Sell the SPY, or the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) at the close of Q1. Finally, over recent weeks we have seen a question raised in the trading of stocks and the ETFs measuring them like the SPDR Dow Jones Industrials (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ). We’ve seen real evidence as well in the forecasts and actions of cyclical companies like Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) for instance. I’ve noted several times that Q1 EPS estimates have been reduced significantly over the course of the first quarter. There are still factors working in favor of stocks like capital flows into equity funds, but I believe those are tiring now or will tire as evidence mounts against the economy.

Today, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Challenger Job-Cuts Report each offered a tough chew. Weekly claims for the period ending March 30, reported today, increased by 28K and reached 385K. That’s dangerously close to that psychology threshold of 400K almost overnight. The four-week moving average for the data point increased by 11,250, and rose to 354,250. The meaningful change in the moving average reflects a significant change in the economic direction.

The Challenger Gray & Christmas Job-Cuts Report showed that announced corporate layoffs increased 30% against the prior year comparable period. March job cuts totaled 49,255 in the period. It was the second straight month and the fourth in the last six to show poorly against last year. It likewise marks a change in economic trend, and it cannot be ignored. Retailers led March downsizing, with Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD) and its Kmart unit, as well as Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) reducing workforce. Blockbuster closed down altogether. That reflects poorly on consumer spending and the condition of Americans generally, despite the real estate recovery and stock market gains.

The market can only ignore the economic message for so long. It is being pounded in now, with the ISM Manufacturing Index also weighing on us this week. Economists with cautious views have born a cost with momentum driven market mavens coming down critically upon them. However, this market voice, which also offers an economic perspective, has given you the full picture for stocks and the economy, and at times the two have diverged. Can you understand that message? The comments that follow below here will show mostly a perspective based on simply the title of this article, but you who have read through have understood the message and I welcome you to continue receiving it.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Thursday’s Market – 2 Poor Jobs Reports Torpedo the Ship

2013-04-04T09:48:00.000-04:00

By Kelly Barth:

A double dose of poor employment data has stock futures, which had been higher in the earlier going, giving back much ground. Both the monthly Job-Cuts Report and the Weekly Jobless Claims data proved soft today. This will likely raise concern about Friday’s Employment Situation Report and the general state of the economy. Our founder indicates factors point toward a down day for stocks today.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	9:00 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	9:00 AM
EURO STOXX 50	Unchanged	NIKKEI 225	+2.2%
German DAX	-0.1%	Hang Seng	-0.1%
CAC 40	Unchanged	S&P/ASX 200	-0.9%
FTSE 100	-0.8%	Korean KOSPI	-1.2%
Greek ASE	+0.9%	BSE India SENSEX	-1.6%

Japanese shares are higher and shares in the United Kingdom are lower after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy statements. Notably in Japan, the introduction of qualitative and quantitative monetary easing has the shares of Japanese exporters like Sony (NYSE: SNE), Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM) and others moving higher.

Economic Reports
Two more employment data points find the wire Thursday. First catch the Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job-Cuts Report. There was a bit of a pickup in announced corporate layoffs in February, to 55,356. The March report has no economists’ forecast to peg to. This data is often impacted by large layoff announcements at major companies. The financial sector dominated February’s layoffs, with J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) announcing large cuts. Still, industrial firms, especially defense companies, may take the baton soon. United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) announced 3,000 layoffs in March.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due for report at 8:30. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 23 showed weekly claims increased by 16K to 357K. The four-week moving average for jobless claims increased 2,250 to 343K. If another increase follows, investor concern will heighten.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the Sabew Spring Conference.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index deteriorated for the second straight week last week. The weekly measure of the consumer mood fell by 0.5, to a mark of -34.4. In relative news, last week offered the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which fell significantly. In a report published elsewhere, we said it served as a recession signal.

The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 22 showed working gas in storage fell by 95 Bcf. Stocks were 642 Bcf less than last year at this time, but still 61 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year.

Commodity Markets (9:00 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-1.2%
Brent Crude	-0.7%
RBOB Gasoline	-0.9%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+0.6%
Gold Spot	-0.3%
Silver Spot	-0.4%
COMEX Copper	-0.4%
CBOT Corn	-0.7%
CBOT Wheat	-1.0%
CBOT Soybeans	-0.5%
ICE Sugar	+0.8%
ICE Cocoa	-1.7%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	-0.9%
CME Live Cattle	Unch.

Corporate Events
The corporate wire has Urban Outfitters (Nasdaq: URBN) presenting at the Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Retail & Restaurant Conference. Hanesbrands (NYSE: HBI) has its April investor meeting. American Water Works (NYSE: AWK) is presenting at the NAIC Better Investing Retail Investor Conference. Aruba Networks (Nasdaq: ARUN) is presenting at the Wells Fargo Tech Transformation Summit. The EPS slate highlights presentations by Franklin Covey (NYSE: FC), Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX), International Speedway (Nasdaq: ISCA), WD-40 (Nasdaq: WDFC), Joseph A. Bank (Nasdaq: JOSB), RPM International (NYSE: RPM) and Xyratex (Nasdaq: XRTX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Apple (AAPL) Supported by Rumors & Tricks

2013-04-03T10:57:00.001-04:00

There’s nothing tangible besides Apple’s own share repurchase efforts to stop Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) shares from dropping to below their 52-week low of $419 in the very near-term. The shares only recovered over the last month because of rumors and anticipation. However, without any real news to give credence to prospective buyers, Apple shares could give way to a new low, perhaps as deep as $400.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Apple

Chart at Yahoo Finance

Before the latest share rally, your author here suggested that For Apple, No News is Bad News. Not long after that note was published, the Apple rumor mill started churning faster. First there was renewed chatter of a potential special unscheduled product announcement, with hope for news of new electronic gear like an Apple watch or the long anticipated Apple television set. The excitement was heightened because of Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) introduction of its Google Glass, and Samsung (OTC: SSNLF.PK) and Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY) introductions of their newest phones. Still, an eerie silence surrounded Apple and none of those rumors materialized.

Then, with pressure from activist investors ongoing, and as the company approached the one-year anniversary of its dividend and repurchase program announcement, popular media began speculating about a possible event for this year. The coverage was so heavy it almost seemed factual, but there was no indication from Apple that such an event was in the cards.

On the day that Samsung (OTC: SSNLF) introduced its Galaxy S IV with high hoopla and celebration, famed investor Bill Miller appeared on CNBC television before the market open and shared that he favored Apple again and had just concluded acquiring a stake. In my piece, Why Apple Rose on Samsung’s Big Day, I suggested the curious gain for Apple that day was likely attributable to the Miller interview and, I speculated, on Apple’s own share repurchases to support its stock.

But months have passed and still no news from Apple. Investors are starting to question whether the company actually has anything to say or any new product to wow America with. The next opportunity for it to wow us may not come until the company’s next earnings release, scheduled for April 23 at 5 PM ET. Even so, after the long boys have cried rally wolf so many times, who is to say the shares will rally again into the risk of another letdown. Tuesday just after the noon hour a guest on CNBC’s Halftime Report expressed his view that Apple would introduce a television in the third quarter. The stock did not budge higher from its already established gain on the day. The boys who cry for Apple to go higher are starting to be ignored already.

It’s clear by now that standing pat is not going to turn AAPL around. The company’s technology is being effectively chased down now by Samsung and Google, and perhaps less effectively by Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY), Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and more. The challengers to Apple are still lining up, with Facebook (NYSE: FB) now set to launch its own mobile platform as well. No, standing atop the hill will inevitably result in Apple being knocked off the hill, because those who would do it are all around Apple now.

A capital use announcement like an increased dividend or a special dividend has the potential of backfiring on Apple, because of the message it might send. Apple Must Send the Right Message, that it is still a growth company and the innovator of our age, and not that it is a maturing company preparing to become a cash cow dividend payer. A higher dividend is a good thing, but absent of any news about where growth will come from, will probably lead the shares lower in my opinion. An increased share repurchase program could produce a different outcome, because investors might read into it about Apple’s plans for the second half of 2013.

Apple’s valuation is a support for the stock, but it does not reflect an expectation for the company to continue to grow at the pace it has managed in the past. The stock’s forward P/E of 9.9X and PEG ratio of 0.5X is expressing doubt in Apple’s growth outlook.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) removed Apple from its conviction buy list Tuesday and others are expressing concern about its non-contention in the lower priced (lower margin) phone market. Now we have to assume that the Goldman analyst has good insight, so this is a peculiar moment for him to be hedging. Still, pressure from “above” always seems to mount on analysts at precisely the wrong moment, and I speak from experience. We’re within the quiet period for the company and so the analyst is not basing anything on a discussion with management, we assume. Therefore, I do not see this as an especially important warning sign. I think he’s just lost confidence in Apple’s team as much as I have.

Still, I expect Apple to eventually produce that big product announcement, but I’m just not convinced it will be before $400. I’m losing confidence in the company’s shareholder focus, because I believe it should be more loudly hinting at its new product efforts or aggressively supporting the stock with its allotted repurchase plan. Some of this is probably occurring and is probably the very reason why the stock was up Tuesday against the Goldman cut (similarly to its rise on the day of the Samsung product release). Given the share price drop recently, I’m wondering if Apple is more focused on looking good six months from now when it tells the story about how it repurchased shares at such bargain prices, versus the focus it should have about the positions of its shareholders in the here and now. The way to support that focus is to say something about a new product, even if that product is not yet fully ready. That’s my view, and I welcome you to follow my column and tag along for more of the same. Also, business owners who see value in my insight may contact me about consulting services, as I can study, analyze and add value to businesses of all sorts and sizes. Those interested in potentially hiring me to manage a mutual fund or hedge fund portfolio may make contact as well, as nothing is beyond my consideration.

More interesting work on Apple and Google: Will Google Fall if Apple Rises?

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Wednesday – Incensed to Buy

2013-04-03T09:39:00.001-04:00

By Ed Gaynor:

Details of the IMF portion of the deal for Cyprus emerged this morning, and all you need to know is that European shares are lower en masse. In the U.S. a poor showing by the ADP Private Employment forecast has U.S. futures a little uncertain. The recent five-day chart for stocks shows an inclination to rise, which is probably due to the conflicting data reported about Factory Orders yesterday, matching against a weak ISM Index from the day before. There remains an inclination to buy the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ).

Incensed to Buy

Chart at Yahoo Finance

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	9:00 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	9:00 AM
EURO STOXX 50	-0.7%	NIKKEI 225	+3.0%
German DAX	-0.2%	Hang Seng	-0.1%
CAC 40	-0.5%	S&P/ASX 200	-0.6%
FTSE 100	-0.4%	Korean KOSPI	-0.2%

The Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hold monetary policy meetings Wednesday, but the ECB is inactive. The BOE and BOJ policy statements will be published Thursday morning.

Economic Reports

ADP’s Private Employment Report is set for release in the premarket Wednesday. This first of the week’s monthly employment report parade is expected to show private nonfarm payrolls increased by 205K in March. That would mark deterioration against February’s 246K increase. Remember that ADP’s data point is but an estimate itself of the federal government’s report scheduled for release two days later.

At 10:00 AM ET, look for ISM’s report on the service sector. ISM’s Nonmanufacturing Index is expected to hold steady in March at the 56.0 mark it set in February. Anything above 50 marks economic expansion, so no change is still good news.

We will also get the latest mortgage activity data from the Mortgage Bankers Association in the premarket Wednesday. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 22 showed mortgage applications increased 7.7%. Interest rates fell last week, spurring both purchase and refinance activity.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economy and monetary policy in the U.S. at a Town Hall meeting in Los Angeles.

Look for the EIA’s regular Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the week ending March 22 showed crude oil inventory increased by 3.3 million barrels, and remained well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline decreased by 1.6 million barrels but remained in the middle of the average range.

Commodity Markets (9:00 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-0.6%
Brent Crude	-0.9%
RBOB Gasoline	-1.2%
NYMEX Natural Gas	-0.6%
Gold Spot	-0.1%
Silver Spot	Unch.
COMEX Copper	-0.4%
CBOT Corn	+0.2%
CBOT Wheat	+1.1%
CBOT Soybeans	-0.5%
ICE Sugar	-0.1%
ICE Cocoa	-1.9
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	-2.2%
CME Live Cattle	+0.1%

Corporate Events

In corporate news, Pandora Media (NYSE: P) is having a fireside chat at the Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) Tech Transformation Summit. Niska Gas Storage Partners (NYSE: NKA) is having a conference call to discuss its equity restructuring and elimination of subordinate units. PROS Holdings (NYSE: PRO) is having an analysts meeting. The day’s EPS schedule highlights reports from ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG), Monsanto (NYSE: MON), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), Harry Winston Diamond (NYSE: DDC), TEAM Inc. (Nasdaq: TISI), China Xiniya Fashion (NYSE: XNY), Conn’s (Nasdaq: CONN), Mitcham Industries (Nasdaq: MIND), OMNOVA Solutions (NYSE: OMN) and Schnitzer Steel Industries (Nasdaq: SCHN).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Why the Week’s 4.7% Same-Store Sales Growth is Misleading

2013-04-02T15:38:00.001-04:00

By The Greek:

It sounds fantastic! Retailers reported weekly same-store sales increased by 4.7% week-to-week in the period ending March 30. That is great news right? No, it’s not, and here’s why.

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported same-store sales rose 4.7% week-to-week in the March 30 period. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 1.9%, though Redbook saw the yearly comparison for the period even better, at plus 3.5%. Perhaps readers suspect we might pooh-pooh the news by attributing the sales growth to discounters like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) or to online sellers like Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), due to their stealing of market share from the Macy’s (NYSE: M) and J.C. Penney’s (NYSE: JCP) of the world. No, that’s not it. So what’s wrong with the numbers then?

Well, a peak at the prior week’s results offers a clue. In the week ending March 23, the ICSC reported same-store sales were down 1.7% week-to-week. The yearly comparisons were likewise poor, with sales only 1.0% higher according to the ICSC and 2.6% higher according to Redbook. The reason is really rather simple.

It’s about the Easter holiday and where it sits on the calendar this year versus last year. This year, Easter fell on March 31st, and last year it fell on April 8th. Sales were strong in the week of Easter and Passover because of the surge of seasonal sales tied to the holidays, not all of which are accounted for perfectly. Consider all the flowers 1-800-Flowers.com Inc. (Nasdaq: FLWS) sells and all the Easter Baskets CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS) sells, all the Easter Bonnets Macy’s (M) sells and all the new dresses J.C. Penney (JCP) sells. Let’s not forget the Easter and Passover meals that lead families to gather together, and the necessary shopping at Kroger’s (NYSE: KR) and Whole Foods Market (NYSE: WFM).

For this reason sales picked up in the week before Easter as they do every year. From this understanding, we garner insight about next week as well, because last year the week incorporated Easter shopping and this year it will not. Thus, these same-store sales reports should show poor comparable results on a weekly and yearly basis when reported next Tuesday.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Will Google Fall if Apple Rises?

2013-04-02T09:57:00.000-04:00

A comment posted to a recent report of mine suggested that Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) shares might be negatively correlated. In other words, the reader suggested that Google has benefited from Apple’s weakness since December. I thought it to be an interesting theory worthy of further review, and so we explore that here. Because I believe AAPL will eventually rise again, we especially want to know if AAPL rises, will GOOG fall?

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Google vs. Apple

Chart at Yahoo Finance

The six-month chart comparison of the two behemoths of technology does seem to indicate negative correlation of returns. The deviation of the two stocks seems to pick up steam in mid-December.

Chart at Yahoo Finance

The one-year chart here adds some color as well, because it shows the two stocks were probably positively correlated, or at least each correlated to the broader market before December. Apple diverged from the market as well in December, which was painfully obvious to Apple shareholders. Apple should have followed the market higher, since it carries a beta coefficient of 0.74. Google’s beta is 1.18, and so it should exaggerate market moves. Apple has clearly marched to the beat of its own drummer over the last several years, but historically, that march was to its benefit against a weaker market performance.

It’s certainly possible that Apple’s decline is completely unrelated to Google’s rise. Because around the time it began lower, market chatter was expressing concern about a possible increase to the capital gains tax rate. Long-time holders of Apple may have taken gains before the turn of the year in order to avoid paying higher taxes in the future. There is a critical flaw in that argument though since Google’s long-term performance is also pretty good. So there might have been selling in GOOG around that time for the same reason.

Chart at Yahoo Finance

The only reason one might think the two could be correlated is due to capital flows, and the similarities of the companies in terms of sector participation, market capitalization and trading volume. Apple dominates most companies in each of those last two categories, and it dominates Google as well. However, Google shares have heavy enough volume to support the demand of big institutional investors who may have needed something interesting in technology to replace Apple holdings over recent months.

Even if that were the case, as time passes and given new valuation considerations, any negative correlation would dissolve. In my opinion, the two companies each offer interesting long-term opportunity for investors in stocks because of the importance of their goods and services in the marketplace and their ongoing prospects. Furthermore, I believe each should be included in the space allotted to technology within diversified portfolios. Apple would seem to offer the best value with its PEG ratio of 0.5X, but the stock’s valuation is due to recent questions about its ability to continue to innovate and grow. Google may seem expensive as it trades at a PEG of 1.2X, but it is introducing new electronics now, including the Google Glass, and so could pick up its growth pace. In conclusion and in answering my question, no, I do not think Google will fall if Apple rises.

This article will also interest investors in Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Samsung (OTC: SSNLF), Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), Facebook (NYSE: FB) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stock Market Preview - Economic Reports, Corporate Events, International Markets, Commodities

2013-04-02T08:48:00.001-04:00

By Kelly Barth:

The market sank yesterday on a tough ISM Manufacturing read, with the ISM Index falling to 51.3, from 54.2 last month. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) dropped ever so slightly because of a late day reach higher. Futures are indicating a positive swing Tuesday, but more manufacturing data is on the schedule. Factory Orders and Motor Vehicle Sales will either confirm ISM or offer enough conflicting evidence to give stocks some lift.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	Thru 7:50 AM	ASIA/PACIFIC	7:50 AM
EURO STOXX 50	+1.1%	NIKKEI 225	-1.1%
German DAX	+1.2%	Hang Seng	+0.3%
CAC 40	+1.0%	S&P/ASX 200	+0.4%
FTSE 100	+1.1%	Korean KOSPI	-0.5%

European area unemployment increased to 12% in February, as the euro zone economy has contracted for five straight quarters and is expected to do so again in Q1. Cyprus markets opened after a two week closure and stocks dropped in the crippled country. North Korea threatened to restart a long shut nuclear power plant and the U.S. has moved a destroyer off the nation’s coast as Chinese troops gather at its border.

Economic Reports

More manufacturing and other goods producer information reaches the wire Tuesday, with Factory Orders being reported for the month of February. It’s just one week since the Durable Goods Report showed pretty soft data excluding transportation orders. For Factory Orders, economists see a 2.9% increase in this figure, compared to last month’s 2.0% decline.

Monthly motor vehicle sales will be reported on Tuesday instead of Monday, due to the holiday. The news from Ford (NYSE: F), General Motors (NYSE: GM), Chrysler (owned mostly by Fiat (OTC: FIATY)), and Toyota (NYSE: TM) fits nicely with the other manufacturing reports set for release through the first two days of the week. In aggregate, domestic motor vehicle sales are expected to have run at an annual pace of 12.1 million in March, the same as in February. Total vehicle sales by American producers are expected to be running at a pace of 15.4 million now, the same as the month before.

Richmond Fed Bank President Jeffrey Lacker and the Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans are scheduled to speak on monetary policy Tuesday. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim will address global poverty. President Obama is meeting with the Prime Minister of Singapore at the White House.

Tuesday also offers the regular retail same-store sales data. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed week-to-week sales decreased 1.7%. On a year-to-year basis, sales were marked up 1.0%. Each measure represented deterioration against the prior week’s rates, but were likely impacted by Easter.

Commodity Markets (8:00 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-0.01%
Brent Crude	+0.53%
RBOB Gasoline	-0.38%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+0.15%
Gold Spot	-0.2%
Silver Spot	-0.2%
COMEX Copper	+0.04%
CBOT Corn	+0.86%
CBOT Wheat	+1.13%
CBOT Soybeans	+0.74%
ICE Sugar	+0.11%
ICE Cocoa	Unch.
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	+0.45%
CME Live Cattle	+0.16%

Corporate Events

In corporate news, look for investor and analyst days at EnerSys (NYSE: ENS), Hertz Global (NYSE: HTZ) and Global Brass & Copper (Nasdaq: BRSS). Expect earnings from McCormick (NYSE: MKC), Global Payments (NYSE: GPN), Blonder Tongue Laboratories (NYSE: BDR), BOS Better Online Solutions (Nasdaq: BOSC), Edap Tms SA (Nasdaq: EDAP), G-III Apparel (Nasdaq: GIII), magicJack Vocaltec (Nasdaq: CALL), Oxford Industries (NYSE: OXM), Real Goods Solar (Nasdaq: RSOL), Resources Connection (Nasdaq: RECN), SPAR Group (Nasdaq: SGRP), TEAM (Nasdaq: TISI) and ZaZa Energy (Nasdaq: ZAZA).

Our Latest Research Elsewhere

The Real Estate Recovery May Not Be Intact
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT): Can the Q1 Dog Turnaround in Q2?

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

It’s Opening Day for Baseball and Q2 Too

2013-04-01T06:00:00.000-04:00

By Ed Gaynor:

It’s that time of year again, full of cherry blossoms, baseball and first quarter earnings reports. Earnings season has not started just yet, but first quarter books are closed. Today marks the first day of the second quarter, and just as the S&P 500 (NYSE: VOO) strikes a new record, economic data may test its resolve.

Opening Day

Overseas markets produced some important information Monday. Japan’s tankan index improved to minus 8 for the March quarter, up from minus 12 in Q4 2012. Unfortunately, the figure is still reflecting pessimism among manufacturers in Japan and the result was short of economist expectations as well. In China, authorities in Beijing and Shanghai put new restrictions in place to cool fervor for housing. For instance, in Beijing, the minimum down payment for a second home purchase has been raised, and in both cities, a 20% capital gains tax has been imposed on home sales. Also, in Beijing, single Chinese citizens can only own one residential property now.

Some markets, including in Germany and Italy, will not even open for Easter Monday. In the U.S., the first week of the month and the second quarter kicks off with a heavy economic data load. Three major data points find the morning market, with the PMI Manufacturing Report, ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending data all due.

The Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index leads off with its 8:58 AM ET reporting. Last month, the data for February showed the index at 54.3 at its final reading. It slipped significantly through the month though, dropping from its initial “Flash” reading of 55.2. In January, the index closed out at 55.8. All indications are that manufacturing activity tailed off. There’s no consensus estimate for March, but these indications are not good.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index will follow at 10:00 AM ET. This widely followed manufacturing measure is seen by economists slipping slightly in March to 54.0, down from 54.2 in February. The range of economists’ views extends from 51.6 to 55.0, so it’s leaning to the downside. If we get two poor manufacturing data points, stocks could slip Monday. Manufacturing has been a linchpin of this economy, and if it is pulled out from under us, it will join recently softer housing data in weakening support for stocks.

Construction Spending data is due at 10:00 as well. After a 2.1% spending dip in January, economists expect February spending rose 1.1%. Between the three of these data points, the market should have filled its pallet for one day.

The corporate wire has Chesapeake Energy’s (NYSE: CHK) operational update conference call. The earnings schedule has reports from Cal-Maine Foods (Nasdaq: CALM), Dago New Energy (NYSE: DQ), MFC Industrial (NYSE: MIL), Oxford Resource Partners (NYSE: OXF), American Shared Hospital Services (NYSE: AMS) and Derma Sciences (Nasdaq: DSCI). Also find reports from Asure Software (Nasdaq: ASUR), Bona Film Group (Nasdaq: BONA), CAMAC Energy (NYSE: CAK), China Auto Logistics (Nasdaq: CALI), China Housing & Land Development (Nasdaq: CHLN), Flexible Solutions Int’l (NYSE: FSI), Forbes Energy Services (NYSE: FES), Multiband (Nasdaq: MBND), Shoe Carnival (Nasdaq: SCVL), Sorl Auto Parts (Nasdaq: SORL), Spanish Broadcasting System (Nasdaq: SBSA), Tri-Tech Holding (Nasdaq: TRIT) and Widepoint (NYSE: WYY).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Week Ahead – Jobs & Manufacturing Data Could Shake Things Up

2013-03-31T23:57:00.003-04:00

The week ahead offers a slew of important manufacturing and jobs data capable of shaking things up for stocks. The first quarter produced stellar stock gains, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) gaining 10.5%, 11.9% and 6.1%, respectively, after adjustment for dividends (total return). The second quarter starts this week, but after the S&P 500 marked a historical high on the last day of Q1, it may have some reconciling to do against softening economic data moving forward.

Monday

Some markets, including in Germany and Italy, will not even open for Easter Monday. In the U.S., the first week of the month and the second quarter kicks off with a heavy economic data load. Three major data points find the morning market, with the PMI Manufacturing Report, ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending data all due.

The Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index leads off with its 8:58 AM ET reporting. Last month, the data for February showed the index at 54.3 at its final reading. It slipped significantly through the month though, dropping from its initial “Flash” reading of 55.2. In January, the index closed out at 55.8. All indications are that manufacturing activity tailed off. There’s no consensus estimate for March, but these indications are not good.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index will follow at 10:00 AM ET. This widely followed manufacturing measure is seen by economists slipping slightly in March to 54.0, down from 54.2 in February. The range of economists’ views extends from 51.6 to 55.0, so it’s leaning to the downside. If we get two poor manufacturing data points, stocks could slip Monday. Manufacturing has been a linchpin of this economy, and if it is pulled out from under us, it will join recently softer housing data in weakening support for stocks.

Construction Spending data is due at 10:00 as well. After a 2.1% spending dip in January, economists expect February spending rose 1.1%. Between the three of these data points, the market should have filled its pallet for one day.

The corporate wire has earnings from Cal-Maine Foods (Nasdaq: CALM), Dago New Energy (NYSE: DQ), MFC Industrial (NYSE: MIL), Oxford Resource Partners (NYSE: OXF), American Shared Hospital Services (NYSE: AMS) and Derma Sciences (Nasdaq: DSCI).

Tuesday

More manufacturing and other goods producer information reaches the wire Tuesday, with Factory Orders being reported for the month of February. It’s just one week since the Durable Goods Report showed pretty soft data excluding transportation orders. For Factory Orders, economists see a 2.9% increase in this figure, compared to last month’s 2.0% decline.

Monthly motor vehicle sales will be reported on Tuesday instead of Monday, due to the holiday. The news from Ford (NYSE: F), General Motors (NYSE: GM), Chrysler (owned mostly by Fiat (OTC: FIATY)), and Toyota (NYSE: TM) fits nicely with the other manufacturing reports set for release through the first two days of the week. In aggregate, domestic motor vehicle sales are expected to have run at an annual pace of 12.1 million in March, the same as in February. Total vehicle sales by American producers are expected to be running at a pace of 15.4 million now, the same as the month before.

Richmond Fed Bank President Jeffrey Lacker and the Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans are scheduled to speak on monetary policy Tuesday. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim will address global poverty. President Obama is meeting with the Prime Minister of Singapore at the White House.

Tuesday also offers the regular retail same-store sales data. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed week-to-week sales decreased 1.7%. On a year-to-year basis, sales were marked up 1.0%. Each measure represented deterioration against the prior week’s rates, but were likely impacted by Easter.

In corporate news, look for investor and analyst days at EnerSys (NYSE: ENS) and Global Brass & Copper (Nasdaq: BRSS). Expect earnings from McCormick (NYSE: MKC), Global Payments (NYSE: GPN), Blonder Tongue Laboratories (NYSE: BDR), BOS Better Online Solutions (Nasdaq: BOSC) and ZaZa Energy (Nasdaq: ZAZA).

Wednesday

The Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hold monetary policy meetings Wednesday, but the ECB is inactive. San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economy and monetary policy in the U.S. at a Town Hall meeting in Los Angeles.

ADP’s Private Employment Report is set for release in the premarket Wednesday. This first of the week’s monthly employment report parade is expected to show private nonfarm payrolls increased by 205K in March. That would mark deterioration against February’s 246K increase. Remember that ADP’s data point is but an estimate itself of the federal government’s report scheduled for release two days later.

At 10:00 AM ET, look for ISM’s report on the service sector. ISM’s Nonmanufacturing Index is expected to hold steady in March at the 56.0 mark it set in February. Anything above 50 marks economic expansion, so no change is still good news.

We will also get the latest mortgage activity data from the Mortgage Bankers Association in the premarket Wednesday. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 22 showed mortgage applications increased 7.7%. Interest rates fell last week, spurring both purchase and refinance activity.

Look for the EIA’s regular Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the week ending March 22 showed crude oil inventory increased by 3.3 million barrels, and remained well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline decreased by 1.6 million barrels but remained in the middle of the average range.

In corporate news, Pandora Media (NYSE: P) is having a fireside chat at the Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) Tech Transformation Summit. The day’s EPS schedule highlights reports from ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG), Monsanto (NYSE: MON), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), Harry Winston Diamond (NYSE: DDC) and TEAM Inc. (Nasdaq: TISI).

Thursday

Two more employment data points find the wire Thursday. First catch the Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job-Cuts Report. There was a bit of a pickup in announced corporate layoffs in February, to 55,356. The March report has no economists’ forecast to peg to. This data is often impacted by large layoff announcements at major companies. The financial sector dominated February’s layoffs, with J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) announcing large cuts. Still, industrial firms, especially defense companies, may take the baton soon. United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) announced 3,000 layoffs in March.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due for report at 8:30. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 23 showed weekly claims increased by 16K to 357K. The four-week moving average for jobless claims increased 2,250 to 343K. If another increase follows, investor concern will heighten.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the Sabew Spring Conference.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index deteriorated for the second straight week last week. The weekly measure of the consumer mood fell by 0.5, to a mark of -34.4. In relative news, last week offered the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which fell significantly. In a report published elsewhere, we said it served as a recession signal.

The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 22 showed working gas in storage fell by 95 Bcf. Stocks were 642 Bcf less than last year at this time, but still 61 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year.

The corporate wire has Urban Outfitters (Nasdaq: URBN) presenting at the Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Retail & Restaurant Conference. Hanesbrands (NYSE: HBI) has its April investor meeting. The EPS slate highlights presentations by Franklin Covey (NYSE: FC), Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX), International Speedway (Nasdaq: ISCA), WD-40 (Nasdaq: WDFC) and others.

Friday

The Employment Situation Report is due at 8:30 AM ET. The report for March is expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 193K, less than February’s 236K. Private nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by just 200K this month, versus the 246K increase last month. The unemployment rate should hold steady at 7.7% according to economists, but last month, we saw it closer to 11.8%.

Look for the International Trade data at 8:30 AM as well. Economists expect February’s trade gap widened to $44.8 billion from $44.4 billion in January. Exports declined last month versus an increase in import demand.

The Federal Reserve reports on Consumer Credit at 3:00 PM ET. Economists see February’s consumer credit expanding by $15 billion, against January’s expansion of $16.2 billion.

The corporate wire has the BioCentury Publications Future Leaders in Biotech Industry Conference, with highlighted presentations from Cytokinetics (Nasdaq: CYTK), Cytori Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CYTX) and Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SCMP).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Banks are Open on Good Friday, Stock Market is Closed

2013-03-29T11:16:00.000-04:00

U.S. equity markets are closed for Good Friday, but banks are open in the United States. Internationally, securities markets are also closed in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, the U.K., across South America and many other places for this very important day. The new Pope, Francis, should be awaited with great joy and love as he presides over services for the first time as Pope of the Catholic Church. Orthodox Christians do not mark Good Friday until May 3rd this year.

There are two economic reports on the schedule.

Personal Income & Outlays data are due for release at 8:30 AM. Economists are looking for personal spending to increase by 0.6% in February, compared to 0.2% growth in January. Personal income is seen higher by 0.9% in February, after falling 3.6% in January. The Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index is expected to show 0.2% increase month-to-month, versus the prior month’s 0.1% increase.

The Reuters / University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is up for 9:55 AM release. Economists expect improvement for March, with the index expected to rise to 72.5, from 71.8 in February.

The corporate wire has EPS from Birner Dental Management Services (Nasdaq: BDMS), China Armco Metals (Nasdaq: CNAM), Tengasco (NYSE: TGC) and USA Technologies (Nasdaq: USAT). Our founder published a long report on Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY) and a short report on Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY) yesterday. Today Mr. Kaminis posed the question, should we Sell the SPY on its High (NYSE: SPY)?

We wish you a happy Easter and Passover dear friends from your friends at Wall Street Greek.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.