Eye On the Tigers

Should Andy Dirks be Replaced in LF?

2013-06-19T18:27:00.000-04:00

Andy Dirks has been disappointing this year, hitting .238/..291/.338 before today's game. And he's been especially awful his last 17 games, hitting .183/.216/.197 from May 26th - June 17th. This is after hitting .322/.370/.487 in 344 PA in 2012, leading many people to believe he can be an above-average everyday left fielder. He hit .274/.354/.397 against left-handed pitching, proving that he didn't need a platoon partner. However, he has failed to sustain his .365 BABIP, which means that 2012 couldn't been a fluke all around. He's only hitting left-handers at a .182/.250/.273 clip so far this year.

James Schmehl at MLive recently posed the question that Andy Dirks' job could be in jeopardy when the Tigers need a starting pitcher on Thursday. When Anibal Sanchez went on the disabled list, instead of recalling a pitcher right away, the Tigers elected to call up Avisail Garcia again. This is indication that the Tigers might at least be thinking about sending Dirks down to AAA; they currently have 11 pitchers on their roster and Leyland normally keeps 12. If Andy Dirks does become the odd man out, there are 3 viable candidates to take his place, Matt Tuiasosopo, Avisail Garcia and Nick Castellanos - all have their positives and negatives.

Matt Tuiasosopo:

Why he should be the everyday LF: He's been hitting excellent this year, .333/.465/.551 before today's game. He's been hitting for average, power (.217 ISO), and patience (17.4% BB rate). His 183 wRC+ demands more playing time.

Why he shouldn't be the everyday LF: Before this year, Tuiasosopo was a career .176/.234/.306 hitter and hadn't seen ML pitching since 2010. At age 27 it's hard to believe that he's all of a sudden figured everything out. Some of his stats do suggest a regression. His BABIP is at an unsustainable .417 as it's hard to believe he can keep a 29.4% LD rate. His HR/FB ratio is at 21.4% but his career rate is only 13.1%.

Avisail Garcia:

Why he should be the everyday LF: He's one of the Tigers top prospects that has some success against ML pitching. In his limited time in the majors, he's hit .296/.339/.391 while adding power in 2013 with a batting line of .279/.315/.441 with 2 HR. In his first 10 games at AAA, he hit .467/.489/.578, suggesting that he has nothing more to learn in the minors. The Tigers keep adding him to the roster whenever there's a spot open, even though Leyland hasn't played him as much as most people would like.

Why he shouldn't be the everyday LF: There is one stat that stands out that needs improving with Garcia - his walk rate. It's at 5.5% so far this year and it was regularly in the 3-4% range all through the minors. At 22 years old, he needs to play everyday as he continues to mature as a hitter and Leyland has been criticized for playing Don Kelly more over Garcia. If Garcia isn't getting the playing time in the majors, then he needs to get them in the minors.

Nick Castellanos:

Why he should be the everyday LF: He's the Tigers #1 prospect and he's been playing like one so far this year. He's hitting .293/.366/.477 so far this year at AAA and he's been especially great lately. After hitting .237/.284/.391 in his first 169 PA, he's hit .359/.455/.580 in his last 156 PA. He's showing that he has nothing more to prove in AAA.

Why he shouldn't be the everyday LF: He has no ML experience. That could be dangerous, giving a rookie an everyday role in the middle of a playoff race who has been known to struggle after getting promoted after every step in the minors. The Tigers might not want to take the risk of having him lose confidence and like Garcia, Castellanos should be getting everyday playing time as he matures as a hitter.

It's very likely that the Tigers will send down Avisail Garcia to make room for Jose Alvarez on Thursday. At the very least, Dirks might lose some playing time to Matt Tuiasosopo without him actually taking over the position. As bad as Dirks has been on the hitting side, advanced stats show that Dirks has been excellent on defense so far this year as Patrick O'Kennedy of Bless You Boys has pointed out. This has given Dirks a 0.8 fWAR and a 0.9 rWAR, which means he's on pace for about a 1.5 WAR. While that's below average, it doesn't really warrant a trip to AAA either.

Besides, the Tigers have more pressing needs, such as the bullpen and the Jose Valverde situation.

Update: Avisail Garica has indeed been sent back to AAA to make room for Jose Alvarez.

Applying Leverage Index to the Closing Situation

2013-06-13T17:59:00.000-04:00

Yesterday, Jose Valverde blew his third save in twelve chances and his second in six games. In his last six games, Valverde has pitched 5 1/3 innings, giving up 10 hits, 7 earned runs, 5 home runs, 6 strikeouts and 1 walk for an 11.81 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. His ERA went from 0.75 on May 27th to 4.15 after yesterday's disaster. All in all, Tiger fans across the blogosphere and Twitterville are questioning if the Jose Valverde closer experiment has failed and if a change is imminent.

Bless You Boys: Tigers Closer Jose Valverde on the hot seat
Pepper Baseball: Enough is Enough for Papa Grande...Right?
Motor City Bengals: Is Jose Valverde Dancing His Way Out of Town?
Walk Off Woodward: A Plea to Tigers Brass: End the Jose Valverde Experiment
Tiger Snark: No More Potato, Please
Motown Sports: Just How Long.......
Detroit Tigers.com Forum: ABBA Grande, The Dancing Queen

In one Tweet, tell me what the Tigers should do to solve their bullpen issues. I'll use a handful of them on MLive.
— Chris Iott (@Chris_Iott) June 13, 2013

To answer this question, I decided to look at how Tigers pitchers performed in high leverage situations:

Rk		G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Jose Alvarez	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1		.000	.000	.000	.000
2	Anibal Sanchez	10	27	24	7	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	6	6.00	.167	.185	.250	.435
3	Al Alburquerque	7	22	18	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	3.00	.167	.273	.167	.439
4	Drew Smyly	10	30	27	1	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	2.67	.185	.267	.185	.452
5	Joaquin Benoit	16	48	43	2	9	2	0	0	0	0	4	13	3.25	.209	.277	.256	.532
6	Justin Verlander	12	54	48	14	11	5	0	0	1	0	4	18	4.50	.229	.296	.333	.630
7	Luke Putkonen	3	10	9	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2.00	.333	.400	.333	.733
8	Max Scherzer	11	55	46	13	13	2	0	1	0	0	6	14	2.33	.283	.352	.391	.743
9	Doug Fister	12	76	69	25	22	5	1	1	0	0	3	7	2.33	.319	.347	.464	.810
10	Darin Downs	11	28	24	8	6	2	0	1	0	0	4	7	1.75	.250	.357	.458	.815
11	Jose Valverde	10	38	33	7	8	0	0	3	1	0	5	9	1.80	.242	.342	.515	.857
12	Bruce Rondon	1	5	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		.500	.400	.500	.900
13	Phil Coke	9	36	30	8	10	3	0	1	0	0	4	6	1.50	.333	.412	.533	.945
14	Rick Porcello	9	37	33	13	13	1	0	2	0	0	4	6	1.50	.394	.459	.606	1.066
15	Jose Ortega	5	22	17	5	5	0	0	2	0	0	4	5	1.25	.294	.429	.647	1.076
16	Octavio Dotel	4	6	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.00	.400	.500	.600	1.100
17	Brayan Villarreal	4	12	6	3	2	1	0	1	1	0	5	4	0.80	.333	.636	1.000	1.636
	Team Total	57	508	438	117	118	24	1	12	16	4	52	116	2.23	.269	.343	.411	.754

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/13/2013.

Leverage Index attempts to quantify pressure based on the inning, score, outs and baserunners; high leverage is high pressure situations, low leverage is low pressure situations. From FanGraphs:

During the course of a game, some situations are more tense and suspenseful than others. For instance, we know that a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth inning is more suspenseful than a one-run lead in the top of the third inning. Batting with two runners on and two outs in the eighth inning is filled with more pressure than batting in the same situation in the second inning. Leverage Index (LI) is merely an attempt to quantify this pressure so we can determine if a player has been used primarily in high-leverage or low-leverage situations.

From the table above, Baseball-reference used a Leverage Index of 1.5 to determine high leverage situations. Al Alburquerque, Drew Smyly and Joaquin Benoit have been the Tigers best relievers in high leverage situations. Alburquerque has been sent down to AAA because of control issues, so that leaves Smyly and Benoit as the best options in high leverage situations.

One of the problems of just using the best reliever for high leverage situations as the closer is that sometimes a situation will occur earlier in the game that is more high leverage than the ninth inning. It's because of this that people argue that the closer position is overrated. And I agree. I want Drew Smyly to come in the game in a crucial moment instead of waiting until the 9th inning. I also want Drew Smyly to stay in the game until it's finished, essentially being a multiple-inning closer.

Drew Smyly is a starter by trade, so limiting him to just 1 inning doesn't make sense. He also isn't going to start anytime soon since the first time the Tigers needed a spot starter, they called upon Jose Alvarez, saying that Smyly wasn't stretched out enough. Leyland has primarily used Smyly in the middle innings and based on the leverage situations, his role can be labeled as "mop up." 122 of his 152 (80%) batters faced have come in low or medium leverage situations despite his great numbers in high leverage situations. Arguably, small samples need apply. 30 batters is hardly anything concrete. Also, using Smyly like this will cause him to miss 1-2 days between appearances.

However, Joaquin Benoit has been just as good as Smyly in high leverage situations and 44% of his batters faced have been in such situations. Having a plan where both Smyly and Benoit alternate the closer role, each going both the 8th and 9th (and sometimes the 7th) is what I think, the best solution. Putting a relief pitcher in the game and not taking him out until either a) he's tired or b) ineffective is a strategy that I've always believed in (unless of course that pitcher has severe split numbers. I'm looking at your direction, Phil Coke). Changing pitchers until one of them blows the game is a fear I never want to see happen.

The last time a Tigers starting pitcher failed to go at least 6 innings was Rick Porcello on May 23rd. That means the Tigers have gone 19 consecutive games where the starter has gone at least 6 innings. In fact 48 of the 64 games (75%) the Tigers have played, the starter has gone at least 6 innings. The need for a "long man" in the Tigers bullpen just isn't there. The best way to maximize Smyly's talents is to use him late in the game.

The Tigers already have relievers capable of closing. Jim Leyland just needs to use them properly.

Most Wins Without a Complete Game

2013-06-07T15:55:00.001-04:00

Yesterday Max Scherzer pitched another brilliant game, 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K while lowering his season ERA to 3.24. He reached the magic number of pitches, exactly 100, and was promptly replaced. Again, it left fans wondering just when Scherzer would get a chance at a complete game.

Below is the table of pitchers with the most wins without a complete game, something that Fox Sports Detroit seems to show whenever Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello is pitching:

Rk	Player	W	From	To	Age	G	GS	GF	L	W-L%	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+
1	Max Scherzer	60	2008	2013	23-28	154	145	2	42	.588	0	888.0	828	416	377	290	929	3.82	112
2	Tony Armas	53	1999	2008	21-30	185	167	7	65	.449	0	925.2	891	519	478	431	680	4.65	94
3	Rick Porcello	50	2009	2013	20-24	131	130	1	45	.526	0	748.2	861	414	383	191	431	4.60	93
4	Scott Olsen	37	2005	2010	21-26	130	127	0	49	.430	0	723.0	778	446	390	291	528	4.85	88
5	Bud Norris	33	2009	2013	24-28	111	110	0	42	.440	0	639.2	637	340	306	265	604	4.31	92
6	Ivan Nova	31	2010	2013	23-26	72	66	5	15	.674	0	400.1	431	209	197	140	303	4.43	95
7	Lance Lynn	27	2011	2013	24-26	65	43	4	9	.750	1	285.2	249	111	109	101	296	3.43	111
8	Mike Minor	26	2010	2013	22-25	66	65	1	17	.605	0	381.1	354	180	169	111	337	3.99	99
9	Chris Narveson	26	2006	2013	24-31	97	63	9	18	.591	0	396.2	394	213	205	150	326	4.65	87
10	Mike Thurman	26	1997	2002	23-28	105	87	9	36	.419	0	493.2	537	311	277	190	296	5.05	89

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 6/7/2013.

All of these pitchers have pitched within the last 15 years and only Tony Armas, Scott Olsen and Mike Thurman haven't pitched in 2013 from this list. With specialized roles in the bullpen and an emphasis on pitch counts, it has already become more common to not get a complete game out of a pitcher for his career, but I don't think we're there yet in regards to Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello. It seems like both Scherzer and Porcello have taken a step forward this year, therefore it is now a matter of "when" not "if" they can go the distance.

Max Scherzer has pitched 5 games this year while going at least 8 innings. That's already 1 more than his career high of 4 games in 2010, for which if it wasn't for an extra inning game, he would have already recorded a complete game by going 9 innings.

Below is a game log for Scherzer first sorted by number of innings, then number of pitches:

Date	IP	Pitches
9/1/2010	9	106
5/10/2013	8	103
4/24/2011	8	104
4/17/2013	8	105
5/4/2013	8	105
5/4/2011	8	109
7/2/2010	8	110
9/7/2012	8	110
9/1/2012	8	113
7/16/2011	8	116
5/21/2013	8	118
5/31/2013	8	119
8/26/2010	8	121
9/22/2010	8	121
6/17/2012	8	122

3 of the top 5 happened this year; he's getting closer. Now it is up to Jim Leyland to put him back out there in the 9th.

For Rick Porcello, he only has 1 game in 2013 where he's gone 8 innings, therefore his complete game bid has been more spread out. However, he's been much more efficient with his pitches:

Date	IP	Pitches
5/22/2011	8	84
8/1/2009	8	91
7/21/2012	8	94
5/1/2012	8	98
7/17/2010	8	99
5/28/2013	8	99
9/9/2010	8	105
9/26/2010	8	107
7/29/2011	8	107

I'm not exactly sure what Leyland's mindset was in the May game in 2011, as it looks like Porcello could have gotten a complete game without reaching the magic 100 pitch count.

After the implosion against the Angels, Porcello has a 3.48 ERA and is averaging exactly a strikeout an inning in 7 starts as he seems to have taken a big step forward this year.

Tigers Waste Two Great Pitching Performances

2013-05-31T13:27:00.001-04:00

Pitching wins is a stat that traditionalists hang onto despite the known flaws and better alternatives. There was even a debate about it spawned off an article about Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout in the comments at Bless You Boys. The flaw of course is that the pitcher is at the mercy of the offense; he can’t get the win if his offense doesn’t give him any runs. There have now been two recent incidents of this:

Player	Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K
Rick Porcello	5/28/2013	8	3	0	1	11
Doug Fister	5/30/2013	7	4	0	1	12

The Tigers were shutout in both games and therefore each pitcher didn’t get a win. One alternative to pitching wins is to just look at Game Score, a stat created by Bill James. To calculate Game Score:

Start with 50 points
Add 1 point for each out, so 3 points for each inning
Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4^th inning
Add 1 point for each strikeout
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed
Subtract 4 points for each earned run
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run
Subtract 1 point for each walk

Game Score attempts to measure the strength of the pitcher’s start; the higher the score, the better the start. Lee Panas at Tiger Tales used Game Score to point out one of Justin Verlander’s recent starts was one of the worst of his career. To look at the opposite direction, here are the Tigers best Game Scores so far in 2013:

Rk	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pit	Str	GSc
1	Anibal Sanchez	2013-05-24	DET	MIN	W 6-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	1	0	0	3	12	0	130	85	94
2	Anibal Sanchez	2013-04-26	DET	ATL	W 10-0	GS-8 ,W	8.0	5	0	0	1	17	0	121	84	88
3	Rick Porcello	2013-05-28	DET	PIT	L 0-1	GS-8	8.0	3	0	0	1	11	0	99	67	86
4	Doug Fister	2013-05-30	DET	PIT	L 0-1	GS-7	7.0	4	0	0	1	12	0	116	73	80
5	Max Scherzer	2013-05-21	DET	CLE	W 5-1	GS-8 ,W	8.0	2	1	1	1	7	0	118	77	80
6	Justin Verlander	2013-05-05	DET	HOU	W 9-0	GS-7 ,W	7.0	2	0	0	2	9	0	116	80	80
7	Max Scherzer	2013-05-04	DET	HOU	W 17-2	GS-8 ,W	8.0	3	1	1	2	8	1	105	74	78
8	Max Scherzer	2013-04-17	DET	SEA	W 2-1	GS-8	8.0	6	1	1	1	12	0	105	75	77
9	Anibal Sanchez	2013-04-14	DET	OAK	W 10-1	GS-7 ,W	7.0	3	1	1	4	8	0	113	68	71
10	Justin Verlander	2013-04-30	DET	MIN	W 6-1	GS-7 ,W	7.0	5	1	1	2	8	0	114	73	69

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 5/31/2013.

In Rick Porcello's case, that was the best Game Score of his career. Both Porcello and Fister's starts are in the top 5 best pitching performances so far this year - yet they have nothing to show for their efforts.

Historically, how do they rank in Tigers history? Using Baseball Reference's Play Index, I set the parameters to include the Tigers best Game Scores in which the pitcher didn't get the win (either a no decision or a loss) set back as far as it will go, to 1916:

Rk	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	GSc
1	Les Mueller	1945-07-21	DET	PHA	T 1-1	GS-20	19.2	13	1	0	5	6	0	112
2	Eric Erickson	1918-05-24	DET	WSH	T 2-2		16.0	8	2	1	0	12	0	112
3	Al Aber	1954-08-13	DET	CHW	L 0-1	CG 16 ,L	15.1	9	1	1	3	8	0	101
4	Harry Coveleski	1916-05-19	DET	NYY	T 2-2		16.0	8	2	2	6	7	0	99
5	Tommy Bridges	1942-08-11 (1)	DET	CLE	T 0-0		14.0	9	0	0	5	8	0	97
6	Schoolboy Rowe	1941-09-21 (2)	DET	CHW	T 1-1		14.0	8	1	1	3	6	0	95
7	Harry Coveleski	1916-07-02	DET	CHW	L 0-1		11.2	5	1	1	0	8	0	93
8	Jim Bunning	1963-04-20	DET	BOS	L 3-4	GS-12	12.0	7	1	1	2	10	0	92
9	Jim Bunning	1957-05-21	DET	BAL	W 2-1	GS-13	13.0	10	1	1	2	11	1	92
10	Ralph Branca	1953-09-05	DET	SLB	L 0-1	CG 12 ,L	11.0	4	1	1	1	8	1	92

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 5/31/2013.

Neither Porcello or Fister's start made the list. However, looking at everyone on the list, each one pitched more than 9 innings. In this day and age, that feat is rare. Changing the parameters so that the maximum innings are set to 9, produces this list:

Rk	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pit	Str	GSc
1	Mickey Lolich	1969-06-09	DET	SEP	L 2-3	GS-9	9.0	4	1	1	1	16	1			90
2	Earl Wilson	1966-07-06	DET	CAL	L 0-1	GS-9	9.0	4	0	0	1	11	0			89
3	Rick Porcello	2013-05-28	DET	PIT	L 0-1	GS-8	8.0	3	0	0	1	11	0	99	67	86
4	Jeff Weaver	2002-06-12	DET	MON	L 1-2	GS-9	9.0	2	1	1	2	9	1	117	82	86
5	Schoolboy Rowe	1935-09-22	DET	SLB	L 0-1		9.0	4	1	1	0	10	0			85
6	Justin Verlander	2012-04-05	DET	BOS	W 3-2	GS-8	8.0	2	0	0	1	7	0	105	66	84
7	Jack Morris	1988-07-26	DET	KCR	W 2-1	GS-9	9.0	4	1	1	1	10	0	127	87	84
8	Dan Petry	1985-09-28	DET	BOS	L 0-2	GS-9	9.0	2	0	0	4	5	0			84
9	Dave Wickersham	1964-05-10 (1)	DET	BAL	L 1-2	CG 9 ,L	9.0	3	2	0	4	11	0			84
10	Max Scherzer	2010-09-01	DET	MIN	L 1-2	GS-9	9.0	4	1	1	1	9	0	106	76	83
11	Jim Bunning	1960-08-02 (2)	DET	NYY	L 2-3	GS-9	8.0	2	1	1	2	11	0			83
12	Tommy Bridges	1940-05-11	DET	CHW	L 0-1		9.0	2	1	1	2	6	0			83
13	Frank Lary	1958-09-03	DET	CHW	L 0-1	CG 9 ,L	9.0	2	1	1	2	5	0			82
14	Justin Verlander	2012-08-23	DET	TOR	W 3-2	GS-9	9.0	4	2	2	2	12	1	115	76	81
15	Mickey Lolich	1965-09-22	DET	CHW	L 1-2	CG 9 ,L	9.0	5	2	1	1	11	1			81
16	Ted Gray	1951-08-12	DET	SLB	W 2-1		8.0	3	1	1	3	12	1			81
17	Vic Sorrell	1932-04-17	DET	SLB	L 0-1		9.0	3	1	1	1	5	0			81
18	Doug Fister	2013-05-30	DET	PIT	L 0-1	GS-7	7.0	4	0	0	1	12	0	116	73	80
19	Willie Blair	1999-04-12	DET	MIN	L 0-1	GS-8	8.0	3	0	0	0	4	0	92	58	80
20	Jack Morris	1990-07-27	DET	BOS	L 0-1	CG 9 ,L	9.0	4	1	0	2	5	0	122	78	80
21	Mark Fidrych	1976-07-29	DET	BAL	L 0-1	CG 9 ,L	9.0	6	1	0	1	8	0			80
22	Earl Whitehill	1929-08-23	DET	WSH	L 0-1		9.0	4	1	1	0	5	0			80

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 5/31/2013.

I had to expand the list to 22 to get both of Porcello and Fister's starts on the list. One interesting note is that there wasn't an instance of two top Game Score non-wins in the same year with a maximum of nine innings until 2012 - and both were by Verlander, one at the beginning and one at the end of the year. The two starts in 2013 happened just days apart!

Brayan Pena Should Not be an Everyday Starter

2013-05-21T19:05:00.000-04:00

It's the end of May and just past the ¼ mark of the season, which means there's enough playing time for people to stop using the "it's early" and "small sample size" excuses. One such instance is Alex Avila, who has gotten off to a horrible start, hitting only .179/.256/.304 with a 51 wRC+ in 125 PA. In the meantime, Brayan Pena has much better numbers, hitting .275/.296/.412 with an 88 wRC+, but in only 55 PA. Tiger fans are fed up and want a change.

@eyeontigers @bossofrenfield Right now, Pena is far superior to Avila.Avila has been a complete turd. Pena needs more playing time right now
— Jonathan Knerr (@JonathanKnerr) May 21, 2013

As well as posts from Detroit Tigers.com message board and Motown Sports message board.

Looking deeper in the numbers, it doesn't appear that Pena would be much of an upgrade.

First of all, historical stats say that Avila is a better hitter:

Brayan Pena:

Year	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
2010	174	0.253	0.306	0.335	6.9%	15.5%	0.288	75
2011	240	0.248	0.288	0.338	5.0%	10.0%	0.277	70
2012	226	0.236	0.262	0.321	4.0%	10.6%	0.254	55
2010-2012	640	0.245	0.284	0.331	5.2%	11.7%	0.272	66

Alex Avila:

Year	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
2010	333	0.228	0.316	0.340	10.8%	21.3%	0.299	81
2011	551	0.295	0.389	0.506	13.2%	23.8%	0.384	141
2012	434	0.243	0.352	0.384	14.1%	24.0%	0.327	104
2010-2012	1318	0.260	0.358	0.423	12.9%	23.2%	0.343	114

Even if Avila's 2011 season gets heavily discounted because of a fluky career year, his 81 wRC+ in 2010 is still better than any of the last 3 years by Pena. The only year that Pena has done better than an 81 wRC+ and had significant playing time was in 2009, when he had a 94 wRC+. The same principle of fluky career year could also be applied to that year too since he hasn't come close to matching that until the 13 games he's played so far this year.

So maybe Pena is doing something different. Maybe he's changed his approach to become a more successful hitter?

Year	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2010	0.295	16.3%	45.0%	38.8%
2011	0.261	22.9%	44.3%	32.8%
2012	0.253	24.6%	48.2%	27.2%
2013	0.279	11.1%	57.8%	31.1%
Career	0.266	20.9%	48.8%	30.3%

There's definitely a huge increase of ground balls, and a decrease in line drives. Pena has 14 hits and 7 of them have been hit on the ground (including 3 infield hits). That's 50% of his hits coming from ground balls compared to 34% in both 2012 and his career. Pena isn't the fleetest of foot, so to have him have continued success by hitting ground balls instead of line drives isn't very likely. This is likely random variance from only playing in 13 games.

Here are his plate discipline numbers:

Year	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%
2010	31.4%	64.5%	48.5%	65.6%	90.5%	82.7%	51.7%
2011	28.7%	61.0%	45.1%	79.4%	93.9%	89.4%	50.6%
2012	31.9%	60.4%	46.5%	76.7%	94.5%	88.5%	51.1%
2013	29.5%	63.0%	45.9%	67.7%	95.2%	86.2%	48.8%
Career	30.5%	61.2%	45.8%	76.7%	93.5%	87.9%	49.8%

There isn't much difference in his 2013 numbers than his recent seasons or his career totals. The stat with the most difference is his O-Contact rate is lower, which means when he swings at pitches out of the strike zone, he's missing more often. That is the opposite of an improvement.

What about Avila? Is he doing something different to cause less success?

Year	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2010	0.278	21.5%	43.5%	35.0%
2011	0.366	21.7%	37.8%	40.5%
2012	0.313	23.8%	46.4%	29.8%
2013	0.219	19.7%	50.0%	30.3%
Career	0.316	21.7%	42.8%	35.5%

Avila's BABIP is down almost 100 points from last year and his career. His batted ball data doesn't have a dramatic change from his previous seasons and his career. Therefore, it's reasonable to conclude that Avila is either suffering from BABIP bad luck or an injury is causing it.

Avila's plate disciple numbers:

Year	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%
2010	23.4%	64.3%	44.2%	52.3%	86.8%	77.8%	50.7%
2011	24.7%	60.2%	43.0%	49.0%	86.1%	75.8%	51.5%
2012	20.9%	58.7%	39.3%	51.6%	82.1%	73.8%	48.8%
2013	20.3%	62.8%	42.0%	46.3%	79.3%	71.5%	51.0%
Career	22.6%	61.1%	42.1%	49.9%	84.7%	75.5%	50.5%

Avila's main problem is his Contact%, both in the strike zone and out of the zone. He's swinging and missing more often than he ever did, which definitely explains the increase in strikeouts (28.8% in 2013) and decrease in walks (9.6% in 2013). It's hard to imagine a 26 year old suddenly become a weaker hitter than he was a year ago, so I'm leaning towards the injury theory.

Finally, there's ZIPS rest of the season stats. While these stats don't show exactly what will happen in the future, they do show who is likely to be better for the rest of the season.

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
Brayan Pena	164	0.260	0.293	0.369	4.3%	11.8%	0.290	77
Alex Avila	351	0.236	0.334	0.390	12.6%	25.3%	0.320	97

Alex Avila may need to be replaced (or DL'd), but the answer isn't Brayan Pena.