Forex Charts

U.S. Non-farm pay rolls

2012-05-05T01:02:00.000-07:00

CLICK ON THE CHART FOR A BETTER VIEW

U.S. Non farm payroll came out at 115.000 Vs. 160.000 expected and unemployment showed a decrease at 8.1% Vs. 8.2% expected. A mixed picture here that perfectly reflects on market reaction. Take a look at the 15 minutes chart of USD/CAD for example (above): a big spike down followed by a jump up.

Same thing on the USD/JPY showed on the second chart: dollar depreciate first to run back up. A similar reaction was recorded on the U.S. equities futures with a 5 point drop followed by a sudden recover.

CLICK ON THE CHART FOR A BETTER VIEW

This is to remember that trading the news is extremely difficult specially when you get mixed data, markets not always have a clear idea of how interpret the readings and volatility spikes up hitting stops and limits levels pre-set on trading platforms around the world.

CLICK ON THE CHART FOR A BETTER VIEW

To notice the Oil depreciation that took place during the Asian and European sessions showed here on a Daily time frame; Oil stands now just above 100 $ and seems to want a test of the 200 Simple Moving Average (one of the most watched by traders) witch stands now at 96.39 $. Operators are anxious on the Wall Street open ; what the reaction will be to this weak economic data from the U.S.? This next November will take place presidential elections and a slow recovery certainly doesn't help Obama, many people still remember what happened last year (and the previous) when we had a second part of the year characterized by bad economic data and drops in stocks despite a beginning of it that was showing improvements and stocks appreciations.

AUD Vs. NZD - 05/03/2012

2012-05-05T00:54:00.000-07:00

CLICK ON THE CHART FOR A BETTER VIEW

The Aussie nicely broke a triangle congestion pattern against the Kiwi dollar and after a long spike up retraced half of the movement. NZD dollar was weakening due to relatively weak data from the labor market; unemployment rate came out at 6.7 % Vs 6.2 % expected, confirming what Central Bank and politicians affirmed last week. A strong Kiwi dollar is perceived as the major cause of problems for the southern pacific country witch heavily relies on soft commodities and dairies exports, few days ago trading balance also showed a strong contraction for March and for 2012 on the overall. RBNZ also stated that could intervene to weaken the currency if the situation will require it.

British Pound Rally against USD 05/01/2012

2012-05-05T00:48:00.000-07:00

British Pound rallied for 10 consecutive days breaking previous resistance levels before pausing at the 1.63 figure despite bad economic data from the U.K.like low GDP (-0.2) that brought Great Britain to a double dip recession. Unemployment is also raising at record levels, so what is pushing the GBP so high? Is it just a weak dollar ? Or international investors from around the world perhaps are dropping the European Bond and buying Guilts? Here is a chart of GBP-USD (above) and EUR-GBP showing a decline of 700 pips from the October 27th high

Click on charts for a better view

Aussie drops after disappointing CPI

2012-04-24T18:51:00.004-07:00

Australian Dollar drops after the release of a disappointing CPI number of 1.6% (2.2% expected), this will probably bring RBA to cut interest rate as suggested by the minutes of the last RBA meeting.
Will the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement hold as it did recently or shall we expect price to drop lower? Let's see if it makes it to the 76.4% which stands at 1.01 roughly.
Volatility ( measured using ATR set at 14 periods) is at the lowest level since January the 11th

European carnage

2012-04-24T18:48:00.003-07:00

Sell in May and go away? Apparently in 2012 we should say sell in April and avoid the peril.
European Stocks plunged today due to a mix of concerning news and events.
French presidential elections showed voters are more inclined to a less restrictive economic policy and (former?) President Sarkozy has clearly lost the first turn of the elections; as showed by polls in the last months Mr. Hollande is the favorite, a big surprise was the rise of the votes for Mrs. Le Pen.
Dutch Parliament faces problems approving laws to reinforce fiscal and spending austerity and Government resigned during the weekend.
German "Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing" falls way below expectations (46.3 - 49.0 expected), Italian Consumer Confidence and French Business Confidence also fell below expectations. Particularly worries about the Italian data which fell 7.2 points below expectations; the austerity measures implemented by Prime Minister Mario Monti are starting to affect the real economy and recession is now called out even by more optimistic economists even though they keep calling it a mere technical recession without realizing that the recession is more structural than technical.
Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI for April shows during the European night little signs of improvement as it record at 49.1 (a reading above 50.0 has to be considered positive showing expansion and a reading below 50.0 has to be considered negative showing recession) even though is above March reading of 48.3

Here are some more numbers about the European carnage:

DAX -3.36%
CAC 40   -2.83%
EU Stoxx 50   -2.87%
UK 100   -1.85%
  ITA 40   - 3.83%
Datas provided by Forexpros

NZD USD Trading in a tight range

2012-04-24T18:47:00.000-07:00

NZD/USD has been trading in this pretty tight range since the beginning of February, it seems like the 200 simple moving average is giving support. How long is it going to hold? Is this just a consolidation period that will bring the pair higher with a resume of the previous trend or shall we expect it to drop significantly lower? The Pivot points are calculated on a monthly base and clearly show the pair doesn't know where it want to go.   </div>