CALIBRATED CONFIDENCE

Ahoy Ahoy

2025-09-25T12:32:00.001-04:00

It's been a hot 5 years since the last post. In that post I said I was on my way out, implying I'm leaving the finance industry. Alas, still here.

I'm going to be posting more in the future (because I can't post in the past yet). It's not like I used to per-se but I do plan to just jot down fast thoughts throughout the day. I have no intention of influencing you or you selling you a mother fucking thing.

My assumption is that I would be suited as just a single data input such as "this is what this guy sees/thinks from his view with his double digit IQ. Fair enough." Nothing more.

Stay wise out there guys. Curious who, if anyone, even sees this or gets an update. The world is nuts, all living things die (the people you dont like....they die. The people you do like...they die too.)

Until a future date, here's a cool paper I read on going 100% equity in retirement accounts. It's worth reading. Was out July 10, 2025 - BEYOND THE STATUS QUO: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF LIFECYCLE INVESTMENT ADVICE

This Industry Is Entirely Full of Sh!t

2020-08-27T10:07:00.004-04:00

The FED is full of shit. Everything they are getting away with happens because the population is ignorant.

You all deserve what happens from here on in.

An Open Letter To The Financial Media

2017-09-23T02:11:00.000-04:00

In what will likely be a vain attempt at reminding readers of the ridiculousness of television media, here is a posting from ZeroHedge.blogspot.com from 2009 that will leave you breathless (something the old Zero Hedge was known and loved for, especially when it came to posting on Flash Trading and derivatives). The posting has been reformatted to make consumption a bit easier.

Snapchat Is Shit

2017-02-05T02:56:00.000-05:00

You Should Never Put Your Money Into The US Equity Market

2017-01-01T11:55:00.001-05:00

$TWTR rebuffs hostile takeover offer from Jeff Skilling
— CalConfidence (@CalConfidence) December 29, 2016

VLCC Rates Continue To Climb Alongside Sell-Side Crude Estimates

2016-12-19T05:03:00.002-05:00

As noted previously, shipping rates continue to climb. Oddly, anchored ships remain about 8% of the fleet with four more being added to the bay I monitor, which helps to raise spot prices and thereby generating beneficial economics to shippers who choose to anchor these bad boys on the water for weeks if not months at a time because fools like CNBC enjoy looking at onshore inventories and asking "is it priced in?" which in this case, yes, it's pricing in but that is no surprise given the fraud and manipulation that takes place in the oil market. By the way, did you really believe OPEC and Non-OPEC would work out a fully fledged production freeze?

Insider Trading: Friday December 16

2016-12-16T05:27:00.000-05:00

Hey CNBC, BLOW IT OUT YOUR ASS!

2016-12-16T03:46:00.001-05:00

Following the FOMC minutes release on Oct 12 of the September 21-22 meeting we can see TSY Ex. TIPS net positions bombing out for securities between 6- & 7-years maturity. Now we see the sprint into the 2-year paper from Primary dealers. The short term focus is the highest demand.

When Ships Fly

2016-12-16T01:13:00.000-05:00

Tanker rates for VLCCs are flying higher as China imports of crude swell by 900Kbpd YTD to 7.6Mbpd. This year, the rate for VLCCs has climbed from a low of $14,400/Day to $52,600/Day.

Insider Trading: Wednesday December 14

2016-12-14T04:00:00.002-05:00

I'm going for a drive in the Dubai desert so the reading is thin this morning for me.

TRADER ALERT: User Fakes Being Bloomberg Reporter, Spreads False Info About Deutsche Bank

2016-12-14T00:37:00.000-05:00

You have to be smart and on your toes out here. Sadly, this novice attempted to punk me and now he's been reported to the SEC and further having his efforts documented here.

Source Confirms Samsung Management Knew Of Note 7 Fire Hazard In Early Stage Production

2016-12-13T05:50:00.000-05:00

The Samsung Galaxy Note 7, that phone that no one can take on airplanes because it explodes into a fireball, was allowed to go to production following warnings from Samsung's engineering department according to a source I spoke with.

Insider Trading: Tuesday December 13

2016-12-13T05:18:00.000-05:00

I'm overseas doing "research" so I missed posting yesterday. Here's the overnight recap.

Trivago IPO Should Be Illegal

2016-12-12T00:21:00.000-05:00

Baker-Hughes December 9th Rig Count Preview

2016-12-09T05:17:00.001-05:00

Once again we reach Friday and the amateur oil traders like to pretend to play with the big boys by talking about rig counts as if they are purposefully unaware of how to account for marginal utility improvements in a given rig over the past 50 years, but I'll digress.

Insider Trading: Friday December 9

2016-12-09T03:27:00.001-05:00

The Future Of Oil: F--K All

2016-12-08T06:17:00.001-05:00

The oil market is a mess. OPEC headlines have jolted the algorithms trading predictive order flow away from fundamentals and into the Twittersphere but rest assured because WaPo hasn't labelled OPEC headlines "fake news" yet then what we've seen must be real news (except it is not, though at times it is....get it?)

Insider Trading: December 8

2016-12-08T01:39:00.000-05:00

The Mozambique/LNG Sinkhole

2016-12-03T03:55:00.000-05:00

Who Flew Over The Erdogan Nest?

2016-07-17T12:23:00.003-04:00

Friday was unique. At the close of US markets news broke of a military coup in Turkey. As I do every Friday night, I embraced my inner hermit and avoided going out. Instead I did what any single, early 30 year-old on Wall Street would do...I opened my satellite tracking software and monitored Turkish air-traffic, ships, and Military vessel movements for about 3.5 hours. I know, you're jealous.

Talk Might Be Cheap But In Oil Markets It Is Invaluable

2016-04-16T18:20:00.002-04:00

A farce involves self-centered characters seeking to attain some type of endpoint outcome. The rumors and unfounded "chatter" driven headlines we've seen, specifically since January, have been the bullet point recap of some fantastic theater farce designed to manipulate future expectations during a period of high uncertainty and elevated market volatility.

Greek Preview On Sunday

2015-07-04T11:21:00.000-04:00

What's going to happen Sunday with the Greek extend-and-pretend-dum? Sara Eisen has been asking anyone who has time to spare to join CNBC for commentary in the past three weeks if 'a Grexit priced in'. In usual fashion, last weekend we were shown yet again that nothing is ever actually 'priced in' as one can not price uncertainty and randomness. I still respect and like her but this kind of vague commentary without accountability is hurtful to viewers. I'll hold out hopes that iCNBC, the subsidiary of Apple and main marketing arm, will learn this someday.

Life On The H2O Aboard A Shipper

2015-06-30T19:29:00.001-04:00

This short documentary taped by a new ship mate is a great view of life on the ocean for 6+ months. His camera skills and narrating are above par and overall the guy did a solid job, so good in fact I have to save here for my future self to share. 2 personal favorites - the part about bribing Egyptians to pass the Suez and the way the ship sets up defenses when traveling in Pirated waters

Oil Tankers Sit, Traders Have A Fit, Upstream Won't Commit, US Shale Producers 'Oh Shit!'

2015-05-02T23:15:00.001-04:00

Oil tankers are just sitting in the water, motionless. Floating storage vessels, like Knock Nevis, are just hanging out off the coast of Bahrain. The largest oil tanker, TI Europe, rests quietly off the coast of Malaysia.

How To Know If Stocks Are A Good Investment...

2015-04-17T16:56:00.000-04:00