Captain Future's Dreaming Up Daily

Revenge of DEI

2026-11-08T01:51:51.974-08:00

In the first moments of the Boss Chaos era in early 2025, as Elon Musk prepared to take on his role as Lord High Executioner, his reaction to the horrific fires in southern California was to not only lay responsibility on fire fighters but claim they were incompetent because of rampant DEI hirings. It was the first absurd but deadly earnest indication of one of the main throughlines of the Chaos administration: supporting white supremacist ideology by demonizing decades of efforts in quest of Diversity, Equality and Inclusion.

Since then hundreds of people in the federal government have lost their jobs because they dared to do their jobs, administering so-called DEI programs mandated by law and administrative direction at higher levels. This was also part of the Secretary of (White) Testosterone Hegseth's purge of non-whites and women from top levels of the US military.

There were other relentless efforts to erase from official histories any suggestion that white people had ever suppressed equality and inclusion, or even that diversity existed and does exist (such as the official fired for noting on a website that it was Indigenous Peoples Day.)

Then the Supreme Court joined in by dismantling the last Voting Rights protections, and red states in the south couldn't gerrymander minority districts fast enough. Meanwhile, the American Gestapo known as ICE and related thug forces, went to war in the streets against brown people and anyone opposing their jackboot oppression. They created American concentration camps, black sites outside the law and decency. Psycho Steven Miller and the Muskovites continued their relentless attempt to sculpt a white nation of intolerance and privilege for the few out of the blood and bone of American communities.

Then after protests, some of them huge and many of them just as relentless, and after some notable off-year elections, came Tuesday November 3, 2026. With the second highest voter turnout nationally since women got the vote, with massive gains in black and Latino votes as well as changes in party by young white men and other groups, here is some of what happened:

In Georgia Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first black woman elected governor of any state in US history. There were eight state government offices on the ballot, and all eight were won by Democrats--and all eight by black women.

As of this moment it is almost certain that Scott Colom will become the second black man elected Senator in Mississippi history. The first was a former slave elected in the 1880s.

In Illinois Julianna Stratton was elected to the US Senate, bringing the number of black women in the Senate up to three for the first time in history.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed became the first Muslim elected to the US Senate.

In Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan will be the first Native American woman elected to the US Senate (likely to be joined by Mary Peltola of Alaska), and in New Mexico, Deb Haaland will be the first Native American woman elected Governor of any state.

Gina Hinojosa was elected the first Latina governor of Texas, and Xavier Becerra was elected the first Latino governor of California.

In New Hampshire, Chris Pappas will be the first openly gay man elected to the US Senate.

Maggie Ellis became the first LGBTQ+ candidate to be elected to a statewide office in Texas. She will be the Chief Justice of the Texas Supreme Court.

And Allison Montgomery was elected as Alabama's first transgender state legislator, in a district that had gone for Chaos by 21 points.

Amy Klobuchar was elected as Minnesota' first woman Governor. She was previously the first woman elected Senator from Minnesota. All current women governors were reelected, and joined by four states electing their first women governors. All together, a record high 17 states will have women chief executives.

There are doubtless other such stories among the many elections for Congress and within states won by Democrats across the country.

There is no recorded instance in which Republican efforts to slime Democratic candidates as leftwing and cultural extremists actually worked this time. Minorities were activated, but other Americans mostly seemed to see diversity, equality and inclusion as pretty normal, and certainly American.

In recognition of this perhaps, Boss Chaos elevated Psycho Steven Miller to Chief of Staff in the White House. He was the chief instigator of ICE Gestapo rampages. Reportedly he's already begun to purge anyone who might stand even temporarily in his way executing his extremist efforts to supercharge intolerance, cruelty and corruption. A cross between an inarticulate Joseph Goebbels and Chaos mentor and McCarthy acolyte Roy Cohn, Miller is seen as an enabler of Boss Chaos' worst impulses. His accession would seem to support Atlantic writer David Frum's contention that from Boss Chaos the worst is yet to come.

But the revenge of DEI was strong, and the opposition to Chaos has been immensely strengthened. Miller's expected supercharged efforts will do damage and cause pain for the next two years. But not without a fight. And vengeance comes again in 2028.

Election Night: The Rising

2026-11-04T00:20:26.213-08:00

UPDATES: More of the dimensions of Democratic gains in the states as well as the margins of federal victories are given the Rachel Maddow treatment here, and they are AMAZING. The post mortems have begun, and Chuck Todd is especially cogent: it was more than one thing, and it was set to happen before the Iran war.

There are two images that to me represent what happened in this 2026 election across America. The first is the street shrine to Alex Pretti, murdered by ICE in Minneapolis, with its new additions today: "I Voted" stickers. The second is James Talarico giving his victory speech in Texas behind a podium that said only, "Love Thy Neighbor."

It was an election of rejection, through the power of the vote. It was an election of rededication to ideals, as a pattern for the future. Both of these began in the No Kings demonstrations, in the accusations and affirmations on the signs millions of people made and carried. Many others joined the rising on the day it most mattered.

It was a rejection of power politics driven by money and serving the monied, as articulated by Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia and Senator-elect Talarico of Texas, who put it this way in that acceptance speech, referring to the hundreds of millions spent on smears against him: "Those attacks were the final howls of a dying establishment."

The dimensions of Democratic victories are literally stunning. That's in fact how I would describe the faces on the people who described the vote outcomes on TV livestreams and podcasts: sometimes joyous, sometimes teary, mostly they just looked stunned.

The polls were wrong, but in the way that Chuck Todd suggested they might be: they underestimated the vote against Republicans and for Democrats. In places where Chaos won by double digits in 2024, Democrats won by double digits. It was an impossible dream come true: not only did Talarico win the Texas Senate seat, but all state administrative offices, from the Governor on down, went to Democrats. And it wasn't close. Forecast to be at best undecided well into the morning, the Senate and governorship were settled by 10 p.m. Texas time.

Among the seats that Democrats picked up to take the majority in the Senate were the highly improbable South Carolina, Ohio, Iowa; and Kansas--which hadn't sent a D to the Senate since 1932.

The Democrats have 54 seats as of this writing, including Maine and Michigan, with one more likely (Alaska) and maybe even another (Mississippi.) They easily attained the House majority (they needed four more seats; they got 42.) But the political significance goes beyond the numbers. Though some winning candidates were well known in their states, few were the same old faces nationally. They were from new generations. And in the year that was supposed to see the demise of diversity, they included historic achievements for black and Native women, among others.

The results suggest a massive change in American politics. But they will even more tangibly lead to a change in governance. There are things the Congress can do that don't require the President's signature. Perhaps more profoundly, policies will change in states. ICE prisons for one thing will no longer be welcome in Texas. Changes in state legislatures will also be very important. But just the fact of Democratic governors in most major states now will be a formidable safeguard against federal attempts to interfere with elections and their results.

There's another level to all this. For those who turned in early, they went to bed in a country that rewarded some of the most morally despicable and degenerate (though wealthy) individuals with power and high office. They will wake up to a country rid of a great many of them. Except those, of course, in the White House and the Chaos administration. And these results may encourage some of them to cash in their chips and go away. Even their billionaire and corporate enablers may need to recalibrate.

The future is likely to present great difficulties and even crisis. But Americans spoke with something close to a single voice today, against the excesses of Boss Chaos, his minions and enablers. It will take longer to sort out the full meaning of this rising than it took for it to happen. But we're a better country tonight.

Into The Weekend Before

2026-10-31T01:02:35.019-07:00

Nothing much that I've seen--in the latest polling or reputable reporting--suggests there's been any change in momentum. If anything, the opposite--the anti-Republican momentum is strengthening.

Beyond the head-to-head Senate poll numbers, which typically show increased leads for Dems or the Dem getting closer or tied--there are a few other polling indications that caught my eye. The generic preference (R or D) continues to be exceptionally strong for Dems, in the 9 to 10 point range. One pollster however added House candidate names, and the D generic lead went up to 12 points. It is this high number, together with preference polls, that increases confidence that Dem candidates can win in states that went R for prez by 10 points or more in 2024. Which is why Senate seats in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, South Carolina and Mississippi are also in play--together with other factors like candidate quality.

The other indicator that supports something I cited last time--that "low information" voters actually disapprove of Chaos more than those who correctly answered key questions. This data point analysis concludes that Democratic low propensity voters (voters who don't usually vote) are voting early at a much higher rate than their Republican-registered counterparts (in states where parties are identified by official data.)

So even considering the usual caveats about the unknowns of early voting v. election day etc. as well as polling error, the big picture continues to look better and better for Democrats to take the House and the Senate, plus an eventual majority of governorships, and so on down the line. That doesn't mean however that in individual races, Democrats aren't undermining themselves, as usual. The Michigan Senate campaign and to a lesser extent the Texas Senate campaign are being marred by continued bad blood between primary opponents, threatening party solidarity. The Alaska Senate campaign is getting unpleasant publicity over a late October story asserting that members of the Democrat Mary Peltola campaign recruited an unknown with the same name as the Republican incumbent, and he got on the ballot.

How much will these matter? Polls suggest that most voters have made up their minds--and many millions have already voted. In themselves these stories are unlikely to matter. Every indicator says that most voters are voting with big issues in mind, especially ones that affect their survival. But the difference in these potentially close elections is going to be who shows up to vote and who does not. Anything that dampens Democratic turnout or juices Republican turnout can have effects. Though it is possible, it still seems unlikely to me that they will change the outcome, and all three Democrats will win. But Alaska is interesting also for other reasons.

Snapshot: Alaska

Alaska is still America's frontier. Little polling, and even less reporting, emerges from its great distances and typically small communities. In the past, Alaska has been as reliable an R in presidential elections as Hawaii has been a D. But in the latest polls, the Democratic candidate for governor is substantially ahead, and the Democratic candidate for the Senate--Mary Peltola--is slightly ahead. If all that plays out, something is happening which might turn out to be realignment, or the product of a few specific politicians, or a mix of both.

Lisa Murkowski is the better known Senator from Alaska, often paired with Susan Collins as the more independent Republicans in the Senate--and she isn't up for reelection this year. She lost a Republican primary in 2010 to a Tea Party candidate but ran as a write-in, and won. She's been reelected twice since.

She's made news twice in the past week or so. When the minions of Boss Chaos went to court requesting that the Alaska election results be set aside if Mary Peltola won, because of the presence of two Dan Sullivans on the ballot (though one is clearly marked as the Republican incumbent, and the other ain't), Murkowski criticized the DOJ suit. This prompted Boss Chaos to fulminate in one of his endless vicious posts that she is a disgrace and the worst R Senator etc. Soon after that, Murkowski endorsed the Democratic candidate for governor of Alaska.

At that point, some speculated that Murkowski might finally make the jump from R to D. It was noted that she is personal friends with Mary Peltola, and their political positions are similar. She has clearly been uncomfortable with Chaos. She did vote for the notorious Big Ugly Bill after getting concessions for Alaska to continue wind and solar projects. Shortly after the vote, Boss Chaos cancelled those projects anyway.

Then came the New York Times story, and Murkowski then joined in the R chorus demanding investigations of this somewhat novel but hardly unprecedented ballot stacking ploy. (She also demanded that Peltola address the issue, and Peltola went on record saying she knew nothing about it.) It seems the source--and perhaps the architect of it--was a former staffer who was recently fired.

But this has put a crimp in the speculation (and probably in a Peltola endorsement), at least for now. However one reason Murkowski has cited for staying R is fear of retribution from Boss Chaos. If this election goes as predicted, his power will be greatly diminished. If the Ds need one more Senator for a majority--either because they underperformed in the election, or the much rumored defection by a certain Pennsylvania Democratic Senator occurs--she would herself be in a powerful position.

Into the Week Before

2026-10-26T01:46:21.512-07:00

A few quantitative tidbits:

President's job approval rating by low information voters who backed Boss Chaos in 2024 (by 6 points): minus 27%

Approval rating by more informed voters who backed Kamala Harris (by 1%): minus 24%

According to at least two polls, the top campaign issue in 2026: corruption.

Top campaign issue for self-described undecided voters: inflation

Percentage of Americans who agree that Boss Chaos is "a dangerous dictator whose power should be limited before he destroys American democracy": 58%

Percentage who believe Chaos will not accept outcome of election: 70%

Percentage drop in new job creation this year in revised figures versus original announcements: 90%

Percentage increase in price of crude oil since Chaos started Iran war: 60%

Snapshot: Maine

Nights are getting colder in Maine as October ends. Home heating oil prices there have risen 74% this year. For at least some, it costs $1800 to fill their home heating oil tank, and it often takes filling it more than once in a winter. The state agency that helps with heating oil costs has announced that the demand is already so high, they won't have enough to help everyone who needs it. Parts of Maine get cold enough to kill, and this winter is expected to be very cold.

Maine has voted for a Democrat for President, sometimes (as in 2020) the same year that they vote for a Republican for Senate. They had a tradition of independent-minded Republican Senators (often women), including the current Senator Susan Collins. But Sarah Longwell's focus groups of Mainers who voted for Kamala Harris and in the past for Susan Collins, are reluctantly done with her.

Maine is suffering from the costs of home heating oil resulting from the foolish war against Iran, and from the tariffs, especially with the country right over what was known for years as the longest undefended border in the world, their friends in Canada. ICE shot an innocent person in Maine just months ago. People are angry.

President Obama channeled this sentiment in his campaign speech in Ohio: "After two years of chaos and cruelty and corruption and incompetence, the likes of which we have not seen in the modern era, you get a chance to say, ‘Enough is enough.'” Maine seems poised to take this opportunity.

Susan Collins is perceived as no longer effectively independent, and too much in line with Chaos. That combined with her age looks like it will lead to her mandatory retirement. If these voters represent others who split tickets in the past, she can't get the number of Democrats she needs to win. She is likely the last of that Maine institution, the principled independent Republican.

There wasn't much enthusiasm expressed in this group for the Democratic candidate Troy Jackson. But he surprised many (including--one assumes--Susan Collins) by doing well in the debates, except for a moment of un-Maine rudeness towards Collins. Well enough to assure voters they wouldn't make a terrible mistake in voting for him.

Snapshot: the Midwest

Apart from the formerly "Blue Wall" states of the upper Midwest, the expanse that used to be called the Corn Belt has been heavily Republican for a generation or more. But winters get cold there, too. The cost of heating homes in the winter, plus fuel use particular to farm economies, are causing hardship and suffering. Each of the states of Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska are hit by particular aspects of the tariffs as well. Iowa is suffering from high rates of cancers attributed to chemicals in agricultural runoff. Kansas farms suffer from labor shortages caused by ICE rampages. Nebraska is upset by the Chaos betrayal of importing beef to compete with theirs. All of these are issues working against Republicans.

Democrats in Iowa have two superior candidates: Rob Sand for governor and Josh Turek for Senate. Right now Sand is considered likely to be elected, with Turek running behind a couple of points in the polls. Kansas Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton is said to be running even in his race so far. In Nebraska, Independent candidate Dan Osborn is often polling even with the incumbent Senator. If the prevailing mood of the electorate is what it seems to be--anger at what Chaos has done--then these candidates should benefit from the last week, and so have a very good chance.

Ohio has been reliably Republican since the Obama presidency. But the state did elect Democrat Sherrod Brown to the Senate before turning him out in 2024. Now they may elect him again. Data center incursions have emerged as the surprise issue of 2026, especially in rural states and rural areas of states like Ohio, where they are a particular issue in this race. Until this past week, it seemed that Brown might help bring Democrat Amy Acton into the governorship. But after the huge backfire of a despicable campaign ad by the GOP candidate, it may be the other way around: Acton may help Brown's election.

The upper Midwest of blue and purple states is paradoxically making Democrats nervous. The Minnesota Senate race is polling closer than it should, but I find it hard to believe that the state that beat back an ICE invasion will elect a Republican in the end. In Michigan, the test may be whether enough demagogic prejudice against a Muslim will prevail against an articulate but controversial candidate in a state that is not pleased with Chaos at all.

Snapshot: Texas and Florida

These are the backbone of the MAGA Republican party, which at this point is the GOP heart and soul. In Florida, Democrat David Jolly may be poised to take the governorship, and the Senate race is uncomfortably close for Republicans in the polls. In Texas, Senate candidate James Talarico is running an excellent campaign, and seems to be gaining support every day. Enthusiasm is high, as is early voter turnout in Democratic areas. Can he win some rural votes (seems likely) while a lot of GOPers stay home? The vibes are good. I think he's going to win, and it will be earthshaking. He may even bring with him a Democrat for governor.

Snapshot: the South

Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia has been the star of this campaign so far, and Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper has more quietly dominated polls in North Carolina. Both are expected to win big.

With one week to go, Democratic candidates for the Senate are shockingly close in the polls in South Carolina and Mississippi. Black turnout so far is up in Texas and in these southern states. Both of these states are possible, and I'd bet in particular on South Carolina. Apart from anti-Chaos anger, these and other races benefit by the Democrats having good candidates, and the Republicans having ineffective or--as in Ken Paxton in Texas--candidates so corrupt and repugnant that not even the Bush family can hold their noses and vote for them.

The outcomes in the South in particular may depend on momentum continuing to build in this final week. But many of these races depend on who votes and who doesn't. That's why Boss Chaos went to Mississippi and other deep Red states, attempting to goose depressed Republicans into voting. His venues have not been full. His bullshit works until it doesn't.

Election Dynamics: Questioning the Polls

2026-10-20T00:15:02.333-07:00

[Above: No Kings Day Saturday in my old hometown of Greensburg, Pa., which made the Rachel Maddow Show on Monday.]

The preference polls for the ongoing election that ends November 3 are still consistently favoring Democrats over Republicans. So naturally there have recently been a spate of articles questioning their accuracy. To be sure, most of these articles quote the same Republican pollster, who at first gave statistical answers but now is claiming that those polls are purposely misleading.

Of course there are reasons to doubt their accuracy. Polls have been in trouble since the Internet era began, because nobody knew how to reliably reach people anymore, when they no longer just grabbed the phone off the wall when it rang and answered it. Add to that the more recent trend of Republicans disproportionately refusing to answer pollster questions, or even just lie.

So polls using various mathematical operations to weight the polls, usually adding to Republican numbers. Which makes the polls inherently inaccurate, except I suppose when they are accidentally correct. But in which direction are they inaccurate? NBC's Chuck Todd thinks they may be underestimating the Democratic wave as easily as overestimating it. Others point out that the weighting of Texas responses in two big recent polls was highly favorable to Republicans.

We were badly burned by polls and the rhetoric around the preference polls in 2016 and 2024, and even in 2020 they didn't accurately reflect Republican strength. So of course we don't want to get fooled again.

But even if not entirely accurate, polls can be indicative. And they aren't the only indicators. There's reporting (on voter enthusiasm, for example), and there's follow the money. "If Democrats don't believe the polls," said Democratic operative Dan Pfeiffer, "clearly Republicans do. Follow the money." The Rs are spending money where they shouldn't have to.

Polls can be compared with polls from other midterm elections. The two key indicators usually cited are the President's approval--particularly the disapproval numbers, and especially the strongly disapprove-- and the generic ballot of Ds vs. Rs. Several of the most recent major polls put disapproval at well over 60%, and strong disapproval above 50%. His approval is in the low 30 percent range, and has been falling. Historically, those suggest a bloodbath.

The generic ballot favors Ds by 8 to 12 points in these polls. The Gallup Poll question, "Which party would do a better job?" called the "trust question" has "an almost perfect track record" of predicting outcomes. The latest Gallup poll has Dems up by 11 points, 44% to 33%.

Then there are normal trends, the ups and downs in the polls. According to those, the Rs should be gaining in at least the early autumn. Instead their numbers are getting worse, and more and more races are moving towards the Ds. Historically, there is one move left--in the last week, and in recent years, the last weekend, before election day. There seems to be no reason for it to move towards the Rs, except perhaps in very deep red states where the trans ads can sway MAGA types, or perhaps a gaffe or an ad (lots of AI slop is coming) hits. But nothing has worked for them so far. And there seem to be reasons for the numbers to move the other way.

For example in South Carolina, where Chaos handpicked the Senate nominee, the sister of the late Senator Lindsay Graham. One of the few pieces of legislation Congress passed recently--just before they all left town, many heading for end-of-the-world expensive partying in Europe--was a package of sanctions against Russia in honor of L. Graham. Chaos, after apparently getting pieces of Russian fossil fuel companies for his family and cronies, is trying to stop sanctions, including those he just signed into law. The reaction to this in South Carolina has not yet shown up in polls.

There's plenty of publicity about how Republicans are far outspending Dems in campaign ads, particularly in newspapers and TV outlets where all that money is going. But how many ads get any attention when there are too many? How many voters are still persuadable? The polls haven't changed much in months, except to get worse for Rs.

Then there are the candidates. Especially in places where they expected no real opposition, Rs nominated lazy and corrupt candidates at best, and at worst criminal and psychopathic ones, though loyal to Boss Chaos. Ds not only more often nominated superior candidates but some who can change the party from within, and perhaps the country.

Then there is the electorate. The No Kings demonstrations over the past few years, plus hundreds if not thousands of other focused local protests, show a large galvanized number. The polls and reporting showed much greater enthusiasm for voting against Boss Chaos, which is already reflected in early voting numbers. Participation everywhere is higher than ever. This past Saturday No Kings day was focused on people actually voting that day, where possible. (And what a contrast with demonstrations in France the same day.)

Polls matched against past polls show this enthusiasm to vote among Dems and this broad opposition to Chaos in categories like Latins, young people and Independents. James Carville predicts a huge increase in black turnout, especially in the South.

Moreover, the attempts by Rs to stack the deck aren't working so well. Re-districting actually weakened many of their safe districts, so they have even more vulnerable House seats. Some states--notably Texas--tried to discourage turnout by severely cutting down the number of polling places in selected areas. In Greensburo, North Carolina, which closed polling places near college campuses, students from several colleges marched together to the nearest polling place, 45 minutes away, and cast their votes. In fact the rise in early voting by 40 to 60+ percent may be partly in response to talk of Boss Chaos trying to disrupt voting on election day.

Everyone expects more attempts to disrupt the election or cancel results. But all of that is more of a problem in a wave election. These kinds of attempted manipulations can work in a close election, but they can be overwhelmed by large margins and widespread victories.

[Above: Eureka, CA No Kings Saturday]

The most obvious reason for believing that Ds are winning is the condition of the country, and the number of voters who are being really really hurt by Chaos actions and policies. (In a recent survey 82% of respondents said their personal finances have become worse in the past year.) There has never been an election in which the in-party is defending high inflation, soaring federal spending and debt, economic damage from high tariffs, alarm at blatant prejudice and cruelty, widespread revulsion in response to widespread corruption, a complete loss of confidence in Chaos promises, and a very expensive war that nobody wants. Nor has there ever been a president more obviously demented.

Yes, we are only two years past an election where an apparent majority of voters drank the same old Kool Aid again. But Norman Mailer used to say something about some plastic stuff--that it looks perfectly okay until it suddenly shatters.

It's possible that polls and analysts are underestimating little issues that can override the big concerns in specific elections. But there's no evidence of that yet. In fact, if the polls are underestimating the D Wave, or there is a last minute move further towards Democratic candidates (and a marked tendency for R voters to stay home), then close races go to the D side. (Sarah Longwell looks at percentage numbers above 50% in late polls--those candidates usually win. A recent poll put James Talarico at 52% in Texas, with almost no undecideds.)

In particular there are a number of states electing a governor and a Senator, with one or the other the polls say is more likely to win. A last minute movement could mean they both win. The US Senate is the most important, with the House next, but state houses and state legislatures can also be very important to a deeper and longer change.

Today!

2026-10-17T01:43:05.032-07:00

This Saturday

2026-10-14T21:32:50.888-07:00

People Get Ready

2026-10-08T22:37:48.726-07:00

Almost as impressive as the polls which show (in numbers and in answers to questions) that the electorate no longer buys the Chaotic bullshit, and the persistent local protests on issues that are being seen with clarity, is the evidence of skilled and widespread preparations being made to counter any Chaos efforts to subvert the elections and undermine the votes any more than they already have. The theme of all of these might well be: won't get fooled again.

Several national organizations as well as lawyers and election officials in key localities have organized, war gamed and prepared legal challenges to any Chaos attempts to interfere with voters and voting on the last day of this election, as well as before and long after.

Even more organizations on every level are involved in getting out the vote and making sure the votes are counted. Today the Interfaith Alliance officially launched its The Vote is Sacred bus tour, beginning in Omaha and proceeding east to Maine, then south and west to Texas, Arizona and southern California. (It actually already had events in Iowa.) At every stop they have events in cooperation with local organizations, especially churches and faith groups but also university and civil society organizations, to get out the vote (and in some places where voting has begun, to do it on the spot), as well as to train volunteers to meet threats to voting.

They bring attention to local efforts where there are the greatest threats to voting, as a moral issue. This is truly an interfaith organization--not just an amalgamation of Protestant sects with a few token Catholics and Jews, but a group that includes Muslims, Sikhs and other representatives of religions and traditions practiced by voters in places they will visit on this tour. And when this organization uses the word "sacred," they mean it.

The day before, five Members of Congress participated in a shadow hearing to explore ways in which Chaos minions may try to cheat. Even though it is impractical if not impossible for them to intervene at every polling place, and even though early voting and voting by mail banks a lot of votes before the final election day, many still expect some spot interventions at key precincts, a lot of propaganda and some attempts to use the Injustice Department and other agencies to challenge or confiscate votes, or later on to refuse to accept results.

But they won't have the element of surprise, and they won't have more than a small minority that won't see through their efforts to cheat. Still, the more people who are aware of what might happen, who vote early and see their votes counted, and know how to overcome these efforts that threaten the basis of the American system, the better. "People get ready, there's a train a-coming."

Winter Is Coming

2026-10-03T02:06:47.176-07:00

We moved from Pittsburgh to Arcata, CA in the fall of 1996. We knew that wet weather prevailed in the winter months especially (though statistically, Arcata got about as much annual sunshine as Pittsburgh.) At first the late September and October weather was wonderful, with a characteristic combination of cool air and warm sun. But then the rains came in the annual winter rainy season, with storms particularly at the end of December and into January. Sheets of persistent hard rain, blasts of wind, flooding streets.

The rain was even more pronounced the following winter. Several small towns to our south were flooded and buried under mud and debris sliding down denuded mountains. One town was practically wiped out. We bought rain parkas that covered us from the top of our heads down to our shoes. Mine was black--Margaret said I looked like Darth Vader. Hers was red--I called her Gumby. We figured that's what winters were like here.

What we didn't figure, or know, is that we'd arrived in time for an unusually large El Nino, which peaked that second winter of 97-98. We've had rainy winters since, but never like that--never with those persistent downpours and frequent storms.

Now ever since mid-summer we've been warned that an even stronger El Nino is coming this winter--the most powerful in modern times-- which will continue to influence our weather well into the summer. Our state senator held an online seminar in July, and the participating government meteorologist, who started out all objective and technical, was clearly anxious as it went on, and said he did not know what to expect exactly, but he feared we'd experience effects we'd never seen before.

This El Nino is also arriving at the same time as two other ocean cycles would be raising sea levels even in a normal year, but are being supercharged by this monster El Nino. One of these is something called the Kelvin Wave, which is due to arrive along the California coast any day now. Predictions of immediate sea level rise have varied from 6 inches to two feet. These levels will stay that way for months. That's something few if any of us has seen, and nobody seems to know exactly what the outcomes will be. In our area, residents of low-lying areas are urged to prepare and even attend training sessions. Together with El Nino and whatever storms it may bring, California may experience the highest sea levels it has ever recorded.

Southern California is already being affected, with beachfront property threatened or destroyed. (The photo above is from southern CA, as are the photos below.) The San Francisco Bay Area is considered particularly vulnerable to quick sea level rise. Governor Newsom issued a disaster declaration to free up funds for localities to prepare for flooding threats.

Up here in the far rural north of the state, we don't often get included in the major media forecasts. We may get lots of rain and storms with high winds--worse even perhaps than 97-98-- which could lead to flooding and damaging slides. We live only a mile or two from the ocean but we're on fairly high ground, so our most likely problems would be associated with inaccessible roads and long power outages. El Nino is depressing hurricanes in the Atlantic but tropical storms (called hurricanes or typhoons, depending where in the Pacific they originate) are already lining up in the Pacific, with unknown consequences for the California coast.

However this very rainy winter is not guaranteed here. Depending on where in the Pacific the El Nino is centered, it might mean the rain bypasses us, and so we might eventually face heightened risk of forest fires. None of this is likely to be as severe as the El Nino consequences in places like Africa which are likely to be stricken with suffocating heat and drought. Millions died there the last El Nino that was closest to the unprecedented strength of this one, and it is already predicted that nearly a half million people will die this time.

Other parts of this country are likely to suffer other consequences, and perhaps already are. Another factor that is unlikely to help is the depleted ability of the federal government to act, including the sharp decline in skilled personnel in the agencies responsible for predicting weather and monitoring climate and its complex constituents, willfully and unnecessarily created by the Chaos administration.

But there is another sobering element to this El Nino and its effects. Normally, however bad the effects and however many months they last, the storm can be weathered--when it's over, it's over. But probably not this time. Sea level rise is likely to erode beaches to an unknown extent. Some of that beachfront is disappearing into the ocean. It's long been predicted that the climate crisis will literally erase all the beaches of the world in the coming decades. We may get a taste of that this year--perhaps this month. And even if sea levels subside this time, there is unlikely to be time enough for the beaches to recover completely. We're just getting a jump start on the future.

Similarly, El Nino is predicted to make for an even hotter summer in many places, even though several months this past summer broke temperature records, including global records. Some climatologists say it will be a preview of what a normal summer is likely to be a decade from now.

Other parts of the country are being warned of other El Nino consequences this winter, including polar vortex cold in the deep south (some of that already on its way into the Midwest.) Possibly one blessing of this sneak preview is information that may lead to better ability to predict consequences in specific places, so they can prepare better for the climate distortion future, now fast upon us.

The Artificial Economy

2026-09-28T02:08:29.081-07:00

The corporate build-up to fuel artificial intelligence is immense, especially in proportion to the rest of the American economy and in terms of historical perspective. The numbers in a recent Wall Street Journal piece, especially as interpreted by Josh Marshall at TPM, are pretty scary.

WSJ contends that the annual infrastructure spending for AI (mostly data centers) as a percentage of the Gross National Product is higher than it was for the building of the railroads in the 19th century, and twice as high as for the largest infrastructure project of my lifetime, the federal highway program of the 1950s into the 1970s.

"The AI build-out is on track to become the biggest economic bet in U.S. history, dwarfing the investments made to fund other huge U.S. infrastructure projects such as the railroads, the highway system and the plumbing for the internet," said WSJ.

Meanwhile, writes Marshall: "And by many measures the entire economy is now dominated by AI spending. Not only is the non-AI economy doing pretty poorly, at least showing less spending than before. But to a great degree that’s because AI spending is crowded out other spending and driving up prices. (If you’ve tried to buy a computer or computer memory recently you knows this.)"

History shows there was a lot of speculation and some investment bubbles involved in the railroads etc. but I think AI is more speculative (in several senses) and more like investment bubbles of the recent past than, say, building highways. Everybody knew what highways were for. Nobody is really sure what AI is for. Everybody knew that highways were going to work--they were better roads for the existing technology of motor vehicles. Nobody knows if AI is going to work, at least for the intended purposes that are supposed to lead to somebody making lots of money.

According to the Atlantic, AI linked firms account for 36% of the stock market valuation, a huge proportion. But there are no actual profits in sight, and as the bubble grows, the extent of profits needed approach infinity. "No less an authority than Sam Altman is arguing that we are in an AI bubble. The International Monetary Fund is citing it as a significant risk to financial stability and warning about what might happen when it bursts: diminished investment, tighter credit, reduced consumption, disrupted trade flows."

But while this boom is stealing resources and raising prices throughout the economy, two enormous potential barriers have suddenly appeared. There is the rogue abilities and actions of several advanced AI programs that are scaring even the people who develop them, so much so that they are calling for limits. And there is the suddenly important opposition to this building of immense data centers out there in the electorate just weeks before elections.

Moreover this opposition is just about the only issue that is bringing America together. There is no ideological or political split--all kinds of people in every circumstance and every state are making their opposition known to local governments, media and focus groups. Some races, like the Senate race in Ohio, may turn on how powerful this movement turns out to be.

If the AI boom simply slows down, it may eventually be good for the economy. But that's not how things usually work in America these days. We've become an all or nothing nation, and the stock market can go that way too. For the sake of his personal investments and his family business, Boss Chaos is currently supporting AI expansion, but opposition is growing within his own party.

The stakes are much higher than they should be. The rule of Chaos has roiled the rest of the economy, so that almost all the economy's growth and health are due to AI investment. In other words, the US economy is artificially maintained by AI, which is an artificially unintelligent way to run a railroad.

You've Got Mail

2026-09-15T23:04:27.871-07:00

Democracy in America dodged another bullet for now with the Supreme Court decision stopping the Chaos attempt to mutilate voting- by- mail in the upcoming--and just about in progress--elections. For me one of the depressing details about this effort to use the Post Office to refuse to deliver ballots was the apparently eager connivance of the head of the Postal Service. The function of that office is one of the least political in any administration by definition. The job is to deliver everybody's mail. It's the Post Office, one of the earliest bedrock institutions in America.

True, the job of Postmaster General (a Cabinet post before restructuring in 1971) was also a prime patronage position for much of its history, as were the appointments to local post office leadership, though in recent decades the rule of Civil Service exams and hires just about erased that effect. But the job itself was never political. I repeat, the job was to see that everybody's mail was delivered, speedily and intact.

It's also true that individuals, businesses and the country as a whole don't depend on the Post Office as much as they did for most of our history. But it is still an important institution--including to businesses that sell by mail and delivery companies that use the US Postal Service for at least part of their process.

It is also one of those institutions and traditional functions that held this country together, no matter what else was happening. The confidence that we have a country at all has depended in part on confidence in the Post Office. It is possibly the most democratic of remaining national institutions. The job is to deliver everybody's mail. And though the cost of mailing has increased, especially in recent years, sending a letter through the mail remains one of the great bargains.

But there have been two trends threatening all federal institutions. Starving them of resources and threatening their existence has been high on the priorities of Republican administrations and politicians from Reagan onward. Hollowing out these institutions has been an ongoing process, both from congressional foolishness and cowardice, and administrative malpractice. Then came the Chaos blitzkrieg at the start of this presidential term in which important institutions like USAID and the National Science Foundation were suddenly obliterated completely, to a lot of consternation but in most cases no effective pushback.

The second element is the overt and absolutely shameless partisan politization of administrative agencies, mostly to ensure loyalty to Boss Chaos alone, but also to the hidden powers that use his name from the depths of the White House. Again, to lots of consternation--especially to those of us who can't believe any of this is legal and can't be stopped--but by now a humiliating fait accompli.

The result is a highly dangerous situation in which these institutions with crucial responsibilities and functions have become as flimsy as stage sets. We may be living in a fool's paradise at the moment, but the rot is underway, and real crises which are all but inevitable will reveal that unfortunately there is no there there anymore. They can't do anything. Even if they still know how, they don't have the resources or the dedication. And if you live in a blue state, forget them even trying.

There's already talk of more than normal post office bungling of mail-in ballots in this year's primaries, attributed to lack of training of postal employees on how to handle them. This sounds like a consequence of both factors: shrunken resources and partisan political management. The result is citizens' votes not being counted, the prime crime of this democracy.

I'm sure that the depressing effect of this Post Office controversy for me is the important role the postal system played in my life, not only as supporting what confidence I had in the fair functioning of American society working for everybody, but in the actual living of my life.

Writing cards for Christmas and birthdays, and then writing letters were rites of passage for us as children. My first letters were to my cousin Dick. I wrote lots of things at any early age but eventually writing a letter had those crucial next steps: addressing the envelope and affixing the stamp. This time my scribbles won't die in a tablet--they join the real world.

The mailman picks up that envelope with the letter inside, puts it with others into a truck, and afterwards it is transported in ways unknown to me from western Pennsylvania to the Eastern Shore of Maryland, where an unknown mailman takes it out of his pouch and delivers it to a mailbox at 305 Morris Avenue. I did all that, with just a 3 cent stamp.

In high school I also wrote letters to Washington, to (for example) the President of the United States, John F. Kennedy. And in the mail came an envelope addressed to me with the White House as return address. A nice man named Ralph Dungan typed me a note saying how much the President appreciated my support and my comments.

Among the sadder letters I wrote later was to Jacqueline Kennedy, and I got an engraved reply. I also wrote to support naming the proposed National Cultural Center after President Kennedy as a memorial, especially as he spoke so eloquently about the arts. I wasn't the only one, and that's how Washington got the Kennedy Center.

In between I wrote to the first Americans in space, enclosing a brief article about John Glenn's 3 orbits I wrote for the high school newspaper with a photo clipped and edited from Life Magazine of the three of them. Two wrote back, and Gus Grissom enclosed the article--but with his signature, plus those of Alan Shepard and John Glenn under their photo.

In college, letters were a lifeline: first, from college to home and friends back there, 900 miles away. Then in summers, from home to fellow students, trying to keep my new self alive. And then, sending out manuscripts, dealing with rejection slips, corresponding with editors and receiving issues with my work in them--all through the mail.

Mail you got was something new in your life, and much of the time, for you alone. Anticipating the mail became a reflex, one that I still have. That anticipation was widely shared. When just about all the Internet did was email in the early 1990s, AOL (which was pretty much the only email for awhile) knew about that anticipation and took advantage of it by having your computer alert you with a happy voice: You've got mail!

The US mail was delivered in person. Even city people often knew their regular mail carrier. In our town we knew his name (and since he read our postcards, he knew about us.) We knew the postal employees at the counter in the dim hush inside the large brick post office with the high ceilings, the flight of cement steps and the tall white columns outside--it was the county's federal building, built in 1905 and doubled in size as a New Deal project in the 1930s.

Years later I picked up mail at a post office box at Central Square in Cambridge, Mass. Years after that I knew the postal employee at the window in the Squirrel Hill Post Office in Pittsburgh, with its Depression era murals depicting the history of the neighborhood. Even here in Arcata, once in awhile I am like Kurt Vonnegut who made deliberate trips to the post office line when strictly speaking he didn't need to-- just to be there, with others on this ritualistic task. Or I walk to a blue mailbox to mail the cards I still send, after addressing the envelopes and affixing the stamps.

So there you are: people and places, time and physical things, not the more efficient blankness of cyberspace. Maybe that's what makes the betrayal of the Post Office and its mythic as well as historic mission feel so personal.

The Power of Labor

2026-09-07T01:37:48.620-07:00

Historical precedence is always partial. No era is an exact copy of another. Still, many observers find precedence to this era in the Gilded Age of the late 19th century.

It too saw vast fortunes created by exploiting the applications of new technologies, and those fortunes wound up in the hands of very few, who came to be known as the Robber Barons. The gap between the very wealthy few and most Americans was huge, particularly the new industrial workers at the bottom. They were often immigrants.

But it was also in this time of virtually unchecked economic and political power for these robber barons, and desperate poverty for exploited workers, that the labor union movement in America took hold.

The first union members were beaten and killed by company thugs and the official police, both being paid by the same barons. They were thrown out of their homes and starved. They lost strikes more often than they won them for decades. But they persisted.

It was at the tail end of the Gilded Age that the federal holiday of Labor Day was first declared. By then (in 1894) 30 states had already designated their labor days. At first, the federal holiday only mandated that federal employees get the day off. It became a real holiday for actual workers deep into the 20th century (though probably a smaller proportion gets the day off now.)

Labor Day was in specific recognition of labor unions and the labor movement. For awhile, even in my lifetime, labor unions were a major political force, a power base somewhat balancing the power of corporate wealth. They helped bring about an era of a new middle class, and less of a wealth gap between the few at the top and everyone else. All that right wing nostalgia about life for ordinary people in the 1950s, when America was great--all that happened to a large degree because of what unions accomplished.

Though the membership is different now as well as much smaller, unions still have political force, though much diminished. In that regard it is interesting that a very recent Gallup poll showed that 47% of Americans surveyed said they want unions to have more influence than they do, a record high in this century.

Recently I've taken note of the number of mainstream politicians (Senator Jon Ossoff, Senate candidate James Talarico, for example), economist Paul Krugman and other public figures (actor Richard Gere, etc.) who have spoken plainly about the near total dominance of our political and economic systems by a very small number of billionaires, perhaps a half dozen. They face no organized countervailing force.

The long painful struggle for the power of labor unions to represent the interests of otherwise powerless workers involved members of my family and almost everyone I knew in western Pennsylvania. It is possible that the encampment of strike families thrown out of their company homes as shown in the photo above happened on the hill where I later grew up.

Many people back there are among those who seem to have forgotten this era and what it meant. Absent the big union picnics at Mount Odin and Idlewild and elsewhere (though they still happen in some places), this holiday has become like so many others--mostly about the purported bargains for products by companies without unions, some (especially but not exclusively abroad) using near-slave labor including children. While the companies that sell these products also use new technologies as well as old oppressions to exploit their workers as well as their customers. While the wealth divide grows deeper and deeper.

Stay Tuned

2026-09-04T00:13:56.497-07:00

If the appeal to the US Supreme Court made today by the Chaos administration succeeds, asking for a definitive ruling on the constitutionality of their attempts to use the US Postal Service to control who gets to vote in the upcoming elections, what is left of the Republic will be all but gone.

This Court could rule as early as next week.

The Disappearance of Reality

2026-08-29T01:12:45.696-07:00

Do you ever wonder why he gets away with it? Or even why he thinks he can get away with it?

Boss Chaos lies with every breath, even when the evidence he is lying is right in front of everyone's eyes. (Or is it?)

For instance, according to Chaos the US has won his war against Iran ("Mission Accomplished," he said this past week) and oil tankers are sailing happily through the Strait of Hormuz, which is completely open. The evidence against these is on par with the evidence against his contention that his poll numbers are soaring.

He started his first term in office the same way--he claimed his Inaugural crowd was bigger than Obama's, while a baffled press (many of whom were at both) looked at the photographs and were embarrassed for his press secretary, recently one of their own, who nevertheless kept asserting what everyone could see was not true.

Chaos never stops. Why does he get away with it? There are a couple of procedural answers. First, because the news media has gone numb on constantly correcting him. But most importantly for him, he counts on his supporters being low information voters and/or so cynical about actual news media information that they believe only him. He reinforces the lie by constant repetition, ignoring anyone who contradicts him. If he says it is so, it must be so. That faith may be a lot less widespread than it used to be, but it's still what he counts on.

Many others no longer concern themselves with whether his latest whopper is false, but take these statements as suggesting what he is going to do or not do, so they can act or react accordingly. Because he's the corrupt Boss backed up by a corrupt Supreme Court, what matters most is what reality is according to him, not what reality is.

But there is also something more profound going on, that Boss Chaos is taking advantage of, whether he knows it or not. It goes beyond the disappearance of the shared reality most of the country used to have, based on more or less trusted news media and institutions. True, an unhealthy proportion of the news media that at least tried to maintain integrity and objectivity has been severely wounded or utterly transformed into ideological tools. They also have fewer resources--so there are fewer reporters sending back images and accounts of for instance what's happening around Iran and the Strait, so the counter evidence is thin.

And some institutions (like Congress) have lost what credibility they had, while others (and this is very important) have been destroyed by Boss Chaos and his minions, for instance those that applied information gathering and expertise to data in areas of science, health, intelligence, the law and the environment.

But there's something larger still. I'll make two assertions briefly (which I may develop more fully in future posts) and suggest broad implications.

Both of these are related to the obvious sea change in contemporary life: the dominance of the digital domain, and its ongoing replacing of reality with digital fantasies.

1. The Disappearance of People

Contributing to the disappearance of reality is the disappearance of people, even if it is a real person on the other end of the phone.

Recently a truck belonging to AT&T backed into Margaret's car and caused some minor and mostly cosmetic damage. The driver apologized profusely, said it was his fault, and called it in to AT&T. Margaret contacted her insurance agent who tried to contact AT&T and their insurance company. But she was confronted with what confronts us all: an impenetrable wall of "digital assistants," of robots programmed for easy answers and evasion. Long waits--hours--to talk to a human, which direct the caller to another number that is an entrance to the same kind of endless loop.

Her insurance agent never did even get a phone number for anyone at AT&T that handled insurance on its vehicles. This is apparently not an isolated or unusual case, when big corporations and insurance are involved. But we see the same evasions everywhere. The hours of frustration necessary to cancel a digital service, the lack of customer service phone numbers or email addresses on web pages; in a word, the disappearance of people.

AT&T apparently has no face in our town. Except for a store selling phones and services, there is no physical AT&T office, let alone somebody at a front desk that can tell you who you need to talk to. I grew up in a small town--however frustrating the ultimate response, you always had someone you could talk to at the phone company, the electric or gas company, and everywhere else. There was a limit to how unresponsive they could be because they lived in the same community. You always knew somebody who worked there, or somebody whose cousin did. These days if you actually get to talk with a real person, they live in an unknown country remote from anything you know.

Even when we moved here in 1996 there were actual offices and real people. Not anymore.

It's also worth recalling that back when there was but one Phone Company, you interacted with real people (operators, they were called) for many years when making phone calls, and even after touch-tone phones etc. you could still speak to "directory assistance," the heirs of "Information." Once the Bell System was broken up and the road to dominance by a few huge companies began, the business became selling the phones you used to get for free, and that's apparently where the money went to pay people who talk to people.

(There are some compensatory changes, however. Margaret's insurance agent got that company to pay for repairs at a local body shop, where real people were very pleasant and helpful and efficient, and they all signed a card thanking her for her business. This also seems like a change.)

People still have people in their lives. But in necessary interactions with institutions, people have disappeared. And even in daily life, people are starting to disappear. Conversations are via texts and aps and social media. Those people need not even be real, and many of them are not. There's going to be more of that. Some people interact more with Alexa than actual humans. A.I. Alexas are here, as are persuasive AI agents, and soon enough they will be visible as well as heard (if they aren't already. I'll probably be the last to know.)

Prominent people appear on YouTube videos that are complete fabrications, or slop. They never said any of those things, but when you do a search for that person, these videos appear right alongside legitimate ones. Nothing on social media is trustworthy. Because real people are disappearing in the murk.

2. The Disappearance of Things

We live in a material society, that's the common wisdom--but do we? In the era of fast (and quickly disposable) fashion, are the clothes actually real? As garbage they certainly are--and they are a major problem. As clothes they are mostly plastic and quickly fall apart, they can't be repaired or altered even if there were tailor shops or sewing machines in every home, which there used to be.

They aren't things really--they are symbols, status symbols, statements, badges of belonging. But nobody cares about (or cares for) the fabric, the stitching, the durability. Same with shoes. Many wear running shoes or their equivalents, which are designed to be replaced every few months. But you can't actually replace them--the version you had is obsolete, there are fifteen new styles (even if they are all more or less the same as each other.)

But perhaps most important in this context are the things that used to carry what we now clump together as information, or data, or more often, as content. Physical books are replaced by digital content. Physical newspapers and magazines by online versions. Physical containers of recorded music (records, tapes, CDs) are replaced by digital access to ITunes and Spotify; physical containers of movies (tapes, DVDs, Blueray) are replaced by access to streaming services.

Granted that physical media that allowed people to take movies home are relatively recent, with recording music available longer, and books longest of all. And that they replaced to some extent the group experiences of concerts or home music making, movies at the movie house and a night at the theatre.

But physical media were things. They had existence. They were not off in some abstract cloud, controlled by corporate entities that change the rules of access or even deny it at their usually profit-driven whim. You bought it, it was yours, you kept it, and played it when you wanted to. (That was even true with the first digitalized music--which resided on your Ipod.)

You could see your records, touch your books, stack your movies. They were real. You could feel your newspaper or magazine, tear articles out of it, keep it or use it for something else. You could see other people reading from the same newspaper you were, even at the same time. You had that in common, even if you were not obsessing about it on social media.

Another great loss is letters. Letters are a deep part of our culture, and the keepers of humanity in history. Their loss will be profound. But their disappearance is a loss already. Physical letters that you can read many times, and many years later. That you see age. Like anything you read, you can perceive or appreciate something new when you read it years or decades later. But it is always a token, a physical thing with its own particularity--the paper, the writing itself; even the envelope with its postmark, addresses, stamp from that other time. Not emails, texts and instant messaging that disappear into the digital ether from which they came, that barely physically existed.

A lot of reality is what you can see and touch, hear and smell and taste. These are not only the sensations of reality, they are the ground of reality. Things. And their relationships to each other, and to us.

Now songs can be altered, movies reedited, scenes cut out, digital or audio books withdrawn or censored, news stories distorted without physical evidence, and offered as the real things. You have no say in this. No one can change a book on your shelf, but digits in the computer or the "cloud" or cyberspace--can be altered without a trace, or just disappeared.

I would argue that physical life itself is becoming abstracted. Consider the chaos of the so-called health industry. And while I'm not going to argue the pros and cons of cremation, it is statistically significant that as the proportion of cremations has increased, the instances of burial or ceremony have decreased. This is enormously significant, for even in the worst times, most human beings could count on one moment in their lives in which they were the center of ceremonial attention, and that would be their funeral. There is something about acknowledging the physical remains of the transition from life to death and memory that has been part of every human culture as far back as anyone knows, as well as the community behavior of some other animal species. It is among other things an acknowledgement of the physical continuity of a community.

Regarding the disappearance of physical media, it would seem that ceding great hunks of your intellectual, emotional and even personal--perhaps even moral--life to control by corporations run by billionaires is daunting enough. But physical thingness cannot be argued with--things are real. When things disappear, and everything moves into the nothingness called cyberspace, what is there to hold onto? How do you know what is real or true or what it says it is, and what is not?

When reality is so elusive, fantasy moves in. And the people who control the fantasies can manipulate what remains of reality, including life itself. That's what ultimately benefits people like Boss Chaos, and allows him to impose his fantasies on people who think they are reality and also those who know they are not. But these deadly fantasies thereby become major elements in shared reality with consequences for us all.

Empathy Update

2026-08-21T02:52:22.359-07:00

In a recent post, I cited a book by Frans De Waal that described research showing that behavior expressing empathy--or at least its building blocks--wasn't restricted to humans but was present in a range of primates and other mammals. That far from either a strictly human accomplishment or evolutionary aberration (depending on your bias), empathy is a natural tendency across species.

That book (The Age of Empathy) was published back in 2009. But just this week the New York Times featured a story about more recent research, focusing on the phenomenon of animals other than humans who express and even cultivate caring relationships with members of other species. Who, in their journalistic shorthand, treated them as pets.

As the caption to the above photo summarized: "Scientists examined 427 interspecies interactions across 88 primate species finding that every primate, regardless of species, held some behavior that could be linked to pet-keeping."

The story by Taylor Mitchell Brown was derived from an article published in the scientific journal Primates. As with earlier research on empathy, this behavior flies in the face of gene-centric evolutionary theory, or even strict versions of the laws of natural selection. But then, humans and their relationships with pets has always challenged the same simplistic laws. Brown quotes a scientist not involved in this new research: "Lavishing resources on members of other species we have no evolutionary stake in seems to make no evolutionary sense."

Yet we do, and apparently so do some chimps, gorillas, monkeys, etc. Every primate species studied showed some signs of caring for another animal, which included mice, marmoset, lizards, birds, a chicken, squirrels, even a small deer and yes--dogs. It happens in the wild as well as in captivity. Often the behavior was fleeting--grooming, for instance--but sometimes it was "outright adoption."

Perhaps as unexpected as the behavior of the keeper is the acquiescence of the "pet." Both sides understand the relationship, and a bond is established.

Once again, as in the research on empathy, the evidence has been out there for a long time, but given the professional bias of that prevailing interpretation of evolution as all against all, nobody was brave enough to study it. One scientist explained that the behavior was often observed but always ignored, because it was deemed inappropriate for peer-reviewed journals. "Someone might get a photograph and post it on social media," he said, "but you don't write a scientific paper about it."

That in this study, such kindness to other species was seen more often from females and juveniles but not so much among adult males--and adult male humans having dominated scientific paper writing as well as evolutionary theory--may have something to do with this learned ignorance.

Now somebody has written a scientific paper about it. Some of the scientists speculated on reasons for the behavior (loneliness was one) but surely a major conclusion is that it is behavior natural to at least primates, and perhaps other animals not studied yet. Further evidence that empathy doesn't decrease chances of survival, but may very well enhance it. As well as just contributing to making life worth living.

To The Tongue

2026-08-17T23:47:12.979-07:00

Whatever we say

we know there is another

language under this one

a word of it is always

there on the tip of you

unsayable and early

O you for whom

all the languages have been named

who have none of your own

naked sleeper in the cave

where you were born

dreamer without words

who first tasted

a verb of the world

you who speak as though

you could see

you have not forgotten

the serpent your ancestor

its fluttering inarticulate flame

of expectation

on the way to you

--W.S. Merwin

This poem is from Merwin's 2005 volume titled Present Company, in which every poem is addressed to its subject--which may be a person, a place, a body part. Some go far afield from there, but this one sticks with the tongue. It plays with a cliche (it's on the tip of my tongue) and the second meaning of tongue as a language, before finding the actual tongue as "naked sleeper in the cave where you were born;" in other words, the mouth. It plays with the tongue's resemblance to a snake, before bringing the various meanings together. Each reading of this short poem ignites new insights and delights. It's even a little impudent--like the Rolling Stones' logo above.

It's Not Over

2026-08-11T02:39:07.001-07:00

These days King Chaos is more chaos than king. But that hasn't even slowed down his efforts to be the dictator of the entire world.

He's turned federal Washington into piles of ruins. He threatens and interferes with states, cities and even small communities, while applying his will to the affairs of other countries, not to mention international sports organizations. His tactic always comes down to intimidation.

Right now he's back trying to intimidate a Greenland community into allowing oil drilling in an environmentally protected remote area by a Texas company allied with him. The company has gone so far as to land equipment without permission (as reported by the Guardian and Rachel Maddow, among others.) So far the local community, Greenland's people and the government of Denmark are resisting. King Chaos posted a photo of himself glowering over the Greenland landscape. He seems to want to force the issue: is this something Greenland and Denmark want to go to war about?

The minions of Chaos as well as his opportunistic allies are also relentlessly bullying everyone to, among other things, rewrite history and erase science to establish the kind of lies they favor. They started successfully with the military academies, where a student was advised not to write a paper on Japanese internment camps in World War II, and most recently bullied the National Academies of Sciences, Medicine and Engineering into censoring a chapter on climate science from a publication meant to inform judges of scientific background on issues they might encounter.

But the most serious efforts involve denying rights and, whenever possible, careers and employment, to black Americans, non-white immigrants, and women. The open cruelty is unparalleled in modern America, as black Americans are denied representation, innocent people are being unjustly imprisoned, killed and denied medical care in immigrant camps, children are being sent to American gulags without legal representation and are growing up there as if they were serial murderers, and immigrants on the economic edge are being driven into poverty.

These are the targets, and these efforts continue relentlessly. Dehumanizing everyone involved is an obvious strategy. The natural environment is another target (shrinking protected areas, permitting oil extraction on sensitive land--including the Boundary Waters-- and coastal areas) along with bribing companies to withdraw clean energy projects, as they just did here at Humboldt Bay. And the amount of taxpayer money being spent on these efforts is enormous.

A dictator with cratering support in his own country however really needs his secret police, and here matters are also progressing, despite visible resistance and setbacks. The enormous budgets given to the ICE police are paying dividends, especially in supporting efforts to police not only the prime targets of non-white immigrants etc. but Americans of all descriptions who might support them, and oppose ICE and the dictatorship of King Chaos.

Last week the Wall Street Journal reported: “In recent months, ICE has deployed a round-the-clock digital dragnet to scour the public internet—from Facebook to Instagram to X—for speech that could endanger the agency’s mission. The government has paid millions to private contractors to surface everything from potential threats to agents to activities that could disrupt ICE’s operations.”

“The program has ensnared U.S. citizens and activist groups that alert community members about ICE activity. Contractors prepare daily reports and dossiers on threat actors, identifying the poster’s name, location, date of birth, workplace, Social Security number, vehicle registration and criminal history when possible.”

The next day, Wired reported that ICE collected the DNA of nearly one million people last year, which will remain in federal custody presumably forever.

Update: Now it is reported by Axios among others that trigger-happy boldly racist ICE "plans to begin using electric shock gloves designed to cause pain and disrupt a person's ability to react."

End the Hush

2026-08-04T00:47:23.856-07:00

Every week it is the same story though the places may be different. This week it's extreme heat up to 120F in the US Southwest, tens of thousands dislocated by wildfires in Washington state, continuing devastation and heat in western Europe, and 90F at the edge of the Arctic. Scientists announce that global warming has sped up.

The media shows the photos which look like all the others, though the suffering caused by heat is hard to make into readable visuals. Among the stories about celebrities, box office records, sports trades and the Chaos out of Washington, there are some "lifestyle" pieces about how to get a better night's sleep when its continuously hot and humid.

But maybe more than that is actually going on, and besides having their brains driven to mushy dullness by hot weather, at least some people are seeing the big picture. And this picture could hardly be bigger.

From The Guardian:

"Research makes clear that global warming is making extreme weather events more frequent and severe. Yet the climate crisis has largely disappeared from the political agenda, with many Democrats who once described it as an existential threat now shying away from talking about it.

Now US activists are pushing back against this trend of “climate hushing”, arguing it is misguided. During the summer’s federal recess, during which lawmakers leave the nation’s capital to work directly within their home states or districts, demonstrators organized by the environmental advocacy coalition Climate Action Campaign are calling on representatives to put climate back on the political agenda."

The article continues:

"The activists’ campaign comes as new polling challenges the need for “climate hushing”, a trend that took off as some policy wonks argued that talking about global warming could alienate voters and distract from the message of affordability. July research from the University of California, Santa Barbara found that emphasizing climate change was neutral to beneficial for Democratic candidates, suggesting that talking more about the issue does not alienate voters and can even increase support in competitive races.

Though the Trump administration frequently derides climate policy as a “scam” and a “hoax”, polling indicates most Americans are not onboard with that view. Another July poll from Data for Progress found that 61% of likely voters believe extreme weather has become more frequent over the past five years, including nearly half of Republicans. And one month earlier, a Yale survey found that roughly two-thirds of Americans are worried about global warming."

The upcoming actions involve coalitions organized by the Climate Action Campaign and its director Margie Alt. The coalition includes Sierra Club and NAACP chapters, as well as Bill McKibben's organization of elders called Third Act. There are events both large and small slated for at least 20 states. The Guardian article concludes:

“Smart politicians will grab on this issue,” said McKibben. “There’s perhaps no other question where the gulf between Maga and the general public is higher.”

Alt said she saw climate-hushing as “the climate denial of 2026”. “I don’t think that ignoring the climate crisis is smart politics,” she said. “I think that it is dropping the ball on the biggest threat the US and the world faces.”

Dropping the ball is an almost insulting understatement. Climate hushing must end. Climate crisis leadership is the wave of the future, if there indeed is to be anything worthy of the name of future.

The Empathy Election?

2026-07-27T02:42:03.831-07:00

For the first two-thirds of his book The Age of Empathy, the late primatologist Frans De Waal describes the observations and experiments that show that contrary to the conventional wisdom both within and outside science, empathy and its various building blocks exist in primate species and even in other mammals. Empathy is not based wholly on human imaginative projection. It is emotional and above all it is physical.

De Waal goes step by step through the research, and late in the book summarizes the findings and implications: "...empathy is part of a heritage as ancient as the mammalian line. Empathy engages brain areas that are more than a hundred million years old. The capacity arose long ago with motor mimicry [imitation] and emotional contagion, after which evolution added layer after layer, until our ancestors not only felt what others felt, but understood what others might want or need.

The full capacity seems put together like a Russian doll. At its core is an automated process shared with a multitude of species, surrounded by outer layers that fine-tune its aim and reach. Not all species possess all layers: Only a few take another's perspective, something we are masters at. But even the most sophisticated layers of the doll normally remain firmly tied to its primal core."

The research De Waal cites (prominently including his own) is fairly new, because science has its own dogmas. Animals were studied for what was assumed they were all about: hierarchy, competition, aggression. All of that is real but incomplete. As De Waal writes in an earlier publication, scientists did not observe cooperation, conciliation or empathy among primates or other species because they weren't looking for them.

Even empathy in humans is derided in dogma that's prevailed for a century or two, which maintain that "selfish genes" rule ruthlessly, that survival depends on selfishness and dominance, and wishy-washy concepts like empathy are dangerous outgrowths of unrealistic feelings, mostly feminine and definitely low-T. Darwin's natural selection was immediately distorted into a personal survival of the fittest ethic.

It's no surprise how these dogmas became dogmas. They were promoted and supported by the people that most benefit from them: the overlords, the wealthy and powerful, who legitimize their own dominance by convincing underlings that this is the nature of things: this is nature red in tooth and class.

De Waal also goes into animal research that studies concepts of fairness and reciprocity. Even in some hierarchical primate social groups, these must be honored or the ruling alpha and high ranking females could lose power. There are behaviors that clearly aim to smooth out inequalities. Sharing and the rules of sharing are also important. De Waal links these concepts of fairness to empathy, which makes intuitive sense.

In the last third of this book, De Waal looks at current society, especially America, in light of these findings. In a section called "The Dark Side," he defines the psychopath as lacking in the feelings of empathy, who is interested only in defeating others. Though he wrote this in 2009, he describes leaders we recognize: "A lot of trouble in the world can be traced to people whose Russian doll is an empty shell....[T]hey are intellectually capable of adopting another's viewpoint without any of the accompanying feelings. They successfully fake empathy. Whenever they achieve power...their disdain for truth and morality allows them to manipulate others into carrying out their evil plans."

How are they successful? De Waal continues: "Their authority overrides the better judgment of underlings so that sometimes an entire nation, for example Germany in the previous century, falls for the cruel fantasies of a charismatic psychopath."

I would add another phenomenon we've seen and are seeing more: people who serve them and essentially use them for their own selfish ends--they want power for their perverse ideologies, and especially a piece of the corruption. But there is one more element that De Waal mentions, and it is important because it follows from his premise of natural empathy:

"What makes it so hard to wrap our heads around this mental disorder is that we can't imagine being immune to the suffering of others."

This could help account for the stunned response of so many Americans, and the denial indulged in by Chaos supporters, especially in the early months of this administration. Is it really possible that an American President could cut off aid that would essentially kill thousands if not millions of vulnerable children? Could that be true? Isn't there another explanation for the cruelty and injustice visited upon human beings--men, women and children--in this country, now vilified instead of described as immigrants and asylum-seekers? For people living in fear of being snatched off the streets or worse by a brutal and incompetent but heavily armed army protected by the highest federal authority? What about millions of people facing suddenly denied medical care, or the five million so far being cut from food stamps eligibility?

Chaos and his minions have used the time-tested method of what is today commonly called "othering" to short-circuit any sort of empathy or sense of unfairness regarding these victims of official cruelty. It is true that research shows that in primates as in humans, empathy and fairness are more easily extended to familiar members of one's own social group. So Chaos evokes racial and class prejudices as well as fear of the unknown stranger, to create what used to be called--and can still usefully be called--dehumanization.

But now nearly everyone knows someone who can no longer afford medical care, just as they don't have to look far to see victims of high prices from tariffs and war. Here and there the immigrant groups being targeted and vilified are well known in particular towns and cities. People depend on their work, and see them as contributors to their communities. That's why the Minneapolis response was so potent and had to be taken out of fickle public attention: because they said over and over that what they were doing was defending their neighbors. They enacted empathy, every single day.

By now perhaps more Americans are able to face the fact that the ruling party and the ruling class, led by Chaos, is "immune to the suffering of others." And if this November turns out to be a wave election, as it appears it well might, it may be because people vote, not just their particular self-interest, but to bring fairness back to the social order, to fight back against callous inequality, to revive the ethic summarized in the phrase "you'd do the same for me." This might be an empathy election.

That would be a triumph for democracy in several senses. For there is another implication of empathy as a natural state (not always dominant and not all the time, as De Waal describes) that he does not discuss directly. It has often been argued that without the authority of a religion or a king to transmit the moral laws given by a transcendent deity, there would be only cruelty, selfishness, chaos and immorality.

But if the sense of fairness, reciprocity and the constituents of empathy exist in nature, this cannot be so. There is no absolute need for artificial centers of authority in order for humans to behave ethically, fairly and with kindness and mercy. If ethics and what we call morality are rooted in nature, we don't absolutely require religious authority to impose them, let alone threaten us with eternal hellfire to force us to behave. We can always use models of behavior, guidance, inspiration and definition, and societies need some rules to fulfill the reciprocity and equity we recognize within. But empathy is part of who we are. We can assert that and express it in the sacred American ceremony of individuals voting.

Dreaming Up Daily Quote

2026-07-19T23:53:43.002-07:00

"In an age of conspiracism, some believe the truth is whatever gets the most views."

From a Politico article about MAGA's appetite for conspiracies being turned against itself. In context, this paragraph follows that line:

“If you are looking for a way to gather an audience or to build clout on the internet, one way to do that is to post a lot of provocative or shocking content, and conspiracy theories can certainly fill that void,” said Matthew Hannah, an associate professor of digital studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Lessons Without Plans

2026-07-16T14:32:54.599-07:00

Many places in the world--and more particularly, in the United States--are in the midst of harsh object lessons about the chain of climate disruption effects. At the moment, the combination of high heat and huge wildfires in Canada and northern Minnesota are causing dangerous air pollution in a number of northern US cities, which currently have the worst air quality in the world.

The forecast is for this swath of heat and pollution to inundate the mid-Atlantic states, including the hot air capital of the world, Washington.

The heat and deadly air usually affect the old and the young disproportionately, so the political impact is somewhat doubtful. But this time it is going beyond that, as Bloomberg News reports that the pollution is "emptying the streets" of major northeastern and upper Midwest cities. None of this is going to improve the image of government, either cowed into ignoring all this or ideologically rigid in its denial. Though often on the local and state level, officials are forced to deal with immediate crisis.

Bloomberg also reports that high heat has been straining the electrical grid, particularly in the Midwest. This is an area where the combination of high heat and high humidity has in the past come close to lethal levels. And I mean lethal--and without air conditioning due to grid failure, lethal to a lot of people, not just the poor.

With its high heat, Europe is having its own air conditioning crisis this summer, but at least there (as well as India and other vulnerable areas) the so-called plug-in solar devices are becoming popular. Yet in much of the United States they aren't even legal. They would power at least some cooling in homes, even if the grid were down.

Meanwhile, a cyclosporiasis outbreak related to produce is making headlines. An oped in USA Today by Dr. Tyler B. Evans notes that this outbreak is not due to a more virulent strain or anything particularly unusual. It is easily detectable in produce by ordinary food inspection. Unfortunately under the Chaos administration those inspections are fewer, due to lack of interest and personnel.

All of this--climate and health related alike-- is completely predictable, but instead of planning and paying attention, we will go through a cycle of suffering and political controversy before cooler heads actually effectuate remedies and safeguards. And in this climate (physical as well as cultural), cooler heads are at a premium.

Commentators wonder why the US electorate is so down on the political establishment, while political cynicism among officeholders has reached critical heights. Witness the lavish funding of ICE and the cynical excuses, while an entire federal police agency is utterly cynical and irresponsible, turning a blind eye to its thugs continuing to murder people (in Maine, which may have doomed Susan Collins chances no matter who the Democrats select, as well as Houston and Memphis), and a labor crisis is only beginning due to the demonization of immigrants. When will these lessons be learned?

Not Our Project

2026-07-10T02:19:03.736-07:00

On the Fourth of July weekend, we watched the hit movie Project Hail Mary on streaming. Like the novel by Andy Weir, it was engaging and entertaining. My impression is that his stories proceed in a long line of science fiction, back perhaps to Jules Verne but certainly to the first generations of American science fiction writers, many of them scientists or engineers, who built their stories around plausible technologies and current scientific theories or speculations: the so-called hard science fiction. Others like early Stanislaw Lem also appear in this lineage.

Weir also absorbs influences from science fiction movies and television, with references in this movie specifically to Star Trek, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Superman and E.T., for example. That lineage includes 1950s films that set the basic familiar framework of this story: a threat to life on earth is detected, governments of the Earth (perhaps after initial skepticism) or (in some cases) wealthy patrons find scientists to discover a solution and, with the help of the military or other action-oriented entity, go on a dangerous adventure to solve the problem, eliminate the danger and save the planet.

There is an additional lineage in science fiction in which the story is a metaphor for some current or just-identified social problem or danger from a technology itself. This goes back to H.G. Wells and certainly includes the aforementioned Star Trek. These stories may offer the same kind of adventure, but with perhaps more relevance to a current concern.

So part of my response to the Hail Mary movie was the same as my response to the book when I read it five years ago or so. Instead of constructing a story around the very real threat to the planet of climate distortion, Weir invented a fictional danger that in a way was kind of opposite: some unknown cosmic force was causing the sun to dim, so the planet would die from the cold.

The movie is an even better illustration of why he did it than the novel. It is dramatic--there is a visible antagonist (which in this case doesn't appear to be conscious or at least intentional), and solution requires very dramatic tech: a completely new and fabulously equipped spacecraft fueled by a new source (ironically by the very force that threatens the planet), on a space journey of unprecedented and otherwise impossible distance to another star, and eventually the cooperation of a previously unknown alien species, vaguely on the level of humans.

To achieve this--to identify the problem, marshal the resources and expertise, a powerful organization created and supported by the world's governments is apparently given vast power and a blank check. This does not seem to be an irrational response to an imminent threat to all life on Earth.

When watching the movie, however, and especially the portrayal of Eva Stratt, the head of this organization, as played by Sandra Huller, I could not help thinking of the organization created by the United Nations to confront climate distortion which came to be known as the Ministry for the Future in Kim Stanley Robinson's novel of that same title, and its chief, Mary Murphy. It is also a fictional response to a threat to life on Earth, which in this case happens to be very, very real.

Although there is dramatic action in KSR's novel which spreads over decades, there is no shiny spaceship or life and death drama in space confronting a phenomenon that can be seen in real time. KSR's novel may yet make a fine movie, but it will likely not be anything like Weir's.

Still, the idea that the world would unite and offer unlimited resources to keep the sun from dimming and freezing the Earth is rational and reasonable. Whether it is realistic is another question. Perhaps an easily identified "enemy" or cause, in the present, would make a difference. But that's clearly not happening anywhere near that extent in addressing climate distortion, and even the few commitments previously made--resulting from the Paris Accords, for example-- seem to be slowly but effectively fading.

Is there a Project Hail Mary applied to climate distortion possible in the real future? The reference is to the Hail Mary pass in football, a desperate heave at the end of the game, often covering 50 yards or more, into the end zone to possibly--but not likely--win the game. It's named after the Catholic prayer, and was first used in the 1930s to describe a play by the Catholic university of Notre Dame, at the time the most famous football team in America. The problem applying it to climate distortion is that there appears to be no single solution once it has taken hold, and addressing the causes of future distortion must begin years earlier. That and other complexities are dealt with admirably in KSR's novel. It requires focused and consistent commitment over time.

But in addressing the very real and growing threats to life on Earth posed by human-caused greenhouse gas pollution and related ecological attacks like ocean acidification and various threats that together could lead to mass extinction, which certainly threaten human civilization and life as we know it, if not-- in the worst situations--humanity itself...such focused and comprehensive commitment is not happening, let alone a powerful organization working on it. Even though this threat has been known for decades, and right now is as plain as the sunburn on your face.

We continue every day, even as the climate distortion underway becomes more obvious and obviously dangerous, to look away. We assign confronting them to our nightmares and as expressed in the major themes of futuristic stories in our time: dystopias and zombie apocalypse.

Take this Fourth of July. Held during an intense heat wave, the official Washington celebration of the 250th anniversary was centered in a faux state fair grounds, with tents surrounding a vast central area without shade or shelter on the mall. There was no apparent protection from the heat of even a normally hot Washington summer; apparently not even water. (One woman reported that the only water she could find was a concession selling a bottle of it for $5. But they'd actually run out of it--and still they refused to even refund her money.) As a result, hundreds were treated or evaluated for heat-related illness at area hospitals, even though the events were badly attended.

Officials were able to evacuate the grounds when the heat became too intense, and again when lightning and thunderstorms threatened, but when they tried again to cancel evening events on the mall because of an approaching lightning storm, they were countermanded by the White House so King Chaos could speak and the fireworks go off.

The fireworks themselves, billed as the largest display in history, created such a toxic environment that immediately afterwards, D.C. experienced "Code Red" air pollution--the worst of any major city in the world. The New York Times reported that the smoke from the fireworks was so thick during the last 30 minutes that the fireworks themselves were not visible in the sky. But the nearby lightning was.

It wasn't only Washington. Los Angeles also reported intense pollution expected from their fireworks. Moreover, the fireworks everywhere sent tons of CO2 and other greenhouse and noxious gases into the atmosphere, to otherwise harm the sustaining water and air as well as other animals and plants, as they attack the health of vulnerable humans. This at a time when other equally impressive kinds of displays by laser and drone are available.

A society that is serious about a long-term commitment to addressing the causes and effects of climate distortion would behave differently. We apparently are not such a society. This may be a small example, but it is a telling one. We're in a different movie altogether.

If You Can Keep It

2026-07-04T02:32:45.092-07:00

Of all the myths and legends and actual history surrounding the founding, one story comes most obviously to mind on this 250th anniversary. It comes from a more than decade after the Declaration, after the War for Independence, and after the initial Articles of Confederation. It comes from the Constitutional Convention.

Moments after the Convention came to final agreement and adjourned, the story goes that a woman stopped Benjamin Franklin as he was leaving the hall, and asked him what kind of government the nation would now have. Though the quotation is perhaps a more succinct version of his words, they are the ones that have come down to us:

"A Republic--if you can keep it."

It is the question of the moment, because the Republic currently is teetering. Whether the question is preserving or reviving or both, can we keep it is the guiding and crucial question of the future, beginning this year with the upcoming November elections.

No enemy, foreign or domestic, has done as much damage to the American Republic than elected and appointed officials of the federal government have done and continue to do this year, as well as last year. It turns out that norms we assumed were inviolable are easily ignored and violated with impunity. Our only constitutional protections it turns out are impeachments and elections.

I was working in Washington during the 200th anniversary, the Bicentennial in 1976. (I wrote about it here.) The integrity of the Republic had been tested just two years before, with the hearings in the House and Senate over the crimes of the Nixon administration known collectively as Watergate. Those painstaking hearings, broadcast to a huge audience over months, saw agonized Republicans and reluctant Democrats move towards Impeachment and conviction of President Nixon. In the end, no one tried to deny proven facts, or to repeatedly insist that Americans believe what politicians say and not what they could plainly see for themselves.

At nearly the same time the Vietnam War stumbled to its ignominious end, after so many revelations of official lies and skullduggery used to justify and manipulate it. Though the country immediately applied as much amnesia as possible to exploring the meanings of that war, some impressions led to change. With a new administration to be elected later that year, many looked forward to what in fact happened: professionalism and something akin to integrity became more of the norm in government and the military.

The mood in 1976 was a little punch drunk, but there was relief that the Republic had in the end acquitted itself well, and hope that lessons had been learned that would strengthen the Republic.

Recently the current vice-president commented that President Nixon's crimes in Watergate would be no more than a one day story today. That may be true, if only because the current occupant of the presidency commits an impeachable offense nearly every day, with a great many High Crimes included among the Misdemeanors. But there are few if any Republican statesmen in Congress, and by the end of this congress there will be none. Impeachments are no longer considered on their merits, but seen only as partisan attacks--except perhaps by the American people.

This past week the radical right majority of the Supreme Court subverted the law and the Constitution to award even more power to our mad king--indeed providing him (as a dissenting Justice wrote) power beyond that of actual kings.

Last week his own financial disclosure form showed the extent of Boss Chaos corruption--some two billion dollars in one year, at least. Members of his cabinet, staff and even the First Lady, have also enriched themselves. Influence peddling, inside information and insider trading, market manipulation and forms of coercion are either on the public record or strongly suspected. Not only has America never seen corruption on this scale, the amounts dwarf the stealings of leaders anywhere in the world.

They are robbing the economy and stealing from the nation and increasing the debt that future presidents must pay. They have damaged the federal government extensively and deeply, at a critical time, endangering the country and all of its people--except perhaps the billionaires who are absorbing its funds. Agencies of the federal government important to the safety of Americans and to stability and conscience in the world have been wrecked. Professionalism in government and the military is being punished and erased, replaced by incompetence, cowardice and corruption. Foreign relations have been wrecked, and bribery is openly practiced.

Thanks to Chaos privileging his wealthy cronies, millions of Americans are losing health care this month, putting further pressure on a health care system that could collapse. This on top of high grocery prices, gasoline and the cost of living generally. Except for the projects of favored billionaires, science and technology are being bled of federal support, which not only weakens the future but strands graduates in those fields looking to begin useful careers.

In 1976 President Gerald Ford marked the Bicentennial by attending the annual swearing in of new US citizens at Monticello on July 5, praising the role of immigration and making it a central symbol of the uniquely American identity.

In the summer of 2026, some 10,000 immigrants were arrested in five days, swelling the warehouse prisons where they may languish unseen indefinitely. This relentless attack on immigrants joins the systematic reversal of progress on racial justice of recent decades. The opening words of the Declaration being celebrated--all men are created equal--are no longer operational. Even the rights and status of women--the largest category of voters--are under direct attack.

On July 3, the New York Times headlined a story about the FBI sending more than 200 agents to "investigate" phantom fraud in 2020 elections in Georgia. (The photo at the top ran with that story.) This is another pathetic but nonetheless dangerous effort to undermine the upcoming elections. It also signals a dire threat to those elections: the substitution of repeated lies for easily demonstrable facts, well beyond the usual political mendacity.

That is a daily feature of the Chaos administration, and in the upcoming campaigns it is likely to be greatly augmented by AI generated lies, such as videos of Democrats saying things they never said. Perhaps financed by dark money, unattributed, with some likely the products of foreign operations that Chaos has welcomed into American elections.

There's more to be said about the celebrations themselves this year. But for now, 250 years into what is even more accurately called the American experiment, the Republic is in peril. Franklin's question is apropos to this moment.

The Way It Is

2026-06-30T00:03:03.948-07:00

There’s a thread you follow. It goes among

things that change. But it doesn’t change.

People wonder about what you are pursuing.

You have to explain about the thread.

But it is hard for others to see.

While you hold it you can’t get lost.

Tragedies happen; people get hurt

or die: and you suffer and get old.

Nothing you do can stop time’s unfolding.

You don’t ever let go of the thread.

--William Stafford

An Island Full of Geese and Stars

2026-06-27T00:26:19.692-07:00

The Sense of the Sleight-of-Hand Man

One's grand flights, one's Sunday baths,

One's tootings at the wedding of the soul

Occur as they occur. So bluish clouds

Occurred above the empty house and the leaves

Of the rhododendrons rattled their gold,

As if someone lived there. Such floods of white

Came bursting from the clouds. So the wind

Threw its contorted strength around the sky.

Could you have said the bluejay suddenly

Would swoop to earth? It is a wheel, the rays

Around the sun. The wheel survives the myths.

The fire eye in the clouds survives the gods.

To think of a dove with an eye of grenadine

And pines that are comets, so it occurs,

And a little island full of geese and stars:

It may be that the ignorant man, alone,

Has any chance to mate with life

That is the sensual, pearly spouse, the life

That is fluent in even the wintriest bronze.

--Wallace Stevens