Simplicity

RE: iPhones?

2008-06-11T11:48:00.007+10:00

It’s going to the moon…your not going to miss the boat, your going to miss the space shuttle!!

Ok dude, looks like you have been intro'd to trading but you have not been given you the run down.

Three type of inputs into a trading decision

a) Technical

b) Fundamental

c) Wishy washy feeling in your stomach ;)

I can’t explain the third, you will have to find that from watching romantic movies…just kidding…it will just come to you.

Now between the two others a) and b) above.

I like this.

In a shopping mall, a fundamental analyst would go to each store, study the product that was being sold, and then decide whether to buy it or not. By contrast, a technical analyst would sit on a bench in the mall and watch people go into the stores. Disregarding the intrinsic value of the products in the store, his or her decision would be based on the patterns or activity of people going into each store. http://www.answers.com/topic/technical-analysis

So most people (mum and dad traders) use 90% technical .

Remember 90% of the mum and dad community never make any serious money in the markets. Seems like a correlation, aye!!!

I am a fundamental trader. I only look at charts for blue chip companies that are not volatile and have seasonality and are growing slowly. That’s where technical trading works and that’s what it was built on!!

Another great posting on this amazing blog http://simplisticbiscit.blogspot.com/ is the following. I have highlighted the important points.

Tuesday, September 06, 2005

TradingDay.com Technical Analysis Tutorial - 20 Rules To Stop Losing Money - HardRightEdge.com

This is really good advice, especially for you out there who believe that reling on technical trading is going to make you money.

TradingDay.com Technical Analysis Tutorial - 20 Rules To Stop Losing Money - HardRightEdge.com

20 Rules To Stop Losing Money

1. Don't trust others opinions -
It's your money at stake, not theirs. Do your own analysis, regardless of the information source.

2. Don't believe in a company -
Trading is not investment. Remember the numbers and forget the press releases. Leave the American Dream to Peter Lynch.

3. Don't break your rules -
You made them for tough situations, just like the one you're probably in right now.

4. Don't try to get even -
Trading is never a game of catch-up. Every position must stand on its merits. Take your loss with composure, and take the next trade with absolute discipline.

5. Don't trade over your head -
If your last name isn't Buffett or Cramer, don't trade like them. Concentrate on playing the game well, and don't worry about making money.

6. Don't seek the Holy Grail -
There is no secret trading formula, other than solid risk management. So stop looking for it.

7. Don't forget your discipline -
Learning the basics is easy. Most traders fail due to a lack of discipline, not a lack of knowledge.

8. Don't chase the crowd -
Listen to the beat of your own drummer. By the time the crowd acts, you're probably too late…or too early.

9. Don't trade the obvious -
The prettiest patterns set up the most painful losses. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.

10. Don't ignore the warning signs -
Big losses rarely come without warning. Don't wait for a lifeboat to abandon a sinking ship.

11. Don't count your chickens -
Profits aren't booked until the trade is closed. The market gives and the market takes away with great fury.

12. Don't forget the plan -
Remember the reasons you took the trade in the first place, and don't get blinded by volatility.

13. Don't have a paycheck mentality -
You don't deserve anything for all of your hard work. The market only pays off when you're right, and your timing is really, really good.

14. Don't join a group -
Trading is not a team sport. Avoid stock boards, chatrooms and financial TV. You want the truth, not blind support from others with your point of view.

15. Don't ignore your intuition -
Respect the little voice that tells you what to do, and what to avoid. That's the voice of the winner trying to get into your thick head.

16. Don't hate losing -
Expect to win and lose with great regularity. Expect the losing to teach you more about winning, than the winning itself.

17. Don't fall into the complexity trap -
A well-trained eye is more effective than a stack of indicators. Common sense is more valuable than a backtested system.

18. Don't confuse execution with opportunity -
Overpriced software won't help you trade like a pro. Pretty colors and flashing lights make you a faster trader, not a better one.

19. Don't project your personal life -
Trading gives you the perfect opportunity to discover just how screwed up your life really is. Get your own house in order before playing the markets.

20. Don't think its entertainment -
Trading should be boring most of the time, just like the real job you have right now.

Posted by Vinny at 10:40 AM 0 comments Links to this post

If you have got this far you are doing well and do have an interest in this stuff!! Well done.

Ok now to RIMM.

Here is what I took from the 200 price target.

I will make comments on the highlighted parts below.

a) Enterprise functionality…watch the webcast..they cover it all…I don’t think anything is missing!

b) Lower price means more competition for Nokia and HTC. So the analyst is alluding that RIM is premium based market and will not put pressure on RIM. This is bullshit because the 199 price point directly is pitched at RIM and RIM is main competitor to iPhone. Not HTC or Nokia.
The lower priced iphone is going to put margin pressure on RIMM’s top earning phones including their up coming touch phone. Yup they have an iphone copy in the works!

c) Battery life and bandwith…this is why these financial jerkeys should stick to their numbers and why we can out play them ;) Blackberry servers strip content before delivering to your phone. This is both email and web pages. Surfing on the blackberry sucks. The new 3G blackerry’s will allow full access, the iphone will out class in both battery life and bandwidth depends on what you are downloading if there is no stripping. Boygeniusreport.com for reference on upcoming 3G rimm phones.

d) RIM will continue to grow…but critical to the stock price, margins will decline for next few years….short baby short!!

e) Misek obviously has a 3G iphone to compare to the Bold…yeah right…..

Research in Motion
Speaking of Blackberries, there seem to be many parties running to the defense of Research in Motion today despite Apple’s emphatic embrace of the Blackberry business market in Jobs’s pitch. The stock is up $1.26, or 1%, today, at $135.37. Richard Windsor with Nomura Securities, writing from London, observes in a note on Apple that “We do not think that this will affect RIM very much as Apple remains very far away from offering the level of enterprise functionality that Blackberry does.” Be that as it may, the $199 price “moves the i-Phone much closer to the mainstream and will raise competition for both Nokia and [Taiwanese smartphone maker] HTC in the smartphone market.” Research in Motion shares are Likewise, analyst Peter Misek with Canaccord Adams writes that Apple will be unable to match the Blackberry’s security, battery life, bandwidth efficiency, “backend IT support,” among other things. He thinks Apple will do very well selling 20 to 30 million iPhones next year, but that RiM may sell 50 million Blackberries. Misek also tosses in his personal experience, noting that he thinks download speeds for Web pages are faster on the Blackberry Bold (that’s the 3G device). Misek has a “Buy” rating on RiM and a price target of $200.

Good luck with the trading!!! :)

Playing it Big...to make it big!

2008-06-10T13:09:00.002+10:00

Here’s a good article to get you excited and pumped about trading and making it a way of life.

Note the amount he starts off with and what he is estimated to be worth today and the time period.

Like I have said a few times. The amount you have does not matter to much to make this a way of life. You just have to play big (% wise) initially ;) You no doubt get burnt but its those who put it on the line that also have the chance to make it big. The more conservative you are, the less likely you are to make anything meaningful. Of course you need some smarts, intuition and a pinch of waffle magic to boot!

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Phil-Mathews-1-billion-oil-win-FFT2F?OpenDocument&alerts&loc=center

End Of Housing Boom?

2008-02-13T13:29:00.001+11:00

Hi All,

Here is some interesting reading for you all about the property market. The opinion of the first person interviewed matches the same opinion I have about the potential risks in the current housing market (median house pricing that is) environment, both in Australia and NewZealand.
The second person interviewed has the opposite view. You choose where you sit and feel free to drop me a note on why you swing either way.

It's worth a read if you have some time.

STEVE KEEN

Associate professor school of Economics & Finance, University of Western Sydney

Has the market reached tipping point?

It's actually several markets, and one of them - the working/ lower middle-class suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney - is past tipping point and in decline.

Wealthy suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne may be on the verge, with the declines in the stockmarket bringing to an end the "turn it into bricks and mortar" approach to locking in share trading profits. There may be some major declines there, as people who are being cruci- fied by margin calls are forced to liquidate.

Overall, the market has to be topping. Our bubble almost turned in 2004 - and if it hadn't been for Howard's doubling of the first home buyers grant and halving of the rate of capital gains tax (when owners sell an investment property), it probably would have. Those populist policies restarted the bubble as it began to falter. It might have another year left in it, by which time house prices would have tripled in less than 20 years - whereas the dreaded consumer price index (and wages!) has risen by just over 50 per cent.

When it does turn, what's in store?

It has to fall at least as far as the US market will, and probably a lot more. Some conservative pundits think US prices need to fall another 25 per cent to restore pre-bubble valuations, and they've already fallen 8%.

That means a 33% decline from a peak that's 30% lower than ours. Given that our economy is in slightly better shape than theirs, it still puts a minimum on the price decline needed of about 33%, and a maximum of 50% could apply if the China boom comes to an end.

Rates hit 17% under Keating. So 7% isn't nearly as bad - is it?

For mortgage stress to be the same today as it was in 1990, mortgage rates would need to be 3%! So 7% now - and 8-10% on mortgages themselves - is three times worse than 17% under Keating.

Is it time the Government bit the bullet on capital gains tax breaks/negative gearing?

Definitely. But the cautious approach of tinkering with rebates and subsidies is bound to win out over the hard policy of removing, once and for all, the incentives that have so distorted our housing market.

This would be predictable, timid, and ultimately useless policy. Almost every such trick simply boosts some sector of the market's demand capacity - when what we need to do is drive down the demand price.

Removing capital gains and negative gearing would slash demand, but the Government will hold off because many people who still anticipate real estate profits would scream blue murder. So to placate the winners, the losers will suffer.

We've heard a lot about "mortgage stress", but it's often associated with traditional "battler" locations. Is this going to change?

Yes. The stockmarket collapse and the margin calls that are part and parcel of it will cause the top end to tank - possibly more severely than the battler end. This market decline still has legs, and it will take the upper housing market with it.

What's in store for renters - won't higher rates fuel rent and thereby inflation?

Yes! This is the comical thing about trying to control inflation using interest rates. The three main contributors to the latest CPI figure in order were transportation (5.6%), financial and insurance services (4.9%), and housing (4.8%). With them removed from the index, the rate might well be still within the RBA's target range.

Of course, at some point the rates will turn the screws so thoroughly that the economy will tank, and then distress sales will drive prices down.

Where to for rates?

Up for the next six months to a year, as the RBA pursues its inflation obsession, and then down like a brick in hot pursuit of a declining economy. This is where the US is now, and we are only time away from joining them.

Bernanke Testimony

2008-01-18T11:06:00.000+11:00

I love listening to this guy cause he speaks in english. Greenspan had a habit of talking in a foreign language.
Here's the link to the transcript. He briefly describes in layman terms, what caused the so call "subprime credit crisis/crunch".
He also talks about the current hot topic (media and coming elections/primaries) in america about fiscal stimulus to stop the US going into recession.
The testimony is normally also televised on cnbc etc, although its about 2am our time. The transcript below does not include question time which is often worth listening to as well.

The Senators are not the smartest people but they ask questions that a typical Jo would ask.

Anyway, I stand by what i have said previously, expect a slow down in the global economy over the next two years. Recession is absolutely on the cards in America (I can't give you a % on this, but will tell you that it depends on China and I have been hearing that China should see single digit growth this year after more than a decade of double digit growth) you may start hearing about a slow down or even recession in Australia by years end depending on how bad the US situation gets and how quickly China does slow down.
If there is a protracted slowdown in the US, this will impact all investment vehicles in Australia which means, currency, commodity prices, equities and yes housing as well.

Having said that, this is the time to be saving up your pennies and looking for an opportunity to jump into the markets. US equities in the second to later half of this year but only selected sectors, I still love tech's. Aus equities in the end of 2009, but i would look at shorting the Aus market now and into the later part of 2009 and into Aus housing about 2010/11 (this does not mean you should not buy property - there will be certain sectors of the housing market that will do OK) which will be about six years from 2004 which was the last peak of the housing market. Housing cycles historically have run 7-10 years. This one will run closer to the 10 year mark.
And if people tell you that Sydney housing doubles every 10 years (agents tell me this non-sense all the time), tell them to show you the numbers. From my study, typically the median house price in Sydney increases approx 50% every 10 years (approx 4% compounded annual growth) (based on historical figures prior to the 1998-2004 housing boom which I believe saw average median housing increase approx 128%). I believe 128% growth is unsustainable unless we (Australia) become the next China some how (which could happen in the future, well into the future at the moment)! I dont know much about the other cities in Australia as I dont follow them so feel free to comment about your end of the world.
NZ housing also I don't have a lot of exposure to but generally NZ runs the same course as Australia with a slight time lag.

On the interest rate front expect the interest rates to increase in Australia in Feb by 0.25% and then interest rate cuts in the first half of next year and probably for the whole of 2009 as the Aus economy starts to loose steam (regardless of what happens in the US - although US will compound the slowdown if they dont see throw their mess).
If interest rates don't go up in Feb, expect the Australia economy to start slowing down earlier than I was expecting and of course the fall out from the other investment vehicles will follow shortly there after.

Anyway, enough of my babble. Feel free to drop me your thoughts.
Hope you all and your family members are well.
You all have a good weekend.

Stocks of Interest

2007-07-17T13:18:00.000+10:00

Today I am interested in the following due to market position. I have not looked at financial fundamentals which should dictate fair value, entry and exit prices.

NTAP - has got a bashing of late and the CEO has said that concentrating on software and services and also that long term the opportunities are still vast.
LOGI - released the in-air mouse. They continue to concentrate on building new products that can be used in an innovative manor and peripheral usage in the home continues to grow as more devices become digital and are connected.

Adobe Systems, Inc. Company Information - Forbes.com

2006-05-02T16:54:00.000+10:00

Adobe Systems, Inc. Company Information - Forbes.com

This is an interesting comparison of products between Microsoft and Adobe and which ones may impact Adobe when Microsoft does launch them. Basic Summary - low impact to Adobe's core business.

Samsung Scores Major Deal for New Apple iPod Digital Lifestyle Magazine @ dlmag.com

2006-04-27T16:14:00.000+10:00

Armhy and mips are both designers of chips that are used in the embeded market. Both have their chip designs being used by major chip vendors who supply chips into the mas market consumabes.
Both these companies are 'buys' and will continue to profit from the growing tech consumer mass market.
One to watch!

Samsung Scores Major Deal for New Apple iPod Digital Lifestyle Magazine @ dlmag.com: "Samsung made public at the SEMI Strategic Business Conference that they held a contract with Apple. Jon Kang, senior vice president in marketing at Samsung Semiconductor Inc., said “I knew PortalPlayer would take a dive, I knew that we would win this design.' Samsung’s chip is inspired by ARM Holdings plc. 32-bit processor technology, with Kang referring to the company as being the “PortalPlayer Killer”. Executives for Samsung noting that they supply the majority of NAND flash for Apple’s iPod, further elaborating “We’ve been working with Apple a long time, it’s a huge win for us.”"

amtd/Dow Jones Newswires - Story

2006-04-19T00:57:00.000+10:00

This article is written by Bambi Francisco and can be mostly ignored because she doesn't have a clue!
But she lists a bunch of web sites with cool video content that people across the globe are uploading.

amtd/Dow Jones Newswires - Story: "They include Rocketboom.com, a very interesting video blog. I already mentioned Current.tv. Then there is Grouper.com, Dailymotion.com, Vmix.com, Metacafe.com, Vidilife.com, Guba.com, and eBaumsworld.com. There's also Ourmedia.org, Veoh.com, Podzinger.com, Break.com, Tagworld.com, Gorillamask.net, Fireant.tv, Dailysixer.com, iFilm.com, Sloopy.com, Atom Film (and AddictingClips), Extremefunnyhumor.com, Dinkytv.com, Stupidvideos.com, GrindTV.com, Comegetyousome.com, and Livedigital.com."

New is where it's at as Beijing builds its future - Properties - International Herald Tribune

2006-04-17T15:40:00.000+10:00

This is why I think that the majority of the commodoties market will fall post 2008 as china comes of the burn after major development projects leading to the 2008 olympics.

New is where it's at as Beijing builds its future - Properties - International Herald Tribune:

"The building boom is expected to taper off, in large part because the government has vowed to halt construction projects in 2008, when it is host to the Games, in order to reduce the clouds of dust they generate and help the city meet international air quality standards."

Trading Rules

2006-04-07T17:50:00.000+10:00

‘white magic’ process to making money every time on the market:

1) Diversify portfolio by have no more than 20% of total spending power in one position in general

2) Strategize the company’s products and markets and determine long term buy and or short.

3) Determine if company will meet projected earnings for FY and coming next 2 Q’s

4) Determine Fair price based on PE, estimated earnings growth for next FY and coming Q’s – F P/E. and against average PE ratio of competitors or other companies in the sector (i.e software, semi-conductors etc) and look at company fundamentals – historic earnings growth (over last 2 years) and current cash, money flow and long term debt.

5) Based on number 3, determine share price growth and estimated time and that should be the exit strategy – should be based around events such as earnings announcement or product announcement or company acquisitions or management changes etc

6) Watch market sentiment and re-run 1-4 as new developments occur in the company and market.

7) If after doing 5) you find that everything still good, then make a decision to average up and or down. In case of down try to estimate the bottom and reason why stock is falling and thus try to time average down to maximize benefit of averaging down.

8) Hold a worst case trailing on stock – which should be well below the price you would average down against – should be last resort if things are looking really bad.

9) If after your timing and or event price reaches your target, re do steps 1-4 and either re-evaluate price, number stocks help or sell out completely.

The Australian: Consumers make a comeback [April 05, 2006]

2006-04-05T12:41:00.000+10:00

I think there is another two years left in the aussie stock market. I was reading the article below and the consensus seems to be turning that way.I think China will continue buying resources until 2008, before the Olympic Games begin. Hi-Tech manufacturing is not going to slow down for a very long time to come, although resources consumed in that sector will not grow as quickly as we have seen over the whole resources market in the last 5 years (due to construction/infrastructure development mainly). So around 2008-2009, I think there is a shorting opportunity if there is growth priced into any of the financial instruments which are influenced by commodities.

The Australian: Consumers make a comeback [April 05, 2006]: "Economists are going back over their forecasts. Richardson believes growth in 2006-07 will be well above 3 per cent, while he expects it to top 4 per cent in 2008.
Deutsche's Meer says that rather than growth in the 2 to 3 per cent range, it will rise to between 3 and 4 per cent, which is closer to the average growth rate for the Australian economy.
Economists will pay close attention to the labour force figures out tomorrow, to see whether last month's jump in employment was a flash in the pan, inspired by Melbourne's Commonwealth Games, or whether there is a more substantial shift under way.
It may be that Peter Costello hits his 3 per cent growth target for 2005-06 after all. "

Metals Are Burning Up the Market

2006-04-04T00:00:00.000+10:00

Metals Are Burning Up the Market

Aluminum is up 22% and zinc almost 40% as demand for heavy equipment, airplanes, and infrastructure such as highways and railroads remains strong across the globe.

Aluminum is in high demand to build aircraft ordered by Asian and Middle Eastern carriers while zinc is needed to produce galvanized steel. (Railroad and other infrastructure projects in emerging markets are fueling steel demand.)

Jewelry demand rose 14% measured in dollars, industrial demand increased 11%, and investors upped their purchases by 37%, including a 67% increase from exchange-traded funds in the U.S. and elsewhere, the council reported.

On the supply side, mines produced only 1% more gold than they did in 2004. Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors in San Antonio, has been bullish on gold throughout the current cycle; he points to the run-up in oil as an overlooked factor. Billions of petrodollars have already flowed into gold, he says. Based on the historic relationship between the two commodities, he says, gold should hit at least $700 within a couple of years.

Bloomberg.com: Top Worldwide

2006-04-03T23:31:00.000+10:00

commodities - Silver

Bloomberg.com: Top Worldwide:

"Paints, Batteries

The funds have to buy metal and place it in a vault, and this will add to metals demand and also reduce the amount of gold and silver able to be traded, the Macquarie analysts said.

Silver's widening use in products from paints to batteries to medical devices has made it more appealing than gold for some investors seeking a haven from the dollar's decline. Demand for silver in industrial applications is estimated to rise 5 to 6 percent in 2005, researcher GFMS said. Filmakers are the biggest users of silver."

Google Click-to-Call

2006-02-18T01:25:00.000+11:00

How coolness is this. It looks like Google is going to beat Skype/eBay to the end goal. This is going to be a large money spinner for Google. Still very little detail of nature of call quality, charges to end user, and charges to advertiser.
But oh so cool, this is going to make the world a much smaller place. I can now call a retailer any where in the world to get my PS3 (when it is finally released) and have them ship it to me if it is not available in my home country :). Only one example of what pay par call is going to allow.

Google Click-to-Call: "# What's the phone icon on Google search results? How does it work?

We're testing a new product that gives you a free and fast way to speak directly to the advertiser you found on a Google search results page – over the phone.

Here's how it works: When you click the phone icon, you can enter your phone number. Once you click 'Connect For Free,' Google calls the number you provided. When you pick up, you hear ringing on the other end as Google connects you to the other party.

We won't share your telephone number with anyone, including the advertiser. When you're connected with the advertiser, your number is blocked so the advertiser can't see it. In addition, we'll delete the number from our servers after a short period of time."

Looking Forward To Feb 2006

2006-02-13T23:03:00.000+11:00

Ok, it's been a while my friends. This is going to be a very quick note about what I am thinking about and watching this month Feb of 2006.

To begin with, I am watching Google, Nvidia, Network Appliance and Apple. Google because the share price has fallen from around 430 before there last Q earnings and I think at forward looking PE for 2006 of 40 makes them cheap considering they will in the worst case keep growing at 50% year over year for atleast the next 4-5 years.

Nvidia has its graphics cards in the playstation 3. This is going to be Sonys single biggest release that will influence the direction of the company and either kills or makes their electronics division. So whats in this PS3 - for techincal details head to the gaming sites etc. On a very high level, we will apparently see: wireless controllers, dual tuner which will support 1080p, Blu-Ray drive, hard drive, Ethernet Port for online gaming. Integration with the PSP for remote control of the PS3. Streaming of content stored on your PS3 to your PSP as long as both devices are networked. You will also see an online store selling music and videos and provide an online gaming environment like Msft has in xbox live.
Now if all of the above is true and the gaming quailty is better than the xbox 360, and I mean like considerably better, than Sony has the new generation console fight in the bag, regardless of launch price and availability.
So Nvidia a def. watch.

Network Appliance - Storage requirments are growing all over the world in every industry and these guys cater for the medium to large enterprise. The medium eterprise space is where the magic is happening and these guys are number one with their iSCSI solution and NAS systems.

Apple - We are expecting a new ipod on Feb 22 and from the last announcement in early Jan introducing the intel Mac's the stock is down from 84 down to about 64. Nice time to buy considering the iPod domination is not yet underthreat and all the new Apple products are also picking up pace slowly.

Ok so thats what I am watching and excited about at the moment. The other things of interest are, Japan and its growth, the housing market in Australia and the US. Ben Bernanake(sp?) and interest rates in the US. The resource market and consumer sentiment.

2006-02-13T22:53:00.000+11:00

Some interesting news. I think median house prices are cooked and also depend on the agency providing the data. But from my Âbest guessÂ estimate, Sydney median house prices have fallen from 10-15% from the peak in 2003 depending on location. I think the other state cities that have had increasing house prices will stop increasing as soon as the resources boom cools down.

I think over the next three years Sydney house prices will fall another 10% unless Australia and more specifically NSW finds some sort of oil fields!

http://smh.com.au/news/national/sydney-house-prices-slip-five-per-cent/2006/02/13/1139679526701.html

Estimates for PSP, DS sales 2005-2008 - Joystiq - www.joystiq.com

2005-10-07T12:16:00.000+10:00

Slowdown hits home for agents - Business - Business - smh.com.au

2005-09-26T11:39:00.000+10:00

"According to Australian Property Monitors, 10,192 properties were auctioned in Sydney in the year to June 30, 2005, with a clearance rate of 52 per cent, raising $4.3 billion. This is well down on the previous year's total of $7.6 billion, raised from 15,746 properties.

And things aren't likely to get better soon. Forecaster BIS Shrapnel said earlier this year that the median Sydney house price was expected to fall about 7 per cent over the next three years"

Why ebay bought skype!

2005-09-14T11:41:00.000+10:00

I will come back to this...but just a quick note since there is so much drama out there about why they have done it.

I can't believe how many people out there "don't get" the ebay-skype deal.
What's there not to get?
Skype as a stand alone business (which Meg said will continue) alone is going to displace billions of dollars in voice revenue across the globe. That money now goes to VoIP providers like skype and skype is number 1 in the space.
Ok so all the money going to be displaced will not go to Skype. It will be diluted considerably and shared amongst VoIP providers.
But do the math. Vonage a big VoIP provider in the US uses a VoIP solution that was built by the telecoms industry - which translates to massive capital outlay especially as the network expands. Does Skype have to contend with this? No. Why? Cause they don't have to spend a cent as they grow bigger, and there is no limitation to how big the skype network will become and how much voice it can carry. So can it kill Vonage and all because it can provide the lost cost solution? Ofcourse!
Are there many features you have not yet seen from skype that will generate them cash. Yes there is so much they can do in this space and if you think of all the money Google has made from adsense, skype will be able to replicate that will pay per click.
That's the biggy! Skype is not restricted to eBay as Paypal is not restricted to eBay, or the other companies eBay owns.
Skype can integrate into any software solution that has network connectivity.
So from the Dell website for direct sales to support to salesforce.com integration for customers who use the saleforce platform to directly talk to their customers to any ecommerce site which wants to provide a voice solution on the cheap which will match a normal PSTN service.
And if they earn a few cents for each call, you are talking about another adsense, google scenario.
Plus they have the foundation for a portal to compete against Google and Yahoo! Which you all don't seem to understand are their major competitors.
I could go on about this forever!
Ebay has made a brilliant strategic move. Developing a solution to compete against Skype is easier said then done from a tech perspective. Then you have to win users. Take in the time to do that vs the time to integrate and then build a cost model including potentially massive amounts of lost dollars in transactions that could have occurred in the mean time from straight voice service through to transactions on ebay, rent.com etc

TradingDay.com Technical Analysis Tutorial - 20 Rules To Stop Losing Money - HardRightEdge.com

2005-09-06T10:40:00.000+10:00

Property hopes home in on select suburbs - National - smh.com.au

2005-09-03T11:03:00.000+10:00

Property hopes home in on select suburbs - National - smh.com.au: "Sydney's residential property market slump has been so severe that prices in certain suburbs will quickly bounce back during the next 12 months, an industry analyst has forecast.

Many other analysts, though, expect prices will, at best, assume a holding pattern, but are more likely to continue dropping for all but the best properties.

Several suburbs had been hit hard in the downturn and in some cases the fall had been a touch overdone, said Louis Christopher, the research director of Australian Property Monitors, which provides sales results and analysis to consumers, the real estate industry and mortgage lenders. APM is co-owned by John Fairfax Holdings, publisher of the Herald.

House prices had dropped too sharply in Gymea Bay, Newport, Darlington and Neutral Bay, Mr Christopher said, and the suburbs were ripe for a rebound, barring an economic downturn.

It was a similar scenario for units in Tamarama, Coogee, McMahons Point and Cronulla.

'Elizabeth Bay's median unit price has fallen from $460,000 to $395,000 over the past year, but APM's 12-month projection is for 10 per cent-plus price growth,' Mr Christopher said.

Double Bay agent Bob Guth said: "Properties with all the boxes ticked are selling at better than reasonable prices."

House prices have fallen by 5 to 7 per cent since the 2003 peak, but some buyers are regularly securing bigger reductions.

Distress sales have become apparent among over-extended owners who bought often under the influence of property marketeers during the boom.

At Darlinghurst, a one-bedroom unit, sold off the plan in 2001 for $350,000, resold last month at $277,000. At West Ryde, a two-bedroom unit, sold off the plan in 2003 at $475,000, resold at $345,000. The falling prices coincide with a sharp reduction in volumes for both auction and private treaty listings.

Auction activity picked up marginally in winter on the previous year, but agents reported a slow start for September listings.

The average time a house is on the market before selling is now 83 days, compared with 67 days this time last year in the best performing precinct, the inner west.

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Some more evidence of what is happening in the hosuing market in Sydney and what will happen in the cities of America that have seen large increases in price over the last two years. Of course this is going to be the case in China as well which has also gone through a massive explosion in the housing market.

I would not buy comments of price corrections in Sydney. The economic fundamentals just don't match up. With all the recent news of rising fuel costs that is starting to hurt south east asia and China and India and of course the americans and to a smaller extent Australia all have to be taken into consideration.
Because of the global instability in currecny markets, in the resource markets, inflationary risks, the debt laden western world etc I would not count out a global recession in the coming couple of years which is not going to help the job markets nor will they aid in rising average salaries, especially in the "western world".

I would be looking at buying housing in 2010 considering all the negative factors and current risks in the global money markets.

Rough ride ahead, leading economist warns - National - smh.com.au

2005-09-01T13:49:00.000+10:00

Rough ride ahead, leading economist warns - National - smh.com.au: "The global economy is likely to be destabilised by the integration of China and India, one of the world's top economists has warned, as protesters continued to demonstrate against the Sydney meeting of international business leaders.

Speaking at the Forbes CEO conference yesterday, Professor Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner and former chief economist of the World Bank, said an 'enormous change' was taking place as more than 2 billion people were integrated into the world economy.

Imbalances in the United States - especially its massive deficit and low household savings rate - and soaring oil prices increased the risks as this massive transition was taking place, Professor Stiglitz said."

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Look for a definite change in the economic structure of most "developed countries" as China and India start to become more influential in the coming years. It's going to be a bumpy ride untill a new balance is struck in the global economic ring.

Sydney house prices down: ABS - Business - Business - smh.com.au

2005-09-01T13:45:00.000+10:00

Sydney house prices down: ABS - Business - Business - smh.com.au: "A sharp drop in Sydney has pushed down capital city house prices by 0.1 per cent, new figures released today show.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said prices in Sydney dropped 3.1 per cent in the quarter, but they rose in every other capital city.

Perth led the charge, with prices up 3.8 per cent, while they also lifted in Adelaide (1.5 per cent), Darwin (1.4 per cent), Melbourne (1.3 per cent), Brisbane (0.8 per cent), Canberra (0.3 per cent) and Hobart (0.2 per cent).

Over the full year, established home prices dropped 0.1 per cent. This is the first full-year fall since the March quarter of 1996.

Again, the figures were heavily affected by Sydney where prices were down 5 per cent over the past year.

But in Perth, prices were up 11.7 per cent, in Darwin they rose 8.6 per cent, in Adelaide they were up 7 per cent, in Canberra they lifted 2.5 per cent and in Brisbane they improved 1.8 per cent.

However, prices dropped 1.4 per cent over the year in Melbourne and 0.8 per cent in Hobart."

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They just keep falling...as predicted. I think this is only the begining. Look for a falling market well into 2009 before the market bottoms out.

Sun Today: Aiming for Clear Skies :: AO

2005-08-25T16:02:00.000+10:00

Sun Today: Aiming for Clear Skies :: AO: "Without giving any indication of where our next generation is headed, I believe we're now AMD's number one Opteron supplier in the marketplace. So we know we can achieve some volume. Now the real challenge is, let's go achieve some value. Volume's a good thing, [but] at the end of the day, only if you can convert it to value that ultimately gives you the fuel to go build the next generation of volume."

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Sounds like sun is going to start pushing the utility computing model quite hard in the near future. Utility computing uses a similar model to salesforce where you don't own the infrastructure, you just pay for using it. In this cases its for CPU consumption.

I think they are doing this initially as a show case to show the model can work. Sun sells hardware and the main software components that drive the applications on the hardware. This is not going to change anytime soon.

remember that the incumbent telco's are going to loose majority of their voice revenue in a very short period of time. They all have to reinvent them selves!

So what are they going to do? Well lets see what their biggest asset base is:
1) PSTN Telecoms equipment
2) Data networking equipment.

The first is going to become worthless. The second is going to become critical and will continue to grow. But they don't make a lot from data! So where will the substitute earnings they currently make from voice come from?
They will start to push content. Video, games, music and take a small cut.
Ok great but that will generate only small amounts of income unless they have extremely high amounts of volume (which some will and some wont).

So what else can they do?
ASP/DSP I hear you say. Yes that's right. They will start to provide utility computing. CPU time and storage.
As the world moves to an on-demand paradigmn, the providers like Salesforce don't want to have to look after hardware etc. They want to be able to source that out to an expert in the field, who has a tie in with networking since these have to go hand in hand.
So the likes of AT&T, Telstra, BT will move to become utility providers of not only data throughput but also computing power.

If Sun can pioneer this space before the rest and have both hardware and software built for this sole purpose, they will be the number one infrastructure providers for Utility computing. The Cisco of tomorrow.

Should be interesting!

Google planning IM service, report says | CNET News.com

2005-08-24T01:16:00.000+10:00

Google planning IM service, report says | CNET News.com: "Google is set to introduce its own instant-messaging system, the Los Angeles Times reported Tuesday. Such a move would mark an expansion by the Web search leader into text and also voice communications"

I have said this many times before. When Yahoo and Google offer a Skype like service, you can consider that the nail in the coffin for voice revenue globally. With these two large names coming into the VoIP game, VoIP is about to go main stream.
Of course at the moment I dont know exactly what Google will offer in voice comms but I would think it would be a similar model to Skype where they will not require their own network infrastructure to offer the service.
Get ready for a major hit to the incumbent share prices globally if Google are able to add security to the product, and convince big business that their calls are just as safe as going over the PSTN network.

So who else is effected?
All the network equipment vendors that tout VoIP products. This is the likes of Nortel, Cisco, and Avaya among various others. How much of an impact is this going to be to them? To a company like Avaya, it will be huge, to Cisco it will also be for a company like Cisco, a fairly large hit, for Nortel not so large although they will struggle to find alternatives to compensate in lost revenues as this is one of their growth targets.

But, yes there is a but. As VoIP becomes more commonly used, network traffic goes up, which means you need more network equipment that can carry the traffic. So thats a winner for the likes of Nortel and Cisco.

So my recomendations

Google - buy
Yahoo - buy
Cisco - hold
Nortel - Sell
Avaya - Sell