tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53928444652298110322025-12-04T07:03:57.617+11:00The RantThis site is a depository of useful valuation lessons, stories and data...really anything valuation related.Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-50040680831365692762016-04-14T01:20:00.002+10:002016-04-14T01:24:15.884+10:00Dick Smith: The Collapse of the 'Techxperts'
A detailed analysis of the Dick Smith collapse chronicling the acquisition by Anchorage from Woolworths in September 2012 through to its passing into voluntary administration in early 2016. This presentation addresses the role of Anchorage and senior management in this collapse. Questions and comments are welcome.
Link to Presentation (Dick Smith)
Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-72413383879630418562014-09-23T09:19:00.002+10:002014-09-23T09:21:00.104+10:00Real Estate Valation (NAV, Dividend Yields, DCF) Explained
Real Estate Valuation (Tools) - The following link will take you to a presentation that I recently gave on real estate valuation.
Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-49933159762009766272014-09-23T09:06:00.003+10:002014-09-23T09:07:26.312+10:00Property, Bubbles, and Reform
I've recently given some thought
to buying property. It's not that I enjoy giving up my Saturday’s to attend
open home after open home, or that I like the fleeting sales pitch of the man
or woman in a pin-striped suit. It’s more to do with the fact that at present
if you’re not part of the race to buy, then you're part of the battle to rent -
another less than impressive game.
Over Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-33794590445467244602013-07-27T12:27:00.004+10:002013-07-27T12:27:56.889+10:00Valuation Analysis - Alternative Media
Welcome to Financial Valuations. This video is taken from my opening class last semester and is intended to provide you with an introduction to valuation analysis. Together with the lecture notes and blog posts I hope that it will provide you with some useful insights.Happy learning!
Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-30768480156877262512013-05-23T18:12:00.000+10:002013-05-23T18:13:09.590+10:00How to Write an Equity Research Report - Part 1
There is a tremendous amount of information floating around about the different forms of valuation with vast amounts of detail about how to get it done. What seems to be lacking however, are instructions about how to present it all, once your analysis is complete. In this post, I will describe the basic requirements of a research report and then discuss aspects of the write up.
So, what Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-85909606598631265522013-04-16T11:04:00.000+10:002013-04-16T11:09:36.251+10:00Corporate Valuations: Where do we find ourselves?
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Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-10069899894903089102011-09-19T13:58:00.001+10:002011-09-21T14:00:37.153+10:00'Tis the season for Break-ups
With both local and global M&A business drying up in recent times - a function of the uncertainty about future economic conditions and management conservatism, investment banks have shifted their focus towards drumming up business from firm breakups. In recent weeks rumours have circulated about a number of possible breakups; including HP, and BP, coupled with the announced breakup ofAngelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-12514065804564965872011-09-05T20:13:00.001+10:002011-09-05T20:15:33.739+10:00Strategy and M&A
When I have to talk about strategy and how important it is to the
M&A process I am normally greeted with groans, expressions of
disinterest, rolling of the eyes and all sorts of reactions that scream
out "get on with it" and "hurry up and get to the good stuff!". I happen
to think that strategy - understanding it, formulating it, applying it,
is by far and away the most interesting Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-26436130956034554242011-08-17T14:29:00.003+10:002011-08-23T10:12:18.605+10:00M&A PerspectivesThere field of M&A asks a number of questions where often the answer is built on several different perspectives.One of the most important problems yet to be resolved, is what causes mergers to arise in waves? In other words, what dictates the timing of merger activity? Although there are many common elements across the various merger waves; sustained economic growth, low interest rate Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-60065138971287422762011-08-03T12:20:00.000+10:002011-08-03T12:20:57.403+10:00Mergers and Acquisitons (M&A)
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) are part of a dynamic process to allow firms to restructure their operating and financial activities and engage in corporate renewal. M&A's are commonly incorporated into public corporation business strategies to deliver value to shareholders because it provides a mode by which firms can quickly respond to rapid changes in their business environment. Where Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-90983588469638915102011-05-30T19:40:00.000+10:002013-05-23T18:23:52.980+10:00Relative Valuation - Part 2
When the subject of relative valuation analysis is broached, one of the first questions that is usually put forward is what ratio will give the most 'correct' estimate of value. Even the most novice investor has heard of at least half a dozen financial valuation ratios, and sophisticated investors will throw around hundreds at a time. The answer is not a simple one and Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-71170419974291486622011-05-09T17:38:00.001+10:002013-05-23T18:15:49.246+10:00Relative Valuation (Part 3)
Relative valuation analysis is the most commonly used technique for which we try and deduce value. From real estate practitioners, to market analysts, sporting pundits, and grocery shoppers, its almost second nature to infer value from a set of comparable items. For example, if United beat Chelsea (let's say 2-1) and Chelsea beat Tottenham, then in mathematic terms (transitive relation) United Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-9334579784469792402011-05-04T19:20:00.003+10:002011-05-04T23:12:56.702+10:00The Nuts and Bolts of how to calculate the Cost of Debt - A Review of Lecture 7 & 8 (Part 2)After my short hiatus, a few more articles to cover the last several lectures.
The Cost of Debt
The cost of debt is defined as the rate at which you can borrow in current market conditions. The cost of debt is made up of two components: the cost reflected in the time value of money; and more importantly the cost of risk. There are four general approaches to calculating the cost of debt. Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-62294878144635072402011-04-20T15:22:00.001+10:002013-05-23T18:23:19.960+10:00A Lesson on the Cost of Capital
Cost of Capital
Cost of Capital should reflect the time value of money and the risk incurred in earning cash flows. It is a measure that reflects how much we are charging for the capital that we allocate to particular activities.
The first aspect of this definition is fairly straightforward. We value a dollar more today than a dollar in the future so cash flows in the future should Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-91372670366721365282011-04-18T17:43:00.000+10:002011-04-18T17:43:12.332+10:00Beware of "funny" accounting practices – Leighton Holdings (ASX:LEI)
Although the process of deriving cash flows tends to be mechanical, we should not be sucked into thinking that mechanical equates to easy. What will separate an average valuation analysis from a good one will not be the modelling used, the type of risk analysis conducted, or the disaggregation of every financial account. What makes a good model is the attention to detail and the level of due Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-90049441386040446632011-04-12T11:44:00.002+10:002013-05-23T18:16:28.936+10:00Project Risk Analysis - From Sensitivity to Simulation Analysis
This lecture discussed the terminal value calculation, the use of an appropriate forecast horizon period, the use of project risk analysis to inform value estimates, and it even featured a guest appearance from Superman!
When deciding upon the length of the forecast period we should focus on a number of different factors to inform our analysis. They include (but should not be limited to):
Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-55030869562231925182011-04-04T14:52:00.000+10:002013-05-23T18:22:53.217+10:00FSA and Free Cash Flows
This lecture drew attention to the practice of FSA (Financial Statement Analysis). FSA is a useful tool for drawing inferences about a firm, its operations, financing, and investment policies. We use FSA to try and form opinions about a firm/industry based on some level of time series and cross-sectional analysis. The lecture focused on several ratios including average collection period, Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-18605718538656006412011-04-01T16:30:00.000+11:002011-04-01T16:30:52.174+11:00Looking For Consensus Economic Forecasts?The AFR has dedicated a section to providing consensus economic forecasts from a range of financial institutions including JP, RBS, Citi, UBS, Nomura etc... Forecasted items include growth, inflation, $AU, equity market performance. This is obviously useful for any valuation analysis.
An example can be viewed here
Click here to proceed to the link.
Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-61753973101221928112011-03-28T16:44:00.000+11:002011-03-28T16:44:48.965+11:00Cross-Listing: Fortescue to Cross-List?Today's (28/03) AFR reports the possibility of Fortescue Metals cross-listing its securities on the HKSE (Hong Kong Stock Exchange). Cross-listing is the process (loosely) that allows a company to be traded on more than one exchange. There can be different levels of cross-listing and the term itself does not mean that a company will be raising equity from listing in a foreign market. In fact, as Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-39305769076365688632011-03-25T09:20:00.000+11:002013-05-23T18:17:03.300+10:00Ratio Analysis - A Lesson in FSA
Macro Projections and Top-Down Analysis
Fundamental valuation analysis is typically conducted via a top-down approach. What this means is that in order to ascertain meaningful projections of a firm's ability to make sales, its ability to utilise resources, and service its debt, we need to understand the environment in which it operates. Top-down analysis begins with a survey of the Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-47173755093352382292011-03-17T16:18:00.002+11:002013-05-23T18:17:45.497+10:00A review and reminder of the fragility of financial markets (A Valuation Perspective)
A chilling reminder of the fragility of financial markets was served over the last few days following the earthquake hitting Japan and subsequent exposure of their nuclear facilities. Markets have receded and continue to do so (the Nikkei 225 is off ~20% over the last five days), driven by the magnitude of the disaster, the uncertainty of the conditions at hand, and by the instability caused Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-33865475972066965592011-03-14T14:09:00.002+11:002011-03-14T14:13:33.061+11:00Where is all the data?Unfortunately financial data is not easy to come by. When looking for data (needed for a valuation exercise) we often find ourselves trying to access sites that get us clicking onto links that take us nowhere. This post is therefore dedicated to directing you to free (or otherwise accessible data locations if you are a university student) data sources. This is by no means a Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-55519766448863382392011-03-10T17:02:00.003+11:002013-05-23T18:21:45.561+10:00Cash Flows and the Risk Premium
What do you call an economist who doesn't make assumptions? An accountant.
Lecture 2 is divided in two parts. Part 1 seeks to give you some insight into the kind of issues that you will face when undertaking a valuation exercise. Part 2 provides you with a somewhat detailed analysis of accounting statements and their use in financial valuation analysis.
Beginning with valuation issues,Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-70646740897670755582011-03-08T09:44:00.000+11:002011-03-08T09:44:57.071+11:00Don't ask the barber whether you need a haircut!
Though the modern trading environment continues to evolve, populated by high-frequency traders, goliath like hedge funds and integrated financial platforms, traditional investment philosophies remain as relevant as ever. One of the most famous proponents of fundamental business analysis over the last forty years has been none other than Warren Buffett, who according to the most recent letter to Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392844465229811032.post-11850844443799212212011-03-02T10:27:00.001+11:002013-05-23T18:22:09.569+10:00Welcome to Valuations: The Different Forms
Lecture 1 has sought to provide a broad introduction to valuations. Valuation analysis is an exercise in discovering what "true value" is. True value is something that is generally unobservable but in attempting to capture it (via some worked analysis) we give ourselves a chance to make relatively informed investment (or otherwise) decisions. Efficient resource allocation can only occur when Angelo Asprishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08886810301657601851noreply@blogger.com0