Pakistan Postman

Karzai - Obama Bilateral Security Agreement

2013-11-26T21:07:00.002+05:00

      Bilateral Security Agreement between US and Afghanistan Government is essential. To keep the stability and to carry out surgical strikes against any militia activities in Afghanistan, US wants 15000 troops to remain station in Afghanistan.
President Karzai no doubt is US most important and unpredictable ally. For smooth and peaceful withdrawal of US/ ISAF troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014
       Hamid Karzai has made the agreement so controversial and confusing, that at time it seemed non negotiable. At times he stated that criminal cases would be taken up against US troops involved in war crimes and at another point he asked for formal apology from US President. On his recommendation, The Jirga of 2500 Chieftains, politicians and tribal elders was convened. It was again a set back for him as he believed that his hand picked jirga members will follow his lead, but it went other way.
      But Karzai, in his final remarks to the four-day meeting, said "he would not sign it until after a presidential election due next April", The Express Tribune Nov 2013. This agree would bring peace to Afghanistan and it would facilitate smooth withdrawal of US troops; so it is win win situation for both nation.

Significance of Bilateral Security Agreement: What challenges Afghanistan is facing and what are the Benefits available for Afghan-US.

Peace and Stability in Afghanistan as Afghan National Army is not having requisite capacity against militant groups.
Smooth Pull out of ISAF/ US forces, which is essential for US as face saving measure. They have to bring 12 years war to some logical conclusion.
Presidential elections are expected in April 2014 in Afghanistan, conduct of these elections in conducive environment is essential to strengthen diplomacy in Afghanistan.

Fazl Ullah the New TTP leader - Best Choice

2013-11-09T01:54:00.001+05:00

Fazl Ullah

After Bait ullah and Hakim Ullah now it is Fazl Ullah's turn to head TTP. Famous as butcher of swat, mullah radio and got international recognition from Malala incidence. Fazl ullah is an excellent choice for those interested to sabotage " Pakistan and TTP peace talk". He has publicly announced that TTP will never dialogue with Pakistan Government,as per his believe Pakistani Government is US slave. In a sense, this good for every other person who still having some doubt that TTP are interested in implementing Sharia. Fazl Ullah had already got a chance of implementing (His own ) Sharia. TTP have proved themselves as Muslims by birth with no Islamic understanding. Fazl Ullah escaped from Pakistan after Army action and now hiding in Afghanistan; Us drones can hit well guarded and fully informed Hakim Ullah with notorious timings; but US radars were unable to detect Fazl Ullah for so many years. US drone are believed to be fitted with US interest Seeker sensors.
STATUS OF SOUTH ASIA
        Approximately, six months are left for wdr of major NATO forces from Afghanistan. Dialogue process between Afghan Taliban and Afghan Government bared no fruit. US drones staying in the region, creating more deli ma for Pakistan. Fazl Ullah, new head of TTP is golden caping in whole process of PEACE.
        "Peace Process OR Dialogues" with TTP seems to be out of question, as TTP already had lose control over other factions. Is I have already stated that, Hakim Ullah was never interested in dialogues with Pakistan Government, I only wanted to gain time. Either TTP is re organized again and well funded by Indians or US; OR may be Fazl Ullah wanted to gain control over TTP ( he is non Mehsud - as bulk of Taliban support is from Mehsuds). TTP is not in strength, by the blessing of Al mighty no reports about any major blasts in Pakistan has been reported yet.
        But, Dialogue was a good option placed in front of Talibans, this may create some splinter cells and unity TTP could easily be gauged. Rewarding and with effective rehabilitation of these groups, Pakistan Army would be required to engage less targets with minimum time.

US drone killed Hakimullah Mehsud; Sabotage Peace Talks

2013-11-03T03:08:00.000+05:00

Hakim Ullah Mehsud

Legal standing of US drones strikes in Waziristan agency (Pakistan) is a big question widely discussed in international forums. Now, same strikes have made US standing in establishing peace in this region dubious. Killing of Hakimullah Mehsud, through drone strike was apparently a serious attempt to derail peace process initiated by Pakistan Government. Series of other event like capturing of Latif Mehsud ( second in hierarchy) by US forces are his was not killing of one individual rather it was killing of peace process. During visit of secretary of state, Karry Lugger Government of Pakistan informed him that any drone strike in Pakistan would seriously effect Pakistan's efforts to bring stability in Pakistan-Afghanistan region. Starting of dialogue process had created ripples in loosely organized factions of TTP. Punjabi Taliban commander, Asmaatullah Mauvai was ready for unconditional talks with Government going totally against Hakumullah Mehsud. A few weeks ago, Mohmmad agency TTP commander warned Hakimullah that any negotiations with Government would force him to delink from TTP. Dialogues created split between insurgent groups, but there are spoilers who have there hidden interests; trying to derail peace process. US exit plan from Afghanistan in early time frame was conflicting with Pakistan - TTP peace process. Terrorist groups having peace with Pakistan were believed to be concentrating more towards Afghanistan, thereby, effecting smooth withdrawal of US forces. Pakistani nation have sacrificed more than 50000 lives due to terrorism is still labeled as supporting terrorist groups. Question arise in every mind, why Hakimullah was not targeted in past few months, once comprehensive intelligence was shared by Pakistan Government about his presence in Afghanistan, again stated by Ch Nisar during his press conference.

Interior Minister- Ch Nisar

fostering this conspiracy theory. Pakistan foreign minister Ch Nisar during his press conference clearly stated that, t
AFTERMATHS:

TTP will announce new leadership, dialogue process would delayed for some time.
TTP will respond in terrorist act on limited or bigger scale (depending upon there strength).
Government will to resort to military action in tribal belt, to control the fall out of this event.
TTP will further break up in smaller groups with less control by central leadership.
Chances of internal clashes between TTP factions for control of funds, which is held by central leadership.
Peace Talks with small groups would be successful, which may create a mutual trust environment

Afghanistan Intelligence Agencies creating unrest in Afghanistan

2013-10-16T03:25:00.001+05:00

Good step was taken by Pakistan Top Brass by having a combine meeting of Military and Civil Heads in relation to Pakistan National Security issues. Although, Terrorist attacks are in increase, Karachi unrest still exist and Talks with TTP are still not showing any way ahead. It was important to show to all foreign and non state actors that Government and military are on the same page, once dealing with miscreant.

During this meet, various matters of military nature were discussed like posting and promotions of Top military brass, issue was Afghanistan intelligence agency ; KHAD (Khadamat-e Aetla'at-e Dawlati) was also discussed;

Afghan intelligence agency is involved in Baluchistan unrest

This is no more a hidden fact that KHAD his its involvement in terrorist activities in Pakistan; This fact placed Hamid Karzai in very dubious situation. Either he is having no control on his government institutions even after having two terms in president office OR may be his Foreign policy towards Pakistan is based upon unfriendly relations. In both the cases, his statement that NATO forces are responsible for instability in Afghanistan ( As these forces carried out operations in Afghan villages instead of attacking Pakistan Tribal areas) has become questionable.

What Mr Karazai Wants??

As a President he should have futuristic plan for his country; creating hatred in region will move back Afghanistan to decade back !!!! Indian Intelligence Agencies heads visit to Afghanistan and involvement of India and Afghanistan in unrest in Pakistan is not a matter of surprise .

Afghanistan should be thankful to Pakistan in helping them to start negotiations with Afghan Taliban s

Hakim ullah Mehsud ... Is he Serious in talks with Government

2013-10-12T21:57:00.001+05:00

After the deceased Baitullah Mehsud, Hakimullah Mehsud took over the command of TTP in 2009. His Niab amir deceased in May 2013( New Niab Amir Latif Mehsud is also believed to be in US custody). Government is trying its utmost to start peace talks with TTP, but effort are apparently not showing any results. Different regional experts believed that these talks would not be fruitful, however, some are of the believe that Peace Talks' are essential before the start of any military action in future. But what is the stance of TTP ( that seems to be the big question).

TPP Demands. TTP have not come up with any clear cut demands with Government, Although they had placed few wage demands details are as under.

Government should stop all military actions.
Drone attacks should stop.

Latif Mehsud
Release of all TTP militants from Pakistan Jail.
Stop cooperation with US in Anti terrorist operations.

Although, some of the demands are beyond the scope of Pakistan Government; However, release of militants/ stopping of military action in tribal belts are few action which are under the control of present Government ( But with many major repercussions).

Latest interview of Hakimullah Mehsud with BBC. Hakim Ullah Mehsud brought new facts on the table;

He commented that Pakistan Government has not contacted him for any peace talks. He was reluctance to place his demands through media.
While asked about reasons for failure of previous peace deals; he blame Pakistan Government for not keeping their part of deal.
TTP will take actions against US and westerner and Pakistan Army because they are works in line with western interests.
Even with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan;he still believe that they want to make Pakistan as an Islamic state.

Analysis of Hakimullah intyerview to BBC. Hakimullah has discussed various points without providing details of clear cut agenda for future peace talks; however, we have to keep this in mind that TTP leader ship is having lose control over 30 factions of TTP.

He showed that TTP wants to gain time to reorganize and establish its control.
Wants to establish strong links with Afghan Taliban, and play some important role in ISAF exit scenario.
Series of terrorist attacks in Pakistan give clear evidence that TTP is non serious in any kind of peace talks OR they have no control over other splinter groups.

ACTIONS RECOMMENDED FOR PAKISTAN GOVERNMENT

"First, Establish the WRIT of Government"

"Secondly, Force TTP to Finish Armed Wing and show its presence As Political Party"

"Thirdly, Constitution of Pakistan should be implemented in Tribal Areas"

"Last but not the least, Bring Educational, Economical, Political and Social reforms"

Karzai Blames NATO forces for unstability in Afghanistan

2013-10-08T02:01:00.001+05:00

Timing for ISAF exit from Afghanistan is closing up, blame game has been started !!!

Hamid Karzai during an interview to BBC (Newsnight) has criticized NATO forces that they were unableto bring peace in Afghanistan after a decade of war. In addition to this he further expressed that, NATO forces had brought more miseres to Afghan people as compared to remove the terrorist from his country.

Karazai such comments are of importance under such circumstances where there are only six months are left for western forces to leave Afghanistan and he himself is about to finish his two tenure as President. His efforts to bring Taliban on peace talks have been increased manifold in last few month, where he asked from Pakistan to free few important Taliban leaders to facilitate the talks. Although, any efforts don't seems to bring any fruit. May be Taliban understands the dynamics of this region better than western and Mrs Karazai himself.

Fingers pointed towards Pakistan....
Once again Mr. Karazai has pointed ot towards Pakistan. He said that Western forces remained focused eliminating Terrorist sanctuaries from Afghan Villages, but main sanctuaries of Taliban were existing in Pakistan..... May be he just forgot to mention Terrorist sanctuaries existing in Nuristan and other Provinces where Pakistan authorities have already pointed out to him ....

HIDING THE FAILURE !!!!
Fact is vivid and clear, although failure in policy exist on part of Western forces and at the same time Mr Karazai made big mistakes himself by rejecting the existing of AFGHAN TALIBAN.... Now he believes that Taliban are Afghans and they can be part of Afghan Government, but he was unable to visualize this for last one decade himself

Aligning Afghanistan with India has not been fruitful for eliminating extremism in his country,rather it was a major cause that increased the role of non state actors.
Following the foot steps of Western powers ( no talks with terrorist) was not a good policy, he should have realize that, Pashtun are major ethnic entity in Afghan society and they have backing/ liking for Taliban
Afghanistan may have weak government, but still she has to stop " Looking outward policy" to solve their domestic issues.
Atone place he is asking help from Pakistan to start peace talks with Afghan Taliban, but at the same time he is blaming Pakistan having Taliban presence in their homeland. this dual policy will not bear fruits.
He should admit that Terrorist sanctuaries exist in Afghanistan, which are causing problems in Pakistan. This problem is related to both countries and once western forces leave this region ; Pakistan and Afghanistan would be left with to solve this issue.So, it is come problem have to be solved in collective manner.

Increasing Prices, no tax relief and Devaluing Rupee

2013-10-03T07:31:00.001+05:00

Rs 4 to 5 / litre increase

Monthly periodic increase in electricity and fuel prices was a common feature, but government has taken lead over all previous records by increasing the petrol prices upto Rs 4 and diesel prices up by Rs 5. In addition to this Pakistani middle class consuming 200 to 300 units of electricity would be expecting 40 to 80 percent increase in their electricity bills.

Government may have their reasons; they will throw all the blame on IMF conditions or devalution of rupee in market or increasing prices of Oil in international market; but the fact remain the same government has failed to provide relief to common man.

No check has been placed against power theft, line losses and Government has not shown any interest in using cheap fuels to produce electricity. Government has again failed to increase the tax net

What is the situation:

1. Electricity consumers paying their bills honestly have to pay for the power theft/ line losses.
2. Middle Class paying tax has to cater for complete Government revenues circle. As agriculture sector was not included in tax networks, which is long history of Pakistan.
3. Extra government revenues are generated by increasing the prices of petrol and diesel; and their is no doubt that this would be having direct impact on daily prices of transportation and day to day use goods.
4. Government is borrowing money from IMF to pay old debts and these are non productive borrowing ( having interest rate attach to them)

Economical graph of the country is going down; at one end we are suffering from energy crisis, other way it is terrorist and now it is exponential price hike of necessary comodities.

TTP wants to gain time till ISAF exit

2013-10-03T02:09:00.002+05:00

These are million dollar questions...... What is Pakistan National Security Policy? How to handle militants groups.... Go for political OR military solution? Latest news that government wants to have peaceful negotiation with these militant.They are categorize as Tehrik-e- Taliban Pakistan to distinguish them from Afghan Taliban, but who are TTP? They are not a potent force rather they can be believe as disorganize bodies of militant groups. As per expert opinion there are 64 factions of TTP, most of them are not even affiliated with Hakimullah Mehsud. Hakimullah Mehsud having no control on these groups, main example can be delineating from Jundul Hafsa responsible for Peshawar Church attack.

Negotiation process was started by PML - N Government, with meeting / conference of All political parties. Few prisoners were freed on request of Afghan President for cross border talks with Afghan Taliban, and freeing TTP leaders from Pakistani Jails was also in process. As all the underhand deals and thrust building measures were in process; all of sudden Lower Dir incident took place where one senior officer of Pakistan Army embraced shahadit.

What should be the Negotiation terms with TTP

Army stance: For better understanding we should analyze the capability and will of Pakistan Army. Can Pakistan Army carry out operations in FATA. Answer is yes and example is notorious Tera Valley Operation. Army wants to have national will, which can only be possible through political process.

Political parties stance: PML- N is again sitting in the corridors of power with full majority but unable to make decision, Parliament is in itself APC (All Party Conference), why they need consensus to eliminate national threats; they are looking grab the opportunity with political process. How can we negotiate with TTP leader who is having no control on every faction of militants operating in this region.

MILITARY ACTION IS REQUIRED TO SOFTEN UP THE Militants

Political Wing of TTP. don't have political wing to negotiate with government, either they should be forced to create political wing to legitimize their existence OR there should be any negotiation with terrorists. Time is rip. NATO/ US and other European forces are pressurizing the foreign agencies to stop their activities to stabilize Afghan region for smooth exit of ISAF forces. Pakistan Government should grasp this opportunity and don't waste time in fruitless negotiations. TTP is trying to gain time by forwarding stupid demands like " Pakistan Government to stop US drone attacks"

POLITICAL WILL AND FULL SUPPORT TO PAKISTAN ARMY CAN ELIMINATE TERRORISTS FROM PAKISTAN

Militants OR No Militants

2013-10-01T00:58:00.000+05:00

Militants attacked and target killed more than hundred in small town of Northern Nairobi, Boko Haram accepted the claim. More than sixty were made hostage in Westgate mall in Kenya and latter on many were killed Al Shabab warned the world and Kenya to stay out of Somalia. Again Boko Haram has shown its presence by killing dozens of students. Blasts in Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan and ma

ny other Muslim countries have the same fate. Muslims are so eager to kill Muslims to create Islamic state. Driving non Muslims away from Islam, those who believed in Islam as an peaceful religion are afraid of us and consider Islam as a synonym to terrorism. Fanaticism, extremists or terrorist what all name we want to share for them can not serve the purpose. Who are they !!!! they are our own creation; at some point in time our wrong decision ,manipulated, decisions and crooked decisions have created or facilitated in creating them. We can not over look them, if not part of our system; even then they are shadow of our corruption. Isolating Mullahs, Qarri and Madrassa students by ignoring them,, we are creating hate in society. These fanatics and extremists are nothing more then than birth of this hatred. Isolation is not a cure and acceptance is not that easy. Our pain and suffering is a fact, but they are passing through a period of humiliation and suffering. They need knowledge, wisdom and acceptance. Government, society and individuals have to make them part of this society; then it would be possible that they would save this society. We are privileged ; we live free. for them its not option. freedom of thoughts and action is not common for them, they cannot choose there friends and enemies. It is only the will and wish of those actors who are having command of their minds. Lets not share hatred for those innocent mind and body who is poisoned by wicked minds: Just pray for them and help them

Somalia's AL SHABAB and Kenya Mall Attack

2013-09-23T21:15:00.001+05:00

Somalia's Al Shabab group carried out fierce attack on Kenya Shopping mall, and reportedly more than 68 individuals are killed in this attack. Al Shabab is linked with Al- Qaeda and his present leader Ahmed Abdi Godane

Ahmed Abdi Godane

joined Al Qaeda (present leader Aymen Al Zahrawi) in 2012. Organization is banned as terrorist group in US and UK. Al Shabab was established in 2006, since then it gained moment however, organization was contained in Somalia and now having potent authority in southern and few central regions of Somalia.
Somalia Con by Al Shabab
Somalia is facing civil war situation for last 20 years and divided between Somaliland, Puntland, Pro Government (Ethopia controlled) area, Government ( African Union controlled) area. Somalia capital ( Moghdishu) was liberated from militants in 2011. Kenyan forces entered the conflict zone in 2011 and gave major push to Al Shabab militants from south. Militants are restricted to Guerrilla warfare as US backed Ethiopian Army and African Union countries are having alliance to curtail this threat.

Courtesy: BBC News

Way of Government
Group is inspired by Saudi Wahhabi form of Islam, practicing strict Sharia Law and it is important to note that most of Somalians are Sufis.

Interest of various countries and VNSAs

Eritrea: Many believe that Al Shabab is getting monetary, military and political support from Eritrea. Eritrea is having no ideological linkages with Al Shabab group, rather they are using their influence to curtail Ethiopia ingress in Somalia which is in her interest.

Ethiopia: Major concerns can be:

Access to horn of Africa (being a land lock country).

Population is divided in Christians and Muslims, uprising of Muslim extremist group in Somalia may have strategic repercussions.

Kenya:

Kenya claims that Al Shabab is responsible for terrorist attacks and kidnapping of soldiers/ tourists.

Any other aspect could be an access to rich oil unexplored reserves under sea.

Al Qaeda:

To extend its base of operation.

As foothold in Afghanistan and Pakistan are threatened, finding new front to continue their struggle.

Wahhabi believes of Al Shabab, strengthen Al Qaeda ideology.

Somalian Population:

Don't support Al Shabab, having different believes.

Somalia militia formed/ armed by Kenya and Ethiopia are fighting against militant groups.

Hatred against Kenyan and Ethiopians may force them to join militants; if national card played by Al Shabab wisely.

Boko Haram and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: these groups are having some linkages with Al Shabab.

Present Terrorism Activities: An armed attack in a Nairobi shopping mall. The insurgent group asserts that its militants shot around 100 people in retaliation for the deployment of Kenyan troops in Somalia.

ANALYSIS

Somalian Oil reserves ( more than 10 billion barrel),and geo strategic location is a major concern for most of regional powers.
Disturb / non government period of 20 years has created a vacuum which facilitated the creation of splinter groups to flourish.
Locals are against militant groups, may be due to religious belief and self impose Sharia.
Eritrea has been supporting Al Shabab for the last four years, moreover Al Shabab has joined hands with Al Qaeda, therefore trained manpower and funds are available to them in sufficient quantities.
Although, Al Shabab is under pressure due to major actions carried out by AU mission; even then they are able to show their strength by conducting major terrorist activities in Kenya.
Allied forces should finish operation in minimum time otherwise, militant groups can gain local support by using nationalist card effectively and they are having history of using it in past.
May be AU, Ethiopia and Kenya have reduced the area of influence of Al Shabab, but their capacity to strike outside Somalia still exist.

END STATE

Horn of Africa is an important Sea route, this fact can be a reason for prosperity and economical stability of the region; but they same have turned into bone of contention between so many regional power. If the intentions of Kenya, Ethiopia, Cambodia, US and African Union are clear then this operation of eliminating Al Shabab from Somalia should finish in early time frame. Poverty, uncertainty, weak writ of Government and illiteracy are general causes that facilitate terrorism and create breeding grounds for terrorist organizations. Basic need of Somalian people should be fulfilled for regional and global peace.

Pakistan Government facilitating Afghan - taliban Peace process

2013-09-10T00:19:00.000+05:00

          Against the wrong notion propagated by various analyst and TV anchors, that Pakistan is having own designs to fill in the vacuum created by withdrawal of NATO forces in year 2014, release of seven more Taliban militants by Pakistan Government has proved otherwise. President Hamid Karazi visited Pakistan in Aug 13 ( However, he was among those believing and propagating that Pakistan is disrupting Afghan Peace Process) , to request Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to facilitates kick start Afghan - Taliban Talks.

Back ground: Pakistan has released 26 militants to facilitate same talk, however Afghanistan Government along with its westerns facilitators were unable to reach a break through. Most important figure is Abdul Ghani Bradar , who is considered as No 2 to Maulvi Omer ( Head of Afghan Taliban).

Present Situation:   Pakistan Government has released0 7 militants including few medium level Taliban. Pakistan has not released the main figure as demanded by Afghan Government. Afghan Government has to show some responsibility to develop trust with TALIBAN, as they believe that Karzai government is puppet to US.Taliban believe is based upon some ground facts, involvement of India, Iran and other non regional forces have major impact of Afghan internal and external policies. Afghanistan had already wasted there peace process by labeling "good" and "Bad" Taliban. Still with the presence of more than 50,000 Nato troops Taliban are active in Afghanistan.

                                                    Better Way Forward for PAKISTAN....
(1)   Pakistan foreign policy is tilted more towards economical revival of this country, Afghanistan is a doorway for further access to CAR nations.

(2) Peace and stability in Afghanistan would encourage other regional states to use Pakistan as trade corridor.

(3) In last 10 to 20 years Pakistan has realized that peace in Pakistan is directly related to peace in Afghanistan.

(4) Future world is believed to be battle place for economical giants not about military mights., in this equation size doesn't matter. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2013-09-09T18:46:00.001+05:00

National Defence and development
By: Samson Simon Sharaf

Please Visit the following link for the detailed news:
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/columns/07-Sep-2013/national-defence-and-development

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China Pakistan Friendship, long history seeking for new future

2013-07-26T23:48:00.000+05:00

Introduction.
1. Keeping in mind more than fifty years of Pakistan China relation, most of Pakistanis are still living in perception 1960s China generation. Mind mapping of China, still appears blur images of cheap labor and low quality goods, weak communication infrastructure and steam engine trains; most importantly a country seeking outlet for international market. However, China had been drastically changed itself since 1979, once China was open to international market, although Geo-startegical importance of Pakistan still exist in the region, but international relations are not govern by mutual friendships rather countries are more inclined towards mutual interests. China is a growing economy, at present China India trade volume is US $ 60 billion (expected to be increased to US $ 100 billion in coming years). Pakistan is economical partner with China with only US $ 12 billion in mutual trade.

2. Chinese economy is gaining growth exponentially, she is internationally competing with US. Under these circumstances, resent developments in South Asian Region have direct or indirect impact on Chinese economy. Keeping this aspect in mind, Pakistan has to re- evaluate its role in South Asia visualizing the future of Pakistan China relations.

3. Scope of this Paper. To analyze major problems in South Asia related to China in conjunction with Pakistan role and recommend viable measure to improve Pakistan China relation in future.

Areas of Interest for China

4. Gwadar Port.China has heavily invested in developement of Gwadar port. development of Gwadar port of speedy grounds is not only having direct implications on Pakistan, but at same time China is also major beneficiary. Gwadar provides an alternative route and short route to China.

5. Trade Energy corridor. China is energy hungry to feed its fast flourishing economy. Gulf countries are fulfilling the energy needs, to bypass strait of Malacca and squeeze the shipping distances Pakistan can provide an energy corridor.

6. Stable Afganistan. Stability in Afghanistan, specially in the back drop of 2014 ISAF withdrawal is questionable. Pakistan is internationally considered as the major player to bring stability in Afghanistan. Unstable Afghanistan is not in interest of China. China is already investing heavily in Afghanistan. In addition to economical factor, resent clashes in Eastern provinces of China has proven links of Afghanistan based extremist groups which is problematic for China.

7. Taliban Factor. It is condered that Pakistan is backing Taliban based government in Afghanistan, which is not acceptable to international community unless Taliban-ization is linked with terrorism.

Recommendations

8. Issue of Baluchistan has to resolved at priority, problems of locals have to addressed in a manner to bring peace in Baluchistan. Unstable Baluchistan will hamper development of gwadar port and tapping full potentials of Gwadar prt would remain questionable.

9. Pakistan has to develop Trade energy corridor till China in first phase and later on same can be extended towards Central Asian Region. Development of Highways, railway link and pipelines are essential.

10. Afghanistan problem has to resolved as per the aspirations of Afghan people. Pakistan may utilize its influence to stabilize the region as some as possible.

11. China can no longer provide cheap labor to world, now is the right time to attract Chinese market to establish in Pakistan. This opportunity has to rested at the earliest.

Conclusions. In international relations there are no mutual friends or enemies, there are only common interest. Economical interest is the major bonding factor between two nations. Pakistan Geo- strategic position in the region can not benefit Pakistan for longer period, till the time economical, industrial and market designs are not filled between Pakistan- China.

CIVIL – MILITARY RELATION IN PAKISTAN

2013-05-10T03:19:00.000+05:00

Introduction.

· Healthy civil military relations contribute alot to enhance the efficiency of a nation. In open societies civil establishment and military institutes work in hand and gloves with political government; where political government is having the final control on national decisions. Although, in developed democracies incidences of military over step their powers is common. In 1986 Indian Army Chief planned to convert Army exercise into operation on Pakistan without the knowledge of Indian prime minister, moreover, removal of ISAF command Gen McChrystal from Afghanistan on the pretext that his conduct could undermine civilian control over military are few examples from present time. Civil military relation is sharing a balance between both the institutions with in their limits without derailing the political process.

· Pakistan since its creation has witnessed very dominating military relations with civil government, where the military take overs were common. Political scholars believe that, major causes of military interventions are political and such interventions are primarily due to weakness in political setup rather than desires of military institutions. So far there has been four military coups in Pakistan; starting from Gen Ayub Khan and last one by Gen Musharraf. Derailing of legitimately elected political government cannot be beneficial for Pakistan, it is important to analyze factors which are contributing in military takeover in Pakistan.

Conceptual boundaries. Analyze the reasons for civil military imbalance in Pakistan and review present power sharing between civil and military institutions. In the end recommend viable measures to eradicate causes of this imbalance.

Scope.

· Weakness in Political System
· Civil Military relation after 2008 elections.
· Recommendations

Analysis of weaknesses in Political system. As it is widely believed by political experts that military interventions and takeover are mainly caused due to weaknesses in political system and not because of the social characteristics of military institutions. Therefore following are few weaknesses which have become glaring in the past.

· Lack of political leadership. Quaid-e- Azam died very shortly after the creation of Pakistan, after him Liquat Ali Khan took of the leadership of Pakistan, but after he was shot they was no other prominent political in the screen of Pakistani politics. Pakistan resorted upon Bureaucrats and military generals. Moreover, due to frequent military coups political environment was not created in the country to flourish new leadership.

· Nonexistence of Political parties. Pakistan Muslim League, which played pivotal role in creation of Pakistan, was deficient of politicians as most of them preferred to stay in Union of India. Feudalists, industrialist and bureaucrats were remained as the only option. These newly generated/ created politicians were unable to inject political / ethical and administrative norms in Pakistan politics. Once they were in assemblies, were unable to for see the power vacuum they were creating due to internal rifts.

· Frail institutions. After partition, whatever share Pakistan received from armed forces, bureaucracy, judiciary and other elements was already in bits and pieces. Pakistan was also lacking secretariat, courts, parliament and other set ups which are important for functioning of government were not fully established. Pakistan had to start from scratch and thereby institutional discipline, norms and cohesion had to be developed. One such case was refusal of Army Chief to send troops to Kashmir to stop Indian aggression as ordered by then Governor General Quaid-e-Azam.

· Dependency of Civil over Military. Being deprived of all other institutions, Pakistan Government had to resort on its military components for all civil matter, either it was related to security of people coming from India or helping people of Pakistan against natural calamities. In one way or another, Civil Government handicap towards army become more obvious with every coming day.

Civil Military relations after 2008 elections. Political and social picture of Pakistan would remain incomplete without taking in to account the military dominance and its role. Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has supported civil government and his actions speak better than words. However, it is obvious that this state institution is having the capacity, experience and power to overshadow any democratic government. So what are the factors, which are stopping present military setup? Major factors are explained in detail as under:-

· Restoring Military Image. After 2007, Army was more concerned to improve its image in general public. A direct military action was out of question, even though loud and vivid political signals were available.

· Large Scale proliferation of political activities. Since 2007, social and political activities were at large, restoration of Chief Justice of Supreme Court, probing of Benazir Murder Case was in high tone, and more or less political activities were accelerating in high pace. This all created a difficult situation for military or bureaucracy to show direct involved in Government affairs.

· Civil military hand shake for War Against Terrorism. Pakistan Army was actively involved in War against terrorism, and nation consensus was essential to provide national power to military efforts, moreover civil government was also in need to continue these operations. So keeping a civil military equilibrium was a Win-Win situation.

Supreme Court of Pakistan

· Complex dynamics of military Coup. Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani remained firm and provided constitutional and democratic support to government despite “memo gate scandal” . Public mood was not in favor of any military intervention, free media and complex national/ international crisis doesn’t advocate such a venture.

· Hyperactive Judiciary. Above all, any adventure would turn into misadventure, as it was clear that it would not be supported or promoted by judiciary. Hyper active stance of Chief Justice and suffering from last coup were not diminished from his memories.

Recommendations. It is well established fact Pakistan cannot sustain derailing of any democratic government. Few recommendations to ward off this threat in future are as under:-

· Overlapping decades of dictatorship and elected government had already crippled the political parties. Military interventions can be reduced by addressing the international/ national security concerns of Armed Forces and viable solutions should be worked out mutually.

· Political parties should follow party code of conduct, where discipline of party members should be scrutinized strictly. Ethnicity, nepotism and religious extremism are required to be flushed out of politics. Strong political parties can provide strong leaders and thereby providing masses a fair choice.

· National intuitions of security, intelligence, law and order agencies should be strengthen to such a level that calling Armed forces in aid of civil power could be minimize.

· Military component is the force to implement political Will. Therefore military operations and national policy should complement each other.

· Positive dynamic social and political activities without disturbing the states affairs has direct bearing in strengthening the democratic process, which is in itself a strong deterrence to avoid any future military intervention.

· Free responsible media, strong un biased judiciary and nonpolitical bureaucracy would be essential in keeping the balance in favor of democratic government.

Conclusion. If the intentions are fair and objective is clear, no doubt Pakistan would maintain a positive civil military balance, however, process will take its course. In a healthy free society every institution has its role and cannot be hijacked by other institutions in spite it may seem the necessity of the time.

ISAF widrawal from Afghanistan and implications on Pakistan

2013-04-26T00:30:00.001+05:00

Introduction.

Since decades Afghanistan is in a state of turmoil in one way or another; at time in the name of " Great Game" foreign nations played their political moves and then in 80's people of Afghanistan were stuck between " Capitalist and Communist". In 1989, after the withdrawal of Soviet forces, Afghanistan had seen a period of peace, however, in 1994 Taliban started to rises. They came in power and except for small chunk of land in northern Afghanistan, major part was under their control. Taliban leader Mullah Omer was in a process to receive International recognition, once 9/ 11 shock the world. Taliban welcomed " Osama Bin Laden" in Afghanistan and provided sanctuary.

US launched Operation Enduring Freedom and toppled Taliban Government in Afghanistan. International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) led by NATO were employed in Afghanistan and US is contributing major portion of military troops. It is more than a decade that US along with his allies had started Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). At present, Osama Bin Laden and many high ranking members of Al-Qaeda have been killed, Al Qaeda has been dis organize and only small packets of resistance is left; but above all US as well as its allies are exhausted ( economically, militarily and politically). General public and tax payers of these countries are forcing them for withdrawal. US is at a great pressure from its allies and from within its own country to pull out from Afghanistan.

The nightmare of hasty pull out from proxy war of 1989 in Afghanistan, the fall out and instability caused by the sudden disengagement still haunts the world in general and US particularly. Withdrawal of ISAF by the end of 2014 has been planned and stabilization of Afghanistan before 2014 is very crucial for South and Central Asian region. Apart from US various other countries like Pakistan, China, India and Iran are having their vested interests and concerns related to vacuum created by withdrawal of ISAF troops in 2014.

Area of Emphasis. Systematically and analytically assessing the ISAF withdrawal plan and interests of regional power in Afghanistan with implication on Pakistan's concern in the South and Central Asian region.

Sequence.

Important Conferences and meetings
US Strategic Objectives
China Interests in Stabilization of Afghanistan
Indian and Iran Concerns
Implication on Pakistan
Recommendations

Important Conferences/ Meetings

International Conference on Afghanistan, Bonn (2001). After Operation Enduring Freedom, conference of Afghan leaders was held and Hamid Karazi was selected as leader for Afghan Interim Authority and later on he was elected as President in 2 004

International Conference on Afghanistan, The Hague (2009). Conference was held to discuss the future of Afghanistan. MAjor out come of the conference was , all participants agreed to strengthen Afghan Army, Police and Security services. Considerable amount of funds were allocated for equipping and training of Afghan forces.

International Conference on Afghanistan, London (2010). Main aim was to set timetable for Afghan forces to take over responsibilities of security and to lure in Taliban fighters with incentives.

International Conference on Afghanistan, Bonn (2011). Conference was focused upon the smooth transition of civil aspects by 2013, role of international forces after transition and prolonged stabilization of political process in Afghanistan.

January 2013 Obama- Karazi Meeting (Washington). Both the leaders mutually agreed that transition would be completed as per planned and US- SOF(Special operation Force) will remain in Afghanistan. Although, it was agreed that ISAF role would be supportive in nature,

US Strategic Objectives related to Afghanistan. As apparent from the beginning , US is having primarily two major objectives.

Elimination of bases inside Afghanistan and Pakistan to be used by terrorist organizations, such as Al-Qaeda and other groups which are in support ( Mullah Omer or Haqqani Group).
Realize the world that the war is against terrorism which is a global issue and not war against Afghan Government.
Stabilization of Afghanistan to bring economic prosperity in the region, which would gran teed long lasting peace. New " Silk Route" will connect South and Central Asia, Middle East and East Asia.

China's Interests in Stabilization of Afghanistan.

Although China has not contributed in ISAF even then China's interest in Afghanistan stability can not be undermined. China has invested heavily with billion's of US Dollar after the fall of Taliban Government. China economical interests are inter linked with economical development of its Western Provinces. As a growing economy, energy and raw material


China Western provinces

requirements are driving it towards Afghanistan.

There is an active plan for a quadrilateral freight rail road from Xinjiang in western China through Tajikistan and Afghanistan to Pakistan. This would extend their land connectivity to other power centres in Asia like Iran, and the greater Central Asian region. All these projects are to support China's western development plan and supplement its basic raw material requirement. Ultimately, China aims to develop Afghan gas and oil deposits.

2009 violent clashes in Western (Xinjiang) and Southern (Guangdong) provinces has convinced China that Stabilize CAR and Afghanistan would be in benefit.

Indian and Iran Concerns.

Afghanistan is having of long history of remaining a breeding ground for jihadi organization. These organizations no doubt remain vigilant to create problems inside mainland India and in Disputed Kashmir. India is a growing economy and number of mining contracts received by Chinese firm is a major concern for her. With an effective Afghanistan- India partnership, India can keep a constant pressure on its arch rival from eastern and western borders.

Due to unstability in Afghanistan, flow of millions of refugees in Iran creates economical/ security problems. Stability in Afghanistan can provide access to Central Asian Region Market. On the other side, Iran is also under the fear that after ISAF withdrawal in 2014, Taliban may gain power and their anti- Shiite activities are not suitable for its internal/ external policy.

Implication on Pakistan. Due to decades of instability in Afghanistan Pakistan has suffered from various social maniacs like

Drug trafficking.
Kalashnikov Culture.
Smuggling.
Human trafficking.
FATA has been " No Go Area" which had become safe heaven for criminals.

Being an economically weak country, Pakistan can not bear the burden of present Afghan refugees. In case of instabilty in Afghanistan after 2014, additional flow of refugees would be devastating.

On economical front, Pakistan needs a stable Afghanistan to have safe access to energy rich Central Asian Region. Being part of new Silk route Pakistan would be able to tap full potential of Gwadar Port.

Although, US ad China interts are not effecting Pakistan, however, Indian strategic alliance (including the training of security personals in Indian Academies) is serious issue which Islamabad sees with great concern. India has provided road access to Iranian Chahbarar Port(Iran) is taken to some extend as economical blow against Gwadar Port.

Recommendations for Pakistan.

Pakistan should develop a national consensus to accept Afghanistan its friendly neighbor.
Old Doctrine of "Afghanistan as Strategic Depth" should be overlooked and sovereignty of Afghanistan should be respected.
Pakistan should benefit from the Geo-strategic location of Afghanistan. Economical policies should be formulated to develope Pakistan, Afghanistan and CAR as economical regions.
Pakistan- Afghanistan are having tradition ties, people to people contact should be encouraged as Cofidence Building Measure.
Joint Border Monitoring Patrols should guard the porous border against drug and arms trafficking, smuggling and other criminal activities.
Tribal areas should be given provisional states and writ of Government should be established.

Conclusion. People of Pakistan and Afghanistan had already suffered alot due to foreign interventions, now it is time to eliminate the influence of " non state actors" once and for all. Time has changed and economical power has replace military muscles. This region has already witness so many conventional and proxy wars, that now Pakistan is having neither the thirst nor the appetite for another conflict. Stable Afghanistan is key for stability in Pakistan.

Qadri a sparking light or an hoax

2013-01-16T23:10:00.001+05:00

Thehrik e Minhaj al Quran (TMA ) spiritual leader Mulana Tahir Qadri , has no doubtly created alot of fame due to his million march ( so called not confirmed). All though, initially qadri had different demands but the moment he reached in front of Parliament, he changed his stance and demanded for removal of all consitutional Assembly and at the time demanded for few improvements in consitution.
After losing the initial support from MQM, PML (Q) and PTI, fate of this long march was questionable. Qadri dual nationality, TMQ being an unregistered political party are major questions in every bodies mind. Qadri seems to be yet an other non state actor, trying to create his place space in the vacuum created due to up coming elections. At some places he is seemed to repeat PTI demand with some new style and strenght.
With no reason Mulana wants to create unnecessary " ARAB SPRING " in Pakistan.....

Is it true... PTI ISI backed political party...

2012-12-27T18:05:00.001+05:00

1.Pakistanis are innocent and they can be easily deceived, especially at critical times of decision making , just like elections and referendums they are usually an easy target of conspiracy/ and false dogma. Elections are general the best time for non state/ state owned institutions to play with future/ emotions of these innocent peoples. 2. What some considers a break through/ revolution, is sometimes believed to be foreign funded intelligence agencies financed row. PTI, is one of the classic examples in this streak. Fast track hike/ popularity is sometimes believe to be an element of foreign long term conspiracy.
3. Beginning from the roots of educated middle class, consisting of majority of college youth is no doubt a example in its self where century old feudal/ heredity political system has been crumbling on its feet..... Alas some factions of our society are struggling to colour this SUNNAMI in false pretext.

Kabul - Taliban Episode

2012-04-18T03:33:00.000+05:00

Small group of insurgents, attacking Kabul Parliament , and foreign embassies remain intact for more than seventeen hours. Although, NATO troops came into action, elite Afghanistan force was in action. This proves one thing that Taliban's are assail force, who is capable of supporting and execution of multiple thrust raids with gunfire, explosives, rockets and suicide bombs withinthe heart of Afghanistan. They are having large logistic back up and accurate intelligence gathering means vis-a-vis dedicated and trained manpower to carry out such offenses.

Raid on Afghanistan Parliament

This attack is considered as one of the deadliest attack in the history of Afghanistan since 2001. Total deaths including suicidal bombers is 19. Many wounded and admitted are reported.
Ryan Crocker, US Ambassador to Afganistan believes that Taliban are neither having the will nor strength to commit such offensive action. He believes that Haqqani network is not only willing to do this and at the same time having political motives to proform such tasks.
EXPECTED REACTION: Ryan Crocker such statements are having very serious implications specially once we are talking about Haqqani networks, all the fingers will start pointing towards Pakistan. Moreover, once the start over of NATO supply discussion is still final stage, Sihalla Base incident is fresh and tensions between US and Pakistan are alll time high, such facts if proved true are not healthy signs in foreign relation.

Afgan Policeman securing Attacked Shopping Mall

What was that? Tornado or Water splash

2012-04-14T19:07:00.001+05:00

Imran Khan is the most prominent among-st newly emerging politicians in Pakistan. Although the time had past , but since his cricket career he was believed to be educated, disciplined and patriotic. After a graceful retirement from cricket he remained involved in charity / health projects in the country. He has earned a good name through out that era. Now that he had started his political career with Pakistan Tehreek-e-insaf, most of the educated, urbanized and non feudal population believed in him. Starting from great assembly of crowd in Lahore and then to different cities tour showed the liking he is having among the populace. That was the time once this Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI ) political movement gained a momentum ;

Although more contributing factors were;

Inability of Government to resolve problems
Unholy underhand alliance between government and opposition
Memo case scandal
Swiss case verdict and supreme court.

These were few among many circumstances, then people started to believe that there would be some major change in political scenario. PTI emerged as a striking force. Big crowed, adding up of big politicians and heavy media coverage were very much clear... At this moment once Mr. Zardai has stabilized the things once again, no media, no coverage and neither there is any tsunami in the way...... God knows well if this tsunami can create any ripples in Pakistan static feudal/business/religious political pond...... Still sitting finger crossed .

2012 Challenges to Pakistan

2012-01-01T04:12:00.000+05:00

New year 2012 has approached and legacies of 2011 would be standing in front of Pakistan Highway to progress as major challenges. What are the Legacies, which are hampering the road to progress :

Political, Ethnic and Religious Tolerance
Decades have passed but, Pakistanis are still lacking tolerance for each other political, ethnic and religious believes. political system is in the clutches of few feudal families, powerful business main who are busy in exploiting cult, clan and tribal system of politics. Our minds and hearts are still far far away from national issues, we are not knowing our problems as a nation. We are unable to conceive the impact of international affairs on our regional politics. Killing of Salman Taseer can be taken as an example to judge religious tolerance. Although all major political parties have started their election compains in one way or another, but how to curtail this kind of extremism in our society, is not including in there party manifest.

Educational reforms
With major chuck of our budget is spend directly or indirectly in foreign visits by bureaucrats and politicians. Ministers and important secretaries are having heavy security arrangements. Country is in swear shortage of energy, and still there is no hope for new resources of energy to be pulled in; what options we are left with for educational reforms. Basic education which should be free for every citizen of this country is still not available or it is so expensive and out of reach of common man. Unless the citizens of Pakistan are not educated they would always fall prey to old politicians, who are making them fool for last six decades.

Economical reforms
Pakistan is still in middle state to understand his position among agriculture or industrial country. Shortage of electricity in country clearly pull us out of industrial country, how ever, our extensive agricultural items import for 2011, prove us not qualifying for this slot at the same time.

Among these there are many issues and problems prevailing, which can not ruled out for there importance. Still we are sting with our fingers crossed, hopeful that 2012 would bring some new change.

Sovereignty and accountability of Pakistan

2011-05-14T21:08:00.000+05:00

The bad news is that “Operation Geronimo” of May 2, 2011, is the worst debacle for the Pakistani military establishment since the misadventure at Kargil in 1999. It has seriously shaken the confidence and belief of the nation in and for itself. The good news is that it may yet help tilt the civil-military imbalance towards an elected civilian parliament that is conscious of the urgent need to review and amend the “national security paradigm” that has been monopolized by the military since partition and is responsible for many of our problems. Consider.

The nation is awash with untenable and absurd conspiracy theories, mostly anti-American. This is a reflection of our impotence in the face of facts and our rage at being confronted with an unpalatable truth. Both the truth and the facts humiliate us by showing up our national and institutional weaknesses and compel us to manufacture delusional fictions to comfort ourselves. If Abbottabad was a “drama” enacted by the Americans for various reasons, if there was no Osama bin Laden in the compound, then we must also accept that the Pakistani military establishment was fully involved in the “drama”. It is the ISI that has told us, on the basis of the evidence of the three widows of OBL in its care, that OBL had lived in the compound for six years and was killed by the US Navy seals who stormed the compound last Monday – in which case we should ask for explanations and accountability at home from the military instead of fuming against the Americans as co-conspirators.

Much the same mass delusion and intellectual hypocrisy is attached to arguments about how America has “violated our sovereignty” in the OBL case. Of course, they have. But the drones “violate” it every week on the basis of secret rules of engagement agreed upon with the Americans many years ago by the Pakistani military high command that are still in play. The media knows this but doesn’t want to ask the military to explain it. Further, our sovereignty has truly been violated by the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda foreign intruders in safe havens in Waziristan. To add injury to insult, these terrorists have killed over 35,000 Pakistanis in the last five years. But no one is focused on the existential threat to Pakistan from them. Indeed, stupid arguments are given that once the Americans leave Afghanistan these terrorists will simply vanish, ignoring their proclaimed mission statement to overthrow the state and constitution of Pakistan. Note also that anti-American terrorists like Ramzi Yusuf, Aimal Kansi, Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, Umer Sheikh, and dozens of others conspired to harm America from the soil of Pakistan long before 9/11.

The fact also is that our “sovereignty” was sold to America when our civil-military bureaucracy entered into unequal military pacts with the US in the 1950s, when it offered Pakistan as a “front-line” state for America in its war against the USSR when the rest of the post-colonial world was cobbling an autonomous “non-aligned movement”, when it sold our sufi soul to various jihadi organisations sponsored (as the modern-day equivalents of “America’s founding fathers” as per President Ronald Reagan) and paid for by America in Afghanistan. The civil-military bureaucracy hoodwinked Pakistanis by flogging it as a sovereign sale to “friends, not masters”. In the latest post 9/11 era, the US has paid $18 billion to Pakistan for buying into its “sovereignty” under General Pervez Musharraf and it is no surprise that much of this money has gone to replenish the Pakistani military or to line the pockets of usurpers.

Meanwhile, the military has fashioned a national security doctrine to suit its manufacture of a national security state. This is based on a “palpable and continuing threat from India” to undo Pakistan. In its latest formulation, the threat is supposed to emanate from India’s “capacity” to harm Pakistan rather than its intentions to make peace, which is a recipe for an arms race and not an antidote to war. It is true that India’s Hindu ruling elites were initially averse to the idea of Pakistan and hostile to the new country. They were also unfair in denying Kashmir to Pakistan. But since the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Pakistan, the deterrent has worked to obliterate any existential threat to Pakistan from India. The 1999 Lahore summit between the civilian political leaders of both countries was a confirmation of this new reality. Unfortunately, however, the military has become so obsessed with the idea of itself as the sole protector and saviour of Pakistan, a corollary of which is its continuing demand for constantly rising “defense” budgets and monopoly in foreign policy making, that it is not ready to open up its national security doctrine for discussion, debate and re-evaluation in the light of new economic, political and regional realities. This, despite the fact of disastrous military policy making in 1965 (Operation Gibraltar, that provoked war with India), in 1971 (war with India that dismembered Pakistan), in 1984 (loss of Siachin), in the 1980s (warlike tensions with India over Pakistan’s support to the Khalistan movement), in the Afghan jihad (whose militant Islamism blowback has crippled

Pakistani culture and politics), in the 1990s Kashmir jihad (that has wiped out a generation of Kashmiris and created jihadi militias in Pakistan without yielding Kashmir), in the 1999 Kargil conflict (that led to a military defeat and the overthrow of a democratically elected government), and now gross incompetence or complicity in shielding OBL.

If 9/11 was a wake-up call for America, this may be a defining moment for Pakistan. At stake is not the uneasy US-Pak relationship which yields billions of dollars for renting a part of our sovereignty to America but the domestic civil-military imbalance that has deformed the nature of civil society and crippled the economy, and the war against the non-state actors and terrorists who have usurped our sovereignty and are threatening to propel us into a suicidal conflict with the US and India.

To be sure, Pakistan must retain robust military defense preparedness not only against an overarching and arrogant India but also against a potentially destablising Afghan state that is in the making (the US envisages a 250,000 strong Afghan army in a couple of years led by Tajik-Uzbek elements of the Northern Alliance that have traditionally been anti-Pakistan). But the way to protect ourselves is to build trust and peace and trade and interdependence with our neighbours like India and Afghanistan and Iran and allies like America and the EU instead of trying to weaken or leverage them by internal and external state and non-state provocations as we have done in the past. “Sovereignty” is not abstract or absolute. It is a realistic function of power. Power is also not absolute or abstract. It is relative to the demonstrated power of others, singly or in groups. Power is also related to economic autarky and prosperity. Finally power is related to the social contract between a people and its rulers via a consensus constitution in which elected civilian parliaments are supreme.

Some civilians in Pakistan are beginning to understand this logic and are demanding serious accountability of their elected and appointed leaders. Nawaz Sharif has taken a statesmanlike lead in this matter by asking for a judicial commission to probe the May 2 debacle and fix responsibility. He is right in saying that that there can be no confidence in the military holding itself accountable as proposed by the Prime Minister. But this accountability should not just be of some civil-military leaders who have been hoist by their own petard in current circumstances. Nor should it be a knee-jerk reaction to the bullying of the US. It should be a rigorous and sustained accountability of rigid self-serving institutional doctrines that have propelled Pakistan into an unsustainable arms race with India and are seeking to control Afghanistan, that want to leverage terrorist non-state actors against America. We must also right the delusional mass mindsets that ill-serve Pakistan’s economy and polity in this day and age.

Pakistan Politics Big Game

2011-04-28T17:26:00.000+05:00

Faces in Pakistan Politics

Political engineering is the name of the game. There is news of two parallel developments that will shape the nature of politics in the run-up to the next election and possibly after it. The first is a strategic decision by the PMLQ and PPP to join hands as coalition partners in Islamabad this month and electoral allies next year; the second is a strategic decision by the military to cobble an electoral alliance comprising Imran Khan’s PTI, the “Like-Minded” breakaway rump of the PML-Q, Gen Pervez Musharraf’s APML, JI, MQM and JUI. All this jockeying for power makes sense.

The PPP is sick to death of the constantly blackmailing tactics of the MQM and JUI. They’re in and out of the coalition every other day. With the budget two months away, President Asif Zardari can’t afford to take any chances in the numbers game. Failure would amount to a vote of no-confidence and curtains for his government. So he needs a stable partner who’s out in the cold and desperate to climb into bed with him. The PMLQ fits the bill nicely. It has as many MNAs to offer as the MQM and JUI combined. But not perfectly, because it was the “Qatil” League only three years ago after Mr Zardari accused it of murdering Benazir Bhutto. It is also a good electoral partner to have in the Punjab where it will eat into the anti-PPP vote bank targeted by Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN and the PTI-led alliance that is in the offing. In a three way fight, the PPP-PMLQ alliance with creative seat adjustments – on the basis of the new population census which will significantly change the constituency landscape – has a great chance of bumping off its rivals in many hotly contested constituencies.

The PMLQ’s leaders, Chaudhry Pervez Elahi and Chaudry Shujaat, have barely managed to hold their own in the face of raids on their uneasy MNAs by the PMLN in Punjab. Abandoned by the military after General Musharraf’s exit, they need to clutch at someone’s coattails for survival. The PPP under Mr Zardari is as pragmatic as it can get, which suits the Chaudhries and all those old and new Muslim Leaguers who can’t stomach Nawaz Sharif’s autocratic ways or fear his vindictive tendencies. Imran Khan’s anti-corruption, anti-establishment, revolutionary rhetoric is not palatable either. And since Mr Zardari has clarified that his reference to the “Qatil” League was aimed at General Musharraf and not the Chaudhries – which is why Gen Musharraf is in the dock for the murder of Benazir Bhutto and not the Chaudhries – the route is open for their alliance.

This PPP-PMLQ alliance will be based on a detailed MOU about key issues of policy and power-sharing during crunch times ahead. Among these are budgetary proposals, AF-Pak and Pak-US relations, local body elections, seat adjustments, allocation of funds for MNAs and MPAs, allotment of ministries and advisorships, etc. The inevitable disgruntlement in their respective ranks and files will have to be handled effectively.

The military is backing Imran Khan as a spoiler. He is popular with young people. His problem is a lack of organizational ability to pull the voter out. But the ISI is a past master at creating parties and cobbling alliances – PNA, IJI, MMA – with a view to ensuring that no party gets such a majority that its leaders run amuck and break loose from their masters in GHQ, as happened with Mohammad Khan Junejo in 1987-88 and Nawaz Sharif 1999. So if Imran Khan & Co can split the vote and stop the PMLN from galloping past the poll, or the PPP from getting out of hand, the military’s objectives will be well served. One way to keep the civil-military imbalance tilted in its favour is to keep the civilians divided and disorganized.

All this leaves Nawaz Sharif in the lurch. If he pre-empts these moves by trying to oust the Zardari regime by joining hands with the MQM and JUI, he risks being sidelined by a third force comprising the judges, media and military which is rooting for a quasi-constitutional technocratic regime instead of him. If he bides his time, the PPP-PMLQ budding alliance will blossom to his disadvantage when the elections roll around.

The hard budget in June will test everyone’s nerves. The PPP and PMLQ will have to shoulder the burden of public hostility. An election soon thereafter could prove to be their death-knell. So they will want to keep the government and alliance going the full hog until Feb 2014, enabling them to live to fight a better day.

By the same measure, however, Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan & Co will find no better opportunity than budget time to gird their loins for a final Heave-Ho and early election.

The X factor remains the Supreme Court. It has the capacity to upset the Chaudhry’s cart by derailing the political career of Moonis Elahi. It also seems intent on knocking Mr Zardari and his government. This is ominous. If there is gridlock between the executive and judiciary, the anti-American media and anti-politician military will become the arbiters of Pakistan’s fate. In the event, Pakistan’s fledgling democracy and ailing economy will suffer an epileptic fit again.

Win-win situation

2011-04-04T03:49:00.000+05:00

Before the match, the weight of history was with the side batting first which has won in 72 per cent of all matches played at Mohali. The experts and bookies had also tilted in India’s favour. It had a better batting line-up, half a dozen players were firing on all cylinders, captain MS Dhoni was tried and tested for Tests, ODIs and 20/20s. The Indian cricketers were also playing before a highly charged and partisan home crowd. Pakistan, by contrast, was just beginning to shrug off the burden of shame and demoralization after the match-fixing scandal in England last year that laid three of its most talented players low, captain Shahid Afridi had a spotty record, and the youngsters were not fully groomed. Indeed, it was remarkable that they had beaten giant-killers like Australia and the West Indies to inch their way to the top.

In the heat and dust of battle, however, two key facts have been overlooked in Pakistan.

First, the better performing and more professional Indian “team” won by using its brains and not brawn. This is largely a consequence of a developing Indian (not Hindu) mindset based on the mundane but fierce aspirations of an upwardly mobile, educated, secular, middle-class that is billing itself not only as an organized, disciplined and reliable engine of economic and cultural growth but also as a most attractive emerging market with disposable money in an increasingly flat world. This is in stark contrast to Pakistan in which the state is riddled with problems of identity (Muslim or Pakistani) and notions of national interest (honour versus interests), and Pakistanis are consequently grappling with multiple crises of economy, culture, education, integration and cohesion. This is a recipe for pride and passion in all aspects of life and sport, not professionalism and principle. Interesting, the other cricket match finalist is another secular South Asian country, Sri Lanka, which has nearly 100 per cent literacy, a high economic growth rate and has just won a civil war to unite the country and make it strong and unified. Both ambitious-country examples prove that while individual talent is a necessary condition for sporting success, the sufficient condition is provided by strong nationalist motivation based on a realistic sense of economic destiny and political confidence that stresses the role of unity, discipline and professionalism rather than faith or the hand of Providence alone in determining fate or destiny.

Second, the cricketing encounter has opened up the possibility of serious discussions about “permanent peace” between India and Pakistan.

There are five main reasons for this initiative.

First, Dr Manmohan Singh’s government is dogged by charges of corruption and mismanagement and is weaker today than at any time before. Personally, too, he is at the fag end of his political career without having made any great mark of distinction. So now was a good time to take a more inspiring initiative and invite the leaders of Pakistan to smoke the “permanent peace” pipe at Mohali, especially since the odds were heavily tilted in favour of an Indian victory.
Second, India’s investigations into the Samjhota Express bombing case in which 47 Pakistani were killed have revealed the hand of Hindu extremists in India rather than Islamic hardliners in Pakistan. This gives Pakistan a fillip in countering India’s charge of sponsoring terrorism against Pakistan.
Third, the Indian courts have convicted Ajmal Kasab but acquitted two Indian Muslims of links with the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Tayba leader Hafiz Saeed, thereby debunking the claims of India’s National Security Advisor MK Narayanan that all three were taking orders from Mr Saeed. This too has weakened India’s charge-sheet against Pakistan’s ISI.
Fourth, India’s quest for a permanent Security Council seat at the UN requires it to be reasonable and responsible by at least mending fences with its neighbours, especially nuclear-armed Pakistan.
Fifth, a continuation of India’s rapid economic growth is predicated on a permanent peace and trading relations with its neighbours rather than the specter of nuclear war and terrorist subversion.

Pakistan has invited Dr Singh to visit Pakistan and make a notable gesture of permanent peace. He should seize the day. At least Siachin and Sir Creek are amenable to quick resolution as all Indian and Pakistani diplomats and pundits know. So India’s win at Mohali needs to be cemented with an Indo-Pak “win” in Lahore during Dr Singh’s visit to Pakistan as soon as possible.

CIA-ISI partnership after Davis

2011-03-31T16:21:00.000+05:00

Raymond Davis now free man

It was a classic proverbial mid-night deal secured by all those who matter in this country – from the presidential palace on the Hilltop to Aabpara to the General Headquarter in Rawalpindi, underscoring a “consensus among all the stake-holders in the current power structure” that Davis deserved no diplomatic immunity but his case would be wrapped up before sunrise on March 16, in the heavily fortified Kot Lakhpat jail. Everyone involved would be out of the country before people would come to know about it. This is precisely what came to transpire. The Inter-services Intelligence (ISI) executed the entire operation, practically took over the jail and made the families of the victims – Faheem and Faizan – sign the compensation deal within minutes of Davis’ “indictment” by the judge, Yousuf Ojla. The ISI then led six US Consulate vehicles to the Lahore Airport where reportedly 18 passengers boarded a special aircraft and left Pakistan before dawn.

Although the counsel of the bereaved families alleged that the families of Faizan and Fahim had been forcibly brought from their homes to the court to ink the “2.3 million blood money deal at gunpoint,” yet from the government perspective, the Davis saga ended rather smoothly, thereby marking the beginning of a new phase in the increasingly wobbly CIA-ISI relationship.

Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani’s March 18 statement made the end game crystal clear. The brief statement basically radiated with the warmth of the “grand national consensus” on the Davis case. “The country’s leadership including the opposition had reached a consensus that the final decision would be taken by the court”. The court, he said, decided in favour of Davis’ release, which was carried out with alacrity and it was therefore inappropriate to hold any single institution responsible for the final outcome of the case.

As events suggest, US-appointed fire-fighter Senator John Kerry’s dash to Islamabad mid February laid out the main contours of bilateral understanding; the government would try to sort out the matter on the basis of diyat (blood money) before the court indicted Davis on murder charges. Kerry was probably also assured that Davis would not be charged for espionage.

Consequently, on February 23, General Kayani held extensive discussions with US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen; US Central Command Commander General James Mattis; US Special Operations Command Commander Admiral Eric Olson and NATO Commander in Afghanistan General David Petraeus. At these meetings the ongoing CIA-ISI-led cooperation was reviewed and the military leaders probably also revised the Terms of Reference (ToRs) of this decade old transactional relationship, which both sides tout as a “strategic relationship”.

Many observers point out that the management of the Davis case by the ISI essentially underscored three realities, (i) that the ISI managed to score a point about unbridled CIA activities through security contractors, ii) that the military continues to dominate the political landscape in Pakistan (would Davis be out of jail had the ISI opposed it is the million dollar question?) and iii) the ISI led establishment cut a deal in its own interest.

While the deal is still shrouded in mystery, it will likely help in restoring the CIA-ISI working relationship. It has also helped Nawaz Sharif getting a new lease of political life; by virtually staying quiet away in a London hospital, Sharif successfully washed off his “dangerous anti-American image” (as had been revealed by American diplomats in the cables released by the Wikieleaks).

If events of the past are any indication, the Davis deal is not likely to change the pragmatism underpinning ISI-CIA cooperation; this particular case might put some constraints direct CIA operations such as mapping of the militant networks in mainland Pakistan, particularly in south Punjab but Waziristan remains the point of consensus for the two agencies. A drone strike less than 24 hours of Davis’s departure underlined the CIA’s focus on North Waziristan

Kayani’s condemnation and the protest lodged with the US ambassador highlighted two issues; the drone strike on March 17 gave the ISI and the army a good ruse to fend off severe criticism flowing from their direct handling of the Davis case and it also exposed the limitations of the Pakistani security apparatus. Continued Predator attacks on Dattakhel suggest that this security apparatus is either unable to penetrate areas, where Americans believe al-Qaeda-linked militants are being sheltered or it is complicit with the militant network based in that region. Either way the CIA would continue justifying the use of drones for taking out militants that it says threaten the larger US-NATO interests in Afghanistan.

Davis case, therefore, might have caused frictions between the CIA and ISI, but its settlement is not likely to change the direction of CIA’s air campaign in Waziristan. Since Pakistan is reluctant in going after what the US forces consider “the den of terrorists”, the CIA will keep lobbing Hellfire missiles into Waziristan. The US establishment will also desperately try to keep Pakistan on board for its phased withdrawal plans because the perceived success of the US military surge and partial disengagement hinges on Pakistani cooperation. That is why the US administration desperately wanted to remove the irritant ie Raymond Davis out of the way before Prime Minister Gilani is likely to consent to Afghan president Hamid Karzai’s announcements on transition plans.

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2011-03-17T13:26:00.001+05:00

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