Exterior Decorators News

1/11/11 Noon Update

2012-01-11T09:41:00.001-08:00

TREATABLE EVENT The late morning models have generally increased our snow depth chances for tonight. We have already reached the high for the day as the front has passed KCI and the official high for the day has been reached, however areas south of the river may make it to near 50 before the slow moving front passes those areas. Moisture won't be available until between 6 and 7 PM and will begin as light blowing snow with a heavier bands between 8 and midnight. The current ground temperature is 44 degrees and will quickly drop below freezing after sun set. Temperatures by morning will be in the mid teens with 40 MPH winds possibly making the morning driving conditions horrible. Within the KC area, the heaviest amounts with the latest models, appear to be in the southeast sections of the City Projected Snowfall potentials: I-29 and Barry road and areas north and west of that including the cities of Liberty, Gladstone, Kansas City North........1.25" Downtown KC, including NKC, KCK.......1.5" Olathe, Leawood, Raytown, Independence....1.75" Lee's Summit, Blue Springs..............2" The first biggest treatable threat will be melting snow which may rapidly freeze by 8 PM as the snow begins to fall heavier. Provider of Kansas City's Long Range weather at. www.kclongrangeweather.com

1/11/11 the Onset of Good luck...

2012-01-11T06:53:00.001-08:00

Good Morning KC! We wanted to give you the first update, and what it may mean for us in KC. Not sure yet, more to come later. For the most part I think it is would be salt spreading event but Gary Lezak did say last night mini-blizzard. This could mean that the winds would carry snow over the lots and walks and have 2 or so inches in "areas" of lots. We will put another update out later today. LIKELY TREATABLE EVENT A strong cold front will move into Missouri today as a strong upper level storm system dives into our area. As temperatures fall this afternoon- light snow moves into NW Missouri with snow increasing in areal coverage. Snowfall accumulations are expected to be around 1/4-1/2" roughly in a line from KC to Sedailia with higher amounts north and east of that. Tonight will have strong winds, blowing snow reduced visibilities with temps into the teens. The threat is although the snow amounts are expected to be light- roads may be warm enough to initially melt the snow before temps fall enough for the roads to freeze causing icy conditions especially for untreated roadways. There are signs this morning this storm may produce more snow than currently forecasted and I'll have to update later this morning as new information comes in. Provider of Kansas City's Long Range weather at. www.kclongrangeweather.com

Good morning kc!

2011-12-08T04:46:00.001-08:00

This mornings models have somewhat trimmed back the chances for accumulating snow tonight particularly south of the river where nothing may happen. Areas north of I-70 within the KC metro, may receive 1/2" to 3/4" of light dry snow mostly after 5 PM to about midnight. The ground temperatures are expected to be at or below freezing when the snow arrives after a high today of 38. A more significant event is setting up for next Wednesday-Friday.

December 8, will it be white again?

2011-12-07T19:40:00.001-08:00

December 8th, could it be the first real snow? Models show little to no snow, some snow, but most are favoring the best chance of accumulation is North of I-70. It is 16 hours away but something that needs to be watched. We intend to give an update as soon as we have convincing evidence. For Now, North of I-70 has the best chance for accumulation...south of the river, wunderground.com is saying, slight chance. We will keep you updated.

2011-07-24T13:58:00.001-07:00

2011-07-22T07:30:00.001-07:00

Late summer is here, with scorching temps. Make sure to watch out for out friends in a bag so they don't eat your plants. Also a good time to start thinking about snow!

Event Report from the 20th-21st

2011-02-25T11:10:00.000-08:00

Below is the forecast for the event and then you will see the “summary” props to Gary Brener who is our private forecaster this season and is a local guy and not very well known but pretty accurate.
Winter Storm Warning through 6 AM Thursday
Snow is expected to arrive about noon on the Kansas side spreading over the entire area by early afternoon.
noon- 6 PM 2.1"
6 PM-midnight 4.1" [heavy snow, nearly 1" per hour]
midnite-6 AM 1.0"
Widespread 5-7" totals.
Heaviest snow is now expected from downtown towards Clinton, 6-8"
The actually SUMMARY
Rates:
1-3 PM .45" [.15" per hour]
3-6 1.40" [ nearly a 1/2" per hour]
6-9 2.25 [ 3/4" per hour]---HEAVIEST SNOW
9-M 2.10 [ about 3/4" per hour]
M-3A .54 [.18 per hour]
3-6 .39 [.13 per hour]
Average snow totals: 7.13"
On some of your invoices you will see that we did a refreeze on 1/21 early am, then this band of snow was predicted to come and give us and 1” of snow. So even though we spread salt earlier and on some sites spot treated, if we spot treated we went back and did a full spread. We have discounted some invoices where applicable.
Here was the result of the 1/21 snow that really never occurred but regardless the ground and air temp validated the treatment, see below.
Most of the scattered snow showers this morning have clipped on through the area and some are expected to wrap back around later this afternoon will less than 1" on average.
10 AM....air 17', ground 25'
current....air 21', ground 27'

Another Storm, couldn't be?!

2011-02-07T11:15:00.001-08:00

Well, well, what do we have here? Going to get pounded again, a dusting, 2-3" or just miss us? Let me guess, its too far out to tell! More updates as the storm approaches.

The two main snow forecast models still have a major disagreement with only 24 hours to go.

The MDL is showing 4-6" across the Kansas City area with 6-8" further southwest.

The local NWS office in Pleasant Hill is offering 2.8" using the Garcia model for now.

A private forecast model that I pay for is showing the 4-6" nearly direct hit and given the fact that model is already 9 hours old, I'd have to rule it out at the moment and lean towards the local NWS predictions. I also didn't use that model in this mornings email because it was going against all thinking at the time.

The problem with forecasting the amount of snow this time is a different in that cold air is already in place with two more fronts to come through before and during tomorrow's snow. This raises the snow potential to nearly 1:18, meaning that as little as 1/4" liquid = 4.5" snow. Most snow ratios are 1:10 = 2.5" [thus, the model differences].

Having explained all the above, I am sticking with this mornings emailed forecast of a local average of the 2.8" with increasing heavier amounts as you go further southwest. Northeast areas such as Liberty and Excelsior Springs may actually not get anything at all.

I'll send out other final Monday update later this afternoon with snow timing and updated amounts projected.

KC Long Range Weather, www.kclongrangeweather.com

Who has the Sled? Or shall I say who has power?

2011-01-31T18:29:00.000-08:00

Right now, the snowfall looks to be 10-13" across the KC area and nearby area with the 10" being in northern Leavenworth County and 13" in the south eastern part of Jackson County-- Making downtown KC 11-12".

Snow timing:

Monday Monday Tuesday Tuesday Tuesday Tuesday Wednesday

12-6 P 6P-12 12- 6 A 6 A-noon noon-6 P 6 P- 12 12-6 AM

Downtown 0 .25" .50" 2.8" 5.4" 2.7" .25" Total 11.9"

rates per hour 0 .04" .08" .47" .90" .45" .04"

HERE we go again!

2011-01-30T10:16:00.001-08:00

GOOD AFTERNOON - This is a significant event that is about to approach our city. We will be posting more on what to expect and what we need to do to prepare for this as time gets closer. look for my responses in yellow and red below...

The biggest news in the update is the significant expected snowfall late Tuesday from this mornings update. Tuesday afternoon between noon and 6 PM will likely approach BLIZZARD CONDITIONS with snowfall rates nearly 1" per hour.

10:00 AM. Update from the NWS.

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF ST. JOSEPH...KANSAS
CITY...BUTLER...CLINTON...MARYVILLE...ALBANY AND WARRENSBURG.

* TIMING...FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE TIMING INFORMATION BELOW. ***we will be pre-treating all properties.

* SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN
SOME AREAS.

* IMPACTS...THIS STORM WILL ARRIVE IN MULTIPLE WAVES. FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL LEAD TO ICY CONDITIONS ON
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS BY THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ONCE
SNOW ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED
AND TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ON TUESDAY.
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TRAVEL TO A HALT OVER MUCH OF
MISSOURI ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

* OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG
WITH HIGHLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS. FALLING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS WELL BELOW ZERO BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TIMING:

Today

6 pm- midnight 15% freezing drizzle little or no impact

Monday

midnight to 6 am 40% freezing drizzle/rain some slick spots Pre-treating monday 3:00 am

6 am- noon 50% freezing drizzle/rain .05" ice

noon- 6 pm 30% frzn dzzle/rain-south, snow north .05 additional ice Pending on what actually occurs we may treat prior to mix.

6 pm- midnite 70% mix to snow .3" (1/4" snow mostly north of I-70)

Tuesday

midnight to 6 am 70% light snow .6" (1/2" snow)

6 am to noon 100% moderate snow 2.4" (almost 1/2" per hour)

noon to 6 pm 100% heavy snow 5.2" (close to 1" per hour)

6 pm to midnite 80% snow 1.6" (1/4" per hour)

Wednesday

midnight to 6 am 80% light snow .3 (1/4" additional)

TOTAL EXPECTED ACCUMULATION 10.4"

KC Long Range Weather, www.kclongrangeweather.com

13" inches of white snow forcasted for the winter of 2011 and it's still coming!!!

2011-01-28T14:14:00.001-08:00

Well, this is still a way's out and actually I may be crazy for posting this, this early but this is what we are seeing and hearing. It would be one heck of an event if it does hold together, we will keep you updated as we get new information. The last event was pretty much dead on to Gary's forecast with kclongranger.

Next weeks storm is actually 3 different storms that will combine into a three day event ending with a possible 12" of snow late Tuesday and early Wednesday if it holds together.

The first part of the storm is now beginning to show signs of a major freezing rain event beginning as early as Sunday night and lasting most of the day Monday until the second part of the storm arrives late Monday night.

Light snow is expected to arrive Monday night about 6 PM and will likely be a mix in areas mostly south of the river until midnight.

Tuesday will be light snow early, then moderate snow with the heaviest being in the afternoon. Forecast models are showing 10" by midnight on Tuesday with and additional 2" early Wednesday.

Good News or bad news?

2011-01-21T10:45:00.001-08:00

This is the weather report that we just received. We will keep you posted as necessary. Also attached is the current radar image for why we spread salt.

Most of the scattered snow showers this morning have clipped on through the area and some are expected to wrap back around later this afternoon with less than 1" on average.

The storm due late Saturday into Sunday is looking at this moment to take a northerly track leaving KC in the general 2-4" range with 4" north of the River and 2" south. This storm is still 36 hours away and may still change directions.

I'll update again this afternoon.

KC Long Range Weather, www.kclongrangeweather.com

current radar

2011-01-21T10:05:00.001-08:00

Snow in KC last night and will be winter like all week!

2011-01-09T10:05:00.001-08:00

Wow it really snowed in KC, and it snowed a descent amount in some spots. Mostly Olathe areas got the most ( some spots almost 2") while NKC and North Overland Park only received a 1/4-1/2 inch.

Here is the projection as of 11:30 am Sunday. We will be updating the blog and sending out an email later on today / tonight with our plan.

As of now, no office complexes have been treated (unless they have 24 hour service), and we do not intend to do so till early AM hours, we will clear the walks at this point before work tomorrow and hold off on plowing and or salting. We are thinking based on the time line to start doing drive lanes around 10:00 am.

All snow personal on standby till Wednesday.

KCI-Platte Woods Olathe Lees Summit Liberty Platte City

11:30- midnight dusting dusting dusting dusting .20

midnight- 6 AM .3 .4 .1 .3 .4

6 AM to noon 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.2

noon to 6 PM 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

6 PM to midnight 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.7

midnight to 6 AM .5 .3 .8 .9 .8

TOTALS 7" 6.7" 7" 7.5" 7.4"

Dusting

2011-01-08T22:51:00.000-08:00

It is 12:50 PM in Overland Park and there is an 1/8" of snow, falling at a fast paste, may pick up a 1/2".

»

A
d
v
a
n
c
e
d

R
a
d
a
r

T
y
p
e
s

C
L
I
C
K

»

	Frame Navigation:
View / Save This Image	«	Oldest	\|	Previous	\|	Next	\|	Newest	»	342 secs

Radar Tip: Try clicking and dragging on the map above to make a zoom box.

Click Advanced Radar Types on the left to select scientific radar types.

Will it really snow?

2011-01-08T15:21:00.001-08:00

All spotters and all snow crews on standby till further notice.

Isolated flurries through the night. No accumulation.

Sunday....A continued chance of flurries through the day with nothing much happening until about after midnight into early Monday morning.

Monday will have snow becoming moderate snow through the day.

Between 4 AM and Midnight, I expect about 4 inches with the heaviest to fall in the mid day. Some areas mainly north west may get up to 8". Snow will continue through the night into Tuesday morning.

I expect the NWS will issue a Heavy Snow Warning tomorrow afternoon.

Will it really snow?

2011-01-05T10:47:00.000-08:00

Will it really snow? The outlook was a rain/snow mix starting Saturday evening going through Tuesday, but it appears that it will be cloudy Saturday night now and 30% chance of snow From Sunday through Monday. This is still a few days away, we just wanted to give you a heads up.

Thanks and enjoy the shining SUN!

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 44. West northwest wind around 9 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Northwest wind around 9 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. West northwest wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind between 10 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 32.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Sunday: Cloudy, with a high near 30.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 22.

New Years Eve

2010-12-31T07:45:00.001-08:00

There was a band of rain that entered the KC area this morning around 4:30 and 5:00 AM depending on the location. The mix stayed well North of the River but all properties west of I-35 and N were checked. While Properties N. of I -70 ( Tiffany Springs ) were serviced for light mix accumulation.

There are wet roads and parking lots so if the wind does not dry the pavement, we may have to treat properties as the front enters the areas if the rising temps don't correct the problem.

We will be in touch or if you would like to decline any service please reply but if it is questionable, we will call you at that point.

Thank you and Have a Happy New Years Eve and SAFE!

Christmas Eve Update!

2010-12-22T13:16:00.001-08:00

More to come on this update in the morning!

The biggest change in the recent forecast is the elimination of any freezing rain and sleet in the KC Metro area. We should get all snow starting about midnight Thursday night and lasting at least the first half of Christmas Eve. I've also introduced a good chance for lingering flurries through Christmas Day.

This storm has slowed down and appears to be on a southerly track towards southern Missouri and is still 36 hours away and I wouldn't rule out track changes

Snowfall amounts. Generally anywhere from a dusting to 3" with higher amounts to our south.

Paola through Harrisionville: 3"

Olathe through Lee's Summit: 2-3"

Lawrence through Downtown KC: 1-2"

Atcheson, KCI, Liberty. 1-2" {with Liberty being on the 2" side)

Areas east of the Kansas mentioned cities---dusting.

Areas west of the Missouri listed cities--- higher amounts.

The average expected snow within the I-435 loop is 1.5"

Sleet, sled's and Santa Clause...Here we go....

2010-12-21T07:15:00.001-08:00

With sleet and Ice it is impossible to wait on servicing locations. We will be servicing all locations the same and at the same time. What is most important is that it won't build up causing problems and creating a more difficult situation to remove and allowing us the ability to keep your properties in the safest condition mother nature will allow.

Although this storm is still off the coast, we have a little better idea what to expect.

There is a slight chance for early sleet or freezing drizzle Thursday morning and then quiet the rest of the day until after dark when a better chance for sleet forms-- with the bulk of the show happening around midnight, changing to all snow and lasting through Friday morning.

The precipitation Thursday evening could vary all ranges of precip from thunder south to all snow near St. Joe and sleet/mix in between before everyone changes to all snow at midnight.

Some areas, mostly south may see a more sleet than snow event. In all cases, driving conditions will be a nightmare by Friday morning.

Current thinking on snowfall totals by Friday morning.

4-5" From KCI north.

3-4" Downtown to KCI.

1-3 470 to Downtown

0-1 Harrisonville to 470.

These examples will likely be updated every 12 hours until the event.

KC Long Range Weather, www.kclongrangeweather.com

Will we get a White Christmas??

2010-12-20T14:06:00.001-08:00

Happy Holiday's and Possibly every ones wish a WHITE CHRISTMAS...now lets not hope for a blizzard so that we all make it to our family's safe and no one works on Christmas! We will be keeping you current on this situation as it gets closer.

TREATABLE EVENT - COMING.

This storm is still off the Pacific coast, but the latest models show this to be a significant storm for our area. Rain or freezing rain in some areas may begin early Thursday and mix through the evening hours changing to all snow by the midnight hour. Snowfall around that time will be on top of any freezing precip. NWS is projecting up to 5" by early Friday morning, but I believe 3" will be the average in the area more or less. Either way, the current forecast calls for horrible driving conditions from afternoon Thursday through early Friday.

It's still early, but I expect the NWS will have us in a Winter Weather Advisory by early Thursday.

Christmas and after, we fall into a deep freeze for a while with a similar event just before New Year's.

KC Long Range Weather, www.kclongrangeweather.com

Saturday Dec. 18th, latest update

2010-12-18T19:21:00.003-08:00

In short there is a chance for snow mainly north of I-70 but we need

to keep a close watch on this event. 
Temperatures are in the low 40's tomorrow.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TWO ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.
THE FIRST ROUND OCCURRING THIS EVENING WILL BE AFFECTING NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...MAINLY FROM HIGHWAY 50...NORTHWARD.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE NORTH OF
KANSAS CITY AND AS FAR EAST AS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...MAY PRODUCE
UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AND CREATE SLICK ROADWAYS. THIS SNOW WILL
TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...BUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME DRIER AIR...SHOULD UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND.

THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE SETTING UP OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE HEADS TOWARD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SNOW MAY DEVELOP...AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS AREAS FROM KANSAS CITY NORTHWARD WOULD SEE THIS SNOW
DEVELOPING FIRST...WITH IT SPREADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE
IN THE NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW SHOULD STAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.

BETWEEN THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS MAY PICK
UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST.
AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER OFF AS YOU GO FURTHER SOUTH...WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. THEN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRANT CITY TO
CHILLICOTHE TO MOBERLY.

Current Radar - We are monitoring this situation

2010-12-18T16:27:00.000-08:00

It is mainly in the atmosphere but we could get a dusting to up to 1", all spotters and all crews on call till 12:00 PM Sunday.

Current Radar - Wednesday Event

2010-12-15T16:09:00.000-08:00

We have activated service on retail, 24 hour, medical, shipping and like facilities

Wednesday Outlook

2010-12-14T14:48:00.001-08:00

Wednesday Possible treatable event -

We will be monitoring the situation closely and even though it is thought to only freeze on Vegetation in the am, it is very possible for each property to have a different moisture level creating hazardous conditions, if you notice something in your area, we urge you to contact us immediately. All spotters and salting crews are on call at this point till 10:00 PM Wednesday. We will again update you in the AM or if we see a sudden change.

Light drizzle expected to develop in our area from the south reaching the metro area around noon. The surface temps will be below freezing so any precipitation will likely freeze mostly on bridges, trees, etc., and will otherwise have little impact until late evening.

After dark, the drizzle may have accumulated in enough areas to create driving problems and at the same time, may change to snow flurries north of the river.

Conditions appear minimal for a major event at this time. It looks to be mostly slippery sidewalks and icy vegetation.