Intelligent Football

AFC West: Week 13 Playoff Scene

2009-12-05T17:32:00.002-06:00

The two wildcard teams will most likely be from the AFC West and North. Most AFC division leaders are pretty clear with schedules and multiple game leads. Here the West stands alone with the Chargers holding a one game lead with no distinct tie breaking advantage over the Broncos. The Chargers are playing, as they are prone to do, excellent football heading into the final stretch of the season. They are going to need the momentum with an away game at Dallas, hosting the Bengals and at Tennessee; all of which are playing good football going into the final stretch as well. San Diego's has some heavy work in front of them if they plan on maintaining that one game lead.

The Broncos do not have an easy time ahead of them either if they hope to overcome the Chargers and win the AFC West. While Denver has ended a four game slide with a win at home against the Giants, they have not proven that their troubles are over. With three division games and visits to Indianapolis and Philadelphia, there are opportunities aplenty to offer evidence of being past their troubles. I think Denver is a good match for the Raiders, Chiefs and Eagles; however, the Colts are a different story. The Denver defensive line and secondary match up very well but the question lies in the Indianapolis defense vs the Denver offense. I think Denver has the tools to win this game too, if they can keep General Peyton off balance and get Kyle Orton into a rhythm.

The Kansas City Chiefs have made some strides in improving their team this season and are poised to make good additions in the off-season but are unlikely to win more than two more games this season.

Oakland might beat the Browns. Maybe. Who knows?

AFC East: Week 13ish Playoff Scene

2009-12-05T16:16:00.001-06:00

The AFC East Playoff scene was largely unaffected on Thursday when the Jets eeked by the Bills in Toronto to the tune of 19-13. Let me just say that the NFL.com "airing" of the game is just a little more than a complete disappointment. More game. Less sideline/studio chatter. The game breakdowns are nice (I am a big fan of Mike Mayock), just ill-timed. I do understand that the NFL.com game stream is a marketing tool used for Time-Warner customers and will likely be nixed once Time-Warner carries the NFL Network in its basic programming package but that does not make it less annoying.

Sub-par teams play sub-par football. That is what I saw in the Bills-Jets game and that makes this post short and sweet. The Jets, at 6-6, will host the Falcons, travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to play the Colts and host the Bengals before season's end. I will be surprised if they can win more than one of those three games. The Jets will likely end with an 8-8 record. A good start for first year head coach Rex and rookie passer Mark Sanchez but no playoffs this year.

The Miami Dolphins do not have all the pieces in place yet but you have got to hand it to Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano for making good use of the personnel they do have. However, just as the Jets have roadblocks the Fins host the Patriots, visit the Titans and host the Steelers before season's end. 8-8 is a best case senerio for the Dolphins as well. Time to get a quarterback.

The Bills have some talent but are a mess which leaves the Patriots as the sole playoff contender in the AFC East. The Jaguars are the only team left on their scedule with a .500 record or better at 6-5.

Buffalo fans will be hanging out with the Jets' and Dolphins' fans this year.

AFC North: Week 13 Playoff Scene

2009-12-04T00:01:00.003-06:00

The Playoff picture in the AFC South is pretty murky and is liable to go in, just about, any direction. The Bengals have a two-and-a-half game lead over the Ravens and Steelers but have difficult games coming up at the Vikings and at the Chargers. I would not bet on the Bengals winning in Minnesota but they may fair better playing in San Diego. If they did drop those two games it would put them in at least a half-game lead in the division. Cincinnati would have to lose, in addition to Min and SD, to either the Lions, Chiefs or Jets for anyone else in the division to have a chance at the title. While it is not impossible, it is highly unlikely.

If Cincinnati maintains sole possession of first in the division a potential wild card spot will likely come down to the week 16 Ravens-Steelers rematch in Pittsburgh, providing they each get through the Packers first; the only remaining team, other than each other, that currently holds a winning record.

The Browns... they will be at home.

AFC South: Week 13 Playoff Scene

2009-12-03T15:04:00.000-06:00

We are heading into week 13 of the 2009 NFL season and the Playoff landscape is becoming clearer if not predictable. The AFC South Indianapolis Colts have their division wrapped up with a five game lead over the Jaguars with five games to go. If in the highly unlikely event that the Colts lose the rest of their game and the Jags win-out, the Colts will still have the division. The scenario would result in split head-to-head games, overall record (11-5) and division record (4-2) but the Colts would win the tie-breaker based on the win/loss record versus common opponents. In this case the NFC West (Colts 4-0 vs Jags 1-3). With Tennessee this week and Denver the next, the Colts have their work cut out for an undefeated season.

Of the rest of the AFC South, the Titans appear to have the best momentum going into the final five game stretch; riding a 5 game winning streak. This week's game at Lucas Oil Stadium will be huge in maintaining that momentum. Expect the Titans to have a playoff-like intensity going into this week. If they can win this week the confidence and momentum could carry them through the rest of their schedule leaving the Chargers being the hot team to beat.

If the Jags drop a game to the Texans or the Colts and the Titans win-out the Titans have advantage based on their record versus common opponents. With the Colts, Dolphins and Patriots left on their schedule, a lot has to go right for the Jags to pull out a playoff birth this year. Too much.

Which brings us to the Texans, who have the easiest schedule left in the Division with their most difficult game coming against the Patriots in week 17 but still have to beat a divisional opponent this week before hosting the Seahawks and visiting the Rams. Both the Jags and Titans must drop a division game and Houston must win this week, the Seahawks next week and at the Rams the following week to a have the tie-breaking advantage over the Jags or Titans. I would not take those odds to Vegas.

The playoff picture in the AFC South is not wide-open. With the Colts having already clenched the division and the Texans, Titans and Jaguars all having a viable shot for a wildcard spot there are plenty of decisions yet to be made. The Titans are hot, the Jags have a tough road and the Texans have, what appears to be, the easiest schedule but are nursing a three game slump. But, right now, it is hard not to be a believer in the Titans.

Chargers take Trash-Talk to the Media

2009-11-24T18:03:00.003-06:00

I am a Denver Broncos fan that has lived in eastern Kansas for way too long. I have been to several Broncos-Chiefs games at Arrowhead Stadium and I watch Broncos' games, occasionally, at a bar. I am an avid and energetic fan and I happily to respond to and initiate a little pre-game and game-time trash-talking. I would go so far as to describe myself as more-than-a-little antagonistic. During games, I am decked out in my Elway or Bailey jersey and my bright, orange Broncos hat. My allegiance is not unclear; however, I will often and loudly proclaim my admiration for the opponent's incredible ability. Usually, after they fumble or throw an interception or make a bonehead play. Being who I am raises the ire of the majority of those around me and I get as much as I give, times ten. I ask for it to be certain, but once the game is over so is my antagonistic behavior. I give props or commiseration as the situation dictates. I make no excuses for a Broncos loss nor do I contradict those who do because I am aware of my own need to come to terms with the heartbreaking losses. They are all heartbreaking.

What I cannot abide is a poor winner. You know the one. He keeps talking, in your face, after the game is over; rubbing it in, pretending superiority to you that he might, for a short time, overcome the perpetual feelings of utter inadequacy he experiences every day. The same guy that would start a fight with you if turn-about were fair play. Which brings me to my point: the San Diego Chargers are the worst of these offenders.

Did Josh McDaniels talk a little smack? I am sure he did. When the Broncos beat the Chargers a few weeks ago did Denver Broncos players or coaches say anything at all negative about the Chargers' players or coaches? Nope. The only people crying to the media are in the Chargers' organization. Why, then, after a solid victory, did San Diego Charger players criticize play-calling and a little trash-talking that they were equally involved in if not the initiators. The loudest accusers are usually the most guilty. Their behavior is representative of ?!$$ poor sportsmanship and professionalism and is demonstrative [duh-mon-struh-tiv] of immaturity and a fragile ego. A cultural breeding ground for for whiners and self-destructive behavior. What is truly unfortunate is that there are likely many mature and confident individuals on the Chargers roster that are associated with the stigma that the few perpetuate. Disappointingly, the "grown-ups" in the organization, i.e. A.J. Smith and Norv Turner, are allowing this kind of culture to continue; however, based on the recent denunciation of his own team to the media, I would even go so far as to say that A.J. Smith perpetuates this kind of behavior himself and represents his team accurately.

Disgusting. The Chargers demean their victory with their behavior.

Congratulations to the San Diego Chargers. A well played game and a solid victory. You earned it.

What is the result of this immaturity in the media? My arch-nemesis: sensationalistic, inaccurate and irresponsible reporting. I needed this much time to overcome my desire to verbosely and ineloquently denounce the perpetrating media outlets, which will not get free advertising from me by either putting their name in print or a link to their garbage. I would not even read or watch the crap if I were not attempting to shine some light on the ignorance that they breed. My only regret is that this was a Broncos game; offering the self-justifying a chance to impugn my objectivity and thereby disregard truth.

What is a good headline based on this story? How about: Chargers Win Reveals their Fragile Egos, or: Insecure Chargers Trounce Beleaguered Broncos. Those are evidently accurate statements for an organization with such little class.

Destro's Bitter Disappointment & Week 11 Predictions

2009-11-21T18:13:00.008-06:00

Ok, so I am batting .500. Well, more like .538 since I did not take a shot at the Chiefs-Raiders game. Either way, not a very good foray into game predictions. In my defense, I doubt that many of our illustrious 'pundits' faired much better. On another note, Washington's win over Denver would have been less bitter if Kyle did not have his best first-half ever only to be sidelined for the rest of the game and likely this week's game as well. Other bitter disappointments from last week:

1. Billy B's roll of the die coming up snake-eyes.

2. The Eagles imitation of a run-stopping defense.

3. The Dallas Cowboy's Series of Unfortunate Events

4. and lastly, my friend. He asked me what the image was on the middle tab in the upper-left corner of my blog. That hurt me deeply. I am not sure we will be able to continue being friends. Oh well, I still have my keeper-of-the-archives; Soundwave.

This week's special Thank You is going to the NFL Network for allowing me to watch, legally, and in english, Thursday night's game between the beleaguered Panthers and the re-surging-Ricky's Dolphins. Whew, Ricky sure did look good. Well, my magic eight ball seems to be busted so perhaps I will fair better this week attempting to forge semi-meaningful statistics and luck into a semblance of gypsy-like fortune telling instead. Where are the gypsies these days, anyway?

15. Browns @ Lions

This game makes me think of the Denver Bears games I used to go to as a kid. Minor League. I would rather have watched the Raiders-Chiefs game last week than even think about this one. Well, let me put it this way: Lions are going up and the Browns are going down. I am not going to spend the time here getting into the evidence. Maybe if I have a couple hours to blow I will bore you with the details another time.

Lions: 13, Browns: 3ish

14. Saints @ Buccaneers

There is no reason that the Saints cannot pull this one out with relative ease; however, the Saint's offense has been in a little bit of a slump, allowing more sacks and Drew is throwing more interceptions. If the Bucs can force and capitalize on turnovers, interceptions particularly, they will have a fighting chance in this game. I do expect the Saints to continue their winning streak, though.

Saints: 34, Buccaneers: 17

13. Bengals @ Raidahs

The Raiders defense has the capability to disrupt the Bengal offense but I just do not think the Raider coaching staff really knows how to really prepare their team or adjust throughout a game. The switch to Gradkowski was smart move if not poor timing; it is not going to be enough. The multidimensional facet of this year's Bengals give them an edge over most teams in the league this year.

Bengals: 24, Raiders: 13

12. Steelers @ Chiefs

There is nothing the Chiefs will be able to do. The Steelers are going to eat the Chief's offensive line for a late lunch on Sunday. I expect Big Ben to have another big day.

Steelers: 35, Chiefs: 3

11. Bills @ Jaguars

I have never been a big fan of the mid-season coaching change and I expect the Bills are going to still be reeling from the move and ill-prepared for the Jags rushing attack. The Jags have begun to solidify their identity and will continue to gain momentum this week with a decisive win.

Jaguars: 17, Bills: 6

10. Seahawks @ Vikings

Matt Hasselbeck, in my opinion, was never a quality starting quarterback in this league and I have not seen enough evidence to convince me otherwise. Not that it matters. The Viking defensive line is frightening. The Viking offense is frightening. The Vikings are frightening.

Vikings: 28, Seahawks: 17

9. Cardinals @ Rams

Hmm. This one snuck up here to number nine. I am too lazy to fix it, so here it will remain. The Rams are not improving, so do not let last week's interception frenzy fool you. The Cardinals are going to pick them apart.

Cardinals: 45, Rams: 13

8. 49ers @ Packers

My magic eight ball is broken and the gypsies are lost in time and space. Does anyone know which teams are going to show for either club? I do not. Aaron Rodgers is a quality quarterback with very good receivers, but man-oh-man where is the offensive line? On the other side, the quarterback position leaves much to be desired, while moving Isaac Bruce to the second team was all but idiotic; however, Mr. Gore will tear up a defense at least as well as Adrian Peterson can. Do not laugh. It is true. The 49ers are going to pull this on out off the back of Frank Gore.

49ers: 20, Packers: 17

7. Redsikins @ Cowboys

I hurt just looking at the Redskins; hurt to the core. It may be that the 'Skins have pulled themselves together, I do not believe it, but the Cowboys are more physical. As long as Romo has a half-decent day the Cowboys are going to win without much trouble.

Cowboys: 33, Redskins: 7

6. Titans @ Texans

Just another difficult match to call. The Texans are coming off of their bye week, well rested and injury-free (with the glaring exception of TE Own Daniels), while the Titans are on a scoring frenzy. The Titans, in their three games following their bye-weeks have scored 30, 34 and 41 points; defeating their opponents by an average of 16 points. Chris Johnson has been racking up the yards in those wins, also. With 1,091 yards and a more impressive 6.4 yards per carry after nine games, he is on pace to end the season with 1,940 yards. Could Chris be the next 2,000-yard-club inductee? The last time these two met, in week two, it was a three point game and Chris ran the ball 16 times for 197 yards and caught nine passes for an additional 87 yards. Now that I have suitably gushed about Chris Johnson, Andre Johnson. Must more be said? Who can cover this guy? Charles Woodson or Champ or Nnamdi? Maybe. Maybe.

Titans: 34, Texans: 31

5. Eagles @ Bears

This game features two of the strongest arms in the League. Streaks of brilliance, mediocrity and horridness have come to define both of these rock-tossers. This is weakness vs. strength. While Jay can put the ball anywhere, he has to do so throwing it at Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown. Not a comforting prospect. There is more chance for Jay to beat his interception-in-a-game record he set last week than for the Bears earning a victory.

Eagles: 24, Bears: 20

4. Jets @ Patriots

Rex has been quieter this time around and with good reason. The Pats are coming off of a hard loss and are unlikely to be pull any punches against a division rival. I would not bet on Revis vs. Moss matchup to swing in Revis's favor; however, if the Jets defense can hold true to form and maintain that league leading yards per game they can keep it close and have a chance to make one more play than the Pats. I do not think so either.

Patriots: 20, Jets: 19

3. Falcons @ Giants

Unless the Falcons have become miraculously good at stopping the run this is going to be a tough game to win. While Matt Ryan is not having a terrible year, he is certainly not playing at the same level as he was last year; however, the Giants, coming off their bye-week, are weak in the cornerback position and will likely play a lot of two deep zone which should open up some opportunities for Michael Turner to make some big plays. Also, the Giants have not gotten to the quarterback nearly as often as in years past, tallying only 20 sacks, and are going to be without team captain and leader, MLB Antonio Pierce. Sorry, Gary, I do not thing the Giants are going to have what it takes this week.

Falcons: 23, Giants: 17

2. Chargers @ Broncos

I believe this is the most important game being played this week but I think the next one will have the most entertainment value for all football fans. Division rival games are hard to predict. Denver has been stinking it up the last couple of weeks, but I do not thing the Chargers have the Baltimore or Pittsburgh defense. Injuries are a part of the game and no excuse for a loss; however, Kyle's injury was the key to Washington's victory last week and I expect Denver's quarterback play to be the deciding factor in this game as well. The Denver defense is still good, very good and RIvers is still going to be dodging defenders to make throws. So far, Simms looks to be the guy for Denver.

Broncos: 31, Chargers: 26

1. colts @ Ravens

I expect, as I usually do from Baltimore, intense defensive effort. The Baltimore squad would like nothing more than to eliminate another undefeated team and if you do not believe it is a motivating factor for the Ravens, seek immediate psychiatric help. I thought the Colts were going to go down last week. Wrong. This week? A missed two point conversion for the tie at the end settles it.

Ravens:34, Colts:32

Week 10 in the NFL: Predictions of Noxiousness

2009-11-13T14:07:00.015-06:00

I would like to send a special thank you out to the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers for setting such low expectations for this week's line up which promises to make us long for our next dentist visit. Do not schedule that appointment just yet. We do have a game or two worth paying attention to.

I longed for an adjective that would aptly describe the majority of this weekend's match-ups and all I could come up with was noxious. There was a strong start, with less than 600 yards of net yards and 6 turnovers between them the Bears and 49ers have earned the right to top, or bottom, my list.

15. Bears, 4-5 @ 49ers, 4-5:

If I had written this before the game it is unlikely this game would be here but they have earned it. I have watched Jay closely over the last couple of years and there is no guarantee of victory when the ball is in his hands; however, he did make me feel better about Kyle Orton's performance last week. In Jay's defense, he did spread the ball around. He completed passes to seven different receivers and five different defenders and threw for 397 yards; 307 for the Bears and 90 for the 49ers. Alex Smith was comparably [kom-per-uh-buhl-lee] anemic with a killer 118 yards and an INT. I submitted a copy of the game to America's Funniest Home-videos.

14. Chiefs, 1-7 @ Raiders, 2-6:

I thought about an all but guaranteed blow out to fill this spot but the good chance for a double shutout is just too much to pass up. Has that ever happened before? Unfortunately this will be the only late afternoon game televised in my area, so I may watch it but more because of the nature of its repulsiveness, like staring at something so hideous you... just... cannot... look... away. Kind of like sumo mud wrestling or NASCAR.

Chiefs: 0, Raiders: 0

13. Saints, 8-0 @ Rams, 1-7:

The 28th ranked defense vs. the 1st ranked offense? Exciting.

Saints: 42, Rams: 3

T12. Buccaneers, 1-7 @ Dolphins, 3-5:

This game and the next two are like the jugglers and acrobats you see prior to entering the circus tent; sideshows. Not even good enough to be opening acts. This is strength vs. weakness as the Fins are a top five rushing team and the Bucs are number two at not-stopping the rush. So, the easy pick would be...

Dolphins: 17, Buccaneers: 10

T12. Bills, 3-5 @ Titans, 2-6:

Ugh. Why? Never mind. Vince uses his ~~feat~~ feet to pull this one out of at ~~his~~ the end. ..ahem.. ~~his~~ the very end.

Titans: 10, Bills: 5 (three earned, two given)

T12. Ravens, 4-4 @ Browns, 1-7:

I like the Ravens in this one... Ok, ok, stop laughing. Leave it to Mangini to completely dismantle a team through arrogance and disrespect. Consider this ever-popular limerick:

There once was a coach named Tom,
who had all the tact of an AMRAAM.
His players complained.
He was restrained.
And now they think he's the bomb.

Dear Dictator Mangini,
It is in your best interest to learn from this Super Bowl winning coach. You do not have much time left and the Ravens are going to steal your lunch money on Monday night while the ESPN commentators(other than Jon Gruden) confess their love to Brett Favre... again.

Ravens: 34, Browns: 0 (zero, only because it cannot be a negative number).

T12. Lions, 1-7 @ Vikings, 7-1:

I almost had this game at number nine. Whew, another disaster averted. Too bad the Lions wont be able to say that, Darn you Matt Millen and your haunting specter of utter and complete failure.

Vikings: 28, Lions: 10 (I think the Lions start the game with the ten points, right?)

8. Broncos, 6-2 @ Redskins, 2-6:

I really wanted to rate this one higher but, really? In the grand scheme of things, how could I? Yes, the Broncos offense is a tad lethargic and I am disappointed in Kyle Orton's progress but they can do what needs to be done. This is a good opportunity for a bounce-back game. After two straight schoolyard beat-downs the Broncos will not be overlooking anyone. Redskins. Um. I got nothing.

Broncos: 24, Redskins: 3

7. Jaguars, 4-4 @ Jets, 4-4:

Rex has done some good things with the Jets and it is not unheard of for high potential rookie quarterbacks to have a year of poundings and failures. Ask Peyton or John. However, if I still had a twenty sided die I would roll it to see if I could tell you what Jags team might show up. Since I will not admit to continued ownership of said item and neither team seems to be able to stop the run and both quarterbacks are game changers, but for the wrong team, we will go with the team who scores more than it gets scored upon. The numbers do not lie.

Jets: 20, Jaguars: 13

6. Falcons, 5-3 @ Panthers, 3-5:

The Falcons have all the tools and the Panthers have Steve Smith. I would call it a wash if there were someone to throw it to Steve. Sorry, Jake. I like you but your time has passed. Expect the Dirty Birds to play the run with a bit more intensity which should make the difference in this one.

Falcons: 24, Panthers: 21

5. Seahawks, 3-5 @ Cardinals, 5-3:

Neither team has a significant running game and both Warner and Hasselbeck have comparable [kom-per-uh-buhl] numbers. The difference will be as the difference has always been, Larry and Anquan.

Cardinals: 27, Seahawks: 17

4. Cowboys, 6-2 @ Packers, 4-4:

If the Cowboys can pressure Aaron Rodgers, which should not be difficult, the Pack will be in for a long, long afternoon. I am pretty sure I saw DeMarcus Ware is frothing at the mouth in anticipation of doubling his sack total for the year. Nope. Not even a reach.

Cowboys: 26, Packers: 20

3. Eagles, 5-3 @ Chargers, 5-3:

This is a good match-up across the board. McNabb is explosive and accurate with the deep ball, if no where else. Rivers has no protection but is not phased mentally by the continual harassment whereas McNabb seems to lose his poise. This comes down to the 'ifs'. If the Eagles can get the protections right and keep their quarterback upright the Eagles come away with the victory. If not, not. I do not think they will but I have a vested interest in the Chargers failure.

Eagles: 33, Chargers: 30 in overtime. Do not disappoint me.

2. Patriots, 6-2 @ Colts, 8-0:

Of course this is going to be a popular game. That is why it got the number two spot but I think it will not be a very good game. Colts have the offense but not the defense to match strides with the Pats.

Patriots: 34, Colts: 17

1. Bengals, 6-2 @ Steelers, 6-2:

This is a high power division game. You are darn right it is going to be number one on the docket. Here are the 5th and 6th scoring defenses in the league, the 1st and 2nd rush defenses and each is a top ten in either passing offense or rushing offense. This should have a playoff feel to it and I have no idea who is going to pull it out.

Bengals: 18, Steelers: 17 A two point conversion with seconds left in the fourth for the win. Why? Because the Steelers beat the Broncos and it is my blog.

Parity Available; Good Ownership Required

2009-11-09T19:17:00.012-06:00

Parity, the elusive mistress of the National Football League. Oh, she is available. She is not even trying to play hard-to-get. Not at all. The bed is covered with rose pedals, the candles are all lighted, Barry White is setting the tone and Parity is lying across the bed with her head resting in her palm, dressed in her sexiest negligee. Everything is ready for the NFL and Parity to consummate their relationship. However, Parity is just another woman scorned because her suitor does not understand her value nor is he able to be what she needs. A terrible shame. Terrible.

Pretty, eh? No? Fine.

Am I missing something regarding all this talk about the death of parity in the NFL? How is parity dead when, of the undefeated, only the Saints have beaten good opponents (Giants, Eagles and Falcons) soundly and remain undefeated? The Colts, while undoubtedly a quality team, have had little opportunity to overcome many challenging opponents, who have a combined record of 26 and 39; a winning percentage of .400. Remove the Texansand Cardinals from the Colts docket and the remaining six teams have sixteen wins between them. With four of the Colts' games won by two, three or four points, one play could have changed the "W" to an "L". That one play, either way, is the heart of parity.

The Buccaneers got those plays against the Packers on Sunday and now Tampa Bay's opportunity for another piece of NFL history and the chance to be mentioned in the same breath as the ~~illustrious~~ infamous Detroit Lions has been forever lost - this year. Lonely Lions. Parity does not preclude the creation of "dynasty" nor its converse, the Lions. Sorry, Lions fans but it is Matt Millen's fault, not mine. Parity is merely the potential each NFL Franchise is offered through the Owners Revenue Sharing Agreement and the Salary Cap (a real salary cap, not the imagined one MLB has.)

Each owner has a team with equitable resources at their disposal, now it comes down to choices. You can choose to keep Matt Millen on as VP of Personnel and allow him blame the very coaches he hired or you can see that all of his personnel decisions were terrible from coaches to players; year after year. Or better yet, you can choose to make personnel decisions long after the complexity of the game has passed your diseased mind by. Ahem-Al Davis-Cough. Or, you can choose to humiliate and alienate your head coach, inadvertently warning away any and all quality coaching candidates from your team. What is the moral of the story?

NFL Franchise Owners are the hub of the wheel for their team. If he, she or they are not spinning in the right direction then neither is that team. The days of the personnel decision maker (GM, VPoP or VPoO) being independent of, or worse - supervisor to, the coaching staff are long over. The wrong coach, be he the offensive line, secondary, either coordinator or the head coach, can be the difference between winning and losing. The Ravens lost their defensive coordinator and their defense is struggling. The feud between AJ Smith and Marty Schottenheimer was the beginning of an end for the Chargers. Matt Millen's crack-like need to hire and fire head coaches while drafting wide receivers. Conversely, the Saints hire a new head coach and they are getting scarily good. Falcons and Cardinals too. In a single offseason the Broncos go from worst to first on defense because the internal business structure allows for better hiring decisions by eliminating the power struggle between front office staff and the head coach. Winning owners find ways to build winning organizations. Average owners get lucky now and again while bad owners have teams that should be for sale.

LINK to a short paper I wrote arguing the NFL business structure's superiority to MLB's to be the cause of football's elevation to the rank of National-Pastime. It is rather dry and boring.
LINK to the NFL's current Collective Bargaining Agreement that is about to expire. This is much drier and boring-er.

Ravens Dominate Broncos, Soundly

2009-11-02T13:11:00.010-06:00

In an unfortunate series of events the Baltimore Ravens took the Denver Broncos to task for four straight quarters; without quarter. It was a game where, as a Broncos fan, all I could do was wonder. Wonder how the Ravens could have 30 defenders on the field at a time. Wonder how "Slippery" Joe Flacco got out of so many sacks. Wonder why the Denver receivers were giving the Baltimore secondary piggy-back rides. Wonder how the Broncos even got a single touchdown. It was an enormous effort by a beleaguered Ravens team, especially the defense, to take back control of their season. Well, done Ravens. Well done.

There was not that feeling of intense competition that I have had in the previous six games. Bad juju. It was the notion of defeat to a team who wants it so much more. Then, the first play of the game. Sack. For the first game this year the Broncos did not own the line of scrimmage on offense. Ben Hamilton was man-handled all afternoon by Trevor Pryce and Haloti Ngata leading to Kyle Orton spending way too much of his time staring at the sky. The Broncos could get nothing going on offense all game long posting an incredible 3.4 yards per play average and per pass average. And to compliment all of that, a 3.5 yards per rush average and 23% third down conversion rate. Baltimore threw a monkey wrench into Denver's methodical offense.

I expected the game to be decided in the fourth quarter. I was wrong. It was over by the end of the third. Denver's defense had been hanging in there just fine but losing the Time of Possession battle by more than seven minutes will wear down the most conditioned defense. I am sure allowing Baltimore to convert more than 60% of their third downs did not help either. I know Josh McDaniels insists that showing game tape will help his team see their need for improvement; however, there is nothing like a sound beating to bring you back to reality.

Missing Link Found in Minnesota!

2009-10-25T14:36:00.029-05:00

In an unprecedented archeological discovery, an age old fossil rose up from the dead and led a gang of Purple People Eaters on a rampage throughout the United States. It is like watching Jurassic Park 3… or is it 4? I lose count. Worse news, it seems that no horses, young or old, nor holy men will be in any position to deter this natural disaster in the foreseeable future. Spare yourselves the agony of seeing the aged and unnaturally jerking limbs doing what no human could possibly do, enduring what no human could possible endure. Hide your eyes from this horrible beast lest he, or it, steal your soul.

In a post, post retirement move Brett Favre suddenly re-unretired by joining a Vikings squad that was said to be missing only a quality quarterback in order to be a championship caliber team. Whoever said that is coming away smelling like fresh coffee first thing in the morning.

Mmm… Coffee… Black, please.

Through the first six weeks of the year (and through half-time of the MIN@PIT), Brett is looking to be in prime form averaging championship-potential numbers. If he continues tossing near %70 completions and average a 109.5 passer rating, currently third in the league in both categories, and Adrian stays healthy there is no telling who will be able to stop the Vikings this year (Broncos vs. Vikings Super Bowl?).

This year Brett is surrounded by talent. There is no doubt that the man with the poorly enunciated last name of Favre can work miracles, just ask the 49ers; however, the Vikings have won games on the ground with Adrian Peterson, with the defense featuring Jared Allen and with the special teams star, Percy Harvin. This is a team playing at a very high level in all phases of the game (with the exception of the secondary play against the Ravens.) and will be a challenge for every opponent they face this year, possibly all the way to a February date in Miami.

Orton not a Franchise Quarterback? Says Who?

2009-10-21T12:31:00.030-05:00

Who defines the required skill set of a "quality" starting Quarterback in the NFL? Do the same people define the requisites to be a "Franchise" quarterback? I believe the majority of the NFL league executives, experts and fans have lost perspective on what makes a good quarterback. Quarterback could be replaced with team, but for the sake of brevity we will narrow the focus.

Last year I watched Jay Cuter develop in his role as a QB with growing dismay. At the end of the day, wins and losses are the only meaningful statistic in the NFL; however, even over the first six games of 2008, where Denver went 5-1, a feeling of foreboding was growing in my mind. It was not the defense, though they were reason enough for concern, it was Jay continually forcing the ball down field into double-coverage or worse when much better options were staring him in the face. A better decision could have been hitting an underneath option crossing, wide-open, 15 yards right in front of him and wait for the opposing defense to provide that shot down field. A moderate attempt at ball control could very well have created a different outcome for the season. Defense was an obvious liability in 2008 for the Broncos and it was no secret. Perhaps it was play-calling and coaching that led to the repetitive exposure of the weak Denver defense, but whatever the case it was in the best interest of the team to hold the ball when possible.

By all appearances, Jay was less concerned about winning and more concerned about gaudy numbers or getting the ball to a particular receiver; however, team must work as a whole to win, even if that means babysitting the weaker aspects of the team. An offense must support the defense and vice-versa. By continually throwing the ball into coverage, resulting in 17 interceptions, Jay left his already porous defense in compromising short field situations inadvertently helping opposing offenses win football games. Jay certainly was not the source of pathetic defensive play, to be sure; nor was he the reason Denver lost eight games, he just did the team no favors with his high risk game. Watching Jay I hoped, each week, that this would be the week he made better reads, better decisions and threw to the open guy no matter who it was. My hope was in vain. I do not know about his study habits or if he has no interest in improving from his reckless playing style but what I do know is that he did not noticeably improve throughout the 2008 season. Even in Chicago he is keeping true to form; being on pace to throw for more than 25 interceptions this year.

Josh McDaniels, it appears, was not impressed, either. Jay is in Chicago; I hope they are happy. Kyle Orton is in Denver; I should think we are happy. The much maligned Kyle Orton has quietly, yet decisively turned the punditry into avid disciples. Kyle Orton, however, is still not considered a long term "solution" for a starting QB by, well, anyone with a platform in which to cast their opinion into the wind (here are a few notable exceptions: CHFF, MHR, BT). On the other hand, history has always been a strong factor in regards to future expectations and so the majority fans and media have only low-to-moderate expectations for Kyle. And so, considering the cursory attention paid to the contrast between situations, few could have predicted positive results.

Past performance can be a good performance indicator; however, the variables must be taken into consideration to get an accurate picture. When considering Kyle Orton's future performance we need to recognize Josh McDaniels as a variable along with Denver's more talented offensive line and receiving corps. All of these factors have been strong advantages for Kyle through week six. Kyle appeared to be an average player in Chicago even if he did win football games. Now, he is in a situation that suits him with good coaching, good protection and an arsenal of weapons at his disposal. None of which were present in his previous situation. There is a QB who has some parallels to Kyle. Shall we meet him? Let's.

Allow me to introduce you to a trifling quarterback by the name of Joe Montana.

...[GASP]...

For those of you that have decided to read on we will examine the similarities between 'Cool Joe' (not to be confused with Joe Cool) and Kyle Orton, during his time as the Broncos' quarterback through week six. Joe Montana was drafted in the 3rd round, 82nd overall, of the NFL draft. Joe was not highly touted quarterback coming out of college because of his lack of measurable skills and despite his collegiate success. Sound familiar? Kyle was a 4th round pick, 106th overall, and led Purdue to several bowl-games, running a spread offense. Neither was phenomenal on the outset of their respective NFL careers, though both were upgrades compared to their respective incumbents. Both Joe and Kyle were recognized for their potential contributions by intelligent, offensive minded coaches that were noted for finding all the right role-players to make a great team and both quarterbacks, to this point, thrive in a ball-control, pass heavy, spread-offense

Ok, heartwarming story, right? Good point. How about some statistical comparisons? Good. Me too.

Joe Montana led the 1981 San Francisco 49ers to 13-3 record and a victory in Super Bowl XVI so, we will compare game averages to get a good picture of how, in 2009 through week 6, Kyle measures up against Joe during his first of several championship seasons. The chart below is a comparison of completion percentage (Comp %), average passing yards per pass attempt (YPA), passing yards per game (YPG), touch downs per pass attempt percentage (TD%), interception per pass attempt percentage (INT%) and passer efficiency rating.

As I am sure you noticed there are some striking similarities that could very well translate into some long term success for Kyle. Montana was not asked to do everything, as quarterbacks often are, and the Broncos have similar expectations of Kyle. It is early in the season and some challenges for the Broncos are still looming but if Kyle can continue to put up these kinds of numbers one day he is going to wake up as an elite franchise quarterback.

For all of the NFL's measurement standards and skill requirements there are still some serious flaws in the widely accepted systems of player analysis. The defining characteristics for good quarterbacks are far more elusive than have been advertised and will require a very different approach than we have allowed ourselves to believe for so long.

Jim Zorn, Humiliated

2009-10-21T12:27:00.024-05:00

The Washington Redskins have apparently embarrassed themselves through the humiliation of Head Coach Jim Zorn. After this Sunday's loss to the offensive line-less Kansas City Chiefs Head Coach Jim Zorn met with Redskins' VP of Football Operations, Vinny Cerrito and learned he is no longer allowed to call plays on game-day and has to sit facing the corner for an hour. Well, just the play-calling part was reported, but you never know.

The decision to remove Zorn's play-calling responsibilities is an absolutely despicable move, in my uneducated, ignorant-of-any-detailed opinion, and I am having difficulty understanding how this decision could possibly result in a better season for the 'Skins.

//Begin Speculation
Did they ask Zorn to resign and he refused? It seems possible that Cerrito was attempting to force Zorn out to avoid paying the remainder of his contract. Prior to the 2008 season Zorn signed a five year contract reported to be worth $15 Million. It sounds like they might be trying to save a little cash to pay their next coaching candidate.
//End Speculation

I really can not think of any other reason they make such debilitating move for both team and coach in the "benching" of Zorn on game-days. The pit falls of this decision are worse than any potential gain, whatever that might be.

1. If I were attempting to attract coaching candidates for next year this has to be a set back of debilitating proportions. Who would want to come in and sit in Zorn's time-out chair?

2. Even if there are very good reasons for the move the appearance of it is unprofessional and a PR debacle. Ever work for a boss who undermined your authority? Good times, eh?

3. The players are bewildered at this move, too and are looking for something to hang their hats on. The 'Skins look terrible to be sure, but how does leaving Zorn hamstrung improved the situation? How is this not making it worse?

Jim Zorn shot the 'Skins in the foot, Cerrito just put them in the ground. Firing Jim would be doing the entire organization a favor, including Jim Zorn. Cerrito may consider resigning, himself.

What Kyle? Question the 'Pundits'?

2009-10-21T10:52:00.025-05:00

I don't think I have ever seen an NFL player, whether underneath the pressure of a cover zero blitz or the bombardment of questions in a post-game media blitz, as cool at Kyle Orton.

Over the years, NFL players and coaches have developed the art of offering vague, vanilla platitudes during those most exciting of post game pressers, sideline updates and locker-room interviews; however, a player - and sometimes a coach - gets caught with the emotion of the game on his sleeve. Scavenger like, the media senses the weakness, attacks and, like a pack of hyenas swarm their prey to surround and bombard their target with questions designed to expose the weakness in the player's, already waning, self-control. Make no mistake, the media does, in fact, prey on sensationalism. Once the breach is complete the story is rehashed over and over again in weeks of articles, radio show discussions, fan blogs and television interviews and, if the fates are cruel and no new sensational stories arise, these media frenzies can last for months to the exclusion of relevant and useful information. (Jay Cutler to Chicago fiasco, anything real or imagined from Brett Favre or every moment of TO's life in football ring any bells?)

Kyle Orton who, when asked if he ever heard about the popular opinion of him while he was in Chicago, answered in his most mild mannered way [DOC of Transcript],

“Yeah, it is tough not to be aware of it, especially in a town like Chicago. You are going to know, but if you are talking good or talking bad, I don’t think they have got a very good idea of what my real job actually is. It doesn’t bother me one way or the other.”

As most public opinion is perpetuated by local and national media outlets, it is not difficult to deduce what Kyle means when he says "they". In an a single, seemingly-innocent remark Kyle Orton clearly demonstrated a single hidden truth. The large majority of the people have very little idea of what is really going on.

The general public, fed by the "analysis" of the media, are led to draw various conclusions built on the false premises of assumption, contextless quotation and in the case of Jamie Dukes, wild guesses and meaningless drivel. First of all most information is distributed by reporters, these folks have no special insight or training in regards to understanding the sport they are reporting about. Furthermore, truth, in the media, is nearly impossible to deduce since anything mentioned is, in its purest form, second hand information. Pair that with the fact every media outlet has its own agenda, whether it be monetary, political or a market niche, requires the audience to glean each valuable nugget of information from agenda and bias. Lastly, major media outlets will focus on perpetuating sensationalism and colorful commentary rather than accurate and and objective analysis.

The media darlings of the NFL's pundits and prognosticators are ever waxing and waning with the mood of the nation. What does that mean? It means the vast majority of NFL media coverage is going to cater to the target market's mood. That makes sense to me. After all, media outlets gain when we read, hear or see what they produce. My personal favorite type of writers spew forth what can only be considered deliberately blatant criticisms. While not universally true, these kind of writers are inciting a response from their local markets. Online newspaper columns get millions of hits because good writers say terrible things and incite thousands of comments on each of their websites. I'd bet those sites generate revenue on a per-click basis or some similar variation of revenue generation. They treat us as suckers. We prove them right.

Solutions! Every NFL team has an amateur blog site or two (or more) that has an intelligent view with insightful information on their respective team. Often times they will have a competent individual visit training camps, examine the nuances of position and technique by breaking down games; watching each play multiple times in order to examine the various positions. These folks understand the difference between good quarterback footwork and "happy feet", recognize a half-back with great vision and one without, can determine which receivers run good, crisp routes and can point out the poor route runner who does not get in and out of his cuts cleanly and, lastly, he or she will be able to recognize when a defensive player is in or out of position on any given play. This is the kind of knowledge in which a fan may gain a good understanding of the game, an understanding that your average reporter does not have. We can begin to learn about the very foundations that make good football players and build good football teams.

While I have no privileged information, I believe these same principles are what let to Jay Cutler's estrangement with the Denver Broncos' first year Head Coach, Josh McDaniels. For example Jay had a habit of throwing off his back foot which often led to under thrown balls and interceptions and he regularly threw into double coverage. Setting your feet, making your reads and then throwing to your open receiver are some fundamental aspects quarterbacking and are taught from Pop-Warner on. I was not disappointed to see him go even if I was a little unsure of what the Broncos received in the form of Kyle Orton. Jay has an immense amount of physical talent and natural ability but until he recognizes that his reliance on talent without practicing sound fundamentals will cause him to be as much a liability to his team as an asset.

As is true in all aspects of life, we need to educate ourselves by digging for the information we really need to understand what we love. I do not think it is the mainstream media's intention to mislead or feed us misinformation; however, with agendas independent of the perpetuation of relevant facts and no more understanding of the sport than the layman we will need to find our own answers. If we continue taking someone else's word, not knowing their credentials, we are just duping ourselves.

The Mile High Report and Bronco Talk are an great informational and entertaining read and respond blogs for Broncos fans. Also, Cold, Hard Football Facts has great statistical information with colorful commentary to complement it. Also, if ESPN's Adam Schefter reports it consider it fact. It is too bad he is no longer with the NFL Network, where there are some true experts like Mike Mayock. Mike focuses on talent evaluation coming out of college and has some great NFL Draft prospect analysis and he does some good game breakdowns like this one on NFL Playbook.

1997 vs. 2009 Broncos, Wash.

2009-10-21T10:24:00.021-05:00

I recently read an article at Mile High Report, one of my two favorite Broncos blog stops. As a side note, the author intimated the 2009 Broncos roster does not contain a talent level comparable to the 1997, Super Bowl Champion Denver Broncos.

I beg to differ.

We fans, as a whole, are a nostalgic group. We remember fondly the good times of teams-past; of their greatness, individually and in totality. Somewhere along the line we elevate the individuals of those championship teams into the realm of the elite despite their relative contributions to the team's success. There are some obviously needless considerations such as John Elway, Terrell Davis(TD) and Shannon Sharp; however, consider the fact that Kyle Orton has a better passer rating five weeks into the season and with more responsibility than Elway in the championship seasons. Since the Denver Broncos is not the run-heavy offensive team it once was, there will be a few questions that have no good answers.

Comparing the 1997 (and most of the '98 team) Denver Broncos offense with the 2009 squad, apples to apples, is not an impossible endeavor. For the most part, there are easy lines to compare and contrast at each position. We will not be considering the strength of position depth.

John Elway vs. Kyle Orton,

No comparison. Kyle is a heady QB to be sure but John had an immeasurable value just being on the field. Not unlike Brian Dawkins does for the Broncos defense now. The year of the QB, HOF hands down, belongs to 1997.

Terrell Davis vs. Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter,

It is difficult to measure one against two, but to compare offenses we must. TD was great, no doubt but I think Correll and Knowshon could put similarly gaudy numbers up behind the 1997 Broncos offensive line (TD - 4.7 Avg) and are putting up darn good ones behind this pass-blocking line right now (Team – 4.6 Avg). No disrespect intended toward the illustrious TD without whom there are no Super Bowl victories. Wash.

Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith vs. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal

This makes me feel a little dirty, but the 2009 Broncos have this one hands down. The pure speed, strength and toughness Eddie and Brandon now bring to this team are more than Elway had to work with. Ed and Rod were consummate professionals, perhaps the toughest and most diligent WRs to ever play the game, but I do wonder what kind of number John might have put up with Brandon and Eddie on the receiving end those lasers. If that is not enough to convince you we can dig a bit more. Who were the 1997 Denver Broncos’ third and fourth receivers? No? Me neither. Not Brandon Stokely and Jabar Gaffney to be sure. The year of the WR belongs to 2009.

Shannon Sharp and Dwayne Carswell vs. Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler,

On the blocking side, I call this a wash as Daniel and Dwayne were both pseudo-tackles (actually, Dwayne was a Tackle converted later into a TE) who could catch. However, there is no comparison between the vociferous Shannon and the comparably mime-like Tony. The year of the TE belongs, future HOF hands down, to 1997.

Run-Blocking offensive line (1997) vs. Pass-Blocking offensive line (2009),

In 1997 Denver's offensive line opened holes in the running game the size Rush Limbaugh’s failure to gain a foothold in the NFL every play. Opposing teams could not even slow it down. In 2009 a Denver's offensive line is a wall the size of Rush Limbaugh’s opposition into the NFL every play. They are/were the best at what they do/did. Wash.

I would have liked to break the defense down by position also, and I will make some loose comparisons, but overall these are very different personnel groups designed for different approaches to defense.

1997 Defense vs. 2009 Defense,

The 1997 Broncos defense was solid group. They were asked to hold leads and force offenses to use the clock. They sacked the QB less on average than the ’09 group with 2.75 per game, intercepted the ball less with 1.125 per game and allowed 6.0 yards per play (YPP) in the air. While the ’09 team, thus far, has sacked the QB 3.2 times per game with and 1.2 INTs per game and is allowing opposing offenses to throw for 5.9 YPP. As you can see, the differences are pedestrian.

The running game is, statistically, a very different story with the ’97 crew giving up 112.7 YPG (16th in Rush Defense in 1997) with a 4.7 rush average while the stout ’09 defense is holding teams to 81.0 YPG and 3.3 a clip. The 2009 Denver defense has the clear statistical advantage; however, the ’97 defense was often playing a soft zone, forcing the short throw or a run and they were not going to bite on a play-action fake.

Other considerations, on a personnel level, could be Dawkins vs. Atwater – wash, Bailey and Goodman vs. Crocket and Gordon – 2009 easily. Trevor Pryce, Neil Smith and Keith Traylor taken individually beat out Peterson, Fields and McBean; however, as a group and in the 2009 setting, I will take the 2009 line.

So, what is the verdict? How about the very reason for a defense? The 8.6 points surrendered per game in 2009 vs. the 17.9 given up in 1997 seems to be a pretty good reason to swing a vote, don’t you think? The year of the defense is 2009 - so far.

2009-10-01T22:31:00.015-05:00

2001-01-01T12:00:00.030-06:00

O A K L A N D R A I D E R S
Team News, Links and Info

Official Website

www.raiders.com

2001-01-01T00:00:01.088-06:00

C L E V E L A N D B R O W N S
Team News, Links and Info

Official Website

www.clevelandbrowns.com

2001-01-01T00:00:01.082-06:00

C H I C A G O B E A R S
Team News, Links and Info

Official Website