The Flagrant Fan

The Ichiro Lead Off Debate

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:44:00 +0000

Eric Wedge is talking tough about Ichiro Suzuki according to an Associated Press piece reported on ESPN.com. Wedge is quoted in the report as saying, "Ultimately it's not just about Ichiro, it's about our club and his 24 other teammates." Those are some pretty strong words. If you read between the lines there, Wedge is saying that he can't be worried about what Ichiro thinks. Does that statement also hint that what Ichiro thinks is a problem? Could be. The bigger question isn't whether Wedge has a problem or not with Ichiro's pride. The question is whether Ichiro should be the Mariners' lead off batter.

It is very easy to believe the sky is falling concerning Ichiro Suzuki. He is entering the 2012 season as a 38 year old who showed major signs that time caught up with him last year. He failed for the first time to reach 200 hits and his final slash line of, .273/.310/.337 really exacerbates the reality that Suzuki doesn't walk enough for a lead off batter if he fails to hit. The outfielder walked only 26 non-intentional times in 721 plate appearances (he was intentionally walked 13 times). His low walk rate has always been his reality (6.2 percent lifetime), but his ability to hit safely better than most humans made that somewhat acceptable. When the batting average falls to .272, the low walk rate becomes more of an issue.

And it's not as if Ichiro just had a bad half of a season in 2011. Both his first half and second half were very similar. But there is a glimmer of hope that Ichiro Suzuki could rebound a little bit. A lot of Ichiro's metrics remained static in 2011. His line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates were all within his career norms. So were his strikeouts. The only real difference was the number of his batted balls that fell safely in play. Ichiro has a career BABIP of .354. The three years prior to 2011 included these BABIP rates respectively: .334, .384, .353. Last year his BABIP was .294, easily the lowest of his career. Without knowing the quality of that contact (MPH off the bat), the assumption could be made that there is room for some bounce back.

There is this myth that the lead off position is this haven of on-base heaven in baseball. That is more wish than reality. Lead off batters in all of baseball last year had a slash line of .267/.328/.398. In 2010 it was, .264/.329/.384. Lead off batters who have a high on-base percentage are more the exception than the rule (market inefficiency?). Ichiro's average was above the average while his on-base percentage and slugging were lower than league average.

But what if he were to recover some? Three different projections systems were consulted for this post. Ichiro's projected slash lines in the three: .303/.347/.377, .291/.332/.359 and .303/.344/.382. All three of those projections see some bounce back and put Ichiro's average and on-base well above league average.

To see what Eric Wedge is looking at in the big picture, some discussion needs to take place about other lead off options the manager might have. Dustin Ackley's name comes to mind immediately. In Ackley's debut season in 2011, his on-base percentage was .348--well above Ichiro's. Ackley finished his minor league career with an on-base percentage of .381. Projections from three different systems put Ackley's on-base percentage in 2012 anywhere from .341 to .373. If Ackley can do that, he becomes just slightly more effective as a lead off batter than Ichiro's projections. Is there anyone else?

Justin Smoak has very good patience at the plate, but he's the power hitter you want in the middle of the line up. The same goes for Jesus Montero. Franklin Gutierrez has a .310 lifetime on-base percentage. That doesn't work. Mike Carp is counted on for power. Brendan Ryan doesn't hit enough.

The bottom line is that Ichiro and Ackley are the only two on the team that make sense in the line up position. They are, in fact, interchangeable in their ability to get on base. Since Ackley has more ability to get extra base hits, it seems to make more sense to bat him second behind Ichiro rather than in front of him. Perhaps Eric Wedge is trying to motivate Ichiro Suzuki. In the last season of his contract, if Ichiro wants to continue playing beyond 2012, he will have enough motivation to improve on what was a lost 2011. The Mariners should start the season with Ichiro Suzuki as their lead off batter and give it fifty games to see what happens.

BBA Link Fest - Change in General

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 16:54:00 +0000

Welcome to another Thursday link fest! Every Thursday, we take a stroll around the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, focusing on the General Chapter. What is the General Chapter? They are BBA affiliated sites that aren't specific to a single team and write whatever crosses their awesomely talented minds. Do yourself a big favor and click some of these links and read some great baseball writing. Not only will you be glad you did, but you'll have our appreciation as well. Thank you always for your support. Okay, enough intro, let's get to the links:

Change is the theme this week and if that's the case, we must start with The Platoon Advantage. Our good friends announced that once a week, their work will be featured at Baseball Prospectus. Hearty congrats to our pals as they deserve as much wide recognition as possible. And just to prove that their fine writing will also continue at the home site, here's a sample of when TCM met the commissioner and drank his beer. A subscription to BP only costs about $3.95 a month and is very much worth the cost. Now you have one more reason to get it!

Over at one of our newer member sites, Justin of BaseBlog has a fun series going recounting Sports Illustrated covers for different teams. Cool beans. So far he's done the Cardinals and the Brewers.

Speaking of change, the Tigers certainly changed their team this week. Sully over at Sully Baseball thinks the Tigers made a more sensible deal that the Angels.

One thing that never changes is that Through the Fence Baseball always has terrific content to read every week. This Fan particularly liked this post celebrating a baseball movie that actually garnered Oscar consideration.

Jake Ciely is flabbergasted by the Fielder deal. His X-Log post finds a way to get past his shock and makes some sport bet suggestions.

In this week's Fan choice for post of the week, Russ Blatt over at 85% Sports has a touching piece on his friend, Gary Carter.

Another change occurred this week that got someone overlooked because of the Fielder deal. But Sooze over at Babes Love Baseball makes sure we know that Timmy got paid.

The Fan has to feel for one of his favorite buds over at The Ball Caps Blog. First, his beloved 49ers lost their playoff game. Now he bemoans the talent drain in the National League.

If Russ Blatt hadn't touched this Fan's heartstrings, this post from FHPromos over at Baseballism on where Jorge Posada fits in among Yankee catchers through history would have been the best of the week. Terrific stuff.

Easily one of our most active sites with terrific content every single day is Call to the Pen. The Fan's favorite this week is a rally cry for the Washington Nationals written by Lew Freedman.

Over at the Crum-Bum Beat, Curly Bender has another terrific baseball-related movie moment for us. But it's not about Moneyball. Great read. He's also got a fabulous picture of Louis Tiant you simply have to see.

Mario Salvini from our Italian entry, Che Palle! has a terrific entry this week remembering Italian ball player, Vic Raschi.

Three of our favorite writers from three different General Chapter sites had a baseball show event recently that you must listen to. You can find it here over at Diamond Hoggers.

Speaking of change, is it just the Fan or did For Baseball Junkies get a new logo? If so, it looks terrific. If it's the same one as they've always had, then this Fan feels pretty stupid, but it's still a great logo. Anyway, check out their great perspective on the Fielder deal.

The Baseball Index reports on a deal the Blue Jays made for a relief pitcher. Is it just this Fan, or do the Blue Jays try to catch bullpen lightening in a bottle every season?

More great stuff from Golden Sombrero this week. More great prospect reports but this is a great article by Dee Clark on a positive way of looking at the steroid scandal.

Loic, a writer on our French affiliate, MajorBaseball.fr has reactions to the Rafael Betancourt deal.

Grubby Glove has a truly great and interesting piece this week on the 1972 Topps baseball cards. This Fan remembers buying those in his youth.

The Hall of Very Good has some of the most fascinating posts. Just this week you can read about Adam Dunn's amazing season, Jose Canseco at the AVN Awards and this post, about Heath Bell's amazing backyard.

Theo over at Hot Corner Harbor has another one of his famous quizzes this week. So much fun!

In a terrifically well-written piece, Left Field gives us a discussion on views of success and failure that you must read.

In their own off-beat style, Major League A**holes has their take on the Prince Fielder signing.

After digesting the trade for a couple of weeks, Michael Schwartze has a different look at the Pineda - Montero trade over at MLB Dirt.

The Baseball Wives reality show has gotten a lot of ink lately. But as usual, it's sometimes difficult to remember that these are real people. Jonathan Hacohen of MLB Reports helps fix that with a terrific interview with Maggie McCracken.

MTD, our favorite absurdist from Off Base Percentage is going to change his name. Why? Read this.

And finally, Old Time Family Baseball reports that Alex Cora hasn't retired after all. And check out their birthday tribute to Bob Uecker by clicking on the site's heading.

Have a great week everyone!

Why is Colby Lewis a Rotation Lock?

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 05:03:00 +0000

Almost forgotten in the "Rangers didn't get Fielder," story line which has eclipsed all other news this week, is that, yes, the Rangers signed Yu Darvish. Without thinking about it deeply, Darvish simply rolls into C.J. Wilson's vacated slot since Wilson signed with the Angels. But it's far more complicated than, "Darvish equals Wilson." The Rangers are also intent on trying Neftali Feliz in the starting rotation which gives the Rangers a bit of a nice problem with too many starting pitchers. That brings us to this post over at ESPN.com's Dallas affiliate which presented a debate by two writers there about what the Rangers should do about it. Their conclusions were a bit astounding.

One of the writers said that Alexi Ogando should go to the bullpen where he was such a force in the playoffs. The other writer posited that Ogando should be given a full chance at starting and Matt Harrison should be traded for needed parts (center field and first base). Both writers based their calls on Darvish followed by Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz (and this is the kicker) and Colby Lewis being a lock for the rotation. The swing spot was either Harrison or Ogando depending on the writer. The big question this Fan has is: Why is Colby Lewis a lock?

According to Fangraphs.com, this was the following fWAR scores by starting pitcher: Wilson (5.9), Harrison (4.2), Holland (3.6), Ogando (3.6) and Lewis (2.3). Aren't you seeing what this Fan is seeing? Baseball-reference.com has them in the same exact order though the numbers differ a little bit. Baseball Prospectus agrees with the same order. Is there any basis to bump Colby Lewis above both Ogando and Harrison?

The answer to that question depends on which statistic you believe to be the fluke number for Colby Lewis. He was wonderful in 2010 after coming back from Japan. He put up a 4.6 fWAR season. His FIP that season at 3.55 was better than his final ERA of 3.72. He struck out a healthy 8.78 batters per nine innings while only walking 2.91. Last year wasn't as good for Lewis. His FIP rose up to 4.54 and his homers per nine really spiked to 1.57 per nine after limiting them to under one in 2010. So was 2010 the fluke or the homers in 2011?

This writer doesn't believe the homers were a fluke. Why? Colby Lewis is a fly ball pitcher. His ground ball to fly ball ratios the past two seasons have been 0.84 and 0.70 respectively. Fly balls fly far in Texas. Matt Harrison, on the other hand, doesn't strike out as many batters as Lewis (6.11 to Lewis' 7.59 in 2011). But Harrison is a ground ball pitcher pitching to the best fielding infield in baseball. Harrison's ground ball to fly ball ratio the past two seasons have been 1.42 and 1.47. Doesn't that work better in Texas with that infield?

Ogando is pretty neutral in the ground ball category. His ground ball to fly ball ratio was 0.91. Everyone falls on Ogando because he collapsed a bit in the second half. But the Rangers stretched him out to 169 innings which was uncharted territory. It's only natural that he might have run out of gas. And Ogando simply has better stuff than either Harrison or Lewis and should be allowed to develop as a starter.

The left-handed angle with Matt Harrison is not a good argument. Unlikely as it seems, Harrison had more trouble with left-handed batters in 2011 than he did with right-handed batters. You would think it would be the other way around. But Lewis is even worse against left-handed batters and such batters had an .829 OPS against Lewis last season. To be fair, Colby Lewis is death to right-handed batters.

This post is no knock on Colby Lewis. The guy has been a terrific story for the Rangers since he got back from Japan. His post-season heroics are noted. And Lewis is a good guy to have around with his Japanese connection as Darvish makes the transition. But in this humble writer's opinion, the Rangers' future revolves around Darvish, Ogando, Harrison and Holland. The Rangers should be building these guys for the long run.

The wild card in all this is Feliz. Can he make the transition? Is he worth the risk? Certainly, Wilson and Ogando have paved the way and make it hard to say that Feliz can't make the transition. You have to think that if any team can pull it off, the team would be the Rangers. It simply grieves the inner geek in this writer to have the experiment happen at the expense of either Harrison or Ogando. When Wilson and Ogando were converted, there were no other options available. There are now.

One of the writers in the article linked above threw off the comment that the Rangers could use Ogando in the bullpen in 2012 and still convert him to a starter in 2013. As soon as that comment was read, the mind immediately raced to Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Oh man, don't go down that road if you can help it.

The Rangers have a nice problem on their hands with too much starting pitching. We will all be interested in how that works itself out. Feliz will get his chance. Colby Lewis is even being talked about as the Opening Day starter. This Fan just can't get away from the feeling that Lewis is the sixth best option of this rotation (giving Feliz the benefit of the doubt). And don't forget, a now healthy Scott Feldman could probably start on most teams. Look at the post season he had. This writer isn't sold on Colby Lewis and the Texas Rangers shouldn't be either. These things have a way of working themselves out so we'll just have to wait and see.

When La Russa Manages the All Star Game

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 15:37:00 +0000

The St. Louis Cardinals won the 2011 World Series and though that team's Hall of Fame manager, Tony La Russa retired immediately after, it's only fitting that he be tabbed to manage the NL All Star team in 2012. According to the linked article describing La Russa's appointment, this is the first time a retiring manager has managed an All Star Game since John McGraw did so in the 1933 classic. It's a fitting tribute and will provide a symmetry of sorts as this will be La Russa's third NL All Star manager appearance equaling the amount of times he did so as an American League manager.

The announcement could lead to some interesting results for the National League team when they play as the visiting team in Kansas City this July. Since this is La Russa's last shot at holding the reins in the dugout, expect the unexpected. What follows is a peak at some of the things you could see.

After facing two batters in the first inning, Clayton Kershaw is stunned to see La Russa on his way to the mound. "But, Skip, I only faced two batters." La Russa responds by telling the pitcher that he doesn't like the match up.
At some point in the contest, one of the NL outfield All Stars will play second base.
Before the game, La Russa will not name the NL's closer. Jonathan Papelbon will still think it should be him.
In the seventh inning, La Russa will set an All Star record for most pitching changes in an inning. The television network broadcasting the game will be delighted with the three extra commercial breaks.
With his new gig in the MLB front office, La Russa will instantly punish an umpire who makes a bad call. Don't be surprised to see one of the men in black doing push-ups on national television.
When La Russa presents the line up card to the home plate umpire before the game, the umpire will be embarrassed to tell La Russa that pitchers no longer hit in All Star Games. La Russa sees all his double switches go up in smoke and will have to rethink the eighth place in the NL line up.
At least one NL pitcher will make his only All Star Game appearances as a pinch runner.
Tony will mess with Ron Washington's mind by having a pitcher in the on deck circle. Washington will hastily make a pitching change and La Russa will cackle like a hyena.
If the game goes into extra innings, the game will have to be called because Tony will run out of players as Charlie Manuel refuses to let La Russa play Cliff Lee in left field.
Yadier Molina will catch the entire game.
Ryan Braun will be given the sign to sacrifice a runner to second. When Braun swings anyway, he'll deny seeing the sign.
Joey Votto will stew in the dugout after playing two innings while Lance Berkman plays the other seven.
Tony will intentionally walk Albert Pujols twice, Miguel Cabrera once.
Prince Fielder will not face a right-handed pitcher.
After Yu Darvish accidentally knocks down Jimmy Rollins with a pitch, La Russa will instruct his pitcher to knock down Derek Jeter. When the benches clear, La Russa will get in the pitcher's face and call him, "Yu Devil."
At least one squirrel will interrupt the game.

Hey, this will be one All Star Game we won't sleep through. Can't wait!

Betemit a Step in the Wrong Direction for O's

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 17:02:00 +0000

Wilson Betemit's bat is a mirage. There. Glad we cleared that up right in the first sentence. At least now you know the tone the rest of this piece will take. Oh, perhaps as a stopgap for a season, Betemit could be at least useful now and then. But two years with an option? Oh dear. That's not a good idea. Friends, there is a reason why the Orioles will be Betemit's seventh team in his now ten year career. He'll wear out the welcome mat before you can say, "Defense." His last name is one of the best oxymoron names in baseball. He most certainly isn't a better mitt. Is he even a betebat?

How does this signing make sense for the Orioles? The deal gives the Orioles two of the worst fielding third basemen in baseball in Betermit and Mark Reynolds. So which one plays third and which one is the designated hitter? Perhaps Reynolds can play first. But then you still have a lousy glove over at third. We'll concede that Mark Reynolds has some really good power and can give you a lot of homers. But the strikeouts choke his value. Betemit looks like a decent offensive player the last two seasons, but consider that his BABIP over the last two seasons have been .361 and .391 respectively. If Betemit hit line drives higher than the average hitter, you might accept that explanation. But his line drive percentage has been 14.8 and 19.3 in the last two seasons.

Wilson Betemit is one of those players that makes you scratch your head. How has his career lasted this long? There are four things you can do to have a long major league career:

Be a left-handed reliever
Be a utility infielder
Be a backup catcher
Actually be a good player

Betemit would fall under category number two. And yes, he can play multiple positions. But saying that, wouldn't you at least want that sort of player to be somewhat decent at doing so? Omar Vizquel he ain't. The Orioles, it seems, have been fooled by his offensive numbers the last couple of years. And granted, they look pretty good. His OPS+ the last two seasons have been 141 and 117. What's wrong with that? His OPS in high leverage situations last year was an astounding, .974. So he's a great clutch hitter, right? This writer maintains that it's a fluke. His career OPS in such high leverage situations is .794. Not bad, but it it includes last year and certainly makes last year look fluky.

Look, this writer knows that WAR isn't the be all and end all when considering players. But the stats show that Betemit is not good defensively, not good on the base paths and has compiled the grand total of 3.3 fWAR in his ten seasons and 3.7 bWAR. If you want to take a one year flier on such a player, that's okay. But a two year deal with a third year option? Are you crazy!? This Fan has been wrong before and will certainly be wrong again. But from this perch, the Orioles have to be out of their minds to make such a deal.

Say Me, Say You, Bobby Abreu

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 15:33:00 +0000

Despite rumors to the contrary last night on Twitter (And rumors went bananas last night), Bobby Abreu is still a member of the Angels and according to the wonderful website, MLB Depth Charts, Abreu is still penciled in to the Angels' starting line up as this seasons' Angels designated hitter. That could change, of course, with a trade or if the Angels decide to eat the last year of Abreu's contract. Abreu is now 37 years old and his presence along with the erstwhile, Vernon Wells, effectively blocks prospect Mike Trout from the starting line up and perhaps the opening day roster. Such is life for Bobby Abreu that his relative worth will be debated for the next couple of weeks. It won't be much different than the rest of his career.

There will come a time when Bobby Abreu retires. Perhaps it will be after this year when his contract ends. Perhaps not. But the end will come someday and when it does, there are sure to be wide discussions of his career. Some will point to his eye-popping career slash line: .293/.397/.481, good for a 129 OPS+ (according to baseball-reference.com). Those same supporters will point to Abreu's 393 stolen bases and 75 percent success rate. They could point out his 554 doubles, 58 triples and 1,412 runs scored.

But just as many will counterpoint that he only made two All Star teams in his sixteen years of play and was somewhat ineffective as an outfielder. Despite piling up great numbers with the Phillies, not many fans shed tears when he was traded to the Yankees in 2006. Nor were there many New York tears shed when that team let him walk away to the Angels after the 2008 season. And now there are grumpy Angels fans that Abreu is still a member of their team heading into 2012. It's not Abreu's fault that the Angels signed him to a contract that in hindsight was two years too long. Abreu certainly earned his keep in 2009 and 2010. But he didn't come close last year.

What makes perfect sense is that Bobby Abreu's nearest comp on baseball.reference.com is Bernie Williams. Both players had similar career numbers. Both were better offensive players than defensive players. And both cause a lot of heartburn among writers and fans as to their relative career value. Williams' defense cost him more WAR than Abreu's tally according to Fangraphs. But B-R has them much closer.

Bobby Abreu, if he remains with the Angels through the season, is not going to have a good PR season. And that's unfortunate. The Angels have painted themselves in a box with the atrocious Vernon Wells deal they took on by obtaining him from the Blue Jays. They have to play Wells to try somehow to justify what they will pay him the next couple of years. Abreu's on-base skills are much superior to Wells (in the understatement of the year). Since Wells has to play, if the Angels desire Abreu's on-base skills, he will be forever known to Angel fans as the guy who blocked Mike Trout (who everyone wants to see play in the big leagues).

And we can't leave Torii Hunter out of this discussion either. Hunter quietly (who ever talks about it?) has just as much of a dead contract as Wells. Hunter is going to make $18 million this season and there's no way he'll ever earn it. For those counting such things, that's $39 million committed to three guys who probably shouldn't be in the line up instead of Mike Trout. Hunter and Wells will play because of the money. Abreu becomes the expendable one and he might still be the better offensive player of the three. Abreu can't win no matter what he does. Either he's traded or cut, or he's reviled for blocking a prospect.

It's a fitting problem for a player that has caused so much debate in his career and will after it's over. Bobby Abreu might have been a superstar for two seasons. But he has been a very good player for his career. He is probably not a Hall of Fame player. But in a day and age of on-base mania, he's Exhibit A for how to do it.

Failure in Sports

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 12:50:00 +0000

Failure once again raised its hairy head in national sports. Both conference championships were decided by the failure of two players. Billy Cundiff yanked a chippy field goal left to end the Baltimore Ravens' season and just a few hours later, Kyle Williams fumbled a second punt--this one in overtime--which allowed the New York Giants to kick the game winning field goal. Ironically, the Giants' winning kick was the same distance as Cundiff's miss.

Failure is the dark side of sports. But failure is also the single element that defines sports. For every team that wins, another loses. On an individual level, the heroics of one man or woman is only possible by the failure of another. The recorded winner of the 500 metres speed skating even was Uwe-Jens Mey. But that race is much more known as the race Dan Jansen fell down just days after his sister had died. Jansen would fall again in the 1000 metres race.

The 1978 playoff game to settle the American League East champion pitted the New York Yankees against the Boston Red Sox on October 2, 1978 in Fenway Park. The game will forever be known for Bucky Dent's improbable three run homer. But everyone knows that pitch was thrown by Mike Torres who gets saddled by history as the failure of that game.

But he wasn't alone. The score was 5-4 heading into the bottom of the ninth. The usually reliable Goose Gossage had already given up two runs to tighten the game to its eventual score. And he was on the ropes again in the ninth. The Red Sox got two men on base but had two out. Hall of Fame player, Carl Yastrzemki came to the plate and could push the Red Sox to the post season with a hit. Yaz had already hit a homer and drove in another run with a single in the game accounting for two of the Red Sox' four runs. For Red Sox fans everywhere, Yaz failed them as he popped weakly to the foul side of third to end the game and the season for his team.

The defining poem of sports, Casey at the Bat, has its ultimate moment in the failure of Mighty Casey that sent the citizens of Mudville home unhappy. The resonance of the poem for generations was the failure. Yaz became Mighty Casey. Billy Buckner will forever be known for the Mookie Wilson grounder that went through his legs. Mitch Williams blew the save that gave Joe Carter glory and the Toronto Blue Jays their second straight World Series crown. Failure is more poignant than success and is remembered much longer. The most memorable hole of golf ever played will be Jean Van de Velde's 72nd hole in the 1999 British Open. Does anyone remember who actually won that tournament?

In no sport is failure more built into the sport than baseball. The best hitters fail sixty percent of the time. The best teams lose nearly forty percent. The best pitchers ever lost thirty percent of the time or more. And the game is only decided when the last three outs are made. Three failures end every game.

Kyle Williams and Billy Cundiff are to be pitied and not exploited. They aren't the firsts and they won't be the last. Before Cundiff, there was Gary Anderson, Scott Kaeding and of course, Scott Norwood. Yes, they failed. Someone had to do it.

Number 2,500

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 14:24:00 +0000

We Americans are a funny and stubborn people. We have this abject fascination with multiples of five or ten. That's why we fly in the face of world pressure to move to the metric system. It's also why it would take a major shift in our belief systems to move away from the dollar and go to some other form of world money. The love of fives and tens probably comes from our monetary system. When earning that daily one-hundred cents becomes so important, then it's only natural that all of our comfort level comes from five and ten. It's also why 493 homers is a bummer but 500 homers is terrific. It's why we celebrated Jim Thome and Derek Jeter in 2011. 3,000 and 600 just tickles us in all the right places.

And it's also why the last post (about Michael Morse) was number 2,499 on this site and this one is so much cooler because it's number 2,500. The writer here understands that it's an arbitrary number and yet it feels like a milestone. Two-thousand, five hundred posts. That's pretty sweet. Very few of them have been of the short variety like so many other blogs out there. This writer doesn't visit too many of those sites. If you are only going to give a paragraph or two to read, might as well go somewhere else. The posts here are rarely as long as a Joe Posnanski post, but then whose is?

This site started in 2003. The writer wrote a lot that first year and then just tinkered around for four years (life got busy) until becoming an obsession starting in 2009. Two-thousand, one-hundred and nineteen posts have come since the start of that year. It's weird going back to the beginning. The posts didn't even have headings. The first post was about David Wells. The second included immortal players like Tony Bautista, Pokey Reese and Brian Jordan. Well, Jordan was kind of cool. We've come a long way, baby.

It must have been in 2009 that the posts became mostly told in the third person. This author likes it that way. It's harder to pull off and most think it pretentious. But it goes back to journalistic underpinnings. Real journalists never wrote in the first person. Bloggers get such a bad rap and a lot of that is deserved. If we want to be taken seriously, then we need to consider ourselves as journalists first and fan-writers second. That doesn't mean that most of this writer's favorite blogs aren't written in the first person. They are. It's simply a personal choice.

A lot of gratification is taken by the growth of the site in the last year and a half. With a large circle of "friends" on Twitter and a positive association with Yardbarker, the amount of readers that have come this way is astounding. Of course, it doesn't hurt that the site is now 2,500 posts deep either. Just about every search word a baseball fan can type in Google has been covered here. Even so, it will always be a total surprise that so many people come here to read what this writer has to say. To be sure, there is much thanksgiving for those that do. So thank you.

There has been a lot of discussion on Twitter lately about "blogging" versus "writers." The issue seems to come to a head around credentials given by major league clubs. Different teams handle this new world uniquely. The Mets are very open to credentials while the Yankees are very closed. To this writer, the Yankees need to wake up and smell the coffee. Electronic writing is where reporting is going. Even beat writers and newspaper guys are bloggers. The world is a much smaller one and anybody who can type can be a star. Not that it will matter here. Credentials are not even a consideration when you write in a basement in Maine on the next to last stop on Route One before hitting Canada. The Montreal Expos used to be the closest team to this location. Boston is eight or nine hours away.

This writer's grand vision is to be scooped up by a major site. That's long been the goal. But if that doesn't happen, there will still be contentment with tens of thousands of readers each month and a topic that never gets old. Baseball is the greatest sport on earth and writing is so much fun every day. Whether looking back, or forward or at what is going on today, there is always something interesting to talk about. That's shared by the dozens of sites this author visits every day. It never gets stale.

So, yeah. 2,500. That's pretty cool. For some stupid reason, it's more cool than 2,499. Such fat round numbers cause us Americans to celebrate and look back. It's how we're wired. This Fan is no different. Thanks again for the sweet knowledge that you come here often and spend a little of your precious time. Hope we're all around to see 5,000 together.

The Cool Story of Michael Morse

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 12:59:00 +0000

Close your eyes if you will and picture Michael Morse in your head. Got it? Okay, does that look like a shortstop? No, right? But that's what he was drafted as way back in 2000 (third round by the White Sox) and that's where he played his first six years of his ten-year minor league career. The easiest thing to state in this entire piece will be that Michael Morse doesn't fit anywhere on the diamond. He was too big as a shortstop. He played some third base. He's played first. He's played in the outfield. In 2006, Morse got a cup of coffee with the Mariners. He played six different positions (if you include DH). There's no real way to hide him. But boy can he mash a baseball!

His story is fascinating. He comes from Fort Lauderdale, one of this writer's favorite places on earth. He played for the Davie, Florida high school team, one of the best Florida towns on earth. He was drafted by the White Sox, traded to the Mariners and traded to the Nationals straight up for Ryan Langerhans (how did that turn out, Seattle?). During his long wanderings around minor league baseball, he tore his labrum diving for a ball against the Angels. He tore a meniscus that cost him most of 2008. He was suspended for using PEDs. Seattle converted him away from short because they had Yuniesky Betancourt. Yeesh. And it's not like he tore it up in the minors. His lifetime slash line there was, .271/.330/.425. So where did this come from?

Oh sure, you can point to the PEDs and say that was it. But that was way back in 2005 and to be sure, his tests have been scrutinized ever since. So don't throw that accusation around. It seems that he came back with a vengeance after his lost 2008. He mashed the ball in the minors in 2009 and though he started slowly in 2010, the Nationals called him up May 16th of that year and he's been killing the ball for the Nationals ever since. He loses value with his defense and base running, but with the bat, he was terrific in 2011. He was tenth in ISO, fifteenth in wOBA, tenth in slugging, nineteenth in batting average, thirteenth in wPA and seventh in home run per fly ball percentage.

He was remarkably consistent in 2011. Morse had a .879 OPS at home and .937 on the road. He had an .886 OPS in the first half and went at a .935 clip in the second half. His OPS against left-handed pitchers was .892 and it was .915 against right-handed pitchers. He started slowly in April and finished slowly in September but was fantastic in all the in-between months. He ruined the Phillies' rotation to the tune of a 1.170 OPS. His OPS was over one against the Cardinals, Dodgers, Astros, Brewers and Rockies. Three of those teams were in the playoffs. Only nine of his thirty-one homers were pulled. Eighteen of them went to center and nine went to the opposite field. Sixty-seven of his 158 hits were for extra bases.

If there is any knock against Morse besides his fielding and base running, it has to be his plate discipline. He struck out 21.9 percent of the time (136 total) and walked only 6.3 percent of his plate appearances. He had only 31 non-intentional walks all season. But he does get hit by pitches regularly. He was hit thirteen times last season. He swung at 34.8 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. That's a lot. And that number is right in line with his career line, so it's not like he's going to change.

So where does he go from here? The Nationals just signed him to a two-year deal (avoiding arbitration) worth $10.5 million. Morse was worth $15.1 million last year alone, so that could be a steal. Three projection systems have him regressing slightly, but not by much. So projectionists are somewhat bullish on him being a force in the Nationals' line up for the future.

Michael Morse has hit 46 homers in his last 788 at bats. Home runs are back to being a premium commodity. The "Beast" has basically come out of nowhere at a later age than most. In a career that has a lot of twists and turns, it's hard to root against the guy. It will be very interesting to see if he can continue to be this good a hitter going forward. This Fan will be watching his boxscores in earnest.

Justin Masterson - The One That Got Away

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 17:34:00 +0000

The date was July 31, 2009 and it was the last day of that season's trade deadline. The Boston Red Sox needed a boost to help that season's playoff chances. And so on that deadline day, the Red Sox pulled the trigger on a deal with the Cleveland Indians for Victor Martinez. In return, the Red Sox sent Justin Masterson, Bryan Price and Nick Hagadone. Martinez performed admirably for the Red Sox and they did indeed make the playoffs but were swept in the first round by the Angels. Martinez had another good season for the Red Sox in 2010 but the Red Sox failed to make the playoffs. The Red Sox had little to show for their year and a half rental of Martinez and perhaps have given up one of the rising stars in the American League.

Justin Masterson had a much better 2011 season as the anchor in the Indians' rotation than most people realize. He finished with a 12-10 record for his 33 starts which is yet another reason why a pitcher's win-loss record is meaningless. According to Fangraphs' valuation methods, Masterson was tied for being the sixteenth most valuable pitcher last season. The guys he was tied with? Cole Hamels, James Shields and Daniel Hudson. That's pretty good company. Just think if Masterson had been in the Red Sox rotation last September when they sank faster than a leaky rowboat!

And the good news is that Masterson is only going to be 27 in 2012. He showed all the signs that he is going to be a star for the Cleveland Indians for years to come. Perhaps getting to learn on the job with the Indians over the past three seasons has allowed Masterson to reach his full potential. Seriously out of contention in 2009 and 2010 allowed the Indians to have patience with Masterson to give him room to grow. Those first two seasons weren't pretty as Masterson went 7-20 with a WHIP over 1.5. And the patience paid off beginning with the second half of the 2010 season. Despite his final record in 2010, Masterson cut his walks down in the second half of that season and he carried that even further into the 2011 season. His 2.7 walks per nine innings in 2011 along with an improved 2.43 strikeout to walk ratio were easily the best of his career.

But the good news doesn't stop there. Statistics show that Masterson's change up became a much better pitch in 2011 and now all three of his pitches are in the plus category. He only allowed eleven homers all season for a sparkling 0.5 homers per nine innings, again, the best of his career. Batters had a total OPS against him of .667 with a slugging percentage of .349. No matter how you judge pitching, he was terrific. If you like holding on to ERA, that was 3.21. If you prefer FIP, that was 3.28. xFIP? 3.64. SIERA? 3.68. tERA? 3.53. ERA+? 128. It's all good across the board.

Going deeper into Masterson's numbers, you have to love the way he gets batters to hit ground balls. His ground ball percentage of 55.1 percent in 2011 was just below his career average and for his career, he induces two ground balls for every fly ball he allows. Showing that Masterson is hard to square up, his lifetime line drive percentage sits at only 16.7 percent for his career. And he also increased the number of infield pop ups in 2011 pretty significantly (9.1 percent compared to a career rate of 6.4). Perhaps the real key to his success was that Masterson increased the contact rate on pitches out of the strike zone. His 70.7 percent contact rate on those pitches was up almost eight percentage points of his previous best season.

After all is said and done, so far all three projections for Justin Masterson for 2012 show a regression of his 2011 numbers. That's hard to understand. Perhaps that is a reflection of a ground ball pitcher pitching in front of a notoriously bad infield. Asdrubal Cabrera rated as the worst fielding (qualifying) shortstop last season. Jason Kipnis at second, came in with a -5.6 fielding runs. If Carlos Santana continues to play first as often as he catches, that won't help either. At least Lonnie Chisenhall over at third base seemed above average with his fielding stats last season.

Even so, it's this writer's opinion that Justin Masterson will not regress and that he'll continue to improve and will be one of the best pitchers in the American League in 2012. He shows all the signs of an emerging star and if this writer is correct, then he will continue to be the pitcher that got away for the Red Sox. And now that the same Victor Martinez is lost for the season for the rival Tigers, Masterson will have a lot to say about whether the Indians can compete in the AL Central this coming season. Oh, and by the way, Nick Hagadone has great stuff as a lefty reliever and might also be a big key for the Indians. It should be fun to watch.

BBA Link Fest - General Aviation

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 16:26:00 +0000

Our writers in the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance have taken flight for another week of terrific posts. Like we do every Thursday here in the FanDome, what follows are links to pieces around the country and around the world. Please be so kind as to click the links. Our writers would be much obliged. But more than that, you'll enjoy yourself on this wintry January day.

First up, we all want to congratulate Michael Clair on his Old Time Family Baseball "blogathon" this past weekend. Working for a great cause, Michael went the distance for 24 hours and then followed that up with some great guests posts from a whole slew of writers. Most importantly, the blogathon was a rousing success and Michael met his contribution goal. Thanks to everyone in helping make that possible. Apparently, Michael doesn't require sleep as even after his big weekend, he keeps churning out content like this.

Secondly, we have a brand new member this week! We'd like to welcome Justin Jabs and his Baseblog. Check out his recap of the past year in Tampa Bay Rays bobbleheads. Very cool.

Meanwhile, over at his X-Log site, Michael Cardano doesn't think Tim Lincecum is $6.5 million better than Cole Hamels. Agreed!

Scott Annis over at Through The Fence Baseball tells us why Pablo Sandoval's new contract is great for the Giants.

Hehehe. Sully over at Sully Baseball compares Yankee fans to the fans of the Twilight movie series. Oh, that Sully...

In a fantastic post, Replacement Level Baseball Blog gives us the All-Harmony Game in honor of Martin Luther King Day.

Bill over at The Platoon Advantage is back to being @Bill_TPA after roaming the earth as Saber Boy for a while. But he's still writing like a super hero. Here's his great piece on Jamie Moyer and links him back to Babe Ruth!

In somewhat a break in form, let's celebrate our friend, MTD, from Off Base Percentage who had a great guest post on the great Baseball Prospectus. Way to go, Mr. Lloyd!

Chris Papas of NumberOneBaseball takes us back to the beginning. Check it out.

Over at MLB Reports, Doug Booth has a cautionary tale for those considering Prince Fielder. Great post! The Fan wrote a post a long time ago but can't find it now that postured that big guys have at best eight good years in them.

Andrew Martin of MLB Dirt has a terrific article and interview with Anthony Ranaudo, the Boston Red Sox prospect.

In one of the Fan's favorite posts of the week, Left Field gives us the greatest leftfielders not in the Hall of Fame. Super!

If you love baseball trivia, you've got to check out Theo's latest quiz. Love these and also check out his work on retired numbers and help him pick the next team he should do over at Hot Corner Harbor.

A pitcher's daughter was on American Idol! The Hall of Very Good gives us all the details. Cool! And, golly, can that gal sing the National Anthem!

Grubby Glove is bored with Bud Selig and isn't celebrating Selig's recent extension by MLB.

Dee Clark's great prospect series on The Golden Sombrero has been terrific from beginning to now. But the latest one on Jesus Montero cut this Fan's heart in two. Sigh.

Curley Bender over at Crum-Bum Beat calls Kerry Wood the post-modern Mr. Cub. Great post and the spot on.

Our friends across the sea at MajorBaseball.fr comment on the Yu Darvish deal.

The Baseball Index has a great breakdown of the Seth Smith deal.

The OCP over at For Baseball Junkies gives us one of the best Montero-Pineda analysis this Fan has yet seen. Great job.

In another great post, Dugout 24 presents five myths about baseballs.

TheNaturalMevs of Diamond Hoggers doubts that 2K Sports can ever make a great baseball game.

In a timely piece, Mario Salvini of Che Palle! talks about Jackie Robinson.

The always terrific Blaine Blontz gives us the scoop on the latest Fidel-ity over at Call to the Pen. What is a Fidel-ity? You'll have to read this Fan's post on new baseball lingo. Heh. Shameless Self Plug there.

The Post of the Week this week goes to Baseballism for a great post on Paul O'Neill!

Ryan Sendek of Analysis Around the Horn has a great reply to another post on things the Pirates should be doing. Read both the original article and Ryan's response. Both are terrific.

And finally, the Fan leaves you with one terrific piece of note, this one on 85% Sports on Roy Halladay. Truly superb. And love the wordplay in the post's heading.

New Baseball Lingo

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 07:33:00 +0000

Over the years of writing in this space, posts have included outdated lingo ("can of corn") and cool lingo ("yakker"). But we really haven't added much in the way of new lingo over the years. Oh sure, there are the new statistical jargon such as WAR and wOBA. That's off the field stuff. What about on the field? This long-time Fan remembers when, "Big Fly" was relatively new (did Joe Morgan bring that to the table?). But what else has been added? How many others can you think of off the top of your head? This writer is coming up empty except perhaps, "concussion syndrome." Who wants that to be our centerpiece? Exactly.

With so little happening in the world of baseball lingo, perhaps we need to invent a few of our own. If we use a little imagination, we can freshen up the place a little bit. The easiest way to create new lingo is to base it on stuff certain players become known for. This can be a good thing or a bad thing. Take Daric Barton, for example. And after last season, the A's would probably let you have him. But he was pretty good in 2010. He led the majors in non-intentional walks, for example. But in the first half of 2010, Barton was inexplicably bunting every time he came up to bat with runners on base. He had ten by the end of the first half.

This writer doesn't know a whole lot about market inefficiencies that are the crux behind the whole Moneyball story, but bunting every at bat with a runner on base couldn't have been one of them. If this writer remembers correctly, his frustrated manager said that Barton was doing that "sacrificing" on his own. Barton must have gotten the message (and a few manager spikes up his butt) because he only had two sacrifice bunts the rest of the season. Derek Jeter has been known to do the same thing on occasion. But we'll leave Jeter out of this and use Barton for a new bit of lingo.

From now on, every time a batter bunts for a sacrifice on his own volition, we can name the action after Daric Barton. The Fan's first thought was to call it a "Bart On." That separates his last name to make it a lingo. But that doesn't have the right pizzazz to it. A player bunts and the play-by-play guy would say, "Why would he bunt there? He must have got his Bart On." Nah. Doesn't work. Perhaps the Fan is dating himself, but some time ago, there was a bombshell named Bo Derek in Hollywood. She was the featured actor along with Dudley Moore in the movie, Ten, since that's what she was. With that memory in mind, the Fan suggests that every time a batter bunts when he really shouldn't, we'll call it a "Bo Daric." Fan in the stands can watch a National League pitcher bunt with runners on first and second with one out and groan, "Oh man, not a Bo Daric!"

But our new lingo can be named after good things too. When a second baseman dives in the hole to make a great stop, we can call it an Alomar. But to make it cool, you'd have to stretch out the syllables like this: "AL-Oh-Mar!" We could call a triple a "Rollins." That would be cool. It's far sexier than calling it a "three-bagger."

What else can we come up with? This writer doesn't know about you, but, "Loogy" is fairly new jargon (hey, the Fan thought of one!) but to be frank, it's already gotten old. We have to name it after somebody. How about if we call Loogys, "Jaycees," instead? The name is in honor of J.C. Romero. But there could be better ones out there. Usage: "The Astros are going to bring their Jaycee in now to face Fielder."

Here is a list of a few more the Fan can think of. Add in your own suggestions in the comments. We can then create a poll of the submissions to see what should stick.

A Fidel-ity - A Cuban defector. It's got to be better than calling such a player, "defected," right?
Futilla - Bad hitting catcher. It's a combination of Futile and Butera. Or perhaps A Shoppage would be better in honor of last year's Bay Rays' catcher.
A Soriano - Any swinging strike on a slider way wide of the plate and in the dirt. Usage: "Oh man, Burnett got him to Soriano that thing." If you have any questions about this one, just watch the 2003 post season series between the Red Sox and the Yankees.
A Laffey - This replaces "Laugher" as the definition of a one-sided contest. Why? Because those are the only games Aaron Laffey pitches.
A Yu - Any Japanese post-er. Speaks for itself.
A Macoris - Any of the three dozen players that hail from San Pedro de Macoris in the Dominican Republic. It's just too much to say. Pronunciation: "Mack-or-eee." The fear here is that this would turn into, "macaroni" in no time.
A Hairball - Named after any Hairston, a family whose players are like cats because their careers have nine lives.
A Halladaze - Named after the Phillies' pitcher and used for any batter walking back to the dugout after a particularly baffling curve.
An Oxy - Any ballplayer whose name is an oxymoron such as Fielder, Outman, etc. Or it could be Angel Pagan, whose very name is an oxymoron.
Donkeyed - Any player who suddenly loses all ability to play the game. Named after Mr. Dunn of course. Usage: "He was a pretty good player before he donkeyed.."
An Albert - Any player who fails to run out a ground ball. Named after Pujols, of course."Geez, A-Rod pulled an Albert out there and trotted to first."
A Gardener - Any batter that looks at two fat strikes in a row to start an at bat. Named for Brett Gardner.
A Huffer - Any player signed to a stupid contract based on one surprising year. In honor of Aubrey Huff, of course.
Crawful - Any player signed to a big contract who fizzles with his new team. This comes courtesy of @soxanddawgs who used it all of 2011 for Carl Crawford. Could have been Werthless too.
An Ichiro - Singles.
A Yunick - Any Betancourt-type player you wish wasn't on your team.
Bronsoned - Any homer-prone pitcher that gives up a homer.

Those are the Fan's suggestions. Can you think of any more? Let's spice this thing up a bit!

***Update*** Just thought of another one: A Posey-do. Where a catcher ole's the runner at home to avoid a collision.

Yankees Should Extend Russell Martin

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 18:47:00 +0000

The arbitration deadline looms for the New York Yankees and Russell Martin. And if this writer was a betting man, the odds seem high that the team and its catcher are already in negotiations for a long-term deal. Now that the Yankees have determined the fate of Jesus Montero, there is no reason not to try to tie up Martin for the next three years. This will allow the team to bring Austin Romine along at a slower pace (back up catcher) and if that doesn't work out, Gary Sanchez--one of the team's best prospects--should be ready in two years.

All the latest research this author has found makes Russell Martin even more valuable than his valuation on Fangraphs.com ($13.8 million in 2011). Mike Fast's work at Baseball Prospectus on the value of framing pitches (and thus getting extra strikes), along with Bojan Kopravica's work at The Hardball Times on blocking pitches has allowed Kopravica to piggyback on Fast's work and come up with an adjusted value for catchers. From his work Martin's new WAR total would be 4.6 WAR instead of Fangraphs' 3.1. Such a study lifts Martin's true value to the Yankees last year at $20.47 million.

Obviously, you don't want to max out a contract equal to a player's actual worth. But a three year deal in the ball park of $35 million makes perfect sense. The Yankees have offered him $7 million in arbitration and Martin is asking for $8.5 million. Back load the deal so that it only costs the Yankees $8 million or so this year and the Yankees can tie up the sixth most valuable catcher in baseball for three years.

Martin's somewhat draggy offense in 2011 did dim his value. His offense was only worth about 1.9 wins in 2011. When the Fan downloaded Kopravic's spreadsheet and sorted the catchers by defensive value, Russell Martin was the second best defensive catcher in baseball last season. And most of that value is tied up in how well he frame's pitches and gets his pitchers extra strikes. That is exactly the kind of skill the Yankees need with their latest acquisitions on the pitching side of things.

Obviously, the Yankees are crying poverty right now. Translated, you can read that as being tired of being penalized for being so high in salary. But the team made a big splash to go out and get pitching. Wouldn't you want to back that up to get the second most valuable defensive catcher and the top-rated "framer" of pitches in the game? That's a no-brain decision on this end. Romine is loved by the Yankee brass for his defense. But let him learn for awhile behind Russell Martin, one of the best in the game.

If John Elway Played For the Yankees

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 15:10:00 +0000

The weekend was awash with playoff football as four games were played to decide which four teams would play for the league championships. One of the games on Saturday featured the New England Patriots at home against the Denver Broncos. That game, of course, held everyone's attention because of the match up between Tom Brady and Tim Tebow. Brady destroyed the Broncos and Tebow struggled. And during the game, mentions were made of John Elway, now a senior executive with the Broncos. Elway was once the hero of such Bronco playoff games as one of the top ten quarterbacks to play the game. With that fresh in the memory bank, Kevin Goldstein--a writer for Baseball Prospectus and ESPN and something of a Twitter hero--had the following tweet interaction:

That was all it took to fire the imagination and led to the investigation of what exactly Mr. Goldstein was talking about. This writer had vaguely remembered the power play that occurred when Elway was drafted by the then Baltimore Colts in 1983. But the details weren't remembered, nor was the baseball angle. Here is a brief recap of what occurred.

Elway, of course, was one of the most heralded quarterbacks in college football history. Playing his career at Stanford, he set several Pac-10 records for a team that never managed to make it to a bowl game. But still, Stanford played an NFL-like offense and Elway became the number one prospect in the draft. Meanwhile, he was also a terrific college baseball player at Stanford and despite the football angle, The Yankees took a flier on him and chose him at the end of the second round of the 1981 draft.

Naturally, Elway was selected with the first overall pick in the draft by the Baltimore Colts, a team he most decidedly did not want to join. The Colts were led by a head coach long forgotten by time named, Frank Kush. Kush was dreaded taskmaster for a team nobody wanted to join because of his hard-nosed reputation. Elway said there was no way he would play there. The Colts knew this ahead of time and still drafted him with the first pick.

Normally, this would have made Elway a villain of sorts in much the same way J.D. Drew became when he pulled the same scenario when he was drafted by the Phillies and refused to join them. But Elway's move pitted him against Robert Irsay, the unpopular owner many claimed had ruined the Colts in the early 80s. Irsay would go on to cement his bad name when he moved the beloved Colts out of Baltimore in 1984. Plus, Elway had all the leverage.

Elway could play baseball. As mentioned, the Yankees had drafted him in 1981 and Elway had a highly encouraging baseball start at Oneanta, the Yankees minor league outlet in the summer of 1982 (more on that later). Elway made it clear that if Irsay kept his football rights, he would play baseball. The ploy worked. Irsay caved and traded Elway to the Broncos for a quarterback, Mark Herrmann, rights to the Broncos' first round pick and a first round pick in the 1984 draft. The rest, of course, is history. John Elway became a superstar and Hall of Fame quarterback, author of the legendary "Drive" and two-time Super Bowl champion.

But what if Robert Irsay didn't cave? What if he had stuck to his guns? If Irsay called Elway's bluff, two things would have happened. Either Elway would have to cave and would have played for the Colts or he would have stayed and played baseball for the Yankees. History might have been very different for the Colts if Elway had played there. During the Ron Meyer years, the team was close to being playoff caliber with a running back named, Eric Dickerson. But they scored few points. Throw John Elway into that mix and the Colts could have been highly successful. But how would history be different if Elway has played for the Yankees?

Goldstein's comment found earlier in this post and the one record we have of Elway's minor league career are tantalizing. The record shows that he batted left and threw right and played 41 games for Oneanta. His slash line was, .318/.432/.464. The 41 games hint that John Elway was already an accomplished baseball player with excellent plate discipline. He only struck out 16.5 percent of the time and walked at a rate of 15.1 percent. He was an excellent base runner and stole thirteen bases in just sixteen attempts. Plus, he seemed to be a terrific right fielder. He made 69 putouts in 71 attempts (89.9 percent) and the arm that made him a quarterback was on display in the outfield where he made eight assists in just those 41 games. He didn't make a single error.

Surely, the Yankees, with George Steinbrenner at the helm, would have realized the marquee value they had in John Elway. Elway was one of the most recognizable athletes of his day. He was already 22 years old by his 1981 minor league season and many considered college baseball like the minor leagues. The Yankees would have fast-tracked him and certainly, he could have been in the majors by 1984. How would that have changed the Yankees? After titles in 1977 and 1978 and though the team made the World Series in the strike-shortened 1981 season, they famously then went zero for the 1980s and a long drought occurred until the 1996 team.

Would John Elway have made a difference? Elway didn't show much power at Oneanta, but as he matured, surely that would have come, especially as a left-handed batter at Yankee Stadium. He already had all the other tools to succeed in plate discipline, base running (he wouldn't have ruined his knees in baseball) and defense. He easily could have been a .300/.400/.500 player with positive value on the bases and in the field.

The Yankees had some bad teams in the 1980s, but were in the mix in 1985 and 1986 (the Lou Piniella years). In 1985, the Yankees won 97 games and finished just two back of the Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankee outfield consisted of Dave Winfield, Rickey Henderson and Ken Griffey (Sr.). Griffey was on the downhill slide but was still a pretty good player, but he platooned with Billy Sample. Elway could have possibly been a two-win better player than the combination of those two. Two wins would have been enough to catch the Blue Jays.

In 1986, the Yankees were an outfielder short of being a great team. Henderson slid a little that season, but Dave Winfield was still productive. But the third outfield position was a wasteland filled with the likes of Danny Pasqua, Gary Roenicke, Claudell Washington and Henry Cotto. Griffey had been traded after 59 games to the Braves. The 1986 Yankees finished five games behind the Boston Red Sox, who would go on to the Bill Buckner World Series. Could John Elway have made a difference? Certainly.

The Yankees fell on hard times after 1986. They went a few years with their best players being guys like Steve Sax, Roberto Kelly and Scott Sanderson. It's not hard to imagine that John Elway would have been a star during those years and the Yankees' WAR leader board during those years would be different. Elway would have still been playing in 1993 and 1994. The Yankees finished well back of the Blue Jays in 1993, so Elway couldn't have made that difference himself. And there was no wild card back then. But you'd like to think he would have been a better outfield option than Dion James and Hensley Meulens. The Yankees came in first place in 1994, but the strike ended that season and no post season was the sorry result.

Speculations lead down another path too. What if the Yankees hadn't drafted Elway? Selections in that draft after Elway included such guys as a young David Cone and Tony Gwynn. How would history have changed in the Yankees had drafted one of those guys instead? Well, that will have to be another article for another time.

According to Kevin Goldstein, John Elway could have been a superstar. While the 1980s were George Steinbrenner at his worst and most manic, Elway could have brought the Yankees at least one title and maybe two if he had been a Yankee. He could have been a perennial All Star. As a baseball player, it's not hard to imagine him as a Larry Walker kind of player. But it was not to be. John Elway made his name in football as the quarterback for the Denver Broncos. History is what it is. But just imagine if John Elway had been a baseball player! The thought is tasty to ponder.

Sources:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2776891

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Elway

Players to Celebrate in 2012: Omar Vizquel

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 15:39:00 +0000

This is the fourth part in a series of celebrating long-time players who we might see for the last time in 2012. This post and the one before on Pudge Rodriguez are difficult because the players in question have yet to sign deals for the 2012 season. The first three in the series also focused on what this writer figures to be Hall of Fame careers. Adding Omar Vizquel to this series runs into two problems then. First, we don't know if he'll get a job in 2012, and secondly, his career really doesn't seem like a Hall of Fame career. So why include Vizquel then?

For one thing, Omar Vizquel has been around forever. His career started six years before Jeter's. In Omar Vizquel's first season, Junior Griffey was nineteen years old, Edgar Martinez was not yet an every day player and Randy Johnson was not yet a full-time starting pitcher. Omar Vizquel was born in the 1960s. And he played his twenty-third season in Major League Baseball in 2011 at the age of 44.

But there is more to celebrate with Vizquel than just the fact that he's hung around forever. He is arguably the best fielding shortstop of his generation. Vizquel is third all time in shortstop assists. And, if you don't count Troy Tulowitzki--who has just begun his major league journey--Omar Vizquel has the highest fielding percentage of any shortstop in history. If you consider fielding percentage to have any value at all, Vizquel has had four of the top ten shortstop fielding seasons in that category. He also has a 22nd, a 26th, a 28th and so on. He has played more games at shortstop than any player in history.

But maybe defensive percentage is not your cup of tea. It's a statistic that has fallen out of favor in recent seasons. Baseball-reference.com rates Vizquel with the fourth highest shortstop in total zone runs of all time. The three ahead of him are Ozzie, Belanger, Ripken and Aparicio. Yes, those guys were pretty good.

Here's kind of a mind-boggling thing. Both Fangraphs and B-R rate Vizquel's 2007 season as his best season defensively. According to Fangraphs, he was 23 runs above average that season. B-R has him at 23 as well. Vizquel was 40 years old at the time. Oddly enough, that was the first year in a long time that he didn't win a Gold Glove. He won thirteen of those awards before that. 2007 was also his last season as a shortstop in a full season.

This writer's recollection of him was as a shortstop diving all over the place getting to balls one thought were by him, hopping up and making a lollipop throw to first to just barely get the runner. Vizquel never had a cannon for an arm. In fact it was more of the opposite. But he had a quick release and he was deadly accurate.

The thing that will keep Vizquel out of the Hall of Fame was his offense. In his twenty-three seasons in the majors, his OPS+ was only twice over 100. And he had only four other seasons where it was in the nineties. His career OPS+ sits at 82. He has a career OPS of .690. He's never lead the league in any offensive category except for sacrifice bunts (four times).

He was a throwback kind of shortstop to the era when shortstops were played because of their defense and not their offense. Earl Weaver would have loved him. But there are two things you have to love about Omar Vizquel's career. First, you could absolutely tell that he loved to play baseball. When he made a great play, his smile told you that he relished such moments. There was joy in his game. He never lost his little-boy thrill of playing baseball and you could see it. You don't hang around twenty-three years and long after you're a regular player without that. Lastly, Omar Vizquel made the very most out of his meager baseball skills. He was never a great or even a good hitter. But at least he made himself not to be an easy out. He had no arm and yet he's one of the great shortstops of this or any generation. And in a game where players are six foot, two inches tall or taller, he was, "Little O."

Just to leave you a taste of what this writer saw watching Omar Vizquel do during his career, we leave you with a patented Omar play, recorded when Vizquel was 43 years old. Imagine how good he was when he was in his prime. Yeah, he could pick it alright.

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Domonic Brown Ready for Duty

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 17:44:00 +0000

Twitter exploded last night with the big news of the deal between the Yankees and Mariners. It kept on going with the news the Yankees had also signed Karaoke Kuroda. Such news would provide the easiest route to creating a blog post. But, geez, there have already been a million posts on the topic already. What can be said that Dave Cameron, Brien Jackson and Buster Olney haven't already written? This writer's take in a nutshell is that the Yankees performed a masterstroke for their rotation which should already improve what was a 92-win team. However, Montero is a special talent and that may hurt for a long time. Thinking about a prospect like Montero led to thoughts of another "can't miss" prospect that has had trouble getting started in the big leagues: Domonic Brown of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Brown was only a 20th Round draft pick (2006) so he sort of came out of nowhere. But since that time, he's landed on Baseball America's top fifty prospect for the last three seasons. Each year on the list came lower and lower until he was ninth on the list before the 2011 season. But Brown's start to his major league career have been bumpy.

That beginning began at the end of July in 2010. Domonic Brown made his debut on July 28, 2010 against Edwin Jackson and the Arizona Diamondbacks in Arizona. Brown went two for four with a double and two RBIs in his first game. Nice debut! He was a late replacement in the next game and went hitless in one at bat. The following day, he went two for four and after three games was hitting .500. Let the fun begin! Except it didn't.

Brown played fairly consistently the rest of the season but he looked more and more lost. By the end of 2010, in 35 games, Brown finished with a slash line of, .210/.257/.355. Ugh. That wasn't what the Phillies were expecting. The Phillies did keep Brown on the post season roster but he only got into a couple of games and was zero for three in the post season. What was doubly disturbing about Brown's performance was that he struck out 35 percent of the time. The whispers were that he was totally lost at the plate and pitchers had found flaws in his approach and were exposing them. The strikeouts and lack of walks were totally uncharacteristic of Brown's minor league statistics where he was seen to be a patient hitter who made consistent contact.

Brown didn't make his 2011 debut for the Phillies until May 21 and after his first ten games was batting .333. And Brown played regularly through June and into July. But by the end of the month of July, his average was down to .246 and the Phillies made a big push for playoffs by acquiring Hunter Pence from the Astros. Pence took over Brown's spot and Domonic Brown was sent to Triple A where he finished the season except for a brief couple of games at the end of September.

So why would such a middling campaign of 2011 be interesting for Domonic Brown? First, his high strikeout rate disappeared. After fanning 35 percent of the time in 2010, he cut that down to 16.7 percent in 2011. The lower rate was a result of more discipline at the plate where he brought his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone down from 30.8 percent in 2010 to 28.9 percent in 2011. Plus, his swinging strike rate went down from 13.5 percent in 2010 to 7.7 percent in 2011. Combine all that to improving his walk rate from 7.1 percent in 2010 to 11.9 percent in 2011 and it seems to show a young hitter much more comfortable in his approach and putting up numbers much closer to his minor league performance. The other promising sign from Brown's 2011 season was that he fared very well against left-handed pitching (he bats left-handed).

But he still only hit .246. That might be a reflection of his .274 BABIP which almost certainly will improve in 2012. And that's where we are now. The Phillies have (it appears) finally gotten over their absurd love affair with Raul Ibanez. Ibanez had some big hits for the Phillies at opportune times, but overall, he was a drag on the Phillies' offense and an millstone to the team's defense. The negative fielding metrics for Ibanez were nearly historic in 2011. Domonic Brown hasn't shown a whole lot defensively either, but he has to be better than Ibanez.

So what should we expect in 2012? Shane Victorino will play center and Hunter Pence will be in the line up all year. That would seem to open up the third outfield position to Domonic Brown. And projections from Bill James believe Brown will respond and have a fine season. Other projections such as Fans and RotoChamp aren't so sure. James believes Brown will be an every day player where the other two only predict 300 plate appearances or so.

And that's the rub here. The Phillies seem slow to believe in Domonic Brown as a full time option. Yes, he's been their most talked about prospect, but the Phillies don't act like they are sure he's the real deal. From this writer's perspective, the Phillies really should give Domonic Brown a full time shot and see what happens. If he blossoms, then all the better. If he fails to shine, then at least they will know and can make other plans. Domonic Brown looks like a great player and needs to be given a full opportunity to show what he can do.

Players to Celebrate in 2012: Ivan Rodriguez

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 17:26:00 +0000

This is the fourth segment in a series on players we've watched for a long, long time who we might get to enjoy in 2012 for the last time. In the first three segments, the players covered have a definite home in 2012 and can count on playing time. The fourth player in our series is still a free agent, he's still unsigned and it's not guaranteed that he'll catch on with a team in 2012. His name is Ivan Rodriguez.

If you put two serious baseball fans in the same room and told them they had to argue the merits of Ivan Rodriguez's career, the two would have a lot to talk about. And one would probably sound a lot like Fred Flintstone with a lot of "yeahbuts" thrown in the conversation. Rodriguez does that to people. You are either wildly impressed by his career or thrown cold by certain aspects of it. Here's a sample of how that conversation might go:

Fan1: Ivan Rodriguez is the only catcher (80% at that position) in history with more 500 doubles for his career!
Fan2: Yeahbut, he's also the only player in history who has more than 500 doubles that has more career doubles than walks.
Fan1: Seriously? Well of all catchers who have ever played, I-Rod has 500 more hits than the nearest guy.
Fan2: Yeahbut, he's played the last six years without being a league average hitter.

And on and on it would go. There are three things that cloud the career of Ivan Rodriguez. First, he has played long past his prime. Many would argue that he should have retired five years ago. Second, the catcher's allergy to taking walks have lead to some very famous numbers. Lastly, he's been implicated in the great PED debate. Let's talk a bit about all three.

First, when a player retires should be based on the market and on the player's desire to play. Many will say that Willie Mays hung on too long. Many will say that Greg Maddux hung around too long. To those arguments, this Fan says, "Bull." Baseball players have been playing the game since they were little boys. It's all they have ever known. If their enjoyment for the game far outstrips their ability and teams are willing to pay the player to do what they still love to do, then who are we to tell that player he shouldn't play? But what if they are just hanging on for the paycheck? Well, geez, does that make them any different from those of us who stay at our jobs long enough to collect our retirement? Why the double standard?

Plus, there is a value/payment proposition involved here. As long as the team doesn't pay the player too much money and the player adds some value to the team, why is there a problem? If you go to Willie Mays' B-R page, look at his Player Value section. Are there any negative WAR numbers for Willie Mays? Nope, not a single one. Are there any negative WAR numbers next to Greg Maddux's Player Value section? Nope. The same holds true for Ivan Rodriguez. He has provided value in every one of his seasons.

Our problem is that we want our superstars to only keep playing as long as they are superstars. As soon as they are physically unable to perform at their previously high level, we want them to get out of there. Jason Giambi is 41 and is still playing long past his prime. Many fans hate that. Why should they? The guy is enjoying himself and getting paid. Why shouldn't he?

The walk issue for Ivan Rodriguez is a problem we can't talk around. It's certainly a fact well documented. He does have more doubles than walks for his career. His 2007 season was record breaking. It is the only documented season ever where a catcher had more than 500 plate appearances and less than ten walks. The only other position player to have less walks in a season with more than 500 plate appearances since 1949 to have less walks than I-Rod that season was Shawon Dunston who famously only had eight walks in 1997. So yes, this writer will grant that Ivan Rodriguez didn't like to take a walk.

As for the last argument against Ivan Rodriguez that he was implicated (by Jose Canseco) as a user of PEDs, you already know that this writer doesn't care. He certainly wasn't alone. You can all have your fun if you want and poke holes and call him a cheater if you want. Not this guy.

As most of you know, value also comes from other places than hitting. There is also base running and fielding. Base running is something that has only been calculated since 2002. Ivan Rodriguez had already been catching and squatting for eleven years to that point. That he's only cited by Fangraphs as a -3.8 runs in base running since that time isn't half bad for a guy who has been getting into the crouch that long. But fielding? That's another story entirely.

According to Fangraphs, nobody has saved as many runs defensively as a catcher than Ivan Rodriguez. According to that site, he has saved 159 runs for his career. The closest to him is Jim Sundberg at 115. Baseball-reference agrees, giving Rodriguezz 167 runs saved for his career to Sundberg's 114. Rodriguez has the most assists of any catcher since 1961. Of all modern catchers, he has the highest career caught stealing rate which sits currently at 45.68. His only modern rival is Yadier Molina who sits at 44 percent. Even at the age of 39, Ivan Rodriguez threw out 52 percent of those that tried to steal against him. It was the ninth time in his career that his percentage was over 50 percent.

Mike Fast's work on how effective catchers are at getting strikes for their pitchers covered the years when Ivan Rodriguez was between the ages of 36 to 39. And even so, Fast rated Rodriguez above average in that category. An earlier study on the subject by Dan Turkenkopf rated Rodriguez even higher.

Plus, Ivan Rodriguez has been just fine at limiting passed balls over his career. All facets of his defense lead this writer to believe that Ivan Rodriguez was the elite defensive catcher of his generation. Add that to his offense, which up until six years ago, was among the best at his position, and you have what this writer believes is a Hall of Fame career. He was the lead catcher for two World Series champions, his arm was a cannon (and still is) and he's always been great fun to watch.

We don't know if Ivan Rodriguez will find a job in 2012. If he does, celebrate his career. There have been few we've seen better at his position. This writer will celebrate him, warts and all.

BBA Link Fest - Generally Giving

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 18:10:00 +0000

Welcome to another week of links from around the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. What follows are some of the best baseball writers around the country and the world. Plus, we have a very special event taking place this weekend that you really need to know about. So please be a good egg and gives some of these links a click and some comments. You won't be sorry you did.

- We start with a very special event happening this weekend. Old Time Family Baseball will host a "blogathon" to raise money for Doctors Without Borders. The event has received national recognition (see here) and as that link indicates, there will be at least one big name that participates. As this is a terrific organization being supported, please stop by this weekend and do what you can to help. And just so you don't think the site has been sitting around waiting for the weekend, here's one of their current posts. It's hot.

- Another one of our General Chapter sites has received national attention of a different sort. The Platoon Advantage lost their Sweet Spot affiliation with ESPN.com because they tell and spoof the truth. The same day that was announced, Bill, questioned a BBWAA member and got called, "Saber-Boy." So Bill became Saber-Boy and gained more followers than anything the site ever garnered at ESPN. What a mixed up world, eh?

- It's hard to follow acts like that. But on we go. 85% Sports reports on some interesting comments by Barry Larkin on suspected PED users and the Hall of Fame.

- Analysis Around the Horn analyses (hey, that's what they do) fantasy draft results from several different sites. By the way, this Fan voted for Mechanical Brains as a preference for AATH's fantasy league name.

- Sooze at Babes Love Baseball thinks the Ozzie and Zambrano show should be reality television. The Fan would watch that. It would be more entertaining than that baseball wives travesty.

- Probably this Fan's favorite read this week is this excellent post by Stevo-sama over at The Baseball Enthusiast. It concerns what everyone calls, "The Ryne Sandberg Game," but the post is oh, so much more than a memory.

- Baseballism reports on and celebrates the election of Barry Larkin to baseball's Hall of Fame. The Fan adds his congratulations here as well.

- Aaron has a great read over at Blogging From the Bleachers on how the San Diego Padres are slowly revitalizing their team. Great stuff.

- Call to the Pen loves the deal the Giants just game Ryan Vogelsong. Couldn't agree more.

- Our Italian site, Che Palle! celebrates forty years of Sal. Who is Sal? You'll just have to click the link and read the entertaining post to find out.

- Matt Whitener of Cheap.Seats.Please took a stab at his own "ballot" of Hall of Fame votes and wrote a very good piece supporting his picks.

- It would truly be a surprise if Diamond Hoggers didn't celebrate Barry Larkins vote into the Hall of Fame. So this Fan looked forward to their post. It was not a disappointment.

- Dugout 24, our German entry, has some thoughts on the news that Jorge Posada is hanging up his spikes.

- For Baseball Junkies also reflects on Jorge Posada's career and this Fan pretty much agrees with their conclusions.

- Projecting a team's line up in the coming season is always a fun idea and The Baseball Index runs with the idea for the Toronto Blue Jays.

- Going Yard has some very interesting thoughts about what the Brewers will do if Ryan Braun is suspended. Great read.

- Golden Sombrero continues its excellent prospect series, so you are all encouraged to read that. But this week's link for them is one of this Fan's favorite site features, the lookalikes. This one features Mike Quade with fun results.

- Love, love, love Grubby Glove's "What's Wrong With This Card" series. Last week, we gave you the puzzle. This week, the puzzle is solved.

- Curley Bender of the Crum-Bum Beat builds the case for Edgar Martinez for the Hall of Fame. Couldn't agree more.

- Our French friends at MajorBaseball.fr contemplate Manny Ramirez's return to baseball.

- A Tyler Beede rap? Who would imagine such a thing from the only first round draft pick not to sign. The Hall of Very Good fills us in with style.

- In a terrific post by Theo over at Hot Corner Harbor, he compares the BBA Hall of Fame voting with the BBWAA. Yes, we are way smarter.

- The Fan's good buddy over at Left Field continues to write great posts no matter what he is writing about. This week, he ties some of his favorite music for 2012 to some of those artist's favorite baseball team.

- MLB Dirt has so much great content, it's really difficult from week to week to pick a favorite. Between Jonathan's superb prospect series and Andrew Martin's terrific interviews and that other guy from Maine who writes over there, how to choose? This week, the Fan is going with Mike Schwartze's prospect pitching duos because the Fan really liked that one.

- What is WAR all about? And how is the statistic useful? Look no further than this terrific article on the subject over at MLB Reports.

- J-Doug over at Rational Pastime gives us that site's picks for the Hall of Fame. Great stuff!

- It really bugs a writer at the Replacement Level Baseball Blog that no player has ever received a 100 percent vote for the Hall of Fame. So the writer gives us thoughts on which players should have been unanimous. The Fan picks this post as the best post of the Generals this week.

- The consistently entertaining Sully of Sully Baseball has ten thoughts on the recent Hall of Fame vote. Terrific read.

- In another candidate for the best post of the week, Logan Lietz of Through the Fence Baseball explains Theo Epstein's real value to the Cubs.

Thank you again for supporting our sites. We certainly appreciate you, our readers. And please, stop by Old Time Family Baseball on Saturday and support a great cause (and view some terrific blog posts!). Have a great weekend, everyone.

Players to Celebrate in 2012: Todd Helton

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 16:23:00 +0000

This is the third part of a series celebrating players we have enjoyed watching for many years who we might be seeing for the last time in 2012. Today we celebrate Todd Helton. Helton actually has a contract that runs through 2013, but the Colorado icon is 38 and the contract was front loaded and he wouldn't be leaving a large sum of money on the table to walk away after this coming season. In light of his physical struggles the past few seasons, it's not out of the range of possibilities that 2012 could be Helton's swan song.

Placing Todd Helton's career in historical context is difficult for the same reason it has been to do so for Larry Walker. Helton has played his entire career for the Rockies and Coors Field is about as bad a stigma to baseball writers as PEDs seem to be. To this writer, judging Helton's numbers due to his home ballpark would be a large mistake. After all, Helton has a career on-base percentage of .421. Thin air does not aid taking a walk. Even if you took away his massive amount of intentional walks (183), Helton would still have an on-base percentage over .400 for his career.

What is often forgotten concerning Rockies' players is that despite playing half of their games at Coors, a large part of their road travels take them to tough hitters parks in San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco. Todd Helton has played 1,039 games at Coors but has also played 333 games at those three sights. While that totally doesn't alter perceptions for his career splits from a home/road perspective, it certainly makes it somewhat understandable. And Helton's .869 career road OPS is nothing to sneeze at. That's a very good number. Yes, the home stats are incredible, but we can't say he was nothing on the road.

Helton's back problems have sapped his power in recent seasons. He hasn't slugged .500 since 2005. But he continues to hit and four of the six seasons since 2005 have been over .300. Plus, only one of those six seasons saw his OBP drop below .385. We all want first basemen who hit a lot of homers. Helton isn't that player anymore. His loss of power is similar to that of Don Mattingly who also struggled with back problems. But unlike Mattingly, Helton had a peak longer than Mattingly's but has managed to be quietly effective for a longer period beyond the peak.

And what a peak it was. Between 1999 and 2005, his OPS figures were in order: .981, 1.162, 1.116, 1.006, 1.088, 1.088 and .979. Between 2000 and 2005, his OBP was never lower than .429 and his batting average was never lower than .329. Between 1999 and 2005, Helton averaged 34 homers a season and 48 doubles! During those six seasons, Helton scored 741 runs and knocked in 807! Those were amazing seasons. Helton's teams were never very good through those years. But despite that, between 2000 and 2005, Helton had three top ten finishes in MVP voting and top twenty finishes in the other two seasons. He also won three Gold Gloves Awards and four Silver Slugger Awards.

Throughout his career, Todd Helton has also been a very good fielding first baseman. Baseball-reference.com gives Helton 9.8 dWAR for his career and Fangraphs gives him 56.7 runs above average for his career in the field. Add his defense on top of a great offensive career and you have had a treat of a career. It's hard not to like that Helton has struck out more than two hundred times less in his career than he's walked and Coors or no Coors, a lifetime slash line of .323/.421/.550 cannot be dismissed lightly. OPS+ takes into account park effects and Helton still comes out with a 136 OPS+ for his career.

Helton has been a class act and a graceful performer. Celebrate his career in 2012. It might be your last chance to do so.

Kevin Youkilis - Brittle?

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 14:19:00 +0000

Last night and this morning, yours truly had a short conversation with Chris McBrien of the terrific Dear Mr. Fantasy website and Chip Buck, the creative contributor for the awesome Fire Brand of the American League and it was astounding that Chris from a fantasy perspective and Chip from a Red Sox team-based site had little faith that Kevin Youkilis will play 100 or more games in 2012. The conversation proved just how fickle the game of baseball can be. Youkilis, a major player in the 2007 championship run, a featured story of Moneyball and a guy just recently named one of the top fifty players (35th) active in baseball has now become an afterthought.

It is easy to understand Chris McBrien's stance. It's part of his job for his readers to assess fantasy baseball risk on players. This Fan doesn't play fantasy baseball and so there is no expertise in that area. But to think that you wouldn't want to touch Kevin Youkilis with one of your picks in that world just blows the mind. According to Fangraphs, despite only playing 222 games the past two seasons, Youkilis has still achieved a value of just over $33 million with his play. Despite only 120 games played in 2011, Youkilis still hit 32 doubles, 18 homers and drove in 80. The guy is a stud, isn't he? His batting average did dip inexplicably to .258 in 2011, but he still got on base a little more than 37 percent of the time.

It's also easy to understand Chip's point of view. He called Youkilis, "brittle," and despite emotional objections to that word, the facts bear it out. Since Youkilis became a fixture on the Red Sox in 2006, he's never played 150 games in a season. Seeing that in his player card was a total surprise. Kevin Youkilis has never played a full season. His 147 games played in 2006 were his tops in that category. Well, holy A-Rod! Who knew? Does that make Youkilis the current incarnation of John Valentin? Valentin was another on-base machine for the Red Sox in the 1990s who couldn't find a way to stay healthy. His career was basically over by age 32. Youkilis will be 33 in March.

There have been reports that the Red Sox were considering trading Youkilis for pitching or other needs. Looking at the value proposition of such a deal, the pitcher better be pretty darned good for that to happen. As mentioned earlier, Youkilis, as a part-time player the last couple of years has been worth over $16 million a season and has a very reasonable contract that pays him around $13 million. That contract does run out after 2012 (with an option for 2013), so perhaps that factors into such a strategy.

Kevin Youkilis is not as good a third baseman as he was a first baseman. But saying so discounts how few real options there are in the majors for third basemen out there. Even playing 120 games, Youkilis was the third most valuable third baseman in baseball last season. It seems to this author at least that 120 games of Youkilis at third would be a better option than 160 games from anyone else not named Adrian Beltre (why the heck didn't the Red Sox re-sign that guy?) and Evan Longoria.

There is one other statement this author would like to make concerning Youkilis: His .944 OPS in the post season and the way he grinds at bats, there are few other batters a contending team would rather face in big situations than Kevin Youkilis. This Fan has never really liked the guy, but there is a lot of respect for him as a batter. If the impossible happens and Youkilis can stay on the field for 140 or more games, that can only be a benefit for the Red Sox. Yes, folks, that was an understatement. To this observer, Kevin Youkilis is a big key to the team's success in 2012. And yeah, if the Fan played fantasy baseball, Youkilis would be grabbed in the first round if those two other guys weren't available.

Players to Celebrate in 2012: Mariano Rivera

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 13:23:00 +0000

The 2012 season may be the last for some of the best players of this generation. Yesterday we focused on Chipper Jones in the first part of a series celebrating these players. Jones has a contract possibility of playing in 2013, but it seems likely that this will be his swan song. Mariano Rivera of the New York Yankees is another player who we could be seeing for the last time. Despite seeming ageless and continuing his dominant pitching even at the age of 41, his current contract runs out after this season and the gut feeling here is that this will be it.

And it seems astounding to actually type that. He's been such a fixture for so long that it's hard to imagine Major League Baseball without him. Love or hate the Yankees, everyone respects Rivera. Despite the bad rep "closers" have an the analytic community, all number-crunching writers have nothing but positive things to say about the Sandman. He is the exception to the antipathy of the save rule. To some, he is the number one reason the Yankees won five titles since 1996. To others, he's just a great player in a great situation. Despite which side of the fence you sit, no one will say that Mariano Rivera doesn't have a spot guaranteed for him in Cooperstown.

Let's forget about the save record for a moment. Very few people like that statistic. This writer doesn't happen to be one of them, but understands the displeasure others have for the save. So this post will only this one time mention Rivera as the all time save leader. He also holds the record for games finished. But if you'd rather have another statistic rather than the save, consider that since he started in 1995, Rivera has the highest WPA of ALL pitchers (starter or reliever). And since 1961, only Roger Clemens has a higher WPA. That Rivera, a "closer" has the second highest WPA in the last fifty years has been remarkable.

A relatively new measurement is the weighted pitch value. We can now rate pitchers fastballs, cutters, curves, sliders, split-fingered, change ups and knuckle balls. While the statistic only goes back to 2002, since that time, Mariano Rivera's cutter has been the fifth most valuable pitch in baseball behind only Roy Oswalt's fastball, Randy Johnson's slider, Johan Santana's change up and Roy Halladay's curve. You'll notice all those guys are starters.

Mariano Rivera has faced 4,814 batters in his career. They have a combined batting average of .210, an on-base percentage of .262 and a slugging percentage of .290. Right-handed batters have a career OPS against him of .583. Left-handed batters have an OPS against him of .522. In his last 404.2 innings pitched, he's walked a total of 60 batters. He walked only six batters in all of 2008 and only eight batters in all of 2011 (two were intentional). Rivera's home run per nine inning rate for his career is 0.48.

Rivera has had a season ERA under 2.00 in eleven of his seventeen seasons. In five seasons, his FIP has been under 2.30. His career SIERA is 2.58.

It didn't matter where Mariano Rivera pitched. His ERA at home is 2.48. His ERA on the road is 1.99. His OPS against in day games is .571. In night games, it's .540. In domes, it's a surreal .464. It also didn't matter what part of the season you faced him. There isn't a single month of the season when his OPS against was over .600 in his career.

In nine of Rivera's seventeen seasons, his WHIP has been under one. He has a streak going of four straight such seasons. His career WHIP is 0.998. People always associate Mariano Rivera for save situations. But he's actually pitched 327 times when there wasn't a save situation. In those games, Rivera is 54-32, a .628 win percentage. And he's compiled an ERA of 2.35 in such situations. His OPS against in non-save situations is .567. Rivera didn't just close out wins the Yankees needed, he also won games at the end of the game. He's been a multipurpose weapon.

And we haven't even covered his post season records. In the biggest games of all, he has a 0.70 ERA with 42 saves and an 8-1 record. His WHIP in the post season is 0.759. Sure, the Red Sox stole a run off of him in 2004 and the Diamondbacks dinked their way to a win off of him in 2001. But otherwise, he's been money.

There has never been a pitcher like Mariano Rivera. Among a skill-set often discounted, he is the exception. He's been so good for so long that it's big news when a team scores a run off of him and he blows a save. His pinpoint control, his ability to repeat his easy motion time and time again have set him apart from all peers. There have been relief pitchers who have had better years than Rivera. But Mariano Rivera's overall body of work will stand the test of time and sets him apart from all others. Take the time to celebrate his career in 2012. It might be the last time we get to do so.

Players to Celebrate in 2012: Chipper Jones

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 17:54:00 +0000

Baseball is, among all major sports, the game most suited for reflection. Thirty teams play 162 games a season and that's a lot of baseball. The game is also one most tied to the fabric of generations as children play catch with parents and inherit team loyalty and a love of the game. Whether you are young or old, there have been players we've watched who have built a body of work that exceeds those of their peers. We know who they are and we follow them from their rookie seasons until they hang up their spikes for good. With all these thoughts in mind, today begins a series of articles about players who we might watch for the last time in 2012. These are players we've seen in All Star Games and post season games and this coming season will probably be last of their play on the field. Such occasions should be celebrations. Try to forget that they can't run like they used to and miss an occasional fastball they used to crush. Celebrate the memories, the moments these players gave us as fans as they play out their swan songs. Today, we start with Chipper Jones.

It took a long time for this writer to come around to Chipper Jones. He played for a team this writer didn't particularly like. His Atlanta Braves teams always seemed to come in first place and Jones seemed like an arrogant guy on an arrogant team. But it takes a certain amount of arrogance to succeed in sports and all the great players have a touch of it. Baseball is a constant battle between the pitcher and batter, the offense against the defense and the team against another team. You have to believe you are better than the other guy(s) to win. And Jones has softened with age and perspective (as many of us do). His recent conversation recorded here shows a humble player who knows he is nearing the end and his words are frank and touching.

But put all those feelings aside for a moment and simply consider the performance on the field. That's what it's all about when all is said and done, isn't it? While we often know that a player like Albert Pujols is in the midst of a terrific career, it isn't over yet. It's not until a career nears its end can you put it fully in context. Chipper Jones will go down as one of the best players of this generation. His numbers stack up with anyone and even if he never played another game, he should be a first ballot Hall of Fame vote.

One of the things this Fan likes to do is to compare current players with players from the past. And as others have written, to consider a Hall of Fame case, you not only compare a player with the peers from his own generation, but also to those who came before this generation. Such a comparison as the latter becomes difficult because the game changes. Fortunately, stats like WAR and OPS+ help because it puts seasons in perspective as well as park effects and competition. Still, it's a bit of a slippery slope. But, it's fun anyway or else people wouldn't have been doing it since the sport became as huge as it is.

Comparing Chipper Jones' career to other great third basemen of years past finds few peers. Yes, we know that Chipper played a year or so in left field. But primarily he was a third baseman, just like the great Mike Schmidt of the Philadelphia Phillies also played quite a bit of first base toward the end of his career. Mike Schmidt might be the best third baseman this writer has seen in fifty years of watching baseball. Yet Chipper Jones compares favorably with the great Hall of Fame player. Let's take a look:

Games played - Schmidt (2,404), Jones (2,387)
Batting Average - Schmidt (.267), Jones (.304)
OBP - Schmidt (.380), Jones (.402)
Slugging - Schmidt (.527), Jones (.533)
OPS+ - Schmidt (147), Jones (141)
Homers - Schmidt (548), Jones (454)
Doubles - Schmidt (408), Jones (526)
Triples - Schmidt (59), Jones (38)
Runs Scored - Schmidt (1,506), Jones (1,561)
Runs batted in - Schmidt (1,595), Jones (1,561)
Stolen bases/Attempts - Schmidt (174-92, 65.4 percent), Jones (149-46, 77.6 percent)
oWAR - Schmidt (94.4), Jones (82.7)
Post season play - Schmidt (36 games, .236/.304/.386), Jones (92 games, .288/.411/.459).

That's some pretty good comparisons, are they not? Schmidt gets the final nod plus, Schmidt is acknowledged the superior fielder (by a wide margin). The bottom line is that if Mike Schmidt is one of the best ever, Chipper Jones isn't too far behind him.

Chipper Jones is limping into the final chapter of his career and despite battling bad knees and other health issues, still managed an .814 OPS last season. The last three seasons of his career have fallen behind his previous standards, but all have been above .800 in OPS. Schmidt was done by the age of 39 and finished with .742 and .668 OPS seasons. Jones has been to the post season in eleven of his eighteen seasons. It would be nice to see him get one more shot at it. But whether that happens or not, celebrate Chipper Jones this coming season. He's been among the best of his generation and his career stacks up well with the greatest third basemen of all time.

Who Should Play Short for the Rays?

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 16:01:00 +0000

Except for the lack of fannies in their seats and dollars in their coffers, the Tampa Bay Rays are the darlings of baseball. The front office is continually feted and they sport the current American League Manager of the Year in their dugout. The Bay Rays are a talented team with the kind of young pitching that can again push them to battle for the AL East title. But, they are not without question marks. They do not yet know who will play first base or which bat will be the designated hitter. But perhaps their biggest question mark heading into the spring is who they will employ at shortstop.

Shortstop was a disaster last year. As a team, the shortstops did perform a tick above league average in the field, but at the plate, it was a wasteland. In 596 total plate appearances, the Bay Rays' shortstops threw up this amazing slash line: .193/.256/.282. They combined to strike out 147 times and walked only 35 times. They hit only 26 extra base hits all season. Now, it's not like the majors are brimming with great hitting shortstops. Major League shortstops combined for a total slash line of .263/.317/.380, which is pretty pathetic. But those league numbers sure look a whole lot better than what the Rays did in 2011.

According to the depth chart, the same three candidates to play the position in 2011 are still in place: Reid Brignac, Elliot Johnson and Sean Rodriguez (who is on the depth chart for every position including KP duty). Out of those three, who should get the job? In other words, who has the best chance to succeed? Let's look at them one by one.

Reid Brignac: This Fan has always liked Brignac. And last year about this time, this Fan pushed for Reid Brignac to be given the job to play for 155 games. And the Rays did just that to start the season. Brignac was pretty much the regular shortstop until mid-May. By May 21, Brignac was sitting on a slash line of .170/.210/.180. Ugh! Things couldn't get any worse than that. His playing time was limited after and he never recovered. He ended the season at, .193/.227/.221. Like many of the Bay Rays, his troubles were magnified at home. He actually hit .286 on the road but only .153 at home.

While Brignac's defense remained solid and while he has the most range of any of the candidates, there is certainly a question of if he will ever hit big league pitching. Brignac was the 39th highest rated prospect by Baseball America in 2008 and he's still only 25 years old. But he has little discipline at the plate, strikes out nearly 25 percent of his at bats and has lost any pop he showed in his bat in the minor leagues.

There are a couple of iffy positive signs for Brignac. For one, his line drive percentage was at 22.5 percent and sits at 21.1 for his career. When he hit line drives, good things happened. But when he hit grounders and fly balls, nothing ever fell in. His absurdly low .254 BABIP is surely a factor in that when his hit trajectory was on the ground or in the air, he went a combined 18 for 139 at the plate. That's either pathetic contact or terrible luck.

Elliot Johnson: Johnson was inserted after the Bay Rays could no longer handle Brignac's daily struggles. And by the end of June, Johnson was holding his own at the plate. He wasn't spectacular, but his slash line on May 23, 2011 was, .258/.306/.409. Compared to Brignac's numbers, that was great. But he faded, and by August 11, 2011, was down to batting .179. He never fully recovered either and ended the season with a slash line of, .194/.257/.338.

Johnson did play excellent defense according to all fielding metrics. That's a bit of a surprise as he was never considered that great a fielding shortstop in the minors. His entire minor league career is uninspiring. He never made a top prospect list and has never projected to be anything more than a role player.

Sean Rodriguez: Rodriguez became the Rays' shortstop by default after Brignac and Johnson failed to produce. He ended up playing sixty games at the position. Though shortstop was Rodriguez's natural position in the minors, he's not quite the fielder there as the other two. He's a league average shortstop with the glove who seems better suited at second base in the majors. But at least he did a few more things with his bat than the other two. While his final slash line of, .223/.323/.357 won't thrill any analyst, it was a darn sight better than the other two. The one area of concern is that the right-handed bat of Rodriguez seemed totally ineffective against right-handed pitching. His splits that way showed an OPS difference of almost 300 points.

Sean Rodriguez showed consistent power in the minors and his hitting there blows the other two out of the water as far as what he could potentially hit in the majors. While he isn't uber-selective at the plate, he has more discipline than the other two. The feeling here is that of the three, Rodriguez can be a consistent force in the majors on offense. But realistically, you'd prefer to see him at second permanently with Zobrist in right.

Others: The Rays' Triple A shortstop is the journeyman, Rey Olmedo, who at the age of 30 doesn't appear to be much more than minor league filler. Tim Beckham is a highly touted prospect who did well at Double A but regressed a bit once he hit Triple A last season. He's probably another year away.

Conclusions: The lack of Brignac and Rodriguez (and even Upton to a degree) to develop as hitters in the majors thus far leads to questions of how good their hitting instructions are at the major league level. That may not be fair, but you would think one of these guys would hit as well in the majors as they did in the minors. Well, okay, there is always Zobrist, but still. This Fan doesn't personally see Elliot Johnson as an answer. So unless Brignac can show some life in Spring Training, the Rays might be forced to install Sean Rodriguez as their everyday shortstop until Tim Beckham is ready. One thing is for sure, 2012 Rays' shortstops can't possibly be as bad at the plate as 2011.

Nonplussed by the Career of Jorge Posada

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 16:58:00 +0000

When this site was created in 2003, the intent was to write about baseball from a fan's perspective. And while that may or may not have held true over the nine years of this site's activity, to be truthful, the writer here has too many journalistic aspirations and inspirations to really allow the fan side of things to take over completely. As a writer that writes about all baseball teams and players, a level of objectivity has long been maintained as this writer's goal. Jorge Posada defeats all of those high and lofty objectives. And because of the problems he brings to this writer's emotions, summing up his career (that reports have indicated is now over) is difficult. What kind of player was Jorge Posada?

First, the fan side problem. Since this writer was a little boy, the New York Yankees have been the favorite team. That sentiment has been avoided as much as possible in the words of this site. In fact, to this day, people on Twitter still ask about the Fan's favorite team. Which means that the goal of objectivity has been achieved somewhat successfully. Perhaps we are blowing that out of the water today with Jorge Posada. But it's not what you think. Though the 1996 to 2000 run was perhaps the most gratifying span in this Fan's history, Posada has never been a favored part of that warm and toasty memory bank. Jorge Posada has never been a Fan favorite. In fact, it's been just the opposite.

To be totally out front about things, MLB.TV has been a part of this writer's world for as long as that feature has been available. Writing and rooting from northern Maine makes watching a lot of baseball impossible except for daily Red Sox games on NESN. The money spent on MLB.TV has been largely spent to watch the Yankees. And as such, more of that team's games have been watched than any other. The overriding feeling watching Jorge Posada day in and day out was that he sucked as a catcher. Not only did this Fan feel he sucked as a catcher, he seemed like a bully, especially to young pitchers.

The bullying part will have to be explained later, but the fact that Posada was a lousy catcher, especially the last five years of his career are backed up by defensive metrics. According to baseball-reference.com, Posada only had five seasons of his sixteen total where his defensive metrics were not in the negative category. Both B-R and Fangraphs give him similar fielding numbers with B-R coming in at -32 runs for his career and Fangraphs at -22.1 runs. But it's even worse than that.

In Mike Fast's seminal work over at Baseball Prospectus, he confirmed what this writer had thought for a long time. Jorge Posada cost his pitchers a lot of strikes. Fast has a chart of his findings and put Posada third from the bottom (ahead of only Ryan Doumit and Gerald Laird from 2007 to 2011. Fast put his findings into a run format as well, and if his work is correct, then Posada cost his team slightly over 50 runs in just that four year span. So in four years, he nearly doubled the amount of runs he cost the Yankees with other facets of his defense for his career.

Add up all that negative stuff and add in that he led the league in passed balls twice and racked up 142 for his career, PLUS, he wasn't good at throwing base steal attempts out and was only successful 28 percent of the time for his career, the total picture is of a catcher that wasn't very good at his position.

The defensive beliefs of this career are easy to prove via the numbers we have available to us. There is no such defense for the bullying charge other than watching hundreds of games over the years. It is this writer's belief (that will be awfully hard to shake) Posada was a bane to young pitchers like Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and others. They were going to throw Posada's pitch choices and that's all there was to it. There were an awful lot of complaints about the amount of times Posada trotted out to the mound to talk to his pitcher. And indeed that happened with maddening regularity. They almost always happened after a pitcher shook off the catcher's sign.

There were numerous times when this Fan literally screamed at the television to a particular sign given the pitcher in big situations. One that seems etched in this brain forever is a pitch to the Tampa Bay Rays' Dan Johnson. Johnson simply couldn't hit big league pitching. But the Rays always seemed to bring him up to face the Yankees and it always seemed to work. Dan Johnson hit 58 homers in his big league career. The eight he hit against the Yankees were his most against any other team. This writer can't remember the game, but at the time the Yankees and Rays were battling for first place in the division. Posada called the pitch and as soon as that finger was put down, this Fan started screaming and soon enough, Johnson was rounding the bases and the Rays had won the game. Perhaps it was the game on September 10, 2010 when Johnson hit two off of Phil Hughes.

Anyway, as you can see from this post so far, there is a lot of antipathy concerning Posada's career with the Yankees. And yet, when the numbers are compiled, they will show that since 1901, Jorge Posada was the fifteenth most valuable catcher by fWAR. Almost all the names in front of him are Hall of Fame players and others will be (Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez). By those same measurements, he was the twelfth most valuable offensive catcher since 1901. Those are hard numbers to argue.

And Posada had some memorable hits during the Yankees' post season history. But as this writer has said before, when you get that many chances, good things will happen on occasion. His post season offense wasn't particularly spectacular. His .745 post season OPS is pretty good but not terrific. He has been called a clutch player, but no numbers bear that out.

There is no chance for this writer to remain objective about Jorge Posada. He was an old friend on a favored team that maintained excellence from 1996 to the present day. He'll get a lot of attention when he is eligible for the Hall of Fame. Many will vote for him. He's got five rings on his fingers. But for this simple writer, give this Fan Joe Girardi or Russell Martin behind the plate any day of the week and not Jorge Posada.

How Money Makes an Albatross

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 16:45:00 +0000

Say the word, "Zito," to just about any baseball fan in some sort of psyche test and you get a response of, "Bad Contract." And the funny thing about us as fans is that we turn Zito into some kind of pariah. There were two things that are not Zito's fault. First, his skills faded. Secondly, despite the signs that his skills were eroding, some schmuck gave him scads of millions of dollars. That's hardly Zito's fault, is it? Why hate on the guy? There is another player almost equal to Zito in terms of fan antipathy. Before the big reveal of who he is, let's pull out the old comparison trick.

Outfielder A: .274/.332/.467, OPS+ career of 109, career Total Zone Fielding Runs of -30, UZR for career of 1.1 bWAR total of 29.7, fWAR of 36.2.
Outfielder B: .274/.323/.506, OPS+ career of 112, career Total Zone Fielding Runs of -54, UZR for career of 61.6, bWAR total of 23.4, fWAR of 35.3.

How can fielding stats be so different? Anyway, outfielder A has played 15 seasons and 1,807 games. Outfielder B has played 13 seasons and 1,606 games. So the WAR per games played evens out some. They sound like pretty darn similar careers, don't they? Yet, one is reviled and the other adored (perhaps not by analysts though). In case you haven't guessed, outfielder A is Torii Hunter and outfielder B is Alfonso Soriano. Surprised? You shouldn't be.

But the money Alfonso Soriano gets paid skews all thoughts of him as a player. Well, sure, he has iron hands and no instincts in the outfield. He is perceived as selfish. Hunter is the darling of center fielders who will always be remembered for his catch against Barry Bonds in the All Star Game. But the honest truth is that for their careers, their relative worth has been extremely close. It's the money that spoils our perception.

It's a sad fact of life that the Chicago Cubs gave Soriano a contract that was well above his worth. The contract was back-loaded so the first couple of years of the deal actually made Soriano a bargain. According to Fangraphs, Soriano was paid $24 million in total those two years and was worth $48.5 million with his play. That's a steal. But the pay scale kept getting larger and Soriano got older and now he's making $19 million and has no way he can earn that kind of money. But again, is that Soriano's fault? Would you not sign that contract if it was put in front of you? Sure you would. It's not his fault the Cubs were stupid.

Somehow we take the knowledge of contracts like that and with most of our blue collar histories expect a player to become transcendent of the deal. A player's strengths and weaknesses are pretty much established after eight years in the majors, are they not? A guy with concrete hands are not going to soften no matter how many cans of Jergens Lotion you put on them. It's similar to a guy marrying a girl who has always been a planner and worker bee to suddenly become a free spirit after the marriage. People don't change. They are what they are. It's not the doughty girl's fault the groom had misguided expectations. Wow, how did this get autobiographical?

Alfonso Soriano hasn't been a bad major league player. He's hit more than twenty homers ten straight seasons. He's hit more than forty doubles four times and once hit more than fifty. He's never been noted for his plate discipline, but that was well established before the big contract. If you took away all that money, people would look fondly at his career. He's not Hall of Fame player, but he could be in the Hall of Good.

The money makes Alfonso Soriano an albatross and a weight around the Cubs' necks. But it's not Soriano's fault. He just signed his name on the dotted line when it was put in front of him. Blame the former Cubs' regime, but don't blame Soriano. He was what he was and he is what he is and that would have been the same not matter how much he got paid. Oh, and that other guy--Torii Hunter--is going to make only a million less than Soriano this coming season. That freakin' albatross!