Forex

Essential Elements of a Successful Trader

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 18:17:00 +0000

Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain

All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.

You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.

However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.

Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.

Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.

The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.

For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.

The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).

So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.

Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?

If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.

Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus

Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.

To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.

Jimmy Young

Choosing a Forex Broker

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 18:16:00 +0000

As you may already know, foreign exchange (Forex/FX) is an unregulated market that is not traded on an exchange, which means that prices you see and get from one broker could vary from those of another broker. There are mainly two types of brokers. One type is an ECN (Electronic Communications Network) and another a Market-Maker.

Market-makers "make" or set the prices on their systems based on what they think is best for themselves as the counter-party. This is because every time you sell, they must buy, and when you buy, they must sell to you. This is why they can give you a fixed spread since they are setting both the bid and the ask price. Many of them will then try to "hedge" or "cover" your order by passing it on to someone else; however, some may decide to hold your order, and thus trade against you. This can result in a conflict of interest between the retail trader (you) and the market-maker.

ECNs, on the other hand, pass on prices from several banks and market-makers, as well as from the other traders in the ECN, and display the best bid/ask prices based on these input. This is why sometimes you can get no spread on ECNs, especially in very liquid currency pairs. How do ECNs make money then? They do so by charging you a fixed commission for each transaction.

Here are some of the pros and cons of ECNs and market-makers:

Market-Makers

Pros:

Usually give free charting software and news feed
Prices can be "smoother" and less volatile than ECN prices (this can be a con if you are scalping or trading very short term)
Often have a more user-friendly trading and analysis interface

Cons:

They may trade against you. In that case, there will be a conflict of interest between you and them
The price they offer you may be worse than what you could get on an ECN
It is possible that they may trigger stops or not let your trade reach your profit target levels by manipulating prices
During news, there will usually be a large amount of slippage; their systems may also lock up or not allow order placing during times of high volatility
Many of them discourage scalping and put scalpers on "manual execution" which means their orders may not get filled at the price they want

Examples of some market-makers:

http://www.goforex.net/forex-broker-list.htm#MM

ECNs

Pros:

You can usually get better bid/ask prices since they come from several sources
Variable spreads between bid and ask may give no spread or tiny spreads at times
If they are a true ECN, they will not be trading against you but will pass on your orders to a bank or another customer on the other end of the transaction.
You will be able to offer a price between the bid and ask with a chance of it getting filled
If they support Stop-Limit orders, you can prevent slippage during news by making sure that your order either gets filled at the price you want or not at all
Prices may be more volatile which will be better for scalping

Cons:

Many do not offer integrated charting
Many do not offer integrated news
Many of the trading platforms are less user-friendly
Because of variable spreads (between bid and ask,) it may be more difficult to calculate stop loss and profit target in pips beforehand.

Examples of some ECNs:

http://www.goforex.net/forex-broker-list.htm#ECN

Summary

It is important that you carefully look into the pros and cons of each broker before choosing the one which best suits your needs. You may also wish to have several broker accounts to mitigate the risks, and so that you can compare bid/ask prices and trade on the broker with the best prices for the direction you wish to trade. Because of the unregulated nature of forex, US brokers are not required to keep your money in an untouchable account that only you can have access to if they were to collapse. As customers of Refco (was one of the world's largest brokers) found out, their unprotected accounts made them unsecured creditors, and thus are less likely to get their money back than those who had given secured loans to Refco. What this means is that the customers' money was used to pay other creditors.

The moral of the story is this:

Deposit as little money with your broker as you need for trading, and withdraw your profits when they exceed a certain amount. Keep the rest of your trading capital in your own bank accounts which are probably government-insured.

Intervention and Trading - Methods that Move the Forex Market

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 18:15:00 +0000

In a free floating exchange rate system, the rate is determined purely by supply and demand forces of the market. However, there are times that the central bank intervenes to raise or lower the exchange rate in the floating market. The central banks are often influenced by outside sources to take part in this type of market manipulation. There are many reasons behind this intervention by the central bank.

The main reason that the central bank practices intervention is to stabilize fluctuations in the exchange rate. It is harder to make international trading and investment decisions if the exchange rate is constantly moving. If a trader feels less confident about the stability of the exchange rate they will reduce their investment activities.. For this reason investors will often place pressure on the government or central bank to intervene if the exchange rate is moving too much.

Another reason for the central banks intervention is as an attempt to stop or reverse a country's trade deficit. This is because a higher exchange rate will make that countries goods and services cheaper. This will stimulate imports while stifling exports, creating a trade deficit. If the deficit is significant enough the central bank may be persuaded to intervene to try to reduce the value of the currency by dumping excessive amounts of it on the market.

There are two intervention approaches the central bank may take. The direct method involves intervention by buying or selling currency in an attempt to manipulate the market. Whereas indirect approaches, attempt to make changes the domestic money supply.

The direct method is a more obvious method of intervention. The central bank can reduce the value of a currency by flooding the market with it. A raise in the supply of a specific currency will lead to its depreciation n value. Conversely, the central bank can raise the value of a currency by purchasing large amounts of it. The increased demand of the currency will cause it to appreciate.

The long-term effect of this direct intervention is limited. Eventually the market will stabilize and resume its previous trends.

The indirect method of intervention attempts to change the exchange rate through changes in the money supply. By increasing the supply of money the value for that currency will decrease. Similarly if the money supply is decreased the value for it will increase. This approach is effective but often takes several weeks to have an impact. This is because it must traverse all market operations before affecting the exchange rate. Another disadvantage of this method is that it also requires the central bank to alter the domestic interest rate to compensate for the change in money supply.

Intervention in the foreign exchange market is done sparingly because of the long-term effects it may have on other domestic factors. For example, changing the money supply will affect interest rates and price levels. This will contribute to a higher inflation rate, higher unemployment rates, and less gross domestic product growth in the long run.

To avoid these long-term affects, a sterilized intervention may be used. Sterilized intervention is intended to change the exchange rate without changing the money supply or interest rates. This type of intervention happens when the central bank offsets its direct intervention by making a simultaneous change in the domestic bond market. Studies have shown that a sterilized intervention of the foreign exchange market will yield short-term temporary results but ultimately have no lasting effects on the county's currency value. A more lasting effect can be possible if the intervention leads to investors changing their future expectations in the market.

Don't Get Scammed - Four Great Ways to Avoid It

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 18:15:00 +0000

Many know that one type of currency can be exchanged for another, but something that most people do not know is that there exist entire markets in the trading of currencies, and billions of dollars worth of foreign currency are traded each day. Because the details of the forex market are so unknown to most, it can be easy for a person to be taken in by one of the many scam artists out there today trying to separate the general public from their hard-earned money by offering "guaranteed" forex investment opportunities. There are several ways that people can protect themselves from these get-rich-quick scams.

The first rule in protecting oneself is to steer clear of any forex investment opportunities that sound too good to be true. Some companies are touting guaranteed returns of fifty to one hundred percent, but earning a return like this is just not likely in this day and age. Think about it - if it were possible to guarantee this type of money making potential, everyone would be doing putting all of their money into trading currencies. All of those mutual fund managers on Wall Street eking out gains of eight percent a year would immediately switch all of their billions of dollars in equity over to currency trading. While it is definitely possible to make money by trading currency, investors with realistic expectations are the ones who are most successful and the least likely to be scammed.

One should also be wary of any company that guarantees a return. Some investments are riskier than others, but all carry some chance of losing money. There is a direct relationship to the amount of return possible and the risk involved, and this is known as the risk-reward ratio. It is simply not possible for a forex brokerage to guarantee a positive return, and investors should avoid any company that does. Although investors make money every day in the forex market, negative returns are indeed possible and consumers should be made aware of their possibility.

In addition, any firm that purports to trade on the "interbank market" should be looked at with suspicion. By definition, an interbank market is created when banks trade currencies between themselves, or with other financial institutions, often at better exchange rates than can be obtained on the open forex market. Some companies advertise that they are able to tap into this market to take advantage of the superior prices, but in reality it is unlikely that the company is able to do so, especially if it is an unregulated currency trading firm.

Finally, investors should avoid falling for the advertisements that tout account executive jobs at currency trading firms. Often, poor ethnic minorities are targeted for these get-rich-quick schemes as they are offered high-paying employment opportunities with no experience necessary, often on late-night television infomercials. But once the applicant is solicited to invest a lot of money himself, these "jobs" turn out only to be ways these forex trading firms use bilk money from the unsuspecting public. And often, the job candidate is pressured to recruit friends and family members to the firm along with their hard-earned savings as well. Any job advertisement from a forex trading firm that sounds too good to be true likely is, and one should try and avoid these opportunities.

By following these four tips, one can successfully avoid the web of scam artists in an otherwise fast-paced, rewarding industry. There is a lot of money to be made in the forex market, and the savvy investor who trades with a legitimate brokerage house can find success in trading currencies.

Keep your Eye on the Money - The Best Currencies You Should Keep an Eye Out For

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 18:14:00 +0000

Of course, there are some currencies on the Forex that tend to do better than the rest of the pack. One of the ways of making money through Forex trading is by knowing not only which currencies are strong in general but also which currencies are making slow, steady gains in value. It used to be that the dollar was one of the prime currencies on the Forex. Many people all over the world were looking to buy dollars with their own currency because dollars were going up in value so much. The current state of affairs for owners of the dollar is not so good. Americans living and working in Europe, but getting paid in American dollars now wish that their paychecks were coming in in Euros. The Euro is now a real powerhouse in terms of the world market of currencies.

The Euro has done extremely well in the world market for many years, almost since the birth of the Euro. The initial countries of the Euro are mostly powerhouse countries, but the synergistic effect of all of these countries joining together has meant that none of their individual currencies were as strong as the Euro has become. Each currency was weaker on its own, for example the franc or the guilder. Now that the currencies have joined together, the Euro has really gained a lot of ground since the beginning. The Euro is definitely one of the currencies to watch on the Forex if you're looking to gain money with strong currencies.

Another powerhouse currency is the British Pound. Though a lot of countries criticized Great Britain for not joining in on the Euro, it has proven to be a wise financial decision on the part of Great Britain. The pound is one of the only currencies that can still compete with the Euro; the dollar tried to compete with the Euro for a long time, but the battle has more than effectively been lost. The dollar is now one of the laughingstocks on the Forex market, alongside the Japanese Yen.

Another good, though not so often mentioned, currency on the Forex is the Canadian Dollar. This dollar, once extremely weak beside the American Dollar, has gained more than significant ground in the last five years. The Canadian Dollar has gained significant strength in recent years, and has shown to be continuously on an upward trend. Even if the upward trend of the Canadian Dollar is not as significant as the upward trend of the Euro, it is steadily moving upward.

The other top currencies for trade in the Forex are the Japanese Yen and the Australian Dollar. Both of these currencies have quite a long history in the world of Forex, and the recent developments are not all good, especially where the yen is concerned, but these two currencies remain at the top of the Forex Trade.

The key to success on the Forex is to really know the trends in the market. Another thing to really watch if one is looking to succeed in the Forex is the trend of interest rates in a give country. Interest rates have proven to be very indicative of the value of the currency itself. If one is watching interest rates, then one is also watching currencies, indirectly of course, but watching nonetheless. A vigilant eye and a sense for patterns in the market will result in a powerhouse career or hobby for somebody in the Forex market. There's a lot of success to be had if one is paying attention to the market and the trends.

Seven Helpful Hints to Follow when Choosing your Forex Broker

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 18:13:00 +0000

When getting started in trading on the forex market, one of the most important decisions you will have to make is which broker to use. There are a myriad of institutions out there that facilitate currency trading for the individual investor, and choosing the right one can mean the difference between success and failure as a forex trader. Because the stakes are high, this is a decision that should not be taken lightly, and it is crucial that you research all available information before taking that first step and signing up.

One thing to look for in a forex brokerage is the availability of a demo account, which is a valuable tool for the trader who is just starting out. This type of account does not use real money; the account holder is issued a pretend balance to play around with for a limited period of time, usually thirty days. You can use this time to try different things, and to get a feel for the pace of the forex market and how everything works. These accounts usually come with all of the research tools available to real account holders, so this is also a good way to evaluate the broker's system as a whole.

Most brokerages make a variety of research tools available, but the quantity and quality of these devices vary between different institutions. You should look for a brokerage that at a minimum offers real-time quotes, multiple charting options, live news feeds, and research reports written by professionals. More information means a greater advantage over the competition, so it is important to choose a company that provides enough research tools for you to have the ability to make informed decisions while trading.

You should also check out the software the brokerage makes available to its account holders, particularly if you lack experience using computers. Some programs are easier to use than others, and user-friendliness is a significant quality to look for when evaluating this software. If the program is confusing or difficult to use, you will not have a very good trading experience, and this can translate to lost money. It is important to find a brokerage that provides software you can be comfortable with.

Another vital factor involved in picking a forex broker is the spread. In forex trading, a spread is the difference between the price to buy a currency and the price to sell it at any given moment. The brokerage makes money on this difference, and when one refers to a "tight spread" he is talking about two prices that are close together. This means that less money goes to the brokerage out of your trade, so choosing a brokerage that offers tight spreads is a good idea to maximize your trading success.

The availability of leverage options is something that many forex traders look for in a brokerage. When an investor uses leverage, he borrows money from the broker to trade with, keeping any profits that are made before paying the money back. Most brokerages offer the ability to trade with an amount of money that is much higher than the amount of cash in the account, sometimes reaching up to 400 times this amount. The reason forex brokerages can offer this high level of margin is that the amount that a currency pair will change in price in a day is usually very small, so the risk is much less than with equities.

Beginning forex investors should also check out how long the institution has been in business. By researching the background of the company, you can get an idea as to the legitimacy of the brokerage to see if your money will be safe in their hands. Brokers that have just sprung up overnight are usually not the best places to begin trading, so look for one that has been around for a while. Another good quality to look for is an association with a major bank or other financial institution.

Finally, you should always choose a forex broker that is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This independent agency of the U.S. government provides oversight of the various brokerages in the United States, and helps protect investors from fraud that unfortunately is becoming more commonplace in today's society. By making sure the brokerage is registered with this agency, you can take the guesswork out of determining the legitimacy of the institution.

There is a wide range of forex brokerages out there, and it can be difficult to determine which one is the best. But by doing some research into the different options, you can do a lot to not only protect yourself from fraud, but to maximize your success in trading currencies.

Market size and liquidity

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 09:07:00 +0000

The foreign exchange market is unique because of

its trading volumes,
the extreme liquidity of the market,
the large number of, and variety of, traders in the market,
its geographical dispersion,
its long trading hours: 24 hours a day (except on weekends),
the variety of factors that affect exchange rates.
the low margins of profit compared with other markets of fixed income (but profits can be high due to very large trading volumes)

As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal perfect competition. According to the BIS,^[1] average daily turnover in traditional foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.21 trillion. Daily averages in April for different years, in billions of US dollars, are presented on the chart below:

This $3.21 trillion in global foreign exchange market "traditional" turnover was broken down as follows:

$1,005 billion in spot transactions
$362 billion in outright forwards
$1,714 billion in forex swaps
$129 billion estimated gaps in reporting

In addition to "traditional" turnover, $2.1 trillion was traded in derivatives.

Exchange-traded forex futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts. Forex futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, and accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe (5/5/06, p. 20).

Average daily global turnover in traditional foreign exchange market transactions totaled $2.7 trillion in April 2006 according to IFSL estimates based on semi-annual London, New York, Tokyo and Singapore Foreign Exchange Committee data. Overall turnover, including non-traditional foreign exchange derivatives and products traded on exchanges, averaged around $2.9 trillion a day. This was more than ten times the size of the combined daily turnover on all the world’s equity markets. Foreign exchange trading increased by 38% between April 2005 and April 2006 and has more than doubled since 2001. This is largely due to the growing importance of foreign exchange as an asset class and an increase in fund management assets, particularly of hedge funds and pension funds. The diverse selection of execution venues such as internet trading platforms has also made it easier for retail traders to trade in the foreign exchange market. ^[4]

Because foreign exchange is an OTC market where brokers/dealers negotiate directly with one another, there is no central exchange or clearing house. The biggest geographic trading centre is the UK, primarily London, which according to IFSL estimates has increased its share of global turnover in traditional transactions from 31.3% in April 2004 to 32.4% in April 2006. RPP

The ten most active traders account for almost 73% of trading volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe, (2/9/06 p. 20). These large international banks continually provide the market with both bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices. The bid/ask spread is the difference between the price at which a bank or market maker will sell ("ask", or "offer") and the price at which a market-maker will buy ("bid") from a wholesale customer. This spread is minimal for actively traded pairs of currencies, usually 0–3 pips. For example, the bid/ask quote of EUR/USD might be 1.2200/1.2203 on a retail broker. Minimum trading size for most deals is usually 100,000 units of currency, which is a standard "lot".

These spreads might not apply to retail customers at banks, which will routinely mark up the difference to say 1.2100 / 1.2300 for transfers, or say 1.2000 / 1.2400 for banknotes or travelers' checks. Spot prices at market makers vary, but on EUR/USD are usually no more than 3 pips wide (i.e. 0.0003). Competition is greatly increased with larger transactions, and pip spreads shrink on the major pairs to as little as 1 to 2 pips.

Forex-Forecasting

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 09:05:00 +0000

This article provides insight into the two major methods of analysis used to forecast the behavior of the Forex market. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis differ greatly, but both can be useful forecast tools for the Forex trader. They have the same goal - to predict a price or movement. The technician studies the effect while the fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement. Many successful traders combine a mixture of both approaches for superior results.

Technical analysis

Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action. Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually happened in the market, rather than what should happen and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading, and creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously.

Technical analysis is built on three essential principles:

1. Market action discounts everything! This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it, for example, supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment. However, the pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, not with the reasons for any changes.

2. Prices move in trends Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior that have long been recognized as significant. For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. Also, there are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis.

3. History repeats itself Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time.

Forex charts are based on market action involving price. There are five categories in Forex technical analysis theory:

* Indicators (oscillators, e.g.: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
* Number theory (Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers)
* Waves (Elliott wave theory)
* Gaps (high-low, open-closing)
* Trends (following moving average).

Some major technical analysis tools are described below:

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

The RSI measures the ratio of up-moves to down-moves and normalizes the calculation so that the index is expressed in a range of 0-100. If the RSI is 70 or greater, then the instrument is assumed to be overbought (a situation in which prices have risen more than market expectations). An RSI of 30 or less is taken as a signal that the instrument may be oversold (a situation in which prices have fallen more than the market expectations).

Stochastic oscillator:

This is used to indicate overbought/oversold conditions on a scale of 0-100%. The indicator is based on the observation that in a strong up trend, period closing prices tend to concentrate in the higher part of the period's range. Conversely, as prices fall in a strong down trend, closing prices tend to be near to the extreme low of the period range. Stochastic calculations produce two lines, %K and %D that are used to indicate overbought/oversold areas of a chart. Divergence between the stochastic lines and the price action of the underlying instrument gives a powerful trading signal.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):

This indicator involves plotting two momentum lines. The MACD line is the difference between two exponential moving averages and the signal or trigger line, which is an exponential moving average of the difference. If the MACD and trigger lines cross, then this is taken as a signal that a change in the trend is likely.

Number theory:

Fibonacci numbers: The Fibonacci number sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34...) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. The ratio of any number to the next larger number is 62%, which is a popular Fibonacci retracement number. The inverse of 62%, which is 38%, is also used as a Fibonacci retracement number.

Gann numbers:

W.D. Gann was a stock and a commodity trader working in the '50s who reputedly made over million in the markets. He made his fortune using methods that he developed for trading instruments based on relationships between price movement and time, known as time/price equivalents. There is no easy explanation for Gann's methods, but in essence he used angles in charts to determine support and resistance areas and predict the times of future trend changes. He also used lines in charts to predict support and resistance areas.

Waves

Elliott wave theory: The Elliott wave theory is an approach to market analysis that is based on repetitive wave patterns and the Fibonacci number sequence. An ideal Elliott wave patterns shows a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave decline.

Gaps

Gaps are spaces left on the bar chart where no trading has taken place. An up gap is formed when the lowest price on a trading day is higher than the highest high of the previous day. A down gap is formed when the highest price of the day is lower than the lowest price of the prior day. An up gap is usually a sign of market strength, while a down gap is a sign of market weakness. A breakaway gap is a price gap that forms on the completion of an important price pattern. It usually signals the beginning of an important price move. A runaway gap is a price gap that usually occurs around the mid-point of an important market trend. For that reason, it is also called a measuring gap. An exhaustion gap is a price gap that occurs at the end of an important trend and signals that the trend is ending.

Trends

A trend refers to the direction of prices. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an up trend; falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend that determines the steepness of the current trend. The breaking of a trend line usually signals a trend reversal. Horizontal peaks and troughs characterize a trading range.

Moving averages are used to smooth price information in order to confirm trends and support and resistance levels. They are also useful in deciding on a trading strategy, particularly in futures trading or a market with a strong up or down trend.

The most common technical tools:

Coppock Curve is an investment tool used in technical analysis for predicting bear market lows.

DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) is a popular technical indicator used to determine whether or not a currency pair is trending.

Unlike the fundamental analyst, the technical analyst is not much concerned with any of the "bigger picture" factors affecting the market, but concentrates on the activity of that instrument's market.
Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a financial instrument based on economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the financial instrument. In practice, many market players use technical analysis in conjunction with fundamental analysis to determine their trading strategy. Fundamental analysis focuses on what ought to happen in a market. Factors involved in price analysis: Supply and demand, seasonal cycles, weather and government policy.

Fundamental analysis is a macro or strategic assessment of where a currency should be trading based on any criteria but the movement of the currency's price itself. These criteria often include the economic condition of the country that the currency represents, monetary policy, and other "fundamental" elements.

Many profitable trades are made moments prior to or shortly after major economic announcements.

Forex risk management strategies

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 09:02:00 +0000

The Forex market behaves differently from other markets! The speed, volatility, and enormous size of the Forex market are unlike anything else in the financial world. Beware: the Forex market is uncontrollable - no single event, individual, or factor rules it. Enjoy trading in the perfect market! Just like any other speculative business, increased risk entails chances for a higher profit/loss.

Currency markets are highly speculative and volatile in nature. Any currency can become very expensive or very cheap in relation to any or all other currencies in a matter of days, hours, or sometimes, in minutes. This unpredictable nature of the currencies is what attracts an investor to trade and invest in the currency market.

But ask yourself, "How much am I ready to lose?" When you terminated, closed or exited your position, did you understand the risks and taken steps to avoid them? Let's look at some foreign exchange risk management issues that may come up in your day-to-day foreign exchange transactions.

* Unexpected corrections in currency exchange rates
* Wild variations in foreign exchange rates
* Volatile markets offering profit opportunities
* Lost payments
* Delayed confirmation of payments and receivables
* Divergence between bank drafts received and the contract price

These are areas that every trader should cover both BEFORE and DURING a trade.

Exit the Forex market at profit targets

Take profit take orders, allow Forex traders to exit the Forex market at pre-determined profit targets. If you are short (sold) a currency pair, the system will only allow you to place a limit order below the current market price because this is the profit zone. Similarly, if you are long (bought) the currency pair, the system will only allow you to place a take profit order above the current market price. Take profit orders help create a disciplined trading methodology and make it possible for traders to walk away from the computer without continuously monitoring the market.

Control risk by capping losses

Stop/loss orders allow traders to set an exit point for a losing trade. If you are short a currency pair, the stop/loss order should be placed above the current market price. If you are long the currency pair, the stop/loss order should be placed below the current market price. Stop/loss orders help traders control risk by capping losses. Stop/loss orders are counter-intuitive because you do not want them to be hit; however, you will be happy that you placed them! When logic dictates, you can control greed.

Where should I place my stop and take profit orders?

As a general rule of thumb, traders should set stop/loss orders closer to the opening price than take profit orders. If this rule is followed, a trader needs to be right less than 50% of the time to be profitable. For example, a trader that uses a 30 pip stop/loss and 100-pip take profit orders, needs only to be right 1/3 of the time to make a profit. Where the trader places the stop and take profit will depend on how risk-adverse he is. Stop/loss orders should not be so tight that normal market volatility triggers the order. Similarly, take profit orders should reflect a realistic expectation of gains based on the market's trading activity and the length of time one wants to hold the position. In initially setting up and establishing the trade, the trader should look to change the stop loss and set it at a rate in the 'middle ground' where they are not overexposed to the trade, and at the same time, not too close to the market.

Trading foreign currencies is a demanding and potentially profitable opportunity for trained and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should soberly reflect on the desired result of your investment and your level of experience. Warning! Do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.

So, there is significant risk in any foreign exchange deal. Any transaction involving currencies involves risks including, but not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions, that may substantially affect the price or liquidity of a currency.

Moreover, the leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds. This may work against you as well as for you. The possibility exists that you could sustain a total loss of your initial margin funds and be required to deposit additional funds to maintain your position. If you fail to meet any margin call within the time prescribed, your position will be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses. 'Stop-loss' or 'limit' order strategies may lower an investor's exposure to risk.

Easy-Forex foreign exchange technology links around-the-clock to the world's foreign currency exchange trading floors to get the lowest foreign currency rates and to take every opportunity to make or settle a transaction.

Avoiding/lowering risk when trading Forex:

Trade like a technical analyst. Understanding the fundamentals behind an investment also requires understanding the technical analysis method. When your fundamental and technical signals point to the same direction, you have a good chance to have a successful trade, especially with good money management skills. Use simple support and resistance technical analysis, Fibonacci Retracement and reversal days. Be disciplined. Create a position and understand your reasons for having that position, and establish stop loss and profit taking levels. Discipline includes hitting your stops and not following the temptation to stay with a losing position that has gone through your stop/loss level. When you buy, buy high. When you sell, sell higher. Similarly, when you sell, sell low. When you buy, buy lower. Rule of thumb: In a bull market, be long or neutral - in a bear market, be short or neutral. If you forget this rule and trade against the trend, you will usually cause yourself to suffer psychological worries, and frequently, losses. And never add to a losing position. On Easy-Forex the trader can change their trade orders as many times as they wish free of charge, either as a stop loss or as a take profit. The trader can also close the trade manually without a stop loss or profit take order being hit. Many successful traders set their stop loss price beyond the rate at which they made the trade so that the worst that can happen is that they get stopped out and make a profit.

Exchange rates

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 08:59:00 +0000

Because currencies are traded in pairs and exchanged one against the other when traded, the rate at which they are exchanged is called the exchange rate. The majority of the currencies are traded against the US dollar (USD). The four next-most traded currencies are the Euro (EUR), the Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound sterling (GBP) and the Swiss franc (CHF). These five currencies make up the majority of the market and are called the major currencies or "the Majors". Some sources also include the Australian dollar (AUD) within the group of major currencies.

The first currency in the exchange pair is referred to as the base currency and the second currency as the counter term or quote currency. The counter term or quote currency is thus the numerator in the ratio, and the base currency is the denominator. The value of the base currency (denominator) is always 1. Therefore, the exchange rate tells a buyer how much of the counter term or quote currency must be paid to obtain one unit of the base currency. The exchange rate also tells a seller how much is received in the counter term or quote currency when selling one unit of the base currency. For example, an exchange rate for EUR/USD of 1.2083 specifies to the buyer of euros that 1.2083 USD must be paid to obtain 1 euro.

At any given point, time and place, if an investor buys any currency and immediately sells it - and no change in the exchange rate has occurred - the investor will lose money. The reason for this is that the bid price, which represents how much will be received in the counter or quote currency when selling one unit of the base currency, is always lower than the ask price, which represents how much must be paid in the counter or quote currency when buying one unit of the base currency. For instance, the EUR/USD bid/ask currency rates at your bank may be 1.2015/1.3015, representing a spread of 1000 pips (also called points, one pip = 0.0001), which is very high in comparison to the bid/ask currency rates that online Forex investors commonly encounter, such as 1.2015/1.2020, with a spread of 5 pips. In general, smaller spreads are better for Forex investors since even they require a smaller movement in exchange rates in order to profit from a trade.

Margin

Banks and/or online trading providers need collateral to ensure that the investor can pay in case of a loss. The collateral is called the margin and is also known as minimum security in Forex markets. In practice, it is a deposit to the trader's account that is intended to cover any currency trading losses in the future.

Margin enables private investors to trade in markets that have high minimum units of trading by allowing traders to hold a much larger position than their account value. Margin trading also enhances the rate of profit, but can also enhance the rate of loss if the investor makes the wrong decision.

Leveraged financing

Leveraged financing, i.e., the use of credit, such as a trade purchased on a margin, is very common in Forex. The loan/leveraged in the margined account is collateralized by your initial deposit. This may result in being able to control USD 100,000 for as little as USD 1,000.

There are three ways private investors can trade in Forex directly or indirectly:

* The spot market
* Forwards and futures
* Options

A spot transaction

A spot transaction is a straightforward exchange of one currency for another. The spot rate is the current market price, also called the benchmark price. Spot transactions do not require immediate settlement, or payment "on the spot." The settlement date, or "value date," is the second business day after the "deal date" (or "trade date") on which the transaction is agreed to by the two traders. The two-day period provides time to confirm the agreement and arrange the clearing and necessary debiting and crediting of bank accounts in various international locations.

Forwards and Futures

Forwards make up about 46% of currency trading. A forward transaction is an agreement between two parties whereby one party buys a currency at a particular price by a certain date that is greater than two business days (a spot transaction).

A future contract is a forward contract with fixed currency amounts and maturity dates. They are traded on future exchanges and not through the interbank foreign exchange market.

Options

A currency option is similar to a futures contract in that it involves a fixed currency transaction at some future date in time. However the buyer of the option is only purchasing the right but not the obligation to purchase a fixed amount of currency at a fixed price by a certain date in future. The price is known as the premium and is lost if the buyer does not exercise the option.

Risks

Although Forex trading can lead to very profitable results, there are risks involved: exchange rate risks, interest rate risks, credit risks, and country risks. Approximately 80% of all currency transactions last a period of seven days or less, while more than 40% last fewer than two days. Given the extremely short lifespan of the typical trade, technical indicators heavily influence entry, exit and order placement decisions.

Forex trading

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 08:58:00 +0000

The investor's goal in Forex trading is to profit from foreign currency movements. Forex trading or currency trading is always done in currency pairs. For example, the exchange rate of EUR/USD on Aug 26th, 2003 was 1.0857. This number is also referred to as a "Forex rate" or just "rate" for short. If the investor had bought 1000 euros on that date, he would have paid 1085.70 U.S. dollars. One year later, the Forex rate was 1.2083, which means that the value of the euro (the numerator of the EUR/USD ratio) increased in relation to the U.S. dollar. The investor could now sell the 1000 euros in order to receive 1208.30 dollars. Therefore, the investor would have USD 122.60 more than what he had started one year earlier. However, to know if the investor made a good investment, one needs to compare this investment option to alternative investments. At the very minimum, the return on investment (ROI) should be compared to the return on a "risk-free" investment. One example of a risk-free investment is long-term U.S. government bonds since there is practically no chance for a default, i.e. the U.S. government going bankrupt or being unable or unwilling to pay its debt obligation.

When trading currencies, trade only when you expect the currency you are buying to increase in value relative to the currency you are selling. If the currency you are buying does increase in value, you must sell back the other currency in order to lock in a profit. An open trade (also called an open position) is a trade in which a trader has bought or sold a particular currency pair and has not yet sold or bought back the equivalent amount to close the position.

However, it is estimated that anywhere from 70%-90% of the FX market is speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency.

An overview of the Forex market

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 08:55:00 +0000

The Forex market is a non-stop cash market where currencies of nations are traded, typically via brokers. Foreign currencies are constantly and simultaneously bought and sold across local and global markets and traders' investments increase or decrease in value based upon currency movements. Foreign exchange market conditions can change at any time in response to real-time events.

The main enticements of currency dealing to private investors and attractions for short-term Forex trading are:

24-hour trading, 5 days a week with non-stop access to global Forex dealers.
An enormous liquid market making it easy to trade most currencies.
Volatile markets offering profit opportunities.
Standard instruments for controlling risk exposure.
The ability to profit in rising or falling markets.
Leveraged trading with low margin requirements.
Many options for zero commission trading.

Working with statistics

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 08:38:00 +0000

Trade Balance

The trade balance is a measure of the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods and services. The level of the trade balance and changes in exports and imports are widely followed by foreign exchange markets.

The trade balance is a major indicator of foreign exchange trends. Seen in isolation, measures of imports and exports are important indicators of overall economic activity in the economy.

It is often of interest to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately. Trends in export activities reflect the competitive position of the country in question, but also the strength of economic activity abroad. Trends in import activity reflect the strength of domestic economic activity.

Typically, a nation that runs a substantial trade balance deficit has a weak currency due to the continued commercial selling of the currency. This can, however, be offset by financial investment flows for extended periods of time.

Gross Domestic Product

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity available. Reported quarterly, GDP growth is widely followed as the primary indicator of the strength of economic activity.

GDP represents the total value of a country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and the government.

As GDP reports are often subject to substantial quarter-to-quarter volatility and revisions, it is preferable to follow the indicator on a year-to-year basis. It can be valuable to follow the trend rate of growth in each of the major categories of GDP to determine the strengths and weaknesses in the economy.

A high GDP figure is often associated with the expectations of higher interest rates, which is frequently positive, at least in the short term, for the currency involved, unless expectations of increased inflation pressure is concurrently undermining confidence in the currency.

Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The monthly reported changes in CPI are widely followed as an inflation indicator.

The CPI is a primary inflation indicator because consumer spending accounts for nearly two-thirds of economic activity. Often, the CPI is followed but excludes the price of food and energy as these items are generally much more volatile than the rest of the CPI and can obscure the more important underlying trend.

Rising consumer price inflation is normally associated with the expectation of higher short term interest rates and may therefore be supportive for a currency in the short term. Nevertheless, a longer term inflation problem will eventually undermine confidence in the currency and weakness will follow.

Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods received in primary markets by producers. The monthly PPI reports are widely followed as an indication of commodity inflation.

The PPI is considered important because it accounts for price changes throughout the manufacturing sector.

The PPI is often followed but excludes the food and energy components as these items are normally much more volatile than the rest of the PPI and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.

Studying the PPI allows consideration of inflationary pressures that may be accumulating or receding, but have not yet filtered through to the finished goods prices.

A rising PPI is normally expected to lead to higher consumer price inflation and thereby to potentially higher short-term interest rates. Higher rates will often have a short term positive impact on a currency, although significant inflationary pressure will often lead to an undermining of the confidence in the currency involved.

Payroll Employment

Payroll employment is a measure of the number of people being paid as employees by non-farm business establishments and units of government. Monthly changes in payroll employment reflect the net number of new jobs created or lost during the month and changes are widely followed as an important indicator of economic activity.

Payroll employment is one of the primary monthly indicators of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses every major sector of the economy. It is also useful to examine trends in job creation in several industry categories because the aggregate data can mask significant deviations in underlying industry trends.

Large increases in payroll employment are seen as signs of strong economic activity that could eventually lead to higher interest rates that are supportive of the currency at least in the short term. If, however, inflationary pressures are seen as building, this may undermine the longer term confidence in the currency.

Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders are a measure of the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of change of such orders.

Levels of, and changes in, durable goods order are widely followed as an indicator of factory sector momentum.

Durable Goods Orders are a major indicator of manufacturing sector trends because most industrial production is done to order. Often, the indicator is followed but excludes Defence and Transportation orders because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the orders and can obscure the more important underlying trend.

Durable Goods Orders are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Therefore the Durable Goods Orders should be compared to the trend growth rate in PPI to arrive at the real, inflation-adjusted Durable Goods Orders.

Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.

Retail Sales

Retail Sales are a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percentage changes reflect the rate of change of such sales and are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending.

Retails Sales are a major indicator of consumer spending because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity.

Often, Retail Sales are followed less auto sales because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the Retail Sales and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.

Retail Sales are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Rising Retail Sales are often associated with a strong economy and therefore an expectation of higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.

Housing Starts

Housing Starts are a measure of the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month and the level of housing starts is widely followed as an indicator of residential construction activity.

The indicator is followed to assess the commitment of builders to new construction activity. High construction activity is usually associated with increased economic activity and confidence, and is therefore considered a harbinger of higher short-term interest rates that can be supportive of the involved currency at least in the short term.

Forex trading examples

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 08:37:00 +0000

Example 1

An investor has a margin deposit with Saxo Bank of USD 100,000.

The investor expects the US dollar to rise against the Swiss franc and therefore decides to buy USD 2,000,000 - 2% of his maximum possible exposure at a 1% margin Forex gearing.

The Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5515-20. The investor buys USD at 1.5520.

Day 1: Buy USD 2,000,000 vs CHF 1.5520 = Sell CHF 3,104,000.

Four days later, the dollar has actually risen to CHF 1.5745 and the investor decides to take his profit.

Upon his request, the Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5745-50. The investor sells at 1.5745.

Day 5: Sell USD 2,000,000 vs CHF 1.5745 = Buy CHF 3,149,000.

As the dollar side of the transaction involves a credit and a debit of USD 2,000,000, the investor's USD account will show no change. The CHF account will show a debit of CHF 3,104,000 and a credit of CHF 3,149,000. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the profit calculation.

This results in a profit of CHF 45,000 = approx. USD 28,600 = 28.6% profit on the deposit of USD 100,000.

Example 2:

The investor follows the cross rate between the EUR o and the Japanese yen. He believes that this market is headed for a fall. As he is not quite confident of this trade, he uses less of the leverage available on his deposit. He chooses to ask the dealer for a quote in EUR 1,000,000. This requires a margin of EUR 1,000,000 x 5% = EUR 10,000 = approx. USD 52,500 (EUR /USD 1.05).

The dealer quotes 112.05-10. The investor sells EUR at 112.05.

Day 1: Sell EUR 1,000,000 vs JPY 112.05 = Buy JPY 112,050,000.

He protects his position with a stop-loss order to buy back the EUR o at 112.60. Two days later, this stop is triggered as the EUR o strengthens short term in spite of the investor's expectations.

Day 3: Buy EUR 1,000,000 vs JPY 112.60 = Sell JPY 112,600,000.

The EUR side involves a credit and a debit of EUR 1,000,000. Therefore, the EUR account shows no change. The JPY account is credited JPY 112.05m and debited JPY 112.6m for a loss of JPY 0.55m. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the loss calculation.

This results in a loss of JPY 0.55m = approx.USD 5,300 (USD/JPY 105) = 5.3% loss on the original deposit of USD 100,000.

Example 3

The investor believes the Canadian dollar will strengthen against the US dollar. It is a long term view, so he takes a small position to allow for wider swings in the rate:

He asks Saxo Bank for a quote in USD 1,000,000 against the Canadian dollar. The dealer quotes 1.5390-95 and the investors sells USD at 1.5390. Selling USD is the equivalent of buying the Canadian dollar.

Day 1: Sell USD 1,000,000 vs CAD 1.5390. He swaps the position out for two months receiving a forward rate of CAD 1.5357 = Buy CAD 1,535,700 for Day 61 due to the interest rate differential.

After a month, the desired move has occurred. The investor buys back the US dollars at 1.4880. He has to swap the position forward for a month to match the original sale. The forward rate is agreed at 1.4865.

Day 31: Buy USD 1,000,000 vs CAD 1.4865 = Sell CAD 1,486,500 for Day 61.

Day 61: The two trades are settled and the trades go off the books. The profit secured on Day 31 can be used for margin purposes before Day 61.

The USD account receives a credit and debit of USD 1,000,000 and shows no change on the account. The CAD account is credited CAD 1,535,700 and debited CAD 1,486,500 for a profit of CAD 49,200 = approx. USD 33,100 = profit of 33.1% on the original deposit of USD 100,000.

How to trade Forex?

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 08:37:00 +0000

Trading foreign exchange is exciting and potentially very profitable, but there are also significant risk factors. It is crucially important that you fully understand the implications of margin trading and the particular pitfalls and opportunities that foreign exchange trading offers. On these pages, we offer you a brief introduction to the FX markets as well as their participants and some strategies that you can apply. However, if you are ever in doubt about any aspect of a trade, you can always discuss the matter in-depth with one of our dealers. They are available 24 hours a day on the Saxo Bank internet trading system, SaxoTrader.

The benchmark of its service is efficient execution, concise analysis and expertise - all achieved whilst maintaining an attractive and competitive cost structure. Today, Saxo Bank offers one of Europe's premier all-round services for trading in derivative products and foreign exchange. We count amongst our employees numerous dealers and analysts, each of whom has many years experience and a wide and varied knowledge of the markets - gained both in our home countries and in international financial centres. When trading foreign exchange, futures and other derivative products, we offer 24-hour service, extensive daily analysis, individual access to our Research & Analysis department for specific queries, and immediate execution of trades through our international network of banks and brokers. All at a price considerably lower than that which most companies and private investors normally have access to.

The combination of our strong emphasis on customer service, our strategy and trading recommendations, our strategic and individual hedging programmes, along with the availability to our clients of the latest news and information builds a strong case for trading an individual account through Saxo Bank.

Terms of trading are agreed individually depending on the volume of your transactions, but are generally much lower in cost when compared to banks and brokers. Your margin deposit can be cash or government securities, bank guarantees etc. Large corporate or institutional clients may be offered trading facilities on the strength of their balance sheet. The minimum deposit accepted for an individual trading account depends on the account type. Trade confirmations and realtime acount overview are built into SaxoTrader, while further account information can be produced in accordance with your specific requirements.

Forex Trading Basics

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 08:35:00 +0000

The global foreign exchange market is the biggest market in the world. The 3.2 trillion USD daily turnover dwarfs the combined turnover of all the world's stock and bond markets.

There are many reasons for the popularity of foreign exchange trading, but among the most important are the leverage available, the high liquidity 24 hours a day and the very low dealing costs associated with trading.

Of course many commercial organisations participate purely due to the currency exposures created by their import and export activities, but the main part of the turnover is accounted for by financial institutions. Investing in foreign exchange remains predominantly the domain of the big professional players in the market - funds, banks and brokers. Nevertheless, any investor with the necessary knowledge of the market's functions can benefit from the advantages stated above.

Margin Trading

Foreign exchange is normally traded on margin. A relatively small deposit can control much larger positions in the market. For trading the main currencies, SaxoBank requires a 1% margin deposit. This means that in order to trade one million dollars, you need to place just USD 10,000 by way of security.

In other words, you will have obtained a gearing of up to 100 times. This means that a change of, say 2%, in the underlying value of your trade will result in a 200% profit or loss on your deposit. See below for specific examples. As you can see, this calls for a very disciplined approach to trading as both profit opportunities and potential risks are very large indeed.

Base Currency and Variable Currency

When you trade, you will always trade a combination of two currencies. For example, you will buy US dollars and sell Euro. Or buy Euro and sell Japanese yen, or any other combination of dozens of widely traded currencies. But there is always a long (bought) and a short (sold) side to a trade, which means that you are speculating on the prospect of one of the currencies strengthening in relation to the other.

The trade currency is normally, but not always, the currency with the highest value. When trading US dollars against German marks, the normal way to trade is buying or selling a fixed amount of US dollars, i.e. USD 1,000,000. When closing the position, the opposite trade is done, again USD 1,000,000. The profit or loss will be apparent in the change of the amount of Euro credited and debited for the two transactions. In other words, your profit or loss will be denominated in Euro, which is known as the price currency. As part of our service, Saxo Bank will automatically exchange your profits and losses into your base currency if you require this.

This way of trading is different to the futures markets, for example, where the marks, francs and yen are the fixed trade currency, resulting in a US dollar denominated profit or loss. You can, however, also choose to trade in this reciprocal manner in foreign exchange markets but it is not the norm.

Dealing Spread, but No Commissions

When trading foreign exchange, you are quoted a dealing spread offering you a buying and a selling level for your trade. Once you accept the offered price and receive confirmation from our dealers, the trade is done. There is no need to call an exchange floor. There are no other time-consuming delays. This is possible due to live streaming prices, which are also a great advantage in times of fast-moving markets: You can see where the market is trading and you know whether your orders are filled or not.

The dealing spread is typically 3-5 points in normal market conditions, e.g. USD/EUR 1.7780-85. This means that you can sell US dollars against the Euro at 1.7780 and buy at 1.7785. There are no further costs, commissions or exchange fees.

This ensures that you can get in and out of your trades at very low slippage and many traders are therefore active intra-day traders, given that a typical day in USD/EUR presents price swings of 150-200 points.

Spot and forward trading

When you trade foreign exchange you are normally quoted a spot price. This means that if you take no further steps, your trade will be settled after two business days. Due to the fact that the EU investment directive does not presently cover spot foreign exchange trading we will, however, require you to swap your trade forward at least another two business days. This ensures that your trades are undertaken subject to supervision by regulatory authorities for your own protection and security. If you are a commercial customer, you may need to convert the currencies for international payments. If you are an investor, you will normally want to swap your trade forward to a later date. This can be undertaken on a daily basis or for a longer period at a time. Often investors will swap their trades forward anywhere from a week or two up to several months depending on the time frame of the investment.

Although a forward trade is for a future date, the position can be closed out at any time - the closing part of the position is then swapped forward to the same future value date.

Interest Rate Differentials

Different currencies pay different interest rates. This is one of the main driving forces behind foreign exchange trends. It is inherently attractive to be a buyer of a currency that pays a high interest rate while being short a currency that has a low interest rate.

Although such interest rate differentials may not appear very large, they are of great significance in a highly leveraged position. For example, the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen has been approximately 5% for several years. In a position that can be supported by a 5% margin deposit, this results in a 100% profit on capital per annum when you buy the US dollar. Of course, an even more important factor normally is the relative value of the currencies, which changed 15% from low to high during 2005 - disregarding the interest rate differential. From a pure interest rate differential viewpoint, you have an advantage of 100% per annum in your favour by being long US dollar, and an initial disadvantage of the same size by being short.
Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions!

Such a situation clearly benefits the high interest rate currency and as result, the US dollar was in a strong bull market all through 2005. But it is by no means a certainty that the currency with the higher interest rate will be strongest. If the reason for the high interest rate is runaway inflation, this may undermine confidence in the currency even more than the benefits perceived from the high interest rate.

Stop-loss discipline

As you can see from the description above, there are significant opportunities and risks in foreign exchange markets. Aggressive traders might experience profit/loss swings of 20-30% daily. This calls for strict stop-loss policies in positions that are moving against you.

Fortunately, there are no daily limits on foreign exchange trading and no restrictions on trading hours other than the weekend. This means that there will nearly always be an opportunity to react to moves in the main currency markets and a low risk of getting caught without the opportunity of getting out. Of course, the market can move very fast and a stop-loss order is by no means a guarantee of getting out at the desired level.

But the main risk is really an event over the weekend, where all markets are closed. This happens from time to time as many important political events, such as G7 meetings, are normally scheduled for weekends.

For speculative trading, we always recommend the placement of protective stop-lossorders. With Saxo Bank Internet Trading you can easily place and change such orders while watching market development graphically on your computer screen.

Brief history of Forex trading

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 08:34:00 +0000

Initially, the value of goods was expressed in terms of other goods, i.e. an economy based on barter between individual market participants. The obvious limitations of such a system encouraged establishing more generally accepted means of exchange at a fairly early stage in history, to set a common benchmark of value. In different economies, everything from teeth to feathers to pretty stones has served this purpose, but soon metals, in particular gold and silver, established themselves as an accepted means of payment as well as a reliable storage of value.

Originally, coins were simply minted from the preferred metal, but in stable political regimes the introduction of a paper form of governmental IOUs (I owe you) gained acceptance during the Middle Ages. Such IOUs, often introduced more successfully through force than persuasion were the basis of modern currencies.

Before the First World War, most central banks supported their currencies with convertibility to gold. Although paper money could always be exchanged for gold, in reality this did not occur often, fostering the sometimes disastrous notion that there was not necessarily a need for full cover in the central reserves of the government.

At times, the ballooning supply of paper money without gold cover led to devastating inflation and resulting political instability. To protect local national interests, foreign exchange controls were increasingly introduced to prevent market forces from punishing monetary irresponsibility.

In the latter stages of the Second World War, the Bretton Woods agreement was reached on the initiative of the USA in July 1944. The Bretton Woods Conference rejected John Maynard Keynes suggestion for a new world reserve currency in favour of a system built on the US dollar. Other international institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) were created in the same period as the emerging victors of WW2 searched for a way to avoid the destabilising monetary crises which led to the war. The Bretton Woods agreement resulted in a system of fixed exchange rates that partly reinstated the gold standard, fixing the US dollar at USD35/oz and fixing the other main currencies to the dollar - and was intended to be permanent.

The Bretton Woods system came under increasing pressure as national economies moved in different directions during the sixties. A number of realignments kept the system alive for a long time, but eventually Bretton Woods collapsed in the early seventies following president Nixon's suspension of the gold convertibility in August 1971. The dollar was no longer suitable as the sole international currency at a time when it was under severe pressure from increasing US budget and trade deficits.

The following decades have seen foreign exchange trading develop into the largest global market by far. Restrictions on capital flows have been removed in most countries, leaving the market forces free to adjust foreign exchange rates according to their perceived values.

But the idea of fixed exchange rates has by no means died. The EEC (European Economic Community) introduced a new system of fixed exchange rates in 1979, the European Monetary System. This attempt to fix exchange rates met with near extinction in 1992-93, when pent-up economic pressures forced devaluations of a number of weak European currencies. Nevertheless, the quest for currency stability has continued in Europe with the renewed attempt to not only fix currencies but actually replace many of them with the Euro in 2001.

The lack of sustainability in fixed foreign exchange rates gained new relevance with the events in South East Asia in the latter part of 1997, where currency after currency was devalued against the US dollar, leaving other fixed exchange rates, in particular in South America, looking very vulnerable.

But while commercial companies have had to face a much more volatile currency environment in recent years, investors and financial institutions have found a new playground. The size of foreign exchange markets now dwarfs any other investment market by a large factor. It is estimated that more than USD1,200 billion is traded every day, far more than the world's stock and bond markets combined.

Important Forex Trading Terms

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 08:30:00 +0000

Spread
The spread is the difference between the price that you can sell currency at ( Bid) and the price you can buy currency at ( Ask). The spread on majors is usually 3 pips under normal market conditions. For more information on the trading conditions at Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your Client Station and open the section entitled "Trading Conditions" found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
Pips
A pip is the smallest unit by which a cross price quote changes. When trading forex you will often hear that there is a 3-pip spread when you trade the majors. This spread is revealed when you compare the bid and the ask price, for example EURUSD is quoted at a bid price of 0.9875 and an ask price of 0.9878. The difference is USD 0.0003, which is equal to 3 “pips”.

On a contract or position, the value of a pip can easily be calculated. You know that the EURUSD is quoted with four decimals, so all you have to do is cancel out the four zeros on the amount you trade and you will have the va value of one pip. Thus, on a EURUSD 100,000 contract, one pip is USD 10. On a USDJPY 100,000 contract, one pip is equal to 1000 yen, because USDJPY is quoted with only two decimals.

Trading Scenario – Trading Rising Prices

If you believe that the Euro will strengthen against the dollar you'll want to buy Euro now and sell it back later at a higher price.

Glossary

• Appreciation

An increase in the value of a currency.

• Ask

The price requested by the trader. This usually indicates the lowest price a seller will accept.

• Base currency

The currency that the investor buys or sells (i.e. EUR in EURUSD ).

• Bear

Someone who believes prices are heading down. A bear market is one in which there is a sustained fall in prices and which does not look like it will recover quickly.

• Bid

The price offered by the trader. This usually indicates the highest price a purchaser will pay.

• Bid/Ask

The Bid rate is the rate at which you can sell. The Ask (or offer) rate is the rate at which you can buy.

• Bull

Someone who is optimistic about the market. A bull market is characterised by enthusiastic and sustained buying.

• cross

When trading with currencies, the investor buys one currency with another. These two currencies form the cross: for example, EURUSD .

• Cross rate

An exchange rate that is calculated from two other exchange rates.

• Depreciation/decline

A fall in the value of a currency.

• Exchange rate

What one currency is worth in terms of another, for example the Austrialian dollar might be worth 58 US cents or 70 yen.

Currencies traded freely on foreign-exchange markets have a spot rate (applying to trades settled 'spot', ie, two working days hence) and a forward rate. Countries can determine their exchange rates in a variety of ways.
1. A floating exchange rate system where the currency finds its own level in the market.
2. A crawling or flexible peg system which is a combination of an officially fixed rate and frequent small adjustments which in theory work against a build-up of speculation about a revaluation or devaluation.
3. A fixed exchange-rate system where the value of the currency is set by the government and/or the central bank.

• EURUSD

Means that you trade EUR against dollars. If you buy Euro you pay in dollars and if you sell Euro you receive dollars.

• FX, Forex, Foreign Exchange

All names for the transaction of one currency for another, e.g. you buy £100.00 with USD 150.25 or sell USD 150.25 for £100.00.

• Interbank

Short-term (often overnight) borrowing and lending between banks, as distinct from banks' business with their corporate clients or other financial institutions.

• Interest rate differential

The yield spread between two otherwise comparable debt instruments denominated in different currencies.

• Leverage (gearing)

In this case leverage means that the investor only funds part of the amount traded.

• Long

To buy.

• Long position

A position that increases its value if market prices increase.

• Liquid (-ity)

The capacity to be converted easily and with minimum loss into cash. A liquid market is one in which there is enough activity to satisfy both buyers and sellers. Ultra-short-dated treasury notes are an example of a liquid investment.

• Margin

The deposit required when entering into a position as well as to hold an open position. Your margin status can be monitored in the Account Summary.

• NYSE

The New York Stock Exchange.

• Open position

A position in a currency that has not yet been offset. For example, if you have bought 100,000 USDJPY , you have an open position in USDJPY until you offset it by selling 100,000 USDJPY , thus "closing" the position.

• “Over the counter”

When trading takes place directly between two parties, rather than on an exchange. Over the counter trades can be customised whereas exchange-traded products are often standardised.

• Pips

A pip is the smallest unit by which a Forex cross price quote changes. So if EURUSD bid is now quoted at 0.9767 and it moves up 2 pips, it will be quoted at 0.9769.

• Position

Traders talk of 'taking a position' which simply means buying or selling currency cross. 'Position' can also refer to a trader's cash/securities/currencies balance, whether he or she is short of cash, has money to lend, is overbought or oversold in a currency, etc.

• Risk

Trying to control outcomes to a known or predictable range of gains or losses. Risk management involves several steps which begin with a sound understanding of one's business and the exposures or risks that have to be covered to protect the value of that business. Then an assessment should be made of the types of variables that can affect the business and how best to protect against unwelcome outcomes. Consideration must also be given to the preferred risk profile - whether one is risk- averse or fairly aggressive in approach. This also involves deciding which instruments to use to manage risk, and whether a natural hedge exists that can be used. Once undertaken, a risk-management strategy should be continually assessed for effectiveness and cost.

• Secondary currency (variable currency or counter currency)

The currency that the investor trades the base currency against (i.e. USD in EURUSD ).

• Short position

A position that benefits from a decline in market prices.

• Short

To sell.

• Speculative

Buying and selling in the hope of making a profit, rather than doing so for some fundamental business-related need.

• Spot

A Spot rate is the current market price of an asset.

• Spot market

The part of the market calling for spot settlement of transactions. The precise meaning of 'spot' will depend on local custom for a commodity, security or currency. In the UK, US and Australian foreign-exchange markets, 'spot' means delivery two working days hence.

• Spread

The difference between the bid and the ask rate.

Why trade Forex?

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 08:29:00 +0000

24 hour trading
One of the major advantages of trading forex is the opportunity to trade 24 hours a day from Sunday evening (20:00 GMT) to Friday evening (22:00 GMT). This gives you a unique opportunity to react instantly to breaking news that is affecting the markets.
Superior liquidity
The forex market is so liquid that there are always buyers and sellers to trade with. The liquidity of this market, especially that of the major currencies, helps ensure price stability and narrow spreads. The liquidity comes mainly from banks that provide liquidity to investors, companies, institutions and other currency market players.
No commissions
The fact that forex is often traded without commissions makes it very attractive as an investment opportunity for investors who want to deal on a frequent basis.
Trading the “majors” is also cheaper than trading other cross because of the high level of liquidity. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled "Trading Conditions" found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
100:1 Leverage
Leverage (gearing) enables you to hold a position worth up to 100 times more than your margin deposit. For example, a USD 10,000 deposit can command positions of up to USD 1,000,000 through leverage. You can leverage the first USD 25,000 of your investment up to 100 times and additional collateral up to 50 times.
Profit potential in falling markets
Since the market is constantly moving, there are always trading opportunities, whether a currency is strengthening or weakening in relation to another currency. When you trade currencies, they literally work against each other. If the EURUSD declines, for example, it is because the U.S. dollar gets stronger against the Euro and vice versa. So, if you think the EURUSD will decline (that is, that the Euro will weaken versus the dollar), you would sell EUR now and then later you buy Euro back at a lower price and take your profits. The opposite trading scenario would occur if the EURUSD appreciates.

Introduction to Trading Forex

noreply@blogger.com (Genie) — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 08:24:00 +0000

Foreign Exchange

This short introduction explains the basics of trading Forex online, a brief explanation of the markets and the major benefits of trading Forex online. There are also two scenarios describing the implications of trading in a bear as well as bull market to better acquaint you with some of the risks and opportunities of the largest and most liquid market in the world.

As an additional aid for those who are new to Forex, there is also a glossary at the bottom of this text which explains some of the terms used in connection with currency trading.

Overview

Foreign exchange, forex or just FX are all terms used to describe the trading of the world's many currencies. The forex market is the largest market in the world, with trades amounting to more than USD 1.5 trillion every day. This is more than one hundred times the daily trading on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange). Most forex trading is speculative, with only a few percent of market activity representing governments' and companies' fundamental currency conversion needs.

Unlike trading on the stock market, the forex market is not conducted by a central exchange, but on the “interbank” market, which is thought of as an OTC (over the counter) market. Trading takes place directly between the two counterparts necessary to make a trade, whether over the telephone or on electronic networks all over the world. The main centres for trading are Sydney, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt and New York. This worldwide distribution of trading centres means that the forex market is a 24-hour market.

Trading Forex

A currency trade is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another one. The currency combination used in the trade is called a cross (for example, the Euro/US Dollar, or the GB Pound/Japanese Yen.). The most commonly traded currencies are the so-called “majors” – EURUSD , USDJPY , USDCHF and GBPUSD .

The most important forex market is the spot market as it has the largest volume. The market is called the spot market because trades are settled immediately, or “on the spot”. In practice this means two banking days.

Forward Outrights

For forward outrights, settlement on the value date selected in the trade means that even though the trade itself is carried out immediately, there is a small interest rate calculation left. The interest rate differential doesn't usually affect trade considerations unless you plan on holding a position with a large differential for a long period of time. The interest rate differential varies according to the cross you are trading. On the USDCHF , for example, the interest rate differential is quite small, whereas the differential on NOKJPY is large. This is because if you trade e.g. NOKJPY, you get almost 7% (annual) interest in Norway and close to 0% in Japan. So, if you borrow money in Japan, to finance the trade and buying NOK, you have a positive interest rate differential. This differential has to be calculated and added to your account. You can have both a positive and a negative interest rate differential, so it may work for or against you when you make a trade.

Trading on Margin

Trading on margin means that you can buy and sell assets that represent more value than the capital in your account. Forex trading is usually conducted with relatively small margin deposits. This is useful since it permits investors to exploit currency exchange rate fluctuations which tend to be very small. A margin of 1.0% means you can trade up to USD 1,000,000 even though you only have $10,000 in your account. A margin of 1% corresponds to a 100:1 leverage (or 'gearing'). (Because USD 10,000 is 1% of USD 1,000,000.) Using this much leverage enables you to make profits very quickly, but there is also a greater risk of incurring large losses and even being completely wiped out. Therefore, it is inadvisable to maximise your leveraging as the risks can be very high. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled "Trading Conditions" found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.