Fantasy Football Views

2011 Pre-Draft QB Rankings

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 03:37:00 +0000

A quick look at our projected top 10 QBs for 2011. This is based on standard Yahoo! scoring, with 1 point for 25 yards passing, 4 points for a passing TD, -1 point for an int, 1 point for 10 yards rushing, and 6 points for a rushing TD.

While we are on the subject, the projection software can be programmed to allow any fantasy scoring format, and all formats can be saved so the rankings can easily be re-calculated using different scoring formats, for those of us that are in 6 different leagues with 6 different scoring rules.

Anyway, here are the QB's:

Name	Team	PYDS	PTDS	RYDS	RTDS
Michael Vick	PHI	3209	24	715	11
Aaron Rodgers	GNB	3854	28	339	5
Drew Brees	NOR	5130	33	7	0
Philips Rivers	SDG	4715	34	52	0
Tom Brady	NWE	3964	31	24	1
Matt Ryan	ATL	3885	30	80	0
Matt Schaub	HOU	4111	23	28	0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	3779	20	130	2
Peyton Manning	IND	3953	25	8	0
Eli Manning	NYG	3794	26	67	0

A year ago, no one would have predicted Vick (2010 rank: #1) to be at the top of this list. We are projecting him for 400 attempts. He's never had more than 388 in his career, so maybe 400 is a bit high. We are also projecting 8.0 yards per attempt. His last 3 year's TPV (click the link to the right to find out what True Player Value, or "TPV" means) yards per attempt have been 6.3 (2006), 6.6 (2009), and 8.1 (2010). So it looks like we are putting a lot of weight on his 2010 numbers. He didn't have many attempts in 2009 (13), so it makes sense that that wouldn't drag his numbers down much, but it appears that 2006 is not getting any weight in the equation. Maybe the software doesn't realize that 2007 and 2008 were lost seasons. Maybe this is the right thing to do since this is the "new" Michael Vick that appears to be a much more accomplished passer. There's not much precedent for this one, but we should think on this some more...

Aaron Rodgers' (2010 rank: #2) TPV yards per attempt rose from 7.7 to 8.5 from 2009 to 2010, and we are projecting it to come down to 7.9 next year. Still good enough to be the #2 fantasy QB in the league.

Drew Brees' (2010 rank: #6) TPV yards per attempt of 6.9 last year tied for his worst number in his last 7 seasons. The last time (2007), he bounced back for a TPV YPA of 8.2 in 2008. We are projecting a bounce back to only 7.6 this year, but with all the passes he throws, he is our #3 QB.

Phillip Rivers (2010 rank: #5) has been durable throughout his career and incredible consistent over the past three years. We are projecting a slight spike in TD passes (from 30 to 34), and for him to keep up his consistency in yards-per-attempt.

Tom Brady (2010 rank: #3) didn't see his production fall off with Randy Moss, as his TPV YPA actually rose from 8.2 to 8.4. We project him throwing at a 8.3 yards per attempt clip next year, but with a less attempts (480) than in his heyday. Still good enough for the #5 QB.

I often think of Matt Ryan (2010 rank: #9) as being the next great QB, but his TPV YPA has actually fallen each year he has played (7.9 in 2008, 6.9 in 2009, 6.5 in 2010). Still, we are expecting the trend to reverse in a minor way next year, and Ryan to make #6 on our list with 7.2 yards per attempt.

Matt Schaub (2010 rank: #10) has finally shaken the injury-prone label and started all 16 games the last two years. We don't expect this trend to continue, so we have projected him to throw "only" 514 passes next year. We do expect a slight bounce back in YPA (from 7.6 to 8.0) and TD percentage (from 4.0 to 4.5), making Schaub #7 in our rankings.

Ben Roethlisberger (2010 rank: #18) missed 4 games due to suspension in 2010, but don't expect the same next year. He has had a career bump in TPV YPA the last two years (8.4 and 8.5 compared to a career average of 8.1) but we are projecting him to slip back down to his career norm.

What?! Payton Manning (2010 rank: #4) nowhere near the top of this list?! Whats going on here??? Well, we have a rule in our projection algorithm that once a player is on the downside of his career arch, never project him to have a better year on a per-attempt basis the next year. And Manning, entering his 14th season, is definitely on the downside of his career. Manning's overall numbers last year were helped by the total amount of passes that he throw and a relatively easy schedule in terms of pass defenses faced, but his TPV yards per attempt of 6.6 was a full yard below his average over the last seven seasons. Maybe getting Dallas Clark for an extra 10 games next year will help, but we don't think too much (Jacob Tamme put up very similar numbers to Clark's).

Finally, we round out the top 10 with the other, lesser, Manning brother, Eli (2010 rank: #8). With the emergence of Hakeem Nicks and the surprisingly solid play of Mario Manningham, how its hard to believe that Eli did much worse in 2010 than he did in 2009. But he did. His TPV YPA fell from 8.2 to 7.2, and his TPV TD % fell from 5.8 to 5.4. All while his interception percentage skyrocketed from 2.8 to 4.6. No way the Giants let him throw this much next season. Still, we project 500 attempts, 7.6 yards per attempt, and a 5.3% TD percentage for the Manning that is not quite yet on the downside of his career.

Falling out of the top 10 is last year's #7 QB, Josh Freeman. He had a pretty high spike in TPV TD% last year, from 3.1 to 5.8 percent. We are projecting a fall back to 3.2 percent (which frankly does seem a bit low...) and Freeman to fall to #12 overall (behind Joe Flacco).

First Look at Projector Software

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Sat, 12 Feb 2011 03:58:00 +0000

Ok, I guess its been about 10 months since I've posted, and fantasy football is the last thing most people are thinking about right now. Well, I'm not "most people." I have spent most of my "spare time" working on the algorithms and the software that I alluded to in the last few posts (hint: the final algorithm doesn't use anything close to the charts shown in previous posts). So while I have been terribly neglecting this site, I do think I have come up with something pretty useful.

Maybe someday I'll have time to write about some of the interesting things I have found during my maharaji-like sojourn into all this data, but for now, let me whet your appetite with a screen shot that shows most of the 2011 projections for the Baltimore Ravens.

If you have any interest in getting a beta version, drop me a note and I'll see what I can put together. The main feature that I need to add before the season starts is a draft module. If I have time, I would love to also drop in an android/iphone app for drafting.

Sorry about the fuzziness of the image - I guess I need to figure out how to do this a little better.

I'll try to be more active over the next few weeks and show lists for QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. I'll also try to write a few posts showing all the cool features in the software.

Predicting QB Performance

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 02:34:00 +0000

OK, its been a while, but I have been working on predicting QB performance. And here it is:

Instead of a post with graphs and another that shows minimal error calculations, I'll just show you everything in one long post. Again, we were looking at QB's that had at least 100 passes in each of 2007, 2008, and 2009 (there were 19 such players). We then used 2007 and 2008 stats to predict 2009 performance, and used 2009 performance to find the way to tweak our algorithm to minimize error.

For completions, we found that previous year's stats were much more important than the player's experience level. A formula that used 45% 2007 stats, 45% 2008 stats, and 10% completions percentage by experience level minimized error.

For yardage, it turns out that experience level is just as important as previous years stats. Furthermore, stats from 1 year ago are much more telling that stats from 2 years ago. A formula that uses 15% 2007 stats, 35% 2008 stats, and 50% experience level minimized error. Looking at the graph of yards per attempt vs. experience, we see that players tend to improve steadily until year 12, where we see a step drop-off. The last few years in the graph look good, but these are Brett Favre years only and should be expected of every quadragenerian that goes under center.

Strangely enough, the exact same formula for yardage also applies to TDs thrown. TDs thrown do improve steadily throughout a player's career, until they hit a precipitous decline around year 12, with a Favre-fueled resurgence in year 17.

Finally, interceptions are best predicted by experience level, not necessarily prior performance. What's more, performance from 2 years ago seems to hold more weight then from 1 year ago. Once we have a more extensive database, I expect this trend will reverse. But for now, a formula that uses 6% 2007 stats, 4% 2008 stats, and 90% experience level gives us minimal error.

When we graph interception percent by experience level, we find that while interceptions do drop off quite a bit the first few years, they then level off. There does seem to be a spike around year 14, but that is due to low sample size more than anything else.

Up next, we will figure out how to predict player performance after a trade and any ripple effect that may have on the rest of the team (Donavon McNabb, anyone?)

Analyzing error in WR prediction methods

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 03:54:00 +0000

In our last post, we looked at some charts that told us how wide receivers perform based on the number of years that they have spent in the league. Today, we will use these data to come up with prediction methods, then measure and minimize the error with each prediction method. For the purpose of prediction, we will use 2007 and 2008 statistics to try to predict 2009 performance. The error is the difference between predicted and actual 2009 performance. We will be using the RMS error method outlined a few posts below for calculating error.

First of all, we limited ourselves to players that had at least 20 catches in each of 2007, 2008, and 2009. That gave us a list of 48 players to use in this analysis. A bigger data base going back more years might give us more players to analyze, but recent changes in rules, enforcement, and offensive philosophies may make that older data less relevant.

The most important thing to try to predict for a WR is catches. Turns out, this is also one of the most difficult. We first tried the very simple method of using the last two years stats in a weighted average to come up with a prediction for catches. It turns out that to create minimal error, we had to use 30% of 2007 catches and 70% of 2008 catches. In other words, if a player caught 50 passes last year and 40 passes the year before, the best prediction for next year would be 50 * 0.7 + 40 * 0.3 = 47 catches.

We then tried to see if we could use improvement per year of experience to predict how many catches a WR might make. There are two years worth of stats that can be used here. First, you can take 2008 stats and predict 2009 stats from his experience in 2009. Also, you can take 2007 stats, predict 2008 stats from his experience in 2008, then from that value predict 2009 stats from his experience in 2009. We used a weighted average of these two years stats to minimize error, and found that the minimal error was achieved when only 2008 stats were used and 2007 stats were completely ignored. This makes sense because the 2007 stats used the prediction model twice, which would have essentially squared any error associated with the model.

We tried combining these two methods (using stats only and using stats and improvement), and found that using stats only by itself gave minimal error. So the only time when using improvement by experience is helpful is for rookies that do not have 2 years' worth of stats to predict with.

Next, we looked at how to predict yards per catch. Using only a weighted average of 2007 and 2008 stats, we found that error was minimized with a weight of 0.8 on the stats from 2 years ago and 0.2 on the stats from last year. This is a rather surprising result, that shows that yards per catch is actually pretty volatile and hard to predict. If we took a weighted average of this result and the average yards per catch for a player at this experience level, we find that the error is minimized with a weight of 0.4 on previous years' stats, and 0.6 on players' experience level. This shows us that how long a player has been in the league has slightly more to do with yards per catch than previous years stats. It uses enough of previous years' stats to ensure that the speedsters will still have above-average yards per catch, but they will come down to the pack as they start to age.

Finally, we looked at predicting TDs per catch. Using a weighted average from 2007 and 2008, we find that error is minimized with a weight of 0.2 from 2 years ago and 0.8 from the last year. This tells us that TDs per catch are much more predictable than yards per catch, and players tend to follow any trend that they had established the previous year. Combining this with average players' stats per yer of experience, we find that a perfectly balanced weight of 0.5 for the individual player's stats and 0.5 for the average stats for the player's experience level give us minimal error. So age does play a role in determining how many TDs a player is going to score, but not as much as a role as it does for yards per catch.

WR Stats with Experience

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 02:20:00 +0000

Using some of the methods outlined in previous posts, we took a look at WR trends over the past 3 seasons. First, we calculated the yards per catch for receivers based upon experience:

So there is a little up-and-down over the first 10 years, but it is pretty subtle (an 8% drop between years 6 and 10). Again, we see an actual increase after year 10, which I attribute to only the better receivers remaining on teams after 10 years in the league.

If we look at TDs as a percentage of receptions, we get:

So just as with running backs, it appears that wide receivers are able to get into the end zone much more often as a percentage of touches. For the rest of the career, players tend slightly upwards. The spike in year 10 is just an anomaly.

Now, let's take a look at how wide receivers improve from year to year in terms of catches.

So here we see the development cycle of receivers. There is a 4-to-1 improvement from the rookie season to year 2, and a 1.7-to-1 improvement from year 2 to year 3. So a rookie that gets 10 catches could be expected to get 40 catches in year 2 and 68 in year 3. This pattern of improvement actually continues through year 7.

Next up: calculating the error.

Player Movement Tracker

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 14:27:00 +0000

Hello. As today is the first day of free agency, I will attempt to compile a list of all player movement that has a direct impact on fantasy football. I won't be dealing with any rumors, third-string defensive back movement, etc. Just the done deals that will affect a player's fantasy football stats.

I will start with what has happened this morning, but I will continue to update this post as new moves are made all the way up to training camp.

OFFENSIVE PLAYERS
Nate Burleson - WR - From Seattle to Detroit
Brandon Manumaleuna - TE - From San Diego to Chicago
Chester Taylor - RB - From Minnesota to Chicago
Anquon Boldin - WR - From Arizona to Baltimore
Kassim Osgood - WR - From San Diego to Jacksonville
David Carr - QB - From Giants to San Francisco
Arnez Battle - WR - From San Francisco to Pittsburgh
Marcus Mason - RB - From Washington to San Diego
Antwan Randle El - WR - From Washington to Pittsburgh
Reggie Brown - WR - From Philadelphia to Tampa Bay
Seneca Wallace - QB - From Seattle to Cleveland
Jim Sorgi - QB - From Indianapolis to Giants
Donte Stallworth - WR - From Prison to Baltimore
Thomas Jones - RB - From Jets to Kansas City
Antonio Bryant - WR - From Tampa Bay to Cincinnati
Jerheme Urban - WR - From Arizona to Kansas City
Ben Watson - TE - From New England to Cleveland
Hank Baskett - WR - From Indianapolis to Philadelphia
Larry Johnson - RB - From Cincinnati to Washington
Jake Delhomme - QB - From Carolina to Cleveland
Luke McCown - QB - From Tampa Bay to Jacksonville
Chris Baker - TE - From Jets to Seattle
Brady Quinn - QB - From Cleveland to Denver
LaDanian Tomlinson - RB - From San Diego to Jets
Peyton Hillis - RB - From Denver to Cleveland
Shaun Hill - QB - From San Francisco to Detriot
Ruvell Martin - WR - From St Louis to Seattle
Derek Anderson - QB - From Cleveland to Arizona
Rex Grossman - QB - From Houston to Washington
Charlie Whitehurst - QB - From San Diego to Seattle
Quinton Ganther - RB - From Washington to Seattle

DEFENSIVE IMPACT PLAYERS
Antonio Cromartie - CB - From San Diego to Jets
Corey Williams - DL - From Cleveland to Detroit
Julius Peppers - DL - From Carolina to Chicago
Duante Robinson - CB - From Houston to Atlanta
Karlos Dansby - LB - From Arizona to Miami
Antrel Rolle - S - From Arizona to Giants

Predicting RB Touchdowns

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Using the same methods detailed in the last few posts, I started looking at how running backs' touchdowns are affected by age and experience.

First, a look at td percentage (per carry) as a function of player age:
This curve looks OK, with a slight Fred Taylor effect, but an unexplainable notch appears at age 24.

Now for td percentage as a function of player experience:

This one makes perfect sense. Rookies and 2nd-year players do OK, then see a huge spike in year three. After that, it is more or less all downhill.

If we calculate the RMS error of simply using a player's last two years stats to predict next year's TDs, we get 4.56 TDs of error. Using age, the number falls to 3.66, and using experience, the error is 3.18 TDs.

Once again, it appears that using a combination of previous years' stats and player experience gives us the best prediction of future player performance. This is heartening, since that is the same thing we found when looking a RB yards per carry. Hopefully, we have come across a method that will work for all positions.

Next up: Wide receivers.

Sources of Error in RB YPC Projections

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 03:51:00 +0000

In the last few articles, I have shown some average yards per carry and improvement for running backs by age and by experience. In this article, we are going to examine the error we get if we apply these curves to predict 2009 statistics from 2008 and 2007 stats.

We will calculate error on a root-mean-squared (RMS) basis. In other words, we will take our projected 2009 yards per carry, subtract the actual 2009 yards per carry, square the result, add up the squared value for all the players, divide by the number of players, and, finally, take the square root of the result. This gives us a measure that is equally weighted for too high and too low errors, and in units of yards per carry.

As a baseline, we will figure out what the RMS error is if we use last years value or an average of the last two years.
Using last year's YPC = 0.7597
Using avg of last 2 year's YPC = 0.6650

So for our system we are trying to come up with, we better have an RMS error of less than 0.6650, or all this fancy cipherin' will be for nothing.

So we will start with the worst and work our way up to the best.

In last place, we have YPC improvement using the player's age, with a projection error of 0.8836. Funny, since I put in yesterday's post that this was my favorite based upon the curve shape, but it seems to not do very well.

Next, is YPC improvement using the player's experience, with an error of 0.8443. So it looks like multiplying last year's stats by a player improvement average is actually less accurate than just using the previous years' stats.

Using average YPC with age results in an error of 0.6206, so we finally have something that is better than just using the player's stats from the previous year.

Finally, using average YPC with experience results in an error of 0.6166. So just using a player's experience as opposed to any prior performance is the way to go? That just didn't seem right. So I decided to use a percentage of prior performance and a percentage of experience for projecting. I ran an analysis to find which split of percentages would minimize error, and found that a split of 20% prior statistics and 80% YPC per experience resulted in a minimal error of 0.5266.

Still, putting so much more weight on experience than prior performance does not feel right. For this analysis, I used only players with 100 or more carries in each of the 3 year of the analysis, so there were only 20 players used. This small sample size could be cause for error, so for 2010 stats, I will use 50% of the player's last 3 years average, and 50% of the average YPC per experience of the player.

When I'm able to get more years of stats in my database, and when I have time (which may not be until next offseason), I will revisit these numbers to see how the formula should be tweaked.

Next up: running back TDs.

RB Performance with Age

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 01:48:00 +0000

As promised, today we are going to look at how running backs perform per age. First, we added up all the yards gained by 20-year-olds, 21-year-olds, 22-year-olds, etc, then divided by the number of carries for each age group. The figure below shows the results.

The only 20 year old to play RB in the last three years, is Gary Russell, who I have never heard of either. His three yards per carry in his rookie season is what is bringing down the chart on the left-hand side. After peaking at age 24, players gradually decline until age 30, where there is an unexpected upturn that I am starting to refer to as the "Fred Taylor Effect."

The best explanation I can come up with for the Fred Taylor Effect is that only the best running backs are kept around after age 30 - a mediocre back will get replaced by a cheaper, higher upside, rookie.

Now lets take a look at average player improvement at each age. Values over 1 in the chart below indicate improvement, and values under 1 indicate that the player's performance dropped.

This is my favorite chart so far, because it is the closest to the trend I originally expected. Again, Gary Russell was responsible for the initial dip (as he was the only 21-year-old to have 20-year-old statistics), but the peak improvement at age 24 and 25 make a lot of sense. Then players tend to stay about the same until age 29, when they drop off. Again, the Fred Taylor effect kicks in as players pass age 30.

Note that the improvment past age 30 can't be explained by merely saying that only the best back is kept around past age 30, because these guys are actually getting BETTER after they are supposedly past their prime. Still, I think this is a statistical anomaly in recent stats brought on by Fred Taylor, Ricky Williams, et. al.

Up next, we will try to determine which of these plots we have looked at would have resulted in teh best predictor of 2009 performance.

RB Improvement with Experience

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 01:53:00 +0000

OK, here's the update - I've got the last three season's (2007, 2008, and 2009) worth of games into my database and I can finally start to play around with some stats.

So now the question becomes, what is the best way to project a player's improvement?

I'm starting by looking at running backs and yards per carry. I am breaking down everything by years of experience. In the chart below, I added up all the carries for first year players, then added up all the yards that first year players gained, then divided yards by carries to get yards per carry for first year players. Then I did the same for second year players, third year players, etc.

The first 8 or 9 years of this chart looked like I expected, but there is a very unexpected spike in year 10. This is due to some pretty good year 10's lately from Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and Ricky Williams. Those guys also got many more carries than other year 10 guys, so the average was heavily weighted towards their performances.

So to take the number-of-carries bias out of the equation, I just decided to average up all the individual yard per carries for each year of experience. That looked like this:

Hmmm... same shape, just the numbers are a little lower, owing to the fact that guys with better yards per carry tend to get more carries.

OK, lets try another approach. Lets see how individual players improve from year-to-year with experiance. In other words, how much does the average year 2 player improve over his year 1 performance, how does the average year 3 player improve over his year 2 performance, and so on.

Well, we're just not going to get over the late-career bias in this one, but I still think this one might turn out to be the most useful. This would give us the ability to use last season's stats to project a player's performance in the next season. However, no way I am projecting huge improvements for running backs going into years 9 and 10. (Sorry, LaDainian.)

Up next, we will look at the same charts ordered by age as opposed to experience, then we will look at ways to figure out which method is the most accurate.

Another interesting idea, if we have time, is to use a player's total carries entering a season to predict performance.

Firing up again(?)

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 21:33:00 +0000

Wow. Did I really take a whole season off? My performance in my fantasy leagues this year tells me... yes.

So I head into this off-season determined to get my projections ready for 2010, which basically means starting now.

I have the last 3 year's stats (2007, 2008, and 2009) into a new projection program that I am writing. I am still working on the user interface a bit to be able to view complete player profiles, then I should be able to get it to spit out some pre-free agency projections.

I got so burned out after the 2008 season that I will be doing things a bit differently this season. So I will be making fewer posts, but focusing on what I am best at, which is draft preparation. I will check in from time to time as I hit significant strides with the software, and will of course post my projections and draft strategies as the summer wears on.

By the way, am I high again on Jay Cutler? Of course I am!!! I can't wait to nab him in the 10th or 11th round of the 2010 draft and watch him put up big numbers in Mike Martz's offense.

Still Here, Plans for off-season

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 05:51:00 +0000

Sorry I have been absent for the last few weeks - to make a long story short, never get into the rental housing market. Or put more clearly, never buy a rental property that is situated on ground that makes Heinz Field in December look stable. So after paying a boatload of money to a foundation repair company and fixing about 100 drywall cracks, I am ready to return to my true love - fantasy football.

For the off-season, here is what I plan to do -

1. Enter all the 2006 game data into my database. I currently have 2007 and (most of) 2008, so this will give me three year's of data, which I think will be good for projection baselines.

1a. Speaking of projections, I will write one or two articles patting myself on the back for 2008 projections - for instance my sleeper list from before the season has a lot of great names on it, in hindsight.

1b. I will also look for projections where I was way, way, wrong (Joseph Addai, anyone?) and see if we can learn anything from it.

2. Try to get the projection system to start spitting out 2009 projections by the time free agency starts, so I can easily make adjustments as players switch teams. This includes an easy interface to change a player's projected playing time, which could happen with free agency movement or with coaching changes.

3. Post the first set of projections shortly after the draft, giving more time during training camp to peruse camp stories and make tweaks to the ratings.

4. Figure out how many weeks of the season to use for projections. For example, in week 10 of the season, is a team's projected defensive performance indicated by an equal weighting of their performance in the first 9 weeks, or should more recent weeks be weighted more heavily?

5. Make the in-season weekly rankings spit out of the projection system more easily, so it becomes more of a cut-and-paste job to put them on the web site, so I can have more time to write quasi-interesting articles instead of being a slave to getting rankings done by the end of the week. This also includes the ability to tell the database that a player is on IR so I don' t have to remember to delete Nate Burleson every week.

On the subject of the projection/ranking software, I have a dream of it some day being a program that people would actually want to pay for, but it won't be there in 2009. However, I might be interested in giving an early version of the software to a handful of beta testers for the 2009 season. If you are interested, drop me a line.

Week 16 RB Fantasy Football Rankings

noreply@blogger.com (Pro Football 101) — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 17:45:00 +0000

Must Starts

1. Brian Westbrook vs. Washington Redskins

The Skins are reeling and the Eagles are fighting for a playoff spot. Westbrook might be the most dynamic offensive player in the game when healthy. Look for No. 36’s number to be called a lot on Sunday and for Westbrook to eclipse the 100-yard mark and put a few balls into the end zone.

2. Steve Slaton vs. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders boast one of the worst run defenses in football and apparently pass defenses too after last week’s manhandling by the Patriots. Slaton has shown himself to be a 20+ carry kind of back this year and look for him to continue his hot running when the Texans head out to Oakland.

3. MarShawn Lynch vs. Denver Broncos

One of the lone bright spots for the fading Bills last week was RB MarShawn Lynch. He ran with power, with purpose, and finished with over 120 yards in the game. This week, he gets the Broncos, and their 29th ranked defense. Although the Bills are out of the AFC East Playoff race, they haven’t rolled over and died, so expect a big fantasy effort from Lynch on Sunday.

4. Thomas Jones vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Jets are desperate for a win this Sunday at Seattle and the best way to get it is to stick with what has worked: running the football. Jones has emerged as a big time threat this season on the ground and look for that to continue this weekend as he gets to face the 26th ranked defense in the Seahawks.

Sleepers:

1. Mwelde Moore vs. Tennessee Titans

Moore gets a lot of the goal line carries for Pittsburgh and in this big match-up on Sunday to decide the AFC’s top seed, the Titans will be without Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth. That is two massive losses to the line. Look for the Steelers to employ a heavy run oriented game plan and for Moore to score at least once by the goal line.

2. Kevin Smith vs. New Orleans Saints

Aside from Calvin Johnson, there’s few bright spots on this Lions’ team, but Smith is becoming one of them. The rookie has been running hard of late and appears to have a nice future ahead of him. Look for a strong fantasy effort out of him Sunday when the Saints, and their unimpressive defense, come to town.

Others with favorable match-ups:

1. Ronnie Brown vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Brown is having a wonderful year for the 9-5 Dolphins and now gets a bit of a breather against the Chiefs. Look for Miami to run all over Kansas City and for Brown to have a solid day on the ground.

2. Pierre Thomas vs. Detroit Lions

The Saints appear to have found a running back and his name isn’t Reggie Bush; it’s Pierre Thomas. The kid runs hard, is elusive, and has shown that he can take it to the house. Look for him to eat up the Lions defense as New Orleans should be playing with the lead.

3. Steven Jackson vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are playing much more competitively under Mike Singletary, but Jackson’s as dangerous as they come in the NFL. Look for a solid effort from No. 39 as he cuts and slashes his way through the Niners’ D.

Week 15 QB Fantasy Football Rankings

noreply@blogger.com (Pro Football 101) — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 21:03:00 +0000

Must-Starts:

1. Peyton Manning vs. Detroit Lions. O-13 goes to 0-14 after this one. The winless Lions are heading to Indianapolis at a time when the Colts are on a roll and after Sunday’s 35-3 blowout over the Bengals, Peyton showed that even in blowouts he’ll get his numbers: 277 yards and 3 TDs. Look for similar numbers this Sunday and Peyton is the top fantasy QB of the week.

2. Kurt Warner vs. Minnesota Vikings. Even though the Cardinals clinched the NFC West on Sunday, it’s still too early to begin resting players before the NFL playoffs begin. And with the Cards inability to generate much from the ground game in general, look for Warner to continue his air assault on the Vikings and reach the 300-yard mark with a few scores.

3. Tony Romo vs. New York Giants. Romo has historically been a Giants killer throughout his career. And in this Sunday Night match-up, the Cowboys will be playing on pure desperation. Look for Romo to have a solid game as his line will provide him time to locate his prime targets, and for Romo to finish with at least two TDs.

4. Eli Manning vs. Dallas Cowboys. The other signal caller in the game, Eli Manning, also has a history of playing well against the Cowboys and in particular in Dallas. The Giants will look to erase Sunday’s loss to the Eagles from their memory and look for Eli to have a big game spreading the ball around to his playmakers and putting a few into the endzone.

Sleepers:

1. Jeff Garcia vs. Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have played pretty solid defense throughout the season and have clamped down on most opposing teams’ running games, so look for Garcia to have some opportunities in the passing game and for him to locate Bryant and Galloway on at least one deep pass.

2. Matt Schaub vs. Tennessee Titans. The Titans bring a dominant defense into this football game but division rivalries have been known to produce uncharacteristic outcomes. Schaub has a solid group of playmakers at his disposal and after today’s 400+ yard game, look for at least 250 this weekend.

Others with favorable match-ups:

1. Donovan McNabb vs. Cleveland Browns. McNabb will try and keep the Eagles’ playoff hopes alive and the Browns are ready for ‘09. Look for McNabb to once again enjoy a solid performance on Monday night.

2. Jake Delhomme vs. Denver Broncos. Delhomme has had his ups and downs this season but against the Broncos, he should have his opportunities. The Broncos have had trouble all season getting pressure on opposing QBs and Delhomme has the weapons to make them pay.

3. Aaron Rodgers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have mailed in 2008 and the Packers are close to doing so as well. Sitting two games back with three to play, the Packers must win out and get help. Look for Rodgers to play his part and for the passing game to come up big on Sunday.

College Football Playoff Seedings

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 03:09:00 +0000

The BCS rankings have been released, so now we can seed our imaginary Division I (or BCS bowl division, or whatever) playoffs:

December 13 - 8 games
Holiday Bowl - Boise State vs. Boston College
Sun Bowl - Ohio State vs. Northwestern
Motor City - TCU vs. Ball State
Texas Bowl - Cincinnati vs. Missouri
Independance Bowl - Oklahoma State vs. Pittsburgh
Alamo Bowl - Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Emerald Bowl - Georgia vs. Michigan State
Humanitarian Bowl - BYU vs. Oregon

December 20 - 8 games
Gator Bowl - Oklahoma vs. #16
Outback Bowl - Florida vs. #15
Motor City Bowl - Texas vs. #14
Insight Bowl - Alabama vs. #13
GMAC Bowl - USC vs. #12
International Bowl - Utah vs. #11
Capital One Bowl - Texas Tech vs. #10
Chick-fil-A Bowl - Penn State vs. #9

Over the next week, I'll "pencil-sim" the December 13 games.

Something completely unrelated to fantasy football

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 16:54:00 +0000

OK, so it involves football and it is a fantasy, but I wanted to share with you my thoughts about a college football playoff.

Right now, division II does a 24-team playoff, that began on November 15 and will conclude on December 13 (Minnesota-Duluth will be facing Northwest Missouri in the championship clash). A similar playoff format for the BCS division could start on December 13 and conclude on January 10 (2 days after the scheduled 2009 BCS championship game). So it is possible. This would require 23 games, so 23 of the 34 current bowls games could be included in the scheme. The top 8 teams get a first round bye, with the 9-24 ranked teams playing to get to the next round. After that, every team is re-seeded and sent to a bowl.

For the bowls that are included, I think that the revenues would skyrocket. Since the BCS has been instituted, I watch about 2 bowl games a year - the national championship game and the one that my team is in (if they make it - which is becoming rare). The rest of the bowl games don't really have any meaning. But if all the bowl games fed into the national championship, then you would have people across the country glued to their TVs on December Saturdays. All of these bowls suddenly become relevant.

Another advantage is that you no longer have the month-plus layoff for teams heading into the championship game. I believe that this layoff is what sometimes causes one of the teams to come out flat, making the game anticlimatic (USC vs. Texas a few years ago being a major exception).

And, of course, you don't have the problems of teams that are on the outside looking in that have a good reason to believe that they deserve to be in the championship game. Texas, USC, Utah, Boise State, and Penn State can all make arguments to be in the championship game this year.

So, we will use the BCS rankings that come out later today to seed our 24 teams, then pencil-sim the results of each Saturdays games until we get to our imaginary national championship. I will try to use the teams' actual bowl performance in my results, when possible.

Here are the games that we will have

December 13 - 8 games
Holiday Bowl #9 vs. #24
Sun Bowl #10 vs. #23
Motor City #11 vs. #22
Texas Bowl #12 vs. #21
Independance Bowl #13 vs. #20
Alamo Bowl #14 vs. #19
Emerald Bowl #15 vs. #18
Humanitarian Bowl #16 vs. #17

December 20 - 8 games
Gator Bowl #1 vs. #16
Outback Bowl #2 vs. #15
Motor City Bowl #3 vs. #14
Insight Bowl #4 vs. #13
GMAC Bowl #5 vs. #12
International Bowl #6 vs. #11
Capital One Bowl #7 vs. #10
Chick-fil-A Bowl #8 vs. #9

December 27 - 4 games
Orange Bowl #1 vs. #8
Sugar Bowl #2 vs. #7
Cotton Bowl #3 vs. #6
Liberty Bowl #4 vs. #5

January 3 - 2 games
Rose Bowl - #1 vs #4
Fiesta Bowl - #2 vs #3

January 10 - National Championship Game

Sunday Morning Projection Updates

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 15:53:00 +0000

Marion Barber is out, and Tashard Choice is in for the Cowboys. Expect Choice to get about 50 yards rushing and 20 yards receiving against Pittsburgh.

There are some weather conditions that could affect the passing games in these areas:

Jacksonville at Chicago - Currently 6 degrees, expected to be in the upper teens/lower 20s by game time. No real wind, though, so the poor passing games of both teams will only suffer a little.

Philadelphia at NY Giants - 37 degrees, some snow, 20 MPH winds. You can downgrade the passing attacks some in this game. Expect Brandon Jacobs to be used a battering ram and expect a lot of touches for Brian Westbrook.

Cleveland at Tennessee - 35 degrees, sunny, 7 MPH winds. Niether of these teams has a big passing attack anyway, but they won't be affected very much.

Houston at Green Bay - 15 degrees, partly sunny, no wind. This is the game many are worrying about, but since the wind is calm, I wouldn't bench Rodgers, Jennings, or Andre Johnson in this game. However, our projection of Rodgers being the best fantasy QB of the week is in some doubt.

Kansas City at Denver - 50 degrees, mostly cloudy. Nothing to worry about, but it is always wise to check Denver's weather this time of year.

Dallas at Pittsburgh - 20 degrees, cloudy, 8 MPH winds. Expect the Steelers to try to wear down the Cowboys with Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, but the Cowboys have no "Choice" but to pass. The Steelers defense will be a bigger impediment to Romo and company than the weather.

Washington at Baltimore - 30 degrees, clear, 18 MPH winds. This game will see some of the heaviest winds, so it could also have a higher effect on the passing game. Again, niether of these teams is built upon the pass, so it shouldn't affect anyone's fantasy day too much.

Friday Projection Updates

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 02:19:00 +0000

Matt Hasselbeck (back) will miss this Sunday's game with the back problem he has been suffering with all season, so I removed him from the projections. I would add in Seneca Wallace's projection, but suffice it to say, he would go on the bottom of the list.

Wes Welker is practicing fully and expected to play.

TJ Houshmandzadeh (back) is probable and expected to play.

Josh Morgan (groin) has returned to practice and is expected to play.

Arnez Battle (foot) is listed as probable.

Ryan Grant (thumb) is expected to see his full work load.

Marion Barber (toe) has not practiced and is a game-time decision. You may want to sit him against Pittsburgh if you have anything resembling a reasonable alternative.

Matt Schaub has practiced all week and will start - unless he gets another sudden stomach virus.

Trent Edwards (groin) will not start this week. He has been replaced in the rankings with JP Losman.

Clinton Portis (neck) returned to practice in a limited fashion. See Marion Barber.

Correll Buckhalter (knee) has not practiced all week and is not expected to play.

WR Projections - Week 14

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:39:00 +0000

Name	Prj Rec	Prj Rec Yards	Prj Rec TDs	Fan Pts
Anquan Boldin	8	88	1.3	18
Greg Jennings	5	88	0.9	14
Roddy White	6	100	0.6	14
Randy Moss	5	76	0.9	13
Larry Fitzgerald	6	87	0.7	13
Andre Johnson	7	88	0.6	12
Calvin Johnson	4	85	0.5	12
Bernard Berrian	4	81	0.5	11
Reggie Wayne	5	73	0.6	11
Dwayne Bowe	5	73	0.5	10
Donald Driver	5	58	0.7	10
Brandon Marshall	7	83	0.3	10
Hines Ward	5	68	0.5	10
Lance Moore	5	63	0.6	10
Eddie Royal	6	70	0.4	10
Lee Evans	5	83	0.2	10
Vincent Jackson	4	54	0.6	9
Issac Bruce	4	62	0.5	9
Matt Jones	6	80	0.2	9
Santana Moss	5	65	0.4	9
Steve Smith	5	78	0.2	9
Terrell Owens	4	59	0.5	9
Wes Welker	7	81	0.1	9
Laveranues Coles	5	55	0.5	9
Kevin Walter	4	54	0.5	9
DeShaun Jackson	4	63	0.1	8
Marquez Colston	4	77	0.1	8
Santonio Holmes	4	58	0.4	8
Steve Breaston	6	67	0.2	8
Jerico Cotchery	5	60	0.3	8
Justin Gage	3	52	0.4	8
Michael Jenkins	3	51	0.4	8
Devin Hester	3	40	0.5	7
Devery Henderson	2	53	0.3	7
Derrick Mason	5	61	0.2	7
Nate Washington	3	49	0.3	7
Amani Toomer	4	44	0.4	7
TJ Housmanzadeh	7	57	0.1	7
Marty Booker	2	30	0.6	7
Marvin Harrison	4	42	0.4	7
Malcom Floyd	3	47	0.3	7
Brandon Lloyd	3	47	0.3	6
Jason Hill	4	52	0.2	6
Antonio Bryant	5	52	0.1	6
Muhsin Muhammad	4	43	0.3	6
Ted Ginn	4	55	0.1	6
Braylon Edwards	4	55	0.1	6
Ashley Lelie	2	37	0.4	6
Anthony Gonzalez	4	48	0.2	6
Mike Walker	4	59	0.0	6
Jabar Gaffney	3	41	0.3	6
Robert Meachem	2	41	0.3	6
Chris Chambers	3	34	0.4	6
Kevin Curtis	4	46	0.2	6
Mark Clayton	2	35	0.2	6
Hank Baskett	3	38	0.3	6
Bryant Johnson	3	43	0.2	6
Billy McMullen	4	55	0.0	6
Donnie Avery	4	46	0.1	5
Reggie Williams	3	35	0.3	5
Mark Bradley	4	48	0.1	5
Josh Reed	4	47	0.1	5
Rashied Davis	3	33	0.3	5
Reggie Brown	3	38	0.2	5
Derek Hagan	3	50	0.0	5
Antwan Randle El	4	38	0.1	5
Brandon Stokley	4	38	0.2	5
Domenik Hixon	3	41	0.1	5
David Patten	2	36	0.2	5
Josh Morgan	2	35	0.2	5
Harry Douglas	2	29	0.1	5
Bobby Wade	4	40	0.1	5
Chansi Stuckey	2	28	0.3	5
Roy Williams	3	33	0.2	5
Patrick Crayton	3	33	0.2	5
Koren Robinson	3	34	0.2	5
Arnez Battle	3	44	0.0	4
Tory Holt	4	38	0.1	4

TE Projections, Week 14

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:37:00 +0000

Standard fantasy scoring. Guys with asterisks (*) next to their names need their injury status checked before you give them the start.

Name	Prj Rec	Prj Rec Yards	Prj Rec TDs	Fan Pts
Tony Gonzalez	6	75	0.6	11
Dallas Clark	4	40	0.6	8
Donald Lee	3	21	1.0	8
Kevin Boss	3	40	0.6	8
Anthonio Gates	4	41	0.5	7
Jason Witten	5	57	0.2	7
Tony Scheffler	4	57	0.2	7
Visanthe Shiancoe	2	33	0.5	6
Zach Miller	3	56	0.1	6
Dustin Keller	4	48	0.2	6
Chris Cooley	6	52	0.1	6
Billy Miller	4	51	0.1	6
John Carlson	4	37	0.3	5
Greg Olsen	3	37	0.3	5
Mercedes Lewis	3	43	0.2	5
Owen Daniels	4	46	0.1	5
Heath Miller	3	40	0.2	5
Bo Scaife	4	39	0.2	5
Kellen Winslow	4	39	0.1	5
Vernon Davis	2	33	0.2	5
Jeremy Shockey	4	45	0.0	5
Anthony Fasano	3	33	0.2	4
Martellus Bennett	2	24	0.3	4
LJ Smith	2	22	0.3	4
Justin Peelle	2	21	0.3	4
Derek Fine	2	20	0.3	4
David Martin	2	31	0.1	4
Robert Royal	3	31	0.1	4
Todd Heap	3	24	0.2	4
Jeremy Stevens	3	30	0.1	4
Alex Smith	2	24	0.2	4
Dante Rosario	3	27	0.1	3
Ben Watson	2	25	0.1	3
Randy McMichael	3	31	0.0	3
Brent Celek	3	31	0.0	3

RB Projections - Week 14

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:34:00 +0000

Standard fantasy scoring. Guys with asterisks (*) next to their names need their injury status checked before you give them the start.

Name	Prj Ru Yards	Prj Ru TDs	Prj Rec Yards	Prj Rec TDs	Fan Pts
Adrian Peterson	157	1.1	9	0.0	23
Matt Forte	88	0.5	32	0.7	19
Peyton Hillis	75	1.1	27	0.2	18
Tim Hightower	60	1.6	17	0.0	17
Steve Slaton	99	0.8	19	0.1	17
Ladanian Tomlinson	91	0.8	27	0.1	17
Thomas Jones	86	0.8	14	0.3	17
Larry Johnson	92	0.6	8	0.0	14
Brian Westbrook	51	0.7	23	0.3	13
Chris Johnson	84	0.4	19	0.1	13
Ronnie Brown	56	1.0	15	0.0	13
Brandon Jacobs	74	0.9	3	0.0	13
Reggie Bush	39	0.2	55	0.4	13
Maurice Jones-Drew	32	0.9	43	0.0	13
Frank Gore	60	0.5	33	0.1	13
Michael Turner	87	0.6	1	0.0	12
Ryan Grant	97	0.3	3	0.0	12
Marshawn Lynch	55	0.4	25	0.1	11
Kevin Faulk	46	0.3	38	0.1	11
Pierre Thomas	46	0.6	19	0.1	11
Joseph Addai	55	0.5	13	0.1	10
Edgerin James	60	0.6	7	0.0	10
Jamal Lewis	63	0.4	13	0.0	10
Sammie Morris	46	0.6	14	0.0	10
Chester Taylor	36	0.4	26	0.1	10
Marion Barber*	44	0.3	27	0.1	10
Clinton Portis*	68	0.2	15	0.0	9
Steven Jackson	57	0.1	30	0.0	9
Lendale White	45	0.7	1	0.0	9
Warrick Dunn	58	0.1	20	0.0	8
Derrick Ward	44	0.1	33	0.0	8
Le'Ron McClain	41	0.4	9	0.1	8
DeAngelo Williams	59	0.1	8	0.1	8
Mewelde Moore	20	0.4	28	0.1	8
Selvin Young	64	0.2	2	0.0	8
Willie Parker	46	0.5	1	0.0	8
Leon Washington	26	0.2	25	0.2	8
Kevin Smith	38	0.3	19	0.0	8
Cedrick Benson	60	0.1	9	0.0	7
Dominic Rhodes	34	0.2	17	0.2	7
Jacob Hester	11	0.0	8	0.9	7
Ricky Williams	41	0.3	13	0.0	7
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	33	0.5	6	0.0	7
Willis McGahee	43	0.2	12	0.0	7
JJ Arrington	21	0.3	19	0.1	6
Jerious Norwood	28	0.1	23	0.1	6
Darren McFadden	37	0.1	19	0.0	6
Justin Fargas	58	0.0	4	0.0	6
Mike Karney	1	0.9	3	0.0	6
Cadilac Williams	20	0.6	0	0.0	6
Fred Taylor	31	0.1	9	0.0	5
Maurice Morris	23	0.0	10	0.2	4
Julius Jones	36	0.0	5	0.0	4

QB Projections - Week 14

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:19:00 +0000

I put these together while trying to choke down an Amy's Veggie Loaf, so there is no telling what kind of mistakes I could have made, because it is hard for me to see straight right now. I mean, I try to eat healthy, and most of Amy's stuff is actually pretty good (the enchiladas and Matar Panaar especially), but this was just horrid. It tasted like someone put a bunch of vegetables in a food processor, then put the result in a loaf-type form - which I guess is pretty much what a Veggie Loaf is.

Enough of that, below are the picks. As always, guys with asterisks (*) next to their names need their injury status checked before you give them the start.

You can see that the TPV rating system agrees with PF101 on the Cassel sleeper pick, but not so much on Bulger. The Cardinals give up most of their red-zone TD's through the air, but I don't see the Rams getting into the red zone too often. We'll find out who was right (if either of us) on Sunday.

Name	Prj Comp	Prj Att	Prj P Yards	Prj P TDs	Prj Int	Fan Pts
Aaron Rodgers	21	34	242	3.1	0.8	28
Drew Brees	26	39	339	1.9	1.2	22
Kurt Warner	27	39	300	2.2	0.9	22
Matt Cassel	22	33	264	1.4	0.8	20
Peyton Manning	23	37	246	2.1	1.0	19
Jay Cutler	23	37	281	1.4	1.1	19
Kyle Orton	18	30	204	2.2	0.6	19
Tyler Thigpen	16	29	190	1.6	0.9	18
David Garrard	21	33	283	0.9	0.8	18
Sean Hill	17	28	240	1.5	0.6	18
Phillip Rivers	19	30	210	2.0	0.8	17
Donavon McNabb	22	37	247	1.4	0.8	17
Eli Manning	19	31	224	1.6	0.7	17
Tony Romo	21	33	251	1.5	0.9	17
Matt Ryan	17	28	241	1.3	0.5	17
Brett Favre	22	33	237	1.6	1.2	16
Chad Pennington	20	30	240	0.6	0.5	16
Gus Frerotte	17	29	216	1.5	1.3	16
Matt Schaub	22	32	224	1.1	1.1	15
Ben Roethlisberger	17	29	217	1.1	1.0	15
Jason Campbell	20	32	189	0.6	0.3	12
Jamarcus Russell	13	25	175	0.8	0.4	12
Joe Flacco	17	28	171	0.7	0.8	12
JP Losman	17	25	212	0.4	0.6	11
Ryan Fitzpatrick	21	35	150	0.2	0.9	11
Jeff Garcia	19	29	169	0.4	0.3	11
Kerry Collins	16	27	166	0.6	0.3	10
Daunte Culpepper	12	23	160	0.8	1.5	10
Jake Delhomme	16	27	162	0.7	0.8	9
Marc Bulger	16	28	147	0.5	0.9	8

Suspensions Rain Down and Other News

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 22:57:00 +0000

The NFL has brought down 4-game suspensions on 6 players for taking a dietary supplement spiked with the illegal substance Bumetanide.

Three of these suspensions will have an impact on fantasy football.

First off, Duece McAllister has been suspended. Hopefully, you were not planning on starting Duece, who has been averaging roughly 5 touches per game for the past several weeks, but this does mean that Pierre Thomas should maintain some value (10-15 touches per game), even as Reggie Bush is phased into the offense.

Also, Vikings defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams have been suspended. The Vikings have a great run defense (-34% TPV rating), and the ability of these monsters to be immovable objects on the offensive line is a big reason why. Fred Evans and the undersized Otis Grigsby are listed as the Willams' backups on the Vikings web site, and it is hard to believe that they will be able to clog the line (or the toilets) like Kevin and Pat. So an average running back that would have been an instant bench decision against the Vikings before this week might be worth a second look now. Keep on eye on this to see how it develops.

Other news heading into week 14:

Kellen Winslow (ankle), Carson Palmer (elbow), Ben Utecht (foot), and Plaxico Burress (dumbass-itis) have already been ruled out for this week.

Trent Edwards (groin), Ryan Grant (thumb), Marion Barber (toe), Ahmad Bradshaw (neck), and Clinton Portis (neck) all have injury situations that bear watching as the week wears on.

Matt Schaub looks likely to play this week, and Peyton Hillis will be the featured back in Denver, at least for one more game. After that, who knows what Shannahan will do.

Welcome, Pro Football 101

noreply@blogger.com (William Kehl) — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 22:39:00 +0000

You might notice the post below by our new contributor, Pro Football 101. We have decided to add another blogger to increase the amount of (useful) content on the site, especially in the light of the last few weeks, were my "real job" has not given me time to do much but put up weekly rankings. Anyway, hope you enjoy the increased content.

Of course, we now run the risk of making conflicting predictions, but if so, we will remedy it the way any good blog does - we will erase the bad prediction after the fact, and tout the fact that we were right!

Week 14 QB Fantasy Football Rankings

noreply@blogger.com (Pro Football 101) — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:09:00 +0000

Must Starts

1. Kurt Warner vs. St. Louis Rams. Warner and his offense have had a tough go of it these past two weeks, as they were beaten by better football teams from the NFC East, but this is the week that we begin to hear the Warner MVP chants again.

Heading back to Arizona, the hapless Rams come to town and bring with it its suspect defense. Look for Warner to locate his talented trio on the outside and eclipse the 300-yard mark with at least three TDs.

2. Peyton Manning vs. Cincinnati Bengals. I’m not sure what happened on Sunday, but Manning certainly disappointed many fantasy owners with his 125 yard, two INT performance vs. the Browns. And since his defense couldn’t get off the field, he had very little time in which to work with.

This week, back at home, we like Manning and his offense to bounce back against the Bengals and for the QB to throw for at least 250 with a couple of scores.

3. Aaron Rodgers vs. Houston Texans. The lone bright spot to this Packers team of late has been Rodgers and the passing game. They’re definitely not the reason why Green Bay is sitting at 5-7.

This week, they get the Texans, and with that, ample opportunities to put up big numbers in the passing game. Look for Rodgers to locate Jennings and Driver and post another solid day through the air.

4. Drew Brees vs. Atlanta Falcons. Even in an off game by Brees (three INTs vs. Tampa Bay), he still gets his as evidenced by the nearly 300 yards and two TDs he threw yesterday.

Against Atlanta, this is a football game of desperation; if the Saints lose, they are officially done in ‘08. Look for Brees to respond with another big game at home and put up the fantasy numbers (300 yards and a few scores) that we’re all accustomed to.

Sleepers

1. Matt Cassel vs. Seattle Seahawks. Cassel came crashing back to earth hard in Sunday’s loss to the Steelers. His 169 yards and four turnovers was not the type of game fantasy owners were hoping for.

This week, his Patriots travel out to Seattle in what should be a pretty entertaining offensive game. The Seahawks have been unable to stop anyone on defense, and that trend will continue this week.

2. Marc Bulger vs. Arizona Cardinals. With RB Steven Jackson in the lineup, the Rams are a completely different team. They can compete. His presence also creates balance for the offense and allows Bulger the ability to target his receivers for some big gains. The Cards are anything but world beaters on defense so expect Bulger to do well in Arizona and for Holt and Avery to be on the receiving end of some long gains.

Other matchups we like

1. Eli Manning vs. Philadelphia Eagles. With the absence of WR Plaxico Burress, teams are challenging Eli to beat them by putting eight and nine guys in the box. Eli has done just that. Look for DC Johnson to try this approach once again and once again, for Manning to put up solid numbers.

2. Brett Favre vs. San Francisco 49ers. The Jets are going to want to come out strong in this one after laying an egg to the Broncos on Sunday. Without having to worry about a strong 49ers’ pass rush, look for Favre to have time to locate his outside receivers and rookie TE Dustin Keller and for the end result to be strong.

3. Ben Roethlisberger vs. Dallas Cowboys. If star DE/LB DeMarcus Ware can’t go this weekend, that makes this Cowboys’ defense look entirely different. The lack of a consistent pass rush will allow Big Ben the time he needs to locate his talented group of receivers and he should be able to deposit at least two balls into the end zone.