The Gatorade Dump

Calling a semi-bluff

2006-10-25T15:39:00.000-07:00

Low limit live cash game

Last night I played some $1/$1 NL cash game with a max buy in of $150 and a min. buy in of $40. Everyone bought in for at least $80, and the game was surprisingly decent for a cash game and not a lot of insane raising. Most live cash games will require you to pay 10BB to see a standard flop after one raise. This game was playing decently tight for the first 2 rounds I sat in for, and I decided to take advantage.

Playing the amateur

3 people limp in front of me, and I look down at 9 10 offsuit. I decide to steal this pot and raise to $7. I expect either A) to win $5 in blinds or B) have 1 caller and win after the flop. The blinds fold, but the first limper called, and I was very unfamiliar with his play. He seemed pretty tight, and not very tricky, so I knew I was in good shape. The other two limpers thought for awhile but folded.

Flop: 9 8 3 (1 heart)

My opponent checks to me. This was a very good board for me, especially since I was going to bet this no matter what hit. I knew before the board even fell that I was betting $15 which was an almost full sized pot bet with the pot at $18. To my surprise my opponent called. I thought he could have a set of 3s or maybe pocket 10s, but I still felt that I was good.

Turn: King (heart)

My opponent very quickly bet $30. The king sure seems threatening, but I wondered what my opponent would call a preflop raise with and then check call the flop and bet out on the turn. A flopped set sure seemed to make sense. In fact I was very close to mucking my hand because this is actually a very standard way to play a flopped set. I then studied my opponent very carefully before acting. He refused to look at me and just stared at the table without flinching. He seemed very nervous and looked like he wanted to go home. He wasn't saying a word, I just knew he didn't have a set, and was calling the flop to bluff the turn.

With this read if he called the flop with KQ which is very possible, he will fold on the turn if I go over the top. He will have to put me on at worst AA. It seemed like a standard play. There was $68 in the pot before I even acted and with $90 total it could be a great steal for me with $60 ontop. Sure my opponent will be getting better than 2 to 1 to call, but its a cash game, and no one wants to lose their buy in on good odds. $60 is a lot and KQ seems like an easy fold. I go with my read of the player as weak and not with my read on his actions for a flopped set.

I push all in, he insta calls, and I really am ashamed of my hand and don't want to flip my pathetic 10 9 over. He then SLAMS down Q 10 of hearts for a gutshot straight draw and a flush draw with a gutshot straight flush draw. His 10 is dead, but can also win with a queen. I am still a 2 to 1 favorite, and am really questioning his auto call, and frankly the whole play on his part. The river bricks out and he leaves. The rest of the table told me he is a huge DONKEY that busts out in their cash game every week, or wins a huge pot and then donates it all back.

Poker Quiz

You are playing a $1/$2 NL cash game. The board reads K Q 7 2 all rainbow. You hold J 10. Your opponent bets $20 into a pot of $90. He is a very tight player, and you know he has at least a K, but will not fold if you push. Which of the following is the correct play, and explain your reason (you both have $150 not in this hand)?

A) Call in hopes of hitting the river
B) Fold, to save your money
C) Semi-bluff and inflate the pot which can also steal the pot

I will give my explaination later.

Weekend Poker Update

2006-10-16T08:41:00.000-07:00

This weekend I went to Turning Stone a casino in upstate New York where you have to be 18 or older to gamble. This was the weekend of my 20th birthday, and one of my friends already won a ticket to their weekly $300+40 tourney, and offered to sell me the ticket for $100. Despite a decently fast structure I decide to buy the ticket.

We start with 300 chips with 30 minute blinds, here are the first few rounds:
25/50
50/100
75/ 150
100/200

As you can see blinds go up very quickly, especially with 30 minute levels. I decided to play very aggressively and splash around in a lot of pots. Here was a very interesting hand I played about 25 minutes in coupled with some analysis.

A player in the Cutoff (position to the right of the button) raises to 125. I look down at 8 5 of diamonds on the button and call, fully knowing the 2 blinds will fold, because they are super tight.

Flop: 8 6 5 (1 diamond)

Opponent leads out with a bet of 600 which was 2 times the pot. I reraise him to 1800 trying to just take the pot and see where I stand. I was at 7100 before this hand started. My opponent had about 500. My opponent called.

Analysis: My opponents hand screams overpair. I strongly think he comes over the top with a set and he probably wants to take a card off before pushing because i could easily have a hand like A 7 and be a coinflip vs him if he pushes with two 10's.

Turn: 7 (diamond)

This card is both a money card for me and possibly a terrible card. If my opponent has two 9s for a straight, I am a dog with 4 cards for a boat, 9 for a flush and then 3 for the same straight giving me a 34% chance to win but a 2 to 1 dog.

Analysis: My read on my opponent was overpair and only 1 overpair would hurt me here. My opponent has no chance to make a full house now. My opponent might be scared of this card, but at the same time I cannot let my opponent get a free card with two 10s.

Action: I go all in and my opponent mucks and shows the Ace of diamonds. My opponent either had the nut flush draw or 2 aces. I made the right bet, because regardless smy opponent did not have me beat and no point in letting him draw.

Tournament summary: 250 people bought in to this tourney, and top 30 make the money. I finished in 24th place. I was a big stack most of the tournament. I got busted with two 7s all in preflop for about 20 big blinds vs. two 4s. If I won that hand I probably would have made the final table which paid a profit of $1000+. I cashed for $600 which is a nice profit for a couple hours worth of work.

Strategy corner:

This will be a new segment in my poker posts. Here I will make a post about strategy and ask for YOUR input. This could be a hand or a tournament structure or something on those lines.

This posts problem: I might be playing in a very juicy game in my dorm and here is the structure. 1/2NL cash game min buy in 60 max buy in 300. I was thinking about bringing $100. The players are very loose (especially post flop) and are super aggressive. They make you not want to gamble and will raise to $11 preflop. They will also call of a ton of money with two 4s to gamble on a coinflip.

My question is: How do you play these guys (bring more money or is 100 good). Play super tight and wait for the cards. Play really passive and limp a lot and try to hit flops. Be hyper aggressive with good hands and let them make mistakes. These are all options. Is it possible to beat a game like this without hitting cards?

I will give you guys 2 hand scenerios about this game. One of my buddies is super tight and bought in for 100. He basically got blinded down most of his stack. Made a preflop raise with AQ got called. Flop was A K Q and the money got all in vs J 10 (guy called 11 preflop with J10).

Another hand my friend raises with A Q to 11 another reraises to 40. My friend is on tilt shoves for 80 and the opponent calls showing QQ.

This will provide some help for you guys....how should I play these guys?

Online Poker Ban

2006-10-05T21:21:00.000-07:00

Let me give a brief recap over the history of poker over the past 10 or so years.

1996 or so-A few online poker websites come out such as Pokerroom, that are relatively small sites with pretty low stakes. Very few players are using these sites, which results in not many fish and very low traffic.

2002-Robert Varkonyi Wins the main event. A true amateur besting the main event field.

-The world poker tour begins, adding another medium for everyday people to see poker through the television. Fancy presentation alongside top poker players makes big time Pros famous such as Daniel Negreanu and Gus Hanson.

2003-The big internet boom. The biggest thing to happen to poker since the world series of poker first started. A man named Chris Moneymaker wins the main event besting about 850 people to win the tournament, outlasting Dan Harrington and Sam Farha, the last 2 players he eliminated. Moneymaker turned $40 into 2.5 million. In addition a huge bluff on the 2nd to last hand made Moneymaker famous.

-This year was also the beginning of poker personalities. Guys like Phil Hellmuth are now big personalities much like TO is in football. Hellmuth is known for berating opponents play as well as being super arrogant. Viewers now have favorite players as well as least favorites, and the shows are more entertaining.

2004-The world series of poker expands to roughly 2,400 people which is more people than all previous main events combined. The field is more than 1/2 online qualifiers, which results in a field that is thinner on pros at the top. Dan Harrington somehow finishes in 4th. Matt Dean finishes I believe 5th, and had only been playing poker for a very brief time. The "anyguy" can do it mentality has officially been brought to poker. Greg Raymer wins $5 million first prize. There is also a tournament of champions this year.

-Tuan Le bursts onto the poker scene winning the WPT Foxwoods and WPT championship events. This is over $3.5 million in prize money in about a months time.

2005-The main event doubles in size to 5,600 entrants, one is named Steve Dannenmann. Steve is an accountant from Maryland, who plays a casual game of poker. Him and a buddy Jerry Ditzel split his $10,000 entry fee, and will split whatever winnings Steve received. Steve somehow finishes 2nd, with a high spirited style, filled with laughing, and a very tight aggressive playing style. Truly any person can win at poker.

2006-8,773 people enter this years main event. There are not only 4 day 1's but 2 day 2's, and very, very few players with names towards the top. 3 professionals wind up in the top 20 but only 1 makes it in the top 15. The online amateurs outnumber the pros, and the online players are improving. A man named Jamie Gold truly owned this tournament leading from the 4th day to win the tournament.

2 DAYS AGO:

Bill Frist, a senator attached an online poker ban to a bill on port security. This bill was going to pass 100%, and any senator voting against it will be seen as taking a very soft side on terrorism. Currently a group is being brought together, go to www.pokerplayersalliance.org/ and join for $20 and help make a difference. For further information go to Daniel Negreanu's blog at http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-journal.php?subaction=showfull&id=1160021040&archive=&start_from=&ucat=& and scroll to the bottom.

What this means to poker:

While the WPT and WSOP will still exist many big tournaments will no longer exist. Just last week pokerstars had their "World Series Of Online Poker" which concluded with a $3 million guaranteed $2600 buy in event. JC Tran won the event following a 6 way chop in which he received a prize of $670,000 (or so). Events like this simply cannot happen without poker in the US. Poker WORLDWIDE will continue online and the WSOP and WPT might become much more international.

Tournaments will now become significantly smaller, more to the size of events in 2004. Poker is much more popular than in 2004, but now buying in will be more difficult. You can no longer enter a simple $160 double shoot out, or a $650 tourney and be in the Main Event. You now have to go to Vegas and buy in.

The main differences of online poker and live poker:

Tells: Live poker you get a ton of information, based upon how the player acts. Online you look for betting patterns, and how long a player acts on their hand.

Game Speed: Live poker deals roughly 35 hands and hour at a full table. Online I average around 100 hands an hour and I can play normally up to 6 tables at a time. That means for a 10 hour period I can see roughly 6,000 hands.

Being comfortable: Very few people live near a casino. Everyone has at least 1 computer. One can simply play poker in class or in the library or whenever or wherever you want.

Tilt: In live games it is pretty easy to put some people on tilt. Mike Matusow can just yell and people will be off their game. Matusow cannot insult players through typing in the chat box. This simply will not work.

Rake: In many live games you get a ton of rake. You will enter tourneys that have a 50+20 buy in. Online the rake would be 50+4. While I for one have donated around $10,000 worth of rake, I also receive some nice bonuses with my player points as well as rakeback. In cash games some sites have a max rake of $1 for low limits and $3 for high limits. That means a $10,000 pot would have a rake of $3, which is very low. Some casinos will rake 10% up to 20 Big blinds, so a game of 1/2 NL hold em could have a pot of $40 but with a $4 rake, it has a pot of $36, while online it would be a pot of $39 a $3 difference on a medium pot.

Comments:

Feel free to leave comments. I for one and very depressed over the online poker ban. I feel that if I feel like wasting my money playing cards on my computer then it is my right. If I want to buy 1,000 pairs of shoes and stuff them in a closet it is my right. I understand many kids dropped out of college to play online poker, but if online poker is illegal, then these kids have no job. Many people make livings off online poker, and you cannot take their jobs away. To quote Al Krux, "sometimes those chips mean your families grocery money."

Pradamaster and Jumbomaster's Week 3 picks

2006-09-23T13:02:00.000-07:00

Week 2 was a good week for Prada. He went 10-6 on the week, a solid performance overall. When you factor in Ron's 8-8 week, it was an even better week for Prada, as he sliced 2 games off Ron's lead in the standings, winning the San Francisco-St. Louis game and failing to buy the upset bids of the Cardinals and the Jets.

Onto the picks!

Carolina at Tampa Bay (+3)

Prada's Pick: Carolina. Of the two teams, Tampa Bay is more likely to be 0-3 with their horrendous offense and overrated defense. Carolina could have easily won last week and may even be getting Steve Smith back.

Jumbo's Pick: Carolina

Baltimore at Cleveland (+6.5)

Prada's Pick: Baltimore. Even at Cleveland, the Ravens defense combined with the Browns offense should result in a blowout.

Jumbo's Pick: Baltimore

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-2)

Prada's Pick: Pittsburgh. If they lose, the Steelers would not only be 1-2, but also would potentially be down 2 games in the AFC North to the Bengals and the Ravens. Knowing this, I expect them to play with reckless desperation against Cincinnati and win.

Jumbo's Pick: Pittsburgh

Detroit at Green Bay (+6.5)

Prada's Pick: Detroit. One of these weeks, that passing game has to come along. Against Green Bay's secondary, I see it happening here.

Jumbo's Pick: Green Bay

Tennessee at Miami (-10.5)

Prada's Pick: Miami. That spread is really high, but the Titans are a woeful offensive and defensive team. I expect Miami to wake up and beat them by more than 10.

Jumbo's Pick: Tennessee

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7)

Prada's Pick: Indianapolis. Jacksonville's pass defense hasn't really proven themselves as much as the run defense this season. I expect Indy to throw for enough TDs to make this a 10-14 point win.

Jumbo's Pick: Jacksonville

New York Jets at Buffalo (-5.5)

Prada's Pick: Jets. Buffalo's offense is too inept for that spread.

Jumbo's Pick: Jets

Chicago vs. Minnesota (+3)

Prada's Pick: Chicago. I've been catching a lot of flack for picking against the Bears, but I think Minnesota has been a bit lucky in their two wins this year and are a flawed 2-0 team. Chicago's newfound passing game should be able to have their way again with that banged-up Minnesota secondary.

Jumbo's Pick: Chicago

Washington at Houston (+4)

Prada's Pick: Washington. Clinton Portis is back healthy, which should (key word, should) lead to an easy victory over the porous Texans.

Jumbo's Pick: Washington

Philadelphia at San Francisco (+6)

Prada's Pick: San Francisco. The Niners are frisky offensively and Phily lost their best pass rusher. I say the Eagles win by a field goal.

Jumbo's Pick: Philadelphia

New York Giants at Seattle (-3.5)

Prada's Pick: Seattle. The Giants struggled for most of the game against the Eagles before their miracle comeback, and still especially struggled in the secondary. With newcomer Deion Branch, the Seahawks have more weapons to use to exploit that weakness.

Jumbo's Pick: New York Giants

St. Louis at Arizona (-4.5)

Prada's Pick: Arizona. At home, the Cardinals should pass all over St. Louis and win fairly easily.

Jumbo's Pick: St. Louis

Denver at New England (-6.5)

Prada's Pick: New England. The Broncos have not looked good offensively all year and I don't expect things to turn around on the road at New England.

Jumbo's Pick: New England

Atlanta at New Orleans (+3)

Prada's Pick: New Orleans. Both teams have top-notch running games, but I trust the steady hand of Drew Brees more than Michael Vick. More importantly, this will be the first game back in the Superdome, and you know the Saints will play with tons of passion.

Ron's Pick: Atlanta

Season Records
Jumbo: 18-14
Prada: 16-16

BIG BLOG NEWS!!!!!!!!

2006-09-21T23:14:00.000-07:00

With the NBA Season around the corner, I decided that it would probably be a good time to act on my love for the Wizards and start a Wizards blog. You see, even though I love talking sports, my ultimate dream job is to be the Wizards beat writer-or at least cover the Wizards for a living. I'm going through four years of college to hopefully prepare myself for a career as a sportswriter, and a great way to practice my writing would be to cover the team I'd love to cover for my career in a blog.

So please head on over to the blog. It's called Bullets Fever, after the 1978 championship team, the last Wizards/Bullets team to win the title.

I'll still be writing here. Like Zach over at The Big Picture and Twins15 over at Complete Sports, I still intend to at least try to keep my general sports blog. Monday/Tuesday Morning Long-Snapper will continue, Ron and I will keep making our picks, and I'll prolly have some extensive college hoops coverage. But I think I'll probably end up throwing more attention at Bullets Fever, ideally.

The url is bulletsfever.blogspot.com. Give it a look!

-Pradamaster

Tuesday Night Long-Snapper: Week 2 Edition

2006-09-19T21:33:00.000-07:00

We apologize for the delay, but it's finally here. The Gatorade Dump's ~~Monday~~ Tuesday ~~Morning~~ Night Long-Snapper, Week 2 edition! In this week's edition, we discuss the importance of Week 2, attempt to separate between the contenders and the pretenders, talk to Grade A asshole Jay Mariotti, and take a quick look at Week 3's huge, huge games.

Let's get into it!

Monday Morning Long-Snapper, Week 2 Edition

Other than the playoffs, it's entirely possible that Week 2 is the most important week in the NFL. In the past 3 years, only the 2003 Eagles have started 0-2 and made the playoffs. The Chargers made a run at the postseason after starting 0-2 last year, but fell just short. History is therefore not on the side of Carolina, Tampa Bay, Washington, Detroit, Miami, or Kansas City.

Fear not Skins fans...at least we still have last year.

More incredibly, however, Week 2 gives us a fantastic indication of who's going to be playing in the postseason. While the preseason may be useless, and Week 1 a bit premature, Week 2 is the first (and possibly only) week that gives us a true idea of postseason contenders. You can look no further than the Washington-Dallas game from last year. If Santana Moss doesn't make those two catches, the Skins are 9-7 and Dallas is 10-6. The Cowboys would have made the playoffs; the Skins would not. Of the 12 postseason teams last year, 10 won in Week 2. The only teams that lost fell to fellow playoff teams (New England to Carolina and Jacksonville to Indianapolis). Certainly, this knowledge is a very good omen for teams like the Giants, Jacksonville, Seattle, San Diego, Denver, Dallas, and Minnesota, among others.

That being said, there are still 14 games and 15 weeks of football to be played. A lot can still happen between now and the start of the postseason.

Press Report

Each week, Pradamaster and Jumbomaster sit down with a talking head as they ask us questions. This week, we sat down with Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun Times and ESPN's Around the Horn. Ron and I both are now deaf for listening to Jay yell.

Hello idiots and sports-wannabes, this is Jay Marrioti. I may be universally hated, but if there's one thing I know, it's sports, and all the Ozzie Guillens and Woody Paiges can take that and stick it right where it came from.

Anyway, since I never go into the locker room, I don't really know how to ask an actual question. That's okay, because you both know what I say stands.

1. I'm also too lazy to do my research with the Chicago Bears, but I'll just leave you boys with this comment on your sad excuse of a weblog.

"I think your constant underestimation of the Bears shows a serious misunderstanding of the game and a stubborness that no serious sports fan should have. Frankly it makes me wonder why you guys are making football predictions at all. Not only is the Bears defense completely dominant, but their offense showed they can take over a Lions defense you guys raved about. Give them some credit and stop being so stubborn with your initial criticisms that have been proven unfounded." -Anonymous

Jumbomaster: While the Bears defense surely has looked impressive, their competition has not. Green Bay and Detroit are two of the weakest teams in the NFL. If Chicago shut down the Indianapolis offense then it would be a different story. I will say that Chicago has a top defense, maybe not the best in the league but certainly up there, and barring no injuries they should be back in the playoffs due to an improved Rex Grossman.

Pradamaster: Typical Jay...too lazy to do his own work. Seriously though, I think I may need to hightail my way off the Detroit Lions NFC North Championship bandwagon ASAP. The theme of this edition of the long-snapper is to place a lot of importance in Week 2 games. Chicago has shown that they have a legitimate offense that--while not dominant against teams not named the Packers or Lions--can at least give them enough production to win if their defense lets them down. Next week will be an interesting test against Minnesota, but this is now three strong Rex Grossman games in a row, if you count the playoff game against the Panthers. Maybe the Bears are a legitimate threat.

2. Let's talk about the major eagles choke job, why don't we. 24-7 turns into 30-24. Clearly, the eagles miss TO and were stupid to even think about giving him up. I mean, they're a goddam mess right now!

Jumbomaster: The Eagles were victim to bad luck this past week, and being unable to run out the clock. Brian Westbrooks fumble, and Burress's fumble into the endzone were 2 very unlucky plays. Philadelphia does not miss TO because Stallworth is playing very well, as is LJ Smith, and Reggie Brown as well. Westbrook has a swollen knee, but has also played well. The Eagles biggest hole is actually on defense, with Lito Sheppard out as well as Jevon Kearse done for the season. If Philadelphia cannot stop the run they will not make the playoffs, because they are not a running offense, and as a result they will lose the time of possession every game. Look for Jim Johnson to show his best coaching as this team wins the division without Kearse.

Pradamaster: I hate to bring this game up again (who am I kidding), but this game reminds me so much of the Dallas-Skins game last year. As we mentioned already, one spell, one game, can make all the difference in this league. Week 2 is the most critical week of the season, and the Giants got a huge boost with this win, especially considering next week's game against Seattle. T.O. is not the problem Marrioti. He's stinking it up in Dallas. The problem is the defense, and with Jevon Kearse out for the year, that's a major loss for Phily. Their pass defense is remarkably thin now. They will need to blitz too many guys to get a good pass rush, exposing their secondary.

3. Dallas loses in Week 1, Phily chokes to the Giants, the Skins score 0 offensive touchdowns in Week 2. What happened to the great nfc east that we were supposed to see? Clearly the division is the worst in football.

Jumbomaster: For those who do not know, I predicted the Redskins to have a very bad season, so this is no surprise to me. While the Redskins have been very bad, the other 3 teams have looked very good. While they other 3 teams are all 1-1 they all have good QBs and good RBs and even WRs. These 3 teams are very good, and the NFC East is not overrated.

Pradamaster: Rubbing salt in the wound Jay, real classy. The NFC East is exactly what I expected it to be. Four evenly matched teams beating each other up over and over again. None of these teams are going to be 12-4, but they're also not going to be 4-12 (except the Skins maybe). I like the Giants to come out now thanks to that Week 2 win this week, but it will be a tight one the entire season.

4. Kansas City and Denver may be two of the most pathetic teams in football. I mean, how does a Mike Shanahan team not even score a TD and still WIN!? The AFC West, long seen as a top-notch division, sucks. San Diego is the only legitimate team.

Jumbomaster: I think it is too early to tell on the Kansas City Chiefs as well as the Denver Broncos. Both teams have not looked good this season, but they both have decent defenses with a coach that loves to run. It is simply too early to count them out.

Pradamaster: San Diego certainly looks like the clear favorite, but the Broncos should be there until the very end. With all the new faces (Mike Bell, Javon Walker) on offense, they will learn how to gell and figure their games out. The Jay Cutler watch needs to stop until the Broncos go into a serious tailspin.

5. Tell me, what the hell was up with that Monday Night game? How do the defending champions of the National Football League fail to score against the pathetic Jacksonville Jaguars? Bill cowher is the most overrated coach in football.

Jumbomaster: I think Big Ben was not ready to play this past week. Combining this with a run that was unable to work led the Pittsburgh offense to 0 plays inside the opponents 40 yard line as well as 0, that's right, 0 rushing first downs. Pittsburgh's offense was simply horrendous, but for as bad as the offense was, the defense was simply stellar. 9 points on Monday night at Jacksonville is quite impressive especially considering Big Ben had 2 Ints. Pittsburgh has shown a lot of weakness these first 2 weeks, and with the toughest division in football things go uphill. Pittsburgh has a ton of weapons on offense between Parker, and Najeh Davenport, as well as a slew of receivers and tight ends. When the QB doesn't play well the offense does not play well, and Big Ben had a bad game. Look for him to bounce back.

Pradamaster: It's hard to believe I'm saying this. Pittsburgh misses Jerome Bettis. Willie Parker can't handle the load on his own, and Najeh Davenport and Duce Staley are no Bettis. When the running game struggles, Big Ben struggles, especially when you consider it was his first game back. All the credit in the world has to go to the Jaguars, but until Pitt can find some offense, they could easily be running third in the three-horse AFC North race.

Jumbomaster's Fantasy Studs and Duds

STUDS

Peyton Manning: 26-38, 400 passing yards, 3 touchdowns
Rex Grossman: 20-27, 289 passing yards, 4 touchdowns
Eli Manning: 31-43, 276 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception
Rudi Johnson: 145 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
Baltimore Defense: 6 points allowed, 6 sacks, 1 safety, 3 interceptions, 3 fumble recoveries

DUDS

Edgerrin James: 64 rushing yards, 33 receiving yards
Randy Moss: 32 receiving yards
Terrell Owens: 19 receiving yards, 1 injured thumb
Willie Parker: 20 rushing yards, 6 receiving yards
Tiki Barber: 51 rushing yards, 57 receiving yards

Crystal Ball

A quick look back at Week 2 and a look ahead to Week 3.

Prada: Alright Ron, so Week 2 is in the books, and while only 1 team in the last three years has made the playoffs after an 0-2 start, we can still hold out hope for our Skins
Jumbo: The Washington Redskins have as good of a chance of making the playoffs as the refs of the Oklahoma-Oregon game have of refereeing the national championship game
Prada: Depressing, but it may be true

Prada: Still, Week 2 is the week where we start to figure out trends and we start to realize who the true contenders are
Prada: So I ask you this Ron. Pick 5 teams that have a legitimate shot to win the Super Bowl, and tell me why they will win
Jumbo: 1. Baltimore Ravens-They have an offense, and the scariest defense I have seen since their 200 defense
Prada: They have also played Oakland and Tampa Bay. Worth mentioning
Jumbo: 2. Seattle Seahawks-They have given up 13 points this year against Arizona and Detroit, 2 teams who supposedly have decent offenses. Also they have the best wideout tandem in the league and last years MVP.
Jumbo: 3. Jacksonville Jaguars-Last night they showed they are for real. Their defensive line is scary with Stroud, and Fred Taylor looks healthy for once. This team will be considered over-rated all year, but I would have to play a team that went 12-4 last year.
Prada: Jacksonville definitely showed me something last night, even if I didn't watch
Jumbo: 4. Indianapolis Colts-Arguably one of the best teams EVER last season gets very unlucky against Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Joseph Addai is playing very well, alongside Peyton Manning and his slew of weapons. This defense is young and fast and home field advantage will make this team very tough to beat.
Prada: Who do you take in the AFC South? Indy or Jacksonville?
Jumbo: I think it will be a great race, I will go with the Colts for now, just because Manning is better than Leftwich.
Prada: We shall see who gets the upper hand next week
Jumbo: 5. Pittsburgh Steelers-You can't pick the top 5 teams and not have the champs in there. The Steelers are back this year and although don't seem very good through weeks 1 and 2, they are just getting over some injuries. Look for Heath Miller to break out alongside Santonio Holmes, as Pittsburgh makes another run.
Prada: Your bias always shines through. Pittsburgh can't win if they can't score

Prada: Anyway, don't forget about a couple other 2-0 teams
Prada: Atlanta has looked really good so far and finally look like they've figured out how to use Vick
Prada: More importantly, they're already 2-0 in the division and two games up on Carolina
Jumbo: And don't forget the New Orleans S-A-I-N-T-S SAINTS SAINTS SAINTS
Prada: Also, don't forget about my new bandwagon team, Cincinnati
Prada: And finally, what about Chicago? They certainly showed me something with that 34 point explosion this week
Jumbo: Also, Phillip Rivers and the surprising Chargers.
Prada: Of course
Jumbo: Honestly, Chicago has faced some weak competition.
Prada: It's true. But so have the Chargers, Falcons, and Ravens
Prada: In fact, the only 2-0 teams to have played teams that are 1-1 so far are Jacksonville, New England, and Seattle
Jumbo: I guess those teams are "weak" because they lost.
Prada: Anyway, there still is a jumbled picture, but we have an idea

Prada: And this brings us to next week. If last Saturday was Separation Saturday in college football, this coming Sunday has to be the NFL's Separation Sunday. There are so many key games between contenders
Prada: Let's start off with the aforementioned AFC South battle. Jacksonville travels to Indianapolis. Can the Jags get the win?
Jumbo: I think so. Jacksonville has a very good defense that can put pressure on Peyton Manning. The issue is that they will not hold the Colts to 0 points. Can Jacksonville put up 17 points against the Colts, I don't know.
Prada: Will they? I'm holding you at gunpoint here
Jumbo: I don't think so. The receivers don't look good enough, they dropped a bunch of passes and they took no big shots down the field.
Prada: Bold prediction here
Prada: Jacksonville 14, Indianapolis 12. Colts are held out of the end zone. Bill Simmons rants about how big a choker Peyton Manning is. Pandemonium in Indy

Jumbo: I think a huge game this week is Chicago @ Minnesota.
Prada: Yes, Chicago Minnesota is big. Two teams neither of us liked in the pre-season
Jumbo: I am starting to be a big Minnesota fan. Granted they should have lost last week, but they still hung in there.
Prada: So you like the Vikes?
Jumbo: I do, but also, Rex Grossman was very impressive last week, putting up 4 TDs
Prada: He sure was, where did that come from?
Prada: I honestly think Minnesota got lucky in both Week 1 and Week 2. I like Chicago to roll, throwing all over the poor Minnesota secondary. 24-13 is the final score.

Prada: Finally, no Tuesday Morning Long Snapper would be complete without a Steelers game to talk about. Cincy comes to town riding high after two blowout wins. Could Pittsburgh really go to 1-2?
Jumbo: Its very possible. If Big Ben is healthy, I think Pittsburgh rolls in this one. Pittsburgh secondary is very under-rated and they should perform very well against Cincinnati, because Rudi will not be able to run.
Jumbo: I think this game will be very tight, much like Pittsburgh’s game last week. Look for a kicking affair where Pittsburgh wins 24-21 all field goals.
Prada: 8 field goals?
Jumbo: vs. 7 field goals
Prada: Maybe I should pick up Jeff Reed and Shayne Graham in my fantasy leagues
Prada: I love Cincy, they're my pick from the AFC. But Pittsburgh is a desperate team this week. If they lose, and Baltimore wins (which will most likely happen), they'll be 1-2 and 2 games back of both Cincinnati and Baltimore. They won't let that happen
Prada: Steelers 27, Bengals 24

Prada: And we haven't even discussed some other games, like NY-Seattle (Seahawks kick ass), New England-Denver (Broncos suck) and the surprising Monday night game with unbeatens Atlanta and New Orleans
Jumbo: Matt Stovers where its at, my MVP!!!
Prada: Whatever you say

Prada: Anyway, that concludes another Tuesday Morning Long-Snapper. We'll see you next week!

Delay!

2006-09-18T19:47:00.000-07:00

The Monday Morning Long-Snapper will come tomorrow because I am a) sick as balls and b) writing a paper. So Ron and I will be back tomorrow with our customary preview of week 2, chat with some talking head, and our fantasy studs and duds.

-Pradamaster

Pradamaster and Jumbomaster's Week 2 picks

2006-09-17T09:40:00.000-07:00

The contest may not be over, but if Week 1 was any indication, Ron should have no trouble getting the free dinner. Ron went a solid 10-6 in Week 1, calling the St. Louis upset and the Minnesota upset along the way. Prada struggled and limped to a 6-10 record after missing (get this), the first six games. Prada hopes to turn it around in Week 2.

Onto the picks! Home team in caps.

Prada's Pick: Tampa Bay (+5.5) over ATLANTA

Atlanta isn't nearly as good as they seemed last week and Tampa Bay isn't nearly as bad as they were last week. Tampa has historically owned Michael Vick, and I don't see it changing.

Ron's Pick: Tampa Bay

Atlanta destroyed Carolina this week, but I think Tampa's defense will come to form this week and slow down Vick and company. Although Tampa may lose, it may be by a FG, so I am going with them.

Prada's Pick: BALTIMORE (-11.5) over Oakland

Oakland is woeful. I'd be shocked if they won more than 3 games this season.

Ron's Pick: Baltimore

I know this seems weird, but Baltimore is playing the best football in the NFL and Oakland is playing the worst. This should be a 27-0 shutout. Pretty easy pick.

Prada's Pick: Detroit (+8.5) over CHICAGO

Detroit showed something with their defense last week and I expect their offense to get better every week. As I said on "Intermission," the Bears will have trouble scoring 8.5 points to match the spread.

Ron's Pick: Detroit

Last week Detroit gave up 9 points and lost, and Chicago has a weak offense. Look for a close Chicago win.

Prada's Pick: CINCINNATI (-11.5) over Cleveland

Cincy is my new bandwagon team. This is a special team, I'm telling you.

Ron's Pick: Cincinnati

Although Cleveland almost won last week, that was against New Orleans. Carson Palmer exploads this week making Cleveland fans have to wait for another year.

Prada's Pick: New Orleans (-1.5) over GREEN BAY

It's pretty sad to see Brett Favre being an underdog to New Orleans in his own stadium, but the spread really should be a lot higher. New Orleans has a dynamite offense that will run circles on this pathetic Green Bay defense.

And by the way, I'm never picking Green Bay again this year.

Ron's Pick: New Orleans

Last week Green Bay was so bad. I am tempted to pick them this week, but I will go with the Saints to win by a touchdown.

Prada's Pick: INDIANAPOLIS (-13.5) over Houston

These spreads are so ridiculously high, but then again, we're talking about a Colts team that may be the only team capable of consistently covering a spread like this.

Ron's Pick: Indianapolis

I really feel like gambling here. I am picking a lot of the favorites at home, and I think the Colts can make this a blowout. Look for a 35-7 final score.

Prada's Pick: MIAMI (-6.5) over Buffalo

J.P. Losman on the road...J.P. Losman on the road...J.P. Losman on the road.

Ron's Pick: Miami

I had Buffalo typed it, but then I realized JP Losman will have a terrible game on the road. Miami defense gets a TD and the 'phins win 23-9.

Prada's Pick: MINNESOTA (+2.0) over Carolina

Here's what makes no sense to me. Carolina looked crappy in Week 1 and their team MVP is banged up (and now not playing), and despite this, they're favored by two points on the road against a team who looked fantastic in Week 1? How does this make sense? Pre-season is over, Vegas oddsmakers.

Ron's Pick: Minnesota

Simply, Steve Smith is out, so Carolina is not very good offensively. Look for Minnesota to run like they did last week and come out with another 17-14 victory.

Prada's Pick: PHILADELPHIA (-3) over NY Giants

Simply put, last week demonstrated that the NFC East will once again go through the city of brotherly love. With Donte Stallworth getting affiliated with the Eagles offense so quickly, I expect Donovan McNabb to have a field day passing the ball against that suspect Giants secondary.

Ron's Pick: Philadelphia

Philadelphia really impressed me last week, but they are missing Leto Sheppard. In the end I think McNabb and Westbrook make the difference as the Eagles win an exciting 28-24 game.

Prada's Pick: SAN FRANCISCO (+3) over St. Louis

The very same thing happened last year in Week 1, as the 49ers shocked the Rams. I see it happening again because I don't think St. Louis is as good as they showed in Week 1. 49ers win it on a late field goal and pick off Bulger near the end zone to seal it.

Ron's Pick: St. Louis

Expect the 49ers in another shootout, but again they will be on the losing end. Look for the final score to be 31-24.

Prada's Pick: SEATTLE (-7) over Arizona

Seattle never loses to Arizona, and I don't see things changing now. All those fantasy owners who lamented Shaun Alexander's poor Week 1 will be much happier after he has his customary huge game vs. the Cardinals.

Ron's Pick: Arizona

Finally going against the spread, Arizona seems like an easy pick here. I think this will be a close game, with Alexander as Seattles only offense. Look for Warner and company to keep this a close game.

Prada's Pick: Kansas City (+10.5) over DENVER

I realize that Kansas City doesn't have their starting quarterback, but I saw absolutely nothing in Week 1 that would indicate this spread makes sense. Denver looked horrendous and the score really could have been a lot worse. I say Denver wins, but the game stays pretty close.

Ron's Pick: Kansas City

Ok, so Denver loses week 1 and then they become a double digit favorite. No way that should happen. Larry Johnson will step up this game with 150 yards and 2 TDs and Denver wins but only 21-17.

Prada's Pick: New England (-6) over NY JETS

Last week proved to be my greatest fear, as New England let Buffalo hang around until finally putting them away. That tradition has held true over the past for Buffalo, but anyone thinking it will happen with the Jets is crazy in my opinion. Each of the last three Jet-Patriot games have been double digit wins for New England. I see the trend continuing this week.

Ron's Pick: NY Jets

I am riding the Jets this week. This is a really silly pick on my part, but Pennington played well last week, and I think the Patriots are not very good. I will go with this as my CRAZY PICK OF THE WEEK.

Prada's Pick: SAN DIEGO (-11.5) over Tennessee

As a remedy for last season's impossible opening slate, the Chargers start this year with Oakland, Tennessee, and Cleveland. If they don't go 3-0, they don't deserve to play in the postseason.

Ron's Pick: San Diego

San Diego played very well last week, and they might get another shutout. Expect a 20 point win.

Prada's Pick: Washington (+5.5) over DALLAS

This is a bit of a homer pick, but I think this game stays really close. Dallas looked pretty bad against Jacksonville, so I don't see how the spread should be so big. In the end, a field goal will win the game for one of the sides.

Ron's Pick: Dallas

Washington is without Clilnton Portis, and Mark Brunell is playing terribly. Dallas wins this game and wins it big as Redskins fans begin to lose hope.

Prada's Pick: Pittsburgh (-1) over JACKSONVILLE

I see this game staying close until Pitt puts the Jags away. Knowing what happened in last year's Pitt-Jacksonville game, I expect Pitt to be fired up to beat this team. Hines Ward has a late TD and Pitt wins by 7.

Ron's Pick: Pittsburgh

Last week I almost picked against my team, but I finally did not. Pittsburgh should win this game regardless of who is starting at QB, Jacksonville is over-rated in my opinion.

Panic is spelled B-R-A-N-C-H

2006-09-14T09:41:00.000-07:00

Monday saw the end to one of the most annoying stories in sports in the last few weeks; the Deion Branch saga in New England. The disgruntled wide receiver, angered at the way New England was treating his rights, was finally traded to the Seattle Seahawks for a first round pick.

Wait, what's that? A first round pick? Really?

The most annoying part of the whole story for me, besides the whole "wide receiver whining in the offseason" premise, was that New Englad kept holding out hope that they would receive a first round pick for Branch. Keep in mind, we're talking about a receiver who has never had a 1,000 yard or 6 TD season, and who is mainly known for his 13 catch, 133 yard performance in the 2004 Super Bowl against the Eagles. How could New England possibly get a #1 draft pick for Branch when Green Bay was only able to get a second-round pick for Javon Walker, a similarly-aged receiver who has produced much better numbers over his career? Why not just hold on to Branch then?

Of course, I never considered that a team could think so desperately and stupidly as the Seattle Seahawks did. With Darrell Jackson and Nate Burleson already in place, the Seahawks took the bait and actually offered their first-round draft pick for Branch. Granted, the Seahawks could certainly have used some depth at receiver, but considering that they are still predominantly a run-first team, giving up a #1 pick for a receiver like Branch is a bit silly.

More importantly, Seattle can't expect to be able to pay all their players this much money for that much longer. Seattle already has a ton of money tied up in veterans like Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck, Burleson, Jackson, Walter Jones, Chike Okeafor, Grant Wistrom, Julian Peterson, and Kelly Herndon. Branch may be cheap now, but his price tag is about to get very high if Seattle believed he was worth a first-round pick. Currently, the Seahawks are one of two teams (Atlanta being the other) that have a team salary of over $100,000.

Seattle should have heeded the lesson of the Tennessee Titans, a team that put all their eggs in one basket and ended up with no Super Bowls and a horrendous cap situation. The Titans teams from 1999-2003 had a ton of talent and star power. Guys like Eddie George, Derrick Mason, Steve McNair, Jevon Kearse, Frank Wycheck, Samarii Rolle, and Blaine Bishop were supposed to be the keys behind a Super Bowl team, but the closest the Titans ever got was 1999, the first year of their extended run of success. Tennessee kept trying to hold on to as many players as possible to make their run, but they eventually fell completely out of title contention when George fell off in 2004. Two years later, the Titans are one of the laughingstocks of the NFL and are still struggling to escape salary cap hell.

Seattle is dangerously approaching Titans territory. Shaun Alexander is 31 and rapidly approaching the point where running backs fall off. The offensive line, the key to last year's Seahawk success, has already lost Steve Hutchinson and will eventually lose Jones. Adding Nate Burleson was supposed to fortify the receiving core, albeit at a very expensive price. Now that Branch is also in the fold, Seattle is essentially playing the Titans strategy. If Seattle doesn't win the Super Bowl this year, they can kiss their hopes of competing in the next 5 years goodbye unless Alexander can run until he's 35.

On the flip side, New England has demonstrated an incredible understanding of the salary cap. By moving Branch for the highest market value possible, the Patriots are giving themselves the cap flexibility to be competitive for the rest of Tom Brady's career. More importantly, a first-round pick for the Patriots is so essential based on their incredible drafting track record. This past year, the Patriots had a similar pick in the middle of the first round and used it to select Lawrence Maroney, who already has shown that he has star potential. By getting another first-round pick, the Patriots are putting themselves in the position to succeed once again in the draft. Tom Brady is the type of quarterback that spreads the ball around, so Branch is not nearly as necessary to the team as it seems.

Essentially, for a borederline #1 receiver, the Patriots got cap flexibility and an additional #1 draft pick. Like the Phoenix Suns of the NBA, the Patriots have mastered the art of dealing players when they reach their market peak and replacing them with undervalued players that fit perfectly into the system. When we talk about the Patriots, we can say all we want about how Bill Belicheck and Tom Brady are the keys to the team, but the real reason New England stays competitive is the front office. Moves like these are the reason New England will be at the top of the NFL for years to come.

Monday Morning Long Snapper: Week 1 Edition

2006-09-10T23:56:00.000-07:00

Week 1 is in the books in the NFL, and what a crazy and strange week it was. Every Sunday night for the next 16 weeks, Ron and Mike will take a look back at the biggest stories of the day. Each week, we'll sum up the day's action, sit down with a columnist and discuss the bigger stories, give you our fantasy studs, and look forward to the next week. As Austin Powers would say, "Awesome Baby!'

With all the generic football column names out there (come on, what is Tuesday Morning Quarterback), we thought we'd go in a different direction. We've decided to name this column "Monday Morning Long Snapper," after the Joe Zelenkas and Kevin Golds of the world.

Anyway, let's get it on! Hike it!

Monday Morning Long Snapper, Week 1 edition

Introduction

As with many things in this life, the more things change, the more they stay the same. This adage proved particularly true in Week 1 of the NFL season. From Baltimore's dominating defense to the strong performances from Donovan McNabb and Kurt Warner; from the typical New England "I'm Keith Hernandez" game to the obligatory Chicago Bears beatdown of another crappy offense (Green Bay), there was a distinct smell of familiarism in the air during Week 1. It was as if every stereotype was fulfilled, every first impression realized.

Yes, there were surprises. Who could have expected a battle between Mike Holmgren and Mike Martz-led offenses end in a 9-6 slugfest? Who would have thought Bill Parcells would have been outcoached by the immortal Jack Del Rio? Who would have expected Chad Pennington, of all people, to have the most passing yards of any quarterback on the day? But between all the surprised lay a distinct message. "To understand the future, one must remember the past."

The press report

Each week, Pradamaster and Jumbomaster sit down with a talking head as they ask us questions on Week 1. This week, we sat down with Jason Whitlock of the Kansas City Star and ESPN.COM's Page 2. Needless to say, neither he nor us could resist poking fun at his weight.

What up homies, this is Jason Whitlock, the most educated black man in the history of sports journalism. Stephen A. and Scoop ain’t got nothing on me!

Here are 5 questions I have for you Caucasian donkeys:

Baltimore 27, Tampa Bay 0. Yeah, another Whitlock Super Bowl pick is on their way to the top! Tell me guys, am I right, or am I even more right?

Jumbomaster
Baltimore looked very impressive in week 1. The defense is looking similar to the 2000 season with Ray Lewis controlling the field. In addition Jamal Lewis will average more than 4 yards a carry, and there will be a passing offense. McNair can scramble, and if Jamal Lewis gets tired, then Mike Anderson can play just as well. The AFC North is looking like it might be the toughest division in football, but the Ravens can make a run like the Steelers did last year in case they make a wild card. Watch out for this team, as Steve McNair wins the comeback player of the year award.

Pradamaster
Baltimore definitely may be one of those teams that I was very wrong about in the preseason. Early on, I didn’t see why Steve McNair was such an upgrade, but he managed the game effectively, which is more than we could say about Kyle Boller. That defense, who I thought were a bit over the hill, certainly dominated and proved me wrong today. However, let’s not forget to criticize where criticism is due. Tampa Bay’s offense clearly hasn’t woken up from their funk that killed them against the Redskins in the playoffs last year. When Cadillac Williams isn’t running effectively, Tampa Bay’s offense officially sucks. They have a ways to go before that offense can be effective once again.

Cincinnati 23, Kansas City 10. What is going on with my Chiefs? If you ask me, it was that block that Larry Johnson missed in the second quarter…

Jumbomaster
Remember back in 2004 the Steelers lost week 1 to the Ravens, and then won 15 straight games. Many teams are not prepared for week 1, and this might be the case for Kansas City. I feel like their defense played well holding the Bengals under 250 yards. They did have 3 turnovers which were very costly. The Chiefs need a receiver to step up to provide a 2nd dimension to the offense and then they will be successful. This is certainly not a bad football team, and look for improvements over the next couple of weeks.

Pradamaster
Whitlock, any loss that Kansas City has is LJ’s fault to you. The fact is, the man is your offense, and if Trent Green goes down, then even the great LJ can’t do anything. People don’t seem to realize that the Chiefs offense isn’t going to be the well-oiled machine that they were under Al Saunders right away. If I’m Herman Edwards, I’m putting this game as an anomaly and focusing on beating a vulnerable Denver team next week.

Tennessee loses to the Jets. Clearly, the Titans should have never cut such an incredible black quarterback like McNair for some white stiff named Collins. No way Tennessee ever wins a game this year, right?

Jumbomaster
The Titans should run a very conservative Steelers offense. Chris Brown and Travis Henry is a very good one-two bunch, and if they can get to 3rd and manageable Kerry Collins can find Drew Bennett, David Givens, and Ben Troupe. The problem is on defense, as you all know. What might be the worst secondary ever, gave up 320 passing yards to Chad Pennington. Tennessee did show heart and coming back from a 16-0 deficit to make the game exciting. I think the Titans will improve throughout this year and finish with a 5-11 record, sweeping the Texans.

Pradamaster
Wow, Tennessee looked pretty bad against the Jets, but don’t push the panic button just yet. This isn’t a team that’s looking to contend right away. Just take your lumps, focus on building talent, especially on defense, and try to be frisky. Certainly, however, you have to be incredibly concerned about the Jets pass defense if Chad Pennington is tearing you up for 300 plus yards. Just wait until choke artist Manning rolls into town.

Jacksonville 24, Dallas 17. It’s all Donovan’s fault, isn’t it? T.O. has nothing to do with the loss at all. Keep telling me I’m right.

Jumbomaster
Drew Bledsoe had 3 interceptions, and Julius Jones ran the ball only 17 times. This will explain why Dallas lost. Dallas needs to use the run to set up the pass, and that was very effective towards the beginning of the game. Something happened to Bledsoe (the announcer said he looked hurt) and he stopped playing effectively. Before this happened his passes were sharp and his arm looked good. He has a ton of weapons on that offense. I am still on this bandwagon as the team to beat, but Parcells has to get the defense playing well. Anything more than 17 points against the pathetic Jacksonville offense is not acceptable.

Pradamaster
No, Jason, you’re completely wrong. T.O. was fine today, ripping off a couple big plays and a TD. The problem was Bill Parcells. Julius Jones was running all over the Jaguars in the first half, and then Parcells goes to an air-it-out attack in the second half? How does that make sense? I have to wonder whether the game has passed Parcells by the last couple years. Last year, the Cowboys should have been a playoff team, but kept blowing late leads. This year, already we’ve seen Parcells lose a game his team should have won. This isn’t going to end well, mark my words.

Finally, I leave you homies with this. I’ve tried jumping on tons of bandwagons after Week 1, only to find that I’m too fat to fit in any of the seats. If you were as skinny as I was, who’s bandwagons would you guys be jumping on? I’d let you on Baltimore’s, but I’ve taken up all the seats.

Jumbomaster
I think the 2 bandwagons most people are joining after today would be Baltimore and Philadelphia. I am going to be very bold here, I am hopping on not just 1 team, but a division. Last year Michael hopped on the NFC South after week 1. I am hopping on the NFC West. The West is commonly called the worst Division in football, but now they are 3-1 after Week 1. San Francisco's offense was very productive, as was Arizona's offense. St. Louis's defense played very well against Denver. I will not comment at this time about Arizona or San Francisco's defense I would just like to say that back in 1999 St. Louis was a favorite to win the Superbowl with the 30th ranked defense. Arizona has the new best show on turf and San Francisco is improving. At least 2 teams are making the playoffs from this division.

Pradamaster
Before I pick a team, let’s get this straight. Nothing would make me sicker than jumping on Bill Simmons’ sleeper pick, the St. Louis Rams. Plenty of idiotic internet newbies are going to jump all over the Rams because Simmons said so, despite the fact that they won one of those goofy games (6 field goals for Jeff Wilkins?) and the fact that Denver also started last year with a bona fide stinkfest (34-10 loss to Miami). Phily and Baltimore are too easy, so I’ll leave you with this team: The Cincinnati Bengals. In the preseason, I was considerably down on this team because I didn’t think they’d have the grit and toughness to win grind-it-out football games against top competition. Winning 23-10 on the road against a top team like Kansas City with the passing game doing so little? Granted, Kansas City was in its first game with a new coach, and Trent Green got hurt, but still, that’s really impressive to me. Basically, this is the type of game Cincy never had to win last year with that schedule. If they can win like this, you could be looking at your 2006 AFC champs. I know I’m doing a complete 180 on this team, but let’s be honest; we’re jumping on bandwagons here, not staying the course like George W. Bush.

Pradamaster's and Jumbomaster's Fantasy Studs:

1. Donovan McNabb: 314 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
2. Kurt Warner: 301 passing yards, 3 TDs
3. Chad Pennington: 319 passing yards, 2 TDs
4. Charlie Batch: 209 passing yards, 3 TDs
5. Jeff Wilkins: 6-7 on field goals, 3-3 from 20-29 yards, 1-1 from 30-39 yards, 1-1 from 40-49 yards, 1-2 from 50+ yards
6. Baltimore Defense: 0 points allowed, 3 INTs, 1 TD, 2 sacks
7. Chicago Defense: 0 points 2 INTs, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks

Crystal Ball

A quick look back at Week 1 and a look ahead to Week 2.

Prada: Alright Ron, so another season of the NFL began this week, and another fall of sitting on the coach procrastonating on overdue work has also begun. Tell me, what are the 5 most underrated things about football season beginning for a fan like yourself?
Jumbo: 1. Laughing at terrible announcing, mostly by John Madden and Brian Baldinger.
Prada: Seconded.
Jumbo: 2. Talking on instant messanger and rapidly checking nfl.com for fantasy scores while watching the games.
Prada: And to add to that, the fact that Yahoo has StatTracker available this week only, so we can check our computers and keep refreshing to waste even more time.
Jumbo: Agreed.
Jumbo: 3. Calling our fantasy buddies to trash talk, or comment about "some insane hit that sean taylor made," or "THE REFS CALLED THAT!"
Prada: Don't forget the obligatory "I'm a genius for starting Kurt Warner over Daunte Culpepper when it really was an easy decision" phone call.
Jumbo: 4. Coming up with insane nicknames for players with football buddies, like the recently discovered Amani "It is not a" Toomer. Makes the games much more enjoyable to watch.
Prada: or Reggie "My father is not a" Bush
Prada: okay maybe that one was pretty dumb
Jumbo: Reggie "I took a Deuce in my" Bush, of course referring to McAllister as well as defecating in a vagina.
Prada: Much better
Jumbo: Finally, 5. The 3 F's
Jumbo: Friends, Food, Football.
Jumbo:Honestly there is nothing better than spending Sunday with your buddies, chilling with way too much soda and pizza and watching some football.
Prada: Well said my friend, well said.

Prada: Anyway, let's look ahead to Week 2. A couple key matchups I see right away. One is Kansas City at Denver. Somehow, one of these teams is going to be 0-2. Who do you think it's going to be?
Jumbo: I think Kansas city will lose. Being on the road in Denver is virtually impossible. I am not sure if Trent Green will play, and the verdict is still out on whether Larry Johnson can be productive with Herman Edwards as his coach.
Prada: As much as I agree, Denver looked really bad against St. Louis. Those 18 points could easily have been 42, and even if Kansas City struggled on offense, they held a powerful Cincy passing attack down all game.
Prada: I'd probably take Denver too, but KC isn't as bad as they looked this week
Jumbo: Remember Cincinnati was without TJ.
Prada: This is true. And you've listen to me gush about "who's your daddy" ever since I drafted him in our fantasy league.

Prada: Anyway, let's look at the other side of the spectrum. The only current matchup of unbeatens features an early NFC West showdown between the Cardinals and the Seahawks. Is this the year the buzzaw (as Will Leitch says) finally breaks through against Seattle?
Jumbo: I think the word to describe Seattle's win today would be "unimpressive."
Prada: "Ugly" works too.
Jumbo: This should be a close game, but I feel Seattle's defense will slow down the high flying Cardinals just enough to win. Do you agree?
Prada: Honestly, I see Seattle rolling all over the Cardinals. If you give up 393 yards to the Niners and the Alex Smith Express, I don't see how you can even come close to stopping the Shaun Alexander train.

Prada: Finally, it's a bloodbath in the NFC East, as Phily plays the Giants and the Cowboys play the Skins. Who emerges from those games?
Jumbo: I am going to pick both home teams (Philadelphia and Dallas). I feel Dallas played very well at the beginning of todays game, but then got out played by Jacksonville. Philadelphia was very impressive today, and are the early front runners in the NFC.
Prada: I was not impressed with Dallas today. I don't think Jacksonville is that good a team, and Bledsoe looked pretty bad passing the ball, so I'm taking the Skins and the Eagels
Prada: The Giants didn't look bad tonight, but Phily looks awesome again. Stallworth was a huge steal.
Jumbo: Reggie Brown is also an emerging star.
Jumbo: Also, there were at least 5 times Brian Westbrook was compared to Marshall Faulk during the game.
Prada: Boy that makes me want to puke

Prada: Anyway, with 2 games on slate tomorrow, I pose this question to you:
Prada: Which happens first? Joe Theismann, fed up with Kornheiser making him look bad, comes down from the Monday Night booth and takes Mark Brunell's place as the Skins starting QB? Or Aaron Brooks goes an entire game without throwing an INT?
Jumbo: Clearly the first. Theismann is a terrible announcer and is just announcing in a pathetic attempt to recover from that hit LT put on him. In addition, Mark Brunell sucks.
Prada: Yes, but how can Theismann contradict himself in the huddle? He'll say "We're running left; it's our bread and butter" in one huddle, then gush about how "running right is definetly our strength"in the next.
Prada: Therefore, I'm taking Brooks. He's bound to have one of those Jake Plummer-like seasons at some point

Jumbo: I have a question....
Jumbo: You are in the Boston area and hear a lot about the Pats. Is this the "end of the Patriots reign" over the NFL?
Prada: I mean, are you serious?! Look around at the people in this locker room, and ask that question again!
Jumbo: You're not Tedy Bruschi
Prada: Come on, we won on a safety today! We're amazing! Buffalo ain't got nothing on us!
Jumbo: What if Buffalo got the 1st down, and scored. The scoreboard would be 24-7, and the Pats would be 0-1.
Prada: Nah man, the Pats would still have won. They can win anything. Don't question the master Belicheck!

Prada: Anyway, until tomorrow night, happy football day! You're place is secured on the bandwagon with Jason Whitlock
Jumbo: Peace.

Pradamaster's and Jumbomaster's Week 1 Picks

2006-09-07T09:17:00.000-07:00

These picks are against the spread, of course. I remind everyone what's at stake here between Ron and I. I do not gamble on these games unless it's good-natured banter between Ron and I. Although there is no money on the line, there is something at stake. Even if there isn't money involved (buying dinner doesn't count), neither of us wants to admit that the other is a fantasy god.

Without further ado. Home teams are in caps.

Miami (PK) over PITTSBURGH
It may not be known as the "Charlie Batch corrolary" (Simmons readers know what I'm talking about), but Pittsburgh is a much different team without Ben Rothlesberger at the helm. Considering that, and Miami's fast start to end last season, I like the Dolphins in this game. Daunte Culpepper and Chris Chambers will expose a so-so Steelers secondary in the victory.

Ron's Pick: Pittsburgh over Miami
Last year Miami got off to a slow start, and I see the Pittsburgh defense taking over. Last year Charlie Batch was effective as a starter, so look for Pittsburgh to win this one.

Denver (-3.5) over ST LOUIS
St. Louis' biggest weakness is their suspect secondary, and with the acquisition of Javon Walker, the Broncos, predominantly a run-first team, now have the ammunition to win through the air. Look for the Broncos to jump ahead early and use their tandem of Bells to close it out.

Ron's Pick: St. Louis over Denver
Home field advantage is HUGE in football, and I don't think the turf will suit the Broncos. Look for a week 1 upset here.

TENNESSEE (-2.5) over New York Jets
The Jets are woeful in every single facet of the game of football. I'm not about to take them on the road in Week 1, even if they are playing a similarly pathetic team like Tennessee.

Ron's Pick: Tennessee over NY Jets
Both of these teams stink, so I will ride the home team.

CAROLINA (-5) over Atlanta
Michael Vick has been extremely successful against the Panthers in his career, but last year signaled a change of the guard, as Carolina demolished Atlanta twice. The dominance continues today. Atlanta will struggle to stop Carolina's pass rush and Vick will struggle mightly to do anything with the ball.

Ron's Pick: Atlanta over Carolina
I think Carolina will win the game, but only by a field goal. Also, Steve Smith is hurt so their offense will not be very effective.

KANSAS CITY (-1) over Cincinnati
I'm down on Cincinnati not because of their offense, which should score a ton of points, but because of their defense. Losing Odell Thurmond for the first 4 games will affect the Bengals significantly. I expect them to get off to a slow start and struggle to pull themselves back into the playoff picture, much like San Diego last year. The slow start begins this week, as Larry Johnson will run all over the Cincinnati defense in a Chiefs victory.

Ron's Pick: KC read pradas comments

DETROIT (+7) over Seattle
The first shocker of the weekend goes here, as I expect Detroit to win outright, not just cover. Seattle is going to struggle running the ball without Hutchinson, and Detroit should be able to generate enough offense to win. Not to worry Seattle, last year's team also lost in Week 1 to a similarly structured Jaguars team.

Ron's Pick: Seattle over Detroit

I was very tempted to pick Detroit, but I think Seattle will not have a Super Bowl hangover. While I originally thought the spread was too big, I will go with Seattle and the high flyin' hawks in a double digit win.

Philadelphia (-6) over HOUSTON
Without any running game, Houston has no chance on offense. Phily will blitz and blitz all day, and the inexperienced Houston offensive line, coupled with the immobile David Carr, will be unable to respond.

Ron's Pick: Philly see pradas comments

Tampa Bay (-3) over BALTIMORE
A bit of a toss-up game, but that Baltimore defense isn't what it used to be and that Tampa Bay defense is getting much better. At home, I take the Bucs.

Ron's Pick: Baltimore over TB

I never thought TB was very good, and Baltimore is a trendy pick, so I will go with them at home.

New Orleans (+3) over CLEVELAND
The biggest problem with New Orleans is their defense, but considering the Browns have trouble taking advantage, the Saints should be okay. Reggie Bush will have a fantastic debut and the Saints will win a close one.

Ron's PIck: Cleveland over NO

Another snoozefest, that I will pick the hometeam.

New England (-10) over BUFFALO
I know this game is going to screw me, because New England tends to let underdogs cover, but I see no reason why Buffalo should even be competitive. Don't be surprised if you see a renewed vigor in the regular season from the Patriots, even without Deion Branch and David Givens around.

Ron's Pick: Buffalo over New England

I think Buffalo will put up about 17 points in this game enough to keep the game in single digits.

GREEN BAY (+4.5) over Chicago
The second shocker of the afternoon comes here, as the Green Bay Packers win on 4 field goals and some poor Bears offense. Final score should be 12-7, in my opinion. Green Bay will run the ball effectively enough to prevent Favre from going into all-out INT mode, and the Packers will win (SHOCK) a ball-control game.

Ron's Pick: Bears over Packers

I will just ride the Bears bandwagon this week, as their defense scores a TD.

San Francisco (+7.5) over ARIZONA
I'm taking the 49ers with the points, as I think Arizona won't be able to score so easily against an underrated Niners defense. On the other side, Alex Smith will be reasonably effective against a still-poor Cardinals defense. In the end, however, I expect Arizona to win by a field goal.

Ron's Pick: Arizona over SF

I think SF is the worst team in the league. Arizona is improving, and at home. Arizona will put up 35 points and easily win this game.

Dallas (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE
The T.O. honeymoon may already be over, but I still expect Dallas to pass all over a so-so Jaguars secondary. Jacksonville's offense, especially Byron Leftwich, will struggle with the Cowboys' speed and fumble away chances to score.

Ron's Pick: Dallas over Jacksonville

This game can go either way, but I think Julius Jones will have a great game receiving the ball out of the backfield to exploint the over rated Jaguars defense.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Those that believe the Giants defense is one of the best units in football will be sadly mistaken when Peyton Manning passes all over the secondary and the Colts offense scores 40 points. Chalk one up to the older brother in what should be the first of many Manning derbies.

Ron's Pick: Indy over NY Giants

The spread on this game should be about 8, the Giants are nowhere near as good as the Colts in any aspect of football. Look for a huge Indy win.

WASHINGTON (-4) over Minnesota
Probably the toughest game on board, because I have no idea whether Clinton Portis will play and I think both teams' offenses are unsettled. In the end, because Washington is at home and has a better overall defense than Minnesota, I like the Skins to win by a touchdown.

Ron's Pick: Minnesota over Washington

CP is not playing, and 4 points seems like a big spread for this game. I think Washington will win 13-10 or maybe 9-7 in a defensive battle.

San Diego (-3) over OAKLAND
I know this is a home game for Oakland, but that line is pretty ridiculous. Lost in the shuffle of the Drew Brees/Phillip Rivers debate was that the Chargers defense was emerging as a very strong unit at the end of last season. They'll make life miserable for Aaron Brooks, and the Chargers will have just enough LDT to run over the Raiders.

Ron's Pick: SD over Oakland

Oakland is just about the most over rated franchise. They are not very good, and SD almost made the playoffs. Look for a 10 point Chargers victory.

Ron's picks are coming later. Until then, welcome back NFL!

Your Handy Dandy NFL Predictions

2006-09-06T22:54:00.000-07:00

So remember back when we had a podcast? A podcast where we were supposed to predict the NFL season? Yeah, we kind of ran out of bandwidth on Ron's computer and couldn't record any more. The plan then was to post an AIM conversation like our draft recap, but then I went to college and found I didn't have 16 hours of free time like I did at home. So in lieu of all of that, here is a quick predictions post with my picks for week 1.

As a sideout, every week, Ron and I are going to post our picks against the spread. At the end of the season, whoever has a better record against the spread has to treat the other to dinner and must spend a week posting about why their fantasy football legacy is insignificant compared to the winner. Anyway, the picks for both of us will be up tomorrow.

Anyway, my predictions, with a quick comment on each team and a prediction of their record. I know, the games are a bit off, but I'm too lazy to go through the schedule and figure out who wins each game. Without further ado...

NFC East

1. Washington: Upgraded the offense but did nothing to address a shaky quarterback situation. However, a strong division record should once again push the Skins back into the playoffs: Projected Record: 10-6
2. Dallas: In terms of talent, this team has it all, but the feud between Bill Parcells and Terrell Owens should distract the team and make them play below their potential. Projected Record: 9-7
3. Philadelphia: A lot of people are overlooking this team, but they should be a legitimate force within the division and a borderline playoff contender. Donte Stallworth solidifies the receiving core, previously the biggest weakness on the team. To take the next step, Andy Reid will need to utalize Brian Westbrook more, and I'm skeptical about that. Projected Record: 9-7
4. New York Giants: The team remains the same, and could be much better, but the schedule is brutal and you have to wonder about Eli Manning after last season's finish. Projected Record: 7-9.

NFC North

1. Detroit: Ron and I both think this will be the surprise team that comes out of nowhere this season. An easy schedule and Mike Martz will both help the team, but the biggest factor will be Rod Martinelli. His no-nonsense, defensive first approach is perfect for this team and will finally help them reach their full potential. Projected Record: 11-5
2. Minnesota: They have moved in a different direction, but the lack of proven offensive talent will lead to an inconsistent season and a so-so finish. Projected Record: 8-8
3. Chicago: The schedule isn't brutal, but the offense will be more exposed this season with a slightly harder schedule. The defense didn't improve enough and won't dominate games like they did last year. Projected Record: 6-10
4. Green Bay: They're getting better, but they lack too many playmakers on both sides of the ball to make Brett Favre's last season memorable. Projected Record: 5-11

NFC South

1. Carolina: If the only problem most people can find with your team is that there is too much hype, you know you're doing something right. Only a freak season-ending injury to Steve Smith (not a nagging hamstring) should hold them back. Projected Record: 12-4
2. Atlanta: The defense is better, but unless Michael Vick can take another step forward, this will be the same borderline inconsistent playoff team. Projected Record: 9-7.
3. Tampa Bay: They will struggle a bit with a first-place schedule, but important foundations will be laid. Projected Record: 7-9
4. New Orleans: Another team on the rise, but there are too many holes on the defense for the Saints to become a major factor this season. Projected Record: 5-11.

NFC West
1. Seattle: They have two major curses working against them (Alexander, Super Bowl runner-ups), but they have all the talent in the world to make up for it, even without Hutchinson. Projected Record: 13-3
2. St. Louis: They're making lots of strides with a new coach and new personnel, but are probably a year away. Projected Record: 8-8.
3. Arizona: Another trendy sleeper pick, but they'll find out that they should have re-tooled the offensive line than overpay for Edgerrin James. Projected Record: 7-9.
4. San Francisco: I guess they're on the rise, but unless Alex Smith has a superhuman year, this team should struggle to win 5 games. Projected Record: 4-12

AFC East

1. New England: The loss of Deion Branch stings, but the additions of Rodney Harrison and Corey Dillon from injuries will help even more. Projected Record: 11-5
2. Miami: A team definetly on the rise, but lack the secondary to become a major Super Bowl contender. Projected Record: 10-6.
3. Buffalo: Saved from the cellar by the much more woeful Jets. Projected Record: 4-12.
4. New York Jets: Jet fans may end up receiving a repeat of the 1-15 debacle in 1995. Projected Record: 2-14.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh: The Steelers should not miss Jerome Bettis or Antwan Randle El much, considering both were overrated in the first place. As long as Rothelesberger is healthy, the Steelers have to be the favorites again. Projected Record: 13-3.
2. Baltimore: Steve McNair will lead them to respectability, but an aging defense and offensive line will eventually undo them. Projected Record: 7-9
3. Cincinnati: Even with a healthy Carson Palmer, the Bengals will discover that it's much easier to win when you're playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Without that luxury, they drop off. Projected Record: 7-9.
4. Cleveland: With LeCharles Bentley, this was a legitimate sleeper team. Without him, their offense will do nothing. Projected Record: 4-12

AFC South

1. Indianapolis: They won't miss James much and their defense will be just as good, if not better, than last season. Projected Record: 12-4.
2. Jacksonville: Without that creampuff schedule and Jimmy Smith, the Jaguars will sink back out of the playoff picture. Projected Record: 6-10.
3. Tennessee: Improving, but you can't do much if Kerry Collins is your starting quarterback. Projected Record: 5-11.
4. Houston: I was all set to put them second in the division until Domanick Davis got hurt. Without him, this team is woeful. Projected Record: 4-12.

AFC West
1. San Diego: Even with Phillip Rivers, the Chargers have enough weapons on offense to be fine. The defense was awesome at the end last year and should be better. Projected Record: 10-6
2. Denver: A similar season to last year, but with one or two less wins and one large quarterback controversy. Projected Record: 10-6.
3. Kansas City: The offense will miss Al Saunders dearly, but improvements from the defense will keep this team in contention. Projected Record: 9-7.
4. Oakland: Jeff George. Jeff George. Jeff George. Thank god he was cut. Projected Record: 6-10.

In the end, I like Indianapolis to beat Washington to win the Super Bowl. Yes, this year will be Peyton's year.

Picks tomorrow!

Adieu, Andre!

2006-09-04T23:04:00.000-07:00

When Andre Agassi first made his mark on the tennis circut in 1988, it was as a rebellious, long-haired teenage phenom. On Sunday, as he finally departed Arthur Ashe Stadium after more than 20 years of playing high-quality tennis, it was with a shaved head, light stubble, and an entirely different attitude.

Shedding off tears of sorrow in the aftermath of his final match, Agassi ended his career Sunday with a 4 set loss to German qualifier Benjamin Becker in the third round of the 2006 US Open. With his defeat, the golden age of American tennis, featuring Agassi, Pete Sampras, Jim Courier, and Michael Chang, officially gave way to a new era. Nobody had seen the highs and lows of American tennis more than Agassi, and with his departure, American tennis must go back to the drawing board.

While Agassi's final match does not quite compare to the final miracle runs fellow American stars Pete Sampras or Jimmy Conners made, Agassi did not go out without one last touch of glory. Few people gave Agassi much of a chance against rising Cyprian star Marcos Baghdatis when the two crossed paths in the second round. Baghdatis already made the finals of the Australian Open and the semifinals at Wimbledon this season, and was fast becoming one of the tour's top players. Agassi, meanwhile, had labored through a first-round match against Romanian Andrei Pavel, rallying to win in 4 difficult sets. I remember lamenting the impending beatdown Agassi was going to receive even before it happened.

Then, a funny thing happened. Agassi won the first two sets easily, and had a big lead in the fourth. Despite losing a 4-0 lead and the fourth set, Agassi was still pushing the young Greek to the edge. Baghdatis proceeded to break Agassi in the first game of the 5th set, and a victory for the youngster seemed imminent. But like he has so many times in his career, Agassi took the punch, pulled himself off the ropes, and used his return game to break back. The two held serve until 5-6, and a tiebreak seemed imminent. But Agassi would not let it happen. He pressured Baghdatis' serve, taking an early lead in the game and holding off Baghdatis' last hope to win the match. In one moment, with the roar of the crowd in the background, Andre Agassi was on top of the tennis world again.

In a way, that one last victory was a metaphor for Agassi's career. He seemed ticketed for stardom early on, winning Wimbledon, the US Open, and the Australian Open by 1995. Just like against Baghdatis, Agassi seemed to be cruising in his career. 1997, however, was rock bottom for Agassi. His ranking plummeted to 141th in the world, and he was forced to play in several challenger circut events. At this point, it appeared Agassi's career would never be the same, but he re-dediacted himself, got back to 6th in the world by the end of 1998, and then dominated the circut in 1999, completing the career grand slam at the French Open and winning the US Open in a 5 set thriller over Todd Martin. In 2003, Agassi became the oldest player to ever achieve the number 1 ranking, but saw his stock plummet by the 2005 US Open. However, he refused to quit, and took everyone on a remarkable run, improbably reaching the final before losing to Roger Federer. Just like his victory over Baghdatis, Agassi's career wasn't conventional, but he emerged from it all as a winner and a great of the game.

However, to say Agassi's career has come full circle is an understatement. More accurately, Agassi's career has mirrored a planet's orbit around the sun. Once a planet completes it's orbit, it simply starts the process over again. Agassi's career came full circle, started over, and came full circle again. After taking the tennis world by storm and winning Wimbledon in 1992, Agassi suffered a serious wrist injury, knocking him out of the Top 20. Few game him a chance at the 1994 US Open, but Agassi shocked everyone once again by rolling through the field, becoming the first unseeded winner in US Open history. Once again, Agassi was on top of the tennis world. He won the Australian Open in 1995 and won Olympic Gold in 1996. However, Agassi experienced a free-fall, and became irrelevant to the tennis world. However, he rededicated himself, pushed back up to the top of the tennis game, and improbably completed the career grand slam at the French Open in 1999. For a few years, Agassi was back on top of the tennis world, but fell back off due to a serious back injury in 2005. The 2005 US Open was Agassi's last gasp, but boy was it a great run. The victory over Baghdatis this year was his final breath. Essentially, Agassi's career went full circle at least 5 times.

As a tennis player, I have always admired the way Agassi played. He played an unconventional and unique style that few people can properly emulate. I find that out every time I step on the tennis court. I try to mirror Agassi's baseline style, but I always end up tiring myself out instead of my opponent. Tennis is meant to be a game of who can make the other run more, and Agassi was a master at dictating points while building up his opponent's fatigue. Agassi, in my opinion, played the game the way it should have been played.

When anyone asks me whether Agassi's career grand slam is more impressive than Sampras' record 14 major titles, the answer is obvious. Dominating on one surface is a wonderful accomplishment, but to reach the pinnacle of every single surface over the course of a career is simply astonishing. 14 players have won at least 4 grand slams in their careers, but only three have won all of them. In the modern era, Agassi is the only one. To me, that is a much bigger accomplishment than total majors. A true tennis great should be able to win on every surface, and Agassi has proven himself to be the best player in the world everywhere; whether it's on clay, hard, or grass.

However, the one major thing I took away from Agassi's career was a sense of balance and respect for his entire career. For an athlete, ending one's historic career with a dignified exit is much more easier said than done. I need not remind everyone of the laughable endings of distinguished stars such as Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Emmitt Smith, Jerry Rice, Nolan Ryan, Mark McGwire, Cal Ripken, and Brett Favre. Although Agassi had some embarrasing losses at the end of his career, he ended his career as spry and upbeat as he began it. Had you replaced Agassi's bald head with a long mane of hair, nobody could have told the difference between the 1990 Agassi and the 2006 version. To be able to play that style and still look young and alert speaks to Agassi's true greatness.

Adieu, Andre! Tennis fans like myself will miss you dearly.

When you're too lazy to write, just link!

2006-09-03T00:38:00.000-07:00

I apologize for being pretty flakey recently, but moving in and settling into college for the second time has thrown off my routine. Expect more frequent posts in the next couple weeks.

For now, however, it's a weekend of links.

The Ultimate Bloggers Fantasy Football League drafted today, as many of you know. You can read all the league activity on the blog here. Basically, I somehow ended up with Tiki Barber and Clinton Portis with the 10th and 15th picks. Insane, I know.

We Are the Postmen on Andre Aggasi. This is actually the subject of my next post, but I'm waiting for Aggasi to lose to put it up.

Rising Suns had this to say to Gilbert Arenas. Personally, that's just Gilbert being Gilbert. He needs shots to be successful, and there were none available for Team USA. Gilbert's Arena is just looking forward to Gilbert playing with yet another chip on his shoulder.

Speaking of the Wizards, my younger brother started a new Wizards blog called Bullets Forever. Be sure to check it out.

Awful Annoucing spent the week looking back on the best, or worse, of Skip Bayless. As you all probably know, Skip is leaving Page 2 for good. This sounds good...until you consider that he's still on TV.

It's been a disappointing season for the Red Sox, and Over the Monster has some proposed changes he would make

Dallas Cowboys, Super Bowl Champions. Carolina Panthers, not so much. Speaking of the Cowboys, apparently Mike Vanderjagt is still the same old Mike Vanderjagt

A much different take on Don Nelson coming back to Golden State. Speaking of Don Nelson, Golden State of Mind was at the press conference and have some interesting pictures to boot. Also, The City likes the Nelson move, but certainly has temepered his optimism.

The first-ever NFL blog network has been launched at AOL Sports.

While everyone else is watching for other key milestones, the guys at Sportszilla are tracking Abraham Nunez in his quest to finish the year as a regular with a sub-500 OPS.

J.E. Skeets over at The Basketball Jones live-blogged the Greece-US semifinal. He always seems to live-blog the important games.

Kissing Suzy Kolbert sat down with new NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and found him to be an interesting subject.

That's all for now. Back when Aggasi loses.

Whoa, Nellie!

2006-08-30T23:11:00.000-07:00

The Golden State Warriors have always been a team that fascinated me greatly. Despite countless seasons of mediocrity, the Warriors plug along while their neighbors to the south, the Los Angeles Clippers, soak up all the headlines of futility. In addition, despite their inherent irrelevance, the Warriors seem to have a ton of fan support. Every time I see Warriors highlights or games on television, Oakland Arena is full, alive, and rocking. Within the blogosphere, two of the most popular NBA sites out there are Warrior blogs Golden State of Mind and The City. As a person who rooted for the Seattle Seahawks growing up because nobody else did, I was inherently interested in the dynamic behind the overwhelming fan support for a seemingly irrelevant franchise.

But now, I have a real reason to be interested in the Warriors. On Tuesday, Golden State decided to fire current head coach Mike Montgomery and replace him with former coach Don Nelson. Hey, if 8 coaches haven't won anything in 11 years, why not hire the guy that was the last to win anything for your team?

This makes me ecstatic because this hire ensures that the Golden State Warriors will be damn exciting to watch. Mike Montgomery, like so many Warrior coaches before him, simply was a terrible fit. A college coach that tended to rely on traditional big-man dominated basketball, Montgomery never stood a chance coaching Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, and the rest of the Warriors. He tried to create a structure that guys like Davis and Richardson were never going to embrace. At the end of the year, Davis was pulling up for too many threes and the offense wasn't working at all.

Enter Nelson. Suddenly, you have a coach who's style plays to your team's strengths. Davis has the ability to be a playmaker rather than a gunner. Now, you have Davis running the break. On the wings, you have two fantastic athletes in Jason Richardson and Monta Ellis. In an up-tempo game, you wouldn't want to see those two guys filling the lanes for monster dunks. Up front, there is plenty of athleticism with Ike Diogu, Troy Murphy, Andres Bierdins, Adonal Foyle, Patrick O'Bryant, and Pietrius. Certainly, we're not looking at a murderers row of players, but they're all the types of athletes that will benefit from an up-tempo game. Diogu in particular should flourish in this system. He's an athletic big who has the potential to be an animal on the glass.

So picture this lineup. Davis, playing the role of Tim Hardaway, at the point. Richardson, playing the role of Mitch Richmond, on the wing. An improved Dunleavy or an improved Ellis at the three, doing their best Chris Mullen invitation. Diogu and Murphy cleaning up the glass. It may not be "Run TMC" yet, but there's certainly the potential.

I'm not going to go as far as Marc Stein and suggest this team is playoff-quality, but at the very least, Golden State will be infinently more fun to watch this season, and after so many years of mediocrity and irrelevance, it's finally time those overzealous Warrior fans get what they deserve.

Fantasy Preview: Minnesota Vikings

2006-08-27T13:44:00.000-07:00

The 2005 season was a long, strange journey for the Minnesota Vikings. It began with much optimism. After faltering down the stretch in 2004, many pegged the Vikings as a darkhorse Super Bowl team. Having rid themselves of franchise receiver Randy Moss, who had become too big of a distraction, the Vikings entered 2005 thinking they had assembled a more balanced football team. Early on in the season, it became clear that the Vikings missed Moss much more than expected. Fresh off his monster 2004 season, Daunte Culpepper completely flopped, throwing twice as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns (6). Then, there was the love boat scandal, forever embarrasing the franchise. After that, the Vikings turned to Brad Johnson, and suddenly started winning. Everything that had previously gone wrong went right. The Vikings rode their suddenly stoud defense and an improved running game. But after winning 6 games in a row, the magic ran out, and the Vikings lost two of their final 3 to fall out of the playoff picture.

In terms of fantasy production, the Vikings went from being a projected juggernaut to a fantasy wasteland by season's end. Tons of owners, including Bill Simmons, took Culpepper very early last year and got burned. By the end of the year, the Vikings were only good for the annual Marcus Robinson fluke breakout week. There are some new characters on board this year, but the offensive philosophy remains the same.

Last year's fantasy rankings, curtesy Yahoo! (positional, overall)

RB: Mewelde Moore (28, 116)
QB: Brad Johnson (23, 120)
WR: Marcus Robinson (40, 138)
WR: Travis Taylor (44, 164)
TE: Jermaine Wiggins (18, 178)
DEF: Minnesota Defense (13, 190)
WR: Troy Williamson (77, 1320)

Newcomers:
K: Ryan Longwell (23, 168)
RB: Chester Taylor (46, 256)

Departures:
RB: Michael Bennett (38, 169)
WR: Koren Robinson (71, 242)
WR: Nate Burleson (87, 1381)
QB: Daunte Culpepper (36, 1395)

Rookies:
QB: Tarvaris Jackson

Essentially, we're dealing with a lot of people who did not produce much last year. Minnesota is the first team we've done without a single Top 100 player. However, despite the lack of past production, the Vikings offer many intriguing possibilities because they are full of "matchup guys." Most people won't win fantasy titles with Chester Taylor or Troy Williamson starting on a regular basis, but they should be kept around because you can put them in for a regular starter in a week where they have a favorable matchup.

Despite the lack of standouts, the Minnesota offense could be significantly better because of a re-tooled offensive line. Signing Steve Hutchinson away from the Seattle Seahawks was one of the most important moves of the offseason. For years, Hutchinson opened up holes for Shaun Alexander in Seattle. Many believed that Hutchinson, and not Alexander, was the key cog in Seattle's rushing attack. His presence means you should expect Minnesota to have a much stronger running game.

The other key move Minnesota made in the offseason was to sign Chester "The Molester" Taylor to be their starting running back. Taylor was never a starter in Baltimore behind Jamal Lewis, but was very impressive in limited action last year. The last time a promising backup Ravens running back signed with a new team, he became one of the best running backs in football. If he gets 20 carries a game, Taylor could easily become a huge fantasy star like Priest Holmes was in Kansas City. The only thing that could hold Taylor back is if new coach Brad Childress decides to go to a running-back-by committee, but considering how poorly that worked in 2005, I think it's unlikely. As long as he stays healthy, Chester Taylor is a legitimate sleeper running back.

The only other potential impact player is the defense. Minnesota's 13th ranking last year is deceiving. They were one of the worst defenses in the first 7 games, but morphed into a top unit in the final 9 games. It's a defense full of up and comers and big names, so I think we're going to see a very strong unit. Keep your eye on them late in the draft.

Other than that, Minnesota players are best suited for good matchups. Picking a #1 receiver out of Travis Taylor, Troy Williamson, and Marcus Robinson will prove to be impossible. You'll really have to hope that one of them catches a lot of touchdowns, because Minnesota tends to spread the ball around. Of the three, I'd say Williamson is the most likely to break out, but more likely, they'll just be matchup guys.

Stock Report

BUY

Chester Taylor: If he's the featured back behind that offensive line, he should have a very good season. Remember, the last Baltimore backup to escape to another team ended up becoming one of the best running backs in NFL history.

Troy Williamson: I don't think we're going to see him becoming a major threat, but we could easily see a Lee Evans-type year from Williamson. Expect him to produce more in the second half of the season than the first half.

HOLD

Jermaine Wiggins: With all the uncertainty with the receiving corps, Wiggins should duplicate his 69 catch season. He only had one touchdown last year, but I think that's more of a fluke than a long-term trend. Expect him to be a decent second tight end.

Minnesota Defense: The hold is based on the last 9 games of the year. If you wait until late on a defense, Minnesota is definetly worth taking.

SELL

Mewelde Moore: He should be a third-down back anyway. I'm baffled as to how he's gotten so many carries the past couple years. With Taylor around, I don't see it happening again.

Koren Robinson: It's easy to sell someone who just got released.

With that in mind, where would I pick them in a TD-heavy, 10 team league?

Chester Taylor: 4th
Minnesota Defense: 13th
Jermaine Wiggins: 14th
Troy Williamson: 14th
Travis Taylor: 14th
Marcus Robinson: 15th, so I can leave him in the starting lineup all season and wait for him to have his random huge game. [I'm kidding, don't draft him at all]

Your Bloggers Fantasy Football League Update

We are now almost ready to get the bloggers league started! We have 11 owners signed up from blogs all over the net, from Los Angeles to DC, North Dakota to Dallas, and even Alberta to Toronto. We do have one spot remaining, so if you have a sports blog and want to compete against some of the finest blogs on the net, e-mail me at pradam@brandeis.edu so I can send you an invitation.

Fantasy Preview: Green Bay Packers

2006-08-23T21:08:00.000-07:00

For years, the Green Bay Packers teetered on the brink of mediocrity. With aging quarterback Brett Favre at the helm, the Packers somehow kept limping into the playoffs, only to get knocked out in embarrasing fashion. It all came crashing down last season, as the Packers lost 7 of their first 8 games and finished with a 4-12 record. The running game that had previously saved Favre from complete embarrasment fell apart, as Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport went down early with season-ending injuries. Without the running game to shield him, Favre was exposed, throwing for a league-high 29 interceptions. Combine that with an atrocious defense, and it's no wonder why Green Bay ended up in the basement of the NFC North.

In terms of fantasy, the Packers looked a lot better than they really were. Many fantasy owners stuck with Favre through mid-season, but jumped the ship soon thereafter. Donald Driver had arguably the best season of his career, but only scored 5 touchdowns all season. Samkon Gado was a really nice story for a couple weeks, but simply didn't do enough to merit a fantasy starting spot for the rest of the season. Ryan Longwell had his worst season ever, and Bubba Franks and David Martin were ineffective as a tight end tandem.

But this year is a new year, so let's fantasy preview these guys.

Last year's fantasy rankings, curtesy Yahoo! (positional, overall)

QB: Brett Favre (19, 49)
WR: Donald Driver (17, 64)
RB: Samkon Gado (27, 102)
TE: David Martin (20, 187)
TE: Donald Lee (24, 212)
WR: Robert Ferguson (65, 214)
TE: Bubba Franks (35, 253)
DEF: Green Bay (31, 1362)
RB: Ahman Green (75, 1464)
RB: Najeh Davenport (78)

Newcomers:
WR: Rod Gardene

Departures:
WR: Antonio Chapman (39, 141)
K: Ryan Longwell (23, 168)

Rookies:
WR: Greg Jennings
WR: Cory Rodgers
QB: Ingle Martin
K: Dave Rayner

Basically, we're not looking at a whole lot here. However, keep in mind that Green Bay was particularly unlucky with injuries last year. Losing both Green and Davenport really messed up their offensive flow. Despite the presence of Favre, Green Bay had become a run-first team over the past few years, making the losses of their first and second-string running backs all the more unbearable. With both back healthy, along with Gado, the Packers offense should be a lot better this season.

I don't think anyone on this team is really going to break out, but if I had to pick one person most likely to emerge, I'd probably take Donald Driver. Like last season, the Green Bay passing game starts and ends with Driver. Unlike last season, the running game should be better, which will lead to longer drives and more overall touchdowns. If everything is running smoothly, don't be surprised to see Driver post Steve Smith-like numbers. I don't think he's going to be quite as prolific as Smith, but we could easily see a repeat of his 1200 yard season with 10 touchdowns, making him a worthwhile second receiver.

As for Favre, he can't really be any worse than last year, but I don't see him suddenly re-emerging as a fantasy star. The best case scenerio for Favre is that he has a Jake Dellhome-type year (20-25 TDs along with 18-20 INTs). If the running game is going well, Favre should be able to throw for fewer interceptions and more touchdowns. However, if the running game falls apart again, look for more of the same from Favre. I don't think he's worth a draft pick unless you have a 12-team league.

The running game should be improved, but I think we're going to see more of an RB by committee. Green, Gado, and Davenport should combine to form a pretty solid trio, but I don't expect any of the three to emerge as a 20-carry back. Gado is probably the most likely to emerge, but he hardly impressed after a couple good games early on. The darkhorse to emerge is probably Davenport, but I don't like that he's coming off a severe injury. Either way, it's probably best to stay away from Green Bay backs until very late in the draft.

Stock Report

BUY

Green Bay defense: They really can't be any worse, but they added a couple playmakers and face a pretty easy schedule. Keep them in mind if you need a defense for a bye week.

Donald Driver: He's pretty much the only guy there for Favre, so expect him to match the yardage he had last year with a few more TDs.

HOLD

Samkon Gado: He's my bet to get the most carries, but I don't think it will translate into much better production.

Brett Favre: If you're in a league that doesn't penalize for interceptions, Favre is a pretty good option. He'll get the yardage and the TDs. Be wary if your league has a severe INT penalty.

SELL

Ahman Green: I've drafted him early in each of the last two years, only to see him fall completely off the face of the earth. He's healthy again, but I don't see Green becoming the back he used to be.

Bubba Franks: He used to be Favre's favorite end-zone target, but with David Martin and Donald Lee stealing his playing time, don't expect much of anything from Franks this season.

With that in mind, where would I pick them in a TD-heavy, 10 team league.

Donald Driver: 4th
Samkon Gado: 12th
Brett Favre: 14th

Fantasy Preview: Houston Texans

2006-08-21T13:42:00.000-07:00

I finally got around to doing this. I have a very positive view on some FF stars in Houston. Some good players that you may forgot exist, but you can take very high on draft day. Your friends might think you are reaching, but these guys can play, and should put up big numbers

The case for David Carr

The Good

-Carr has another year under his belt, and his numbers did improve a bit with 14 TDs and 11 INTs.
-New coach Gary Kubiak will protect Carr so he will not be on the ground all game
-The return of Andre Johnson
-Newcomers Eric Moulds and Jeb Putzier

The Bad

-Carrs lifetime QB rating is a 73.8
-Carr had 6 fumbles last year, but recovered all of them
-Completed 60% of his passes

The Ugly

-2500 passing yards last season
-Insanely impossible schedule: Philly, Indy, Washington, Miami, Dallas, Jacksonville in the first 6 weeks.
-Carr has never thrown for more than 16 TDs in a season

PREDICTION:If everything comes together for Carr he could actually put up Carson Palmer numbers (stop laughing). He was sacked 68 times which is 19 more than Drew Bledsoe (note: bledsoe was sacked 10 more times than any other QB besides Carr). With a healthy D. Davis in the backfield, we should see Carr turn his NFL career around. I will say 3,200 yards coupled with 24 TDs. As for drafting, I would say pick him in the last round, or don't take him, because he has no value currently. If he does well Week 1, pick him up.

Dom. Davis

The biggest news in the NFL offseason was Mario Williams being picked above Reggie Bush. Bush is arguably the best player to go pro since Bo Jackson/ Barry Sanders. Why you might ask....Dom Davis is by far the most under rated player in fantasy football. Last year he played 11 games and put up 1300 total yards and 6 TDs which over a 16 game season is 1900 total yards and 9 TDs. There will be less pressure on him this year, and he should top the 2000 yard 10 TD plateau, and I think he is one of the most reliable backs in fantasy football.

When to draft him: In most drafts he is gone by the end of the 2nd round, IMO he is a late first round pick. He is an every down back that gets the ball on passing 3rd down situations and on the goal line. People might laugh if you pick him above LaMont but the fact that in 5 less games he had only 500 less yards and 5 TDs less makes him very attractive. You can even make a case for him in the Mid First round, because Davis is quite attractive because of his minimal downside. He was hurt last year, that is all the downside he has. Tiki Barber is old, and guys like Cadillac and Ronnie Brown could be considered to "risky." Davis is a fairly safe pick IMO.

Andre Johnson

Last year was Andre Johnsons 3rd year in the NFL and his supposed "breakout" year. He however was hurt and had a very low production level. Expect for him to have a great year, with at least 1,100 yards and 9 TDs. He could very well be this years Steve Smith, where he breaks out after getting hurt. He has traditionally been picked between the 4th and 6th round. This is a guy you can reach on, where you pick him above Roy Williams and Torry Holt simply because of the potential that Johnson has.

What defense

What i wrote about them was deleted....but in short they were ranked 31st in yards and 32nd in points. No reason to pick them, Mario Williams will not make them an attractive defense. STAY AWAY!

What happened to you, Bill Simmons?

2006-08-19T20:01:00.000-07:00

I know that it's football season, and both Ron and I are very far behind in our fantasy previews. But I really couldn't let this horrible piece of journalism slide. This may have been the worst article I have ever read.

I have long been awaiting an explanation to Bill Simmons' flameout early in the main event of the World Series of Poker. I was eager for an explanation not because I was awaiting an interesting column, but instead because I was eager to see how whiny and bitchy Simmons would be on a subject matter I figured he knew little about. Needless to say, this column was terrible beyond my wildest dreams.

Before I tear this thing apart Fire Joe Morgan style, I should probably mention that I'm not the type of person who identifies himself against the mainstream media outlets. So many bloggers that I read seem to take pride in ripping ESPN and national columnists apart. Frankly, that's not my whole outlook on the blog/mainstream media debate. However, since I started this blog, I have completely soured on Simmons' writing ability. Before I entered the blogosphere, I viewed Simmons as royalty. Soon, however, I started to realize that Simmons' was merely another talking head. It all started with the Theo Epstein saga. Upon reading a claim that the Red Sox had a "Orwellian media conglomerate in which they control all the information in the city's most important newspaper, as well as the TV and radio stations that carry the games," I wondered if it could be true. I went to my journalism professor, showed her the column (which, coincidentaly, she had actually read herself), and wondered aloud whether Simmons was just another talking head, a la Jay Marrioti or Bill Plashke. After speaking to my professor and writing a beat journal (where we analyze the journalistic quality of what reporters/columnists of a certain beat are writing), I came to the realization that he was simply another talking head.

Even after this realization, I continued to read Simmons, simply because I knew that there was so much writing talent there. Gradually, however, the quality of his columns went downhill. There are a variety of theories and explanations. Some say that his columns haven't been as good since he interned for Jimmy Kimmel. Others say that the corporate nature of ESPN has bothered Simmons. Still others say that he lost his bite as soon as the Red Sox won the World Series. Regardless, Simmons has morphed into the Brett Favre (the current version) of the sportswriting world. Like Favre, he can still win your mind with the occasional fantastic column, but most of the time, his writing is so mediocre that you wonder why ESPN hasn't replaced him with someone that can do his job more effectively. Had you told me that a site like Awful Announcing could be as popular as it is because of it's critiques of Simmons' columns a year ago, I would have been shocked. Now, I wonder why there aren't more sites like that out there.

I've saved all my frustrations for Simmons' writing to others. But after this column on the World Series of Poker, a topic right up my alley, I could not restrain myself any more.

Better to Be Lucky Than Good

I believed Mike McD for eight years. "People insist on calling it luck," he kept saying sarcastically. Sure. We all knew better.

MP: Actually, it was just you.

If poker was about luck, as Mike says, the same guys wouldn't be sitting at the final table of the World Series every year, right? Poker was about skill and intuition. Poker was about reading opponents like a police detective, outplaying and outwitting them, always remaining ahead. Poker was about shifting gears, changing betting patterns, appearing meek one minute and pouncing like a panther the next. Poker was about an accumulated series of gambling experiences, good and bad, that mold you into a real player. You didn't lose because you were unlucky; you lost because you were outplayed. Big difference. That was poker.

MP: Cue the inspirational music!

Actually, there are so many things that are wrong about this. I loved Rounders. It was a fantastic movie. Matt Damon and Ed Norton were fantastic as Mike McDermott and Worm. But even I understood that poker does not work like it does in Rounders. Rounders makes it seem that the only elements that matter in poker are the ones that you can control. Unfortunately, that just isn't the case. All these things that Simmons mentiones in this last paragraph are important. All are elements that good poker players have. But poker is not a game that you have complete control over. Luck plays a huge role. To win a poker tournament, you have to be a very good player, but you also have to get very lucky.

In the movie, the one scene that exemplifies the elements Simmons describes is the scene where Mike is watching the 1988 World Series. You know, the scene where Johnny Chan traps Erik Seidel to win his second straight main event? Simmons probably believes that this is the ultimate skillful moment of the movie. However, what Simmons fails to realize is this. CHAN'S PLAY DOESN'T WORK UNLESS HE GETS LUCKY TO FLOP THE STRAIGHT!! The odds of flopping a straight with 2 connecting hole cards is 78:1. The odds of doing it at the same time your opponent ALSO flops a big hand? Even more rare. Chan won all Seidel's chips that hand BOTH because he flopped the straight and played the hand so well. Both had to happen for Chan to win that hand.

Poker is not about skill. Poker is not about luck. Poker is about the combination of skill and luck. The best players are the ones that manage luck the best. The best players put themselves in as few situations as possible where being unlucky cripples them. That's why they are the best.

We're barely two paragraphs in and I can't stop talking. Let's continue.

Or so I thought.

You know what poker is really about? Luck.

MP: We've already gone over why this is statement is wrong. But beyond that, this statement is terrible. I've only taken one semester of journalism, but even I know that relying on generalizations in an article is a cardinal sin. It shows that you haven't done your research. Of course, Simmons would be nowhere if he didn't have his generalizations that sounds good and snazzy.

I found this out the hard way in Vegas, on the heels of my abrupt departure from the Main Event at the WSOP. I played a hand perfectly and somehow lost a $20,000 pot. That was it.

MP: Obviously, Simmons, you're the ONLY person to ever suffer a bad beat in poker. Why don't you cry and whine about how the world is out to get you? I mean, Greg Raymer had a chance to become the chip leader with 25 people left in the main even last year, got all his money in with pocket kings against Aaron Kanter's Queen high, and lost to a runner-runner flush. He played a hand perfectly and somehow lost a $3 million pot. Then again, he's not Bill Simmons, the great ESPN Sportswriter. He obviously did something wrong...

I was done in two hours. Over the next 10 days, almost 9,000 other players were knocked out -- some for the right reasons, some for the wrong ones. At the final table, no famous pros were left sitting. A former Hollywood agent won the whole thing. Twelve million bucks. Nobody was even surprised.

MP: Okay, it's going to very hard to consolidate everything that's wrong with this paragraph. But I'm going to try.

Almost 9,000 other players were knocked out -- some for the right reasons, some for the wrong ones.

MP: What does this even mean? Some for the right reasons, some for the wrong ones? How long will it take for Simmons to understand that poker isn't like baseball? People get knocked out if their hand is not as good as their opponents hand after all 7 cards are on the table. Just because someone got knocked out because they were unlucky doesn't mean they got knocked out for the wrong reason. I'm assuming that most other players, unlike Simmons, realized that luck plays a role in every hand, and that they can lose and be unlucky. These other players also realize that, somewhere along the way, they missed an opportunity to profit and build their chip stack somewhere along the way; and that misstep put them in the position that eventually knocked them out. But Simmons doesn't understand that. To him, if he got unlucky on one hand, it automatically means he got screwed. But poker doesn't work like that. Even with luck, you always make mistakes that end up costing you.

At the final table, no famous pros were left sitting.

MP: I mean, the fourth place finisher, Allen Cunningham, isn't really much of a pro. I mean, he's only won 4 World Series Bracelets, the 2005 Toyota Player of the Year, and 4 and a half million dollars in tournament poker PRIOR to his fourth place finish. He only was the youngest-ever bracelet winner when he won his first World Series of Poker bracelet in 2001 (the record has since been broken). He only has nearly 100 cashes and exactly 12 big tournament victories before the age of 30. Fellow famous pros Daniel Negreanu, Phil Ivey, and John Juanda say he's only better than all of them, even though they're arguably three of the 10 best poker players in the world. In a previous post, we only rated him as the second-best poker player in the world.

Yeah, Cunningham isn't really a famous pro.

A former Hollywood agent won the whole thing. Twelve million bucks. Nobody was even surprised.

MP: I mean, this former Hollywood agent (SPOILER ALERT), Jamie Gold, did win 12 million dollars. That was true. And it is true that nobody was really surprised in the end. Nobody was really surprised because he was the overwhelming chip leader since Day 4, has a fairly solid poker resume, with 14 prior cashes in limited tournament play, and had Johnny Chan the master as his poker coach. He clearly was a deserving champion.

Also, did Simmons actually ask anyone if they were surprised? If not, how can he make that statement? Simple answer: he can't. But he still did anyway.

See, everyone thinks they know how to play now.

MP: Including Bill Simmons...

Before Mike McD broke onto the scene, Hold'em was an underground game, the forbidden door most gamblers were afraid to open. But repeated cable showings of "Rounders" inspired a new breed of casual players like myself to give the game a try. ESPN popularized the pocket cam and made the game easier to understand. The Internet boom allowed shut-ins to hone their skill, cresting when no-name qualifier Chris Moneymaker won 2003's Main Event. Websites and satellites even made it possible to qualify for the World Series without fronting the 10 grand. Poker shows popped up like pimples. Stars were made of pros like Phil Hellmuth and Phil Ivey, and celebrity junkies like Tobey Maguire and Ben Affleck gave the game a little extra juice. Just like that, poker was a billion-dollar industry, the one "sport" that gave everyone a chance.

MP: A bit simplistic, but for the most part, he's actually right. Probably the one thing he did well.

Like NASCAR, wrestling and porn, poker has become its own subuniverse. This summer's Gaming Life Expo featured rows and rows of booths: for countless websites (even Anna Benson has one), start-up magazines and self-published books, for an autograph from your favorite player, for poker-related apparel and merchandise (if you've always wanted a polyester shirt with face cards sewn on the front, this is the place to find it). Skanky models were everywhere handing out free stuff, prompting my buddy Hopper to crack, "What time are they due back at Cheetahs?" The place makes a Star Wars convention look hip. At one point, my friends and I were staring in shock at a booth that featured giant oil paintings of various pros. What amazed us wasn't that these paintings existed, or that they cost $300 apiece, but that someone was purchasing one of Johnny Chan. Like at the porn expo, you see things at the poker expo you can never unsee.

MP: All of these things are there because people like BILL SIMMONS contribute to the craze. Simmons writes as if this is a terrible tragedy, yet he fails to realize that he himself is wrapped up in it. Nobody but himself made the decision to go and play in the World Series of Poker. He did so as a pipe dream; as a soul without any handle on reality. Now he comes back, fresh off a bad experience, and suddenly, he's talking about how this is such a tragedy?

This is why there hasn't been a "Rounders" sequel. Mike McD wouldn't be an underdog anymore. He'd be a minicorporation, a hero to Internet poker nerds, with a $300 portrait of himself, a fleet of agents and PR people, a couple of sponsors, a gigantic ego, a best-selling book and a popular website, maybe even a minimansion outside of Vegas with a driveway that looks like a giant poker chip. He'd be worth 10 million. Easy.

MP: I'm sorry to break it to Simmons, but the last thing we ever needed was a Rounders sequel. Even if the poker boom never occured, a sequel would never have worked because of the simple fact that, with a few exceptions, sequels tend to be huge letdowns that are significantly worse than the originals.

Also, this characterization would have happened even if there was no poker boom. Maybe there wouldn't be a best-selling book or a popular website, but if we start the story where we left off, Mike McD would be a big star. Let's assume we start the second movie in Las Vegas, after he's made a big splash. As a young gun of poker, he'd still be sought-after. Young poker stars got instant fame in the poker world even before the big poker boom. It's only now that poker has become mainstream that people like Simmons notice.

The other option is to start the movie once Mike McD gets to Vegas. If that was the case, he'd be an underdog story even with the current circumstances. The movie could be about how he becomes so famous and his journey when he deals with fame. That could still be extremely compelling.

You know what else? He'd be bummed out. This year's Main Event featured so many players, they had to split Day 1 over four days. Thanks to the waves of qualifiers who didn't have to front 10 grand, a different style of play emerged: overaggressive, cocksure, reckless. Winning the tournament isn't a realistic dream, but wiping out a famous pro and having a memorable war story for your buddies … now that's realistic. Pros were getting bounced left and right. Everyone was gunning for them, all-in calls be damned. I mean, how can this be an accurate representation of skill? If you enter a major chess tournament, no matter how much you'd practiced, you'd get wiped out. Same for the Golden Gloves, a PGA tournament, PBA, you name it. But everyone has a chance in the WSOP. On the bright side, anyone can win. On the flip side, you can say the same about keno.

MP: All stuff that you should have seen coming, you idiot. Instead, you chose to believe the poker utopia that is Rounders. That's your fault, Simmons.

Also, although it doesn't fit here, let me dispel a popular notion. The recent winners of the main event can all play. With the exception of Chris Moneymaker, who never devoted enough time to poker, all of the winners and many members of the final table have had sustained success. So many people predicted Greg Raymer would crash and burn, but he has cashed 9 times since winning the main event. One of those 9 cashes came the very next year, in the 2005 main event. 2004 second and third place finishers David Williams and Josh Arieh used their 2004 run to kickstart their poker careers. Two years later, they are two of the best young players in the game. 2005 main event winner Joseph Hachem has been even more successful than Raymer. In just one year, Hachem already has 8 additional cashes. He could have very easily won the Rio circut event if his pocket kings weren't cracked by Kido Pham's Jack 10 offsuit. He also went deep this year in the main event, losing when his pocket aces were cracked by Ace Queen. I would assume Jamie Gold will have similar success after his 2006 win.

I will say this: The World Series brought the best poker out of me. You feel the tension from the beginning, as you greet everyone at the table, as the dealer shuffles the cards, as you stare at $10,000 worth of chips and realize they're yours. Every time a yellow $1,000 chip moves, you can almost hear the blood swishing in everyone's veins. It's palpable. It's incredible.

MP: Cue the inspirational music again!

Even two weeks later, I remember every nuance -- what everyone was wearing, all their faces, how my chips were stacked, everything. I chugged along for two hours, winning one big hand and battling a steady stream of lousy cards. Meanwhile, a wild Internet qualifier was calling everybody, trash-talking, even showing his bluffs after he won. He reminded me of a football QB who keeps throwing deep; eventually, you switch to zone and start to pick off his passes. Basically, he was Jeff George.

MP: How do you BATTLE a steady stream of lousy cards? You don't line up your patented 3-4 defense to stop the cards, do you?

And I wanted to pick him off. Holding K-10 suited, I called his $550 bet along with two others.

MP: Okay, hold on a second. Simmons, you didn't play the hand perfectly. In fact, it was YOU who ended up getting lucky. If you want to pick off a loose player that is playing every pot, you don't do it with a hand as marginal as king 10 suited. King 10 is probably the most overrated hand in poker. Pre-flop, you're more likely to be dominated than you are to be even money. The best you can really hope for is that your opponent is playing either a small pair or something like Ace-rag. Once the flop comes, you're really in trouble. If the flop comes King high, you may think your hand is good, but so many hands have you beat. Your opponent could easily have Ace-King, King-Queen, and even King-Jack. All of those hands beat you. If the flop is something like King rag rag, your opponent could even have King-rag if he's in late position. That hand could even beat you. If the flop comes 10 high, you also seem to be sitting pretty, but if your opponent has pocket jacks, queens, kings, or aces, or even Ace-10, you're beat. You pretty much have to hope to either flop 2 pair or a flush/flush draw. And with 3 others also in the pot, even that's not much of a guarantee. King 10 is a really bad hand heads-up, but it's an even worse hand 4 handed.

Also, there's no mention of what position everyone was in. From the looks of it, the loose player was raising in very early position. He may be loose, but he's not so dumb to raise with a bad hand in early position. Even if he's a loose cannon, the worst hand that Simmons can really put him on at this point is something like Ace-Jack or a small pair. Both hands that have King-10 beat.

The flop? K-10-6.

MP: Hey guess what! Simmons, you got lucky! But don't mention this, because you clearly played the hand perfectly.

First guy called.

MP: Huh? Who's bet?

Jeff came barreling in for another $1,200. Third guy folded. And I knew four things: First, I had the best hand (nobody had trips, I could tell from the body language).

MP: How, pray tell, could you tell from their body language? I need more details here.

Second, I needed to steal that $3,400 in the middle. Third, having played one big hand in two hours, everyone would know I meant business with an all-in wager.

MP: If you have two pair, and you've made the read that you have the best hand, why are you trying to "steal" that $3,400 in the middle? While you're trying to steal that money, the best players are figuring out how to make the most money. And if you're playing off a tight reputation, why go all-in there? If you know you have the best hand, and you know you have a dominating hand, and you've played only one pot in two hours, it certainly seems suspicious if you move all-in there. Clearly, you have the goods.

And fourth, with 20 grand in chips, Jeff George might be dumb enough to call me. Which he was. And you know what this nitwit had? A-K.

MP: Wow! What a terrible play! He had Simmons dominated before the flop and got unlucky! I mean, who would ever play Ace-King? Idiot!

But on a more serious note, here's the problem with Simmons' play. The only hands that he's ever going to get called with on a play like that are Ace King or trips. Essentially, the only hand he'll ever get called with that he has beat is Ace-King. He got lucky that Ace-King is exactly what his opponent hand. If you simply make a regular raise (to, say, 5,000) instead of moving all-in, you get a better idea of where you are in the hand. If he calls, for example, you can then move in on the turn and he'll likely fold his hand. If Simmons does this instead, he wins the pot, builds his stack to around 30,000, and becomes a player. Instead, he put himself in the position where he could potentially get unlucky.

That's what separates the pros from the wannabees. The pros understand that the odds show that you cannot keep avoiding bad luck in showdowns, so they do their best to avoid those types of situations. The wannabees figure that luck is constant, so they keep trying to get to showdown with the best hand, figuring it will always hold up. The problem is that it doesn't. Luck is not constant. That's why you see so many players come home with bad beat stories.

With the odds now significantly in my favor (84.3 percent), I was two favorable cards from taking control of the table. Even in that brief instant -- couldn't have been more than eight to 10 seconds -- I was dreaming about lasting the day, building a nest egg, getting lucky a few more times, maybe even making it through the week …Then, BOOM! It was over. The dealer turned over consecutive queens, improbably giving us both K-Q pairs, but with an ace kicker against me.

MP: Waaa! Bad Beat! Waaaaaaa!

The rest was a hazy blur: watching Jeff celebrate in disbelief … muttering, "Wait, did I just lose?" … hearing the jerk next to me say, "You're done" … debating whether to punch the jerk, then deciding against it … eventually stumbling away like Bill Buckner at Shea. I wandered aimlessly through the Rio, legitimately in shock, replaying the hand again and again. I couldn't get over it. Within an hour, I was renting a car and fleeing Vegas like it was a crime scene. I had to get out of there.

MP: Awwww...poor Bill Simmons...

It's one thing to get outplayed. It's another to lose to a reckless idiot. But that's poker in the 21st century: You need to be lucky. Period. I know Mike McD disagrees, but only because he's trapped in a suddenly dated movie.

MP: I've said it already. That's not poker in the 21st century. That's poker in general. You've always needed to be both good and lucky to win a tournament. The only difference is now you have to be both really, really, really good AND really, really, really lucky. It's only a matter of degrees.

Make the sequel already.

MP: So Simmons can repeat this very same column all over again using the Bill Simmons article generator and continue to become the Brett Favre of sportswriting; the annoying talking head that is now the type of columnist he used to hate. Make the sequel so Simmons can keep sinking down deeper into the abyss, if that's even possible. At least that terrible column won't be much of a surprise.

Fantasy Preview: Detroit Lions

2006-08-14T20:19:00.000-07:00

It was the same old story for Detroit last year. Relatively high hopes to start the year. A motto that this would be the year that things would turn around. A decent 3-3 start that teased fans with impossible hopes. A 2-9 finish that saw the franchise quarterback fail again, each of the three first-round wide receivers disappointing, a first-round running back that didn't take the next step, a defense that was overworked, and a GM that seemed minutes away from being fired. In terms of fantasy production, Detroit was the last place any owner looked. Joey Harrington and Jeff Garcia were non-options, Roy Williams was injured, Kevin Jones ineffective, Mike Williams disappointing, Charles Rogers non-existant, Marcus Pollard worthless, and the defense inconsistent.

But last year doesn't matter for Detroit, because the Lions are a completely different fantasy team this year. Not only are the skill players that start this season almost completely different than the skill players that ended last season, but we're looking at a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator. More importantly, we're looking at a defensive genius as the new head coach and an offensive genius as the new offensive coordinator. As long as Detroit's skill players can stay healthy, we should see across the board fantasy improvements from every single Detroit Lion.

Last year's fantasy rankings, curtesy Yahoo! (positional, overall)

WR: Roy Williams (23, 82)
RB: Kevin Jones (31, 127)
TE: Marcus Pollard (15, 146)
DEF: Detroit DEF (14, 191)
K: Jason Hanson (26, 209)
RB: Artose Pinner (44, 216)
RB: Shawn Bryson (59, 1375)
WR: Mike Williams (96, 1397)
WR: Scottie Vines (91, 1399)

Arrivals:
QB: Josh McCown (31, 217)
WR: Corey Bradford (45, 153)
QB: Jon Kitna (played less than 1 regular-season game)

Departures:
QB: Joey Harrington (25, 161)
QB: Jeff Garcia (43, 1587)

Rookies:
RB: Brian Calhoun

While it's clear that there was plenty of personnel turnover in the offseason, the two biggest moves were the hiring of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator and Rod Martinelli as head coach. Martz may be more well-known for his coaching gaffes, but the man is a fantastic offensive mind that has continually got the most out of his skill players. In St. Louis, Kurt Warner went from Arena Football starter to NFL MVP. Marshall Faulk went from one of the best running backs in the NFL to one of the best of all time, even if he was not used as often as he probably should have been. Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt became top fantasy receivers in their primes, and even guys like Kevin Curtis, Az-Zahir Hakim, Ricky Proehl, and Shaun McDonald became borderline fantasy options, if not better.

In St. Louis, Martz worked with players that were not really household names. With the exception of Faulk and Holt, the Rams stars were overlooked players. Warner went unwanted by many teams, and none of the receivers were big-time stars until after they started working with Martz. Only Faulk and Holt were first-round picks.

If Martz' presence can do wonders for unknowns such as Curtis, Hakim, and McDonald, imagine what it will do for guys like Roy Williams, Mike Williams, and Rogers. All three are guys that should benefit from Martz's vertical passing attack. Their talent is unquestioned. Roy Williams, when healthy, has been a gamebreaker. He had a 3 TD game last year, made numerous one-handed catches, and finished in the top 25 among fantasy receivers despite missing 3 full games and parts of others. Mike Williams has shown flashes as well, and Rogers still has the ability to produce if his head is screwed on straight.

More than anything, Roy Williams will benefit from Mike Martz. As long as he can stay healthy, he should be one of the top fantasy receivers in football. It wouldn't shock me to see Roy Williams put up Steve Smith-like numbers next year.

In addition, considering Martz's track record with unheralded quarterbacks Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, I would expect Jon Kitna to have a very good season. It was only 2 years ago that Kitna was a borderline MVP candidate in Cincinnati. He's a solid quarterback that will benefit from a pass-heavy offense. His numbers could very well be just as good as his numbers in 2004, the year he nearly led the Bengals back into the playoffs.

The only negative in the hiring of Martz is the running game should suffer. Kevin Jones had a poor season last year. Many were expecting him to break out and emerge as a top fantasy running back, but it simply didn't happen. He was plagued by injuries and averaged a paltry 3.6 yards per carry. With running backs, you usually can tell who will be a good player and who won't. It's put up or shut up time for Jones, and he's not in a very good situation. If Martz had trouble getting Marshall Faulk involved in the offense, it should spell many problems for Jones. It honestly wouldn't shock me to see third-round draft pick Brian Calhoun, a prototypical Martz back, steal Jones' job by the end of the year.

Finally, head coach Rod Martinelli will turn this defense into a stud unit. They have all the playmakers, but lacked the discipline and coaching. Martinelli is a defensive guru and will make this into one of the top units in the league.

However, despite all this optimism, be careful when drafting Lion fantasy options. None of these guys should be relied on as a sure thing. Do not reach for Roy Williams in the third round when he will probably be available in the 4th. Similarly, Jon Kitna should be available in the final few rounds of the draft, so don't spend a mid-round pick on him. Finally, most owners in your league will probably ignore the Detroit defense, so don't draft them unless it is the last round. The Lions offer many potential sleepers, but sleepers are only valuable if you get good value for them. If you can't, they become reaches, and the line between a sleeper and a reach is very, very thin.

Stock Report

BUY

Roy Williams: I can't overstate this. As long as Roy Williams can stay healthy, he will be dynamite this season. While staying healthy has proven to be a real ordeal for Williams throughout his career, the upside is limitless. He could win your team your league if selected in the right place.

Jon Kitna: Instead of taking a safer option like Steve McNair or Drew Brees as your backup quarterback, why not take Kitna? He looks like he's going to be the starter, and you can't argue with Martz's track record with quarterbacks. He's done it in the past and there's no reason to suggest he can't do it again. For a backup quarterback, that's great value.

HOLD

This category won't exist today, so instead, I'm just going to give you 2 other guys to buy.

Detroit Defense: Rod Martinelli has proven himself with Tampa Bay and will do wonders for this team. There are plenty of playmakers on the defense. Shaun Rogers is a beast inside, Dre' Bly is coming off a career year, and first-round pick Ernie Sims is a potential star. With the right coaching, this could be a top defense.

Jason Hanson: Better offense=more opportunities=more points=better fantasy kicker.

SELL

Kevin Jones: He didn't have so much value after last season, but don't expect him to turn it around. My bold prediction is that Brian Calhoun will be the starter at the end of the year, but even if he isn't, Martz tends to underuse his running backs.

Marcus Pollard: He didn't have much value last season, but Martz doesn't like to use his tight end, so throw him off your radar.

With that in mind, where would I pick them in a TD-heavy, 10 team league.

Roy Williams: Late 3rd/early 4th. You could probably get him later in most leagues, but there's always that one guy who will take him too early, so don't wait too long.
Kevin Jones: 9th.

[edit]: I've got a lot of criticism for Kevin Jones, and probably rightfully so. 9th round is extremely harsh for a guy with as much upside in Jones. Considering that, he will most likely go somewhere around the late 3rd/early 4th round. Personally, I would never take him that high, but there are reasonable people (including Ron) who believe this will be a breakout year for Kevin Jones. Keeping that in mind, if you believe in him, don't be afraid to take him so high. I won't personally do it, because I'd rather have a guy like DeAngelo Williams, Willie Parker, or Chester Taylor, but don't be afraid to reach for him if you believe in his potential.

Jon Kitna: 11th
Corey Bradford: 14th. I see him taking Williams' spot this year.
Detroit DEF: 15th. Again, they should outperform their spot, but you need to focus on getting good value.
Jason Hanson: 15th

Blog Updates:

First of all, we apologize for yet another delay on fantasy previews. We're working on getting all the podcasts recorded and it's taking some time. We hope you all enjoyed the first one, and we expect the next one to go up either tomorrow or Wednesday.

Second of all, we're hoping to have a 12 person fantasy league. Clipper fans Tim Moore and Ryan Hamlett from Squeeze Play Sports are aboard, giving us 9 players. 3 spots remain, so claim your spot before they all go. Also, we've created a blog for our fantasy league called The Ultimate Bloggers Fantasy Football League Blog, a closed forum where you can track all our trash talking/draft news/analysis/league activity.

Finally, blogger fantasy football league member Critical Fanatic's has a new blog at FanIQ.com. Check it out for a good read.

Tomorrow, in-between possible recording, Ron will discuss the Texans in his fantasy preview. What does he think of David Carr's gang? Find out tomorrow.

Your Handy Podcast Update

2006-08-10T21:47:00.001-07:00

ATTENTION iTUNES USERS!!!

Click here to download our podcast, and get an automatic update

The only problem is our host site puts 2 ad podcasts in, but you will just have to ignore them. Enjoy!

PODCAST IS HERE

CLICK HERE FOR PODCAST

In this episode, Mike and Ron discuss the NFC North. We tell you why the Chicago Bears will fall back down to earth after a fairytale season, why Aaron Rodgers will end the year as the Packers starting QB, and why the rest of the division is better than last year. We also project the records of each team and who is going to come out of the division and go into the playoffs. The answer may surprise you.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After a long day/night of recording, we've made some progress on the podcast. We've adjusted the plan to have 8 podcasts, as we went over on the first one trying to fit 2 divisions in. We've recorded the audio for 4 podcasts (NFC East, AFC East, NFC North, AFC North), but still have to work a bit on the sound. We're hoping that we can have one episode up by tomorrow, most likely the NFC North.

We also still have to figure out how to get the podcast from our computer onto the internet. If anyone has an idea about how to put a podcast onto an RSS feed, let us know. We should hopefully have at least one, if not all 4, episodes on an RSS feed by tomorrow.

Until then, send us any other questions and comments you have on the other 4 divisions, and stay tuned for exciting NFL Preview podcasts!

On an unrelated note, we're both pulling for this guy badly. [edit]: 4th is still pretty good.

It's Podcast Time, Baby!

2006-08-09T20:11:00.000-07:00

To all loyal Gatorade Dump readers and anyone else who stumbles onto this site:

Tomorrow is a big day for us because Ron and I are going to be recording 4, count 'em, 4 NFL Preview podcasts tomorrow! It's time we got off this fantasy bandwagon and started talking about the real thing. We're going to put them all up at different times in the next couple weeks, to keep you guys in suspense.

The plan is to have one show devoted to each geographical division. For example, in the first show, Ron and I will be talking about the NFC and AFC Easts. The second show will be the NFC and AFC Norths, the third the NFC and AFC Souths, and the final show will be the NFC and AFC Wests.

We're also going to take time to read any comment/question we get. If you have a question or if you really want to be on the air, send us an e-mail at pradam@brandeis.edu or steelers1016@gmail.com. You can also leave it on the blog, which, to most of you, is probably the easiest way to go. Even though these podcats are not geared towards fantasy football, we will answer any questions you have, be it of fantasy football or real football.

Finally, neither of us have really done a podcast before, so if the production is a bit rough, we apologize. Ron has the basic software, but we don't have all the cool things that The Basketball Jones or Killer Crossover have. Still, we more than make up for it with our voices, which are so low that they even make James Earl Jones proud. Well, that and our ridiculous (as the WBRS Sports Blog puts it) HSOs.

And as a final quick reminder, there are still 4 open spots in the Ultimate Bloggers Fantasy Football League, so claim your spot if you want to dominate some of the finest minds on the sports blogosphere. Send us an e-mail or comment in this entry if you are interested.

Fantasy Preview: Denver Broncos

2006-08-09T14:08:00.000-07:00

The Denver Broncos are coming of a great season where they were a game away from the Super Bowl. Like always the expectations are high, but there seems to be questions at quarterback like always. They brought in Jevon Walker, kicked out Mike Anderson and there is a lot of potential on this squad. Many sleepers and busts will come out of this team, and I will help you figure out where each player falls.

Jake Plummer - MOR award for Most Over Rated player

Lets face it, every year Jake Plummer receives infinite hype about this is "his year." This is NOT his year, Jake Plummer is not a good QB, he never will put up good numbers. Last year he had 20 total TDs with 9 total turnovers. He had 3400 passing yards to go with that. He is ranked in the top 15 by most rankings, making him a backup QB.

Jake Plummers career highs are 4,000 yards and 27 TDs and while those numbers are great, I see no reason why he will post such huge numbers. Sure they have Jevon Walker at receiver, but he is more of a big play receiver than an everydown guy. Walker posted insane numbers in 04' with 89 catches 1382 yards and 14 TDs-part of the reason I won the championship that year. He will not BOOST Plummers numbers, because I feel Plummer will make many mistakes at QB.

Stat line: Lets say Plummer has a great year, he could put up 30 TDs, if he increases by 12 with Jevon Walker being an insane wideout. 4,000 yards is not out of the question. Due to this potential he is a backup QB, and has a lot of SLEEPER potential. He is a late pick, and worthy of a pick because him and Walker could have a lot of chemistry.

Ron Dayne and Tatum Bell -Thunder and lightning ????

With Mike Anderson going out the door, this moves Dayne up the depth chart and will surely boost his numbers. I think Dayne will be the TJ Duckett of the squad with maybe 800 yards but 7 TDs,

Tatum Bell last year ran for 921 yards with 8 TDs. I expect him to crack 1000 yards this year and maybe get 8 TDs, depending on Dayne stealing the goal line carries. I think Bell has a lot of talent, and is a solid sleeper as well. He could be their Clinton Portis and be the 15/15 guy (1500 yards and 15 TDs). Denver is known for making RBs stars, and I think Bell is the star here, and not Dayne (despite others guesses)

Bell is worthy of a mid round pick somewhere between the 6th and the 10th, while Dayne is a late pick, I would say maybe the 13th round, but in most drafts he will go earlier. You need to play Ron Dayne by ear, because he could win the starting job, in which case he could be worthy of even a 4th round pick. Thats how important it is to be the starting RB in Denver

Jevon "people will forget I exist" Walker

As I stated above Walkers last full season had 1400 yards and 14 TDs which are top tier WR numbers. He is in a new offense that spreads the ball out and runs the ball a lot. Walker has so much talent however, but is coming off an ACL tear. I have a lot of love for this guy, so I think he can work through the Plummer issues that might be had for a 1200 yard 7 TD season.

He is ranked around 20th on my list, and is one of my top sleepers. If you are in a 3 WR league I would want this guy as my 3rd WR, behind let say a Fitzgerald and a Marvin Harrison, which is very possible (Fitz in late 3rd, and Harrison in late 4th). I want Walker with 2 reliable starters and then a VERY reliable backup like a Rod Smith or Keenan McCardell. Walker has some undeniable question marks, so you need to be careful about his backups.

Where to draft him: While Walker might very well explode for a big year, I would be very cautious of having him as my #2 receiver. He is a 5th round pick at earliest, because in the 4th round guys like Willie Parker and Warrick Dunn are still on the board, and RBs are just more valuable and worth the earlier picks. He is very likely this years Steve Smith (who i got in the 7th round last year).

DEFENSE

I think this defense will have a great year, they got Kenard Lang in the offseason, and CHamp Bailey is coming off a 2 TD 8 INT season. Look more of the same 16 PPG, and about 30 Takeaways and Sacks.

They should be a very late round draft pick.

Fantasy Preview: Dallas Cowboys

2006-08-07T13:41:00.000-07:00

There were plenty of highlights in the 2005 NFL Season. There was Shaun Alexander's record-setting season, the Indianapolis Colts' regular season dominance, the Houston Texans' regular season incompetence, the Pittsburgh Steelers' run through the playoffs, Larry Johnson's ridiculous second half, Chicago's dominating defense, Cincinnati's resurgence, New England's playoff failures, and the exhilirating Steelers-Colts playoff game, to name a few. But no highlight was more satisfying in my opinion than the Redskins sweeping the Cowboys. Those two Mark Brunell-Santana Moss bombs in the late fourth quarter of that Week 2 game may have been two of the top sports moments of my life. Then, there was Week 15, a game I watched live while studying for finals. Although Chris Cooley's 3 TD game knocked me out of the playoffs, I watched in joy as Washington kicked the living crap out of the Cowboys. Nothing made me happier to see the Redskins clinch a playoff spot with a late-season push at the same time the Cowboys limped down the stretch to fall out of the playoffs.

Now that you know my bias, let's fantasy preview the Cowboys, who figure to have a multitude of fantasy studs this season.

Last year's fantasy rankings, curtesy Yahoo! (positional, overall)

QB: Drew Bledsoe (8, 15)
WR: Terry Glenn (11, 45)
TE: Jason Witten (5, 70)
RB: Julius Jones (22, 83)
RB: Marion Barber (33, 133)
DEF: Dallas DEF (15, 201)
WR: Patrick Crayton (79, 260)

Newcomers:
K: Mike Vanderjagt (7, 86)
WR: Terrell Owens (30, 87)

Departures:
WR: Keyshawn Johnson (31. 107)
K: Billy Cundiff (31, 1693)

Rookies:
TE: Anthony Fasano
WR: Skyler Green

No team presents a bigger fantasy celing or a bigger fantasy floor than the Dallas Cowboys. Potentially, this offense could be as dynamic as the Colts. If Terrell Owens' head is screwed on straight, if Julius Jones can avoid the nagging injuries that have killed him the past two years, and if Drew Bledsoe can be efficient and effective behind an aging offensive line, the Cowboys offense will be absolute dynamite. With those three, Terry Glenn, Jason Witten, and new kicker Mike Vanderjagt, the Cowboys will score plenty of points and have lots of fantasy studs. But if Owens starts whining, Jones keeps getting hurt, and Bledsoe is this year's Kerry Collins, Dallas may be a fantasy graveland. More incredibly, the said celing and floor are legitimate possibilities.

One thing we can probably assume is that, as long as Terrell Owens is in the lineup, Drew Bledsoe will be a top fantasy quarterback. Owens has already made fantasy studs out of Jeff Garcia and Donovan McNabb in his career. Without Owens, Garcia went from a fantasy starter to a backup, while McNabb went from an overrated fantasy performer to a top 5 QB in 04. Bledsoe is old, but unlike Kerry Collins last season, he has a coach that knows him, a history of solid regular-season production, and a solid running game. I expect his touchdowns and yards to skyrocket this season if he can stay healthy.

As for T.O., your guess is obviously as good as mine at this point. A personality as volitale as T.O.'s is impossible to predict. However, Owens' history indicates that he will be a model citizen this year. In San Francisco, Owens was not a distraction in his first big year in 2000. Owens and Garcia got along fine even while the team finished 6-10. In 2001, Owens had an even bigger season, and there was still very little tension. It was only in Owens' last season, 2003, that he became a real cancer. After the tumultuous 2004 offseason, Owens was a model citizen in Philadelphia in his first season. There were a couple minor skirmishes, but for the most part, Owens did his job and made that team better without complaining. It was only after his heroic Super Bowl effort and the ensuing offseason holdout that kicked off last season's antics. My point is that Owens has historically had a "honeymoon" period before going crazy. With a legendary coach in Bill Parcells to keep him in check, I don't think we're going to see T.O. de-activated this season.

This year is also a key year for Julius Jones. The durability issues are a bit of a concern, but those types of nagging injuries often go away. As long as Bill Parcells is committed to the run, Jones should get the majority of the carries. Marion Barber did show a lot of promise filling in for Jones, but I don't see Barber as an every-down back. Most people are talking about Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, or Steven Jackson as this year's breakout backs, but don't forget about Jones come draft day.

Finally, keep an eye on the Dallas defense as a potential late-round sleeper. The Cowboys had a very young defensive unit last year, but still ended up in the middle of the pack, ranking 15th. They spent a lot of money to upgrade the unit, signing three key free agents in Akin Ayodele, Rocky Bolman, and Marcus Coleman while drafting Bobby Carpenter and Jason Hatcher. The Cowboys could be a potential force in their second year in the 3-4.

Stock Report

BUY:

Drew Bledsoe: Anytime you add one of the best receivers in NFL history, it will benefit the quarterback. Bledsoe is going to be a dynamite fantasy QB this season.

Julius Jones: Just a gut feeling. With Bill Parcells commitment to the run, Jones will stay healthy this season and have a 1400 yard/12 TD season.

HOLD:

Terrell Owens: This hold is primairly based on his 2004 production, not his 2005 production. Considering past history, I think T.O. will be a model citizen this year. That means he will return back to the top of fantasy receivers this year.

Mike Vanderjagt: Vanderjagt actually was pretty mediocre last season, finishing only 7th among fantasy kickers. The move away from Indianapolis will probably hurt his numbers a bit, but the Dallas offense could potentially be just as explosive. Vanderjagt should probably once again be somewhere among the top fantasy kickers.

SELL:

Jason Witten: Will lose catches to T.O.

Terry Glenn: See above.

With that in mind, where would I pick them in a TD-heavy, 10 team league?

Terrell Owens: 2nd. Possibly early second
Julius Jones: Late second, but you can probably still get him in the third.
Drew Bledsoe: 6th
Jason Witten: 12th
Terry Glenn: 13th
Mike Vanderjagt: 15th
Dallas DEF: 15th

Blog updates

Ron will not have access to the computer tomorrow, so we're going to have to wait a day for the Denver Broncos fantasy preview. The revised plan is for tomorrow to be a fantasy running backs version of Tuesday's Top 10. Wednesday, we're going to give you a doubleheader of fantasy team previews. Ron will have the Broncos, and I've got a preview of the Lions. Thursday, Ron will look at the Texans, and Friday, I'll have a preview of the Packers.

We do have bigger news, however. The tenative plan is to record at least one NFL preview podcats to have up on the blog by Friday morning! We still have to play around a bit with the software, but Ron already sent me a test podcast that sounds fine. We still haven't decided how to divide up our NFL previews, but we still hope to have a podcast up by the end of the week.

Finally, 4 spots remain in the Bloggers Fantasy Football League. Ryan McNeil from the awesome HoopsAddict.com and the recently deceased Killer Crossover Podcast is in, joining Alex Abboud from Sports Matters, Jason Kent from Critical Fanatic, and (still not officially, even though we've sent him 5 million invites), Adam Green from the WBRS Sports Blog. I know there are plenty bloggers out there that want to test their fantasy skills against their counterparts, so sign up quick before we run out of spaces. Comment with your e-mail and we'll sign you up!

Fantasy Preview: Chicago Bears

2006-08-06T13:10:00.000-07:00

The words "Chicago Bears" and "fantasy juggernaut" didn't belong in the same sentence last season, but that didn't stop the Bears from coming out of nowhere and winning 12 games last season. Navigating through a soft schedule, the Bears used their fantastic defense to mask their offensive deficiencies. Despite starting the immortal Kyle Orton at quarterback for much of the season, the Bears kept winning because the defense literaly outscored their opposition. Orton was eventually replaced in Week 15 by Rex Grossman, who impressed after recovering from an ACL injury. Eventually, however, the Bears defense finally faltered, allowing Steve Smith to go wild in the Bears' divisional playoff loss to the Panthers.

There really isn't all that much to talk about here with Chicago, so this will be short and sweet.

Last year's fantasy rankings, curtesy Yahoo! (positional, overall)

RB: Thomas Jones (10, 34)
DEF: Chicago DEF (1, 35)
WR: Muhsin Muhammad (37, 135)
TE: Desmond Clark (28, 219)
K: Robbie Gould (27, 244)
RB: Adrian Peterson (56, 255)
WR: Justin Gage (78, 1312)
QB: Kyle Orton (34, 1376)
RB: Cedric Benson (89, 1508)

Newcomers:
QB: Brian Griese (37, 1383)

As you can see, there really isn't much to write about here. Stay away from Rex Grossman until he shows something over a longer period of time. Muhsin Muhammad isn't a bad receiver, but he's not worth a selection until very late in the draft. Robbie Gould isn't going to get any value playing in Soldier Field, and Desmond Clark and Justin Gage aren't worth a thing.

The only really interesting situation is at running back. Thomas Jones quietly had a fantastic season last year, ranking 10th overall among all running backs. While most of his production came early in the season, he still was a pretty decent option all season. However, the Bears have a lot of money invested in 2005 first-round draft pick Cedric Benson and have all but given him the starting running back job. Many are pegging Benson to be a solid sleeper pick in the middle rounds of the draft, but it seems to be an all-or-nothing proposition. Chicago hasn't historically gone with running back by committee backfields, and Benson's blocking and receiving skills leave a lot to be desired. When the Bears first signed Jones, the intention was for him to split carries with Anthony Thomas, but that never ended up being the case. Last season, the Bears were hoping to incorporate Benson into the mix, but he never really stole carries from Jones and backup Adrian Peterson. Personally, I think Jones will eventually regain the starting job and have a similar season to last year. The Bears tried to phase him out last season, and Jones went out and had the best season of his career. Chicago's offense desperately needs a workhorse back, and I'm not confident that Benson is that guy right now.

As for the defense, there will be an owner who will reach to take them. Don't be that guy. For all their accomplishments last season, the Bears defense still was in first place by only 5 fantasy points over Carolina. In addition, other than kickers, defense are the most unpredictable from year-to-year. Last year, the consensus top 3 defenses were New England, Baltimore, and Buffalo, and all three ended up disappointing. While I don't expect Chicago's defense to fall as far as those three, there's absolutely no upside in taking them so high.

Stock Report

BUY:

Rex Grossman: Basically, he goes from a "don't even consider" guy to a "maybe if he starts off well and has the right matchup, I'll use him for a bye week" guy. That doesn't sound like much, but it is an improvement.

Cedric Benson: If only because he won't be as unproductive as last season. Don't expect him to be a legitimate starting fantasy RB, but he's definetly worth a middle-round pick to stash away on the bench.

HOLD:

Muhsin Muhammad: By now, you know what you're getting with him. No matter who's throwing the ball, he'll get his 700 yards and 5 TDs. Not great, but you could certainly get a worse 5th wideout.

Thomas Jones: I'm in the minority here, but I really don't see Jones just going away while Benson takes over the feature role. Benson's not the workhorse back this team needs, and Jones does his best work with his back against the wall. They've been trying to replace him ever since he got to Chicago, but he keeps coming back and having solid seasons. I don't expect this year to be any different.

SELL:

Chicago Defense: Like I said, they were beyond incredible last season. During the middle of the season, they were carrying fantasy teams with touchdown after touchdown. There's no way that happens again this season. Steve Smith exposed their secondary weaknesses in the playoffs, and it doesn't appear that the Bears have improved that spot much. Considering the year-to-year average fluctuation of the defensive rankings, taking Chicago so early in the draft has absolutely no upside.

Kyle Orton: I really just wanted an excuse to post this incredible picture...

With that in mind, where would I pick them in a TD heavy, 10 team league?

Thomas Jones: 6th
Cedric Benson: 7th, yes, behind Jones.
Chicago DEF: 10th at the very earliest. Since they'll be gone in every draft by this time, I'm basically putting them on my exclude list.
Muhsin Muhammad: 14th

And now, a couple reminders...

We've been a bit slower than expected with these fantasy previews, but I am here to tell you that this procrastonation is officially over! In fact, here's the schedule for next week.

Monday: I'm back with a preview of Homer Simpson's favorite team (and my least favorite), the Dallas Cowboys. Is Drew Bledsoe's this year's Kerry Collins, or is he a legitimate fantasy starter? I've got the answer.

Tuesday: Ron's got Homer's actual team, the Denver Broncos. What does the addition of Javon Walker mean for the offense? I hope Ron thinks he's going to be good, because I invested a 4th round pick in him yesterday in a fantasy league. Also, a special fantasy football edition of Tuesday's Top 10.

Wednesday: Detroit Lions time. Last year, Ron stole my sleeper pick in Roy Williams, forcing me to settle for my backup option, Larry Fitzgerald. Look how that one turned out.

Thursday: Ron's got Reggie Bush's team, the Houston Texans. Wait, they picked Mario Williams instead? Good news for Domanick Davis. Or is it?

Friday: We end the week with a fantasy preview of Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers. Where should Brett Favre be drafted? The answer may surprise you.

Also, there are 5 spots still open in the Blogger Fantasy Football League on NFL.COM. Ron and I are already joined by Alex Abboud at Sports Matters, Jason Kent from Critical Fanatic, and (hopefully) Adam Green over at the WBRS Sports Blog. If you love fantasy football and you have a blog, be sure to sign up. Just post your e-mail in the comments section, and we will send you an invitation.