Political Animal

"Teapot Tape" Recording

2012-01-26T17:24:00.006+13:00

There is nothing of import or indeed anything coming even close to embarrassing on the so-called "teapot tapes" recorded between John Banks and John Key before the 2011 election.

All whipped up my a brain-dead left media with a story to manufacture in the absence of any real scandal.

If you can hear it, have a listen.

Try not to go to sleep in the first minute.

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c Darren Rickard 2012

2011 Election result a big mandate for welfare reform

2011-11-28T08:57:00.000+13:00

The overwhelming win for John Key in the 2011 Election and the decimation of the vote for the Labour Party is a clear mandate for the party to follow through with their pre-election policies.

Asset sales, education and government department reform, just to name a few, should be just the start.

Perhaps the biggest mandate was for welfare reform as minister for welfare Paula Bennett was returned with a higher margin than in 2008.

In that seat she had competition from Carmel Sepeloni and the Labour Party's old ideas about extending welfare while National's policy of reforming welfare was given the big tick with Bennett's return.

This is an important overall as our welfare system is clearly unsustainable, especially at this time of economic uncertainty and need for fiscal restraint.

The National election win means the country can begin this reform and begin to turn around the problems that welfare has caused; crime, unemployment, child abuse and death and generations of people who have become dependent on the State (State = taxpayer of course).

The new Government has been given a mandate for reform of the Welfare State and if done correctly could be a turning point in a country saturated by dependence. A turning point that will turn dependence and hopelessness into independence and dare I say it a brighter future.

As the Labour Government of the 1930s introduced the welfare state and set this country on a downward slide to the present day, National has a chance to reverse the notion that your neighbour owes you a living and can pick your pockets at will, to an ingrained obligation that we are all responsible for ourselves and welfare should be in the hands of individuals and families and not the heavy hand of a failed state apparatus.

National have the mandate but do they have the will to put a line in the sand and turn this country into a truly great nation where its citizens look to themselves for inspiration instead of the State (again see your fellow taxpayer) and the next welfare check?

I will watch with much interest.

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C c c Darren Rickard 2011

2011 New Zealand Election Results

2011-11-27T07:13:00.002+13:00

Election Results -- Overall Status

Party	Party Votes	% Votes	Electorate Seats	List Seats	Total Seats

Polling Places Counted:	6,310 of 6,310 (100.0%)
Total Votes Counted:	2,014,334
Special Votes:	220,720
Less than 6 votes taken in Polling Places:	1,222
National Party	957,769	47.99	41	19	60
Labour Party	541,499	27.13	22	12	34
Green Party	211,931	10.62	0	13	13
New Zealand First Party	135,865	6.81	0	8	8
Māori Party	26,887	1.35	3	0	3
ACT New Zealand	21,446	1.07	1	0	1
Mana	19,898	1.00	1	0	1
United Future	12,159	0.61	1	0	1
Conservative Party	55,070	2.76	0	0	0
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party	9,516	0.48	0	0	0
Democrats for Social Credit	1,432	0.07	0	0	0
Libertarianz	1,405	0.07	0	0	0
Alliance	1,069	0.05	0	0	0
			69	52	121

Election Results -- Electorate Status

Electorate	Result	Leading Candidate	2nd Place	Margin

Electorate names in GREEN have Final results. Electorate names in ORANGE are still being counted. Click on electorate for details.
Auckland Central	100.0%	KAYE, Nikki (NAT)	ARDERN, Jacinda (LAB)	535
Bay of Plenty	100.0%	RYALL, Tony (NAT)	DEVOY-HEENA, Carol (LAB)	16,720
Botany	100.0%	ROSS, Jami-Lee (NAT)	WU, Chao-Fu (LAB)	10,054
Christchurch Central	100.0%	BURNS, Brendon (LAB)	WAGNER, Nicky (NAT)	0
Christchurch East	100.0%	DALZIEL, Lianne (LAB)	GILMORE, Aaron (NAT)	4,954
Clutha-Southland	100.0%	ENGLISH, Bill (NAT)	LOO, Tat (LAB)	14,915
Coromandel	100.0%	SIMPSON, Scott (NAT)	KININMONTH, Hugh (LAB)	11,800
Dunedin North	100.0%	CLARK, David (LAB)	WOODHOUSE, Michael (NAT)	3,304
Dunedin South	100.0%	CURRAN, Clare (LAB)	HAYES, Joanne (NAT)	3,867
East Coast	100.0%	TOLLEY, Anne (NAT)	MACKEY, Moana (LAB)	4,487
East Coast Bays	100.0%	McCULLY, Murray (NAT)	GOLDSMITH, Vivienne (LAB)	13,479
Epsom	100.0%	BANKS, John (ACT)	GOLDSMITH, Paul (NAT)	2,485
Hamilton East	100.0%	BENNETT, David (NAT)	ORGAD, Sehai (LAB)	7,708
Hamilton West	100.0%	MACINDOE, Tim (NAT)	MORONEY, Sue (LAB)	4,059
Helensville	100.0%	KEY, John (NAT)	GREENBROOK-HELD, Piers Jeremy (LAB)	19,116
Hunua	100.0%	HUTCHISON, Paul (NAT)	HILLS, Richard (LAB)	15,514
Hutt South	100.0%	MALLARD, Trevor (LAB)	QUINN, Paul (NAT)	4,193
Ilam	100.0%	BROWNLEE, Gerry (NAT)	PARSONS, John (LAB)	11,935
Invercargill	100.0%	ROY, Eric (NAT)	SOPER, Lesley (LAB)	5,766
Kaikōura	100.0%	KING, Colin (NAT)	COLLYNS, Liz (LAB)	10,534
Mana	100.0%	FAAFOI, Kris (LAB)	PARATA, Hekia (NAT)	1,857
Māngere	100.0%	SIO, Sua William (LAB)	HAUITI, Claudette (NAT)	13,356
Manukau East	100.0%	ROBERTSON, Ross (LAB)	BAKSHI, Kanwaljit Singh (NAT)	13,850
Manurewa	100.0%	WALL, Louisa (LAB)	CALDER, Cam (NAT)	7,230
Maungakiekie	100.0%	LOTU-IIGA, Peseta Sam (NAT)	BEAUMONT, Carol (LAB)	2,787
Mt Albert	100.0%	SHEARER, David (LAB)	LEE, Melissa (NAT)	9,055
Mt Roskill	100.0%	GOFF, Phil (LAB)	BLUE, Jackie (NAT)	6,383
Napier	100.0%	TREMAIN, Chris (NAT)	NASH, Stuart (LAB)	3,382
Nelson	100.0%	SMITH, Nick (NAT)	STREET, Maryan (LAB)	6,663
New Lynn	100.0%	CUNLIFFE, David (LAB)	GROSER, Tim (NAT)	4,475
New Plymouth	100.0%	YOUNG, Jonathan (NAT)	LITTLE, Andrew (LAB)	4,130
North Shore	100.0%	BARRY, Maggie (NAT)	CLARK, Ben (LAB)	13,739
Northcote	100.0%	COLEMAN, Jonathan (NAT)	GILLON, Paula (LAB)	8,535
Northland	100.0%	SABIN, Mike (NAT)	STEWART, Lynette (LAB)	10,655
Ōhariu	100.0%	DUNNE, Peter (UFNZ)	CHAUVEL, Charles (LAB)	1,646
Ōtaki	100.0%	GUY, Nathan (NAT)	FOSTER, Peter (LAB)	5,099
Pakuranga	100.0%	WILLIAMSON, Maurice (NAT)	KAUSHAL, Sunny (LAB)	12,879
Palmerston North	100.0%	LEES-GALLOWAY, Iain (LAB)	HAPETA, Leonie (NAT)	3,001
Papakura	100.0%	COLLINS, Judith (NAT)	MIKA, Jerome (LAB)	9,339
Port Hills	100.0%	DYSON, Ruth (LAB)	CARTER, David (NAT)	2,925
Rangitata	100.0%	GOODHEW, Jo (NAT)	BLANCHARD, Julian (LAB)	6,006
Rangitīkei	100.0%	McKELVIE, Ian (NAT)	PAGANI, Josie (LAB)	8,741
Rimutaka	100.0%	HIPKINS, Chris (LAB)	FLETCHER, Jonathan (NAT)	3,126
Rodney	100.0%	MITCHELL, Mark (NAT)	CRAIG, Colin (CNSP)	11,011
Rongotai	100.0%	KING, Annette (LAB)	FINLAYSON, Christopher (NAT)	8,022
Rotorua	100.0%	McCLAY, Todd (NAT)	CHADWICK, Steve (Stephanie) (LAB)	6,867
Selwyn	100.0%	ADAMS, Amy (NAT)	McLEAN, Jo (LAB)	17,708
Tāmaki	100.0%	O'CONNOR, Simon (NAT)	BAKULICH, Nick Iusitini (LAB)	16,257
Taranaki-King Country	100.0%	ARDERN, Shane (NAT)	BARKER, Rick (LAB)	14,093
Taupō	100.0%	UPSTON, Louise (NAT)	CAMPBELL, Frances (LAB)	13,049
Tauranga	100.0%	BRIDGES, Simon (NAT)	HORAN, Brendan (NZF)	15,812
Te Atatū	100.0%	TWYFORD, Phil (LAB)	HENARE, Tau (NAT)	4,653
Tukituki	100.0%	FOSS, Craig (NAT)	HAYDON-CARR, Julia (LAB)	9,032
Waikato	100.0%	TISCH, Lindsay (NAT)	SUTTON, Kate (LAB)	12,965
Waimakariri	100.0%	WILKINSON, Kate (NAT)	COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB)	395
Wairarapa	100.0%	HAYES, John (NAT)	BOTT, Michael (LAB)	6,695
Waitakere	100.0%	BENNETT, Paula (NAT)	SEPULONI, Carmel (LAB)	349
Waitaki	100.0%	DEAN, Jacqui (NAT)	MONKS, Barry (LAB)	12,963
Wellington Central	100.0%	ROBERTSON, Grant (LAB)	FOSTER-BELL, Paul (NAT)	5,111
West Coast-Tasman	100.0%	O'CONNOR, Damien (LAB)	AUCHINVOLE, Chris (NAT)	2,287
Whanganui	100.0%	BORROWS, Chester (NAT)	McDOUALL, Hamish (LAB)	4,786
Whangarei	100.0%	HEATLEY, Phil (NAT)	NEWMAN, Pat (LAB)	11,674
Wigram	100.0%	WOODS, Megan (LAB)	COLLINS, Sam (NAT)	1,533
Hauraki-Waikato	100.0%	MAHUTA, Nanaia (LAB)	GREENSILL, Angeline (MANA)	5,373
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti	100.0%	HOROMIA, Parekura (LAB)	RAIHANIA, Na (MAOR)	5,924
Tāmaki Makaurau	100.0%	SHARPLES, Pita (MAOR)	JONES, Shane (LAB)	746
Te Tai Hauāuru	100.0%	TURIA, Tariana (MAOR)	PEKE-MASON, Soraya Waiata (LAB)	2,760
Te Tai Tokerau	100.0%	HARAWIRA, Hone Pani Tamati Waka Nene (MANA)	DAVIS, Kelvin (LAB)	874
Te Tai Tonga	100.0%	TIRIKATENE, Rino (LAB)	KĀTENE, Rāhui (MAOR)	1,445
Waiariki	100.0%	FLAVELL, Te Ururoa James (MAOR)	SYKES, Annette Te Imaima (MANA)	1,820

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C c c Darren Rickard 2011

Labour's Capital Gains tax to impact negatively on house prices

2011-11-23T22:50:00.007+13:00

The impact on the economy of a 15% capital gains tax (CGT) proposed by Labour will be huge. Not only will all asset classes be negatively impacted directly but the 15% tax on rental housing will have a direct impact on the selling prices of the family home.

The 15% tax on rental housing will almost immediately affect that sector as shortly after election day investors would want to sell before the CGT is imposed in 2013. It is hard to tell by how much but in a depressed market with increased selling pressure you don't have to be Einstein to figure out it will be substantial negative impact.

The spill-off of that will be pressure from falling rental house values impacting on sellers of private homes. These are of course homes that kiwis generally have their biggest investment in.

Long-term a CGT and its impact on house prices may be debatable in terms of its influence but in the short to medium term it is economics 101 that prices for the family home will fall.

Given a more robust economy, sustainable rising house prices and good demand a CGT may not have been such a bad thing in terms of its economic kick but in the most uncertain economic times since the Great Depression a CGT has the potential to kick-off a major housing sell-off and a consequent drop in house prices.

The fallout from that is obvious. Less confidence in people's personal financial situation and a resultant slowdown in consumer spending and a loss of jobs.

Labour really need to think hard about this if they are lucky enough to gain enough votes on November 26. It may have support from left commentators like Gareth Morgan, Bernard Hickey and the hapless Rod Oram but it is probably more akin to an exercise in economic suicide rather than a good way to raise more taxes - especially given the tough times that we are currently facing and will continue to face for years to come.

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C c c Darren Rickard 2011

Fairfax Media Poll: 23 November 2011

2011-11-23T06:00:00.004+13:00

Full Poll

As most wise pundits have been saying over the last week the illegal taping of the Prime Minister and his principled stand against the perpetrator has been good for Key.

This latest poll takes support for National back to the trend we have seen for most of this year - support well over 50% - but shows Labour continuing to slide in support well below 30%

As I have been saying for the majority of 2011, Key is set to give Goff a good arse kicking on election day and in all possibility we will see a complete meltdown for the Labour party vote.

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C c c Darren Rickard 2011

Trevor Mallard Puts the boot into his Leader

2011-11-22T09:00:00.004+13:00

TrevorMallard Trevor Mallard

@shareinvestor t.co/R2hDQLzS

2 hours ago

Trevor Mallard's Cryptic reply in answer to this comment from me below:

shareinvestor Darren Rickard

The worm Loved Phil Goff on the channel 3 leaders debate last night so why don't voters feel the same way?

2 hours ago

You would think he would be spending his time on more constructive things other than twitter nonsense from his sackcloth covered desktop.

His link contained in his tweet is Trev's google search of "to know him is to love him".

Is Trevor being sarcastic about support for his leader Phil Goff? I think so. It is not like him to be upfront and genuine about politics and this is his modus operandi politically speaking.

Just come out and say it Trevor, you don't support your man!!

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C c c Darren Rickard 2011

TV3 Leaders Debate: "Worm" panel stacked with Labour Party Activists

2011-11-22T08:17:00.002+13:00

The Lead Labour Activist

John Kingi who was in the TV3

"Worm" Audience last night.

How low will Labour stoop to gain power November 26?

Well, watching the worm turn on TV3s leaders debate last night, every time Goff started talking the worm got a stiffy and turned limp when Key spoke. This was regardless of what was being said.

You could tell something was wrong.

Turns out there is an answer to this anomaly.

Labour party activists and insiders were members of the panel. The worm panel were supposed to be 60 undecided voters but instead TV3 either intentionally or unintentionally stacked the wormies with Labour voters.

Moral of the story?

Biased, stacked "worm debates" may have given Goff a personal boost but voters don't feel the same if opinion polls are anything to go by and who can trust a party who tries to manipulate polls and debates by using their activists to slant things.

Goff should also remember that worms feed on corpses.

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

C c c Darren Rickard 2011