The Flagrant Fan

Applauding the Red Sox Deal with Ortiz

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 18:12:00 +0000

Last season, David Ortiz became relevant again. It was quite the surprise. And since it has been a tradition in this spot each year to ponder what the Red Sox should do with David Ortiz, such a post was written way back in November. Recently it was announced that the Red Sox and Big Papi have reached a deal to avoid arbitration. The announcement made it kind of fun to go back to those November musings. According to the announcement, Ortiz will be compensated to the tune of $14.6 million for 2012. That's about a million and a half more than what November's post recommended but at least the Red Sox were wise to resist a multiple year deal. So, well done, Mr. Cherington.

As the November post indicated, it is unlikely that Ortiz will earn his contract. And stating that seems like a contradiction to the first paragraph. But it's not really. Sometimes you have to go with a situation that is good for your ball club despite perhaps a bad value judgement on a player's worth. The Red Sox with David Ortiz in the line up in 2012 is simply a better line up than without him. Heading into his thirty-seventh year makes Ortiz a long shot to reproduce what he did last year. And no projection system consulted predicts that he will.

David Ortiz put up a slash line last year of .309/.398/.554. As noted in the November piece, Ortiz hit lefties and inside fastballs again like he did in the past. He cut down on his strikeouts. His season was among the biggest surprises in baseball. All the projections predict he will be more in the .277/.378/.515 range in 2012. That's still potent production at the designated hitter position that few teams will be able to match. With the injury to Martinez in Detroit, no other contending team has a weapon like that in their arsenal. Frankly, the projections seem a bit optimistic, but the thoughts here remain the same: The Red Sox line up will be better with David Ortiz than without him.

But that fact remains that David Ortiz is a risk. As we saw in the early stages of 2009 and 2010, what Ortiz does well can disappear just as fast. By resisting a multiple year offer, the Red Sox have continued to protect themselves from an older player suddenly declining past the reclamation point. And by signing the deal at below Ortiz's asking point in an arbitration deal probably saved them a few million if Ortiz would have won his case. In the end, the Red Sox probably paid more than market value. But the move was a wise one.

There is no doubt that David Ortiz could have one more good season in him. If he does, the Red Sox will be that much tougher to beat. If he doesn't, the Red Sox haven't sunk a cost beyond the upcoming season. Well done. Well done, indeed.

Japanese and Cuban Players Are Risky

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 15:59:00 +0000

Two of the larger story lines of this baseball off season have been the pursuit of Yu Darvish and Yeonis Cespedes. Ironically, both ended up signing for American League West teams. And the two acquisitions point to the difficulty in evaluating obtaining players from both countries. We have the scouting reports and how the players performed relative to the competition in their respective countries. But nobody knows how that will translate to success in Major League Baseball. Ozzie Guillen said it best. Wanting such players is like gambling.

Getting players from either Cuba or Japan is difficult. Japan has the posting situation where a team has to first pay the Japanese team that owns the rights to the player just for the opportunity to negotiate a deal. As the Darvish deal shows, that can be an expensive proposition. It goes without saying that a Cuban player has to first defect from his country, obtain citizenship in another country and then get a visa to play in the United States. Cuban defectors then become free agents that instigate bidding wars for their services. The final tally for the Oakland Athletics was $36 million for four years for Cespedes.

Naturally, when you have to lay out that amount of cash to obtain a player, you want that player to play in the majors and not the minors. Many experts insist that Cuban baseball is the equivalent to High A minor league baseball. It's not a guarantee that such players are ready for prime time. Japanese players have even more resistance to the idea of pitching in the minors. For a Japanese player to want to leave their home country, they want to play at the highest level in this country.

To get some kind of handle on the value proposition, a search was made of Cuban born players since 1980. The 1980 date assumes that the player in question was more highly likely to been a defection situation since those players were likely born after Fidel Castro came into power in Cuba. The search found forty players who have played a total of 173 years in the majors. Of course, many of those years were partial seasons, but we'll stick with that for now.

A similar search also found 45 Japanese players who have played a total of 175 years. This near-symmetry gives us a nice comparison point. The list of success stories among these players is not a large one. Five of the 40 Cuban players have put together careers of more than 10 bWAR. Six of the Japanese players have compiled more than 10 bWAR thus far. Sixteen of the Japanese players have negative WAR totals. Fifteen of the Cuban players have compiled negative WAR totals for their career.

Career leaders among the Japanese players:

Ichiro Suzuki - 54.5 WAR
Hideo Nomo - 20.6 WAR
Hideki Matsui - 16.9 WAR
Takashi Saito - 11.1 WAR

Career leaders among Cuban players:

Livan Hernandez - 27.6 WAR
Orlando Hernandez - 21.1 WAR
Yunel Escobar - 17.2 WAR
Jose Contreras - 13.9 WAR

That's not an overly impressive list. There are probably better ways to calculate value for Cuban and Japanese players than years played because of the obvious problem in that many of those years were partial years. Perhaps others have done better work at figuring the value proposition here. But for the sake of making a point, Japanese players have played 175 combined seasons and have compiled 205.1 WAR or 1.172 WAR per season. Cuban players have only accumulated 120 war in their 173 combined seasons or .69 WAR per season. Of course, if you take Ichiro out of the mix (the one true superstar among all of these players) the Japanese players come down to .92 WAR per season.

Players from these two countries provide strong interest among clubs in Major League Baseball. And while the teams should scour the world for talent, there is risk involved. Obtaining such players can be expensive and as we have seen in our crude little study, the value obtained hasn't been great.

NL East: A Fascinating Place: Mets

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 16:03:00 +0000

This is the last post in a series that has looked at the boiler plate that is now the National League East. The series started with a look at the Phillies and determined that, with that pitching rotation, and despite a weaker line up, should be given the nod once again as the favorite to win the division. The next three posts focused on the Braves, Marlins and Nationals and found all three of those teams with the on-paper ability to challenge the Phillies at their own game. Each of those three teams have question marks that must have positive answers to approach the amount of wins necessary to rival the Phillies. This post focuses on the Mets. To be honest, this post was dreaded.

By now, everyone is aware of the New York Mets' financial plight. Heck, even the general manager is on record as joking about it. There is no reason for this post to retread the back story to the mess the Wilpons have become. One needs to look no further than the amazing work done by Howard Megdal in his new e-book, Wilpon's Folly. That book, which can be found here, is probably the the best $2.51 you'll ever spend. Read it and you'll know all the nuances to why the Mets are where they are.

Instead, this post will focus on what the Mets will have on the field. It's certainly a cause and effect situation as the financial troubles have limited what Sandy Alderson has been able to do to field a viable team. The team lost one of its best players in Jose Reyes. But for now, it still has David Wright. Jason Bay is still a sunk cost in left field. How bad will it be? It might not be as bad as we think. Before we can actually look at the team, there was another new wrinkle in that the dimensions of Citi Field have been altered.

Again, there is no sense in breaking new ground on the new dimensions of the park the team has worked during the off season. Adam Rubin of ESPN.com has written the definitive piece on the new dimensions and includes statistics on what the dimensions mean for the team. The biggest takeaway from the terrific article is that the Mets should hit 27 more homers at home this coming season while the visiting teams should hit 23 more. And while the park should still be more favorable toward the pitchers, it's more neutral than it was before. Add that to Ryan Howard starting on the disabled list and some top sluggers like Pujols and Fielder now plying their trade in the American League, it all boils down to better news for the Mets.

One of the reasons we can make that statement is that the Mets' starting rotation consists of ground ball pitchers. The rotation should consist of Jonathan Niese (1.84 ground ball to fly ball ratio), Mike Pelfrey (1.31), R.A. Dickey (1.54), Dillon Gee (1.45) and Johan Santana (0.87 for his career). Of course, it is questionable if Santana will start the year with the Mets and if he is available, just what he can offer the team.

Jonathan Niese might be the most underrated young pitcher in the game. If you look at his record last year, you'll see an unimpressive 11-11 record with an equally unimpressive ERA of 4.40. But that cover really doesn't judge the book. He had an extremely high BABIP against last season at .333. Part of that was due to a fairly high line drive rate at 20.6 percent. The Mets' infield defense will be discussed in a moment, but suffice it to say that it didn't help Niese, a ground ball pitcher. Plus, a fairly significant amount of balls hit in the air ended up over the fence. Since opponents do not hit a lot of fly balls against him, we can consider that home rate a bit of a fluke. Niese had a FIP last season of 3.36 and an xFIP of 3.28. He was a much better pitcher than he looked.

R.A. Dickey comes right behind him following his mountain climbing adventure. Hopefully, the Mets won't hold that against him as they obviously didn't want him to risk such an feat. But it's not like the team has better options, so Dickey will get his 30 starts. The knuckleball pitcher had sort of the opposite season of Niese and with a .278 BABIP, his 3.28 ERA was a bit lucky. But Dickey is as reliable a starter as there is and should give his team a chance to win every five days out.

Mike Pelfrey is a bit of a mystery. At times he looks fantastic and then he doesn't. His real problem is that he doesn't miss enough bats. His strikeout rate was among the lowest in the majors for starting pitchers while still walking three or more batters per nine innings. That's not a good recipe. With Pelfrey, it all depends on the vagarious nature of the batted ball. Since there are a lot of them, it worked in 2010 but did not in 2011. He's a solid innings eater but that's about the best you can say.

Dillon Gee has been a bit of a good luck charm for the Mets as he has won 15 of his 23 decisions as a starting pitcher for the team. But that charm seemed to tarnish a bit in the second half last season. More precisely, luck caught up with him. He puts too many people on base with four walks per nine innings with a strikeout rate that is just passable. He produces more ground balls than fly balls and is a reliable starter. But he's not great. He's more league average and probably better than Pelfrey. But not by much.

Santana is the wild card in all of this. Nobody really knows if he will offer anything to the team in 2012. From recent history, he can't be counted on health-wise with stories as recent as December that he might not be ready to pitch. The Mets will then have to have an open audition for the fifth starter in Spring Training.

Again, this is a ground ball staff. Unfortunately, the Mets don't have the best fielding infield. David Wright is consistently rated as one of the worst fielding third basemen in baseball. He was a full ten runs below average in 2011. He is what he is and one can only hope that he has a better year in the field than normal. His offense should improve with the new dimensions and he is still enough of an offensive force to offset his defense nicely.

Ruben Tejada takes over at short. He will only be 22 years old in 2012. Tejada is a solid defender who gave the Mets surprising offensive production last year. He has no power, but he hit .284 with a .360 on-base average. That was a complete surprise and Bill James doesn't buy it in his projections this season. The Mets, of course, hope that it wasn't a fluke. Still, he's not a bad shortstop at an important position not overly ripe in the majors with talent.

Second base will be handed to Daniel Murphy. The move is a huge risk as the position isn't natural to Murphy, normally an outfielder/first basemen. He didn't overly embarrass himself at the position last season and the guy sure showed he can hit in the majors with his .350 wOBA last season in over 400 plate appearances. How his fielding plays over a full season will be interesting to watch.

Ike Davis should be back at first this season. Davis lost almost all of 2011 to injury and he is a large key to how good the Mets can be in 2011. Davis is a slick fielding first baseman who has shown flashes of excellent power with great on-base ability. This is a pivotal season for him as he has to show that he is someone the Mets can count on moving forward. If he breaks down again, the Mets do have other options but none with the upside of Davis.

Josh Thole has been a disappointment behind the plate. The thinking was that he was the catcher of the future. Instead, he had a terrible time adjusting to the majors. His offense was certainly better in the second half and he does display some decent plate discipline. He might just hit after all, but his defense left a lot to be desired and new research showed that he wasn't great at blocking balls in the dirt or framing pitches to the benefit of his pitchers. The Mets have to hope that Thole makes major strides in 2012 to become the catcher they thought they had for the future. He is backed up by Mike Nikeas, who gets a chance after a long minor league career. He's a decent receiver who has yet to show an ability to hit major league pitching.

The Mets outfield is a mixed bag with Bay still anchored in left. Bay is not as bad a defender as he is made out to be, but he's not great by any means. The disappointment for the Mets with his big contract has been his offense. After big numbers in Pittsburgh and in Boston, Bay has done little damage as a member of the Mets. Perhaps no one will benefit more from the new dimensions of his home park where so many of his fly balls went to die. The Rubin article linked earlier in this post indicates that Bay could double his home run output with the new dimensions. If he can do that and become some of the force he was in the past, Mets fans should feel better about his place on the team. His offensive performance will be quite interesting to watch in 2012.

Lucas Duda is a first baseman now playing right field. He can mash major league pitching, but he was brutal in the field. If he can improve his offense further (likely) and improve defensively (not as likely), he can be a nice player for the Mets. Still, it seems that either Duda or Ike Davis will be traded eventually.

The new center fielder is Andres Torres. He's a terrific fielder who fell down for the Giants offensively last season. He'll have to cover a lot of ground for the Mets with Duda in right and Bay in left, but he's certainly capable of doing that. The key is if he is the kind of offensive player he was in 2010 or the one he was in 2011. Bill James predicts something somewhere in the middle, which makes sense. If that comes close to being true, the Mets have a fine center fielder.

The Mets bullpen has been totally revamped for 2012 (on the cheap of course). The closer will be Frank Francisco. An earlier post at this site indicated that "Fat Frankie" as he had been dubbed by Toronto bloggers, has pitched his entire career in terrible pitcher ballparks (Texas and Toronto). He could really benefit from pitching at Citi Field as he's been a great reliever on the road and terrible at home for most of his career. Look for him to have a surprisingly good season.

That same feeling isn't shared by the addition of Jon Rauch. This really tall pitcher gave up a ton of homers last year for a relief pitcher. He is a fly ball pitcher and perhaps his new home ballpark will aid him as well. There have been whispers that he's got a bit of a messed up makeup. But we have to give him the benefit of the doubt.

The Mets also obtained Ramon Ramirez from the Giants and he was very solid for them last year. He along with returnees, Bobby Parnell, Manny Acosta and D.J. Carrasco should provide the Mets will a solid bullpen.

The conclusion and bottom line for the 2012 New York Mets is that there are worse teams in the majors. The Astros and Orioles are certainly worse. If all goes really well for the Mets, they could win 80 games. But the competition in the NL East has blown by them and will be really stiff. And until the Mets financial mess can be straightened out, it will be like this for a while. They have a general manager who has dealt with building teams with a limited budget, so the news could be a lot worse. But it could be a heck of a lot better.

NL East: A Fascinating Place: Nationals

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 19:52:00 +0000

This is the fourth post in a series that has looked at the National League East, a division that has had some dynamic movement during this off season. The first post looked at the Phillies and they are the top dogs until somebody knocks them off. The Braves were covered in the second post and it was seen that they have the potential to win 95 games if everything goes perfectly. The third post covered the Marlins, who were shown to be vastly improved and could be in a position to shake up the division. Today's installment looks at the Washington Nationals. The Nationals seemed to be in on every free agent mentioned during the off season. While the team didn't get Fielder or Reyes, they did acquire two starting pitchers. Will that be enough to put them in contention?

The Nationals won 80 games last season. Can they add ten or more wins this season to put them in contention for the division or set them up for a wild card run? Like all of the teams in their division, the Nationals will live or die depending on how well their starting rotation holds up. By adding Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson, the Nationals have certainly improved their rotation. But by how much? If we trade in Gonzalez for Livan Hernandez, you substitute a 3.5 fWAR pitcher for a 1.9 fWAR. Many have worried about Gonzalez in the hitter friendly home park he will now pitch in for half of his outings. He will certainly face tougher competition within his division than he did pitching for Oakland. But he should still be at least a 3.0 fWAR pitcher giving the Nationals a one win edge on what they had with Hernandez.

Edwin Jackson illicits a lot of different reactions in baseball reporting. Some of his numbers are encouraging and others are baffling. But the bottom line is that he has garnered 3.8 fWAR in each of his last two seasons so that seems to be a figure we can stand on. If the Nationals swing him in the rotation instead of Jason Marquis, who was a 1.6 fWAR pitcher for the Nationals last season, that's a 2.2 win swing upward for the Nationals. Is this a bit of a pie in the sky picture? Well, sure. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball except the games already in the books. But in theory, between Jackson and Gio Gonzalez, the Nationals have picked up 3.3 wins. That's a start. Where else can the wins come from?

How about a full year of Stephen Strasburg? Worried about giving him a full year? Don't blame you. It's scary. But even if Strasburg makes only fifteen starts (three times as many as last year), then he should triple his 1.1 fWAR, right? If he gets to twenty starts, then that's 4.4 fWAR based on his five starts last year. Twenty starts seems to be a realistic goal and expectation. That 4.4 fWAR would effectively replace his own fWAR last year along with Ross Detwiler's 0.6 WAR and Chien-Ming Wang's 0.2 WAR. Or, to put it another way, 4.4 WAR replaces 1.9 WAR from last year giving the Nationals up another 2.5 for a gained total so far of 5.8 wins. With everything else being equal, the Nationals are now theoretically up to 86 wins.

And yes, this is a simplistic way of looking at things as WAR doesn't go hand in hand with wins on a one to one basis, but we're just shooting the breeze here, right? Now say Jordan Zimmermann is as effective as last year but can increase his output to 200 innings. You can gain another half a win there. John Lannon is John Lannon and we can only expect him to be about as good as last year. Therefore, our grand increase in wins from the starting rotation is up 6.3 wins.

The problem from here is that the offense and the bullpen really can't make up the four win difference we need to push the Nationals to the 90 win total. Well, maybe it can if you think about it. Say Ryan Zimmerman can get 600 plate appearances instead of 440, that should add a win or two to our total. For the sake of being conservative, give him one more win. And let's say that Ian Desmond and Michael Morse can improve their defense by about half, which isn't unreasonable with Desmond's maturity rate and Morse becoming more proficient in the outfield (agreed, a stretch). That would be another win.

Okay, now comes the stroke of genius. Let's give Jayson Werth the benefit of the doubt and call last year an off year. Werth was a five fWAR player for two straight seasons with the Phillies before last season which came in at a disappointing 2.5. All he has to do is get back to his Phillies-like performance and you pick up another two and a half wins. We're almost there!

It's not like this grand game is not without its pitfalls. Wilson Ramos became one of the better catchers in the game last season. He will need to keep improving. Michael Morse's fantastic slugging season last year will have to continue. Adam LaRoche will have to be better than the average Adam LaRoche. Roger Bernadina and Danny Espinosa will need to continue to improve.

The bullpen will have to be as good as it was last year and as good as it still looks on paper with Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge and Sean Burnett in the most important roles. The Nationals also have some depth. Chien-Ming Wang showed flashes of his old self last season. Tom Gorzelanny is capable in a pinch as is Detwiler. The Nationals also have some exciting talent waiting in the wings in case some of these pieces get broken.

There are concerns for this Nationals team. You have to wonder about Morse. You have to wonder if Ian Desmond can really be the shortstop the Nationals need. Can Werth bounce back? Can Zimmerman and Zimmermann stay healthy? These are all questions that will need to be answered once the season starts. But just imagine--if you can--these Washington Nationals performing as capable on the field as they appear to be on paper. If that happens, this NL East races can be a really wild race. It can happen and it just might. It's going to be a lot of fun to watch.

Yet Another New MLB Statistic

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 16:58:00 +0000

There are simply some records over at Baseball-reference.com that are more fun to look at than others. Russell Branyan has one of those records. Russell the Muscle just signed a minor league contract with the New York Yankees. If Branyan manages to crack the Yankees' line up, it will be the eleventh franchise for which the slugger has played. So far, he has homered at least once in each of his stops. Branyan now has played parts of fourteen seasons. But his Baseball-reference.com page is 25 lines long. That seemed like a lot. And so hours were culled on B-R to see how unique that figure is. This research has resulted in yet another new statistic called, "Baseball-reference Lines Per Years Played." Obviously, we need an acronym: BRLPYP.

And it turns out that Russell Branyan is not the record holder for BRLPYP. He is among the leaders but he doesn't come out on top. Our all time record holder for BRLPYP is Bobo Newsom. Newsom pitched for nine teams over his twenty year career from 1929 to 1953. A right-handed pitcher, Newsom won 211 games. But he lost 222. Even so, his career ERA+ was 107, so he was pretty good. Newsom's Baseball-reference.com record is 38 lines long. From what research can tell during this journey, that is also a record. The longest B-R records were: Newsom (38), Deacon McGuire (35), Rickey Henderson (33) with David Weathers, Terry Mulholland and Hoyt Wilhelm all tied at 32. Newsom's 38 lines for 20 seasons gives him a BBLPYP of 1.9 even.

Second all time in BBLPYP is Willie Montenez at 1.857. Montenez played for parts of fourteen seasons for nine different teams between 1966 and 1982. He was originally signed by the Cardinals but they lost him in the Rule 5 draft to the Angels who gave him back to the Cardinals less than a year later. Montenez is also part of MLB history because he was the player the Cardinals sent to the Phillies when Curt Flood refused to be part of that deal. Thus began Flood's fight against Major League Baseball. Montenez was a useful hitter for a long time but never stayed in one place very long. Amazingly, he played for multiple teams in the same seasons on six different occasions. His B-R record is 26 lines long.

Branyan comes in third all time with a BBLPYP of 1.796. Following Branyan on our all time BBLPYP list are:

Bob Miller - 1.705 (29 lines for 17 seasons)
Ocavio Dotel - 1.692 (22 lines for thirteen seasons). Dotel will set a record if he plays for the Tigers this season as his thirteenth franchise.
David Weathers - 1.684 (32 lines for 19 seasons)
Chuck McElroy - 1.615 (21 lines for 13 seasons)
Terry Mulholland - 1.6 (32 lines for 20 seasons)

This new statistic is sure to rock the very foundation of the Sabr community.

NL East: A Fascinating Place: Marlins

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 17:05:00 +0000

This is the third post in a series looking at the newly fascinating National League East Division. In the first two installments, the Phillies were given the top spot they deserve until some team dethrones them. They have been the king. The Braves finished a distant second last season with a fade at the end but were found to be capable of winning 95 games if everything goes according to plan. But that's a long shot. The truth is that they still look like an 89-win team. The early post season was dominated by the newly renamed, Miami Marlins. They have a new manager, a new ballpark, a new shortstop, new pitchers and a new outlook on life. Can this team that lost 90 games a year ago compete with the big boys this year? Let's take a look.

The Miami Marlins' quest for legitimacy rests largely on the starting rotation. Carlos Zambrano and Mark Buehrle should provide some stability to what has been a rotation in flux for multiple seasons. Of course, "stability," is kind of a relative term when mentioning Carlos Zambrano. But the thought here is that he will be fine working under Ozzie Guillen, his friend, and living large under the Florida sun. Buehrle, of course, is stability personified and about as consistent as a pitcher gets. He's not spectacular, but if you want quality innings by the boatloads, Buehrle will give you that.

Anibal Sanchez is also a stable force in that rotation. He had a weird season last year when he was among the best pitchers of the first half and then was nearly non-existent in the second half. But make no mistake about it, Sanchez is one tough pitcher with a great arsenal of pitches and loads of talent. He could very easily put together a big season under Ozzie.

The other two rotation spots are worrisome for different reasons. Josh Johnson has to be in the top five of pitchers in the National League with his talent. But he can't seem to stay healthy. If Johnson can get thirty starts, whoo boy, that would be interesting to watch. The guy can bring it. One of these years, he's going to stay healthy. If this is that season, the Marlins will be very tough indeed.

The other is Ricky Nolasco. Every year, Nolasco's FIP is lower than his actual ERA and we all scratch our heads and wonder why he isn't better than he's shown. But he regressed last year and line drives whistled all over the place (23.8 percent) and his BABIP jumped to .331. Perhaps he'll settled down this season. All the Marlins really need is for him to be as good as he was in 2010 and 2011. They would take that kind of performance from their fifth starter in a heartbeat.

On paper, this rotation could put together a big season. But Zambrano has to prove he still has something in the tank, Nolasco needs to be better and Josh Johnson needs to stay healthy.

The Marlins' bullpen should be solid. The addition of Heath Bell slots Juan Carlos Oviedo into the number two spot where he should belong. Mike Dunn showed that he has a big arm and the rest of the bullpen is passable. Bell should make a huge difference. Man, San Diego and now Florida? Bell sure knows how to pick his paradises.

Catching those pitchers isn't a pretty aspect of this team. John Buck is one seriously overrated catcher. His only real positive is blocking balls in the dirt. His offense was a one year fluke up in Toronto and a whole bunch of nothing in most other years and he's terrible at obtaining strikes on close pitches with the way he receives the pitch. Backing him up is the equally ineptness of Brett Hayes. The catching position is a real weakness on this team.

The infield, on the other hand, could be a real strength. Omar Infante is terrific defensively at second base, but slipped pretty dramatically at the plate last season. Projections predict him to bounce back in 2012. That's important and would certainly help. With Buehrle, his defense should really come in handy.

Jose Reyes, of course, was the biggest acquisition of the off season and will be the shortstop. Reyes, when healthy, is one of the premier all-around shortstops in baseball. His energy also lifts a baseball team, something the Mets will surely miss. Naturally, his health will always be a concern. He has to stay healthy to make this deal work and to bring the Marlins to the next level. Perhaps the warm weather in Florida will help him to keep those muscles loose.

Gaby Sanchez is a great defender at first. But he isn't a slugger. He's more of a contact hitter, which makes him somewhat of an anomaly at the position. The good news is that with the Fielder and Pujols defections to the other league, power hitting first basemen will be rarer in the National League. That bodes well for the Marlins. Sanchez is steady and productive if not spectacular.

That brings us to the enigma of Hanley Ramirez. The erstwhile star will move to third, which is good news for the Marlins defensively. The feeling here is that Ramirez will respond to Ozzie Guillen and will rebound offensively. The prediction here is that in 2012, Hanley Ramirez will reestablish himself as a premier batsman in the National League. If he can do that, look out National League!

The Marlins outfield is a bit of a puzzle. We baseball experts made fun of Emilio Bonifacio for years until he shut us all up with a 3.3 fWAR season last year with surprising defense in center with a .360 on-base percentage. Is he really that good? Time will tell. It's still hard to believe. But for now, he's not the butt of our jokes anymore.

Logan Morrison is still a first baseman playing the outfield. He's terrible out there. And his offense took a dive in 2011 as well. The guy has all kinds of talent though and should rebound offensively. Whether he can improve his defense is another whole kettle of fish. It would be great if LoMo could be better known for his play again then his tweets on Twitter.

Everybody loves Mike Stanton and the big kid has proved more than adequate in right field. He also busted out with 34 homers while adding 30 doubles last season. His upside is tremendous and we all look forward to what he can achieve in baseball. In order for him to reach his potential though, his pitch recognition needs to improve greatly and he needs to make more contact. Take that power and add twenty points to his batting average and you have the bomb.

The Marlins' bench is a weakness and the Marlins lack depth. If anyone gets hurt, the team could have trouble. If things don't go well physically, this team could easily fall to a .500 level. But if they stay healthy? If the Marlins push all the right buttons and everyone plays to their ability level, this team could get scary and challenge the existing powers in the division. And hey, it will be fun to see that home run feature going off in center field!

BBA Linkfest - General Anticipation

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 16:00:00 +0000

The members of the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance are getting excited now that pitchers and catchers report to their spring assignments in less than two weeks. Great posts are blossoming everywhere. But then again, if you have been following this weekly links post every Thursday, you know that great posts are the norm around the chapter. As we do each week at this time, here are this week's General Chapter links. Please give a click and your comments are always appreciated.

We'll start this week with a link from Going Yard and the provocative title of, "Why I Hate ESPN." That's enough of a teaser for you to click the link.

Sadly, The Golden Sombrero's, Dee Clark, finished his amazing series on the top fifty prospects. But hey, one series ends and Mike Rosenbaum begins another with a preview of the baseball draft. The first of the series introduces us to Joey Gallo, the fine wine of prospects?

Grubby Glove has a proposal for its BBA buds. This Fan thinks we should support it. Also check out a wonderful post on what a baseball fan did on Super Bowl Sunday.

You can probably guess which athlete Forbes Magazine selected as its most hated player in baseball. Just in case you guessed wrong, The Hall of Very Good has the answer.

Theo of at Hot Corner Harbor plays a game of, "Name that Molina." How fun is that!? Must read in spades.

Our friend over at Left Field gives us the newest market inefficiency. Bet you can't guess what it is.

If you haven't been following along on Jonathan Mitchell's top prospects series, you are seriously missing out. This week's version is on the top prospects in the Twins' organization. MLB Dirt.

Sam Evans over at MLB Reports has an interesting idea for MLB about its roster size.

Over at Niktig's Baseball Blog, its author makes some bold 2012 predictions. Time will tell!

Old Time Family Baseball remembers when Nick Johnson was hungry. His hunger turned into a problem. Read on.

Sadly, this will be the last link here for Mark Smith over at The Platoon Advantage as he was hired by the Atlanta Braves. But how cool is that!? Good for you, Mark. In the meantime, TPA picked up another great writer in Cee Angi. Great choice!

Since we've already mentioned ESPN and since the Super Bowl is still in our memory back (alas), J-Doug over at Rational Pastime takes an analytical look at ESPN's Super Bowl picks.

The Replacement Level Baseball Blog has a great series going on looking at each division heading into 2012. You should read all of them. But the latest is on the AL West.

Over at The Sports Banter, one writer's head is still spinning at the David Wright rumors. Rightly so.

The usually effervescent Sully over at Sully Baseball has a more sobering moment this week with a tribute to Danny Clyburn, who was sadly killed this week. A fitting tribute.

Danny Zyskind of Through the Fence Baseball reminds us of a forgotten prospect--a guy whose name was on a lot of people's lips just a few years ago.

Russ Blatt has started a fun series over at 85% Sports on how baseball teams got their names. He starts with the AL East. Fun stuff!

Ryan Sendek of Analysis Around the Horn has given you fantasy baseball fans the ultimate tool for your drafts! You have to check this out.

Sooze over at Babes Love Baseball is doing her favorite thing: Baseball Season Previews. But Sooze does them in Haiku! Can guarantee you that nobody else comes close to matching that!

The writer of The Ball Caps Blog has a really lame television set. He ain't kidding either. Highly entertaining stuff.

Baseball Unrated's weekly column feature this week bounces off a Danny Knobler piece on steroid users and the Hall of Fame.

Kyle Davis of Call to the Pen spotted a couple of big stars in full uniform.

Mario Salvini of Che Palle! wants you to buy a lock of Jose Reyes' hair. It is for a good cause, but eww.

Matt Whitener of Cheap.Seats.Please. announces his top five moments in Cardinal history from a fan's perspective.

In exciting news, Crum-Bum Beat has found Derek Holland's missing mustache!

TheNaturalMevs of Diamond Hoggers fame forgives Josh Hamilton. Agree with every sentiment here.

The Baseball Index has some American League post season predictions for 2012. Agree? Disagree? Check it out.

Matt Melton of Pop Fly Boys ponders on how the Cardinals can replace Albert Pujols.

Have a great week everyone!

NL East: A Fascinating Place: Braves

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 15:33:00 +0000

Yesterday began a new series on the National League East, a division that has dramatically evolved during the off season. The series began, of course, with the Phillies. The Phillies are still the top dog until some team rises and knocks them off their perch. Could that team be the Atlanta Braves? Not if it is last year's Braves who never looked as good as the Phillies. And certainly not the September Braves who had as bad a fall as the Red Sox and lost was looked earlier to be an insurmountable wild card lead. As we look at the 2012 Braves, the first question is if this team is better than 89 wins.

Why 89 wins? Because last year, 89 wins wasn't good enough for the playoffs and it won't be enough again this coming season. The Phillies should win 90 at the very least. So the Braves need to be better in 2012 than they were in 2011. Is there any hope that they can be better? Yes and no. Yes because so many of their players had down seasons in 2011 and no because there are a lot of "ifs" on this team. Of the early projections consulted for this piece, 89 wins was this team's projection. Uh oh.

The easiest place to start are with the "Ifs." The biggest "if" of the 2012 season is the health of three-fifths of the Braves' starting rotation. Tim Hudson is coming off back surgery (November) to repair a herniated disc. Tommy Hanson missed most of the second half with persistent pain in his shoulder. A small hole was found but surgery was not deemed necessary. Hanson says he is fine and ready for Spring Training. Lastly, Jair Jurrjens missed much of the second half with knee problems. Jurrjens and Hanson had a big first half of the season in 2011 only to be unavailable much of the rest of the season. IF the best case scenario results and all three can pitch with good health for most of the season, then the Braves will be in good shape depending on some other "ifs." Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor should be solid in the back end of the rotation.

What does Chipper Jones have left? Jones played 126 games last season and managed 512 plate appearances. That was more than expected considering his age and the condition of his knees. The problem is that the Braves are in the National League and Jones has to play the field to play at all. Chipper Jones wasn't a great third baseman in his prime and he certainly is a liability in the field now. Even so, if the Braves can get the same production from this future Hall of Fame player as he was in 2011, the value proposition still works. Martin Prado can come in from left field to replace Jones if Jones' health falters. But the Braves need Chipper to have one more good season.

Can Tyler Pasternicky (proposing "Reverend Nick" for a nickname) make the jump to Major League Baseball? The kid is only 21 but is projected to be the Braves' starting shortstop. The good news is that he can't be much worse than Alex Gonzalez was last year for the Braves. The Braves carried Gonzalez to the tune of a .270 on-base percentage last year and his defense declined. If Pasternicky can come close to a .300 on-base percentage and play solid defense, he will be an improvement. Scouting reports blunt some of the enthusiasm of Pasternicky as a prospect. So we'll have to see how this works out. If Pasternicky can't cut it, the Braves have a backup plan in Jack Wilson. Wilson is still a good shortstop but can't hit much better than Gonzalez.

The last "if" is whether the bullpen can stay fabulous after a year of overuse and IF manager, Fredi Gonzalez, can be compelled to go to that well less often. When your bullpen is that good, it's tough to resist the temptation. A projected bullpen of Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Arodys Viscaino, Anthony Varvaro and Christhian Martinez are a collective weapon in what has to be the best bullpen in baseball.

The good news is that Martin Prado, Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward all had offensive seasons below expectations last year. Uggla has had bad years before and always bounced back with a good one. He seems to be on the "every-other-year" plan of offensive efficiency. This, then, should be the good year. But even his "off" year was good enough for second place on the team in fWAR (among position players). Uggla's defense will always be a liability. It's been said in this space before: Switching Uggla to left and bringing Prado back to the infield is the thing to do. But that will never happen.

Speaking of Martin Prado, he also had an off year offensively. After being a .300+/.350+/.450+ guy for the Braves the previous three seasons, Prado sank to .260/.302/.385 last season. A .266 BABIP certainly didn't help and that gives hope that Prado should bounce back to his career norms. If he can, that would be a two win swing for the Braves.

Jason Heyward is saying all the right things this off season. He is working hard and has a positive outlook. He'll need it. Heyward was so good in 2010 and so bad in 2011 that it is really difficult to know which player will show up in 2012. The kid just seems to have too much ability not to bounce back. But it is a huge concern. Heyward lost his manager's confidence last season and when he did play, was placed at the back end of the batting order. If Heyward is not hitting in the middle of the line up and making things happen, the Braves have less of a chance than otherwise.

Looking around the rest of the team, the Braves are led by Brian McCann, one of the most under-appreciated players of his age. You can count on McCann to have another solid season and he is backed up quite capably behind the plate by David Ross.

Freddie Freeman should be able to build on a great rookie season and if he can improve his defense, will be a fixture at first base for quite some time. Expect even better power numbers this season and it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Freeman can slug over .500 this coming season.

Michael Bourn faltered a bit for the Braves down the stretch and for a fast guy, he should be more patient at the plate. But he's the best center fielder the Braves have had in years and the Braves can only benefit by having Bourn the entire season.

After considering this team the last couple of hours, the conclusion is that if everything goes right, this could be a 95 win team. Good seasons from Uggla, Heyward and Prado could be worth four or five wins. Even if the rotation has some health issues, Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran are waiting in the wings for their chance. Pasternicky or Wilson shouldn't hurt them and should provide good defense in what is a sub-par defensive infield. The Braves have a terrific defensive outfield, a strong bullpen and a top five catching core. A lot has to go right for them to win 95 games. But if it does, 2012 will be mighty interesting in Atlanta.

NL East: A Fascinating Place: Phillies

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 16:12:00 +0000

The East division of the National League is starting to look a lot like the American League version. There are the obvious contenders, the interesting teams who have greatly improved themselves and one really bad club. And with an extra wild card spot now up for grabs, the division will prove even more interesting. The Miami Marlins have a new stadium, a new manager and new fire power. The Nationals have put a great rotation (on paper) together and have Bryce Harper looming. The Phillies have been perennial division winners and the Braves still have a very good team. 2012 could be a fascinating season. In the next few days, we'll look at each team in the division starting today with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies still have three of the best starting pitchers on the planet in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. The trio's strikeout to walk ratio alone makes them breathtaking to behold. Barring injury, three out of five games, the Phillies will be pretty hard to beat. Vance Worley proved to be capable of replacing the now departed, Roy Oswalt. Joe Blanton and Joel Pineiro will battle for the fifth rotation spot with Blanton already under contract and therefore given the edge. There's little doubt that Worley will regress a bit. But his strikeout rate and other peripherals were very good and make a large regression doubtful. If Blanton comes back with a strong season, the Phillies will be hard to catch.

The Phillies bullpen now sports one of the game's best closers in Jonathan Papelbon. Love the guy or hate him, he's been terrific over the years. Antonio Bastardo can be a dastardly number two, especially if he can lower his walk rate just a bit. Bastardo was nasty last season with only a .179 batting average on balls in play to go along with his 10.86 strikeouts per nine innings. The rest of the bullpen is not inspiring. The team has added Dontrelle Willis and Chad Qualls to go along with the promising Michael Stutes and the versatile (if not overpowering) Kyle Kendrick. The aged Jose Contreras may start the season on the disabled list.

The bullpen depth shouldn't be that much of a concern with the Phillies' rotation. The top three will give you six to eight innings every start.

The Phillies' offense is a bit of a concern. After scoring 5.06 runs per game in 2009, that figure fell to 4.77 in 2010 and fell again to 4.40 runs per game in 2011. The season will already begin with slugger, Ryan Howard, on the disabled list and despite reports that he is healing well, an Achilles tendon injury is not an easy one to recover from. Either Ty Wigginton or John Mayberry Jr. will play first until Howard returns. Both are solid batsmen so there shouldn't be a large gap in production there.

Both Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley have slipped offensively since their peaks a few years ago. Both are still terrific defensively and if at least one of them can flip a switch back in time to regain some of that lost production, it would be helpful to the Phillies' cause. Both will be 33 in 2012 and you can't expect the players they were in their prime. But both are capable of better seasons than we saw in 2011.

Placido Polanca remains anca-ed at third. Sorry. Just felt silly for a moment. Anyway, Polanca is 36 years old and while he remains an elite fielding third baseman, he hasn't been the same offensive force he was back in 2007. Plus, the injury bug has plagued him in recent seasons.

All in all, the Phillies have a tight and wonderful defensive infield with some offensive question marks. The Phillies do have to figure out who can back up the starters since they traded Wilson Valdez.

Two-thirds of the outfield is set with Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. Victorino is among the five best center fielders in the game and Pence was a fabulous pick up last season. Left field candidates include Laynce Nix, Mayberry and perennial prospect, Domonic Brown. If Mayberry doesn't start the season at first, he probably has the edge and was surprisingly good on defense in left last season. And it's hard not to like his bat.

Carlos Ruiz has become a leader from his catching position and he backed up a terrific 2010 season with a solid one in 2011. He should be a fixture behind the plate for the Phillies for years to come. Brian Schneider had a dismal season in 2011 as Ruiz's backup. But the backup catching position is probably still his to lose.

After going through the team in this exercise, it seems like the Phillies have few question marks other than age, Howard's return, left field and a backup infielder and catcher. With their rotation and experience, the team seems like a lock to win at least 90 games. You have to favor them to hold on to the division for at least another season. But as we shall see in the next couple of articles on this division, the road won't be as easy as it has been.

Cliff Lee and Fastball Velocity

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 16:01:00 +0000

Cliff Lee certainly was worth his newly-earned free agent salary last season for the Philadelphia Phillies. Lee kept his end of the bargain for the "dream" rotation that nearly overcame some of his team's offensive deficiencies but fell short of their World Series goal. Lee and Halladay in particular have become as automatic a value package as you can find anywhere. According to Fangraphs, Lee's fWAR the last four seasons: 7.2, 6.6, 7.2 and 6.7. And while he makes his rotation start like clockwork year after year, the one fact that is still a head scratcher is his velocity.

Cliff Lee pitched into his tenth season last year during his thirty-second year on earth. And despite all the wear and tear a pitcher's arm endures, especially since Lee has not missed many starts since 2007, Lee's fastball velocity continues to rise year after year. Starting in 2007, Lee's velocity (according to Pitch/FX) has had the following progression: 2007 - 89, 2008 - 90.5, 2009 - 91.1, 2010 - 91.3 and 2011 - 91.5. How is that possible? Doesn't that seem to defy logic? Along with his fastball velocity, he has had a similar rise in velocity in his cutter as well.

To think this through logically, there are two ways to improve velocity: conditioning and mechanics. Today's baseball players are highly conditioned machines. They no longer have off seasons and condition themselves year round. So Lee must be very good at keeping himself in tip-top shape. After all, the guy looks like a terrific athlete. If you compare him to say, Mark Buehrle, a pitcher who throws with the same left arm and is about the same age, Lee appears on the face of it to be better conditioned. Perhaps that is some part of Lee's constant increase while Buehrle has lost velocity.

But that comparison isn't fair to Buehrle. Who knows how hard the new Marlins' pitcher conditions himself? Heck, he might work just as hard as Cliff Lee. As sophisticated as today's conditioning knowledge has become, you have to assume that most pitchers work just as hard. So there has to be another answer. And yes, that answer has to be mechanics.

Let's take a quick look at Cliff Lee's Pitch/FX release points. We'll start with his horizontal release point over the years thanks to Brooks Baseball:

Now his vertical release point:

It seems very apparent from looking at those two maps that Cliff Lee has continually tightened his mechanics from year to year. In 2008, there was quite a bit of variation, particularly in the horizontal release point. In 2009, there was much more play in his vertical release point. But look how tight everything is in 2011! Just to have a frame of reference, we'll use Mark Buehrle again. What follows are Buehrle's release point maps. First the horizontal.

And now Buehrle's horizontal release point map:

Mark Buehrle's release point isn't nearly as clean as Cliff Lee's. Lee has seemed to clean up his mechanics from year to year and that has to account for a crisper fastball. And Lee's mechanics not only aid his velocity. Pitch/FX also shows that Lee has more vertical and horizontal movement on all of his pitches now than he had before.

Cliff Lee is simply an artist that has fine tuned his craft year after year until he can virtually repeat his delivery for optimum speed and spin. That's a beautiful thing for the Phillies and not so pretty a picture for teams that have to face him.

Roy Oswalt and Market Determination Revisited

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:45:00 +0000

Yesterday in this space, this author wrote that Roy Oswalt had earned the right to limit his market choices and to stick to his price in negotiations as a free agent. The piece was a counterpoint to another writer who stated that Oswalt "had too big a head" and can move along from the St. Louis Cardinals' feeding trough. The point was also made that Oswalt is well worth what he is asking for his services. This other writer wasn't very happy about yesterday's post and chose to rebut it by reprinting this writer's entire post and interspersing comments throughout. That's kind of rude, but at least the writer provided a link back to here. Thanks for the page views, sir.

Disagreement is fine. Enlightenment only comes from open dialogue, which is why the Freedom of Speech is so important to us as a people. Your host here certainly doesn't believe he knows all the answers. Somebody once said that wisdom begins with the knowledge that there is more unknown than known. So the name calling directed here as "noninformed ," is not overly troublesome. Without resorting to a flame war, which is way too unseemly in polite society, this author does want to make a few points in response.

The key issue is market determination. That other writer feels that Oswalt has run into a problem where the market considers his value lower than Oswalt does. That would be true enough if Oswalt had allowed a complete and open market for his services to develop and could still not find a job. Oswalt's true "problem" is that he has limited his market choices to a few teams that do not care to pay Oswalt what he wants. If Oswalt was available to any team on the market, someone surely would have given him the money is is asking.

Roy Oswalt doesn't want to pitch in Seattle or Detroit or a host of other different cities. He has narrowed his choices to just a few teams he would consider. That's not a true market determination problem. That's a personal market limitation choice that has led to a problem. This other writer also states that Oswalt's performance value (which last year stood at $11.1 million, Oswalt's lowest) doesn't matter. It's the market that matters. But performance value does matter. That's why the Phillies chose not to offer Oswalt arbitration. Arbitration would have given Oswalt the money. That's what arbitration does.

Okay, you might say that the Phillies just proved the market determination point. It only proves it as far as the Phillies were concerned. They had cheaper options in Vance Worley, etc., and have a huge and unwieldy payroll they have to worry about. Other teams may not have those options or problems. Let's look at the Cardinals as an example. On the Cardinals, only two of their pitchers' performances were more valuable than Roy Oswalt's last season: Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia. Jake Westbrook was paid $8 million and was far less valuable a pitcher. Kyle Lohse made $11.8 million and was far less valuable. On paper, Adam Wainwright is more valuable than Roy Oswalt. But let's see what happens as he returns from Tommy John surgery.

Could Roy Oswalt be a benefit to the Cardinals? Certainly. Will they choose to pay Oswalt $10 million for a season. Maybe not. We'll see. This other writer made a point that the Cardinals can't afford $10 million for 139 innings. The Cardinals are still $20 million below last year's payroll and that's with the addition of Furcal and Beltran and a bump in salary to Berkman and Garcia. With the cash from their World Series title, the savings from Pujols and La Russa, the team may well choose to incur more profit this season as is their right. But they could certainly afford Oswalt.

Roy Oswalt has made the personal choice to limit his market. That choice may lead to less income (or no income) than he wants. Any personal choice comes with inherent risks. Frankly, any team that wants to compete should sign the guy. Pitchers with his skill aren't rampant in the game. Feel free to disagree. Oswalt's problem isn't that he has a big head. He absolutely knows his value. He has simply chosen fewer teams to pay him market value rather than allowing the full marketplace to bid on his services. Time will tell if his choice costs him in the end.

BBA Linkfest - Generally Tried and True

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 14:06:00 +0000

Hey! It is Thursday again and that means another romp around the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. Since last week's installment of our weekly links, northern Maine has received more than a foot and a half inches of snow. But, heck, we are into February, the month that players report to Florida and Arizona and we can dream of spring. The worst of the winter is over (It is over in some places). If it is still cold where you live, pour a cup of coffee, sit in a warm place and click these fantastic links. Who doesn't love to read about baseball! We'll start with two of our newest members to the Alliance.

The Pop Fly Boys cover all sports but here is a great example of what we can expect from their baseball writers as they consider the Cardinals' place in the new NL Central. Welcome to the Alliance!

Another new entry is Aaron's Tasty Baseball Blog. The site features fun polls and some very good writing. Check out this weekly baseball review. Welcome to the Alliance!

Another great new entry is Niktig's Baseball Blog. Welcome to the Alliance! Check out this post on some bargain free agents still on the market.

In the pure joy department, here's a report from Grubby Glove from the A's Fan Fest held this past week. The smile says it all.

The Hall of Very Good reports on something wonderful the Brewers did for their fans. No, they didn't give Prince Fielder all the peanuts he wanted, but the team does care about its fans. Nice work, HOVG.

Theo over at Hot Corner Harbor has a great post about some multi-team Hall of Fame players coming up in the future. Great read.

The Fan loves it when Left Field makes lists and checks them twice. Here's a great post on Jorge Posada.

The Fan thinks the Major League A**holes have their tongues firmly in cheek as they compare Prince Fielder's signing to Adam Dunn.

Over at MLB Dirt, Andrew Martin has another great prospect interview. How does he DO that? It's terrific as always. And since the Fan is always tooting other's horns, check out his entry over at that site too. In the first person, even.

Two of the most popular minor league pitchers on Twitter are Michael Schlact and The Garfoose. Schlact proves why he is so popular with a guest blog over at MLB Reports. The post is getting a lot of buzz and deservedly so.

In probably the coolest post of the week, check out this game clip of Jose Bautista doing what he does best over at Old Time Family Baseball. The Fan could watch this on an endless loop for hours.

Over at The Platoon Advantage, TCM has an unhealthy relationship. It is doubted that he is alone in this particular malady. And if you have a Baseball Prospectus subscription (which you should), check out Jason's latest piece on being a spy at the A's Fan Fest.

Our friend over at The Sports Banter has been busy in real life, so he apologizes. But at least he whets our appetite for some topics to come. Can't wait!

Sully thinks we should keep an eye on the Pirates as a sleeper in 2012. Seriously? Well that would be cool. Check it out at Sully Baseball.

Steve Randel has a great report on the Caribbean Baseball Classic. Need a fix for current baseball? Follow this Through the Fence Baseball story.

When a General Chapter site promotes a downloadable book from our Cardinals Chapter, we simply have to promote that, right? Here it is from 85% Sports. Hey you Cardinal folks, if you want that great thing printed, give this Fan a holler.

Ryan Sendek over at Analysis Around the Horn let's us know what he's working on. Don't worry, Ryan, you're worth the wait.

The Ball Caps Blog lends its support to a friend who wants to be a part of MLB's Fan Cave. This Fan would do that in a heartbeat if he was still young and single.

Our friend at the former Baseball Hall of Fame has re-branded the site as Baseball Unrated. The first post at the new place is a great read on what the 2013 Hall of Fame ballot will look like.

Continuing the 2013 HOF theme, Baseballism nods Mike Piazza and anoints him as golden. Quite agree here.

Aaron over at Blogging From the Bleachers is getting excited about the baseball season and whets his appetite with his fantasy baseball selections. Great fun to read.

Over at Call to the Pen, Blaine Blontz reports on the minor league deal Carlos Guillen signed with the Seattle Mariners. It's a long shot, but if he's healthy...

Over at Che Palle! Mario Salvini celebrates Nolan Ryan's birthday. This Fan would never tire of celebrating that pitcher! The Fan wonders if Salvini has heard about the Garfoose heading to play in Italy? The Garfoose is coming, the Garfoose is coming!

Folks, Curley Bender is a terrific writer. And his Crum-Bum Beat has become a must read. Check out this offbeat post about two famous traders.

If TheNaturalMevs of Diamond Hoggers writes about Peter Gammons and Jason Heyward, this Fan is so there.

For Baseball Junkies continues their terrific series on All-Decade teams. This one features the 2000's NL version.

The Baseball Index reports and gives their take on the Cody Ross signing with the Boston Red Sox. Ross could be useful.

And finally, Griffin Phelps has a terrific interview with Trevor Bauer, who seems like a kid we can all root for. Check out the post among all the great writing over at the Golden Sombrero.

And to steal a little of Bill Ivie's shameless self-promotion, it's super cool to announce that your favorite Fan has become a featured writer over at It's About the Money, Stupid. This is a terrific honor for your guy as IIATMS is one of the country's most popular baseball sites. Check out the first post there. And thanks as always for your support of this site and all of our terrific General Chapter sites.

Oswalt Could Earn $10 Million in His Sleep

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:24:00 +0000

Americans are so fickle when it comes to labor. The citizens here talk about labor getting its due and fairness and all that. But as soon as the garbage trucks stop running, those same folks want the mayor to arrest all the waste management people. The same goes for baseball players. Most Americans would agree that baseball before the Marvin Miller days was unfair to players. Now, when those negotiated rights have been earned and a free agent tries to take advantage of those rights, he is scorned. The negative press that Roy Oswalt is receiving these days is a case in point.

Take this guy's point of view for example. According to this writer in question, Oswalt has a "fat head." Well, gosh. Oswalt must be a villain then. Excuse him for pitching for eleven years and earning the right to pick and choose where he will play and how much he wants to get paid. At least this writer in question admits that Roy Oswalt is worth the $10 million he is supposedly asking, "if he is healthy." The reality is that Roy Oswalt is worth $10 million even if he isn't healthy. Yeah, Oswalt only pitched 139 innings last season. But even so, those innings were worth $11.1 million.

The reality also is that whatever team ends up wanting to sign him will have a full opportunity to back off of any deal if Oswalt can't pass a physical. And don't worry. Nobody is going to plunk down that many clams without having their doctors go over Oswalt's back thoroughly.

So what makes Oswalt a villain? He wants to pitch not too far from where his family lives. Do you blame him? For six months, a baseball player spends half of his time away from home. That's a lot of time away from those you love, is it not? Oswalt would like to pitch for a contender. Wouldn't you? Baseball players are competitors. They want to compete at the highest level. Oswalt spent a lot of years in Houston playing for the Astros that weren't a heck of a lot of fun. Losing isn't fun no matter how much money you make.

Perhaps the biggest reason to call Oswalt a villain or a fat head is that he wants to be paid what he is worth. Who can blame him? The guy has won 159 games with a career FIP of 3.35. His career has been worth $170 million and he's made $91 million. Well, yeah, that's a lot of money and nobody is pitying him nor should be. But it's not like Oswalt is asking for a multi-year contract which he would be worth oodles of money. He's reportingly seeking a one year deal. No doubt part of that strategy is to rebuild some value for the next go round.

One of Oswalt's closest comps at his age is Mike Mussina. Mussina won 88 games after reaching the age of 34, Oswalt's 2012 age. When you know how to pitch, you know how to pitch, plain and simple. The bottom line here is that even if Oswalt can only give his new club 139 more innings, he'll be worth what he's asking. He's earned the right to make the deal that pays him what he's worth and play where he wants to play. Find another mule to kick already.

Does Cozart Rhyme With Mozart?

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 17:08:00 +0000

After winning the National League Central in 2010, the Cincinnati Reds laid an egg in 2011. While stalwarts, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce provide some continuity to the 2010 team, much of the Reds' hopes in 2012 fall on new acquisitions like Matt Latos and Ryan Madson and youngsters like Zack Cozart and Devin Mesoraco. Mesoraco has some cushion as Ryan Hanigan is a very reliable catcher. Zack Cozart, on the other hand, is counted on to seal the defense at short. It's a scary proposition. Will Cozart rhyme with Mozart this season, or will he be more Vanilla Ice?

Looking at Cozart's numbers is confusing. His stats in the minors before 2011 were pedestrian. Then suddenly he is putting balls in play all over the field and hit over .300 in Louisville and again in 38 exciting plate appearances for the big club before blowing out his non-throwing elbow in August. He had Tommy John surgery on that elbow that same month and is said to be good to go in the spring. Still, you have to wonder considering the Reds just obtained Wilson Valdez from the Phillies. Perhaps the Reds are a bit worried too.

With such a small major league sample size, can anything be said about Cozart's brief exposure to the majors? He was brilliant in the field. According to the stats, he converted every chance at shortstop into an out. That's impressive. But again, it doesn't really match his minor league history. Another concern was that in his eleven games, he never took a walk. He only walked a little over six percent of the time in the minors, so are we looking at another Yuniesky Betancourt? Time will tell.

A lot rides on Cozart's shoulders (and elbows, it seems). Shortstop is a premium position that remains without many real stars around the majors. When Clint Barmes is a good option for teams, there isn't a whole lot of talent out there. Defense is certainly the biggest key of the position and it appears that Cozart can be very good. But that's only half the battle. You also have to be able to at least hit somewhere near league average. Projections for Cozart are already all over the place for 2012. Bill James has him at, .256/.306/.404 while others have him hitting as high as .283 with an on-base percentage at .330. The latter will work. The former will be a drag.

Can we see anything else from Cozart's minuscule sample size? It's hard not to like his only four percent swinging strike percentage. Cozart makes contact. He hit ground balls twice more often than he hit the ball in the air. That's a bit troublesome combined with his only nine percent line drive rate. Again, this is all with so little samples to go by that they might all be moot points. Perhaps we just have to give the guy 500 plate appearances and see what happens.

Cozart had some power in the minors but that disappeared last year. If he hits the ball in the air, twenty percent of such contact results in a homer. That's impressive. But he doesn't hit the ball in the air often enough. The thing that is just hard to get over is that 2011 seems so much different than all of his previous performances. Is that the new Zack Cozart? Is this the player we have now? Or is the pre-2011 guy the real one? Again, we'll have to wait and see.

Fortunately, the Reds do have some fallback plans. The aforementioned Valdez is capable and if all else fails, there is always the solid glove of Paul Janish (who likely is the odd man out here). The Reds aren't much different than any team this time of year. A lot will have to go right for them to regain their 2010 mojo as a contender in 2012. If Zack Cozart can prove he is the Reds' shortstop answer for years to come in the 2012 season, that would be a huge aid to their cause.

Rangers' Infield - Three Beemers and a Dodge

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 14:23:00 +0000

These new Texas Rangers have been an amazing story the past two years. Most baseball fans through the years remember how the Rangers were always a one-dimensional team. They could always pound the ball, but they could never pitch. From 1997 through 2008 (a twelve year stretch), the Rangers gave up an average of 883 runs per game. In seven of those seasons, the pitching staff gave up more runs than the batters plated. Obviously, that's not a winning formula. The last two seasons, the Rangers have allowed only 687 and 677 runs while scoring 787 and 855 runs respectively. That's as good a reason as any for two straight World Series appearances in a row. But as we all should now know, defense plays a key role in preventing runs and few teams do it better than the Rangers. A big part of that defense is the infield, which boasts three Beemers and a Dodge.

Perhaps it is unfair to pick on Dodge. From their television commercials, they are trying hard to change their brand/quality image. The Yugo has all but disappeared, so that analogy is too obscure. But anyway, you get the idea. The Rangers boast three sparkling defenders and then there is first base. Adrian Beltre at third? One of the best ever. Elvis Andrus? The reason Michael Young is a DH. Ian Kinsler? One of the most underrated, all around players in the game. And then there is the first base gaggle of Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli (when he isn't catching) and Michael Young. The Rangers are one cog away from a beautiful wheel.

Elvis Andrus hasn't developed as expected as a hitter, but his defense more than justifies his existence. It is not mere coincidence that the Rangers started pitching better once he became the shortstop. He was the fifth (or sixth depending on which site you believe) best fielding shortstop in baseball last season. No offense to Michael Young, but once Elvis took over, the difference was night and day.

Ian Kinsler was the third best fielding second baseman in baseball last season. He wasn't rated as highly in 2010, but injuries can explain a lot of that story. But his defense in 2011 was even better than his stellar defensive season of 2009. We can safely state that if Kinsler is healthy, then he's one of the best at his position in baseball.

We all know about Adrian Beltre. The guy is a flat out magician over at third base. Despite ups and downs with his health, Beltre (according to Fangraphs) has been 152.8 runs better than average for his career. If he can continue his pace, he won't catch Brooks Robinson in that category, but he will finish a solid second. He is the best fielding third baseman of his generation.

And then you get to first base. Mitch Moreland got the bulk of the time there. He played first for 99 games and spent another 34 games in right field (due to injuries to Nelson Cruz). Baseball-reference.com gives Moreland a -1 runs lost below average, which isn't terrible. Fangraphs has him at league average for his 99 games at first. Mike Napoli played 35 games at first. B-R has him 2 runs better than average, Fangraphs at -1.5. Michael Young played 36 games at first and B-R gives him -2 runs below average and Fangraphs, -2.1. The obvious statement is that first base fielding at first base does not match the high rent district found elsewhere around the diamond.

Despite endless Google searches, "scoop" data could not be found for an individual seasons like 2011. Tango Tiger and others have done superb studies on such data for a large number of years. Basically, these studies show how many errors are saved by first basemen. But suspicions are at least aroused by the fact that Ian Kinsler made only two throwing errors in all of 2009 and none in 2010 and yet that figure jumped to six in 2011. It's possible that he air-balled all six of those throws and without the data, who knows. But let's call it suspicious.

The bottom line here is that the Rangers are one positional fielder away from having the best infield in baseball. It's a shame that Justin Smoak needed to be traded away to obtain Cliff Lee. Smoak has all the makings of a good fielding first baseman (though his numbers there went south some in 2011). While Prince Fielder may have made the Rangers' line up invincible, he wouldn't have helped in the field. So at least that's a positive. But with Mitch Moreland penciled in as the starting first baseman and Young and Napoli continuing to take their turns over there, the Rangers' infield will continue to contain three Beemers and a Dodge...or a Kia...or..oh you get the idea.

Juan Pierre - Bunt King

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 13:53:00 +0000

Juan Pierre just signed a minor league contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. That's quite a come-down for a guy who has played 318 games for the White Sox the last two seasons. The odds of Pierre making the Phillies' roster and/or seeing any significant playing time if he does, seems remote. And that's probably as it should be. Pierre earned negative value according to Fangraphs in 2011 and had zero value according to Baseball-reference.com. Even at your most optimistic, zero value in 158 games doesn't seem like much of a value proposition. And it's kind of too bad that Pierre has about as much chance of getting significant playing time as Ron Paul has of being president. Juan Pierre is a totally unique ballplayer. He is the bunt king.

The one chance Pierre has of catching on with the Phillies (or anyone else) is with his legs. The Phillies were ponderous last year and Pierre has always been fast if nothing else. You could do worse to use him as a defensive replacement late in games though his defensive ratings over the years look like a Dow Jones Index (adding further questions about such metric's worth). His arm is worthless in the outfield, but he can still cover some ground. His arm, in fact, is legendary. He makes Johnny Damon look like he has a cannon.

But again, Pierre is an oddity. He is a statistical toy. Make fun of that all you want, but it sure is interesting. He'll be missed if his playing days are over just for the joy his statistics give us. Here are some examples:

During his twelve years in Major League Baseball, Luis Castillo is the only other player to have more than 1000 games played with a lower ISO than Juan Pierre. A slugger Pierre is most certainly not.
During his twelve year career, no one has played as many games as Pierre and has struck out less often. His 5.7 strikeout percentage is the lowest in baseball during his career and among all currently active players, only Jeff Keppinger comes close.
Unfortunately, Pierre's walk rate matches his strikeout rate. 5.7 percent.
In Pierre's twelve years in the big leagues, he's led his league in caught stealing seven times! He's only been successful 72 percent of the time in his career. He's led the league in steals three times, but he is not particularly good at it.
Amazingly, Pierre has led his league in hits twice. Despite only playing twelve seasons (eleven full), he's compiled 2,020 hits. Since he's only 33, if he were to play seven more full seasons, he'd get to 3,000.

That's a pretty amazing list of fun stats, is it not? But that's not even the best one. The best statistic to ponder is Juan Pierre's bunting. Batted ball data really only goes back a few years, so we really can't compare Pierre historically. But Pierre is the bunt king of his generation. Fangraphs and B-R differ slightly on his bunt attempts with B-R giving him more, so we'll go with that for now. According to that site, Juan Pierre has had 625 bunt attempts in his career. That's almost a full season! To put that in perspective, one of out of every twelve plate appearances has ended with a bunt. That's incredible.

Of those bunt attempts, 144 have been sacrifice hits. Nobody but old managers are fond of sacrifices, but still. Of those bunt attempts, 186 have led to base hits (Fangraphs has it at 192). That's sixty plus more than the nearest guy since such statistics have been kept. Two of those bunt hits led to doubles (if you can imagine that). So, for Pierre's 625 bunt attempts, he winds up with a slash line of: .387/387/.391. When Juan Pierre bunts, he has an OPS+ of 120. Why would he ever swing?

So sure, we can all state that Juan Pierre hasn't been a very valuable player. And he's at a point in his career where baseball front offices are very aware of valuation metrics. It seems highly unlikely that Juan Pierre will ever again see significant playing time. Which is kind of sad. Because Juan Pierre has some of the goofiest numbers of any baseball player of his era. He is the contact king. He is the walkless king. He is the caught stealing king. He is the toothless king and he is the floppy arm king. But more than anything else, Juan Pierre has been the bunt king.

The Ichiro Lead Off Debate

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:44:00 +0000

Eric Wedge is talking tough about Ichiro Suzuki according to an Associated Press piece reported on ESPN.com. Wedge is quoted in the report as saying, "Ultimately it's not just about Ichiro, it's about our club and his 24 other teammates." Those are some pretty strong words. If you read between the lines there, Wedge is saying that he can't be worried about what Ichiro thinks. Does that statement also hint that what Ichiro thinks is a problem? Could be. The bigger question isn't whether Wedge has a problem or not with Ichiro's pride. The question is whether Ichiro should be the Mariners' lead off batter.

It is very easy to believe the sky is falling concerning Ichiro Suzuki. He is entering the 2012 season as a 38 year old who showed major signs that time caught up with him last year. He failed for the first time to reach 200 hits and his final slash line of, .273/.310/.337 really exacerbates the reality that Suzuki doesn't walk enough for a lead off batter if he fails to hit. The outfielder walked only 26 non-intentional times in 721 plate appearances (he was intentionally walked 13 times). His low walk rate has always been his reality (6.2 percent lifetime), but his ability to hit safely better than most humans made that somewhat acceptable. When the batting average falls to .272, the low walk rate becomes more of an issue.

And it's not as if Ichiro just had a bad half of a season in 2011. Both his first half and second half were very similar. But there is a glimmer of hope that Ichiro Suzuki could rebound a little bit. A lot of Ichiro's metrics remained static in 2011. His line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates were all within his career norms. So were his strikeouts. The only real difference was the number of his batted balls that fell safely in play. Ichiro has a career BABIP of .354. The three years prior to 2011 included these BABIP rates respectively: .334, .384, .353. Last year his BABIP was .294, easily the lowest of his career. Without knowing the quality of that contact (MPH off the bat), the assumption could be made that there is room for some bounce back.

There is this myth that the lead off position is this haven of on-base heaven in baseball. That is more wish than reality. Lead off batters in all of baseball last year had a slash line of .267/.328/.398. In 2010 it was, .264/.329/.384. Lead off batters who have a high on-base percentage are more the exception than the rule (market inefficiency?). Ichiro's average was above the average while his on-base percentage and slugging were lower than league average.

But what if he were to recover some? Three different projections systems were consulted for this post. Ichiro's projected slash lines in the three: .303/.347/.377, .291/.332/.359 and .303/.344/.382. All three of those projections see some bounce back and put Ichiro's average and on-base well above league average.

To see what Eric Wedge is looking at in the big picture, some discussion needs to take place about other lead off options the manager might have. Dustin Ackley's name comes to mind immediately. In Ackley's debut season in 2011, his on-base percentage was .348--well above Ichiro's. Ackley finished his minor league career with an on-base percentage of .381. Projections from three different systems put Ackley's on-base percentage in 2012 anywhere from .341 to .373. If Ackley can do that, he becomes just slightly more effective as a lead off batter than Ichiro's projections. Is there anyone else?

Justin Smoak has very good patience at the plate, but he's the power hitter you want in the middle of the line up. The same goes for Jesus Montero. Franklin Gutierrez has a .310 lifetime on-base percentage. That doesn't work. Mike Carp is counted on for power. Brendan Ryan doesn't hit enough.

The bottom line is that Ichiro and Ackley are the only two on the team that make sense in the line up position. They are, in fact, interchangeable in their ability to get on base. Since Ackley has more ability to get extra base hits, it seems to make more sense to bat him second behind Ichiro rather than in front of him. Perhaps Eric Wedge is trying to motivate Ichiro Suzuki. In the last season of his contract, if Ichiro wants to continue playing beyond 2012, he will have enough motivation to improve on what was a lost 2011. The Mariners should start the season with Ichiro Suzuki as their lead off batter and give it fifty games to see what happens.

BBA Link Fest - Change in General

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 16:54:00 +0000

Welcome to another Thursday link fest! Every Thursday, we take a stroll around the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, focusing on the General Chapter. What is the General Chapter? They are BBA affiliated sites that aren't specific to a single team and write whatever crosses their awesomely talented minds. Do yourself a big favor and click some of these links and read some great baseball writing. Not only will you be glad you did, but you'll have our appreciation as well. Thank you always for your support. Okay, enough intro, let's get to the links:

Change is the theme this week and if that's the case, we must start with The Platoon Advantage. Our good friends announced that once a week, their work will be featured at Baseball Prospectus. Hearty congrats to our pals as they deserve as much wide recognition as possible. And just to prove that their fine writing will also continue at the home site, here's a sample of when TCM met the commissioner and drank his beer. A subscription to BP only costs about $3.95 a month and is very much worth the cost. Now you have one more reason to get it!

Over at one of our newer member sites, Justin of BaseBlog has a fun series going recounting Sports Illustrated covers for different teams. Cool beans. So far he's done the Cardinals and the Brewers.

Speaking of change, the Tigers certainly changed their team this week. Sully over at Sully Baseball thinks the Tigers made a more sensible deal that the Angels.

One thing that never changes is that Through the Fence Baseball always has terrific content to read every week. This Fan particularly liked this post celebrating a baseball movie that actually garnered Oscar consideration.

Jake Ciely is flabbergasted by the Fielder deal. His X-Log post finds a way to get past his shock and makes some sport bet suggestions.

In this week's Fan choice for post of the week, Russ Blatt over at 85% Sports has a touching piece on his friend, Gary Carter.

Another change occurred this week that got someone overlooked because of the Fielder deal. But Sooze over at Babes Love Baseball makes sure we know that Timmy got paid.

The Fan has to feel for one of his favorite buds over at The Ball Caps Blog. First, his beloved 49ers lost their playoff game. Now he bemoans the talent drain in the National League.

If Russ Blatt hadn't touched this Fan's heartstrings, this post from FHPromos over at Baseballism on where Jorge Posada fits in among Yankee catchers through history would have been the best of the week. Terrific stuff.

Easily one of our most active sites with terrific content every single day is Call to the Pen. The Fan's favorite this week is a rally cry for the Washington Nationals written by Lew Freedman.

Over at the Crum-Bum Beat, Curly Bender has another terrific baseball-related movie moment for us. But it's not about Moneyball. Great read. He's also got a fabulous picture of Louis Tiant you simply have to see.

Mario Salvini from our Italian entry, Che Palle! has a terrific entry this week remembering Italian ball player, Vic Raschi.

Three of our favorite writers from three different General Chapter sites had a baseball show event recently that you must listen to. You can find it here over at Diamond Hoggers.

Speaking of change, is it just the Fan or did For Baseball Junkies get a new logo? If so, it looks terrific. If it's the same one as they've always had, then this Fan feels pretty stupid, but it's still a great logo. Anyway, check out their great perspective on the Fielder deal.

The Baseball Index reports on a deal the Blue Jays made for a relief pitcher. Is it just this Fan, or do the Blue Jays try to catch bullpen lightening in a bottle every season?

More great stuff from Golden Sombrero this week. More great prospect reports but this is a great article by Dee Clark on a positive way of looking at the steroid scandal.

Loic, a writer on our French affiliate, MajorBaseball.fr has reactions to the Rafael Betancourt deal.

Grubby Glove has a truly great and interesting piece this week on the 1972 Topps baseball cards. This Fan remembers buying those in his youth.

The Hall of Very Good has some of the most fascinating posts. Just this week you can read about Adam Dunn's amazing season, Jose Canseco at the AVN Awards and this post, about Heath Bell's amazing backyard.

Theo over at Hot Corner Harbor has another one of his famous quizzes this week. So much fun!

In a terrifically well-written piece, Left Field gives us a discussion on views of success and failure that you must read.

In their own off-beat style, Major League A**holes has their take on the Prince Fielder signing.

After digesting the trade for a couple of weeks, Michael Schwartze has a different look at the Pineda - Montero trade over at MLB Dirt.

The Baseball Wives reality show has gotten a lot of ink lately. But as usual, it's sometimes difficult to remember that these are real people. Jonathan Hacohen of MLB Reports helps fix that with a terrific interview with Maggie McCracken.

MTD, our favorite absurdist from Off Base Percentage is going to change his name. Why? Read this.

And finally, Old Time Family Baseball reports that Alex Cora hasn't retired after all. And check out their birthday tribute to Bob Uecker by clicking on the site's heading.

Have a great week everyone!

Why is Colby Lewis a Rotation Lock?

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 05:03:00 +0000

Almost forgotten in the "Rangers didn't get Fielder," story line which has eclipsed all other news this week, is that, yes, the Rangers signed Yu Darvish. Without thinking about it deeply, Darvish simply rolls into C.J. Wilson's vacated slot since Wilson signed with the Angels. But it's far more complicated than, "Darvish equals Wilson." The Rangers are also intent on trying Neftali Feliz in the starting rotation which gives the Rangers a bit of a nice problem with too many starting pitchers. That brings us to this post over at ESPN.com's Dallas affiliate which presented a debate by two writers there about what the Rangers should do about it. Their conclusions were a bit astounding.

One of the writers said that Alexi Ogando should go to the bullpen where he was such a force in the playoffs. The other writer posited that Ogando should be given a full chance at starting and Matt Harrison should be traded for needed parts (center field and first base). Both writers based their calls on Darvish followed by Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz (and this is the kicker) and Colby Lewis being a lock for the rotation. The swing spot was either Harrison or Ogando depending on the writer. The big question this Fan has is: Why is Colby Lewis a lock?

According to Fangraphs.com, this was the following fWAR scores by starting pitcher: Wilson (5.9), Harrison (4.2), Holland (3.6), Ogando (3.6) and Lewis (2.3). Aren't you seeing what this Fan is seeing? Baseball-reference.com has them in the same exact order though the numbers differ a little bit. Baseball Prospectus agrees with the same order. Is there any basis to bump Colby Lewis above both Ogando and Harrison?

The answer to that question depends on which statistic you believe to be the fluke number for Colby Lewis. He was wonderful in 2010 after coming back from Japan. He put up a 4.6 fWAR season. His FIP that season at 3.55 was better than his final ERA of 3.72. He struck out a healthy 8.78 batters per nine innings while only walking 2.91. Last year wasn't as good for Lewis. His FIP rose up to 4.54 and his homers per nine really spiked to 1.57 per nine after limiting them to under one in 2010. So was 2010 the fluke or the homers in 2011?

This writer doesn't believe the homers were a fluke. Why? Colby Lewis is a fly ball pitcher. His ground ball to fly ball ratios the past two seasons have been 0.84 and 0.70 respectively. Fly balls fly far in Texas. Matt Harrison, on the other hand, doesn't strike out as many batters as Lewis (6.11 to Lewis' 7.59 in 2011). But Harrison is a ground ball pitcher pitching to the best fielding infield in baseball. Harrison's ground ball to fly ball ratio the past two seasons have been 1.42 and 1.47. Doesn't that work better in Texas with that infield?

Ogando is pretty neutral in the ground ball category. His ground ball to fly ball ratio was 0.91. Everyone falls on Ogando because he collapsed a bit in the second half. But the Rangers stretched him out to 169 innings which was uncharted territory. It's only natural that he might have run out of gas. And Ogando simply has better stuff than either Harrison or Lewis and should be allowed to develop as a starter.

The left-handed angle with Matt Harrison is not a good argument. Unlikely as it seems, Harrison had more trouble with left-handed batters in 2011 than he did with right-handed batters. You would think it would be the other way around. But Lewis is even worse against left-handed batters and such batters had an .829 OPS against Lewis last season. To be fair, Colby Lewis is death to right-handed batters.

This post is no knock on Colby Lewis. The guy has been a terrific story for the Rangers since he got back from Japan. His post-season heroics are noted. And Lewis is a good guy to have around with his Japanese connection as Darvish makes the transition. But in this humble writer's opinion, the Rangers' future revolves around Darvish, Ogando, Harrison and Holland. The Rangers should be building these guys for the long run.

The wild card in all this is Feliz. Can he make the transition? Is he worth the risk? Certainly, Wilson and Ogando have paved the way and make it hard to say that Feliz can't make the transition. You have to think that if any team can pull it off, the team would be the Rangers. It simply grieves the inner geek in this writer to have the experiment happen at the expense of either Harrison or Ogando. When Wilson and Ogando were converted, there were no other options available. There are now.

One of the writers in the article linked above threw off the comment that the Rangers could use Ogando in the bullpen in 2012 and still convert him to a starter in 2013. As soon as that comment was read, the mind immediately raced to Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Oh man, don't go down that road if you can help it.

The Rangers have a nice problem on their hands with too much starting pitching. We will all be interested in how that works itself out. Feliz will get his chance. Colby Lewis is even being talked about as the Opening Day starter. This Fan just can't get away from the feeling that Lewis is the sixth best option of this rotation (giving Feliz the benefit of the doubt). And don't forget, a now healthy Scott Feldman could probably start on most teams. Look at the post season he had. This writer isn't sold on Colby Lewis and the Texas Rangers shouldn't be either. These things have a way of working themselves out so we'll just have to wait and see.

When La Russa Manages the All Star Game

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 15:37:00 +0000

The St. Louis Cardinals won the 2011 World Series and though that team's Hall of Fame manager, Tony La Russa retired immediately after, it's only fitting that he be tabbed to manage the NL All Star team in 2012. According to the linked article describing La Russa's appointment, this is the first time a retiring manager has managed an All Star Game since John McGraw did so in the 1933 classic. It's a fitting tribute and will provide a symmetry of sorts as this will be La Russa's third NL All Star manager appearance equaling the amount of times he did so as an American League manager.

The announcement could lead to some interesting results for the National League team when they play as the visiting team in Kansas City this July. Since this is La Russa's last shot at holding the reins in the dugout, expect the unexpected. What follows is a peak at some of the things you could see.

After facing two batters in the first inning, Clayton Kershaw is stunned to see La Russa on his way to the mound. "But, Skip, I only faced two batters." La Russa responds by telling the pitcher that he doesn't like the match up.
At some point in the contest, one of the NL outfield All Stars will play second base.
Before the game, La Russa will not name the NL's closer. Jonathan Papelbon will still think it should be him.
In the seventh inning, La Russa will set an All Star record for most pitching changes in an inning. The television network broadcasting the game will be delighted with the three extra commercial breaks.
With his new gig in the MLB front office, La Russa will instantly punish an umpire who makes a bad call. Don't be surprised to see one of the men in black doing push-ups on national television.
When La Russa presents the line up card to the home plate umpire before the game, the umpire will be embarrassed to tell La Russa that pitchers no longer hit in All Star Games. La Russa sees all his double switches go up in smoke and will have to rethink the eighth place in the NL line up.
At least one NL pitcher will make his only All Star Game appearances as a pinch runner.
Tony will mess with Ron Washington's mind by having a pitcher in the on deck circle. Washington will hastily make a pitching change and La Russa will cackle like a hyena.
If the game goes into extra innings, the game will have to be called because Tony will run out of players as Charlie Manuel refuses to let La Russa play Cliff Lee in left field.
Yadier Molina will catch the entire game.
Ryan Braun will be given the sign to sacrifice a runner to second. When Braun swings anyway, he'll deny seeing the sign.
Joey Votto will stew in the dugout after playing two innings while Lance Berkman plays the other seven.
Tony will intentionally walk Albert Pujols twice, Miguel Cabrera once.
Prince Fielder will not face a right-handed pitcher.
After Yu Darvish accidentally knocks down Jimmy Rollins with a pitch, La Russa will instruct his pitcher to knock down Derek Jeter. When the benches clear, La Russa will get in the pitcher's face and call him, "Yu Devil."
At least one squirrel will interrupt the game.

Hey, this will be one All Star Game we won't sleep through. Can't wait!

Betemit a Step in the Wrong Direction for O's

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 17:02:00 +0000

Wilson Betemit's bat is a mirage. There. Glad we cleared that up right in the first sentence. At least now you know the tone the rest of this piece will take. Oh, perhaps as a stopgap for a season, Betemit could be at least useful now and then. But two years with an option? Oh dear. That's not a good idea. Friends, there is a reason why the Orioles will be Betemit's seventh team in his now ten year career. He'll wear out the welcome mat before you can say, "Defense." His last name is one of the best oxymoron names in baseball. He most certainly isn't a better mitt. Is he even a betebat?

How does this signing make sense for the Orioles? The deal gives the Orioles two of the worst fielding third basemen in baseball in Betermit and Mark Reynolds. So which one plays third and which one is the designated hitter? Perhaps Reynolds can play first. But then you still have a lousy glove over at third. We'll concede that Mark Reynolds has some really good power and can give you a lot of homers. But the strikeouts choke his value. Betemit looks like a decent offensive player the last two seasons, but consider that his BABIP over the last two seasons have been .361 and .391 respectively. If Betemit hit line drives higher than the average hitter, you might accept that explanation. But his line drive percentage has been 14.8 and 19.3 in the last two seasons.

Wilson Betemit is one of those players that makes you scratch your head. How has his career lasted this long? There are four things you can do to have a long major league career:

Be a left-handed reliever
Be a utility infielder
Be a backup catcher
Actually be a good player

Betemit would fall under category number two. And yes, he can play multiple positions. But saying that, wouldn't you at least want that sort of player to be somewhat decent at doing so? Omar Vizquel he ain't. The Orioles, it seems, have been fooled by his offensive numbers the last couple of years. And granted, they look pretty good. His OPS+ the last two seasons have been 141 and 117. What's wrong with that? His OPS in high leverage situations last year was an astounding, .974. So he's a great clutch hitter, right? This writer maintains that it's a fluke. His career OPS in such high leverage situations is .794. Not bad, but it it includes last year and certainly makes last year look fluky.

Look, this writer knows that WAR isn't the be all and end all when considering players. But the stats show that Betemit is not good defensively, not good on the base paths and has compiled the grand total of 3.3 fWAR in his ten seasons and 3.7 bWAR. If you want to take a one year flier on such a player, that's okay. But a two year deal with a third year option? Are you crazy!? This Fan has been wrong before and will certainly be wrong again. But from this perch, the Orioles have to be out of their minds to make such a deal.

Say Me, Say You, Bobby Abreu

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 15:33:00 +0000

Despite rumors to the contrary last night on Twitter (And rumors went bananas last night), Bobby Abreu is still a member of the Angels and according to the wonderful website, MLB Depth Charts, Abreu is still penciled in to the Angels' starting line up as this seasons' Angels designated hitter. That could change, of course, with a trade or if the Angels decide to eat the last year of Abreu's contract. Abreu is now 37 years old and his presence along with the erstwhile, Vernon Wells, effectively blocks prospect Mike Trout from the starting line up and perhaps the opening day roster. Such is life for Bobby Abreu that his relative worth will be debated for the next couple of weeks. It won't be much different than the rest of his career.

There will come a time when Bobby Abreu retires. Perhaps it will be after this year when his contract ends. Perhaps not. But the end will come someday and when it does, there are sure to be wide discussions of his career. Some will point to his eye-popping career slash line: .293/.397/.481, good for a 129 OPS+ (according to baseball-reference.com). Those same supporters will point to Abreu's 393 stolen bases and 75 percent success rate. They could point out his 554 doubles, 58 triples and 1,412 runs scored.

But just as many will counterpoint that he only made two All Star teams in his sixteen years of play and was somewhat ineffective as an outfielder. Despite piling up great numbers with the Phillies, not many fans shed tears when he was traded to the Yankees in 2006. Nor were there many New York tears shed when that team let him walk away to the Angels after the 2008 season. And now there are grumpy Angels fans that Abreu is still a member of their team heading into 2012. It's not Abreu's fault that the Angels signed him to a contract that in hindsight was two years too long. Abreu certainly earned his keep in 2009 and 2010. But he didn't come close last year.

What makes perfect sense is that Bobby Abreu's nearest comp on baseball.reference.com is Bernie Williams. Both players had similar career numbers. Both were better offensive players than defensive players. And both cause a lot of heartburn among writers and fans as to their relative career value. Williams' defense cost him more WAR than Abreu's tally according to Fangraphs. But B-R has them much closer.

Bobby Abreu, if he remains with the Angels through the season, is not going to have a good PR season. And that's unfortunate. The Angels have painted themselves in a box with the atrocious Vernon Wells deal they took on by obtaining him from the Blue Jays. They have to play Wells to try somehow to justify what they will pay him the next couple of years. Abreu's on-base skills are much superior to Wells (in the understatement of the year). Since Wells has to play, if the Angels desire Abreu's on-base skills, he will be forever known to Angel fans as the guy who blocked Mike Trout (who everyone wants to see play in the big leagues).

And we can't leave Torii Hunter out of this discussion either. Hunter quietly (who ever talks about it?) has just as much of a dead contract as Wells. Hunter is going to make $18 million this season and there's no way he'll ever earn it. For those counting such things, that's $39 million committed to three guys who probably shouldn't be in the line up instead of Mike Trout. Hunter and Wells will play because of the money. Abreu becomes the expendable one and he might still be the better offensive player of the three. Abreu can't win no matter what he does. Either he's traded or cut, or he's reviled for blocking a prospect.

It's a fitting problem for a player that has caused so much debate in his career and will after it's over. Bobby Abreu might have been a superstar for two seasons. But he has been a very good player for his career. He is probably not a Hall of Fame player. But in a day and age of on-base mania, he's Exhibit A for how to do it.

Failure in Sports

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 12:50:00 +0000

Failure once again raised its hairy head in national sports. Both conference championships were decided by the failure of two players. Billy Cundiff yanked a chippy field goal left to end the Baltimore Ravens' season and just a few hours later, Kyle Williams fumbled a second punt--this one in overtime--which allowed the New York Giants to kick the game winning field goal. Ironically, the Giants' winning kick was the same distance as Cundiff's miss.

Failure is the dark side of sports. But failure is also the single element that defines sports. For every team that wins, another loses. On an individual level, the heroics of one man or woman is only possible by the failure of another. The recorded winner of the 500 metres speed skating even was Uwe-Jens Mey. But that race is much more known as the race Dan Jansen fell down just days after his sister had died. Jansen would fall again in the 1000 metres race.

The 1978 playoff game to settle the American League East champion pitted the New York Yankees against the Boston Red Sox on October 2, 1978 in Fenway Park. The game will forever be known for Bucky Dent's improbable three run homer. But everyone knows that pitch was thrown by Mike Torres who gets saddled by history as the failure of that game.

But he wasn't alone. The score was 5-4 heading into the bottom of the ninth. The usually reliable Goose Gossage had already given up two runs to tighten the game to its eventual score. And he was on the ropes again in the ninth. The Red Sox got two men on base but had two out. Hall of Fame player, Carl Yastrzemki came to the plate and could push the Red Sox to the post season with a hit. Yaz had already hit a homer and drove in another run with a single in the game accounting for two of the Red Sox' four runs. For Red Sox fans everywhere, Yaz failed them as he popped weakly to the foul side of third to end the game and the season for his team.

The defining poem of sports, Casey at the Bat, has its ultimate moment in the failure of Mighty Casey that sent the citizens of Mudville home unhappy. The resonance of the poem for generations was the failure. Yaz became Mighty Casey. Billy Buckner will forever be known for the Mookie Wilson grounder that went through his legs. Mitch Williams blew the save that gave Joe Carter glory and the Toronto Blue Jays their second straight World Series crown. Failure is more poignant than success and is remembered much longer. The most memorable hole of golf ever played will be Jean Van de Velde's 72nd hole in the 1999 British Open. Does anyone remember who actually won that tournament?

In no sport is failure more built into the sport than baseball. The best hitters fail sixty percent of the time. The best teams lose nearly forty percent. The best pitchers ever lost thirty percent of the time or more. And the game is only decided when the last three outs are made. Three failures end every game.

Kyle Williams and Billy Cundiff are to be pitied and not exploited. They aren't the firsts and they won't be the last. Before Cundiff, there was Gary Anderson, Scott Kaeding and of course, Scott Norwood. Yes, they failed. Someone had to do it.

Number 2,500

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 14:24:00 +0000

We Americans are a funny and stubborn people. We have this abject fascination with multiples of five or ten. That's why we fly in the face of world pressure to move to the metric system. It's also why it would take a major shift in our belief systems to move away from the dollar and go to some other form of world money. The love of fives and tens probably comes from our monetary system. When earning that daily one-hundred cents becomes so important, then it's only natural that all of our comfort level comes from five and ten. It's also why 493 homers is a bummer but 500 homers is terrific. It's why we celebrated Jim Thome and Derek Jeter in 2011. 3,000 and 600 just tickles us in all the right places.

And it's also why the last post (about Michael Morse) was number 2,499 on this site and this one is so much cooler because it's number 2,500. The writer here understands that it's an arbitrary number and yet it feels like a milestone. Two-thousand, five hundred posts. That's pretty sweet. Very few of them have been of the short variety like so many other blogs out there. This writer doesn't visit too many of those sites. If you are only going to give a paragraph or two to read, might as well go somewhere else. The posts here are rarely as long as a Joe Posnanski post, but then whose is?

This site started in 2003. The writer wrote a lot that first year and then just tinkered around for four years (life got busy) until becoming an obsession starting in 2009. Two-thousand, one-hundred and nineteen posts have come since the start of that year. It's weird going back to the beginning. The posts didn't even have headings. The first post was about David Wells. The second included immortal players like Tony Bautista, Pokey Reese and Brian Jordan. Well, Jordan was kind of cool. We've come a long way, baby.

It must have been in 2009 that the posts became mostly told in the third person. This author likes it that way. It's harder to pull off and most think it pretentious. But it goes back to journalistic underpinnings. Real journalists never wrote in the first person. Bloggers get such a bad rap and a lot of that is deserved. If we want to be taken seriously, then we need to consider ourselves as journalists first and fan-writers second. That doesn't mean that most of this writer's favorite blogs aren't written in the first person. They are. It's simply a personal choice.

A lot of gratification is taken by the growth of the site in the last year and a half. With a large circle of "friends" on Twitter and a positive association with Yardbarker, the amount of readers that have come this way is astounding. Of course, it doesn't hurt that the site is now 2,500 posts deep either. Just about every search word a baseball fan can type in Google has been covered here. Even so, it will always be a total surprise that so many people come here to read what this writer has to say. To be sure, there is much thanksgiving for those that do. So thank you.

There has been a lot of discussion on Twitter lately about "blogging" versus "writers." The issue seems to come to a head around credentials given by major league clubs. Different teams handle this new world uniquely. The Mets are very open to credentials while the Yankees are very closed. To this writer, the Yankees need to wake up and smell the coffee. Electronic writing is where reporting is going. Even beat writers and newspaper guys are bloggers. The world is a much smaller one and anybody who can type can be a star. Not that it will matter here. Credentials are not even a consideration when you write in a basement in Maine on the next to last stop on Route One before hitting Canada. The Montreal Expos used to be the closest team to this location. Boston is eight or nine hours away.

This writer's grand vision is to be scooped up by a major site. That's long been the goal. But if that doesn't happen, there will still be contentment with tens of thousands of readers each month and a topic that never gets old. Baseball is the greatest sport on earth and writing is so much fun every day. Whether looking back, or forward or at what is going on today, there is always something interesting to talk about. That's shared by the dozens of sites this author visits every day. It never gets stale.

So, yeah. 2,500. That's pretty cool. For some stupid reason, it's more cool than 2,499. Such fat round numbers cause us Americans to celebrate and look back. It's how we're wired. This Fan is no different. Thanks again for the sweet knowledge that you come here often and spend a little of your precious time. Hope we're all around to see 5,000 together.

The Cool Story of Michael Morse

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 12:59:00 +0000

Close your eyes if you will and picture Michael Morse in your head. Got it? Okay, does that look like a shortstop? No, right? But that's what he was drafted as way back in 2000 (third round by the White Sox) and that's where he played his first six years of his ten-year minor league career. The easiest thing to state in this entire piece will be that Michael Morse doesn't fit anywhere on the diamond. He was too big as a shortstop. He played some third base. He's played first. He's played in the outfield. In 2006, Morse got a cup of coffee with the Mariners. He played six different positions (if you include DH). There's no real way to hide him. But boy can he mash a baseball!

His story is fascinating. He comes from Fort Lauderdale, one of this writer's favorite places on earth. He played for the Davie, Florida high school team, one of the best Florida towns on earth. He was drafted by the White Sox, traded to the Mariners and traded to the Nationals straight up for Ryan Langerhans (how did that turn out, Seattle?). During his long wanderings around minor league baseball, he tore his labrum diving for a ball against the Angels. He tore a meniscus that cost him most of 2008. He was suspended for using PEDs. Seattle converted him away from short because they had Yuniesky Betancourt. Yeesh. And it's not like he tore it up in the minors. His lifetime slash line there was, .271/.330/.425. So where did this come from?

Oh sure, you can point to the PEDs and say that was it. But that was way back in 2005 and to be sure, his tests have been scrutinized ever since. So don't throw that accusation around. It seems that he came back with a vengeance after his lost 2008. He mashed the ball in the minors in 2009 and though he started slowly in 2010, the Nationals called him up May 16th of that year and he's been killing the ball for the Nationals ever since. He loses value with his defense and base running, but with the bat, he was terrific in 2011. He was tenth in ISO, fifteenth in wOBA, tenth in slugging, nineteenth in batting average, thirteenth in wPA and seventh in home run per fly ball percentage.

He was remarkably consistent in 2011. Morse had a .879 OPS at home and .937 on the road. He had an .886 OPS in the first half and went at a .935 clip in the second half. His OPS against left-handed pitchers was .892 and it was .915 against right-handed pitchers. He started slowly in April and finished slowly in September but was fantastic in all the in-between months. He ruined the Phillies' rotation to the tune of a 1.170 OPS. His OPS was over one against the Cardinals, Dodgers, Astros, Brewers and Rockies. Three of those teams were in the playoffs. Only nine of his thirty-one homers were pulled. Eighteen of them went to center and nine went to the opposite field. Sixty-seven of his 158 hits were for extra bases.

If there is any knock against Morse besides his fielding and base running, it has to be his plate discipline. He struck out 21.9 percent of the time (136 total) and walked only 6.3 percent of his plate appearances. He had only 31 non-intentional walks all season. But he does get hit by pitches regularly. He was hit thirteen times last season. He swung at 34.8 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. That's a lot. And that number is right in line with his career line, so it's not like he's going to change.

So where does he go from here? The Nationals just signed him to a two-year deal (avoiding arbitration) worth $10.5 million. Morse was worth $15.1 million last year alone, so that could be a steal. Three projection systems have him regressing slightly, but not by much. So projectionists are somewhat bullish on him being a force in the Nationals' line up for the future.

Michael Morse has hit 46 homers in his last 788 at bats. Home runs are back to being a premium commodity. The "Beast" has basically come out of nowhere at a later age than most. In a career that has a lot of twists and turns, it's hard to root against the guy. It will be very interesting to see if he can continue to be this good a hitter going forward. This Fan will be watching his boxscores in earnest.