Timing The Coming and Ongoing US Market Crash

CRASH IS HERE NO IFS BUTTS OR ANDS

2011-07-27T12:34:00.007-04:00

TAKE A LOOK AT THIS CHART BELOW OF THE DOW WHICH IS UPDATED AS OF 11:15AM TODAY.

WHY SHOULD YOU BE SCARED YOU MIGHT ASK?

Well you should be because this is the 3rd of 5 legs down from the top of 2008 which will break the lows of March 2009 and will continue on down until it completes all 5 legs. The ultimate bottom will be equivalent to the ongoing crash in Japan's Nikkei 225 Index which topped in 1989 around 40,000 and crashed below 5000. This means of course that all Mutal Funds, Shareholders, Pension Funds will be obliterated to the point of no return at least not in your lifetime or mine. So whats the average time to recover all those funds lost? The average is 18-25 years but in reality it could take much longer to recover and in the end analysis will be of no use to you
if you need your funds to support yourself. What would I do? Run like hell because the odds are stacked against you in a major way. I would go with a safe 2-3% return and count your luck stars you managed to save your capital. If you are afraid of missing out on potential gains in your investments then use 5% of your capital with a leveraged product such as Options, Foreign Exchange Derivative's or Forex to say take a position wherby you would say Sell or Buy The USD against another currency such as the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAN, OR SWISS FRANC (USDCHF). How would you do that you might ask? You would use Technical Analysis to ascertain if say the US DOLLAR (USDCAD) is going up or down vis a vis the Canadian Dollar. Look at the chart below.

The white bars (Up)and red bars (Down) on the top part of the chart is the price. Each bar is 1 hour in duration but can be easily changed if you wish to trade a different timeframe such as weekly, daily, 4 hour 1 hour as above and lesser timeframes such as 30 min, 15 min, 5 min, 1 min etc. I do not recommend you go less than 1 hour timeframe, The MACD Indicator (large white image) just below the price is optimized for 1 hour timeframe and creates a staircase effect when it decides to move up or down from a consolidation or

sideways pattern. If you look very very closely under the white bars (candlesticks) you will see green dotted lines which is the entry point of my trades using the MACD staircase effect as an entry point. The Trade was entered approx 2 hours ago and I bought 3 lots with margin of exactly $500 per lot times 3 lots, and then I added (3) 1/20th of a lot margin=$25 so in total I am up $2164.97 within the 2 hour timeframe from when I placed the trade. All you need to trade successfully is the above configuration exactly as I laid it out and wait for the staircase effect with white candlesticks (price) to enter. When price goes over the top of the Macd which appears as a

Mountain effect then you get out because the staircase will start down instead of up. So in effect you are only trading 2 patterns re an up or down staircase. If you try to trade any other patterns you will lose. Something you should know is that the USDCAD trades the opposite direction to the following currencies at any one point in time. So if the USDCAD (THAT IS THE US DOLLAR GAINING ON THE CAN DOLLAR) THEN GBPUSD, USDJPY ,GBPJPY,USDCHF, ETC WILL BE TRADING DOWN ON THE STAIRCASE.

Who Broke America?

2011-07-14T18:27:00.000-04:00

2011-07-14T18:25:00.000-04:00

VALUE IS IN THE EYES OF THE BEHOLDER

Lets create a Market for IBM stock. Lets say there are exactly 1 million holders of IBM stock
and there all in bed one very fine morning when the Markets open, that is except for exactly 2

owners of the stock who are wide awake and pondering their money problems. One guy figures, if only I had more money I could buy a pack of smokes, where in the name of god am I going to find $1 dollar to buy a pack of smokes. Then he remembers he owns exactly one share of IBM stock. By this time his nicotine fit has driven him up the wall and he is tearing his hair out, somebody give me a cigarette he shouts. Enough is enough, he's taking no more bull so he decides to sell his 1 share of IBM stock. He calls his Broker and sais "Sell my 1 share of IBM stock "AT THE MARKET" a legal stock market term for accept anything you can get, normally the spread is fairly tight except for the other 1 MILLION less 2 owners of the stock are in bed so there are no standing offers in the Market except for MR Scrooge the other guy in the story, he's wide awake and wants to buy IBM for little or nothing, so he already has a standing offer in the Market for exactly 1 share of IBM stock for you guessed it 1$...yes thats right one dollar. The Broker repeats back the order to "Sell At The Market" and Mr Nicotine Fit sais yes let it fly.

And so there you have it Mr Nicotine Fit has just sold IBM stock for exactly one dollar,it was previously trading at $100 dollars, yes you read that right 100 dollars. What happened,how can that happen. Well the other 1 Million owners less 2 were in bed and there was only 2 people in the Market and it only takes 2 people to agree on price or value. Mr Nicotine Fit established the new value of 1$ for 1 share of IBM stock. So the other 1 Million guys wake up and check their share price and scream blue murder

" What happened".Therin lies the lesson of you got it "LIQUIDITY"

LIQUIDTY or NO LIQUIDITY is the absense of particpation in a market such

that transactions cannot be concluded.

Thats how America went broke, first starting with Enron, then Long Term Capital Management, and you got it the Mortgage Market Meltdown

ALL BY THE USE OF DERIVATIVES IN THE PRESENCE OF NO LIQUIDITY.

The difference between the example of Mr Nicotine fit selling IBM stock which was worth
$100 for $1 a 99% drop and Derivatives are miles apart in the sense that a 5% move will
wipe out any Derivative bet so it doesnt take much imagination to figure out how a 5% move
can happen in any Market like the Mortgage Market. I used to trade Options on Stocks and
Indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and then came the the Crash of October 19th
1987 and the Dow dropped 508 point or 22% in 1 business day. So you see a drop of 22% would wipe out any Derivative bet 4 times over.

So now you are probly wondering, thats crazy , who invented or allowed these Derivatives
to happen and be traded by Banks with DEPOSITOR'S MONEY I might add.

To understand that we need to travel back in time and the year was 1933, just at the bottom
of the crash which began in 1929.

Crashes or Booms and Busts has always being a feature of Markets going back to the Roman Empire, and throughout European history including the Tulip Mania and the Mississipi South Sea Bubble. There is always a different reason for a crash each time, it just so happens that derivatives were at the root cause, but you must remember at the end of the day its a game like football and for any game you need a referee that enforces the rules, ah yes the rules, we forgot about the rules, but who sets the rules.

1933-THE GLASS-STEGALL ACT

The act was brought into play to create a chinese wall between Banking as we used to know it and Investment Banking meaning Banks at that time investing in Stocks and Bonds with depositors money which left the banks broke when the Market crashed in 1929.

It was a very wise act and imposed strict rules on Banks and their limitations to gamble with depositors money. Then just like the NFL the Game began, but we need some players, so lets pick some of the players involved. The NFL has its Rules until their changed that is, so who changed the rules in the Markets.

WHO CHANGED THE RULES.

The Markets recovered from the crash of 1929 but not before many mini crashes along the way.The American Economy was chugging along with lots of Dollars flooding the World. The year is now 1971 and then President Richard Nixon decided that Gold then pegged at $35 an ounce was an impediment to progress because there was not enough Gold in Fort Knox to back all the Dollars flying around the World being held by Foreign Governments so Nixon set Gold free from the Dollar. Gold soared to over $800 an ounce by 1981 and then came along the Reagan Era now thats where the real story begins.

REAGAN ERA.

Reagan decided that the de-regulation of Markets was the way to go to enable free trade so he set out on a course of action that would put America in Peril and bring it to its knees with the aid of Clinton. It was during the Reagan Era that it was proposed to repeal or cancel the Glass-Stegall-Act to allow Banks to invest in exotic instruments which were invented in 1973 by the financial engineers. Reagan was being advised by guess who, you wont believe it Milton Friedman and under Clinton who was advising Clinton, you guessed it Alan Greenspan.

Both economists were from the School Of Rational Expectations in which Markets find an Equilibrium the way water floats in a pool.

Clinton repealed the Glass-Stegall-Act in 1994 because he agreed fundementally with Reagan that Markets must find their own equilibrium and so now THE REAL GAME IS ON, BRING OUT THE PLAYERS.

We need some players so lets create a wee list of the culprits.

STARTING AT THE TOP.

REAGAN AND CLINTON

FEDERAL RESERVE

INVESTMENT BANKS:

JP MORGAN

MORGAN STANLEY

LEHMAN BROTHERS

BEAR STEARNS

AIG

FANNIE MAE

FREDDY MAC

FDIC

So now with the Glass-Stegall-Act removed the investments banks set their financial engineers to work. As an aside issue, Alan Greenspan was working diligently as a Director of JP Morgan before he became Federal Reserve Chairman and he lobbied very hard indeed to have the Act repealed.

Continued tomorrow.......

HOW TO TRADE CURRENCIES AND HOW TO DO IT

2011-05-26T09:10:00.009-04:00

Question......FOREX......Whats Forex.

Answer........Forex is an electronic marketplace not a physical Exchange where Currencies are traded between particpants consisting of Banks, Brokers, Market Makers, Dealers, Corporations, Individuals,
Central Banks..

Question......Can I as an individual / retailer participate or trade on the Forex market.

Answer........Yes you can quite easily in fact. All you need is a Computer. Open an account with
a Broker and depending on the Broker you may have to just sign in to use their Web Trading application
or download their application. They will require of you to Deposit money in your account, most require
a minimum of $500 but some will accept a lower amount.

Question......What knowledge do I need to Trade successfully.

Answer........You will need some basics in the structure or formation of the Forex Market and some
Technical Analysis and Fundamentals.

Question......Whats Technical Analysis.

Answer........Technical Analysis is the study of prices using a computer with the aid of the Brokers
Software to help you make a decision as to whether prices are going up, down or sideways. All you need
is a few indicators to help you make a decision and some defensive action such as using Stops to stop you out of the Market or in other words to Sell your position before you lose too much or to help you take Profits.

Question.....Where do I acquire this knowledge.

Answer.......Some Brokers offer free training and hand holding and their is lots of forums to help you acquire knowledge. Buy some books and scout the Internet. Also going forward I will write much more on Technical
Analysis and answer questions.

Question.....How do I pick a Broker

Answer......Make sure the Broker is registered with the NFA (National Futures Association) in the United States. Brokers must comply with NFA rules to set aside adequate funding to cover any unforseen financial Global calamity etc so funds that you deposit with a Broker is held seperately either in London, England or New York. I will write about various Brokers going forward re pros and cons. Recently in the United States as a result of the Frank/Dodd bill leverage maximum was adjusted downward from upwards of 400:1 , thats notation for 400 to 1 leverage to 50:1. This is the outcome in the States as a result of the financial crisis. so some brokers in order to maintain the high leverage say 200:1 they had to move their servers to places such as Cyprus or Malta. although they still maintain Institutional and still trade for large such accounts.

One Broker I approve of is Easy Forex who is registered with the NFA and its holding Bank is Barclays in london, England. They are in fact the only Broker that will allow you to open an account for $25 yes $25 and allow you to trade by depositing money with your charge card or debit card and allow you to trade within minutes which is unheard of. Normally you can only open an account by going through a rigorous process involving providing exact very enlarged driver license photo id plus other ID and a financial background summary and then you will have to pay for a money order to transfer money. Not so with Easy Forex they most certainly make it easy to open an account and trade although you should deposit $500 to start and trade very small with that money no more than 5% at a time. In addition they offer free Technical Analysis Training and lots of hand holding. If your really nice to them they may even adjust your Spread or Commission. If you wish to learn more click on their link below.

DOW , S&P TO CRASH

2011-02-24T07:35:00.003-05:00

DOW SETTING UP FOR A CRASH

Most Wall Streeters think its only a

correction, they usually call for a 3-5%

pullback. Its hard to go wrong making

such a call because most derivative

instruments are only designed to return

a profit after a 3-5% move after which

the Markets recover and go to higher

highs. In other words they never advise

to Sell which is an incredible disservice

to their investors. This time the Markets

will literally crash for a minimum of 25

years and destroy any wealth built up. This

morning the Dow Futures are down 7.00

full points and the Dow Futures are down

50 +.

S&P500 SETTING UP TO CRASH

Euro Daily Short Term Strength

2011-02-18T21:25:00.001-05:00

We will get some action to the upside, however temporary
before the Bear resumes. Above is a daily Chart which is
showing strength but more visible on the hourly Chart below.

EURO RESUMES ITS DECLINE

2011-02-14T12:10:00.002-05:00

DAILY COMPACTED CHART RESUMES ITS BEAR MARKET, EXPECT PLENTY OF DOWNSIDE ACTION WITH SOVERIGN NATIONS THREATING TO WITHDRAW FROM THE EURO AND 11 COUNTRIES AT RISK OF DEFAULT. SPAIN WILL MOST CERTAINLY DEFAULT WHICH WILLAFFECT LENDER BANKS ACROSS THE EUROZONE AND TRIGGER A DOMINO AFFECT. SPAIN WILLNEED A TRILLION EURO BAILOUT.

EURUSD DECLINE RESUMES ITS BEAR MARKET

(1 HOUR BARS COMPACTED CHART BELOW)

DOW AND SPX READY TO RUMBLE

2011-02-10T06:47:00.001-05:00

Dow Daily Chart hit the Magic 12,200 mark and showed weakness.

Is it ready to rumble? All measurements say yes all we need is a geopolitical

event to bring us the the greatest Bear Market the planet has ever seen.

Can the Fed ignite the Markets forever with Q3 and Q4. Hardly. When

you consider the harm the Fed is doing by artifically feeding the Markets it just

means the Markets have further to fall. The end of a Gigantic Cycle is the end

of a Cycle and no shenanigans will prevent the inevitable. What we are seeing

on the Chart is Wave 2 up from the bottom in March 2009. Wave 3 down is

just about to begin and will be larger than Wave 1 from the Top in 2008. Thats

not to mention Wave 4 and Wave 5 down. When its all over we will be down

75%-92%. In other words the fundementalists and Mutual fund Managers will

have a hell of a time explaining to their clients they are wiped out and permanently

wiped out since it will take 25-40 years for the Markets to come back. When the

Markets crashed in 1929 it was 1968 before you got your $1 dollar back adjusted

for inflation. The Markets went sideways for 40 years. If the Markets went sideways

from here instead of crashing for 40 years everybody will be effectively wiped out

because inflation of 2%-10% over 40 years will reduce any holdings to zero not

counting Brokers fees of 2-3%. What to do? Get out of Stocks and into Government

Bonds short term treasuries and roll over every 90 days. Is Gold the answer? No.

Cash is King.

Dow weekly Chart is ready to roll over.

S&P 500 Large Cap Index Daily is ready to roll over.

S&P 500 Weekly is ready to roll over. Risk is hugh.

TRADING THE EURO

2011-02-09T10:30:00.001-05:00

Above is a 4 Hour Bar Chart. You can see a recurring

theme with the bottom indicator when its Trending, it

always traces out a A,B,C upward movement and keeps

you on the right side of the Trade. The Eurusd is moving up

but technically its in a Bear Market as will be seen in the

Chart below.

Eurusd Daily Chart. As you can see by the bottom

indicator prices while moving up prices are still in a

Bear Market and will turn down only when the 4 Hour

Chart signal turn down.

Above Chart shows the Eurusd 5 Minute Bars. The

method used always keeps you on the right side of

the Trade. In this case the lower indicator is clearly

telling you to Buy the Eurusd (Buy the Euro, Sell

the Dollar)

Above is a 15 Minute Chart. Looking at the lower

indicator you can see prices although rising is only

a temporary move and will turn negative when the

top 5 minute chart prices turns down, then its time

to exit and Sell the Eurusd.

Above is the 30 Minute Chart. You can see prices are
beginning to turn up in sympathy with the 5,15 charts
above.

Above is the 1 Hour Chart. A long trend is still in force

as seen by the bottom indicator. Just trading a 1 Lot

and getting in only when the indicator turns up from

the bottom would have resulted in a profit of $7450.00

EURO SHORT TERM STRENGTH

2011-02-08T09:22:00.001-05:00

EURUSD 4 HOUR BARS LOSING MOMENTUM

Expect the Euro to go sideways when its short term
momentum indicator is declining. When the short term
turns negative its time to exit......................................

EURUSD 15 MINUTE BARS SHOWING STRENGTH

15 MINUTE BARS ARE SHOWING STRENGTH SO EXPECT SOME UPSIDE MOVEMENT
BEFORE FURTHER DECLINES AS INDICATED ON THE TOP CHART (4 HOUR BARS)

EURO IN A BEAR MARKET

2011-02-05T09:12:00.002-05:00

The Eurusd is well on its way into a correction with possible risk down to 1.30450.
If the Eurusd falls below the blue bands and fails to make it above the bands again
then its game over for the Euro. Either way we will know on the next Daily upside
crossover if it will make it above the bands after this decline. The Euro is in a Multi
year Bear Market which is reflecting the current and future Economic future of the
European Union. The ultimate Bear Market bottom I estimate at 81.00000 which is
a long long way down.

The Dow-A Taste Of Whats To Come

2011-02-02T18:01:00.003-05:00

this chart was created by http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2009/05/supercycle-top.html

The Dow -A Taste Of Whats To Come

The Dow is currently at 12042 which is the end of the purple line

stretching over to the far right on the Chart. The light blue line

falling to the bottom of the Chart is the expected path of the Dow

expected to bottom around 2015-2016. The Chart dates back to

the 1920's and includes the crash of 1929 which is the sharp drop

on the left hand side of the chart. Both the Chart and its expected

target of 400 ...yes thats 400 and the dates come from Elliot Wave

International and its founder Robert Precter who is known as

the worlds greatest market timer. With that prediction ofcourse

goes the global economy. Is he often wrong? A few times but not

too often which is scary. My target is 3000 which is bad enough but

400 thats everybody wiped out period. Lets hope he's wrong this time.

EURUSD SHORT TERM DECLINE TO 1.3456

2011-01-30T11:18:00.003-05:00

EURUSD DECLINE TO 1.3456 THE .618 FIBONANCCI LEVEL DAILY CHART

The EURUSD is in a short term decline to 1.3456 level before resuming its uptrend. (Above Chart)

Above Chart shows the Eurusd 4 hour compacted Chart.

EURUSD WEEKLY CHART.

EURUSD WILL FALL TO 81 BEFORE THE MULTI YEAR BEAR MARKET
IS OVER. EURUSD IS CURRENTLY AT 1.3606
Above Chart shows the Eurusd Weekly Chart. This is where it gets interesting.
The Eurusd is in a massive Bear Market Decline which should go on for a few
years. When the just happening Daily Trend resumes after a short term decline
the Bear Market will kick in but its too early yet. It will be a fantastic opportunity
to Sell the Euro against the Dollar. This can be attributed to the European Contagion
which is gathering steam. The 750 Billion rescue fund will not be nearly enough to
cover the Funding requirements of Spain who alone needs 900Billion to a Trillion
Euros, not to mention Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Belgium, Italy and then France.
Germany alone will not be stong enough to carry the above nations. Then of course
the East European nations will have to be taken care of to avoid anarchy such as
Hungary, Yugoslavia, Latvia. Nothing like a Baltic war to turn europe upside down.
We are currently observing in Egypt what happens when people are repressed and
starving because there is no jobs and no Welfare or Unemployment Benefits. Their
will be a hugh urge on behalf of European Soverign Nations to assert their Economic
perogative and they can only do so by going back to their own Currencies and leaving
the Euro Currency but stay within the EU. That way they can print their own money
and do what the United States is doing and engage in Quantative Easing a fancy term
for printing money and the risk of Hyperinflation for having done so. By devaluing
their Currencies, by printing money and increasing the Money supply they can settle
their Debts with cheaper Currencies. Every great Power in History fell by engaging
in such Policies, is it time to learn Mandarin or Cantonese.

Mike Ryan

SATELLITE TOUR OF HOME FORECLOSURES ACROSS AMERICA

2011-01-28T21:49:00.002-05:00

A Frightening Satellite Tour Of America's Foreclosure Wastelands

Gus Lubin | Jan. 27, 2011, 8:23 AM | 214,065 | 32

RealtyTrac is out with the total foreclosure numbers for 2010. On the whole things are getting worse.

72 percent of major metro areas saw an increase in foreclosure volume. Although some of the worst hit areas in Nevada, California and Florida improved from 2009, the foreclosure rate in these areas remains shockingly high. If not for some foreclosure suspensions due to the robosigning scandal, these numbers would have been higher.

For a frightening way to visualize the foreclosure crisis, we're borrowing a Google maps technique described by Barry Ritholtz.

Click here http://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-tour-foreclosure-cities-2011-1#20-boise-idaho-1-in-21-homes-in-foreclosure-the-red-dots-show-foreclosures-1

2011-01-28T01:01:00.001-05:00

This Historical Analysis Suggests S&P 500 To Top Out at 1400+ – and then Topple to 400!

January 24, 2011 by Editor · Leave a Comment

What the Uncanny Relationship with Nikkei and Crash of ’29 Suggests for the Future of the S&P 500

It has been determined by a number of market analysts (see below) that the S&P 500 could continue its progression to as high as 1500 in the first half of 2011 before it collapses completely based on a unique comparison with the Nikkei 225. Before you reject this possibility out of hand please read the entire article. Words: 596
So says Lorimer Wilson (www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com) and editor of www.munKNEE.com. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article reposting with a link* to the article source to avoid copyright infringement. Wilson goes on to say:
Market strategists Sadiq Currimbhoy, Arik Reiss, and Jacky Tang of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Asia identified a pattern** back in 2009 that supports the likelihood of additional gains in the S&P 500 regardless of the extent of the extent of the economic recovery in the U.S.. The analysts plotted the S&P 500 in DXY terms against the Nikkei by rebasing the S&P 500 to the same peak as the Nikkei but lagged by 117 months (i.e. 9.75 years) and uncovered an uncanny relationship as shown in the chart below.

Their analysis suggested that the S&P peak would be achieved by December 10th of last year but that obviously was not the case. Failing to achieve such a precise projection can be excused so the realization of such a target in the first half of 2011 should be deemed acceptable.

Editor’s Note: Don’t forget to sign up for our FREE weekly “Top 100 Stock Market, Asset Ratio & Economic Indicators in Review”

Doug Short does an on-going (***see below) inflation-adjusted overlay analysis of the Dow in of 1929 and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high against the current S&P 500 as seen below. It clearly suggests, even without the 9.75 year time-lag as put forth by the Merrill Lynch analysts above, that the S&P 500 is due for a significant correction.

Click for a larger image

Who in the world is currently reading this article along with you? Click here to find out.

The Merrill Lynch strategists went further, constructing an equally-weighted index of all markets that have crashed more than 45% since 1970 plus the U.S. stock market crash in 1930 and then averaged the recoveries from these crashes (referred to as ‘Historical Peak-Trough Index’). This is shown in the chart below with 25% and 75% bands.

When the Historical Peak-Trough Index was compared to markets that have recently experienced similar deterioration (referred to as ‘Current Peak-Trough Index’) they concluded that the current S&P 500 index looks like it’s following a similar pattern that would have the S&P 500 topping out at somewhere around 1400-1500 (i.e. 5-10% less than the S&P 500’s record high of 1565 in October 2007) before crashing back to it’s 1994 low of 400 (when the stock market bubble first began) by the end of 2013 or early 2014.
Conclusion
The Merrill Lynch Asia strategists maintained that the rally in the S&P 500 would likely be triggered by central bankers keeping interest rates low (they have), an economic recovery (slowly underway) and/or an undervalued dollar (which has turned out to be the case). Their analysis, and the current charting by Mr. Short, bear scrutiny and ongoing review for us to successfully navigate these troubled economic/financial/investment waters.
*http://www.munknee.com/2011/01/18434/;**http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKzgH4hvhh.g ***http://dshort.com/articles/2010/mega-bear-2000.html
Editor’s Note:

The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.

Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given as per paragraph 2 above.

Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our FREE Weekly Newsletter.

Submit a comment. Share your views on the subject with all our readers.

S&P

WHERE'S GOLD HEADED

2011-01-27T12:16:00.003-05:00

Where's Gold headed to and why?

If you make the assumption that only a correction is taking place then Gold
will go to the Fibonancci level of .618 which will bring it to $1370. Chances are
the Gold price will retrace the entire move back to $1156 or $1180, the level
at which the recent level begun in July-2010. If the bottom price of $1156 is
taken out then the Bull Market in Gold is over. Currently the Bulls are hanging on
waiting for much higher prices like $5000. But one has to ask, is it completely
over for Gold. If we judge by the herd instinct then the answer is no but history
bears out that the herd approach is almost always wrong. All Bull Markets
consist of 5 legs, subdivided into 3 Legs Up and 2 Legs Down. If you look at the
Chart above you will see such a 5 Leg Formation. Price levels also meet all the
Fibonancci measurements for a 5 Leg formation. Another aspect is the fact Soverign
nations are in trouble on every level possible including their Domestic Banks and
for many an inability to sell Country Bonds. The United States is effectively
Bankrupt and its only time before the Bond Vigilantes catch up with America
and its going to happen much sooner than people expect. The Gold Market in size
is very very small once estimated at 50 Billion now closer to 100Billion. When
Central Banks are forced to sell they will crash the Price of Gold. When the issue
of Inflation is buried once and for all in favor of a Massive Deflation the Gold
Bugs will lose their Fundemental arguments not to mention a very soon upcoming
Market Crash that will put the fear of god into the most fearsome of Gold Bugs.

Consumer Confidence Index and The Stock Market

2011-01-26T06:38:00.004-05:00

Each month The Conference Board surveys 5,000 U.S. households. The survey consists of five questions that ask the respondents' opinions about the following

Current business conditions
Business conditions for the next six months
Current employment conditions
Employment conditions for the next six months
Total family income for the next six months

Consumer Confidence seems to be having a hard time getting off the ground.
The index is recovering but not even close to the recovery in the Stock Market
as measured by the S&P 500 and at the same time both the Confidence Index
and the S&P500 are very closely correlated. Why is it correlated you might
ask? Well, its the masses that invests in the Markets and its the masses (5000) that
answer the questions that form the Confidence Index. So why did the Confidence
Index not recover exactly as the Markets recovered?. Well, it was not the masses
that drove the Markets up from the bottom in Mar 2009, that was the Professionals
and big Hedge Funds, the Public was on the sidelines, they were too scared. One
interesting aspect of the Index is the fact in topped in 1989-2001 with the Dot.com
Boom and never reached those highs again. Another aspect is the type of formation
which the index has traced out. Its known as a Head & Shoulders formation with a
Left Shoulder and a Right shoulder and a Baseline which was broken during the Market
Crash. Once the Baseline is broken particuarly on a Chart that stretches Decades then
its serious business. I believe the Index will make somewhat of a recovery and then fail
once again when the Markets tops out and very soon. Bottom line.The Stock Market
move was a fake, a suckers rally which is not sustainable.
The Confidence Index will make a halfway recovery and then turn back down with
the Double Dip, but the Markets have to top first before the Dip.

THE VIX IS BEGINNING TO MOVE, WATCH OUT

2011-01-25T06:23:00.010-05:00

Whats the VIX?. Above Chart shows the VIX and when it moves UP,
watch out. Its a stealth means of measuring the Variance of prices
for the next 30 days in the S&P500 Chart below. In other words
you would only make a trade on the S&P500 when the VIX is moving
up.
Its calculated by looking at the front month Out Of The Money
Puts and Calls and 2nd month to calculate the Implied Volatility
of the S&P500. It looks at Calls (Up Bets), and Puts (Down Bets)
and Sums the Variance in Prices(Standard Deviation), the result
being the VIX Chart.

Its a strange beast because it does not take direction into account.
Currently the S&P500 is moving up a long time while the VIX
was moving down. Thats because the S&P500 was moving up
in a Sideways manner so the VIX declined. The VIX only moves
down when it detects the absense of Volatility. But now its
beginning to move up from a double bottom from a very low point.
I figure its observing the last gasp of the S&P500 and when it turns
down the VIX will continue to go up because its going to be one big
move down in the S&P500

Watch out for your Pension Funds, all the Cities are broke and
Underfunded.
This upcoming event will further underfund the Pension Funds and
its my opinion that this particular decline is of a secular nature,
meaning a trend change of hugh proportions with negative implications
for Mutual Funds in particular.

IRISH HOUSES DOWN 50-60% IN PRICE

2011-01-24T06:54:00.008-05:00

House Prices in Ireland have dropped on Average 50-60% depending on location.
Asking Prices are still too high it seems and the average Return On Investment
or Rent Yield is around 3-4% and was 6% at the top of the Boom. House prices
dramatically increased from 1996-2001 when house prices went from 86k to 186k.
Prices escalated from there to over 440k for the same house, topping in 2007. While
the Irish are optimistic that there is only 2 more years to endure until they see a
bottom, past crashes such as Japan tell a different story. See Chart. If we follow the
same trajectory as Japan then its going to be 20 years before the bottom is reached.
Same is true for America. Markets and Crashes are not very forgiving, thats why
they call it a Crash, its not that easy to get off the hook and once Markets have you
under water they are not letting go.

I just listened to Bob Precter of Elliot Wave Fame on TV the Worlds greatest

timer of Markets and he figures also that the Major Markets as measured by

the Dow and S & P 500 is over and we are facing an unprecedented decline that

will shake us all to the core. He also figures its over for the Commodity Boom

Re Metals Gold and Silver. He also figures that the Reflationists have it all

wrong and we have gone through that period re Quantative Easing and the next

trend is deflation. Hang onto your hats. The Dow and S & P 500 are the only

indexes which have not turned down as of last weeks action.

It would take a Braveheart to Buy AIB But all the Bad News is out.

Sliding in or Dollar Cost Averaging the Trade would be a winning strategy.

How Does that work?. Keep buying as it goes lower then calculate the

average cost per share.

Allied Irish Banks was Nationalised after a run on Deposits and much

injection of Capital to keep it afloat. AIB and Bank Of Ireland overlent
to Property Developers and Speculators alike. The Irish Government
formed a bad Bank called NAMA in which they moved all the bad or
toxic Loans from the Balance Sheets of the Banks into NAMA and
forced the Irish Taxpayers to pay back that money around $150 Billion
Euros. On top of that the Irish Government further introduced
Austerity measures to further squeeze the Irish pocketbooks to pay for
the mismanagement of the Banks. The Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen
resigned as Party Leader from the Fianna Fail party and there are 2 no
confidence votes being proffered next week in the Irish Parliament, the Dail.
The Green Party and Fianna Fail were in a Coalition Government until
yesterday when the Green Party withdrew from the Government and walked out.
The Government can now be 100% easily defeated by a tabling of a no confidence
vote. Opposition Parties Fine Gael, Labour, are also sayiing they will not support
the Finance Bill put forward in support of the IMF/EU bailouts and when the
Opposition gets into power they will withdraw from any such agreement and
attempt to renegotiate the terms. The following are running for the Fianna Fail
leadership.
Brian Lenihan
Michael Martin
Mary Hanafin
Eamon O'Cuiv Grandson of Eamon De Valera, the hero of the 1916 uprising
and the leader of Michael Collins on which the Movie was based.

BUSTING UNIONS? VIA CHAPTER 9

2011-01-21T22:15:00.005-05:00

What do you think?. Bankruptcy in the City of Vallejo, California
followed failed Collective Bargaining. Given the financial condition of most
Muncipalities and States is it not plausible this may become a trend.
This means that the Police, Firefighters Teachers, and Muncipal Workers
are the main targets. What happens in the absense of these services,
civil unrest, anarchy. Bad enough that their houses are under water with
negative equity, now it seems no income.

Why is it that Governments at all levels can screw up mightly and yet in
their holier than thou attitude hold their employees responsible and treat
them like garbage. Perhaps if somebody done an Audit they would find
the real reasons behind the Bankruptcy. One good guess. They invested
in Morgage Backed Securities and lost their shirts. Just a perusal of thier
Financial Statements shows their Liabilities went from $35million to $239
Million just after the Real Estate Crash. Of course their is lots of footnotes
pertaining to "Other Investments" but they never really explained why the
hugh difference in numbers, its almost like they decided to go the Casino
one day and make a hugh investment in Real Estate and lost.

What scares me and what should scare you is an acceleration of this trend
as the Economy worsens. Next they will want the Bread off your table and
feel justified in doing so.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-06/busting-unions-with-bankruptcy-not-chapter-9-way-commentary-by-joe-mysak.html

Busting Unions With Bankruptcy Isn't Chapter 9 Way: Joe Mysak

By Joe Mysak - Jan 5, 2011 9:00 PM ET

Bloomberg Opinion

Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcies fell in 2010, to six from 10 the previous year.
Who went bust? A couple of sanitary and improvement districts in Nebraska, a hospital in Idaho, a Texas municipal- utility district, a Missouri community-improvement district and a toll road in South Carolina, according to James Spiotto, a partner at Chapman & Cutler in Chicago.
In the municipal market, those entities, most of them used for real-estate development, are typical of the ones who file for Chapter 9.
There are several reasons for that. Keep them in mind as more people champion Chapter 9 as the new best way to fillet public-employee union salaries and benefits.
There’s nothing easy, or convenient, or cheap, or quick, or even predictable about Chapter 9. Those who talk about municipal bankruptcy as if it is any of those things, and the blogosphere is alive with such opinions right now, don’t know what they are talking about.
Even the lawyers who specialize in it don’t recommend municipal bankruptcy.
“Filing for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 9 should be considered a last resort, to be effected only after every effort has been made to avoid it,” wrote John Knox and Marc Levinson, partners at Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP in San Francisco in their 2009 publication, “Municipal Bankruptcy: Avoiding and Using Chapter 9 in Times of Fiscal Stress.” Orrick is counsel to Vallejo, California, which in May 2008 entered bankruptcy and isn’t out yet.
Negotiation Required
To review: states can’t file for Chapter 9. Creditors can’t petition for a municipality to be declared bankrupt; the entity does so voluntarily. Then the municipality has to prove it is insolvent and can’t pay its bills. It also has to show that it has tried to avoid bankruptcy through negotiations.
And municipalities have to be authorized to file. More than half the states don’t allow it. Most of those that do allow municipalities to file for bankruptcy discourage it. Long before public officials take the march up the courthouse steps, states find it in their best interest to intervene.
Now, why do you think that is? Conspiracy theorists may say that it’s because public officials want to protect other public officials and local government in general against the taxpayers’ desire for a less taxed, more unfettered life.
Grow up.
The reason bankruptcy is so rare in the municipal market is because it could blow up the borrowing costs of every government in a state, as well as the state itself.
‘Breathing Space’
“It’s not a strategy,” said Orrick’s Knox in an interview Jan. 4. “All Chapter 9 does is give you breathing space to rearrange your affairs.”
That includes a municipality’s general obligation debt and, yes, collective-bargaining agreements. The bankruptcy judge is there to help the parties negotiate a plan of adjustment, not as some avenging angel intent on gutting the police union.
Full-service municipalities don’t enter Chapter 9 in order to liquidate or to fire the entire department of sanitation. They do so in order to continue as going civic concerns.
“It is important that services essential to the city be able to be provided in an efficient, effective and affordable manner,” Spiotto said in an e-mail this week.
So even if a judge rejects some collective-bargaining agreements, the municipality will still be talking to the people who provide police, fire and sanitation services.
Remain Adults
“The best solution,” Spiotto said, “is a negotiated resolution where both sides retain their adult state, recognize what is reasonable, attainable and affordable and recognize what promises can be lived up to and what cannot.”
I like his reference to “adult state.”
Those who espouse widespread municipal bankruptcy to free America from the tyranny of teachers, librarians, police and firefighters don’t seem to live there. They live in an inflamed fantasyland.
Let’s all go bust! That will show them! As American writer H.L. Mencken once wrote: “There is always a well-known solution to every human problem -- neat, plausible, and wrong.”
Joe Mysak is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: Joe Mysak in New York at jmysakjr@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this column: James Greiff at jgreiff@bloomberg.net

China's Celtic Tiger

2011-01-20T06:18:00.005-05:00

China's Economy, Is it for real or just another Celtic Tiger. In any
Western Economy Housing as has just being proven in Ireland and
the United States is the underpinning force of the Economy. So why
is there 64 Million new homes sitting empty in China. The Chinese
Government had to keep the party going and keep everyone working
to stop civil unrest. This meant building many new completely empty
cities. Sounds to me like the Bubbles of all Bubbles. What do the
Chart say.

Above, China's 600 Stock Index on a weekly basis. It declined in Synch with the
Global economy and actually bottomed much later than Mar 2009 , bottomimg
in November 2009. It looks to be consolidating with another big leg up.

Above , looking at the same Index using a method of charting called
point & Figure we see that the price projection is for the Index is to
rise to around 39,000 from its current 30,000. As a comparison
the Down Jones Industrial using the same method is projected to
rise to just over 13,000 from its current 11,800.

If History Is A Guide Than Chinese Construction Investment Has To Hit The Wall

If the history of Asian development is anything to go by, China is about to hit an investment wall and its loans to the property and construction sectors are about to collapse, according to Nomura.

Nomura on China:

Then there is the overcapacity issue. Other Asian economies (Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand) have hit the wall on investment share of GDP at the seven- to eight-year mark. The building out of railway network has reached art form status. Individuals facing negative real deposit rates save via housing, but prices are declining with an uncertain tail risk and negative liquidity conditions.

Home prices may be declining, but inflation is skyrocketing. Societe Generale think the country should anticipate an "inflation break-out," as monetary policy is now lagging too far behind the current problem.
Even if China does get around to the aggressive rate hikes Societe Generale suggest, Nomura's Fred Goodwin warns, "monetary policy is a blunt tool, prone to accidents."
One thing that now seems likely: the massive growth in construction and real estate loans as a percent of Chinese GDP appears ready to head the opposite way.
See More Charts Of The Day

The Daily Dow, Weekly Dow And The End Of A Journey

2011-01-19T08:38:00.005-05:00

             The Dow is barging ahead to complete its last leg up.
             From the bottom of June/2010 count 5 legs up. You
             will see that Leg5 is almost equal to Leg1 in size.
             Also notice the negative divergence between the current
             price and the indicator underneath the price.
             The Pattern is almost complete but still needs more time.

             Now look at the very top chart (weekly) and once again you
             will see a Negative Divergence. Still needs more time to complete
             and turn down and when it does that will be the beginning of the
             next hugh leg down in the Markets and Global Markets but worse
             than the led down beginning in mid 2007 and ending Mar/2009.

WHO BROKE AMERICA lost jobs,created unemployment,food stamps,social security,pensions,job search,resumes

2011-01-18T08:32:00.007-05:00

VALUE IS IN THE EYES OF THE BEHOLDER

Lets create a Market for IBM stock. Lets say there are exactly 1 million holders of IBM stock
and there all in bed one very fine morning when the Markets open, that is except for exactly 2
owners of the stock who are wide awake and pondering their money problems. One guy
figures, if only I had more money I could buy a pack of smokes, where in the name of god am
I going to find $1 dollar to buy a pack of smokes. Then he remembers he owns exactly one
share of IBM stock. By this time his nicotine fit has driven him up the wall and he is tearing
his hair out, somebody give me a cigarette he shouts. Enough is enough, he's taking no more
bull so he decides to sell his 1 share of IBM stock. He calls his Broker and sais "Sell my 1
share of IBM stock "AT THE MARKET" a legal stock market term for accept anything you
can get, normally the spread is fairly tight except for the other 1 MILLION less 2 owners of
the stock are in bed so there are no standing offers in the Market except for MR Scrooge the
other guy in the story, he's wide awake and wants to buy IBM for little or nothing, so he
already has a standing offer in the Market for exactly 1 share of IBM stock for you guessed it
1$...yes thats right one dollar. The Broker repeats back the order to "Sell At The Market" and
Mr Nicotine Fit sais yes let it fly.

And so there you have it Mr Nicotine Fit has just sold IBM stock for exactly one dollar,
it was previously trading at $100 dollars, yes you read that right 100 dollars. What happened,
how can that happen. Well the other 1 Million owners less 2 were in bed and there was only 2
people in the Market and it only takes 2 people to agree on price or value. Mr Nicotine Fit
established the new value of 1$ for 1 share of IBM stock.

So the other 1 Million guys wake up and check their share price and scream blue murder
" What happened".Therin lies the lesson of you got it "LIQUIDITY"

LIQUIDTY or NO LIQUIDITY is the absense of particpation in a market such
that transactions cannot be concluded.

Thats how America went broke, first starting with Enron, then Long
Term Capital Management, and you got it the Mortgage Market Meltdown
ALL BY THE USE OF DERIVATIVES IN THE PRESENCE OF
NO LIQUIDITY.

The difference between the example of Mr Nicotine fit selling IBM stock which was worth
$100 for $1 a 99% drop and Derivatives are miles apart in the sense that a 5% move will
wipe out any Derivative bet so it doesnt take much imagination to figure out how a 5% move
can happen in any Market like the Mortgage Market. I used to trade Options on Stocks and
Indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and then came the the Crash of October 19th
1987 and the Dow dropped 508 point or 22% in 1 business day. So you see a drop of 22%
would wipe out any Derivative bet 4 times over.

So now you are probly wondering, thats crazy , who invented or allowed these Derivatives
to happen and be traded by Banks with DEPOSITOR'S MONEY I might add.

To understand that we need to travel back in time and the year was 1933, just at the bottom
of the crash which began in 1929.

Crashes or Booms and Busts has always being a feature of Markets going back to the
Roman Empire, and throughout European history including the Tulip Mania and the
Mississipi South Sea Bubble. There is always a different reason for a crash each time, it just
so happens that derivatives were at the root cause, but you must remember at the end of the
day its a game like football and for any game you need a referee that enforces the rules, ah yes
the rules, we forgot about the rules, but who sets the rules.

1933-THE GLASS-STEGALL ACT
The act was brought into play to create a chinese wall between Banking
as we used to know it and Investment Banking meaning Banks at that time
investing in Stocks and Bonds with depositors money which left the banks
broke when the Market crashed in 1929.

It was a very wise act and imposed strict rules on Banks and their limitations
to gamble with depositors money.

Then just like the NFL the Game began, but we need some players, so lets
pick some of the players involved. The NFL has its Rules until their changed
that is, so who changed the rules in the Markets.

WHO CHANGED THE RULES.
The Markets recovered from the crash of 1929 but not before many mini
crashes along the way.The American Economy was chugging along with lots
of Dollars flooding the World. The year is now 1971 and then President
Richard Nixon decided that Gold then pegged at $35 an ounce was an impediment
to progress because there was not enough Gold in Fort Knox to back all the
Dollars flying around the World being held by Foreign Governments so Nixon set
Gold free from the Dollar. Gold soared to over $800 an ounce by 1981 and then
came along the Reagan Era now thats where the real story begins.

REAGAN ERA.
Reagan decided that the de-regulation of Markets was the way to go to enable free
trade so he set out on a course of action that would put America in Peril and bring
it to its knees with the aid of Clinton.

It was during the Reagan Era that it was proposed to repeal or cancel the
Glass-Stegall-Act to allow Banks to invest in exotic instruments which were invented
in 1973 by the financial engineers.
Reagan was being advised by guess who, you wont believe it Milton Friedman and
under Clinton who was advising Clinton, you guessed it Alan Greenspan.
Both economists were from the School Of Rational Expectations in which Markets
find an Equilibrium the way water floats in a pool.

Clinton repealed the Glass-Stegall-Act in 1994 because he agreed fundementally
with Reagan that Markets must find their own equilibrium and so now
THE REAL GAME IS ON, BRING OUT THE PLAYERS.

We need some players so lets create a wee list of the culprits.

STARTING AT THE TOP.
REAGAN AND CLINTON
FEDERAL RESERVE
INVESTMENT BANKS:
JP MORGAN
MORGAN STANLEY
LEHMAN BROTHERS
BEAR STEARNS
AIG
FANNIE MAE
FREDDY MAC
FDIC

So now with the Glass-Stegall-Act removed the investments banks set
their financial engineers to work.
As an aside issue, Alan Greenspan was working diligently as a Director
of JP Morgan before he became Federal Reserve Chairman and he
lobbied very hard indeed to have the Act repealed.

Continued tomorrow.......

American Voters Should Pay Attention To Which Party Is Making or Losing Them Money, Dont Forget Now, Its Your Childrens And Grandchildrens Future, Your Legacy.

2011-01-17T07:41:00.008-05:00

When I woke up this morning I was excited about what subject I will write about today and then I reminded myself. What do Americans care about? There are so many issues to write about, issues that affect the American people to their very core, the destruction of their wealth, job, security, house, dignity, self respect. If their was somebody in your life , in your families life stirring it up so to speak you would waste no time in taking action in pointing this out and correcting that individuals behavior.

Why is then that Americans are so willing to let one political party or another destroy their lives and their families lives, take away their Job and Their House and Dignity. So this blog will be the beginning of a series of Blogs to investigate the facts, not opinion, the facts as to what Political Party is responsible for bringing America to its knees. So here we go. The question is as follows:

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY MADE OR LOST MONEY IN THE MARKETS SINCE 1929 WHICH FEEDS INTO PENSIONS, RETIREMENT FUNDS(IRA'S), SAVINGS, AMERICA'S FUTURE. THE ANSWER IS AS FOLLOWS.
October 14, 2008

Bulls, Bears, Donkeys and Elephants

By TOMMY McCALL

Since 1929, Republicans and Democrats have each controlled the presidency for nearly 40 years. So which party has been better for American pocketbooks and capitalism as a whole? Well, here’s an experiment: imagine that during these years you had to invest exclusively under either Democratic or Republican administrations. How would you have fared?

As of Friday, a $10,000 investment in the S.& P. stock market index* would have grown to $11,733 if invested under Republican presidents only, although that would be $51,211 if we exclude Herbert Hoover’s presidency during the Great Depression. Invested under Democratic presidents only, $10,000 would have grown to $300,671 at a compound rate of 8.9 percent over nearly 40 years.

JOBS, UNEMPLOYMENT, SOCIAL SECURITY, PENSIONS, HEALTH, JOB SEARCH, RESUMES AND HOW ALL CAN BE AFFECTED DRASTICALLY BY THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

2011-01-16T13:24:00.000-05:00

Ever wonder how the Dow Jones Industrials Index comprised of America's biggest Stocks can affect your life.
Well we all got a taste of that in mid 2007 when the Dow and S&P 500 dropped 50%. I have studied the Dow now for 30 years
and one of my old text books 75 years old sais "There goes GM , There goes the American Economy". Well I'm afraid I'll have to revise that to read " There goes the Dow , There goes the American Economy". Well folks its time again unfortunetely to batten the hatches
because a Tsunami is about to hit the Dow. The current Technical state of the Dow Index itself is almost complete as far as patterns go so now its just a matter of a short time to wait until it turns to the downside. This upcoming leg down will be ONE AND A HALF TIMES BIGGER THAN THE 1ST LEG DOWN FROM THE TOP IN 2007 TO THE MAR/2009 BOTTOM. This is indeed a multi year Bear Market and the green shoots you hear about is all pie in the sky. The |Markets always always precede the Economy, it precedes all the Economic numbers such as Unemployment Claims, GDP,GNP,PPI, Factory Orders. Why is that you might ask.?
Well the Market is the wisdom of millions and millions of some of the brightest minds in the worlds so no Government can outwit or outsmart the Market. So to understand whats going on in the Economy we look at the Technicals of the Markets because its all in the prices as they say, so here goes.

After looking at the technical condition of the Dow and all 30 stocks that comprise the Dow I have drawn the following conclusions.

Completed patternss = 17 stocks....stocks can and will turn to the downside any time.

Near Completed Patterns = 9.....will only take maybe 2-3 months

2 runaway stocks......Exxon Mobil and Procter & Gamble.....Big runaway stocks can prolong an incline or decline.

2 Bear Market stocks.....McDonalds.... which speaks volumes about scarce dollars at the consumer level and Cisco which speaks volumes about the unwillingness of corporations to add IT Hardware and Switches to expand. Onlt other ecplanation is that we are experiencing a real paradigm shift away from Corporations expanding their internal Networks in favour of the "Cloud" in which somebody else takes on responsibility for additional heavy traffic and expansion. Corporations have come to realise this is a cheaper approach and you dont need all those technicians and experts the "Cloud" companies provide that expertise.

Below you will see charts of the Dow and its Component 30 stocks.

Some Terms to understand:

Negative Divergence.......Price Higher than Last High and Macd (underneath price) lower than last high......Very Scary On A Weekly Chart Using This Methology.

Positive Divergence......Price Lower Than Last Low and Macd Higher Than Last High.......No Such situation exists since we bottomed in Mar/2009.

As you can see almost all patterns are complete and maybe the Market Treads water for the Ultimate Bad News Scenario, but one thing is certain, all the money to be made has been made now its purely defensive strategies from here on in. In you are waiting to make a killing , forget it , because this time you will lose 60-70% from here if you are fully invested in Stocks , so Beware