Investanomics

Fibrocell Science FCSC - Taking one large step forward

2012-10-12T22:34:00.000-07:00

Fibrocell Science FCSC - Is a position I have had for quite sometime now and is a great value at the current 15 - 17 cent price range. I thought I would provide some clarification since a lot of investors are incorrectly interpreting the recent news surrounding the company. The recent private placement deal is a huge positive for FCSC investors because of the following reasons:

Private Placement - NRM VII Holdings I, LLC, a Third Security, LLC affiliated fund and other investors purchased 450 million shares at 10 cents per share worth a total investment of $45 million. When you take into account that FCSC currently has about 100 million shares outstanding, the new investors are valuing the company at $55 million. This means that the pre-deal market cap of $15 million is way undervalued.

Debt - Concurrent with the deal the company will be converting part of it's debt into equity with the rest being paid off from proceeds of the private placement. FCSC will thereby be debt free upon completion of the deal. This is huge for FCSC investors since this removes the risk of bankruptcy in the near term. Debt is the biggest risk to growth companies in the early stages due to the lack of cash flow.

Up-Listing - FCSC recently got approval to effect a reverse stock split of the outstanding shares of the Company's common stock, prior to July 31, 2013, if the Board believes such action will facilitate the listing of the Company's common stock on a national securities exchange. I'm not a fan of reverse stock splits but I'm a huge fan of up-listing to a national exchange. This should bring in new investors that will increase market cap.

Partnership - We will be receiving more information regarding the partnership with Intrexon shortly but I expect FCSC to benefit by getting access to new IP that should improve manufacturing production as well as further the development in clinical trials.

Institutions are accumulating a position which is evidenced by the sudden and large increase in volume over the last few days. You have to think like a institution here and accumulate along with the big investors. I will hold on to my current position but will look to add to it once we get confirmation of the up-listing, afterall the company was nice enough to give us a target date which is before July 31, 2013.

FCSC is in my highly speculative portfolio so be sure to do your research.

Can Nasdaq Make A New High?

2011-12-09T12:11:00.001-08:00

I have been unable to update my opinions and trades the last few days but will try to post more often. This is a very busy time of year for my other businesses and was unable to post. Anyway back to the market.

The Nasdaq (QQQ) is in a very interesting location.

The market experienced a very sharp sell-off which I marked with the yellow arrow. I was actually hoping for more of a continued move down to retest the $50 which I was looking to buy. The $50 area is a very strong support area that the market has failed to break over the past 3 months. The Nasdaq has since reversed course and is threatening to take out a key pivot at $57.50. I marked this area with a blue arrow.

I believe Nasdaq may be setting up to make a new high. Now the QQQ is holding right above the daily 200ma. An aggressive trader could take a small position if QQQ were to break and close above $57.50. The real test is the resistance area close to $60. The QQQ has tried to break above the $60 mark about 3 times now.

If the market can break above and hold $60, I expect to see a very sharp move to the upside when that happens. The market is still very volatile so I wouldn't set a long term bias until I see $50 or $60 break. This is an environment for trading so I would stay nimble.

New Blackberry Phone, Code name London

2011-11-14T21:28:00.001-08:00

The device is rumored to be the first phone than would be running on the new Blackberry QNX operating system. It is expected that the new device may launch late next year. The new Blackberry is rumored to have the following specs:

1.5 GHZ dual core processor
1 GB of RAM
16 GB onboard storage
8 megapixel rear camera
2 megapixel front camera

It looks like Blackberry has finally gotten on board the band wagon and redesigned its original design. I believe RIMM is finally getting the picture and heading in the right direction. The question is, are the new QNX devices enough to turn the company around.

Source: The Verge

Groupon Fastest Growing Company In History

2011-11-06T10:02:00.000-08:00

Groupon already has been called the fastest growing company in history.

In Groupon’s second full year of business, 2010, it pulled down $713.4 million in revenue, according to its IPO filing. The revenue a year earlier was $30.47 million. That’s a growth rate of 2,241%. Yes, you read correctly.

(Groupon’s “revenue” is the amount of money a consumers pays for a Groupon offering. Gross profit, or the money Groupon actually retains after sharing revenue with its merchants, was $280 million last year and $10.9 million the year before. That an even faster rate of 2,462%.)

Here is a look at how other hot tech companies, including Google and Amazon.com, grew in their earliest years. Groupon puts them to shame.

Google, 2004 IPO

2000 revenue (first full year): $19.1 million

2001 revenue (second full year): $86.4 million

Growth rate: 352%

Amazon.com, 1997 IPO

1996 revenue (first full year): $15.7 million

1997 revenue (second full year): $147.8 million

Growth rate: 838%

Salesforce.com, 2004 IPO

2002 revenue (first full year): $22.4 million

2003 revenue (second full year): $50.99 million

Growth rate: 128%

(Note: for years ended Jan. 31, 2002, and Jan. 31, 2003)

eBay, 1998 IPO

1997 revenue (first full year): $5.7 million

1998 revenue (second full year): $47.35 million

Growth rate: 724%

iPad 3 Launch

2011-10-30T11:54:00.000-07:00

Now that the iPhone 4S was launched consumers are now waiting for the new iPad 3 to be released. We can assume that the iPad 3 will launch in spring 2012. Asian sources estimate that the launch could happen during March next year at the earliest. I expect the launch to happen closer towards the middle of next year.

One of the challenges in determining the launch date is Apple's dominance in the tablet market. Many companies launch a new product to compete a competitor. There are no tablets that are currently able to compete with the iPad 2. Apple's recent earning show that iPad 2 sales have increased 146% to $2.8 billion compared to the same period in the previous year. Apple sold 11.1 million iPads which marks a 166% increase over the previous year.

The lack of competition may push Apple to delay the lauch to later in the year to allow the company to further maximize iPad 2 sales.

The iPad 3 is expected to have the following:

Retina Display: People were expecting a retina display with the iPad 2; but the iPad disappointed them with the same display of the previous iPad. Now followers are waiting for an iPad 3 with a retina display. There is a rumor that the iPad 3 may offer a resolution of 2048×1536 pixels.

SD Card Slot: People are expecting a revolution in Apple iPad 3 with an SD card slot. Hopefully Apple may introduce SD card slot with the third generation iPad.

Improved HDMI: Yes iPad 2 also supports HDMI playback but you need to have Apple digital AV adapter, and that comes at an additional cost of $39. So it is much expected from iPad 3 to have an HDMI port that eliminates additional requirement of the HDMI cable.

Camera Flash: A camera with flash is a much-waited feature of the iPad; people were expecting iPad 2 to have camera flash; now we would be wondering if iPad 3 will have camera with flash.

Thunderbolt: The iPad 3 may have a Thunderbolt port. That will offer power, video and data connectivity using the same connector at lightning speed.

Wireless Synchronize: People are expecting iPad 3 to offer wireless sync of content rather than the traditional wired connectivity.

The Nasdaq (QQQ) Continues To Follow Through

2011-09-27T23:35:00.000-07:00

The Nasdaq (QQQ) continued to follow through the last two days holding the pivot point we have been watching. We need the market to create a new high which I marked with a yellow line in the chart. We need a new high to ensure that the current bullish trend is still intact. If the market were to fail to create a new high then it would be at risk for a possible sell-off.

Nasdaq (QQQ) still Bullish

2011-09-24T23:58:00.000-07:00

The market bulls felt some pressure over the last few days after experiencing a hard selloff . I turned bullish on the nasdaq when it broke above the high the of trading range. It is not uncommon for the market to pullback after breaking above a tough resistance point. You have to remeber to follow the signs the market gives us. The last pivot point held after a retest and so far looks like it is heading higher. I marked this retest with a yellow arrow. I will not turn bearish on the market until the $50 support level is broken. If the lows break after this much of a move I would expect a large move down. I would then look to short the market heavily at that point. I will remain bullish and follow the market trend until I see signs of change.

Close Avon (AVP) Position

2011-09-21T07:23:00.000-07:00

I'm closing the AVP position even though it hasn't stopped us out or hit our target. This taking way to long to move. Avon should have popped much faster if it wanted to rally. We are better off looking for another play. Avon is pretty much near our entry price so it's a break even trade.

Book Some KONA profits

2011-09-20T06:56:00.000-07:00

We hit $7, book some profits, we got a 40% move in one day. Nice ride from $5.20 I have a big target of $7.50-$8 which is a retest of the pivot. I expected to get this move over several weeks and we got it in a day.

Kona Grill (KONA) close to triggering

2011-09-19T10:10:00.000-07:00

I'm looking to buy KONA above $5.20 with a stop below $4.70. This is a trade off the weekly chart so it could last several weeks. I'm looking to take profits around $7.50, near the most recent pivot high on the weekly chart. If the stop gets taken out before our entry then the trade is invalid.

Check out my Kona Grill (KONA) fundamental lesson on Seeking Alpha.

New Apple 3D Technology

2011-09-18T14:20:00.000-07:00

Apple just recently got approval for a new 3D technology that could take its devices to a whole new level. The new technology does not require glasses and could be viewed by multiple people at the same time. This of course is the challenge with current 3D technology. Apple's technology gives each viewer a different line of sight for both left and right eye. This perfects the stereoscopic image for a group of viewers watching one giant screen.

I could see Apple licensing out this technology to the movie theaters as well, this could bring a new revenue stream to the company.

This could be a huge advantage for Apple and could revolutionalize the direction of the industry. I could see this technology going into the next line up of devices and will most likely go into Apple TV sets as well. These new Apple TV sets are expected to launch in December 2012.

Keep an eye out for my article on Seeking Alpha that goes over the huge potential of Apple TV.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Breakout Underway

2011-09-17T12:03:00.000-07:00

I'm now bullish on the Nasdaq (QQQ) after the breakout of the range. I have been waiting for the market to breakout or breakdown from the trading range. That move finally took place with Nasdaq breaking the high around $55.70.

I will view the next pullback as a buying opportunity for a swing trade. The pullback must stay above $52.50 that will create a higher low in the chart. A swing trade is a trade that lasts several days.

The blue arrow shows Nasdaq breaking above the 200 daily MA as well as breaking above the trading range of the last few weeks. I like the fact that the QQQ's have created a higher low with each pullback.

The weekly chart shows how Nasdaq has held up during the last pullback near the $50 support area. I like how the market has held up in an area that was a prior resistance point for the market. Whenever a resistance point is broken, it often turns into a support area. If Nasdaq (QQQ) breaks above the $60 area and holds, I will look for further gains. I will look to move my long term portfolio back into the market at that point.

Market Is Looking For Direction

2011-09-11T22:08:00.000-07:00

Nasdaq

The QQQ's has failed to find a direction in the market and continues to be rangebound. I'm still leaning bearish but I'm not yet ready to commit to long term shorts just yet. I want to see a breakout or breakdown before I commit to a bias.

Support is the $50 area and resistance is at $55.50, I want to see a daily close above or below for me to consider that area to be broken. I marked the key areas with green arrows.

European concerns are still a drag on the market and could finally push the market enough to breakdown. I recently moved 70% of my long term portfolio into cash (Composed of 50% T-Bills/50% TIPS) to position for a move down. If the lows break I expect a large move down which could take us to the $44 area in the QQQ's.

Europe is in a tough situation which I don't think will end well. EU has yet to agree on terms on how to handle Greece's bailout situation. If the EU were to fail to agree I could see risk off trades back in play which could lead the metals higher once again. I will keep an eye on this situation to look for opportunities to trade.

Avon

Our Avon (AVP) trade is still in play but is real close to stopping out. Normally I like to see a bounce occur much faster, but the market has been pretty choppy last few days.

Position Update

2011-08-29T09:37:00.000-07:00

LULU

If you took the LULU trade you got stopped out when the stop got taken out.

AVP

AVP stop held in and is still in play. AVP is trying to break the most recent high and if it gets taken out we could see the $24 area.

LULU Second Move Down

2011-08-26T06:25:00.000-07:00

Looks like we are getting our second move down on LULU. I have been bearish on LULU and think they still have a long way to go down. You can read my write up, Lululemon look out below. What I don't like about this setup is you might run into the 200ma which may become a support so if it can't break that moving average, take the position off. You could use $53.52 as your stop if you want to try a short. I think I would take some off if I could get 2X my risk and as usual I will trail with a breakeven stop once I'm up $3 on this stock.

LULU was once a high flyer on wall street and any time the market realizes that growth will slow down the stock is usually severely punished. I think that same thing will happen to LULU.

Apple Profits Booked

2011-08-25T13:34:00.000-07:00

The Apple trade worked perfectly as expected. I felt the selling was over done and if you followed our plan you would have made money. Apple opened alittle above the area we wanted ideally but you could have entered on the breakout in the $360 area. You had to enter in premarket trading in order to get in. Here is Apple premarket:

Apple traded as high as $375 way past our minimum target.

I don't think we'll get a trade in Apple like this again for a long time. This is one of those rare instances where the market was completely over reacting and astute traders could take advantage of it.

Apple sell off on Steve Jobs news, great buying opportunity

2011-08-24T23:40:00.000-07:00

Apple sold off as much as 7% in after hours trading on news that Steve Jobs is stepping down as CEO. It appears the fears may be a bit over done and I think you could take advantage of a gap down into support on Apple. I will look to buy one lot of Apple on a gap down in the $355 down to the 350 area. I would buy two lots of Apple at the 200ma which is around $343. I will also look to add on a buy setup if I get a good buy pattern. I will use the $339 area as my stop so be sure to position size correctly to your risk. I would like to see support first before buying if we gap below $350. This trade is also invalid if it trades below $339 before we are able to buy. I marked support and buy areas with green arrows.

If we get a buy from the $350 area, I would like to target the $360-365 area. Be sure to properly trail the position and move stop to breakeven once your 3-4 points in the money.

AVP near 20ma target

2011-08-24T23:19:00.000-07:00

Our AVP trade is doing well heading towards our 20ma target. If you used a tight stop under $21, you would have gotten dinked out on the failure to hold above the 8ma. If you used the $20 stop, which is the low of the pivot, you should still be in. AVP came close to breaking the low but it held in.

The 20ma should be a good first target but I think there is more room to run if it could break above it. I'm not gonna give AVP to much room because of the volatility in the market. I would take at least a third of the position off on a test of the 20ma and move the stop on the rest of the position to breakeven.

I will also move the current stop to 20.47 to tighten up the risk. I marked the stop loss area with a red arrow in the chart.

What a killer Goldman Short

2011-08-22T13:07:00.000-07:00

Too bad my followers did get a chance to participate in this sell off.

It dropped 6 points right after I submitted my writeup to Seeking Alpha. I finished my article at 3:14pm.

I didn't expect this big a selloff but when you position yourself correctly, sometimes you get rewarded.

AVP nice daytrade with a tight stop

2011-08-15T23:47:00.000-07:00

AVP is a buy at this price at $21.78. After chopping around for several days AVP finally made a strong move that it is ready to try a relief rally. I'm looking for AVP to get back to it's daily 20MA around the $24 area over the next few days. If you want an aggressive stop you may place it below the $21 area or if you want to give yourself alittle more room you may place it below $20.

I marked the entry with a green arrow and possible stop areas with the red arrows. You can learn more about my strategies in the swing trade lessons section.

QQQ following through with our rally

2011-08-15T23:28:00.000-07:00

The QQQ's is following through with the rally that we have been expecting. The QQQ were very quiet in the morning session rallying late in the day to close the day at it's high. I wouldn't celebrate the rally just yet. We have some major resistance that will be coming up in the $56 area so I would expect that to be the first test. I wouldn't be surprised to see the QQQ's pull back alittle here which could actually be a bullish sign if it could create a higher low.

We want the QQQ's to break above and hold that $56 area in order to get momentum to test the highs. If we hold above we could look to test the $59 area once again. I marked the $56 resistance area with a red arrow.

I would look to take alittle profits on any longs if we get another day or two of rallies without any pullback.

Find out more about this QQQ Daytrade.

QQQ's weak rally

2011-08-12T23:48:00.000-07:00

The market pulled off a quiet rally today without much volatility. This week was one of the markets most volatile weeks in history which made it very difficult to get a read on the market. We got a small gap this morning that didn't get much follow through. I still think we could continue with this bounce that we are getting in the market but I wouldn't be surprised if we chopped around here while the market consolidates the extreme volatility we have been experiencing. I believe on the top side we could get near the $55 area which could serve as a strong resistance area going into an options expiration week.

The market still seems weak and I believe it's still to early to decide which direction the market wants to go to open swing trades. Daytrades are the best way to go for now. You want to stay nimble until the odds move back into your favor and you have a good feel on the market.

Find out more at investanomics.com

Failure to hold a break on QQQ

2011-08-11T23:45:00.000-07:00

The QQQ's has failed to hold on to highs after the break of the $53 area. This shows there is heavy selling pressure and it looks like the market could have a rough time recovering losses. I was looking for swing plays that could take advantage of a market bounce and couldn't find any good risk/reward trades. The market is just to volatile to take swing trades at this point so daytrades come in handy in staying nimble and bringing in profits. I posted a couple day trades on SODA and CREE earlier today that worked to perfect. This type of enviornment is where it pays to be an all around investor and trader taking advantage of the different waves of opportunity the market provides.

I believe if the market could break and hold above the $53.50 area in the QQQ's, we could see the market try to test the upper resistance near $56. Any failure and break below $50 in the QQQ's at this point is a very bearish sign which will bring alot of panicked sellers into the market since at this point. There are many stops sitting below the $50 area and a break of that area will change my bias to bearish.

I definitely have my shopping list out and looking for opportunities to take advantage of this move in my long term trades. This is a great time to watch those penny stocks and target those value plays.

Learn more investment lessons at investanomics.com

Money in the bank! Solid day on SODA and CREE Summary

2011-08-11T13:40:00.000-07:00

Daytrades were posted in real-time with updates. I don't usually like to post daytrades but I really liked these plays and felt that they would be excellent lessons in how to daytrade correctly while seeing them unfold before your eyes. So you get the opportunity to see what I see at the same time as the trade unfolds. It is very difficult to manage a trade and update the blog in real-time while taking pictures so I tried my best to update quickly.

Now to the summary:

CREE - Profits banked at $36.31 banking an average profit of 3X risk. This position fell alittle short of our 90 cent target area and I was to busy to update the trade here on the blog so I will just use the last post to update the blog which was when I moved the stop to $36.31 if you were following my techniques you have gotten out at $36.55.

I highlighted in green the arrows I was looking at for a trigger. The blue arrow represents the trigger and the red arrow was when the final lot was exited.

SODA - Exited the final piece at $46.95 bringing our profits to an average of $4/share. This is about 1.3X our risk but had an opportunity to trail it tighter when you hit $48.48 but again wasn't able to update the trade in the blog so I just used my last post to update the trade here.

The blue arrow was the trigger and the red arrow was when the final trade was exited. It took us two looks until we got the right trigger since the first look was invalidated by taking out the low first before rallying which is my first post on this trade.

Like my comment yesterday on the market it is not uncommon to see a retest of the lows in stocks as well as in the market before the rally comes. The key is knowing which one to take.

I base my returns off multiples of risk because I believe that if I'm right just 50% of the time but average more than 1X my risk then over time I will make more money. So if I could get 2X or 3X risk on half my trades then I could make good money.

Learn these strategies and more at investanomics.com

CREE Profits in the bank on a nice daytrade

2011-08-11T12:20:00.000-07:00

Banked 3x risk on CREE with a tight stop. move stop to breakeven at 36.11 sold 3/4ths of my position in the high 30 cent area. On these type of breakout plays I like to use tight entries to maximize returns. You have to let your winners run and worst case scenario the rest of the trade takes you out breakeven. Close the position near the end of day if our 5 min trail doesn't take us out.

There's a reason why I watched CREE all day to get the trigger and why the breakout was successful. Learn the techniques at investanomics.com

UPDATE:

Take profits on rest of position in CREE in the $46.90 - $47 areas stop now $46.31