Rugby and the Science of Strategy

Jonny says good bye

2011-12-14T16:01:00.001Z

Jonny's retired!! I suppose its not a big surprise really. He doesn't want to play Six nations knowing he will not make the World Cup in 2015. Although strange things have happened, remember Mike Catt!!!.

He is making way for other players to develop in time for the World Cup. Toby Flood is the now the obviously first choice for fly half. I would have said he was the first choice even at this world cup just gone, but Jonny picked ahead of him based on experience I assume.

I was happy for Jonny to be in the squad, but felt it would have worked better playing in the small pool games and as a replacement to change things around or defend a lead. He was still a better defensive fly half, but attacking wise Toby was much better. Every time they swapped around, Toby Flood improved the England play and they had to catch with the opposition.

In the quarter finals playing them both together was a huge mistake. Their reasoning I suppose was trying to develop a situation like in 2003 with Jonny and Catty. However Catty was a centre with Fly half experience. Toby was a fly half with centre experience, when the going got tough he would always drift back to his normal positioning. They said they played together at Newcastle in this partnership, however what did Newcastle win during this time, Nothing.

It always annoys me greatly when they play players out of position in the biggest games of their careers. In these intense pressure situation people with always revert to where they are most comfortable, as its the position they play in week in and week out. Its the position the train in every week as well. Then they get a few training sessions and they are expect to play in a different position in a pressured game like the quarter finals of the world cup. Guess what it doesn't work. I am sure this wasn't the only reason we lost, but it played its part.

I think its always better to play a person in their natural position even if this isn't your best player as when the pressure is on natural instincts kick in.

Back to Jonny. He will remind a English sporting legend and probably the most hated English rugby player in Australia forever. 2003 was a fantastic year. I am guessing he must now be the last of the 2003 squad to retire from international duty.

Oh I am forgetting Mike Tindall. I guess he hasn't retired, but I doubt he will ever get back in the squad.

England Women Victory

2011-12-02T14:50:00.001Z

So England women have beaten the World Champions New Zealand to clinch the series with 1 game left.

Congratulations and well done. 21-7 on Wednesday a good score.

Can someone in the England's men set up please take note!!!

More trouble at the RFU

2011-11-25T15:46:00.001Z

England Attack coach Brian Smith has resigned. Feedback from some of the players was he had no ideas. He asked them for their opinions and wrote them up on a board.

Well a I would have though a good coach would canvas his players and get them involved in the decision making.
get them to take ownership of the way they play.
Get an understanding of what it is like on the front lines in the modern game against these teams.

Some England players said it lack imagination and was lackluster. However, I believe England was the top try scoring nation in the 6 nations over the last two years. Won the 6 nations last year. Not that bad then!!

Feedback is important and should be accepted for what it is and that is a opinion of that person based on their perspective. Its not right or wrong.
It should be accepted and those involved develop from it to communicate better or improve their skills. It could have been an explanation as to why he ask for peoples ideas would have helped those giving the bad feedback.

RFU leaked report who benefits

2011-11-24T11:05:00.001Z

You have to wonder who benefits from a leaked report.
The players!! No its bad news for them.
The coaches! no!
The RFU management, yes. The leaked report firmly blames the players and coaches for the lack of success.
The leak really helps Rob Andrew out as many people been asking what he does! Why isn't he to blame.
What did Rob Andrew ever achieve as the Newcastle manager. Not a lot!!

Players will always negotiate about pay. We haven't heard both sides of the story and unlikely to now.
Yes I am sure some players are at fault but this leak doesn't help.
Will the players want to take part in a review again and give honest feedback. NO not if the RFU management use it shift the blame.

The England team and the RFU is suppose to the pinnacle of English rugby. Where as the premiership clubs are professional organisation the RFU is still run by amateurs. This does make sense. RFU management wouldn't last 5 minutes in a premiership club or any big company.

Time for a change within the very structure of the RFU. I would like the premiership clubs to create a new RFU and England team even if meant a few years of being out in the wilderness. It would long term be better for the game as the RFU is a shambles.

France v England 2008 6 nations

2008-02-01T13:54:00.001Z

Italy V England 2008 6 Nations

2008-02-01T13:53:00.000Z

6 nations Review 2008

2008-01-30T09:03:00.000Z

My 6 nations review.

So who is going to win it this year? Who will get the wooden spoon?

It looks to be the most open championship for some time due to the change in players and coaches/managers since the world cup.

I suspect that no team will be able to obtain the Grand Slam this year. It will all come down to the away games for the title hopefulls.

England are away at Scotland, Italy and France. With Wales and Ireland at home. My ambition for England is to come at least second this year. I believe that England should beat Wales at home and hopefully beat Ireland for the first time since 2003. I think that France away from home will be the crunch match for England.

I predict that France will win the championship overall, but not the Grand Slam I suspect they will slip up on one of their away games, potentially the first game against Scotland, as the French are notoriously slow starters in the 6 Nations. The Scots often catch people out at home with their defensive style of play that tends to grind the opposition down and frustrates them into errors.

Italy I believe will get the wooden spoon and Wales, Ireland and Scotland fighting out the 3rd,4th and 5th spot.

Ireland, bad World Cup and believe there will be a hangover from this performance through the 6 nations. There is obviously issues in the Irish team and these have yet to be dealt with properly.

Wales I believe under Gatland will be become a decent team again. However, not this year as it is too soon for the management to make a major effect on the performance on the team.

Scotland continue to make progress, but its slow progress at the moment. Good World Cup for Scotland, but can they build on it! They must be looking for at least a 3rd or 4th place finish to continue this progress.

Good luck everyone, lets show the Southern Hemisphere why our Rugby is the best.

England V Wales

2008-01-29T20:07:00.000Z

So the England team has been announced.

England: Iain Balshaw (Gloucester), Paul Sackey (Wasps), Mike Tindall (Gloucester), Toby Flood (Newcastle), David Strettle (Harlequins), Jonny Wilkinson (Newcastle), Andy Gomarsall (Harlequins); Andrew Sheridan (Sale), Mark Regan (Bristol), Phil Vickery (Wasps), Simon Shaw (Wasps), Steve Borthwick (Bath), James Haskell (Wasps), Lewis Moody (Leicester), Luke Narraway (Gloucester).
Subs: Lee Mears (Bath), Matt Stevens (Bath), Ben Kay (Leicester), Tom Rees (Wasps), Richard Wigglesworth (Sale), Dan Cipriani (Wasps), Lesley Vainikolo (Gloucester).

A few surprises. I fully expected to Tait in the squad so I am surprised that Balshaw he hasn't been playing that well for Gloucester have been picked instead. The reason being they needed a experience full back. Well I agree you do need an experienced full back but Tait should be playing in the center. If you needed a proper full back why wasn't Josh Lewesy picked in the first place. Ashton seems to have a thing for Balshaw as it was him who spotted Balshaw when he was 16 years old. It almost that he is trying to prove he was right all those years ago by picking him again.

Tindall playing center is no surprise either, another of Ashton's old bath crew. However, I will have to admit that Tindall has been in great form in recent months. Great to see Sackey and Strettle team up on the wingers, both of them have proved they can also defend as well as attack. So were does it leave Cipriani to play? replacement fly half for Jonny, replacement centre for Flood and Flood replace Jonny, replacement full back for Balshaw. Knowing Balshaw he will get injured after 30 minutes and so I guess this is where we will see Cipriani play.

Not a bad side, but not our best either still missing Harry Ellis at scrum half plus need a solid full back. Be interesting to see come the final game against Ireland who is still in the squad!!!

So that leaves the Welsh side.

Wales: Lee Byrne (Ospreys); Shane Williams (Ospreys), Sonny Parker (Ospreys), Gavin Henson (Ospreys), Mark Jones (Scarlets); James Hook (Ospreys), Mike Phillips (Ospreys); Duncan Jones (Ospreys), Huw Bennett (Ospreys), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Ian Gough (Ospreys), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Jonathan Thomas (Ospreys), Martyn Williams (Blues), Ryan Jones (capt, Ospreys).
Replacements: Matthew Rees (Scarlets), Gethin Jenkins (Blues), Ian Evans (Ospreys), Alix Popham (Scarlets), Gareth Cooper (Gloucester), Stephen Jones (Scarlets), Tom Shanklin (Blues).

He has basically picked the whole Ospreys team where he can and filled in the blanks with the other teams where necessary. I assume this is to bring some level of compatibility to the side and knowledge of playing together. At the moment they have looked the best welsh team in the European competition. May be he is hopingt this well help the team gel quickly together and try and transfer team understanding to a national side. Strategically this is an interesting decision, I wonder how many of the Osprey moves and plays he is bring with them to game on Saturday.

Sun Tzu said "If you know others and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know others but know yourself, you win one and lose one; if you do not know others and do not know yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle."

I believe that by playing a majority of the Osprey's team he is making sure they know them selves. So how well do they know their enemy? Not sure anyone knows how England well play at the moment, not even Gatland. This could be England's biggest advantage in this competition or their biggest weakness as they have yet to gel into a team. I would suggest they have a reasonable idea after the World Cup and 2 weeks training together. At least they will know what to expect from the Welsh side if the play like the Osprey's play. Again they could play a totally different game, however then what is the point of picking the squad for all he same team?

I predict England to win more due to the home advantage and the lack of preparation from the Welsh squad together under the new management. This is more down to time than talent with regards to the new management.

From there another game against Italy should build the confidence and allow the team to form properly unless injuries prevent a similar squad being picked again. After Italy the big one, France in Paris. The French well be after revenge but they will also be in the midst of rebuilding their team!!!

More Heineken cup rugby at the weekend.

2008-01-23T09:51:00.000Z

I was pleased to see Gloucester, Saracens and London Irish to going through to represent the English clubs. I am not sure how far they will manage to go in the rest of the competition however. I was surprised to see Wasps collapsed to Munster, I really thought they would put up a better show in that game. They were missing however the likes of Flutey and Sackey how have been instrumental in game plan so far this year. Flutey has been involved in some of their best moves of the season and it could be seen what a loss it was not have him playing.

Although Leicester were already out of the cup I was pleased to see put on a good performance and stop Lenister progressing in the competition. Leicester seem to play much better with Rabeni in the centre than with Ollie Smith. I think Ollie is a great play and will continue to improve, but so is Rabeni and he has the confidence and experience we need in the big Heineken cup games. I haven’t seen Tuilagi play for a while, and can’t find any news on him on the internet either. Is he injured or just out of favour?

The Heineken Cup and Challenge Cup games really get the excitement warmed up for the 6 nations. I have got a ticket to the England V Wales game on the 2nd February. I am hoping for another record win just like before the world cup. Be very interesting to see who is picked for both teams and how Warren Gatland shapes and manages his new team. No surprise that Gareth Thomas hasn’t been picked for Wales. He may be a great playe but he seems to be the a disruptive influence and main reason behind Welsh sides slip from Grand Slam Champions to continual wooden spoon prospects.

England 32 man squad

2008-01-10T10:25:00.000Z

The 32 man training squad has been announced and there are a few surprising names left out and few inclusion as well. Josh Lewsey out and Andy Farrell out (not sure if this is a surprise). Hodgson in , Balsaw in, Tindall and Noon in???

So why put some of our promising talent put in the Saxons instead. All I can think is that 32 man squad will only actually become 15 starting and 7 subs, leaving 10 of those players with out a game completely. For a number of those players, a game in the Saxons wouldn't prove anything about their performance or ability. We all know what Charile Hodgson can do, we all know how Mark Cuteo can play. However, for players like Lamb, Varndell, Hipkiss and O Smith a game in the Saxons is a chance too shine. It's a chance to gain experience of the England setup, the preparation and the match day. Aston could put the likes of these players in the 32 man squad, but are they actually going to get any reasonable game time. Possibly not. Being named in the 32 man squad is all about perceived status and not necessarily player development etc.

The other big point was that Vainikolo was named in the starting squad. Again as before I doubt he needs the experience of the Saxons and playing in international games he has that from his league days. As a winger as well I would have said it was the easiest position to switch from League to Union. I remember Jason Robinson receiving similar press saying it was unfair on others etc etc. I think Jason proved everyone wrong. He still took a couple of years to fully adapt, but the best place for him to do this was in the England squad. I think the same will be the said for Vainikolo. I don't believe this was the same for Farrell however, as he switched codes too late and the positions he played in didn't allow for such an easy transition, therefore he need the game time to build up his experience.

The truth will come out once the starting 15 and the bench is picked. At that point we will see Ashton's real strategy and can see if he is moving the game forward or doing an Andy Robinson.

The point the really stuck my was the amount of talent coming through the England squad. The Saxons team is very strong and by it's self could beat a some of the other 6 nations full international squads.

Christmas games

2008-01-01T11:51:00.000Z

Caught a few games over the holiday season.

Firstly saw Sharks v Tigers with the Sharks winning 20-14. Leicester suffered from some poor goal kicking and lack of a finishing touch to some good moves. Leicester seem to be stuttering at the moment and can't quite bring it all together at the moment. The BBC match report says they, "lacked precision". This just about sums it up at the moment and seems to be the same problem they had against Toulouse the week before. I think the change in coach and players will have something to do with it. It will take some time for them all to gel together. Can't be good for Andy Goode to hear all the rumors about Juan Martín Hernández
joining at Fly Half.

Wasps v Bath. I hate to say it but Wasps are looking good this season. They have started some games extremely well and almost demolished the opposition in the first half. However, they do seem to have a tendency at the moment of taking their foot off the gas and let the opposition back in the second half. They allowed Clermont back in the game in the heniken Cup and nearly let Bath back in the game if it wasn't for Paul Sackey's try saving tackle near the end of the game.

At the end of the game in the post match interview Lawerence D looked very tried and as if he had enough. So it didn't come as much of surprise to hear the announcement of his retirement only a few days later.

The Return match

2007-12-18T14:26:00.001Z

I always thought it would difficult for Leicester to win in France and it seems I was right. There was a brief glimmer of hope in the first part of the second half as Tigers put together a good passage of play. Ultimately it wasn't to be and in the end we couldn't get the losing bonus point, which we probably be all important at the end of the tournament group stages.

Saw some of the WASP v Clermont game as well. That was a crazy match, I thought wasps had it all tied up, but then Clermont came back and back at them too secure the all important losing bonus points, which wasps threw away the week before in France.

Cipirani is getting better all the time as a fly half. Some touches of pure genius, however followed by some poor decisions in the second half. However, he gets better all the time and the Heineken Cup is a great proving and learning ground for him when looking towards playing internationally. Better he makes such mistakes now and learns in time for the internationals, than learns in a crunch 6 nations or world cup game. In comparison Toby Flood doesn't get this level of competition at Newcastle and must be asking him self if he should be moving on. He will always be in Jonny's shadow at Newcastle, plus will only ever likely to get to play in the second rate Europe cup. If he wants to be a contender for the fly half position I suggest he has to be in a team that plays in the Heineken cup every year.

Look how much of a better player Paul Sackey has become from playing at wasps. To get better you need to be playing better competition. Thus you need to play against the best players club rugby has to offer.

Leicester v Toulouse

2007-12-11T20:14:00.000Z

Watched the game on the telly this weekend. It was a very tense affair between the two teams and seem to come down to who made the least mistakes. Obviously, Toulouse gifted the the ball to Ollie Smith and he went in for the try. Also they gave away a number of penalties that Andy Goode was able to slot away. It seem to be a case of playing to the conditions, Leicester did and Toulouse tried to throw it about and create something which led to the try.

Leicester seem to be missing back up for the scrum half and fly half positions at the moment, Andy Goode had to struggle on and Ben youngs had to come in at scrum. I have only seen him play at centre before.

Varndell played well again and seems to be growing in confidence every week at the moment. I really believe he will be back in the England Squad for the 6 nations.

On the question of England how much longer is it going to take to appoint a new Manager?

Leicester vs Sale & Ba-Bas Vs South Africa

2007-12-04T15:05:00.000Z

Leicester won at the weekend put I am not sure how much Sale wanted to win the game in the first place, as they left Andrew Sheridan out of the squad. Interesting that at half time Leicester were only 10-6 up and at half time the coach changed tactics. Second half the tigers came out and finished off the sharks 32-8. It was obvious that Loffreda is a very good tactician as he showed in the world cup. He decided the game needed changing at half time and was proved to be right. As said in previous blog entries I think Loffredas tactical knowledge combined with Tigers strength and depth in squad will propel Tigers to more trophies this season.

Ba-Bas beat South Africa! Was it really a surprise, if you look at the Ba-bas side it was one of the best line ups they have had for a long time and South Africa was missing some it players post world cup. I think the South Africa team will go the same way the England team did after they won the world cup. Lots of similarities, both sides won through a very disciplined defensive and a strong kicker. Both Managers left after they won the world cup. A number of senior players retired, or in the case of South Africa have come to play in Europe instead. I reckon come the tri nations New Zealand and Australia will both beat South Africa.

Next weekend Leicester vs Toulouse. This should really give both sides a good indication of how well they are playing at the moment. Looking forward to watching this one at the weekend.

Leciester v Leeds & Sale v Worcester

2007-11-30T08:28:00.000Z

Got to see two matches at the weekend on the tv. Both interesting encounters when you consider it two of the top teams vs top of the bottom teams.

A friend of mine, a Sale fan, went to Worcester to watch the game, he said it wasn't a very friendly places, some of the Worcester supporters were quite abusive towards the end of the game. The lots of the Worcester fans left with 10 minutes to go!! Put it down to them not being proper rugby fans. The other place I heard that is very unfriendly to visiting supporters is Gloucester. In Gloucester they don't have that excuse.

Anyway the game. Sale fans must be thank fully they now have a decent kicker in the shape of Luke McAllister. Charlie 'I couldn't hit the side of a barn' Hodgson was back to his usual England form and nearly blew the game for Sale. I don't understand why Stuart Barnes has such a total hard on for him. He keep witting on about his 'fizzing right hand' didn't mention his flapping right foot. Anyway McAllister looks a quality player, but we all knew that already. Some great attacking lines, good kicking from hand and penality kicks, plus his tackling was pretty good as well. Worcester tired to fight back but Luke's boot keep Sale ticking the score board over and took the fight out of them eventually. I don't think Worcester will go down they showed a lot of fight plus they have some experienced players in the shape of Rico Gear turning up soon.

With regards to Leeds however I don't think they will last. I believe they played as well as they could against a second string Leicester side and was still convincingly beaten. varndell score some typical wingers tries, yes the first one was knock on! However he still picked up the ball placed it down and left the decision to the officials which is the right thing to do. Been a lot of calls for him to be picked for England again. I totally agree he is a talent and has great potential, and the only way to nurture that potential is get him playing the big games and get him the best coaching. Interesting to see he is play this weekend on the wing, seems the new coach is giving him a good run out and has changed tactics from last year of the two power wingers.

This weekend Leicester Vs Sale. All the stars for both sides should be an interesting match up.
I predict a Leicester win as it at their home ground, plus I believe they have the depth of squad to change the game in the latter stages if needed. In strategy writings they say fight the ordinary with the ordinary to gain a level playing field and then use the extra ordinary to break the battle and win. So save your best moves to break the games, or bring on subs or reserves to finish off the fight.

Heineken Cup & Challenge Cup

2007-11-20T20:03:00.000Z

What a great weekend for English clubs in Europe. Only lost 1 game and draw 1 game everything else a win. Welsh clubs only managed 1 draw in the Heineken cup and lost all the others. The French clubs going 50-50 on win-lose. I think there is a certain amount of buoyancy in the English clubs after the world cup and quite a bit of low morale in the French and Welsh sides.

In terms of strategy indicates the possible impact of morale in the English clubs due to the world cup and the lack of morale in the other clubs.

I read a great article on planet rugby about the French and English clubs.

http://www.planet-rugby.com/Story/0,18259,3551_2891783,00.html

I thought that the French clubs had a similar salary cap to the English, I thought it was a European directive!! Obviously I was wrong, but it doesn't seem to be helping the French by having the extra money available.

Please to see Leicester win well away from home and was very interested in hearing from the new coach, that he wanted them to play smarter not harder. I think Leicester may have gotten a little too carried away with the power rugby concept in the past. Nice to see a tactical style of play coming to work with the raw power the Leicester has in its squad.

What a great result for Bristol this weekend. Keeping Stade de France to Nil is a no mean feat, I hope they can carry on with his form in the rest of the Heineken and EDF cups.

Back to the normal Premiership this week and Leicester have got Leeds. I am hoping for a good score, be interested too see who is in the side to play against Leeds.

Start again

2007-11-13T20:33:00.000Z

Realized I haven't blogged much. Missed blogging the entire world cup, just got busy basically. So I aim to start again maybe keep the blogs more frequent, but slightly shorter to keep myself interested.

So the World Cup. Who would have though England would have made it to the final! Who would have though Ireland & Wales wouldn't have made it past the group stages. Now the Heineken Cup has start lots of players and team want to make amends. Big surprises this week were Clermont Auv thrashing the the Scarlets. Clermont do have a lot of new players including a few big stars. Good start for them. Leicester lost!! That did surprise me, I think they are going to go through a bit of a change over the next few weeks with a new coach. Hope they can get back to winning ways soon. Roll on the rest of the Heineken Cup. I believe it showed in the World Cup knock out stages that European teams are use to the high intensity knock games in comparison to the south hemisphere teams. It is a great competition for us all.

Sum up of Super Saturday

2007-03-17T23:15:00.000Z

Well done France you fought till the end again!!!

Ireland I bet you wish you kicked the ball dead instead of going for that extra score.

Wales better team on the day you had it all to play for. I was at millennium stadium and the Welsh crowd made a lot of noise for their team, I should imagine for a new English cap it was extremely intimidating.

For England 3rd is progress and unfortunately before kick off the squad knew win, lose or draw we were only ever going to be 3rd. Good experience for them and they will learn from this as they did from the Irish game. Brian Ashton does seem to learn from his mistakes unlike Andy Robinson.

Italy held Ireland well in the first half put unfortunately once a couple scores went in there was nothing left to play for with their best position in the 6 nations already secured.

Scotland wooden spoon.

I have learnt a lot about the use strategy and the advantages and disadvantages each team encounters before a game. The 6 nations is an interesting competition the luck of the draw of home and away game and the order of the games being key to each teams chances. Imagine what might of happen if the games had been played in a different order???

Psychology of the pre-match banter

2007-03-15T13:55:00.000Z

It has been interesting to hear the talk coming from the different camps this week.

Ireland talking about how easy it will be to beat Italy is a mistake. It will only give the Italians passion on the day.

Wales similarly talk about showing the English, how good they are and that they are confident of victory.

England talks about how hard the game will be and expect the Welsh to fight them every step of the way.

This is all about controlling expectations. The Irish players now have it in their heads that they will walk over Italy. The Italians will be out to make a point they previously didn't need to make, it will give fuel to their game in front of their home crowd.

English players have prepared them selves mentally for a hard game against the Welsh with the coaches talking about this being the most difficult test of the 6 nations. Where as the Welsh have it in their heads that they will win through pure passion to avoid the white wash.

If you are prepared mentally to met your opponents believing you will win easily and find when you met them they are not so easily beaten, it is hard to shift your mental view of the situation and therefor your expectations.

If however, you are prepared for a long hard fight you will never be disappointed.

In the first world war the German troops where told that the "Tommy" was a buffoon and a flop they would easily overcome. The British troops where told the Germans were barbaric "Hun" and expected to met a monster in the battle fields. When they met the British troops were enraged with anger prepared to fight for their lives against the barbaric "Hun" and the Germans expect to met a buffoon. So what do you think happen when they first met???? The German discovered the truth about their opponents and felt cheated and lied to by their leaders and suffered from bad morale. The British troops were mentally prepared for their opponents and fought them tooth and nail with their expectations met.

Preview Wales v England

2007-03-14T12:47:00.000Z

For 2008 England v Wales click here

Final game of the 6 nations with both teams having something to play for. For England this could range from 1st to 4th place depending on the other results earlier in the day. For Wales avoiding the white wash and the wooden spoon.

England will be keen to progress from last weeks win and will love the idea of sealing Welsh fate to the white wash and wooden spoon. With Tindall out Matthew Tait has been rewarded with a start, as he has played well as a sub. Tait will be looking forward to banishing those ghosts from 2005 at the Millennium Stadium. He is a bigger, fitter and more rounded player from back then and has grown mentally from that experience. Ashton has cut Lewesy from the squad showing that he will punish bad performances. Leadership is a massive part of strategy and a good leader looks to reward the good (Tait) and punish the bad (Lewsey) to create the right type of team. All leadership books will discuss this point and references to it can be found in "The Prince" and"The Art of War". This was something Andy Robinson failed to do. How often did one of the players have a crap game yet still get picked the next time around (I don't want to mention names), but Andy Robinson definitely had his favourites. More on this after the 6 Nations were I will compare Aston to Robinson style of leadership and its role in strategy.

From Lewseys removal Cueto has been brought in to play at Full back. I find this strange, Lewsey was axed as he played the full back role like a winger, so he swaps one winger with another winger at full back!!!!!! Robinson is the natural full back for his club, allowing Cuteo or Lewsey to play in their natural position on the wing.

For Wales "Captain Crap" is out and James Hook looks to replace him at fly half. Is it just me or does James Hook look like Dean Gaffney?????

Some think this may actually help Wales. Giving Jones the title "Captain Crap" won't help and it gives him a tag of bad omen. Wales will be desperate to avoid the White wash and will give them extra fight on the day. Plus if there is a chance England could win the 6 Nations it will intensive this energy. The Welsh forwards found it difficult to compete against the other 6 nations and in the last 20 minutes are normally worn out leaving the hair bear bunch to prop things up. Wales have been a bit unlucky this year with decision going against them, but still have the players in the backs to cause serious damage. The are gaining ground and it won't surprise anyone for them to put in their best performance against the English. For Wales to win they need the ball in their backs to stand a chance. It will be interesting seeing the Welsh back line up against the new and improve English back line. Strettle put in some ferocious tackles against the French, so it will prove to be an interesting contest.

I believe England will win. Some of this is due to my rose tinted specs, but also they have the form and confidence going into this last game. England squad still need time to gel properly too reach their full potential. The new forwards will look to dominate the game and the new English back line will enjoy a run at the Welsh. The Welsh back line is an attacking force, but in defense they are weak. Like wise the English back line has shown against France they can defend well and they prevented any tries from the French attack, which no one else has done this 6 nations.

If England can get a few earlier scores on Wales then the Welsh team may crumble knowing that they are heading to a white wash and wishing they could get off the pitch as soon as possible. However, if Wales get the early score using the extra energy of avoiding the white wash to England, we could be in for a good fight. I think however, England would still win the game in the last twenty minutes. This appears to be the time when the Welsh slow down and their opponents take full advantage.

Preview France v Scotland

2007-03-14T08:21:00.000Z

France can still win the 6 nations and probably have the best chance on Super Saturday.
Strategically the advantages are all on their side.

1) Playing at home - Scotland fans don't travel so the French will have huge support. It is their stadium they will feel at home and know the pitch well.
2) Revenge on Scotland for last years defeat - A big motivational boost to the players
3) They will want to bounce back after defeat against England - Again these players will want to prove them selves in a world cup year and regain some pride.
4) Will have seen the Italy v Ireland game and know what they must do to win.
5) They will stop experimenting and field their best side ensure victory. Against England they changed their side yet again still looking for that magic selection.

Scotland will go with their "active defense", but the French will look to blitz and charge down the Scottish kicks, as it has become an obvious weakness. The French will try and prevent the Scots slowing down the ball and will take the resulting penalties Scotland give away. Scotland will rely totally Paterson to get them the penalties and build a score line. Yet they will actually need the ball to do this and I believe the French will totally dominate in the forwards.

Overall the French have the better team and players, plus the strategic advantages discussed above. The one thing against the French and for Scotland is no one expects Scotland to win on Saturday, so they have nothing to lose at the moment. If Ireland win well against Italy it may allow Scotland to frustrate the French and capitalise on an errors brought about by forcing the game to get the points difference up.

The tone of the weekends games will depend on the result of the Italy V Ireland game. From that the French will know what to do and then so will England. If the French win convincingly England win just concentrate on the win securing 2nd/3rd place on points difference depending on the Italy v Ireland result.

Preview Italy v Ireland

2007-03-14T08:19:00.000Z

On Saturday Ireland have the hardest job of being first up with the chance to win the championship. That is slightly wrong however, because Italy could win on Saturday as well if they beat Ireland and the rest of the results go their way. However, the race is really between Ireland and France ,with England on a outside chance and Italy with a mathematical but highly improbable chance.

I believe that Italy could beat Ireland on Saturday if the play the right type of game. The Italian coach is very clever tactically, as we have send in the 6 nations so far and he will see the opportunity to get at Ireland.

So far Ireland's result, except against England, have been very poor. Wales should have beaten them and would have if they had got the penalty try for taking Czekaj off the ball. France beat them at the death, as Ireland took their metaphorical eye off the ball. Scotland should have beaten them, as Ireland were clearly not up for the game as I discussed in the result post of the Scotland v Ireland match.

So on Saturday away from home against an emergent Italian side with Ireland already won the triple crown, the Grand slam is gone and the French only have Scotland to beat in Paris after a defeat against England. Also knowing that everyone still sees the French as the favourites for the championship, probably including the Irish.

I don't believe the Irish have the right mind set to go to Rome and record a big win. Plus I think the Italians can use the fact they know Ireland must record a big win to tactically out manoeuvre them on the day.

How???

1) Italian Blitz defense is good and can be used to disrupt and upset the Irish back line. Can get at O'Gara and Stringer.

2) Target O'Driscoll, he is injury prone. This is a sound tactical play to remove an oppositions leader. With O'Driscoll out they not only lose their most talented player, but also their captain and talisman.

3) Frustrate Ireland as much as possible. Keep the scores low by playing a very strong defense (as point 1) and wait for Ireland to force the game looking for the big scores, and then exploit the opportunities this will create. Italy will keep the ball in the forwards (their strength) and pound at Ireland slowing down the ball and ruining Irish the game. Tronconn will see the gaps as they appear and give the fast Italian backs a chance to run for or with the ball.

Ireland will be missing O'Connell and the Italians Bergamasco (for taking out the opponents leader!!!).

Also I believe the Italians will be on a high from beating Wales and won't want the last game to be a record defeat at the hands of the Irish.

Ireland will want to make amends for their poor performance from the week before, but most of their players will now be think Heineken Cup and World Cup.

Most of the Strategy for this game will be around the psychology of the two teams. Each side will have plenty of chance to see what the other is capable of and with have planned their tactics appropriately.

Let see what happens. It should make for some interesting viewing for the neutral.

My day out

2007-03-12T12:07:00.000Z

As I may have mentioned in my earlier posts I got tickets to the England V France match.

So I head off to Twickenham looking forward to a good day out. I didn't expect England to win, but then again not many people did. I thought if we changed things we could compete as discussed in my match preview.

I had managed to get hospitality tickets and met up with the people I was going at a hotel in Richmond for lunch. Turns out the tickets were through the French Union when we turned up discovered everything was in French. I mean everything menu, speeches, 90% of the people, and even the waitresses were French. Nevermind it was a different atmosphere than I was use to and the French were very friendly. Had a few Guinness, bagged my programme and a free gift. Every one was told to head for the coaches and half an hour later we realised every else had left the room and decided to get a translation. Out side everyone crowded around the hotel next door??? Yes the French team was heading for their coach. Chabel is entering scene left.

We jumped on our coach and followed them to the stadium. Cool. More drinks and found our seats. This was our view.

Soon realised as the French fans passed around the songs sheet to the French national Anthem we were seating in the French section of the crowd. It's going to be different I thought. Then there was this noise behind me!!!!

Just before the kick I got a picture message from my wife of my 2 and a half month old daughter in her England ticket. "COME ON ENGLAND" was the title.

The games kicked off and we had a great time chatting with the French crowd. However, one English woman complained about the band!!! (obviously not a proper fan) I don't know why it created a great atmosphere. The stewards asked them to stop play and they did. However, all the English fan then complained to the steward about the music had stopping and that was all enjoying it. They reached a comprise in the end and moved the woman to another part of the stadium. The English and French fans encouraged the band to start back up and sang along. This is way I love rugby you would never get this at football.

The result went our way and I felt sorry for the French fans as they left. They all come a long way with high expectations and had created a great atmosphere and a great day out.

Few more drinks and headed home.

Met up with my friend who been in the players lounge and had got autographs from Mike Catt, Austin Healy and Danny Grewcock. Tried to get Harry Potter(Harry Ellis), but he had disappeared, typical. Great day going to Cardiff on Saturday, can't wait.

Result England 26 - France 18

2007-03-12T11:37:00.000Z

The surprise result of the tournament so far. There was a number of things England needed to improve from the Ireland game if they were to seriously compete against the French, as discussed in the Preview post. They changed these areas and the team managed to become a unit after only a few hours of training together.

The pack fought well and secured decent ball for the backs. England attacked through the middle giving us the options that lead to the two tries. This was all discussion in Preview on the game about what England needed to do if they were to seriously compete. The fact that the man of the match was a forward shows how well England competed for the ball allowing our backs into the game, more so than any of the previous 6 nations matches this year. This also slowed down the French allowing us to re-group and form a defensive line. How often did you see Dominici with the ball in space??? We needed more pace in the middle that Farrel couldn't supply. Flood, Catt and Geraghty supplied this swiftness and was able to break through the middle setting up options to score the tries. For the first try Flood still had Robinson on his outside. For the second Catt and Tindall supporting Geraghty, plus Lewsey following up on his right hand side.

Corry in the second row was great, he may be to slow as a number 8 at international level, but as a second row he adds an extra dimension to the England squad. The stats show just how well England competed for the ball and how much of the game they controlled. The recycling was so much better and kept the momentum going. When you consider the experience of the back line with Tindall, Catt, Lewsey, Robinson and then add some talented new players trying to make a mark; Strettle (get a hair cut ;)), Flood and Geraghty you get a mix that gives England the right balance. Plus we still have experienced players like Wilkinson and Cuteo to come back.

However, lets not get to carried away. This is new side that may have just surprised the French as they didn't know what to expect, especially with introduction of closed training sessions. Wales next week will of had chance to review the tapes and work out some counter tactics. Plus they will be desperate to avoid the white wash giving them an extra incentive on the day. There are still things England could improve on, as they should always be with any side.

"If you are not going forward you are going backwards, there is no such thing as Static". Not sure where this quote comes from, but it is a key point in Strategy.

I shall write up the preview of the Wales v England later in the week once Brian Ashton picks his squad. Who will be fly-half?? Who will be on the bench??? Will Farrel, Wilkinson and Vickery be back in the side?? Will he reward Catt and Flood places in the starting line up?? With Tindall out we need another centre! It's important to remember that both Flood and Geraghty have played at centre for their respective clubs, so don't be surprised to see Wilkinson at fly half and Flood or Geraghty at centre along side Mike Catt. What about Matthew Tait he has played well as a sub evrey game?? I don't think Geraghty will start at fly-half as his place kicking has been poor in the England Saxon games earlier in the tournament and his kicks to touch where a bit wayward at the end.

It will be interesting this week to see the squad selection and hear the pre-match psychology. The psychology employed before a battle is an important point in strategy texts such as the "Art of War". I will discuss this in more detail on the Preview post before the last games of the 6 nations, but it will be interesting to hear the language of Brian Ashton and Mike Catt/Phil Vickery before the Wales game.

Result Italy 23 - Wales 20

2007-03-10T18:28:00.000Z

Lets consider the Strategic advantages/dis-advantages of each team going into this game

For Wales a win would have meant avoiding the wooden spoon and a potential humiliation of a white wash sealed by their arch enemy England. Why is this strategic advantage!! The cornered man/army will fight twice as hard as the man/army with an escape route. This situation would have given them some extra drive against the Italians. Now against England on Saturday they will fell even more cornered and will fight much harder as there is no escape route and no second chance.

For the Italians they had done better than before in any 6 nations by winning away from home. This however, meant win or lose they could still hold their heads up high and claim progress at the end of the tournament. This was a potential dis-advantages for Italy as they had an escape route. This was nicely counteracted by the offer of £15k per player if they beat Wales, plus the sell out of all the remaining games with their country men and women fully behind them. They knew they could beat Wales and they had all the reasons to want to beat Wales as well.

Now to the game itself.

The Welsh forwards did complete better than expected and Italian backs also played better than expected against the Welsh. The turning point was the substitutions in the Welsh and Italian forwards. This gave the Italian forwards the clear advantage supplying them with the penalty and and the penalty kick for the line out resulting in the try.

Discussed before about using the expected to met the expected and the unexpected to win. This refers back to the unorthodox and the orthodox methods discussed in the England vs France preview. So you use the expected to met the expected and the unexpected to break the expected.

"Use standard methods to meet everyday challenges
Use unexpected methods to win big breakthroughs"

When Pez chipped the ball over the Welsh line you could see it was an unexpected move as it caught the defense on the back foot. Everyone expected Italy to keep the ball in the forwards trying to use their strength to barrel it over the line. The fact the try was under the posts resulting in a 3 point margin was critical to the controversy that surround the game in the last 10 seconds. Overall even a draw would have been disappointing for Wales and still left the Italians with their best 6 nations so far.