Aditi and Ganesh's Blog

March 2012 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

2012-02-08T22:53:00.000-06:00

March 2012 Visa Bulletin was released today and the priority dates are 01 MAY 10 for EB2 India and 22 AUG 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 01 MAY 10 for EB2 and 01 JAN 05 for EB3.
EB2 India date has moved 4 months while EB3 India has moved 7 days compared to last visa bulletin.

The rapid movement of dates is a very welcoming news for all those who have filed under EB2 India. The folks who have priority date from 01 JAN 2010 and earlier than 01 MAY 10 will be able to file their I-485 from March 1.

Next Visa Bulletin will be a good yard stick to see what will happen for the rest of the fiscal year. Given the fact that, this is the month where all the folks with Priority date of 2009 will file for their I-485 as per the Feb 2012 visa bulletin. As we have seen a slow movement compared to last one, I feel that it is going to either stop or retrogress in April 2012 visa bulletin. Unlike the previous visa bulletins, no prediction is offered by the DOS itself, in this Visa Bulletin.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the March 2012 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

I-485 Inventory Jan 2012

2012-02-04T11:59:00.000-06:00

Yesterday, USCIS published the I-485 inventory as of 12 Jan 2012. This is the first for this fiscal year gives the end of fiscal year 2011 inventory.

According to Jan 2012 inventory, there are about 12,950 EB2 India I-485 applications pending who have priority date of 31-Jan-12 or earlier. It also says 51,160 EB3 India applications are pending who have priority date of 31-Aug-07 or earlier.

Looking at the EB2 India data, looks like the demand is infact low. This fiscal year started with 15-Apr-07 as priority date.In Oct 2011 Visa Bulletin it moved to 15JUL07, then it moved to 01NOV07 in Nov 2011, then it moved to 15MAR08 in Dec 2011, from there it moved to 01JAN09 in Jan 2012 and now in Feb 2012 Visa Bulletin is it at 01JAN10. Given this, for the inventory as of 12 Jan 2012, we could expect most of the folks who had priority date earlier than 15MAR08 would have filed by then. But, remaining 2008 Priority Date folks would have been still filing and 3,701 number for 2008 is fully expected to double or more. 34 count with Priority Date of JAN 09 might be an error since 2009 folks could file only in Feb 2012. Most of the movement happened in Jan and Feb visa bulletin. So, the next inventory release might be more useful than this to judge the demand number. But, what it tells us is during the Nov 07, Dec 07, Jan 08 and Feb 08 months the numbers are not in thousand but under 750. This is very less compared to previous months.

Capitol Immigration Law Group PLLC has published a news article on their meeting with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. According to this, EB2 India dates will move for about 6 months in March 2012 visa bulletin, citing the very low number of I-485 filings than expected. That is a very good news for EB2 folks.

As for EB3 India, we can expect around 2800 Green Cards to be given every year and the I-485 inventory to move at that rate, unless there is a law change.

To view the I-485 Data from USCIS website -- Please Click Here

Capitol Immigration Law Group PLLC News -- Please Click Here

I am Current, when will I get my green card

2012-01-09T16:26:00.012-06:00

In FY 2010, 19,961 green cards were given for folks under EB2 - India category. In FY 2009, it was 10,106 and in FY 2008 it was 14,806.

For this year, let us take the higher end and keep it as 20,000. Let us assume there are 1500 applications every month under EB2 India category. The fiscal year started with 15 Apr 2007 as priority date. Given this, folks will get GC for priority date in next 13 months (20,000/1500). Normally, about 10%, say 2000 were consular processing cases. This gives a number of about 12 months. So, by end of September 2012, my guesstimate is folks with 15 Apr 2008 or earlier will get their green card through EB2 India category.

This has lot of assumptions -- spillover data from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2 ROW -- to give the 20000 number; number of consular processing cases and number of cases per month. Depending on these numbers, the priority date movement will vary. It will be a good news, if more folks with later priority dates, get their green card by 30 September 2012.

We have to wait and watch :)

The above numbers will become more concrete after we get the next set of I-485 inventory data from USCIS and the FY 2011 visa statistics report from U.S. Department of State.

To give a perspective, in July 2007 and August 2007, all the categories were made current to have a pipeline of cases. Folks who applied for I-485 during that period are still waiting for green card. It will be the same this time as well. All USCIS is doing now, is making the pipeline ready -- getting I-485 applications so that, they can do the FBI name check, ask folks to go and do finger printing, check all the documents and send RFEs if required and so on. This way if the demand is actually low or new laws come in place, they don't have to waste any numbers, when it comes to end of fiscal year -- 30 Sept 2012. USCIS has been very good in maintaining the numbers for the last few years.

To view the Visa Statistics by U.S. Department of State -- Click Here

Feb 2012 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

2012-01-06T16:12:00.007-06:00

Feb 2012 Visa Bulletin was released today and the priority dates are 01 JAN 10 for EB2 India and 15 AUG 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 01 JAN 10 for EB2 and 01 DEC 04 for EB3.

EB2 India moved from 01 JAN 09 in January Visa Bulletin to 01 Jan 10 in Feb. The EB3 India has moved 7 days compared to last visa bulletin.

EB2 India movement is a good news for all the folks whose priority date is in 2009. It has moved one year, covering the whole of 2009. Given this type of movement, retrogression at some point in this fiscal year is absolutely necessary. They say this in the visa bulletin link given below and they also predict the movement for EB3,

"Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: up to one month
China: up to one month
India: up to two weeks "

The demand numbers for this month was released earlier and it shows real low numbers for EB2 India. I still don't understand the rationale behind moving the dates for another year. They highlight the low demand as a reason. I am guessing they will get enough application this month and they will retrogress the dates for EB2 India in March 2012 Visa Bulletin. But, given the movement we have seen in the last few visa bulletins, anything can happen.

Good part about all this is, folks whose priority dates are in 2008 and 2009, can apply for I-485 and apply for EADs for them and their spouses and it gives them little more freedom than being on H visa or L visa. It is a good stream of revenue for USCIS as well. So, it is kind of a win-win situation.

But, I don't expect all the EB2 India folks to get their green card this year, who have their priority date in 2008 or 2009. Atleast, not under current law.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the Feb 2012 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

January 2012 Visa Bulletin and analysis

2011-12-09T10:35:00.011-06:00

January 2012 Visa Bulletin was released today and the priority dates are 01 JAN 09 for EB2 India and 08 AUG 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 01 JAN 09 for EB2 and 15 OCT 04 for EB3.

EB2 India moved from 15 MAR 08 in December Visa Bulletin to 01 JAN 09 in January Visa Bulletin. The EB3 India has moved 7 days compared to last visa bulletin.

EB2 India movement is a good news for all the folks whose priority date is in 2008. It has moved 9.5 months, covering the whole of 2008. Given this type of movement, retrogression at some point in this fiscal year is absolutely necessary. They say this in the visa bulletin link given below,

"D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit. "

The demand numbers for this month is not released yet. So, for EB2 India, we do not know the actual numbers. But, it is very surprising that USCIS is moving the dates at this speed and they say, they don't have enough applications to meet the fiscal year quota needs. On an average, there are about 2500 applications each month for EB2 India, after 15 APR 07 (the last date on sept 2011 visa bulletin). The 20 months movement for this Fiscal Year which started from Oct 2011 visa bulletin will give USCIS about 50000 applications. Given that for last few years, USCIS have been giving about 20000 green cards for EB2 India, 50K should be a very good number, unless USCIS wants to keep a very large pipeline of applications. So, retrogression is surely going to happen, but when and how far back it will go is to be seen.

To view the January 2012 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

H-1B Cap Reached

2011-11-23T14:29:00.002-06:00

USCIS started updating accepting applications for H1b visa on April 1, 2011. This is for Fiscal Year 2012, that starts on October 1, 2011.

USCIS provided an update today, that it has received enough applications to cover this year's quota, as per the below website:

"On November 22, 2011, USCIS received a sufficient number of petitions to reach the statutory cap for FY 2012. USCIS also received more than 20,000 H-1B petitions on behalf of persons exempt from the cap under the advanced degree exemption as of October 19, 2011. USCIS will reject cap-subject petitions for new H-1B specialty occupation workers seeking an employment start date in FY 2012 that are received after November 22, 2011.

USCIS continues to accept cap-exempt petitions, DOD petitions and Chile/Singapore H-1B1 petitions requesting an employment start date in FY 2012."

It is important to note that, for the previous fiscal year the cap was reached on Jan 26, 2011, while it is Nov 22, 2011 for this fiscal year.

Below is the timeline for the previous years, when the H1b quota was over:

FY 2011: Cap reached on Jan 26, 2011

FY 2010: Cap reached on Dec 21, 2009

FY 2009: Cap reached first week, lottery on April 8, 2008.

FY 2008: Cap reached first day, lottery on April 4, 2007. Advanced degree cap reached on April 30, 2007

FY 2007: Cap reached on May 26, 2006. Advance Degree cap reached on July 26, 2006

More details and latest updates: http://www.uscis.gov/h-1b_count

H1b Quota - Almost over

2011-11-22T22:35:00.004-06:00

USCIS started updating accepting applications for H1b visa on April 1, 2011. This is for Fiscal Year 2012, that starts on October 1, 2011.

USCIS provided an update today, on the number of applications it has received. As of Nov 18, 2011, it has received 61,800 applications towards the general H1b quota of 68,000 and 20,000 towards the advanced cap, masters quota, of 20,000.

Given this, the masters quota has already been exhausted. It was sooner than the last year. The general cap is also following the same trend.

The total H1b cap is expected to be exhausted before the end of this month.

Below is the timeline for the previous years, when the H1b quota was over:

FY 2011: Cap reached on Jan 26, 2011

FY 2010: Cap reached on Dec 21, 2009

FY 2009: Cap reached first week, lottery on April 8, 2008.

FY 2008: Cap reached first day, lottery on April 4, 2007. Advanced degree cap reached on April 30, 2007

FY 2007: Cap reached on May 26, 2006. Advance Degree cap reached on July 26, 2006

More details and latest updates: http://www.uscis.gov/h-1b_count

Oct 2011 I-485 Inventory and EB India Analysis

2011-10-28T09:15:00.007-05:00

Couple of days back, USCIS published the I-485 inventory as of 1 Oct 2011. This gives the end of fiscal year 2011 inventory.

According to Oct 2011 inventory, there are about 8,965 EB2 India I-485 applications pending who have priority date of 31-Aug-07 or earlier. It also says 51,758 EB3 India applications are pending for the same time. Comparing this to Oct 2010 data, there were about 24,254 EB2 and 56,640 EB3 India applications are pending for the same time. Looks of it, roughly about 2000 applicants "upgraded" from Eb3 to EB2. Also, about 25000 green cards have been given to EB2 India. But, we have to wait for the actual numbers to be released by State.

Capitol Immigration Law Group PLLC has published a news article on their meeting with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. According to this, EB2 India dates will move to March 2008 or later in December 2011 visa bulletin.

As for EB3 India, we can expect around 2800 Green Cards to be given every year, unless there is a law change. Good News is that, the law change is very possible soon. Yesterday, the House Judiciary Committee, passed H.R.3012 - Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act. Next step is for the full House to take this up and then it will go to Senate and then to President for his signature. This bill effectively removes the per country cap and will have the most effect on EB3 India category. If passed, I think the EB3 India dates can move to 01-June-2005 by end of this fiscal year 2012, given the inventory of all the countries till that date.

To view the I-485 Data -- Click Here

Capitol Immigration Law Group PLLC News - Click Here

H1b Quota Update - 12 Oct 2011

2011-10-12T14:56:00.003-05:00

Given this, the masters quota is getting exhausted sooner than the last year while the general cap is little slower. If the same trend continues, the overall quota might get over sooner than last fiscal year.

Below is the timeline for the previous years, when the H1b quota was over:

FY 2011: Cap reached on Jan 26, 2011

FY 2010: Cap reached on Dec 21, 2009

FY 2009: Cap reached first week, lottery on April 8, 2008.

FY 2008: Cap reached first day, lottery on April 4, 2007. Advanced degree cap reached on April 30, 2007

FY 2007: Cap reached on May 26, 2006. Advance Degree cap reached on July 26, 2006

More details and latest updates: http://www.uscis.gov/h-1b_count

November 2011 Visa Bulletin and analysis

2011-10-05T16:55:00.004-05:00

November 2011 Visa Bulletin was released today and the priority dates are 01 NOV 07 for EB2 India and 22 JUL 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 01 NOV 07 for EB2 and 22 AUG 04 for EB3.

EB2 India moved from 15 JUL 07 in October Visa Bulletin to 01 NOV 07 in November Visa Bulletin. The EB3 India has moved 7 days compared to last visa bulletin.

First surprise is that they released the visa bulletin today as oppose to 8th or 9th of every month. Second is that the EB2 India movement. As mentioned in the earlier blog, the October visa bulletin could not have generated enough application pipeline for EB2 India category. Now, moving the date to 01 NOV 07 might generate about 3500 more applications. But, if it generates more demand than the number of visas given in previous years, they may retrogress. They say this in the visa bulletin link given below,

"D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility. "

The demand numbers were also released today. It states that as of 5 OCT 2011, there are 3,000 I-485 applications pending under EB2 India category, compared to 5,000 last month. It also says there are 53,650 pending applications under EB3 India category compared to 54,000 last month. Theoretically, most of the EB3 India numbers are capable of porting to EB2. So, it is a number to keep a watch. Also, this is the start of new Fiscal Year - FY 2012.

Another number to keep watch is EB5 visa category. EB2 benefits a lot from the spill over in EB5 category. But this year, the White House and the USCIS has taken EB5 very seriously. Even last month, they have been advertising and publicizing it, in all the countries. I read in newspapers such as "The Hindu" and "Times of India" that they have conducted workshops in various cities in India, to attract investors under this program. If this gains momentum to fully utilize the number, then it will bring down the 20,000 odd EB2 India green card numbers.

Now, the question is, how long is the date going to stay at 01 NOV 07 or move ahead or retrogress. Given all above, my guesstimate is the dates will move forward again for about a month in December visa bulletin.

Best case scenario is USCIS will keep this date or keep moving forward for another 6 months, then the spill over will be favorable for EB2 India and hence, there won't be any retrogressing the date. The worst case will be USCIS realizes its demand is more than the available visa numbers, so the date will go back to 15 APR 07.

To view the November 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

To view the demand data as of October 5, 2011 -- Click Here

October 2011 Visa Bulletin and analysis

2011-09-10T12:36:00.012-05:00

October 2011 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday and the priority dates are 15 JUL 07 for EB2 India and 15 JUL 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 15 JUL 07 for EB2 and 08 AUG 04 for EB3.

EB2 India moved from 15 APR 07 in September visa bulletin to 15 JUL 07. The EB3 India has moved 7 days compared to last visa bulletin.

There goes the predictions again. Given the history of last 2 years and given the fact that FY 2012 starts in Oct 2011 for USCIS, I thought the dates will stay put for EB2 India as it was in the last visa bulletin. But, USCIS and DOS has a different calculation. They say this in the visa bulletin link given below,

"China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

What I do not understand is, if USCIS wants to build the pipeline, the dates should have gone to 01 SEP 07, this way all those with AUG 07 priority date who have not been able to file during 2007 can file their 485s. My estimate is about 1500 applications for that. But now with 15 JUL 07, the extra applications is going to be minimal - the folks who got married later and want to add dependents to their primary application.

The demand numbers were released by state department earlier this month. It states that as of 8 September 2011, there are 5,000 I-485 applications pending under EB2 India category, compared to 4,925 last month. It also says there are 54,000 pending applications under EB3 India category compared to 55,250 last month. Theoretically, most of the EB3 India numbers are capable of porting to EB2. So, it is a number to keep a watch.

Now, question for this month is, how long is the date going to stay at 15 JUL 07. As we can clearly see, there are about 4200 new applicants will be covered in this who have priority date after 15 APR 07, and who have already filed. This is based on the previous available inventory and from the demand numbers. Also, as the demand data indicates there is good amount of porting happening from EB3 to EB2. Given all this, my guess is as follows: Best case scenario is USCIS will keep this date for another 6 months, then the spill over will be favorable for EB2 India and hence, there won't be any retrogressing the date. The worst case will be USCIS realizes its demand next month and there is more porting, so the date will go back to 15 APR 07.

To view the October 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

To view the demand data as of September 8, 2011 -- Click Here

September Visa Bulletin and Analysis

2011-08-23T07:36:00.012-05:00

September 2011 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month and the priority dates are 15 APR 07 for EB2 India and 08 JUL 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 15 APR 07 for EB2 and 15 JUL 04 for EB3.

EB2 India stayed at 15 APR 07. The EB3 India has moved a month and 7 days compared to last visa bulletin.

It was a big disappointment for everyone. Lot of folks were expecting EB2 India to become current. Personally, I was expecting it to move at-least till 01-Jul-07. All the predictions went down the drain.

The reduction in pace for EB2 India movement, might be due to larger number of porting from EB3 to EB2. The number of cases in consular processing would have also caused this. All my calculations were based on availability of 30,000 green cards for EB2 India category through spillover from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 other countries. We have to wait for another 3 months for USCIS to release the actual number of green cards given under difference categories.

The demand numbers were released by state department earlier this month. It states that as of 8 August 2011, there are 4,925 I-485 applications pending under EB2 India category. It also says there are 55,250 pending applications under EB3 India category. Theoretically, most of the EB3 India numbers are capable of porting to EB2. So, it is a number to keep a watch.

Now, the bigger question is when will the EB2 dates move again. FY 2012 - the new fiscal year starts on 1-Oct-11. Last year (FY 2011), the EB2 India stayed on 08-May-06 from Oct 2010 to Apr 2011 visa bulletin. The first movement was seen in May 2011 visa bulletin. The year before that (FY 2010), the EB2 India dates stayed on 22-JAN-05 from Oct 2009 to Feb 2010 visa bulletin. Given this and the porting from EB3 to EB2, I don't expect the dates to move for at-least another 4 months. I will be glad if it moves from Feb 2012 visa bulletin onwards. Realistically I think it will move only in April 2012 bulletin. But, given the September visa bulletin, you will never know.

To view the September 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

To view the demand data as of August 8, 2011 -- Click Here

H1b quota update

2011-08-03T18:24:00.005-05:00

USCIS started updating accepting applications for H1b visa on April 1, 2011. This is for Fiscal Year 2012, that starts on October 1, 2011.

USCIS recently provided update on the number of applications it has received. End of July, 2011, it has received 22,700 applications towards the general H1b quota of 68,000 and 13,800 towards the advanced cap, masters quota, of 20,000.

For the same time last year, USCIS had received 27,300 towards general quota and 11,600 towards the masters quota.

Below is the timeline for the previous years, when the H1b quota was over:

FY 2011: Cap reached on Jan 26, 2011

FY 2010: Cap reached on Dec 21, 2009

FY 2009: Cap reached first week, lottery on April 8, 2008.

FY 2008: Cap reached first day, lottery on April 4, 2007. Advanced degree cap reached on April 30, 2007

FY 2007: Cap reached on May 26, 2006. Advance Degree cap reached on July 26, 2006

I am very curious to see how long it will go, for this Fiscal Year.

More details and latest updates: http://www.uscis.gov/h-1b_count

August 2011 - Visa Bulletin

2011-07-12T16:03:00.008-05:00

August 2011 Visa Bulletin is out and the priority dates are 15 APR 07 for EB2 India and 01 JUN 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 15 APR 07 for EB2 and 08 JUL 04 for EB3.

The India EB2 number has moved from 08 MAR 07 to 15 APR 07. The EB3 India has moved a month compared to 8 days movement in the last visa bulletin.

My Prediction was it will move to 1-may-07 in august bulletin and 1-aug-07 in september bulletin, as per my older blog -- I-485 inventory update and EB India analysis . But to the disaapointment EB2 India has moved only to 15-APR-07. I still hope, it will come to 01-AUG-07 by september bulletin.

The reduction is pace for EB2 India movement, might be due to larger number of portings from EB3 to EB2.

To view the August 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

July Visa Bulletin -- EB2 India 08 MAR 07

2011-06-09T17:38:00.003-05:00

July 2011 Visa Bulletin is out and the priority dates are 08 MAR 07 for EB2 India and 01 MAY 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 01 Jul 04 for EB3 and 08 MAR 07for EB2.

The India EB2 number has moved to 08 MAR 07 from 15 OCT 06. The EB3 India has moved 8 days from the last visa bulletin -- that was pretty much expected.

This is a very good news for EB2 India. It is on-track with the predictions that most of the existing EB2 I-485 filed during July 2007 and August 2007 will be cleared. Looks like the spillover is working in EB2 India's favor. Lets hope it will cross 01-AUG-07 by september bulletin.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change.

To view the July 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

I-485 inventory update and EB India analysis

2011-05-31T22:19:00.012-05:00

USCIS finally released the much awaited I-485 inventory. It says the application status is of June 2011, but the data was released on May 26,2011. I guess the data is of May 15,2011 or earlier.

According to this, there are about 22,536 EB2 India I-485 applications pending who have priority date of 31-Aug-07 or earlier. It also says 57,119 EB3 India applications are pending for the same time.

Assuming that the data is correct, it shows, roughly about 1500 applicants have "upgraded" from EB3 to EB2. This is a good sign since USCIS thought the number to be very high.

Earlier, USCIS had announced that there might be 12000 or more green cards, available to be given to EB2-India and EB2-China applicants, from the unused (less demand) EB1 categories. Last year, EB2-India category got about 20000 without any spillover from EB1 category. Assuming EB2 India will get about 30000 this year, the dates are expected to move fast the next 3 visa bulletins for this fiscal year.

My estimate is that, EB2 India dates will move to 1-Feb-07 in July 2011 visa bulletin, 1-May-07 in August 2011 visa bulletin and 1-Aug-07 in September 2011 visa bulletin.

Caution is to be taken while assuming the correctness of the data. I can understand the decrease in EB3 India numbers in few years, but cannot understand the increase in number for 2006 and 2007. Also, the predictions are mainly based out of 2 -- one is the availability of 30000 data and the "upgrade" number. Another factor to consider will be the number of dependents to be added to the data as and when the applicant's priority date becomes current.

As for EB3 India, we can expect around 2800 Green Cards to be given every year, unless there is a law change.

To view the Original PDF Data -- Click Here

June 2011 Visa Bulletin - EB2 India 15 OCT 06

2011-05-12T11:06:00.001-05:00

June 2011 Visa Bulletin is out and the priority dates are 15 Oct 06 for EB2 India and 22 Apr 02 for EB3 India. For china the numbers are 15 Apr 04 for EB3 and 15 Oct 06 for EB2.

The India EB2 number has been 08 May 06 from September 2010 bulletin. Finally, we saw 2 months of movement for EB2 India in May 2011 Visa Bulletin. Now we have seen another 3.5 months. Hope this continues. The EB3 India has moved 7 days from the last visa bulletin -- that was pretty much expected.

This month's visa bulletin indicates that, the "upgrade" is less than expected, from EB3 to EB2 category applicants who has their chargeability country as India. It also says that the per country/category quota for EB2 India is already exhausted and it is already on the spillover track. Last month, USCIS have indicated the reduction in EB1 demand and most of the spill over benefitting Eb2 India. Given all this, I guess we will see more movement for EB2 India in the coming bulletins. We will have to wait and see what the actual numbers turn out to be. But, to be on safer side, the visa bulletin also indicates that if the "upgrade" demand increases, they might have to slow, stop or retrogress.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change.

To view the June 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

May 2011 Visa Bulletin -- finally some movement

2011-04-08T16:08:00.004-05:00

May 2011 Visa Bulletin is out and the priority dates are 01 Jul 06 for EB2 India and 15 Apr 02 for EB3 India. For china the numbers are 01 Mar 04 for EB3 and 22 Jul 06 for EB2.

The India EB2 number has been 08 May 06 from September 2010 bulletin. Finally, we have seen almost 2 months worth of movement in EB2 India. The EB3 India has moved 7 days from the last visa bulletin -- thaw was pretty much expected.

It is a happy news to see movement in the EB2 India dates. I guess we will see more movement for EB2 India in the coming bulletins as USCIS have indicated the reduction in EB1 demand and most of the spill over benefitting Eb2 India We will have to wait and see what the actual numbers turns out to be. It will interesting to see if FY 2011 , can get 19,000 Green Cards for EB2 India, like last year or more than that.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change.

To view the May 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

FY 2012 -- H1b season begins

2011-04-08T13:05:00.004-05:00

USCIS started accepting applications for H1b on April 1, 2011 for the Fiscal Year 2012. The actual start on the H1b applications will be October 1, 2011 or later.

Today, USCIS released the first set on the number of applications they received. As of April 7, 2011. They have received 5,900 applications towards the 65,000 maximum regular H1b quota and 4,500 applications towards the 20,000 maximum advanced degree h1b quota.

More details: http://www.uscis.gov/h-1b_count

April 2011 Visa Bulletin

2011-03-09T11:08:00.004-06:00

April 2011 Visa Bulletin is out and the priority dates are 08 May 06 for EB2 India and 08 Apr 02 for EB3 India. For china the numbers are 01 Mar 04 for EB3 and 22 Jul 06 for EB2.

The India EB2 number has been 08 May 06 from September 2010 bulletin. The EB3 India has moved 21 days from the last visa bulletin and has moved about 3 months since October 2010 visa bulletin.

It is very interesting and disappointing that there is no movement in the EB2 India dates. One prediction is that it will start moving only in the last quarter of this fiscal year, which will start from July 2011 bulletin and it will move significantly. Lets hope atleast that happens. But other side, I read, there has been significant number of folks porting from EB3 India to EB2 India, that is why there is no movement in dates. Either way, we will have to wait and see.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change.

To view the April 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

Mar 2011 Visa Bulletin and analysis on India numbers

2011-02-11T13:56:00.010-06:00

March 2011 Visa Bulletin is out and the priority dates are 08 May 06 for EB2 India and 15 Mar 02 for EB3 India. For china the numbers are 01 JAN 04 for EB3 and 08 JUL 06 for EB2.

The India EB2 number has been 08 May 06 from September 2010 bulletin. The EB3 India has moved 21 days from the last visa bulletin and has moved 1 month and 28 days since October 2010 visa bulletin.

I was bit disappointed to see EB2 not moving even in this month. I was hoping for it to move little bit. I still feel, EB2 India will move forward quite a bit, by Sept 2011 -- may be to 01 APR 2007.

Department of state has released the number of green cards issued last year. 6,741 who were under EB1 India; 19,961 from EB2 India and 2,856 from EB3 India. This is the first time the numbers are so high in EB1 and EB2 India categories. If the same visas are given this year also on EB2 India category, then the backlog will reduced a lot in that category.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change.

To view the March 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here
To view the number of Green Cards issued last year -- Click Here

2011 h1b cap reached

2011-01-29T20:46:00.003-06:00

According to the news published on the USCIS Website , it has received enough applications against the annual quota of 65,000 in the regular category, as of 26 JAN 2011. In the 20,000 cap exempt advanced degree quota, USCIS had already received 20,000 petitions, as of 22 DEC 2010. So, USCIS will no longer accept any applications for the 2011 fiscal year.

Fiscal Year 2011, started on Oct 1, 2010 and will end on Sept 30, 2011. USCIS started accepting h1b petitions for this year from April 1, 2010. The next fiscal year 2012, will start on Oct 1, 2011, for this the USCIS might start accepting applications from April 1, 2011.

My friend Raghu, has a very neat table of how the number has progressed from April 1, 2010 in Happy Schools Blog -- h1b visa 2011

H1b cap almost there

2011-01-26T12:13:00.002-06:00

According to the new data published on the USCIS Website , it has received 62,800 cap eligible petition as of 21 Jan 2011, as against the annual quota of 65,000 in the regular category. In the 20,000 cap exempt advanced degree quota, USCIS had already received 20,000 petitions, couple of weeks back.

Given that there are only 2,200 applications to go, the cap might be reached this month.

Fiscal Year 2011, started on Oct 1, 2010 and will end on Sept 30, 2011. USCIS started accepting h1b petitions for this year from April 1, 2010.

My friend Raghu, has a very neat table of how the number has progressed from April 1, 2010 in Happy Schools Blog -- h1b visa 2011

Feb 2011 Visa Bulletin and analysis

2011-01-12T23:06:00.004-06:00

Feb 2011 Visa Bulletin is out and the priority dates are 08 May 06 for EB2 India and 22 FEB 02 for EB3 India. For china the numbers are 01 Jan 04 for EB3 and 01 Jul 06 for EB2.

The India EB2 number has been 08 May 06 from September 2010 bulletin. The EB3 India has moved 21 days from the last visa bulletin and has moved 1 month and 7 days since October 2010 visa bulletin.

I still feel, EB2 India will move forward quite a bit, by Sept 2011. Last year, in oct 09 it started with 22 JAN 05 and went all the way till 08 MAY 06. Ofcourse, the numbers were much lesser compared to this year. But, we can still expect it to go a priority date of Jan 07 by sept. This is under the assumption that they will still giving out about 13,000 Green Cards in the EB2 India category, similar to what they have done last year and the previous year. I think we will see movement from next visa bulletin onwards. Lets hope for the best !!!

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change.

Also, on the side note, earlier yesterday, the Mumbai consulate website said the cutoff date for EB2 was current. But, they were quick enough to change it to 08 MAY 06 after many emails to them, one of them from me.

H1b cap update -- Masters cap reached

2011-01-04T08:59:00.002-06:00

According to the new data published on the USCIS Website , it has received 55,800 cap eligible petition as of 24 Dec 2010, as against the annual quota of 65,000 in the regular category. In the 20,000 cap exempt advanced degree quota, USCIS has received 20,000 petitions. This means, the advanced degree quota is met, so the petitions with advanced degree will be considered in the regular category from now on.

Fiscal Year 2011, started on Oct 1, 2010 and will end on Sept 30, 2011. USCIS started accepting h1b petitions for this year from April 1, 2010.

My friend Raghu, has a very neat table of how the number has progressed from April 1, 2010 in Happy Schools Blog -- h1b visa 2011