Equity Market Pundit

Oil India IPO Allotment.

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 20:50:00 +0000

Robust demand for Oil India's IPO also boosted hopes the government will look to sell more stakes in state firms as it looks to raise funds and cut a widening budget deficit.

The 26.45 million shares on offer priced at Rs1,050 a share, the top of a price range that started at Rs950. The shares account for 11% of the enlarged share capital. In addition to the IPO, the company is selling a further 10% at the IPO price to three state-run refiners. Following the two transactions, the government's stake will decrease from 98.1% to 78.4%.

A Quote from Reuters says "Even if the overall market is weak, we could see a strong listing. We think the shares could see a premium of 20 to 25 percent on the listing day."

Oil India, which is primarily into exploration, development, production and transportation of crude oil and natural gas onshore in India mostly in north-east, is also exploring crude oil and natural gas in Egypt, Gabon, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Timor Leste and Yemen.

Oil India IPO final Subscription Numbers

Total Issue Size 26449982
Total Bids Received 815215116
Total Bids Received at Cut-off Price 11777586
No. of times issue is subscribed 30.82

Bid Details

Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 14427263 776654784 53.8324
Non Institutional Investors 2404544 25192308 10.4770
Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 7213631 12726060 1.7642
Employee Reservation 2404544 641964 0.2670

Oil India IPO Allotment status can be seen at
http://mis.karvycomputershare.com/ipo/

Nifty Monday--25/02/2008

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 18:50:00 +0000

Monday we could see some rally in the Indian markets. This week the most exiting thing will be the Railway Budjet and the Financial Budjet(Is there some thing related to the leap year budjet, I mean any of the superstitions). The news of the Bonus shares in the ratio of 3:5 for the RPL counter will sure light it up. Also given that US markets ended quite well on Friday shall boast the markets. Also look out for Centurain bank of Punjab(Although it is a news now and not a rumor)

For Monday 5184 on the nifty could be a serous resistance followed by 5200 and then 5241. Overall we should still remember that we still have one gap left around 14500 to be filled. So I think in this market whatever be the euphoria just go short on very high you see touching the trendline.

Precious Metals outlook

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 17:56:00 +0000

Past week we so a huge rally in the commodity space. Platinnium led all of them. Looking at all of this I belive the rally in Gold and silver will still continue in the next week too. The data comming from US is quite dissappointing as we all know. This week quite a crucial set of number are awaited esp the Housing numbers. If the bad numbers continue we could well see Euro/Dollar ratio passing 1.5000.This all encourages my view and we could all see a new high being made in the coming week

Now if we are talking about Gold the immediate target looks to be around $968-$972. This is the first targret that we could come across this week at the same time this will pose a serious resistance. The next target if it corsses the $976-980 wil be $1005 while the ultimate for the current wave be around $1026. So if some one wants to go short , if someone sees the $970 mark for the first time he can go short on an intraday basis. And I think if U short around this level you should be in the money in hours.

Silver as in the past will outperform Gold when it enters the fifth wave. The target on silver on the upper side would be around $18.50 and $18.80. Technically we could see some correction in silver,but there is always a chace that gold will pull silver with it. At the same time we should always remember Silver can burn your hands worst than the gasoline.

All the comments are most welcomed. I have mentioned my personal view on the commodity sector

World Economy and Indian Markets

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 18:10:00 +0000

World Economy and Indian Markets

The price of gold will soon make a new high(Although I will sell if I see $938 in next couple of days on intraday basis) People around the globe are running towards precious metals. Platinium makes a new record daily. Silver is outperforming gold. This all could be the economic indicators that we are overlooking. The overall economic scenario around the world looks fragile.Is it too late too talk about this now? What will happen next? what about the India growth story?

The Indian growth story is very much intact I would say but, the world growth tale(fable) doesn't looks so great. So we thought that the subprime crisis gave us the bad times. Hello! this could just be the start. The losses till date reported have come from the sell side firms only which could be around say $400 billion ++. But what about those players who are on the buy side. what about those who have bought these structured products (credit derivatives). They are yet to show up. Even in India it was reported that few banks would have been carrying these items in there portfolio(reported by NDTV profit). Is it over? Not yet. As the grapevine goes we are into the corrective wave of the five way Indian bull market(Elliott wave theory) and not to mention the gap the charts showing gap at around 14500 on the sensex(Indian Index).

What I want to bring to the notice is that there will be some trigger which could take the world markets for the surprise (Dont forget commodity market is also rallying esp. Precious and base metals). So this all need to correct. This happened in 2006 may when all the markets corrected. This time the trigger could be anything inflation, more losses could come out, could be budjet or it could even be Kosovo-Serbia clash.

Some how all this is not fitting right. People should invest keeping all this in mind and be catious. Technically everything needs a correction. We just need to identify are we with the trend or with the correction of that trend.

Any views are most Welcomed

Pay commission, Inflation and the Interest rates...Good, Bad and Ugly

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 17:36:00 +0000

Pay commission, Inflation and the Interest rates...Good, Bad and Ugly

Yes it is true we may have not thought about or talked as what these three could do together. Many people still dont get what pay commission can do the economy specially one like India. Just to highlight---

What is a Pay Commission?
It is an administrative system/mechanism that the Government of India set up in 1956 to determine the salaries of government employees.The First Pay Commission was established in 1956, and since then, every decade has seen the birth of a commission that decides the wages of government employees for a particular time-frame.
'The Fifth Pay Commission (set up in 1994) recommendations resulted in a Rs 530 billion payout by the government. The next (sixth) pay commission would effectively wind up Indian sovereignty.'-- Arun Shourie, former Union minister for divestment, statistics and programme implementation

The sixth pay commission is knocking the door as it has been a long time (Probably by April the report will be submitted) Before elections are held could it be implemented? (Also keep in mind the kind of expenditure it will be during the election for the center and 9 states due this year). Now keep in mind it is being speculated that salary of an employee who is earning Rs 30,ooo fixed after the pay commision will be Rs 80,000.(Still less compared to the kind of salaries corporates give). So where will all this money go ? Yep! This is what will lead to good disposable cash in the hands of goverment eployees that they will spend ...Leading to Inflation ?

Now globally as we see the softning interest rates and more such to come the pressure on RBI to cut the same is rising. and now if we have interest rate cut to add to that Inflationary pressure from the spending which will go up eventualy the economic outlook looks shaky. (Don't worry I hope people in RBI are still working...they sure are as there will be hike from them too).

So what we can do.. Buy Gold (Sure buy at $700/ounce..hope we get that price) Or will the rupee still apreciate to cut the Inflation (Less chance as the cause of inflation post pay commission is different)...Or should we just go long on the FMCG and the White goods Shares (More spending more profit for these companies).

Lets see what is in store for us in future.

Any comments on this topic are most welcomed..

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 16:22:00 +0000

Nifty---19/02/2008---Tuesday

Well as anticipated and posted in my earlier post (Monday outlook) Nifty took the 5340+ as resistance and has now stopped making the intraday high of 5348(quite close uh!). Ok so as mentioned the short position today would have minted money in tones today on the nifty future. Even the Rpower bonus share news and the talk that the iron ore prices will increase by 60% could not help the markets.

So now where do we go from here ? But offcourse down. As 5340-50 is now acting as a good resistance there is little chance of any upside. So I think tommorow ie on tuesday Nifty will not give any much movement on either side but if the markets is in the bad mood we can see the level of 5332 and then 5187 and even upto 5160 if the market remains bearish.(During times like these you can even see extremes that you never calculated) Although the chances of significant upside are less but still 5317 and 5334 will be major resistance for tommorow. The upside cannot be completely ruled out as the technical charts are suggesting esp the MACD. Even then as mentioned earlier 5340-5360 will be a major hurdle in this week

Go short you should be in the moeny soon
Disclaimer : The analysis done and the opinion expressed is my personal view, for just info purpose.

Be the Edge spread Knowledge

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 17:52:00 +0000

Nifty Fifty --- 18-02-2008----Monday

Both the Indian Indices had a very good run last week. Sensex gaining well above 600 points, while Nifty is around 5300 now. But the outlook for medium term remains bearish. In my view the current wave is a corrrective rally and we will soon be looking at new low.

As as there is no possibility of making new highs, what should we do? Ans- Without a doubt go short and you will be in the money. Hence we are watching for 5340+ on Nifty. Boy! if you see this number tomorrow sell a lot of nifty future and no matter what (even if the Warren Buffet starts buying) you will take home handsome cash. Before rising ro this level nifty made a high of 5220 and then sliped into the red and then the current high. 5340-5360 is a major resistance and it should come down from there.

Offcourse have a stoploss of 5410 as this will be the ultimate point for this corrective rally.

Any comments are most welcomed. Knowledge should ever grow.

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 14:14:00 +0000

V-Guard Industries IPO.

Trying to create some excitment again in the Indian primary market is the V-Guard IPO (I hope it is not caught off guard). People who would have invested in Reliance Power would have sure learnt there leasons of not forgeting the fundamentals. Some time you can just jump into the trend when the euphoria is high but you should never forget to buy a return ticket or else the fine to be paid can be huge.

About The Company

Now V-Guard is a Kerala based companie. It manufactures and markets voltage stabilisers under the brand name, V-Guard. The product basket includes various other electrical istrument from UPS to Solar water heater, and Cables. The company is said to be well established in south India and now looking aggresively towards the north. So to cater to rising demand, a second building-cable manufacturing plant is to be set up at Kashipur in Uttaranchal. It will have a capacity of 2,00,000 coils a month of standard length of 90 metres. Moreover, a low-tension cable manufacturing plant and an enameling plant, with a processing capacity of 100 tonnes, is to be put up at Coimbatore, where the existing building-cable unit is located. Development-cum-pilot plants are to be built at Coimbatore (for pumps) and in Himachal Pradesh (for fans and water heaters). Service and distribution centers are to be put up at strategic locations in India. All the projects are to be commissioned by December 2008. An initial public offer (IPO) will partially fund these expansion plans. Also the point to be kept in mind is V-Guard brand enjoys strong recall and credibility, specially in south India. But the same can be its weakness as it is right now concentrated only in that area.

Valuations

The company is offering on block 8 million shares of Rs 10 each in the price band of Rs 80 to Rs 85 per share. The issue will constitute 26.80% of the fully diluted post issue paid up equity share capital of the company. CRISIL has assigned a CRISIL IPO Grade 3/5. Now for V-guard Sales clocked a CAGR of 19% to Rs 222.27 crore in FY 2007 from FY 2003. Pofit after tax posted a CAGR of 29% to Rs 13.50 crore. The reported profit was Rs 18.41 crore in FY 2007,after accounting for an EO income of Rs 4.91 crore on account of profit on sale of investment in two amusement parks at Cochin and Bangalore. The EPS on adjusted net profit excluding EO was Rs 4.5 on post-IPO equity for FY 2007. The five-month annualised EPS for the current year on post-IPO equity works out to Rs 6. On the offer price of Rs 80-Rs 85, the P/E works out 17.8 – 18.9 times FY 2007 earning and 13.3 – 14.1 times latest five-month annualised EPS. Much larger players with much more well known brands like Finolex Cables and Bajaj Electric trade around TTM P/E of 16 times. Numeric Power, leader in UPS, trades at TTM P/E of 11 times.

So it seems that the issue is well priced and hance only long term investors should subscribe given the growth rate it has had till date. Applying for listing gains wont be a risk worth taking given current market scenario.

Website : http://www.vguard.in

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 17:11:00 +0000

Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd. (REC) IPO

Yep its coming, after a long time primary market is going to see some action. And that too form the same power sector. So what is in store for us? The company is going to raise Rs 1640 Crore by issueing 15.61 crore equity shares with a price band of Rs 90 - 105. But will it be the same like Reliance Power? I guess not. Rural electrification is public sector company so the valuations are reasonable. It may have Power grid fan following.

About The Company
REC is one of the leading public financial institutions in Indian power infrastructure, engaged in the financing and promotion of transmission, distribution and generation projects throughout India. The company occupies a unique position within the area of rural electrification of India and it currently administer grants and provide loans as the nodal agency for the RGGVY, which is primarily aimed at the electrification of all villages in India. As a public sector undertaking, it has been accorded `Mini Ratna Grade-I` status by the GoI by virtue of its operational efficiency and financial strength, which affords greater operational freedom and autonomy in decision-making. The company also has long term borrowing rating of AAA by CRISIL. REC was also ranked among the top 10 public sector companies in the past . It has been operating at net interest margin NIM of 3%. The company has NPA's of less than 2%. While the main aim will be to undertake rural electrifiaction, it has also come into urban areas. REC is playing a much larger role. It has developed into a robust agency that provides technological and financial support to all the three sectors: generation, transmission and distribution. REC has atleast got something (Rather than Reliance Power) and making profit.

Valuations
Now to start with REC is a wholly owned Government of India Public Sector Enterprise with a net worth of Rs. 3779 Crore. The issue price band of Rs 90-105 implies a PER of 9.65-11.26X on H1FY08 annualised EPS of Rs 9.32. ( This in my view is absolutely OK compared to other currently in the market even power grid trading at around 20 PE) As the growth of power sector is iminent in the country REC will be a great benificiary. In my view people should apply for the issue.

The article written above is compilation from diffrent sources and my personal opinion.

Initial Public Offer Basics

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Wed, 09 May 2007 11:56:00 +0000

An IPO is an Initial Public Offer made by a company (issuer) offering shares or debentures or other tradable security to the public at large. An IPO is either for a) Fresh issue of capital, where the funds are used for the projects / growth of the company. while a FPO is a Follow- on public offer. here the companies comes with the issue second time or more.

In an IPO price discovery takes place through Book Building process while in an FPO mostly a Fixed price is opted.

Book Built IPO, in which there is a discovery of the price through the price bidding mechanism. Usually, a band (range) of the price is announced, and interested investors apply or bid for the security within this band i.e. the application can be for any price within this range.

The difference between the price band should not be more than 20%

SEBI (Securities' Exchange Board Of India) issues guidlines,which specifies the percentage of the total securities offered for each category of investors from time to time.Currently,in any IPO,the allocation is usually as under:

QIB - 50%

HNI - 15%

Retail - 35%

Following are the entiteis asociated with the IPO

A BRLM is the Book Running Lead Manager,who manages the entire IPO exercise and acts as the guide to the issuer in all maters releting to the public issue. BRLM ensures that all information presented before the investing public is proper.The BRLM advices the company on the price band,the timing of the issue, etc..

A Registrar to an Issue is a SEBI-registered entity,qualified to act as such,and who processes all the application forms and carries out the allotment process,as per the rules/prospectus.The Registrar is responsible for complying with the time deadlines of updating the electronic credit of shares to the successful allottees,dispatching/uploading of refunds and attending to all investor related queries after the issue is compleated.

Crediting of Issue shares

The credit of the shares allotted to you,should be completed within fifteen working days after allotment by the Company from the date of closure of the issue.

The share should be listed within 21 days of closing of offer.

In an Fixed Price Issue,the time deadlines are 30 days from the date of closure (insted of 15 days as in Book Built IPOs) for obtaining the approval of Basis of Allotment,credit of the shares and despatch /credit of refund amounts.

Refund of money

The Registrar has to despatch the Refund order and upload the electronic credit/ECS on or before the end of 15th day from the date of closure of the issue.

Points to remember while applying

Your Demat Account Number is clearly written without any smudging or overwriting etc.
Your payment details like cheque number,bank details etc.are clearly written.
Your bid is for the proper bid lot and a price within the bid range.
The order of names in the application is the same as in your DP account.
All applications have signed the application form.
If required you have submitted the PAN copy and PAN details in application form.

Bollinger Bands - Technical Analysis

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Fri, 04 May 2007 08:24:00 +0000

Bollinger Bands are an indicator that allows users to compare volatility and relative price levels over a period time.The indicator consists of three bands designed to encompass the majority of a security's price action.

A simple moving average in the middle
An upper band (SMA plus 2 standard deviations)
A lower band (SMA minus 2 standard deviations)

Standard deviation is a statistical unit of measure that provides a good assessment of a price plot's volatility.

Bollinger recommends using a 20-day simple moving average for the center band and 2 standard deviations for the outer bands. The length of the moving average and number of deviations can be adjusted to better suit individual preferences and specific characteristics of a security.

Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation

Signals

Double bottom Buy: A Double Bottom Buy signal is given when prices penetrate the lower band and remain above the lower band after a subsequent low forms. Either low can be higher or lower than the other. The important thing is that the second low remains above the lower band. The bullish setup is confirmed when the price moves above the middle band, or simple moving average.

Double Top Sell: A Double Top Sell signal is given when prices peak above the upper band and a subsequent peak fails to break above the upper band. The bearish setup is confirmed when prices decline below the middle band.

Video Boilinger bands

Binani Cement Limited IPO

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Thu, 03 May 2007 19:30:00 +0000

Binani Cement Limited is entering the capital markets. with a Public Offer of 20,500,000 Equity Shares of Rs. 10 each for cash, through an Offer for Sale by JP Morgan Special Situatbns (Mauritius) Limited ("Selling Shareholder"). The Offer shall be through the 100% book - building process.

JP Morgan Chase controlled equity fund picked up 25% in BCL for about Rs 150 crore. It is now selling part of its stake, about 10% of BCL’s equity capital, through the IPO.

The Company posted a T otaT Income of Rs. 5,665mn and a Profit before tax of Rs. 1097mn for the nine months ended December 31, 2006. It posted a T otallncome of Rs 5,840mn and a Profit before tax of Rs 581mn for the year ended March 31, 2006.

The Price Band for the Offer has been fixed between Rs. 75 and Rs. 85 per Equity Share. The Public Offer opens on May 7. 2007. and closes for subscription on May 10, 2007. The Offer shall constitute 10.09% cif the Post-Offer paid-up capital of the Company. The Equity Shares are proposed to be listed on the National Stock Exchange and the Bombay Stock Exchange.

BINANI CEMENT LTD - IPO - 175 crore - bookbuilding - price band 75 to 85 - lot 80- shares - open 7th to 10th - www.binani.com

Insecticides India Ltd IPO

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Thu, 03 May 2007 19:18:00 +0000

Insecticides India Ltd (IIL) has today emerged as a 175 crore enterprise with a credible reputation and core competencies in the area of agro-chemicals.Its range of innovative end-to-end solutions have continuously improved safety of various crops across the country.Many of its products are now a benchmark for the industry. Today, IIL is a frontline performer which has emerged as a preferred brand in India, whose footprints cover the length and breadth of the country with 4 Regional Offices,7 Area Offices and 24 depots. The company has developed a core network of distribution and sales at national level,with representations in all parts of the country. IIL has 5000 distributors and over 50,000 dealers across the country.They have products for both Crop Protection and Urban Pest.

The Initial Public Offering of Insecticides India Ltd will open for subscription on Monday, 7-May-2007. The issue will close for subscription on 11-May-2007

Book Running Lead Manager is UTI Securities Ltd

You can vist the company's website Insecticides India Ltd and get the prospectus at Insecticides India LTD (IPO)

The price band of the issue is between Rs 97 and Rs 115 per equity share and is scheduled to open on May 7 and close on May 11.

RBI Reduces Risk Weight on Housing Loans

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Thu, 03 May 2007 18:57:00 +0000

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday notified the reduction in risk weight on hosing loans for up to Rs 20 lakh from 75 per cent to 50 per cent.

The central bank also reduced the risk weight for banks' investment in mortgage backed securities, issued by the housing finance companies, to 50 per cent from the existing 75 per cent.
RBI, however, said it would review the risk weights after one year keeping in view the default experience and other relevant factors.

Trendline Analysis

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Thu, 03 May 2007 08:20:00 +0000

Hi ALL

The day has been good so far, Indian markets as well as the European markets have shown strength. Probably Nifty will touch new highs.... as we have seen a bounce back from around 4020-4040 levels.

Now let us continue with our discussion on Technical Analysis. Today let us look at the basic of it the Trendline.

A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points and then extends into the future to act as a line of support or resistance. Market normally follows a trend which is depicted by the trendline.

For the up market we draw a trend line by joining succesive lows. and for the down market by joining the highs. The break in the trend line would indicate change in the market trend or direction.

One thing that I have noted recently is that if you exterpolate two or more trendlines so that they join at one single point, that point will correspond to the time where the market will peak or dip.

High points and low points appear to line up better for trend lines when prices are displayed using a semi-log scale. This is especially true when long-term trend lines are being drawn or when there is a large change in price.

Trendline Video

Additional trendline analysis for Forex

MIC Electronics IPO

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Wed, 02 May 2007 18:26:00 +0000

MIC Electronics manufactures of True Colour LED video display systems, MIC is the only company in India to have the capability for manufacture of LED video display systems.The price band for the offer has been fixed between Rs 129 and Rs 150 per equity share.

Risk Involved

It has high risk of technological obsolescence

the company earnings are primarily dependent on the business of LED Display Systems

Nichia Corporation is primary source Raw Material.

Positives

The management says the 30.8% earning before interest, depreciation, taxes and amortisation (EBIDTA) margin of the segment in FY ended June 2006 has improved to about 40% in the six months ended December 2006 on reduction in R & D cost.

The current global LED display market size is around US$ 3.55 billion and is expected to reach US$ 3.9 billion by 2007. The LED market has shown a CAGR of 15.98% from FY 2004 to FY 2007. Internationally, LED display renting is one of the fastest growing segments in the live entertainment industry, with a size of around US$ 210 million and is expected to grow by 12.5% year on year.

The order book of the three divisions stood at Rs 167.86 crore end January 2007, which is 2.5 times the revenue for six months ended December 2006. Of this, 33.92% of the orders are for LED video display systems, 3.57% for the IT division and the balance 62.49% bagged by the communications segment.

Since it has monopoly in India and also that it is growing with a CAGR of around 16 percent and,The LED business has excellent growth potential I think people should subscribe for this IPO

IPO Grading Made Compulsory

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Wed, 02 May 2007 18:02:00 +0000

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has taken the plunge and made the grading of IPOs mandatory. From May 1, any promoter knocking on the doors of Sebi with a draft prospectus will need to get his offering graded by a credit rating agency.

“The issuer shall be required to disclose all the grades obtained by it for its IPO in the prospectus, abridged prospectus, issue advertisements and all other places where the issuer is advertising for the IPO,” a Sebi amendment to the Disclosure and Investor Protection Guidelines, 2000, issued on Monday, states.

SEBI has also amended the guidelines on qualified institutional placements (QIPs). Only companies with a one-year trading history will be allowed to raise funds through QIPs.

source dnaindia.com

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Wed, 02 May 2007 16:59:00 +0000

Technical Analysis RSI Indicator

The day has been so far moving nowhere Indian markets remained closed .... In the commodity segment precious metals say Gold is moving no where and still hovering aroud $ 671.

So now let us gain some knowledge about yet another Indicator ....RSI

RSI is Relative strenth index, A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the following formula:
RSI = 100 - (100/(1+RS))

RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes As you can see from the chart below, the RSI ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued.

Trading Futures using RSI

Technical Analysis MACD

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Wed, 02 May 2007 07:50:00 +0000

Hi ALL

Wanted to give new face to the blog .... Now onwards will foucs on whole financial side ....

So for this I thought .... to predict the market may be a index like nifty or sensex...or any stock we need to ... whats called " Technical Analysis "

As a part of this we will first look into the MACD indicator today with this video...

MACD is Moving Average Convergence-Divergence Indicator, The MACD was developed by Gerald Appel, and is based on exponential moving averages (EMA).

The MACD indicator is the difference between two exponential moving averages (12 and 26 as default) and also has a signal trigger or timing line (9 day ema as default). When values of the MACD indicator move above the zero level, it is similar to a moving average crossover signal described previously to identify uptrends.

Here is one of the Vids explaing it

Video One

Video Two

Video Three

Nifty Fifty ..heading downdy

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 04:11:00 +0000

Nifty's Future Move

Hi there again....

As posted earlier ....there were signs of weakness in Nifty Fifty. The weakness was shown by simple trendline analysis (thats what I call)...Now the question is are...going to witness a complete downfall...???

Nifty is currently at 3774...and the kind of candlestick it is showing is or can be termed as bearish engulfing ...for conformation we need to wait till monday...

While I also looking at support for nifty at about 3741...which would decide weather the last leg of upside is still there..

Happy Investing

Market uproar, Nifty cool down on cards

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Wed, 25 Apr 2007 16:48:00 +0000

Markets may Cool in after 2 or three session Nifty may correct before settlement

Hi ALL

It is quite impossible to really find the level at which market would stop....Once the level of 4100 is crossed ...and the RBI not really looking for tightning this time ..
Nifty can sure see levels of 4200++...will it touch 4340?? time will decide...

But from the charts and the trend line there is a word of caution..we could see a fall in market in few days may 2 or 3 sessions at most...

Few stocks which include Teledata In. and Atlanta had a great rally...and we hope it will continue..

Nifty Looking very strong

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Tue, 21 Nov 2006 15:00:00 +0000

Hello People

The Market is on the move and looks like the bears have given away. It was suprising for nifty to gain over 1.5% and close at 3918 levels .

But one should not expect the same to happen the same tomorrow as so speed braker may be ahead..

I thik the level of 3921 was and is important and if ( as it seems ) nifty may cross it quite easily market may however take a breather at 3940 and 3958 levels where the 100% uptrend ends.

Market may however go well above and well reach upto 1.618 times the previous wave which would be 4318.00 levels on the nifty

For the future we may also see a hault at 4040 levels

Nifty is on a move..

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Mon, 20 Nov 2006 18:24:00 +0000

Nifty is on a move..

Hi People

Yes Guys as told to you earlier in my blog that the target for nifty on the downside could be 3797 and no more and hence it jumped from there and covered most of the losses for the day.

I have earlier pointed out that a new wave of bullishness is suppose to start and market could take reach up to 3940 levels on nifty ( not precise yet )..

So it is time to be long again and people can stay invested till the next level is attended on nifty

The next question would be where will the nifty be tomorrow ..I say nifty should take a breather at 3833 and the next 3857 levels ( these are ofcousre not the points where the correction starts though).

I may have mentioned to some people that this could be the fifth way..but now I think this could be the fifth wave of the third wave of lessor degree and the fifth wave could be extended.

Any views and comments are most welcome.

The Correction is Over for the Markets on Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 16:59:00 +0000

Nifty Headed North ( Is the Correction over ?)

Hi All

With Reference to my las t post in my blog..........

So we saw a steep fall today but you may wonder if it is still going to fall and is that the rally is over.

But in my view the the correction that we saw today was of very short term in nature and a new rally is in the begining that will take us to the new highs and take the nifty to the levels of 3940 as I said to you earlier ..

I do belive that this perticulr level of 3940 shall bring in a major correction that may bring us too the same level as we are today . For the longterm the bullish sentiment is here to say .

I think that we are in the third wave of intemediate term which should atlest go on to the levels of 3940 if not more ( as the third wave is never the shotrest ) The steep fall that we saw in the month of may is still away ( Praobably at the 4980 levels of the nifty which is too far ( We would ofcourse have the midterm correction as we had today and some of the larger degree)

For Monday if we still see a fall it should not exced any below 3821 and the next support level of 3797.

I do invitte the views of people who follow the Eliott waves and the Fibonacci series.

Happy Trading

Nifty Looking Weak for remaning Week

noreply@blogger.com (BishopGuy) — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 16:35:00 +0000

Nifty Looking Weak For Remaning Week For Date 171106

Hi All

If you refer to the last blog the resistance anad support ( 3898 and 3868 respectively ) as stated for the day stands tall . Nifty touched the high of 3900.15 and started falling ( pretty near to the target ..right) Then it found support for the day at 3864.55 ( that's close too) But the million dollar question is what would you expect to happen tommorow....

Well if I am right nifty has started following a new channel..now and the upward movement could be restricted for the time being ( which I feel is good for long term). So what for the day traders..Ofcourse the stock specific action and the Banks are going to have a very happy christmas..what say..

So for tomorow I would say a bit of downside is still remaning on the downside we do have a very good support at the 3856-3860 levels. and should see a bounce back if it touches or comes near it..If the heavy correction continues for a day or two we would see a low of 3808-05. But strictly not below it at this point of time

While we may move sideways ( as nifty normally does ) the upside could be halted at the previously stated and proved resistance of 3880-83. In an Bulish tone the market may still find it very difficult to cross 3905.

It will we very important for the scrip to pass the levels of 3880-83.

Happy Trading For The DAY