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USD Update 25/1/2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 25 Nov 2014 11:54:00 +0000

Dollar index steady after OECD report

The dollar was steady near last week’s more than four year highs against a basket of other major currencies on Tuesday after the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said the global economy will gradually improve over the next two years.

Dollar index little changed after OECD report

USD/JPY was down 0.12% to 118.12, off the lows of 117.68 struck earlier in the session.

The yen found some support after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda voiced concerns over the economic impact of the weaker yen earlier Tuesday. The yen received an additional boost after the minutes of the BoJ’s October meeting showed that some officials opposed plans to expand its stimulus program.

OECD cut its forecast for economic growth in Japan this year and next after data last week showed that the country unexpectedly fell into a recession in the third quarter.

However, it noted that the weaker yen would help the recovery by boosting exports.

The think-tank said it still expects the global economy to grow by 3.3% this year and 3.7% in 2015.

The euro was little changed against the dollar, with EUR/USD at 1.2437, off Monday’s highs of 1.2443.

Data on Tuesday confirmed that Germany narrowly avoided a recession in the third quarter, posting economic growth of 0.1%. Consumer spending rose by 0.7%, while exports were 1.9% higher.

OECD warned that the euro area is at risk of deflation if growth stagnates or if inflation expectations continue to deteriorate and urged the European Central Bank to embark on quantitative easing measures.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD slid 0.19% to 1.5677, while USD/CHF was steady at 0.9667.

Gold Update 25/11/2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 25 Nov 2014 07:19:00 +0000

Gold prices held steady to higher in Asia on Tuesday with investors looking for any cue on physical demand ahead of end-year holidays.

Gold prices steady

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at $1,198.20 a troy ounce, up 0.08%.

Overnight, gold prices held steady on Monday, supported by softer dollar and a Chinese decision to trim interest rates, though uncertainty ahead of Tuesday's economic growth and consumer confidence reports capped gains.

Gold often serves as a hedge to sliding currencies, the product of loose monetary policy.

A softer dollar, the product of upbeat European data, also supported prices.

The single currency found support and sent the dollar falling after a report showed that German business sentiment improved this month after six successive months of declines, indicating that the downturn the euro area’s largest economy may be ending.

Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to 104.7 from 103.2 in October, confounding forecasts for a decline to 103.0.

The current conditions index rose to 110.0 from 108.4 last month and the expectations index improved to 99.7 from 98.3, both figures topping market forecasts.

The data helped offset expectations that the European Central Bank may loosen policy further to stimulate the economy, possibly rolling out purchases of government bonds.

Still, gold prices dipped as the dollar regained some ground as investors avoided the yellow metal ahead of the release of revised data on U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product and a report on consumer confidence.

Usd/cad update 24/11/2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 24 Nov 2014 15:28:00 +0000

Forex - USD/CAD edges higher in early trade

The U.S. dollar edged higher against its Canadian counterpart on Monday, pulling away from three-week lows as demand for the greenback continued to be broadly supported.
USD/CAD hit 1.1258 during early U.S. trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.1251, adding 0.16%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.1189, Friday's low and resistance at 1.1327, Friday's high.
Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting indicated last week that officials believe the economic recovery is strong enough to withstand external threats to growth, but offered little additional clarity about when rates could start to rise.
The Fed wound up its asset purchasing stimulus program last month and is expected to start raising rates around September 2015.
The greenback dropped to a three-week trough against the Canadian dollar on Friday, after data showed that Canadian consumer price inflation rose 0.1% last month, compared to expectations for a 0.3% fall, after a 0.1% uptick in September.
Core consumer prices in Canada, which exclude the eight most volatile items, rose 0.3% in October, more than the expected 0.2% gain, after a 0.2% increase the previous month.
The loonie was lower against the euro, with EUR/CAD rising 0.36% to 1.3969.
The single currency found support after a report showed that Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to 104.7, up from 103.2 in October. Economists had forecast a decline to 103.0.
The data eased concerns over the outlook for growth in the euro zone’s largest economy.

Update EUR/USD_24/1/2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 24 Nov 2014 14:09:00 +0000

EUR/USD looks to consolidate above 1.2400

It seems the pair left behind the Draghi-induced pullback on Friday, now looking to pick up pace beyond 1.2400 the figure albeit at a snail pace. Market participants remained indifferent after the ZEW indicator surpassed estimates for the present month in Germany, and will now focus on the US releases from the Services and Composite PMIs tracked by Markit due later. “Being turned back from the trend likely signals the resumption of the downtrend, even though market positioning (in the futures market) and sentiment seem nearly as extreme as ever. A break of the $1.2360 area would target $1.2230, on the way to $1.20 in the coming weeks”, suggested analysts at BBH.

EUR/USD key levels

At the moment the pair is advancing 0.16% at 1.2412 and a breakout of 1.2477 (10-d MA) would aim for 1.2511 (21-d MA) and then 1.2569 (high Nov.21). On the flip side, the initial support aligns at 1.2358 (2014 low Nov.7) followed by 1.2342 (low Aug.21 2012) and then 1.2300 (psychological handle).

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EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 20th Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 20 Jan 2014 03:10:00 +0000

The EUR/USD pair fell hard during the session on Friday, smashing through the 1.3550 support area. However, we think this area has support all the way down to the major handle in 1.35, so we are not ready to start selling yet. However, a close below the 1.35 level is more than enough of a reason for us to start selling the Euro. We do not have a scenario to start buying quite yet, simply because we don’t have the candlestick for it. However, we are open to either possibility as his pair tends to chop around quite a bit.

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AUD/USD Forecast, Technical Analysis 16th Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 07:34:00 +0000

The AUD/USD pair fell during the session on Wednesday, testing the 0.89 level for support. That area of course offered support, and therefore we bounce slightly from it. However, we believe that the market will continue to meander in this general vicinity, and therefore give a real possible selling opportunity if we can get down below the 0.88 handle. Below there, the Australian dollar falls apart. In the meantime though, we believe that this market will simply go sideways with more of a downward bias than anything at the moment. We will continue to sell short-term rallies.

GBP/USD Forecast Technical Analysis 16th Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 07:33:00 +0000

The GBP/USD pair fell during the session on Wednesday, going all the way down to the 1.6350 area. However, that area has offered support yet again, and as a result it looks like we’re simply going to continue the consolidation that we’ve seen for a while now. All things being equal, we believe that this market will continue to grind sideways overall, and that buyers will step in to support the market, as it should eventually break out to the upside. With that being said, we believe that short-term buying opportunities will present themselves.

EUR/USD Forecast, Technical Analysis 16th Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 07:32:00 +0000

The EUR/USD pair fell during the session on Wednesday, testing the 1.36 level. The area is the beginning of significant support all the way down to the 1.3550 handle, so therefore we need to close below that level on a daily candle in order for us to start selling the Euro at this point in time. Because of that, we feel that a supportive candle in this general vicinity probably will be a decent buying opportunity, as we would simply be respecting an area that had been so supportive previously over the last couple of weeks.

Silver Forecast, Technical Analysis 16th Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 07:31:00 +0000

The silver markets fell during the session on Wednesday, but found enough support at the $20 level in order to bounce and form a hammer. It is because of the fact that we have formed two hammers and one shooting star in the last three sessions that we believe this market is essentially trying to wind itself up in order to break out. A sideways grind is probably what we’re going to see of the next couple of sessions, but ultimately if we can break the top of the shooting star from the Tuesday session, we believe that this market will head to the $21 level, and then possibly as high as $23.

Silver Forecast January 16, 2014, Technical Analysis

Crude Oil Forecast, Technical Analysis 16th Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 07:29:00 +0000

The light sweet crude markets had a very strong day during the session on Wednesday as we managed to push the market back above the $94 level. The gain of 1.85% was impressive, however we still see a significant amount of noise between here and the $96 level. Because of that, we’re still not convinced and are not ready to start buying this market quite yet. Quite frankly, we would not be surprised at all to see this market for some type of resistant candle above, and because of that believe that the sellers could take control yet again given enough time.

The market certainly is bearish, but this is going to come down to a lot of headline noise as there is talk of the Libyans adding more oil to the market, as well as the possibility of Iranians doing the same as the nuclear deal continues. If those talks produce some type of favorable result for the Iranians, that will only increase supply. Nonetheless, until we get above the $96 handle, we have to believe that the most likely direction will be down going forward.

Crude Oil Forecast January 16, 2014, Technical Analysis

Brent

The Brent markets as you can see had a positive session as well, testing the $107.50 level. We did pullback from there, and at the end of the day although the session looked rather positive, it also looks like a continuation of the consolidation area that we have been in. Granted, the consolidation does have a little bit of a negative “slant” to it, so there is the possibility that we just simply continue to grind lower on short time frames. We believe that this market will continue to struggle overall, and as a result think that it’s probably going to be best traded to the short side on those aforementioned short-term charts. Day traders will continue to like this market, but as far as a longer-term trade, you’re probably going to be hard-pressed to find one that you will be comfortable with because of the large amount of both supportive and resistive areas in this general vicinity.

Gold Analysis 16th Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 07:27:00 +0000

The gold markets fell slightly during the session on Wednesday, dipping below the $1240 level. However, towards the end of the day we saw a little bit of a bounce, and that of course formed the hammer that you’re looking at. This market looks like its well supported below, so on a break of the top of that hammer we believe that the market will attempt to break out above the $1260 level, and then possibly go higher. Above that level, things get interesting as the buyers will certainly have started to take control market.

Gold Prices January 16, 2014, Technical Analysis

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USD/CAD

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 16:33:00 +0000

The Canadian dollar has steadied on Wednesday after losses on the previous day, as USD/CAD trades in the mid-1.09 range in Wednesday's North American session. The currency has lost close to 300 points in January, and is trading at its lowest level against the US dollar since October 2009. Earlier in the day, the pair pushed close to the 1.10 level. Will the US dollar break above this key level? In economic news, US PPI rebounded in December with a gain of 0.4%, just shy of the estimate. The Empire State Manufacturing Index looked very sharp jumping to a twenty-month high of 12.5 points. There are no releases out of Canada on Wednesday.

US inflation numbers were solid on Wednesday. PPI, a key release, rebounded from a decline in November and posted a gain of 0.4%, just short of the estimate of 0.5%. Core PPI improved to 0.3%, up from 0.1% a month earlier. The estimate stood at 0.1%. The US dollar responded positively to the figures and is broadly higher against the major currencies, although the Canadian dollar has managed to hold its own in Wednesday trading.

The Bank of Canada released its quarterly Business Outlook Survey earlier this week, and the report showed that Canadian businesses were more optimistic in Q4 about investment and hiring compared to Q3. At the same time, companies dealing with the domestic market were less confident than those that rely on the global economy, which has shown improvement. Meanwhile, Canadian employment numbers looked awful last week, as Employment Change tumbled to -45.9 thousand, erasing a strong gain of 21.6 thousand a month earlier. This was nowhere near the estimate of 14.4 thousand. The unemployment rate, which had hovered at 6.9% for three straight readings, jumped to 7.2%. The dismal figures came on the heels of weak numbers from Building Permits and the Ivey PMI. If Canada continues to produce weak numbers, the loonie could soon find itself on the other side of the key 1.10 line.

Last week's disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report may have created some concern in the markets, but is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's path of tapering QE, which it started just this month. In December, outgoing Fed chair Bernard Bernanke strong hinted that the Fed planned to wind up QE by the end of 2014, reducing the asset-purchase program by increments of $10 billion at each Fed policy meeting over the course of the year. The Fed next meets for a policy meeting on January 28, and the question is will the Fed reduce QE by another $10 billion, down to $65 billion each month. Most analysts feel that one bad employment report will not affect the taper schedule and we will see a reduction in QE at the next policy meeting.

Gold Analysis 15th Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 16:09:00 +0000

Gold prices tumbled yesterday, but the decline does not seem to be in line with what most news have reported. If you go to any major financial news provider today, you would see articles that talk about how the stronger than expected US Advance Retail Sales may have increased the probability of the 2nd QE taper in the upcoming FOMC meeting in 2 weeks time. This drove Gold prices lower as the need for inflation protection becomes lower.

This assertion seems to make sense prima facie, but price action does not agree with it. Firstly, the timing is - Advance Retail Sales was released at 8.30am EST (9.30pm SGT), but the sharp decline in Gold happened just before New York Noon. Furthermore, prices of Gold actually traded higher when the numbers were released, pushing steadily up until the sell-off happened. In order for the assertion to fly, prices should have at least traded marginally lower during early US session, instead of higher. Hence, it is clear that Gold prices isn't really influenced by QE tapering, something that has been established previously.

Unfortunately, the alternative argument used on Monday's price action - e.g. risk off appetite sending Gold prices higher - doesn't work either. US stocks actually rallied during early market hours, which would have drove Gold prices lower if the alternative reasoning is correct. That being said, if we ignore the inexplicable early US session rally, risk appetite remains a good explanation for price action yesterday and today. Looking at S&P 500 futures, the decline of Gold from 1,255 high yesterday coincide with the rebounding of the low in S&P 500 after the surprise sell-off in S&P 500 which was not prompted by any news releases. Similarly, the continuation of bearish sell-off right now coincide with the overall bullish "risk-on" sentiment that has permeated the Asian session which has spilled over to European bourses as well.

Hourly Chart

XAU/USD Hourly

Certainly this may leave a bad taste to some purist that demands to know the reason for every ebb and flow of price movement. In this regard, the only plausible explanation for the rally would be financial institutions buying up Gold during the time period. Why are they doing this? The reason isn't entirely clear right now but we've definitely spotted large institutions buying up Gold without specific reasons in the past. The only issue is that we do not have any evidence that this is indeed happening - not now at least. Luckily for us, COT numbers will be able to reflect this as the data is taken every Tuesday. If we see Friday's COT numbers reflecting increasing speculative long positions, the hypothesis will stand.

From a technical perspective, it is no surprise that the sharpest of current bearish momentum came after 1,255 resistance was tested and held, while current leg of bearish momentum similarly came after 1,245 soft support turned resistance held. Right now, prices appears to be pulling back slightly with Stochastic readings pointing slightly higher within the Oversold region. Hence, a test of 1,242 soft support turned resistance is possible, and price may still push up to 1,245 in the near term should "risk on" abates. Similarly, if 1,242 holds, price may continue its decline to 1,237 and subsequently 1,232 soft support.

Daily Chart

XAU/USD Daily

Daily Chart is much more bearish, as prices have successfully rebounded off Channel Top and has traded back into the 1,215 - 1,250 consolidation range. Stochastic readings agree with this bearish outlook with Stoch curve forming a top. If price manages to breach 1,215 in conjunction with Stoch curve pushing below the "support" of 75.0, bearish acceleration may take place which can bring us to Channel Bottom quickly with 1,185 - 1,215 providing interim support

Gold and Euro/Usd down trend

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 15:26:00 +0000

Gold and Euro/Usd down trend
Gold Target 1235-1220
Euro/Usd Target 1.3580-1.3540
Do not try to buy

Gold update 15 Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 14:05:00 +0000

Gold take profit 2 hit

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Major Pairs Daily Analysis 15 Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 12:51:00 +0000

EUR/USD is still forming an ascending structure. We think, today price may consolidate for a while near level of 1.3687, break this consolidation channel upwards, and then continue moving upwards to reach level of 1.3800. Later, in our opinion, the pair may form a descending wave towards the 1.3700 target.

EUR/USD

GBP/USDPound is still forming consolidation channel close to level of 1.6515. We think, today price may break this channel upwards and continue growing up to reach level of 1.6655. Later, in our opinion, pair may start new descending structure to return to current consolidation.

USD/CHFAfter falling down last Friday, Franc continues forming consolidation channel; this movement may be considered as continuation of down trend. Next target is at 0.8900.

USD/JPYYen is still forming the third descending wave, which may be considered as correction. We think, today price may reach level of 102.70 and then test level of 104.00 from below. Later, in our opinion, pair may complete the first wave of this correction by forming one more descending structure and reaching level of 102.30.

AUD/USDAustralian Dollar reached target of its correction. We think, today price may continue forming descending structure inside down trend. Main target of this wave is at 0.8400.

GOLDGold is still moving upwards. We think, today price may form consolidation channel near level of 1248. Break it upwards, and then continue growing up to reach target at 1277. Later, in our opinion, instrument may form new descending structure to return to level of 1250.

Gold and EuroUsd down trend

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 14 Jan 2014 21:16:00 +0000

Gold and Euro/Usd down trend
Gold Target 1235-1220
Euro/Usd Target 1.3580-1.3540
Do not try to buy

Top Upcoming News of This week Specially Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 14 Jan 2014 17:59:00 +0000

WedJan 15	7:30pm	USD	PPI m/m	0.5%	-0.1%
	8:15pm	GBP	BOE Gov Carney Speaks
ThuJan 16	6:30am	AUD	Employment Change	10.3K	21.0K
		AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.8%	5.8%
	7:30pm	USD	Core CPI m/m	0.1%	0.2%
		USD	Unemployment Claims	327K	330K
	9:00pm	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	8.8	7.0
	10:10pm	USD	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
	11:00pm	CHF	SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
FriJan 17	Tentative	EUR	German Constitutional Court Ruling
	3:30pm	GBP	Retail Sales m/m	0.5%	0.3%
	7:30pm	USD	Building Permits	1.01M	1.01M
	8:55pm	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	83.4	82.5

Trading recommendations and outlooks 13 Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 13 Jan 2014 07:43:00 +0000

The weekly technical levels of the EUR/USD pair on January 13, 2014. Besides, the market was trapped between the level of 1.3600 and the 1.3725 level, consequently it expects:
First outlook: Buy (buy limit) above 1.3630 with the first target of 1.3690, it might resume to 1.3730.
Second outlook: Swing trade (sell limit) at 1.3750 in order to sell with a target of 1.3636 in order to test the weekly pivot point at the 1.3634 level.
Third outlook: Below 0.7910 (sell stop) look for further downside with 0.36 and 1.3573 targets.

Major Pairs Analysis 13 Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 13 Jan 2014 07:30:00 +0000

GOLD

STRATEGY

Resistance Levels:

Buy on Dips

$ 1251 - $ 1260 - $ 1270

Buy above $1234, using a stop loss of $1220, targeting $1260-70.

Support Levels:

Alternatively, failure to sustain above $1250 might call for $1244-34-20.

$ 1234 - $ 1221 - $ 1207

SILVER

STRATEGY

Resistance Levels:

Buy on Dips

$ 20.20 - $20.60 - $ 21.20

Buy above $19.50, using a stop loss of $18.80, targeting $20.20-20.60-21.20.

Support Levels:

Alternatively, failure to break above $20.20 might call for $19.80-19.50-19.20.

$ 19.50 - $ 19.00 - $ 18.70

CRUDE OIL

STRATEGY

Resistance Levels:

Neutral

$ 93.20 - $ 94.30 - $ 95.20

Buy above $91.10, using a stop loss of $89.10, targeting $93.20-94.20-95.15.

Support Levels:

Sell below $93.20, using a stop loss of $94.30, targeting $92.10-91.10.

$ 92.10 - $ 91.10 - $ 89.10

AUD / USD

STRATEGY

Resistance Levels:

Neutral

$ 0.9040 - $ 0.9140 - $ 0.9200

Buy above $0.8970, using a stop loss of $0.8870, targeting $0.9040-0.9140.

Support Levels:

Sell below $0.9140, using a stop loss of $0.9200, targeting $0.9000-0.8970-0.8925.

$ 0.8970 - $ 0.8920 - $ 0.8870

GBP / USD

STRATEGY

Resistance Levels:

Buy on Dips

$ 1.6560 - $ 1.6610 - $ 1.6740

Buy above $1.6410, using a stop loss of $1.6310, targeting $1.6560-1.6610.

Support Levels:

Alternatively, failure to break above $1.6560 might call for $1.6470-1.6410-1.6310.

$ 1.6470 - $ 1.6410 - $ 1.6310

EUR / USD

STRATEGY

Resistance Levels:

Neutral

$ 1.3710 - $ 1.3750 - $ 1.3830

Buy above $1.3610, using a stop loss of $1.3550, targeting $1.3710-1.3750.

Support Levels:

Sell below $1.3750, using a stop loss of $1.3830, targeting $1.3610-1.3550-1.3470.

$ 1.3650 - $ 1.3610 - $ 1.3550

USD / JPY

STRATEGY

Resistance Levels:

Sell on Strength

103.65 – 104.20 - 104.90

Sell below 104.20, using a stop loss of 104.90, targeting 103.30-102.60.

Support Levels:

Alternatively, break above 104.20 might call for 104.90-105.40.

103.30 – 102.60 – 102.20

Dow Jones 30

STRATEGY

Resistance Levels:

Neutral

16387 - 16500 - 16550

Buy above 16250, using a stop loss of 16150, targeting 16380-500.

Support Levels:

Alternatively, break below 16250 might call for 16150-50.

16248 - 16162 - 16047

S&P 500

STRATEGY

Resistance Levels:

Neutral

1840.89 – 1853.35 – 1868.38

Buy above 1818, using a stop loss of 1798, targeting 1840-53.

Support Levels:

Alternatively, failure to break above 1840 might call for 1818-1811-1798.

1818.42 - 1811.69 - 1798.27

Nasdaq 100

STRATEGY

Resistance Levels:

Neutral

3584.83 – 3600.11 – 3621.98

Buy above 3525, using a stop loss of 3500, targeting 3584-3600-3620.

Support Levels:

Alternatively, failure to break above 3580 might call for 3540-3525-3500.

3544.52 - 3525.88 - 3500.22

Gold Signal 13 Jan 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 13 Jan 2014 05:05:00 +0000

Sell Gold @ 1250
Take profit 1240, 1235, 1228
Stop Loss 1275