NBA Prospects

Kevin Durant Skills Academy Notes

2013-07-23T17:08:00.000-07:00

Last month, I was on hand for the first (and only) session at the Kevin Durant Skills Academy open to the media. Here are some of the players who stood out:

TJ Warren - The first thing I noticed about jumper was how slow his release was on his jumper and how little elevation he got while shooting it. Still, the North Carolina State forward used his body around the basket as well as anyone and has great touch in the lane.

Jabari Parker - Parker was arguably the best college prospect there, even though he has yet to even play his first game. He went head to head with Kevin Durant in drills and held his own and looked more fluid than advertised. He handles the ball well and is able to handle contact at the rim thanks to his solid frame.

Damyean Dotson - This was a tough setting for Dotson, who normally has the height advantage playing against shooting guards. In this event, Dotson was one of the smaller and weaker plays in attendance so he lost a lot of his advantages. He's a good but not great shooter, and is still working on getting strong enough to attack the basket.

Cleanthony Early - Early was one of the biggest surprises here. He was very aggressive and stout on defense and showed off a lot of versatility. On offense, he showed the ability to shoot long jumpers off the dribble - looking more fluid than expected. In terms of projecting him to the NBA, he will still be fighting an uphill battle trying to prove he is not a tweener.

Alex Poythress - Poythress was easily the most impressive prospect from a physical and athletic standpoint. He's a legit 6-9 with a chiseled frame and elevates at the rim with little effort. He can also shoot the ball well. Just like last year though, Poythress didn't standout in actual games the way he should.

Gary Harris - Harris is bigger and more explosive than expected. He was right at the top of the list when it came to skill level and he's able to hit his jumper from anywhere on the court. His play was very impressive.

Geron Johnson - Johnson measured out great at the camp - sporting a wingspan over 6-8 and a strong 203lb frame. He can shoot off the dribble or the catch, breakdown defenses, and finish strong at the rim. He likes to push the pace and has all the tools to be a great defender. The biggest question mark is his shot selection and whether or not he will be able to play the point in the NBA. Nice prospect.

Glenn Robinson III - Robinson III had one of the best strokes at the camp, but didn't assert himself as much as he could have. He won't be able to take a backseat at Michigan anymore and it will be interesting to see if he's able to step up.

Winston Shepard - Shepard had the height to see over defenses and was aggressive and creative enough to be a playmaker here. He has a bright future as a point forward, but will need to tighten up his handles to truly take advantage of his gifts. He was a little too upright with the ball in his hands and it led to turnovers.

2013 NBA Draft Pick Analysis (Live)

2013-06-27T15:11:00.002-07:00

Check back frequently as I update this throughout the draft.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV

Word is that the Cavaliers will keep the pick. There was plenty of trade talk surrounding the pick, but its a tough sell this year. There is a lot of pressure with the #1 pick in a draft with no clear cut choice. Not only is there pressure on the front office, but it also adds pressure on the draft choice.

Anthony Bennett is a player I have ranked 8th on my board. This pick is a big surprise, even among fans of Bennett. Bennett brings a nice skillset at the power forward spot and has the length/girth to make up for his height inside. The biggest question with him is his motor and defensive capabilities. Bennett often backed down from physical play this season, showed poor awareness defending, and underachieved in the halfcourt offense. He has the potential to be a great scorer, but last year he floated around a lot in the halfcourt and settled for jumpers. His impressive skills in transition and powerful dunks, however, turned a lot of heads.

2. Orlando Magic - Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana

Oladipo ranked 5th on my board and is one of the surest bets in this draft. He's a tireless worker with a good head on his shoulders, who has improved more than anyone since his high school days. The biggest question surrounding him is how much upside he has left? On one hand, he has one of the best work ethic in the draft. On the other end of the spectrum, he's already improved his game so much. It remains to be seen if he can become a scorer in the NBA, but he can turn into a Tony Allen type defender.

3. Washington Wizards - Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

With Nerlens Noel still on the board, this pick got a little more interesting than it was before, but the Wizards went the safe route with Porter. Porter is an excellent fit for the Wizards and ranks as the second best player on my board. He is the safest pick in the draft and will contribute in all areas.

4. Charlotte Bobcats - Cody Zeller, PF, Indiana

It looks like Rich Cho got his guy, but I'm surprised that they passed on a superior talent in Nerlens Noel. Noel isn't slipping because of his injury it seems, teams simply just feel there are better players on the board. Zeller is a nice complimentary piece and will fit well in Charlotte, but its tough to pass on Noel at this stage.

5. Phoenix Suns - Alex Len, C, Maryland

Another team passes on Noel. This time for Alex Len. Len had a great game head to head against Noel to begin last year, but he failed to really build on that success. I have my concerns with Len and have him as the 14th best player in the draft. While he possesses intriguing potential, his lack of awareness, toughness, and mobility on defense concerns me. I went in-depth about my take here: http://nbaprospects.blogspot.com/2013/01/midseason-report-alex-len.html.

6. New Orleans Pelicans - Nerlens Noel, F/C, Kentucky

I bet the Pelicans had no idea they'd have the opportunity to pair Anthony Davis with Nerlens Noel. While they are often compared to each other, Davis is much further along on the development curve. Noel still has similar intrigue as Davis defensively and I am anxious to see how well they do playing next to each other. They could form a historic defensive duo from a shotblocking perspective if they pan out.

EDIT: Pick will be traded to the Sixers.

7. Sacramento Kings - Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

For the second straight year, the Kings take a player from Kansas. This time, its from a completely new front office. McLemore has tons of potential, but its a question whether he has the right mental approach to ever achieve it. Even if he doesn't, he's one of the best shooters in this draft and should develop into a solid starter. McLemore ranked 4th on my draft board.

8. Detroit Pistons -Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia

Yet again, the Pistons have the perfect player for their team fall in their lap. They badly need a point guard and Burke is the best in this draft. Unfortunately, this time Dumars messed up by going against conventional wisdom. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a great shooter, but is lacking in basketball IQ. Playing for the Pistons, he won't have the benefit of playing in a fast paced offense or next to a great point guard. It will really test his ability to move without the ball and create for himself. In college, he didn't show he could do that.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves - Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

This pick will obviously be traded. Whoever moved up to get him deserves a big pat on the back for taking the initiative to make a move. He was easily the best player on my draft board.

EDIT: Utah will receive Trey Burke in a trade.

10. Portland Trailblazers - CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh

Portland will pair McCollum with Damian Lillard, who may deserve some of the credit for McCollum going so high. McCollum and Lillard actually are good friends that have developed a relationship because of their similar situations. McCollum isn't as dynamic as Lillard nor is he a true point, but he will provide an added scoring punch.

11. Phladelphia 76ers - Michael Carter-Williams, G, Syracuse

With Jrue Holiday apparently on his way to New Orleans and Nerlens Noel on board, the 76ers decided to add Michael Carter-Williams to the mix. No big surprise as Hinkie is a big stat guy and MCW rates highly due to his ability to get steals. However, playing outside of the Syracuse zone will be a different animal on defense and his offense is extremely raw. The Sixers will have a very ugly offense next year.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder - Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh

Adams has a ton of potential and at this spot, he's worth the gamble. The Thunder badly need a defensive center and thats one area where Adams is already proficient in. He'll likely spend a good amount of time in the D-League his first year. He has a quirky personality and will need to show more of a nastiness to become the defensive player he has the potential to be.

13. Dallas Mavericks (to Boston Celtics) - Kelly Olynyk, PF, Gonzaga

This pick will be traded to the Boston Celtics. There were a few teams throughout the top 20 that loved Kelly Olynyk and the Celtics were one of them. He's a guy you either love or you hate as a NBA pro. With the right offense around him, Olynyk can be effective as a pick and pop big. He is also versatile and should be able to score some in the post and off the pick and roll. He has great dexterity for a big man.

14. Utah Jazz (to Minnesota Timberwolves) - Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA

I thought it'd be a mistake if Shabazz Muhammad slipped out of the lottery and he just barely made it in. Minnesota traded back and pick up an extra first round pick, while getting a player who I believe is better than their original target (Caldwell-Pope). Muhammad will be great working off the ball next to Ricky Rubio and getting up and down in transition.

15. Milwaukee Bucks - Giannis Adetokunbo, SF, International

Adetokunbo will likely spend all of next year in the D-League, if not the next couple of seasons. I'm sure the Bucks expect that as well. However, he showed great potential recently playing for the Greek U19 team and teams were able to feel safer about picking this unknown forward.

16. Boston Celtics (to Atlanta Hawks via Dallas) - Lucas Noguiera, C, International

The Mavericks continue to avoid making a pick as the Hawks move up one spot. Nogueira may be just as far away as Giannis from contributing, but has shown ability at a much higher level up to this point. His problem is his weight and toughness. Unlike the Giannis pick, I don't feel Noguiera's upside is enough to justify a selection this high. He's seen his stock skyrocket the last month and I don't see a good reason for it.

17. Atlanta Hawks - Dennis Schroeder, PG, International

Schroeder was the second best player left on my draft board and could surpass Jeff Teague on the depth chart in a couple of years.He excels in the pick and roll and is extremely quick. He is also a nice catch and shoot player, although he isn't a dynamic shooter off the dribble. His length has drawn comparisons to Rajon Rondo and he wants to come over the the NBA right away. Best comparison for him is Darren Collison, although he has higher upside.

18. Dallas Mavericks (from Atlanta Hawks) - Shane Larkin, PG, Miami

Larkin is an interesting player. He tested as the best athlete in the draft and thrives in the pick and roll offense. His quickness and shiftiness with the ball in his hand forced defenses to stay off of him in college. In the NBA, it will be different. He will have to deal with more physical defenses and work on getting his shot over taller players. Not many players are out there with a wingspan as short as his. He's quickly gone from a mid-major recruit to a NBA first round draft pick.

19. Cleveland Cavaliers - Sergey Karasev, SF, International

I like this pick a lot better for the Cavs. They were trying to trade up for him earlier and were still able to get him at #19. I have him ranked as the 7th best player in this draft because of his elite shooting and feel for the game on the offensive end. He will be a great complementary floor spacer in Cleveland. The Cavs have assembled themselves a very nice offense for years to come. How well they will be able to defend remains to be seen.

20. Chicago Bulls - Tony Snell, SF, New Mexico

The Bulls had a number of options to choose from in terms of wing players and chose to go with one of the biggest question marks. Snell looks the part physically, though he will need to get stronger, and is a great shooter. He didn't always play with a high motor defensively at New Mexico which is a cause for concern. I liked Allen Crabbe better at this spot, but Snell is in good hands with Coach Thibs. Perhaps the Bulls were uncertain how Crabbe's personality would mesh with the Bulls coaching staff.

21. Utah Jazz (to Minnesota Timberwolves) - Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville

Timberwolves were in prime position to add a shooter to pair with Shabazz Muhammad on the wing, but went in another direction with Dieng. Dieng is good value here as he should be able to provide minutes soon as a backup center. With the pricetag backup centers are signed to in free agency, its never a bad move to take a reliable big men in the draft who is confined to the rookie scale. Dieng doesn't have a lot of potential, but is a smart player who can hit the 15 foot jump shot. He doesn't have any sort of post game, however, and will need to hold his ground on defense better.

22. Brooklyn Nets - Mason Plumlee, C, Duke

I've never been a fan of Mason Plumlee and only have him ranked 42nd in my rankings. He should be able to earn minutes in the NBA, but I don't see the upside of him ever becoming anything better than a 4th big man on a NBA team.

23. Indiana Pacers - Solomon Hill, SF, Arizona

After making a big reach for Miles Plumlee last year, the Pacers take another player who wasn't seen as a first rounder by many. Hill, however, is a much better prospect than Plumlee was. He is a hard worker who has a very good and versatile floor game at SF. I have questions about how much more room he has to improve and his athleticism on the perimeter, but its not as bad of a pick as it may seem.

24. New York Knicks - Tim Hardaway Jr, SG, Michigan

Thought this would be a nice spot for Tony Mitchell, but Hardaway Jr is a guy who won't be phased by the pressure in New York. He could develop into a solid role player who can knock down shots and acclimate to the NBA lifestyle quickly.

25. Los Angeles Clippers - Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina

We are having a run on players with solid role playing potential and low upside. Bullock doesn't possess any ability to get his own shot, but he defends and rebounds very well. He also is a dead eye shooter and could become a 3/D guy. Good fit for the Clippers.

26. Oklahoma City Thunder - Andre Roberson, F, Colorado

Roberson was one of the best rebounders in the NBA and a pick that statheads will enjoy. He can provide energy for the Thunder and should be able to defend both the 3/4 positions. He tried to convert to a small forward this season at Colorado, but failed miserably on the offensive end. This pick is one of the biggest reaches yet, but I can see the fit for the Thunder.

27. Denver Nuggets (to Utah) - Rudy Gobert, C, International

Gobert was the second best player available according to my draft board. With Trey Burke running the point, Gobert could get himself some easy buckets coming off pick and rolls. Gobert is definitely a project, but has the length, mobility, and BBIQ to be a factor defensively. You can't teach the biggest wingspan in the NBA Draft.

28. San Antonio Spurs - Livio Jean-Charles, F, International

Spurs once again elect to go overseas for their pick, this time with a versatile forward. I didn't see them going with Jean-Charles because they already have Kawhi Leonard, but Jean-Charles is solid value. I had him as the 4th best remaining player on my board. He made a name for himself at the Nike Hoop Summit with his opportunistic play and nose for the ball. He's not overly skilled or polished, but fills up the statsheet. I thought Erick Green would be a perfect fit for the Spurs, but can't argue with this pick either.

29. Phoenix Suns (from Thunder via Warriors) - Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky

Ryan McDonough is one of the best at finding good players in bad situations and projecting their potential to the NBA. Archie Goodwin could be another success story for him. Goodwin is a risk, but has one of the highest upsides in the draft. He's an explosive slasher with an ugly jumpshot that may prevent him from contributing for a couple of years.

30. Golden State Warriors (from Phoenix Suns) - Nemanja Nedovic, G, International

Nedovic is a taller point guard with good handles who competed in a strong league this past season. I saw him more of a second round talent, but he's certainly not a name to forget about.

Second Round

31. Cleveland Cavaliers (to Portland) - Allen Crabbe, SG, California

Crabbe has been the best player on my board for a long while. I see him as a lottery talent although there are legitimate concerns about his motor, maturity, and mental toughness. At this point though, he is a huge steal.

32. Oklahoma City Thunder - Alex Abrines, SG, International

Abrines is a talented shooting guard who is dynamic with the ball in his hands. Looks like a draft and stash for them.

33. Cleveland Cavaliers - Carrick Felix, G/F, Arizona State

Felix is another 3/D guy. He has a great motor and played a similar role at Arizona State that he will in the NBA. His offensive game is very vanilla, but he is a great athlete and understands his role. While he is a solid player who has worked hard to improve, I don't see him having the potential to stick in the NBA. This pick is a stretch.

34. Houston Rockets - Isaiah Canaan, G, Murray State

Not a big fan of this pick based on the way Glen Rice Jr fell right into their laps. I think there are better point guards on the board as well. Canaan is one of the best shooters in this draft off the dribble or spotting up and has no problem hitting contested shots. He's small though and lacks PG skills. I like his grittiness, but its tough to make a living as an undersized shooter.

35. Philadelphia 76ers - Glen Rice Jr, SF, D-League

Glen Rice Jr is the third selection of the night for the Sixers and also happens to be the most ready to contribute offensively. Rice Jr proved in the D-League he can perform against NBA athletes and adjust to the 3-pt line. He was my best player on the board at this point. Great pick here.

EDIT: Pick traded to Washington. Wizards have had two great picks.

36. Sacramento Kings - Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit

The early second round is the best place to get a point guard in this draft. You can't go wrong with McCallum, Pierre Jackson, Nate Wolters, and Erick Green. McCallum is a coach's son with NBA athleticism and feel for the game. He is a better shooter off the dribble than given credit for, but had to take a lot of tough shots at Detroit.

37. Detroit Pistons - Tony Mitchell, PF, North Texas

Tony Mitchell replaced Glen Rice Jr as my best player available and then quickly followed him off the board. Mitchell has lottery talent but big time questions about his motor. Detroit was a team that badgered him about him not playing hard in interviews and it seems they still see him as talented enough to take a risk on him. At this point, there really isn't much risk involved. Much better pick than their selection at #9.

38. Washington Wizards (to 76ers) - Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State

This will be interesting with Michael Carter-Williams on board. MCW has the advantage with physical tools, but when it comes to the mental game, Wolters is on another level. Wolters could realistically push MCW for a spot in the rotation next year. He's a great pick here.

EDIT: Traded to Milwaukee.

39. Portland Trailblazers - Jeff Withey, C, Kansas

Withey was a great shotblocker at Kansas, but I have questions about how it will translate to the pros. Apparently a lot of NBA teams do as well. He lacks toughness and intensity of a great defensive big man. Offensively, he has reached his peak and won't contribute much. He doesn't seem like a player with a great passion for the game. At this point, its a solid pick and the Trailblazers continue to look to add depth through the draft.

40. Portland Trailblazers - Grant Jarrett, PF, Arizona

Jarrett declared for the draft as just a freshman, despite only averaging 20 minutes per game for Arizona. He's a prototype stretch 4 with a big body who could develop into a solid player after spending a couple of years in the D-League. He needs to improve his conditioning and physicality.

41. Memphis Grizzlies - Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State

Even though Franklin doesn't have the lottery potential some dubbed him with, he's still an excellent pick at this stage. He's a hard worker and a tenacious defender who will need to accept his role at the next level. Franklin's biggest downfall is his shooting and decision making. There are also some character concerns.

42. New Orleans Pelicans (from Philly) - Pierre Jackson, PG, Baylor

With Jackson off the board, only Erick Green remains from that talented group of early second round PGs that I like. Jackson is one of those guys who will find his way into a rotation as a Bobby Jackson-esque spark plug. He slips in the draft because he doesn't have an allure to him, but he's just a solid basketball player. One of the surest things in the second round.

43. Milwaukee Bucks (to Atlanta) - Ricky Ledo, SG, Providence

Although I understand Ledo falling to the second round, he is still one of the most talented players in the draft. He's a natural with the ball in his hands, can shoot of the dribble, and has a good feel for the game. There are a lot of questions about how his style translates in an organized setting as well as character concerns.

44. Dallas Mavericks (to Atlanta) - Mike Muscala, PF, Bucknell

Muscala is more of a power forward than a center, preferring to play in the high post on offense. He can shoot, pass, and drive by you from 15 feet out on the court. He was also a great rebounder in college although I'm not sure that will translate as well as expected. He has a chance to stick in the league, but I'd lean towards him being forgotten about quickly.

45. Portland Trailblazers - Marko Todorovic, C, International

Draft and stash guy. Has some fans overseas. With a bunch of young players already, this is a good route to take.

46. Utah Jazz (to Denver) - Erick Green, PG, Virginia Tech

Green was the best player on the board at this point. He has some Devin Harris in him. He was a big time scorer in college, but is unselfish and smart enough to make the transition to point guard. He is a great transition player with a smooth mid-range game.

47. Atlanta Hawks - Raul Neto, PG, International

First player drafted who played in the Olympic games last year. He's a creative point guard who has spent time in the ACB each of the past two years. Maybe some Jose Calderon to his game. Draft and stash.

48. Los Angeles Lakers - Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke

I soured on Kelly a bit after the college season ended. I'm not sure he has the strength or the body to compete on the defensive end. However, he was a good defensive player at Duke because of his smart positioning. He's a stretch forward at the next level.

49. Chicago Bulls - Erik Murphy, PF, Florida

Back to back stretch forwards. I like Erick Murphy slightly better than Kelly. Murphy has a smoother offensive game and is the better athlete. He now also has the benefit of going into a better situation.

50. Atlanta Hawks - James Ennis, SF, Long Beach State

If I were to take a under the radar, athletic small forward from the west coast, I would have taken Ennis over Carrick Felix. Ennis is longer and more athletic. He has the potential to be a disruptive defensive player in the league and win a few dunk contests.

Edit: Traded to the Miami Heat.

51. Orlando Magic - Romero Osby, F, Oklahoma

I don't get this pick at all but there have been reports all week that the Magic really like Osby. He's an undersized forward who plays tough and can hit a jumper. Didn't see him as a draftable player.

52. Minnesota Timberwolves - Lorenzo Brown, PG, North Carolina State

There is some intrigue around taller point guards and he's not a bad pick here. But next to the group of Wolters, Green, Jackson, and McCallum - he is clearly a lesser prospect. Slim pickings this late in the draft.

53. Indiana Pacers (to Boston) - Colton Iverson, C, Colorado State

There are some serious Greg Stiemsma vibes with this pick. Iverson is a tough, old school center who was helped out at the combine when he measured taller than expected. Could be a contributor.

54. Washington Wizards (to Philly) - Arsalan Kazemi, F, Oregon

Kazemi has an extremely high motor and plays tough inside. He also possesses a high basketball IQ. Offensively, he is nothing more than a hustle player. He's a nice pick to have in training camp at this point and could definitely make the 76ers roster. Again, Philly is really going with some poor offensive players.

55. Memphis Grizzlies (to Denver) - Joffrey Lauvergne, PF, International

Draft and stash player.

56. Detroit Pistons - Peyton Siva, PG, Louisville

Dumars has used his second round picks lately to select high character, successful college players. Siva can pump up the intensity in practice with pesky defense.

57. Phoenix Suns - Alex Oriakhi, C, Missouri

The former UConn Huskie, Oriakhi has really flown under the draft radar the past couple of months. Once viewed as a potential late first rounder, Oriakhi brings size and defense to the next level. Reminds me of DeVon Hardin from Cal.

58. San Antonio Spurs - Deshaun Thomas, SF, Ohio State

Not a fan of Thomas, but if there is one place he can succeed, its the Spurs. Everyone made a big deal of him not giving his phone number to the Spurs during the NBA Combine.

59. Minnesota Timberwolves - Bojan Dubljevic, F/C, International

Draft and stash.

60. Memphis Grizzlies - Janis Timma, SF, International

Finding a Second Round All-Star

2013-06-04T15:58:00.000-07:00

I wanted to do a piece on potential second round picks in this draft that possess the most upside, but I decided it would be appropriate to look at previous second round steals from the past 15 years. These 5 players are the only American players to be selected in the second round who went on to play in an All-Star game at some point.

A few things you will notice about these player:

1) None of them are that elite type of athlete that one would generally associate with a high upside pick in the second round. Furthermore, none of them were freshman in college - although Rashard Lewis came out as a high schooler.

2) The majority of these guys earned their stripes as scorers. Part of this has to do with the all-star criteria. There are some other second round steals during this time period that didn't make an All-Star game primarily because scoring tends to be overvalued for such awards.

3) Everyone in this group became great shooters and most had questions about their shooting abilities entering the draft. However, none of them had bad shots coming out of college. Their jumpers were all repairable and most showed improvement during their time in college as well.

4) Pinpointing talent in the second round is only half of the battle. Second round picks become restricted free agents after two years and you can easily be placed in a tough situation of having to overpay your draft steal to retain them. The Cavs and Warriors lost their all-star caliber steals because they made their worth known to the rest of the league right away. Rashard Lewis and Michael Redd were able to stay with their teams for a longer time because they didn't play consistently their first two season.

If you have a second round steal on your hands, it may be smarter to hide them a bit until you are able to lock them up for at least a few years. These steals lose a lot of their value if you are forced to pay them 10+ million a year after they've only played two seasons. The Wizards jumped on Arenas, but never were able to take the next step with him as the centerpiece. There hasn't been a second round pick in the NBA that has proven he can be the best player on a championship worthy team, so its risky to invest a bunch of money in a player two years after he wasn't even good enough to go in the first round.

5) Most of these guys wouldn't have been labeled as huge risk/reward picks when they entered the draft. The didn't necessarily succeed because they finally achieved their "unlimited" potential. These guys consist of combo guard tweeners, undersized power forwards, and a very typical looking shooting guard. The only guys who could have been associated with the word potential were Gilbert Arenas and Rashard Lewis.

6) Oddly enough, none of these guys were overlooked due to lack of exposure. They all went to big schools. In fact, three of the four that went to college played in the NCAA Final Four! Only Mo Williams did not, but his team entered the NCAA tournament as a #2 seed.

7) International players are a different animal when it comes to the second round so I left them out. But when it comes to finding steals in the second round, taking a overseas player is as good of a bet as any.

Mo Williams

Draft Year: 2003
Drafted By: Utah Jazz
Pick Number : 47
Left After ___ Year: Sophomore
College: Alabama

Mo Williams left Alabama after two successful years at Alabama and was viewed as one of the best players on the board when the Utah Jazz selected him. However he lacked great athleticism or size to make up for his lack of PG skills and only shot around 30% from 3-pt range. The Jazz never reaped the benefits of their smart pick as they cut him after his rookie season. Williams then greatly improved his outside stroke and went to an all-star game primarily because he was a great spot up threat playing with LeBron James. There was reason to believe that Williams could become a good shooter as he shot above 80% from the line in college. With repetition, he expanded his range to fit the NBA game.

Carlos Boozer

Draft Year: 2002
Drafted By: Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick Number: 35
Left After ___ Year: Junior
College: Duke

Boozer left school after his junior season, with a National Championship under his belt from the prior year. He was a winner and produced, but many questioned his size and speed. He played out of position at Duke as well and struggled to finish against taller players. His jump shot had potential as he showed range out to 18 feet, but he didn't hit it consistently yet. But given the range he showed in college and his solid free throw shooting, it shouldn't have been a surprise that he became one of the best mid-range shooter power forwards in the game.

Boozer made an immediate impact for the Cavaliers and as a second round pick, was in line for a big pay day after playing just two seasons. He was a restricted free agent and bolted to the Utah Jazz. Ironically, Boozer went in the opposite direction as Mo Williams but both had some good years playing with LeBron.

Michael Redd

Draft Year: 2000
Drafted By: Milwaukee Bucks
Pick Number: 43
Left After ___ Year: Junior
College: Ohio State

Entering the draft after a final four run the prior year, Redd wasn't known as a shooter at all. The Ohio State star had the size and the physical profile of a prototype shooting guard, but never shot above 34% from deep in his college career. He was more known for defense and solid slashing ability. In his junior year, his FT shooting jumped from 61% his first two seasons to 77%. His improvement in shooting proved to be more than just an outlier as he went on to be one of the most prolific shooters in the NBA.

He didn't play much in his rookie season, but came on strong at the end of his second year for the Milwaukee Bucks. He didn't play consistently enough behind Ray Allen, however, for any team to trust him with a big offer as a restricted free agent so they Bucks were able to keep him on a bargain contract until the 2004-05 season. Thats when Redd cashed in with a huge contract - a contract that ended up being one of the worst contracts in the NBA as Redd battled injuries for the remainder of his NBA career.

Rashard Lewis

Draft Year: 1998
Drafted By: Seattle Supersonics
Pick Number: 32
Left After ___ Year: High School
College: N/A

Lewis was famously the last player remaining in the Green Room in 1998 and took it hard as only a high school kid. He wasn't thought of as a second round talent, but perhaps dropped because teams didn't view him as ready enough physically for the NBA. He already had signs of a great jumpshot from his high school days.

Like Michael Redd, Lewis didn't play much his rookie season and shared time as a sophomore player. Because of this, the Supersonics were able to retain Lewis for a relative bargain after he became a restricted free agent following his second season. Also like Redd, it was his third NBA contract that ended up killing a NBA team - as the Magic were stuck with his max contract for years.

Gilbert Arenas

Draft Year: 2001
Drafted By: Golden State Warriors
Pick Number: 30
Left After ___ Year: Sophomore

Arenas left Arizona his sophomore year with dreams of being picked in the first round, but instead went with the first pick and the second round. He had the talent of a first round pick, but had a lot of questions surrounding his game as well. He was in between positions, made lots of questionable decisions, and was only an average ball handler. Despite a very good first step, he didn't look like a point guard. His shooting at the time was only average as well - he shot just under 74% in his career at the FT line and 36% from behind the arc. However, his 3-pt shooting rose above 41% in his final year, although his FT% dipping to 71% sent a mixed message.

Arenas quickly became a volume scorer in the NBA, putting up big numbers on some poor Warrior teams. By his second year, Arenas was no longer a secret and drew a lot of attention as a restricted free agent. Warriors were unable to match the Wizards offer at 10 million dollars a season and lost their second round steal after just two seasons. Gilbert's third contract ended up doing in the Wizards when they signed him to a max deal and he was eventually involved in a trade for Rashard Lewis.

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This shows us that finding the guys with all-star potential isn't as easy as identifying the best athletes and the rawest players. Some guys simply get overlooked and written off. In this draft, the big time potential guys in the second round include Archie Goodwin, Ricky Ledo, BJ Young, Adonis Thomas, and Myck Kabongo. But maybe there are some guys with less tangible upside that could be overlooked. Here are two possibilities based on draft history:

Erick Green - Green fits the Mo Williams/Gilbert Arenas mold. All were great scorers in college, but didn't show much point guard skills because they were needed to score the ball. However, all had plenty of experience with the ball in their hands. Green has the jumpshot, quickness, and first step to be a scorer in the NBA. He produced big time in college, but is being overlooked in this deep point guard class.

Jackie Carmichael - Carmichael's scouting report reads very similarly to what was said about Carlos Boozer when he left Duke. Both had good post games, played smart and tough, rebounded, and showed some shooting ability. Like Boozer, Carmichael is far from a consistent shooter at this stage but has decent mechanics and range out to 18 feet.

Conclusion: If you swing for the fences, most of the time you will end up striking out. But if you just try to make solid contact, the ball will go over the fence once in awhile.

Scouting Report: Nerlens Noel

2013-06-03T13:37:00.000-07:00

Nerlens Noel is the 4th youngest player in the draft class, having just turned 19 in April. He reclassified back to the class of 2012 in order to attend Kentucky a year early and become the next Calipari recruit in line for the number one pick. A torn ACL against Florida in February ended his collegiate career and it will at least delay his NBA career from starting for at least a couple of months into the 2013-14 NBA season.

For some teams, Noel missing most of the NBA season may be intriguing as the see it as an opportunity to score another high draft pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. While only one team will be able to draft Andrew Wiggins, the 2014 NBA Draft is expected to have potential stars located throughout the top 10.

Coming into Kentucky, Noel shouldn't have been expected to replicate Anthony Davis' 2012-13 season. Noel drew obvious comparisons to his predecessor due to his length, elite athleticism, and shot blocking process but he was much more raw on the offensive end. Calling Noel the favorite to be the number one overall pick was realistic, but expecting him to be the same kind of talent Davis was wasn't.

Based on my personal expectations of Noel, I'd say he lived up to his billing in his first and final year in Lexington. In high school, he didn't put up the biggest numbers and seemed preoccupied and disinterested at times. He preferred to play on the outside and handle the ball and didn't always play smart or with energy.

Noel was raw as expected on offense, but he appeared to be nothing but extremely coachable at Kentucky. There was no questioning his energy or his willingness to play inside. He worked on his post game, dove on the floor for loose balls, and became the defensive anchor that he was expected to be. Any questions from Noel's high school days can be attributed to the environment.

Calipari constantly praised his work ethic and character. On the court, he looked like the most mature freshman of the group. His energy was always there and he played his role better than anyone else - making good decisions for the most part. This college season helped erase any of those concerns about him (which may have never been justified in the first place) and for that alone, made the year in Kentucky worth it.

As for his offensive game, it is still extremely raw but you could see him getting better from a game to game basis. He doesn't have strength to hold off defenders in the post and because of this, he had a tendency to rush a lot of his shots. He could get pushed off the ball easily and lose balance in the post and learned quickly that he has to make quick decisions given his current level of strength.

His post game is pretty straight forward now. It consists of a short baby jump hook that he is able to hit with either hand. He almost always faked towards the middle of the court in the post and came back to the baseline to get off his hook shot. Its not very impressive looking, but it was an efficient move and nearly impossible to contest. His range on this shot is very limited however, and he needed to get within 8 to 10 feet of the rim for him to have a shot. That was obviously hard given his lack of strength.

Between his inability to establish post position and his poor free throw shooting, it was very hard for Kentucky to use him as a go-to option on the block - even though he did shoot 59% from the floor. He also came close to having a 1:1 A/TO ratio which is pretty good for a big man, especially a freshman who averaged over 10 points per game.

He's an unselfish player who sees the court well. He isn't able to be a facilitator in the post at the moment because he gets pushed off the blocks to quickly, but can pass the ball when facing the basket. His passing skills date back to his high school days where he would bring the ball up the court at times and gravitate to the perimeter. Those days are gone thankfully, but he's able to find cutters still when he has the ball outside of the paint. Of the draftable big men in this year's draft, Noel only trailed Gorgui Dieng in assists per possession.

Noel's best way to score early on in his career, besides transition and offensive glass points, may be his face up game. Right now, the biggest thing holding him back in that area is the lack of a jumpshot. However, he has an elite first step and is able to drive either way off the dribble. He isn't a great ball handler, but with his quickness and athleticism, he's good enough to put it on the floor once or twice and finish at the rim. He also has good body control at the rim, but his strength hurts him in this area as well. He also has only average touch at the rim and misses some easy bunnies when he isn't able to throw down with a dunk. He shot 71% at the rim, but could have been even better given his physical profile

Defensively is where he will make his biggest impact, as he projects to be a major game changer on that end of the court. Nobody in college basketball averaged a higher combination of blocks and steals per 40 minutes than Noel did. He covered more ground than anyone in college basketball and he was able to do it both vertically and horizontally. He did an excellent job at blocking shots from a secondary level and did so with either hand. He has great instincts when it comes to blocking shots, displayin great timing and anticipation. Noel is blessed with the ability to come over and block a shot at the last minute and doesn't have to cheat to post high block numbers.

Most of his blocks come from helpside defense, as he struggles to hold his position in man to man post defense. He only weighed 206 pounds at the combine in Chicago, although he says he lost weight during the injury. He was above 220lbs while playing at Kentucky and has already added more weight since Chicago just a few weeks ago. By the time he is ready to play next year, I don't think he will have a problem getting up to 230lbs. He still will struggle to hold position inside, but he will at least not be working against the odds as one of the lightest big men ever.

While Noel has great anticipation when it comes to getting blocks and steals, his overall defensive mechanics and awareness need work. He is solid in this area, but relies too much on his athleticism right now.

Noel has a ton of upside, but there is also some injury concerns and risk that come along with picking him. Teams will need to rely on their doctors recommendations, but ACL injuries have been easier to come back from in recent years. At the same time, Noel has very skinny legs and looks like an injury waiting to happen every time he flies into the air or dives onto the floor.

Having the number one pick puts the Cavaliers in a tough spot this year. They could choose to take Noel, but will do so knowing that he could turn into a walking injury and be ridiculed for their selection for years to come. At the same time, there really isn't anyone in the draft that has the same game changing potential that Noel possesses. Passing on him for someone that turns out to simply be just a good starter could create backlash as well.

Given the Cavs roster however, I think they would be smart to consider Otto Porter. The Cavaliers already have a player in build around in Irving and while another star would be great, Porter is the kind of complimentary second or third option that will be guaranteed to help a team win. He also fills a position of need and will make an immediate contribution. Plus the Cavs have recently used a top 5 pick on a power forward who can't shoot and Noel doesn't compliment someone like that much. Noel is more of a power forward currently, himself.

The debate between Porter and Noel is an interesting one and should be looked at with more seriousness. Noel is not the consensus first overall pick in the same way guys like Anthony Davis or even Kyrie Irving was a few years ago. The Cavs can go in another direction at #1 and they seem to be at least considering Porter. They were in love with Porter and would have taken him at #3 if they didn't luck into winning the lottery.

2013 Shooting Guard Prospects By The Numbers + Rankings

2013-05-29T19:59:00.000-07:00

% of Shots at the Rim

BJ Young - 46%

Archie Goodwin - 45%

Jamaal Franklin - 29%

Michael Snaer - 25%

Reggie Bullock - 23%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 21%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 21%

Allen Crabbe - 19%

Tony Snell - 18%

Brandon Paul - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Tim Hardaway Jr - 71%

Allen Crabbe - 71%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 70%

BJ Young - 69%

Reggie Bullock - 68%

Archie Goodwin - 65%

Brandon Paul - 64%

Michael Snaer - 62%

Jamaal Franklin - 61%

Tony Snell - 53%

% Assisted at the Rim

Reggie Bullock - 56%

Jamaal Franklin - 54%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 48%

Allen Crabbe - 45%

Tony Snell - 43%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 39%

BJ Young - 35%

Archie Goodwin - 29%

Michael Snaer - 28%

Brandon Paul - 24%

Analysis: These numbers are very disappointing for a guy like Tony Snell. Even though he will be asked to be a 3 and D guy at the next level, his strength and toughness is a concern. His play at the rim isn't encouraging in that regard. His biggest competition as a 3 and D guy, Reggie Bullock, posted respectable numbers here even though he may be the worse of the bunch in terms of driving all the way to the rim.

For the non-shooters of the group - Archie Goodwin and BJ Young - they both were unsurprisingly at the top of the first category. Their games right now revolve around getting to the rim and they have a great natural ability at doing it. They both create a lot of their shots at the rim and finish at a very solid rate when you factor in how much of these drives they are creating through traffic. Game film backs up their ability to get to the rim and I believe they might be the two best natural slashers in the draft. The rest of their game is what holds them back right now.

Michael Snaer's numbers look similar to Jamaal Franklin's, although Franklin has a lot more of his buckets at the rim assisted. Snaer's splits look more like a slasher than a shooter, even though he is a solid jump shooter. It shows how much of a role change Snaer was forced to play this season. He was asked to be a creator and slasher with the ball in his hands and that dropped his overall FG%. He continues to be one of the most underrated players in this draft and I don't believe there is a great gap between him and Franklin. As of now, it looks like Franklin will cost you a first round pick while Snaer may slip to the end of the second round.

For an athletic guy, Brandon Paul didn't get to the rim much nor did he end up on the receiving end of a lot of assists. He's a guy who needs to ball in his hands to be effective and likes to settle for jumpshots. For a streaky shooter who shot less than 33% from 3-pt range these last 2 years, thats not very good.

Hardaway Jr, Crabbe, and Caldwell-Pope all did fairly well in this area which holds true to the belief that they are currently the three most well rounded SGs in the group.

% of Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Allen Crabbe - 43%

Archie Goodwin - 37%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 36%

Jamaal Franklin - 35%

Tony Snell - 34%

Michael Snaer - 31%

Brandon Paul - 30%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 26%

BJ Young - 25%

Reggie Bullock - 20%

FG% on 2-pt Jumpers

Allen Crabbe - 45%

Tony Snell - 43%

Reggie Bullock - 38%

Brandon Paul - 38%

Jamaal Franklin - 37%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 36%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 35%

Michael Snaer - 31%

Archie Goodwin - 27%

BJ Young - 25%

% of Assisted 2-pt Jumpers

Tony Snell - 52%

Reggie Bullock - 46%

Allen Crabbe - 44%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 41%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 28%

Jamaal Franklin - 26%

Archie Goodwin - 20%

BJ Young - 20%

Michael Snaer - 6%

Brandon Paul - 6%

Once again, Archie Goodwin and BJ Young are on a different playing field than the rest. They are both just so raw as shooters and decision makers that even with all their talent, they will need a few years in the D-League before contributing. While they both have intriguing potential, its real hard to justify considering picking them in the first round. The second round, where there is no risk, is perfectly fair game to take them over other prospects however.

The biggest standout in this area is Allen Crabbe, who I believe is the best overall player in this bunch. Not only does he shoot the highest percentage of his shots from the mid-range area, he also makes the highest percentage. In the NBA, that will only be magnified more.

Brandon Paul and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both guys that did OK in this category, but their mid-range game is comprised of a lot of long 2-pt pull up jumpshots. There isn't a whole lot of savvyness to their play inside the arc.

Hardaway Jr and Franklin both take a good amount of their shots in the mid-range area and they create a lot of them as well. These two guys play like veterans inside the arc and have a knack for throwing opponents off balance. Franklin scores by getting to the line, while Hardaway has more of a finesse game working to his advantage.

Snell and Bullock had the highest percentage of their jumpers assisted, which goes right along with the kind of players they are. Don't look for them to create many of their own shots, although Snell has more potential in this area.

Snaer's mid-range game has always been poor, which is surprising given his skills and feel for the game. The fact that a player who generally should be an off guard only had 6% of his mid-range shots assisted, though again speaks for how tough of a role he was put in this year.

% of Shots 3-pters

Reggie Bullock - 58%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 52%

Brandon Paul - 52%

Tony Snell - 48%

Michael Snaer - 45%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 43%

Allen Crabbe - 38%

Jamaal Franklin - 37%

BJ Young - 28%

Archie Goodwin - 18%

3-pt FG%

Reggie Bullock - 43%

Tony Snell - 39%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 38%

Michael Snaer - 38%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 37%

Allen Crabbe - 34%

Brandon Paul - 33%

Archie Goodwin - 27%

Jamaal Franklin - 26%

BJ Young - 24%

% of Assisted 3-pters

Reggie Bullock - 94%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 90%

Allen Crabbe - 88%

Tony Snell - 85%

BJ Young - 76%

Archie Goodwin - 71%

Michael Snaer - 67%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 61%

Jamaal Franklin - 57%

Brandon Paul - 57%

By now I dont think I need to point out the differences between Goodwin/Young and the rest of the group, but at least Goodwin kept his 3-pt shots to a minimum. Young, however, took way too many threes.

You can say the same thing for Franklin, who took about the same percentage of 3s are Allen Crabbe. Thats just a lot of bad shots by Franklin and its not like he was the only offensive option on his team. His team was able to create good looks when they got into their offense.

You especially don't want to see Franklin creating so many of those shots - his amount of assisted jumpers tied Paul for the lowest. One thing you can notice is that Paul, Franklin, and Snaer all shot worse from three this year than in previous seasons. That appears to be because they took a lot of low percentage shots. I think all three are better shooters than their numbers this year show.

Caldwell-Pope had to create a lot of his jumpers as well, but it was in a little different way. KCP came off screens a lot and took one or two dribbles which took away assists, but it still doesn't show that he is able to create his own 3-pt shot. For the difficulty level and the amount of shots he took however, he did shoot a very respectable percentage.

Bullock and Snell both did a lot of what they will be doing in the pros in college. They shot a lot from deep, hit a lot, and didn't create much. They are spot up shooters and seem to be pretty good in that role.

Its amazing how much better Hardaway Jr has gotten throughout his career as a spot up shooter. He's even gotten better throughout the season as he shot 40% in conference play (last year in Big Ten play he shot 26%).

Crabbe only ranks as a middle of the road scorer, but its impressive how much his game has involved. Last year 51% of his shots were from beyond the arc. This season its at a modest 38%. Im not worried about his shooting at all - he always been a shooter and seemed to just suffer from fatigue at the end of the year. Im actually more encouraged by his numbers because he showed the ability to adapt and has developed a complete offensive repertoire now.

SG Rankings

1. Ben McLemore (top 5)

2. Victor Oladipo (top 10)

3. Allen Crabbe (late lottery to mid first)

4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (mid to late first)

5. Reggie Bullock (late first)

6. Jamaal Franklin (late first to early second)

7. Tim Hardaway (late first to early second)

8. Tony Snell (late first to early second)

9. Michael Snaer (early to mid second)

10. Brandon Paul (mid to late second)

The first 5 in my rankings are pretty firmly set in that order. Im not a huge fan of KCP, but he has too much potential to put him below the rest of the players who project as role players. Of the role guys, Bullock is my favorite and I believe he would be perfect on a playoff team picking towards the end of the first round.

The guys ranked 6-8 are all fairly equal in my book and I could flop opinions on them depending on the day. But they are all different kind of players and it really just depends on the system fit.

I left out Archie Goodwin, BJ Young, and Ricky Ledo from my list for a reason. They are so far away from contributing, I'm not sure if any of them are worth a first round pick. They will all likely be at the end of their first contract before they actually start seeing some of their potential. Its also hard to rank these guys with the rest because they are kind of on a different playing field. If they first 5 guys are off the board and we are in the second round, I think they are all fair game to be picked above the guys 6-8 on the list. They are a big risk, but in the second round, there really isn't much downside. As for which of the three I would prefer to role the dice on - Archie Goodwin would be my target. Ledo may have the most potential, but he's a huge unknown.

Scouting Report: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

2013-05-29T14:22:00.002-07:00

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope spent two years at Georgia, after electing to stay with his hometown school despite being named a McDonald's All-American. The decision has kept it from the spotlight, but it didn't make scouts forget about his natural ability to shoot the basketball. Caldwell-Pope earned SEC Player of the Years honors this season - his sophomore year - and scored in double digits every game of the season. In one of the most dysfunctional offenses in a Big 6 conference, KCP still found ways to score every single game.

Its hard to get a read on how good of a feel Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has for things on the offensive end. There weren't many talented players on Georgia's offense and the Bulldogs lacked any kind of rhythm on that end of the court. Their most effective offense play was to get their star player coming off of a screen near the arc in order to set up a long jumper off of either one or two dribbles. It was very ugly basketball, but with a shooter like KCP, he was able to bail them out quite a few times.

While KCP's shot selection has been questioned, it was more a product of the players around him. He did take some bad contested shots in transition, but it was because he knew that was the best look he'd get at the rim the entire possession. Georgia didn't ever create easy looks for themselves and Caldwell-Pope constantly had a man in his face in the halfcourt. The only play Georgia really had to get him open was the aforementioned screen play at the top of the arc and that was extremely predictable.

Smart defenders were able to give KCP a hard time on those plays because KCP generally took one or two horizontal dribbles to his left before shooting a long range jumper. There wasn't much creativeness in his game. Just a constant display of how talented KCP is in making extremely tough shots. Surely Georgia could have done a lot better job getting him open, but KCP could have also done a better job himself moving without the ball. He was forced to post up outside the 3-pt line a lot of the ball or catch the ball 5 feet beyond the arc to even get a touch. Watching Crabbe yesterday to do his scouting report, there is a stark contrast in their feel for the game and ability to move off the ball.

Again, part of this has to do with coaching and teammates. And its up to teams to figure out how much Kentavious Caldwell-Pope can improve with good coaching. But if you look at Caldwell-Pope on the defensive end, it doesn't seem like he has a great feel for the game on that end either. Thats not a positive indicator.

Caldwell-Pope is a faceguarder on defense and gets caught up on overplaying his man. He loses track of the ball very easily and doesn't understand help defense. While Kentavious Caldwell-Pope can be a tenacious defender and take a guy out of the game, he doesn't understand the team concept of defending. He doesn't have a huge wingspan to be a lockdown type in the NBA, so he's really going to have to improve his court awareness.

Compared to Crabbe, he gives a lot more effort but doesn't have the same awareness. Crabbe is kind of the opposite - he can get too caught up in ball watching and lose his man. Crabbe has a perfect frame as a defender, but doesn't have the mentality to be a big time defender. To me, their defense is kind of a wash. You aren't drafting either of these guys because of their defensive abilities.

In terms of offensive skills, Caldwell-Pope struggles to handle the ball. When teams aggressively trap when he's coming off of a screen, he often either makes a bad pass or is forced to pick up his dribble. If he doesn't get to his spot in two dribbles, he has a habit of just picking up the ball. He also doesn't feel comfortable attacking the pick and roll inside the arc, choosing instead to just pull up for jumper after jumper. His dribbles often doesn't get him anywhere vertical - they are more horizontal to the basket.

He does have a good first step and a nice jab step to set up his jumpshot. And he is very good shooting off of one or two dribbles, even when he doesn't get the greatest separation. He especially loves to shoot moving towards his left. KCP isn't a guy that will isolate and use a crossover to create separation however.

His jumpshot is extremely balanced and he gets it off very quickly. He is able to pull up in transition and has the range to pull up from beyond NBA territory. His balance is something you generally don't see from players of his age.

But his balance on his jumpers also has a downside. He doesn't seem to have the ability to shoot in a fluid motion coming off of a screen. He doesn't ever fade from the basket which is something all the great shooters are able to do to get off their shot. KCP is always straight up and down with his shot. With the screens Georgia had to use to get KCP open, its a wonder if a NBA team can/will be willing to put in that much of an effort to create a shot for him. Or if he will be able to improve his game to be able to do it for himself.

Creativity is certainly something he lacks and he appears to be very stiff in the hips. He plays the game very upright and combined with his short arms, it seems to limit his ball handling ability. Caldwell-Pope has good enough hands to get into the lanes - but a lot of that is because of his first step. He is a straight line driver with not much in between game besides his balanced pull up jumpers. Lots of his shots going towards the rim end up being low percentage shots because he doesn't do a good job of gathering himself and slowly plays down. He is, however, able to be an effective finisher in college because of his explosive athleticism.

Passing wise, he makes a lot of lazy passes and doesn't have great vision. He looks to be very one-dimensional as a playmaker. On transition opportunities, he seems just as content to pull up for a quick transition 3 ball versus trying to get all the way to the rim.

There is a lot of intrigue with Caldwell-Pope and in a draft like this, teams are desperate to find guys with enough talent to be taken in the lottery. KCP can be one of those guys that at least looks the part and has the shooting ability. He is athletic, a great shooter, can hit off the dribble, and has the ability to be a good finisher at the rim. He also gives good effort and there is a mystery to him about how much better he can get with improved coaching/teammates. He is viewed to have more potential than other shooting guards ranked below him because he has the best combination of shooting ability and athleticism.

Thats the basis of the hype around him. A more likely scenario for Caldwell-Pope is him turning into a guy like Nick Young. Someone who lacks a high basketball IQ and takes a lot of ill-advised jumpers. These kind of guys are very one dimensional and only add scoring, but don't even always do so in an efficient matter.

The more I look at these shooting guard prospects, the more I am convinced that Allen Crabbe is a better pick than Caldwell-Pope. Crabbe isn't as easy of a sell as a lottery pick, but he is the better overall player. And if you can get Crabbe 20th versus Caldwell-Pope in the lottery, you are getting a LOT better value.

To read my previous scouting report on Caldwell-Pope from last summer, click here.

Examining The Power Forward Class (Sans Anthony Bennett and Cody Zeller)

2013-05-28T21:04:00.000-07:00

In today's NBA, the power forward role has grown to be the most diverse position in the NBA. There are still some throwback post up guys, but there are plenty of more athletic combo forwards flying up and down in transition. You also have the energy guys, the big bodied rebounders, the stretch forwards, defensive specialist, and guys that contribute a little from each of the group. Because of the wide variety of power forwards, it can be hard to rank them. Different teams prefer different things based on style of play, need, and if they are ready to win right away.

In my opinion, ranking these players may not be the best way to do things. I feel it will be easier to divide them in groups and break them down that way and allowing the reader to decide which power forward would fit best for their teams needs.

At the top, there are two clear lottery talents that definitely lead the way in Anthony Bennett and Cody Zeller. I've covered both extensively already and feel that the gap between Bennett and Zeller is a lot smaller than what it is perceived by others. Kelly Olynyk is also in this group, although he isn't a lock for the lottery like Bennett and Zeller are. He could go there, but his floor certainly looks like the mid to late first round. Either way, Id like to use this platform to talk about the other power forwards in this draft who don't have much first round buzz.

*Names in italics represent a player having at least a 50/50 shot at getting drafted.*

The Bruisers

Richard Howell
Trevor Mbakwe
Jack Cooley
Reginald Buckner

These are the type of guys who use their physical strength to their advantage. They aren't the most skilled players, but they rebound the ball with great efficiency. There has been a history of these guys getting undervalued, but the league is steering away from the more with the evolution of the more perimeter oriented forwards. There are plenty of these guys spread throughout Europe and the D-League. Without much of an upside, it begs the question if they are even worth a second round pick given that you can pick up a more experienced one on the market somewhere. These are guys like Darnell Jackson, Josh Powell, Jeff Adrien, DJ White, Rick Jackson, and Richard Hendrix.

In my personal opinion, Richard Howell is the best of the bruisers this year. His biggest competition is Trevor Mbakwe, but Howell didn't disappear from games and his motor never stopped running. Thats what you look for in a bruiser. Howell is younger, more durable, more skilled, and doesn't have the character concerns Mbakwe has. Mbakwe though, is the bigger physical presence and has shown he can be a terror to stop at times.

The Stretch Fours

Erik Murphy
Ryan Kelly
Kenny Kadji
Grant Jerrett
Brock Motum
Christian Watford

The stretch four has came along as teams have looked to spread the court more. These guys are asked to knock down shots from behind the arc consistently, but help out in other areas enough so they are a liability. Certain teams use them more than others and good defensive systems help hide their weaknesses. They also generally need to play next to a rim protector and/or big time rebounder. Like with the bruisers, there are guys in the D-League and overseas that can perhaps do the job just as good if not better, while possessing more experience. These are guys like Maarty Leunen, Justin Harper, Rob Kurz, and Craig Brackins.

Of the guys on the list, I give Murphy the edge over Ryan Kelly because he's a better rebound and more of a fluid athlete. I also think you can make a very good argument that Murphy is the best shooter of the group as well. Along with those two, Grant Jerrett could be worth a draft pick although he is a couple of years away. Why waste a pick on a regular old stretch forward who can't contribute right away when you can sign a guy like Harper or Brackins for the minimum contract out of the D-League? Its a question to ponder when selecting in the second round.

*I covered Deshaun Thomas and Robert Covington with the small forward group, but both could also spend some time playing stretch forward in the league.

The Raw Athlete

CJ Leslie (Lacks BBIQ, strength, motor/consistency)
Tony Mitchell (Lacks motor, subpar production vs low-majors)
Amath M'Baye (Lacks skillset, position)
Norvel Pelle (Lacks skillset, experience, strength, BBIQ)
Deshawn Painter (Nondescript PF, lacks production for mid-major, strength, post game)

These are guys that possess the NBA level length and athleticism to make scouts drool, but for one reason or another, just aren't as good of players as their athleticism suggests. Whether it is energy, IQ, strength, offensive skills, or position - there is something missing that keeps these guys from being a lottery pick. Lots of teams draft these guys looking for a defensive stopper, but not all of them have that mentality to own that role. The intrigue of these guys comes from the perceived upside. Among the plethora of guys that fit this mold that are currently without a NBA contract are: Shawn James, Willie Reed, Stephane Lasme, and Chris Wright (Dayton).

Of these guys, Tony Mitchell has the best chance to make an impact in the NBA. He played in a bad situation that arguably effected his performance and could turn it on in the right situation in the NBA. He's a better gamble than CJ Leslie who has proved time and time again that he doesn't have the energy or IQ to be effective at the next level. Mitchell has more potential defensively than any other power forward in this draft.

The Skilled Big (Back to the Basket)

Brandon Davies
Jackie Carmichael

This is kind of your throw back power forward, the type that actually showed off a post game in college basketball. These aren't guys who are just bangers inside or undersized forwards, these guys have solid size and a legitimate post game to go to. In today's NBA, their games don't directly translate unless they are dominant with their back to the basket, but their skillset can be valuable on the right team. These guys usually come from college teams that featured them on offense and have a good feel for the game. Guys like Lawrence Roberts, Draymond Green, and Ryan Gomes all were this type of player in college.

For these guys to succeed at the next level, they have to be able to transform to bigger threats facing up. Guys like Gomes and Green have been able to translate their saavyness in the post to other parts of their games. Brandon Davies has already shown the same ability at Portsmouth and Carmichael also has shown the ability to pick and pop.

Undersized Energy Guys

Andre Roberson
Arsalan Kazemi
Ed Daniel
DJ Stephens
Taylor Smith
Elias Harris

There is some overlap with the bruisers in the sense that they earn their money through rebounding, energy, and defense. The difference is these guys are usually shorter and less bulky, while possessing more versatility on the defensive end. They can get up and down the court, move very well laterally on defense, and rebound the ball. These guys also generally lack much offensive skill at all, generating most of their offense off fastbreaks, cuts, and offensive rebounders. These are guys like Quincy Acy, Taylor Griffin, Demarre Carroll, and plenty more.

Andre Roberson and Arsalan Kazemi have the best chance at getting drafted as they have been two of the best rebounders in college basketball this season. They also both have experience playing the small forward spot. While neither have shown the offensive skills to play SF, they both have shown the versatility to make you believe they can cover both forward spots on defense.

Faceup PFs

Mike Muscala
Kelly Olynyk
Romero Osby
Laurence Bowers
Keith Clanton
Mouphtaou Yarou
Dante Taylor
Jared Berggren

This is a group with more diversity than others as you have some guys on the list that are closer to combo forwards while the top guys have legit big man size. Some of these guys are considered faceup fours because they don't have the range to be a stretch forward or any other noticeable attribute to fit any of the other categories. For most of these guys, they are pretty nondescript as players with the thought of playing in the NBA as a long shot. There are countless amounts of these types that have flirted with being drafted.

For guys like Muscala and Olynyk however, they are on this list because along with shooting from the outside, they can also take defenders off the dribble or work in the most. Unlike the other ones who aren't stretch forwards because they lack range, these two aren't stretch forwards because they can offer teams more than simply shooting from beyond the arc. And since the faceup PF is the most common among all the PFs in today's NBA, Muscala and Olynyk both already have their role carved out for them. Their transition to the NBA is a lot easier to see than a lot of guys in other groups, which is why both of them could potentially go in the first round.

Summary:

Overall, none of these guys look like potential stars and few will end up as starters. But there is value in each of the draftable players that a coach can make use of if he understands what they bring to the table. In today's game, a starting power forward is generally a guy that you can put in multiple categories from above. Whether it is a bruising power forward that plays with a relentless amount of energy (Faried, Millsap), a skilled big with a faceup game (David West), a bruising rebounder who can stretch the floor (Kevin Love), an athlete with tenacious energy (Kevin Garnett, Josh Smith), a skilled big with a bruising body (Al Jefferson), or an athletic forward with a faceup game (Thaddeous Young). Lots of these guys could be thrown into even more of the categories and that is what makes them special players.

In this draft (excluding Zeller and Bennett), maybe there are some players that are able to bring multiple things to the table and become starters. Muscala and Olynyk could both develop into even better shooters and become even more deadly with added NBA 3-pt range. Tony Mitchell could be a Josh Smith-type if he adds the necessary energy to his game. Richard Howell already is a bruiser with a relentless motor, but does he do anything else at a NBA level? Jackie Carmichael is certainly a skilled post player and could evolve to a nice do-it-all type of player ala David West? These are the guys that have the potential to break out be at least key rotational guys, if not good starters.

Scouting Report: Allen Crabbe

2013-05-28T18:24:00.000-07:00

Allen Crabbe always been a shooter dating back to his high school days. Throughout the years, Crabbe has slowly but surely became a more complete player to the point where he is now one of the most well-rounded offensive players in this years draft.

Crabbe showed his improved all-around offensive game more and more as the season went along. When Pac-12 defenses tried to chase him off the 3-pt line, he finally had an answer this season. He ended up shooting only 33.6% from deep in conference play but still scored over 17 points per game. Between being asked to play 35 minutes per game in conference play and all the attention he received, Crabbe may have not had his legs under him for his jumpers. That didn't stop him and his team from getting hot at the end of the season to advance to the NCAA tournament for the second straight year. He found other ways to score and get his teammates involved.

The Golden Bears took after their star player and won games based on their offensive play, not their defense. Even though Mike Montgomery was at the helm, he struggled to get his team to play effective defense and Cal ended up having to play a lot of zone. Getting Crabbe to buy in on the defensive end as always been a question mark and given that respected former NBA coach Mike Montgomery couldn't get him to buy in 100%, it still remains one of his biggest question marks.

Crabbe is certainly an offensive minded player and he sees his scoring being the biggest asset he can bring to a team. There are concerns with his mental toughness. He shows bad body language on the court at times, avoids physical play, and gets noticeably frustrated when things don't go his way. This was evident all season long - up until the last game of the season where Crabbe made some mental errors and proceeded to take it out on the referees. There is also the shoving incident that occurred when he and Coach Montgomery got into an argument on the sideline. Another concern may be the laidback vibe he gives off - the Cali vibe. Scouts will wonder just how much he is willing to compete.

These are the red flags with Crabbe. He may never reach his potential defensively and it will be interesting how he handles the inevitable struggles in the NBA.

However, there are plenty of things to like about Crabbe to get teams considering taking him as high as the late lottery.

His offensive game is excellent and he continues to show improvement each year. This shows that Crabbe is indeed willing to work and he does seem to have a chip on his shoulder to prove doubters wrong.

He started as just a shooter and that remains his biggest strength and what his game centers around. Even though he struggled to shoot the ball in conference play, his shooting at the next level is of little concern. He gets his feet set extremely quick, has unlimited range, and is able to get room for his shot. He's a dynamic shooter who can stay hot for an entire game.

With all the attention he has drawn for his shooting, Crabbe has been able to work on the rest of his game. Even though he slumped a bit shooting towards the end of the year, his confidence in the rest of his game seemed to be at an all time high. He was fine with teams playing him hard at the 3-pt line and took what they would give him. He didn't hesitate to drive the lane.

As a driver, Crabbe isn't a guy that will cross you up and drive past you all the way to the rim in an isolation situation. Much of his game revolves around screens and he uses them very well. He glides around screens with long strides and moves without the ball nonstop. At Cal, they ran a lot of down screens for him which he used effectively to score in the mid-range area. He curled around those screens near the baseline heading towards the foul line and showed off great touch with his floater.

He is very sleek and quick in these situations and the floater is deadly. He can hit the floater with either hand and off one or two feet. He can also stop and pop for a short mid-range jumper. He had a large amount of his offensive come in this area - 43% according to hoop-math.com - and hit a very good 45% of his shots in this area. His mid-range game is something to take note of.

Back to Crabbe as a driver. As I said, he's not the kind of guy who will break you down off the dribble. He does, however, use hesitations and ball fakes well. He also has a quick, long first step and is able to rip through the defender. More often though, Crabbe has a running start coming off an off ball screen when he receives the ball and can turn the corner into the lane that way.

Crabbe prefers to avoid physical contact inside and thats why he often passes the ball or chooses to attempt a floater in the lane. He also isn't super explosive off of one foot or strong with the ball at the rim. He needs to do a better job at staying more compact if he wants to step up his game at the rim in the NBA.

Due to his lack of finishing at the rim though, Crabbe has become an excellent passer. Instead of trying to finish for himself, he does a great job at finding teammates with wrap around passes around the rim or with other types of passes. He's a creative passer and gets a lot of zip on the ball. He seems the court well and does a nice job keeping his head up.

He's especially dangerous coming off of screens because he can handle the ball well with either hand. He isn't ultra crafty with the ball but with his first step and mid-range game, he generally just needs two dribbles to get to his spot on the floor. He is also able to handle it in the open court with either hand and does a nice job pushing the ball after a rebound. He has great top end speed and loves to get out and run.

Crabbe started the break a good amount at Cal because he was a great rebounder for a shooting guard. Crabbe is a lot better jumping off of two feet than one and could be one of the best rebounding 2 guards in the league. He would have gotten even more boards at Cal if he was willing to battle inside and get physical, but he generally relied on strictly his athleticism on the glass - which is very impressive.

Crabbe also has a great frame with wide shoulders that he has slowly began to fill out. You can notice the changes in his body from the beginning of the year up until he was last seen at the Chicago combine. He has the kind of frame that can put on weight, although its very questionable if he will ever use his frame the way he should. Crabbe also has outstanding length with a wingspan at 6'11.5. Those arms should allow him to continue to have a very effective floater game in the NBA and also be a very good defender if he ever chose to dial it in.

Even though I'm not counting on him to ever reach his defensive potential, I still see Crabbe as arguably the best shooting guard prospect after Victor Oladipo and Ben McLemore. The race is between him and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and while Caldwell-Pope may have more potential, Crabbe is the better player right now. Both are two of the most talented scorers in the draft, but Crabbe is so much better when it comes to moving without the basketball. Crabbe also has a better overall skillset.

Still, the questions remain about his mental game and could prevent him from being the third shooting guard off the board. He reminds me some of Klay Thompson, who also had red flags because of his laidback attitude and a marijuana charge. They both are great shooters with a very good feel for the game who improved their ball skills before entering the draft. Klay might have the edge as a shooter and in terms of creating his own shot, but Crabbe appears to have the edge in terms of his physical profile. I'd also argue that Crabbe is a better ball handler than Klay when he left Washington State.

It will be interesting to see where Allen Crabbe ends up on draft night because he is one of those guys who could end up sneaking into the lottery or find himself slipping near the second round. In this draft, I think it will be a mistake to let him slip past 20.

The Case for Otto Porter

2013-05-28T13:39:00.000-07:00

Otto Porter took the road less traveled to Georgetown, by choosing not to participate in AAU basketball during the summers. Instead, Porter played pickup games with his uncles and dad. He got tougher and learned how to play the game against grown men. Porter didn't spend his summer traveling and competing for a higher spot on recruiting rankings - he spent it honing his skills in his small town in Missouri.

He still got noticed by plenty of colleges and chose to play in the nation's capital for the Hoyas. He went to a school that emphasizes team play, passing, and versatility. It proved to be a perfect fit for his style. He's established a reputation as one of the safest draft picks in his class and an upper end role player. But is that all he can be? Most seem to cut off his potential at just being a good starter in the league - the next Tayshaun Prince has been a popular comparison.

Personally, I think Porter's potential is being overlooked. A lot of it has to do with his prep and college situations. He never played in a open system that has allowed him to showcase his skills. Thats what AAU or less structured offenses like Georgetown are for. Georgetown is famous for its slowed down tempo and team play - and has done a good job of hiding talented players in the past. Georgetown was a good fit for Porter in terms of style, but it did hide his potential.

The system at Georgetown did the same with Greg Monroe and even Roy Hibbert in the past. Coming out, they were viewed as solid pros that lacked aggressiveness and athleticism. It proved to be more of a system thing as both have greatly overachieved their draft stock since entering the NBA. Right now, Otto Porter is dealing with the same questions as they were coming out. With Monroe, scouts were able to come around to him having more potential than shown at Georgetown because they were able to look back into his AAU career. With Hibbert, they didn't have that same luxury because he was extremely raw coming out of high school. And for Porter, he didn't even play AAU.

Like Greg Monroe, Otto Porter also lost in the round of 64 in the NCAA tournament. Did that have any implications on Monroe's career? No, because Georgetown's offense isn't an offense that allows you to take over and dominate a game through scoring. Its why they consistently struggle in the NCAA tournament and it has nothing to do with the players - moreso the system.

If you go back and look at game film, there are very little holes in Porter's game - if any. And most will admit that he has a very good mid-range game, is an excellent passer, handles the ball well, and can finish at the rim.

The one major knock on his skillset is his ability to shoot 3-pters. But I already made a case why I dont believe that is legitimate previously:

A lot of people think Otto Porter's shooting is a fluke because only shot 22% from 3-pt range his freshman season. While that is reasonable, people are missing how great Porter was shooting mid-range jumpers his first season. Porter didn't play AAU and the 3-pt ball wasn't stressed to him as much as most kids. Instead, shooting mechanics were a priority and his are very consistent. According to hoop-math.com, Porter shot an outstanding 51% on 2-pt jumpers last season. This season he worked to extend his range back a few feet which resulted him him taking twice as many threes while making 42.2% of them. Porter will have to adjust even farther to the NBA line, but make no mistake that he can shoot the ball. His situation from year one to two is a lot like a young power hitter who didn't hit a lot of homers his first season, but had a lot of doubles. You know the power is there, it was just shown in a different way.

So even with all the questions answered about his skillset, there are still questions about his potential. No, he isn't an elite athlete but he has skills that elite athletes will never be able to obtain. He has a feel for the game that isn't common. And he has plenty of size and length to make up for his "average" athleticism.

I don't even think Porter is that bad of an athlete. He's not a one on one player who will over dribble and attempt to beat you with his quickness. But thats not always a good thing either. Porter beats you in ways you want your players to beat you. He thinks the game. He lets the game come to him and doesn't need the ball to be effective. At the same time, there is nothing in his skillset that says he can't take over a game. He did it at Georgetown against Syracuse through his passing, but he will have freedom to be a more aggressive scorer in the NBA.

Porter may not cross guys up and create his own shots from a traditional perspective, but he had no problem getting to spots and taking guys off the dribble in college. Porter can drive with either hand and understands angles extremely well. He is able to attack the defense through drives like a point guard - he doesn't necessarily get to the rim, but knows how to draw defenses and change speeds. He doesn't force anything with the ball in his hands. And he's a great passer who can drive and kick and make skip and lead passes. His unselfishness is one of his best traits and was magnified by Georgetown's Princeton offense.

But again, don't let that make you believe he can't be a good scorer. Don't make the same mistake scouts made with previous Georgetown players. I'm still looking for a reason why he won't be able to score in the NBA and can't find one.

He's certainly creative and crafty enough to score. Its no secret that Porter is crafty, but imagine him in an offense that allows him to show that. Porter can do many things with the ball, changes directions way too well for a man of his size, and really showed off this ability in transition. You want to see what Porter is capable of? Watch him at Georgetown in transition plays. He had a knack for getting fouled, finding a teammate on the run with a lead pass, crossing someone on the move, or making an acrobatic finish. His body control in these situations is amazing.

With his body control, Porter is able to be a good finisher. No, he isn't the next LeBron James or even Paul George when it comes to finishing at the rim. You won't see him throwing down many powerful dunks at the next level. But he has very good touch and finishes well with either hand. He is also very underrated when it comes to toughness and strength. He has a frame that could stand to add weight, but he is one of the toughest players in the draft. He loves playing inside and boxes out/crashes the offensive glass at all opportunities.

The best part of his offensive game is his mid-range game, something he showed quite often at Georgetown. He ate up the Syracuse zone twice by working the high post area. The mid-range game in college basketball is a dying breed, but Porter still managed to make it effective. Thats a testament to how good his mid-range game is. In the NBA, the mid-range game is so much more important and its scary to think what Porter could do with the much space to dissect a defense. His mid-range game is worlds ahead of most small forwards at this stage.

He is nearly impossible to cover in the mid-range area because he can beat you in multiple ways. The first is with his passing. He was the director of the offense at Georgetown and understands the game so well. He has outstanding vision in the high post, utilizes bounce passes, and can see over the defense. Finding a cutting teammate is always his first thought when getting the ball in the lane.

Porter also is a very polished jump shooter in the high post though. He has a turnaround jumper in the post, a faceup fadeaway jump shot, and a pullup jumper off the dribble. His release is quick and high. He gets his shoulders squared to the basket and gets good elevation through leg power. With his size, his shot is very hard to contest and he makes a very high percentage of these shots. Its why I trust that he can continue to shoot well from beyond the arc as well.

Porter is extremely versatile on the offensive end and understands mismatches for not only himself, but for his teammates as well. In the NBA game, his ability to see and take advantage of these mismatches will be even more valuable.

His ability to play without the ball in his hand will be valuable as well. He can play alongside a poor handling backcourt because he is such a good ball handler and passer for a 3, but he can also play next to ball dominant guys because he does a lot of his work off the ball. He will never be an isolation guy.

Porter works so hard off the ball, he usually gets to the foul line at least once a game simply because he was fouled without the ball in his hands. Whether a defender is trying to battled him in the post, keep him off the boards, or contain him on a screen Porter keeps his defender working. He knows how to come off screens, find soft spots in the defense (again, see Syracuse regular season games), cut to the rim, run the give and go, and get the ball off the rim.

Just because the most comparable player in terms of style may be Tayshaun Prince, it doesn't mean that is where Porter's upside ends. He is more advanced than Prince at this age and has a better frame. There really isnt a player better than Prince that you can compare to Porter in terms of style, but Porter has a clear advantage from a talent and upside perspective. If you compare Porter's sophomore year numbers to Prince in his senior year, Porter has the advantage (make sure you use pace adjusted numbers due to Georgetown's slow pace).

In my opinion, Porter will safely be a top 10 SF in the league. He won't surpass the top guys like LeBron, Melo, KD, Paul George, and say Andrew Wiggins but he will be right behind them. He doesn't have the ability to dominate like any of those guys, but he can help a team win more than any other small forward in the league other than that group.

Thats just him on offense. From a defense perspective, Otto Porter should be very good as well - if not better. The biggest knock on him as a defender is he lacks top notch lateral quickness to stay in front of quicker small forwards. But what he lacks in lateral quickness, he makes up for with his length and anticipation skills. I dont think we will have to worry about him being consistently beat off the dribble by many players, but for those ones that do - Porter does a great job funneling them into the teeth of the defense.

Defense these days is mainly about versatility and Porter should be able to switch on a lot of screens to cover bigger forwards and even some guards. He does a good job keeping his balance against quicker guys and recovering to contest shots. He communicates on defense, knows when it is appropriate to switch or gamble, and provides excellent help defense. He has a very high basketball IQ and it really shows on both ends of the court. Porter also rebounders very well. He boxes out and doesn't hesitate going into a crowd with stronger players.

Otto Porter has as much of a chance to be an all-star at the next level than anyone else in this draft and should be in consideration for the #1 pick. Cleveland was a big fan of Porter when they were projected to pick third in the draft, but things do change a bit at the #1 spot. Noel has to be considered heavily, but if they choose to be weary of his injuries, Porter should be the only other guy they consider. He is a perfect fit next to Kyrie Irving. If he slips past Cleveland, the Wizards will be in prime position to get him at #3 but could look to choose Anthony Bennett over him. If they do, that means Porter could slip to #5 or even farther which would make him a huge steal in this draft.

Scouting Report: Richard Howell

2013-05-27T11:47:00.000-07:00

Richard Howell led a solid North Carolina State recruiting class in 2009, a class that also brought in sharpshooter Scott Wood. Howell and Wood helped lay the foundation for a North Carolina State team that enjoyed a rise into the top half of the ACC during his 4 year tenure. After Howell and Wood came in, the Wolfpack brought in an even talented class with more star potential, with the likes of Lorenzo Brown and CJ Leslie joining the team in 2010. The addition of a couple of potential stars allowed Richard Howell to settle into a role as the garbage man, a role that he has crafted into an artform over the years.

"Do what you do the best that you can do it". Thats what Howell has done and it has enabled him to have a good shot at getting drafted this year. Often times Howell was one of the least talented players on the court for the Wolfpack, but found a way to be the most valuable. On a team with plenty of offensive talent, Howell ended up being their second leading scorer this year despite not having any plays ran for him. He was also their best rebounder (all four years), highly efficient, and was actually their leading scorer at one point in the season. Because of how physical and tough he plays, Howell got a little banged up as the season went on and a knee injury slowed him down in the final month of play.

Even though North Carolina State had a disappointing season - they entered the year ranked 6th in preseason polls but ended up losing in the Round of 64 - Howell was the one guy on the team who never disappointed and raised his draft stock through his play this season. He was the one guy whose energy was never questioned as well as the most consistent decision maker.

Playing for a talented North Carolina State team might have been the best thing for him to prepare him for the next level. The role he played at North Carolina State will be very similar to what he will do in the NBA. That is rebound, finish inside, and bring energy and toughness. Howell has plenty of experience playing without the ball in his hands and knows how to impact that game without getting touches. He worked for the ball by attacking the offensive glass. The things he was asked to do - he did them just about as well as anyone could. He excelled in a role and that is very appealing to NBA coaches. All coaches need a lunch pail type guy.

Offensively as a I mentioned, he does his best work on the offensive glass. You have got to make sure you put a body on him because he will be running to the rim every time a shot goes up. He's physical and a solid athlete for his size. He's quicker off his feet than he looks and also moves pretty well. He has good body control in the air and excellent touch and hands on putbacks at the rim.

Often times, Richard Howell will snatch an offensive rebound powerfully in the air and put the ball on the floor with one power dribble to gather himself. He's not necessarily a guy who will just rebound the ball and rise above everyone and dunk on them. He doesn't have that kind of vertical, size, or length. He's quick off the ground, but isnt a high/above the rim leaper.

Constantly bringing the ball down in the NBA may not be as easy as it was in college. But he does do a good job of using his body to create space - more space than even his size would suggest - and seeking out contact. He finishes well for a below the rim player, but will struggle against NBA athletes at the rim.

Howell even has trouble finishing over college players at times, but when he does miss, there is nobody better at chasing down his own shot. He is relentless and knows where to be to get the ball. He attacks the ball and is constantly moving which other college players really struggle with. If Howell doesnt make his first attempt, there is a good shot he will get the ball back and have another opportunity. Thats the level of his motor. It also shows that he is fairly quick off of his feet and can rebound outside of his territory.

From a skilled perspective, Howell isn't necessarily that bad. No, you won't see Howell getting many - if any - touches with his back to the basket. He has good footwork and a nice spin move, but he is better facing up. With his back to the basket, he hasn't shown a hook shot or turnaround jumper to consistently score the ball.

But as a face up player, Howell is pretty good from the high post. He's a turn and face guy when he gets it with his back to the basket. Part of the reason for his decent skill level with the ball may date back to his high school days when he was viewed as a tweener forward. There was talk that he was perhaps too small to play inside. He developed decent handles and has a pretty good first step to the rim.

His handles have improved throughout his college career and has helped him improve his field goal percentage in the process. He is able to now be more aggressive getting to the rim when he gets the ball in the high post. Howell doesn't like to settle for jumpshots anymore and is constantly looking for the highest percentage shot. He is right hand dominant, but is able to spin off the dribble to get defenders off his back. Its very hard to stay in front of a good spin move. He has a strong power dribble and likes to steady himself with a big jumpstop once he gets near the rim. His off the dribble game won't be featured in the NBA, but he does have some skills in this area.

He has enough skills where he should be able to play in the high post area. In addition to his handles, he also has good vision as a passer and a solid jumpshot. If he is able to his from 15 feet consistently - which is possible - he could have a career as a Udonis Haslem type.

Howell also has a good feel of sneaking around in open space to get easy buckets. He also rim runs in transition and gets down the court well for a big, bulky guy. North Carolina State wasn't pick and roll heavy, but Howell looked like a solid option as a pick and pop threat. He also did a good job coming off screens and rolling towards the basket. The jumpstop he has is really valuable to help him gather himself - something that Howell has a habit of doing. Between the jumpstop or one dribble, it seems Howell feels the need to get his legs underneath him before going up for a shot at the rim.

Howell is a high IQ player on the offensive end and most importantly, unselfish and willing to do the dirty work. His IQ carries over on the defensive end too. He is a saavy defender who is able to beat drivers to their spots on the court. He's a guy without a ton of lateral quickness, but is smart enough to get in good position to draw a lot of charges. He is certainly not afraid to give up his body. Howell may struggle against quicker PFs, but did average a steal per game in college. He will be able to hold his own in post defense, although his 8'9.9'' standing reach will make it easy to shoot over him. Howell also isn't a shot blocking threat.

Howell will make his worth on defense as a team defender. He does a very good job covering the pick and roll and recovering to his man. He also can get out and contest the guard if he decides to shoot. Drawing charges and controlling the defensive boards will help him carve out a role as a junkyard dog type guy. Something he is more than OK with doing.

He is the 6th best rebounder in my top 100, trailing only Mike Muscala, Trevor Mbakwe, Jack Cooley, Colton Iverson, and Andre Roberson. Considering Muscala and Iverson are both small school guys, Mbakwe is already 24, and Roberson is more of a combo forward - Howell's numbers look even better.

Overall, Howell isn't a guy who is very flashy or exciting. He doesn't have the same allure to teammates CJ Leslie or Lorenzo Brown who are also in the draft. All of them look like second rounders right now, but Leslie and Brown both could work their way into the first round. For Howell, he just isn't sexy as a first round pick. However, there is reason to believe that Howell will end up being the best North Carolina State player out of this draft. He was arguably their most valuable player this year and showed more improvement year to year than either of the other two. So while everyone may get caught up in the potential of Leslie and Brown, it seems as if Howell is doing a better job of improving himself as a player. Howell is the only one who has already shown that he can play a role in the NBA and excels as a rebounder - the most easily translatable stat from college to the pros. He will be a guy any NBA coach will be happy to have on their team and should most definitely get drafted in the second round.

Scouting Report: Erik Murphy

2013-05-24T10:52:00.001-07:00

Coming out of high school, Erick Murphy was a consensus top 50 recruit. He decided to come to Florida where he spent his first two seasons behind Alex Tyus, Vernon Macklin, Chandler Parsons, and Patric Young but his patience paid off. Unlike many players you see today, Murphy didn't transfer when he saw he wouldn't be able to see consistent playing time. He decided to stick it out, build up his strength, and then he was able to play a big role for the Gators in his final two years.

It was a good choice for his draft stock as well. Florida's offense has produced many pros like Murphy - skilled offensive players who really have a good feel for the game. Florida runs a very pro-style system with lots of movement and spacing, complete with pick and pop scenarios and an inside-out attack. As a stretch forward, Murphy thrived in the offense.

The best part of Murphy's game and obviously his calling card in the NBA will be his ability to stretch the floor. Murphy has a pure stroke from deep and hit 45.3% of his 3-pt attempts in conference play this season. He's very much a pure shooter, but can continue to work to speed up his release. He had games where he simply was unable to miss. He hit 5 3-pters in a game twice and in addition, had a perfect 10-10 field goal night against Wisconsin, many of them coming on jumpers. Along with shooting above 40% from deep each of his three seasons, Murphy also shot above 75% at the free throw line as well.

In Florida's system, Murphy was able to get plenty of good looks from deep. Their offense does a great job of preparing guys for the pros, forcing players to make reads and react. Its a system with a lot of freedom and spacing, running very much like a NBA offense. Its helped plenty of former Gators transition into the NBA as offensive guys. Brad Beal, Matt Bonner, David Lee, Mike Miller, Al Horford, Chandler Parsons, Udonis Haslem, and other prominent names have been able to come in right away and find a fit on offense. There are plenty of shooters and offensively skilled guys that come out of college each year, but Billy Donovan's guys usually come out of school with an edge over most that carries over to the next level. He's seen a lot of his players overachieve for their draft position.

With Patric Young occupying space down low, Murphy was able to play the stretch forward role he will be asked to play in the NBA. Playing alongside three guards who could also shoot, Florida's offense was extremely dangerous and shared the ball well. Murphy was perhaps the most valuable and versatile part of the attack. Murphy forced big men to come out and play them. If they didn't, he would hit the trail 3 with ease. If they did, Murphy could take them off the dribble.

Murphy isn't very quick off the bounce, but he is a good ball handler and uses his body well. His strength and willingness to play physical is an underrated part of his game that helped him get to where he needed to be with the ball in his hands. He has good balance on his drives and is always under control. Murphy doesn't always seek to get all the way to the rim, but if he can just get to the foul line, he usually finds a way to get up a good shot.

A lot of times, that good shot is a hook shot. And almost always, its with his right hand. Murphy has very good footwork and if he gets to the free throw line, he can post up and create a scoring opportunity. He has counter moves in the post and can fake either way multiple times, but his moves are always intended to finish a shot going over his left shoulder.

While he has propensity to go right, I think Murphy has more of an ability to go to his left than he has shown. Around the basket, he uses his left hand to finish without a problem. His combination of footwork, touch, ability to use both hands, and added strength has made him a very good finisher at the rim in college.

In the pros, Murphy doesn't have the length or athleticism to finish consistently inside, but its good to see he has other ways to finish. He's not very quick off the floor and lacks foot speed. His wingspan is short at only 6'10.5, but he has a surprisingly high standing reach at 9 feet. With that kind of physical profile, you can't expect Murphy to be anywhere close to effective at the rim as he was in college.

His little right handed hook also won't be as good. In college, Murphy seeked out contact whenhe shot it by going into defenders bodies. It wasn't as graceful of a hook shot as you'd expect from a guy like Murphy. It was more of his only way to get to the foul line. Murphy never was able to get to the line on straight drives from the perimeter or closer in - the fouls he drew were more of the more physical variety.

Despite improved physical play, Murphy will never be one of those tough rebounders down low who can get easy baskets. His toughness shows that he can play and rebound in the NBA - perhaps better than other stretch four candidates like Ryan Kelly and Grant Jerrett, but nothing more.

Luckily for Murphy, his jump shots are often just as good as layups. And he has the makings of a finesse mid-range game as well, complete with a very smooth turnaround jumper. He knows how to square up, use jab steps, and get the defender to pause just long enough to get the shot off. He also is a good passer, especially from the perimeter where he sees the court very well. He makes quick decisions, keeps the ball moving, and does a good job moving without the ball after he passes it. Being a good passer as a stretch 4 is important because you will be expected to pass from the perimeter like a guard a lot and it also helps free yourself up.

Murphy was a mismatch nightmare in college - able to post up smaller defenders and able to take bigger guys off the dribble. In the NBA, he will still be able to provide mismatch problems to a degree. More importantly, he will be able to spread the floor and consistently hit jumpers. He will fare very well as a pick and pop threat and a guy who fits trail threes.

Defensively, Murphy will be lucky to be average at best due to his lack of lateral quickness and overall athleticism. He will struggle to stay in front of quicker guys, doesn't have the length to contest shots, and will still be weaker than the scoring post players in the league. Murphy is a decent rebound and displays a very good set of hands.

Overall, Murphy looks like the best stretch forward prospect in the second round. He has competition from Ryan Kelly, Grant Jerrett, Kenny Kadji, and other guys likely to go undrafted, but Murphy seems like the most well-rounded and ready to contribute of the group. I also think he is the best shooter of the group - which is perhaps the most important thing. The Florida pedigree won't hurt his draft stock either. Look for him to go somewhere in the second round and potentially have a Matt Bonner-type career in the right situation.

Scouting Report: Brandon Davies

2013-05-22T22:07:00.000-07:00

At one point in time, Brandon Davies was more known for being Jimmer Fredette's teammate and his violation of BYU's honor code. Playing alongside Jimmer, Davies was an afterthought in scouts minds watching BYU games at the time, but has slowly maneuvered himself into potentially being selected in the 2013 NBA Draft. He's done so through improvement and an increased role - a role that features him as a rare playmaker and go to guy in the post. If a team is looking for the next Draymond Green in this draft, he's the closest thing to him you will find in terms of style of play. He possesses a true post game, toughness, craftiness, high IQ, good footwork, and a strong passing ability.

Since the season has ended, Davies has seen his stock increase with good showings at both Portsmouth and Chicago. He was the MVP of the event in Portsmouth. The previous two MVPs, Jimmy Butler and Kyle O'Quinn both went on to be drafted. At Chicago, he helped himself by showing more of a faceup game and measuring with legitimate power forward size.

Showing well at these events has been big for Davies because his role is certain to change in the NBA. Its unlikely that Davies will ever be featured as a go to player offensively in the post, so he will have to show that his game can transition to more of a face up threat. He will be used more in pick and roll/pop situations and showing that he can knock down the mid-range jumper consistently will be key. Neither are things that he got to do much of at BYU, although he did fare well shooting jumpers from 15 feet. Davies was even able to hit 5 of 14 college 3-pt attempts this year.

Even though he will need to play a different style in the NBA, Davies post game is far from worthless. For one, seeing him in a featured role has also forced him to become a decision maker. In that aspect, Davies has done a great job making decisions from the post.

Davies also shows plenty of patience in the post and handled the double teams he routinely saw with relative ease. He's an excellent passer from the high post and its not him just simply kicking it out to the open man. He founded cutters consistently, adjusted shots in midair to instead pass to a teammate, and developed all sorts of crafty ways to deliver the ball to teammates.

Davies ability to work hard off the ball is also evident through his post game. He constantly worked for deep position inside and sealed off his defender uses that solid base of his. He seeks out contact and is always looking to put his body on someone. His teammates did a great job rewarding him for his hard work by the way of post entry passes. Unlike most teams nowadays, Davies was able to kick the ball back out of the post, reestablish better position, and be confident that he would get the ball back. He is a natural with his back to the basket and really thrived as the focal point of an inside-outside attack.

In terms of post moves, Davies has them too. He uses his pivot foot as well as anyone and his footwork overall is excellent. He's shown off a little "dream shake", numerous up and under moves, a quick face up move off the bounce, and plenty of other moves. When it comes to having a bag of tricks to go to, Brandon Davies is your man in this draft. He definitely has an old school post game.

He does tend to be overly predictable. While he has plenty of flare, he almost always ends up going over his left shoulder. In college, players are more prone to flail at all the style and fall into Davies' trap. In the NBA, the scouting report will eventually catch up to him to the point where he will need to establish more moves going over his right shoulder. He has shown that he can hit shots with his left hand, he just needs to get more comfortable making moves towards that side of the basket.

Another one of Davies moves is a big time pump fake, one that will draw comparisons to Sam Young's back at Pitt. Once again though, it will be far less effective in the NBA due to scouting reports and smarter players. He does his pump fake with only one hand and it should be obvious that he isn't going to shoot out of that position. Its just a reaction thing, but NBA players will know to look for it and be more disciplined on not biting on it.

Still, that is just one of Davies' crafty moves and its a good example of just how creative he is. Its a big part of his game and some of it certainly will translate and help him in the NBA. With all his hesitation moves, he will be able to at least keep shotblockers at bay. Thats big for Davies because he isnt the most explosive player around the rim. With his strength and moves though, he was able to convert 76% of his shots at the rim - a very high number. Davies understands how to attack shotblockers by going right into their body. He also will do a lot of reverse finishes to use the rim to help shield his shot from getting blocked.

Davies is also able to make quick reads in the post and make some deceptively quick moves to the basket off the bounce. He's a solid ball handler from the power forward spot and while he won't blow by a lot of guys, he does know how to use one or two dribbles effectively to get him a better shot. Davies attacked the rim off of one or two dribbles a lot this year.

His transition to the NBA will actually be similar to Cody Zeller's. Davies too was asked to play around the rim and attack a lot, while showing that he struggled to finish against good athletes. They both showed passing skills, high IQs, and flashed the ability to play more of a stretch forward role when they had the chance. Davies isnt as quick as Zeller, but he is tougher and more skilled with his back to the basket.

Davies is certainly a guy that you have to watch his best games and balance them out by watching his worst games. At this best, he looks unstoppable in the post. But Davies wasn't always facing the greatest competition. When he did, you could really see his struggles finishing inside. Davies still scored plenty against top competition, but was inefficient in two games against Baylor and Gonzaga, as well as Iowa State and Notre Dame (to his credit though, Davies was still able to get to the line against these opponents, something he does very well).

He's also a guy that the more you watch him play, the more you appreciate him simply because he shows more and more creativity each game. Whenever you watch Davies, you are bound to see him bust out a new move or make a pass you usually don't see anyone else make.

Defensively, Davies struggled a lot with foul trouble. He plays the game physically on defense as well and is aggressive, but it ends up taking him out of games too much. Way too much for a star player like Davies. Davies, however, also had to deal with playing behind a very weak perimeter defense that forced BYU to switch to zone defense a lot later in the season. Watching Davies in the zone, you can see just how coordinated he is and how well he understands where to be on defense. He is not the quickest guy laterally, but his coordination will help him hang with quicker power forwards in the league. As will his strong frame and 7'2 wingspan.

He came up with a very high amount of steals for a power forward which is indicates that his athleticism may be a bit underrated. While Davies won't be a playmaker or a intimidating presence on defense, he does project as a solid positional defender as long as he keeps his fouls down.

In terms of rebounding, Davies isn't your typical second round steal at PF who puts up huge rebounding numbers. He did exceed 10 rebounds per 40 minutes each of his past three seasons however. He does a good job rebounding in his area and pulls down the ball with power. He's a guy you can trust to come down with the boards he should. He always boxes out and throws his body to his man and is a great team rebounder, who is more focused on just helping a teammate get the rebounder than simply being out to pad his own stats.

Overall, Davies will need to make a transition offensively in the NBA, but it is something he has already shown he will be able to make if his play at Portsmouth and Chicago are any indication. He seems to be a better shooter than the numbers indicate and his craftiness should translate to the pick and roll game as well. He certainly is already does a good job setting hard screens.

While Davies was a star at BYU, he has great qualities of a role player and should have no problem changing roles - just as Draymond Green did this year for the Warriors. He's unselfish, has a high IQ, plays with energy and toughness, knows how to set up his teammates, and is a high character guy by all accounts. He seems to be willing to do whatever his team needs him to do in order to win. At BYU, it was to be the focal point of the offense out of the post. In the NBA, his role will be more confined, but could be just as important to a playoff team. Right now, Brandon Davies is looking like a solid second round steal with the ability to come in and make an impact right away.

Post Lottery 2013 Mock Draft

2013-05-22T06:43:00.001-07:00

Updated 5/24/13

Cleveland Cavaliers - FR Nerlens Noel, F/C, Kentucky
Orlando Magic - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
Washington Wizards - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
Charlotte Bobcats - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
Phoenix Suns - JR Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
New Orleans Pelicans - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland
Sacramento Kings - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
Detroit Pistons - SO Michael Carter-Williams, G, Syracuse
Minnesota Timberwolves - FR Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA
Portland Trailblazers - SR CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh
Philadelphia 76ers - SO Cody Zeller, PF, Indiana
Oklahoma City Thunder - 1992 Rudy Gobert, C, International
Dallas Mavericks - 1994 Dario Saric, F, International
Utah Jazz - 1993 Dennis Schroeder, PG, International
Milwaukee Bucks - 1994 Sergey Karasev, SF, International
Boston Celtics - SO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Atlanta Hawks - FR Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
Atlanta Hawks - JR Allen Crabbe, SG, California
Cleveland Cavaliers - 1994 Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF, International
Chicago Bulls - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina
Utah Jazz - JR Kelly Olynyk, PF, Gonzaga
Brooklyn Nets - JR Gorgui Dieng, F/C, Louisville
Indiana Pacers - SR Erick Green, PG, Virginia Tech
New York Knicks - SO Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
Los Angeles Clippers - 1991 Glen Rice Jr, G/F, D-League
Minnesota Timberwolves - JR Tim Hardaway Jr, SG, Michigan
Denver Nuggets - SR Mason Plumlee, C, Duke
San Antonio Spurs - 1993 Alex Abrines, SG, International
Oklahoma City Thunder - 1993 Livio Jean-Charles, F, International
Phoenix Suns - SO Tony Mitchell, PF, North Texas
Cleveland Cavaliers - 1994 Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, International
Oklahoma City Thunder - JR Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
Cleveland Cavaliers - FR Ricky Ledo, SG, Providence
Houston Rockets - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
Philadelphia 76ers - JR Tony Snell, SF, New Mexico
Sacramento Kings - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky
Washington Wizards - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State
Detroit Pistons - SR Solomon Hill, SF, Arizona
Portland Trailblazers - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State
Portland Trailblazers - 1991 Nemanja Nedovic, PG, International
Memphis Grizzlies - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
Philadelphia 76ers - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit
Milwaukee Bucks - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
Dallas Mavericks - JR Andre Roberson, F, Colorado
Portland Trailblazers - JR Deshaun Thomas, SF, Ohio State
Utah Jazz - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
Atlanta Hawks - SR Pierre Jackson, PG, Baylor
Los Angeles Lakers - SO Adonis Thomas, SF, Memphis
Chicago Bulls - SR Isaiah Canaan, PG, Murray State
Atlanta Hawks - SR Muke Muscala, PF, Bucknell
Orlando Magic - SR Richard Howell, PF, North Carolina State
Minnesota Timberwolves - FR Grant Jerrett, PF, Arizona
Indiana Pacers - SO BJ Young, G, Arkansas
Washington Wizards - 1991 Bojan Dubljevic, F/C, International
Memphis Grizzlies - SR Erik Murphy, PF, Florida
Detroit Pistons - SR Brandon Davies, PF, BYU
Phoenix Suns - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
San Antonio Spurs - SR Colton Iverson, C, Colorado State
Minnesota Timberwolves - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
Memphis Grizzlies - JR Lorenzo Brown, PG, North Carolina State

Scouting Report: Grant Jerrett

2013-05-20T16:54:00.000-07:00

Grant Jerrett was part of Arizona's very talented recruiting class this past season, when they brought in three big men all in the top 15 by RSCI rankings. As expected, playing time was a problem and Jerrett ended up splitting time at power forward with fellow freshman Brandon Ashley. By the end of the year, playing time was still inconsistent for Jerrett and it looked more like Ashley would earn the starting spot heading into next year. With two more talented forwards coming to Tuscon next year (Aaron Gordon and Rondae Jefferson), Jerrett's playing time situation didn't look like it would improve much. So instead of settling for another year of playing 20 minutes a game at the most, Jerrett decided to declare for the NBA Draft.

It is an interesting decision for sure. Generally, if you have to leave your college team because of playing time, that isn't a good sign. But this Arizona Wildcat team is very talented up front and filled with multiple NBA prospects. Ashley, Tarczewski, and incoming forwards Rondae Jefferson and Aaron Gordon may have more upside than Jerrett, but Jerrett has NBA size and a skillset fit for the power forward position.

This year at Arizona, Jerrett was mainly a pick and pop threat. He has an odd looking shot, but a very consistent stroke without any unnecessary movement. He also has a fairly high release point and his jumper looks similar to the Spurs' Matt Bonner. Over half of his shot attempts this season were three point attempts, which should give you a good idea of what kind of player he projects to be as a pro.

He shot 40% from 3-pt range and 82% at the line, both very impressive numbers for a freshman big man. He has a big body that helps him set screens and he does a good job getting himself open when popping out behind the 3-pt line. He doesn't force up any shots and has a very pure, balanced stroke.

As an athlete, Jerrett doesn't have the body you'd expect from a NBA player. He looks very unathletic, uncoordinated, and out of shape. He's a little chubby, has high shoulder, and will never be the most explosive or quickest big on a team. But Jerrett is more athletic than he looks and moves pretty well once you can get past looking at his awkward running style.

The biggest asset he has physically is his size. Even though his frame isn't that of a normal basketball player, he does have a body that can take up space and bang inside. At this point, Jerrett shies away from contact and doesn't have much of a post game, but that can change once he gets stronger. Its obvious that his frame hasn't had any kind of weight training and he gets backed down in the post too easily for a guy his size. His height may never be used to its full capabilities inside, but it will allow him to get his jumper off with ease.

Unsurprisingly, Jerrett was just an average at best finisher at the rim. He didn't show he could finish with contact nor was he very explosive. But he did show good touch around the rim and the ability to move around the baseline without the ball. You have to keep in mind that Jerrett wasn't featured in the offense much this year so there may be some things he is capable of that he just hasn't shown yet.

Still, up to this point there is no notable mid-range game or post game. He shot poorly on his 2-pt jumpers, although they were scarce.

Jerrett does have a fairly good feel for the game though and is able to put the ball on the floor when the defense closes out on him. He is a skilled player who can finish with both hands as well. Compared to Brandon Ashley, Jerrett relies on his size and skills more while Ashley lives more off of athleticism and feel for the game.

In the NBA, Jerrett will be more suited for a team that wants to spread the court and run pick and pop plays. Unlike other stretch 4s, he isn't a guy who can also beat you in transition, so a halfcourt offense is more suited for his needs. His conditioning needs a lot of work as he was seen with his hands on his hips and breathing heavily often at Arizona.

Defensively, Jerrett doesn't have the strength to handle back to the basket guys yet, but did a surprisingly good job getting out and defending the pick and roll in space. His footwork improved throughout the year and he did a good job recovering and picking up block shots. He averaged 2 blocks per 40 minutes which is a testament to his timing and ability to not take himself out of defensive plays. There is also some truth that defenders weren't intimidated by his presence inside.

Overall, Jerrett isn't your typical one and done prospect despite his high ranking out of high school. It was a shock to see him enter the draft and while it may not have been the wisest decision, it is now too late to turn back. Getting an invite to the Chicago combine was a good sign and he was able to show his size and shooting ability there. He was said to be one of the best shooting big men at the event.

When it comes to stretch 4s, I like his upside more than Kenny Kadhi or Ryan Kelly, but teams don't usually look to develop a stretch 4. Teams generally take a stretch 4 with the idea of them contributing to their team sooner than later. For Jerrett, he still needs to gain plenty of experience and get himself in shape before contributing. Thats what makes his draft stock interesting - I don't think a team wants to use a first rounder on a stretch four that will be in the D-League the next two years. Its more likely to see Jerrett go towards the mid to late second round range. His game actually fits Europe well so that could be a good option for him to develop the next couple of years if he believes he has the maturity to play overseas.

Scouting Report: James Ennis

2013-05-19T20:37:00.000-07:00

In his second and final year of playing Division One college basketball, James Ennis showed a lot of improvement and has placed himself in a fairly favorable spot to get drafted. Ennis has always possessed outstanding athleticism and starred in the high jump in junior college in addition to playing ball. After transferring to Long Beach State from Ventura College in his junior year, Ennis seemed to gain even more confidence this season and became a more aggressive player.

Ennis's game is based around his outstanding athleticism and he does a great job of using it in game situations. He really gets after it on the defensive end and averaged 2 steals and 1.5 blocks per 40 minutes this season (pace adjusted). Ennis plays with a lot of energy and is one of those guys who can come out of nowhere to block shots. He chases guys down in transition for blocks and is aggressive when it comes to playing help defense. He is very intimidating when he closes in on you and he was very aggressive when it came to double teaming opponents. He forced a lot of bad passes just by bringing defensive pressure and also came up with a lot of steals. He plays the passing lanes very well, has cat-like reflexes, and very good length for wing defender.

Ennis is a lanky, wiry strong guy and pulled down 7.5 boards per 40 minutes (pace adjusted) which was up from 5.6 his first season with the team. He has good hands and was able to go over defenders backs and tip the ball to himself. His aggression and effort on defense carries over to the boards.

His team was also undersized and needed him to provide a paint presence. They looked to get up and down the court as fast as any team in the nation. Ennis was able to start breaks right out of rebounds, but showed shaky ball handling skills.

At this point, he can create plays off the dribble but only because of his elite athleticism. His athleticism at the mid-major level allowed him to mask his shortcomings as a ball handler, as he is most definitely poor in that area. He didn't let that stop him from attacking the basket though, although he was often forcing up circus shots. He was unable to drive into the lane in a controlled matter and most of the shots he put up ended up being really awkward. The only way he got them off was because of his elevation.

Because of his lack of ball handling or control, Ennis has no mid-range game of which to speak of. His team as a whole performed poorly in the halfcourt and they lacked structure. Ennis' shots off the dribble were pretty much freestyled attempts without much rhyme or reason. One thing he did do well was going inside without the ball and capitalizing on offensive rebound opportunities. He is able to control the ball well on tip-in plays.

Ennis also scored baskets by cutting towards the rim once a teammate had the ball in the post. There wasn't much structure in these plays or cuts, but they were effective. In the pros, Ennis may benefit from a system that will focus more on getting him open off of these plays. He's a great finisher at the rim due to his athleticism, strength, and also his creativity. His creativity hurts him on perimeter drives because he is completely out of control once he reaches the rim, but it works to his advantage off cuts without the ball.

As a shooter, Ennis is able to hit a good percentage of his long range shots when he has the time to get them off. He shot a respectable 35% from behind the arc each of his two season at Long Beach State. The bigger problem for Ennis shooting the ball is his release. He isn't a guy you have to worry much about from behind the arc because it takes him too long to get off the shot. In the NBA, defenders close out quickly and he will need to really work on speeding up his shot.

Although it doesn't project to be a big part of his game at the next level, Ennis did show some potential creating his own jumper off of one or two dribbles. His ball handling is too shaky for anything more, but he has a really quick stepback crossover move. With more repetition he could develop more confidence to use it more often. But he has to use it smart - a lot of his stepback moves resulted in long 2-pt attempts just inside the 3-pt arc.

Ennis is also a good teammate who looks to get others involved. He can make some impressive passes, but turns the ball over too often because he makes things too difficult. He had a negative assist to turnover ratio this year, which again speaks to how poor of a ball handler he is.

Overall, Ennis will have to make a name for himself on the defensive end but he has all the tools to do just that. He showed on a consistent basis that he can be an impact defender in college and with his athleticism, he will still be one of the better athletes in the NBA. He will need to improve his focus and really key in on his man to man defense instead of being a guy who is all over the court. Teams will certainly likely his defense as well as his rebounding ability.

In the end though, he will need to be able to prove he can space the court as well as play smarter. He hasn't played in a structured offense up to this point so there will be a learning curve. He will also have to adjust to playing without the ball in his hands and against better competition. He did benefit from playing the likes of North Carolina, Ohio State, UCLA, Syracuse, USC, and Baylor in one of the nation's toughest non-conference schedules this year.

In terms of his ranking among other small forwards, I see him behind other second rounders like Solomon Hill and Adonis Thomas due to his lack of potential and polish. But compared to Carrick Felix - a guy who is projected to be the same kind of defensive player - I like Ennis better because he's an even better athlete. Ennis hasn't locked up a draft spot in the second round, but he has improved his stock since college ended with strong showings at both Portsmouth and the combine in Chicago. He could end up being a guy like James White who had to spend years in the D-League before getting a legit shot in the NBA.

2013 Small Forwards Prospects By the Numbers

2013-05-19T17:41:00.000-07:00

A week ago, we took a loot at the point guard prospects by the numbers. Now we will see how the small forward prospects grade out based off the numbers provided by hoop-data.com. I excluded Otto Porter from this study as I view him as the best small forward prospect by a considerable margin.

*For Glen Rice Jr, I used his data from his previous year at Georgia Tech.

% of Shots at the Rim

Carrick Felix - 43%

James Ennis - 35%

Solomon Hill - 27%

Robert Covington - 25%

Shabazz Muhammad - 24%

Glen Rice Jr - 21%

Deshaun Thomas - 20%

Adonis Thomas - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Glen Rice Jr - 76%

Deshaun Thomas - 74%

James Ennis - 72%

Carrick Felix - 71%

Shabazz Muhammad - 65%

Robert Covington - 64%

Solomon Hill - 63%

Adonis Thomas - 62%

% Assisted at the Rim

Adonis Thomas - 58%

Shabazz Muhammad - 58%

Carrick Felix - 56%

Deshaun Thomas - 48%

Robert Covington - 44%

James Ennis - 41%

Glen Rice Jr - 34%

Solomon Hill - 14%

% Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Adonis Thomas - 59%

Shabazz Muhammad - 53%

Deshaun Thomas - 45%

Robert Covington - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 37%

Solomon Hill - 31%

James Ennis - 24%

Carrick Felix - 19%

FG% 2pt Jumpers

Solomon Hill - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 40%

Adonis Thomas - 39%

Deshaun Thomas - 39%

Shabazz Muhammad - 37%

Carrick Felix - 34%

James Ennis - 31%

Robert Covington - 25%

% 2-pt Jumpers Assisted

Adonis Thomas - 54%
Shabazz Muhammad - 47%
Deshaun Thomas - 43%
Robert Covington - 41%
Carrick Felix - 32%
Solomon Hill - 23%
Glen Rice Jr - 17%

James Ennis - 14%

% of 3-pt Shots

Solomon Hill - 42%
Glen Rice Jr - 42%
James Ennis - 41%
Robert Covington - 38%
Carrick Felix - 37%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Adonis Thomas - 24%
Shabazz Muhammad - 23%

3-pt FG%

Solomon Hill - 39%
Carrick Felix - 38%
Robert Covington - 38%
Shabazz Muhammad - 38%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Glen Rice Jr - 34%
James Ennis - 33%
Adonis Thomas - 29%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted

Shabazz Muhammad - 100%
Carrick Felix - 96%
Deshaun Thomas - 96%
Adonis Thomas - 92%
Robert Covington - 87%
Solomon Hill - 82%
James Ennis - 68%
Glen Rice Jr - 68%

Observations

James Ennis - James Ennis stands out in this group as a finisher which comes to no surprise. He's the best athlete among the 8 prospects and his team pushed the ball with every chance they could get. You can tell that his team lacked any kind of halfcourt structure on offense which forced Ennis to create more than he should have to. Even though Ennis isn't a good ball handler, he was forced to create a large amount of his jumpshots. He does have a quick step back jumper move, but that isnt his game. Playing in a halfcourt setting in the NBA will be a big adjustment for him. He doesn't have a mid-range game and relies on circus shots in the lane. He will have to improve his jumper. He hit 3s at a good rate but his release has to get quicker.

Carrick Felix - Felix is the most similar to Ennis and both of their strengths are more on the defensive end. Felix played in a much more structured offense however, which complimented his strengths well. He didn't have to create at all and while he also lacks a middle game, he wasn't put in a situation where he had to score off the dribble. Like Ennis, he is a real solid finisher at the rim. He has also turned himself into a good spot up 3-pt shooter. I view Ennis as a better prospect than Felix because of his athletic edge and added playmaking ability.

Solomon Hill - Hill is one of the worst finishers at the rim in the group, but makes up for it with his polished mid-range game. He has the best floor game of the group and has the most versatile offensive attack. He doesn't have to get all the way to the rim to score. He also tested out as the best shooter in the group by leading in both 2-pt% and 3-pt% while taking a higher volume of 3s than anyone. He's a good spot up shooter but also can get his shot off the dribble.

Glen Rice Jr - The more you look at Glen Rice Jr, the more you see how much the situation at Georgia Tech prevented him from showing his true potential. Rice Jr had to create almost all his shots at Georgia Tech as he was near the bottom in assisted shots in all 3 categories. He was also the best finisher at the rim and in the mid-range area, despite not having the advantage of getting any easy baskets. The one area Rice Jr doesn't show well here is 3-pt shooting, but he might actually be the best shooter out of the 8. He proved this year in the D-League that he has no problem with the NBA 3-pt line.

Shabazz Muhammad - There is a big concern with Shabazz's ability to get to the rim based off these numbers. He was in the bottom half in terms of % of shots at the rim while receiving more assisted plays at the rim than anyone. Considering Shabazz also scored a lot of offensive rebounds, the numbers prove the Muhammad was unable to put the ball on the floor and get all the way to the rim at UCLA. He also seemed incapable of creating room for his jump shots. All of his 3-pt makes were assisted and he trailed only Adonis Thomas in most 2-pt jumpers assisted. His mid-range game, however, does show promise.

Deshaun Thomas - Thomas didn't really standout in any one category. We know he can shoot the ball, but he didn't shoot it at an exceptional clip. And there is a big concern with his ability to get shots off at the next level. A lot of his shots were assisted and he doesn't really have any reliable moves to get his shot up. As a small forward at the next level, he will struggle to shoot over longer defenders due to his lack of quickness and height. He did convert well at the rim in limited attempts, but that isnt his game.

Adonis Thomas - Thomas' numbers at the rim couldn't be any more. Despite shooting less at the rim than anyone and having the highest percentage of his shots assisted, Thomas still was last in converting at the rim. Thats a red flag and very puzzling for someone with his size and athleticism. These numbers scream lack of aggression. He did fair well in the mid-range area, which passes the eye test when watching him as well. Thomas will also need to improve his range as he shot worse from 3 this year than anyone.

Robert Covington - For a guy his size and playing against the competition he did, Covington really didn't show as well at the rim as you'd like to see. More concerning was his FG% on 2-pt jumpers since he projects to be a jump shooter at the next level. He ranked last in that area by a fair margin. Tennessee State needed a guy who could create shots this season and he proved that he struggled in that area. Still, Covington brings a nice combination of athleticism and outside shooting that could eventually get him into the NBA.

After watching more film on each of these prospects and taking a look at them by the numbers, here are my personal revised rankings:

1. Glen Rice Jr (late lottery to mid-first round)
2. Shabazz Muhammad (mid-first round)
3. Solomon Hill (early second round)
4. Adonis Thomas (early second round)
5. James Ennis (second round)
6. Deshaun Thomas (second round)
7. Carrick Felix (second round to undrafted)
8. Robert Covington (second round to undrafted)

Others worth noting: James Southerland, Rodney Williams, Will Clyburn

Takeaways from the NBA Combine

2013-05-17T18:06:00.000-07:00

The NBA Combine generates a ton of buzz every year in Chicago and the results of the combine are often overanalysed and discussed ad nauseum. NBA teams can get up in the numbers too, but the good teams understand that each number should be taken with a grain of salt. Some numbers are more relevant than others and some players' numbers are also more important.

The combine does present an opportunity to see all the draft prospects in a gym together and see who passes the eye test. Generally, its good to at least note the outliers in both directions. Rudy Gobert had measured with a 7-9 wingspan in Eurocamp previously, but seeing him against other NBA prospects in the flesh makes more of an impact. Gobert generated the most hype out of anyone these past 3 days in Chicago.

Other things to note is who consistently goes hard in drills, who looks out of shape, and shooting mechanics. Getting caught up in the number of shots a guy makes isn't a good idea, but seeing how quick and consistent a prospects stroke is worth watching. For the most part - you know that bad and the good shooters. But having them all in one gym, you can get a better idea on who has the quickest releases. If you are among the best shooters AND have a quick release, that is something noteworthy.

The athletic testing is where you have to be most careful. There are players who train specifically to do well on these tests during the few weeks prior to the event. When you look at data from previous years, there really is no pattern in terms of who succeeds and who fails. Plenty of guys have flopped in athletic testing and went on to have great NBA careers, while there have also been countless workout warriors. If you take a look at the trainers players are training with, you do notice that certain trainers produce better results than others.

For example, Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo both killed the athletic testing and have been working with the same trainer who constantly produces results. Kenny Kadji, Shane Larkin, and Adonis Thomas all worked out with the same trainer as well and performed better than many thought they would.

This doesn't mean that their leaping ability is better than they showed in college, it just shows that they have practiced these drills. Its important to understand the different approaches prospects have coming into the combine and how it affects their testing. Nothing beats watching game film to measure a guy's athleticism.

Another thing to note is the difference between standing vertical and the maximum vertical. For a big man, more times than not, they will be jumping from a standstill position off of two feet in games. Thats why it was impressive to see Cody Zeller measure with the top standing vertical in the entire draft.

At the same time, the most important thing for big men is getting off the floor quickly - the combine doesn't measure that. While Zeller can just high (which is needed to make up for his short standing reach), he doesn't get off the ground super quick.

Rudy Gobert only produced a standing vertical of 25 inches, but with a record high standing reach, there is no reason for him to have to be able to jump 12 feet in the air. The game in the NBA is played above the rim, but not that high. As long as Gobert gets off the ground fairly quickly - and he does - his vertical is not a big deal at all. He won't need to jump higher than 25 inches to ever block a shot in the NBA.

Meanwhile, guards need to do better in the maximum vertical leap. There are two foot jumping perimeter players and then there are the guys that can fly to the rim on the run by jumping off of one foot. Victor Oladipo does that as well as anyone. Ben McLemore is another guy who excels throwing down dunks on the run.

You also have guys that test well athletically, but don't ever show that kind of athleticism in games. Their numbers are more irrelevant. Kenny Kadji comes to mind.

A guy like CJ Leslie killed the lane agility and ran the court as fast as anyone, but he doesn't know what to do with that speed in the games. Its great to run the court fast, but it is even better to run the court every possession. Leslie is a guy who takes a lot of plays off and doesn't always go at full speed - which is why you shrug off his sprint times.

Leslie's agility times should also be taken with a grain of salt. His feet more faster than his brain. While he has quick feet, all that does a lot of times is take him out of position quicker. Instincts and IQ and more important when playing defense inside - not agility. All this says about Leslie is he can run around on defense like a chicken with its head cut off - without any idea where he is suppose to be.

Shane Larkin posted a billboard day during the athletic testing and that is something that will help him out. During the measurements, he measured with a wingspan less than 6 feet. In the history of the draft, very few guys with that kind of length have ever gone in the first round. To counter that measurement, Larkin went out and dominated the drills today. So when his size is questioned, scouts can turn to his "freakish athleticism" to justify why Larkin will be different from the gang of T-Rex armed guards that have failed before him.

Anyway, the top 5 seems to be as wide open as ever after today. Noel only weighed in at 206 pounds, which is obviously extremely light for a big man. Noel said his injury has caused him to drop weight, but even at 220 pounds he still needs to add a considerable amount of weight.

Porter, Burke, and McLemore remain my next three best prospects. They all did fairly well in Chicago. At this point, I tcould make an argument for any of the four to be the first overall pick. My board is extremely fluid at the top 4 spots and Noel is no sure bet to go #1. He's the biggest risk for sure and its hard to turn down sure things like Burke and Porter.

After them, Rudy Gobert has begun to creep up in the picture. As mainly a college basketball guy, I hadn't watched Gobert near enough this year but as I watch more of him, the more I become convinced he could make a push towards the top 5. One of his biggest concerns is his weight, but he weighed more than guys like Dieng, Olynyk, Mbakwe, Withey, Zeller, and Muscala. Thats almost as big for him as his massive length. Oh yea, and Gobert is nowhere near as raw as Ajinca was. Thats not a fair comparison.

Scouting Report: Solomon Hill

2013-05-16T21:53:00.001-07:00

Solomon Hill is a known commodity in the college basketball community at this point and has developed a reputation as a hardworker throughout his career. Even back in high school, Hill started off as an undersized mid-major forward who was working on becoming more perimeter oriented. He eventually became a top 100 recruit and landed at Arizona, where his versatility made him into one of the best players in the Pac-12.

Solomon Hill started off as the "other forward" on Arizona, playing alongside fellow class of 2009 prospect, Derrick Williams. Williams, of course, left after his sophomore year and ended up being taken as the number two overall pick in the draft.

At the time, they were fairly interchangeable on both sides of the ball between both forward spots. Williams took over the team, became a star, and overshadowed Solomon Hill in the process. Since then, Williams hasn't necessarily lived up to expectations in the NBA and has proven to be more of a fit at power forward than on the perimeter.

Hill has benefitted from staying in college and noticeably improving every year. Like Williams, Solomon Hill has great intangibles and a strong work ethic. He has transformed himself into a guy who played within 15 feet of the basket his first couple of years, to becoming strictly a perimeter player this season. He has improved both his volume and percentages each year from behind the arc as well as his assisting and A/TO ratio.

At this point in his development, Hill is definitely closer to a legit small forward prospect than a tweener. His ball handling has become a strength, he shoots the ball with his feet set very well, and he has always had good passing skills and feel for the game.

As an athlete, I have some reservations about Hill's ability to play the same game in the NBA that he currently plays in college. He doesn't possess good quickness and isn't explosive off the bounce. In college, he makes up for that with a vast array of moves. He utilizes hesitations, ball fakes, and can use a spin move in the lane while maintaining perfect balance. Hill also uses a jumpstop a lot, something you don't see a lot of players using nowadays. Hill is solid at changing directions on drives as well, but his moves aren't quick.

With these moves, Hill is able to manuever himself anywhere on the court while being under complete control. Thanks to his strength, he doesn't have to be quick to the rim. He can also put his head down and bully his way into the lane at times. He doesn't get great separation all the time, but has more than enough strength to muscle up shots in the lane. He also has an arsenal of post moves from his early career and hits the turnaround jumper with consistency. Everything Hill does with the ball is very smooth and under control, albeit a little mechanical.

In the NBA, it will get tougher to rely on those moves. Not only will it be harder for him to get by defenders and use strength, but it will be harder for him to finish in the paint. Hill doesn't have great height for a small forward and he will need to do a much better job at drawing contact. Hill only got to the line 3.5 times per game, despite driving into the lane a lot. A lot of it has to do with his ability to avoid avoid contact with pump fakes, but it also shows that he's not explosive going straight to the cup.

The good thing with Hill is, he's not a guy who needs the ball in his hands to be successful. He's also effective as a spot up shooter and moving without the basketball. He can cut to the rim and finish in traffic. He's also a fairly explosive jumper off of two feet, although he isn't elite. His explosiveness at the rim is better than his first step, lateral quickness, or ability to change directions. He's more creative and skilled than guys with similar profiles like Sam Young, Alonzo Gee, David Noel, Denham Brown, and Joey Graham.

Speaking of lateral quickness, that is another one of my concerns with him translating to the next level. Hill has been able to hang his hat on his solid defense in college, but how much of it will translate? His wingspan is only average for a small forward at 6-9.75 and he doesn't have the speed side to side to compensate for it. Hill reminds me of Sam Young from a physical and athletic perspective, but Young has almost a 2 inch longer wingspan. I don't doubt that Hill will be a good defender, but will he be a good enough defender to overcome his average scoring output?

Overall, Hill does possess a lot of the qualities of a solid role player. With the success teams have found in drafting experienced SFs in the second round, you can be sure the Hill will hear his name called on draft night. Guys like Chandler Parsons and Jimmy Butler have shined in past weeks and should help his stock. However, Im just not convinced he is the same type of player either of those two are. He isnt as fluid or tall as Parsons (both are great passers, but Parsons passing ability has translated to the NBA because he can still see over defenses, Hill will have a tougher adjustment) or as great of a defender as Jimmy Butler. Hill needs something to hang his hat on at the next level and you can be sure he will continue to improve his game. He is a guy you can't count out and he deserves to have his name called on draft night.

Scouting Report: Carrick Felix

2013-05-16T15:59:00.001-07:00

Carrick Felix has taken an interesting path to get to this point in his career. He was an under the radar prospect in high school, ended up playing JUCO ball alongside Pierre Jackson, and was once committed to play at Duke following that. Felix ultimately ended up at Arizona State (where he has played the last 3 years) and didn't emerge onto the draft radar until this season at the age of 22 (he will be 23 when the 2013-14 NBA season begins).

Anytime a player struggled to make a big impact until his senior season, there will be red flags to answer. For Felix, he has certainly matured over the years. The birth of his daughter this past July forced him to mature and gave him a new focus on the game of basketball. During this past year, Felix also earned his master's degree in Liberal Studies.

But it just wasn't a new found focus on the game that helped him. Arizona State and coach Herb Sendek opened up their offense into a more pro-oriented system this year when he added a couple of former NBA coaches to his staff. Part of the reason for the change of system was to take advantage of freshman point guard Jahii Carson's skillset, who also played a big part in the emergence of Carrick Felix.

Playing in a more open offense, the game looked like it came easy to Felix. You could tell that Felix had played next to a dynamic point guard before (Pierre Jackson) and his ability to work off of Carson was excellent.

Felix isn't much of a playmaker himself, instead he's a guy who you usually will only see taking a maximum of two dribbles. He doesn't have much of a mid-range game either. But what he does is fill his role very well and takes smart shots.

Most of his points come from cuts to the rim, beating guys in transition, offensive rebounds, and cuts spot up 3-pters. As NBA statsheads will tell you, scoring from those spots on the court is an efficient way to make a living. He doesn't over-complicate anything, Felix just makes the plays that are given to him.

His best asset is his motor and you can see him consistently beating the other nine guys down the court on both ends. He became a guy who could get chase down blocks in transition. He was also very versatile and whenever he was covering a power forward, he made it very hard for them to keep up with him running the floor.

In the halfcourt, Felix was able to get to the rims with straight line drives to either direction. He has a good first step and is an explosive finisher in the lane. When he can, he will finish with an emphatic dunk over the defense. The best thing about his drives are that he knows his limitations. He knows he doesn't have an in-between game or the ability to change directions and weave through opponents. Because of that, he makes very few mistakes. He takes to dribbles to the rim and if the lane is open, he will finish. If not, Felix is perfectly content on kicking the ball back out and does a solid job passing.

He will never be the most creative player or much of a scorer, but he will have a very easy transition to the NBA. What he did at Arizona State is the same thing he will do in the NBA. He won't need to tone down his game at all and teams will never have to question his energy level. They also don't have to worry about his maturity or work ethic.

In terms of shooting the ball, he has made significant strides every single year but still needs to get better. He shot 37.4% from three, up from his two previous rates of 30% and 20%. The adjustment to the NBA 3-pt line will be a concern as he is finally just getting himself accommodated to the college line. A guy like him will need to consistently make shots to be able to play in the NBA and he will likely need to spend time in the D-League until he gets used to the NBA line. He does do a nice job sliding to the short corner behind the arc and hitting those 3s. Felix certainly understands where the most efficient shots are on the court.

His free throwing shooting also isn't a good sign for his overall touch. As I said before, Felix hardly ever shoots a mid-range jumper or any floaters. And his free throw shooting percentage of 65% makes you believe he doesn't even shoot inside the arc during practices. His shooting didn't get better as the season went on either. He shot just 61% from the line in conference play.

Defensively, Felix can be a valuable asset. He is a bouncy athlete with a very high motor. In college, he was able to cover just about any position on the court. He came up with steals and blocks, displayed good hands, and attacked the glass hard for rebounds. Felix has worked on his body over the years too and has added a good amount of bulk. He doesn't have a great build to be a power wing, but he certainly has the mindset. With a nonstop motor, long arms, and a good defensive IQ Felix projects to be an above average defender at the next level.

Overall, Carrick Felix looks to be your prototypical mid to late second round pick. He needed the right system in college to flourish and it will be even more important that he finds a good situation in the NBA. Even with the right situation though, he will need to improve his shooting to even see the court. Still, Carrick Felix is a low maintenance guy who has the motor and maturity teams like at the end of their bench. He won't have a problem transitioning to a role player in the NBA because he pretty much already is one. Look for him to go to smart team in the 50s. He could turn into a poor man's version of Jimmy Butler down the line.

The Case For Adonis Thomas

2013-05-16T11:56:00.001-07:00

One of the quickest risers in this draft has been Glen Rice Jr. He's a guy who didn't put up very good numbers in college, took a unique route to the D-League, and saw his stock take off in the process. He was a talented player at Georgia Tech, but he just didn't stand out as much as a guy with his talents should. He wasn't always aggressive and his unselfishness was mistaken for passiveness. If he had entered the draft after he was suspended last season, Glen Rice Jr wouldn't have even gotten drafted.

That changed in the D-League where the game is much closer to the NBA. College basketball and the NBA are two completely different games, while the D-League can almost work as a way to bridge the gap between them. With a 24 second shot clock, less offensive sets, quicker pace, and a more open court things are certainly different from college. Players aren't restricted by their teams offensive sets and they are put in a position where they have to be more aggressive. Players can rely more on their physical gifts and instincts. Their versatility is also able to show more.

I already profiled Glen Rice Jr (read here), but Adonis Thomas has similar qualities that could help him be a better fit in the NBA than he was in college. Unlike Rice Jr, Thomas isn't going directly to the D-League however, and is instead choosing to jump right into the draft. And while his stock is down, a GM would be mistaken to sleep on Thomas the same way they slept on Rice Jr because of their situation in college.

The beauty of scouting is to be able to see players in different systems and project their skills to a higher level. Nobody can debate that Thomas or Rice Jr underachieved in college and I'm not trying to do that. I know all the question marks about Adonis Thomas. And a lot of them are the same questions that were brought up about Glen Rice Jr last year.

Like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas is a very good athlete who often times blended in too much in college. Everyone yearned for him to be more aggressive. When he was, you saw his ability to get all the way to the rim and finish. His ability to get to the rim is even better than Glen Rice Jr's.

Also like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas has a high basketball IQ and a good feel for the game. He moved well off the ball, made the right passes, and played within his teams offense.

Adonis Thomas is also very versatile and can score in the post, mid-range, and also step out and hit jumpers. You don't see a lot of small forwards doing that in college, but you see plenty more of it in the NBA. The NBA is all about mismatches and Thomas can take advantage of them. Same thing goes for Glen Rice Jr, who was able to show a post game once he got to the D-League.

If Adonis Thomas took the same route as Glen Rice Jr, I don't think there is any question he'd be in the discussion for a first round pick. Some may question his decision to leave Memphis with his stock at an all time low, but it was obvious that the situation at Memphis wasn't a good fit for him. Thomas stuck it out for two years, was professional and a team player throughout, and did what the team wanted him to do.

He played power forward a lot even though he will be a perimeter player at the next level. That has hurt his stock, but it should act as a testament for his willingness to do anything to help his team. Not many former top recruits would willingly play out of position. Thomas even added weight to bang down low, which in turn limited his athleticism. Since the season, he's already started to work on shedding that weight and getting back to the point where he was an elite athlete. He no longer has to focus on playing inside, although the skills he learned playing in the post will be valuable to him.

Thomas also wasn't able to focus on his perimeter shooting in college and thats something I expect him to be able to improve fairly easily with repetition. You've probably been reading this thinking that the biggest difference between Glen Rice Jr and Adonis Thomas is their shooting ability - and you'd be right.

But Thomas did shoot well in a limited number of attempts his freshman season and has always hit the mid-range jump shot well. His his stroke is consistent and his mechanics are consistent (albeit a little slow). Some of the biggest surprises in the draft the past couple of years are guys who were said to be poor shooters - such as Kawhi Leonard and Chandler Parsons - but like Thomas, both of them were asked to do a lot more things around the rim at college. Now that Thomas is able to focus on slimming down and working on his perimeter shooting, he will start to look even more like a prototypical wing prospect.

One thing that Thomas was able to hang his hat on was his defense and that should get even better as he continues to complete his transition to a full time perimeter player. He competes, has a 7 foot wingspan, good strength, a solid motor, and the versatility to be an impact player on that end of the court. He didn't always make as big as an impact as he could have for Memphis, but he will at least be a very solid defender with the potential to be great. Sticking with the comparisons to Glen Rice Jr, Thomas has the better size and frame along with the athleticism.

Adonis Thomas and Glen Rice Jr certainly aren't the same player nor do they possesses the same skill set. But they do both have similar playing styles and a feel for the game that often gets overlooked when evaluating college prospects. Smart team play turns into criticisms about their passiveness. In college, they are looked at to be stars of their teams. Neither did that. But in the NBA, they will be looked at to be another piece of the puzzle that helps you win games. Nobody will be complaining about their passiveness in the NBA nor will they be as passive. Both have great instincts and athleticism and will be able to utilize those abilities much more freely.

Adonis Thomas is currently projected by some analysts not to get drafted which is a complete oversight and overreaction to someone they once considered a lottery pick. While his lack of production warrants concern and a drop in his stock, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a successful NBA player. Unlike a lot of big time athletes who leave early without much production, Thomas isn't a guy with an unrealistic view of himself nor does he have any character concerns. He's actually a pretty cerebral player. And while I am not vouching that he should be a lottery pick as he was once projected, he deserves late first round consider and should definitely be off the board at the top of the second round where contracts aren't guaranteed.

For more on Adonis Thomas, check out my scouting report on him following his freshman season http://nbaprospects.blogspot.com/2012/08/scouting-report-adonis-thomas.html

2013 Point Guard Prospects By the Numbers

2013-05-13T14:36:00.002-07:00

In part two of our look at the "other" point guards in the draft, I examine each of their statistics and put some meaning behind their numbers. All stats are courtesy of hoop-math.com, a site dedicated to logging play by play data. Big thanks to them for all the work they do. These numbers aren't perfect because box scores aren't always accurate, but they do give you a pretty clear picture with the large sample size.

% of Shots at the Rim

Myck Kabongo - 53%

Ray McCallum - 45%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Nate Wolters - 30%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 25%

Phil Pressey - 25%

Erick Green - 23%

Isaiah Canaan - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 12%

FG% at the Rim

Nate Wolters - 67%

Erick Green - 67%

Ray McCallum - 66%

Pierre Jackson - 64%

Shane Larkin - 62%

Lorenzo Brown - 61%

Myck Kabongo - 60%

Isaiah Canaan - 56%

Matthew Dellavedova - 53%

Phil Pressey - 45%

Assisted at the Rim

Ray McCallum - 39%

Nate Wolters - 26%

Pierre Jackson - 24%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

Erick Green - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 21%

Shane Larkin - 18%

Myck Kabongo - 14%

Isaiah Canaan - 13%

Phil Pressey - 7%

Analysis: Myck Kabongo gets to the rim as well as any player, but thats about his only move. He doesn't do a good job at controlling himself on the way to the basket and is in the bottom half in terms of FG% at the rim.

You can also see that Ray McCallum got a lot of easy buckets at the rim, but did a good job playing without the ball in his hands. Detroit really pushed the pace and McCallum slid over to the off guard spot without a problem at times. On the contrary, you can see that Canaan, Pressey, and Kabongo are the 3 guys who NEED the ball in their hands the most to be effective.

If you're looking for the best finisher, it looks like a toss up between Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Green's numbers are especially impressive given the lack of talent around him and the competition he went up against. He still showed the ability to move without the ball and was able to finish in the lane thanks to his soft touch.

Pressey, Canaan, and Dellevadova faired really poorly based of these numbers. That shouldn't be a surprise. All three guys were hesitant to go to the rim, thus limiting their chances, but they were still unable to be efficient. And while Canaan and Dellavedova make up for it with their outside shooting, its something Pressey will really need to improve on in order to keep defenses honest.

% of 2-pt Jumpers Taken

Erick Green - 49%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Phil Pressey - 37%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Matthew Dellavedova - 33%

Isaiah Canaan - 29%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 26%

Ray McCallum - 24%

Myck Kabongo - 23%

FG% 2-pt Jumpers

Shane Larkin - 45%

Nate Wolters - 45%

Erick Green - 43%

Isaiah Canaan - 42%

Matthew Dellavedova - 42%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Pierre Jackson - 35%

Ray McCallum - 35%

Lorenzo Brown - 30%

Myck Kabongo - 12%

% of 2-pt Jumpers Assists

Pierre Jackson - 13%

Isaiah Canaan - 12%

Ray McCallum - 10%

Erick Green - 10%

Shane Larkin - 9%

Matthew Dellavedova - 4%

Lorenzo Brown - 3%

Nate Wolters - 3%

Phil Pressey - 2%

Myck Kabongo - 0%

Analysis: Once again, I think Nate Wolters and Erick Green measure up the best in this area. Both get a lot of shots off in the mid-range area and make a high percentage. And in the NBA, the have the size and feel for the game to continue to have success in the mid-range area.

Lorenzo Brown and Myck Kabongo were the two with the worst numbers. Neither did very well at the rim either, although both get most of their offense from inside the arc. That obviously brings up some questions with how they will be able to score in the NBA. Both will need to improve their pace of play as well of their jumpers to be able to play in the NBA.

Shane Larkin shot as well as anyone from the 2-pt range and probably has the best floater of anyone in the group. But his ability to get his mid-range jumper off and change speeds is still holding him back from being on the level of Erick Green and Nate Wolters. The same can be said for Pierre Jackson, although he didn't shot the ball as well the rest.

% of Shots from 3-pt Range

Matthew Dellavedova - 55%

Isaiah Canaan - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 49%

Shane Larkin - 44%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Ray McCallum - 31%

Erick Green - 29%

Myck Kabongo - 25%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

3-pt FG%

Matthew Dellavedova - 40%

Erick Green - 39%

Shane Larkin - 39%

Nate Wolters - 38%

Isaiah Canaan - 36%

Pierre Jackson - 36%

Ray McCallum - 33%

Phil Pressey - 32%

Myck Kabongo - 30%

Lorenzo Brown - 27%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted

Myck Kabongo - 75%

Erick Green - 66%

Lorenzo Brown - 65%

Matthew Dellavedova - 62%

Ray McCallum - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 47%

Nate Wolters - 46%

Isaiah Canaan - 41%

Phil Pressey - 39%

Shane Larkin - 37%

Analysis: Matthew Dellavedova shows why he's in this discussion to begin with as he hit 3-pt shots at the best rate and also the highest volume.

After him, the next 4 guys in terms of volume 3-pt shooting also happen to be the smallest. Pressey, Jackson, Larkin, and Canaan all get a lot of their offense from deep. Small guys have to be able to knock down shots consistently and for Pressey and Jackson there is a question with just how good of shooters they are. You also see why there is reason to question a guy like Jackson's shot selection and ability to run an offense. Despite his ability to break down a defense, he takes a lot of deep 3-pters outside of the flow of offense. While Jackson can be a dynamic scorer at times, he isn't consistently solid at just making the simple/right plays. That hurts his overall PG skills.

On the other end of the spectrum, its impressive how little Erick Green settles for 3-pt shots despite his success from there. Part of it may because of his shot release - his shooting mechanics have been developed for him to get mid-range jumpers off - not shoot from deep. But there is no doubt that he is one of the best shooters in this group.

Shane Larkin may not be a better shooter than Dellavedova, but he is certainly dynamic and may be the best at creating the shot next to Isaiah Canaan. He had the least amount of 3-pters assists, but still hit 39% at a high volume. Combine that with his 2-pt shooting prowess and there is little doubt he can light it up from all over the court. He's got some poor man's Steph Curry to him even though he's shorter and not QUITE the shooter.

Overall: The most balanced scorers look to be Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Both had a lot of pressure on them to score the ball, but still succeeded. Neither racked up the assists like other prospects, but they both have two of the better basketball IQs among the group. Their ability to score all over the floor and be a threat will make their passing game that much more lethal. And both do have the passing skills, they just weren't asked to show them that much at their respective schools. Erick Green will have a bigger transition to make as he played off ball more than any other prospect.

Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown all have question marks about their ability to score the ball and will have to show that they can hit jumpers more consistently. Pierre Jackson appeared to be on another level as those guys, but didn't show the balance and shooting ability you'd like to see from a guy marketed as a dynamic scorer.

Shane Larkin looked good according to these numbers, but it will be interesting to see how he does against better athletes who don't have to give him as much space. Once he gets to the NBA, he will need to find a way to shoot from mid-range. If he does, he has the makings of a poor man's Steph Curry.

Examining The PGs Outside of Burke, MCW, and Schroeder

2013-05-12T20:27:00.000-07:00

One of the most intriguing positions this year is the lead guard position. The position is far from top heavy with just Trey Burke a lock for the lottery. It even lacks any other locks for the first round besides Michael Carter-Williams and CJ McCollom if you count him. What it does have is a lot of second round depth and a lot of competition. You can be certain that there will be another PG besides the ones mentioned above going in the first round, but the question is who? There are plenty of names to choose from and all of them have an argument to go within the first 30 picks. The second round could see quite a few point guards taken, which has not been a trend of the past couple of years. This draft lacks the surefire starters, but it could produce as many quality NBA rotational players since at least 2009.

Trey Burke is by far and away the best point guard in this class and is also arguably the safest pick in the entire draft. Depending on who wins the lottery, he could even go #1 overall. At the end of the day, I don't see a likely scenario where he slips out of the top 5.

Burke doesn't have the measurables or athleticism of your typical top 5 point guard. He might not even measure 6-0 and isn't ultra quick or explosive. But what he does have is an advanced knowledge of the game. Burke understands when to attack, when to pass, and how to get his teammates the ball where they need it. He runs the pick and roll like a surgeon and is always in complete control of the offense. He can get his points when needed, but he is also a great passer who makes his teammates better.

His predecessor, Darius Morris, took an entire year before he understood John Beilein's complex system enough to gain his trust. Thats why he was one of the most improved players statistically his sophomore season. Its just very hard to adjust to Beilein's offense as a freshman.

Yet Trey Burke was good enough to start his freshman year and allowed plenty of freedom from John Beilein. Based off that alone, you could tell that this kid was going to be special.

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits. Trey Burke has all of that.

There are other guys in this draft that lack these things, but have gotten by on potential. Myck Kabongo comes to mind immediately. You can even include Lorenzo Brown to an extent as his develop as a point guard isn't what you'd like to see from a junior. Michael Carter-Williams fits as well, although he's viewed on a higher tier as the rest of these guys. If you want to read more on him, check out my latest Stock Attack.

I want to focus more on the rest of the collegiate point guards in this piece and give a good overview on what to expect from each of them. All of these guys have a chance to stick in the NBA.

Nate Wolters

Strengths: Wolters is known for his scoring, but his biggest asset may be the way he attacks a defense. He knows how to read a defense and react. He understands angles and forces defenses to commit to him. He's a good passer who does an excellent job getting his teammates in good spots. He is also a very tough competitor and a gym rat. His jumper got better every year and he is constantly looking for ways to perfect it. There is a stigma around him that he's a just a shooter, but he's a very balanced scoring who looks to attack off the bounce more often than not. He should be very good in the pick and roll as he really has a good feel with the ball in his hands. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Jeremy Lin.

Weaknesses: Wolters is just a average athlete and will need to get stronger to play at the next level. He lacks the explosiveness to be a great finisher around the rim. He also struggles to stay in front of players, although he did a great job funneling Trey Burke into help defense in the NCAA tournament. Wolters has good height to help him overcome some of his shortcomings athletically, but below average length for his size.

Shane Larkin

Strengths: Larkin is very quick and is nearly impossible to contain in the pick and roll. He's a pure shooter with a quick release. He also has good touch inside with a very reliable floater and is able to change speeds. He did a good job mixing up his scoring and his passing this year. He has excellent burst and can beat you in many different ways. He's very comfortable shooting off the dribble in either direction and its very tough to stop him. He does a good job getting his jumpers off, but he doesn't look to settle for just jumpers. Larkin is also a very confident and competitive player who doesn't get rattled.

Weaknesses: Larkin will measure out at under 6-0 at the combine most likely. And while he is very quick and fast, he isn't the most explosive player. He lacks a great build, although he is stronger and tougher than he looks. He also will have to continue to prove his passing abilities and show that he is a true point guard. His in between game also needs work. Defenses in the NBA won't be as afraid of his quickness, so he will have to deal more with tighter defense and NBA length. He didn't see much of that in college because his speed forced teams to go under screens and give him room. He also struggles to get all the way to the rim even though his floater game render that a moot point in college.

Erick Green

Strengths: Erick Green was arguably the best scorer in the country this season and a large part was due to his silky smooth jumper. He's very quick and had no problem creating space to get shots off and elevating over opponents. He has a great mid-range game and is effective in the pick and roll. Green also is lethal in transition where he forces a defender to stop him dead in his tracks if they want to prevent a bucket. Green has a high basketball IQ and is very unselfish, despite his scoring numbers. At Virginia Tech, they needed him to be a scorer so that is what he did, but it doesn't mean he can't run point guard. He just didn't have a good team around him. Finally, Green is a good defender who managed to play hard on that end of the court well. He is obviously very well conditioned.

Weaknesses: Green has spent his time at Virginia Tech being a scorer and hasn't had time gaining experience as a true point guard. He will have to learn the position as he goes in the NBA. Green also has a narrow frame and lacks strength. He could have trouble defending stronger guards. Green also may struggle against physical defense. His lack of success in college in terms of winning will also be something teams will look for answers to.

Phil Pressey

Strengths: Pressey is a pure point guard who gets into the lane at will and finds teammates. He plays with a ton of confidence and with the sense that he is always the best player on the court. He is one of the few pass first point guards in college nowadays and possessing outstanding vision. He's a creative passer and is able to create plays from nothing. He does an excellent job pushing the ball in transition and can stop and pull up on the move. There is plenty of fight with Pressey and he wants to win badly. He always wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

Weaknesses: Pressey will have to overcome his size and his inability to finish at the rim at the next level. He also made some questionable decisions down the stretch of games this season. He tries to do too much a lot of times and turned it over more than any other PG prospect. Although he has great vision, his game management needs a lot of work. Pressey had a bit of a down year after most of his teammates left for the NBA last season. He's a solid shooter, but not great and will have trouble getting his shot off in the pros. Defense will also be hard for him and he didn't always play with good effort on that side of the ball. He lacks the explosiveness or scoring instincts of other small guards who have been successful in the NBA as of late.

Pierre Jackson

Strengths: Jackson is a dynamic player, both in terms of scoring and passing. He was the first player since Jason Terry to lead a BCS conference in scoring and assists. Jackson is very quick and packs a lot of explosiveness in his small frame. He can get to his spots at will on the court, pull up and hit mid-range jumpers, and also knock down deep threes. Jackson also has no problem breaking down defenses and creating for others. He's a competitive, hard working player who doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. He projects as a Nate Robinson type instant offense off the bench, but with better court sense.

Weaknesses: Jackson is another guard who is undersized and may be closer to 5-9 than 6-0. He will struggle defensively and will also need to show a better effort there. Jackson will need to add some bulk to continue to play his style. He also needs to continue to work on his point guard skills by changing speeds and making the simple plays. He turns the ball over a little too much at this point.

Isaiah Canaan

Strengths: Canaan was one of the best scorers in college basketball thanks to his jump shot with unlimited range. He mastered the art of pulling up from deep in transition. He also is able to create his shot with his crossover and step back move from both 3-pt range and inside the arc. Canaan has a strong frame and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He is also very good shooting with his feet set. In terms of putting the ball in the basket, there aren't many guys that do it better than him.

Weaknesses: Canaan is undersized and not a pure point guard. He doesn't get off the ground very quickly. His shot release is also a little slow for a guy who projects as a shooter at the next level. Canaan looks to score more than pass and its not clear whether he has the ability to make plays for others. This year he was able to show improvement in terms of changing speeds. It is also a question of whether he can defend. Canaan struggled to answer many of these questions last summer during skill camps.

Myck Kabongo

Strengths: Kabongo has very good length and quickness for a point guard, enabling him to be a pesky defender and come up with plenty of steals. Kabongo has no problem breaking down defenses and getting into the paint, where he is a solid drive and dish point guard. He has good handles and has budding leadership skills. Kabongo also is a high character guy who has been through a lot in his life. The general skills that Kabongo possess are what many seek in a point guard - high character, defense, pass first, quickness, and the ability to get by defenders.

Weaknesses: Kabongo never put together a good season in college and was suspended for his relationship with a NBA agent. While he seems like a good kid, many believe he is being misled by those around him. Kabongo also has poor mechanics on his shot and lacks a great feel for the point guard position. He only plays at one speed and dominates the ball. He's also turnover prone and needs to get stronger. His ability to run a team will need major work and he'll likely have to spend a year in the D-League at least.

Ray McCallum

Strengths: McCallum turned it over less than any other point guard with the potential to get drafted, despite being a huge part of his teams offense. He is the coach's son and plays like one. He plays under control and at a steady pace. He is able to get all the way to the rim, but also has a developing mid-range game. McCallum is a very good passer as well, although this season he took on the scoring role. Part of the reason his turnovers were so low was because he took a lot of quick jumpers and didn't attempt to force any drives or passes. McCallum is deceptively quick and does a good job running the pick and roll. He is also a solid athlete.

Weaknesses: McCallum improved his jumper this year, but still shot a fairly low percentage from the 3-pt line. His jumper looked good, however, and he had to take a lot of tough contested shots. There is also a question of whether McCallum is dynamic enough as a player. He doesn't do anything at an elite or even very good level. McCallum also has short arms and can have trouble finishing at the next level. He didn't play against the best competition, but should look better when he is surrounded by better teammates and able to play as a more tradition PG.

Lorenzo Brown

Strengths: Brown possesses very good height and vision for a point guard. He is able to break down defenses and is crafty with his passing and ball handling. He has made the transition from a high school combo guard to a success college point guard while racking up plenty of assists. Brown also does a very good job when he is able to push the ball in transition and has good foot work en route to the rim. He is able to finish in a variety of ways. He's a fluid athlete who uses his long strides to his advantage. He can create his own shots pretty easily thanks to his size, ball handling, and creativity.

Weaknesses: Brown is still learning the nuances of being a point guard and was the leader of a very inconsistent and underperforming North Carolina State team. He is also a poor shooter who saw his shooting numbers drop to record lows this season. Brown also can be too crafty for his own good - often making shots at the rim tougher than they should be and trying to get into seams where he can't fit through. He doesn't do a good job drawing fouls despite his slashing ability, which is a result of him trying to avoid contact. He lacks the strength to finish with contact. He is also old for his class and will be 23 by the time the 2013-14 NBA season kicks off.

Honorable Mention:

Matthew Dellavedova

Dellavedova is an outstanding shooter and combines that with great size and strength. He has proven he can run a team both in college and at the Olympic level. His experience shows on the court and he passes over the defense very well. Dellevadova knows how to use the pick and roll to his advantage, although he rarely gets to the rim. He's an underrated prospect who gets dismissed because he isn't a very good athlete.

Conclusion:

I believe that Pierre Jackson is the most NBA ready point guard of this group to fill a role. He fits perfectly into the Nate Robinson/Isaiah Thomas role. However, I don't see him ever being a consistent starter which is why I'd consider taking a few other guys over him.

Right now Nate Wolters, Erick Green, Ray McCallum, and Shane Larkin each have a better chance than Jackson of developing into a starter. Each of them also have question marks that could have them glued to the bench or out of the league in a few years. But this is a very solid group and I believe at least one will turn into a NBA starting point guard. Green is the best shooter of the bunch and also looks to be the best defender. He is also able to score at all three levels, has high character, and NBA level quickness/explosiveness which is why I currently have him ranked higher than anyone else on this list.

But McCallum and Wolters are both intriguing guys who could end up being better once they are surrounded by better teammates. They both have very good point guard skills, but were asked to be more of scorers for their teams. While they aren't typical "upside" guys, they could surprise people who aren't familiar with them.

Larkin doesn't have the size of the other three nor does he have the experience. His transition to the NBA looks to be a little rougher which is why I think he shouldn't get selected until Round 2. His upside is also kind of a mystery. The other guys have more defined roles as true point guards and are more ready to contribute which is why I believe they should get some consideration as possible late first round picks.

Finally, we have Isaiah Canaan, Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown. For Kabongo, I see too big of a question mark to invest a first round pick on. He won't be ready to contribute for a few years and will need to grind in the D-League to ever be successful. An unguaranteed contract has his name written all over it.

Canaan doesn't have the point guard skills to ever start in the NBA and if you want a scorer off the bench, Pierre Jackson is a better bet. Canaan to me seems like a guy who will likely be out of the league in a few years.

Pressey and Brown quite frankly, haven't impressed me. Pressey is a pass first point guard who makes questionable decisions. He can't shoot, defend, or finish inside. Brown failed to lead his college team and is old by NBA draft standards. He has a lot of holes in his game for a 22 year old and the likelihood of him fixing those holes aren't great, especially considering he took a step back this season.

Stock Attack: Michael Carter-Williams

2013-05-11T17:49:00.001-07:00

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits.

Trey Burke has all of that. When it comes to Michael Carter-Williams, I'm hesitant to say he possesses any of those qualities. He disappeared from plenty of games. His passing consisted of a lot of drive and kicks and transition feeds. Yes, MCW did post great assists numbers. But how the assists were obtained are more important. When I look at MCW, I ask if he can consistently make plays out of the pick and roll and find teammates. Or if he can control the pace, set the offense, and make the simple plays. Where is his mid-range game? Carter-Williams makes a lot of spectacular plays and is a helluva talent, but he hasn't shown he can be a model of consistency. That is troubling from a point guard prospect.

There were a lot of games where Carter-Williams was quiet for an entire half and dominated the other. For some guys, thats just a matter of them knowing when to take over. For Carter-Williams, it was more of him being taken out of the game by the defense.

We are talking about a guy whose skills aren't up to par. He shoots a very flat shot with inconsistent mechanics. Some say he was a better shooter in HS, but that doesn't mean anything to me after he's had more than a full season at the college level. I saw that he did shoot well in Nike's EYBL events in AAU, but I don't take much stock into that. Those rims are very kind to make the players look better and benefit guys who don't shoot with much arc.

If you can't make shots consistently, the rest of your game better be refined. Carter-Williams is not. His ball handling skills are weak and magnified by his lack of strength. When he drives and the defense doesn't collapse on him to give him a passing option, he struggles to finish. He does have a nice floater, but can't get it off consistently. He lacks an explosive first step. Instead, Carter-Williams has to rely on his above average quickness for his size and a solid crossover. It works, but its much more of a shooting guard move than a point guard.

A point guard shouldn't need to overdribble to get his shot off. A point guard should understand how to change speeds and work the pick and roll game effectively. Burke was never taken out of games because he could always makes plays if he got a ball screen. Carter-Williams has a tougher task to operate in the pick and roll due to his height and he doesn't do himself any favors either. He doesn't change speeds well or mix up his strides. He's very shaky with the ball when two defenders are around him and his passing instincts look much more raw when it comes to more advanced plays.

Again, the drive and kick play is the most simple way for a point guard to get assists. Its the most basic play that any point guard should be able to execute. Carter-Williams can do it with the best of them in college, but that doesn't make him a point guard. That is just the initial layer to being a point guard and when you look for more layers to his game, they aren't present.

Carter-Williams also struggled mightily against ball pressure as you saw if you watched the Big East Championship game against Louisville. For the first half, MCW and Cuse played well enough to have the lead. In the second half, Louisville turned up their defensive pressure and completely blew out Syracuse. The difference in halves was remarkable and the biggest blame goes to the point guard.

Then there was the Final 4 game against Michigan. Carter-Williams fouled out and went to the bench crying as if the game was over. Except it wasn't and Syracuse almost won the game. But there he was sitting on the bench with his head buried in a towel instead of cheering on his team. A leader doesn't act as if the game is over because he fouled out. Throughout the year, Syracuse was one of the most up and down teams in the country and there wasn't much leadership coming from their point guard. For a guy who should be the rock of the team, Carter-Williams was one of the most inconsistent players - both with his play on the court and in his emotions. You shouldn't ever get too high or too low as a basketball player - especially as a point guard. Its yet another thing Michael Carter-Williams has to overcome.

He gets some comparisons to Shaun Livingston but Livingston was a great athlete coming out of high school while Carter-Williams is just "good" athletically. Also, Carter-Williams wasn't even considered a point guard coming out of HS and there was a reason for that. Shaun Livingston had such pure point guard skills he was compared to Magic Johnson.

Defensively, Michael Carter-Williams has all the tools and good instincts to go with it. He had plenty of steals operating at the top of the zone and while his length and the system certainly helped, his ability to play the passing lanes should somewhat translate to the NBA. The biggest worry about his defense though is that he doesn't have experience at a high level playing man to man defense. And in recent times, Syracuse players have really struggled to make the adjustment. Even guys like Wes Johnson who people believed had all the athletic tools to make up for player in a zone. Right now, its just a very risky proposition to take a Syracuse player for his defensive ability. Carter-Williams could turn out to be very good defensively, but I wouldn't view it as a sure thing.

Potential is a word that is often associated with Michael Carter-Williams when you point out all these flaws. Sure, he has the height that most other point guards don't have. You can't teach size. But its also very hard to learn and improve all his other weaknesses when there are so many. There is potential and then there is the chances a player reaches his potential. I understand that you can't count out a guy improving his skills, but you can say a guy won't grow, but I'll take players with the necessary skills and ability over a guy with height anyday. Those attributes are very hard to improve as well. And at the age of 21, Michael Carter-Williams is far from the youngest player in the draft.

Jimmy Butler Getting It Done for the Bulls

2013-05-10T19:20:00.002-07:00

When I first started doing this, Jimmy Butler was one of my favorite players. He was criminally overlooked throughout his entire college career and it took a Portsmouth MVP winning performance to get him in the first round. But even then, Butler was slept on and seen as a reach.

Now the Jimmy Butler bandwagon is at full capacity and I just want to make sure I still have my front row seats. Its great to see a player like Butler who wasnt known at all in his high school days succeed at the NBA level. Especially if you are familiar with his back story.

Here are some of my tweets I dug up dating back to when I first started tweeting, back in 2009 - Butler's junior season.

Statistically speaking, Jimmy Butler is very underrated. I bet Hollinger's system will have him as a 1st rounder if he keep his stats up
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) December 30, 2009

Jimmy Butler looked good vs Nova. starting to really like him as a sleeper for next yr. has the makings of a nice role player
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) January 3, 2010

@draftexpress is Jimmy Butler getting on your radar at all? NBA SF body with nice stats playing out of position. understands role, unselfish
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) February 21, 2010

Butler = clutch! RT @ballinisahabit Jimmy Butler just hit a buzzer beater.
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) February 25, 2010

Jimmy Butler with a nice entry pass into the post for an easy dunk. #itsthelittlethings
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) November 13, 2010

Nolan Smith and Jimmy Butler are two guys I would show to kids looking to learn how to play the game.
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) November 23, 2010

Been saying tht for a yr RT @ballinisahabit This is why I've been saying jimmy Butler is one of the most underrated players in the country.
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) November 23, 2010

Jimmy Butler is always in the right place.
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) November 13, 2010

Stock Attack: Mason Plumlee

2013-05-10T15:17:00.000-07:00

Every year there are a couple of players that jump out at me as extremely overrated and Mason Plumlee headlines that list in 2013. He's been projected in the lottery, even top 10, all season long and still sits in the lottery discussion today. His stock looks more unstable now with Gorgui Dieng getting a lot of recognition and Steven Adams deciding to enter the draft, but there is still a strong belief that Plumlee will be a solid third big man.

Personally, I've never seen it with him. I've said all season long that Gorgui Dieng is the better prospect and still stand by it. Dieng makes fewer mental mistake, can consistently hit jumpers, and is a bigger presence at the rim.

Scouts like Mason Plumlee because he has improved every year. Thats one way at looking at it. But I see a guy who vastly underachieved his first few seasons given his situation and athleticism. Name me a Duke player who hasn't made big strides under Coach K. Look at how Nolan Smith is looking in the NBA.

This year Mason Plumlee did look much better, in part because he was more aggressive. He wasn't afraid of going to the foul line anymore since his shooting at the line improved.

History says that seniors that improve a lot their final year aren't to be trusted and the eye test gives similar concerns. If it takes you four years to put it together at a school like Duke when you have great athleticism, that sends up some major red flags. Coach K consistently gets the most out of his players, gets them drafted higher than they should be, and then we hear all about how Duke can't produce NBA players. Yet time and time again everyone falls into the trap of Coach K's magic.

Of course, evaluating prospects is a still a case by case basis. While Plumlee has his age and school as red flags, that is no way to determine if a guy is overrated. But when you watch Plumlee play, the amount of mental mistakes he makes throws up yet another red flag.

Then you get to talking about his position. Is he a power forward or a center? His mechanical style, lack of lateral quickness, smarts, or shooting ability suggest that he can't play power forward well. But as a center, his narrow hips and 6'10 wingspan are both major deterrents. You can improve your upperbody strength all you want, but genetically small hips are a different story.

But what about his offensive game, you say? He did put up over 17ppg in the ACC. But what translates? He isn't hitting jumpers at a consistent rate. He constantly got pushed out of good post position on the block due to lack of strength. Plumlee did show off an improved post game this year and as I said, his aggressiveness didn't hurt either. But his post game is still very mechanical. There is no rhyme or reason to his moves. He makes a lot of awful plays the end of successful because of his athleticism and new found confidence. Take away some of that confidence he gained from this season and you are back to a passive player without much else. And its a fact that his confidence will take a hit once he reaches the NBA - it happens to most players.

Plumlee's post moves consist of a nice right handed hook shot and then a lot of freestyle. A lot of stuff he won't get away with at the next level. He can't freestyle his way to the rim in the pros from post position 15 feet out. The help defense is too good.

It is really hard to pinpoint what Plumlee's strengths will be at the next level. Is it his defense or offense? Is he just a good all-around player or a player who isnt good at anything?

I've been leaning towards the latter side so much that I've fallen over. And based of Mason Plumlee's lack of balance, he better be careful he doesn't bust and fall on his face as well.