Forex Trading Guide

6 Steps To A Rule-Based Forex Trading

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Sun, 09 Jan 2011 16:49:00 +0000

A trading system is more than just having a rule or set of rules for when to enter and when to exit a trade. It is a comprehensive strategy that takes into account six very important factors, not the least of which is your own personality. In this article, we will cover the general approach to creating a rule-based trading system.

Step 1: Examine Your Mindset
(A) Know who you are: When trading the markets, your first priority is to take a look at yourself and note your own personality traits. Examine your strengths and your weaknesses, then ask yourself how you might react if you perceive an opportunity or how you might react if your position is threatened. This is also known as a personal SWOT analysis. But do not lie to yourself. If you are not sure how you would act, ask the opinion of someone who knows you well.

(B) Match your personality to your trading: Be sure that you are comfortable with the type of trading conditions you will experience in different time frames. For example, if you have determined that you are not the kind of person who likes to go to sleep with open positions in a market that is trading while you sleep, perhaps you should consider day trading so that you can close out your positions before you go home. However, you must then be the kind of person who likes the adrenalin rush of constantly watching the computer throughout the day. Do you enjoy being computer-bound? Are you an addictive or compulsive person? Will you drive yourself crazy watching your positions and become afraid to go to the bathroom in case you miss a tick? If you are not sure, go back and re-audit your personality to be certain. Unless your trading style matches your personality, you will not enjoy what you are doing and you will quickly lose your passion for trading.

(D) Be objective: Do not become emotionally involved in your trade. It does not matter whether you are wrong or right. What matters, as George Soros says, is that “you make more money when you are right than what you lose when you are wrong.” Trading is not about ego, although for most of us it can be disconcerting when we plan a trade, apply our entire logical prowess and then find out that the market does not agree. It is a matter of training yourself to accept that not every trade can be a winning trade, and that you must accept small losses gracefully and move on to the next trade.

(E) Be disciplined: This means that you have to know when to buy and sell. Base your decisions on your pre-planned strategy and stick to it. Sometimes you will cut out of a position only to find that it turns around and would have been profitable had you held on to it. But this is the basis of a very bad habit. Don’t ignore your stop losses - you can always get back into a position. You will find it more reassuring to cut out and accept a small loss than to start wishing that your large loss will be recouped when the market rebounds. This would more resemble trading your ego than trading the market.

(F) Be patient: When it comes to trading, patience truly is a virtue. Learn to sit on your hands until the market gets to the point where you have drawn your line in the sand. If it does not get to your entry point, what have you lost? There is always going to be an opportunity to make gains another day.

(G) Have realistic expectations: This means that you won’t lose your focus on reality and miraculously expect to turn $1,000 into $1 million 10 trades. What is a realistic expectation? Consider what some of the best fund managers in the world are capable of achieving - perhaps anywhere from 20-50% per annum. Most of them achieve much less than that and are well-paid to do so. Go into trading expecting a realistic rate of return on a consistent basis; if you manage to achieve a growth rate of 20% or better every year, you will be able to outperform many of the professional fund managers.

Step 2: Identify Your Mission and Set Your Goals
(A) With anything in life, if you don’t know where you are going, any road will take you there. In terms of investing, this means you must sit down with your calculator and determine what kind of returns you need to reach your financial goals.

(B) Next, you must start to understand how much you need to earn in a trade and how often you will have to trade to achieve your goals. Don’t forget to factor in losing trades. This can bring you to the realization that your trading methodology may be in conflict with your goals. Therefore, it is critical to align your methodology with your goals. If you are trading in standard 100,000 lots, your average value of a pip is around $10. So how many pips can you expect to earn per trade? Take your last 20 trades and add up the winners and losers and then determine your profits. Use this to forecast the returns on your current methodology. Once you know this information, you can figure out if you can achieve your goals and whether or not you are being realistic.

Step 3: Ensure You Have Enough Money
(A) Cash is the fuel needed to start trading and without enough cash, your trading will be hampered by a lack of liquidity. But more important, cash is a cushion against losing trades. Without a cushion, you will not be able to withstand a temporary drawdown or be able to give your position enough breathing space while the market moves back and forth with new trends.

(B) Cash cannot come from sources that you need for other important events in your life, such as your savings plan for your children’s college education. Cash in trading accounts is “risk” money. Also known as risk capital, this money is an amount that you can afford to lose without affecting your lifestyle. Consider trading money as you would vacation savings. You know that when the vacation is over the money will be spent and you are OK with that. Trading carries a high degree of risk. Treating your trading capital as vacation money does not mean that you are not serious about protecting your capital, rather it means freeing yourself psychologically from the fear of losing so that you can actually make the trades that will be necessary to grow your capital. Again, perform a personal SWOT analysis to be sure the necessary trading positions aren’t contrasting with your personality profile.

Step 4: Select a Market That Trades Harmoniously
(A) Pick a currency pair and test it over different time frames. Start with the weekly charts, then proceed to daily, four-hour, two-hour, one-hour, 30-minute, 10-minute and five-minute charts. Try to determine whether the market turns at strategic points most of the time, such as at Fibonacci levels, trendlines or moving averages. This will give you a feeling of how the currency trades in the different time frames.

(B) Set up support and resistance levels in different time frames to see if any of these levels cluster together. For example, the price at 127 Fibonacci extension on the weekly time frame may also be the price at a 1.618 extension off of a daily time frame. Such a cluster would add conviction to the support or resistance at that price point.

Repeat this exercise with different currencies until you find the currency pair that you feel is the most predictable for your methodology.

(C) Remember, passion is key to trading. The repeated testing of your set-ups requires that you love what you are doing. With enough passion you will learn to accurately gauge the market.

(D) Once you have a currency pair that you feel comfortable with, start reading the news and the comments regarding the particular pair you have selected. Try to determine if the fundamentals are supporting what you believe the chart is telling you. For example, if gold is going up, that would probably be good for the Australian dollar, since gold is a commodity that is generally positively correlated to the Australian dollar. If you think gold is going to go down, then wait for the appropriate time on the chart to short the Aussie. Look for a line of resistance to be the appropriate line in the sand to get timing confirmation before you make the trade.

Step 5: Test Your Methodology for Positive Results
(A) This step is probably what most traders really think of as the most important part of trading: A system that enters and exits trades that are only profitable. No losses - ever. Such a system, if there were one, would make a trader rich beyond his wildest dreams. But the truth is, there is no such system. There are good methodologies and better ones and even very average methods that can all be used to make money. The performance of a trading system is more about the trader than it is about the system. A good driver can get to his destination in virtually any vehicle, but an untrained driver will probably not make it, no matter how great fast the car is.

(B) Having said the above, it is necessary to pick a methodology and implement it many times in different time frames and markets to measure its success rate. Often a system is a successful predictor of the market direction only 55-60% of the time, but with proper risk management, the trader can still make a lot of money employing such a system.

(C) Personally, I like to use a system that has the highest reward to risk, which means that I tend to look for turning points at support and resistance levels because these are the points where it is easiest to identify and quantify the risk. Support is not always strong enough to stop a falling market, nor is resistance always strong enough to turn back an advance in prices. However, a system can be built around the concept of support and resistance to give a trader the edge required to be profitable.

(D) Once you have designed your system, it is important to measure its expectancy or reliability in various conditions and time frames. If it has a positive expectancy (it produces more profitable trades than losing trades) it can be used as a means to time entry and exit in the markets.

Step 6: Measure Your Risk-to-Reward Ratios and Set Your Limits
(A) The first line in the sand to draw is where you would exit your position if the market goes against you. This is where you will place your stop loss.

(B) Calculate the number of pips your stop is away from your entry point. If the stop is 20 pips away from the entry point and you are trading a standard lot, then each pip is worth approximately $10 (if the U.S. dollar is your quote currency). Use a pip calculator if you are trading in cross currencies to make it easy to get the value of a pip.

(C) Calculate the percentage your stop loss would be as a percentage of your trading capital. For example, if you have $1,000 in your trading account, 2% would be $20. Be sure your stop loss is not more than $20 away from your entry point. If 20 pips are equal to $200, then you are too leveraged for your available trading capital. To overcome this, you must reduce your trading size from a standard lot to a mini-lot. One pip in a mini-lot is equal to approximately $1. Therefore, to maintain your 2% risk-to-capital, the maximum loss should be $20, which requires that you trade only one mini-lot.

(D) Now draw a line on your chart where you would want to take profit. Be sure this is at least 40 pips away from your entry point. This will give you a 2:1 profit-to-loss ratio. Since you cannot know for sure if the market will reach this point, be sure to slide your stop to breakeven as soon as the market moves beyond your entry point. At worst, you will scratch your trade and your full capital will be intact.

(E) If you get knocked out on your first attempt, don’t despair. Often it is your second entry that will be correct. It is true that “the second mouse gets the cheese.” Often the market will bounce off your support if you are buying, or retreat from your resistance if you are selling, and you will enter the trade to test that level to see if the market will trade back to your support or resistance. You can then catch profits the second time around.

Summary
By fusing psychology, fundamentals, a trading methodology and risk management, you’ll have the tools to select an appropriate currency pair. All that is left to do is repeatedly practice trading until the strategy is ingrained in your psyche. With enough passion and determination, you will become a successful trader.

SOURCE: Investopedia

Spread-To-Pip Potential: Which Pairs Are Worth Day Trading

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Sat, 26 Jun 2010 11:45:00 +0000

Spreads play a significant factor in profitable forex trading. When we compare to the average spread to the average daily movement many interesting issues arise. Namely, some pairs are more advantageous to trade than others. Secondly, retail spreads are much harder to overcome in short-term trading than some may anticipate. Third, a "larger" spread does not necessarily mean the pair is not as good for day trading when compared to some lower spread alternatives. Same goes for a "smaller" spread - it does not mean it is better to trade than a larger spread alternative.

Establishing a Base Line
To understand what we are dealing with, and which pairs are more suited to day trading, a base line is needed. For this the spread is converted to a percentage of the daily range. This allows us to compare spreads versus what the maximum pip potential is for a day trade in that particular pair. While the numbers below reflect the values in existence at a particular period of time, the test can be applied at any time to see which currency pair is offering the best value in terms of its spread to daily pip potential. The test can also be used to cover longer or shorter periods of time.

These are the daily values and approximate spreads (will vary from broker to broker) as of April 7, 2010. As daily average movements change so will the percentage that the spread represents of the daily movement. A change in the spread will also affect the percentage. Please note that in the percentage calculation the spread has been deducted from the daily average range. This is to reflect that retail customers cannot buy at the lowest bid price of the day shown on their charts.

EUR/USD
Daily Average Range (12):105
Spread: 3
Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 3/102= 2.94%
USD/JPY
Daily Average Range (12):80
Spread: 3
Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 3/77= 3.90%
GBP/USD
Daily Average Range (12):128
Spread: 4
Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 4/124= 3.23%
EUR/JPY
Daily Average Range (12):121
Spread: 4
Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 4/117= 3.42%
USD/CAD
Daily Average Range (12):66
Spread: 4
Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 4/62= 6.45%
USD/CHF
Daily Average Range (12):98
Spread: 4
Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 4/94= 4.26%
GBP/JPY
Daily Average Range (12):151
Spread: 6
Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 6/145= 4.14%

Which Pairs to Trade
When the spread is placed into percentage terms of the daily average move, it can be seen that the spread can be quite significant and have a large impact on day-trading strategies. This is often overlooked by traders who feel they are trading for free since there is no commission.

If a trader is actively day trading and focusing on a certain pair, making trades each day, it is most likely they will trade pairs that have the lowest spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD exhibit the best ratio from the pairs analyzed above. The EUR/JPY also ranks high among the pairs examined. It should be noted that even though the GBP/USD and EUR/JPY have a four-pip spread they out rank the USD/JPY which commonly has a three pip spread.

In the case of the USD/CAD, which also has a four-pip spread, it was one of the worst pairs to day trade with the spread accounting for a significant portion of the daily average range. Pairs such as these are better suited to longer term moves, where the spread becomes less significant the further the pair moves.

Adding Some Realism
The above calculations assumed that the daily range is capturable, and this is highly unlikely. Based simply on chance and based on the average daily range of the EUR/USD, there is far less than a 1% chance of picking the high and low. Despite what people may think of their trading abilities, even a seasoned day trader won't fair much better in being able to capture an entire day's range - and they don't have to.

Therefore, some realism needs to be added to our calculation, accounting for the fact that picking the exact high and low is extremely unlikely. Assuming that a trader is unlikely to exit/enter in the top 10% of the average daily range, and is unlikely to exit /enter in the bottom 10% of the average daily range, this means that trader has 80% of the available range available to them. Entering and exiting within this area is more realistic than being able to enter right in the area of a daily high or low.

Using 80% of the average daily range in the calculation provides the following values for the currency pairs. These numbers paint a portrait that the spread is very significant.

EUR/USD
Spread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 3/81.6= 3.68%
USD/JPY
Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 3/61.6= 4.87%
GBP/USD
Spread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 4/99.2= 4.03%
EUR/JPY
Spread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 4/93.6= 4.27%
USD/CAD
Spread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 4/49.6= 8.06%
USD/CHF
Spread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 4/75.2= 5.32%
GBP/JPY
Spread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 6/116= 5.17%

With the exception of the EUR/USD, which is just under, 4%+ of the daily range is eaten up by the spread. In some pairs the spread is a significant portion of the daily range when factoring for the likely possibly that the trader will not be able to accurately pick entries/exits within 10% of the high and low which establish the daily range.

SOURCE: INVESTOPEDIA

Forex: Ichimoku Cloud Filters Information Storm

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 02:12:00 +0000

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo or equilibrium chart isolates higher probability trades in the forex market. It is new to the mainstream, but has been rising incrementally in popularity among novice and experienced traders. More known for its applications in the futures and equities forums, the Ichimoku displays a clearer picture because it shows more data points, which provide a more reliable price action. The application offers multiple tests and combines three indicators into one chart, allowing the trader to make the most informed decision. Learn how the Ichimoku works and how to add it to your own trading routine.

Getting to Know Ichimoku
Before a trader can trade effectively on the chart, a basic understanding of the components that make up the equilibrium chart need to be established. Created and revealed in 1968, the Ichimoku was developed in a manner unlike most other technical indicators and chart applications. Usually formulated by statisticians or mathematicians in the industry, the indicator was constructed by a Tokyo newspaper writer named Goichi Hosoda and a handful of assistants running multiple calculations.What they came up with is now used by many Japanese trading rooms because it offers multiple tests on the price action, creating higher probability trades. Although many traders are intimidated by the abundance of lines drawn when the chart is actually applied, the components can be easily translated into more commonly accepted indicators.

Essentially made up of four major components, the application offers the trader key insight into FX market price action. First, we'll take a look at both the Tenkan and Kijun Sens. Used as a moving average crossover, both lines are simple translations of the 20- and 50-day moving averages, although with slightly different time frames.

1. The Tenkan Sen - Calculated as the sum of the highest high and the lowest low divided by two. The Tenkan is calculated over the previous seven to eight time periods.

2. The Kijun Sen - Calculated as the sum of the highest high and the lowest low divided by two. Although the calculation is similar, the Kijun takes the past 22 time periods into account.

Now let's take a look at the most important component, the Ichimoku "cloud", which represents current and historical price action. It behaves in much the same way as simple support and resistance by creating formative barriers. The last two components of the Ichimoku application are:

3. Senkou Span A - The sum of the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen divided by two. The calculation is then plotted 26 time periods ahead of the current price action.

4. Senkou Span B - The sum of the highest high and the lowest low divided by two. This calculation is taken over the past 44 time periods and is plotted 22 periods ahead.

Once plotted on the chart, the area between the two lines is referred to as the Kumo, or cloud. Comparatively thicker than your run-of-the-mill support and resistance lines, the cloud offers the trader a thorough filter. Instead of giving the trader a visually thin price level for support and resistance, the thicker cloud will tend to take the volatility of the currency markets into account. A break through the cloud and a subsequent move above or below it will suggest a better and more probable trade. Let's take a look Figure 2's comparison.

To Recap:

1. Refer To The Kijun / Tenkan Cross - The potential crossover in both lines will act in similar fashion to the more recognized moving average crossover. This technical occurrence is great for isolating moves in the price action.

2. Confirm Down / Uptrend With Chikou - Confirming that the market sentiment is in line with the crossover will increase the probability of the trade as it acts in similar fashion with a momentum oscillator.

3. Price Action Should Break Through The Cloud - The impending down/uptrend should make a clear break through of the cloud of resistance/support. This decision will increase the probability of the trade working in the trader's favor.

4. Follow Money Management When Placing Entries - By adhering to strict money management rules, the trader will be able to balance risk/reward ratios and control the position.

The Round Up
This indicator is intimidating at first, but once the Ichimoku chart is broken down, every trader from novice to advanced will find the application helpful. Not only does it mesh three indicators into one, but it also offers a more filtered approach to the price action for the currency trader. Additionally, this approach will not only increase the probability of the trade in the FX markets, but will assist in isolating only the true momentum plays. This is opposed to riskier trades where the position has a chance of trading back former profits.

Read More - Investopedia

Weekend Analysis: A Path To Forex Profits

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 07:46:00 +0000

There are three basic reasons for doing a weekend analysis. The first reason is that you want to establish a "big picture" view of a particular market in which you are interested. Doing this analysis over the weekend, when the markets are closed, is helpful because such an analysis can be made when the markets are not in dynamic flux and, therefore, you don't need to react to situations as they are unfolding.

Secondly, the analysis will help you to set up your trading plans for the coming week, which in turn will help you to decide what trading plans you might want to implement. Remember, shooting from the hip can leave a hole in your pocket! Weekend analysis should be more akin to an architect preparing a blue print from which he will take the steps, based on his blue print, to construct the different aspects of the building he's designed.

Finally, the reason for undertaking a weekend analysis is to build a routine preparation method that will help to build a trading plan in the area in which you are focusing so you can establish the necessary mindset for the upcoming week. A good analysis is how you can "psych" yourself up for the oncoming trading activity.

Preparing for the Week
Since this is a forex article, the emphasis is on the necessary preparation for trading forex during the coming week. But the preparatory steps can also be used and are helpful if you trade stocks, bonds or commodities. It's important to remember that none of the markets are actually separate, or trade in a vacuum. All the markets are interdependent, so that in a global economy the purchase of bonds, equities, goods and services all have an effect on the levels of supply and demand for currencies. Therefore, the price levels of the various currencies will vary when money flows around the world as investment searches for the highest and safest yields.

Understand the Drivers
The art of successful trading is partly due to an understanding of the current relationships between markets and the reasons that these relationships exist. It is important to understand the causative factors that are in play at the moment. Remember, though, that these relationships can and do change over time. Once you have a grasp on the existing relationships, then a study of price charts and the statements of the pundits, insiders, brokers and news services can be either reinforcing or ignored depending on your particular reading of the circumstances.

For example, a stock market recovery could be explained by investors who are anticipating an economic recovery. These investors believe that companies will have improved earnings and, therefore, greater valuations in the future. Hence they believe that now is a good time to buy! Or it can be that speculation, based on a flood of liquidity, is fueling momentum and that good old greed is pushing prices higher and higher until all players are on board so that the selling can begin.

A weekend analysis should be a basis for an understanding of the circumstances currently in play. These are the true fundamentals. Therefore the first question to ask is, why? Why are these things happening? What are the drivers behind the market actions?

Technical Drivers
Many technical analysts believe that patterns or certain price levels on charts can also be the drivers of trader behavior. They believe that so many traders are watching for these patterns that they become self-fulfilling prophecies. There has long been a debate, for example, whether a Fibonacci level is a number that is a measurement of some natural force or whether it is valid just because so many people watch for the number to occur and then trade accordingly. Whatever the reason, there are certain patterns and levels that will trigger trader action.

The News
The news also fuels actions. Traders wait for the news releases to confirm or deny their hypotheses and then enter or exit their trades. If these news releases occur at certain technical levels then they attract even more trader activity and can increase the odds of a successful trade. Not every news release is always valid for timing a trade. Those releases that occur at specific chart confluences can have a more dramatic effect on the volatility of the market and will provide better trading opportunities.

Setting Up a Trading Plan
By doing a weekend analysis, a trader can prepare for the coming week and, depending on the type of trading he or she likes to do, such as scalping the news, or trading the five minute charts or waiting for a swing trade setup, he or she will have a blueprint to guide his trading. The old adage of "plan your trade – and trade your plan," is sage advice.

Source - Investopedia

Is Your Forex Broker A Scam?

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 06:26:00 +0000

If you do an internet search on forex broker scams, the number of results returned is staggering. While the forex market is slowly becoming more regulated, there are many unscrupulous brokers who should not be in business. Fortunately, they eventually get weaned out.

However, when you're looking to trade forex, it's important to know which brokers are reliable and viable, and to avoid the ones that aren't. In order to sort out the strong brokers from the weak, and the reputable ones from those with shady dealings, we must go through a series of steps before depositing a large amount of capital with a broker. Trading is hard enough in itself, but when a broker is implementing practices that work against the trader, making a profit can be nearly impossible.

Separating Fact from Fiction
When faced with all sorts of forums posts, articles and disgruntled comments about a broker, we must remember that many traders fail and never make a profit. Many of these disgruntled traders then post content online that blames the broker (or some other outside influence) for their own failed trading strategies. Thus, when researching a potential forex broker, traders must learn to separate fact from fiction.

In many cases, it may seem to a trader that a broker was intentionally trying to cause a loss. Complaints such as: "As soon as I placed the trade, the direction of the market reversed;" "The broker stop hunted my positions;" or "I always had slippage on my orders, and never in my favor" are not uncommon. These types of experiences are common to all traders, and it is quite possible that the broker is not at fault.

New forex traders often fail to trade with a tested strategy or trading plan. Instead, they make trades when psychology dictates they should. If a trader feels the market has to move in one direction or the other, there is a 50% chance he or she will be correct. When the rookie trader enters a position, often he or she is entering right at a time when their emotions are waning; experienced traders are aware of these junior tendencies and step in, taking the trade the other way. This befuddles new traders and leaves them feeling that the market - or their brokers - are out to get them and take their individual profits. Most of the time this is not the case, it is simply a failure by the trader to understand market dynamics.

On occasion, losses are the broker's fault. This can occur when a broker attempts to rack up trading commissions at the client's expense. There have been reports of brokers arbitrarily moving quoted rates to trigger stop orders when other brokers' rates have not gone to that price. Luckily for traders, this is not likely to occur. One must remember that trading is usually not a zero-sum game, and brokers primarily make commissions with increased trading volumes. Overall, it is in the best interest of brokers to have long-term clients who trade regularly and thus sustain capital or make a profit.

The slippage issue can often be attributed to a psychological phenomenon. It is common practice for inexperienced traders to panic; they fear missing a move, so they hit their buy key; or they fear losing more and so they hit the sell key. In volatile exchange rate environments, the broker cannot ensure that an order will be executed at the desired price. This results in sharp movements and often slippage. The same is true for stop or limit orders. Some brokers guarantee stop and limit order fills, while others do not. Even in more transparent markets, slippage occurs, markets move and we don't always get the price we want.

Therefore, often what is perceived as a scam is just the trader not understanding the market he or she is trading.

The Real Problem
Real problems can begin to develop when communication between a trader and his or her broker begins to break down. If a trader does not get email responses from his or her broker, the broker fails to answer the phone, or provides vague answers to a trader's questions, these are red flags that a broker may not be looking out for the client's best interest.

Any arising issues should be resolved and explained to the trader and the broker should also be helpful and display good customer relations. One of the most detrimental issues that may arise between a broker and a trader in this case is the trader's inability to withdraw money from a trading account.

Protecting Yourself
Protecting yourself from unscrupulous brokers in the first place is ideal. The following steps should help:

Do an online search for reviews of the broker. Take what is said and filter it based on what was said in the first section; could this be just a disgruntled trader? In the same search, find if there are outstanding legal actions against the broker.
Make sure there are no complaints about not being able to withdraw funds. If there are, contact the user if possible and ask them about their experience.
Read through all the fine print of the documents when opening an account. Incentives to open account can often be used against the trader when attempting to withdraw funds. For instance, if a trader deposits $10,000 and gets a $2,000 bonus, and then the trader loses money and attempts to withdraw some remaining funds, the broker may say he or she cannot withdraw because the bonus cannot be withdrawn. Read the fine print and make sure to understand all contingencies in regards to withdrawals and whether incentives impact withdrawals.
If you are satisfied with your research on a particular broker, open a mini account or an account with a small amount of capital. Trade it for a month or more and then attempt a withdrawal. If everything has gone well, it should be relatively safe to deposit more funds. If you have problems, attempt to discuss them with the broker. If that fails, move on and post a detailed account of your experience online so others can learn from your experience.

More information here - INVESTOPEDIA

Learn Forex Trading With Forex Nitty Gritty

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:30:00 +0000

I found an article in ezinearticles talking about Forex Nitty Gritty so i wanted to share it here. I just would like to let you know that the article below is from the author's experience about Nitty Gritty.

Article Source: ezinearticles

I wanted to talk a little about how to learn Forex trading with Forex Nitty Gritty.

Unlike some people, I'm not going to pretend to denounce Forex Nitty Gritty as a scam, then try and tell you to buy it. Frankly, it really doesn't matter to me if you buy it or not. I'm just here to give you my opinion.

Forex Nitty Gritty is a new Forex trading course released by Bill Poulos. This is the same 30+ year trader and mentor that has produced trading courses such as Forex Profit Accelerator (which I've been using and loving for about 8 months or so now), and Forex Income Engine (which in my opinion was a complete flop until he recently re-released it as Forex Income Engine 2.0).

However, Forex Nitty Gritty is different than Forex Profit Accelerator and Forex Income Engine in many ways. First, Forex Nitty Gritty was designed and developed for the beginner Forex traders. His previous courses, and many others I've seen, are generally developed for more experienced and advanced traders. Then beginning traders get it, don't have any idea what to do with it, don't ask for support from his great support staff, and return it, frustrated. But Forex Nitty Gritty, being designed for the beginner, leaves that all behind.

Another way it is different, is that it has great support specifically to help the Forex trader beginner learn and understand how to trade Forex. All too often, I see trading systems and methods, Forex robots and automated trading systems, aimed at taking money from unsuspecting people and providing nothing of value. Forex Nitty Gritty has redefined customer support by providing a LOT of ways for the beginning forex trader to learn.

And Forex Nitty Gritty is priced for beginners too. It doesn't cost thousands of dollars like many other great courses. As a matter of fact, it costs less than almost all of the forex courses, robots, automated trading systems and other such things. It doesn't cost much more than those junky 20 page ebooks that people sell to unsuspecting beginners. And Forex Nitty Gritty is MUCH MORE than that. As a matter of fact, here is only SOME of the things you'll learn with Forex Nitty Gritty:

The Overview Module covers topics such as (but not limited to) What Forex is, who trades Forex, explaining the forex markets, forex pairs and forex trading requirements.

Module 2 starts teaching the mechanics of forex, such as what the major pairs are, the most active hours traded, how to read price quotes, leverage and margin, how to calculate profit and loss, order types, buying and selling, forex software, bar and candlestick charts, and timeframes.

Trading mechanics are continued in Module 3, teaching investing vs. trading, fundamental and technical analysis, indicators and technical tools, common price patterns, and even talks a bit about Forex Robots, Automated Trading Systems, and "Black Box" systems.

And Forex Nitty Gritty comes with another 4 modules to provide amazing learning potential for beginner forex traders!

So to all those people that try and pass off Forex Nitty Gritty as a scam, I say shame on you. You either believe in a product, or you don't. Do I think it will work for everybody? Nope. I think that it is the perfect course for a beginning forex trader, IF you want to put forth a little time and effort to actually learn how to trade forex profitably. No, this isn't the golden egg laying goose either. But for less than a hundred bucks, it provides you with SO MUCH incredible information about how to trade forex, it would be silly to pass up on it, if you truly want to learn.

The information in this course, the way it is presented, the support you get along with the course, all the examples and topic by topic training you recieve, to make sure you "get it" is worth its weight in gold. You can spend a hundred bucks on a good dinner or two. Isn't it worth that to truly learn and understand the Forex markets?

I think it is. Even I got something out of this course. Yes, for the price, I couldn't pass it up either. And Forex Nitty Gritty was worth every penny, and more.

Term For The Day

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:19:00 +0000

What is Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

The branch of the Federal Reserve Board that determines the direction of monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of the board of governors, which has seven members, and five reserve bank presidents. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York serves continuously, while the presidents of the other reserve banks rotate their service of one-year terms.

Forex Trading Rules: No Excuses, Ever

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 10:17:00 +0000

Our boss once invited us into his office to discuss a trading program that he wanted to set up. "I have one rule only," he noted. Looking us straight in the eye, he said, "no excuses."

Instantly we understood what he meant. Our boss wasn't concerned about traders booking losses. Losses are a given part of trading and anyone who engages in this enterprise understands and accepts that fact. What our boss wanted to avoid were the mistakes made by traders who deviated from their trading plans. It was perfectly acceptable to sustain a drawdown of 10% if it was the result of five consecutive losing trades that were stopped out at a 2% loss each. However, it was inexcusable to lose 10% on one trade because the trader refused to cut his losses, or worse yet, added to a position beyond his risk limits. Our boss knew that the first scenario was just a regular part of business, while the second one could ultimately blow up of the entire account.

The Need For Rationalization
In the quintessential '80s movie, "The Big Chill", Jeff Goldblum's character tells Kevin Kline's that "rationalization is the most powerful thing on earth. As human beings we can go for a long time without food or water, but we can't go a day without a rationalization."

This quote has strikes a chord with us because it captures the ethos behind the "no excuses" rule. As traders, we must take responsibility for our mistakes. In a business where you either adapt or die, the refusal to acknowledge and correct your shortcomings will ultimately lead to disaster.

Case In Point
Markets can and will do anything. Witness the blowup of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM). At one time, it was one of the most prestigious hedge funds in the world, whose partners included several Nobel Prize winners. In 1998, LTCM went bankrupt, nearly bringing the global financial markets to its knees when a series of complicated interest rate plays generated billions of dollars worth of losses in a matter of days. Instead of accepting the fact that they were wrong, LTCM traders continued to double up on their positions, believing that the markets would eventually turn their way.

It took the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a series of top-tier investment banks to step in and stem the tide of losses until the portfolio positions could be unwound without further damage. In post-debacle interviews, most LTCM traders refused to acknowledge their mistakes, stating that the LTCM blowup was the result of extremely unusual circumstances unlikely to ever happen again. LTCM traders never learned the "no excuses" rule, and it cost them their capital.

No Excuses
The "no excuses" rule is most applicable to those times when the trader does not understand the price action of the markets. If, for example, you are short a currency because you anticipate negative fundamental news and that news occurs, but the currency rallies instead, you must get out right away. If you do not understand what is going on in the market, it is always better to step aside and not trade. That way, you will not have to come up with excuses for why you blew up your account. No excuses. Ever. That's the rule professional traders live by.

Source: Investopedia

Forex Trading Rules: Risk Can Be Predetermined; Reward Is Unpredictable

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 06:48:00 +0000

If there is one inviolable rule in trading, it must be "stick to your stops". Before entering every trade, you must know your pain threshold. This is the best way to make sure that your losses are controlled and that you do not become too emotional with your trading.

Trading is hard; there are more unsuccessful traders than there are successful ones. But more often than not, traders fail not because their ideas are wrong, but because they became too emotional in the process. This failure stems from the fact that they closed out their trades too early, or they let their losses run too extensively. Risk MUST be predetermined. The most rational time to consider risk is before you place the trade - when your mind is unclouded and your decisions are unbiased by price action. On the other hand, if you have a trade on, you want to stick it out until it becomes a winner, but unfortunately that does not always happen. You need to figure out what the worst-case scenario is for the trade, and place your stop based on a monetary or technical level. Once again, we stress that risk MUST be predetermined before you enter into the trade and you MUST stick to its parameters. Do not let your emotions force you to change your stop prematurely.

The Risk
Every trade, no matter how certain you are of its outcome, is simply an educated guess. Nothing is certain in trading. There are too many external factors that can shift the movement in a currency. Sometimes fundamentals can shift the trading environment, and other times you simply have unaccountable factors, such as option barriers, the daily exchange rate fixing, central bank buying etc. Make sure you are prepared for these uncertainties by setting your stop early on.

The Reward
Reward, on the other hand, is unknown. When a currency moves, the move can be huge or small. Money management becomes extremely important in this case. Referencing our rule of "never let a winner turn into a loser", we advocate trading multiple lots. This can be done on a more manageable basis using mini-accounts. This way, you can lock in gains on the first lot and move your stop to breakeven on the second lot - making sure that you are only playing with the house's money - and ride the rest of the move using the second lot.

Make the Trend Your Friend
The FX market is a trending market. Trends can last for days, weeks or even months. This is a primary reason why most black boxes in the FX market focus exclusively on trends. They believe that any trend moves they catch can offset any whipsaw losses made in range-trading markets. Although we believe that range trading can also yield good profits, we recognize the reason why most large money is focused on looking for trends. Therefore, if we are in a range-bound market, we bank our gain using the first lot and get stopped out at breakeven on the second, still yielding profits. However, if a trend does emerge, we keep holding the second lot into what could potentially become a big winner.

Half of trading is about strategy, the other half is undoubtedly about money management. Even if you have losing trades, you need to understand them and learn from your mistakes. No strategy is foolproof and works 100% of the time. However, if the failure is in line with a strategy that has worked more often than it has failed for you in the past, then accept that loss and move on. The key is to make your overall trading approach meaningful but to make any individual trade meaningless. Once you have mastered this skill, your emotions should not get the best of you, regardless of whether you are trading $1,000 or $100,000. Remember: In trading, winning is frequently a question of luck, but losing is always a matter of skill.

Source: Investopedia

Forex Trading Rules: What Is Mathematically Optimal Is Psychologically Impossible

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 08:09:00 +0000

Novice traders who first approach the markets will often design very elegant, very profitable strategies that appear to generate millions of dollars on a computer backtest. The majority of such strategies have extremely impressive win-loss and profit ratios, often demonstrating $3 of wins for just $1 of losses. Armed with such stellar research, these newbies fund their FX trading accounts and promptly proceed to lose all of their money. Why? Because trading is not logical but psychological in nature, and emotion will always overwhelm the intellect in the end, typically forcing the worst possible move out of the trader at the wrong time.

Trading Is More Art Than Science
As E. Derman, head of quantitative strategies at Goldman Sachs, a leading investment banking firm, once noted, "In physics you are playing against God, who does not change his mind very often. In finance, you are playing against God's creatures, whose feelings are ephemeral, at best unstable, and the news on which they are based keeps streaming in."

This is the fundamental flaw of most beginning traders. They believe that they can "engineer" a solution to trading and set in motion a machine that will harvest profits out of the market. But trading is less of a science than it is an art; and the sooner traders realize that they must compensate for their own humanity, the sooner they will begin to master the intricacies of trading.

Textbook Vs. Real World
Here is one example of why in trading what is mathematically optimal is often psychologically impossible.

The conventional wisdom in the markets is that traders should always trade with a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio. On the surface this appears to be a good idea. After all, if the trader is only correct 50% of the time, over the long run she or he will be enormously successful with such odds. In fact, with a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio, the trader can be wrong 6.5 times out of 10 and still make money. In practice this is quite difficult to achieve.

Imagine the following scenario: You place a trade in GBP/USD. Let's say you decide to short the pair at 1.7500 with a 1.7600 stop and a target of 1.7300. At first, the trade is doing well. The price moves in your direction, as GBP/USD first drops to 1.7400, then to 1.7360 and begins to approach 1.7300. At 1.7320, the GBP/USD decline slows and starts to turn back up. Price is now 1.7340, then 1.7360, then 1.7370. But you remain calm. You are seeking a 2:1 reward to risk. Unfortunately, the turn in the GBP/USD has picked up steam; before you know it, the pair not only climbs back to your entry level but then swiftly rises higher and stops you at 1.7600.

You just let a 180-point profit turn into a 100-point loss. In effect, you created a -280-point swing in your account. This is trading in the real world, not the idealized version presented in textbooks. This is why many professional traders will often scale out of their positions, taking partial profits far sooner than two times risk, a practice that often reduces their reward-to-risk ratio to 1.5 or even lower. Clearly that's a mathematically inferior strategy, but in trading, what's mathematically optimal is not necessarily psychologically possible.

Source: Investopedia

Forex Trading Rules: Know the Difference Between Scaling In and Adding to a Loser

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 03:32:00 +0000

One of the biggest mistakes that traders make is to keep adding to a losing position, desperately hoping for a reversal. As traders increase their exposure while price travels in the wrong direction, their losses mount to a point where they are forced to close out their positions at a major loss or wait numbly for the inevitable margin call to automatically do it for them. Typically in these scenarios, the initial reasoning for the trade has disappeared, and a smart trader would have closed out the position and moved on.

However, some traders find themselves adding into the position long after the reason for the trade has changed, hoping that by magic or chance things will eventually turn their way.

We liken this to driving in a car late at night and not being sure whether you are on the right road. When this happens, you are faced with two choices:

To keep on going down the road blindly and hope that you will find your destination before ending up in another state
To turn the car around and go back the way you came, until you reach a point from where you can actually find the way home.

This is the difference between stubbornly proceeding in the wrong direction and cutting your losses short before it is too late. Admittedly, you might eventually find your way home by stumbling along back roads - much like a trader could salvage a bad position by catching an unexpected turnaround. However, before that time comes, the driver could very well have run out of gas, much like the trader can run out of capital.

Do Not Make a Bad Position Worse
Adding to a losing position that has gone beyond the point of your original risk is the wrong way to trade.There are, however, times when adding to a losing position is the right way to trade. This type of strategy is known as scaling in.

Plan Your Entry and Exit and Stick To It
The difference between adding to a loser and scaling in is your initial intent before you place the trade.

If your intention is to ultimately buy a total of one regular 100,000 lot and you choose to establish a position in clips of 10,000 lots to get a better average price (instead of the full amount at the same time) this is called scaling in. This is a popular strategy for traders who are buying into a retracement of a broader trend and are not sure how deep the retracement will be; therefore, the trader will scale down into the position in order to get a better average price. The key is that the reasoning for this approach is established before the trade is placed and so is the "ultimate stop" on the entire position. In this case, intent is the main difference between adding to a loser and scaling in.

Source: Investopedia

Forex Trading Rules: Being Right but Being Early Simply Means that You are Wrong

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 05:47:00 +0000

There is a great Richard Prior routine in which the comic lectures the audience about how the only way to respond when your spouse catches you cheating red-handed is by calmly stating, "Who are you going to believe? Me? Or your lying eyes?" While this line always gets a huge laugh from the crowd, unfortunately, many traders take this advice to heart. The fact of the matter is that eyes do not lie. If a trader is short a currency pair and the price action moves against him, relentlessly rising higher, the trader is wrong and needs to admit that fact - preferably sooner rather than later.

Analysis of the EUR/USD 2004-2005
In FX, trends can last far longer than seem reasonable. For example, in 2004 the EUR/USD kept rallying - rising from a low of 1.2000 all the way to 1.3600 over a period of just two months. Traders looking at the fundamentals of the two currencies could not understand the reasons behind the move because all signs pointed to dollar strength.

True enough, the U.S. was running a record trade deficit, but it was also attracting capital from Asia to offset the shortfall. In addition, U.S. economic growth was blazing in comparison to the Eurozone. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) was growing at a better than 3.5% annual rate compared to barely 1% in the Eurozone. The Fed had even started to raise rates, equalizing the interest rate differential between the euro and the greenback. Furthermore, the extremely high exchange rate of the euro was strangling European exports - the one sector of the Eurozone economy critical to economic growth. As a result, U.S. unemployment rates kept falling, from 5.7-5.2%, while German unemployment was reaching post-World War II highs, climbing into the double digits.

What If You Took a Short Position and Exited Early?
In this scenario, dollar bulls had many good reasons to sell the EUR/USD, yet the currency pair kept rallying. Eventually, the EUR/USD did turn around, retracing the whole 2004 rally to reach a low of 1.1730 in late 2005. But imagine a trader shorting the pair at 1.3000. Could he or she have withstood the pressure of having a 600-point move against a position? Worse yet, imagine someone who was short at 1.2500 in the fall of 2004. Could that trader have taken the pain of being 1,100 points in drawdonw?

The irony of the matter is that both of those traders would have profited in the end. They were right but they were early. Unfortunately, in currency markets, close is not good enough. The FX market is highly leveraged, with default margins set at 100:1. Even if the two traders above used far more conservative leverage of 10:1, the drawdown to their accounts would have been 46% and 88%, respectively.

Right Place, Right Time
In FX, successful directional trades not only need to be right in analysis, but they also need to be right in timing as well.. That's why believing "your lying eyes" is crucial to successful trading. If the price action moves against you, even if the reasons for your trade remain valid, trust your eyes, respect the market and take a modest stop. In the currency market, being right and being early is the same as being wrong.

Source: Investopedia

Why isn't the EUR/USD currency pair quoted as USD/EUR?

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 05:18:00 +0000

In a currency pair, the first currency in the pair is called the base currency and the second is called the quote currency.

Currency pairs can be separated into two types, direct and indirect. In a direct quote, the domestic currency is the base currency, while the foreign currency is the quote currency. An indirect quote is just the opposite: the foreign currency is the base currency and the domestic currency is the quote currency. For an American trader, the EUR/USD quote is an indirect one. So, for example, a quote of 0.80 EUR/USD would mean that it takes 0.80 euros to purchase US$1.

Although nearly 89% of the currency trades made around the world involve the U.S. dollar, the EUR/USD currency pair is always quoted indirectly. The reason for this is mostly convention. A EUR/USD quote could easily be shown as USD/EUR by making a simple calculation, but there are no strict rules that determine whether a currency pair is shown directly or indirectly. The way currency pairs are quoted can also vary depending on the country in which the trader lives - most countries use direct quotes, while the U.K., Australia, New Zealand and Canada prefer indirect quotes.

Source: Investopedia

Forex Trading Rules: Always Pair Strong With Weak

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:13:00 +0000

Every baseball fan has a favorite team. The true fan knows who the team can easily beat, who they will probably lose against and who poses a big challenge. Placing a gentleman's bet on the game, the baseball fan knows the best chance for success occurs against a much weaker opponent. Although we are talking about baseball, the logic holds true for any contest. When a strong army is positioned against a weak army, the odds are heavily skewed toward the strong army winning. This is the way you should approach trading.

Matching Up Currency Pairs
When we trade currencies, we are always dealing in pairs - every trade involves buying one currency and shorting another. So, the implicit bet is that one currency will beat out the other. If this is the way the FX market is structured, then the highest probability trade will be to pair a strong currency with a weak currency. Fortunately, in the currency market, we deal with countries whose economic outlooks do not change instantaneously. Economic data from the most actively traded currencies are released every single day, which acts as a scorecard for each country. The more positive the reports, the better or stronger a country is doing; on the flip side, the more negative the reports, the weaker the country's performance.

Pairing a strong currency with a weak currency has much deeper ramifications than just the data itself. Each strong report gives a better reason for the central bank to increase interest rates, which increases the currency's yield. In contrast, the weaker the economic data, the less flexibility a country's central bank has in raising interest rates, and in some instances, if the data comes in extremely weak, the central bank may even consider lowering interest rates. The future path of interest rates is one of the biggest drivers of the currency market because it increases the yield and attractiveness of a country's currency.

Using Interest Rates
In addition to looking at how data is stacking up, an easier way to pair strong with weak may be to compare the current interest rate trajectory for a currency. For example, EUR/GBP (which is traditionally a very range-bound currency pair) broke out in the first quarter of 2006. The breakout occurred to the upside because Europe was just beginning to raise interest rates as economic growth improved.

The sharp contrasts in what each country was doing with interest rates forced the EUR/GBP materially higher and even turned the traditionally ranged-bound EUR/GBP into a mildly trending currency pair for a few months. The shift was easily anticipated, making EUR/GBP a clear trade based on pairing a strong currency with a weak currency. Because strength and weakness can last for some time as economic trends evolve, pairing the strong with the weak currency is one of the best ways for traders to gain an edge in the currency market.

Source: Investopedia

Simulated Forex Trading

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 10:50:00 +0000

As I was browsing the net, I found an article in ezinearticle site about simulated forex trading and I was kinda curious about this.. So here's some information about this:

Simulated Forex trading is the best opportunity that beginner Forex traders have to practice their Forex skills. This article will go into detail discussing what simulated Forex trading is and why beginners must try simulated forex trading before they risk their own money. Keep reading to get access to a $100,000.00 simulated Forex trading account of your own!

Simulated Forex trading is practicing Forex trading without risking any of your own money. This is an ideal way for beginner Forex traders to perfect their Forex knowledge before taking the next step of trading on Forex with their own money.

Simulated Forex trading allows the trader to make trades just like you would in a real Forex market with your own money.

With simulated forex trading the beginner Forex trader gets the full functionality of an online Forex broker at zero risk to the Forex trader.

Simulated Forex trading involves the same real charts and live price data as would occur if trading live. Simulated Forex trading will give beginner Forex traders, or traders needing to improve their self-confidence, the same fundamental Forex experience as if you were in the live "real" Forex market by allowing the Forex trader to gat the same live Forex streaming data used by successful, professional Forex traders.

Simulated Forex Trading allows the Forex trader to keep their emotions at bay. While you won't feel your pulse racing as it would if you were risking tens of thousands of dollars, it gives Forex traders a fantastic starting ground to practice their Forex fundamentals before taking it into the real world and putting their hard-earned money at risk.

Simulated Forex trading allows beginner Forex traders to learn the fundamentals of Forex money management and to perfect their Forex technical analysis skills, which are one of the most critical fundamentals of every Forex trader.

I would strongly discourage any beginner Forex trader starting out with their own money. To do so is virtual financial suicide. I suggest you start simulated Forex trading immediately. Make sure that the simulated Forex trading account has access to a reasonable amount of money to play trade with. At least $75,000 is the ideal. Keep reading to get access to a $100,000.00 simulated Forex trading account.

Source: http://ezinearticles.com/?Simulated-Forex-Trading---What-Simulated-Forex-Trading-Is-and-Why-You-Need-It&id=516891

How is the forex spot rate calculated?

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 03:23:00 +0000

The forex spot rate is determined by supply and demand. Banks all over the world are buying and selling different currencies to accommodate their customers’ requirements for trade or to exchange one currency into another.

For example, an American bank receives a deposit from a German bank on behalf of their client who wants to buy something from a company in America. The German client has to pay the American supplier in dollars. The German client has euros and these euros need to be exchanged then for dollars. The German buyer will instruct his bank to exchange the euros to dollars and transfer the money to the U.S. supplier. If the bank doesn't have a supply of dollars, it will buy the dollars from another bank and sell euros.

The sum total of all banks selling dollars and all banks buying dollars creates a supply and demand for U.S. Dollars. If the demand for dollars increases then the dollar will appreciate against other currencies. If the demand drops then the dollar depreciates against the other currencies. The rates are set by all the participating banks bidding and offering currencies all day long amongst each other. This is the interbank system and is the way currencies are traded and the way exchange rates are determined.

Source: INVESTOPEDIA

Forex Trading Rules: Trigger Fundamentally, Enter and Exit Technically

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 11:04:00 +0000

Should you trade based upon fundamentals or technicals? This is the $64 million question that traders have debated for decades and will probably continue to debate for decades to come.

Technical Analysis Vs. Fundamental Analysis
Technicals are based on forecasting the future using past price movements, also known as price action. Fundamentals, on the other hand, incorporate economic and political news to determine the future value of the currency pair.

The question of which is better is far more difficult to answer. We have often seen fundamental factors rapidly shift the technical outlook, or technical factors explain a price move that fundamentals cannot. So the answer to the question is to use both. Both methods are important and have a hand in impacting price action. The real key, however, is to understand the benefit of each style and to know when to use each discipline. Fundamentals are good at dictating the broad themes in the market, while technicals are useful for identifying specific entry and exit levels. Fundamentals do not change in the blink of an eye: in the currency markets, fundamental themes can last for weeks, months and even years.

Using Both to Make a Move
For example, one of the biggest stories of 2005 was the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate tightening cycle. In the middle of 2004, the Federal Reserve began increasing interest rates by quarter-point increments. The Fed let the market know very early on that it was going to be engaging in a long period of tightening and, as promised, it increased interest rates by 200 basis points in 2005. This policy created an extremely dollar- bullish environment in the market that lasted for the entire year.

Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero throughout 2005, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment.

Fundamentally, it was clear that the market was a very dollar-positive environment; therefore, technically, we looked for opportunities to buy on dips rather than sell on rallies. A perfect example was the rally from 101.70 to 113.70. The retracement paused right at the 38.2% Fibonnci support, which would have been a great entry point and a clear example of a trade that was based on fundamentals but looked for entry and exit points based on technicals.

In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.

Source: Investopedia

Forex Trading Rules: Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 02:06:00 +0000

Never risk more than 2% per trade. This is the most common - and yet also the most violated - rule in trading and goes a long way toward explaining why most traders lose money. Trading books are littered with stories of traders losing one, two, even five years' worth of profits in a single trade gone terribly wrong. This is the primary reason why the 2% stop-loss rule can never be violated. No matter how certain the trader may be about a particular outcome, the market, as the well known economist John Maynard Keynes, said, "can stay irrational far longer that you can remain solvent."

Swinging for the Fences

Most traders begin their trading careers, whether consciously or subconsciously, by visualizing "The Big One" - the one trade that will make them millions and allow them to retire young and live carefree for the rest of their lives. In FX, this fantasy is further reinforced by the folklore of the markets. Who can forget the time that George Soros "broke the Bank of England" by shorting the pound and walked away with a cool $1 billion profit in a single day! But the cold hard truth of the markets is that instead of winning "The Big One", most traders fall victim to a single catastrophic loss that knocks them out of the game forever.

Why the 2% Rule?

The best way to avoid such a fate is to never suffer a large loss. That is why the 2% rule is so important in trading. Losing only 2% per trade means that you would have to sustain 10 consecutive losing trades in a row to lose 20% of your account. Even if you sustained 20 consecutive losses - and you would have to trade extraordinarily badly to hit such a long losing streak - the total drawdown would still leave you with 60% of your capital intact. While that is certainly not a pleasant position to find yourself in, it means that you need to earn 80% to get back to breakeven - a tough goal but far better than the 400% target for the trader who lost 75% of his capital.

Article Source: Investopedia

Forex Trading Rules: Logic Wins; Impulse Kills

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Thu, 28 May 2009 02:12:00 +0000

More money has been lost by trading impulsively than by any other means. Ask a novice why he went long on a currency pair and you will frequently hear the answer, "Because it has gone down enough - so it's bound to bounce back." We always roll our eyes at that type of response because it is not based on reason - it's nothing more than wishful thinking.

We never cease to be amazed how hard-boiled, highly intelligent, ruthless businesspeople behave in Las Vegas. Men and women who would never pay even one dollar more than the negotiated price for any product in their business will think nothing of losing $10,000 in 10 minutes on a roulette wheel. The glitz, the noise of the pits and the excitement of the crowd turn these sober, rational businesspeople into wild-eyed gamblers. The currency market, with its round-the-clock flashing quotes, constant stream of news and the most liberal leverage in the financial world tends to have the same impact on novice traders.

Trading Impulsively Is Simply Gambling
It can be a huge rush when a trader is on a winning streak, but just one bad loss can make the same trader give all of the profits and trading capital back to the market. Just like every Vegas story ends in heartbreak, so does every tale of impulse trading. In trading, logic wins and impulse kills. The reason why this maxim is true isn't because logical trading is always more precise than impulsive trading. In fact, the opposite is frequently the case. Impulsive traders can go on stunningly accurate winning streaks, while traders using logical setups can be mired in a string of losses. Reason always trumps impulse because logically focused traders will know how to limit their losses, while impulsive traders are never more than one trade away from total bankruptcy. Let's take a look at how each trader may operate in the market.

Read more in Investopedia

Forex Trading Rules: Never Let a Winner Turn Into a Loser

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Tue, 19 May 2009 01:44:00 +0000

I already tackled about the Introduction on the trading rules in forex. Here's the first rule in the list: Never let a winner turn into a loser

Repeat: Protect your profits. Protect your profits. Protect your profits. There is nothing worse than watching your trade be up 30 points one minute, only to see it completely reverse a short while later and take out your stop 40 points lower. If you haven't already experienced this feeling firsthand, consider yourself lucky - it's a woe most traders face more often than you can imagine and is a perfect example of poor money management.

Managing Your Capital

The FX markets can move fast, with gains turning into losses in a matter of minutes, making it critical to properly manage your capital. One of the cardinal rules of trading is to protect your profits - even if it means banking only 15 pips at a time. To some, 15 pips may seem like chump change; but if you take 10 trades 15 pips at a time, that adds up to a respectable 150 points of profits. Sure, this approach may seem like trading like penny-pinching grandmothers, but the main point of trading is to minimize your losses and, along with that, to make money as often as possible.

The bottom line is that this is your money. Even if it is money that you are willing to lose, commonly referred to as risk capital, you need to look at it as "you versus the market". Like a soldier on the battlefield, you need to protect yourself first and foremost.

There are two easy ways to never let a winner turn into a loser. The first method is to trail. The second is a derivative of the first, which is to trade more than one lot.

Trailing Your Stops

Trailing stops requires work but is probably one of the best ways to lock in profits. The key to trailing stops is to set a near-term profit target. For example, if your "near-term target" is 15 pips, then as soon as you are 15 pips in the money, move your stop to breakeven. If it moves lower and takes out your stop, that is fine, since you can consider your trade a scratch and you end up with no profits or losses. If it moves higher, with each 5-pip increment you boost up your stop from breakeven by 5 pips, slowly cashing in gains. Just imagine it like a blackjack game, where every time you take in $100, you move $25 to your "do not touch" pile.

Trading In Lots

The second method of locking in gains involves trading more than one lot. If you trade two lots, for example, you can have two separate profit targets. The first target would be placed at a more conservative level, closer to your entry price, say 15 or 20 pips, while the second lot is much further away, through which you are looking to bank a much larger reward-to-risk-ratio. Once the first target level is reached, you would move your stop to breakeven, which in essence embodies the first rule: "Never let a winner turn into a loser".

Of course, 15 pips is hardly a rule written in stone. How much profit you bank and by how much you trail the stop is dependent upon your trading style and the time frame in which you choose to trade. Longer term traders may want to use a wider first target such as 50 or 100 pips , while shorter term traders may prefer to use the 15-pip target. Managing each individual trade is always more art than science. However, trading in general still requires putting your money at risk, so we encourage you to think in terms of protecting profits first and swinging for the fences second. Successful trading is simply the art of accumulating more winners than stops.

Source: Investopedia

Forex Trading Rules: Introduction

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Tue, 12 May 2009 02:29:00 +0000

Why Trade in Currencies?

There are 10 major reasons why the currency market is a great place to trade:

1. You can trade to any style - strategies can be built on five-minute charts, hourly charts ,daily charts or even weekly charts.
2. There is a massive amount of information - charts, real-time news, top level research - all available for free.
3. All key information is public and disseminated instantly.
4. You can collect interest on trades on a daily or even hourly basis.
5. Lot sizes can be customized, meaning that you can trade with as little as $500 dollars at nearly the same execution costs as accounts that trade $500 million.
6. Customizable leverage allows you to be as conservative or as aggressive as you like (cash on cash or 100:1 margin).
7. No commission means that every win or loss is cleanly accounted for in the P&L.
8. You can trade 24 hours a day with ample liquidity ($20 million up)
9. There is no discrimination between going short or long (no uptick rule).
10. You can't lose more capital than you put in (automatic margin call)

Fair Warning
This tutorial is designed to help you develop a logical, intelligent approach to currency trading base on 10 key rules. The systems and ideas presented here stem from years of observation of price action in this market and provide high probability approaches to trading both trend and countertrend setups, but they are by no means a surefire guarantee of success. No trade setup is ever 100% accurate. That is why we show you failures as well as successes - so that you may learn and understand the profit possibilities, as well as the potential pitfalls of each idea that we present.

The 10 Rules
1. Never Let a Winner Turn Into a Loser
2. Logic Wins, Impulse Kills
3. Never Risk More Than 2% per Trade
4. Trigger Fundamentally, Enter and Exit Technically
5. Always Pair Strong With Weak
6. Being Right but Being Early Simply Means That You Are Wrong
7. Know the Difference Between Scaling In and Adding to a Loser
8. What is Mathematically Optimal Is Psychologically Impossible
9. Risk Can Be Predetermined, but Reward Is Unpredictable
10. No Excuses, Ever

Trading is an art rather than a science. Therefore, no rule in trading is ever absolute (except the one about always using stops!) Nevertheless, these 10 rules work well across a variety of market environments, and will help to keep you grounded - and out of harm's way.

Source: Investopedia

Asian Currencies News

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Mon, 04 May 2009 00:28:00 +0000

If you are trading and use the fundamental analysis, then you should keep up with the economic news and events. Here's one news I found in bloomberg when I was searching for the latest news.

Asian Currencies Fall, Led by Ringgit, on Spreading Swine Flu

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Malaysian ringgit and the Singapore dollar were among the biggest decliners in Asian currencies on concern spreading swine flu will damp global economic growth and investor confidence in emerging-market assets.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies excluding the yen, dropped the most in a week and Asian stocks slid as funds based abroad sought safety in the U.S. currency and Treasuries. The ringgit also declined on bets the central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low this week in an effort to halt a slump in exports and industrial production.

“The swine flu is affecting sentiment and keeping the dollar bid,” said Carl Rajoo, an economist at Forecast Singapore Pte Ltd. “It’s causing a bit of a risk aversion. Sentiment is less optimistic. The risk of a global pandemic is severe.”

The ringgit snapped a two-day gain, weakening 0.4 percent to 3.5988 per dollar as of 5:12 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur from 3.5855 on April 24, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Singapore’s dollar fell 0.2 percent to S$1.4936 and the Philippine peso slipped 0.5 percent to 48.677.

U.S. President Barack Obama's administration declared a public-health emergency because of a growing number of swine flu cases. In Mexico, 100 people have died from flu-related causes, while infections were also confirmed in Canada, and suspected in Brazil, Europe and New Zealand, sending the respective currencies lower. Japan, Malaysia and Singapore said they are screening passengers at checkpoints for fever, while Hong Kong raised its flu response level to “serious” from “alert.”

Economic Calendar

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:18:00 +0000

What is Economic Calendar and what is the use of it in trading Forex? Well, the economic calendar can be found at some of the forex websites, an example will be Forex Factory. It will help forex traders and investors about the upcoming major news and events. Here are some of the best ways to make money using a forex calendar. Some of the very important and common economic information is interest rate announcements, non-farm pay roll, consumer price index, unemployment rates(which is the main concern in the financial world right now), retail sales, manufacturing PMI and lots more. There are news release almost everyday.

If you are trading on technical and does not keep up with recent economics events, then you are missing out on a big part of the financial world. You will need to know the forex market conditions even if you are using technical analysis for your forex trading.

For example, you have a good forex strategy and it makes you nice profits consistently, but the strategy does not tell you when is a choppy market. Then how do you judge when is a choppy market? Here comes the market conditions that you will need to know. By keeping tabs on the forex calendar, you will be handed an extra edge on how your forex trading systems should be trading.

By knowing the timing of economic news release, it is not a forex signal for trading. In fact, you should not be trading 2 to 3 hours before any data is released which has got to do to the related currency pairs. For example, when there is going to be a interest rate announcement (a very big event) for U.S, then you should not be trading pairs like EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD etc. This is to help you filter out those whipsaws that might happen when the announcement is being made.

Sometimes when a news is released, there will be a huge movement for a few minutes before the trend reverses again, those are fake signals that you would not want to take in. It is recommended that you take in trading signals around 15 minutes to 30 minutes only after the market is stabilized.

Without the aid of a forex calendar, you will hardly know when to act because you will have to be sure what is happening around and when is it happening. It's very usual for a trader to check the forex calendar for a few times a day as it is one of the criteria in a trading plan.

Forex advice and tips

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 13:31:00 +0000

The best forex trading advice starts with treating it like a business, keeping in mind that you are going against highly trained professionals who trade in the forex market for a living.

In that regard, you must follow a tested and proven forex trading system. Now, you may start out with a forex day trading method that generates profitable trades right away, or you may not.

Quite frankly, it doesn't matter much to your long term success, as losing trades are a normal and expected cost of doing business. With that stated, your objective should simply be to have far more winning trades than losing trades consistently.

The forex trading advice you ultimately decide to implement to execute trades should put the odds of a winning trade in your favor using a trading system designed to capture 20-50 pips per trade during the first 1-3 hours following specific key economic announcements.

Forex markets provide multiple opportunities to trade and profit within a 24 hour period. This can be a two edged sword at times because it can mean very late night or early morning trades.

Let's face it no one really wants to monitor trade positions 24 hours a day, five days per week. The stress and fatigue factor is far too great to effectively trade at a profitable level over time.

You can greatly reduce stress and improve your forex trading using an economic calendar to schedule trades for no more than an hour or so daily. Get in, get out and shut it down for the day with fewer losses and more trades in your favor.

Avoid losing thousands of dollars of your hard earned money trading with free or cheap tools, software and education materials unless you are absolutely certain they are the very best on the market. Expect to invest at least a few hundred dollars for the proper trading tools.

Forex trading tools that deliver fast and accurate data in a timely manner is the key ingredient to trading success. Having access to reliable information at the right moment often determines whether a trader makes or loses money.

The forex trading platform you ultimately select to trade forex should provide prices in real time with the same liquidity offered to institutional traders such as hedge funds. You can be assured your dealer-broker has staying power if it can handle the volume of liquidity required by commercial traders.

Source: http://ezinearticles.com/?Forex-Trading-Advice-and-Success-Tips&id=341113

Automated Forex Trading - The Pros and Cons

noreply@blogger.com (Bhing) — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 14:33:00 +0000

Many individuals that trade currency use one of the automated forex trading systems that are readily available today. The advances in technology in recent years have enabled trading of all sorts of commodities to break though into the digital era, thus making access much easier for the individual. Automated forex trading systems are available for currency trading now and have distinct advantages over other methods of trading.

Any individual using automated forex trading systems can now access the trading floor 24 hours a day. Unlike the stock exchange, forex trading occurs round the clock because even though the individual markets close, there is always another one open somewhere in the world. An automated forex trading system can access those markets and trade for you whenever the time is right.

Automated forex trading is easy enough to set up when you find the right system for you. There are options to explore that give you different access levels, but all will monitor changes in the currency market and alert you to changes. Automated forex trading systems will also obey your instructions. All any individual has to do is set preferences and requests and the automatic forex trading system will do the rest!

However, there are ongoing debates as to just how effective the automated forex trading systems are. Some individuals hail them as the best thing to happen to the financial industry because of the accessibility factor. However, the majority of traditional and long-standing traders of currency are still skeptical about the effectiveness of using a program to manage your portfolio instead of watching over it yourself.

Trusting technology is extremely hard for individuals that have been used to operating in a certain way. However, the main concern is the failsafe and recovery processes in place to prevent a major crash. Automated forex trading is actually digitally computerized and can only work if the system of which it is a part is fully operational. A virus or bug could actually wipe out an account and prevent trading if it happens to take hold. Advocates say that this is not possible, but whether it is or not is not known at this stage.

In truth, there is only one major disadvantage of an automated forex trading system. However, the pros most definitely outweigh it for anyone new to the floor. An automatic forex trading system can give a beginner help and can also give him or her an advantage that would otherwise have been unavailable. An automated forex trading system can certainly get you off on the right foot, as long as you do your research before hand!

Source: http://ezinearticles.com/?Automated-Forex-Trading---The-Pros-And-Cons-Of-Letting-A-Computer-Manage-Your-Investments&id=666462