The Flagrant Fan

Elmer Bliss - a record-holder of sorts for the Yankees

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 24 May 2013 16:19:00 +0000

I wrote a historical piece for It's About the Money, Stupid on Elmer Bliss, who pitched one game for the Yankees (Highlanders back then) in 1903 that still stands as a record of sorts. Check it out.

MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 24, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 24 May 2013 11:27:00 +0000

When there are only five games on the schedule, there is not much to work with and just a couple of wayward picks can sink the day. That was the case yesterday. Young, Kevin Gausman, was not terrible for the Orioles yesterday. But that team's bullpen is just awful lately and gave up eight more runs in three innings of work. Ouch. Speaking of bullpens, Ryan Dempster was not good again yesterday and gave up four runs in three innings of work. But then Clayton Mortensen and Alex Wilson gave up eight more to put that game way out of reach. And of course, waiting for Edwin Jackson to pitch a good game continues to be an exercise in futility. But hey, I did nail Joe Blanton winning his first game of the season.

Friday, weather permitting, should be back to a full schedule. The picks:

The Nationals over the Phillies: My guy, Jordan Zimmermann is on the mound tonight. The only question is whether the Nationals will put enough runs together off of Kyle Kendrick to get Zimmermann the win.
The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Yes, a rookie will be making his Major League debut for the Blue Jays. But Sean Nolin has really good numbers in the minors and the Blue Jays are killing the ball right now and should score often against Chris Tillman. This is a really tough pick. But taking the Blue Jays at home.
The Tigers over the Twins: This game might be closer than you think. Yes, the Twins are starting Samuel Deduno, but he is a big strong guy with a good arm. Anibal Sanchez should give the Tigers a quality start and Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder will do the rest.
The Braves over the Mets: Kris Medlen might find himself back in the bullpen when Brandon Beachy returns unless he can put some good outings together. Even so, he should be better than Jeremy Hefner, who goes for the Mets.
The Reds over the Cubs: I love that Scott Feldman is pitching so well for the Cubs. He has been fantastic. But this is the Reds he is facing. Bronson Arroyo goes for the hometown team.
The Indians over the Red Sox: The Red Sox' cracks are showing the past few weeks after a really good start. John Lackey has not been able to deliver quality starters and the only big question is if this will be a good Justin Masterson start or a bad one because it is either one or the other in equal measures.
The Yankees over the Bay Rays: St. Pete is usually a horror show for the Yankees and they are 5-16 there since the start of 2011. This might be the only game of this series that gives them a shot as Ramon Hernandez goes for the Rays. David Phelps goes for the Yankees. The Rays' bullpen has been a bit of a disaster thus far.
The Angels over the Royals: The Royals are not this bad. They really are not. But they are certainly in a horrible stretch. And they are catching an Angels' team that has gotten hot. Jason Vargas never fills me with giddiness. But neither does Luis Mendoza. Mike Trout is on fire.
The White Sox over the Marlins: The Marlins get an extra batter in the lineup with the DH. Insert jokes here. I do not like picking a pitcher coming off the disabled list like John Danks is right now. But against the Marlins? Yeah. Tom Koehler goes for the Fish.
The Athletics over the Astros: The A's have been somewhat lackluster and their offense is uneven and inconsistent. And still, they should beat the Astros. Tommy Milone has not been terrific. But he has talent. Erik Bedard had talent, but that was years ago.
The Pirates over the Brewers: Yeah, this is one where the "lines" might have a different outcome. But I do not care. This is my feature and I go with what I know come hell or high water. If A.J. Burnett is on, the Brewers will be shut down. It is as simple as that. Marco Estrada is a decent pitcher and is at home. But again, if Burnett is on, Estrada will not keep up. But then again, Burnett has to be on. Heh.
The Diamondbacks over the Padres: It was great to see Brandon McCarthy get his first win his last time out, his first since he was hit in the head so badly last season. But the D-Backs faithful are still itching for their team to ditch McCarthy, so we will see. Eric Stults goes for the Padres and I never get his games correctly.
The Cardinals over the Dodgers: The Mattingly death watch continues. What he said was dead on, by the way. Lance Lynn over Chris Capuano. This one should not be close unless the Cards get jet lagged.
The Mariners over the Rangers: This is my upset special of the day. Joe Saunders will have a good BABIP night and give Rangers' hitters soft oh-fers. Justin Grimm will be dinged around for three or four runs and the Mariners will steal one.

And the Game of the Day!

The Giants over the Rockies: Tyler Chatwood has a 2.66 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP. Those two are not logical and will not continue. Tim Lincecum seems to be at least competitive in most of his starts. The Giants will win this one at home.

Yesterday: 2-3

Week: 33-29

Month: 172-130

Season: 401-294

Games of the Day: 35-17

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: May 23, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 23 May 2013 11:13:00 +0000

Wednesday was a decent day. The Game of the Day feature is on a bit of a losing streak. And a couple of games were surprises. The Nationals / Giants game was fantastic, but the pick got the final tally wrong. The Rangers winning behind Ross Wolf was a complete surprise. But overall, at least it was a positive day after several not so positive days.

A comment from yesterday provides me one more opportunity to tell you what this daily post is not. This is not some competition to Vegas betting lines. In fact, this daily post is not even about betting at all. If some of you use it that way, God help you. I am not picking by odds or by what experts say. All I do is simply look at the games each day, see the pitching match-ups, see who is home, weigh how teams are playing and then make a prediction. There is no science here. If that is not your cup of tea, that is fine. But again, I thought it was a good time to take a moment to tell you what this is and what it is not.

There are only five games being played today making this the lightest MLB day since early in the season. And the five games are fraught with difficult to decipher pitching match-ups.

Thursday's picks:

The Cubs over the Pirates: I have never been a fan of Edwin Jackson. Perhaps neither have Major League GMs considering how often he has been traded in his young lifetime. But even if I have not been a fan, I know he is not as bad as he has pitched thus far. Jeanmar Gomez has had a couple of good outings and is due for some slippage.
The Orioles over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays just took two of three from the Rays. But Brandon Morrow has not looked good this season. The Orioles have not even announced their pitcher for today and I still think they will win.
The Tigers over the Twins: Rick Porcello gets no love in Detroit and he is pitching at home today. And that is enough to give this pick some pause. But even if this becomes a slugfest, the Tigers should outhit the Twins, especially with Scott Diamond on the mound.
The Red Sox over the Indians: I love how the Indians are playing and I really wanted to pick them today. But with the Red Sox at home, I simply have to go with them despite the fact that Ryan Dempster has been rocked a couple of times there this season. He will have his share of good games and today will be one of them. Zach McAllister will keep it close.

And the Game of the Day!

The Angels over the Royals: Book it. Joe Blanton is going to get his first win today. The Angels have finally gotten their offense rolling. The Royals look flat and lifeless, which is a shame. Ervin Santana coughs up some homers against his former team.

Yesterday: 9-6

Week: 31-26

Month: 170-137

Season: 399-291

Games of the Day: 34-17

Good players on bad teams - Jose Altuve

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 22 May 2013 12:05:00 +0000

I thought I would start a little series on good players that play on really bad teams. The subject has always fascinated me. The ultimate example, of course, is Steve Carlton who won a Cy Young Award in 1972 by winning 27 games on a team that lost 97 games. Just to give you an idea of how much of an anomaly Carlton was that season, he went 27-10 that year. The rest of the starters went 19-68! Carlton was rewarded for his efforts. But usually, good players on bad teams are overlooked because nobody is paying attention to teams playing so poorly. Jose Altuve is one of those good players.

Altuve is not without some notoriety. Known as the shortest player in baseball, Altuve is generously listed as 5'5" and 175 pounds on his Baseball-reference.com player page. And perhaps most know him as one of the best players on a really bad team. But I think he is still overlooked a bit. His numbers from his first two seasons in 2011 and 2012 do not blow you away. But most will not consider that he was only 21 and 22 years old during those seasons. Now in his third year, at the age of 23, he is still improving.

And despite his team's 13-33 record thus far, Altuve is certainly a bright spot. According to Fangraphs.com's leaderboard, Altuve ranks tied for sixth of the 28 qualifying second basemen in the majors. That is pretty darned good. While it is too early to really tell, one of the biggest upturns for Altuve has been his fielding.

In 2012, both B-R and Fangraphs ranked his fielding pretty poorly. B-R had him at 18 runs below average and Fangraphs at 13.4 runs below. This season, Fangraphs has him at 4.3 runs above average and B-R gives him five above. Altuve has made only one error this season, has improved his double play ratings and is showing more range.

And for a guy his size and considering that he has little support and protection, he is a very good offensive player. Altuve should easily surpass 180 hits at his current pace with an outside chance at 200. He has always had a good line drive rate and was over 20% in that category in his first two seasons. That rate is at 25% this year. He hits a lot of ground balls and that rate is up this year too. But that is not necessarily a bad thing for a small, quick guy. He has a .296 average on ground balls, which is way above the league average.

The big thing to watch for this season for Altuve is how he holds up during the season. Last year, his OPS for each month dropped every single month of the season. His OPS in the second half last year was 87 points lower than his first half. Like last year, Altuve is off to a good start. It will be interesting to see if he can hold up better than he did in his first full season a year ago.

I would not call Jose Altuve a superstar or even a great player. But he is a very good player who can do some things offensively, is playing better defense, will get his 30+ doubles, steal some bases and be an above average base runner.

Altuve is a very good player on a very bad team. That is a shame. He would get a lot more attention and be appreciated a bit more if his team did not guarantee that his efforts would be obscured by the mediocrity around him.

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 22, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 22 May 2013 11:24:00 +0000

Good golly, I feel a rant coming. Statistics will show that Miguel Gonzalez pitched a great game against the Yankees. He went seven innings, gave up two runs on five hits with no walks and five strikeouts. Great game, right? His Game Score will be around 60 or a little higher. But I watched that game. He did not have a great outing. The Yankees hit at least sixteen balls hard. I mean absolutely squared up line drives. All but a couple of them ended up in someone's glove. And why the heck did the Nationals' bullpen have to blow Strasburg's win? That really torqued me. As did the fact that of the four games that went into extra innings, three of them went the wrong way for the picks. It is unfair I tell you!

There were a couple of stupid picks thrown in there. I will be the first to admit that. But picking baseball games is impossible when luck and chance play such a big part in each and every game. Last night's picks went 7-8. They just as easily could have gone 11-4 if balls bounced just a little differently.

Rant over. There are games to pick:

The Braves over the Twins: This game illustrates exactly what I was talking about. Vance Worley and Paul Maholm pitch for their respective teams and it all depends on where those batted balls go. There will be a lot of batted balls in this one.
The Reds over the Mets: Matt Harvey will pitch brilliantly, but will give up a run. Mat Latos will pitch brilliantly and give up no runs. The Mets' bullpen will cough up another couple of runs. The Reds' bullpen shuts the Mets down. Ballgame.
The Brewers over the Dodgers: The Brewers may be a lot of things as a team, but they are always good at home. They need a good game from Wily Peralta. But the Dodgers are so inconsistent offensively that the possibility exists. I am not yet on the Hyun-Jin Ryu bandwagon.
The Athletics over the Rangers: If the A's played the Rangers for 162 games, their final record would be 160-2. The Rangers simply cannot beat these guys. This feels so much like last year, it is not even funny: Rangers build a big lead in the division but cannot beat the A's head to head and end up out of the playoffs. Jarrod Parker over inexperienced, Ross Wolf.
The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: I am still zero for Trevor Cahill this season. Pick against him and he wins. Pick for him and he loses. So this is one of those reverse picks. I think he will get his butt kicked at Coors Field, but if I picked that, he would win. So I will pick the opposite. Jorge De La Rosa goes for the Rockies.
The Giants over the Nationals: It seems obvious that Jayson Werth is missed in this lineup. Dis his contract all you want, the Nats are better when he was in there. And I think they miss Michael Morse too. Madison Bumgarner over Gio Gonzalez.
The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Another battle of the Ays. I do not like either pitcher in this one. Jeremy Hellickson has not been anywhere close to dominant. And Mark Buehrle is that antithesis of dominant. Impossible game to predict.
The Pirates over the Cubs: I really hate picking against Jeff Samardzija. I really like him. But the Cubs do not score when he pitches. Or at least, so it seems. Besides, Francisco Liriano appears to have figured life out and is throwing a lot of zeroes up there.
The Tigers over the Indians: The Indians are easily the coolest story so far this season. And Ubaldo Jimenez has been much better of late. But Justin Verlander has to be given the pick despite the fact that he has appeared very human lately.
The Yankees over the Orioles: Hiroki Kuroda seems due for a clunker. But he needs to be good in this rubber match of the series. A two-game swing is in the balance. Jason Hammel always seems to pitch the Yankees tough. Interesting game and unpredictable to call.
The Angels over the Mariners: The Angels appear poised to go on a run. The offense is gelling a bit and all they need is decent pitching. C.J. Wilson will give them that and the Angels could get all over Brandon Maurer. And here comes Mike Trout.
The Phillies over the Marlins: So much for the Marlins winning two in a row. I must have eaten some bad fish when I picked that puppy yesterday. Cliff Lee should be better than Kevin Slowey. I always want to call the latter, "Slow, Slowey, Sloweyest."
The Red Sox over the White Sox: The battle of the hoses goes on. The Red Sox had trouble with Quintana last night and Hector Santiago is a very similar pitcher. But Clay Buchholz is a very good pitcher and the pick has to go in that direction.
The Cardinals over the Padres: Tyler Lyons versus Burch Smith. Uh...What do we go by on this one? Let's see. Burch Smith has already gotten his feet wet in the majors with a few starts. He has gotten a bit bloodied. Tyler Lyons has excellent control from looking at his minor league numbers. But it has not translated to success. I love good control guys though.

And the Game of the Day!

The Royals over the Astros: James Shields is one of the most reliable pitchers around. He seems to be a logical pick over Jordan Lyles. The Royals need to score some runs for Shields though.

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 22-20 blah

Month: 161-121

Season: 390-285

Games of the Day: 34-16

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: May 21, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 21 May 2013 10:30:00 +0000

Monday's picks started out at 5-0 and I was thinking that something groovy was going on. But then the Rangers lost, Cole Hamels lost...again, the Red Sox lost, the Royals lost and the Cardinals lost. By then, the day had turned just ordinary and finished with a final tally of, 8-5. But in the grand scheme of things, with so many lives torn by those awful storms in our country, silly little game picks seem puny and meaningless. My heart goes out to all of you affected by these storms that did so much damage in property and casualties.

We are back to a full schedule as the season grinds on for another day. Here are the picks:

The Pirates over the Cubs: Matt Garza returns and makes his first start off of the disabled list. Those kinds of starts hardly ever get picked around here because the pitcher will only last five innings or so as he builds back up to full strength. Besides, Wandy Rodriguez has been pitching really well for the Pirates.
The Tigers over the Indians: The Indians have something really special going on right now. But their train is slowed down a bit by Max Scherzer throwing darts and the Tigers getting some runs against Corey Kluber.
The Yankees over the Orioles: It is almost getting to the point that I hope the regulars on the DL stay there a bit longer for the Yankees. They have become a fun team to root for with rookies and castoffs all over the field. And they are catching the Orioles here in a real flat spot. The O's losing streak hits seven as Phil Hughes bounces back from a horrible start his last time out and the Yankees hit Miguel Gonzalez.
The Rays over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays took the first battle of the Ays last night. And Alex Cobb has not been a shut down pitcher. But Cobb should yield fewer runs than the ancient Ramon Ortiz.
The Reds over the Mets: There does not seem to be much separation from Mike Leake to Jonathon Niese. Both have a WHIP close to 1.5, both have some good games and some bad. The Reds' lineup is better than the Mets' and Leake's bat makes a difference too. Gotta go with the Reds.
The Braves over the Twins: I saw a statistic the other night that only a half a dozen pitchers or so in rotations around baseball have an average against of .310 or higher and the Twins have three of them. The team's insistence on building rotations on strike throwing, BABIP pitchers is a model they have to break some day. Tim Hudson over Mike Pelfrey in this one as a strikeout-prone Braves' lineup is greatly helped by not facing strikeout pitchers.
The Marlins over the Phillies: There it is. A Marlins' two-game winning streak. Predicting it to happen is quite frightening actually. But I like the match-up of a flame-throwing Jose Fernandez against an old lineup. Tyler Cloyd was not half bad in his first start.
The Rangers over the Athletics: The A's have some special mojo against the Rangers. It is uncanny how they single-handedly have stayed in the race the last year and a quarter simply by beating the Rangers every time they play them. But they will not beat Yu Darvish if he is on and Dan Straily should not be able to keep up.
The Red Sox over the White Sox: Felix Doubront and Carlos Quintana do not have a lot of separation between them. But Doubront does have a tendency to let things rattle him. Even so, I have to go with the Red Sox here.
The Astros over the Royals: Something historic will happen today. Both the Marlins and the Astros will win their second game in a row. That will not happen often this season. The Royals are flatter than a pancake right now. Bud Norris is exceedingly talented, but often frustrating. Wade Davis is a lot like Phil Hughes and sometimes he is good and sometimes he is bad.
The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: I do not like Ian Kennedy's chances in Coors Field. But I am not sold on Jhoulys Chacin either. This should be a high scoring game with the D-backs coming out on top in the end.
The Angels over the Mariners: Even the Angels should have a fighting chance in this one as Jerome Williams should be better than Aaron Harang.
The Cardinals over the Padres: This pick did not work out that well yesterday. But Edinson Volquez does not have the bamboozle like Jason Marquis. And I cannot believe that both Shelby Miller and Adam Wainwright can both lose in San Diego.
The Nationals over the Giants: An on-paper good match-up between Stephen Strasburg against Matt Cain. My only concern with this pick is that the Nationals' offense has gone missing. This is more of a heart pick than a smart pick.

And the Game of the Day!

The Dodgers over the Brewers: Zack Greinke should beat Hiram Burgos. I hate whenever I say, "Should" though.

Yesterday: 8-5

Week: 15-12

Month: 154-113

Season: 383-277

Games of the Day: 34-15

And a very happy birthday to my beloved son, born this day 34 years ago. I love you, Bill.

MLB Game Picks - Monday: May 20, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 20 May 2013 11:27:00 +0000

What a blah day of picking! With the rain-out of the Yankees - Blue Jays game and what would have surely been a correct pick, the final tally was a .500 day. Blah. When I went to bed, I was sure the day would end up barely in the black. The Tigers had a 3-1 lead on the Rangers. But apparently, when I went to bed, all heck broke loose and the game became batting practice. And despite three homers by Miguel Cabrera, the Rangers won the slugfest. Well, that is great for the Rangers but not so good on the picks.

Earlier in the day, the Game of the Day pick, Reds, had a 2-0 lead when the ball was handed to Aroldis Chapman. "That one is in the bag," I thought. Boom. Boom. The bag had busted open and a bunch of dust fell on the floor. Closers. Everyone says they are not important. Sure they aren't. :::eyeroll:::

Today is quite a busy day in baseball despite it being a Monday. Thirteen games are scheduled (weather permitting). Here are the picks:

The Indians over the Mariners: I was really torn over this one. For one thing, Hisashi Iwakuma has been the best pitcher in the American League thus far. Second, the Indians are starting Scott Kazmir, an iffy proposition. But I like the way Kazmir has been pitching and do not think the M's will score. And the Indians have been red hot. So that is the pick.
The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Another battle of the Ays. The Rays will start Jake Odorizzi and hope that he does not stink. That was joke, if you did not get it. Odorizzi is a former first round draft pick by the Royals and was part of the big Wade Davis and James Shields trade. Odorizzi has decent minor league numbers and two major league starts to his credit (they did not go that well). I am going with R.A. Dickey.
The Yankees over the Orioles: So Freddy Garcia will have extra incentive by facing his old team. But Freddy does not have a whole lot of gas left in the tank. CC Sabathia will have an extra day of rest. Not sure if that will help or hurt him. The Orioles will be dangerous after getting whipped by the Rays all weekend.
The Reds over the Mets: Johnny Cueto is back in this one and usually, a first start back from the DL is not one I like to pick. But Cueto has done this before and usually comes back fine. Plus, the Mets start Shaun Marcum, of whom I have no faith in at all.
The Braves over the Twins: I have no idea at all what will happen in this game. Julio Teheran and Kevin Correia are so unpredictable that anything can happen. So this is a flip of the coin / go with the home team sort of game.
The Phillies over the Marlins: It is getting really, really old picking Cole Hamels to win every time just to see him lose. So he is 1-6 and is facing the 2-6 Alex Sanabia. What great fun. Do the Marlins play 162 games at home this season? It sure feels like it.
The Rangers over the Athletics: I was watching the highlights of the game last night and Adrian Beltre had four hits including two doubles. Then I laughed because the two doubles were doinks that landed perfectly and one of his singles was a slow roller that bounced through the infield somehow. Hey, they all look good in the box score. If the Rangers are not too tired from last night, they should win this one even though Josh Lindblom is starting for the injured Alexi Ogando. Lindblom was part of the Michael Young deal and has 101 relief appearances in the majors. But he is still 25 and is having a good year starting in the minors. Bartolo Colon goes for the A's.
The Red Sox over the White Sox: Jon Lester should make the difference in which foot covering wins this particular game. Dylan Axelrod goes for the White Sox.
The Royals over the Astros: What the heck has happened to the Royals' offense? It seems so unreliable. The kids that were supposed to blow up the majors have blown up themselves. I am confused. They now have some pitching and still cannot get out of their own way. Jeremy Guthrie was not treated well his last time out. But Dallas Keuchel is not among my favorites to pick.
The Dodgers over the Brewers: This one is ripe for being wrong. Clayton Kershaw got a little rest from the Dodgers. That is a bit scary. But he is the best there is and should win every game. But he does not because his team is inconsistent as heck. Then they are playing at Milwaukee where Yovani Gallardo is tough to beat.
The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Patrick Corbin is one of my favorites. But then I picked Wade Miley yesterday and he is one too. So see what good that did me. And Corbin pitching in Coors Field is dicey. But he should be better than Jon Garland.
The Cardinals over the Padres: Jason Marquis sure has had a long and mediocre career, hasn't he? Included in there were two blah years with the Cardinals. Heck, if Dave Duncan could not make you successful, there is little there to work with. Shelby Miller, on the other hand, is the bomb. Of course, you do know that ever pitcher I make fun of wins, right?

And the Game of the Day!

The Giants over the Nationals: Zach Duke!? Seriously!? The Nats are going to start Zach Duke? Obviously, I am no enamored with that choice. But the Giants a lock behind the Ryan Vogelsong that has been beat up lately? Yeah. I will still take him over Zach Duke.

Yesterday: 7-7

Week: 7-7

Month: 146-108

Season: 375-272

Games of the Day: 33-15

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: May 19, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sun, 19 May 2013 11:13:00 +0000

Four games yesterday hung in the balance until the last inning. All four went the wrong way. The Nationals wasted another Jordan Zimmermann beauty and could not score more than one run and lost in extras. A.J. Burnett left with a 2-1 lead after seven. Mark Melancon allowed Houston to tie the game in the eighth and the Astros won in extras. Those freakin' Cardinals tied the game late and the game went into extra innings. The Brewers won. That is the way the day went.

Of course, I should not gloss over the fact that some stinker picks were in there too. I had the Phillies over the Reds. That pick was only off by ten runs. I thought Scott Diamond had a chance against the Red Sox. I thought way wrong. I predicted a high scoring game with the Rockies and Giants with the Giants winning. But the Rockies were the only one of the two that went high scoring.

The bottom line was a 7-8 day, an rare incorrect Game of the Day and a bummer of a week-ender after two very good days that preceded it. Sunday cleans the slate (cliche alert!) and a new week starts.

Sunday's picks:

The Mariners over the Indians: Justin Masterson was really good against the Yankees in his last start. But he squares up against Felix Hernandez today. If the Mariners score two or three runs, they win.
The Yankees over the Blue Jays: How can you pick this game any other way? The Blue Jays are already 1-8 against the Yankees this season and today face CC Sabathia. R.A. Dickey might make it interesting but the Yankees should complete the sweep.
The Diamondbacks over the Marlins: And this pick is not because one of my favorites, Wade Miley, is pitching. It is because I think Miley will hold the Marlins scoreless or close to it to allow his teammates to score two or three runs off of poor Ricky Nolasco.
The Pirates over the Astros: What kind of uniforms are the Pirates wearing lately? Are they fatigues? They must be because their offense is invisible right now. Even so, you cannot pick the Astros on a regular basis. Lucas Harrell versus Jeff Locke.
The Braves over the Dodgers: Mike Minor does not always fill me with great confidence, but I have to go with the Braves' offense against young Matt Magill.
The Bay Rays over the Orioles: The Rays complete the series they have dominated against the Orioles with their best pitcher, Matt Moore, taking the hill today. That should be game, set and match. Chris Tillman has been pretty good, but he is not in Moore's category.
The Red Sox over the Twins: Can we just say that David Ortiz is incredible? How many times has he been left for dead only to come back and dominate? I do not care if Pedro Hernandez is doing well and is a lefty. The Red Sox have really killed off last year, haven't they? There is only one problem with this pick: John Lackey. Oh boy.
The Cardinals over the Brewers: Yeah, this pick was wrong yesterday. And yeah, John Gast is pitching and I have no idea how he will do. And yeah, Kyle Lohse could come back to haunt his old team. But you see, this is what the Cardinals do to me. They lull me to sleep and then kill my pick. It is personal at this point. I know it is.
The Cubs over the Mets: Feldman and Travis Wood have been a nice 1-2 combination lately. I bet you did not know that Wood has a 0.92 WHIP thus far after eight starts. Dillon Gee is always capable of a good game. But I think the Cubs take this one.
The White Sox over the Angels: The Angels exploded on the scoreboard yesterday. Does that mean they take off now? Are they over the hump? Time will tell. I am too skeptical to pick Jason Vargas despite his league leading change-up. I will instead pick Jake Peavy.
The Athletics over the Royals: The Royals' offense really confuses me. Sometimes they seem good. Other times, they seem to go in long stretches of coma-like trances. I do not get it. But the A's have Coco Crisp back and A.J. Griffin is tough in his home ballpark and Luis Mendoza seems like a bad idea to pick.
The Rockies over the Giants: Barry Zito has a meme of pitching a couple of great games followed by a shelling. And he was shelled last time. So this should be a good outing, right? Not in Coors Field. Juan Nicasio goes for the Rockies.
The Nationals over the Padres: Dan Haren at least seems to get run support that Strasburg and Zimmermann never get. Grrr. So will be the case today as the Nats score five or more against Andrew Cashner and company.
The Tigers over the Rangers: This has been a fun series of two pretty evenly matched teams. They have taken turns winning and today is the Tigers' turn. Doug Fister over Derek Holland. Miguel Cabrera should hit Holland if he gets pitched to.

And the Game of the Day!

The Reds over the Phillies: Homer Bailey is a power pitcher whose fastball is averaging over 93 MPH this season. Why is that important here? Because the Phillies have 347 plate appearances against power pitchers and have a combined .493 OPS. Eww. Plus, I still think Jonathan Pettibone has led a charmed life thus far.

Yesterday: 7-8

Last week: 54-41

Month: 139-101

Season: 368-265

Games of the Day: 33-14

Chris Sale is quietly terrific

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 18 May 2013 11:55:00 +0000

The Chicago White Sox' Chris Sale might be the quietest superstar in baseball. Whether it is because his team gets little national exposure or because he is not doing Head & Shoulders commercials, I do not know, but he just goes out there every fifth day and is devastating. And he keeps getting better. Sale has now started 38 games in his big league career and is 22-10 in those starts with a 2.93 ERA. Yeah, that is good. Really good.

Last night, he beat the Angels. He did not allow a run. He struck out twelve. Ho hum. As maligned as they have been this season, the Angels do have some bats. Granted, they are all not working together so far this season. But for Sale to limit them to three hits in seven and two-thirds innings is pretty terrific.

For a long time, I have been fearful for Sale. He is six feet, six inches tall and weights only 180 pounds. He looks like the wind can blow him over. He came straight out of college for the White Sox when they selected him with the thirteenth overall pick in the 2010 draft. The White Sox immediately put him in their bullpen. He was terrific there in 79 appearances between 2010 and 2011. I thought that was where he would always be.

And then the White Sox converted him to the starter role and I was fearful of how that would play out. Coming in sixth in Cy Young Award voting gives the answer. But he increased his innings from 71 in 2011 to 192 last season. How would that effect him? The answer this year is, "Stop worrying, William." He looks elastic and electric.

Of course, Sale is not throwing 95 MPH gas like he was in the bullpen. But he is still throwing in the upper 91 range. He was mostly a four-seam fastball pitcher as a reliever but is now throwing mostly two-seam fastballs when he throws hard stuff. His two-seam according to PitchF/X is already worth seven runs above average this season. And that is not even his best pitch.

In his 38 starts, Chris Sale's change-up has been worth nearly twenty runs above average. So far this season, only Doug Fister's change-up is rated higher. And over the last two seasons, only Jason Vargas' and Cole Hamels' change-ups rate higher. And those other two do not have the value in their other pitches like Sale does.

And Sale's results are not flukes. His FIP is only slightly higher at 3.18 and his xFIP, SIERA and tERA are all in the same ballpark. His walk rate is lower this season making his strikeout to walk ratio over four and better than a season ago when he was terrific.

Chris Sale is a terrific pitcher who is getting better as he goes. He may be quiet, but he must speak loudly in fantasy baseball circles. Despite being this tall beanpole, he appears to be durable and consistent. Perhaps the rest of baseball fandom will start recognizing him when he starts an All Star Game or wins a Cy Young Award. He is certainly good enough where both would not surprise me.

If you want to see what this kid can do, check out this video. Be forewarned that you will have to listen to Ken Harrelson, but it is worth it.

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: May 18, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 18 May 2013 11:15:00 +0000

Ten correct picks out of fifteen is nothing to sneeze at. But I still have to laugh at picking the Marlins to win. Heh. What a dope. The logic behind that pick was that the Marlins--as bad as they are--are still going to win 50 games this season. So you have to pick them once in a while. Yesterday was not that day.

A lot of the correct picks were sort of lucky. The Astros coughed up their game to the Pirates with two errors in the ninth and a collision in the outfield that allowed the winning run to score. The Red Sox, Indians and Nationals all won in extra innings. But hey, they all count against you when they go wrong, so I will take them all.

It is time to look at Saturday baseball, which features six day games. There should be something for everybody today. The picks:

The Cubs over the Mets: Scott Feldman has been grooving and as long as he keeps grooving and not grooving fastballs in the zone, he should win today over Jeremy Hefner, who is not having a good season. David Wright is on fire though, so watch out for him.
The Indians over the Mariners: The Indians are tied for first place in the AL Central. That seems sort of incredible. But there it is. Zach McAllister has been decent, particularly in his last three or four starts. Joe Saunders for the M's can be great or terrible depending on the day.
The Yankees over the Blue Jays: This is the Blue Jays' best chance to win a game in this series with David Phelps starting for the Yankees. But the Yankees seem to have the Jays' number thus far this season. If Phelps can keep the big boys in the yard and Brandon Morrow does not pitch well, the Yankees will win.
The White Sox over the Angels: My gosh, the Angels are in this endless funk. Albert Pujols is batting .242. Josh Hamilton is at .210. They keep insisting that Aybar is a lead-off batter. Ugh. Joe Blanton is 0-7. What are the odds of him winning? Like zero? Hector Santiago with the win.
The Phillies over the Reds: The Phillies are going to win just enough games this season to force them to keep everybody when what they really need is a trade or three to rebuild. Kyle Kendrick is a pitcher I always mock, but he always wins. So what does that tell me? The Reds are confusing and Bronson Arroyo is at the head of that class.
The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Jair Jurrjens makes his first start for the Orioles. Those situations always scare me. I picked against Ramon Hernandez (I miss Fausto) last time and he was quite good. So I will go with the Rays with Longoria in the middle of it.
The Diamondbacks over the Marlins: Man, D-back fans are totally surrealistic sometimes. Pick against their team and they take it totally personal. I am just picking games over here. One called me ignorant yesterday. Sheesh. Okay, okay, I will never pick against your team again. Brandon McCarthy over a kid named Tom Koehler.
The Twins over the Red Sox: I think I am zero for Scott Diamond this season. Pick against him and he throws a gem. Pick with him and he gets knocked out early. He has a chance if he pitches well today since Ryan Dempster is going for the Red Sox.
The Braves over the Dodgers: Los Angeles is not having much baseball fun this season is it. Between the Angels and the Dodgers, which is more disappointing? Today will not be any better as the Dodgers run Chris Capuano out there and the Braves have enough power to make that hurt. The only problem with this pick is Kris Medlen, who has not pitched well for the Braves.
The Cardinals over the Brewers: This pick sounds easy. Lance Lynn has been unbelievable. The Cardinals' offense has been on fire. Matt Holliday is quietly having a great season. It should be an easy pick. Nothing is ever easy with the Cardinals. I would suggest they walk Aramis Ramirez today. That guy loves him some Cardinals. Marco Estrada goes for the Brewers.
The Rangers over the Tigers: This is a really good series and they have split their first two games. The Rangers have to be the pick at home, though Justin Grimm is no lock by any means. Anibal Sanchez is capable of a shut down game anytime he takes the mound. Rangers at home.
The Giants over the Rockies: Tim Lincecum at Coors Field does not sound fun. But then again, neither does Tyler Chatwood. This game will be like 10-8 with the Giants coming out on top.
The Nationals over the Padres: My man! Jordan Zimmermann! Got to go with him and ride him like the horse he is. Eric Stults is totally baffling to me and I do not think I have picked one of his starts correctly.
The Royals over the Athletics: The Coliseum should keep Ervin Santana's gopher balls in the park and when he is not giving them up, he is okay. Tommy Milone can be tough at home. This game will be low scoring like last night's. Either team can win, to be honest with you.

And the Game of the Day!

The Pirates over the Astros: Wow, was last night the ultimate disaster for the Astros? What a way to lose a ballgame. A.J. Burnett will get a win and Erik Bedard will not remind anyone of the stuff he used to have.

Yesterday: 10-5

Week: 47-33

Month: 132-93

Season: 361-257 First time over the 100+ mark.

Games of the Day: 33-13

MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 17, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 17 May 2013 11:44:00 +0000

For a short schedule, Thursday was a good day. Seven of nine correct is a fine tally. But as always, it was the two that got away that get all of my attention. If you reread yesterday's version, you can even see me say that Jonathon Niese was due for an overpowering performance. And yet, I still picked against him because it was the Cardinals he was facing at home. The Mets won easily despite facing Adam Wainwright.

The other wrong pick was the Yankees. Aaron Harang was supposed to start. I predicted the Yankees would rough him up. Instead (and I never heard why), Hector Noesi got the start. He was part of the Jesus Montero deal and has an astronomical ERA as a member of the Mariners. Noesi shut down the Yankees for four and a third and then five other relievers held onto the lead while Andy Pettitte hurt his back in the fifth inning.

But again, it was a good day. And now on to Friday:

The Mets over the Cubs: The Matt Harvey show makes a stop at Wrigley and it will be an afternoon game and is must-see TV. The kid is amazing. Edwin Jackson will try to keep the Mets scoreless to at least give the game to the bullpen.
The Phillies over the Reds: The Phillies are at home and Phil Lee is having a good season with a 4-2 record. With the Phillies not playing well, few have noticed. Tony Cingrani still has not lost a game and experts are poo-pooing his fine start to his MLB career. Time will tell if they are right or not.
The Pirates over the Astros: Neither pitcher fills me with much enthusiasm. Jeanmar Gomez has pitched okay, but I still do not trust him. Jordan Lyles still sounds like the name of a country singer rather than a pitcher. The Pirates had a good series in Milwaukee. The Astros lose a DH as if their offense can afford to lose another bat.
The Indians over the Mariners: Interesting game and one that is hard to peg. The M's won two of three from the Yankees. The Indians are pitching better. Among those pitching better is Ubaldo Jimenez. But it is still hard to trust him. Brandon Maurer has had some good games. Hard one to judge.
The Orioles over the Rays: The Rays just cannot get going. And the fact that Fernando Rodney is not locking it down at the end is killing them too. When I see a guy like Rodney who was so good last year go through this, it again makes you amaze at Mariano Rivera. Rivera never had such a stretch. Jason Hammel over Jeremy Hellickson.
The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Yankees lost two more players yesterday in Andy Pettitte and Chris Stewart. Hiroki Kuroda will try to keep their ship afloat against a tough Blue Jays' lineup. Mark Buehrle is having a tough season, but he could hold the Yankees in check.
The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: The Marlins will win 50 games this season. As I have said before, the trick is to figure out which games those will be. I think this one will be one of them. Kevin Slowey can have a good BABIP game and the Marlins can squeeze a few runs out of Trevor Cahill.
The Braves over the Dodgers: Hyun-Jin Ryu has been very good. There is no doubt about that. But the Braves have the kind of right-hand hitting pop that can get to him I think. At least, that is my story and I am sticking to it. Paul Maholm goes for the Braves.
The Rangers over the Tigers: I am not feeling this as strongly as I did yesterday when Darvish was the winner as predicted and Verlander got whacked. Rick Porcello pitches well on the road. Nick Tepesch is the wild card for me. I simply have no idea how good he is or is not.
The Red Sox over the Twins: Clay Buchholz is really good. And it has nothing to do with tanning oil and rosin. The Red Sox had a huge comeback win against the Rays last night so they should be pumped. I really thought Vance Worley would be better for the Twins than he has been.
The Cardinals over the Brewers: I hate picking the Cardinals. I just do. In my mind, they should win this game as Jaime Garcia is usually good at home. But Wily Peralta is an unfamiliar pitcher to me. I have just seen his name every five days doing this every day. But I really know nothing about him.
The Giants over the Rockies: How the heck did the Rockies blow a 6-0 lead against Matt Cain, no less? Amazing. It is that kind of thing that will always keep the Rockies from contention in the end. Madison Bumgarner over Jorge De La Rosa.
The White Sox over the Angels: Glub, glub, glub go the Angels as they lose day after day. Extraordinary development. Chris Sale will not make it any easier on them today. C.J. Wilson will not be head and shoulders above Sale. Did you see what I did there?
The Royals over the Athletics: I kind of root for the Royals, just so you know. That might influence the picks a bit. But I do think that James Shields is better than Jarrod Parker so, all feelings aside, the pick should be correct.

And the Game of the Day!

The Nationals over the Padres: Burch Smith made his major league debut his last time out. It did not go well. I am not expecting much better today. Gio Gonzalez should enjoy Petco and have a good day.

Yesterday: 7-2

Week: 37-28

Month: 122-88

Season: 351-252

Games of the Day: 32-13

Who is Jean Segura and what is he doing on my leaderboard?

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 16 May 2013 13:52:00 +0000

Fangraphs.com's leaderboard is always a fascinating place. If you keep track of players from year to year, surprises show up there before they do in the national consciousness. Headley of the Padres was last year's big surprise. Recently, upon scouring the list, the name, Jean Segura, popped up. And while I should know every player in baseball since writing about the sport is what I do, Segura was an unknown to me. Who the heck is this guy and what is he doing tied for sixth among all position players in value?

One of my weak areas is keeping track of prospects. Guys like Craig Wieczorkiewicz (@mwltravelor) and Mike Schwartze (@Mike_Schwartze) as follows on Twitter help me get better at it, but it is still my weakness. As such, there was probably no way that I would have seen Jean Segura on Baseball America's top prospect list the last two years (55th and 57th). I would not have known that he was a free agent signing by the Angels way back in 2007 when he was only seventeen years old (Dominican Republic) and toiled in the minors for six seasons.

His .807 OPS in the minors is not eye-popping. But those numbers did include a good batting average, little plate patience, decent pop and good stolen base possibilities.

And I probably would not have noticed that Segura was part of the Zack Greinke trade that sent Greinke to the Angels and Segura as the best of the three players to go back to the Brewers. The Angels should have sent somebody else. Between Angels' shortstops, Harris and Aybar, they have totaled -0.3 in WAR this season. Jean Segura has already been worth 2.1 fWAR (2.2 rWAR) this season.

Thus, Jean Segura has been a bright spot in the otherwise dismal (last place) season the Brewers are having thus far in 2013. Segura's numbers are eye-popping now. His triple slash line is: .349/.392/.575 are very pretty. The slugging percentage is the most surprising. With six doubles, two triples and seven homers, Segura has already driven in eighteen runs and scored twenty-two. Add in his thirteen stolen bases out of fifteen attempts and some fantasy baseball player is probably hugging him or herself with making that selection earlier in the season.

Plus, Segura plays a prime position at shortstop and is showing above average range and above average reliability making the plays. And the best part is that he is only 23 years old.

Will Segura regress during the season? Well, sure. He is not going to hit .349. His BABIP sits currently at .373. He does not walk enough. Projections showing regression here too as thus far, his percentage of pitches swung at outside of the strike zone are down from his cups of coffee last year. I do not think his walk rate will regress as much as the projections are stating.

The power (His ISO sits at .226) has to regress. The most homers he ever hit in the minors was ten and his current seven already match his tops from the last two seasons. There is no way his home run to fly ball ratio is going to stay at the twenty percent level. But with his speed, the doubles and triple can keep coming.

Segura hits a lot of ground balls. His line drive percentage is driving his average right now at 20.3%. But his 1.88 ground ball to fly ball ratio will force the average to come down a bit if his line drive rate does not sustain itself. Of course, his speed still makes those ground balls a factor.

Jean Segura is currently the most valuable shortstop in baseball and the sixth highest position player overall. While I cannot see those placements maintaining themselves, there is no reason not to believe that Jean Segura should not finish with at least a four WAR season.

The poor Angels are scuffling along and their farm system is considered toast. Jean Segura is one that got away. From the Brewers' perspective, this is the kind of deal you make when making a trade deadline deal. Now I will know who Jean Segura is and if he plays like this, more people will know too. If he is not on the All Star ballot, write him in.

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: May 16, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 16 May 2013 12:45:00 +0000

My last night in Augusta, Maine, brought more mediocrity as the picks just barely broke .500. And it was truly a bizarre night in baseball. Cole Hamels was awful...again. David Price was terrible and hurt, which explains the terrible. The Orioles lost to the Padres and Jason Marquis shut them down. Whuh? Adam Dunn has done something to his mechanics and is killing the ball all of the sudden. Oh sure, Dunn, make my last magazine article look stupid. As predicted, Zack Greinke only lasted five innings. But the bullpen did its job and that was not predicted. The Astros beat the Tigers and Max Scherzer. I did not see that coming. I did see Hisashi Iwakuma beating the Yankees, but what the heck, Phil Hughes?

So, yes, it was a night where I was probably lucky to break just above even. But I need to get going on these picks because I need to pack up and hit the road.

Thursday's picks:

The Cardinals over the Mets: Jonathon Niese is due for a good performance. But it will not matter if he does because Adam Wainwright will be better. And by the way, I really enjoy watching Carlos Beltran hit a baseball.
The Pirates over the Brewers: See, this is the thing. Francisco Liriano has made a career the last four years of giving you hope after a good performance by then going back to being terrible. But he looks different this time. Is he really? Or am I just being suckered for the thirty-fourth time? Oh, and Hiram Burgos goes for the Brewers.
The Yankees over the Mariners: After King Felix and Iwakuma, Aaron Harang is going to look like manna from heaven. That then should give them a win as long as Andy Pettitte pitches like he did his last outing and not like the two outings before that.
The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: I do not know I picked the Rays yesterday. I had every intention of picking the Red Sox. Weird. Anyway, I am tempted to go with Alex Cobb. But the Rays have a terrible time against lefty pitching and that is what Felix Doubront is. As long as Doubront does not melt down as he is apt to do, He should win.
The Reds over the Marlins: Yes, phenom, Jose Fernandez is pitching for the Marlins. But Mat Latos is pitching for the Reds. I cannot see the Reds losing here.
The Rangers over the Tigers: What a match-up! Justin Verlander against Yu Darvish. How cool is that? Justin Verlander's velocity is still down a few ticks, but he is pitching great despite his 4-3 record. But I am going with Yu Darvish at home. Darvish versus Miguel Cabrera is going to be worth the price of admission by itself.
The Giants over the Rockies: Matt Cain has pitched eleven times at Coors Field and has held his own there with a 5-3 record and a 4.11 ERA. Not bad considering. Jhoulys Chacin is uneven and up and down and it is hard to predict what you will get from outing to outing. Cain seems the better choice.
The White Sox over the Angels: If you cannot beat them, join them. The Angels continue to spiral down. Jerome Williams has been their best pitcher. But he is due for a clunker. Adam Dunn is killing the ball and Carlos Quintana can be decent.

And the Game of the Day!

The Nationals over the Padres: This is supposed to be the guaranteed pick of the day and Stephen Strasburg is 1-5. Bryce Harper out hurts the Nats' lineup a lot. But Strasburg is the pick as Edinson Volquez is pitching better, but is due to return to form.

Yesterday: 8-7

Week: 30-26

Month: 115-86

Season: 344-250

Games of the Day: 31-13

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 15, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 15 May 2013 10:13:00 +0000

I watched the games and the picks with interest last night from my hotel room in Augusta, Maine, where I traveled yesterday for a conference. The beginning of the night really started rather brilliantly. I predicted that Barry Zito was ripe for a clunker. He was. I correctly predicted that if the Yankees could match up CC Sabathia with Felix Hernandez and make it a bullpen game, they would win. They did. I even predicted a 5-2 score for the Tigers and they won by the score of, 6-2. Pretty heady stuff. But then the rest of the night was only ordinary to finish the day at, 9-6.

Dumb picks of the day included the Mets beating the Cardinals. The Mets did not have a prayer in that game. The other was going one start too many with Jeremy Guthrie. He was not bad, really. But four solo homers did him in. And Jason Vargas did a good job limiting the Royals. The Brewers pick went twelve innings to be proven wrong. But the one that hurt the most was the Padres beating the Orioles because that was the Game of the Day.

Wednesday's picks:

The Orioles over the Padres: Which rehashed pitcher should one choose in this game? Freddy Garcia? Uhh...Jason Marquis away from Petco? Uh... Both pitchers are so ordinary that I have to go with the better offense and that is definitely Baltimore's.
The Phillies over the Indians: If I was to ask you which pitcher between Corey Kluber and Cole Hamels was 1-5, who would you guess? I would not pick Cole Hamels if I had not been following along. Pretty amazing really. He is a better pitcher than that and will show it today.
The Tigers over the Astros: I really could make the Astros the Game of the Day every day. But that would not be sporting, would it? They keep playing great teams and are just over-matched in every way. Today will not be any different as Max Scherzer will beat Dallas Keuchel.
The Twins over the White Sox: This series keeps going back and forth. I like the Twins in this one because Mike Pelfrey seems better than Dylan Axelrod. Pelfrey had a really bad start his last time out though. That is the trouble with having a rotation full of BABIP pitchers for the Twins.
The Rangers over the Athletics: Yesterday was probably the A's best chance to win and they did not. Alexi Ogando should shut them down (which does not take much these days) and allow the Rangers to score a few off of Dan Straily. The Rangers are way ahead in the AL West.
The Diamondbacks over the Braves: Ian Kennedy likes facing the other team's ace and is best in those situations. He gets Tim Hudson in this one. That will work as an ace in my book. But then again, I am blinded by my man-crush for him.
The Pirates over the Brewers: I like Wandy Rodriguez at home here. It is not that Yovani Gallardo is a chump for a match-up though. Gallardo is a consistently underrated pitcher. But I still like Wandy at home against a struggling Brewers' team.
The Mariners over the Yankees: Phil Hughes gives up a homer or two and Mr. Hisashi Iwakuma does to the Yankees what he has been doing to the rest of baseball all season.
The Giants over the Blue Jays: Ryan Vogelsong scares me. He simply has not pitched well. But Ramon Ortiz pitching for the Blue Jays? Geez. How can you pick them with that?
The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: The Red Sox have lost three straight and are 2-8 in their last ten games. Jon Lester is having a very good season. But he is up against David Price tonight. Price has not be right (yeah, there is a pun in there somewhere), but he is hard to pick against at home.
The Reds over the Marlins: Once again, like the Astros, it is hard to pick the Marlins on any given night. Oh, they will win their 55 to 60 games. But the odds are much better picking against them. Alex Sanabia is a Four-A pitcher. Mike Leake is at least a little better than that.
The Cubs over the Rockies: This was a real bad pick yesterday. But that was yesterday. The Rockies jumped all over the Cubs after a long hitting slump. But Jeff Samardzija can put those bats to sleep again if he is on. I cannot say the same thing about Jon Garland.
The Cardinals over the Mets: No, I am not going to make that same mistake twice. Shelby Miller was untouchable his last outing. Can he be nearly as good back to back? It may not matter because Shaun Marcum is simply terrible for the Mets.
The Nationals over the Dodgers: Yes, Zack Greinke is coming back to pitch this one. But he will go five innings and then what? I never like these first game back scenarios. Ross Detwiler needs to be a lot better than he was his last time out though.

And the Game of the Day!

The Royals over the Angels: Barry Enright for the Angels? No. Not good for them. Enright has never had success in the big leagues. Why he keeps getting the opportunities is beyond me. I would much rather go with Wade Davis who should be able to give up four or five runs and still win this one.

Yesterday: 9-6

Week: 22-19

Month: 107-79

Season: 336-243

Games of the Day: 30-13

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: May 14, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 14 May 2013 11:31:00 +0000

Monday started off in good shape as both ends of the Yankees - Indians double-header were called correctly. But the day only ended up with seven out of eleven correct. Only one A.J. won yesterday and I predicted both would. Picking Wade Miley and Joe Blanton to win did not work out very well. And I did not expect the Twins to totally bash the White Sox. And no, Jeff Keppinger still has not walked this season after 126 plate appearances. His batting average is .183 and his on-base percentage is .180. Incredible. Between he and Adam Dunn, they make quite a pair.

The week stands at a super blah 13-13. That needs to be fixed. Here are Tuesday's picks:

The Indians over the Phillies: There is no DH for the Indians, but they should still have enough offense. Scott Kazmir is missing a ton of bats and gets better every game. I am rooting hard for the guy. Jonathan Pettibone has been pretty good for the Phillies. Not an easy pick to start off with.
The Brewers over the Pirates: Another tough pick. Kyle Lohse will almost always keep his team in the game allowing his offense to take over. But will it? The offense has been spotty at best. Even so, it has been a better offense than the Pirates. Of course, I say that and the Pirates will explode today. Jeff Locke has been pretty good for the Pirates.
The Yankees over the Mariners: This is a big time match-up between Felix Hernandez and C.C. Sabathia. King Felix always dominates the Yankees, so it will depend on if Sabathia can match the zeroes. If he can, it becomes a bullpen game and favors the Yankees. Curtis Granderson should be back for this one.
The Blue Jays over the Giants: This has the feel of one of those Barry Zito clunkers that happen once in a while. The artificial surface and the power of Bautista and Encarnacion as right-handed batters just makes me feel that way. Of course, R.A. Dickey has to be better than he has been to make the pick come out alright.
The Tigers over the Astros: Doug Fister was not good his last time out. But the Astros do not hit well and strike out a lot. The Tigers should score a few off of Lucas Harrell and win like 5-2 or something.
The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Matt Moore has been awesome, dude. And he could give the Red Sox fits. John Lackey has looked pretty good so far with just a bad luck happening here or there. I need to go with the Rays at home.
The Reds over the Marlins: Homer Bailey should get double-digit strikeouts in this one as the big ballpark in Miami keeps his mistakes in the yard. Poor Ricky Nolasco keeps slinging it for the Marlins in a losing battle.
The Cubs over the Rockies: Don't look now, but the Cubs are on fire! And the Rockies have fallen into a serious hitting funk. Carlos Villanueva will keep the Rockies in that funk and the Cubs will club Jeff Francis.
The White Sox over the Twins: Why do I keep picking the White Sox? Am I nuts or what? In this case, I just think Jake Peavy is better than Kevin Correia. But the Twins are playing good baseball right now, so I am probably an idiot.
The Mets over the Cardinals: This is a battle of pitchers with one-syllable names. Gee. Gast. I like the symmetry there. Heck, John Gast even has two one-syllable names. We will have to call Dillon Gee, "Dil." Now we need John Buck to catch for the Mets and Tony Cruz to catch for the Cardinals and we will be right near a record for low syllable matchups. @dianagram will be all over this.
The Diamondbacks over the Braves: I will say it over and over again, but Kirk Gibson and those plucky D-backs are too stubborn. You. Need. To. Separate. Wade Miley and Patrick Corbin in the rotation. Corbin has much better stuff, but the deliveries are much too similar to give the other team the advantage to see both in a row. But Corbin still beats Julio Teheran.
The Royals over the Angels: The Angels have been like nurses in Death Race 2000. Yeah, that is a sick thought. But anyway, Jeremy Guthrie has been so good. He has to be picked. Jason Vargas? Not so much. Billy Butler was five for five yesterday.
The Rangers over the Athletics: The A's got the better of the Rangers last year and the only thing preventing the Rangers from running away with the division is the same thing happening this year. They have a chance to get off to a good start as Derek Holland is starting to pull it together and Bartolo Colon will throw 90 fastballs.
The Dodgers over the Nationals: Dan Haren looked better in his last start and Clayton Kershaw has not been a guaranteed win for the Dodgers. But the latter gives the Dodgers their best chance to win, which is sad considering how big their budget is.

And the Game of the Day!

The Orioles over the Padres: The Padres will get a DH. But who? The Orioles' offense can crush people and they might do that today against Andrew Cashner, who has been up and down. The Padres face Chris Tillman, who still confuses me.

Yesterday: 7-4

Week: 13-13

Month: 98-73

Season: 327-237

Games of the Day: 30-12

MLB Game Picks - Monday: May 13, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 13 May 2013 10:04:00 +0000

Picking baseball games is a humbling thing. I was celebrating two mornings ago to one of the best days of picking ever. And since then, the picks have gone 13-17. That's the way it goes it seems. You cannot predict that Scott Feldman would throw a gem and that the Nationals bullpen would blow the game at the same time. You cannot predict that Ryan Dempster would yield three homers and his bullpen two more. You cannot predict that Bronson Arroyo would not allow any homers in a game. It is just baseball and that is the beauty of it all.

There are eleven games on the schedule due to a make-up double-header between the Yankees and the Indians. And it is an old fashioned double-header with one game right after the other. That is kind of cool--totally difficult to predict. But cool.

Monday's picks:

The Indians over the Yankees: The first game of the double-header seems to give the Indians a slight advantage with Justin Masterson pitching at home against David Phelps. Phelps is pretty decent, but the Indians are hitting well these days and just had a big series against the Tigers.
The Yankees over the Indians: The truth is that anything can happen in these two games. Either team could sweep depending on the bullpens, the line-ups and how well young starters do in a special chance to shine. The latter is the case as Vidal Nuno gets his first start for the Yankees and Trevor Bauer goes for the Indians. This Yankees lineup is not the same patient lineup as the regulars who are all on the DL. Bauer's biggest problem is control. Can this Yankees' makeshift lineup be patient enough to wait Bauer out? How well will Nuno do? Who knows.
The Pirates over the Brewers: A.J. Burnett is pitching really, really well. But he gets no support from the Pirates when he pitches. Marco Estrada is a serviceable pitcher, just nothing spectacular. The Pirates' lineup has to help AJ out.
The Tigers over the Astros: It seems the Astros always play the best teams in the American League. That is kind of unfair with their young and inexperienced roster. Bud Norris, if he is on, gives the Astros a fighting chance. But Anibal Sanchez should get the win.
The Cubs over the Rockies: The Rockies have really hit the skids lately. The Cubs are playing decent ball. Travis Wood over Juan Nicasio.
The White Sox over the Twins: Hector Santiago is quietly putting together a good start to his season. His K/BB ratio is over three and he is striking out nearly a batter an inning. Pedro Hernandez is your typical Twins' pitcher who will need the BABIP gods to win.
The Diamondbacks over the Braves: The Braves are such an all or nothing club. They will either club you to death or strike out a dozen times. The pitching is what saved them last year and does not appear to be as strong this year. Mike Minor will try to reverse that. But I think he will be out-pitched by Wade Miley.
The Angels over the Royals: Joe Blanton is 0-6. Something has to give there. The Angels were one-hit yesterday by Chris Sale and will be frothing to hit Luis Mendoza. These are two very unpredictable teams.
The Athletics over the Rangers: The A's have fallen on hard times and are now below .500. A.J. Griffin makes the Yankees look silly but has been ordinary every other time out. Justin Grimm is still feeling his way. The Rangers have opened such a large lead in the division that the A's have to sweep to stay in the same zip code.
The Nationals over the Dodgers: The Dodgers had a good weekend at the Marlins' expense. The Nats continue to disappoint. But Jordan Zimmermann has not disappointed anyone. He is the man. Josh Beckett used to be the man. "Used to be," the key words.

And the Game of the Day!

The Cardinals over the Mets: I would really be surprised if this game did not go to the Cardinals. Lance Lynn has been blowing people away and Jeremy Hefner is just barely holding on in the majors. Allen Craig is heating up. I said I would never pick the Cards again for the Game of the Day. Ugh.

Yesterday: 6-9

Week: 6-9

Month: 91-69

Season: 320-233

Games of the Day: 29-12

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: May 12, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sun, 12 May 2013 11:46:00 +0000

After a thrilling day on Friday, I was hoping to repeat a little magic yesterday. It did not happen. The day finished one game under .500. It would have been a game over .500 if the Padres had not lost their game with two out in the ninth. Good on Evan Longoria for the homer though. There were quite a lot of surprises. The Cubs beat the Nats. Though I should not be surprised that the Nats played like crap when Stephen Strasburg pitched. It seems to happen every time. The Blue Jays beat the Red Sox despite a Clay Buchholz start. And the Indians made Justin Verlander look like a Joe Blow pitcher.

The one game that did not surprise me was the Pirates game. I saw what Francisco Liriano was doing in the minors. I saw the good control. I know that if he throws strikes, he can be real good and I did not pick him. Shame on me for that one.

Sunday's picks:

The Indians over the Tigers: Zachary Taylor McAllister has pitched very well of late. Has he turned the corner on his career and about to reach his potential? Will Rick Porcello continue to be the pitcher Tigers fans hate? Zach McAllister for the win. Plus, the Indians are hitting well as a lineup.
The Brewers over the Reds: The Brewers are going to hit Bronson Arroyo. I am pretty sure about that. The question then becomes how good Wily Peralta will be against the Reds. This is one I am torn about.
The Mets over the Pirates: If you had to pick between Matt Harvey and Jeanmar Gomez, who would you pick? Exactly. But the scary part is that the Mets' offense has been stinky and Gomez might make them pound the ball into the ground all day. I have to go with Harvey.
The Nationals over the Cubs: The last time I picked against Scott Feldman, he beat his old team pretty badly. Perhaps he will pitch well again. I would not guess that he will. But he could. Gio Gonzalez, then, has to be better than whatever Feldman does.
The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: I do not get how the meritocracy works with minor league baseball sometimes. Chad Jenkins has not had a pretty minor league career. And yet he has been consistently promoted. Last year, he got a cup of coffee with the Blue Jays and was just as ordinary as he was in the minors. And yet, he, of all pitchers in the Blue Jays' minor league system gets the call. I do not get it. Ryan Dempster with the win.
The Padres over the Bay Rays: Yeah, I saw how good this worked yesterday and decided to do it again. :::eyeroll::: But I do like Eric Stults better than Ramon Hernandez. I miss Fausto. It was so much more fun to say.
The Twins over the Orioles: Scott Diamond has been on a roll and has been killing my picks for quite some time. So I decided to look him up. The bad news is that he has only struck out 15 batters in 29+ innings of work. The good news is that he has only walked three batters. Three! That makes him the ultimate Twins pitcher! Going with him over Wei-Yin Chen.
The Yankees over the Royals: If the Royals do not get to Hiroki Kuroda early, they won't get to him at all. Whereas the Yankees can get to Ervin Santana all day.
The Rangers over the Astros: The Astros usually play a good three innings or so and then all heck breaks loose. Have you noticed that? Nick Tepesch over Jordan Lyles, who still has a great name for a romance novel.
The Cardinals over the Rockies: The pent up Rockies are going to explode against somebody. Will it be Jaime Garcia? Could be. But I cannot pick that way. Garcia is pretty tough at home. And the Cardinals should get to Jorge De La Rosa.
The Braves over the Giants: This pick does not feel great. The Braves just strikeout too much for their own good and their outfield defense has been cruddy lately. But I keep thinking Kris Medlen of last year and he is not. But I keep thinking of Tim Lincecum like 2008 and he is not.
The Dodgers over the Marlins: The Dodgers should get away with pitching Chris Capuano against the Marlins' offense. And Tom Koehler should be like a leaky faucet. Ha! I kill me.
The Athletics over the Mariners: There is no rhyme or reason to this series. Either team wins randomly and neither seems to have an edge. So all you can do is kind of try to find the pattern. And there is not a pattern. Tommy Milone over Joe Saunders.
The Phillies over the Diamondbacks: I cannot get Kyle Kendrick's success. I have never gotten it. But he just rolls along from year to year. Meanwhile, Brandon McCarthy has become an irritant to the Diamondback fans who want him jettisoned from the rotation. I still think he will come around.

And the Game of the Day!

The White Sox over the Angels: Supermodel fiance or not...nice hair or not...C.J. Wilson is just not a pitcher to count on. But Chris Sale seems like the real deal time after time. So though the Angels have won three in a row, the pick today is the White Sox.

Yesterday: 8-7

Last week: 59-34

Month: 85-60

Season: 314-224

Games of the Day: 28-12

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: May 11, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sat, 11 May 2013 11:25:00 +0000

I have never had a perfect game picking day. Going 15-0 would be like bowling a 300 or hitting a hole in one. It would be the ultimate. Yesterday's picks came about as close as I have ever gotten. There were only two incorrect picks. The Dodgers lost to the Marlins after taking a quick 3-0 lead on Jose Fernandez. But Fernandez never allowed another run and the Dodgers could not make the lead stick. Even more egregious was the 6-0 lead the Twins had on the Orioles as late as the fifth inning and a 6-3 lead after six. But the bullpen gave up six runs and blew the game. That is how close I cam to a perfect day. Man.

A day like that changes the whole complexion of the month of May, which started out really slow and instantly propelled the week into a very good one. Let's see if I can keep it going.

Saturday's picks:

The Mets over the Pirates: Jonathon Niese is not a bad pick by himself. But then the Pirates are starting Francisco Liriano, fresh from a stint in the minors. However, Liriano has looked great at Triple-A with a very high strikeout rate and a minuscule walk rate. Maybe the Pirates have found something and maybe this pick is going to look bad.
The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: It really feels like the Blue Jays have no shot in this one. Mark Buehrle has not had a single highlight game for the team and Clay Buchholz, tanning spray or no tanning spray, has simply been awesome.
The Cardinals over the Rockies: The Rockies go from Shelby Miller, who was about as untouchable as it gets last night, to Adam Wainwright who will make it seem like you can hit him, but usually cannot. Jhoulys Chacin better be very, very good for the Rockies to have a chance in this one.
The Giants over the Braves: It was sort of a blow for the Braves to have such a bad start from their ace yesterday. Paul Maholm can have a good BABIP day, but he is not an ace. Madison Bumgarner, on the other hand, is an ace despite the fact that he was roughed up a little in his last start. He will be good at home.
The Reds over the Brewers: Hiram Burgos is only the seventh Hiram to ever play in the big leagues. It is such an old fashioned name. The last Hiram in baseball? That would be Kyle Davies. Kyle was his middle name. Let's hope Burgos has a better career than that. But Hiram should be out-pitched today by Mat Latos.
The Padres over the Bay Rays: Yeah, this is a flyer. If you think Hiram is a funny name, how about Burch Smith? Smith is making his Major League debut after lighting up Double-A ball. His minors numbers show terrific control and big strikeout numbers. That is why I am taking a flyer on this one. Plus, I never feel too great about Jeremy Hellickson.
The Tigers over the Indians: Justin Verlander has not seemed as dominant this season. In fact, he has been rather quiet. And Ubaldo Jimenez has been much better of late. But seriously, there is no way you can pick the Indians here, right? It might happen, but you cannot pick it that way.
The Angels over the White Sox: Don't look now, but the Angels have won two in a row! Woo! Can they make it three? There is a chance, yeah. Jerome Williams can get hot and shut the White Sox down as they pound the ball into the ground. Or, he could be terrible and then the terrible Angels' bullpen will get involved. Life is a crap shoot. Carlos Quintana goes for the White Sox.
The Orioles over the Twins: No, I am not too keen on picking an inexperienced pitcher in Steve Johnson. But on the bright side, Johnson was a perfect 4-0 in 2012. His numbers in the minors this season show better control while maintaining his strikeout rate. I still like him better than Vance Worley who has not pitched well for the Twins.
The Royals over the Yankees: Royals fans have started hanging their heads a bit as the Royals have hit a rough patch. But those rough patches will not last as long this year with better pitching in the rotation. James Shields is a big time pitcher and he can do well against this rag-tag Yankees lineup. Andy Pettitte has had cutter troubles his last couple of outings and has been banged around a bit.
The Rangers over the Astros: Nelson Cruz is hitting bombs again and Erik Bedard is quite capable of throwing bombs. Yu Darvish should be the difference in this one.
The Phillies over the Diamondbacks: Cliff Lee is no longer an elite pitcher. But he is still capable of putting up zeroes and having a good game. Him pitching seems to give the Phillies their best chance to win. Trevor Cahill has been better of late, but he is not as good as Cliff Lee.
The Dodgers over the Marlins: Gosh, the Dodgers sure have been disappointing. Their gazillion-dollar budget is falling flatter than a pancake. But it has not been the fault of Hyun-Jin Ryu who has pitched well for them. I like his chances better than Kevin Slowey's.
The Mariners over the Athletics: The A's have gone on a bad streak and give the Mariners a chance in this one. A lot will depend on how good Brandon Maurer is today. Maurer has had good games and bad games, so is hard to predict. Jarrod Parker has not had any good days.

And the Game of the Day!

The Nationals over the Cubs: The good news is that Edwin Jackson will not have to move every season like he has been and has a home for three seasons. The bad news is the Cubs fans will have to sit through his starts for those three seasons. Jackson is 0-5 and has pitched badly. Is he capable of a good game? Certainly. Will today be that day? Well...Stephen Strasburg is pitching and the Nats never score for him.

Yesterday: 13-2

Week: 52-26

Month: 78-52

Season: 307-216

Games of the Day: 28-11

MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 10, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Fri, 10 May 2013 11:48:00 +0000

Thursday was a pretty good day. I did not expect the Mets to win. Ryan Vogelsong was winning and then suddenly blew up for the Giants. Dan Haren was not great for the Nationals, but he was better than Doug Fister was. But other than those three picks, all went well. After a two-game slide, the Game of the Day feature came back with a correct pick. After a really tough start, May is starting to look better. All is well with the world.

The coolest pick of the day was predicting that Mark Reynolds would hit a bomb against Bartolo Colon. Here is what he did.

A nice full schedule tonight if the weather cooperates. Here are the picks:

The Nationals over the Cubs: Both Jeff Samardzija and Ross Detwiler have pitched really well this season and yet are a combined 2-7. In fact, despite his 1-4 record, Samardzija has been one of the best pitchers in the National League. But the pick still has to go to the Nationals because Detwiler is a lefty and the Cubs have a whopping .270 on-base percentage against left-handed starters.
The Tigers over the Indians: The Indians have played much better baseball in the last two weeks. But I cannot see them doing much against Max Scherzer who is mowing batters down right and left. Corey Kluber did not have a good outing his last time out. Remember to say his name three times with the Muppets' Chef voice.
The Reds over the Brewers: I like Yovani Gallardo as a pitcher. But not at the Great American Ballpark. Many experts do not believe in Tony Cingrani's hot start as a big league pitcher. But he is the pick just the same.
The Pirates over the Mets: Let's try this again. It did not work out so well last night. I just cannot pick the Mets when Shaun Marcum is pitching. Wandy Rodriguez will again neutralize Lucas Duda and Ike Davis.
The Bay Rays over the Padres: This is a tough one. Edinson Volquez has actually looked quite good lately. I still like Alex Cobb for the Rays. The Rays' bullpen has frayed early on. Both teams are offensively challenged to a degree. Tough one.
The Angels over the White Sox: This is easily the hardest pick of the season. Both teams are scuffling. The Angels have not even announced who will pitch tonight. Perhaps even they do not know. Dylan Axelrod is scheduled for the White Sox, but a TBO might be better there. Ouch. That was not nice of me to say. The Angels because of their lineup.
The Twins over the Orioles: This is the upset pick of the day. I like the way Mike Pelfrey is throwing and the Twins are playing much better defense this season than last. Jason Hammel is 5-1 for the Orioles and I just do not get it. I think I am totally blind to him.
The Yankees over the Royals: There was a time when I thought Phil Hughes and Wade Davis were the same pitcher. In fact, I even asked if anyone had ever seen them at the same time to prove they were different people. Well, tonight will prove once and for all to me that they are different people because they will face each other. I love the way Phil Hughes is throwing lately.
The Rangers over the Astros: I have no confidence at all in Dallas Keuchel who is making his first start. He has simply never shown he can get big league hitters out. Alexi Ogando, on the other hand, can get big league hitters out. The Astros only have a few of those.
The Cardinals over the Rockies: I just wrote about Jon Garland for the next issue of Big Leagues Magazine, so I am hoping Garland pitches well long enough for the article to be interesting. Heh. But this is a serious test for him facing a much better lineup by the Cardinals. Besides, I think Shelby Miller would have won anyway.
The Diamondbacks over the Phillies: Tyler Cloyd has good minor league numbers over six seasons in the Phillies farm system. But has not yet translated that to the majors. And his season this year at Triple-A seemed shaky. Ian Kennedy is up and down in the first halves of his season and then finishes strong.
The Dodgers over the Marlins: A really tough pick! Jose Fernandez was brilliant his last time out and should benefit pitching in spacious Dodgers Stadium. But you never know with young pitchers from outing to outing. Matt Magill has a big time arm and misses a lot of bats. But he walks too many people. This one is really hard to judge.
The Mariners over the Athletics: Hisashi Iwakuma is my go-to guy. He rarely steers me wrong. But Dan Straily has looked impressive at times too. Neither team is hitting well. I have to go with Iwakuma.
The Giants over the Braves: Matt Cain finally looked like Matt Cain in his last outing. He faces the Braves' great Tim Hudson. So it should be a low-scoring, great game. Just the kind of game the Giants always win.

And the Game of the Day!

The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are going with the ancient Ramon Ortiz. Seriously! Jon Lester should win this one easily. But how many times has that statement bit me in the butt?

Yesterday: 7-3

Week: 39-24

Month: 65-50

Season: 294-214

Games of the Day: 27-11

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: May 9, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Thu, 09 May 2013 11:27:00 +0000

Yesterday's pick started off 8-0 and I was like, whoa. I was thinking that the day could be historic. But then the Red Sox could not get any Twins out. And somehow, the Yankees beat the Rockies. Then I stupidly picked the Mets and the Brewers to win. And then in the last game of the night, the Dodgers--the Game of the Day featuring Clayton Kershaw--lost. And there was no history. Just a decent day. Baseball is like that.

But how about my guy, Jordan Zimmermann! Is he the bomb or what? Love that guy. I did feel bad for old friend, A.J. Burnett, even though that pick was correct. He pitched a heck of a game. Felix Hernandez was not really better. He just gave up one less run. And the Giants are amazing. They simply win those late and close games better than anyone in baseball. Amazing.

Angel Hernandez made sure the Cleveland pick came in a winner, but the A's got jobbed. How can you get a replay call wrong? Unbelievable. And how is one umpire always in the center of such things? Why does baseball have no choice but to keep really bad umpires? Unbelievable.

Thursday's picks:

The Indians over the Athletics: I feel a Mark Reynolds bomb against Bartolo Colon. Colon will give up three or so runs. The pick, as always, will revolve around the other pitcher. Scott Kazmir won his last start. Maybe that, in itself, was too improbable to pick it to happen again.
The Yankees over the Rockies: The Yankees have scored three runs in eighteen innings at Coors Field. That is embarrassing. But that should be addressed today against the soft noodles of Jeff Francis. CC Sabathia goes for the Yankees. Sabathia loves to hit too.
The Tigers over the Nationals: Dan Haren will look mighty appetizing to the Tigers after facing Zimmermann yesterday. And Doug Fister will keep finding ways to get batters out.
The Royals over the Orioles: I am very hesitant on this pick. Jeremy Guthrie is due for a bad game and after pitching five tough seasons for the Orioles, this might be the one. On the other hand, if he can keep pitching well, the Royals should be able to get to Freddy Garcia. This is a tough one.
The Twins over the Red Sox: Kevin Correia has been surprisingly effective for the Twins. He hardly ever walks anyone. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have forgotten how to pitch this last week and John Lackey is not loved at Fenway Park. If the Twins get to Lackey, it has to be early. Again, not an easy pick.
The Pirates over the Mets: I still feel like Jeff Locke's success to this point is a mirage. He does not strike guys out and walks a lot of guys. So the BABIP gods will get to him eventually. But he does pose problems for the Mets with Duda and Davis being left-handed hitters. And Dillon Gee has not been very good for the Mets thus far.
The Angels over the Astros: Gosh, I am torn over this one. Even a team struggling as much as the Angels has to win a game some time. Lucas Harrell is decent for the Astros and Jason Vargas has not fooled anyone this season. But the Angels are the pick. Heaven help me.
The Diamondbacks over the Phillies: Maybe there is something to this grit thing. The D-backs are playing well. I love Patrick Corbin a lot as a pitcher and he will be especially tough on the Phillies' lefties. Cole Hamels could shut the D-backs down. He was, after all, my Cy Young Award pick for this season.
The Giants over the Braves: This is as much a pick against Julio Teheran as it is a pick for the Giants. Ryan Vogelsong has struggled but he has a better chance of winning at home than Teheran does of getting past Posey and the Panda.

And the Game of the Day!

The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: If this was last year's R.A. Dickey, this would be a tougher pick. But David Price has to be a better bet than Dickey at this point. Price has not gotten off to a great start, but he won his first game of the season his last time out.

Yesterday: 10-5

Week: 32-21

Month: 58-47

Season: 287-211

Games of the Day: 26-11

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 8, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Wed, 08 May 2013 10:39:00 +0000

The day started so well, but like the Atlanta Braves, could not finish well. Too soon? Probably. But anyway, the pick started the evening yesterday at 6-1 with only the Twins messing up the party as Scott Diamond shut down the Red Sox. The big inning for the Twins started on two straight errors by third base replacement, Pedro Ciriaco. Ouch. But the rest of the day limped in at 3-4 and I will never pick the Cardinals as the Game of the Day again. Stupid Cardinals.

Of course, the 9-5 day saw yet another postponed game but benefited by a couple of major blown saves. The Braves and Rays have blown an incredible number of runs in the late innings in the last few days. Elsewhere, Matt Harvey was spectacular but got a no decision as the Mets could not score a run until the tenth inning. And all prayers and thoughts go to J.A. Happ who was struck in the head with a line drive and sent to the hospital.

Wednesday's picks:

The Braves over the Reds: The Braves will score enough runs off of Mike Leake to not have to worry about closing the game. The only worry here is whether Mike Minor will be good enough to hold back the Reds' offense.
The Mariners over the Pirates: I hate to pick against A.J. Burnett (I like him, so what?), but the pick has to go to Felix Hernandez even though he will have to bat in this game. The King would probably like that anyway.
The Cardinals over the Cubs: Freakin' Cardinals. It is the Cubs here, guys. Jake Westbrook goes against Carlos Villanueva, who is actually pretty good. Oh brother.
The Padres over the Marlins: Ricky Nolasco should pitch well in Petco. But the Marlins will beat the ball into the ground all day against Jason Marquis who has a 1.93 ground ball to fly ball ratio. That is almost as high as Ichiro.
The Giants over the Phillies: Who knows what Barry Zito will do. And I hate picking against Jonathan Pettibone. But that is the pick.
The Nationals over the Tigers: These two teams will try to get the game in today. The pitching match-up is the same. Jordan Zimmermann over Anibal Sanchez.
The Orioles over the Royals: I think the Orioles' offense will overwhelm Luis Mendoza and then the only question is what kind of outing will Chris Tillman have? We will have to find out together.
The Indians over the Athletics: A.J. Griffin sure looked studly against the Yankees last week with his pitching and his long, blond locks flying. But yeah, at this point, the Indians have a better offense than the Yankees and Justin Masterson is capable of shutting down the A's who are scuffling at the moment.
The Mets over the White Sox: Normally, I would pick Jake Peavy all the time in this game, but his health has become a question. Jeremy Hefner is not endearing to pick either. Neither team has much of an offense. Oh boy.
The Red Sox over the Twins: This is Allen Webster's second start? How did I miss the first one? When did that happen? Judging from the outcome, he pitched well. Pedro Hernandez has struck out 3.92 batters per nine innings. That is a tough way to pitch against the Red Sox.
The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: The battle of the Ays has gone all the Blue Jays' way thus far. But Matt Moore is a different kettle of fish for the Blue Jays. He should strike out a bunch of Jays and hope he can keep Bautista and Encarnacion in the park. The Jays give the start to Ricky Romero with a hope and a prayer.
The Astros over the Angels: Okay, why the heck not. Geez, these Angels. What is up there? Bud Norris rarely seems to harness his talent. But the Astros should be able to score a few off of Joe Blanton who is 0-5 so far. Ugh.
The Brewers over the Rangers: The Rangers are in a funk lately. And Kyle Lohse is a lot better than people think. The guy knows how to pitch. Derek Holland was much better his last time out though, so this pick might blow up if it gets to the Brewers' bullpen.
The Rockies over the Yankees: Juan Nicasio knows how to pitch at Coors. David Phelps relies on movement that will not happen there. This could get ugly for the Yankees as some of their early Cinderellas are turning into pumpkins.

And the Game of the Day!

The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: The D-backs have had an exciting series and I really like Wade Miley. But Clayton Kershaw is a difference maker and you have to pick him at home.

Yesterday: 9-5

Week: 22-16

Month: 47-42

Season: 277-206

Games of the Day: 26-10 Freakin' Cardianals...

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: May 7, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Tue, 07 May 2013 11:32:00 +0000

May continues to be a struggle for the picks. I had a pretty good day going and then both games on the West Coast involving the Dodgers and Giants both went awry. I did not expect Madison Bumgarner to give up five runs to the Phillies. And I should have known better than to pick Chris Capuano. Earlier in the day, Scott Feldman exacted revenge on his old Rangers team and beat them handily. And next time, it would be a good idea for the Royals to let James Shields finish his own shutouts instead of letting the bullpen blow the game for him.

About the only thing going really well is the Game of the Day feature which is now 26-9 for the season.

We are back to a full schedule today, so let's get to Tuesday's picks:

The Nationals over the Tigers: This is a fun match-up but hard to pick. I have to go with my man, Jordan Zimmermann to out-duel Anibal Sanchez. Both pitchers have been terrific this season but Zimmermann has been lights out. Plus, the Tigers are in an NL park and lose a bat in Victor Martinez (not that Martinez is doing much).
The Orioles over the Royals: While I am not much feeling Wei-Yin Chen as much as last year, I think the Orioles will hit a couple of homers off of Ervin Santana and are tough to beat at home.
The Indians over the Athletics: The Indians are the most improved team in the last couple of weeks. The A's are tough too so this will be interesting. It comes down to whether Tommy Milone or Zach McAllister pitches better.
The Pirates over the Mariners: Yet another American League team losing its DH for a series. And the Mariners cannot afford to lose bats. The Pirates still are not hitting well, but if James McDonald has a good night, he should be better than Aaron Harang a-dang-dang.
The Reds over the Braves: The Braves struck first in this series and tonight features a couple of pitchers that have been disappointing thus far this season. Which one will step up tonight? I will go with Homer Bailey for his pure strikeout stuff. Kris Medlen goes for the Braves.
The Mets over the White Sox: This will be a low scoring game. Matt Harvey will strike out his share of Sox batters and Hector Santiago's lefty slinging could defeat most of the Mets' lineup. Look for David Wright to be the difference.
The Red Sox over the Twins: Ryan Dempster has been up and down for the Red Sox. When he gets hit, he gets hit hard. But he should be okay against the Twins' lineup and the Red Sox should hit Scott Diamond.
The Blue Jays over the Rays: I was correct in picking the Blue Jays yesterday even though it took a Herculean comeback to do it. For the Rays, Ramon Hernandez is simply a stop-gap starter until they decide to pull a young kid from the minors. Now that he is no longer invincible, can Fernando Rodney straighten out his hat please. J.A. Happ goes for the Jays.
The Angels over the Astros: Doesn't Jordan Lyles sound like a soap opera name? There will not be much drama in this one as C.J. Wilson should have no problem putting up a W.
The Rangers over the Brewers: There are four interleague series this week and all four cost the AL a DH. The Rangers should still have enough offense to do some damage against Wily Peralta. The rest will depend on how good young Justin Grimm will be.
The Rockies over the Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda has pitched four times in Coors Field and has an ERA over eight there. The Yankees' offense cannot afford to lose a bat. Jorge De La Rosa should win this game.
The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: Between Brandon McCarthy and Josh Beckett, the two pitchers are a combined 0-7. One of them has to get off the schnide thought. That is unless it becomes a bullpen game and the D-backs have the advantage there too.
The Padres over the Marlins: I am still zero for Eric Stults this season. Maybe tonight will fix that. He gets a weak team and the Padres should be able to score a few off of Alex Sanabia.
The Giants over the Phillies: Tim Lincecum is about as unpredictable as a pitcher gets. The Phillies present a poor-hitting lineup and could give Lincecum the advantage here at home. Kyle Kendrick is surprisingly good though for a guy that has little stuff.

And the Game of the Day!

The Cardinals over the Cubs: This is a series the Cards should win. But will they? Well, tonight should be a good start as Lance Lynn is off to a flying start. If he pounds the strike zone, he should do well again tonight. Travis Wood should yield four runs or so.

Yesterday: 5-4

Week: 13-11

Month: 38-37

Season: 268-201

Games of the Day: 26-9

Is the return of Brian McCann good news for the Braves?

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 06 May 2013 11:29:00 +0000

The Atlanta Braves sit on top of the National League East with an impressive 18-12 record. They have a +30 run differential and are hitting the ball pretty well. Part of that hitting excellence has been the catching corp of Gerald Laird and Evan Gattis who have hit for a combined .864 OPS. But the Braves now have to make a tough decision because Brian McCann, their nearly forgotten former All Star catcher returns from the disabled list.

I would hate to lose either Laird or Gattis at this point. When Gattis plays, the Braves get good defense, good power with the bat and a 30% rate of throwing out potential base steal attempts. Gattis' one weakness is his lack of patience at the plate and has only walked six times.

Laird, on the other hand has not yet hit for power but has been an on-base machine for the Braves when he plays. Laird is not a great defensive catcher and has only thrown out one base steal attempt in ten tries.

So who should go to accommodate McCann? And should McCann automatically assume his starting duties? Those are good questions and it will be interesting to see what Atlanta does.

I think the answers are pretty obvious. McCann has been an elite catcher for seven seasons now and only had a sup-par last year. You have to give him a bye on that perhaps for injuries. McCann has it all with good power and patience at the plate. He is not a bad defensive catcher and while he is no Molina, he holds his own. You have to give McCann his starting role back.

Plus, McCann, though he has seemed to be around forever, is only 29 years old. That is young for a catcher these days.

After the decision is made to put McCann back to his usual #1 catcher place, the obvious choice after that is to keep Gattis and let Laird go. Yes, Gerald Laird is off to a very good start, but he should regress to his mean, which is no great shakes. Laird is a journeyman catcher who is not very good defensively. He is not a catcher you preserve for the future.

Evan Gattis is a catcher you preserve for the future. He is only 26 years old and has shown he belongs in the majors. He is a good fielding catcher and can learn a lot from McCann moving forward. I cannot see any point in sending Gattis to the minors despite the large jump he made getting from just 49 games in Double-A to the big leagues. Gattis should be kept when McCann returns tonight.

Will that happen? Today will tell us. Brian McCann returning to the Braves IS a good thing. Keeping Laird over Gattis would not be a good thing.

**Update** The Braves have optioned Tyler Pastornicky, thus, for now, delaying having to make a two-catcher decision.

MLB Game Picks - Monday: May 6, 2013

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Mon, 06 May 2013 11:06:00 +0000

Sunday was a fun-filled day of baseball but the picks continued May's struggles and finished just one game over .500 for the day. The Yankees' injury bug has reached into the bullpen and that depleted corp coughed up the game to the A's. Mike Pelfrey is pitching very well for the Twins and I have not adjusted yet and that pick was wrong. My man, Ian Kennedy, was roughed up. Jhoulys Chacin was not nearly as good as I expected him to be for another wrong pick and Roy Halladay...geez...Roy Halladay got whacked around again, this time by the lowly Marlins.

May is now exactly at .500 after 66 picks. Hardly inspiring stuff. And today is one of those dreaded short day with only nine games on the schedule.

Here are Monday's picks:

The Royals over the White Sox: Look at those Royals go! A good match-up in this day game between Chris Sale and James Shields. I am going with Shields at home in a low scoring game.
The Indians over the Athletics: The A's just two of three in New York but have their weakest rotation link going today in Jarrod Parker. Of course, this pick also means a pick for Ubaldo Jimenez. Lord help me. Jimenez has won his last two starts, both of which have been wrong for me. Scary pick though.
The Braves over the Reds: This is an interesting series. I would like the Braves better if Jason Heyward was not still on the DL. But Brian McCann is back today for the Braves. Paul Maholm needs to have a good day for the pick to hold and the Braves need to hit some dingers on Bronson Arroyo.
The Blue Jays over the Rays: This is my upset pick of the day. Mark Buehrle is due to have a good BABIP game and Jeremy Hellickson can run into trouble with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Picking against the Rays is always scary.
The Rangers over the Cubs: This is an interesting game. The Rangers will go without the DH and will face their old friend in Scott Feldman. Feldman has been pitching pretty well lately. Nick Tepesch will go for the Rangers in Wrigley. Which way will the wind be blowing?
The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: This is a tough call. The Dodgers just got spanked by the Giants all weekend. And they have to start Chris Capuano. Yikes. But the Diamondbacks are starting Trevor Cahill and he has not been that good either. Going with the Dodgers at home, but not with any confidence.
The Padres over the Marlins: Another head-scratching game. Andrew Cashner was not very good his last time out but is at home and should strike out a bunch of Marlins. Wade LeBlanc should not strike out any Padres, hence the pick in the final analysis.
The Giants over the Phillies: Can you pick against the Giants at this point? It is like they will not allow themselves to lose. It has been amazing. Some Giants hater commented here a couple of weeks ago that the Giants had not faced quality opponents. You still have to win, baby, and the Giants have done nothing but win. Having Madison Bumgarner on the mound does not hurt either. Cliff Lee is the victim.

And the Game of the Day!

The Red Sox over the Twins: The Red Sox had a tough series against the Rangers, but are back home today with the 6-0 Clay Buchholz on the mound. I hope Buchholz does not let this rosin nonsense affect him. Vance Worley goes for the Twins and has not recorded a win this season.

Yesterday: 8-7

Week: 8-7

Month: 33-33

Season: 263-197

Games of the Day: 25-9

The terrible contract of Adam Dunn

noreply@blogger.com (William Tasker - Caribou, ME) — Sun, 05 May 2013 16:16:00 +0000

Adam Dunn does not appear on many lists for the worst contracts in baseball. But he should be. I spell it all out in the new issue of Big Leagues Magazine, which is free this issue. Check it out and read a whole bunch of other great stuff while you are there.