MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS

2009-11-06T09:01:00.003-05:00

Nustar (NS) CEO is on CNBC sometime between 9am and 11 am this morning.

2009-11-06T08:34:00.001-05:00

Spectra Energy earnings have hit the wires. So has the employment number which was not pretty. Looks like a down open.

2009-11-06T07:51:00.002-05:00

CROSSTEX EARNINGS AND MORE
THE DAY AFTER THE BIG RALLY!

First off sorry for no posts yesterday but i had my hands full at work and suddenly the time slipped away. 200 dow points and nearly 3 points on the mlp index was nice. Charts are suggesting we could break out today on the dow assuming the employment numbers behave. Lost of talk of a head and shoulders top forming on the daily chart of the dow but we had that talk 2 months ago and that was about 1000 points ago.

News this morning from Crosstex (XTEX) as they post earnings and they say they are pleased with the progress of paying down debt. No sign of a distribution returning anytime soon for Constellation Energy (CEP) as they put up numbers they call solid. DCP Midstream (DPM) put their earnings up last night after the close. Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) are due out this morning.

Stock futures are up a little head of the employment numbers while energy is a little lower. The dollar gets attention today and its a little higher against the euro ahead of the open. The scope of yesterday's move leads one the suspect someone got wind of the employment number but we wont go down that particular road.

2009-11-04T09:10:00.003-05:00

RALLY MOOD THIS MORNING

Markets are in rally mode and rally mood this morning as futures on the S&P are up over 8 points. Fed meeting and announcement at 2:15pm and everyone will be disecting the press release for any clues. 9700 is holding quite well and we may see the markets begin to move away from this short term bottom. Still no sign of a top.

The ex distribution cycle continues this morning with Sunoco Logistics (SXL) among others trading sans dis. Earnings news also on the frontline this morning with Linn Energy (LINE) putting up numbers and the stock looks a little lower at the open. Also we have earnings from El Paso Partners (EPB). Targa Natural Resources (NGLS) earnings news with some guidance and Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) tells us in their earnings that they are good with their covenants.

Crude is higher, nat gas lower this morning and we have commodities moving higher this morning with gold knocking on the door at 1100. Here comes the open and what looks like a strong start.

Just a reminder i continue to add links to mlps on the blog roll for your mlp shopping convienence. And also i would like to point you to this blog posted by one of our members here. AVI gives us his market perspective and its always good to get ideas from others. Its also on the blogroll.

2009-11-03T08:12:00.002-05:00

HOLLY DOING A STOCK OFFERING.

I was wondering just yesterday when this was coming and sure enough they announced yesterday after the close. Holly Energy Partners (HEP) is doing another offering. Its the second one this year; 1.9 million units coming to market. The stock is down over 2 bucks before the open. Last time they did an offering the stock was around 27 and since then we've seen it run to 41. The bull trend means this could be an opportunity. Usually stock offerings tend to make the particular mlp and underperformer for a week or so.

Ex distributions continue. This morning its Nustar (NS) by over a buck. We still have a few more to get through but the bulk should be done by the end of the week. Not much else on the news front this morning. No upgrades or downgrades so far. The dollar is stronger and that means lower oil and lower stocks but we have this big Buffett deal buying Burlington Northern (BNI) at a huge premium to yesterday's close. So the open looks soft but there might be a firm undertone not much lower than here.

2009-11-02T14:03:00.002-05:00

Notice on the weekly chart that a trip down to 235-240 would take us to where all those moving averages are crossing. Not out of the question and it still means we can be bullish longer term; as long as that level holds.

The index is now down 2 points and the dow is down 20. Not looking pretty for the last hour. Also note some large cap mlps have not gone ex distribution yet and that is probably holding some mlps up in price like Nustar and Sunoco Logistics just to name 2.

2009-11-02T12:54:00.003-05:00

Volitlity rearing its ugly head right now and the dow has gone from plus 140 to down 2 right now. MLPS were up over 2 on the index and are now barely higher. Watching the tape today you can feel the push and pull in both directions so the close today is important.

Williams Partners (WPZ) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) were both up one or more earlier but have since pulled back. They remain up major fractions. Capital Products Partners(CPLP) got downgrade this morning by Deutche Bank to hold from buy as Deutche is predicting a distribution cut.

While i type this post the mlp index has just gone negative but the dow has turned positive again. The volitility index on the S&P has turned higher and is back up over 30. Enjoy the rollercoaster.

2009-11-02T08:09:00.001-05:00

Buckeye Partners (BPL) is out with earnings and a distribution increase.

Some isolated premarket trades in E V Partners (EVEP) down 2 and Plains All American (PAA) down 1 but no news drivers and i dont see them on any downgrade list. At least not yet.

2009-11-02T07:04:00.002-05:00

AFTER FRIDAY...WE LOOK AHEAD!

Monday morning in a new month and its Novemeber which usually begins a seasonally strong period. Now notice that even after Friday's big sell off we have not taken out any important support in my view and the uptrend line of those rising moving averages remains intact for both the dow and the mlp index. So really the jury is still out on what is really happening here. Friday was the last day of the year for mutual funds so you can imagine a number of fund managers running to the sell window all at the same time.

Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) are set to report earnings this morning around 8am No other headlines on the wire this morning. Nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list. The round of ex-distributions continue this week along with addtional earnings news so we post headlines as they cross. Stock futures are higher this morning ahead of the open as is the energy complex.

2009-10-30T09:19:00.001-04:00

Btw forgot to mention this is the last day of the year for mutual funds so there could be some distortions that could play into the game later today.

2009-10-30T08:40:00.003-04:00

ANOTHER UPLEG BEGINS?

I went to a 4 month chart view here of the dow industrials and mlps and you can see very clearly the scope of this uptrend and what has happened every time we have come down to the 34 day moving average. Now i am going to put out a small warning flag here. It may or may not mean anything but so far the trend is holding. We need to decisively take out 10,200 on the dow and keep on going. So the real test will come on this rally that began yesterday. The trade remains in tact as far as buying these corrections. On the positive side (and you can see this better on the S&P 500 chart)

There was a spike in volume on Wednesday when the market fell. Yesterday we got it all back and more which suggests Wednesday was signficant technical reversal day. Watch that level on the downside down the road. Looking for some followthrough today or at least nothing worse than sideways.

Okay MLPS this morning seeing some upgrades as Citigroup upgrades Williams (WPZ) to buy from hold. Steifel Nicholas starts both Nustar (NS) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) at a buy. No news developlements. Stock futures are softer ahead of the open as is the energy complex except for nat gas which is higher.

2009-10-29T14:36:00.001-04:00

Just about a 6 point gain on the mlp index with the dow rocketing higher up 180 as we head into the last hour.

2009-10-29T13:30:00.001-04:00

More than half way back from yesterday's losses as mlps extend their gains and the index is now up over 5 points. Everything is up pretty much with quite a few mlps with strong fractional to 1 point plus gains. Market rally is very strong so the verdict so far is this was another trip down to the trendline that has now been reversed. Next wall will be what happens when we get back to 10,100 on the dow and 265 on the mlp index.

2009-10-29T10:42:00.002-04:00

The rally has a bit of steam as far as MLPs go and we are up well over 3 points on the day so far. K-Sea is down another 2 and change and trades with an 11 handle. A 50% haircut in 2 days. Other than that almost the entire group is showing gains. Enterprise (EPD) on the Citigroup upgrade is up nearly 1 and so is Alliance Resource (ARLP) on RBC listing them as outperform. Williams (WMZ) is up 1.49 on very good earnings and is the days biggest winner.

The dow is up around 70 points and holding. There have been a few attempts to get it up over 100 but nothing successful so far. I would like to see some mommentum build between 11am and noon so i can feel better about what they might try to do after 1pm.

Nat gas numbers are out and nat gas has turned higher as energy moves higher with stocks and the lower dollar.

2009-10-29T09:20:00.001-04:00

Citigroup also sees something in K-Sea it doesn't like so they are going from hold to sell. Dear Citigroup, they already have!

2009-10-29T08:31:00.002-04:00

Initial reaction to GDP is positive with a better than expected number. S&P up 9 points after the number from up 3 before. We'll see.

2009-10-29T08:22:00.002-04:00

Citigroup just putting its 2 cents in by upgrading Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) to buy from hold. And that upgrade is worth 2 cents of upside in the premarket! GDP just momemts away.

2009-10-29T07:48:00.005-04:00

9 POINTS DOWN...NOW WHAT?

After yesterday's 9 point MLP debacle, which btw was only a bit more than the 8 point debacle in K Sea Transportation Partners (KSP) we are already sitting today on the chart at a place where rallies have ensued taking us to higher highs going back at least 6 months on this chart. So until proven otherwise from a trading standpoint you have to look around in here after this rapid 6% correction in mlps and add to positions. However is it different this time? Oh if we only knew the answer to that one. The 55 day moving average sits at 250 and some small change and if we go lower at the open we could be right there. A trip to the 89 day moving average took place at the end of June and thats at 244. Another day like yesterday and we're right there. We can probably get that low and still be well within the contruct of the uptrend.

How is all of this going to break? Well in true bull markets it will get resolved with higher highs. We need however to ask ourselves after a move from 176 to 267 on the mlp index in 10 months is a meaningful correction finally at hand? Wouldnt be a big surprise. We noted a few weeks ago that 270 was going to be an extremely difficult wall to get through. Still it is amazing that sentiment in the overall tape got so bearish so fast. And that bearish sentiment is a very good thing to fuel another leg up. As always though they never make these decisions easy.

Okay this morning we begin the ex distribution parade with Holly Partners (HEP) and Markwest (MWE) leading the way. Holly Partners puts up earnings this morning which look pretty good. Williams Partners (WPZ) also announces earnings and announes an improved cash flow outlook going into next year. The news overall from most mlps appears to be brighter than where we were a year ago.

We have some anal-ist moves. Wells Fargo appears to see something in K-Sea's (KSP) distribution cut and outlook yesterday that...well to be perfectly frank..just didnt sound quite right. And so...brilliant minds that they are we see a downgrade from Outperform to Underperform. What would we do withoout these guys? And this morning RBC Capital Markets starts Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) at Outperform. We can only hoe they are right since we are long this one! I decided to do highlight them in color! Lack of sleep does this to the mind.

Other broader market drivers this morning we have stronger stock futures ahead of data. Energy is a little higher except for nat gas. European markets are a little softer. The dollar is a little softer also ahead of data...gold and silver are higher.

Okay do note that i have been adding MLP web sites to the blog roll a few at a time. Just scroll down to MLP BLOGS AND MORE and i am listing them alphabetically. My goal is to have them all on here for you so you can source them all from one page which would make life just a little bit easier.

2009-10-28T15:13:00.003-04:00

Closing in on an 8 point loss with EV Partners (EVEP) the biggest loser outside of K-Sea which by now we all know about. EV is down 2 on the oppenheimer downgrade. This is biggest one day drop we've seen since the great demise. Still only back to the trendlines and if we look at the weekly charts we are coming into a very important zone for most of the indexes. The moving averages have only now started to turn and attempting to cross over into a positive slope for the longer term. We are at a critical juncture here.

2009-10-28T13:39:00.002-04:00

A 6 point loss on the MLP index and we are at support.

K-Sea Transportation (KSP) is down 8 points on the distribution cut and hints of more trouble down the road. Teekay Shipping (TOO) is down in sympthay by 1.50. Oneok LP (OKS) E V Partners (EVEP) and Alliance (ARLP) are down 1 plus each. Down nearly 1 include Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and Plains All American (PAA).

Nustar (NS) is the big winner today up 25 cents as it continues to ride the upbeat company comments yesterday with earnings. If mlps and the market start another upleg this one could lead the way.

1050 on the S&P getting all the attention so watch it carefully. Perhaps everyone is selling ahead of the gdp number tomorrow and unless its really bad...every may have sold ahead of it and the market will rally. That has been the pattern these last several months. So we watch carefully.

2009-10-28T11:29:00.001-04:00

All the averages are at their 34 day moving average support line. The S&P is down near the 55 day moving average. They have held before. Sentiment is getting bearish very quickly in here and that usually is a good thing.

2009-10-28T09:35:00.002-04:00

A 7 dollar hit on K Sea Transportation along with a 1 point plus loser in TC Pipelines (TCLP) and strong fractional loses in Plains All American (PAA) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and you have a 3 point plus loss in the mlp index which takes us right down to that 34 day moving average which has been the wall that turns back sell-offs lately.

There are some fractional winners in Nustar (NS) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) among others. So a few distortions in here to factor through.

2009-10-28T09:23:00.002-04:00

K SEA is down 5.25 pre open. Not going to be pretty here. That uptrend line will probably get shattered today.

2009-10-28T08:52:00.003-04:00

Pre open activity in K SEA Transportation indicates that some are not happy with the earnings. The stock is down nearly 4 dollars. Perhaps its the little line that says the company my not be in compliance with financial convenants in Q-2 or Q3. AND it could be the distribution cut!!! Here is the relevant part of the press release.

The Company also announced that its distribution to unitholders for the first fiscal quarter will be $0.45 per unit, or $1.80 per unit annualized, compared to the previous distribution of $0.77 per unit. This distribution will be payable on November 16, 2009 to unitholders of record on November 9, 2009. At this distribution rate, the Company anticipates its distributable cash flow for fiscal 2010 will exceed 1.00 times the amount needed to cover the distributions to be paid to unitholders.

The Company believes it currently is in full compliance with all provisions of its debt and lease agreements. While the Company expects to continue to pay when due all future obligations in respect of its debt and leases, the Company expects that it will not be in compliance with its financial covenants in certain of these agreements as of the end of its second or third fiscal quarter of fiscal 2010, and in anticipation of these circumstances, will be seeking to amend these covenants.

This is what happens when business is not so good.

2009-10-28T08:27:00.002-04:00

Whoops...all that and i forgot that Oppenheimer cuts EV Partners to perform from outperform. The stock has outperformed for a number of months and has more than doubled off its 52 week low.