Katje's Stock World

Top 5 ETFs for 2011

2011-01-03T21:22:00.000-05:00

For the past three years I have released a list of top ten stocks for the year ahead. This year I decided to do a list of the top ETFs for the year. Prices are from 12/31/10.

Listed in alphabetical oder by symbol:

ECH-Chile
$79.60

This ETF charges 0.61% and is offered by Ishares. The company invests in companies based in Chile. Utilities is the largest weighting with 23% of the ETF. Chile is growing and is expected to be one of the top Latin American regions for GDP growth in 2011. Look to get in on this growing country ETF as middle class rises.

MOO-Agribusiness
$53.54

This ETF charges 0.59% and is offered by Van Eck Global. The company has 47 holdings in the agriculture industry. The top ten holdings are Monsanto, Potash, Mosaic, Deere, Wilmar, Yara International, Syngenta, Archer Daniels Midland, Brasil Foods, and Agrium. The top three holdings are all around 8% of the ETF. The company has great exposure to food stocks and to agriculture equipment stocks as well. Agriculture stocks were up in 2010 and I believe they will continue to raise in 2011. This is a great fund to be in this next year.

PALL-Palladium
$79.86

This ETF charges 0.60 and is offered by ETF Securities. The ETF was introduced in 2010 and holds physical palladium. The precious metal is used in technology and in cars. The metal has had a nice runup and I believe that will continue in 2011.

XLK-Technology
$25.19

This ETF charges 0.22% and is offered by State Street. The company focuses on the technology sector.The company's top ten holdings are Apple, Microsoft, IBM, ATT, Google, Oracle, Cisco, Verizon, Intel, and Qualcomm. The company holds 85 stock positions (as of 12/31/10). I love the technology industry for 2011 as the talk of cloud computing and internet storage heats up. Apple is the largest holding at 12% so if you were thinking of investing in Apple why not get some exposure here plus the added safety and bonus of technology.

XLV-Healthcare
$31.50

This ETF charges 0.22% and is offered by State Street. The company holds 51 stocks in the healthcare sector. The company's top ten holdings include Johnson and Johnson, Pfizer, Merck, Abbott Laboratories, Amgen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Medtronic, UnitedHealthGroup, Eli Lilly, and Express Scripts. Johnson and Johnson makes up 13.63% and Pfizer makes up 11.25% of the ETF. Those two holdings are almost a quarter of the entire ETF. I like both of those stocks for 2011 and also like that the ETF has exposure to Gilead, Celgene, Genzyme, and Biogen. Look at this ETF for the healthcare rise in 2011.

Those are my top five ETFs for 2011. I will update throughout the year and may provide more ETF picks.

My Top Ten Stock Picks for 2011

2011-01-03T19:46:00.001-05:00

My Top Ten Stocks for 2011

This article marks the third consecutive year of picking ten stocks for the year. The results from the past two years have been great and can be found here:

2009

2010

Below are my top ten stock picks (listed alphabetically by company name) followed by honorable mentions and also several ETFs to keep an eye on. Prices are as of close on December 31st, 2010.
AMRC-Ameresco
Start: $14.36

Why: Ameresco went public in October of 2010 and is up only about 10% since that first day of trading. I stumbled upon this company the other day and am glad that I did. The company has a market cap of around $650 million, making it the smallest of my top ten stock picks. The company makes buildings more energy efficient, with major contracts from governments and schools. The company trades at a price divided by sales of 1 and is also trading below enterprise value right now. This is a great green play and as the company is a small cap it has plenty of room to run this year and in the future.
BAC-Bank of America
Start: $13.34

Why: The financial market is still on the upswing from its lowest levels. Bank of America trades close to its 52 week low at year end. The company still trades below book value and enterprise value. Bank of America scared investors off with its rumored Wikileaks target. Look for the larger banks to buyout smaller banks in 2011. Look for the bigger banks like Bank of America and Citigroup to continue to get past their debt problems and strengthen their balance sheets.
CNH-Case New Holland
Start: $47.74

Why: The Case and New Holland brands are great brands in the agricultural and construction industries. The company also owns the Kobelco and Steyr brands. The company always plays third wheel to John Deere and Caterpillar. Fiat owns 89% of the Case New Holland company. If Fiat decides to split off the company or sell part of its stake the company becomes a huge takeout target. The stock should rise to $60 by the year end as it is currently trading at 1.5x book and less than 1.0 price divided by sales.
CSCO-Cisco
Start: $20.23

Why: Cisco is an absolute value play here at these levels. Cisco continues to buy out rivals and expand into new industries. The company is involved in several technology industries and is involved in the Cloud technology that will dominate the talk of 2011. The company has been buying back shares and announced it will begin paying a dividend in 2011. At these levels I have to recommend the stock and think it should hit $28 to $30 by the end of the year.
GLW-Corning
Start: $19.32

Why: Corning makes glass components used in everything from televisions, laptops, phones, and tablets. The company continues to expand and be used by more and more large technology companies. The company originally was dependant on television sales throughout the world but now with its Gorilla Glass technology (glass which is scratch resistance) it continues to expand rapidly throughout the tablet and mobile phone industry. Shares are trading at 10x 2011 earnings and the company pays a dividend of around 1% as well.
DWA-Dreamworks Animation
Start: $29.47

Why: Dreamworks had a good 2010 with the releases of Megamind, Shrek 4, and How to Train Your Dragon. These movies did not perform as well at the box office as investors had hoped for and the stock got punished pushing it down close to its 52 week low to end the year. The company trades with no debt and at about 13x 2011 earnings. The company will release Kung Fu Panda 2 and The Guardians in 2011. The Guardians deals with Santa, the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy, and Sandman fighting together against the Boogeyman while Kung Fu Panda 2 is the sequel to a movie that made over $630 million worldwide at the box office. The company continues to expand its relationship licensing its characters out to companies and also has been expanding its television presence as well. The company releases five movies every two years. Look to buy under $30.
EMC-EMC Corporation
Start: $22.90
Why: EMC competes in the high growth highly competitive network storage industry. As internet traffic increases this is a company that will benefit. The company also has a great presence in the Cloud industry which is a leading topic of 2011 investing. EMC owns 80% of VMWare as well. In network storage EMC competes with Dell, IBM, and Hewlett Packard. The company trades at cheap levels on its own and investors are getting the stake in VMWare for next to nothing. Technology remains a place to be for 2011 and this is my favorite tech play for the year.
HGG-hhgregg inc.
Start: $20.95

Why: hhgregg is a consumer electronics specialty store. The store sells large ticket items like televisions and washers and dryers. These large ticket items are not likely purchases from internet and items that customers like seeing in person. Most items are offered with same day delivery. The company currently has 131 stores in 11 states. The 2011 plans are to open 40 to 45 stores. Net sales and profit have continually rose for this company and should continue to rise as the company expands its presence into other states. Investors will take note as this company could replace the vacancy left by Circuit City and start to take market share away from Best Buy.

PSMT-Pricesmart
Start: $38.03

Why: Pricesmart is the Costco/Sam’s Club of the emerging market world. The company has 28 locations in Central and Latin America represented by 11 countries, with plans to open a 29th in Columbia in 2011. The 30th location will also open in the Dominican Republic, which will be its fifth in the country. The company continues to beat analysts expectations every quarter and with same store sales reports every month. Analysts continually raise earnings estimates and the shares are already headed higher at the end of 2010. Pricesmart was founded by Sol Price who already sold a business to Costco. Part of their sale agreement was that he would not open another warehouse company in the United States, so instead he is in the growing Latin American market. This company could also be a buyout target by Costco or Wal Mart at some point down the road.

SIRI-Sirius XM Radio
Start: $1.63

Why: It’s hard to recommend a stock that traded at its 52 week high at the end of the year normally. However, when the stock has everything going for it, like Sirius does, it doesn’t seem like such a bad idea. Sirius just resigned a contract with Howard Stern, which this time around includes a mobile deal. The company also signed a deal with the NFL. These two contracts were the biggest things weighing the stock down in my opinion. The subscription numbers and automobile industry have already proved positive for the company. The company is starting to pay off debt and doesn’t seem to have any future problems with payments, as it has had in past. This company has risen from the brink of bankruptcy to future star. The company does have competition from Pandora, Ipods, and other listening devices but should continue to beat them and gain subscribers based on their offerings of talk radio, comedy, and sports that others can’t offer. I own shares of Sirius and continue to recommend them and would be happy to keep accumulating shares under $1.75.
Honorable Mentions:

BA-Boeing $65.26
Stock has been beaten down to Dreamliner delays. Look for a 2011 rebound back to $75

COH-Coach $55.31
Coach continues to open new stores and expand its presence into China.
DISCA-Discovery Communications $41.70
Discovery own Animal Planet, Discovery Channel, TLC, and the new OWN channel. This would be a play on the creation of the Oprah Winfrey Network which should have strong viewership from women and be a great way for the company to increase its advertising revenue.

FO-Fortune Brands $60.25
Fortune is splitting its company and I would wait to buy until after this. Its spirit division headed by Jim Beam will be a great target for Diageo or someone else to acquire as Jim Beam and Jack Daniels are the top two whiskeys.

LPSN-Liveperson $11.30
Liveperson provides web support to major retailers and companies on their websites. A rival was bought out this past year by Oracle.
MSG-Madison Square Garden $25.78
The company owns New York Knicks, New York Rangers, New York Liberty, and the famous Madison Square Garden. The New York Knicks are playing well this year and could make the playoffs and also could acquire Carmello Anthony which would bring in ticket sales and merchandise sales not currently seen.
SMT-Smart Technologies $9.44
Stock is near a 52 week low. Company sells interactive whiteboards which should increase use in classrooms and offices.
These stocks that were picked are the opinions of the author. Please do your own investment research before investing in them. Good luck in 2011.

Results for Top Ten Stocks of 2010.

2011-01-03T01:52:00.000-05:00

This is a brief summary of how my Top Ten Stocks for 2010 performed over the course of the year. I am working on my new list for 2011 soon.

AAPL-Apple

Start: $210.28

End: $322.56

Gain: 53%

What I Said: Tablet introduction, company continues to beat earnings.

What Happened: Tablet sold well, Iphone sold well. The company continued to increase market share in several areas.

2011: The Iphone finally comes to Verizon, which should increase subscribers of the phone. I think Apple will continue to rise with likely resistance at the $350 level. I would hold any shares that I have and look to accumulate more shares at $315.

AMT-American Tower

Start: $43.21

End: $51.64

Gain: 20%

What I Said: Play on the increase in mobile market as company will continue to lease out tower space.

What Happened: Mobile market continues to grow and American Tower remains well positioned for overseas growth.

2011: Stock had a nice run in 2010 but has plenty of room to grow. American Tower can increase through acquisition and higher lease prices on their towers. The stock is a great play on mobile growth and emerging markets all in one stock.

BRK-B-Berkshire Hathaway

Start: $66.22

End: $80.11

Gain: 21%

What I Said: Stock split for first time in company history would increase institutional holdings and drive price up.

What Happened: The stock moved up after the split as the stock became affordable to everyday investors.

2011: The company is one of the best ran by one of the best investors ever. The only disadvantage is Buffet’s age and health. As long as he is behind the company it will unlock value through new investments and acquisitions.

DIS-Disney

Start: $32.41

End: $37.51 + $0.40 in Dividends

Gain: 17%

What I Said: Strong release schedule of Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, and others would help movie segment. The Marvel acquisition would lead to new movies and tv shows with new characters.

What Happened: Disney had a great year in movies and television. Company also saw increases in traffic to theme parks.

2011: The company will release Cars 2 and Pirates of the Caribbean 4. The company also opens its Hawaii resort in 2011 which could help its theme park segment.

FMX-Fomento Mexicano

Start: $48.21

End: $55.92 + $0.638

Gain: 17%

What I Said: The company was looking for a buyer for its beer unit which would give it cash to focus on opening more Oxxo gas stations in Mexico.

What Happened: The company reached an agreement with Heineken to shed its beer unit. Fomento Mexicano now owns 20% of Heineken while it can shift its focus to its Convenience Store and Coca Cola Segments.

2011: Mexico continues to be one of my favorite countries to invest in. This is a great company to be in as it also has exposure to several other countries.

GILD-Gilead

Start: $43.39

End: $36.24

Loss: 16%

What I Said: Buy recommendation as company was trading near its 52 week low.

What Happened: Company was hit hard by the market. The company still has several promising drugs in the pipeline.

2011: The company trades close to a two year low and currently trades for less than 10x future earnings. This is a great value play at these prices.

MCK-McKesson

Start: $62.50

End: $70.38 + $0.66 in Dividends

Gain: 14%

What I Said: Potential Acquisition target. Company will benefit from 2009 healthcare bill.

What Happened: McKesson increased its dividend during 2010 and seems to be in great financial health. Company is currently trading around its 52 week high.

2011: The company hit a 10 year high and looks like it needs to pull back a little bit more. Look to buy at $64 or less.

NFLX-Netflix

Start: $55.09

End: $175.70

Gain: 219%

What I Said: Netflix is an acquisition target that will get bought out by mid 2011.

What Happened: Company continues to grow on its own without being bought. App for Ipad went over extremely well. New streaming only plan will increase subscriptions. Entry into Canada shows that international expansion strong possibility.

2011: Netflix was up considerably in 2010. It would need strong momentum and subscription numbers to keep up that trend. Also still likely to get bought out at some point. I would look for the stock to fall back to $150 and load up.

SMBL: Smart Balance

Start: $6.16

End: $4.33

Loss: 30%

What I Said: The company’s new milk line would increase sales. Stock trading below book value shows buying opportunity.

What Happened: Milk line did not go over as well as expected. Too many other companies to compete with.

2011: Stock is trading below book and enterprise value as well. While this company is a small player, it is trading at very attractive prices and could also be an acquisition.

VZ-Verizon

Start: $33.13

End: $35.78 + $1.913 in dividends

Gain: 14%

What I Said: Iphone to Verizon would increase subscriptions. Great dividend play.

What Happened: The iphone will be coming to Verizon next year, a little later than expected. Optimistic investors start to take note and bid up stock.

2011: This will be the year of the Iphone and the make it or break it year for Verizon.

Honorable Mentions:

SYY-Sysco Gain 7%

ZOLT-Zoltek Gain 20%

ESRX-Express Scripts Gain 24%

MDRX-Allscripts Loss 6%

NKE-Nike Gain 31%

GMCR-Green Mountain Gain 20%

Overall 8 winners, 2 losers and an almost perfect honorable mention column. The ten stocks gained 329% for an average return of 32.9% which beat the S&P 500 for the second year in a row. Netflix was the big gainer returning 219%. Without the monster stock the return drops to 12.2%.

2009 I had an average return of 99.9% with three doubles.

I will have the 2011 picks up soon.

Good luck to all those who follow my picks and happy investing.

Top Ten Stock Update-Nine Months.

2010-10-03T17:35:00.000-04:00

I meant to do this at the end of June for a half year update but instead this nine month update will have to do.
Here is a summary of how the stocks are currently trading. Prices are as of close on September 30th, 2010. Returns are rounded to the nearest whole percent.

AAPL
Start $210.28
9 Mo $283.75
Divs $0
Total $283.75
Return 35%
Apple has rose steadily and is currently looking at overtaking ExxonMobil for the largest market cap. i continue to like this stock and think that it still could hit $300 by the end of the year.

AMT
Start $43.21
9 Mo $51.26
Divs $0
Total $51.26
Return 19%
American Tower has a great presence in other countries and is gaining from the continued growth of cell phones throughtout the world. Now is still a great time to get into the stock.

BRK-B
Start $65.72 (split adjusted)
9 Mo $82.68
Divs $0
Total $82.68
Return 26%
Berkshire Hathaway has rose nicely since the split. The split has made the stock affordable to many now and has helped the stock gain inclusion into several indexes and new funds. I would hold the stock if I owned it and would look to buy if it dips below $75.

DIS
Start $32.41
9 Mo $33.10
Divs $0
Total $33.10
Return 2%
Disney has a great slate of products and is diversifying away from its theme parks. The purchase of Marvel last year should help in its movie division as well as sequels from Cars and Monsters Inc. One of the best performing parts of Disney has been its ESPN segment. ESPN is the leader in sports television and its website generates a lot of traffic as well. Buy the stock now.

FMX
Start $48.31
9 Mo $50.73
Divs $.32
Total $51.05
Return 6%
Femsa is currently trading close to where it was at the start of the year. The deal from Heineken gave the company some much needed cash to help it fund the opening of more OXXO convenience stores. As Mexico's economy grows, so does this company. Buy this company for a great play on the international growth of Mexico.

GILD
Start $43.39
9 Mo $35.61
Divs $0
Total $35.61
Return -18%
Investors have knocked Gilead down over the year. The company is the biggest player in the HIV drugs market. The company still has promising drugs in the pipeline, some which will cut its ties with other drug partners. Do not be fooled by this company, it will continue to grow. Buy the stock.

MCK
Start $62.50
9 Mo $61.78
Divs $.48
Total $62.26
Return 0%
McKesson has raised their dividend this year and continues to trade at an attractive price. The company has a price to sales ratio of .15 and currently has more cash than debt on the books. Look to purchase shares of Mckesson around $60.

NFLX
Start $55.09
9 Mo $162.16
Divs $0
Total $162.16
Return 194%
I am very happy with my inclusion of Netflix in the top ten list. I am kicking myself for not actually buying shares for my own account. I would not recommend buying the stock now as it is too inflated and is due for a pullback. I believe someday Netflix will get bought out but it is unlikely at this price.

SMBL
Start $6.16
9 Mo $3.88
Divs $0
Total $3.88
Return -37%
Smart Balance was my speculative pick this year and it seemed to have burned me so far. The launch of Smart Balance milk did not go over as well this year as planned and the butter segment is under pressure from competitors. The stock is attractive as a buyout target at these levels.

VZ
Start $32.13
9 Mo $32.59
Divs $1.43
Total $34.02
Return 6%
Verizon continues to pay a great dividend while you wait for the Iphone to someday come to Verizon. The integration of Alltell has added subscribers and continues to help Verizon grow. Buy the stock and sit on it.

So through September, the stocks I picked have returned an average of 23.3% each. The top performer was Netflix, almost tripling. If you take out netflix from the picks the average return was 4.3%.

I look forward to tracking the stocks for the rest of the year and hope that I can get closer to last years return.

Why I Bought More Activision Shares.

2010-09-29T01:54:00.001-04:00

It seems these days that the video game sector is crowded with numerous companies. Each company has hit games series and seems to have a roller coaster in earnings based on game releases. Several companies are buying into social gaming. Other companies, like Activision are relying on recurring revenue from users’ monthly subscription fees. Currently eleven million users pay ten to fifteen dollars a month to play World of Warcraft, and Activision Blizzard owned property.

In the current quarter Activision is releasing the newest Guitar Hero game and Spider Man Shattered Dimensions. While neither of these games will break sales records they are both still valuable parts of the Activision franchise that can put out new games from the same series every year or two. The quarter after will have a new Tony Hawk videogame, which will feature skateboarding and snowboarding, a brand new James Bond game exclusively for the Nintendo Wii, a Bakugan game, and a Bloodstone game. This all important fourth quarter will also show the newest Call of Duty game and the expansion pack Cataclysm for World of Warcraft. Next year will have two more expansion packs for the recently released PC game Starcraft 2 and the much anticipated release of Diablo 3.

I have owned Activision shares for over eight months and recently doubled my position. I believe with the fourth quarter releases of Call of Duty Black Ops and Cataclysm for World of Warcraft, the company should blow out fourth quarter earnings estimates. The pre-buys remain strong for Activision games. On September 22nd Amazon listed the following titles in the top 100 of the video games category:

-Call of Duty Black Ops (XBOX) #7

-World of Warcraft Cataclysm Collector’s Edition (PC) #9

-Starcraft 2 (PC) #10

-Wipeout (Wii) #12

-Call of Duty Black Ops (PS3) #21

-Call of Duty Black Ops Hardend Edition (XBOX) #39

-World of Warcraft Cataclysm (PC) #43

-Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 (XBOX) #52

-Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 (PS3) #62

-Spider Man Shattered Dimensions (PS3) #81

-Starcraft Battlechest (PC) #89

Six of these eleven titles have not been released and represent the popularity of pre-ordering video games. Also on Amazon the video game category includes video games and hardware which means some of the top spots are taken by the systems themselves and the new motion sensitive hardware.

The future burns bright for this company as it has many new developments and possibilities ahead. The annual Blizzcon convention is in October and may come with news of the newest MMORPG game from Blizzard. Recently Activision signed a deal with the Bungie team, developers of the Halo game. This deal does not give Activision the rights to Halo but gives them the creative forces behind one of the best selling video game franchises of all time. In China, Netease has received written approval for the Wrath of the Lich King, which should in return gain new subscribers to World of Warcraft in this most populous country. Starcraft 2 is currently in open beta testing in Taiwan and Korea with 10,000 people sampling the game before they buy it.

One of the biggest growth items for the future is the continuing development of battle.net, which is a property of Activision Blizzard. Currently the home of the World of Warcraft, Starcraft, and Diablo, the site was recently overhauled to create a more user friendly experience. The company is trying to make it user friendly by offering one monthly fee to play all the games on the site. Someday hopefully Activision can get Call of Duty on to this site, which would provide additional monthly revenue from the bestselling game of all time. The CEO of Activision Bobby Kotick has already publicly said he is not happy with Microsoft’s XBOX live platform because it capitalizes on the success of Call of Duty and gains extra revenue from users. I think someday you will see a way to get Call of Duty on the battle.net platform. The possibility of a MMORPG Call of Duty or Starcraft game exists as well. The company can also come out with games to take advantage of the new camera and motion sensor controllers from both Sony and Microsoft.

The stock currently sits around $11 a share. Each share has about $2.32 in cash built in. If you subtract the cash from each share then based on analysts estimated .74 in earnings this year the multiple is 11.7 for 2010. The forward estimate for 2011 is dropped to 10.6 and looks even more affordable. The stock yields 1.4% at its current price. The company recently paid its first dividend and could always give some cash back to shareholders this way with increasing dividends. The company could always buy a smaller gaming company like Take Two. The CEO owns 3 million shares of Activision stock.

I expect the stock to slowly climb up and probably have small spikes around Blizzcon in October and the first week of November with the release of Call of Duty Black Ops. The stock could go as high as $18 in this time frame. I would look to buy around $10.50-$11.00 and would sell at $18.

*Disclosure-I Own Shares of Activision*

New Layout Coming Soon

2010-05-05T13:52:00.000-04:00

To all my readers and visitors,

I have been working at finding a new layout or possibly a new blog site that is better setup for stock analysis and linking between articles. The new layout will be coming soon along with many new stock picks from me and updates on old ones.

Thanks and Please check back soon,

Chris

New Layout/Comments, Regular Viewers Please Read

2010-01-22T01:08:00.000-05:00

I have been trying to update this blog more frequently than I have in the past.

Viewership has increased on this site. I am writing this asking for reactions from readers of this blog. I am working on changing the layout to make it easier to see the headlines and click through on them for the full articles. I would like to get people to comment more. I changed to a thumbs up, thumbs down for how people feel about the articles I post.

I would like to get back to stock picks with price tagets and track how I am performing. I also would like to show my portfolio and how it is performing.

I have received numerous emails congratulating me on my top ten picks for 2009. I appreciate all the kind words and encouragement I have received. I have also received emails asking for individual investment advice. I will continue to answer these emails and offer up advice. I do not charge for any of my advice and do it in my free time. I have not made enough money from this site to cash out and receive very little ad revenue.

A bit about me :

I am 23. I work as an assitant manager of a restaurant. I am currently trying to open my own sports bar. If anyone has money they would like to invest, I would love to hear from you.

Please leave comments with how you as the viewers would like to see from this site as far as content and layout.

Thanks for reading and keep investing.

Chris

Avatar on Imax - A Blogger's Takeaway on the Stock.

2010-01-22T00:54:00.001-05:00

So I finally saw Avatar yesterday. I saw the movie in 3-D at my local movie theater on Imax. The movie was playing at 3:00pm.
First I own shares of Imax in my real life portfolio.
We arrived at the theater early as the shows had been selling out. By three the theater was over three quarters full.

Now this is not the place for a review of the movie but rather a takeaway of how Avatar is impacting Imax stock.
The theater I went to sold out every showing for the first week and many showtimes the next weeks after. I was suprised to see strength like this in the middle of a weekday. The crowd was mostly adults and older people (excuse my language to any readers offended by older).

The movie in 3-D was amazing. I have not seen many movies in 3-D but this by far was the best I had seen. James Cameron has truly changed how viewers will see movies in the future.

I am so excited about the future of 3-D movies on Imax for the rest of this year. Alice in Wonderland, Toy Story, How to Train Your Dragon, and Shrek 4. These movies will likely not be as advanced as Avatar was but will bring significant revenue for Imax. Avatar will stay on screens until March 5th, when Alice in Wonderland opens in wide release.

When Imax reports earnings from this quarter, I believe they are going to well surpass analysts estimates. The company trades at over $13 right now. I still believe the stock is headed to $20 or likely to be bought out.

The significant amount of bos office revenue is likely to compete several cents in earnings per share for News Corp (NWS).

Potential Buyout Candidates

2010-01-18T01:55:00.000-05:00

With all the recent takeover deals announced I decided to take a look at some possible buyout targets still left. Some of the stocks are known takeover targets, others might be more speculative buyout targets. The prices listed are as of close on 1/15/10.

MELI-MercadoLibre $42.21

Potential Suitors: AMZN, EBAY

Why: Mercao Libre is the online retail leader in South and Latin America. The company allows users to sell items through auctions and fixed prices. The company grows as broadband connections become more prominent in emerging markets. The internet penetration is just over 30% right now. The company is in 12 countries. The company also has Mercado Pago, which is similar to Paypal. Ebay already owns over 18% of the company so they become the likely acquirer. Amazon is a potential buyer to gain market share in countries it is not as strong in.

Why Not: Ebay could be just fine owning a piece of the company as it similarly does with Craigslist. Partial ownership can keep it less exposed to smaller country’s instability and government regulations.

HANS-Hansen Natural $40.45

Potential Suitors: KO, PEP, DPS

Why: One of the best performing stocks of the last decade, Hansen Natural has always had takeover rumors. Coca-Cola recently took over the distribution of Monster energy drinks, Hansen’s leading product. Coca-Cola got rid of its distribution of Rock Star, which Pepsi took over. I believe that this sets up well for Coca-Cola to test drive the product before it buys it. Dr Pepper Snapple is also a possible suitor as it is not strong in the energy drinks category.

Why Not: Hansen could possibly expand itself by buying out a smaller company such as National Beverage, Jones Soda, or Big Red.

IMAX-IMAX $13.14

Potential Suitors: CNK, RGC, DIS, SNE

Why: Imax is likely to be bought out by a larger company looking to push into the upcoming digital television boom. Sony has a partnership with the company coming for a digital channel. Disney has acquired lots of companies recently. The company trades at a market cap below a billion dollars and is affordable to a large company.

Why Not: Imax has had a hard time earning a profit over the years and could turn some companies away. The company turned down a buyout offer several years ago and is likely to turn one down again.

CIDM-Cinedigm Digital Cinema

Potential Suitors: IMAX, SNE, GOOG, LGF, CNK, RGC

Why: The company currently brings large sporting events to the big screen and concerts from around the world as well. The company also owns an advertising company that shows ads on the big screen before feature presentations. The company is very valuable as theaters continue to convert theaters to digital and more concerts and sporting events are added to the big screen.

Why Not: The company is small and not very noticeable in the larger market. With a market cap of $38 million, it seems small and unlikely to be acquired in this market.

NFLX-Netflix $50.90

Potential Suitors: AMZN, MSFT, GOOG

Why: Netflix has been rumored for years to be under Amazon’s watch. I recently wrote in my Top Ten Stocks for 2010 that I believe the company will be bought out in the next two years. As Movie Gallery and Blockbuster continue to shut down stores, Netflix remains the winner by offering movies through the mail at a fixed monthly price. The company could be acquired for over its $2.75 billion market cap and only has a couple hundred million dollars in debt, which is small for a growing company. I like to think that a deal could bring around $75 a share for the company or the equivalent in stock of the acquirer.

Why not: I believe a buyout is likely to be turned down by Netflix. The CEO Reed Hastings is very confident in his company and continues to grow and expand into digital content.

UA-Under Armour $27.99

Potential Suitors: NKE, VFC, Adidas, LULU

Why: Under Armour is a major player in athletic apparel, and continues to grow and expand into more and more categories. The company is very valuable to a larger apparel company such as Nike, Adidas, or a clothing conglomerate such as VFC, which owns Wrangler, Lee, North Face, and Vans. The shares have traded as high as $66 over its public life and would likely be acquired for $50 or more.

Why Not: The company can continue to expand on its own by opening more retail outlets and entering new markets. The company could also acquire an apparel company.

KNOT-The Knot Inc. $10.04

Potential Suitors: IAC, MSFT, NWS, GOOG

Why: The Knot is the leading online source for those getting married soon. The company has also expanded into housing and baby advice for new couples. The company also releases magazines in their various fields. The company makes lots of money from ads on the site and through the magazine and through selling the products. Wedding don’t seem to be something that will go away and something people are willing to spend money on no matter what kind of economy we have going. The company comes with no debt and could pay off nicely for an acquirer.

Why Not: The company bought a smaller company that was on facebook called weddingbook to expand its social media profile. The company could continue to grow by acquiring others and may remain content on its own.

JSDA-Jones Soda $0.61

Potential Suitors: KO, PEP, DPS, FIZZ, HANS, Big Red, COT

Why: Jones Soda currently has a bid of $0.30 a share from privately held Big Red. I think that the offer will be raised or someone else will come in with a higher bid. Jones Soda had over $30 million in revenue last year. The company operated with a loss but could be turned profitable with better run management and a better distribution system. I think a move by Hansen Natural here could be the best bet as they could grow in the energy drink market and juice market.

Why Not: Well, a deal is likely but at what price. The deal at $0.30 still needs to be voted on by shareholders and could still be rejected.

PBH-Prestige Brand Holdings $7.80

Potential Suitors: PG, JNJ, CHD, Major Drug Companies

Why: The buyouts of Chattem and Bare Essentials recently are proof that companies still love over the counter products that can generate free cash flow. This company has some boring brands like Clear Eyes, Chloraseptic, and Comet that are not market leaders in categories but brands that people know. The acquisition would be cheap for an acquirer at a market cap of under $400 million and similar debt amounts.

Why Not: Dipping in to non market leaders could be risky. Many of the company’s brands were bought from other large companies who wanted to get rid of them in the first part.

LGF-Lions Gate Entertainment $5.48

Potential Suitors: SNE, NWS, DIS, SNI, DISCA

Why: Lions Gate has produced some good movies and owns the valuable Saw franchise, Tyler Perry movie franchise, Mad Men and Weeds television rights. The company also beat several bidders for the Television Guide channel. A larger company could help it finance more pictures a year and make the company more profitable.

Why Not: Movie studios aren’t exactly trying to acquire others. Many are struggling to produce blockbusters on their own and wondered about their own failures.

ETFC-E Trade Financial Corporation $1.84

Suitors: TROW, AMTD, SCHW, Edward Jones

Why: E Trade has a good online trading model and a nice following of users. The company got caught up in bad loans and will likely only survive with a buyout. This provides a great opportunity from a larger firm to double their number of subscribers by taking on some debt.

Why Not: The company has almost $12 billion in debt and currently operates at a loss.

TR-Tootsie Roll $26.97

Potential Suitors: HSY, KFT, Cadbury, Nestle

Why: Tootsie Roll has grown nicely over the last several years and has valuable brands that could be a nice fit to a larger company.

Why Not: The Kraft buyout of Cadbury is likely to get some more bids possibly from Hershey and could keep companies away from making any large purchases.

SAM-Boston Beer $48.20

Potential Suitors: BUD, TAP, Heineken, Ambev, SAB Miller

Why: The market for beer makers is hot right now. Heineken just bought the Femsa Cerveza unit to push into emerging markets. United States is the number one beer market by profits and Boston Beer is one of the largest craft beers in the country. The market cap is under $750 million and could probably be bought for just over a billion. This could be a cheap buy in a high takeover sector.

Disclosure: I own stock in IMAX.

Imax Adds Another Blockbuster in 2010.

2010-01-15T15:36:00.001-05:00

Yesterday an annoucement came from Imax, Marvel Entertainment, and Paramount.
The annoucement was that Iron Man 2 would be released with its wide release onto Imax screens.

Iron Man 2 will be released May 7th, 2010. Currently Imax has Shrek 4 coming to screens on May 21st, 2010. This means Iron Man 2 will only be on screens exclusively for two weeks. This is a great opportunity for the company though as it will for sure sell out screenings of this highly anticipated blockbuster movie.

New 2010 Lineup:

Alice in Wonderland-March 5th

Hubble 3D-March 19th

How to Train Your Dragon-March 26

Iron Man 2-May 7

Shrek Forever After-May 21

Toy Story 3-June 18

Twilight:Eclipse-June 30

Inception-July 16

Harry Potter and Deathly Hollows-November November 19

Tron-December 17

The first half of the year has filled out faster than any other year in Imax history. The company still has plenty of opportunity to add movies in wide release to the second half of the year.

I went through releases for the end of 2010 to see which movies could potentially be added to the lineup.

The Expendables-August 13

Resident Evil 3D-September 10

Saw VII 3D-October 22

The first movie is action packed and the second two are in 3D which will likely become a mainstay for the rest of the year. Many other movies need release dates and could fit into that empty August and September slot.
Imax was one of my Top Ten Stocks for 2009.
I own shares of Imax.

Femsa and Heineken Deal Good For Both Parties

2010-01-15T14:49:00.000-05:00

Recently it was announced that Heineken would acquire the beer division of Mexican company Fomento Economico Mexicano, better known as Femsa. Femsa operates in three segments: Femsa Cerveza, Coca Cola Femsa, and Femsa Comerico. The company has been looking to get rid of the beer unit and has decided on Heineken as the suitor.

Heineken, long thought to be the second most likely acquirer behind SAB Miller, will acquire the company in an all stock deal and will take over all debt for this division that Femsa previously had. The all stock deal will make Heineken the second largest shareholder in Heineken, behind the family which still owns 50%. Femsa will own 20% of Heineken. The deal is valued at $7.6 billion including debt, which breaks down to two times 2008 sales for the unit.

What Heineken Gets From the Deal:

-Heineken strengthens in the emerging Latin America market.

-Heineken will begin making its flagship product directly in Mexico, which will increase production in Mexico and into United States

-The number two beer company in Mexico, behind Groupo Modelo, which has a 43% market share in Mexico. Mexico is the number four country in beer profits in the World.

-Makes Heineken a major player in Brazil. Brazil is the second largest beer market in terms of profits. Femsa had a market share of 9% in Brazil before the deal.

-Heinken already imported Femsa Cerveza brands into the United States. Losing out on this deal would of potentially cost itself revenue down the road

-Heineken will have 40% of its operations in growing markets after the deal

-Two major deals in three two years, after its acquistion of Socttish & Newcastle in 2008, position the company across several continents with plenty of room for growth

What Femsa Gets From the Deal:

-Femsa will own 20% of Heineken after the deal. This will be similar to how Altria owns part of SABMiller.

-Femsa gains two board seats on Heineken

-The ability to focus on two core groups: Coca Cola Femsa and Femsa Comerico.

-The ability to borrow against ownership of Heineken for cash for acquisitions and Oxxo openings.

It appears as though Heineken is the biggest gainer here in the growing acquisition among the beer market. Femsa gets what it wants out of the deal other than a lack of cash. Femsa will be opening Oxxo convenience stores at a pace of three per day in 2010.

I recently picked Femsa as one of my top ten stocks for 2010.

I do not own stock in either company.

Netflix Newest Title: 28 Days Later Comes Your Rental

2010-01-09T00:44:00.001-05:00

I have been a Netflix (NFLX) subscriber for over three years. During that span I have watched new and old movies. The movies have been from all studios and of all genres. Netflix has now decided that I should watch some old flicks from Time Warner (TWX) before I am able to rent new ones.

An agreement signed by Netflix and TIme Warner will make new Time Warner released movies unavailable to Netflix subscribers for four weeks. Time Warner hopes that this move increases its initial sales of new titles. Netflix by signing this deal will have more titles of each movie after the four week waiting period. Netflix will also have more streaming online content from Time Warner.

Netflix CEO Reed Hastings has said in several interviews that he wants to push further into online content, but at what cost. The company will have cheaper costs for Time Warner movies, but will likely not pass on savings to subscribers. Renters who only rent new titles will be scrambling elsewhere to see the latest movies.

Netflix competitor, Redbox (owned by Coinstar-CSTR) continues to pick up steam with its $1 new release rentals. Blockbuster has installed rental kiosks at several locations across the nation as well. I believe in Reed Hastings and think that online content is valuable. The system had been working for Netflix without this deal. More studios are likely to come after Netflix and want similar deals.

I still believe in Netflix and will continue to be a subscriber. I hope that the company does not leave its main by mail rental operation in the dust while it becomes an online streaming machine.

Recently I picked Netflix as one of my Top Ten Stocks for 2010. I still believe the company will outperform the S&P 500 and possibly be bought out this year. I believe the shares will suffer a pullback now. If the stock drops below $45, I would look at buying again. I would also look at shares of Coinstar, as they could benefit short and long term from this announcement.

Top Ten Stocks for 2010

2010-01-07T17:19:00.002-05:00

Below is the list of my top ten stock picks for 2010.
All start prices listed are December 31st, 2009.
The ten picks are my attempt to outperform the S&P500.

For a review of my 2009 picks go here: Review of 2009

My 2009 results were amazing, and I can not guarantee that type of return this year.

S&P500 2009 End: $1115.10

2010 Picks in Alphabetical Order.

AAPL-Apple

Start: $210.28

Why: I hate picking Apple as a top ten stock because it is one of the best performing stocks of the last decade. The company will grow in 2010. Several analysts even predict that the company will beat earnings estimates all four quarters. The company has a history of beating earnings and the more I think about this, I think it is a really likely event. The highly anticipated tablet will make its debut this coming year, barring any setbacks. The anticipation of the tablet is already growing and will increase. As long as Steve Jobs remains healthy, look for an easy play here.

AMT-American Tower

Start: $43.21

Why: American Tower is trading close to its fifty two week high and has plenty of room to play. As the Smartphone and wireless market grows, companies will need to license towers, which will benefit American Tower. American Tower generates revenue just by leasing its towers out. The company owns towers overseas and will continue to acquirer smaller companies to dominate every country it enters.

BRK.B-Berkshire Hathaway B Shares

Start: $3288.00

Why: This seems like an easy pick, banking on Warren Buffett, the master of investing. The once beloved Berkshire traded at 5,000 back in 2007. While I don't see it approaching that level, I do see it going back up to 4,000 or that area. The investments the company holds remain strong as do its owned businesses such as Dairy Queen, Geico, Fruit of the Loom, Netjets, and many others. The company announced that for the first time it would be splitting its stock. This would price the company at around $66 a share. This will make the stock affordable to many who could not touch it before and will also help it gain entrance into mutual and index funds that it could not before. After the split, the stock will see a nice increase, and will beat the S&P 500, which it is not a part of.

DIS-Disney

Start: $32.41

Why: Disney's acquisition of Marvel made me really believe in this company again. The company has a strong slate of 2010 movies like Toy Story 3, Cars 2, and Iron Man 2. The televeision segment remains strong and will grow with its ability to turn Marvel characters into animated television shows aimed at boys. ESPN continues to be the dominant leader in sports coverage on television and online and will help with ad revenue for the company. Look for Disney to start out strong with the Marvel acquisition and waste no time announcing cartoons and movies with the characters.

FMX-Fomento Mexicano

Start: $48.21

Why: Fomento Mexicano is my foreign play for 2010. The company, better known as Femsa, operates in three main segments: Coca-Cola (KO) Femsa, Femsa Cerveza, and Femsa Comerico. The company operates in Mexico, South America, and Central America. The company is currently exploring options to sell its beer unit to focus on the other two segments. This would give the company cash to acquire companies and expand into other countries. The company has also announced plans to open 850 Oxxo stores, the convenience store/gas stations, that operate in Mexico. The company should outpace the S&P 500 in 2010.

GILD-Gilead

Start: $43.39

Why: Gilead, trading near its fifty two week low is a great play on the medical boom likely to happen in 2010. The company is the premier HIV pill player. Gilead's pipeline remains strong and it continues to make cocktail drugs that are more profitable. In the works is a quad drug that would combine all Gilead owned drugs and cut its dependance on other companies. Tamiflu, licensed to Roche (RHHBY.PK), sales will remain strong and help out on the cash flow side. The company has a cystic fibrosis drug coming to the market soon.

MCK-McKesson

Start: $62.50

Why: McKesson is a great play on the medical industry. McKesson operates in many segments: pharmacy management, drug distribution, hospital software, and many others. The stimulus bill from 2009 still has money allocated for hospitals to switch to electronic software. McKesson is one company that will benefit from this. The company with a market cap of over $16 billion is also a potential acquirer for a major pharmacy company.

NFLX-Netflix

Start: $55.09

Why: Several analysts believe Netflix will be bought out in 2010. I do believe that Netflix will be acquired, although it may have to be hostile. I don't see Netflix wanting to give in to any acquirer as the company believes it has more growth to come on its own. I believe the company will be bought out by mid 2011. Potential suitors include Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple, and Google (GOOG). Any of these giant companies would love to have this amazing brand as part of its ever expanding portfolio of products. Netflix could attempt to expand on its own through an acquisition like Gamefly, the online game rental company. Either way look for the stock to outperform the S&P500.

SMBL-Smart Balance

Start: $6.16

Why: Smart Balance, best known for its butter, is a player in the butter, milk, peanut butter, sour cream, popcorn, cheese, and mayonnaise industries. The company is aimed at health conscious people, which grow in numbers every year. The stock is a good way to play organic growth. The company's new milk brand is being expanded into more stores. The company trades below book value and has very manageable debt. With a market cap of under four hundred million, this stock has room to run and will increase sales in 2010.

VZ-Verizon

Start: $33.13

Why: Verizon, with its acquisition of Alltell finally has everything going for it. The company grows with its partnership with the Droid phone. The company will gain many subscribers when Apple's new Iphone is made for Verizon customers. Many people are only with AT&T (T) because of its iPhone partnership. The stock yields over five percent and also has some pretty good commercials going for it too.

Honorable Mention:

SYY-Sysco
ZOLT-Zoltek
ESRX-Express Scripts
MDRX-Allscripts
NKE-Nike
GMCR-Green Mountain Coffee Roasters
The honorable mention stocks includes two more plays (MDRX, ESRX) with McKesson in the electronic medical records which I believe will be dominant in 2010. I did not want to pick more than one for 2010 and went with McKesson since it is more diversified.

Disclosure: I do not own any of the stocks mentioned as of writing. An account I manage owns SYY and VZ. I will be looking at adding several of these stocks over the next week.

Buy Stocks for $3 a Trade.

Review of Top Ten Stocks for 2009.

2010-01-04T20:07:00.005-05:00

Back in January 2009, I posted a list of my top ten stock picks for 2009.The original article can be found here: seekingalpha.com/article/113173-ten-stock-picks-for-2009Start prices are January 1, 2009 and end prices are from December 31, 2009.The results and recommendations can be found here:

IMAX
Start $4.48
End $13.35
Gain 198%
What I Said: Strong lineup with Christmas Carol, Watchmen, Star Trek, Transformers 2, and Avatar.
What Happened: Great results from all movies on Imax. Star Trek, Transformers 2, and Avatar have sold out many theaters during their releases
2010: Avatar continues to dominate in theaters as it sells out every time slot at almost every theater. The 2010 slate of openings includes Alice in Wonderland, Hubble 3D, How to Train Your Dragon, Shrek Forever After, Toy Story 3, Twilight Eclipse, Inception, and Tron. More movies will be announced but this is the largest and most promising lineup. The announcement I followed the closest was Twilight: Eclipse. This movie will sell out every screen for opening weekend and beyond. The stock will continue to move upwards especially when earnings are released from the most recent quarter. Hold the stock if you have it, if not look for any drop to $12 to buy in.

JNJ
Start $59.83
End $64.41 plus $1.93 in dividends
Gain 11%
What I Said: Great blue chip play down from its 52 week high. I also said the dividend would be increased which happened. The stock now pays out .49 a quarter, up from .46 previously.
What Happened: The stock currently sits at $1 shy of its 52 week high and continues to rise as the healthcare sectore looks strong.
2010: Johnson and Johnson will continue to be a good blue chip stock. Its days of strong growth are gone but a 3% dividend is being paid and the company acquires companies to increase its cash flow. I would hold the stock if you have it and collect the nice dividend.

HANS
Start $33.53
End $38.40
Gain 15%
What I Said: New partnership with Coca-Cola to distribute would boost earnings and overseas presence and would eventually lead to a buyout of the entire company.
What Happened: The stock climbed up 15% and is increasing its presence in several European markets. The company strongly lags Red Bull overseas but continues to gain. Coca Cola gave up its deal to distribute Full Throttle to be able to distribute Monster, so they obviously believe in the growth.
2010: I continue to think that this is one of the strongest guaranteed buyouts in the future. Coca Cola is pretty much testing out the market and overseas growth of the company before they buy it. Continue to accumulate shares under $35.

ATVI
Start $8.64
End $11.12
Gain 29%
What I Said: The results from Christmas quarter should be good. New Guitar Hero and Call of Duty games will sell well.
What Happened: Call of Duty game broke sales records.2010: The stock is still down from its 52 week high. The company still has a World of Warcraft expansion, a new Diablo game, and the much anticipated new Starfox game. It's hard to think that the stock won't be up at the end of 2010.
2010: Buy any shares below $12

MO
Start $15.03
End $19.68 plus $1.32 in dividends
Gain 40%
What I Said: The stock trades at 5x earnings and yields over eigh percent.
What Happened: The company increased its payout even more and currently yields seven percent. Throughout the year the company found ways to continue to make money as less people smoke. The strenghth of SABMiller was good as well.
2010: The stock will continue to raise its dividend as it is a cash making machine. Also look for another acquisition which the company loves making. The stock makes a great long term blue chip dividend stock

DNDN
Start $4.58
End $26.25
Gain 473%
What I Said: Speculative stock that will either blow up or blow up in my face.
What Happened: The stock shot up after results of Provenge and the recommendation from a panel of nine to approve the drug.
2010: May 1st, 2010 is the current FDA approval or non approval date. The stock will trade between $25 and $30 probably before that day. If not approved, the stock will lose almost all its value. If approved the stock will shoot up nicely and may lead to a partnership or a buyout.

GLW
Start $9.53
End $19.50 plus $.20 in dividends
Gain 107%
What I Said: Company continues to ride the flat screen television boom
What Happened: Flat screen televisions sold well as did the glass that Corning markets. The stock finally traded at a more realistic price earnings ration then 2008.
2010: The stock is on several investors top ten stock picks for 2010 lists. It won't be on mine because I don't want any repeats but if I could Corning would be there again. The stock will gain as long as televisions sell. The stock also will be more in demand for fiber optics as I said last year.

DE
Start $38.32
End $54.09 plus $1.12 in dividends
Gain 44%
What I Said: Stock should ride the infrastructure boom and a great Obama play.
What Happened: The stock rose along with the rest of the agriculture sector as the stocks bounced back to 2008 prices.
2010: The stock will always be a great play on agriculture and infrastructure.

MPEL
Start $3.17
End $3.36
Gain 6%
What I Said: New City of Dreams casino will increase market share.
What Happened: The market is still hesitant to get into a casino stock plus regulation on the number of visitors to Macau hurt the stock. The stock still gained but was my worst performing stock.
2010: I still like the stock as a long term play. Macau is the busiest casino city in the world and continues to increase. The number of casinos is limited due to licenses and this stock will gain due to that fact.

RIG
Start: $47.25
End: $82.94
Gain: 76%
What I Said: Screaming bargain trades at three times 2009 earnings and trades below book value.
What Happened: The oil market gained some strength and the stock came back to the $80 level and now trades above book value.
2010: The stock could come back to the $100 level as the hunt for oil increases and RIG will benefit from this search. I would look to buy at the $75 level if the stock hits it.

Overall all ten stocks were up. The stocks together were up 999% for a 99.9% gain average. Without the best performing stock, the ten still averaged 58% gains.Three of my stocks were doubles in a year.

For 2009:
Nasdaq up 44%
Dow up 18.8%
S & P up 23.5%
As you can see I beat all three indexes. Even without my multi bagger taken out investing in my top ten still would of beat any of the markets. Look for my 2010 pick later this week.

Disclosure: Long IMAX, ATVI, MO

Where the Wild Things Are Opens Solid on IMAX Screens

2009-10-20T14:10:00.003-04:00

Warner Brothers reported yesterday that Where the Wild Things Are made $3.1 million on IMAX screens from Friday through Sunday. The movie opened on 145 screens in the United States. This opening represents the biggest fall opening for an IMAX movie ever. The film contributed nine percent of the total box office revenue.

This is nice to see for another movie opening in wide release on IMAX screens. The company continues to sign movies and add to its slate.

Rounding out 2009 are three movies that should all contribute heavily to IMAX revenue. The first will be This Is It (The Michael Jackson Concert Footage Movie), A Christmas Carol, and Avatar.

This is it will be in theaters for a limited time only so it should have strong results each week it is in IMAX theaters. The movie is currently outselling New Moon for preordered tickets at theaters across the nation.

*Disclaimer-I own shares of IMAX in my Sogotrade account*

November 10th important date for Video Game sales and Activision.

2009-10-19T12:59:00.004-04:00

November 10th marks the release of Activision's Call of Duty : Modern Warfare 2.

Activision, with its recent merger with Blizzard, holds the video game rights to Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, World of Warcraft, Starcraft, and Diablo. The company also produces video games based on movies under license.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is the latest chapter in the first person game franchise. There have been numerous games released since the initial Call of Duty game was put out in 2004. The games are available on numerous platforms.

The last Call of Duty game (Call of Duty World at War) was released close to one year ago. The game sold over eleven million copies. The newest game will likely surpass that. My estimate for Modern Warfare 2 would be 15 million copies.

The game is already on the Amazon bestsellers list for several platforms. The XBOX 360 version of the game is currently number 5 and has been on the bestseller list for 145 days. The Playstation 3 version of the game comes in at number fourteen. The Prestige edition (includes real night vision goggles, art book, and a token to download the original Call of Duty) for XBOX 360 is currently number twenty one. This version of the game sells for $149.95 currently on Amazon. The Prestige Playstation 3 version of the game is at number thirty seven. The PC version of the game is number fifty five. The Hardened edition (includes art book and token to download the original Call of Duty) for XBOX 360 is number eighty. That version of the game sells for $79.99. Also on the bestseller list is Call of Duty: Modern Warfare for XBOX 360.
At a local Gamestop store, they have received over 250 preorders for the game. Gamers still have several weeks to preorder the game as well and I see that number jumping. In comparison Halo 3 had only seventy preorders at this particular Gamestop. Most Gamestops will be opening doors at midnight on November 9th to let gamers get to playing as soon as possible.

The game has sold over 2.2 million preorders. Activision has said this has been their highest preorder sales ever.

Activision recently released Guitar Hero 5 and Marvel Ulitmate Alliance 2.

The upcoming slate looks strong for Activision as well.

-DJ Hero and Band Hero both come out in time for the holidays and further expand the dominating music game genre that Activision is so strong in.
-Big League Sports is a new sports game exclusively for the Nintendo Wii.
-A new racing game called Blur.
-Interactive Tony Hawk game with motion controlled skateboard for the Nintendo Wii.

The biggest release next year will be Starcraft 2. The games is for PC and is the sequel to the popular Starcraft game. The game was amazingly successful in Asia where it is a part of the culture, providing reality television competitions. The game is already in the top 1000 on Amazon's video game list.

Activision Blizzard continues to be the leader in video games. The franchise releases widely popular games each year, especially in the current Christmas season. The brands included are Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, Starcraft, Diablo, Tony Hawk, Wolfenstein. Through licenses the company releases games of Spider Man, Transformers, Cabelas Hunting, Marvel Ultimate Alliance, X Men, Shrek, Madagascar, James Bond, and several others.

I currently hold shares of Activision in my Sogotrade account. The stock is at $12.50 today. When I wrote about the stock last year before Christmas the stock traded below $10. Once Mordern Warfare 2 is released the stock should run up nicely to $15. I think Activison (ATVI) could trade at $20 by 05/10.

If you don't have an online broker buy stocks for $3 each here.

Top Ten Stocks for 2009 Nine Month Update

2009-09-18T19:37:00.004-04:00

I meant to originally do this in July at the half way point but instead here is a nine month update on my top ten stock picks for 2009.

All ten stocks are positive on the year. Three have doubled in value. These results are counting 2009 dividends for JNJ, MO, GLW, and DE as well

JNJ +4%
HANS +4%
DE +19%
MO +26%
ATVI +37%
GLW +63%
RIG +82%
IMAX +101%
MPEL +118%
DNDN +534%

The average gain for the ten stocks so far this year is 98.8%.

Dendreon (DNDN) is the biggest gainer so far with a huge jump due to positive results from its prostate cancer drug.

If Dendreon is taken out the average gain is 50% for the stocks.

As the market begins to recover it takes time and research to find stocks that can break out. The ten stocks which I have identified have all turned positive. Three have doubled in value. Half of the stocks have gone up more than fifty percent in value.

The original post of my top ten stocks with reasons for picking can be found here:

http://stockworldpicks.blogspot.com/2009/01/my-top-10-stocks-for-2009.html

Please post comments about my top ten stocks as well as what you think the rest of the year has in store for them.

*Disclaimer-I own shares of Altria (MO) and Imax (IMAX) in real life*

Altria (MO) and Phillip Morris (PM) raise dividends

2009-09-17T20:34:00.003-04:00

Through the past year I have watched three companies which I own stock in cut their dividend payments. The three companies were GE, NWL, and PFE.

I was happy to see recently that Altria (MO) and Phillip Morris International (PM) currently both raised their dividends. It is nice to see companies with strong cash flows that are not afraid to raise payouts and reward shareholders.

*Disclaimer-I own shares of GE, NWL, PFE, MO, PM*

IMAX Looks to 2010 and 2011.

2009-09-17T20:17:00.004-04:00

This past week Imax announced two movies that will be shown on its large format screens in 2010 and 2011.

The two movies are Spider Man 4 and Tron.

Tron Legacy comes to Imax screens in December of 2010. The movie adds to a lineup that already includes:

Alice in Wonderland 3D
Hubble 3D
How to Train Your Dragon 3D
Shrek Forever After 3D

Spider Man 4 is the only movie slated for 2011 with a release date of May 6th of that year.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs opens this Friday followed by Where the Wild Things Are the month after that.

Imax also signed a new theater deal with China.

This year continues to shape up and be an amazing year for Imax.

COntinue to look at chances to buy this stock under $10 as it is headed up past $15.

*Disclaimer-I own shares of IMAX in my Sogotrade account*

Imax Adds to 2009 Lineup

2009-07-24T13:35:00.003-04:00

Yesterday Imax reported that it has added two movies to its 2009 slate.

The first movie is: Where the Wild Things Are

Where the Wild Things Are is based on a children's book. Max, the main character of the book is sent to bed without dinner and creates a fictional world of ferocious monsters. The monsters crown Max as their king in the forest where they live. The movie is directed by Spike Jonze, who previously directed Being John Malkovich, Adaptation, and several music videos. The movie stars Catherine Keener, Mark Ruffalo, James Gandolfini, Forest Whitaker, and Paul Dano. The movie is a live action adaption of the book. The movie will be released in Imax and conventional theaters on Ocotober 16th, 2009.

The second movie is: Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs is also based on a book but will be adapted in 3D animation. The movie is about an inventor who tries to make an invention that will change the world. The movie stars Bill Hader, Anna Faris, Andy Samberg, Bruce Campbell, Neil Patrick Harris, and Mr. T. The movie will be released in Imax and conventional theaters on September 18th, 2009.

How do these two movies impact Imax earnings?

Revenue-This year movies shown on Imax have contributed around eight percent of the total box office revneue of movies released. Transformers is around eight and a half percent currently and Night at the Museum was eight percent.
Where the Wild Things are should gross around $125 million in its theatrical run. I would guess five to eight percent of that would be on Imax Screens. That would mean $6.25 to $10 million. Transformers in perspective, just crossed the $40 million mark on Imax screens but it was a larger budget movie.
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs should gross around $80 million in its theatrical run. I would guess a higher percent since the movie is being shown in 3D which typically do better on IMAX screens (Monsters vs. Aliens). Seven to ten percent would be my guess which would represent a gross of $5.6 to $8 million on Imax screens.

Lineup-Imax has done well to secure big studio releases in 3D and conventional form which can generate more revenue than the documentaries shown on Imax screens. The 2009 Imax season has been very strong so far with Star Trek, Monsters vs. Aliens, Transformers 2, and Night at the Museum 2 posting strong box office results so far.
The rest of 2009 certainly looks strong with Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince coming soon to Imax. Other 2009 Imax movies include: A Christmas Carol and Avatar plus the aformentioned Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and Where the Wild Things are. There are still two gaps in 2009 release schedule that can be filled with movies to generate more revenue.

I recommended this stock previously and made it one of my top ten stocks for 2009. The stock has doubled since that period. I still remain optimistic about the stock and think it is headed towards $10-$12. This would be and additional seventeen plus percent gain on the stock price.
When results are released from the next quarter the stock could make a nice run that day. Buy some on any pullbacks. Anything below $8 would be a strong buy.

*Disclaimer-I own shares of Imax in my real life portfolio*

Imax Earnings

2009-05-08T00:02:00.003-04:00

Fourth Quarter 2009 Results were issued today by Imax corporation.
The results were positive.

-Operating Income was $2 million (vs. loss of $5.6 million last year)
-A loss of .06 per share (was loss of .25 last year)
-Theater network (Commercial) grows by 40%

The CEO still says that they will return to profitability in 2009.

Watchmen made an average of $92,000 per IMAX screen.
Monsters vs. Aliens made an average of $125,000 pe IMAX screen.

As of March 31, 2009 the backlog of IMAX is 190 theater systems.

Star Trek opens today and it is sold out for two locations by me already. Then it's Night at the Museum 2 opening after two weeks of Star Trek.
This company is going to make some money.

Shares are at $7.05 and are looking like they might break past the 52 week of $8.28. Buy Now.

Modern Warfare 2 Shaping up to be biggest anticipated game of year.

2009-04-27T16:18:00.003-04:00

Activision, a company which I own stock in, is releasing Modern Warfare 2 on November 10, 2009. The game will be the sequel to the widely sold Call of Duty 4:Modern Warfare. That game sold over 12 million copies. Those numbers made Modern Warfare 1 the most sold first person action game of all time.

MPEL Update

2009-04-17T16:07:00.003-04:00

I haven't been updating on this blog very much lately and thought I should update some of my top ten stocks.

Today MPEL is trading at $4.45 while I write this. When I mentioned it in my Top Ten Stocks for 2009 at the start of the year, it was trading at $3.17. That makes the stock up 40% currently.

There is still plenty of room to run. City of Dreams, the company's newest casino opens in June. The company is aiming at families with a new Hard Rock themed casino which will feature dealers dressed as rock stars. There also will be a dome theater that will feature chinese animated shows. City of Dremas will be the only new casino in Macau in the next two to three years so it should generate lots of buzz and lots of new visitors.

The stock traded around $15 in May of 2008. Look for the stock to retun to that level after the new casino opens. That would be over a double on this nice foreign stock play.

Bought More Shares of Imax Today.

2009-03-06T16:17:00.004-05:00

I upped my position in IMAX today before the weekend. Shows of Watchmen are sold out in my area and throughout the nation. The 12:01 am friday morning shows were all sold out throughout America. Watchmen will play on more screens than 300 did. The toal number is 124 screens domestically, and 29 screens internationally. Advance sales of Imax tickets for the movie were over $2 million before the first show took place this morning.

Imax.com has experienced increased traffic. You can watch several trailers on the site and buy tickets. Movietickets.com announced on Wednesday that one third of all Watchmen tickets sold were for Imax screens.

I bought today going into the weekend as I expect numbers to come out on Sunday. Look for this stock to move on Monday morning. Look for any pullbacks in the week and buy under $5. This stock has more great movies coming.

*Disclaimer-I own shares of IMAX in real life in my Sogotrade account.

Wal Mart Raises Dividend

2009-03-05T18:01:00.003-05:00

Wal Mart today announced they would be raising their dividend. The company will now pay out $1.09 annually. This is up from $0.95 for the past year. Sales were up at Wal Mart stores and Sams Club stores for the most recent month reported. International sales were down slightly due to currency exchanges. If not for the currency international sales would have also been up.

Wal Mart (WMT) is one of only two stocks in the Dow to have posted a positive gain in 2008. The stock is also one of only two Dow stocks to rise today.

The company looks great right now as it is saving Americans money and providing everything they need in one supercenter.

Look at Wal Mart shares to climb once again in 2009. My target $60 by 12/31/09.