Kirk's Market Thoughts

Timer Digest Top 10 Timers Update

2013-05-18T09:35:00.002-07:00

The most recent (May 13, 2013) issue of Timer Digest lists "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" as: Tied for 1st in the "Top Ten Timers" - 6 Months Tied for 6th in the "Top Ten Timers" - 1 YR Tied for 2nd in the "Top Ten Long Term Timers" - (2 Yrs) The "Featured Advisor" in this issue is James O. Rohrbach who writes "Investment Models, Inc." Timer Digest has been following "Investment Models,

Markets at Record Highs, Will They Continue Higher?

2013-05-13T08:01:00.000-07:00

Can the market keep going up without a major correction? Are we at a major top? Here are excerpts from what others are saying: "Despite the tremendous momentum in the market, there is still sufficient buying power to keep the current trend alive. And just as the crowd sets its collective mind on potentially disappointing economic data (as they did ahead of earnings season), a small string

2013 I-Bond Rates: May 1 through Oct 31, 2013

2013-05-06T12:58:00.001-07:00

From May 1, 2013 Announcement: The Bureau of the Public Debt today announced earnings rates for Series I Savings Bonds and Series EE Savings Bonds, issued from May 1, 2013 through October 31, 2013. I bond fixed rates are determined each May 1 and November 1. Each fixed rate applies to all I-bonds issued in the six months following the rate determination. The Current I Bond

Q1 GDP & ECRI Clarification on Recession Call

2013-04-30T07:44:00.003-07:00

On April 26, 2013, US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of real gross domestic product, GDP. Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "advance"

Market Trying To Bottom Here

2013-04-22T09:05:00.003-07:00

Bull markets do well with many three to five percent corrections. The latest pullback qualifies and this rather complicated chart showing Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels indicates the market is trying to make another bottom after penetrating its 50 day moving average or MA(50) on my chart. Recent High = $159.71 Recent Low = $153.55 Difference = $6.16 or 3.86% Click for full size

Sy Harding STS Unfavorable (Sell in May) Season Starts Today

2013-04-20T07:46:00.001-07:00

According to Sy Harding, author of Seasonal Timing Strategy™ (STS), "Riding the Bear" and "The Street Smart Report," now is the time to watch the MACD indicator to look for the favorable exit point from the market based on the "Seasons in the Sun Strategy." click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image Harding applies the

Jeremy Siegel & Ed Yardeni - The Bulls are Out

2013-04-11T09:37:00.002-07:00

Today the DOW and S&P500 are making new all time highs. CNBC had two bulls on who said the markets are not over-valued. Don't miss out! Subscribe now and get the April 2013 issue of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" for FREE! Jeremy Siegel, author of "Stocks for the Long Run" has the following targets S&P500 for 2013 => 1,700 DOW JONES for 2013 => 16,000 "Stocks are at their average

Maui Vacation Photos - 2013

2013-03-25T12:40:00.004-07:00

Aloha! Last week I returned from a "working vacation" in Maui. I went to look at some real estate for a potential investment and to windsurf. There was no wind but good waves so I used the time to improve my regular surfing skills beyond the single lesson on a big, slow board in tiny waves I took in 2006. The waves were big so I used a regular 8' surf board made of foam so I'd be safer

ECRI Stays with Recession Call

2013-03-12T01:17:00.002-07:00

ECRI made the rounds last week explaining why they still believe we are in a recession. Below is a summary from Sam of their appearances. Interview Summary In a few interviews this week we discussed ECRI’s recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. Each interview clip covers different aspects of that presentation as described below. CNBC Coincident indicators, including GDP, are

P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes Plus US Treasury Rates

2013-03-09T14:33:00.003-08:00

PE Ratios and Yields for the Dow Industrials, Dow Transportation, Dow Utility, Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 Indexes. From http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html U.S. Stocks >> Index Analysis >> P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes US Treasury Rates 5-YR UST Yield = 0.89% 10-YR UST Yield = 2.05% 30-YR UST Yield = 3.25% US Treasury Rates at a Glance and Treasury

Real S&P500 Price with Dividends Reinvested - Inflation Adjusted Returns

2013-03-08T07:30:00.003-08:00

This graph shows the real (Inflation adjusted) price of S&P 500 with dividends reinvested from 1870 through 2012. Chart source Silicon Investor This next graph shows my Explore Portfolio since inception in 1998, over 14 years ago. "Kirk's Two Investment Letters - Which is Best for You?" This table shows my "core" and my "Explore" portfolio values since January

Tom Hudson Farewell Message NBR

2013-03-04T07:22:00.002-08:00

The March 1 broadcast of the Nightly Business Report was the last for host Tom Hudson and many of the staff based in Miami, Florida who produced the show. I posted the news here on Feb. 21, 2012 MEDIA DECODER February 21, 2013, 4:22 pm CNBC to Purchase ‘Nightly Business Report’ “Nightly Business Report,” the pioneer public television series that has struggled in recent years, is

Jeff Tedford Highest Paid in California Leaves State for No Tax Reno, Nevada

2013-02-15T06:51:00.001-08:00

Jeff Tedford Leaves CA - Does he avoid California's new Millionaire Tax by leaving the state to not work? California Tax Rates Post Proposition 30 for 2012 and 2013 I just read that the former University of California Golden Bear head coach, Jeff Tedford, moved to Reno Nevada and is in the process of selling his home in Danville, CA. Former Cal football coach Jeff Tedford speaks out

February Reading List

2013-02-13T09:59:00.003-08:00

Here are some of my recent articlesMy web site: Feb 13 Dow Jones Industrial Average Adjusted For Inflation - Historical Chart Feb 12 Real Price of S&P Composite with Dividends Re-invested 1870-2012 Feb 11 100 Years of the Income Tax - Taxes today in 2013 vs Tax Rates in 1913 andSeeking Alpha Feb 12 SPY Soars And Gold Falls As U.S. Borrows 24.6 Cents Of Every Dollar Spent In Fiscal 2013 Feb 8

Laszlo Birinyi Predicts 1600 for S&P500 This Year

2013-02-05T10:03:00.000-08:00

Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates, was just on CNBC with a prediction the S&P500, now just at 1500, will reach 1,600 sometime during the year. His advice on how to play this was to buy December 160 SPY calls. "We decided early on in this cycle that this was going to be a four or six year bull market." He says the last stages are where things get "interesting" in that.... Read

DELL Dell Buyout Deal Details

2013-02-05T06:30:00.000-08:00

The just announced Dell takeover by Michael Dell and Silver Lake Partners is valued at $24.4B or $13.65 per share. Dell closed yesterday at $13.27 so this would be a premium of only 3%. More DELL Charts below Headlines: DELL: Dell in $24.4B founder-led deal to go private - AP DELL: Dell Confirms Plan To Go Private in $24.4 Billion Buyout Deal - at AllThingsD DELL: Dell to go private in

CA Taxes Too High to Invest or Live Here. Just ask Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods and Intel

2013-01-22T14:32:00.002-08:00

In the last election, CA voters voted to enact a retroactive tax hike of an additional 3.0% on its richest citizens for all of 2012. Those "only" making $250,000 a year will "only" have to pay an additional 1.0% for a total rate of 10.3% on ALL income (earned and capital gains are taxed at the same rate in Taxifornia.) We also raised our sales taxes so I now pay 8.625% in Santa Clara county.

Highlights of the Fiscal Cliff Deal

2013-01-02T08:30:00.000-08:00

The big "good news" for me is this makes the tax rates PERMANENT so we can plan for the future. The big "bad news" for me is this deal is a "joke" in that it kicks the can down the road where the can is unsustainable budget deficits to fund out of control government spending. See my article "SPY Soars As U.S. Borrowed 51.6¢ Of Every Dollar Spent In November 2012." — Current tax

Gartner Semiconductor Chip Forecasts Cut for 2012 and 2013

2012-12-14T07:20:00.001-08:00

Amid "ongoing economic and political uncertainty", yesterday Gartner lowered its growth projections for the global semiconductor market in 2012 and 2013, citing "economic headwinds and an inventory correction." Press Release: Gartner Says Worldwide Semiconductor Sales to Reach $311 Billion in 2013, a 4.5 Percent Increase from 2012 Semiconductor Growth Forecast Revised Down Amid Ongoing Economic

Super High King Tide at Palo Alto Baylands on 12-12-12

2012-12-12T16:22:00.000-08:00

I took these pictures today during the super high "King Tide" at the Palo Alto Baylands preserve on the San Francisco Bay. Best viewed with browser in full screen mode. FREE Kindle book today (12/12/12) only: Giving Back: Discover your values and put them into action through volunteering and donating Tides Sunrise: 7:13 Sunset: 16:54 (PST) 1121212 14:30 the moon is waning

Fiscal Cliff Changes and Their Impact on You

2012-12-11T07:31:00.001-08:00

What is the Fiscal Cliff and how does it impact you? I got this great summary in an email from Terry Savage that I want to pass on to my readers. Savage Truth: Cliff Hanger It’s down to the wire, and they don’t seem to be taking it seriously in Washington. At least not seriously enough to come up with some middle ground that will change the trend of huge deficits and increasing government

Jim Cramer is Bearish Intel and Why I Bought INTC

2012-12-06T08:22:00.001-08:00

Now and then I like to watch Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" show on CNBC to see what direction the wind is blowing. That is, I think Cramer has a very entertaining show, especially if you like shouting and nobody taking the other side of his arguments, but it seems he echos what is "group think" that tells you "why" a stock is up or down, but does very little for making good, long-term decisions.

GeoGlobal GSPC Jean Paul Roy Modi Dispute

2012-12-06T06:30:00.000-08:00

Yesterday that was a comprehensive article in India's Economic Times about GeoGlobal Resources (GGR) problems in India with GSPC, the Gujarat State Petroleum Corp, and Jean Paul Roy, GGR's former CEO. The way things are in India, I've reposted most of the article below in the event it "vanishes." GeoGlobal’s Jean Paul Roy, who part-owns GSPC blocks, has a history of controversies AHMEDABAD:

DIA:GLD Ratio - Dow Gold Ratio

2012-12-04T07:09:00.005-08:00

Yesterday I published an article at Seeking Alpha titled "Dow/Gold Ratio Remains Low On Historical Basis." One reader suggested I include dividends in the DOW chart. This chart shows the ETFs for the DOW (DIA) and Gold (GLD) with dividends included. Quotes and Charts for Gold & GLD (the ETF for Gold) Another reader thought the long term chart in my article titled "

California 2012 & 2013 Tax Rates

2012-11-30T12:58:00.001-08:00

Due to passage of Proposition 30, the tax rate for 2012 income in California is 13.3% for taxpayers with state taxable income in excess of $250,000. This change from the November 6, 2012 election is retroactive to income earned for the full year, since January 1, 2012. Here is a summary of 2012 and 2013 California tax rates. State sales tax rates are also increasing another .25%, up to a