EQUITY SECTION

Bajaj Corp: Target Price- Rs 800/share

2016-02-08T22:36:00.001+05:30

Bajaj Corp Limited

Bajaj Corp is involved in manufacturing and selling of FMCG products. Bajaj Corp owns brands like Bajaj Almond Hair Oil, NoMarks, Kailash Parbat and other Bajaj range of hair oils.

The Company is a debt-free Company. The Composition of Total Liabilities of the Company for the financial year ending March 2015 is shown below.

The composition of Total Assets of the Company for the financial year ending March 2015 is shown below.

Since 2011, Bajaj Corp is having a Sales CAGR of 23.11% till March 2015. The Company did a Sales of Rs. 825.62 crores in March 2015 for the full financial year. The Company might fall short of crossing Rs. 1,000 crores of Sales in the financial year 2015-16. The December quarter which is historically a strong quarter displayed dismal growth. It has been doing so for the past two financial years.

The Company has excellent EBIDTA margins. In the financial year ended March 2015, the Company had an EBIDTA of 32.80%. In the current financial year, the Company is maintaining average EBIDTA margin of 31.15% which is more or less the same. In terms of PAT, the Company had PAT margins of 21% in the financial year ending March 2015. Currently, the Company is maintaining average PAT margin of 22.53% during this financial year.

For the year ending March 2015, the Company displayed an RoCE of 48.10% which is an all-time high in the history of this Company and this includes Cash of Rs. 134 crores in the base. The Company has a negative Cash Conversion Cycle of 4 days which is quiet positive for the Company.

Challenges going forward

It is quiet visible that the great Indian consumption story is slowing down. And it has impacted Bajaj Corp too. Despite new brand addition of NoMarks, the sales have not picked up. The Company has brought changes in marketing strategy of NoMarks which can take some time to yield fruit. The Company has also entered a foreign market in Bangladesh which might take some time to show results. The hopes are high on NoMarks brand and Bangladesh market to show growth.

Something special!

The Company has a great track record in doling out dividends for its shareholders. In the financial year ending March 2015, the Company blessed its shareholders by distributing 90% of its PAT as dividends. And despite that, it sits on Rs. 134 crores of cash.

Also, the Company is amortising 11.74 crores every quarter for the acquisition of brand NoMarks. This expense will go away in results of December quarter of year 2017 which will expand the profit margins greatly by another 5.50% thus taking the profit margins to 30%.

Valuation

Despite hiccups, we expect Bajaj Corp to give a decent growth of 20% and more. We carried out the Discounted Cash Flow valuation technique on Bajaj Corp and came out with a valuation target of Rs. 800 per share.

Disclaimer

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisers to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidelines only.

Dilemna of valuations in stock investing

2013-11-05T19:54:00.003+05:30

The year 2013 has been a see-saw for Indian stock markets. The Current Account deficit, the gold demand, the FED tapering, the American debt ceiling all provided the unhindered volatility in prices. 4 months ago, the rupee depreciation caused everybody to write off Indian equity markets with huge sell-off by FIIs. And on this date, Indian stock exchanges are making daily 5-year highs. This is being done primarily on account of huge FII buying while there is little Indian participation, either on retail or institutional front.

There must be a sense amongst the common lot that they have been left out. And they will be eager to ride the bandwagon. And there comes the question of stock selection and valuations. Equity investments is for long term and not for momentum trading. While stock selection is the easiest job when it comes to equity investments, people err when it comes to valuations. In the internet world of today, there are readymade models of valuations available everywhere. But do they suffice, its arguable.

Analysts study valuations either on relational or intrinsic premise. Relational valuations are about comparisons between peers and indices. For example, PE ratio or Market Value-to-Book Value ratio are relational valuation measures. We can compare different stocks or companies using these ratios. Intrinsic valuation is that valuation when we try to value a company on a standalone basis based upon its intrinsic parameters. The most common intrinsic valuation known is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. Here we tend to measure the present value of future cash flows generated by the business of the company.

Lets take the instance of the Discounted Cash Flow valuation. It seems the best method to value any business based upon its future cash generation. But here comes the question: is a business dynamic or static? DCF valuations are generally carried over a future 10-year period of a business. We suppose that the business will not undergo any change during this period. Is this feasible? In the world we live in, businesses undergo changes every 3rd or 4th year. Jyothy Labs acquires Henkel which nobody knew about 3 years ago. Piramal Enterprises sells its bread and butter business to Abbott nobody could dream about. Some company undergoes equity dilution. Some takes a huge debt to fuel its big expansion. There are scores of examples all around. We simply can't crystal gaze a business beyond a 5-year period and its still difficult. Then in that case, is DCF valuation reliable?

The most general and widespread method of valuation is relational valuation method. Amongst them, PE ratio is the most widely accepted method. Almost every investor uses this terminology while commenting upon investments or business analysis. PE ratio gives an easy way to compare businesses on earnings parameter. Sometimes, its used specific to sectors and sometimes, its used in a universal sense. Even indices are considered undervalued or overvalued based upon PE ratio. Now, what is an undervalued PE ratio or overvalued PE ratio? Such a judgement is subjective in nature. I generally compare PE with fixed deposit (FD) returns. Suppose, a bank gives 10% on FDs. That mean on every Rs. 100 invested in FDs, you get Rs.10 as earnings. That gives you a 10 PE. I was listening to a discussion on a news channel wherein Manish Chokhani, MD and CEO of Axis Capital further simplified the concept of undervalued or overvalued PE ratio. He stated that the highest interest returns in India can be around 9% which gives you a 11 PE. And the lowest interest returns will be around 5% which gives you a 20 PE. In a way, this gives you a range of 11-20 PE. One can decide the PE ratio valuation using this range. But PE ratio only reflects earnings. It doesn't take into account the inherent strengths of business like brandings, advance payments etc. This is its foremost shortcoming.

I will advise upcoming investors to take a holistic approach. One can never ignore the fundamentals of businesses. The stock selection is the stage one cannot falter at all. One will have to be farsighted when selecting a business to buy. And the valuation will be based upon the very assumptions made during stock selection. Whether to go beyond a PE range of 20 to buy a business will be based upon those assumptions and the same goes with DCF analysis too. But this doesn't let the investor to drop guards post investment. The businesses change so rapidly that one will have to be always on the lookout. Any sudden changes should be factored in immediately.

This article is also posted at http://stockmusings.com/dilemma-valuations-stock-investing/.

Stock Trading Games - boon or bane?

2013-10-29T20:58:00.001+05:30

On the day of the last session before Diwali vacations, ICICI Securities came at our Institute of Management, Nirma University to invite us to play Stock Mind, their stock trading game. Even the Placement Committee got so bullish that they took to their ego and made mandatory for everybody to listen to their harangue. The people from ICICI Securities painted rosy picture about stock markets and talked about wealth creation. They took great pain to explain the way inflation ate returns from fixed assets or any other asset class for that matter. I am sure they were able to catch the fancy of most of the lot listening to them.

Most of us would be playing the game by now. And they would definitely be enjoying playing Rs.1,500,000 of virtual money. I am sure some people would have success in terms of making profits while others would be making losses. I hope people having success aren't carried away by their lady luck. And those who are losing might have felt by now that its a pure gambling game. There is no logic involved in it apart from chance, sheer luck. Those having success can boast about having better degree of intuition or God's gift or sixth sense or whatever you name it. There are still days to go into this game and we will all see about that precious gift unfolding.

The point being made here is that one must not be carried by being successful in such trading games. If it would have been a real hard-earned Rs. 1,500,000 in your hands, would one have played such a gamble? Stock markets are about valuations. Those are valuations that go green or red on the marketwatch of your trading terminal. And valuations are reflections of the efficiency of a business. They are not slave to somebody's imagination or intuition. There might be temporary variations. And traders generally try to make hay during this period. But when it corrects, its bad for those uninformed herd-followers.

We must never forget the 2008 financial apocalypse. It happened because of this particular nonsense intuition where people kept on taking unnecessary risks to the tip of the iceberg. And then, we know about the aftermath, the great floods, the deluge. Economies haven't recovered since then.

Lesson- Intuition is illogical and bereft of any basis. I hope people discover it here in this game, rather than burning their hands out their in actual merciless world.

Effect of elephants on markets

2013-08-12T15:00:00.003+05:30

Today while in the marketing class, Prof. P.K. Yadav gave us a situation to work with wherein he took names of four animals and asked us to come out with companies related to the characteristics of animals. One notable name which he took was that of elephant. Elephant is a mammoth mammal which is herbivorous and nobody preys upon it (except when its a calf, some lions might get lucky).This is an animal which feeds upon the natural vegetation merrily without any damn and consequences and isn't part of the food chain later i.e. doesn't become a food for carnivores. It gulps down a huge amount of vegetation and when it gets mad, it causes destruction too. A herd of elephants in an area can be a headache for the local ecology.

It reminded me of companies like Kingfisher Airlines, Suzlon, DLF, Unitech, Educomp Solutions etc. which kept on feeding on the easily available credit of our economic system without any due consideration given to the state of their Balance-Sheets and the damage they were causing to the economic ecology or at least the banking system of our country. Their managements acted like alpha-males taking on unnecessary huge risks and expansions funded by credit as if they were some piece of cake. These companies are still on the horizon mainly because they can't be allowed to falter and that's why there is frequent injection of money supply to let the banking system function to normal pace, but because of which the common man has to suffer the pain or pinch of inflation. And the shareholders have to face the loss of value.

Issues with The Companies Bill, 2012

2013-08-12T04:05:00.000+05:30

The main issues still lingering with the Companies Bill, 2012 are:

The concept of independent directors is being brought for the first time in the Companies Bill, 2012. 1/3rd of the board will comprise of independent directors. Do we really think promoters will allow "true independent directors" on board?
Are there enough "true independent directors" available in the market?
Independent directors are allowed 20 directorships at a time of different companies. How can one really contribute in a significant manner protecting shareholders' interests if one serves on 20 different boards simultaneously? Can he or she get that quality time?
2% on profits has been mandated to be spent upon Corporate Social Responsibilities (CSR). But the term "CSR" hasn't been concretely defined. Nobody knows where the money will be directed towards. Whether it'll go to an NGO surreptitiously involved in black money laundering or towards a genuine NGO involved in underprivileged child education, its highly unpredictable. Also, will it be used for building useless temples on government granted lands for pompous religious purposes or their concern will be genuine social upliftment? Things are still to be clear on that front.
Class action suits have been enabled in the new Companies Bill, 2012. This'll help protect shareholders' interests and prevent Satyam-like fiascos. Now the hard question is whether the shareholders of government owned companies can sue the government. In 2012, Coal India was directed by government to provide coal at lower prices and pained by this, one of the shareholders', The Children Investment Fund, took Coal India to courts. No such light has been shed on this.
There is a provision for at least 1 woman independent director out of 5 independent directors on a board of the company. While the move is directed towards gender equality, there is a huge scarcity for quality women in leadership roles in businesses. Rather than dictating terms on this issue here, the government should focus upon women empowerment and their upliftment. Reservation of any sort in business sphere is going to be counter-productive.
A huge responsibility and liability has been attached to the position of the directors of the company. The Board of the Company now straightaway means a collective body of directors of the company. Director's Identification Number (DIN) has been made mandatory by the Central Government for directorship or else he can't be a director in any company. In times like today, where privacy is getting more and more prized and dificult to maintain, getting on the government watch-list can be a serious dissuader for quality directors, especially independent ones who might not like to be pried upon.

Are shareholders part owners of the company?

2013-06-18T11:39:00.000+05:30

Shareholders are not part-owners of the company in the eyes of the law. Shareholders can't claim part-ownership in the property of the company. Shareholders simply stay as members of the company. They have been given certain rights by the law such as, to attend meetings, to vote and to receive dividends. This was stated clearly by the Supreme Court in Bacha F. Guzdar vs CIT (supra).

In the eyes of the law, the Company has a separate legal existence as has been envisaged by The Companies Act, 1956. A Company is a juristic person capable of carrying out business activities in its own name. It is a legal entity distinct from its members or shareholders and thus has its own set of rights, duties and liabilities which are separate from the shareholders'. The limited liability of the shareholders or members of the company arises only from this separate legal existence of the company.

RBI issues fresh directive on Gold imports

2013-06-15T12:34:00.002+05:30

Earlier Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had restricted import of gold to consignment basis by banks to meet the genuine needs of jewellery exporters. Now, this provision has been extended to all authorised dealers, nominated agencies or star trading houses taken into account the demands of jewellery exporters. All Letters of Credit (LoCs) are to be issued by such agencies on 100% cash margin basis for all categories of gold imports. Futher, gold will be imported against Documents against Payment basis as against Documents against Aceeptance basis. This requirement willn't be exercised in case of exports of gold jwellery.

Effect of Gold on Current Account Deficit (CAD) of India

2013-06-13T15:07:00.001+05:30

First I'll explain as to what exactly Current Account Deficit or CAD really is. Current Account Deficit happens when your export income isn't able to match your import liabilities. It happens when you earn dollars less than what you spend. Since, international trade happens in dollar denominations, earning dollars is primarily important which also reflects upon the strength of an economy.

Now, the question arises: Why're we earning less dollars? Its because global demand is lull post recession periods of 2009 and our export sector, whether its a manufacturing or services sector, isn't able to gather much business growth. Also, we're facing increased competition from other developing nations in terms of capturing demand at lower prices.

Now, the second comes up: Why're we spending more dollars? We have been historically reliant upon imports of oil for our energy needs. Now, we have also started importing coal too. The biggest import bill comes from energy needs only which is understandable & necessary too.

Now the question shoots: What the sudden fuss then, since its been like this for ages and we have managed it? The answer is there is one more thing that has added greatly to our import bills. That's the shining, glittering yellow metal called GOLD which is the envy of neighbours and owners' pride.

Indian population is infatuated with this yellow metal. It has got an unlimited appetite for Gold. We all know that gold isn't found in India. We have to import it. And when we import it, we have to pay in dollars. Recently, demand of gold as an asset boomeranged post recession after stock market collapses throughout the world. Also, government and investment advisors also promoted it as an excellent bet against inflation and Gold futures and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) spruced up all over the capital markets. Gold started being used a guarantee against loans and gold loan companies came over the horizon, such as Muthoot Gold Finance Company and Manappuram Finance Ltd. These events led to a rally or spurt in the prices of Gold, both nationally & internationally, which led to greed. More and more money started pouring into this yellow commodity. Everybody wished to buy or invest in gold either physically or in form of derivatives or ETFs which led to the opening of floodgates of demand of this shiny metal.....

And then suddenly, government found itself short of dollars to pay for that gold. Such is the extent of shortage that our foreign exchange reserves (excluding gold) is now around 65% of the total outstanding debt. The country can't cover its liabilities today if its asked to do suddenly in terms of money. So, the Ministry of Finance in consultation with Reserve Bank of India passed out strictures to trading institutions to curb down gold imports and fixed a quota to it. Guidelines have been passed to banks to decrease their gold imports and holdings. Strictures over gold loans is also being contemplated. Yesterday, the Finance Minister suggested the public of India to dissuade from buying gold. He's talking about self-restrictions on the part of government from buying gold for a year. And, suddenly the gold has lost its glitter.....

Recently, the Government Of India introduced "inflation bonds" and invited public participation into that bond. This bond is very well meant to suck up the excessive liquidity in the hands of the public by promising them returns adjusted for inflation which would have otherwise gone into gold, since the common man can think of nothing else. The money collected through such a process can easily be put to use to other productive functions of the economy, like infrastructure, education, healthcare etc, while gold, as an asset, would have stayed idle being adorned on the napes or in the safe boxes of bedrooms and banks.

Now, since the government has started taking a stand against gold imports and India is one of the topmost consumers of the gold in the world, a lackadaisical demand from India is going to wring heavily on gold as an asset internationally. The gold prices can fall internationally in anticipation of weakened demand from India. Also, a couple of years ago, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bought up around 400 tonnes of gold. In order to bring in order the CAD, if the RBI sells the gold reserves in international markets, international gold prices will be in for a rude shock and it can go down sharply. Since, domestic gold markets follow international prices, the savings of common men in form of gold will also get battered down.

Has the gold lost its sheen?

Shortcomings of Financial Statements

2012-11-16T22:54:00.001+05:30

Financial statements are prepared by every company to gauge its performance, to report its performance to its shareholders and to comply by regulatory requirements. Though, financial statements provide wealth of information, but it has loads of shortcomings.

Financial statements rely everything on book value. They never give you a reflection of market value. They never tell you about the market value of assets it holds. Suppose, a company buys a fixed asset like land or building, it always gives the numbers in terms of original or historical cost. It never tells you the present market value of that particular asset. Thus, for every asset, it always gives you the book value. It never gives you the market value.
Financial statement records the cost of the "bought" assets by the company in its statements. But it never records assets created by efforts of the company. For example, a company never records the value of the product or patent created by its Research and Development, though it'll record the value of a bought patent in its financial statements.
Financial statements categorise expenses as operating, financial and capital expenses. Financial statements often err while categorising a particular expense. For example, expenses made on fixed assets are considered as capital expenses by a company and are depreciated or amortised over a period of time. Patents are also assets, but expenses made on its R&D are considered as operating expenses. Similarly, operating leases are also considered as operating expenses which rather should be considered as financial expenses.
Financial statements report the assets on which investment has been already made, but they never tell us about assets on which investment is to be done. This later investment will open new growth avenues for the company. For example, fruits of R&D and patents can be considered as such assets.
Like assets, financial statements don't reflect the market value of liabilities, like debt and shareholders' equity. They simply reflect the book value as usual.
While financial statements are geared towards finding whether a company will be able to meet its obligations of debt and payments to suppliers, they don't throw any light on risk to equity investors.

Why stock market defies the natural law of economics?

2012-10-24T17:50:00.001+05:30

In Economics, its stated that with higher prices, demand falls and when prices drops, demand increases. Its just the opposite when it comes to stock markets. People buy when prices are sky-rocket high and they stay away from stock markets when its cheap. People often turn a blind eye to stocks when the valuations are at dirt cheap and will rush to grab when the valuations are sheer nonsense. Its very difficult to comprehend this situation when people don't buy a dozen of banana at high prices, then why they happen to buy stocks at costly valuations. When people stop buying and consuming a kg of onion at Rs. 40-50 as part of their food, then how they were able to buy Suzlon Energy at Rs. 500, Educomp Solutions at Rs. 800 or DLF at Rs. 1200 prior to the recession of 2008-09. Currently, Suzlon Energy is trading at Rs. 15, Educomp Solutions at Rs. 158 and DLF at Rs. 205. And when people rush to buy a kg. of onion at Rs. 20-25, they were too sceptical to buy Hawkins Cookers at Rs. 130, TTK Prestige at Rs. 90 or Titan Industries at Rs. 35 during the downturn of 2008-09. Currently, Hawkins Cookers is trading at Rs. 1800, TTK Prestige at Rs. 3100 and Titan Industries at Rs. 275. This is where investors defy the basic law of Economics that with higher prices, demand falls and when prices drops, demand increases. People are all vice versa to that in respect to their stock investments. This is a question worth pondering over. I'm not able to find the answers. Perhaps people can. Kindly comment.

Dynamics of Profit and Loss Statement

2012-10-24T14:47:00.000+05:30

The Profit and Loss Statement of a business or a company tells a lot about the business. Analysing the statement historically can give one important insights into the functioning of the business. The Profit and Loss statement tells us about what the business has done and what it has earned over a period of time. It tells us about the working dynamics of the business.

The Profit and Loss statement consists of following parts, in general:

Operating Revenue
Cost of Raw Materials
Purchase of Traded Goods
Salaries and Wages
Sales, Promotion and Marketing Expenditure
Other Expenditure
Depreciation
Financial Expenditure
Other Income
Taxation
Profit after Tax

The Operating Expenses which includes the items from 2-6 above will tell you much about the nature of business. The percentage of Cost of Raw Materials and Traded Goods to that of Operating Revenue will tell you whether the business is a commodity business or branded one. Suppose, if the percentage of Cost of Raw Materials and Traded Goods to that of Operating Revenue is around 30%, then surely its the brand and quality for which the customer is paying. If its around 80%, then the customer is basically paying for the commodity.

Lower percentage of Cost of Raw Materials means higher Operating Margins for the business. The business will be able to pay its employees handsomely. It also indicates towards ensuing competition and thus higher spending of branding, promotions, advertisements to have customer loyalty and recognition. Higher percentage means lower Operating Margins. The business will keep a strict tab on employee count and salaries. It indicates towards saturation of the business sector and commoditisation of the business.

Another important aspect in the Profit & Loss Statement of a business is Depreciation. Depreciation costs results from depreciation of Fixed Assets in the Balance-Sheet. Higher Depreciation costs will result in lower Net Profits, but improved Operating Cash Flows. Higher Depreciation costs also cause companies to escape taxation costs for the said period.

Thus, careful analysis of Profit & Loss statements of the business can indicate towards key variables of the business. Careful monitoring of these key variables can help one in prediction of future revenues and profitability of the business.

Operating Margins

2012-10-20T14:03:00.001+05:30

Every business has its characteristic Operating Margins. Operating Margins don't expand and retract radically with passing time. Its the level below which the business doesn't wish to sell. Operating margins are calculated after taking into account fixed operating costs. It simply can't be calculated straightaway. The level is reached after a number of internal assessments. In case of brands, supposed brand value is also incorporated into the margins. A healthy Operating Margin is essential for the growth of the business.

Operating Margin can't just be increased at will as it'll result in increment of prices taking into account that fixed operating costs is constant. Increased prices of products can result in your competition eating into your market share or customers turning away from you or cutting their discretionary spending. Increased Operating Margins from increase in prices shall be viewed with caution. Operating Margins can also improve from certain structural changes in fixed operating costs. Reduction in any kind of fixed operating costs can lead to improvement of Operating Margins which must be welcome.

Deterioration in Operating Margins shall be probed vigorously by investors. Operating Margins getting deteriorated because of reduction in prices of products can indicate to the commoditisation of the industry in which the business is operating. If the reduction in margins is because of changes in strucuture of fixed operating costs, then the management of the company must be taken to task by the investors. It can also point towards deteriorating corporate governance.

Thus, Operating Margins of a business shall be studied historically. It can easily tell you how the business has fared in the past and can give important insights about its future.

Reliance Industries Limited - Steady and Still

2012-10-19T20:38:00.001+05:30

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is one of the largest companies of India by market capitalization. The business has interests in petrochemicals, oil and gas exploration, textiles, retail. Reliance Industries has been a very dominant force in Indian industry circles. In March 2012, RIL did a sales of Rs. 3,58,501 crores, a growth of 34% over last year. RIL has Operating Margins of 11%. RoCE for RIL is 16.50%.

Despite such huge size and in engineering sector, RIL has excellent Operating Cash Flows. RIL gets its money from its customers within 17 days. RIL consumes its Inventories within 52 days. RIL pays its suppliers after 46 days. Overall, RIL is able to converts its money within 22 days, which most of the engineering goods companies in India will be jealous of. Debt/Equity for this company is at 0.48. This is possible because of the quick cash conversion by RIL as it provides liquidity at their hands.

RIL is sustaining and still growing stronger, despite its huge size, because of the quick cash conversion cycle. Its because of the positive Operating Cash Flows. Any company, big or small, will suffer down the line if they fumble with their Operating Cash Flows. Thus, investors must pay dear attention to Operating Cash Flows.

Dish TV - sab par "Loss" sawaar hai - Dish karo yaa Ditch karo?

2012-10-19T09:33:00.000+05:30

Dish TV was the first company in India to roll out DTH services in India. It roped in Shahrukh Khan as its brand ambassador. Ever since Dish TV initiated itself, it is beset with problems. For a long time, Dish TV suffered operating losses. In the mean time, they underwent equity dilution couple of times.

In financial year March 2012, revenue from operations was Rs. 1957 crores, an increase of over 36% on Rs. 1436 crores of revenues registered last year. Operating Profits greatly improved at Rs. 566.7 crores at a margin of 29% as compared to Rs. 360.66 crores at a margin of 25%. The Net Loss suffered by the company is mainly because of Depreciation and Interest costs. Loans have greatly increased to Rs. 1214 crores from Rs. 648 crores over last year, an increase of 87% which can be a bit of concern. RoCE is coming out to be 50% for this year, which is quiet impressive in terms of business returns. This is mainly because Dish TV operates on negative working capital. The company has good positive operating cash flows despite Net Loss, mainly on account of huge Depreciations in the Profit and Loss statements.

Since, financial year ending March 2010, Dish TV has started giving positive Operating Profits and the Operating Margins have been improving by great leaps since. The Net Loss has also been reducing year by year as Dish TV is able to add on more and more subscribers while retaining older ones.

One major concern about Dish TV is that this company has a complex equity structure and also with frequent dilutions in form of ESOPs. Dish TV incurs heavy expenditure on Fixed Assets, especially on the part of Consumer Premise Equipment (CPE), which the company depreciates over 5 years and the one-time contribution towards by CPEs by customers is recognised as revenue by the company over a period of 3 years. Also, Dish TV has huge borrowings, mainly in terms of buyer's credit, which is understood, as bulk of equipments are imported by Dish TV into India. And since, the company is still to give Net Profits and to have easy liquidity at hands, it has no other route apart from availing buyer's credit.

Its a common knowledge that DTH services has a high gestation period because of enormous expenditure on creation of infrastructure and public awareness. Dish TV is struggling from the same fact but seems to be on the way to break even. Yet, its complex equity structure and ESOPs are going to be sore points for investors.

Which business will grow faster?

2012-10-17T11:00:00.000+05:30

I'll give you case of two businesses. I'll first explain the situation around these businesses.

Business 1: The revenue is growing at 25% annually. Similar is the growth of Profit After Tax. At present, the company has no debt. Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) is at 30%. Operating Cash Flows are 25% of the Operating Profits.

Business 2: The revenue is growing at 25% annually. Similar is the growth of Profit After Tax. At present, the company has no debt. Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) is at 30%. Operating Cash Flows are 120% of the Operating Profits.

The difference between the above two instances is Operating Cash Flows. What is going to be the impact of Operating Cash Flows?

Business 1: Despite everything good about calculations, the profits made by the business is only on paper. The business has dismal Operating Cash Flows. It suggests that most of the revenues of the company are stuck with the customers of the company. And, in the meantime, the company has to pay its suppliers. So, despite making profits, the company is actually losing cash. Now, two situations can emerge here. First, the company has to take Working Capital Loans to pay off its suppliers. That has interest cost and that'll eat into Net Profit margins and will take away a slice of Operating Cash Flows too when it comes. Second, The business intends to expand later on, but the business is already struggling with Operating Cash Flows and has Working Capital Loans. So, now the business will have to take long-term loans to aid its expansion. Thus, here the business is stuck into loans and interest costs, which'll hamper its real growth down the line.

Business 2: Here, the situation is different. Operating Cash Flows is even greater than Operating Profits. It means that not only the revenues from its customers is coming in upfront, but they're also delaying their payments to their suppliers or they get credit period from their suppliers. Here, the company is flush with cash coming from their business. They have no need for loans for their Working Capital needs. They'll have ample funds to fuel their expansion or growth. Their margins are never going to suffer.

So, who's going to grow faster? Kindly comment below.

What Rakesh Jhunjhunwala saw in DB Realty?

2012-10-15T12:04:00.000+05:30

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala recently made an investment into DB Realty. This is the same company whose Chairman, Shahid Balwa, was made a party to 2G accusations list a few months ago. The Chairman and the company was shown to have provided Mr. Sharad Pawar, Agriculture Minister with certain favours.

In financial year ending March 2012, DB Realty did an annual sales of Rs. 590.86 crores, almost half of what it did in the previous year. Operating Profit is at Rs. 124 crores at a margin of around 20%. Debt/Equity ratio is at 0.06. Total Assets of the company is at Rs. 5191.08 crores. Working Capital of the company is Rs. 1363 crores. Fixed Assets is Rs. 245 crores. RoCE is 7.11%. Share price is Rs. 98.75.

What we can see from here id that DB Realty is very under-leveraged as compared to other real-estate companies. Debt is at a very comfortable situation. If we talk about Total Assets, Total Assets per share of the company is coming out to be Rs. 213.44 crores. If we talk about Capital Employed, Capital Employed per Share is at Rs. 66.11. In June quarter this year, the company did Sales of only Rs. 85 crores made a net loss. If we see just at Project Expenses only as a percentage of Sales, its ranging between 60-90% over several quarters.

So, what could have made Rakesh Jhunjhunwala commit an investment into this company. First, Total Assets per share of the company is way beyond the current Share price. Second, certain projects of the company have been recently completed and others are due completion in near months. Will one invest into it based upon these parameters? Will this company provide a steady stream of revenues, profits and operating cash flows?

The fizzling Suzlon Energy

2012-10-13T23:12:00.000+05:30

In the financial year March 2005, Suzlon Energy did an Annual Sales of Rs. 1942.48 crores. They did an Operating Profit of Rs. 473.40 crores, the Operating Margins being 24.37%. Capital employed was Rs. 1300 crores. RoCE came out to be around 35%. Debt/Equity ratio was about 0.50.

In the financial year March 2012, Suzlon Energy did an Annual Sales of Rs. 21,082.37 crores. They grew their Sales by 10 times from 2005. Operating Profit came out to be Rs. 1544.36 crores with the margin percentage being 7.33%. Capital Employed is around Rs. 15,500 crores. RoCE is at around 10%. Debt/Equity ratio is 2.

The maximum Sales was recorded in the year 2009 at Rs. 26,081 crore. Maximum debt was also acquired in the same financial year of 2009 as debt jumped 4 times from Rs. 390 crores in financial year 2005 to Rs. 14,700 crores. Most of the debt was meant for fixed assets for fixed assets walloped 3 times to Rs. 13,281 crores from Rs. 4568 crores. Capital Employed for that year is Rs. 24,500 crores. Operating Profit for the same year is Rs. 2849.71 crores at margin of 11%. RoCE came out to be around 10%.

A few interesting observations can be made from the above paragraphs. Sales was growing between 2005 and 2009 at around 190% CAGR, while RoCE in 2005 dropped from 35% to 10% in 2009. Definitely, the company required debt to fuel its expansion as business wasn't generating that kind of money to be invested in Fixed Assets, especially Operating Margins also suffered greatly. And, one can add to it frequent dilution of equity. Since financial year March 2010, company is in loss, primarily because of the huge interest expenditure incurred by huge debts. And in the quarter June 2012, there is, in fact, an operating loss for the first time.

Overall, the purpose was just to state that the business suffered greatly because of its astronomical expansion within a short span of time. The debt condition is deteriorating enough along with interest expenses. This states here that sometimes too much growth can also ruin the business especially if the growth is dependent on debt and when RoCE from the business is lower than the interest expenses. Infact, in the financial year 2007, RoCE started deteriorating when debt increased from Rs. 400 crores in 2006 to Rs. 5000 crores in 2007. Since then, debt has been on the uphill and RoCE and shareholder returns are all downhill.

Mismatch between Operating Cash Flows and Return on Capital Employed (RoCE)

2012-10-13T14:38:00.002+05:30

Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) is the return on Fixed Assets as well as Working Capital. It indicates towards the efficient use of the two forms of capital. RoCE indicates towards the efficiency of the business. It indicates towards effective capital allocation. A company/business with higher RoCE is deemed good.

Operating Cash flows is the actual amount of money emerging from the business. It takes into stock money stuck in inventories, with customers and money given as advances or paid as loans. Thus, operating Cash Flow is pure cash coming out of the business within a period of time. Net Profits or Operating Profits is just profits or money on paper, while Operating Cash Flows is the crude cash coming out of the business. Operating Cash Flows as a proportion of Net Profits or Operating Profits is an effective indicator of the Cash Conversion Cycle of the business.

Thus, even though a business or company might have a higher RoCE, it doesn't necessarily mean that they're generating actual Cash. If a business isn't able to churn out actual cash, then it will have to take Working Capital Loans to maintain the running of business, thus incurring interest expenses and lowering of Net Profits. So, a lone look at RoCE doesn't actually work.

Working Capital and Return on Capital Employed (RoCE)

2012-10-12T20:57:00.000+05:30

Working Capital or Net Current Assets is the difference between Current Assets and Current Liabilities. This is the money with which the business is run. Working Capital makes Sales happen. Working Capital is arranged in the form of Inventories, Sundry Debtors or Account Receivables and Sundry Creditors or Account Payables. The distribution of the capital between the three items becomes the face of any business. This distribution is characteristic of a particular business and a business is seldom able to change this structure over its lifetime. This distribution of capital is indicative to investors to be worthy of investment. Everybody will like to be invested in business which lower distribution of capital in Inventories and Sundry Debtors. This indicates that inventory is readily consumed and sale money is not stuck with customers.

As I said earlier, Working Capital makes Sales happen. Working Capital is the money with which we buy Inventories, process it, then sell it, receive the cash from customers and pay the suppliers of the inventories. The ratio of Sales and Working Capital indicates the efficient use of Working Capital. Its an important indicator which an investor must pay attention to.

Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) is simply Operating Profits over Capital Employed. Capital Employed is the addition of Fixed Assets and Working Capital. RoCE is an effective indication of the returns being generated from the business. It indicates the effective use of Fixed Assets and Working Capital.

Thus, a better RoCE is mainly reliant upon the effective use of Working Capital. The arrangement of the capital across the components of Working Capital and RoCE indicates towards the quality of the business.

The sad story of Educomp Solutions

2012-10-11T22:26:00.000+05:30

People hear about rags to riches story a lot. We're going to talk about Educomp Solutions. Educomp Solutions was the first mover in the digital educational content provider space. In short span of time, it grew tremedously providing a booster to shareholders' value. Something around the end of 2008 started going wrong for the company. Satyam fiasco happened at that time. Satyam was accused of inflating its revenues and its Chairman Ramlinga Raju accepted the fraud committed by him. Around that time, CBI also started looking into Educomp. Though, nothing emerged concretely but it was rumoured that Educomp Solutions was cooking its books similarly to Satyam. It was inflating its revenues to drive the share prices. Educomp must had some political connections to get the CBI off its back. Then, after some time, SEBI summoned the Chairman Shantanu Prakash for some insider trading antics. SEBI and Shantanu Prakash reached a non-disclosure agreement by paying SEBI a certain amount of fine. It was rumoured that the Chairman and other high-end employees of the company were involved in insider trading. In 2009-2010, they raised Rs. 607 crores through private placements and diluted shareholders' equity. In 2011, an Income-Tax raid happened on Educomp Solution premises. Meanwhile, Chairman Shantanu Prakash started having bitter relations with his then CFO, Sangeeta Gulati, who resigned from Educomp Solutions very recently. It was rumoured in Educomp Solutions workplace that Sangeeta Gulati wielded more influence on Educomp Solutions than the Chairman himself. In the beginning of 2012, the company was able to raise money to pay off the burdensome FCCBs overseas. In 2011, they were able to securitise certain of their fixed assets with the help of the banks to improve their operating cash flows. But nothing much happened to that extent, as the company was laden with debts and with operating cash flows still struggling. Meanwhile, other big players entered this sector and have now almost commoditised this sector with the revenue per unit falling down.

From 2008 to 2012, Educomp Soplutions has trebled its debt. From 2010 onwards, profits have suffered a lot for this company. They have almost halved. For 2012, profits are already down. EPS has halfed from 2011 onwards. Despite securitisation programme, fixed assets are continuously growing up. Net Cash Flows have turned negative from 2010 onwards. Recently, the company announced that it needed to borrow money again. And, revenue per unit is falling down in wake of new entrants entering this sector. Stock prices are ever falling down. From highs of Rs. 600 in 2010 to dismal lows of Rs. 128 in 2012, this company is witnessing a gradual decline. In late 2011, Chairman Shantanu Prakash was talking about selling some of the fixed assets like schools to compensate for required money.

We can just hope that this company doesn't become a riches-to-rags story.

Behind the concept of Discounted Cash Flows

2012-10-11T13:17:00.000+05:30

Discounted Cash Flow is all about valuing future cash flows from a business and then discounting it by a percentage value to the current value of those future cash flows. The percentage value can be your minimum expected returns or any current safe guaranteed returns from fixed deposits or bonds. If the current value of those future cash flows comes out to be higher than the amount you're going to invest in the present, then its deemed a safe investment. Now there are three variables in this concept.

First, it is the time frame for which you'll be calculating the future cash flows,
then its the growth percentage which you'll factor in to guess out the future cash flows every year, and
the discount percentage.

These variables are vulnerable to individual's perception about a business and as it is, future can't be correctly stated.

But the question is about the preeminence of Discounted Cash Flow? Why investors all over the globe fall for this concept? Why value investors kneel before it and swear allegiance to it?

Discounted Cash Flows isn't simply about the guesswork of future cash flows from a business. Existing cash flows from any business go back into the company's Balance Sheet as Cash and Bank Balances, ready to be used for the company's purposes or growth or expansion. They're not meant there to be idle. Over a course of time, these incoming cash flows will be used to fuel growth. These cash flows will become assets for the company in future, Fixed Assets or Working Capital, and will aid in further expansion of business and will lead to increased future cash flows from the business.

So, if one is calculating future cash flows in present, he'll able to calculate cash flows only from the existing business or existing level of business. One'll not be able to gauge the growth in business from the utility of the future cash flows. Now, since future cash flows will get converted into assets for the company, the investor ultimately pays for the future total assets of the company or business which will in turn dole out further future cash flows. Thats why an investor valuing a business using Discounted Cash Flow model pays so much attention to the management antics as the perfect utility of the future cash flows depends upon the will and capacity of the management.

In a way, Discounted Cash Flow is a very strong, potent and conservative way of valuing any business. It really discounts the business for any growth resulting from the ensuing cash flows by sticking to the present condition of the business. If valued appropriately using Discounted Cash Flow model, an investor must reap rich dividends (in both forms).

The Curious Case of Mr. Robert Vadra "Gandhi"

2012-10-08T12:18:00.001+05:30

The recent news reflecting upon supposed financial misdemeanor by DLF and Robert Vadra is coming to the point of "Loans and Advances" by DLF and Robert Vadra's companies. DLF gave Mr. Robert Vadra Rs. 60 crores interest-free to Robert Vadra through "Loans and Advances" items on Balance-Sheet. And as viewed from certain newspaper reports, Robert Vadra's companies gave supposed salaries to Robert Vadra through "Loans and Advances". The issue of Loans and Advances seems devious ones..

Often one can find huge sums of Loans and Advances on a company's Balance-Sheet and there's little or negligible information regarding that in the Schedules of the Balance-Sheet. It was always supposed that Loans and Advances can be mismanaged to one's benefits and the current case of Robert Vadra and DLF is pointing towards the same.

Its time the companies come forward in a more transparent way towards the same and the shareholders must take the habit of questioning them.

Why one should be wary of ESOPs?

2012-10-05T18:17:00.000+05:30

ESOPs or Employee Stock Options are a modern instruments of incentivising employees by corporations or companies. But as we move forward, ESOPs are becoming controversial regarding their usage both from the point of shareholders as well as employees.

Firstly, ESOPs straightaway dilute the equity of the company, thus hampering shareholders' interests. Nobody likes to see his stake being diluted.

Secondly, as a motivational instrument too, ESOPs are becoming controversial. If an employee is issued ESOPs, then the benefit that employee will have from ESOPs will be reliant on the overall performance of the company and that'll come from the collective performances of all the employees or co-workers. Why should an employee's special efforts be put ransom to the efforts of other employees? In a way, ESOPs are unfair to employees too. Rather, they should be compensated straightaway in form of salary raises, bonuses, perks or incentives. So, ESOPs fail this purpose too.

Thirdly, the expense on ESOPs are not accounted in the expense sheet, thus inflating profits and artificial stock price increases.

Thus, budding investors must be wary of ESOPs and must ask the management regarding its true utility.

Is it worth buying Cash?

2012-10-03T21:31:00.002+05:30

I was checking into Piramal Enterprises Limited. This company was in news after it sold to Abbott its formulation business for a huge sum of money. Kudos were levied upon Mr. Ajay Piramal for selling the business so high. He's now being regarded as India's biggest "value investor". He's considered a brilliant manager by almost all investors in India. His company Piramal Enterprises Limited has been considered as a "value" bet by a management guru from Gurgaon and he talks about adding Mr. Ajay Piramal as a manager to this bet. Sounds convincing...

So, I started looking Piramal Healthcare annual reports for March 2012. First thing, I couldn't understand why they're carrying the long-term debt of Rs. 6500 million when they can easily get rid of it. Also, I was surprised to see current short-term borrowings of around Rs. 10,140 million. Then, I started suspecting that whether they're not making any money from the business or current operations right now. I went straightaway to the P&L statement and found out that had it not been for "Other Income" they would have been making losses in the financial year ending March, 2012. I could see that even the previous year wasn't good for them. Operating cash flows have taken a battering. The quarter ending June, 2012 is also not providing any sort of comfort.

If you just look first hand at the Piramal Healthcare balance sheet for March 2012, you'll be enticed by looking at the long-term investments of Rs. 1,30,190 million which comes out to be Rs. 754 per share which is way up the current prices. If one is claiming to be a "value investor", concepts like "margin of safety", "buying cash" will start dancing before his eyes. But a value investor needs to focus on the operating cash flows too, which is the future of the business. Unless, the operating cash flows don't start flowing, the business with its huge cash reserves still might end up eating it. And as is evident from the market position towards Piramal Enterprises Limited stock in a bullish market, market doesn't pay for cash only and it means business.

I'm not suggesting here that its all downhill for Piramal Enterprises from here. I'm just using this opportunity as an instance to clarify "Value Investment". Piramal Enterprises has lots of subsidiaries & they have diversified very recently and also entered other healthcare spheres. Right now, they're also incurring around Rs. 2,000 - 2,500 million as R&D expenses which has a very poor track record in India. Only time'll tell whether they'll turn positive cash flows or not.

Bajaj Corp

2012-10-03T11:25:00.003+05:30

A newspaper article..

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Bajaj-Almond-Drops-volume-growth-to-sustain-at-18-20-levels-Analysts/articleshow/16641521.cms