The Flagrant Fan

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: June 18, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 10:50:00 +0000

When you start off a picking night at 5-1 and only twelve games are on the schedule, things should go pretty well, right? Wrong. The rest of the picks went 1-5 to add up to another mediocre day of picking. Here was the best idea that happened along the way: With a tie game in the ninth and Giancarlo Stanton up, why not shake off the catcher and throw him a fastball. That was a good idea, Heath Bell. The Giants allowed the Padres 24 base runners in 13 innings pitched. Sooner or later, any team is going to cash in on that. And the Padres did. Just another night in unpredictable baseball.

My goodness! There are seventeen games on the schedule with two double-headers! Tuesday's picks:

The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: You expect Alfredo Aceves to blow up anytime now, right? Me too. But it has not happened yet. It will sooner or later. It always does. Chris Archer goes for the Rays and the Red Sox should wait him out and win.
The Mets over the Braves: Today is the day that Matt Harvey gets rewarded for all his good outings. He gets a few runs as the Braves start Alex Wood, who was just drafted less than a year ago from the University of Georgia. That is a fast rise. Perhaps too fast.
The Indians over the Royals: This could go either way depending on which starter does well. Ubaldo Jimenez versus Ervin Santana. Going with the home team, Indians.
The Dodgers over the Yankees: Phil Hughes gives up at least one homer and mostly more every time he pitches at home. The Yankees do not know Hyun-jin Ryu and are not good against left-handed pitching. Not a good way to start off a homestand after a tough West Coast trip for the Yanks.
The Phillies over the Nationals: You would have to figure that Cliff Lee would give up less base runners and runs than Ross Detwiler. But then again, the only games the Nats have won lately have been when pitchers named, "Ross," have started.
The Blue Jays over the Rockies: While I am not a big fan of Esmil Rogers, I am less of a fan of Jeff Francis. The Blue Jays are on a big role and last night's shutout showed how the Rockies would sag a bit without Tolowitzki.
The Mets over the Braves: This double-header should be a doozy. Matt Harvey goes in the first game for the Mets and then Zach Wheeler goes in the second game. That is some high powered arms. The only caveat is that the Mets have to score some runs and the bullpen needs to be good. Dicey, but I have nothing to lose. Paul Maholm goes for the Braves.
The Reds over the Pirates: The Pirates have a big series here. They can show they are here to stay. And then they put Charlie Morton on the mound. Ugh. Mat Latos has to be the pick here.
The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: Gosh, I have predicted two double-header sweeps. Hmm... And how about Aceves and Felix Doubront pitching on the same day. Now there are some emotions for you. Again, I just think the Red Sox' lineup will overcome Jake Odorizzi.
The Rangers over the Athletics: That was a big win for the Rangers last night. I got it wrong, but that happens (a lot). I do not see how Yu Darvish with that stuff ever loses. But he does not always win either. Jarrod Parker should get beat here.
The Twins over the White Sox: The Twins are the better team here. But Mike Pelfrey does not exactly instill a lot of confidence. But then again, neither does Dylan Axelrod. So there you go.
The Brewers over the Astros: Both pitchers in this game seem evenly matched. Alfredo Figaro Figaro Figaro was terrific in his last start. And Jordan Lyles is making the most of his second chance. I think the Brewers have a slightly better offense and that is the pick.
The Cardinals over the Cubs: I do not get why Cardinal fans hate the Cubs so much. It is not like the Cubs have ever been a threat. Jeff Samardzija could always pitch lights out and has before. And then again, even if he does, Adam Wainwright will match those zeroes and the Cards win a bullpen match.
The Diamondbacks over the Marlins: Ugh. What do you do with this game? Randall Delgado and Nathan Eovaldi, two 4-A pitchers if there ever was, make their first starts of the season tonight. How do you pick that stuff?
The Angels over the Mariners: If you thought the above pitching line was ugly, how about this one? Jeremy Bonderman against Joe Blanton. Hehe. Yeah. That looks fun. Sometimes I hate doing this every day...
The Giants over the Padres: Sooner or later, some team has to come along and end this Padres streak. After all, they are not that good. Andrew Cashner won the game for the Padres last night with a suicide bunt in the thirteenth inning. He kind of deserves to win here. But Matt Cain will not allow that I don't think.

And the Game of the Day!

The Tigers over the Orioles: The Orioles made a run at the top against the Red Sox but have run out of pitching against the Tigers. Not a good thing. Justin Verlander should have a good game and Zach Britton is not a good option for the O's.

Yesterday: 6-6

Week: 14-13

Month: 114-115

Season: 577-465

Games of the Day: 45-31

MLB Game Picks - Monday: June 17, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 11:17:00 +0000

And the winner is Benjamin Shoptaw! The eight and a half year old son of Cardinals writer, Daniel Shoptaw (@C70), participated along with his six year old sister, Sarah, and Dad against yours truly in a game picking contest yesterday. Benjamin went 9-6 with the picks while Daniel and I both went 8-7. Sarah had six games correct. I will be offering young Benjamin a contract within the next couple of days or so. Heh.

But it was great fun and proved, once again, how difficult it is to pick baseball games. On any given day, any team can win no matter how bad a team they are. And conversely, any team can lose no matter how good a team they are. Thank you so much, Shoptaw Family, for the great fun and who wants to be next? Maybe we can have a challenge like this every Sunday!

Monday's picks return to me flying solo:

The Cardinals over the Cubs: The Cards has a surprisingly difficult weekend with the Marlins while the Cubs had a good weekend with the Mets...until Carlos Marmol entered the game in the ninth inning yesterday. That has to be demoralizing to lose in that fashion so many times. Shelby Miller should just be a bit better than Travis Wood in this one.
The Royals over the Indians: Carlos Carrasco has pitched twice for the Indians this year and has been absolutely pounded. So, of course, that means he will throw a gem tonight, right? Even if he does, James Shields will hold the Indians back and allow the Royals to win a game.
The Nationals over the Phillies: Both teams are struggling offensively. The pitching line of Dan Haren and John Lannon does not scare anyone. All I can keep thinking about is Cole Hamels, who lost due to poor umpiring, dunk hits and his team not scoring yesterday. The Phillies are not a good team.
The Blue Jays over the Rockies: The pitching line here concerns me. Josh Johnson simply cannot put it together either physically or on the mound. Jorge De La Rosa, who has far too many names, can be quite good. But the Blue Jays are at home, the Rockies are going to miss Troy Tulowitzki and that's the pick.
The Tigers over the Orioles: The only fear in this pick is the eighth and ninth inning and the Tigers' bullpen. But otherwise, Max Scherzer is exceptional and Jake Arrieta is up and down.
The Braves over the Mets: Dillon Gee has been out of his mind lately and it all started in his start against the Yankees, which figures. I have not picked him since and he has won every time. Since I do not quite believe he is that good, the pick is Tim Hudson and the Braves. Slow learner, ain't I?
The Pirates over the Reds: Two good teams. The Reds have the better offense. So the pick comes down to which pitcher could be really good today. Francisco Liriano seems to have a better chance of that than Mike Leake. So that is the pick.
The Athletics over the Rangers: I hate winning and losing streaks. The Rangers have lost six straight. The A's have built a decent lead in the AL West. Are the Rangers dead? Will they roar back? I cannot pick then with Nick Tepesch on the mound. The streak goes to seven as Dan Straily tries to prove that he can kill more teams than just the Yankees.
The Astros over the White Sox: Yeah, that is what I said too. What the heck!? But the White Sox are terrible. The Astros are on a roll. Who the heck knows. This is a coin toss of a pick. ~~Carlos~~ Jose Quintana goes for the Pale Hose and Bud Norris goes for the 'Stros.
The Angels over the Mariners: It is hard for me to judge Aaron Harang and Jason Vargas. They both look like superstars against the Yankees and that is the only time I watch them pitch. In reality, both are mediocre at best. The Angels have to be the pick at home.
The Giants over the Padres: Yes, the Padres have won a bunch of games in a row. And yes, against some good teams too. And yes, Barry Zito is pitching for the Giants. But this pick is against Edinson Volquez more than anything else.

And the Game of the Day!

The Diamondbacks over the Marlins: The Marlins just finished gave the Cards all they can handle. Huh!? Jacob Turner has been decent since his call up. But I have to go with Patrick Corbin here. That is the only pick that makes sense.

Yesterday: 8-7

Week: 8-7

Month: 108-109

Season: 571-459

Games of the Day: 45-30

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: June 16, 2013 with special guests!

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sun, 16 Jun 2013 10:37:00 +0000

This is a very cool day. First, the sun is shining and golf should be fun for a change. Secondly, I finally had a good night last night after having the worst picking week of my career. And lastly, and most importantly, I have special guests to challenge me for the picks. Let me set up how this came about.

It is no secret that I have been on an alarming bender with the picks. Nothing has gone right and May and particularly June have been terrible. This past week, in my frustration, when I promoted my newest picks post on Twitter, I wrote: "A 5 year old could do better right now." Cardinal writer extraordinaire, Daniel Shoptaw (@C70), tweeted back, "Sounds like a great idea. Pick a day and I'll have my kids pick games, we'll compare them to yours."

And so we communicated and Benjamin Shoptaw (8 1/2), Sarah Shoptaw (just turned six) and dad (ancient) all submitted picks for today's games. I will list them after my picks (so I am not influenced

by them) and then tomorrow, I will tally them all up. Many thanks to Daniel for making this happen!

My Sunday's picks:

The Indians over the Nationals: Stephen Strasburg returns for the Nationals, and while that is exciting, he will probably only pitch five innings or so. Meanwhile, Corey Kluber has been very good with great outings against the Red Sox, Rangers, etc. Both pitchers can throw zeroes but the Indians win late.
The Cubs over the Mets: The Cubs have had their way all weekend in this series. Matt Garza should bounce back from his last outing to get back on the trade deadline lists. Jeremy Hefner has been better of late, but even if he is good, the Mets cannot score.
The Reds over the Brewers: The Brewers kicked the Reds yesterday and it was one of only four bad picks all day. I do not think that will happen today since Johnny Cueto is on the mound for the Reds and should be better than Wily Peralta.
The Cardinals over the Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton has been hot since coming back, but I anticipate this game to go much like yesterday's where the Cards score double digits so it does not matter how many the Marlins score. Tyler Lyons has not fared well lately and Ricky Nolasco is pitching with scouts in the stats for those deadline deals.
The Orioles over the Red Sox: The Orioles have dominated the Red Sox ever since September of 2011. The Red Sox got off that ride a little bit yesterday behind John Lackey. Today is Jon Lester's turn and while I believe in Lester's talent, he has been shaky lately and Miguel Gonzalez has had good success against the Red Sox and all AL East teams.
The Pirates over the Dodgers: Gerrit Cole's MLB debut in his last outing was successful and the Pirates are playing really well. Zack Greinke could slow them down. But the pick is for the Pirates to continue to dominate this series.
The Rays over the Royals: There are several reasons I am picking the Rays but Ramon Hernandez is not one of them. So do not think I have gone to the dark side on my feelings for him. I have not become Faustus (or Fausto). The Royals are moribund. Wade Davis is the Royals' version of Phil Hughes and the Rays are at home.
The Astros over the White Sox: I have picked against the Astros this entire series and have been burned by it. Do you realize that the White Sox only have three more wins this season than the Astros? Yeah, that is bad. Dallas Keuchel over Hector Santiago.
The Tigers over the Twins: This is a double-reverse pick. The Tigers should win all of these games. But they have not won any of them. P.J. Walters has done nothing but win lately. Doug Fister has done nothing but lose lately. So I am still reversing all of that logic to pick the Tigers to win. Baseball is a funny game.
The Blue Jays over the Rangers: You never know if Derek Holland is going to throw a gem or a booby trap. His left-hand throwing will not bother guys like Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. But the Jays need a good start from Chien-Ming Wang for this to happen.
The Angels over the Yankees: The Yankees' offense is painful to watch. Ichiro Suzuki is playing his heart out and gets on third with no outs after a bunt single and two stolen bases. The next three Yankee batters struck out. That, friends, is the epitome of the Yankees' offense right now. Jerek Weaver over CC Sabathia.
The Mariners over the Athletics: This is a tough, tough pick. I have had success all season picking Hisashi Iwakuma to win. I have had great horrors all season picking Bartolo Colon to lose (he is 8-2). So which truth today will hold more evident? Yikes!
The Diamondbacks over the Padres: The only place that Clayton Richard can pitch halfway decent is at home, which he is. But Ian Kennedy as a fly ball pitcher should also pitch well at Petco. Going with the D-backs despite the loss yesterday.
The Phillies over the Rockies: Who the heck knows. Cole Hamels is 2-9. The world is upside down. Jhoulys Chacin is as confusing as ever. Coors Field is the ultimate wild card. All I can do is pick a winner and hope.

And the Game of the Day!

The Braves over the Giants: This is also the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game. And so, it will be interesting. Julio Teheran might melt in the spotlight. But it is more likely that the Braves will hit some dingers off of Tim Lincecum or that the formerly long-haired and formerly great pitcher will have no control and get in trouble that way.

Yesterday: 11-4 Well, what do you know!?

Last week: 42-52 Was beyond saving.

Month: 100-102

Season: 563-452

Games of the Day: 44-30

And now the Shoptaw picks:

Brandons still overrunning baseball

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 15 Jun 2013 11:04:00 +0000

I pick the Major League games every day. As such, you notice names because of discussing the starting pitchers. The name that comes up more than any other is, "Brandon." Brandons overrun baseball. The 1980s must have been the age of Brandon. Every parent must have wanted to name their male children by that name. You would expect a lot of the names, Joe, Jim, William, Dave and other classics. You would expect a run of Hispanic names like Jose and Juan. But Brandon? Why Brandon?

When Brandon Cumpton makes his Major League debut today, he will be the 22nd Brandon to play in the majors in the last two seasons. Then there is the Brendan variation that includes Brendan Ryan and Brendan Harris to add two more. Then there is Brennan Boesch, which may or may not be another variant. There are nine more Brandons playing in the minors, so we are not done yet. Heck, there is a Brendan Brennan in the minors playing in the White Sox system. Maybe he wins a prize.

The other name that comes up a lot is, "Jonathan." There are eleven of those. Ten if you include Jonathon Niese of the Mets, who must have had a bad spelling nurse when he was born. But the Brandons still have it.

Here is a list of Brandons in the past two seasons: Brandon Allen, Brandon Bantz, Brandon Beachy, Brandon Barnes, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Dickson, Brandon Gomes, Brandon Guyer, Brandon Inge, Brandon Hicks, Brandon Kintzler, Brandon Laird, Brandon League, Brandon Lyon, Brandon McCarthy, Brandon Maurer, Brandon Morrow, Brandon Moss, Brandon Phillips, and Brandon Snyder. In addition, there is Luke Brandon Scott and Christopher Brandon Young. And today, we will have Brandon Cumpton.

That is a lot of Brandons.

But they could be dethroned in the next couple of years. I mentioned that there were eleven Jonathans with another Jonathon. But there are 19 Jonathans in the minors. So that name could take over from Brandon. But in the meantime. Brandon is king. Brandons are everywhere.

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: June 15, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 15 Jun 2013 10:16:00 +0000

My horrible week of picking continues with another terrible night. When I went to bed, the Rockies were leading the Phillies, 7-2, as Kyle Kendrick got bombed as predicted. What I did not see coming was the Phillies scoring six runs in the last four innings to win the game despite the fact that their pitching staff did not record a strikeout until Jonathan Papelbon recorded one in the ninth.

The day started off well. The Orioles beat the Red Sox, the Indians beat the Nats and the Pirates beat the Dodgers all as predicted and I was 3-0. But then the Cardinals lost, the Rays lost (the Game of the Day), and the Mets lost and the slide had started. Only three more picks were correct the rest of the evening.

I do not know what I am going to do if this does not turn around soon. Saturday's picks:

The Cubs over the Mets: And of course, the day starts out with a puzzler. Jonathon Niese is supposed to be a pretty good pitcher. But he has games where he gets bombed, including his last one. Scott Feldman has had a good year for the Cubs, but again, his last start was not so good. Ugh.
The Dodgers over the Pirates: MLB.com has the Pirates' pitcher as TBO. That is not good. Yahoo lists Brandon Cumpton as making his Major League debut. So we will go with that. Cumpton's numbers in the minors are ordinary and he does not make any prospect list. So maybe Clayton Kershaw can actually get a win to go with his 1.88 ERA. Just maybe.
The Red Sox over the Orioles: The Orioles have the Red Sox' number. It has not been pretty. But John Lackey seems like a better pick than Freddy Garcia. Then again, I have picked against Garcia twice in a row and he has won. So there you go.
The Braves over the Giants: Okay, I get that I should have picked Bumgarner last night. But both starters had been hot and it was a flip of the coin of which would have a good day. I flipped poorly. But in this one? Come on, Mike Minor has to be better than Chad Gaudin. He just has to be. If he is not, then I give up.
The Blue Jays over the Rangers: Let's face it, R.A. Dickey has not been good. But at least he is capable of a good game if his knuckler works. But Josh Lindblom? He is not exactly Lindblooming in his early time with the Rangers. This could be a wild one.
The Bay Rays over the Royals: Yeah, this pick did not work out yesterday or the day before. But I am stubborn that way. For one, I like Alex Cobb...a lot. For another, the Royals are hot, but the Rays are not this bad. Lastly, I do not know what the heck I am doing anymore. Jeremy Guthrie goes for the Royals.
The Reds over the Brewers: Homer Bailey has a horrible lifetime record against the Brewers but beat them his last time out quite impressively. Ryan Braun's status remains day to day. Yovani Gallardo is certainly capable of a shut down day if he is on. Never an easy pick these days.
The Rockies over the Phillies: I have no idea which team is going to win this game. I will be honest. Jonathan Pettibone and Tyler Chatwood both pitching at Coors Field sounds like a nightmare. This could be like a 13-12 score. Or one of the pitchers can be unexpectedly sharp today. Either way, I have no idea.
The White Sox over the Astros: The Astros won yesterday. The Astros have been a thorn in my side because they are bad enough to lose every game, but will win at least fifty games this year because that is how it works. You never know when a win will happen. The White Sox are terrible. They are probably one of the worst constructed teams in baseball. But I like John Danks over Lucas Harrell.
The Cardinals over the Marlins: I had a dream that Tom Koehler won his first game ever the other night. Seriously, I dreamed that. But since these picks have been my nightmare, I have to pick the Cardinals behind Lance Lynn. The Marlins are a different team with Giancarlo Stanton in there. But still.
The Tigers over the Twins: Anibal Sanchez does this every year. He shows brilliance. But then he gets nagging injuries and misses a start or two and is mediocre in between. But then he shows brilliance again. One never knows. And of course, that Tigers' bullpen. Ouch. The Twins are starting Samuel Deduno, which rhymes with I dunno.
The Angels over the Yankees: Let's be real here. Whenever I pick the Yankees, it is an emotional pick. For years, the emotions matched the team's skill level. This year, they do not. Tommy Hanson over David Phelps.
The Mariners over the Athletics: As good as Felix Hernandez is, we have all seen how his start does not guarantee a win. But you still have to respect that he gives his team a chance to win. A.J. Griffin is hot and cold. But the Mariners' offense is stinky. Gosh, this is hard.
The Diamondbacks over the Padres: How silly is it that Jason Marquis is 8-2? I know because I have picked against him all year and he has made me look stupid...which at this point, after this week, I can do pretty much well by myself. But I am going with Wade Miley and thinking Goldschmidt does something good.

And the Game of the Day!

The Nationals over the Indians: My champion, Jordan Zimmermann, goes tonight. He is my man and I have been going with him for three years. If I was playing Strat-O-Matic baseball, I would pitch him every night. Scott Kazmir pitches for the Indians.

Yesterday: 6-9

Week: 31-48 Worst. Week. Ever.

Month: 89-98

Season: 552-448

Games of the Day: 43-30

It is a real shame about Troy Tulowitzki

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 14 Jun 2013 11:05:00 +0000

Troy Tulowitzki is the best shortstop in the Major Leagues since Alex Rodriguez. The problem is that A-Rod almost never got hurt early in his career and Troy Tulowitzki cannot seem to avoid the injury bug. After only playing 46 games a year ago, Tulowitzki has just been diagnosed with a broken rib and will miss another four to six weeks after playing just sixty games this season.

Tulowitzki has averaged 29 homers and a 105 runs batted in for every 162 games he has played with 66 walks and 181 hits. Unfortunately, he cannot get close to 162 games in a season. He has played now for eight years and has only twice reached the 150 games played mark.

Tulowitzki missed 51 games in 208, 40 in 2010, 19 in 2011, 115 last year and now he will miss 30 to 45 more games this season. I have seen some posts by Rockies' writers that seem to blame Tulowitzki for this problem. How can you blame a guy for getting hurt? It is just plain bad luck. His career kind of reminds me of George Brett and Larry Walker. Like them, he is a brilliant talent who simply cannot get a physical break. Or maybe he gets too many depending on how you look at it.

And 2013 was shaping up to be his best season yet. His triple slash line reads: 347/.414/.629. He had already hit sixteen homers and sixteen doubles. He had driven in 51 runs in just sixty games. It was a monster season in the making. Now it will be on hold for more than a month.

And lest you think those were simply Coors Field numbers, Tulowitzki was a .975 OPS guy on the road this season with eight of his homers and nine of his doubles on the road.

If Tulowitzki could have stayed healthy over his career, he would have been everyone's All Star. He would have been one of the most talked about players in baseball. Instead, his career thus far has been a sad shake of the head, and to some, a disappointment. You cannot call a guy a disappointment because he gets hurt. But you can call it disappointing.

MLB Game Picks - Friday: June 14, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 14 Jun 2013 10:16:00 +0000

The picking day on Thursday finished a game over .500 and it still feels like a major victory. Granted, it was mediocre and barely acceptable, but it was the first day in the black this week. That is a victory. Of course, two games went a combined 32 innings to be wrong. Those extra inning games never help. Ever. And it seems there have been more of them than ever before. As usual, Yu Darvish was very good and could not win. The same was the case for Matt Harvey, but at least I predicted that one.

And here is a little tidbit for you. In one of those extra inning games, Travis Hafner, Kevin Youkilis and Vernon Wells were back to back to back in the lineup. They went zero for 23. That's right. Zero for 23. Just keep running them out there, Girardi. Yup.

Here are Friday's picks:

The Orioles over the Red Sox: Like I told you yesterday, the Orioles like playing the Red Sox. It is just one of those things. Both teams will be exhausted after their long game yesterday. But the Orioles will hit Ryan Dempster more than the Red Sox will hit Chris Tillman.
The Pirates over the Dodgers: I keep forgetting that the Pirates are a good team now. For all the years I have been doing this, the Pirates were the easy mark. They still have some problems occasionally on offense, but they are a good team. And Jeff Locke will be ~~Barney~~ Stephen Fife.
The Indians over the Nationals: The Nats have run out of pitchers named, "Ross." They win with pitchers named, "Ross." They have not won often with pitchers named Gio Gonzalez. Besides, Justin Masterson is the Indians' best pitcher.
The Mets over the Cubs: The two pitchers in this contest are a combined 2-15. Yes, those are the kinds of messes I have to deal with. I have a new theory about Edwin Jackson. He was born in Germany and in that country, most citizens get five weeks of vacation a year. Jackson takes his during the baseball season. Shaun Marcum is going to get his first win of the season.
The Reds over the Brewers: Kyle Lohse has always pitched pretty well against the Reds. He has one of his better K/BB splits against the Reds over the years. But the feeling here is that the Brewers will find some way to screw it up and lose. Bronson Arroyo is hit or miss and when he is hit, he is hit.
The Cardinals over the Marlins: Jake Westbrook has not pitched in a while and it is almost a bad thing he has come off the disabled list because the young pitchers have pitched better than him. And the Cardinals have Stanton back and young, Jose Fernandez, has been pitching well. Despite all that, I am going with the Cardinals.
The Braves over the Giants: This is a tough, tough game to predict. Kris Medlen has not had a good start to the season but has not given up an earned run over his last two starts and wants to stay out of the bullpen. But the Giants are pitching Madison Bumgarner, which means with the free swingers on the Braves, he could strike out twelve of them.
The Rangers over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have been on a bit of a roll. The Rangers have been in a funk. Justin Grimm has not been very good lately. Mark Buehrle is a powder-puff guy who keeps teams off balance...most of the time. When he does not, it ain't pretty. The Rangers at home are still tough to deal with.
The White Sox over the Astros: Chris Sale was supposed to pitch the other night, but the game was rained out. The extra rest should do him good. Erik Bedard could surprise with a good game tonight. But that would indeed be a surprise.
The Tigers over the Twins: This game is no gimme for the Tigers and the Twins have played them tough. Scott Diamond should not be able to hold Miguel Cabrera and company down. Rick Porcello has been decent for the Tigers.
The Rockies over the Phillies: The Rockies are losing players to injuries, which is a shame. But I have a feeling they will still rock Kyle Kendrick's world today at home in Coors Field.
The Angels over the Yankees: The Angels have at least three hitters that can do something. The Yankees cannot say that. And as long as the Yankees play Vernon Wells, I cannot pick them anymore. Despite Andy Pettitte pitching, I am going with C.J. Wilson.
The Athletics over the Mariners: I cannot see the Mariners' offense doing anything in this game. The A's are a really good team. Tommy Milone over Joe Saunders.
The Diamondbacks over the Padres: I can tell I am being set up here. I have picked against the Padres and picked against them and they keep on winning. Today, I think they will win behind Eric Stults. But that is a setup and I recognize it. So I am going to foil it and pick the Diamondbacks and the terrible Trevor Cahill. So there. Nice try. Gosh, I am going insane.

And the Game of the Day:

The Bay Rays over the Royals: The Rays have been pretty sucky for a couple of weeks now. And the once unhitable Matt Moore has been getting bombed. The thinking here is that Moore rediscovers himself in this game and the struggling Rays' lineup gets a few runs off of Luis Mendoza.

Yesterday: 5-4

Week: 25-39

Month: 83-89

Season: 546-439

Games of the Day: 43-29

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: June 13, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 13 Jun 2013 11:22:00 +0000

Holy freakin' Hannah. What the heck is going on here? Verlander throws seven shutout innings and then Papa not-so Grande gives up a two-run homer to Lorenzo Cain in the ninth and the Tigers lose in extras. The Braves would go 0-162 if they played the Padres every day of the season. The Cardinals can club any pitcher in baseball to death, but not Dillon Gee. Ubaldo Jimenez gave up four walks and a homer in five innings and still wins. Ross Ohlendorf comes out of nowhere to pitch six innings of two-hit ball...at Coors Field. The Dodgers behind Ryu, build a 4-3 lead in the late innings and then give the job of keeping it there to a kid making his major league debut. What!? The Mariners are ahead, 1-0, going into the top of the ninth and allow the Astros to score six runs. Phil Hughes goes back to sucking. I cannot win. This has been the worst stretch of my picking career. It is brutal. The week is so deeply in the hole that it should break through to China any minute now. The month is deep in the red. I am pulling my hair out and it is my only good feature.

There are only nine games on the Thursday schedule. Let's see how badly I can screw this up. Thursday's picks:

The Cardinals over the Mets: The Cardinals cannot beat Gee, but they will beat the Mets' best pitcher. Why? One, they have Adam Wainwright on the mound. Two, Matt Harvey tweaked his back in his last start and three, the Mets do not score any runs when Harvey pitches. He has not had a decision since mid-April despite an ERA during that time of 2.68.
The Reds over the Cubs: I would like to think the Cubs can finally win one of these games against the Reds. But can I afford to pick it that way? Even with Jeff Samardzija on the mound? Heck no. Mat Latos has to be the pick.
The Nationals over the Rockies: The Nats are going to Ross the Rockies to death. Last night it was Ohlendorf and tonight it is Ross Detwiler. The Nats should trade for the Rangers' Ross Wolf so they would have the complete set. Jeff Francis should get clubbed. But then again, I should find a better way to spend my mornings.
The Yankees over the Athletics: Yeah, I know, this is dumb. The Yankees cannot hit Oakland pitching in Oakland. They got melted there last year. They are getting melted again this year. But you would have to think that Hiroki Kuroda should beat Jarrod Parker, right? Keep starting Vernon Wells, Girardi. He is a pip.
The Orioles over the Red Sox: The AL East is a strange place. The Rays beat the Yankees but cannot beat the Red Sox. The Rays also beat the Orioles, but the Orioles beat the Red Sox. And on it goes. This game can go either way, of course, with Felix Doubront and Kevin Gausman as the pitching line. The pick is the Orioles at home.
The Giants over the Pirates: Oh look! Charlie Morton is back. He of the career 1.55 WHIP and 23-45 career win-loss record. He did not even strike out six minor league batters per nine innings, so he should do less in the majors, right? But see? That is what keeps happening. The Giants are the obvious pick behind Matt Cain. But nothing is going obvious.
The Rays over the Royals: Ervin Santana will give up a couple of homers. My prediction is Matt Joyce and Luke Scott. Jeremy Hellickson will pitch his five or six mediocre innings and get his win, just like pretty much always.
The Rangers over the Blue Jays: I never know what to do with a Yu Darvish start. I am almost always disappointed. He has had plenty of rest lately. So will that help? Esmil Rogers should get hit hard in Texas. But will he? The Rangers are having trouble getting the runners home despite a lot of base runners.

And the Game of the Day (not even going to use the exclamation point the way it has been going):

The Phillies over the Twins: Cliff Lee is the reason for the pick. But I do not feel strongly about any of the picks today. There is not one game that feels like a lock. So this pick is it by default. Lee should have a chance to shut down the Twins and perhaps the feeble Phillies' offense can score a few off of Kevin Correia.

Yesterday: 4-10 ::sigh::

Week: 20-35 A five year old could do better pointing to a schedule.

Month: 78-85 How sad

Season: 541-435 Still living off of April

Games of the Day: 42-29 When a lock is not a lock

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: June 12, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 12 Jun 2013 12:05:00 +0000

The picks took another beanball to the head last night. Oh, wait. That was the Dodgers. Which ironically, was one of the few correct picks of the day. I do not think players should be thrown at with baseballs, so I can barely stomach Zack Greinke throwing at a Diamondback player to retaliate for Puig getting hit in the nose with a pitch. But at least I can understand it and Greinke hit the guy where it could do no damage (even though that does not excuse it). But then Ian Kennedy threw a pitch at Greinke's head (and succeeded) and that has no place in baseball at all, and in my mind is a criminal act with a deadly weapon. Kennedy, long one of my favorite players, should be suspended for weeks for that act. All you have to do is look at what Brandon McCarthy has gone through to know that was the worst thing Kennedy could have done and inexcusable. Color it any way you want, but that was brutal, I do not care whose fan you are or what you say to excuse it. You never, ever, ever should throw at a player's head.

Anyway, it was another awful picking night in what has been an awful week and now even the month is in the red. Does anyone want to buy this feature from me? I obviously suck at it after four years of doing this. Sheesh. Maybe it is time for another opposite day. An opposite day is where I pick every team I think should lose to win to reverse gears. Nah. I cannot.

Wednesday's picks:

The Angels over the Orioles: Maybe this is an opposite pick. Maybe I cannot believe what I see for stats from Jason Hammel. Maybe I think Jerome Williams is the best Angels' pitcher. Maybe I have nothing to lose. Maybe Mike Trout should be batting third so there might be someone on base when he hits a homer (29 of his 46 career shots are solos).
The Tigers over the Royals: I would pick James Shields on just about any other occasion except pitching against Justin Verlander.
The Reds over the Cubs: So I picked the Cubs twice in this series. Shame on me. So I learn my lesson the hard way and pick the Reds. But now watch Travis Wood beat Mike Leake. I am ready for it emotionally. It will happen.
The Braves of the Padres: So now I have picked four straight home teams to lose. And I have that sinking feeling. But geez, the Braves should beat the Padres. The Braves should hit ten homers off of Edinson Volquez. Paul Maholm should be even better in a big ballpark. Should. Oh, crap.
The Pirates over the Giants: Some of that Giants' mystique has been missing in recent weeks. And the only guy winning consistently is Barry Zito. So I might as well pick against him, right? But there is a reason. Francisco Liriano has been awesome. Ugh.
The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Come on, man, give me an easy one will ya!? Chris Archer is the kind of pitcher the Red Sox should eat for lunch. High homer rate. High walk rate. Young, inexperienced guy. All good so far. But then they start Alfredo Aceves, who could be awesome or awful depending on how the non-existent wind in that dome blows.
The Marlins over the Brewers: Egads. Is this Alfredo night, or what? This time it is Alfredo Figaro Figaro Figaro pitching for the Brewers. Kevin Slowey benefits perhaps from Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison being back in the Marlins' lineup.
The Rangers over the Indians: The Indians have had a good series at the Rangers' expense. But sooner or later, you would think the Rangers would explode at home. While I am not a big fan of picking the Rangers to win when Nick Tepesch is pitching, the thought is that the Rangers hit Ubaldo Jimenez at home.
The Twins over the Phillies: So the Phillies could not beat the Twins with Hamels on the mound. Are they going to win with Tyler Cloyd and his 4.91 K/9 rate? It does not seem likely except that Mike Pelfrey is pitching for the Twins. Oy.
The White Sox over the Blue Jays: This pick went south yesterday late in the game when the Blue Jays pulled it out with a White Sox' blown save. Perhaps a save will not be in the offing with Chris Sale on the mound against Esmil Rogers.
The Rockies over the Nationals: The Nationals were supposed to be in the World Series this year. But Bryce Harper is wearing a brace on his knee. Strasburg has a pulled muscle. And the Nats are reduced to starting Ross Ohlendorf. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Jorge De La Rosa should take advantage.
The Yankees over the Athletics: Phil Hughes pitches better outside of Yankee Stadium and the A's lost Cespedes to yet another leg muscle injury. Dan Straily, though, will have a wimpy Yankees' offense to deal with. I will be in bed by the time this pick goes wrong.
The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Yes, Patrick Corbin is 9-0 and deservedly so. He has been that good. But he goes against Hyun-jin Ryu in this one and that should be the difference with the Dodgers at home. Hopefully, the bean ball wars are over.
The Mariners over the Astros: The Astros made Aaron Harang look like Tom Seaver last night. So Jeremy Bonderman should look like a Cy Young Award candidate. Meanwhile, Jordan Lyles is 3-1 so far this season, so I could look like a dope again.

And the Game of the Day!

The Cardinals over the Mets: Dillon Gee has been pretty good lately. But he is facing the Cardinals. The awesome Shelby Miller is pitching for the Cardinals and is facing the Mets. Now that is a pick I can at least feel good about. That makes one today.

Yesterday: 6-9

Week: 16-25 Isn't that pretty

Month: 74-75 man oh man

Season: 537-425

Games of the Day: 42-28

Max Scherzer is ripping that shadow to shreds

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 11 Jun 2013 12:07:00 +0000

Max Scherzer of the Detroit Tigers has made twelve starts and he has not lost a game. Not only has he not lost a game, he does not look capable of losing a game. He has pitched in the shadow of Verlander for so long that he has always been considered the other guy. He might just be the guy now. He has gotten better every season in the last four and now Scherzer is in an elite class as one of the best pitchers in the game.

Let's look at some three year progressions for Scherzer. These progressions will show the progress he has made over the three year period. The numbers will start with 2011 with 2012 the second number and this year as the third. Here we go:

Winning percentage: .625, .679, 1.000
K/BB ratio: 3.11, 3.85, 5.00
WHIP: 1.349, 1.274, 0.888
Hits/9: 9.6, 8.6, 5.8
FIP: 4.14, 3.27, 2.36
Strikeout percentage: 20.9%, 29.4%, 31.6%
GameScore Ave: 50.7, 55.6, 64.2
HR/9: 1.34, 1.10, 0.65
Batting average against: .269, .248, .182

And it goes on and on. The same kind of three-year improvement can be seen in his tERA, SIERA, Win Probability and more. Scherzer has simply gotten better each year to the point where he is now an ace caliber pitcher and among the best in the game, if not on his own team.

To show you how strong the Tigers are, according to Fangraphs.com, the Tigers have the number 2 starter in baseball (yes, currently Sanchez has better stats than Scherzer), the number 6 (Scherzer) and number 8 (Verlander) starters in baseball. And if you had to go with one of the three in a big game, who would you give the ball to?

Verlander gets the nod by most still because of his history. But it would be a tough choice for me. I think personally that Sanchez will fall behind the other two eventually as he has trouble staying healthy. But Verlander and Scherzer will be neck and neck the rest of the season. Verlander had a rougher start to his season but has been coming on strong. The two have similar numbers with Scherzer coming out on top in most of them due to Verlander's season start.

But the bottom line here is that you cannot go wrong with either selection. As good as Verlander is, Max Scherzer is just as terrific now. You could not say that two years ago or even last year. But Scherzer's progression reminds me of Verlander's.

The only obstacle left for Max Scherzer to break to be in Verlander's league is to go beyond 200 innings this season, something he has not done. Part of that might be Verlander's strength of will to keep the ball late into the game and Leyland not having the same trust level with Scherzer. But that looks to be changing this season because one of those other progressions is innings per start. Scherzer has averaged 5.91 and 5.85 innings per start in the last two seasons, but is averaging 6.9 innings a start this year.

Max Scherzer has been in Verlander's long shadow for most of his career. But if his season continues to go this well, then the sun will be shining equally on both of them.

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: June 11, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 11 Jun 2013 11:21:00 +0000

Yesterday was about as bad a picking day as you can get. In fact, it was a disaster. I got Brandon League-ed in Los Angeles. The Red Sox won in extras after John Lackey's bush league move did not cost him or his team. Everything went wrong except for the last two picks of Hisashi Iwakuma (at least that was the Game of the Day) and Jeremy Guthrie beating the Tigers. Everything else was wrong.

And geez, am I sick and tired of not having good days. Mediocrity is bad enough, but downright terrible is a killer. Now I have to be extremely successful to pull this week out of the hole and the month has gotten as crappy as the Nationals.

Tuesday's picks:

The Orioles over the Angels: Well, if the Angels cannot win with Weaver, they certainly have less of a chance even with Jason Vargas. Miguel Gonzalez is nothing to write home about, but even if this is a slugfest, the Orioles win.
The Giants over the Pirates: Gerrit Cole makes his Major League debut. The Number 9 prospect (Baseball America) and former #1 draft pick has not been splashy in the minors this season, but effective. My problem is his Pirates scoring runs to get him a win in his five innings of work. Tim Lincecum is the pick.
The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: Ramon Hernandez will get beat up by the Red Sox faster than you can say Fausto and Jon Lester will shut down the lefty bats of the Rays for the win. This one might get testy after last night.
The Brewers over the Marlins: The Marlins have Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison back, but they are still the Marlins. I think the Brewers get to Jacob Turner and Wily Peralta pitches a decent game.
The Cardinals over the Mets: Michael Wacha has been a bit of a letdown after his initial five innings in the majors. But I believe he will power through the Mets' lineup, such as it is, and that the Cardinals will score off of Jeremy Hefner.
The Reds over the Cubs: I really want to go with Matt Garza and the Cubs, but it was that kind of thinking that got me in trouble last night. After a disaster, you have to go with the percentages and the Reds are the better team as long as Tony Cingrani pitches like he has so far this year.
The Rangers over the Indians: This is a dicey pick. The Indians are well set up to hit left-handers, which is what they will get in Derek Holland. And Corey Kluber has been decent at times this season. But again, after last night, I have to go with the better team, especially at home.
The Tigers over the Royals: Max Scherzer should be out of Verlander's shadow as he has become a big-time stud pitcher. Why doesn't he get more attention? He should have an easy win over the Royals and Wade Davis will not help.
The White Sox over the Blue Jays: Oh, how I would love to see Chien-Ming Wang pitch well for the Blue Jays. I will always appreciate him for his Yankee years. But I just don't see it happening. So the pick is for Carlos Quintana.
The Rockies over the Nationals: The Rockies will ding up Dan Haren in Coors Field and Jhoulys Chacin needs to hold the Nationals to five runs or less for this pick to be correct. But the pick has to be the Rockies in that field and with that lineup.
The Yankees over the Athletics: Bartolo Colon is the A's best pitcher. That is kind of a sad statement foe the A's, is it not, despite how well they are playing? The Yankees love fastballs. Colon loves throwing them. CC Sabathia is on a two-game roll. All things point to the Yankees, but that's why they play the game.
The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Ian Kennedy has made a career of shutting down the Giants and the Dodgers, so this game will be close as Zack Greinke will be stingy as well. The Dodgers' bullpen is one scary place though.
The Braves over the Padres: The Padres have been spoiling a lot of good teams lately and it sure did not help the picks for them to beat the Braves yesterday. But I have to believe that Tim Hudson will love pitching in Petco and will blank them allowing the Braves to win with a few runs off of Andrew Cashner.
The Astros over the Mariners: Oh dear, this is not fun. Aaron Harang is terrible. But so are the Astros. Bud Norris is talented, but only puts it together about once a month. Will this be that once? Gosh, what a lousy game to pick.

And the Game of the Day!

The Phillies over the Twins: The Phillies get an extra bat, which will help as they can DH Ryan Howard and put Mayberry at first. Cole Hamels finally got a win his last time out and will now pull off a string of them. P.J. Walters is a average, generic starter.

Yesterday: 2-8 oh man

Week: 10-16

Month: 68-60

Season: 531-416

Games of the Day: 42-27

MLB Game Picks - Monday, June 10, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 10 Jun 2013 11:18:00 +0000

June has turned out to be just as difficult for me picking games as May was before it. Like Josh Hamilton, I cannot seem to get anything going for an extended period of time. The season total is based almost solely on the success of April. Since then, sheesh. The Marlins beat up on the Mets' bullpen to hand the Mets another loss. Matt Moore got crushed again. What is up with him? The Cubs beat the Pirates as Edwin Jackson finally pitched a good game and Cody Ransom hit a three-run homer. Cody Ransom!?

And that is the way it keeps going. So despite good picks like the Yankees beating the Mariners when Felix Hernandez started and the Braves thumping the Dodgers, the tally for the day ended with an 8-8 record. Blah.

All I can do is continue on as the season grinds away. Today there are ten games on the schedule. Let's see if I can do any better:

The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: I really like Alex Cobb and his ground ball machine of a pitching arm. The trouble is that he is facing the Red Sox, a team on a season-long roll. John Lackey has been effective coming back this season. The Rays at home.
The Angels over the Orioles: This is a scary pick as the Orioles, as they showed yesterday, can turn around just about any pitcher's offerings. The pick is based on Jered Weaver being able to slow them down for a game and the Angels teeing off on Freddy Garcia.
The Marlins over the Brewers: Okay, Marlins, are you on a roll? Or was it just the Mets? MLB.com lists Koehler as the Marlins' pitcher today. But that cannot be right. Yahoo lists Ricky Nolasco. I hope that is right as the pick is based on him pitching and putting up more zeroes than Yovani Gallardo.
The Cubs over the Reds: The Reds really got beat up over the weekend by the Cardinals and their bullpen has to be toast right about now. They do not even get a chance to rest as they traveled to Chicago after the game last night and face a Cubs' pitcher who has been very effective this year in Scott Feldman. Homer Bailey will really need to go deep in this one.
The Indians over the Rangers: Again, I hate streaks. The Indians have lost seven straight. When will it end? Will it be today or will it go on a bit longer? I hate that. Scott Kazmir does not seem like a pitcher to stop losing streaks. But what the heck. He is facing Josh Lindblom, whose first start of the season did little to show how he was so effective this season in the minors.
The Royals over the Tigers: Perhaps I believe a little bit too strongly in Jeremy Guthrie. Or perhaps I do not have the proper faith I should in Doug Fister. I really never thought that offense would be the Royals problem this season. But it has. Guthrie better be good.
The Blue Jays over the White Sox: R.A. Dickey has been on an every-other-start-is-good jag for his last four starts. And from that, tonight should be a bad one. But I have faith in him to have a good game and in his offense to score off of Dylan Axelrod.
The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: I really expected Wade Miley to have a better season than he has had. But his critics have proven correct in that he would fall back to the mean with his stuff. Stuff has never been an issue for Clayton Kershaw. His team scoring runs has though.
The Braves over the Padres: Julio Teheran has been impressive and he gets to pitch in a big ballpark in San Diego to mitigate his mistakes. Jason Marquis has been effective for the Padres. But I will be surprised if the Braves do not win this one.

And the Game of the Day!

The Mariners over the Astros: I cannot see Hisashi Iwakuma losing to the Astros pitching at home. I cannot see how that could happen. Dallas Keuchel has been better than expected, but still. It would be a shock if Iwakuma did not win this game.

Yesterday: 8-8

Week: 8-8

Month: 66-58

Season: 529-408

Games of the Day: 41-27

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: June 9, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sun, 09 Jun 2013 11:16:00 +0000

Saturday was a brutal day of picking. If you have been following along, you have seen that extra inning games kill me. They hardly ever turn out with the team I picked winning the game. Three games yesterday took an incredible 49 innings to decide the outcomes and all three ended with the picked team losing. That is amazing.

But as bad as I feel, think of poor Shaun Marcum. The Marlins and the Mets played twenty innings yesterday and Shaun Marcum was not expecting to pitch. He game in and pitched brilliantly for seven shutout innings but gave up the losing run in the 20th for his seventh loss without a win. Poor guy.

Sunday features another double-header as the Twins and Nationals make up their washed out Friday game. They played eleven innings yesterday. And so it is a big day. The picks;

The Blue Jays over the Rangers: Can the Blue Jays sweep this series? Can Josh Johnson get his mojo back? Can Justin Grimm keep the ball in the park? Will the players fall over after playing eighteen innings yesterday?
The Indians over the Tigers: The Tigers always seem to beat the Indians but two things prevent me from picking them. First, the Tigers are giving a spot start to young Jose Alvarez. Secondly, the Indians held back Justin Masterson for an extra day of rest to pitch today. That gives the edge to the Indians.
The Mets over the Marlins: Let's try this again, shall we? Jonathon Niese goes against Tom Koehler. Both pitchers better go deeply into the game for their teams.
The Red Sox over the Angels: Ryan Dempster against Joe Blanton is not a very savory match-up. Neither has been stellar this season. But Dempster has been better of late. But then again, so has Blanton. The Red Sox are at home so that is the pick.
The Nationals over the Twins: In this first game of the double-header, my man, Jordan Zimmermann, goes against Scott Diamond. Zimmermann never gets much for run support, but he should win this game if he pitches like he usually does.
The Royals over the Astros: The Royals have taken the first two games of the series and should finish out the sweep today. Luis Mendoza does not fill me with glee as the Royals starter. And Lucas Harrell usually keeps the Astros close.
The Athletics over the White Sox: The White Sox came out ahead yesterday but if anything, I am stubborn. A.J. Griffin seems like an ultimately better pick than Hector Santiago. But then again, Santiago is much better than his record when you look at this closely. This pick could blow up on me.
The Brewers over the Phillies: I cannot figure this series out and have been wrong both days. Kyle Lohse has also let me down for two straight picks. It is time for him to redeem himself. And the Brewers do some damage on Jonathan Pettibone.
The Pirates over the Cubs: How long did the Cubs commit to Edwin Jackson? Ugh. Going with Jeff Locke for the win.
The Braves over the Dodgers: MLB.com does not list a Dodgers' starter and lists TBO instead. Yahoo Sports lists Matt McGill. If that is the case, then the pick has to be Mike Minor because McGill was just awful his last time out.
The Yankees over the Mariners: I might as well go all jiggy with this as the Yankees face Felix Hernandez. A Hernandez start has never guaranteed a win for the Mariners and all it does is give them a fighting chance. My pick is that David Phelps shuts down the Mariners and King Felix loses a low scoring game.
The Rockies over the Padres: Clayton Richard is just barely passable in his spacious home backyard at Petco. Put him in Coors Field and it will not be pretty. Juan Nicasio, on the other hand, pitches there all the time and should put in a better outing.
The Diamondbacks over the Giants: What a lousy pick this is. First Chad Gaudin starts again for the Giants. Somehow, he lasted six innings in his last start and got the win. I cannot imagine a repeat. But then again, Tyler Skaggs is young and was beat up in his last outing. Ugh.
The Twins over the Nationals: Another doozy of a pitching line. Sam Deduno goes for the Twins and might be decent enough. But Nathan Karns does not seem ready for prime time for the Nationals either.
The Cardinals over the Reds: Bronson Arroyo has been pitching really well of late. But he is due for a clunker. Lance Lynn has power going for him, which helps sway this pick his way.

And the Game of the Day!

The Bay Rays over the Orioles: I like Matt Moore here at home in a match-up against Chris Tillman. Tillman rarely goes deep into games and Moore should bounce back from a bad outing last time out.

Yesterday: 6-10 ouch

Last week: 48-46

Month: 58-50

Season: 521-400

Games of the Day: 41-26

Cardinals making the most of their base runners

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 08 Jun 2013 15:13:00 +0000

After watching the Yankees most of the season (nearly every game), it was eye-opening watching the St. Louis Cardinals dismantle the Reds yesterday in the Reds' backyard. And what had me drooling with envy was the approach the Cardinals had with runners on base. As I have written this week for It's About the Money, Stupid, the Yankees are so pull happy that they often fail with runners on base and in scoring position because pitchers can take advantage of that proclivity. But not the Cardinals. They are more than happy to take that outside pitch up the middle or to the opposite field, particularly their right-hand hitting bats. The numbers are pretty astounding.

Obviously, the Cardinals are really doing everything well except for their relief pitching. The starting rotation has been fabulous with a bunch of home grown talent supporting Adam Wainwright. As a team, the Cardinals have the best ERA in the National League, give up the fewest homers and give up the second fewest amount of walks. As scary for the rest of the league as that is, the Cardinals also have the best batting average and on-base percentage in the National League. If you are the best pitching staff and the best offense, you are going to win some games. It is no secret why they are the first Major League team to forty victories.

But their offense has some secrets that are pretty amazing to discover. For example: As a team, the Cardinals have a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .381 with runners on base. The league average is .303. With runners in scoring position, the Cardinals have a BABIP of .401 compared to the league average of .300. That is pretty astounding. While that kind of pace would seem to be impossible to maintain, there is a reason the Cardinals are so successful--they hit the ball up the middle and the other way.

While the Cardinals do lead the NL in batting average and on-base percentage, the numbers are not that staggering. Other teams in history have hit much higher. And their slugging percentage is only five points higher than the league average. What makes them special right now is that when runners are on base, they make the most of those opportunities.

Here are some numbers to back up what I am talking about. In all of baseball, when batters hit line drives good things happen. In the majors as a whole, when the batter hits a line drive, a run will score at least 23.9 percent of the time as a result of that batted ball. With the Cardinals, that number jumps to 25.6 percent of the time. And that is just the tip of the iceberg.

When all batters in baseball hit the ball to the opposite field, the percentage of runs batted in per batted ball is 13.4 percent. With the Cardinals, opposite field batted balls result in runs batted in 16.6 percent of the time. That is impressive.

Some of this shows up in their ground ball stats. While the Cardinals OPS on ground balls is 26 points higher than the entire Major League average (.520 versus .494), the ground balls score more runs for the Cardinals than the rest of the league. When the league hits a ground ball, those lead to runs batted in only 6.7 percent of the time. When the Cardinals hit ground balls, those lead to runs batted in 9.8 percent of the time.

While some of this is accounted for by having more runners on base than anyone else (highest OBP, right?), a good part of it is the willingness and ability to hit the ball where it is pitched. And this is almost strictly a right-handed batting phenomenon for the Cardinals.

Cardinals' left-handed batters actually pull the ball more than league average and have a lower percentage of batted balls up the middle and opposite field than the rest of baseball. But the right-handed bats more than make up for it.

The league average (and when I say, "League" here, I mean all of baseball) for the percentage of pulled batted balls by right-handed batters is 26.7 percent. The Cardinals' right-handed batters pull the ball only 23.8 percent of the time. The MLB average for right-handed bats going up the middle is 55.8 percent. The Cardinals' right-handed bats go up the middle 57.3 percent of the time leaving their percentage of pulling the ball 1.6 percentage points lower than the league average.

It is this ability to be dynamic and use all fields that allows the Cardinals to develop rallies and keep them going.

Allen Craig, the Cardinals' most prolific RBI guy leads the way. He hits the ball to the opposite field 24.8 percent of the time. That beats the league average by 7.5 percentage points. He is batting .381 with men on base and a .412 batting average with men in scoring position. And 29 of his 43 runs batted in have been either up the middle or to the opposite field.

Matt Holliday has hit 32.4 percent of his batted balls to the opposite field! That almost doubles the league average. As a result, 24 of his 33 runs batted in have been up the middle or to the opposite field. He is batting .354 with men on base and .346 with runners in scoring position.

Yadier Molina came up as a great fielding and throwing catcher. He has become a great hitter by going the other way. Of his batted balls, 30.7 percent of them go to the opposite field and 22 of his 30 runs batted in have gone up the middle or to the opposite field. He is hitting .410 with runners on base and .377 with men in scoring position.

Among their star hitters, only Carlos Beltran is a pull hitter, especially from the right side of the plate. But he is their legitimate home run threat and is batting an incredible .478 with runners in scoring position.

The thing about this approach at the plate is that it is more slump proof than a pull-happy approach. Pitchers have to be honest and cannot simply live on the outside part of the plate with the Cardinals. I do not know how the Cardinals will hold up as the season progresses. But as of right now, they have the most versatile and resilient offense in baseball.

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: June 8, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 08 Jun 2013 12:08:00 +0000

Andrea did her thing and the three games I said were in jeopardy yesterday were all washed out. The mini-monsoon is now directly over my head here in Maine washing out yet another weekend. That is bad for me, but good for the rest of the East Coast I suppose.

The picks were decent. The only game that seriously torqued me was the Yankees loss to the Mariners. Not that I begrudge the Mariners as their fans can use a win once in a while. But the Yankees single-handedly prolonged the career of Jeremy Bonderman and were pathetic in becoming a trivia quiz question for him. How did they do it? Their pull-happy ways allowed Bonderman to pitch outside and let the Yankees make their own outs. Compare their performance with the Cardinals who always go opposite field with runners on base. All of the Yankees outs except for three against Bonderman were pulled.

Okay, rant over. Saturday's picks:

The Red Sox over the Angels: These two teams will play two games today to make up yesterday's washout. The pitching line is the same as yesterday with Felix Doubront facing Tommy Hanson. Whatever Doubront gives up will be made up by the Red Sox' offense.
The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Mark Buehrle has been much better of late, but Yu Darvish--and this is the caveat--if he is on, will shut down the Blue Jays.
The Mets over the Marlins: The pitching line will be the same as yesterday's. The extra day benefits both Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey as they are both young pitchers thrust into Major League rotations. Harvey is the more reliable however and that is the pick.
The Cubs over the Pirates: Jeff Samardzija and A.J. Burnett are both 3-6 and both deserve a far better record. Both should pitch well with Samardzija pitching just a little bit tighter. Poor A.J.
The Tigers over the Indians: Justin Masterson has pitched fourteen times against the Tigers and is 2-6 with an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.712. Ouch. He never seems to pitch that well against them. That said, he is better this year than in the past. The difference for me here is that Rick Porcello is pitching well and the Tigers are at home. The Tigers' bullpen, however, is a mess.
The Bay Rays over the Orioles: This game could go either way. Neither starter is impressive as Jeremy Hellickson is a five inning pitcher and Kevin Gausman has an ERA over seven. The pick goes to the Rays because they are home and it could be an ugly, high-scoring game.
The Yankees over the Mariners: This pick is more hopeful than smart. Andy Pettitte has not been great and the Yankees have managed just six hits over their last fifteen innings. Joe Saunders is exactly the kind of pitcher that takes advantage of the Yankees pull-happy ways. But the pick is still the Yankees.
The Athletics over the White Sox: Can you pick the White Sox these days the way they are playing? Conversely, can you pick against the A's at this point the way they are playing? Both answers are no. Tommy Milone over John Danks.
The Red Sox over the Angels: That's right, folks, I am predicting a sweep. Clay Buchholz will shut down the Angels with his excellent repertoire and the Red Sox will hit wall balls off of C.J. Wilson.
The Royals over the Astros: The only way the Royals lose this game is if Ervin Santana gives up four homers. But Santana is very capable of doing that. The Royals better score some runs off of Erik Bedard just in case.
The Phillies over the Brewers: This pick is seriously difficult. Good old Tom Gorzelanny makes another spot start in a career full of them. He always does a decent job in them. That left arm helps. Kyle Kendrick is Kyle Kendrick and either his batted balls will find gloves as usual, or they won't and he will look bad...along with this pick.
The Rockies over the Padres: MLB.com does not list a Rockies' pitcher. Both ESPN.com and Yahoo Sports says that Jeff Francis will pitch. Either way, it does not matter as the Rockies are killing the ball and will score another eight to ten runs off of Eric Stults and company.
The Cardinals over the Reds: I know that Mat Latos is really good. But after watching the Cardinals yesterday, I do not know how they ever lose a ballgame. The fact that Tyler Lyons throws from the left side does not matter much to the Reds, however, because they do equally well against either. I just think the Cardinals are the better team right now. Their bullpen scares me though.
The Dodgers over the Braves: Kris Medlen was much better in his last start. But the Dodgers are on a roll as Puig has put a spark in them. I do not know how long it will last, but it will carry at least into today. The only reservation is their starting pitcher of ~~Barney~~ Stephen Fife.
The Giants over the Diamondbacks: One of the Giants' starters needs to come up big. Madison Bumgarner is a guy who can do that. Trevor Cahill has been better in the last month or so, but can still be had. The D-backs are good. But the Giants are not rollovers.

And the Game of the Day!

The Nationals over the Twins: Again, same match-up as yesterday was supposed to be. Gio Gonzalez and Kevin Correia. These two teams will make up their lost game tomorrow. The Twins lose their DH, which for them is a big deal.

Yesterday: 7-5

Week: 42-36

Month: 52-40

Season: 515-390

Games of the Day: 41-25

MLB Game Picks - Friday: June 7, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 11:36:00 +0000

I worked in the yard all day yesterday and then had my golf league last night. So I was pooped and went to bed early. When I did, the picks were 5-0 with one postponement. I woke up this morning and of the remaining five games, only the Yankees (Game of the Day) came in correctly. Two games went into extra innings and as I have mentioned before, such games are the bane of my existence. Both extra inning games came out on the wrong side.

About the only pick that I will consider stupid was picking against the Dodgers. Zack Greinke was brilliant and the Dodgers have certainly gotten a lift from Mr. Yasiel Puig, who hit another homer yesterday, a grand slam, and drove in four of the Dodgers' five runs. Man.

There are several East Coast games to worry about today with Tropical Storm Andrea racing up the coast. Games in peril include home games by the Nationals, Red Sox and Mets. But I will blithely make the picks like they are going to be played just in case:

The Pirates over the Cubs: Francisco Liriano has made five starts thus far this season. He has struck out 39 batters in just 29 innings. Woof. I will take that kind of pitching any day even if Travis Wood is having a very good season.
The Nationals over the Twins: I doubt this game happens. But if it does, yesterday's postponement for the Nats means the Twins get Gio Gonzalez. A lefty against their top lefty hitters is not welcomed. Kevin Correia goes for the Twins. But again, expect a double-header on Saturday.
The Rangers over the Blue Jays: This is a messy game to pick. Esmil Rogers gets a start for the rotation-wrecked Blue Jays. That does not fill me with glee for the Jays. But then again, Nick Tepesch reminds me if the word, "Tepid." There is a nickname for you: Tepid Tepesch.
The Tigers over the Indians: As good as Ubaldo Jimenez has been lately, he goes against Justin Verlander. You have to go with Verlander here, especially at home.
The Red Sox over the Angels: This game is in weather jeopardy. But we will see what happens. If it is played, Felix Doubront should be better than Tommy Hanson.
The Orioles over the Bay Rays: I hate picking against the Rays in general and even more so at home. But Chris Archer is 1-4 in his big league career with a 5.40 ERA. He was not effective in his first start of the season. Jason Hammel at least has a chance to slow down the Rays. At the very least, it will be a high scoring game which still favors the Orioles.
The Mets over the Marlins: Another game in weather jeopardy. But if played, young Jose Fernandez was terrific in his last start and his first season in the big leagues has been like that. Brilliant starts followed by very short ones. In other words, there is no groove from game to game. Even if he is on today, Matt Harvey is tough to match for the Mets.
The Cardinals over the Reds: This is one of the best rivalries in the game right now. The Reds are at home, so that favors them in this series. Adam Wainwright, however, should be better than Mike Leake in this first game of the series.
The Royals over the Astros: The Astros are playing well these days. But not well enough to overcome James Shields, who despite his 2-6 record, is still (in my mind) one of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. Jordan Lyles goes for the Astros. It seems like Lyles pitches every day for some reason.
The White Sox over the Athletics: The A's have been red hot and have been on an amazing streak and have pulled within a half a game from the Rangers in the A.L. West. And the White Sox are a terrible team. But Chris Sale does make a difference in the outcome of this one and as long as he is healthy, of which I am not convinced, he should win at home.
The Phillies over the Brewers: The Phightins just got out of Philly in the nick of time with that storm approaching. I do not know much about Alfredo Figaro Figaro Figaro, but I would imagine that Cliff Lee is better.
The Rockies over the Padres: Edinson Volquez has been fairly solid this season and not nearly as bad as last season. However, he is pitching in Coors Field against a hot-hitting Rockies team. That is not a good situation. Jorge De La Rosa with the win.
The Diamondbacks over the Giants: Again...I hate dealing with winning streaks (or losing streaks) because you never know when the law of averages bites you in the butt. Patrick Corbin is bound to lose some time. But he is so good a pitcher, that you cannot expect it on any given game. I think he wins at home in a close one over Matt Cain.
The Dodgers over the Braves: I will not make the same mistake as yesterday. While I am not fully invested in Hyun-jin Ryu, it is hard to deny that he has had a nice beginning to his Major League career. Again, the Puig factor and the Dodgers at home sway this pick against Paul Maholm.

And the Game of the Day!

The Yankees over the Mariners: I hate picking the same team for the Game of the Day two days in a row, but Jeremy Bonderman? Please. Hiroki Kuroda in a big ballpark? Yes. I will take me some of that. The Yankees, after a tough stretch, are rolling.

Yesterday: 6-4

Week: 35-31

Month: 45-35

Season: 507-385

Games of the Day: 41-24

When Albert Pujols was better than Miguel Cabrera

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 12:35:00 +0000

Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball. Pretty much everyone agrees with that assessment. Oh, you might get a few Votto votes, but Cabrera has pretty much dominated the offensive world for the past three seasons. It was not long ago when that title belonged to Albert Pujols. The run Pujols put together in his first ten seasons rivaled any player that has ever played the game. It seems strange to say that now, doesn't it? Since his last season in St. Louis to his first two years for the Angels, Pujols seems a cut above ordinary. But even the great Miguel Cabrera could not match Pujols at his best.

If you put their first ten years side by side, Pujols comes out on top in just about every category. Pujols had 98 more hits, 40 more doubles, 86 more homers, 205 more walks, 107 more runs driven in and over 200 more runs scored. In some bit of fairness, Pujols had 308 more plate appearances. But even then, there would have been no way for Cabrera to catch up to those numbers.

This is not knocking what Cabrera has done after his first ten years. This exercise is just to show how good Albert Pujols really was. Perhaps you might also argue that Cabrera had all those years with the lowly Marlins to depress his totals. Fair enough. Then just take Cabrera as a Tiger and compare it to Pujols' Cardinal years and he still cannot match what Pujols did.

For example, Cabrera has an amazing 161 OPS+ during his six years with the Tigers. Pujols was at 170 for his ten years with the Cardinals. Cabrera has a .404 on-base percentage with the Tigers. Pujols was at .420 for the Cardinals. Cabrera has a .585 slugging percentage with the Tigers. Pujols slugged .617 with the Cardinals. Heck, Pujols even stole more than 40 bases more than Cabrera in their first ten years as ballplayers in the majors.

About the only thing you can give Cabrera when comparing the two players through their first ten seasons is that he hit into nine less double plays.

The big question for the future is whether Cabrera can keep up the pace of his hitting longer than Pujols did. Since joining the Angels in his Age 32 and Age 33 seasons, Pujols has hit at an .825 OPS pace. That is so far below his career average that it seems like a totally different player. If you look at both players from their Age 27 seasons to their Age 30 seasons, they are too close to call.

Can Cabrera keep up the pace better than Pujols has? Or will he too decline dramatically a couple of seasons from now when he too hits his Age 32 and Age 33 seasons?

The one thing that gives Cabrera fans hope that he can maintain his peak longer than Pujols is that his trend is totally different. Take a look at their two wOBA charts from Fangraphs.com:

The top chart shows not only that Pujols had an amazing peak and hovered around the .400 wOBA mark for years, but also that there has been a sharp decline for four years now. On the bottom graph, or Cabrera's, the trend is up, up and away.

That is not to say that Cabrera will not start to slow down as he goes past thirty like Pujols has. They have similar body types despite Pujols being more of a workout guy with less body fat. Let's just say that Cabrera is trending better and has a chance to stay better.

While it is true that Albert Pujols has been a disappointment since joining the Angels, especially for that contract he signed, the other truth is that this generation of baseball fans has had a chance to see two of the really special careers in the history of baseball. Someday we will look back and reflect on both careers and say, "Man, they were awesome offensive players."

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: June 6, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 11:16:00 +0000

Yesterday was brutal. A few good picks like the D-backs over the Cardinals, the Cubs over the Angels and the Royals over the Twins were overshadowed and overwhelmed by a whole lot of bad results. The Astros hit six homers against the Orioles, or one-eleventh of their season total. I could not get wins from Clayton Kershaw or Hisashi Iwakuma. The Mets sucker-punched Dan Haren. The Rays and Blue Jays shut out the Tigers and Giants respectively. I did not find out until after the picks that Johnny Cueto would not be able to pitch. It just went all wrong.

There are eleven games on the schedule today. Some of them are very interesting. Here are the picks:

The Tigers over the Rays: The pick seems obvious, but that is what scares me. Obvious picks bite hard. But you would think that the Tigers behind the filthy stuff of Max Scherzer should beat the Rays who start Ramon Hernandez. Especially at home.
The Orioles over the Astros: What has gotten into these Astros? They have won eight of their last ten. There were probably six bad picks in there somewhere. So why pick against them today? The Orioles are usually too good to beat twice in a row. Miguel Gonzalez is not that great a pitcher, however. So we will see. Bud Norris goes for the Astros.
The Nationals over the Mets: It has not yet occurred to this picker that the Nationals are not a very good team this year. I keep picking them like it is 2012 when these 2013 Nats are quite mediocre. But I like Gio Gonzalez to be able to shut down Lucas Duda and the Mets with his left arm and though Shaun Marcum had a very good outing last time, I do not expect him to repeat it.
The Red Sox over the Rangers: I expect Jon Lester to pitch well and I expect the Red Sox to score four runs or so against Derek Holland.
The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: Two of my favorite pitchers go in this one. Shelby Miller takes his impressive arm out to the hill and faces Ian Kennedy who has made a career of beating aces. I would not put Miller in the ace category yet, so I think I am safe. The Cards' bullpen still needs to get deeper.
The Royals over the Twins: The Royals have not tasted a victory like yesterday's in a while and I have a theory that winning is contagious. I think that carries over today and that Wade Davis will out-pitch Mike Pelfrey.
The White Sox over the Athletics: See above. The White Sox finally broke their losing streak and have one of their better pitchers on the mound in Carlos Quintana. If he can be decent, the White Sox have a chance to win against Dan Straily.
The Brewers over the Phillies: I cannot seem to get a handle on Wily Peralta. He is this black hole for me where I do not know if he is decent or not decent. But the pick is based on that Tyler Cloyd has been rather ordinary for the Phillies with a base runner and a half allowed every nine innings. The Brewers' bullpen could screw this up though.
The Rockies over the Padres: Everybody seems to be jumping on the Rockies bandwagon and maybe there is something to it. There is not a gigantic split in their home and away hitting like most years and of their eighty team homers, only 40 of them have been hit at home. Therefore, they seem more balanced and their pitching is holding up. Jhoulys Chacin over Andrew Cashner.
The Braves over the Dodgers: There is a lot to like from both pitchers in this game. Both Zack Greinke and Tim Hudson can pitch big-time games and both are good hitting pitchers too. I just like the Braves' lineup better than the Dodgers' at this point.

And the Game of the Day!

The Yankees over the Mariners: Each team has an advantage in this one. The Yankees had to fly all the way across the country without a day off. But that advantage is overcome by pitching Aaron Harang and having a burnt up bullpen for the Mariners after a sixteen inning game. Phil Hughes should be better in a big ballpark.

Yesterday: 6-9 oof

Week: 29-27

Month: 39-31

Season: 501-381

Games of the Day: 40-24

Be careful what you wish for, MLB

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 05 Jun 2013 12:05:00 +0000

As much fun as Major League Baseball was last night, the games, the action and the excitement were overshadowed by ESPN's Outside the Lines scoop on the deal Major League Baseball has reached with the former owner of Biogenesis of America, Tony Bosch, to rat on his former customers. The zeal with which MLB has pursued this case has known no bounds and reminds me of the ax-wielding swarms that used to arrive at liqueur stockpiles during Prohibition. All I can say to MLB is: Be careful what you wish for.

I have been on record many times as not caring one iota what ball players put in their bodies. I have never changed my stance on that. The players implicated in the past, whether it be the Mitchell Report or otherwise have ranged from great players to terrible ones. A great player is a great player and a terrible player is still a terrible player.

Plus, there are two other things that make this all unseemly for me. First, the largest percentage of players targeted in these things are always Hispanic players and this will be no different. That makes this all seem like some kind of witch hunt. The second is that there are so many grey areas already in what players can and cannot do. Toradol is okay. Blood transfusions and therapy are okay. Heck, even Cortisone could be considered a performance enhancing drug.

But the mess this particular case can lead to could be years in the boiler. With basically a guy like Tony Bosch, who is trying to save his own skin, providing he-said-she-said testimony and without positive drug tests to support it, players such as Ryan Braun will fight this in courts for as long as it takes. The players' union, which has been quiet up until now, will rear its head if 100-game suspensions are lobbed about.

You really have to question MLB's motivation in the zeal they are pursuing this. Are they simply determined to clean up a mess they created in the first place with their own blind eye during the 1990s? Are they trying to keep the government and international sports bodies off of their backs? Is this an end run on some of the bigger contracts in baseball in Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun? Who is to really know?

What is known is that this continuing mess will continue to darken the game for years to come and pull positive vibes and attention away from growth that has exploded in the finances of the sport. Big time media writers get to whet their chops like a meteorologist during an approaching hurricane and give them something to write about to save their jobs in a dying writer's economy for another couple of years which will prevent more players from reaching the Hall of Fame where they belong.

I write not only in a semi-media and journalistic approach but also as a fan of the game. As the latter, this is not what I want my focus on. Oh, some fans will use this as a reason to scream at players who make more money than fans will ever dream about and will side with the media-types. But the rest of us just want to watch our baseball, marvel at pitching match-ups and enjoy our favorite sport. Those of us that are in the latter category, and we are legion, hate this. And we hate it with a passion.

If that is what you want, MLB, by all means, go for it. Go get your zeal on. Go make your examples on fifteen or more Hispanics of the twenty total names. Go ahead and piss on South and Central American fans and nationalists. This is America and you have a right to pursue your agenda. Just do not be surprised when it all blows up in your face and the gains you have so vigorously pursued in the game are thwarted by this perpetual cloud you insist on salting. Get your lawyers in a row. You will need them.

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: June 5, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 05 Jun 2013 11:21:00 +0000

The picks had a much better day yesterday despite a rash of extra inning games. Two of the three of those went for me (thank you Andrelton Simmons and John Mayberry Jr.) and one went against. I was excited about Tyler Skaggs versus Michael Wacha and both got knocked silly, so that did not pan out. Matt Moore got rocked. Whoops. Tim Lincecum saved his rotation spot for another day. It was an interesting day of baseball for sure.

Today is getaway day for twelve teams and six of the games are day games. Sweet. What else will Yasiel Puig do? Holy cow, eh? Here are Wednesday's picks:

The Braves over the Pirates: While this Pirates team is better than the ones that folded the last couple of seasons, they are finding that the Braves are the better team. While I like picking Wandy Rodriguez on my outings, this one has to go to the Braves for the sweep. Julio Teheran will try to make that happen.
The Yankees over the Indians: In another sweep attempt, I might as well go all giddy and pick for the Yankees. CC Sabathia will try to build on his last terrific outing and a very good Corey Kluber will try to keep his string of good pitching going.
The Phillies over the Marlins: The 1-9 Cole Hamels has to get a win some time. Otherwise, this is about as surreal as it gets. Jacob Turner had about as good a first outing his last time out for the Marlins as you could ask for. But the Phillies are starting to hit better.
The Brewers over the Athletics: Once again, I cannot find in myself the ability to pick against Yovani Gallardo at home. He has simply been too good there over the years. And Bartolo Colon has one clunker of an outing for every three good ones, so the ratio says that he is due.
The Mariners over the White Sox: Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales are about as hot as hitters can get right now and Hisashi Iwakuma should take care of the rest. Young Dylan Axelrod will not be able to keep up.
The Giants over the Blue Jays: Last night was a microcosm of the Blue Jays' season. Edwin Encarnacion hit a bomb of a homer to dead center field. Then, later, he hit a grounder to short that was booted and he still got thrown out because he did not hustle. Not acceptable and a symptom of why this team is underachieving. Barry Zito against R.A. Dickey is an unsettling pitching line though.
The Cubs over the Angels: This is the upset pick of the day. Matt Garza is auditioning for a stretch run trade to a contender and has looked great. Jason Vargas can have good games but can have bad ones too. I think Alfonso Soriano gets a hold of one in this game.
The Nationals over the Mets: Now that Dillon Gee is not pitching against the Yankees, he will revert back to form and that is not good for the Mets. Dan Haren is not a shut down starter anymore, but will keep the Nats in the game so they can win it.
The Tigers over the Bay Rays: Unless the Tigers used up all their offense last night, they should take this one as long as the good Doug Fister shows up. Doug Fister versus Alex Cobb is actually a very good match-up, so it will be interesting to see which one has the better night. It is a toss up.
The Reds over the Rockies: Last night's game got away from the Reds and from a correct pick. But this one should not be close as Johnny Cueto should pitch a good game and Jon Garland gives up his typical four or five runs.
The Red Sox over the Rangers: On a podcast I did the other day, I mentioned that I liked the way John Lackey was throwing. So I have to put my picks where my mouth is. Alexi Ogando's health is always a concern and there was some talk that he would miss this start. That makes me leery.
The Orioles over the Astros: Wow! I am not real down with this pitching line of Freddy Garcia against Dallas Keuchel. This will be a shooting match with the Orioles having a bit more fireworks on their barge than the Astros.
The Royals over the Twins: The Royals are about as moribund as a team can get. No life. No spark. Deadsville. But I still believe in Jeremy Guthrie and I still do not believe in P.J. Walters. After all, how can I pick a guy named after sleepwear?
The Diamondbacks over the Cardinals: I do not like what I see in this one for the Cardinals. Their bullpen is toasted and one of those bullpen arms, Joe Kelly, makes a spot start. Not ideal. Wade Miley has really struggled in the last month. He is a finesse guy and needs to get it back on the black.

And the Game of the Day!

The Dodgers over the Padres: This is the Yasiel Puig show and we are all just spectators. Not only that, but Clayton Kershaw is pitching at home. Yee Haw, Kershaw! I do not think it will matter how good or bad Jason Marquis pitches. We are simply watching a spectacle right now.

Yesterday: 10-5

Week: 23-18

Month: 33-22

Season: 495-372

Games of the Day: 40-23

Talked baseball on Dear Mr. Fantasy podcast

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 04 Jun 2013 11:48:00 +0000

Chris McBrien (@cmcbrien) and the Fantasy Doctor (@TheFantasyDR) are really, really good at doing podcasts. They speak well (and fast) and the show is one of the best I have ever listened to. And it is entertaining even if you are not into Fantasy Baseball.

Next to them, I felt a little like a brown shoe in a tuxedo convention (to borrow an old comedian's line). But it was fun and you should listen. Just follow this link.

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: June 4, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 04 Jun 2013 11:39:00 +0000

The Astros swept the Angels! Four straight and last night the Astros tallied only three hits and still won the game. How bad can the Angels be? This is really amazing. And it is perhaps time to also acknowledge how bad the White Sox are. And Domonic Brown is playing demonic right now. Wow, is he hot. Now if only the picks could go on a hot streak. Mediocrity has been the norm and I am sure sick of being ordinary.

Perhaps Tuesday will start my own hot strike. The picks:

The Yankees over the Indians: Last night was encouraging for the Yankees except that Pettitte was not very good. But the runs scored were hopeful and the relief pitching was brilliant. David Phelps should bounce back from his awful start last time out. Scott Kazmir will not last long.
The Marlins over the Phillies: Ricky Nolasco is always capable of a shutdown game and I am still not convinced about Jonathan Pettibone. This pick is a bit of a stretch, but that is what I am feeling about it.
The Bay Rays over the Tigers: It is the Matt Moore Show and it sure has been fun to watch. Of course, Miguel Cabrera can hit anybody. Anibal Sanchez could totally shut down the Rays, so that is something to think about. But the sane pick here is Moore.
The Reds over the Rockies: The Reds and Cardinals are the two best teams in the National League. Homer Bailey had a great start and then a bad start. I wish he was more consistent. If he is the good Homer, the Reds win easy. Juan Nicasio can be pretty decent though.
The Braves over the Pirates: Great match-up here. Mike Minor has been fantastic and so has Jeff Locke. So if two pitchers cancel each other out, the rule here is always going with the better offense.
The Red Sox over the Rangers: I would be considerably concerned about Ryan Dempster if I did not know that he is so much better than he has shown so far. And picking him against the Rangers would seem stupid except that the Red Sox should do really well against a young pitcher like Justin Grimm.
The Orioles over the Astros: Wow! How can you pick against the Astros!? They have won four straight. And they get the Orioles' weakest pitcher in Chris Tillman. But let's be real here. This is the Astros. Lucas Harrell is the pitcher the Orioles will beat.
The Twins over the Royals: Ugh. Remember going to the lunch line in high school and having to pick one ugly looking slop to eat over another one? :::shiver::: Sam Deduno and Luis Mendoza. Yay! Great choices there.
The Brewers over the Athletics: I would think that the A's have never seen Kyle Lohse before, so that gives the crafty pitcher an advantage. At the same time, Lohse is 1-6. Whoops. A.J. Griffin goes for the A's.
The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: How fun is this! In a battle of first round picks, Michael Wacha and Tyler Skaggs get to go head to head. Both of their first starts were lights out. This is going to be fun to watch. The Cardinals will win though.
The Angels over the Cubs: It would be easy to pick against the Angels after their last four days, and their season for that matter. But Jered Weaver pitching is a whole other thing. Scott Feldman has been very good for the Cubs, but he is not as good as Weaver.
The Mariners over the White Sox: Wow. The White Sox are terrible. Why is that just sinking in? Even Jake Peavy has been subpar. And tonight they go against Felix Hernandez at home. Good luck with that.
The Dodgers over the Padres: I am back on that bad lunch line again and the choices this time are Ted Lilly and Clayton Richard. Yeesh. At least Lilly used to be good before his 157 injuries. So perhaps he has a good game in him. Plus, it is Puig-mania in LA.
The Blue Jays over the Giants: This one is really tough to call. The Giants are at home. But Tim Lincecum is pitching. The Blue Jays are bashing the ball, but Josh Johnson is coming back from the disabled list. What is a picker to do? Flip and hope I guess.

And the Game of the Day!

The Nationals over the Mets: My man, Jordan Zimmermann is going to shut down the Mets and the Nats are going to hit Jeremy Hefner. Nats, Nats, Nats.

Yesterday: 5-4

Week: 12-12

Month: 23-17

Season: 485-367

Games of the Day: 39-23

MLB Game Picks - Monday: June 3, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 03 Jun 2013 10:12:00 +0000

Yesterday was not a good picking day. It would have been better if not for bullpens. The Reds had a 4-2 lead on the Pirates until Jonathan Broxton happened. The Tigers had a lead on the Orioles until Phil Coke happened. Without those two events, the day would have been decent. But that is a four game swing on the final tally. One of those baby Cardinal pitchers finally lost a game. Matt Harvey of the Mets was uncharacteristically shelled. And unbelievably, the Angels were beaten by the Astros again!

There are nine games on the schedule today with three of them being on the West Coast. Here are Monday's picks:

The Yankees over the Indians: Lots of questions on this one. How good will Andy Pettitte be coming back from the disabled list? Will it be the good Justin Masterson or the bad one? Can the reeling New York Yankees get their act together? Will Terry Francona and Joe Girardi spend more than fifteen minutes praising each other?
The Reds over the Rockies: Yes, Tyler Chatwood is 3-0 and has been lights out. No, I am not quite buying it. Yes, Bronson Arroyo can give up runs in bunches and no, he will not today.
The Pirates over the Braves: The Pirates are a legitimately good team. Their record is not a fluke. I am not quite convinced by their offense, but the pitching has been there. A.J. Burnett could strike out ten Braves today as they are prone to do that. Then again, Burnett could give up half a dozen gopher balls too. Kris Medlen is 1-6. I never expected that to happen.
The Brewers over the Athletics: Tough game to call. The A's always seem to find a way to win. Tommy Milone is the key to the game. He really has not pitched well since his May 7 start and that was five starts ago. The Brewers feature Ryan Braun, who loves him some lefty pitching. Marco Estrada is probably under-appreciated.
The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: Trevor Cahill has been much better the last few weeks. But Lance Lynn is a stud and the Cards' offense is terrific. I like the Cardinals here, especially at home.
The Angels over the Astros: I have been picking it this way all weekend and have gone down in flames all weekend. I might as well finish the series being stubborn. If the Angels lose again, their manager should get sacked. Plain and simple. Joe Blanton and Erik Bedard are the starters.
The White Sox over the Mariners: The White Sox have not won in a while, so they are due. John Danks has looked pretty good since coming back. Joe Saunders is always capable of baffling Major League batters for a game. This one can go either way.
The Dodgers over the Padres: I might as well continue my season long streak of being zero for picking Eric Stults. I pick him to win and he loses. I pick him to lose and he wins. I think he will win today, so I picked him to lose. Desperation leads men to do strange things. Chris Capuano needs to have a good game. Eek.

And the Game of the Day!

The Phillies over the Marlins: The Marlins just mashed the Mets for most of the weekend and are getting some offense all of the sudden. But Kyle Kendrick just somehow wins all the time. He just does. It is best not to think about it too much because your head will explode. Tom Koehler goes for the Fish.

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 7-8

Month: 18-13

Season: 480-363

Games of the Day: 38-23

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: June 2, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sun, 02 Jun 2013 10:35:00 +0000

Finally! A good day. I was right about May. I just needed to get out of that month because on the first day of June, only five picks were incorrect out of sixteen games. Those five were the Yankees...hehe...yeah, that was a good pick, the Pirates (Liriano pitched great, Leake was better), the Angels (to Houston again!?), the Cubs (all good things come to an end), and Texas (a tip of the cap to James Shields). I will take that. I called both games of the Cards - Giants double-header. I called the Marlins over the Mets. I called Ubaldo Jimenez over the Rays. So, yeah, it was a good day.

Sunday's picks:

The Indians over the Bay Rays: I went back and forth on this one. Zach McAllister has pitched well against weak-hitting teams and really struggled against good teams. He did beat the Rays in his first start of the season. He and Jeremy Hellickson are pretty similar. I am going with the home team.
The Mets over the Marlins: You know that Matt Harvey is going to pitch well. The only question is whether the Mets will get him any runs. Harvey has no-decisions in half of his starts. Kevin Slowey is of the "crafty" pitching variety, so this is a big contrast in pitching styles.
The Reds over the Pirates: Jeanmar Gomez is giving me fits this season. He really has become a ground ball pitcher and really has not had a bad outing since he joined the Pirates' rotation. But the pick has to go to the big stud, Mat Latos. Joey Votto has to figure into this one somehow.
The Tigers over the Orioles: This is a bit of a tough one. Rick Porcello is coming off probably his best outing as a Tiger. But the Orioles could really whack him hard. But on the other hand, Kevin Gausman has not been able to get Major League hitters out in his two starts.
The Braves over the Nationals: I am not too impressed by either of the team's starters. Nathan Karns was just barely passable in his first start. Paul Maholm is a contact guy who needs the balls to be hit at somebody. The Braves have not been giving the Nats any room to breathe thus far this season, so that is the pick.
The Twins over the Mariners: The Mariners are starting Jeremy Bonderman. Holy cow! Bonderman has not pitched in the majors since 2010. Now that is a cool kind of thing. But picking him to pitch well would be another thing. Scott Diamond goes for the Twins. Jeremy Bonderman...wow...
The Cardinals over the Giants: I thought Bonderman was a surprise until I got to this pick. The Giants are listing Chad Gaudin as today's starter. Chad Gaudin? Yeesh. Tyler Lyons tries to keep his stunning early success in the big leagues going.
The Diamondbacks over the Cubs: This pick is a bit troubling. First, Edwin Jackson has to win a game sooner or later. Second, as good as he has been, Patrick Corbin has to lose a game eventually. Will these two events happen today? Unlikely.
The Rangers over the Royals: The Rangers should hit like five homers today since Ervin Santana is pitching. Yu Darvish is confusing. Does anybody have better stuff than him? And yet, him winning a game is never a guarantee.
The Angels over the Astros: Hey, if I keep picking this outcome, it has to happen eventually. I am a bit stubborn that way. C.J. Wilson needs to live up to his Head and Shoulders commercials. And Jordan Lyles still sounds like a country singer or some soap opera name.
The White Sox over the Athletics: I do not know how healthy Chris Sale is. If he is healthy, he should dominate. If not, then the pick will blow up. Jarrod Parker has had a troubling season for the A's.
The Rockies over the Dodgers: I am not sure how well Hyun-Jin Ryu's stuff will translate at Coors Field. And Jorge De La Rosa is just a better option pitching in that wild place than Ryu. He is more of a know entity there.
The Red Sox over the Yankees: The Red Sox are just a better team right now. Their infield defense is spectacular with Iglesias at third. Clay Buchholz and his health are a bit of a concern. The only way this pick goes awry is if Buchholz is not healthy and if Hiroki Kuroda pitches at the top of his game.
The Padres over the Blue Jays: Edinson Volquez's biggest problem is his command and control. But that is less of a problem against a Blue Jays' team that is undisciplined at the plate (except for Bautista and Encarnacion). Also, Ramon Ortiz starting for the Jays is just to unfathomable.

And the Game of the Day!

The Phillies over the Brewers: Mike Fiers will not be able to go deep in the game as he has not pitched longer than four-plus innings all season. Cliff Lee, on the other hand, is having a great season. Domonic Brown has been killing the ball.

Yesterday: 11-5

Last week: 55-48

Month: 11-5

Season: 473-355

Games of the Day: 37-23

Cardinals' home grown pitchers are phenomenal

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 01 Jun 2013 17:52:00 +0000

A lot of research would be needed to find another team with so much home-grown young pitchers performing as well as the young pitchers of the St. Louis Cardinals in the long history of the game. With an average age of 23.8 years old, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Tyler Lyons, John Gast and now Michael Wacha have gone a combined 16-4 with a 2.54 ERA. And that is just the starting pitchers and does not include Trevor Rosenthal and Seth Maness, two more home grown pitchers who are also performing well in the bullpen. The startling thing about all these pitchers is that they were all drafted by the Cardinals.

Let's look at the list again:

Lance Lynn: Drafted by the Cardinals in the first round in 2008
Shelby Miller: Drafted by the Cardinals in the first round in 2009
Tylor Lyons: Drafted by the Cardinals in the tenth round in 2010
John Gast: Drafted by the Cardinals in the sixth round in 2010
Michael Wacha: Drafted by the Cardinals in the first round in 2012
Seth Maness: Drafted by the Cardinals in the eleventh round in 2011
Trevor Rosenthal: Drafted by the Cardinals in the twenty-first round in 2009

Again, this seems unprecedented and remarkable. How could so many pitchers be drafted by the same team in a five year span and all be making a positive impact on the Major League staff? It is remarkable.

Let's focus on just the starters from here on out. Here are their collective numbers of the starters in the above list:

Starts: 27
Record: 16-4
Winning percentage: .800
ERA: 2.54
K/9: 8.71
K/BB: 3.29
HR/9: 0.49
WHIP: 0.998

Amazing. And this is not really a fluke. I did a little research on first year starters going back to 2009. Here are the collective stats I found concerning all those pitchers:

2010 - Winning percentage: .438, ERA: 4.55, K/BB: 1.90, WHIP: 1.429
2011 - Winning percentage: .386, ERA: 4.63, K/BB: 1.86, WHIP: 1.427
2012 - Winning percentage: .461, ERA: 4.36, K/BB: 2.32, WHIP: 1.355
2013 - Winning percentage: .461, ERA: 5.12, K/BB: 2.16, WHIP: 1.456

And that includes some pseudo-rookies like Yu Darvish, Hisashi Iwakuma and other imports. Now the following is those same numbers collectively of all Cardinal starters in their first year starts since 2011:

Baby Cards: Winning percentage: .579, ERA: 3.17, K/BB: 2.64, WHIP: 1.201

Have I made your jaw drop yet? Somehow, the Cardinals have managed to draft pitchers since 2008, spin them through their system and spit them out to the Major Leagues and have them perform far better than all the other teams combined doing the same thing. Whether this is great scouting, great drafting, great coaching, great luck, or the combination of all the above, the Cardinals are beating the odds and they are beating them handily.

I think back over the past thirty years and all the great young staffs. The 1990s Braves got Greg Maddux from the Cubs. Last year's Oakland A's compiled their arms from other teams. Perhaps the early 2000's A's with Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito come to mind.

But I can tell you that after watching baseball for fifty years, what is going on with these young home grown Cardinals does not happen often and is remarkable that it is happening at all. Such a progression from draft to minors to the majors for the St. Louis franchise has been incredibly fun to watch.