Market Time

S&P 500 - April 2, 2013

2013-04-02T10:20:00.003-04:00

Is this the anatomy of an ending diagonal? I have lost count of number of times in recent days I have read here, there, somewhere, somone calling a top. I guess the secret for calling tops (and bottoms) is to keep calling it till one of the calls pans out. This, of course, is totally absurd if one wants to play with real money in the real market in real-time That's why I prefer

Gold Miners - March 24, 2013

2013-03-24T13:25:00.003-04:00

In a previous post, http://markettime.blogspot.ca/2013/03/precious-metals-march-07-2012.html, I did a technical study on HUI and concentrated on two support areas So far, HUI has found some support from the higher area of 325 and made a bounce Looking at a related ETF, Canadian XGD on TSX of Toronto There seems to be a short-term uptrend and a nice short-term breakout But it's still

S&P 500 - March 21, 2013

2013-03-21T07:57:00.000-04:00

TopFinder curve (Red dashed curve on the chart below) I was tracking has now expired The uptrend since Feb 26 is likely over. The question is if a new uptrend is about to be launched (and a new TopFinder to be tracked) from March 19 Immediate support has moved up to 1530-1536 area. If market has another high or another uptrend in it, then 1530-1538 should hold I theoretically expect

S&P 500 - March 12, 2013

2013-03-12T22:20:00.002-04:00

TopFinder (red dashed curve on the chart above) launched from recent low is at 44% Previous TopFinders went into 80+% percent before an end to the trend they tracked My methods indicate a theoretical intermediate low in late April early May time frame I think market is at a stage that I should think about tightening and/or trailing stops for long S&P position Investing in the

Precious Metals - March 07, 2012

2013-03-07T08:26:00.002-05:00

Gold bugs of all shapes and sizes have been sprayed left and right and center for some time It was just a matter of months ago when they thought new all-time highs after highs when latest round of QE was announced Well, it did not work that way and what took flight was S&P, gold and silver languished and PM miners got hammered A few posts ago, I said: "Using the above line study,

S&P 500 - March 05, 2013

2013-03-05T10:36:00.002-05:00

In the previous post, I said:"divergences are no guarantee of a top. Price is the only indicator that matters and everything else, momentum, breadth or what not are, at best warning signs and, at worst, misleading noise"and"I expect an intermediate low later in April-May time frame and that presents a possibility of another highRight now, resistance is in the 1520 area and a move above that

S&P 500 - March 03, 2013

2013-03-03T11:35:00.002-05:00

So far, S&P's behaviour looks like a tight consolidation I have seen in a number of places analysts pointing out a variety of negative divergences with momentum indicators like MACD or breadth indicators like Mclelland In the chart above I am showing a history of negative divergences. You can easily set up a chart with MACD for yourself and spistory of divergenges for that As

S&P 500 - February 27, 2013

2013-02-27T10:58:00.001-05:00

In previous post(s) I monitored the TopFinder and said I might be tempted reduce on trend break, and that seems to not have been a bad ideaI have also been differentiatng between a trading cycle low that has been, theoretically due in February and an intermediate cycle low that is, theoretically, due in April-May time frame The recent low qualifies as a treading cycle low. Qualifies does not

S&P 500 - February 20, 2013

2013-02-20T22:01:00.001-05:00

In the last S&P post I said: "TopFinder is now at 66%. It is getting mature and is working nicely with the projected theoretical intermediate cycle low due April-May" and "I would be tempted to reduce on a trend line break" This is how things are now The small trend line was penetrated a couple of sessions ago and TopFinder has now reached 88% Has the trend ended? Do we

HUI - February 19, 2013

2013-02-19T22:38:00.000-05:00

While gold has been having a rough time mired in a sideways pattern, gold miners have been getting a real kicking and dumping Yest, looking at a larger time frame we can see that, despite the kicking that miners and their holders have been suffering the larger uptrend is still intact Using the above line study, first area of support is around 325 Playing around with the line study, I can

S&P 500 - Feb 09, 2013

2013-02-09T14:45:00.002-05:00

It's been a while since my last post When gets into a trend, there seldom is anything to do. The way I calculate things, the next projected intermediate cycle low is theoretically due in the April-May time frame I have launched a MIDAS TopFinder fro the recent low TopFinder is now at 66%. It is getting mature and is working nicely with the projected theoretical intermediate cycle

S&P 500 - November 29, 2012

2012-11-29T08:01:00.003-05:00

Last post, I said: "In a downtrend, it is important to see how the index behaves against resistance. Best is, of course, to burst through it. If index cannot do that, it will be good to go tight and sideways and then overcome resistance. If not, it is OK to pullback, hold support and then run again" Yesterday, index spent a few hours rushing down and then it just bounced up hard off of a

S&P 500 - November 25, 2012

2012-11-25T10:22:00.001-05:00

Last post, I said: "Looking at BottomFinder curve (red-dashed) launched from recent peak, it is 90+% spent Index is deep in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low I think index is oversold enough to at least attempt a bounce soon above 1310 support" Since then index has put in a low and has rallied nicely I have marked the confluence of support with a black arrow This recent

S&P 500 - November 18, 2012

2012-11-18T10:31:00.001-05:00

Nearby support is 1310-1330 area After that, support is around 1260 I have added long term support curves from low of 2009 These support curves held declines marked by arrows. They form the support around 1130-1180 area Looking at BottomFinder curve (red-dashed) launched from recent peak, it is 90+% spent Index is deep in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low I think index is

S&P 500 - November 13, 2012

2012-11-13T08:50:00.001-05:00

This is a weekly view of how things stand with the index. It stopped at weekly support around 1375 We are in the timing band for an intermediate low and a daily swing low, when that happens, will have the potential (Not The Certainty) of marking that low This is a 60-min view of S&P futures (Cash is +5) It is hanging to support. Hanging (or crawling) is not that good.

S&P 500 - November 9, 2012

2012-11-09T07:14:00.003-05:00

So far, so good If you remember from last post, I mentioned the support area and the timing band for a cyclical low. I also have said ""It would be good if we could get a swing low above 1375-1385. It would be even better if index could have another sharp spike down into 1375-1385 before giving a swing low"" The chart below is, I think, very clear where support areas are Index is in

S&P 500 - October 27, 2012

2012-10-27T18:05:00.000-04:00

I have launched a BottomFinder curve (red dashed curve) and it's currently around 26% Index closed the week below its nearby support curve of 1426 and is in danger of confirming a mid-term downtrend Next weekly support curve is around 1373 On a daily chart 1375-1385 area looks like important technical support Index has entered the timing band of an intermediate cycle low In the

S&P 500 - October 24, 2012

2012-10-24T08:49:00.000-04:00

S&P has experienced more weakness It broke below the line that had for a possible contraction Drawing a parallel, there is now a potential for a down-sloping channel (red lines on the chart below) Resistance is around 1450 Index is resting on the blue support curve. See how this support curves have stopped the index in stages Next support curve, which coincides with a few other lines is

S&P 500 - October 21, 2012

2012-10-21T13:54:00.004-04:00

Index is at an interesting juncture You remember that I had a weekly TopFinder curve that had gone 80+%, which theoretically indicated a potential for an uptrend being spent up (If you are not familiar with MIDAS and TopFinder curves and interested in finding out what they are, google them) We had also expected some sort of sputtering late September based on a theoretical/statistical

S&P Futures, October 19, 2012

2012-10-19T08:46:00.000-04:00

Remember the channel on the chart below? Failure to reach the mid-line will be a sign of technical weakness If Index is gonna maintain the uptrend, it should at least stay in the lower half of the channel Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. All information included in Market Time

S&P 500 - October 18, 2012

2012-10-18T22:38:00.001-04:00

It seems like index has set a short-term cycle low. Nearby support is around 1430-1440 area. As long as 120-1430 is not violated, the recent low has a chance of being an intermediate cycle low as well as a short-term cycle low Longer term, there has been a loss of structural integrity as can be see from weekly prices of MAI of the chart below This is not a sell trigger. The

S&P 500 - October 13, 2012

2012-10-13T13:29:00.002-04:00

Index has broken it two recent uptrend lines Resistance is around 1450 Support is around 1400-1410 area and that looks like important support Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. All information included in Market Time Premium reflects ongoing thoughts of Market Time authors

S&P 500 - October 10, 2012

2012-10-10T22:27:00.001-04:00

A couple of post ago, http://markettime.blogspot.ca/2012/10/s-dece-futures-oct-3-2012.html I showed a 60-min chart of S&P futures for Dec 2012 with a channel and said "the recent behavior is a bit choppy under the mid-line and that increase the probability of a drop towards the lower parts of the channel" Well, probabilities did come true this time as you can see from this updated chart

GLD - October 10, 2012

2012-10-10T08:55:00.000-04:00

The weekly TopFinder of GLD has been indicating the potential for some sort of a top by reaching 70+ percent There is resistance forming around 173 at this time Support is 157-162 area On important thing is for GLD to keep outperforming S&P and for miners to keep outperforming GLD When it comes to gold, for every ounce of the metal, there are tons of experts. I shall

S&P 500 - October 4, 2012

2012-10-05T05:05:00.001-04:00

This is a chart with weekly TopFinder (red graph) Nearby weekly support is around 1430 This is a daily with S/R curves Notice how nicely the fastest trend line of chart provided support and bounce I had nearby resistance around 1460 and, yesterday, index tried to go through that Nearby support is around 1460-1435 which is more and more shaping up as a defining level for the