白银分享区

辛亥革命100周年金银纪念币

2011-12-31T04:50:00.000-08:00

辛亥革命100周年金银纪念币1盎司圆形银质纪念币

正面图案		背面图案

编号	2011-1102-ag-1oz			年号	2011	国别	中国
面额(元)	材质	成色(%)	质量	重量	形状	直径(mm)	发行量(枚)
10	银	99.9	精制	1 oz	圆形	40	160000
正面图案	中华人民共和国国徽，并刊国名、年号。
背面图案	“武昌起义”浮雕，并刊“辛亥革命一百周年纪念”中文字样、 “1911-2011”字样及面额。
设计	-------
雕刻	-------
铸造单位	沈阳造币有限公司。
简介	中国人民银行定于2011年9月30日发行辛亥革命100周年金银纪念币一套。该套纪念币共2枚，其中金币1枚，银币1枚，均为中华人民共和国法定货币。

辛亥革命100周年金银纪念币1/4盎司圆形金质纪念币

正面图案		背面图案

编号	2011-1101-au-1/4oz			年号	2011	国别	中国
面额(元)	材质	成色(%)	质量	重量	形状	直径(mm)	发行量(枚)
100	金	99.9	精制	1/4 oz	圆形	22	100000
正面图案	中华人民共和国国徽，并刊国名、年号。
背面图案	孙中山头像，并刊“辛亥革命一百周年纪念”中文字样、“1911-2011”字样及面额。
设计	-------
雕刻	-------
铸造单位	沈阳造币有限公司。
简介	中国人民银行定于2011年9月30日发行辛亥革命100周年金银纪念币一套。该套纪念币共2枚，其中金币1枚，银币1枚，均为中华人民共和国法定货币。

Review of the Paper Futures Implications of the HSBC Gold/Silver Lawsuit

2011-12-25T17:00:00.000-08:00

2012 Fiji LIMITED 8,888 Dragon with Real Pearl 1oz 999 Fine Silver Bullion Coin

紙金紙銀的風險, 就算你想收取實貨, 原來批貨已俾人當衍生工具賣咗出去 !依家就打緊官司, 睇貨屬誰?

With gold and silver paper futures being smashed this morning, we thought it would be a good time to remind readers of the possible paper futures dumping that The Doc predicted this past Sunday as a result of the HSBC lawsuit over gold/silver rehypothecation. Along with liquidity fears over Europe, this likely could be a large part of the current paper rout.

With less than an hour until gold and silver trading opens on the Globex, we will soon find out what, if any, HSBC's lawsuit against the MF Global trustee and Jason Fine has on gold and silver futures prices.

For those who missed it, Jason Fine, an MF Global client, demanded delivery for 5 gold contracts (500 ounces) and 3 silver contracts (15,000 ounces) from HSBC, the custodian of the metal. Fine had used the warehouse receipts of his PHYSICAL METAL on deposit at HSBC as collateral for his account at MF Global. MF Global's liquidation trustee James Giddens (i.e. Jamie Dimon) said WHOA THERE PARDNER!, NO CAN DO! MF Global rehypothecated your gold and silver collateral when it purchased CDS contracts from us, so we'll be taking the delivery of said gold and silver thanks to our SENIOR creditor status. HSBC subsequently filed suit Friday against both Jason Fine and the MFG trustee, in effect to allow a judge decide who gets the phyzz.

This weekend has seen rampant speculation that the markets will open with a collapse in GLD, and a spike in gold and silver, as all the paper holders rush to get out of paper gold and into phyzz.
Personally, The Doc disagrees.

From how I understand it, the lawsuit doesn't mean anything- yet. The real fireworks should come when the judge decides whether the phyzz belongs to the actual holder of the futures contracts, or the counter-party of the CDS contracts purchased with Fine's rehypothecated collateral by MFG.
This could play out in 3 ways:

1. Judge orders Phyzz liquidated for cash, and all parties receive a haircut and a portion of the assets. This is most likely in The Doc's opinion- and at this point, holders of futures contracts may well panic and dump futures positions for phyzz, causing a collapse in COMEX futures prices of phyzz, with a corresponding evaporation of physical inventory as the physical metal becomes unavailable.

2. Judge rules in favor of Jason Fine, and all phyzz is delivered to the rightful owner. JP Morgan instantly panics, crashes paper futures prices, and scoops up all available phyzz. Least likely outcome in my mind.

3. Judge rules in favor of MFG Trusee James Giddens (i.e. Jamie Dimon, Blythe Masters, and The Morgue). Jason Fine told to F*** off, you are an unsecured creditor as JP Morgan holds senior status to your rehypothecated collateral/ assets. For aftermath, see No. 1 only magnified 100 fold. Futures traders instantly lose all confidence in the system, and the COMEX implodes not from a delivery default, but from a loss of confidence among futures traders.

I may be wrong, but I don't see an outcome to this that results in PAPER gold and silver prices rocketing. All three possible outcomes seem to mean major sell-offs in the PAPER futures markets, while at the same time, physical inventory dries up and becomes unavailable. Again, it appears to me that this is more likely to happen when the judge makes a ruling in the case, rather than imminently on the announcement of the lawsuit. I could be wrong, as should a futures trader similarly think through the likely possible outcomes of this HSBC suit, the smart ones will get out now and not wait for a verdict. We'll see whether the speculative futures traders panic now, or wait for the handwriting on the wall before they panic and attempt to get out. My money is they'll wait for the handwriting on the wall, Belshazzar style, when it's too late to get out!

请你耐心的看完这片段

2011-12-11T17:50:00.001-08:00

If Silver Goes Down All Hell Will Break Loose In The Physical Market: Silver Investment Update

There simply isn't enough physical silver to deal with the demand of a fiat currency crisis. As the paper silver market pushes prices down, all hell will break loose in the physical market.

Silver And Gold Market Price Forecast: Buying Silver Is Like Buying Gold At $554 Today

2011-12-10T20:21:00.001-08:00

Silver and Gold Market Price Forecast
I think that buying silver today is like buying gold for $554 an ounce. Let me explain: As I am writing, silver is currently trading at about 65.2% (32.6/50) of its 1980 high. If gold was trading at 65.2% of its 1980 high, it would be trading at $554 (0.652*850).

Now, I really like gold, even at today’s price of $1 738, but why should I pay $1 738, if I can get it for $554 by buying silver and then exchanging it for gold when the gold/silver ratio is at an extreme (in favour of silver). The reason for this logic comes from the fundamental relationship between gold and silver as explained in my previous article.

For my argument to be valid, silver has to outperform gold over my investment period, and at least equal gold’s performance relative to its 1980 high. That is, for example, if gold reaches five multiples of its 1980 high ($4250), then silver should do the same ($250), in this example, giving us a gold/silver ratio of 17.

Now, if silver outperforms gold, then that means that the gold/silver ratio should decline over my investment term. In my previous article called: Why Silver for a Monetary Collapse, I analysed the gold/silver ratio from a very long perspective (200 years). Here I would like to take a slightly more short-term view (40 years).

Below, is a long +/- 40 year chart of the gold/silver ratio:

On the chart, I have identified two fractals, which I have both marked with points 1 to 3. The two patterns are visually very similar. I have indicated two option of where we could be currently (on the current pattern), compared to the 70s pattern. The ratio appears to be at a major crossroads, ready to make a big move, up or down. This could mean that a massive move in the gold and silver price is due shortly.

Based on the patterns, if it moves up, it would likely signal the end of the precious metals bull market, similar to January 1980. A move down would be an acceleration of the current bull market in gold and silver, similar to August/September 1979.

The question is therefore: Do you think the bull market in precious metals is over? Before you answer that, first consider the following:

On the above graphic, the top chart is the current gold bull market from 1999 to date, compared to the bull market of the 60s and 70s, the bottom chart. The previous bull market in gold was about 14 years long, from a peak in the Dow/gold ratio to the bottom in Dow/gold ratio. The current bull market is 12 years, from the peak in the Dow/gold ratio to date.

The previous bull market ended with a parabolic move in gold (on the above scale). The current bull market has not made a parabolic move (on the above scale); in fact, it has been rising steadily over the last 12 years.

To me, these two charts suggest that we are more likely to have a parabolic rise in the gold price, than being at the end of this bull market. Therefore, it also suggests that price action for gold and silver, and the gold/silver ratio is likely to be more like 1978/1979 than like January 1980.

So, back to my argument of buying silver, in order to get gold at $554: I certainly think that silver will outperform gold over the remaining part of this bull market in precious metals, as well as, at least equal gold’s performance relative to its 1980 high. I can certainly see how gold could be at $4250 with silver being at $250, or at higher prices, with the gold/silver ratio being at 17 or less.

For more analysis on silver and gold, you are welcome to subscribe to my free or premium service.

Warm regards and God bless,

Hubert

2012年1oz銀貓800萬枚 - from China News

2011-12-07T04:54:00.001-08:00

2012年1oz銀貓800萬枚的發行量是所有金銀幣投資收藏者始料未及的，大家被這突如其來的打擊震悶了。但其實也沒什麼可怕的。

中國熊貓幣是實際五大投資幣之一，按其它國家發行慣例則應當按金銀價出售，但我們國家由於收藏者眾多，而熊貓幣發行量又少，致使很多熊貓在發行當年都有不少升幅，過幾年後升幅隨著消耗的加大則愈演愈烈，所以在我們國家用金銀價來買熊貓幣是奢想。

而如今1OZ銀貓發行量已達800萬枚，它的發行價或市場成交價可能真的要按銀價計價了，這不是壞事，關鍵是我們不習慣。這麼大的量在市場上銷售也許很難，如果能利用銀行網點來銷售，那800萬的量就不算什麼了，要知道每年銀行賣掉的銀條有多少，可能比這個量還多很多很多，那800萬的量又算什麼？

如果銀行同時有熊貓銀幣和銀條，大家在比較後也許更多地會選擇銀貓，這是好事，更多的人可以通過熊貓銀幣來認識金銀幣了。事實上金銀投資這個市場很大很大，但很多人被不良機構忽悠，將投資銀章、銀條、銀碗、銀筷等作為理財手段，沉浸在“贏利”的空頭許諾中。這個量是巨大的，不是幾個金銀幣市場規模能媲美的。如果這些投資者中的一部分轉而投資熊貓金銀幣，重而開始認識金銀幣，那這對於金銀幣的投資來說也許是福音。

我們必須積極地看待發展中的問題或困難，800萬的量或許令金銀幣的發展面臨新的機遇，金銀幣的投資前景一定一片光明。

熊貓金銀幣一直以來就是世界上5大金銀投資幣之一，只是以前因為國家沒有那麼多的金銀，因此發行量很少，才產生了收藏價值。現在央行正在把熊貓幣真正與國際接軌，將熊貓幣“恢復”到它本來應屬的地位。很多朋友到現在好像都還不知道這點。美國的老鷹金銀幣，每年發行近千萬枚，是美國政府為大眾提供投資實物金銀的一種手段，就相當於你在買真金白銀。為什麼要印面值？因為面值是作為區分官方和民間鑄造的金銀章唯一標準。印了面值表示由美國政府擔保該金銀幣的成分足。熊貓幣也不例外，如果大家覺得800萬枚多，那你很快就會看到上千萬枚，上億枚。因為熊貓幣就是中國官方發行的金銀投資幣。不過，正因為這樣，2010年以前發行的所有熊貓幣由於發行量少，以及其介於投資幣和紀念幣的地位，將來一定會產生收藏價值，越早的不足幾萬枚的更是。所有熊貓加字幣才是真正意義的熊貓紀念幣，可惜濫發的太多了，商業味道太濃。

Chris Martenson's presentation at the Gold & Silver Meeting in Madrid

2011-11-30T01:48:00.001-08:00

Chris Martenson of answers questions regarding electricity, shale gas, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and uranium and the race for global resources.

Robert Kiyosaki : I am a Silver bug

2011-11-30T01:44:00.001-08:00

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Robert Kiyosaki : I’m a silver bug, so one year ago, I told my friends, this is when silver was $17.00, I said, “You better buy now, ‘cause you’re never gonna see it again.” So, $17.00 was the magic number to me. And so, they really missed it. Now, as far as above $50.00, I would say that’s probably a given and they don’t understand why they’re getting into this stuff. But, the reason they’re getting into it is because, like, our government’s ripping ‘em off, but they would rather have, you know, a government we trust. And, you know, what I’m sick of right now, personally, is I turn on Fox and I watch the news and all it is is these political shows talking as if these politicians, or whoever’s elected or not elected next year, is gonna make a difference. And they’re talking about taxing the rich. You know, what – that’s not gonna make any difference. And they keep talking about how these regulations impede entrepreneurs. Well, nothing impedes entrepreneurs. So, you know, really, what it is is the individual person really does have very little financial education. And so, right now, this market’s crushing ‘em and I’m afraid if they do nothing, they will be crushed. I have a lot of friends and family who are in very dire straits right now. And no matter how much I talk to them, you know, I say, “You should buy silver now. It’s your last chance”, they didn’t do anything and I think that’s the problem. - in Goldseek Radio

Interview With Silver Guru Ted Butler

2011-11-26T06:01:00.001-08:00

2012 PAMP SUISSE 1oz 999 Silver Bar

November 2011 - Weekly Review/Financial Terrorism

Weekly Review

The price of gold and, especially silver, sold off sharply this week, with most of the damage coming on Thursday. For the week, gold was off $64 (3.6%), while silver was off $2.30 (6.6%). The numbers would have been worse for silver were it not for some snapback on Friday. As a result of silver’s steep underperformance this week, the gold/silver ratio widened out to almost 53.5 to 1, near the top end of where this ratio has traded year to date. This means silver is cheaper relative to gold and on a value basis this is an opportune time for gold-heavy investors to switch gold holdings into silver.

As always, my suggestion to switch from gold to silver and to buy silver with fresh cash is intended on a metal for metal switch or on a money on the barrel basis. In other words, no borrowing and no leverage. Yes, I understand the silver price action looks punk. I also understand that silver investor sentiment is weak, with countless stories suggesting a silver price smash dead ahead. But I also understand that in any investment the best time to buy is when things look rotten. The alternative is to wait until things look and feel better. Of course, that usually means buying at much higher prices, when confidence is restored and everyone is feeling fine.

As long as the facts point to an undervaluation in silver, both on an absolute basis and relative to gold, those facts will override sentiment on a long term basis. Sentiment can change a lot easier than facts can change. It doesn’t seem that way in the midst of brutal price takedowns, but history has shown that the best time to buy silver is after it has been smashed in price. This applies to many investments, but none more so than silver, given its manipulated price state. As always, it’s vital to view the facts objectively.

That gold has been performing better than silver is, paradoxically, one of the best arguments for silver. At current prices, the dollar value of the world’s three billion ounces of gold bullion is more than $5 trillion, which towers over the value of the one billion oz of silver bullion ($32 billion) by almost 160 times. Yet this fact is largely unknown and vastly unappreciated. It takes roughly $7 billion monthly in new investment to absorb newly produced gold (above jewelry and other fabrication) and less than $400 million monthly to absorb all the net new silver available for investment. Even though silver investment demand has been lackluster recently, due to current rotten investor sentiment, that sentiment can turn on a dime. As a silver bull, a strong gold price is one of the strongest arguments for sharply higher silver prices. Given overall world financial conditions, it is very easy to imagine continued strong gold prices.

The current weak silver investor sentiment, brought about by the weak price action, is reflected in recent weak retail demand statistics. Data from the US Mint indicate that November may be the weakest month for sales of Silver Eagles in recent years, although 2011 is already in the record books as the best year ever for Silver Eagle sales. Just to keep things in perspective, as weak as very recent Silver Eagle sales have been, they still tower over sales of Gold Eagles. This highlights that retail demand in general is not a short term driver of price, otherwise gold prices wouldn’t be as strong as they are presently. The low price of silver, low premiums and current easy availability of Silver Eagles suggests to me that this is an opportune time to pick up Silver Eagles. Maybe I’ll ask my good friend and silver mentor, Izzy Friedman, to write another piece on why Silver Eagles are maybe the best form of silver to hold. The last time he did so, US Mint production capacity was maxed out for years.

Movements, or turnover, in COMEX silver warehouse stocks have remained frantic on balance. This turnover is still a prime indicator to me for wholesale tightness. As a result of Thursday’s massive decline in price, we did see a reduction of 2.2 million ounces in the big silver ETF, SLV. Given the sharp price drop, this looked like plain vanilla investor liquidation and quite normal to me. I’m also hopeful that the silver price sell-off may result in a reduction in the outrageously large and manipulative short position in SLV, although the very next short report (due in a week) may not reflect that, as the cut-off for that report was Nov 15, just before the latest price swoon.

Over the past year or so, SLV as well as all other silver ETFs have roughly unchanged inventory levels, which given the extreme price volatility over that time, looks constructive to me. My take is that the price volatility has caused a pause in new buying by silver investors, but not to the point of them becoming big net sellers. It looks to me that the wild price fluctuations have turned silver investors into strong holders and that when price action invariably improves, aggressive new buying will emerge. I am particularly encouraged that holdings in the big gold ETF, GLD, have risen recently despite volatile gold price action and reports of selling by the biggest GLD investor, John Paulson. Retail investors may not be plowing into gold, but larger investors seem to be doing so. Again, strong physical demand for gold will, sooner or later, likely translate into strong silver physical demand. One of these days, some big gold investors are going to discover silver and try to invest in silver in a big way. When they do, the fact that there is such a small amount of silver available for investment will cause a price mess to the upside, just like trying to put ten pounds of flour into a two pound bag.

This week’s Commitment of Traders Report (COT) was somewhat uneventful in that the big price and volume drama came well after the Tuesday cut-off. In fact, the continued MF Global disaster and mess has undoubtedly impacted the COT reports for the past two weeks, as the CFTC readily admits on the COT web page. For instance, some of you may have noticed the unusually large changes in the non-reporting category for gold and silver over the past two weeks. For that reason, it may be wise to read both weeks as one. In doing so, my original guess two weeks ago that the gold total commercial short position may have increased by 20,000 to 30,000 contracts becomes more accurate, as the two week increase comes in at 22,000 contracts or so and not the 14,500 increase of the single prior week.

Regardless, this week the silver total commercial net short position increased by a further 1600 contracts, to 26,300 contracts. This is still a very low and spectacularly bullish historical COT reading for silver. You might ask how can you have a one day 7% decline in price when I proclaim the COT structure to be spectacularly bullish? My answer is that you must always remember that the silver market is manipulated and crooked, perhaps the most manipulated and crooked market in the world, including diamonds and cocaine. The commercial crooks can do anything they want on a short term basis.

Like last week’s COT in silver, the raptors (the smaller commercials away from the 8 largest traders) accounted for all the selling, reducing their net long position to 13,000 contracts. Importantly, the big 4 category (read JPMorgan) hasn’t changed much since the COT report of Oct 25, when there was an increase of 3000 contracts into that week. JPMorgan is still sitting with 16,000 contracts net short in my estimation, among the lowest COMEX short reading since they acquired Bear Stearns’ big concentrated short position in 2008. My hunch is that while JPMorgan may have been able to reduce their short position on Thursday’s manipulated takedown, it is more likely that the raptors were the initiators and beneficiaries of the price smash that day. While JPMorgan is the big enabler of the continued silver manipulation, the collusive raptors are usually responsible for the big price smashes.

In gold, there was an increase in the total commercial net short position of 7200 contracts for the week, to 204,163 contracts. As in silver, it was largely due to raptor selling. The difference was that the gold raptors did get net short last week and added to their net short position this week, which now totals near 10,000 contracts. Also as was the case in silver, the down turn after the cut-off was precipitated by the raptors who act collusively in each market, even as the regulators turn a blind eye to that collusion. No doubt there has been notable improvement in the COT structure in both silver and gold on the deliberate takedown. There may be more takedown possible in gold from a paper market perspective given that we are dancing on the 50 day moving average, although recent strong gold physical demand may argue against that. In silver, we are deep into the “getting blood from a stone” levels of potential liquidation and it is hard to imagine massive new liquidation given how depleted the speculative long side has become.

I’m planning an article (probably on Wednesday) talking about some new factors favoring silver on a longer term basis that’s away from manipulation and the like, assuming no last minute developments. It’s been some time since I’ve been able to discuss silver in non-manipulative terms.

Gold & Silver Game Changer - Central Bank Buying - Mike Maloney

2011-11-26T05:56:00.001-08:00

2012 PAMP SUISSE 1oz 999 Silver Bar

宋鸿兵：依旧看好未来金银价投资不用杠杆交易

2011-11-22T23:26:00.001-08:00

据《新闻晨报》报道，“到2012年12月份回头看金价和银价，要比现在高很多。”《货币战争》作者宋鸿兵近日在本届上海理财博览会上表示，依旧坚定看好黄金、白银的走势。

　　宋鸿兵表示，从基本的经济形势来分析，现在欧元和美元的问题继续发展下去，将会在2012年产生比今年还要错乱的金融形势，在此情况之下，明年不管是美国的QE3（量化宽松3），还是欧元版的量化宽松都会陆续推行。如果明年全世界的经济形势出现以量化宽松为主的治理方式，那么明年这个时候再探讨投资理财的时候，投资者还会看到贵金属大幅上涨的基本趋势。

　　宋鸿兵建议，投资贵金属的时候，应保持一个稳定的心态，以8年、10年的心态看这个问题，未来贵金属发展趋势都是大牛市，只不过是价格的高和低，剧烈回调一定是增持的时候，另外宋鸿兵提醒投资者不要用杠杆交易，不要用快进快出的心态去投资，一定要买实物贵金属。

John Embry - Tremendous Manipulation of Both Gold & Silver

2011-11-19T05:56:00.001-08:00

With gold trading at $1,725 and silver above $32, today King World News interviewed John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of the $10 billion strong Sprott Asset Management to get his take on where he sees gold, silver, the US dollar and the mining shares headed. When asked about the Australian Conference, where he was a keynote speaker, and the action in gold and silver, Embry responded, “I just got back from Australia last night and I thought the conference was absolutely outstanding. It was a credit to everyone involved in organizing the event, it was first class. As far as the action in gold, I don’t want to be arrogant, but I actually know that we have a big option expiry coming up on Tuesday and this is just business as usual.”

John Embry continues:

“I mean these guys are brutal and the CFTC doesn’t regulate a damn thing. Like I said, it’s just business as usual. What’s particularly strange this time is even the muppets on CNBC and all of these people who have to make comments on the action are kind of baffled as to why the prices are going down. Usually they have some weak reason and they are even out of those.

I think it’s spectacularly bullish that sentiment is so incredibly weak in the metals. I can’t believe that people are basically being influenced to this degree by price action and they are just ignoring the fundamentals. That is exactly what the people who are creating the price action want.

I have to respect the enemy because they are good at what they do, even though it’s completely illegal in my opinion. But they do it well and it works in the sense that the average person, who isn’t prepared to study this closely, is influenced by the price action.

They get their eye off the ball and miss what is really going on, which is the fundamentals are sensational and the gold and silver prices are going to multiples of the current prices in the not too distant future. And if you don’t own this stuff, you’re going to get killed....

When asked about Paul Brodsky’s view that gold is trading at an 80% discount to its real value and so reactions are irrelevant, Embry remarked, “I couldn’t agree more. I won’t make a price prediction because what you are predicting is how far currencies are going to fall in value. They could fall to nothing and so the price of gold could be infinite.

The real issue here is to be long because the trend is up. It’s been up for eleven years and it’s going to be up for a lot longer and the appreciation is going to accelerate. It’s really interesting if you watch what’s been going on for the last few years because they have controlled the rise. They can’t stop the rise, but they can control the speed of it.

The last couple of years gold has been up around 26% and guess what? They are holding it here right now and if the year ended tomorrow we would be up about the same percentage. I mean nothing that isn’t manipulated works like that.”

When asked about the mining shares, Embry replied, “Basically the shares reflect the action in the bullion. And as long as they are making the bullion act counter-intuitively, with a push from them, they have affected the public’s perception of the shares.

So consequently when the gold and silver prices get knocked down violently, the shares check back again. But this is all going to pass and when you compress a spring, when it goes the other way, it’s going to go violently the other way and that’s exactly what’s going to happen with the shares. I mean there is going to be five and ten baggers all over the place.”

Are We Running Out of Silver?

2011-11-18T23:46:00.001-08:00

2012 Australia 10 oz Kookaburra 999 Silver Coin

Jeff Clark - Senior Precious Metals Analyst

Silver has been on fire over the last three years — substantially outperforming its spotlight-grabbing cousin, gold.

Because we believe this bull run is far from over, we advise investors to always maintain exposure to the precious metals markets. Even if you haven’t yet participated in the run-up of both gold and silver, I’m glad you’re ready to take a look at the investment potential of silver.

The question every investor faces in a bull market is: Do I buy now, anticipating prices will continue higher — and chance getting clobbered if a correction arrives? Or do I wait for a pullback and possibly miss out on big gains? There’s risk either way.

Our goal in this report is to suggest various ways you can invest in silver, while underscoring the importance of patience and discipline. Investors must remain patient to avoid chasing silver, overpaying, and draining their cash. Instead, we recommend that you use temporary price declines to steadily accumulate the best silver stocks and your preferred form of bullion.

Looking back after this bull market has finally run its course, we think gold and silver will have amply rewarded those who bought smart, had meaningful exposure, and stayed the course.

Silver: The Lay of the Land

There is ample data on the silver market to consider, but there are two specific issues regarding supply and demand that are critical to understand.

The first is industrial use. Demand from a number of industries that use silver has been flat or falling. Household demand for silver like cutlery, flatware, and candlesticks hasn’t risen in ten years. Jewelry fabrication is up but a blip. With the shift to digital photography and image storing, use in photographic film processing continues to fall. And yet, total demand from industrial users keeps climbing.

So what’s driving industrial demand?

Uses for Silver Are Growing

Since 1999, consumption in electronics has increased 120%. Silver use in solar panels began in 2000, and usage is up 640% since. Silver was first used in biocides (antibacterial agents) in 2002 and, while a small percentage of total silver use, it has grown six-fold.

The point is that not only are the number of uses for silver growing, the demand within each of those applications is rising as well. This is important to keep in mind because, traditionally, the industrial component of silver tends to keep the price soft in a poor economy – and Doug Casey is convinced we’re on the cusp of the Greater Depression.

However, these increasing sources of demand are now more likely to keep a floor under the price in the future. In fact, the Silver Institute forecasts that total industrial use of silver will rise by 36% over the next five years, to 666 million troy ounces/year. That’s a lot of silver, meaning this portion of demand, which is roughly 60% of all fabrication, isn’t letting up anytime soon.

The second issue is mine supply. Silver mine production has been increasing over the past decade, largely due to rising prices, allowing companies to ramp up production and bring more metal to the market. In fact, global mine production is up 33% since 1999. Meanwhile, total demand, as you’ll see in the chart below, is also rising.

Mine Production Can’t Keep Up with Demand

So what’s the concern?

In spite of miners digging up more and more silver, production alone can’t meet global demand, and the gap has to be filled by scrap silver coming to market.

And there’s a catch with scrap. While scrap metal comprises about 20% of silver’s total supply, many of these new applications are difficult to reclaim. Some applications contain such small amounts that they’re uneconomic to recapture, such as many biocidal and nanotechnology applications. With others it’ll be a long wait. Solar panels, for example, have a 20- to 30-year life. Still others are waiting on more effective recovery programs; more than half of all silver in cell phones, TVs, computers and other electronics, for instance, still ends up in landfills.

In other words, a growing portion of the silver that’s consumed won’t be returning to the market anytime soon.

白银泡沫了吗..?

2011-11-16T21:34:00.001-08:00

Royal Canadian Mint's official position on "milk spots" on silver Maple Leaf coins

The following is an email letter from a RCM distributor concerning the problem. To summarize, the RCM's position on "milk spots" on their silver coins is : "Don't like it? Buy something else."

Hello,

Here is the short explanation. We just had a meeting with the Mint about this 10 days ago.

The white stains (or "milk spots") result from the planchet (flan) cleaning and preparation process. Some Silver Maple Leaf coins have them (SMLs), some do not.

This is the Mint's official position: The coins are bullion coins. They are not collector coins. They are sold as one ounce of silver. The Mint knows that there is a problem. The problem has existed since 1988, when the SML coin was first introduced. The Mint says that there is nothing that they can do about the problem.

Our experience is that some SMLs have them and some do not. We do not know what we are going to get when we open the boxes of 500 ounces of silver that come from the Mint. We have to take what we get; we can not return them. We do not have the time to sort them, etc.

We ship out what we get. Per the terms of our invoices, we do charge a restocking fee for returned bullion items.

I am sorry about the problem, but we have no control over it.

I hope that this helps,

John
-----------------------
Professur :
Maybe I'm strange, but I welcome seeing them. Sort of an unofficial authentication mark. After all, if you're going to fake Maples, you're going to want them as shiny and attractive as possible, no?

----------------------
LWK :
Another thing also, philharmonics get those spots too.

Silver Investment Update by The Silver Institute

2011-11-14T18:00:00.001-08:00

The Silver Institute has released a detailed update on the silver investment market including mining stocks and a supply/demand update. Physical Investment update starts on Page 17.

The North American silver retail investment market is dominated by the United States, which has recently benefited from robust demand for (in particular) its 1oz Eagle bullion coin, 100oz bars and1oz rounds. However, in recent years there has also been a substantial gap between the level of Eagle coin production and the total consumed locally. This has been due to the substantial flow of coins into Europe, especially into the German speaking countries of Switzerland, Austria and, especially, Germany itself. In recent years there have been quite distinct trends in the United States in terms of the consumption of bars and coins, each of which are discussed below. Looking first at the coin market, the production of Eagles has surged in recent years, after remaining broadly stable during the 1999-2007 period, at an average of 9.4 Moz(292 t) per annum. However, in 2008 total off take leapt to a record high of 19.7 Moz (613 t), before rising to 34.7 Moz (1,079 t) in 2010. This year, a fresh peak will be set, in excess of 41 Moz (1,275 t),which will therefore achieve a similar gain to the 20% improvement posted in 2010. The US Mint’s impressive outturn has presented the Mint with a series of challenges, principally in terms of sourcing sufficient quantities of blanks (not only to produce bullion coins, but also to satisfy the range of commemorative coins released each year).

藏银、泰银、素银、925银、假银的区别

2011-11-13T18:05:00.001-08:00

藏银：一般不含银的成分，是白铜（铜镍合金）的雅称，传统上的藏银为30%银加上70%的铜，但即便是这样传统工艺的“藏银”，现在市场上也已见不到了，大多以完全白铜替代。

泰银：泰国特产，标准也是925的银含量。外表缺乏光亮度，追求一种“古”“旧”的“古银”效果。比起925银外镀白金的银饰，由于大众基础不够广泛，相对925银来讲，价格要较底一些。

素银：925银外镀外镀白铑（行业上称白金），能够最大可能的延缓银在氧化或硫化情况下变黄变黑的特性。行业上把没有外镀白金的925银称为“素银”，素银在空气中比较容易氧化。现在市面上出售的925银有很大比例的产品为了降底成本，都是素银。

925银：是指含银92.5%的白银，在国际标准上被公认为纯银标准。100%的银较软，制作时不能成型，不便做成银饰，而且比较容易“氧化”，俗称“变色”

各种以假乱真的假银：用其他金属制造只外镀一层银用以欺骗顾客的。而在珠宝部门鉴定时，因为检验的只是表层的一部分，反而因为外镀了一层薄薄的999银或 925银而极容易被鉴定为999足银的或925银的银饰。在识别真假银饰的时候，最合理的方法把银饰从中间切割一个断面，检测中间最里层的部分。

I Would Prefer Silver To Gold Just On Relative Value

2011-11-11T06:44:00.001-08:00

We're certainly going to have more crises coming out of Europe and America; the world is in trouble. The world has been spending staggering amounts of money that it doesn't have for a few decades now, and it's all coming home to roost.

I would prefer silver because it is still depressed on a historic basis. Silver is thirty percent below its all-time high. Gold is ten percent below its all time high. I would prefer one just on relative value, silver is probably better. I am not buying either today, but I am certainly not selling. If they go down, I will buy more.

Why Silver will Always Beat Gold

2011-11-08T21:46:00.000-08:00

Special Report

The Gold-Silver Ratio

If you average out the price ratio between gold and silver (how many ounces of silver an ounce of gold will buy)throughout history, you land on a single magical proportion: 16 to 1. This chart is slightly outdated, but gets the point across nicely. And And even experts who do not subscribe to fixed pricing relationships generally agree that a price ratio of 20 to 1should be considered normal.

What is not normal is the current ratio of — wait for it — 33 to 1!
If demand keeps rising, the ratio could eventually drop We've been screaming about silver for a while (since $6 levels). Just last year, when silver was at $18, we noted that we could see a major squeeze . Today, with silver trading above $40, we're happy with the call, and so are our readers.

To investors, this should mean two things:
1.) That silver is undervalued historically; and
3.) When combined with mad Federal Reserve printing, prices can go much higher, as we highlight in Silver Going to $100 ?
Any way you look at it, silver’s price cannot be predicted to drop in any of these scenarios. And since these same experts are continuing to predict gold’s rise towards $2,000, a realistic target price for silver could be between $100-$175/ ounce range .

Silver’s Two Faces

Silver isn’t just a precious metal and (unofficial) currency; it is also one of our main industrial metals. One of the most conductive substances known to man, it’s used in everything from photography, to compact discs, to semi-conductors, to medical equipment. Basically, if something is high-tech, it contains silver.
Here's a breakdown of silver usage by sector:

The metal’s so heavily used, in fact, that for the last several decades, the world’s total silver supply has barely been able to keep up with demand — even though the 20 th century saw historic production increases.

Demand ramped up in the last quarter of the 20 th century to the point where, for almost two decades (between 1998 and 2007), silver was in a fully-fledged global deficit. It wasn’t until the worst economic disaster in three generations that supply finally dropped to below production levels.

However, with photography alone consuming 128 million ounces of silver annually as of 2007 (that’s more than 3 times the US’s total Silver reserve), and other industrial processes accounting for another 312 million ounces, the world’s total available silver (both produced and hypothetical) is steadily — and irretrievably — decreasing.

So while gold is constantly being transferred based on price fluctuations and demand alone... silver, as an element, is actually vanishing.

The Broadest Options

With China and India buying up silver at unheard-of rates (Chinese silver demand tripled between 2004 and 2007), the industry has had no choice but to create new ways to own the metal. There’s never been so much variety in the way you can own silver as there is today. For those looking for that wealth-saving hedge, there are a number of silver bullion producers that are minting high-quality, high-purity coins for minimal premiums. A perfect example of this is the 1 ounce Mexican Libertad.

However, for those interested in riding silver’s imminent rise will look for something less tangible, like silver ETFs,or, the most aggressive option: silver mining stocks.And it’s that last option that I wanted to talk to you the most about.Because with so many people piling into gold exploration companies for all of the reasons mentioned above, the case for silver is just that much stronger.
With the magic ratio currently at such a disparity — 40 to 1 vs. 16 to 1 — those moving into silver exploration today stand to make about three times what their counterparts can expect to cash in investing similarly in gold.
Sounds nice, I know... And the fact is that investing in silver mining right now may not just be the most profitable angle to take with this most consumed of precious metals — but also the easiest.

More Reasons To Like Silver (originally published when silver was around $25, but fundamentals remain the same) Don’t get me wrong; gold will do very well for investors this year. But on a dollar-for-dollar basis, silver is going to blow the doors off gold’s performance in 2011.

Silver could easily eclipse the metal's 1980 nominal high of $50 an ounce this year. And when you learn just how little silver is available on the market right now, I think you'll agree...

The ten largest precious metal traders on COMEX currently hold net short silver positions that represent more than 330 million ounces — nearly half of total global silver production. Compare that to gold, in which the net short position in of the same ten traders represents 25 million ounces (or a mere 1%) of the 2 billion ounces of world gold inventory.That means the net short position in silver is 27 times greater than that of gold . This is setting up what I believe could be an explosive situation for wise investors.

Silver Prices

The world's largest holders of silver bullion account for roughly half (500 million ounces) of the available 1 billion ounces of worldwide silver.
This is spread over the seven largest investment funds, which include iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), the Central Fund of Canada (AMEX: CEF), and others.
This means only 500 million ounces remain for the rest of the world to invest in.
And remember that, at some point, 330 million ounces of this will eventually need to be purchased by the net physical short positions of the ten largest short players who will have to eventually cover. That means there would only be 170 million ounces of silver available to investors worldwide who are suddenly
buying silver in ever-increasing amounts. And unlike gold, there is little in the way of available above ground silver inventory.

The COMEX reports roughly 120 million ounces of silver in inventory. But most of this is already accounted for by those who hold a warehouse receipt. All this becomes a real problem when you consider that ownership of physical silver is practically becoming a religion in China. In the past 16 months, China has gone from a net exporter of ~100 million ounces of silver to a net importer of
~150 million ounces of silver. This essentially means that ~250 million of silver is no longer available to the market on an annual basis. The Chinese government is teaching their citizens the ownership of silver is an antidote to a devaluing U.S.dollar. And they're right. This has massive implications for the silver market when you consider the 1.3 billion people who live there are rapidly becoming more interested in buying physical bullion... and will continue to do for quite some time in increasing amounts.

The price of silver is now within striking distance of re-testing record highs as the metal continues to react to rising global demand and rapidly diminishing supplies. As I mentioned, I expect to see the price of silver top $50 this year. In respect to this, I continue to urge speculators to buy physical silver while it's still easily available to the retail market. Investments in physical silver — as well as quality silver stocks — will perform very well in the coming months and year.

The Country GREATEST Song - The Bernanke Blues

2011-11-06T19:49:00.000-08:00

The Bernanke Blues
Lyrics, music, vocals & production by Walter Callahan

I can't afford to put no more gas in my tank!
And I thank the Bernanke!!!

I'm missing my sweet 16 oz. caffeine
Roast the Bernanke!

You're stealing my savings, Ben, while you're giving them to those who spend!

This inflation is so damn cruel that Juan Valdez can't afford to feed his mule.
You're a fool, Bernanke!

Well our mortgage is under water now, baby...
Oh, and I blame the Bernanke...

Low interest rates created a real estate bubble that burst! And it's getting worse...
Thank the Bernanke!

All the extra liquidity came from excess stupidity...

The Fed creates them Booms and busts and now the dollar is turning to dust.
Don't trust the Bernanke...

Well there's bond bubble trouble brewing now baby...
Thank the Bernanke...

So I got to roll the dice on the DOW oh how when it comes crashing down? Blame the Bernanke...

I'll die a pauper when laid to rest because inflation forced me to invest!

Ben's killing the dollar you see, Lord have mercy QE 1, 2, 3 !!!???

If you want to die rich and old, son, go and buy that SILVER and GOLD to beat the Bernanke!!!

Silver price rising on increased investment demand

2011-11-04T19:36:00.000-07:00

According to CPM Group’s 2011 Silver Yearbook, investment demand was the main driver behind silver price increases in the past year. Total demand from investors in capital markets reached 142 million ounces, the third-highest level since the start of data recordings. Meanwhile, industry demand has also increased significantly, contributing to rising output from silver producers. Nevertheless, there was a large gap between new supply from mines and demand in 2010, which amounted to a total of 319 million ounces worldwide.

Although silver producers have increased their output by 33% since 1999, the rising supply has not helped to meet the growing demand in silver markets. While 667 million ounces of silver were produced in the past year, global demand reached 986 million ounces – a stunning gap of 319 million ounces. Record-high demand from the investment community has proven the main driver for the continuing silver price rally in 2010, with the white metal soaring to a peak of $50 per ounce in the beginning of May this year. Investors are buying silver in order to hedge against continuing currency depreciation. Furthermore, investors' capital flight to the silver sector – comparable to the situation in the gold sector – seems to also to be driven by increasing fears of inflation.

While silver demand from the photography sector has steadily declined in recent years, this downturn in demand was more than offset by other industry sectors. Since 1999, silver consumption among end users in the electronics industry increased by 120%. This development is based on the ongoing miniaturisation of electronic components, to which silver significantly contributed due to its high versatility. Since the year 2000, in which the solar industry started its globally triumphal march, the use of silver has increased by 640% due to the production of solar panels as well as solar cells. Silver has also developed to one of the most respected antibacterial agent in the medical sector as it became an important part of research and new medical applications. While this sector represented nothing more than a small niche back in 2002, the sector's demand increased six-fold by 2010.

The prestigious Silver Institute recently announced that industrial silver demand will increase globally by approximately 36% to 666 million ounces in the next five years. The price should find a good support in the wake of this development as industrial end users are expected to likely take the chance of buying price dips on futures and options markets in correction phases. This way, they can stock up on inventories at lower price levels. In addition, silver investments only amounted to a negligible share of 0.007% of worldwide assets held by investors at the end of 2010 – despite its stunning price performance in the course of the last year.

Comparing these data with the year 1980, in which the silver price marked its record high of slightly more than $50 per ounce, the white metal is still providing investors with an enormous upward potential. Silver holdings accounted for 0.34% of worldwide assets held by investors in the record year 1980. This is theoretically providing silver with a further upward potential of 48 times from its current price level in order to reach the same figures recorded in 1980. Investors have to consider as well that today's global money supply is significantly higher than it was 30 years ago. Part of this liquidity will find its way into silver markets and prove to be the main driver for the future price development of silver.

世界白银供应和需求

2011-11-02T22:26:00.000-07:00

PAMP SUISSE 2012 Dragon 1oz 999 Silver Bar

2010年全球白银生产国

排名	地名	产量（百万盎司）
1	墨西哥	128.6
2	秘鲁	116.1
3	中国	99.2
4	澳大利亚	59.9
5	智利	41.0
6	玻利维亚	41.0
7	美国	38.6

世界白银供应和需求

百万盎司	2009	2010
供应：
隐含净撤资	-22.3	116.1
净生产者对冲	-120.7	-178.0
政府净销售	-22.3	116.1
需求：
工业应用	403.8	487.4
珠宝	58.2	50.3
钱币和奖牌	79	101.3

Every Silver Pullback Is A Gift - Mike Maloney

2011-11-01T20:45:00.000-07:00

Latest Product From PAMP SUISSE

1oz 2012 PAMP DRAGON 999 Silver Bar

Listen to Mike Maloney's thoughts on the current price action in silver.

Learn why he sees this as short term noise, and that we are ultimately headed for far higher prices for precious metals.

Worried About Silver? Listen to Eric Sprott’s Stump Speech

2011-11-01T00:07:00.000-07:00

1oz 999 PAMP 2012 DRAGON Silver

by John Rubino on 2011

Hedge fund manager Eric Sprott’s speech at this week’s Silver Summit turned a room full of nervous precious metals owners into pumped-up silver buyers. Some of the highlights are posted below, and here’s a link to a recent Financial Sense interview where he makes many of the same points.
    The US Mint sells about the same dollar amount of gold and silver coins, which means it sells 50 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold. It’s more or less the same story at GoldMoney and Sprott Money.
    Ten times more silver than gold is produced each year, and the ratio in the earth’s crust is 15:1, so how can the price be 50:1? Expect a return to the historical norm of 15:1, which implies that silver will outperform gold.
    The demand/supply picture has seen a 380 million ounce per year positive swing — in a 900 million ounce market. Where is the silver coming from?
    The paper silver markets trade a billion ounces a day and the world only produces 900 million in a year. The amount available for settlement of these futures contracts is something like 1.5 million ounces, ludicrously little compared to the amount of paper.
    “On the physical side I’m seeing only buyers.”
    “There are a lot more people who can afford a one-ounce silver coin than an ounce of gold.”
    Gold will be a reserve currency and silver will also play a role.
    “We tried to buy 15 million ounces of silver and had to wait three months — and some of the silver we got was manufactured after we ordered. So there’s not a lot of silver sitting on shelves waiting for people to buy it.”
    “Somewhere along the line some manufacturer will say ‘I can’t get the silver I want’ and the jig’s up.”
    People will prefer gold and silver to having money in a bank where there’s tremendous counterparty risk. Three months ago Dexia was considered to be the best capitalized European bank and now they’ve been nationalized.
    “You go to some of the biggest names who own gold and ask them about silver and a lot of them haven’t even looked at it.”
    Central banks are selling gold surreptitiously.
    “It’s shocking how undervalued the junior miners are…Gold and siver stocks are growth stocks. They all have a plan to increase production dramatically. Small miners can start a new mine and double in size…The relative value of gold stocks will become apparent with time…The breakout, when it comes, will be very sudden.”

Full disclosure: The staff at DollarCollapse is massively long precious metals, especially silver.

全球白银供应和需求的前景(3)

2011-10-29T07:43:00.000-07:00

来源于：贵金属论坛发布时间：2011

创伤护理和用药

这是另一个潜在巨大的市场。肥胖症的问题经常占据媒体的标题版面，睡着西方国家的居民平均寿命的增长，人们也变得越来越胖而且更多的习惯久坐不动。肥胖已经明显变成全北美的首要健康问题，同时这个问题在欧洲也越来越严重。对于持久久坐不动的生活习惯的肥胖人群，容易患有慢性皮肤病，而且需要长期治疗过程。银是一种有修复作用的杀菌剂可以非常有效的，可以作为临时护理产品，也可用在治疗大片皮肤区域的绷带里。有报告证实含银的绷带对皮肤损伤的自然修复效果更快更清洁。当然，在这方面的应用不只在久坐和肥胖人群里得到迅速推广，当你到你家当地的药店去的话，你会发现一系列的含银的皮肤护理产品，并不比原来的产品贵多少。

纤维和纺织品

除了创伤修复，银依靠其价值也出现在所有其他医疗领域的设备中，很令人惊讶。它被用在导液管、起搏器、心脏瓣膜、缝合用线、试管、整形的植入物、甚至还有含银的病服和床单被罩。这正在逐渐成为这种金属的一个很大的消费领域，我们认为在2014年以前会成为一个主流消费领域。

当我们讨论含银床上用品时，你应该会自然而然的想到银在纺织业的应用。最初，注入银的纺织品与脚相关，因为银可以抑制导致异味香港脚的真菌的生长。很抱歉谈论这种话题，但要知道这是人生需要面对的现实。很快银的应用推广到休闲装，并且最近对这些产品的需求量很大。现在，你可以买到不会产生异味的鞋、袜、靴子、手套睡袋、背包和任何你能想到的服装产品。最近的纺织行业已经可以生产鞥年产出热量的高级纤维，因此打开了一个新的潜力巨大的商用和民用的防护服市场，尤其在气候寒冷地区。

再来看我们对银需求的预测图，绿色部分是纺织领域，预测比较保守。我们还不清楚这方面潜力到底有多大，但是银在这方面的应用是实实在在的，而且影响也将逐渐显现。
请看一下这些数据，到2020年时，这些领域中银的总体用量已经达到3.5亿盎司了。

食品卫生

下一个领域是食品卫生，它已经成为一个很重要的银消费领域了。在这里银仍然担当了很有效的生物杀灭剂的作用，它可以缓慢释放银离子到食物表面。含银的包装有控制细菌生长的作用，不仅被用在厨房表面处理，还有自动售货机、食品生产线的包装设备、还有食品容器的内部包装。在纸箱、塑料和纸质食品包装袋甚至是奶盒内壁，都有银的应用。同意，这些单一产品里的银用量都非常少-分布在厚度以微米计的包装表面，但这个总面积却是非常巨大。如果把这些面积都摊开来看，就会发现每年这方面对银的需求那是相当的好。

最后，作为食品卫生领域的一部分，我需要提及银在水的净化中应用。在某种意义上，这不是新发展的领域，它已经在相当长的时间里被用来净化饮用水和游泳池用水了，尤其在美国。这个市场很大，在美国每年有数以百万计的轻便净水设备销售量。这些设备被用来除去饮用水里的细菌、氯、铝和颗粒物。在特定的时间和地点得到足量高质的饮用水可能会成为全世界下一个大问题，银能够完美地解决这个问题。

以上就是我们对这些终端消费领域的银需求量的预测，我们认为银市场和银价将会表现强势，这个观点的依据是以上这些消费领域的需求增长将会弥补照相产业的需求萎缩。与照相产业不同的是，这些行业不会产生大量的再生银，你会发现想从这些领域回收银是不切实际的。医疗垃圾需要焚烧处理，不可回收；也可能从木材表面刮下反腐剂来回收银；同样在纺织行业也是这种情况。所以我们说新发展的使用银的产业大多是一次性的使用银，这意味着这种金属使用过之后不会再回到市场中。

未来预测

结合之前所说的情况和ETF基金的白银总量，可以看出现在市场强势特征已经显现，这也是银价上调的原因，并且这种价格上涨是可持续的。

银价近1-2年走势与其他的商品相似，在受到金融危机的影响期间表现低迷，但是银价随后逐渐恢复。我们认为白银市场正在经历结构调整。是的，银的矿业生产仍然对于价格缺乏弹性，而且毫无疑问现在银的回收量仍然很大，但是我们看到的是在更广阔的领域的更多的终端消费者的进入，他们会直接消耗大量的银而不会回收。因此，我们认为未来金和银的比价会缩减。

在未来相当长的时期内，银价会维持在更高的价位上。

全球白银供应和需求的前景(2)

2011-10-25T06:45:00.000-07:00

来源于：贵金属论坛发布时间：2011

将要出现的需求

那么让我们先快速浏览一下我将要向你们展示的一副图景来显示我们认为的将要出现的需求来自哪里。

电子设备

银被用在电子鉴别标签上。这些是从条形码发展来的小发明。除了控制货物库存和这些库存的动向之外，他们现在还被用来追踪人民的动向。中国投入了60亿美元到一个很大的程序中，用于这些标签，不仅用在美国公民的身份证里，也包括每年下发的数以10亿计的运输类票证，在这个庞大的程序里实现这些用途。中国不是唯一这么做的国家。现在，你从任何一个欧盟国家取得新护照，你都会看到上边有一个标签，里边含有一点点银。

我们估计照现在的增长率计算，这种标签的产量在2020年将会超过300亿个。比现在增长将近70亿个。

平均每个标签银含量10毫克，这意味着届时将使用超过900万盎司的银，大大高于目前的230万盎司的用量。到2030年以后，这些标签的使用将更为普及，或许会达到每年几千亿个的产量。因此，我们说你只看到很少的一点银被用到每个标签里，但是标签的总产量巨大。

太阳能和反射镜

下面来看另一个较“大”的地方的用途——太阳能和反射镜。近来太阳能电池板工业呈现出成指数的增长。为了使用更清楚的热力和能源，太阳能毫无疑问得到发展。是的，我们承认于传统能量资源相比，太阳能的花费是相对高了些，但是其长期收益也会比较高。每个晶体硅太阳能电池包含大概1.2克银/瓦的能量。与所有其他产业一样，这个产业也深受经济衰退的打击，但是在将来，美国，印度和中国已经宣告要增加各自的太阳能产能，这应该会提振这方面的市场。正是从这里，我们能看到现在的增长。印度已经公布计划，将它的太阳能产量在2020年增加到200亿瓦，而目前实际上为零。同期，中国计划从55亿瓦增加到300亿瓦，美国的计划与中国相同。

因此。全球太阳能装机容量到2020年时将会达到目前130亿瓦的20-40倍。我们看到一些非常乐观的估计说到2050年，太阳能产业将占到全球总供电量的20%。对此说法我们不做评论，因为还为时尚早。但是我们所做的更加保守的估计是2010-2020年间平均复合增长率为15%，这意味着太阳能的装机容量在这段时期将至少增长到原来的4倍。

在考虑了不使用银的太阳能电池板和银使用效率提高的电池板的情况之后，我们预计2020年这个产业大概需要5千万盎司银，高于现在的每年1千8百万盎司用量，的确是很大的用量。

木材防腐剂

银从2004年逐渐开始取代砷作为木材防腐剂，因此这并不是个新闻。大概10年前，这个产业与美国环境保护局意识到要逐步淘汰铬化砷酸铜（CCA）。由于原料含有铬和砷，对于这种产品健康性的考虑与日俱增。银是非致癌替代产品中最有力的竞争者，不仅能抑制真菌生长，还能杀灭白蚁，防止其对木质建筑的啃噬。这种产品已经商业生产一段时间了，而且已经获得美国权威机构的生产许可。由于某些原因，这种新产品的投放被延迟了。我们一直密切关注这方面的动向，三是从消费终端几乎没有什么消息传来，目前市场上对这个问题不可思议的一致保存缄默。现在应该是获取许可证的关键时期，所以生产商都不愿意谈论。如果这种产品成功推广，这对银来说将是一个相当大的市场，尤其在北美和欧洲。另外，我们也知道有一些研究工作试图减少银在这种产品中的用量，最初银的用量为1%，后来有研究试图将用量在不影响产品效果的情况下减少到0.5%甚至是0.1%。因此，我们对这方面银需求的预测比较保守，有人预计用量为一年1亿盎司银，而我们的预测则要保守的多。但是我们将对这个领域保持密切的关注。

全球白银供应和需求的前景(1)

2011-10-23T05:08:00.000-07:00

来源于：贵金属论坛发布时间：2011

导言

自古以来，作为一种投资工具，白银的地位仅次于黄金，被称作是“穷人的黄金”。其中的很多原因都可以从我今天将描述的供需平衡中看出来。在这篇文章中，我主要将论述的是白银市场将会在结构上不断进步，未来在很长时期内，白银市场将不断走强。

在展示我所说的市场走强的依据之前（我认为这将不可避免的改变白银市场），我将先讨论白银市场在哪些地方存在弱势。

白银市场的弱势

通过对白银市场供需平衡的研究，我们发现了3个长期以来一直存在的弱势，分别在原生金属的供应、银的可大量再生特别是在照相业、还有照相业的需求。

第一个弱势是指白银市场中65%的供给都来自于铜、铅、锌，当然还有金的共生或伴生矿。这两个含义：矿产银的生产与银价无关，当世界需要铜铅锌等基本金属时，就像最近5年以来的情况一样，当世界像一直以来的情况一样需要金时，白银就理所应当的被生产出来；其次，由于这样的原因，你无法构造出一条有意义的原生银生产成本曲线，这意味着无法从生产者一级构造边际成本，从而定价，这样在矿山生产变化的时候，银价不会产生相应的合理反映。

第二个弱势是指传统的银消费行业会回收大量的银，这些都要回流到市场里。其中最明显的部门是照相行业。这张图显示的是1980年以来的照相业，我们已经给它建立了一个数据库。现在这个行业已经被数码技术完全取代了。到目前为止，这个过程已经持续了进行近20年。原先，有人认为这个变化不会对这个行业的银需求造成影响。但是就像大浪从底部冲走整个沙丘一样，这样的结果是必然的。越来越少的银被用于这个行业，同时这个图显示我们的预测。可以看出来这不是个在增长的产业。

数码照相业

就像我所说的，多年来照相行业是除医用X光以外能高效回收金属的产业。银以前是，现在仍旧会很快从胶片的制造和加工中被冲刷出来。就像这个图显示的那样，与照相行业很相似，电池、电子到呢个行业也能很高效的回收银。当然，不要忘记从首饰中回收的银，人民会买银饰，佩戴它，回收它，然后再次购买它，这样在银产业中循环往复。

银的回收

我们计算一年会有4亿盎司银回收到产业链中。银在这些产业里可以被回收，回收的银按照价格称重并且以金属计算。

我们注意到这个产业正在调整，当前供需平衡已经开始有了变化，将在未来5-10年里变越来越明显。这个调整并不是来自我们正在讨论的传统生产者和消费领域。在这些生产和消费领域，银都是仍然作为一种流通手段和其他矿产金属的共生或伴生产品。银的需求在照相产业中会继续缩水，尽管好消息是如果说有更少的银被用在照相行业里，那么从这个行业里回收的银业也就更少，这这正是微不足道的安慰。

时代在改变

我们计算一年会有4亿盎司银回收到产业链中。银在这些产业里可以被回收，回收的银按照价格称重并且以金属计算。

我们注意到这个产业正在调整，当前供需平衡已经开始有了变化，将在未来5-10年里变越来越明显。这个调整并不是来自我们正在讨论的传统生产者和消费领域。在这些生产和消费领域，银都是仍然作为一种流通手段和其他矿产金属的共生或伴生产品。银的需求在照相产业中会继续缩水，尽管好消息是如果说有更少的银被用在照相行业里，那么从这个行业里回收的银业也就更少，这这正是微不足道的安慰。

时代在改变

那么这些变化来自哪里呢？来自银独特的生物杀灭剂的特性和对电流出众的传导性。现在世界上的很多问题都可以由银来解决，这个金属将会在适当的时候被用在适当的位置。在9-11之后，安全问题的重要性提高了。全世界，尤其是西方世界，肥胖和卫生保健成为了主要问题。人类将采用更清洁的电力来源，要实现更高效的能源和更干净的水源，而且普遍呼吁净化这个世界使之成为一个整体。当你看到这些问题时，银是个潜在的解决办法。

白银分享区

辛亥革命100周年金银纪念币

Review of the Paper Futures Implications of the HSBC Gold/Silver Lawsuit

请你耐心的看完这片段

If Silver Goes Down All Hell Will Break Loose In The Physical Market: Silver Investment Update

There simply isn't enough physical silver to deal with the demand of a fiat currency crisis. As the paper silver market pushes prices down, all hell will break loose in the physical market.

Silver And Gold Market Price Forecast: Buying Silver Is Like Buying Gold At $554 Today

2012年1oz銀貓800萬枚 - from China News

Chris Martenson's presentation at the Gold & Silver Meeting in Madrid

Robert Kiyosaki : I am a Silver bug

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Interview With Silver Guru Ted Butler

Gold & Silver Game Changer - Central Bank Buying - Mike Maloney

宋鸿兵：依旧看好未来金银价 投资不用杠杆交易

John Embry - Tremendous Manipulation of Both Gold & Silver

Are We Running Out of Silver?

白银泡沫了吗..?

Silver Investment Update by The Silver Institute

藏银、泰银、素银、925银、假银的区别

I Would Prefer Silver To Gold Just On Relative Value

Why Silver will Always Beat Gold

The Country GREATEST Song - The Bernanke Blues

Silver price rising on increased investment demand

世界白银供应和需求

2010年全球白银生产国

世界白银供应和需求

Every Silver Pullback Is A Gift - Mike Maloney

Worried About Silver? Listen to Eric Sprott’s Stump Speech

全球白银供应和需求的前景(3)

全球白银供应和需求的前景(2)

全球白银供应和需求的前景(1)

宋鸿兵：依旧看好未来金银价投资不用杠杆交易