Double Entry Bookkeeping

2019 第三季 (Nov) 投資績效

2020-01-17T08:34:00.000+00:00

2015 第三季 (Aug to Nov) 投資績效

2015-12-21T03:57:00.002+00:00

2015 第二季 (May to Aug) 投資績效

2015-09-01T05:17:00.003+01:00

1. 這一季中國股市大跌，接著經濟狀況開始有衰退的疑慮。在此狀況下，礦業股不太可能會有轉機。所以先處分了 VALE，再看情況處分 SOUHY 。

和 VALE 比起來，BBL 的管理階層在現金流量方面的管理看起來比較好。過去十幾年，不論是市場衰退或成長，現金股利都能維持成長。目前的管理階層也承諾會維持股利成長的政策。負債比率和信用評等看起來也都還能維持住。所以如果要保留礦業股，應該要保留 BBL。以股利殖利率來說 (目前約 7%)，BBL 的股價也是在歷史低點。風險在於，低點之後還有可能有更低點，而鐵礦砂價格不知會維持在這樣的低價多久，太久也是會影響現金流量。

2. 1)這一季新聞報導傳出，在目前中國經濟前景不明的狀況下，北京不會強要地方政府整併產能過剩的鋼鐵廠。而是會透過自由市場競爭的方式，讓鋼鐵業自行整合。避免產生大規模失業的問題。

2) PKX 第二季獲利在鋼鐵價格持續滑落的情況下非常差，估計到明年也不會好轉。韓國母公司的獲利似乎在技術領先的狀況下還能繼續維持，但過去幾年獲利大好時的國外轉投資，現在開始拖累整個集團。新的 CEO 承諾會逐步處分不賺錢的海外投資，但按其計畫需要到 2017 才能完成。

3) 考量上述中國過剩產能還會維持相當長一段時間，而 PKX 雖然是全球技術最好的鋼廠，未來幾年仍然會受到海外轉投資拖累，看起來鋼鐵業或 PKX 本身都不會有轉機，決定全部處分。

3. PCP 在八月被 Buffett 以每股 $235 買下，不過交易要到明年才會完成。

4. 6 月開始台股下跌，到 8/24 全球股市大跌。這段期間提供了很好的買點，但是實際上並未大舉買進。主要是因為從這次中國經濟景氣疑慮看起來，全球經濟復甦的狀況不佳：新興市場受到原物料大跌和美元升值影響，可能陷入衰退；中國經濟景氣有疑慮；歐洲一直都不好，現在靠著 ECB QE 撐住。只有美國看起來還在緩慢復甦中。

這樣看起來，過去五年的股市，不論是台股或美股，實際上都是美國 QE 撐起來的。現在美國要升息了，而復甦的影子在美國以外國家都還沒看到，過去五年靠美國 QE 撐起的股價、PER 或股利殖利率很有可能都還是高估。因此看起來必須要重新評估選股和估價的標準，而不能就過去的名單和估價直接買進：

1) 放棄景氣循環股如礦業股和航運股，至少不要再買進。因為景氣不會很快回來；
2) 優先考慮成長股，如 PEG 低於 1 的股票
3) Blue Chips ：用以評估俗價的條件如股利殖利率及PER 要更嚴格。

2015 第一季 (Mar to May) 投資績效

2015-07-22T10:10:00.001+01:00

1. BBL / VALE

礦業股還是沒什麼起色，不過應該也不會那麼快就轉好。

中國的沿海的小礦商開始有倒閉的消息傳出，但很多成本低一點 (但還是沒有三大礦商那麼低)的中大型礦山，是地方政府或鋼廠自行投資的，這些礦山在地方政府和鋼廠的支援下，可能還可以經營一段時間；畢竟地方政府還有失業率的考量，只要還能過得去，就不要會關起來。此外，雖然海運鐵礦砂到港價格比中國自產的礦砂生產成本低，但考量到運輸到內陸的費用，海運鐵礦砂的價格競爭力就沒那麼強。

三大鐵礦商以外的海外礦商，如澳洲或美國的礦商，在目前的鐵礦砂價格下，應該是沒辦法持續經營。但目前卻又沒有關閉礦場的新消息傳出，可能要繼續觀察一段時間。

除了上述的幾個因素，影響鐵礦砂或礦商股價最主要的因素，是投資人對於中國景氣的預期，畢竟中國是海運鐵礦砂最大的客戶。目前一般的預期是鋼鐵生產的最高峰已過，未來幾年中國景氣可能有下滑甚至陷入衰退的風險。所以對於礦業股的估價就不高。

正面因素：超低的鐵礦砂價格可以逼高成本的小礦商倒閉退出市場

負面因素：小礦商退出市場的速度可能不夠快；中國對於鐵礦砂的需求正在減少，如果整併鋼廠過剩產能，甚至有可能大幅減少

目前的結論：以長期觀點來看，目前的股價和鐵礦砂價格應該是超跌 (因為高成本的小礦商還在生產)。但中短期內來講，並沒有什麼明顯可以轉好的因素。資金可能需要在此停泊相當長一段時間。

2. PKX

中國政府一直把整併鋼鐵業的過剩產業放在嘴上，但實際上一直沒有大動作。生產過剩的鋼鐵持續傾銷到歐美，造成鋼鐵價格大幅下滑。對於 Posco 來說，就算技術再好、生產成本再低，也沒辦法和不計成本生產的中國鋼廠競爭。未來要觀察中國鋼廠整併的進度(或不再整併的進度)。

3. PCP

PCP 看起來股價還是受到油價變動的影響，油價漲股價就漲，油價跌股價就跌。但實際 PCP 與原油相關的收入僅佔營收的一小部分。在市場瞭解到這一點之前，是逐步加碼的好時機。

4. FSLR

太陽能在過去五年成本已經降低了 50%，在陽光充足的地區，其發電成本已經比天然氣發電低 (即便不考量政府補助)。雖然 FSLR 採用的薄膜發電技術並非目前市場主流，但因技術先進，反而是目前各太陽能廠中，唯一獲利狀況及前景比較明確的公司。多晶矽太陽能是目前市場上主流的太陽能發電技術，但在大陸廠商殺價競爭下，相關廠商反而陷入困境。

解租屋亂象陳節如提租賃專法

2015-03-24T11:10:00.000+00:00

不知道立委為什麼現在才想到。台灣的租屋完全沒有在管理，什麼樣的房子都可以租，房東也完全不需負任何法律責任或義務。如果參考英國的規定：

- (蘇格蘭)租屋要向市政府登記。未登記就出租房屋是「犯罪行為」
- 房屋必須符合政府訂的瓦斯和電氣安全規定，所以房東通常每年會請人來檢查一次瓦斯、電氣和電線是否安全
- 家具和裝潢必須「防火」
- 房東必須加入政府核准的「押金保障機制」。如果有爭議，押金保障機構會先墊付押金給房客，再向房東求償
- 房客可以上「押金保障機構」的網站查詢房東是否以前就有爭議
- 租約內容、租約長度和租金調整都有規定

這些都可以在英國政府網站上找到：https://www.gov.uk/renting-out-a-property/landlord-responsibilities或 https://www.gov.uk/renting-out-your-property-scotland

立委加油吧！
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http://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/201503210174-1.aspx

解租屋亂象陳節如提租賃專法

字級：

發稿時間：2015/03/21 15:31 最新更新：2015/03/21 15:40

民進黨籍立委陳節如（左2）等人21日在立法院召開記者會，主張欲解決租屋亂象，應將出租3戶以上的房東視為營業行為立即適用消保法，並訂住宅租賃專法。中央社記者溫貴香攝　104年3月21日

（中央社記者溫貴香台北21日電）民進黨籍立委陳節如等人今天主張，解決租屋亂象，應將出租3戶以上的房東視為營業行為立即適用消保法，並訂住宅租賃專法。

媒體報導，張姓房東事件戳破租屋市場的險惡瘡疤，陳節如、崔媽媽基金會執行長呂秉怡、德明財經科技大學不動產投資與經營學位學程副教授花敬群等人上午在立法院召開記者會，要求制定住宅租賃專法保障租屋雙方權益，輔導租屋市場正向發展。

花敬群說，租屋市場因政府長期忽視，淪為被政府、產業等不重視的黑市，台灣租屋市場每年創造的產業價值約新台幣1000億元左右，是非常大的產業，卻淪為黑市，在沒有法制化、專業化的經營管理下，這個體系是經濟學所稱劣等財的一個市場。

陳節如建議，出租3戶以上的房東視為營業行為，立即適用消費者保護法，從大專院校周邊優先查核；檢討修訂民國91年制定的租屋定型化契約，明定應記載和不得記載事項。

在制定「住宅租賃專法」部分，陳節如說，法案應完整規範租賃雙方權利義務關係、訂立出租住宅最低屋況品質水準、租屋資訊納入登錄及揭露，並建立房屋履歷制度可公開查詢，針對好房東、好房客、好房屋機型評鑑及推薦。

其他內容部分包括研定糾紛快速處理機制及專責機構，縮短處理時程、相關專業服務與行業扶植，相關證照與行業管理。1040321

2014 第四季 (Dec 2014 to Feb 2015) 及全年 (Mar 2014 to Feb 2015) 投資績效

2015-03-01T01:51:00.002+00:00

1. 礦業股 BBL 及 VALE

這一季趁著鐵礦砂價格大跌，增加了 BBL 的部位並買進 VALE。但其實手上還有一大筆礦業基金，整體說起來，放在礦業股票的比重偏高 (overweight)。BBL 和 VALE 以景氣循環股常用的評價方式 PBR 來看，都已經跌破過去十幾年來的低點。三大鐵礦砂不顧價格大跌，反而大幅增產的目的在於逼迫高成本的小礦商退出市場。雖然不知道低點會持續多久，但是在三大礦商仍有獲利的情況下，評估目前已經在低點，再下跌的風險不大。在目前礦業股低點的情況下，贖回礦業基金顯然是不划算，不如再投入一部份資金，期待下半年到明年回升的時候可以彌補一點損失，到時候順便贖回礦業基金。

值得注意的是，雖然三大礦商佔海運鐵礦砂的 70% ，但實際上三大礦商佔全球鐵礦砂銷量僅有 30%。也就是說，有一半的鐵礦砂是在本土透過陸運銷售的。三大礦商的生產成本雖然低，但是加上海運費用，與本土礦商相比就不一定划算。三大礦商的優勢在於鐵礦砂的品質比各國本土礦商要好，鋼鐵廠煉製成本比較低，也比較環保。

2. PKX 也是用景氣循環股常用的評價方式 PBR 來評估，已經跌破 2009 金融風暴的低點。Munger 已經處分了 PKX，從 BRK 的申報資料裡還看不出來 Buffett 是否也處分了。但以目前狀況來看，再跌破低點的機率不是很大，先保留這個部分並伺機加碼。

3. 航運股

中航和裕民短期內似乎看不到轉機。原先的預期是在 2015 下半年到 2016 可能會達到損益平衡，但 2015 上半年情況反而轉差。看起來雖然還沒有好轉的跡象，但以 PBR 來看，其股價已經到了歷史低點，再跌的機會也不大。以股息殖利率來看，中航有接近 3%，裕民有 5%。如果到年中或下半年仍然看不到轉機，且有其他更好的機會就處分，但目前先保留。

3. CBI

2014 下半年油價大跌後，一些相關的股票也都跟著大跌，包含提供石化及天然氣建廠服務的 CBI。其實 CBI 的營收來自原油相關部分很少，只是一般市場的印象是 CBI 和石油上游服務有關。另外 CBI 所購併之 Shaw Group 承建的核電廠延後完工時間 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/04/utilities-southern-vogtle-idUSL1N0BWHQF20130304)，有可能會和承包商 Westing House 及電力公司(Southern Company)有因此所增加成本分攤的法律訴訟。

整體評估：CBI 以 PER 來看股價偏低，值得買進；但 PER 會偏低其實是因為有一些營運上的不確定風險存在，如前述購買 Shaw Group 商譽減損以及 Vogtle 核電廠延後完工增加成本。雖然如此，法律訴訟是營造業常有的事，不盡然 CBI 最後要因此承擔所有增加的成本。自己不是這類營建工程專家，但以公司的規模和營運歷史來看，管理階層應該有能力處理這些問題。

4. WU 在 2014 第三季及第四季獲利開始恢復成長，2015 的展望也不錯。股價的反應很極端，短短幾週內就突破 52 週高點，接近 $20。未來幾季如果繼續上漲，就可以考慮處分了。

5. XIRR

這一季開始用 XIRR 計算投資報酬率，因為資金都是分筆投入，用 XIRR 計算年報酬率，與 S&P 500 TR 或台股報酬率比較較為合理。以 Feb 2013 開始的歷史報酬率來看，我的台股部位年報酬率 19%，美股部位年報酬率 3%。台股部位的表現比股價指數報酬率 14% 要好。美股部位，則因為 2014 投資 Tesco 的損失，比 S&P 500 TR 要差。本年度 (Mar 2014 to Feb 2015)的報酬率，台股部位為 15%，美股部位為 -3%，benchmark 分別為 15% 及 16%。

XIRR 目前並沒有把證券交割戶的閒置資金納入計算。下一步要把閒置資金納進來。但 benchmark 可能就要修改，不能用股價指數報酬來與整體部位投資報酬比較。

6. 目前在觀察的有 NOV 及 PCP

PCP：其實有 70% 營收來自 BA 或 Airbus 的引擎製造商，只有 20% 與油氣相關。本次下跌是因為大客戶調整庫存及原油下跌影響。商業客機的市場並沒有聽到什麼壞消息，股價很可能是過度反應。

NOV：還要看油價的變化。油價下半年到明年應該就會回升，目前則觀察變化並計算逐步趁低價分批買進。

Berkshire Hathaway: The Last Bargain

2014-12-08T06:23:00.000+00:00

Worth reading. Comment later...

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Berkshire Hathaway: The Last Bargain

Jul. 31, 2014 6:54 AM ET | 42 comments | About: Berkshire Hathaway inc. (BRK.B), BRK.A

Disclosure: The author is long BRK.B. (More...)

Summary

Potential for record operating earnings on Friday.
Operating businesses currently valued at <10x earnings.="" li="">
Historically cheap on book value, intrinsic value and look-through earnings measurements.

Berkshire (BRK.B, BRK.A) reports 2Q earnings on August 1st, and while I expect record earnings at Berkshire's non-insurance operating businesses given the combination of a huge volume increase at Burlington Northern, increased earnings at Heinz, and the acquisitions of NV Energy, Phillips Specialty Products, and the remainder of Marmon - my reasons for owning the shares are much longer-term in nature. Even as the market has significantly appreciated to above-trend multiples, Berkshire remains historically cheap on a number of different measurements. This discount to history appears unjustified given its expected financial results. Herein, I will briefly discuss three techniques which can be used to value Berkshire Hathaway and triangulate on my thesis that Berkshire is a bargain.

All forward-looking estimates contained herein are my own are subject to human error which inevitably occurs when humans try to predict the future.

Book Value:

Book value is perhaps the most cited of any Berkshire valuation measurement. Over the last 20 years, Berkshire's average price to book multiple has been 1.58x, with a high of 2.23x in 1995 and a low of 1.17x in 2011. Today, based on my book value estimate of $235 billion ($95.50 per Class B share) for the 2nd quarter, Berkshire trades at 1.33x book value. The standard deviation of Berkshire's price-to-book ratio is .28x, which assuming a normal distribution or "bell curve" would mean that Berkshire trades cheaper than its current level about 19% of the time. Inversely, we would expect Berkshire to trade at a higher multiple 81% of the time.

Year	P/B	Probability distribution
1985	1.50	39.33%
1986	1.38	24.68%
1987	1.19	8.63%
1988	1.58	50.04%
1989	2.02	93.86%
1990	1.45	32.13%
1991	1.41	27.12%
1992	1.52	41.33%
1993	1.84	82.31%
1994	2.02	94.02%
1995	2.23	98.83%
1996	1.79	77.38%
1997	1.80	78.53%
1998	1.85	83.03%
1999	1.48	35.92%
2000	1.76	73.16%
2001	1.99	92.69%
2002	1.74	71.57%
2003	1.67	62.24%
2004	1.57	49.31%
2005	1.49	38.00%
2006	1.57	47.96%
2007	1.82	79.59%
2008	1.37	23.07%
2009	1.17	7.74%
2010	1.25	12.21%
2011	1.14	6.19%
2012	1.16	7.16%
2013	1.30	16.15%
Current	1.33	19.06%
Mean	1.58
St. Deviation	0.28

However, this analysis understates how cheap Berkshire has become. Berkshire has initiated a perpetual and essentially limitless share repurchase authorization at 1.2x book value. Since the repurchase authorization has been enacted, Berkshire has never traded at a price that would allow them to repurchase their own shares. Therefore, it is unlikely going forward that Berkshire would reach the price-to-book ratios that it did during 1987 (1.19x), 2009 (1.17x), 2011 (1.14x), and 2012 (1.16x) because Berkshire would be repurchasing their own shares above this level. If we exclude these observations from our data set, Berkshire's mean price to book ratio moves from 1.58 to 1.64x and the standard deviation moves from .28 to .25x. Using this data, we would expect Berkshire to trade at a premium to its current 1.33x book value multiple 90% of the time.

Year	P/B	Probability distribution
1985	1.50	28.51%
1986	1.38	14.85%
1988	1.58	39.90%
1989	2.02	93.50%
1990	1.45	21.49%
1991	1.41	16.95%
1992	1.52	30.55%
1993	1.84	79.02%
1994	2.02	93.69%
1995	2.23	99.04%
1996	1.79	72.75%
1997	1.80	74.21%
1998	1.85	79.94%
1999	1.48	25.12%
2000	1.76	67.43%
2001	1.99	92.08%
2002	1.74	65.44%
2003	1.67	54.01%
2004	1.57	39.09%
2005	1.49	27.17%
2006	1.57	37.61%
2007	1.82	75.55%
2008	1.37	13.51%
2010	1.25	5.55%
2013	1.30	8.20%
Current	1.33	10.35%
Mean	1.64
St. Deviation	0.25

While I find this analysis to be helpful in regard to how Berkshire trades relative to its historical valuation, it is overly mechanical and does not answer the underlying question of whether Berkshire deserves to trade at a discount based on fundamental reasons.

Intrinsic Value:

Buffett has cited two metrics in his annual letter which he describes as being paramount in determining intrinsic value: earnings per share & cash plus investments per share.

By my estimate, Berkshire's operating businesses will earn $13 billion in after-tax earnings in 2014, consisting of $11.2 billion from operating businesses and $1.8 billion in insurance underwriting income. Readers should note, given the large amount of acquisitions it has made, Berkshire amortizes approximately $1.2 billion in intangible assets each year. This charge counts against earnings but does not impact free cash flow nor represent an actual economic phenomenon. For this reason, I tend to back out this expense and its commensurate tax benefit (~$400 million) and estimate Berkshire's actual earnings power at $13.8 billion. Berkshire has 2.46 billion Class B equivalent shares outstanding - so this equates to earning per Class B share of $5.60.

After-tax non-insurance operating	2014 Est.
BNSF	3,940
Mid-American	1,820
Manufacturing, Service & Retail	4,347
Finance & Financial Products	1,041
Total operating earnings	11,148


Insurance underwriting	FY 2014 Est.
GEICO	1,420
GenRE	536
BHRG	483
BHPG	362
Pre-tax underwriting profit	2,801
Taxes	984
Net underwriting profit	1,817

Total earnings	12,965
Add: After tax amortization of intangibles	800
Total earnings	13,765
Class B equivalent outstanding (Billion)	2.46
EPS	$ 5.60

Next we must calculate Berkshire's cash and investments per share. This is fairly straightforward. Based on market appreciation during the 2nd quarter, Berkshire's equity should have a fair market value of ~$123 billion with $30 billion of bonds, $31 billion of hybrid securities and $33 billion of cash ($53 less a stated $20 billion in minimum cash holdings). From this amount I subtract $5 billion of derivative liabilities, $13 billion of holding company debt, and $12 billion as an estimate for the net present value of deferred tax liabilities from investment appreciation. The sum of all of this is $187 billion, or $76 per Class B share.

Investments ($ billions)	Q2 2014 Est.
Equities	123
Bonds	30
Hybrids	31
Distributable Cash	33
Total cash plus investments	217

Less:
Derivative liabilities	(5)
Holdco. Debt	(13)
PV of deferred tax liability	(12)
Total liabilities	(30)

Aggregate value	187
Class B equivalent outstanding (Billion)	2.46
Value per Share	$ 76.02

If we deduct the $76 per share in value derived from investments and cash less certain liabilities from Berkshire's current share price $127 dollars, the implication is we are ascribing $51 per share in value to the operating businesses. Considering these businesses should earn $5.60/share, this works out to an earnings multiple of 9.6x earnings. Hopefully, you can appreciate that this appears to be incredibly cheap. It is extremely difficult to find low quality business trading at 10x earnings in today's market, nevertheless high quality businesses with predictable earnings streams like Mid-American and Burlington Northern - which together will generate about half of Berkshire's operating earnings this year.

The S&P is currently trading around 17x earnings (1970 S&P, $115 Earnings), my feeling is that Berkshire's businesses, if they traded as independent companies would likely be valued at a multiple proximate to the S&P 500. However, I tend to be a bit conservative and apply a multiple of 14x, which is a discount to the long-run historical average multiple for the S&P of 15.6x. Using the methodology we derive a value of $78 ($5.60*14) per Class B in regards to the value of Berkshire's operating businesses.

Hence, if we value the operating businesses at $78/share and the cash and assets less associated liabilities at $76/share, this works out to an aggregate value of $154/share. It makes sense to look back and see if this makes sense in the context of Berkshire's historical price-to-book ratio of 1.58x or 1.64x (excluding observations below 1.2x book). Remember that Berkshire's book value should approximate about $95.50 per Class B share in the 2nd quarter, implying that Berkshire would be valued in at 1.61x book value using this methodology. This fits squarely between the two measurements (1.58 and 1.64x) used in the discussion of book value. This is not to say we have found a perfectly precise measurement of Berkshire's inherent value, rather that we can be reasonably comfortable that at 1.33x book value we are getting a pretty good discount to fair value even when using conservative assumptions.

Look-Through Earnings:

Berkshire's stated earnings are punished by GAAP accounting because they are unable to consolidate their proportional share of earnings in equity investments. For instance, Berkshire owns 464 million shares of Wells Fargo. If WFC earned $4.20 this year - that is nearly $2 billion attributable to Berkshire's equity stake of which only $650 million will flow through Berkshire's income statement in the form of dividends. For this reason, I like to add up the earnings power of all of Berkshire's investments and add them to the earnings of the operating business to get a picture of underlying earnings power of the entire concern. Using consensus estimates, I calculate Berkshire's equity portfolio will generate $8.4 in earnings, hybrid securities $1.6 billion, and bonds at $1 billion at a 3% yield.

Investments earnings	2014 Est.
Equities	8,413
Hybrid securities	1,573
Bonds	1,000
Earnings of investment	10,985

Operating earnings	13,765

Total earnings power	24,751
Class B equivalent outstanding (Billion)	2.46
EPS	$ 10.06
Multiple	14
Value	$ 140.86
Add: excess cash per share	$ 13.41
Total value per share	$ 154.27

Using my methodology I derive earnings of about $11 billion in Berkshire investments, which added to Berkshire's operating businesses, implies total earnings of ~$25 billion. At a 14x multiple, this implies a total value of $141 per share. However, this analysis excludes any value for Berkshire excess cash of $33 billion or $13/share. Obviously the cash does not generate earnings but it is clearly of value given it could be distributed to shareholders or used to purchase additional businesses. Adding the two numbers gets to $154/share, the same valuation we arrived at in the previous section and a price to book ratio of 1.61 which is entirely in-line with historical averages.

Conclusion:

Berkshire's historic price-to-book ratio, when viewed over a long period, probably provides a reasonable basis off of which to calculate the inherent business value of the Company. Currently, Berkshire's historically low price-to-book multiple along with conservative alternative valuation techniques would imply the shares are undervalued by 20 to 25%. It goes without saying that investors should do their own work and analysis before making any investment conclusion.

2014 第三季 (Sep to Nov 2014) 投資績效

2014-12-01T02:38:00.000+00:00

1. 這一季處分了 WU、 TSCDY 和 DE

WU: WU 原本有一小部分是透過美國券商戶頭買進，但因為美國券商戶頭的 ETF portfolio 部分也不小，為避免未來稅務風險，未來會逐漸減少美國券商戶頭的部位。所以處分了透過美國券商戶頭買入 WU 部位 (但繼續持有透過複委託買入之部位)。獲利約 15%。

TSCDY: TSCDY 在兩三年內可能不會有什麼起色。新的 CEO 也說不要期望在短期內會有什麼重大的策略變化。過去幾週股價大漲，是因為分析師認為最壞的時機已過，Tesco 處分海外投資及閒置資產即可取得轉型所需之資金，不需要再發行新股籌募資金。其實分析師的觀點在幾個月前就有人提過，並不是什麼新的觀點，只是現在市場在一陣慌亂過後，對於同樣的論點居然有了完全不同的結論。趁這個機會處分，損失約 40%。如果參考 Carrefour (CFRRY) 過去幾年的股價變化，在轉型成功之前，PER 很有可能落到 4~6 之間，按照目前本業(排除 non-recurring gains/losses)的獲利狀況，股價很有可能再跌到 $6 以下。

DE: DE 是在八月及九月的時候分批買入。當初是認為 PER 偏低，且過去幾年營業狀況不錯，ROE 也很高。但十月看了 Bluepac Partners 的分析報告後(http://bluepacpartners.com/)，決定賣出。BP 的論點是：DE 過去幾年的營收、EPS 和 ROE 大增，主要是受到生質燃料需求增加的影響，玉米需求大幅增加、價格大漲，農夫的收入大幅增加，因而農夫有多餘資金提早買入或提早更新壽命可達 15 年的大型農機。如今玉米等作物價格大跌，農夫未來不會有那麼多的資金購買新農機；且過去幾年新農機銷售量大增，也表示目前農夫手上的農機都還很新，未來幾年對於新農機的需求也會大幅減少。目前的股價還未能反映出這點對於營收和獲利的影響，也就是說，按未來可能的營收和獲利評估，目前的 PER 其實偏高。處分約損益兩平。

2. 三大鐵礦砂生產商 RIO、VALE 和 BBL 在下半年不顧需求低迷，大幅增產，意圖摜壓鐵礦砂價格，迫使生產成本較高的小生產商退出市場，但 VALE 和 BBL 的股價也跟著大跌。鐵礦砂的價格也許還會再跌，但這三大生產商生產成本極低，且擴產可增加收入，應不致造成損失。另就其 PBR 來看，VALE 和 BBL 的 PBR 都已經跌破歷史低點。

3. 鴻海本季發放股票股利，獲利因而大幅增加。

4. 中航、裕民、正新及寶成主要都是因為 PER 或 PBR 相較於過去歷史偏低而繼續買進。

5. 另外這一季在觀察的有 IBM、MCD 及 CBI

IBM: IBM 又落入另外一個轉型期，管理階層打算處分獲利不佳的產品線，並轉向雲端服務。本季損失主要是因為處分晶圓廠給 Global Foundry 並認列未來要支付之金額所致。轉型沒什麼不好，在未來雲端服務的架構下，IBM 過去的主要產品和服務，如大型主機及系統等，的確有式微的危險。但是在雲端服務這個領域，IBM 並非市場領先者，Amazon、Google 和 Microsoft 都已經做得不錯。雲端服務可以讓過去需要買大型主機和軟體系統的公司節省成本，換句話說，對於過去提供這類服務的 IBM 來講，等於收入減少。這不像是件好事。

MCD: 股價受到北美營收持平、日本及中國營收受到原料醜聞的影響大幅減少。另外，美國針對提高最低薪資的罷工，也對 MCD 造成隱憂。但提高最低薪資對 MCD 來說不見得是壞事。雖然成本增加，但主要客戶群的收入也隨之增加。如果 MCD 因此下跌，是買進的好時機。

CBI: 巴菲特的持股。興建及營運石油化工廠的工程公司，2013 購併承建核電廠的 Shaw Group。過去半年下跌主要是因為一份放空報告(http://www.presciencepoint.com/uncategorized/chicago-bridge-and-iron-june-17-2014/)。PP 的論點主要是：購併 Shaw Group 的價格過高，且 Shaw Group 承包核電廠工程有很大一部份款項可能是收不回來的，如果未來確定收不回來，帳上會需要認列金額相當大的應收款和商譽減損損失。但就目前的股價來看，股價有可能已經反應的放空報告所提的問題，如果繼續下跌，可能是買進的好時機。

2014 第二季 (Jun to Aug 2014) 投資績效

2014-09-01T08:44:00.000+01:00

Carrefour (相較於 VGK) 的股價變化

2014-08-20T09:11:00.001+01:00

這是 Tesco, Carrefour 以及歐洲股票 ETF - VGK 自 2009 到目前為止的股價變化。

在 2010 Oct 以前，三者的變化相當接近。2011 Jul 發生歐債危機，VGK 由原本 40% gain 最低跌到 2012 May 的 0%。接著緩慢回升到目前的 40%。

以下將 Carrefour 的股價與 VGK 的差距變化，與 Carrefour 的管理階層變化一起看：

1. 在 2010 Oct 之前，Carrefour 的股價和 VGK、Tesco 的變化一致

2009 年初 Olofson 接任 Carrefour CEO

2. 到了 2010 Nov 左右，Carrefour 股價暴跌，跌到與 VGK 差距有 20%。此後繼續一路往下，接續 2011 的歐債危機，到了 2012 Jul 左右的最低點，已經和 VGK 差了 60%。

2011 年， Carrefour 的主要股東對於 Olofson 的表現越來越不滿意，已經開始想要請他走路，但是還是給了他半年時間補救。但是半年後 Carrefour 的業績仍然未見起色。到了 2011 年底，大股東已經對 Olofson 失去耐心，找來 Plassat 於 2012 Feb 接任 CEO。

3. 此後 Carrefour 跟著 VGK 一起回升，但是，截至目前為止，與 VGK 間 60% 的差距並未縮小。

Plassat 的策略使 Carrefour 的營收穩定下來，營業淨利也回升。但是 Carrefour 股價與歐洲整體股市表現的差距並未縮小！

Stories of Carrefour CEOs

2014-08-18T09:34:00.000+01:00

家樂福在過去十年的經營策略和最高主管更迭應該可以寫成好幾個 MBA 案例。不過在這裡還是簡單講一下過去十年不同 CEO 的不同策略。

Duran: 2005 ~ 2008

提升自有品牌的上架率，增加市區的小型店，降價。

Lars Olofson: 2009 ~2012

擴張郊區的大型店，打造比郊區大型店等大的豪華店型。增加高價產品和有機食品的比例。

Plassat: 2012 ~

1. 放鬆總公司對分店的控制，讓分店有更多的自主權決定上架商品和價格，並可自主自當地採購
2. 增加大型店新鮮食品的比例，減少其他商品；降低新鮮食品的價格。
3. 處分海外投資、縮減總公司規模以削減成本
4. 現在進行中：利用削減成本和處分海外投資所得現金，買回 shopping mall 以重新打造郊區豪華店

其實 Duran 的策略應該算是成功的。在 2005 ~ 2008 這段時間，家樂福的營業額顯著增加。且除了 2009 受到金融風暴影響外，營業淨利率也很穩定。但是這沒有辦法滿足在 2009 年取得家樂福控制權的美國私募基金。他們請 Duran 下台，找來在雀巢行銷部門任職的 Lars Olofson。

Olofson 接任的時機不佳，採取的策略就當時的經濟情況來說也非常不適當。在金融風暴過後，一般人經濟情況轉差，偏好分批多次從住家附近的小超市購買小量商品或網路購物，高價商品的銷量也受到影響。在這種情況下，Olofson 仍然堅持擴張郊區的豪華大型店和高價商品，造成家樂福營業額大幅減少，營業淨利率也急遽下降。

Plassat 的策略到目前為止算是成功的。也許有部分原因是歐洲景氣逐漸回升。營業額回升，營業淨利也提升。

幾個值得注意觀察的重點：

1. 因為消費者轉向網路購物，非食品類商品的銷售金額逐漸減少，因此需要提升新鮮食品的上架比率。
2. 降價已經是不可避免的選擇。問題在於需要降到多少，才能夠吸引消費者回籠，搶回市佔率，以及降價使營業淨利減少的程度。
3. 2013 年 Carrefour 與房地產投資業者合資買回郊區大型店的房地產，意圖重新打造郊區的豪華店。Plassat 認為要吸引消費者回到郊區大型店消費，不能夠只改造超市本身，需要連同 shopping mall 整體一同重新規劃。Olofson 規劃的豪華店受到消費者歡迎，但是投入成本太高，又受到金融風暴和歐債危機影響銷售，反而影響獲利。Plassat 找來房地產投資業者一同投資、分散風險也許是個好主意。

Estimate of return from Tesco

2014-08-12T09:46:00.002+01:00

Tesco 與 Carrefour 過去十年的 Revenue，其中 Feb15(f) 年度及 2014(f) 年度是截至目前為止過去四季之累計數：

就 Carrefour 營業收入的變化來看，Tesco 目前比較像是 Carrefour 2009 時的狀況。所以以 Carrefour 2010 以後的營收變化來估計 Tesco 未來幾年的營收：

接下看營業淨利率 (Operating Margin) 的變化：

就 Tesco 及 Carrefour 營業淨利率的變化來看，Tesco 目前營業淨利率已經較過去下滑，但尚未大幅減少，可能比較像 Carrefour 2008 時的狀況，所以以 Carrefour 2009 以後的營業淨利率變化來估計 Tesco 未來的營業淨利率：

接下來以前面估計的營收及營業淨利率估計營業淨利，業外收益以每年 $500 估計(Note)，推估未來五年的 Net Income；並以目前約當股數 2,694 估計未來五年的 EPS：

Note: 以下業外收益及 Net Income 的估計均未考慮停業部門損益及處分停業部門損益。Carrefour 和 Tesco 在過去幾年都在縮減海外投資的規模，但這部分因兩間公司海外投資狀況差異很大，難以估計，所以於此暫不考慮。

接下來看 Carrefour 在過去幾年的股價和本益比：

現在有 Tesco 估計在 turnaround 完成後的 EPS $1.1 以及 Carrefour 在 2013 的 PER 約為 12.9，可以推估 Tesco 在五年後的股價為：

$1.1 X 12.9 = $14.37

這五年之間的股利，參考 Carrefour 的股利發放率來估計：

假設 Tesco 在 Feb15 及 Feb16 兩個年度勉力維持 Feb14 的股利水準，但在 Feb17 停止發放股利，Feb18 重新開始配發股股利；Feb18 及 Feb19 之股利以 Carrefour 在 2012 及 2013 的股利發放率估計：

Feb15 ~ Feb19 合計可收到 $1.74 的股利。

與前面推估 Feb19 之股價 $14.37 合計，總計可收回 $16.12。

目前的持股成本為 $15.35，持有五年獲利 5%。

Coach's turnaround plan

2014-08-05T11:21:00.002+01:00

Disclaimers: 以下是憑印象彙總網路上看來的新聞和分析...

"Retailing is a tough, tough business, partly because your competitors are always attempting and very frequently successfully attempting to copy anything you do that's working. And so the world keeps moving. It's hard to establish a permanent moat that your competitor can't cross. And you've seen the giants of retail...a lot of giants have been toppled", by Warren Buffett.

Coach 是最近在注意的一支個股。最近半年來受到營業額下滑的影響，股價由年初約 $50 急遽下滑到目前約 $34。Coach 的主要市場在北美及中國，銷售額下滑主要因為北美的銷售額下滑，中國的銷售額尚未受到影響。銷售額下滑的主要原因：

1. Affordable luxury 這個價格帶以往是由 Coach 主導，但最近兩年出現了新的競爭對手: Michael Kors 及 Kate Spades

2. Coach 的直營店分為兩種：位在市區的全價店，和位在郊區購物中心的 outlet store。同樣的商品，在 outlet store 的價格，可以比市區全價店的價格少 40%。過去幾年在沒有競爭對手的情況下，Coach 開了許多 outlet，藉此大幅度增加銷售金額。但在同時，也嚴重的損害了品牌形象。當大部分商品都是在 outlet store 以低價出售時，消費者對於 Coach 的品牌形象已經改觀，不再認為 Coach 是個 luxury brand。

新管理階層的改善計畫主要是：

1. 從 Lowe 挖來新的設計師 Stuart Verers 以更新品牌形象

2. 產品線由女用手提包擴張到服飾、配件以及男性配件

3. 關閉績效不佳的全價店，開設更多的 outlet store

管理階層的第三個策略實在是不可思議：當 Coach 的品牌形象因為低價出售受到傷害時，反而要開設更多的 outlet store？反觀 Coach 在中國的銷售策略是以全價店為主，價位比北美的銷售價格要高。Coach 的品牌形象和銷售額反而因此不受影響。

流行產業是個很難預測的產業，品牌優勢很也難維持。原設計師 Reed Krakoff 的設計塑造了現在流行消費者所知道的 Coach，但就在一兩年內，消費者對於 Coach 的認知就不一樣了。新的設計師 Stuart Verers 是否能夠重新塑造 Coach 的品牌形象？

非常難以判斷。

Dave Lewis: a new star for planet Tesco

2014-07-31T08:37:00.001+01:00

(Disclaimer: 以下分析及數據係依據看網路新聞的印象寫出來的...)

"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.", by Warren Buffett.

前任執行長 Philip Clarke的計畫是：

1. 重新整修郊區的大型店，加入餐廳等其他設施，吸引顧客停留，不再只是為了購物

2. 停止開發郊區的大型店，並計畫將閒置土地開發為住宅或其他用途

3. 開設市區的小型店
4. 不再堅持毛利；降價以吸引顧客，以略高的價格與廉價超市競爭
5. 開始銷售自有品牌手機和平板，並擴大網路購物來店取貨的服務，繼續增加網路銷售的規模

1.~4. 基本上和 Carrefour 所採取的策略相同，但 Carrefour 花了三年時間，兩任 CEO 在 2012 才完成。而且就算是目前 Carrefour 的 ROE 已經回到 15% 以上，EPS 也只是略低於當初的水準，股價也已經沒有辦法回到當年了：市場對於 Carrefour 看法已經改變，不會再給予像當初那麼高的本益比。

5. 基本上是學習 Amazon 的策略。Tesco 約佔全 UK 整體零售規模的 10%，網路購物佔 Tesco 營業額的 7%。換言之，Tesco 的網路銷售規模約佔全 UK 整體零售規模的 0.7%，就這點來說 Tesco 是 UK 網路銷售的領先者，而且是大幅領先。不僅如此，其網路銷售去年的成長率高達 14%。此外，單就在網路上購買食物(生鮮食品)而言，Tesco 有 50% 的市佔率。

現在看起來，Philip Clarke 採取的策略其實是正確的，只是做的有點太晚了而已。Tesco 大約還會有兩到三年的苦日子要過。網路銷售的部分，Amazon 現在的營業額佔全美零售業銷售額約 8% (Walmart 約 10%)，如果 UK 的市場變化未來會和美國近似，UK 網路銷售還會有很大的成長。以 Tesco 目前在 UK 網路銷售的優勢，未來大有可為。

新任 CEO Dave Lewis 要到十月才會上任。就他的背景來看，似乎沒有固定的偏好，反而是能夠依據市場狀況變化，採取各類不同策略的人。而現在市場上對於 Tesco 應採取的策略有以下幾種看法：

1. 直接、大幅度降價與廉價超市競爭
2. 採取多品牌策略，在不同地區依當地市場狀況分別設立低價、中階或高階的超市
3. 放棄手機和平板以及網路銷售，重新聚焦在實體店面的經營

如果 Philip Clarke 還是 CEO，我會對於 Tesco 的未來稍微有信心一點。畢竟 Carrefour 已經走過一樣的路，證明這是可行的策略。而且以 Tesco 在網路銷售的競爭優勢，未來有很大的成長空間。

一開始那句話是 Buffett 談到 turnaround companies 的時候說的。套在 Tesco 身上，無論 Dave Lewis 是否是好的執行長人選，Tesco 是否能夠好轉，還是要回到 Tesco 本身的 business model 來看。

就最近半年來在 BBC news 上面看到對於 Tesco 的批評，好像看到台灣人對於 7-11 的批評：大家就算再不喜歡 7-11 ，一再抱怨到處都是 7-11，沒有別的選擇，消費者還是一再回到 7-11 購物。

也許 Tesco 跟 7-11 一樣，都是:

a company we love to hate.

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Dave Lewis: a new star for planet Tesco

By Graham Ruddick | Telegraph – Sat, Jul 26, 2014 14:35 BST

The supermarket’s incoming boss, Unilever (NYSE: UL - news) man Dave Lewis, must be a master of the retail universe, writes Graham Ruddick

In 1997, Procter & Gamble was preparing to take Ariel into Argentina and the southern tip of South America known as the Southern Cone for the first time.

Ariel was, and still is, one of the world’s best-known detergent brands. Expansion into Latin America was the next phase of growth.

However, P&G had not banked on Dave Lewis and his team. Lewis, who was this week named the new chief executive of Tesco (Xetra: 852647 - news) , was about to give P&G a lesson in how to defend a brand.

At the time, Lewis was director of marketing for Unilever in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. Unilever owned Ariel’s main rival, Persil, which was dominant in the region, accounting for 80pc of the market. It was concerned about the impact Ariel could have on sales. So, Lewis and his team hatched a plan. They discovered Unilever owned an obscure lavatory seat maker called Ariel del Plata.

The brand had never advertised in its 30-year history, but Unilever launched an extravagant campaign featuring rear-ends and toilets which repeated “Ariel, Ariel, Ariel” over and over again.

The campaign made the Ariel name synonymous with lavatory seats, ruining P&G’s plans to launch Ariel.

The US consumer groups giant was furious with its Anglo-Dutch rival, complaining to the Argentinian government that it was overseeing “serious illegal and unfair” practices.

However, the damage was done. After spending more than $500m (£295m), P&G withdrew from the market.

The lessons are still used by Unilever today as a benchmark for taking on competition. But the South American parable should also serve as an eye-opener for Asda, J Sainsbury and Wm Morrison.

On this evidence, Lewis is an imaginative and ruthless operator who could shake up the supermarket industry.

Paul Polman, chief executive of Unilever, has given his blessing to Lewis to take on the challenge at Tesco. “Dave is well-prepared, but it’s not an easy job,” he said.

Shares (Frankfurt: DI6.F - news) in Tesco’s listed rivals Sainsbury’s and Morrisons dropped 3.5pc in the two days following the announcement.

Although Tesco issued a profit warning , which cautioned that trading conditions were tough, alongside news of Lewis’s arrival, investors in the other supermarkets are concerned about the prospect of a wounded Tesco mounting a powerful counter attack.

David McCarthy, analyst at HSBC, said: “There will be a lot of pain along the way, without any guarantee of success. But the consequences of change at Tesco will be felt by Sainsbury and Morrisons as Tesco tries to reassert itself.”

The decision to oust Philip Clarke was not a knee-jerk reaction by Sir Richard Broadbent, the chairman of Tesco. Rather, it was a ruthlessly planned and executed coup.

The process is understood to have begun in April, when Clarke (Toronto: CKI.TO - news) was becoming increasingly criticised by former directors following the ousting of Laurie McIlwee as chief financial officer.

By this point Clarke was three years into the job as Tesco chief executive, but his £1bn plan to “Build a Better Tesco” appeared to be making little impact on sales.

This strategy involved revamping hypermarkets by installing Harris + Hoole coffee shops, improving own-brand food ranges and investing in digital ventures such as BlinkBox. It was based on Clarke’s view that Tesco had too much space across the UK, had underinvested in stores, and needed to develop its online services.

However, some leading shareholders and former directors became increasingly frustrated at Clarke’s reluctance to tackle what they saw as the key challenge for Tesco that the brand did not stand for anything any more.

Shoppers were deserting Britain’s biggest retailer for either Waitrose or Marks & Spencer (Other OTC: MAKSF - news) for quality food, or Aldi and Lidl for low prices. Many believed Tesco had to cut prices to move in line with Aldi and Lidl.

“It was a bit surprising,” one top-10 shareholder said of Clarke’s departure. “But one of the main issues has been that the strategy had to change.”

Around this time, Sir Richard approached a handful of potential successors. Lewis had already been identified by shareholders as a chief executive-in-waiting, as reported by The Sunday Telegraph earlier this year, and was well known by the board.

Patrick Cescau, the senior independent non-executive director at Tesco, was the contact at the retailer for many disillusioned shareholders and played a key role in the arrival of Lewis.

Cescau was chief executive of Unilever before Polman, running the business between 2005 and 2009, and extolled the virtues of Lewis to the board. But Lewis was also known to Clarke and the management team.

Unilever, which owns Flora, Lynx and Dove, is one of Tesco’s biggest suppliers and just two months ago the senior teams at both companies met.

In addition, Lewis was respected by the powerful Tesco old guard, many of whom are still shareholders. Sir Terry Leahy is understood to have tried to hire the 49-year-old while he was chief executive, and Sir Terry’s finance director Andy Higginson sits on the board of BSkyB with Lewis.

After Lewis was approached, he began a formal interview process and met with the nominations committee. This culminated in a job offer just over a week ago. The board approved the announcement in a conference call on Sunday night, and the changes were made public on Monday morning.

The recruitment process had been run with only a tiny group of people in the loop including Sir Richard, Tehan, and the rest of the nominations committee, Cescau, Stuart Chambers and Ken Hanna.

Although Clarke was quoted in the statement as saying it was the “right moment to hand over responsibility”, he was only told on the Friday night after the markets closed.

Privately, Clarke admits feeling “heavy-hearted relief” about stepping aside. He will have led Tesco for three and a half years when he stands down on Oct 1, and the pressures of the role are understood to have placed a strain on family life.

As well as the travelling and time demands that come with being Tesco chief executive, newspapers were banned in the Clarke household because of the criticism of the Tesco boss. He was due to celebrate his 40th anniversary as a Tesco employee with a party at the Victoria and Albert Museum last Tuesday. When this was cancelled, it was seen as a harsh move by Tesco.

But in reality, the party is likely to have acted as deadline for the nominations committee to resolve the succession issue. After all, it would have been even harsher to celebrate Clarke at the party then oust him afterwards.

The back story behind Clarke’s departure is important, because it demonstrates that Sir Richard has planned meticulously for Tesco to take a different course. Although he has been careful not to tie Lewis down by making public comments on the success or failure of Tesco’s strategy, Sir Richard has said he wants a “fresh perspective”.

“He is a proven turnaround man,” Sir Richard said of Lewis. “He is a leader in brand management and identity. He is a great communicator.”

Sir Richard has asked Lewis to think “laterally and broadly” about Tesco, which given his track record at Unilever should deliver interesting results.

It is understood Lewis wants to “listen” to customers and Tesco staff before deciding on a strategy and will use the treasure trove of data that Tesco possesses on shoppers.

Analysts have not been short of suggestions. Bruno Montenyne, analyst at Bernstein, says Tesco should consider splitting its stores into three and rebranding them as Tesco Value, Tesco Finest and a midmarket store. This would allow it to compete properly with the discounters and Waitrose. “Tesco faces distinct and targeted local competitors in most of its neighbourhoods,” he said.

John Kershaw at Exane has urged Lewis to sell off Tesco’s international businesses to help fund a revamp in the UK. He has estimated a sale of Tesco’s Asian assets could raise £11bn. “The international portfolio surely will be streamlined and a 'bad land bank’ ring-fenced and monetised to simplify the business, improve cash generation and cover the dividend,” he said.

But the favoured option for a number of shareholders is for Lewis to push the nuclear button and start an all-out price war to win back shoppers. This would make the market more difficult for Aldi and Lidl, but the European discounters have shown a willingness to move their prices even lower when one of the “big four” tries to close the gap.

However, Asda, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons would feel the pressure. Carrefour’s recent turnaround in France involved its profit margin falling from more than 6pc to a low of 1.5pc. Tesco’s still stands at 4.5pc, so there could be much further to go.

If Lewis decides to rebase Tesco’s margins then Sainsbury’s and Morrisons, which have margins of less than 4pc, could be severely squeezed. Morrisons has already warned that its profits will fall by half this year as it lowers prices to compete with Aldi and Lidl. The change of leadership at Tesco has given Dalton Philips, chief executive of Morrisons, a new concern. It will also strengthen the resolve of frustrated shareholders to push for change at the Bradford-based company.

When Lewis starts work at Tesco’s Cheshunt headquarters on Oct 1, a lot will be a stake, but not just for Britain’s biggest retailer. The rebuilding of Tesco will not be victimless, and Lewis has shown how far he is willing to go to protect his company’s brand.

The lessons from Carrefour for Tesco

2014-07-27T09:22:00.000+01:00

Tesco plc 是世界上第三大零售商，僅次於 Walmart 和 Carrefour (家樂福)。當初開始追蹤 Tesco 的時候，有看了一下 Carrefour 的一些數字，發現和 Tesco 比起來，Carrefour 的毛利率、淨利率和 ROE，比 Tesco 低很多。但是並沒有再追蹤下去為何如此。

買進 Tesco 的原因，是認為 Tesco 的淨利率和 ROE 看起來不錯，股價下跌應該只是因為處分虧損多年的美國轉投資所造成，本業和其他海外投資的狀況都還不錯。等到市場充分反映了這個事實，股價應該能回到正常的水位。

但是目前看起來，Tesco 的問題不只如此。最近這半年來的新聞和財報，顯示英國的主流零售商，受到來自歐洲(德國)的廉價超市影響，市佔率普遍下滑。此外，目前消費者偏好轉向住家附近的小型超市，減少前往郊區大型超市消費的次數，也使過去在郊外設置大型超市的主流零售商的營業額相對減少。

而這個現象，依據以下的報導，是過去十年歐洲已經發生的事實。英國主流零售商目前只是在跟隨歐洲主流零售商過去面臨的相同困境！

如果確實如此，目前在 Tesco 的部位也許不適合再繼續長期持有。畢竟 Tesco 未來很可能面臨目前 Carrefour 的相同處境，毛利率和 ROE 也會降低。目前的股價，也很有可能還是高估了。

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The lessons from Carrefour for Tesco

By Graham Ruddick | Telegraph – Mon, Jul 21, 2014 17:42 BST

Tesco (Xetra: 852647 - news) could face more pain if parallels with Carrefour (Paris: FR0000120172 - news) in France continue

If Tesco’s board and shareholders are looking for clues as to the battle ahead for the retailer, then look no further than Carrefour.

The similarities between the struggles facing Britain’s biggest retailer and France’s biggest retailer are stark.

The pair battle it out for the title of the world's second biggest retailer behind Walmart. But although Tesco and Carrefour have operations around the world, they rely heavily on their domestic businesses - and they have been struggling.

Roughly two-thirds of Tesco sales are from the UK, while half of Carrefour’s are from France.

In France, Carrefour has been under pressure in the last decade from discount chains and shoppers moving away from out-of-town supermarkets. Sound familiar?

Bruno Monteyne, analyst at Bernstein, said: "Both have generalist ‘good at everything’ retail offers, which are great when you are the first to open a supermarket on the edge of town.

"Both started struggling when people were getting more local choice of targeted retailers. In France it was Leclerc - offering value food, much cheaper than Carrefour. In the UK it was the discounters."

Carrefour’s answer to its challenges was also to hire a chief executive from the consumer goods world in 2009.

Carrefour brought in Lars Olofsson from Nestle (VTX: NESN.VX - news) as chief executive, but this led to five profits warnings in a year and he departed soon after.

Olofsson invested heavily in revamping Carrefour’s out-of-town stores and trying to make them upmarket destinations. However, he then slowed down the refurbishment programme and tried to cut prices.

Dave Lewis, Tesco’s chief executive, already knows he needs to do more that because his predecessor Philip Clarke has tried a similar strategy.

It took a radical back-to-basics overhaul from Georges Plassat, who replaced Olofsson, to get Carrefour back on track. He decentralised power to local stores, cut prices, and pulled out of underperforming overseas markets.

As a result, Carrefour last week reported an increase in like-for-like sales in France and its out-of-town hypermarket.

This should give Tesco hope that it can turnaround its performance. However, Carrefour’s turnaround is at least two years ahead of Tesco, and it has come at a heavy cost. Profit margins in France slumped from more than 6pc to a low of 2.5pc.

The lesson from France is that Britain’s biggest retailer faces more pain before trading improves.

跨境查帳擬設限 F股罩烏雲

2014-06-27T01:44:00.000+01:00

跨境查帳擬設限 F股罩烏雲

【經濟日報╱記者蘇珮儀／專題報導】

2014.06.24 03:10 am

大陸4月公布《會計師事務所跨境執行審計業務暫行規定》新10條，規範會計師事務所跨境執行審計業務行為，建議陸企如在境外上市，負責有關工作的境外會計師事務所須與當地事務所合作，維護投資者利益和市場秩序，宣稱財報透明度將提高，正式的法規可望不久後上路。

台灣首樁遭海外放空機構狙擊的F-再生事件，掀開了大陸公司財報風險的壓力鍋，也掀起台灣證券市場風暴。財報是投資人是否要投資該公司的重要參考依據，大陸官方正研擬的一項審計新規，卻遭質疑將降低審計透明度，恐再挑戰投資人對大陸F股的信心。

以台灣為例，2008年開放F股來台上市後，會計師以「臨時審計證」派員或親自赴陸查帳將禁止，F股的簽證會計師事務所未來須透過當地合格會計師進行查帳，並由台灣所承擔全數責任，其他國家或區域依此類推。

審計的議題不是會計小圈圈的問題。有會計師指出，審計是影響投資信心、經濟發展的大問題；就投資人角度而言，F-再生事件凸顯跨境審計監理受限、財報透明恐降低的難題，真實性更難辨。

例如即將在美上市的阿里巴巴，就在上市文件中提醒投資人，「美國監管機構未能審查其外部審計機構普華永道香港合作所進行的工作」，並列為風險事項。

一位不願具名的會計師認為，F股財報可委由台灣會計師所屬事務所合作的國際會計師事務所執行查核，再由台灣方出具查核報告；但問題出在跨境監控效力有限，主管機關僅規定事務所要定期檢查等監理機制，卻難確保受委託國外事務所的查帳品質。

受《暫行規定》影響最深、反彈最大的香港業界直指，「此舉恐將影響國際投資人的信心，過去20年，都是香港會計師事務所及其他國際會計師事務所，肩負資本市場守門員的角色」。南華早報引述香港註冊會計師協會主席Clement Chen稱，新規侵蝕國際會計師參與查核的機會、審計過程更不透明；而海外會計師須為大陸會計師審計失敗負責更是一大不公。

不過，台灣四大會計師事務所中的安永與安侯建業都認為新規對台灣方面影響不大。安永台灣所營運長張嵐菁受訪表示，近年已與大陸當地的安永建立良好合作模式，新規上路不會為該所帶來衝擊。

【記者蘇珮儀／專題報導】大陸《會計師事務所跨境執行審計業務暫行規定》預計收回境外會計師「臨時審計」名義查帳權利，背後還隱藏一套「資訊在地主義」的政治意涵。

審計權是「國家主權」的彰顯，「資訊在地主義」簡言之即認定境內資訊所有權屬於己有，資訊必須留在境內之意。

不過，當記者向幾名台灣四大會計師事務所、經常赴陸查帳的派員詢問，禁止「臨時審計」查帳是否真能避免「工作底稿」外流時，對方卻說：「現在的工作底稿都電子化了（使用Excel檔），如何防止外流呢？」

【2014/06/24 經濟日報】 @ http://udn.com/

2014 第一季 (Mar 14 to May 14) 投資績效

2014-06-16T09:53:00.002+01:00

2013 第四季(Dec 13 to Feb 14) 投資績效

2014-06-16T09:51:00.001+01:00

巴菲特為什麼買IBM

2014-05-17T01:47:00.000+01:00

巴菲特為什麼買IBM（1）

2013/02/01 18:17

【撰文／黃大任】

科技、高價、重倉。巴菲特在IBM股價歷史創下新高之際大買IBM，截至2012年底，已經斥資近120億美元，收購了IBM共計約5.5%的股份，成為該公司最大股東。巴菲特聲稱：「我可能看過50年來IBM所有的年報，在今年，我決定用不同的角度來閱讀IBM的年報。在與諸多科技產業高級主管進行陸續的談話後，我決心買進IBM的股票」。買入IBM股票這個消息很快成為業界炸彈，一向熱愛傳產股的老巴轉性了嗎？其背後投資IBM的邏輯是什麼？

一、藍色巨人IBM還是不是我們認知中的高科技股？

一般而言，科技股有三個特徵：

1、大量資金的需求：科技公司的快速增長需要大量的資金投入，；此外，很多科技公司早年都是一直靠投資人的資金維持運轉，在草創初期根本連營收都沒有，遑論盈餘，即使盈利之後也要將資金再投入新業務的發展，或是投入研發，很少回報股息予投資人或是回購股票，投資人僅能從公開市場上賣出持股回收資金。科技股的這兩點特徵都是不利於長期投資者持有的。巴菲特特之前所稱不投資科技股更多也應該是基於這兩個原因。

2、營收變化大，且難以預測：科技公司的特色就是營收變化快且無法預測，就像Facebook、Netflix、等少則50%，多則100%的營收增速，小點的奇虎360增長甚至可以超過200%；但科技業產品生命週期短，行業變化太快，十年前的雅虎已經沒落、DELL與惠普已搖搖欲墜，google之後的短短幾年又有Facebook的崛起；這個行業裡的公司更多的是各領風騷三五年就殞落的流星，未來的不確定性太大，無法預測超過2年的趨勢，所以很難去預估未來收益率。

3、產業競爭激烈：高科技產業的變化速度非常快速，不似傳統產業可以慢慢看見競爭者出現，高科技產業中，新技術的突破會快速摧毀使用既存舊技術的競爭者。例如觸控螢幕手機的流行，在很短時間內就取代了按鍵式手機的市場。臉書的流行，快速的取代了MSN與Myspace。當初沒有人想到Mark Zuckerburg──一個哈佛大學把不到妹的宅男，可以在8年內改變世界。高度的產業競爭迫使業者不斷投入高資本支出於研發與增設廠房，把盈餘重新投入投資。

高科技公司就像是超速行駛的法拉利，一方面有著強大的爆發力，另一方面有嚴重的不確定性。而巴菲特看重的是產業的穩定、高可預測性與安全邊際，高科技公司的上述三點特徵，使巴菲特望而卻步。

然而，就像曾經的蒸汽機、鐵路、汽車也是他們剛出現的那個時代的高增長、高風險的「科技股」一樣；隨著時代的發展，資訊技術的某些領域也已變得成熟，增長相對穩定。

二、藍色巨人IBM是否符合上述高科技公司的特徵？

1.資金需求：IBM不斷回饋股東股利與回購股票

創立超過百年的IBM也早已走過了科技公司高資金投入的階段，進入穩定成熟的時期，其非但不需要向股東提出增資的需求，還能大量的發放股利。2012年，IBM的股息殖利率在1.5%~2%間，且近5年平均股息複利增長率為25.5%。從1995年以來，IBM已經連續17年不斷提高每季的股息；此外，IBM還累計拿出了超過1000億美元進行股票回購，在2012年，該公司高層決定把股票回購計畫的規模提高75%，至117億美元。這些不斷分配股息與回購股票的行動是建立在IBM穩定的商業營運模式下，有唯有如此穩定增長的現金流和不斷提高的EPS，才能不斷回饋股東豐厚的股息。

2.營收變化：IBM的5年複利營收成長率為1.2%、3年平均營收增長率為3.36%，營收成長穩定

IBM理解到硬體業務未來競爭將越來越激烈，殺價競爭是必然的趨勢，2002年，IBM做出一項重大的營運轉型，決定跨入管理顧問業，以35億美金收購普華永道(Pricewaterhouse Coopers)公司下屬的管理諮詢公司，美國普華永道是全球及中國最大的專業服務機構之一，它係由前兩大國際會計師事務所Price Waterhouse（普華）及Coopers&Lybrand（永道）於1998年7月1日全球合併而成，其為世界最大的會計師事務所及專業服務機構之一； 2005年，IBM將PC業務出售給聯想，把營運重點放在穩定且高毛利的企業顧問諮詢、服務及軟體上，擺脫高度競爭、低毛利的硬體產業。

附圖一是2000年至2011年的營收變化圖，IBM的5年複利營收成長率為1.2%、3年平均營收增長率為3.36%，由圖中可以看出IBM的營收增長緩慢而穩定，這是成熟產業的特徵。IBM的營收雖然成長幅度較緩，但是可預測性高、毛利也高，因此盈餘成長幅度就很驚人。而這些高利潤的業務也帶來充沛的現金流入，加上不需要負擔過多的硬體支出，大量的自由現金流量可以使IBM專注於併購關鍵公司以及研發上頭。企業永續發展與良好的股東權益報酬，以及轉型為資訊服務業為重的3 大要素，使得重視價值型投資的巴菲特願意大舉買進IBM股票，成為其長期股東。

圖／嘉鼎資本提供

2.產業競爭：IBM整體業務於2012年享有高達47.84%的毛利率！

毛利率的高低顯示出產業競爭是否激烈。一般來說，產業競爭越激烈，廠商會傾向殺價競爭，造成毛利率降低。

根據SEC檔所揭露之訊息，IBM目前共有四大業務，它們分別為軟體，硬體、服務和金融。2011年，IBM總營收為1069億美元（相較去年增長7%），其中服務貢獻佔57%營收，為其最大營收來源，軟體和硬體分別貢獻23%和18%，金融為2%。由IBM的營收來源中，我們可以發現過去以硬體銷售為主的IBM已經成功地將業務重點轉型成軟體與服務。IBM為何選擇轉型為以軟體與服務為主的公司？答案是：追逐高毛利產品，拋棄競爭激烈的低毛利產品。

首先，砍掉硬體業務上。2002年，IBM放棄市占率高達20%的全球硬碟市場，將獲利良好的硬碟業務出售給日立；2005年，將全球PC業務出售給中國聯想；2007年，將商用影印機業務出售給日本理光。在此同時，IBM成功的將業務重心移往毛利高且穩定的軟體、諮商服務業務上。

早在1995年，IBM就成立了軟體部門，隨後通過收購打造了以Rational Software、DB2、Lotus、Web Sphere和Tivoli五大軟體品牌為核心的軟體基礎設施平臺。同時，為了整合軟體、硬體與諮商服務，IBM還建立了全球服務部門，提供客戶無縫的使用體驗，避免客戶自行整合各家軟硬體服務所造成的困擾。軟體和諮商服務成為IBM近十年的業務發展重點，營收逐年在穩定且不斷的增加。2000年，IBM軟體和服務營收佔比總合約53%，而到了2011年，這個數字已達到了79%。

2008年至2010年IBM硬體業務的毛利率均值在38%左右，而軟體和服務毛利率均值卻分別達到87%和62%。就淨利率而言，硬體淨利率值在8%左右，軟體和服務淨利則分別高達40%和38%，均遠高於硬體業務。從盈利能力上看，IBM硬體業務的毛利率在38%左右的水準，而軟體和服務毛利率卻可以達到87%和62%；反觀IBM硬體淨利率只有8%左右，而軟體和服務淨利是40%和38%。淨利比率上巨大的懸殊，讓我們不難理解IBM大幅砍掉硬體業務並轉向軟體和服務的原因。反觀過去與IBM業務大幅重疊的惠普因為轉型過慢，面對激烈的硬體削價競爭，在去年出現每股盈餘-6.45的虧損，顯示後PC時代惠普因競爭過度激烈已喪失獲利能力。

全文網址: udn個人理財 - 理財高手 - 嘉鼎資本 - 巴菲特為什麼買IBM（2） http://money.udn.com/wealth/storypage.jsp?f_ART_ID=284670#ixzz2RrTVdt8e

Power By udn.com

http://money.udn.com/wealth/storypage.jsp?f_ART_ID=283371

2013 第三季 (Sep13 to Nov13) 的一些想法

2013-12-03T05:46:00.000+00:00

這一季開始把 Firstrade 的美股也一起放進來比較，所以 Benchmark 多了 S&P 500 Total Return。S&P 500 Total Return 的資料還蠻難找的。
NLY 是 2012 QE 還沒有結束跡象的時候買進的，當時的股利率還有 12% 左右。到了今年中 Fed 傳出將結束 QE 以後，股價就大跌了 20%。還好沒有買太多。現在就等看未來幾個月是否有略微回升，趁機處分掉。
WU 是不小心撿到的。九月的時候，WU 的股價還在 $19~$20 之間，因為 Firstrade 有 GT90 的下單功能，就下了一個 $16.35 的 GT90 Buy。到了 10 月底公布第三季季報時，管理階層發佈 2014 年獲利展望，因受到法律遵循成本(compliance cost)上升影響，將持平而沒有成長。這個消息一出來，股價一開盤馬上暴跌 15%，以 $15.72 開盤，所以一開盤 Firstrade 就以開盤價 $15.72 買進，當天最低到了 $15.51，但收盤時已經回到 $17.5 以上。美股因為沒有漲跌幅的限制，才讓我有這個機會以破盤價買進。這個現象還蠻有趣的。
雖然 WU 最近股價又由 $17 回到 $16，但其實公司狀況並沒有重大變化，甚至預測明年營收還會再成長，只是營收成長的部分都被增加的法律遵循成本吃掉了。看看到明年中，公司降低成本的一些措施是否有收到成效。
新普這一季好像在坐雲霄飛車，從季初約 $140 左右，幾天內暴漲至 $150以上。然後第三季季報發佈前幾天又因為外資估計未來幾年成長偏低，幾天內又從 $150 跌回 $130 以下。前幾週趁機會又在 $130 以下再買進。雖然股價暴漲暴跌，但其實新普獲利並沒有很大變化，今年每股估計還是會獲利 $10 以上，實在很難瞭解外資評價改變到底是依據什麼？這種股價變動實在很沒有道理。
今年從四月開始買進台股，到目前為止約八個月，跟報酬指數比較起來，我的績效竟然還是落後指數。雖然自己買進的依據和意圖都是長期投資，短期內可能會有落後指數的狀況，但到底這樣自己操作股票是否能夠超越指數呢？

遲了將近兩個月的 2013 第二季投資績效檢討

2013-11-04T04:53:00.000+00:00

		平均成本	佔總成本比率 (%)	占市值比率 (%)	本季(6~8月)獲利損失(%)	年度( 2013/3 ~ 2014/3)獲利/損失(%)
2317	鴻海	76.94	24%	24%	6%	5%
3010	華立	43.95	28%	24%	-6%	-6%
6121	新普	126.68	40%	42%	10%	12%
3030	德律	38.68	8%	7%	-2%	-2%
	Cash		0%	2%
			100%	100%	6%	7%

Benchmark
0050	台灣50				-2%	0%

鴻海

股價從四月買進以來沒有明顯的起色。除權息前漲到 $80 以上，除權息後也一直維持在除權息參考價 $74附近，沒有明顯的變動。公司近況部分，iPhone 5s 及 iPad 對第三季營收有正面影響，但幫助不大。接下來就要看第四季是否會有比較大的成長。PER 還是很低，市場觀感似乎認為代工業的風險較高；如果市場給予的 PER 一直偏低，即使鴻海持續維持相同的獲利能力，很難確定未來股價是否能夠回升。如果第四季股價仍沒有起色，到了明年上半年淡季來臨，股價會有什麼反應、是否能維持在除權息參考價以上，可能就很難說了。

如果股價沒有起色，進一步用定存股的角度來評估，就算鴻海維持相同的獲利能力，但如不肯發多一點現金股利，可能連定存股的價值都沒有。

新普

買進時對這間公司一點都不熟，看到新聞說 NB 電池營收因 NB市場衰退而減少，iPhone 和 iPad 電池毛利又偏低，有點擔心。不過好公司就是好公司，毛利率有維持住，競爭對手順達科就沒這麼好過了。第三季營收還不錯，未來似乎會更好。股價跟鴻海比起來活潑多了，上上下下變動速度很快，有時候一天可以漲跌 $5 ~$6。

這是現在未實現利益最多的一筆。

華立

代理業 PER 一直都偏低，雖然利潤不錯，因為代理業務有被原廠收回自營的風險。以殖利率來講，算是不錯的投資。現在就期待 PER 能夠有所反應...

德律

2012 第四季爆發賄賂鴻海高層的新聞後，營收就一直下滑。產品部分，有些人說其產品和 AIO 相同，但有些人說和牧德不同。無法確定是否鴻海已經轉單給牧德。假設以最近三季平均約 5% 的 ROE 來看，股價和 PER 在這個階段還算可以接受，就看未來是否有會好轉。

Empty home owners' council tax shock

2013-03-30T05:40:00.000+00:00

英國：原本「非主要自用房屋」(second home)和「空屋」的房地稅(council tax) 是可以打五折的，但現在市場上空屋太多，很多人買不起房子也租不起，因此許多地方政府打算要取消打折，並針對非主要自用房屋和空屋額外加徵 50% 的房屋稅！

這也許可以作為政府規劃房屋稅、地價稅及「空屋稅」的參考！

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16 March 2013 Last updated at 14:33 GMT
By Paul Lewis Presenter, Money Box

Concessions on empty homes and second homes are being removed in England

A million home owners who do not live full time in their property could see their council tax rocket in April, as most automatic discounts are to end.

The change, which will affect second homes and empty properties in England, could see bills for 2013-14 rise by 200%.

Previously, such properties had benefited from a 50% discount.

The new rules give councils more freedom to raise money locally and bring empty homes into use.

Councils do not have to increase taxes on second homes and empty property. But the Institute of Revenues, Rating and Valuation (IRRV) says early evidence suggests most of them are doing so.

Speaking on Radio 4's Money Box programme IRRV chief executive David Magor said financial need was forcing them to take advantage of the new rules.

"The government is trying to get a greater yield from council tax to keep the overall level down. And it is trying to encourage the occupation of empty homes.

"But sitting behind this is the funding of the council tax reduction scheme. Councils have had to adopt these provisions to find the money to finance those schemes."
Current exemptions
Altogether they must find more than £400m to fund the reduction scheme for low-income families. And the 710,000 empty homes and 250,000 second homes are an easy target.

“Start Quote

If they'd told us a year ago maybe I could've pushed and got it finished”

End Quote Katrina Empty property owner

Empty properties without furniture are currently exempt for six months in England and then get a 50% discount. In future the council can decide to charge the full payment from the start.

Similar changes apply to vacant properties which are undergoing major repairs or alterations. An automatic 12-month exemption ends in April and many councils are charging the full amount.

Once a property has been empty for two years they can charge a premium of 50% on top of full council tax.

Katrina bought a property in Rotherham to renovate while she still lived with her mother. Her council tax will rise from just under £50 a month to almost £150 as a 50% reduction becomes a 50% premium.

"There is no law against taking a long time to get it renovated. If they'd told us a year ago maybe I could've pushed and got it finished. But I've been given less than a month's notice."

Rotherham Council said it had consulted on the changes in the autumn.

"We had to make these very big changes because by abolishing the previous national Council Tax Benefit scheme the government left Rotherham with a huge shortfall that was previously used to help those vulnerable and most in need across Rotherham."

Landlords too will find their costs go up. At the moment they get six months free of council tax between lettings of unfurnished property. But from April that will end.

Adrian Thompson, Director of the Guild of Residential Landlords rents many properties out in the North of England. He says rents will have to rise.

"I can see no choice in the matter, Returns are very low anyway. I can't see any choice."

And he says it does not help that councils are all making different decisions.

"Harrogate are giving one week instead of six months. But Sedgefield is three months. And Leeds 20 miles away is zero, not even a day. It's a nightmare. "

Communities Minister Baroness Hanham defended the changes. "Localisation will give local authorities the flexibility to design council tax support schemes for working age claimants in their area. Many are delivering savings using their local flexibilities and discretion"

金管會大執法金檢13家投信

2012-11-24T13:00:00.001+00:00

今天看到新聞金管會要金檢13家投信，對於違規的經理人「一定處分」。這種聲明實在讓人不解。經理人出問題，其他高階主管，特別是內部稽核和法務部門都不用負責，真是讓人稱奇。然後，明明兩年前就知道問題，現在才開始清查，還說要「一定處分」？這些經理人沒有觸犯「背信罪」的疑慮嗎？怎麼不移送檢調機關調查？
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金管會大執法金檢13家投信

【聯合報╱記者孫中英／台北報導】 2012.11.23 05:17 am

盈正案、友輝光電炒股疑案連環爆，金管會昨天表示，檢查局已鎖定十三家投信公司，即將啟動專案金檢，最快年底前提出報告。

金管會官員說，這波專案金檢範圍包括資金流向、買賣個股時點、經理人相關帳戶、交易監視系統等，除調閱相關交易資料、全面比對查核之外，並且指派檢查人員實地檢查，金檢時間預定一個月。

官員不願透露金檢投信名單，只表示，這十三家投信都曾接受委託為政府基金操盤；外界則點名安泰、凱基，德盛安聯、群益、永豐與聯邦等投信，可能都已被檢查局鎖定。

金融界人士說，「專案檢查」一般以銀行、金控為主，很少針對投信公司，這次專案金檢，凸顯金管會掃蕩炒股決心；不過盈正案發後，金管會先是下令卅八家投信經理人「自清」，現在又祭出專案金檢震撼彈，政府大執法，遏止投機炒作，也可能嚇跑資金，台股成交量恐更難回溫。
金管會昨天也說明盈正案的處理情形，證期局副局長王詠心說，投信經理人「全面自清」，查出四家投信的四名基金經理人交易異常，其中一人已放棄陳述機會，另三人違規金額不大，金管會目前複查中，也同步清查友輝光電炒股疑案。
至於在「自清」時閃辭的五名基金經理人，王詠心說，如查出這些經理人涉及違規，一定依法處分；市場也傳出五名經理人中有人涉及炒作友輝光電股票，王詠心說，全案調查中不便回應。
【2012/11/23 聯合報】@ http://udn.com/
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Sharing the burden: top houses v top people

2012-03-30T05:17:00.000+01:00

英國的「豪宅稅」

人可以搬走，但房子不行

英國打算針對價值在台幣一億以上的豪宅，課徵 1% 的豪宅稅，用來取代所得稅最高級距 50%，並維持所得稅最高級距在 40%

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Sharing the burden: top houses v top people

People can move. Houses, by and large cannot.

That's one good reason economists would give for removing the 50p tax rate on Britain's highest earners - and taxing its most expensive houses instead.

Another good argument would be that land is taxed relatively lightly in the UK, whereas labour income is taxed a lot.

That's the theory. The reality - economic and political - is, naturally, more complicated.

The Treasury reckons that it will take in £2.8bn more in income tax in the coming fiscal year with a 50p top rate, than if the ceiling were still at 40%.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies believes that could well be an over-estimate. In fact, it has suggested that it might not raise any money at all - because high earners will find ways to avoid it.

This is what the IFS's Mirrless Review of the UK tax system had to say on the matter: "There are numerous ways in which people might reduce their taxable incomes in response to higher tax rates; at some point, increasing tax rates starts to cost money instead of raising it.

"The question is, where is that point?

"Brewer, Saez, and Shephard (2010) addressed precisely this question for the highest-income 1%. Their central estimate is that the taxable income elasticity for this group is 0.46, which implies a revenue-maximizing tax rate on earned income of 56%.

"This in turn (accounting for NICs and indirect taxes) corresponds to an income tax rate of 40%. So, according to these estimates, the introduction of the 50% rate would actually reduce revenue."

'Big difference'

In opposition, both David Cameron and the Chancellor George Osborne suggested more or less the same thing.

It's safe to say that a mansion tax on houses worth more than £2m would raise more than nothing. Again, we move house, not the other way around. But how much more it would raise is a matter for lively debate.

At the time of the election, the Liberal Democrats reckoned that a 1% tax on the value of houses above £2m would raise about £1.7bn.

At the time, that struck many as on the high side.

Knight Frank, the estate agency, reckons there are about 45,000 homes in England and Wales worth more than £2m, more than 80% of them in London.

You might be surprised to hear that 40% of them are in Kensington and Chelsea alone. Then again, you might not be.

We don't know whether the average value of those 45,000 homes is a lot more than £2m, or not much more at all. That would make a big difference to overall take.

However, on the World at One on Tuesday, the IFS expert on this, Stuart Adam said £1.7bn was probably "in the right ballpark."

If the 50p rate ends up raising as much as the Treasury first thought, it's looks as though a mansion tax raising £1.5bn to £2bn would not fill the gap.

However, it might be enough to let the government cut the top rate from 50 to 45%.

Those same Treasury estimates suggest that change would only cost the chancellor about £1.1bn next year. If that's true, the Inland Revenue could even come out ahead.

That might sound attractive to George Osborne. But he would then be raising a large amount - from an even smaller number of households.

Raising even £1bn from 45,000 properties means an average extra tax bill, for each of those houses, every year, of more than £22,000.

Britain's top earners may not like paying the 50p rate. But there are a lot more of them - about 275,000, according to the Treasury. (Or at least, that's how many they hoped there would be, after the new top rate had been introduced.)

So, even when it comes to the very wealthiest taxpayers, Mr Osborne may need to decide how much he wants to share the pain.

He may also discover first hand why Britain had traditionally taxed residential property so much less than economists would like - seriously distorting our economy, in the process.

No-one likes chancellors who raise taxes. But British people seem to particularly dislike the chancellors who tax them where they live.

This blog post was first published on Tuesday 6 March 2012. Because of a technical problem, it had to be republished with a new timestamp.

Q&A: Mortgage lending rules

2012-01-02T14:32:00.003+00:00

FSA (英國的「金管會」)在一份關於改革房貸制度的研究文件中提到：「我們注意到，輕鬆可得的貸款對某些族群，例如首次購屋者，不盡然是好事。寬鬆供給的貸款是，藉由導致房價大幅上升，致使首次購屋者因無力承擔而退出市場的因素之一。」

我們台灣的金管會，什麼時候才能摸摸良心，告訴馬英九和吳敦義這個顯而易見、不容抹滅的事實？請他們停止用納稅人的錢，供應各種低利貸款？

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Q&A: Mortgage lending rules
By Ian Pollock
Personal finance reporter, BBC News

The chief City regulator, the Financial Services Authority (FSA), has moved a step closer towards tighter regulation of mortgage lending.

By the summer of 2013 it wants new rules to be in place to prevent a return of the reckless lending seen in the middle of the last decade.

This will involve much closer scrutiny of a borrower's ability to repay.

The riskiest loans, worth more than the current value of the property being bought, will be banned outright.

Lenders will have to assume in their calculations that interest rates are higher than they are now when decide how much to lend.

The FSA says: "We are concerned that, as money returns to the market, firms will come under increasing pressure to consider riskier lending and will focus more on market share than maintaining lending standards.

"We need to learn the lessons of the past and act to stop poor lending practices re-emerging in the future," the FSA adds.

Who will all this affect?

At the moment, very few people. Strict mortgage rationing, due to a lack of funds, has been in force since 2008 anyway. So home sales have been roughly halved since then. The slightest blemish on a credit score can see an application for a mortgage being turned down. So, the FSA estimates that just 2.5% of current new borrowers would be affected by the more stringent lending rules it is proposing. And, assuming they are not watered down in some way as a result of the continuing consultation, they will not come into effect until 2013 at the earliest.
So what is this all about then?

This is all about stopping a new boom in mortgage lending, and house prices, in the future if lenders start lending too much money to home buyers who cannot really afford to repay their loans. That is what happened in the middle years of the last decade. Were it not for the extraordinarily low level of interest rates we have been experiencing, the FSA fears that tens, or even hundreds, of thousands more borrowers would now be in arrears and facing repossession.

Even if the boom conditions seen a few years ago returned, the new approach laid down by the FSA would, on its estimate, restrict lending to about 11% of prospective borrowers.
Sounds like not much will change for most people?

Not quite. Firstly, the widespread use of so-called self-certified mortgages (known to some as liars' mortgages) are now ruled out. They accounted for a very high proportion of new lending a few years ago. People will no longer be able to claim - with no evidence - that their income is big enough to justify a mortgage loan when in reality it is not.

For other applicants, even if lenders find they have more money to lend, they will have to scrutinise the finances of their borrowers much more thoroughly, to show they really can afford to re-pay. And lenders will have to assume that interest rates are noticeably higher than they are today.

Will my mortgage deal be renewed?

If you took out a mortgage a few years ago on rather optimistic assumptions, your lenders will not be forced to dump you if, as a brand new borrower, you might not pass the new lending criteria.

Whether you get the same deal is another matter though. If the value of your home has fallen in the meantime, any new mortgage may be much more expensive than it was before.

Will my interest-only mortgage be affected?

Yes, if you want to renew it in its current form. A new part of the FSA's continuing consultation proposes telling lenders to assess the affordability of interest-only loans as if the borrower were taking out a more expensive repayment mortgage. So in the future, if you have an interest-only loan, and want to re-new it, you may have to show that your finances are sufficiently robust, or that you have other "credible" sources of cash to pay off the mortgage in due course.
I would like to buy my first home, but cannot obtain a mortgage.

Will this help me?

In the long run yes, because it may help suppress artificial house price booms that lock out first-time buyers. The FSA puts the matter very clearly in its consultation document:

"Easy mortgage credit availability is not necessarily a force for good for groups such as first-time buyers. The easy supply of credit was a factor which, by generating significant house price appreciation, contributed to the declining role of first-time buyers within the market, squeezed by affordability problems."

Double Entry Bookkeeping

2019 第三季 (Nov) 投資績效

2015 第三季 (Aug to Nov) 投資績效

2015 第二季 (May to Aug) 投資績效

2015 第一季 (Mar to May) 投資績效

解租屋亂象 陳節如提租賃專法

解租屋亂象 陳節如提租賃專法

民進黨籍立委陳節如（左2）等人21日在立法院召開記 者會，主張欲解決租屋亂象，應將出租3戶以上的房東 視為營業行為立即適用消保法，並訂住宅租賃專法。 中央社記者溫貴香攝 104年3月21日

2014 第四季 (Dec 2014 to Feb 2015) 及全年 (Mar 2014 to Feb 2015) 投資績效

Berkshire Hathaway: The Last Bargain

Worth reading. Comment later...

Berkshire Hathaway: The Last Bargain

Summary

Book Value:

Intrinsic Value:

Look-Through Earnings:

Conclusion:

2014 第三季 (Sep to Nov 2014) 投資績效

2014 第二季 (Jun to Aug 2014) 投資績效

Carrefour (相較於 VGK) 的股價變化

Stories of Carrefour CEOs

Estimate of return from Tesco

Coach's turnaround plan

Dave Lewis: a new star for planet Tesco

(Disclaimer: 以下分析及數據係依據看網路新聞的印象寫出來的...)

"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.", by Warren Buffett.

前任執行長 Philip Clarke的計畫是：

Dave Lewis: a new star for planet Tesco

The lessons from Carrefour for Tesco

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The lessons from Carrefour for Tesco

跨境查帳擬設限 F股罩烏雲

2014 第一季 (Mar 14 to May 14) 投資績效

2013 第四季(Dec 13 to Feb 14) 投資績效

巴菲特為什麼買IBM

2013 第三季 (Sep13 to Nov13) 的一些想法

遲了將近兩個月的 2013 第二季投資績效檢討

Empty home owners' council tax shock

Empty home owners' council tax shock

金管會大執法 金檢13家投信

Sharing the burden: top houses v top people

Q&A: Mortgage lending rules

解租屋亂象陳節如提租賃專法

解租屋亂象陳節如提租賃專法

民進黨籍立委陳節如（左2）等人21日在立法院召開記者會，主張欲解決租屋亂象，應將出租3戶以上的房東視為營業行為立即適用消保法，並訂住宅租賃專法。中央社記者溫貴香攝　104年3月21日

金管會大執法金檢13家投信