NBA Prospects

Scouting Report: James Ennis

2013-05-19T20:37:00.000-07:00

In his second and final year of playing Division One college basketball, James Ennis showed a lot of improvement and has placed himself in a fairly favorable spot to get drafted. Ennis has always possessed outstanding athleticism and starred in the high jump in junior college in addition to playing ball. After transferring to Long Beach State from Ventura College in his junior year, Ennis seemed to gain even more confidence this season and became a more aggressive player.

Ennis's game is based around his outstanding athleticism and he does a great job of using it in game situations. He really gets after it on the defensive end and averaged 2 steals and 1.5 blocks per 40 minutes this season (pace adjusted). Ennis plays with a lot of energy and is one of those guys who can come out of nowhere to block shots. He chases guys down in transition for blocks and is aggressive when it comes to playing help defense. He is very intimidating when he closes in on you and he was very aggressive when it came to double teaming opponents. He forced a lot of bad passes just by bringing defensive pressure and also came up with a lot of steals. He plays the passing lanes very well, has cat-like reflexes, and very good length for wing defender.

Ennis is a lanky, wiry strong guy and pulled down 7.5 boards per 40 minutes (pace adjusted) which was up from 5.6 his first season with the team. He has good hands and was able to go over defenders backs and tip the ball to himself. His aggression and effort on defense carries over to the boards.

His team was also undersized and needed him to provide a paint presence. They looked to get up and down the court as fast as any team in the nation. Ennis was able to start breaks right out of rebounds, but showed shaky ball handling skills.

At this point, he can create plays off the dribble but only because of his elite athleticism. His athleticism at the mid-major level allowed him to mask his shortcomings as a ball handler, as he is most definitely poor in that area. He didn't let that stop him from attacking the basket though, although he was often forcing up circus shots. He was unable to drive into the lane in a controlled matter and most of the shots he put up ended up being really awkward. The only way he got them off was because of his elevation.

Because of his lack of ball handling or control, Ennis has no mid-range game of which to speak of. His team as a whole performed poorly in the halfcourt and they lacked structure. Ennis' shots off the dribble were pretty much freestyled attempts without much rhyme or reason. One thing he did do well was going inside without the ball and capitalizing on offensive rebound opportunities. He is able to control the ball well on tip-in plays.

Ennis also scored baskets by cutting towards the rim once a teammate had the ball in the post. There wasn't much structure in these plays or cuts, but they were effective. In the pros, Ennis may benefit from a system that will focus more on getting him open off of these plays. He's a great finisher at the rim due to his athleticism, strength, and also his creativity. His creativity hurts him on perimeter drives because he is completely out of control once he reaches the rim, but it works to his advantage off cuts without the ball.

As a shooter, Ennis is able to hit a good percentage of his long range shots when he has the time to get them off. He shot a respectable 35% from behind the arc each of his two season at Long Beach State. The bigger problem for Ennis shooting the ball is his release. He isn't a guy you have to worry much about from behind the arc because it takes him too long to get off the shot. In the NBA, defenders close out quickly and he will need to really work on speeding up his shot.

Although it doesn't project to be a big part of his game at the next level, Ennis did show some potential creating his own jumper off of one or two dribbles. His ball handling is too shaky for anything more, but he has a really quick stepback crossover move. With more repetition he could develop more confidence to use it more often. But he has to use it smart - a lot of his stepback moves resulted in long 2-pt attempts just inside the 3-pt arc.

Ennis is also a good teammate who looks to get others involved. He can make some impressive passes, but turns the ball over too often because he makes things too difficult. He had a negative assist to turnover ratio this year, which again speaks to how poor of a ball handler he is.

Overall, Ennis will have to make a name for himself on the defensive end but he has all the tools to do just that. He showed on a consistent basis that he can be an impact defender in college and with his athleticism, he will still be one of the better athletes in the NBA. He will need to improve his focus and really key in on his man to man defense instead of being a guy who is all over the court. Teams will certainly likely his defense as well as his rebounding ability.

In the end though, he will need to be able to prove he can space the court as well as play smarter. He hasn't played in a structured offense up to this point so there will be a learning curve. He will also have to adjust to playing without the ball in his hands and against better competition. He did benefit from playing the likes of North Carolina, Ohio State, UCLA, Syracuse, USC, and Baylor in one of the nation's toughest non-conference schedules this year.

In terms of his ranking among other small forwards, I see him behind other second rounders like Solomon Hill and Adonis Thomas due to his lack of potential and polish. But compared to Carrick Felix - a guy who is projected to be the same kind of defensive player - I like Ennis better because he's an even better athlete. Ennis hasn't locked up a draft spot in the second round, but he has improved his stock since college ended with strong showings at both Portsmouth and the combine in Chicago. He could end up being a guy like James White who had to spend years in the D-League before getting a legit shot in the NBA.

2013 Small Forwards Prospects By the Numbers

2013-05-19T17:41:00.000-07:00

A week ago, we took a loot at the point guard prospects by the numbers. Now we will see how the small forward prospects grade out based off the numbers provided by hoop-data.com. I excluded Otto Porter from this study as I view him as the best small forward prospect by a considerable margin.

*For Glen Rice Jr, I used his data from his previous year at Georgia Tech.

% of Shots at the Rim

Carrick Felix - 43%

James Ennis - 35%

Solomon Hill - 27%

Robert Covington - 25%

Shabazz Muhammad - 24%

Glen Rice Jr - 21%

Deshaun Thomas - 20%

Adonis Thomas - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Glen Rice Jr - 76%

Deshaun Thomas - 74%

James Ennis - 72%

Carrick Felix - 71%

Shabazz Muhammad - 65%

Robert Covington - 64%

Solomon Hill - 63%

Adonis Thomas - 62%

% Assisted at the Rim

Adonis Thomas - 58%

Shabazz Muhammad - 58%

Carrick Felix - 56%

Deshaun Thomas - 48%

Robert Covington - 44%

James Ennis - 41%

Glen Rice Jr - 34%

Solomon Hill - 14%

% Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Adonis Thomas - 59%

Shabazz Muhammad - 53%

Deshaun Thomas - 45%

Robert Covington - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 37%

Solomon Hill - 31%

James Ennis - 24%

Carrick Felix - 19%

FG% 2pt Jumpers

Solomon Hill - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 40%

Adonis Thomas - 39%

Deshaun Thomas - 39%

Shabazz Muhammad - 37%

Carrick Felix - 34%

James Ennis - 31%

Robert Covington - 25%

% 2-pt Jumpers Assisted

Adonis Thomas - 54%
Shabazz Muhammad - 47%
Deshaun Thomas - 43%
Robert Covington - 41%
Carrick Felix - 32%
Solomon Hill - 23%
Glen Rice Jr - 17%

James Ennis - 14%

% of 3-pt Shots

Solomon Hill - 42%
Glen Rice Jr - 42%
James Ennis - 41%
Robert Covington - 38%
Carrick Felix - 37%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Adonis Thomas - 24%
Shabazz Muhammad - 23%

3-pt FG%

Solomon Hill - 39%
Carrick Felix - 38%
Robert Covington - 38%
Shabazz Muhammad - 38%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Glen Rice Jr - 34%
James Ennis - 33%
Adonis Thomas - 29%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted

Shabazz Muhammad - 100%
Carrick Felix - 96%
Deshaun Thomas - 96%
Adonis Thomas - 92%
Robert Covington - 87%
Solomon Hill - 82%
James Ennis - 68%
Glen Rice Jr - 68%

Observations

James Ennis - James Ennis stands out in this group as a finisher which comes to no surprise. He's the best athlete among the 8 prospects and his team pushed the ball with every chance they could get. You can tell that his team lacked any kind of halfcourt structure on offense which forced Ennis to create more than he should have to. Even though Ennis isn't a good ball handler, he was forced to create a large amount of his jumpshots. He does have a quick step back jumper move, but that isnt his game. Playing in a halfcourt setting in the NBA will be a big adjustment for him. He doesn't have a mid-range game and relies on circus shots in the lane. He will have to improve his jumper. He hit 3s at a good rate but his release has to get quicker.

Carrick Felix - Felix is the most similar to Ennis and both of their strengths are more on the defensive end. Felix played in a much more structured offense however, which complimented his strengths well. He didn't have to create at all and while he also lacks a middle game, he wasn't put in a situation where he had to score off the dribble. Like Ennis, he is a real solid finisher at the rim. He has also turned himself into a good spot up 3-pt shooter. I view Ennis as a better prospect than Felix because of his athletic edge and added playmaking ability.

Solomon Hill - Hill is one of the worst finishers at the rim in the group, but makes up for it with his polished mid-range game. He has the best floor game of the group and has the most versatile offensive attack. He doesn't have to get all the way to the rim to score. He also tested out as the best shooter in the group by leading in both 2-pt% and 3-pt% while taking a higher volume of 3s than anyone. He's a good spot up shooter but also can get his shot off the dribble.

Glen Rice Jr - The more you look at Glen Rice Jr, the more you see how much the situation at Georgia Tech prevented him from showing his true potential. Rice Jr had to create almost all his shots at Georgia Tech as he was near the bottom in assisted shots in all 3 categories. He was also the best finisher at the rim and in the mid-range area, despite not having the advantage of getting any easy baskets. The one area Rice Jr doesn't show well here is 3-pt shooting, but he might actually be the best shooter out of the 8. He proved this year in the D-League that he has no problem with the NBA 3-pt line.

Shabazz Muhammad - There is a big concern with Shabazz's ability to get to the rim based off these numbers. He was in the bottom half in terms of % of shots at the rim while receiving more assisted plays at the rim than anyone. Considering Shabazz also scored a lot of offensive rebounds, the numbers prove the Muhammad was unable to put the ball on the floor and get all the way to the rim at UCLA. He also seemed incapable of creating room for his jump shots. All of his 3-pt makes were assisted and he trailed only Adonis Thomas in most 2-pt jumpers assisted. His mid-range game, however, does show promise.

Deshaun Thomas - Thomas didn't really standout in any one category. We know he can shoot the ball, but he didn't shoot it at an exceptional clip. And there is a big concern with his ability to get shots off at the next level. A lot of his shots were assisted and he doesn't really have any reliable moves to get his shot up. As a small forward at the next level, he will struggle to shoot over longer defenders due to his lack of quickness and height. He did convert well at the rim in limited attempts, but that isnt his game.

Adonis Thomas - Thomas' numbers at the rim couldn't be any more. Despite shooting less at the rim than anyone and having the highest percentage of his shots assisted, Thomas still was last in converting at the rim. Thats a red flag and very puzzling for someone with his size and athleticism. These numbers scream lack of aggression. He did fair well in the mid-range area, which passes the eye test when watching him as well. Thomas will also need to improve his range as he shot worse from 3 this year than anyone.

Robert Covington - For a guy his size and playing against the competition he did, Covington really didn't show as well at the rim as you'd like to see. More concerning was his FG% on 2-pt jumpers since he projects to be a jump shooter at the next level. He ranked last in that area by a fair margin. Tennessee State needed a guy who could create shots this season and he proved that he struggled in that area. Still, Covington brings a nice combination of athleticism and outside shooting that could eventually get him into the NBA.

After watching more film on each of these prospects and taking a look at them by the numbers, here are my personal revised rankings:

1. Glen Rice Jr (late lottery to mid-first round)
2. Shabazz Muhammad (mid-first round)
3. Solomon Hill (early second round)
4. Adonis Thomas (early second round)
5. James Ennis (second round)
6. Deshaun Thomas (second round)
7. Carrick Felix (second round to undrafted)
8. Robert Covington (second round to undrafted)

Others worth noting: James Southerland, Rodney Williams, Will Clyburn

Takeaways from the NBA Combine

2013-05-17T18:06:00.000-07:00

The NBA Combine generates a ton of buzz every year in Chicago and the results of the combine are often overanalysed and discussed ad nauseum. NBA teams can get up in the numbers too, but the good teams understand that each number should be taken with a grain of salt. Some numbers are more relevant than others and some players' numbers are also more important.

The combine does present an opportunity to see all the draft prospects in a gym together and see who passes the eye test. Generally, its good to at least note the outliers in both directions. Rudy Gobert had measured with a 7-9 wingspan in Eurocamp previously, but seeing him against other NBA prospects in the flesh makes more of an impact. Gobert generated the most hype out of anyone these past 3 days in Chicago.

Other things to note is who consistently goes hard in drills, who looks out of shape, and shooting mechanics. Getting caught up in the number of shots a guy makes isn't a good idea, but seeing how quick and consistent a prospects stroke is worth watching. For the most part - you know that bad and the good shooters. But having them all in one gym, you can get a better idea on who has the quickest releases. If you are among the best shooters AND have a quick release, that is something noteworthy.

The athletic testing is where you have to be most careful. There are players who train specifically to do well on these tests during the few weeks prior to the event. When you look at data from previous years, there really is no pattern in terms of who succeeds and who fails. Plenty of guys have flopped in athletic testing and went on to have great NBA careers, while there have also been countless workout warriors. If you take a look at the trainers players are training with, you do notice that certain trainers produce better results than others.

For example, Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo both killed the athletic testing and have been working with the same trainer who constantly produces results. Kenny Kadji, Shane Larkin, and Adonis Thomas all worked out with the same trainer as well and performed better than many thought they would.

This doesn't mean that their leaping ability is better than they showed in college, it just shows that they have practiced these drills. Its important to understand the different approaches prospects have coming into the combine and how it affects their testing. Nothing beats watching game film to measure a guy's athleticism.

Another thing to note is the difference between standing vertical and the maximum vertical. For a big man, more times than not, they will be jumping from a standstill position off of two feet in games. Thats why it was impressive to see Cody Zeller measure with the top standing vertical in the entire draft.

At the same time, the most important thing for big men is getting off the floor quickly - the combine doesn't measure that. While Zeller can just high (which is needed to make up for his short standing reach), he doesn't get off the ground super quick.

Rudy Gobert only produced a standing vertical of 25 inches, but with a record high standing reach, there is no reason for him to have to be able to jump 12 feet in the air. The game in the NBA is played above the rim, but not that high. As long as Gobert gets off the ground fairly quickly - and he does - his vertical is not a big deal at all. He won't need to jump higher than 25 inches to ever block a shot in the NBA.

Meanwhile, guards need to do better in the maximum vertical leap. There are two foot jumping perimeter players and then there are the guys that can fly to the rim on the run by jumping off of one foot. Victor Oladipo does that as well as anyone. Ben McLemore is another guy who excels throwing down dunks on the run.

You also have guys that test well athletically, but don't ever show that kind of athleticism in games. Their numbers are more irrelevant. Kenny Kadji comes to mind.

A guy like CJ Leslie killed the lane agility and ran the court as fast as anyone, but he doesn't know what to do with that speed in the games. Its great to run the court fast, but it is even better to run the court every possession. Leslie is a guy who takes a lot of plays off and doesn't always go at full speed - which is why you shrug off his sprint times.

Leslie's agility times should also be taken with a grain of salt. His feet more faster than his brain. While he has quick feet, all that does a lot of times is take him out of position quicker. Instincts and IQ and more important when playing defense inside - not agility. All this says about Leslie is he can run around on defense like a chicken with its head cut off - without any idea where he is suppose to be.

Shane Larkin posted a billboard day during the athletic testing and that is something that will help him out. During the measurements, he measured with a wingspan less than 6 feet. In the history of the draft, very few guys with that kind of length have ever gone in the first round. To counter that measurement, Larkin went out and dominated the drills today. So when his size is questioned, scouts can turn to his "freakish athleticism" to justify why Larkin will be different from the gang of T-Rex armed guards that have failed before him.

Anyway, the top 5 seems to be as wide open as ever after today. Noel only weighed in at 206 pounds, which is obviously extremely light for a big man. Noel said his injury has caused him to drop weight, but even at 220 pounds he still needs to add a considerable amount of weight.

Porter, Burke, and McLemore remain my next three best prospects. They all did fairly well in Chicago. At this point, I tcould make an argument for any of the four to be the first overall pick. My board is extremely fluid at the top 4 spots and Noel is no sure bet to go #1. He's the biggest risk for sure and its hard to turn down sure things like Burke and Porter.

After them, Rudy Gobert has begun to creep up in the picture. As mainly a college basketball guy, I hadn't watched Gobert near enough this year but as I watch more of him, the more I become convinced he could make a push towards the top 5. One of his biggest concerns is his weight, but he weighed more than guys like Dieng, Olynyk, Mbakwe, Withey, Zeller, and Muscala. Thats almost as big for him as his massive length. Oh yea, and Gobert is nowhere near as raw as Ajinca was. Thats not a fair comparison.

Scouting Report: Solomon Hill

2013-05-16T21:53:00.001-07:00

Solomon Hill is a known commodity in the college basketball community at this point and has developed a reputation as a hardworker throughout his career. Even back in high school, Hill started off as an undersized mid-major forward who was working on becoming more perimeter oriented. He eventually became a top 100 recruit and landed at Arizona, where his versatility made him into one of the best players in the Pac-12.

Solomon Hill started off as the "other forward" on Arizona, playing alongside fellow class of 2009 prospect, Derrick Williams. Williams, of course, left after his sophomore year and ended up being taken as the number two overall pick in the draft.

At the time, they were fairly interchangeable on both sides of the ball between both forward spots. Williams took over the team, became a star, and overshadowed Solomon Hill in the process. Since then, Williams hasn't necessarily lived up to expectations in the NBA and has proven to be more of a fit at power forward than on the perimeter.

Hill has benefitted from staying in college and noticeably improving every year. Like Williams, Solomon Hill has great intangibles and a strong work ethic. He has transformed himself into a guy who played within 15 feet of the basket his first couple of years, to becoming strictly a perimeter player this season. He has improved both his volume and percentages each year from behind the arc as well as his assisting and A/TO ratio.

At this point in his development, Hill is definitely closer to a legit small forward prospect than a tweener. His ball handling has become a strength, he shoots the ball with his feet set very well, and he has always had good passing skills and feel for the game.

As an athlete, I have some reservations about Hill's ability to play the same game in the NBA that he currently plays in college. He doesn't possess good quickness and isn't explosive off the bounce. In college, he makes up for that with a vast array of moves. He utilizes hesitations, ball fakes, and can use a spin move in the lane while maintaining perfect balance. Hill also uses a jumpstop a lot, something you don't see a lot of players using nowadays. Hill is solid at changing directions on drives as well, but his moves aren't quick.

With these moves, Hill is able to manuever himself anywhere on the court while being under complete control. Thanks to his strength, he doesn't have to be quick to the rim. He can also put his head down and bully his way into the lane at times. He doesn't get great separation all the time, but has more than enough strength to muscle up shots in the lane. He also has an arsenal of post moves from his early career and hits the turnaround jumper with consistency. Everything Hill does with the ball is very smooth and under control, albeit a little mechanical.

In the NBA, it will get tougher to rely on those moves. Not only will it be harder for him to get by defenders and use strength, but it will be harder for him to finish in the paint. Hill doesn't have great height for a small forward and he will need to do a much better job at drawing contact. Hill only got to the line 3.5 times per game, despite driving into the lane a lot. A lot of it has to do with his ability to avoid avoid contact with pump fakes, but it also shows that he's not explosive going straight to the cup.

The good thing with Hill is, he's not a guy who needs the ball in his hands to be successful. He's also effective as a spot up shooter and moving without the basketball. He can cut to the rim and finish in traffic. He's also a fairly explosive jumper off of two feet, although he isn't elite. His explosiveness at the rim is better than his first step, lateral quickness, or ability to change directions. He's more creative and skilled than guys with similar profiles like Sam Young, Alonzo Gee, David Noel, Denham Brown, and Joey Graham.

Speaking of lateral quickness, that is another one of my concerns with him translating to the next level. Hill has been able to hang his hat on his solid defense in college, but how much of it will translate? His wingspan is only average for a small forward at 6-9.75 and he doesn't have the speed side to side to compensate for it. Hill reminds me of Sam Young from a physical and athletic perspective, but Young has almost a 2 inch longer wingspan. I don't doubt that Hill will be a good defender, but will he be a good enough defender to overcome his average scoring output?

Overall, Hill does possess a lot of the qualities of a solid role player. With the success teams have found in drafting experienced SFs in the second round, you can be sure the Hill will hear his name called on draft night. Guys like Chandler Parsons and Jimmy Butler have shined in past weeks and should help his stock. However, Im just not convinced he is the same type of player either of those two are. He isnt as fluid or tall as Parsons (both are great passers, but Parsons passing ability has translated to the NBA because he can still see over defenses, Hill will have a tougher adjustment) or as great of a defender as Jimmy Butler. Hill needs something to hang his hat on at the next level and you can be sure he will continue to improve his game. He is a guy you can't count out and he deserves to have his name called on draft night.

Scouting Report: Carrick Felix

2013-05-16T15:59:00.001-07:00

Carrick Felix has taken an interesting path to get to this point in his career. He was an under the radar prospect in high school, ended up playing JUCO ball alongside Pierre Jackson, and was once committed to play at Duke following that. Felix ultimately ended up at Arizona State (where he has played the last 3 years) and didn't emerge onto the draft radar until this season at the age of 22 (he will be 23 when the 2013-14 NBA season begins).

Anytime a player struggled to make a big impact until his senior season, there will be red flags to answer. For Felix, he has certainly matured over the years. The birth of his daughter this past July forced him to mature and gave him a new focus on the game of basketball. During this past year, Felix also earned his master's degree in Liberal Studies.

But it just wasn't a new found focus on the game that helped him. Arizona State and coach Herb Sendek opened up their offense into a more pro-oriented system this year when he added a couple of former NBA coaches to his staff. Part of the reason for the change of system was to take advantage of freshman point guard Jahii Carson's skillset, who also played a big part in the emergence of Carrick Felix.

Playing in a more open offense, the game looked like it came easy to Felix. You could tell that Felix had played next to a dynamic point guard before (Pierre Jackson) and his ability to work off of Carson was excellent.

Felix isn't much of a playmaker himself, instead he's a guy who you usually will only see taking a maximum of two dribbles. He doesn't have much of a mid-range game either. But what he does is fill his role very well and takes smart shots.

Most of his points come from cuts to the rim, beating guys in transition, offensive rebounds, and cuts spot up 3-pters. As NBA statsheads will tell you, scoring from those spots on the court is an efficient way to make a living. He doesn't over-complicate anything, Felix just makes the plays that are given to him.

His best asset is his motor and you can see him consistently beating the other nine guys down the court on both ends. He became a guy who could get chase down blocks in transition. He was also very versatile and whenever he was covering a power forward, he made it very hard for them to keep up with him running the floor.

In the halfcourt, Felix was able to get to the rims with straight line drives to either direction. He has a good first step and is an explosive finisher in the lane. When he can, he will finish with an emphatic dunk over the defense. The best thing about his drives are that he knows his limitations. He knows he doesn't have an in-between game or the ability to change directions and weave through opponents. Because of that, he makes very few mistakes. He takes to dribbles to the rim and if the lane is open, he will finish. If not, Felix is perfectly content on kicking the ball back out and does a solid job passing.

He will never be the most creative player or much of a scorer, but he will have a very easy transition to the NBA. What he did at Arizona State is the same thing he will do in the NBA. He won't need to tone down his game at all and teams will never have to question his energy level. They also don't have to worry about his maturity or work ethic.

In terms of shooting the ball, he has made significant strides every single year but still needs to get better. He shot 37.4% from three, up from his two previous rates of 30% and 20%. The adjustment to the NBA 3-pt line will be a concern as he is finally just getting himself accommodated to the college line. A guy like him will need to consistently make shots to be able to play in the NBA and he will likely need to spend time in the D-League until he gets used to the NBA line. He does do a nice job sliding to the short corner behind the arc and hitting those 3s. Felix certainly understands where the most efficient shots are on the court.

His free throwing shooting also isn't a good sign for his overall touch. As I said before, Felix hardly ever shoots a mid-range jumper or any floaters. And his free throw shooting percentage of 65% makes you believe he doesn't even shoot inside the arc during practices. His shooting didn't get better as the season went on either. He shot just 61% from the line in conference play.

Defensively, Felix can be a valuable asset. He is a bouncy athlete with a very high motor. In college, he was able to cover just about any position on the court. He came up with steals and blocks, displayed good hands, and attacked the glass hard for rebounds. Felix has worked on his body over the years too and has added a good amount of bulk. He doesn't have a great build to be a power wing, but he certainly has the mindset. With a nonstop motor, long arms, and a good defensive IQ Felix projects to be an above average defender at the next level.

Overall, Carrick Felix looks to be your prototypical mid to late second round pick. He needed the right system in college to flourish and it will be even more important that he finds a good situation in the NBA. Even with the right situation though, he will need to improve his shooting to even see the court. Still, Carrick Felix is a low maintenance guy who has the motor and maturity teams like at the end of their bench. He won't have a problem transitioning to a role player in the NBA because he pretty much already is one. Look for him to go to smart team in the 50s. He could turn into a poor man's version of Jimmy Butler down the line.

The Case For Adonis Thomas

2013-05-16T11:56:00.001-07:00

One of the quickest risers in this draft has been Glen Rice Jr. He's a guy who didn't put up very good numbers in college, took a unique route to the D-League, and saw his stock take off in the process. He was a talented player at Georgia Tech, but he just didn't stand out as much as a guy with his talents should. He wasn't always aggressive and his unselfishness was mistaken for passiveness. If he had entered the draft after he was suspended last season, Glen Rice Jr wouldn't have even gotten drafted.

That changed in the D-League where the game is much closer to the NBA. College basketball and the NBA are two completely different games, while the D-League can almost work as a way to bridge the gap between them. With a 24 second shot clock, less offensive sets, quicker pace, and a more open court things are certainly different from college. Players aren't restricted by their teams offensive sets and they are put in a position where they have to be more aggressive. Players can rely more on their physical gifts and instincts. Their versatility is also able to show more.

I already profiled Glen Rice Jr (read here), but Adonis Thomas has similar qualities that could help him be a better fit in the NBA than he was in college. Unlike Rice Jr, Thomas isn't going directly to the D-League however, and is instead choosing to jump right into the draft. And while his stock is down, a GM would be mistaken to sleep on Thomas the same way they slept on Rice Jr because of their situation in college.

The beauty of scouting is to be able to see players in different systems and project their skills to a higher level. Nobody can debate that Thomas or Rice Jr underachieved in college and I'm not trying to do that. I know all the question marks about Adonis Thomas. And a lot of them are the same questions that were brought up about Glen Rice Jr last year.

Like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas is a very good athlete who often times blended in too much in college. Everyone yearned for him to be more aggressive. When he was, you saw his ability to get all the way to the rim and finish. His ability to get to the rim is even better than Glen Rice Jr's.

Also like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas has a high basketball IQ and a good feel for the game. He moved well off the ball, made the right passes, and played within his teams offense.

Adonis Thomas is also very versatile and can score in the post, mid-range, and also step out and hit jumpers. You don't see a lot of small forwards doing that in college, but you see plenty more of it in the NBA. The NBA is all about mismatches and Thomas can take advantage of them. Same thing goes for Glen Rice Jr, who was able to show a post game once he got to the D-League.

If Adonis Thomas took the same route as Glen Rice Jr, I don't think there is any question he'd be in the discussion for a first round pick. Some may question his decision to leave Memphis with his stock at an all time low, but it was obvious that the situation at Memphis wasn't a good fit for him. Thomas stuck it out for two years, was professional and a team player throughout, and did what the team wanted him to do.

He played power forward a lot even though he will be a perimeter player at the next level. That has hurt his stock, but it should act as a testament for his willingness to do anything to help his team. Not many former top recruits would willingly play out of position. Thomas even added weight to bang down low, which in turn limited his athleticism. Since the season, he's already started to work on shedding that weight and getting back to the point where he was an elite athlete. He no longer has to focus on playing inside, although the skills he learned playing in the post will be valuable to him.

Thomas also wasn't able to focus on his perimeter shooting in college and thats something I expect him to be able to improve fairly easily with repetition. You've probably been reading this thinking that the biggest difference between Glen Rice Jr and Adonis Thomas is their shooting ability - and you'd be right.

But Thomas did shoot well in a limited number of attempts his freshman season and has always hit the mid-range jump shot well. His his stroke is consistent and his mechanics are consistent (albeit a little slow). Some of the biggest surprises in the draft the past couple of years are guys who were said to be poor shooters - such as Kawhi Leonard and Chandler Parsons - but like Thomas, both of them were asked to do a lot more things around the rim at college. Now that Thomas is able to focus on slimming down and working on his perimeter shooting, he will start to look even more like a prototypical wing prospect.

One thing that Thomas was able to hang his hat on was his defense and that should get even better as he continues to complete his transition to a full time perimeter player. He competes, has a 7 foot wingspan, good strength, a solid motor, and the versatility to be an impact player on that end of the court. He didn't always make as big as an impact as he could have for Memphis, but he will at least be a very solid defender with the potential to be great. Sticking with the comparisons to Glen Rice Jr, Thomas has the better size and frame along with the athleticism.

Adonis Thomas and Glen Rice Jr certainly aren't the same player nor do they possesses the same skill set. But they do both have similar playing styles and a feel for the game that often gets overlooked when evaluating college prospects. Smart team play turns into criticisms about their passiveness. In college, they are looked at to be stars of their teams. Neither did that. But in the NBA, they will be looked at to be another piece of the puzzle that helps you win games. Nobody will be complaining about their passiveness in the NBA nor will they be as passive. Both have great instincts and athleticism and will be able to utilize those abilities much more freely.

Adonis Thomas is currently projected by some analysts not to get drafted which is a complete oversight and overreaction to someone they once considered a lottery pick. While his lack of production warrants concern and a drop in his stock, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a successful NBA player. Unlike a lot of big time athletes who leave early without much production, Thomas isn't a guy with an unrealistic view of himself nor does he have any character concerns. He's actually a pretty cerebral player. And while I am not vouching that he should be a lottery pick as he was once projected, he deserves late first round consider and should definitely be off the board at the top of the second round where contracts aren't guaranteed.

For more on Adonis Thomas, check out my scouting report on him following his freshman season http://nbaprospects.blogspot.com/2012/08/scouting-report-adonis-thomas.html

2013 Point Guard Prospects By the Numbers

2013-05-13T14:36:00.002-07:00

In part two of our look at the "other" point guards in the draft, I examine each of their statistics and put some meaning behind their numbers. All stats are courtesy of hoop-math.com, a site dedicated to logging play by play data. Big thanks to them for all the work they do. These numbers aren't perfect because box scores aren't always accurate, but they do give you a pretty clear picture with the large sample size.

% of Shots at the Rim

Myck Kabongo - 53%

Ray McCallum - 45%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Nate Wolters - 30%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 25%

Phil Pressey - 25%

Erick Green - 23%

Isaiah Canaan - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 12%

FG% at the Rim

Nate Wolters - 67%

Erick Green - 67%

Ray McCallum - 66%

Pierre Jackson - 64%

Shane Larkin - 62%

Lorenzo Brown - 61%

Myck Kabongo - 60%

Isaiah Canaan - 56%

Matthew Dellavedova - 53%

Phil Pressey - 45%

Assisted at the Rim

Ray McCallum - 39%

Nate Wolters - 26%

Pierre Jackson - 24%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

Erick Green - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 21%

Shane Larkin - 18%

Myck Kabongo - 14%

Isaiah Canaan - 13%

Phil Pressey - 7%

Analysis: Myck Kabongo gets to the rim as well as any player, but thats about his only move. He doesn't do a good job at controlling himself on the way to the basket and is in the bottom half in terms of FG% at the rim.

You can also see that Ray McCallum got a lot of easy buckets at the rim, but did a good job playing without the ball in his hands. Detroit really pushed the pace and McCallum slid over to the off guard spot without a problem at times. On the contrary, you can see that Canaan, Pressey, and Kabongo are the 3 guys who NEED the ball in their hands the most to be effective.

If you're looking for the best finisher, it looks like a toss up between Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Green's numbers are especially impressive given the lack of talent around him and the competition he went up against. He still showed the ability to move without the ball and was able to finish in the lane thanks to his soft touch.

Pressey, Canaan, and Dellevadova faired really poorly based of these numbers. That shouldn't be a surprise. All three guys were hesitant to go to the rim, thus limiting their chances, but they were still unable to be efficient. And while Canaan and Dellavedova make up for it with their outside shooting, its something Pressey will really need to improve on in order to keep defenses honest.

% of 2-pt Jumpers Taken

Erick Green - 49%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Phil Pressey - 37%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Matthew Dellavedova - 33%

Isaiah Canaan - 29%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 26%

Ray McCallum - 24%

Myck Kabongo - 23%

FG% 2-pt Jumpers

Shane Larkin - 45%

Nate Wolters - 45%

Erick Green - 43%

Isaiah Canaan - 42%

Matthew Dellavedova - 42%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Pierre Jackson - 35%

Ray McCallum - 35%

Lorenzo Brown - 30%

Myck Kabongo - 12%

% of 2-pt Jumpers Assists

Pierre Jackson - 13%

Isaiah Canaan - 12%

Ray McCallum - 10%

Erick Green - 10%

Shane Larkin - 9%

Matthew Dellavedova - 4%

Lorenzo Brown - 3%

Nate Wolters - 3%

Phil Pressey - 2%

Myck Kabongo - 0%

Analysis: Once again, I think Nate Wolters and Erick Green measure up the best in this area. Both get a lot of shots off in the mid-range area and make a high percentage. And in the NBA, the have the size and feel for the game to continue to have success in the mid-range area.

Lorenzo Brown and Myck Kabongo were the two with the worst numbers. Neither did very well at the rim either, although both get most of their offense from inside the arc. That obviously brings up some questions with how they will be able to score in the NBA. Both will need to improve their pace of play as well of their jumpers to be able to play in the NBA.

Shane Larkin shot as well as anyone from the 2-pt range and probably has the best floater of anyone in the group. But his ability to get his mid-range jumper off and change speeds is still holding him back from being on the level of Erick Green and Nate Wolters. The same can be said for Pierre Jackson, although he didn't shot the ball as well the rest.

% of Shots from 3-pt Range

Matthew Dellavedova - 55%

Isaiah Canaan - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 49%

Shane Larkin - 44%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Ray McCallum - 31%

Erick Green - 29%

Myck Kabongo - 25%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

3-pt FG%

Matthew Dellavedova - 40%

Erick Green - 39%

Shane Larkin - 39%

Nate Wolters - 38%

Isaiah Canaan - 36%

Pierre Jackson - 36%

Ray McCallum - 33%

Phil Pressey - 32%

Myck Kabongo - 30%

Lorenzo Brown - 27%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted

Myck Kabongo - 75%

Erick Green - 66%

Lorenzo Brown - 65%

Matthew Dellavedova - 62%

Ray McCallum - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 47%

Nate Wolters - 46%

Isaiah Canaan - 41%

Phil Pressey - 39%

Shane Larkin - 37%

Analysis: Matthew Dellavedova shows why he's in this discussion to begin with as he hit 3-pt shots at the best rate and also the highest volume.

After him, the next 4 guys in terms of volume 3-pt shooting also happen to be the smallest. Pressey, Jackson, Larkin, and Canaan all get a lot of their offense from deep. Small guys have to be able to knock down shots consistently and for Pressey and Jackson there is a question with just how good of shooters they are. You also see why there is reason to question a guy like Jackson's shot selection and ability to run an offense. Despite his ability to break down a defense, he takes a lot of deep 3-pters outside of the flow of offense. While Jackson can be a dynamic scorer at times, he isn't consistently solid at just making the simple/right plays. That hurts his overall PG skills.

On the other end of the spectrum, its impressive how little Erick Green settles for 3-pt shots despite his success from there. Part of it may because of his shot release - his shooting mechanics have been developed for him to get mid-range jumpers off - not shoot from deep. But there is no doubt that he is one of the best shooters in this group.

Shane Larkin may not be a better shooter than Dellavedova, but he is certainly dynamic and may be the best at creating the shot next to Isaiah Canaan. He had the least amount of 3-pters assists, but still hit 39% at a high volume. Combine that with his 2-pt shooting prowess and there is little doubt he can light it up from all over the court. He's got some poor man's Steph Curry to him even though he's shorter and not QUITE the shooter.

Overall: The most balanced scorers look to be Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Both had a lot of pressure on them to score the ball, but still succeeded. Neither racked up the assists like other prospects, but they both have two of the better basketball IQs among the group. Their ability to score all over the floor and be a threat will make their passing game that much more lethal. And both do have the passing skills, they just weren't asked to show them that much at their respective schools. Erick Green will have a bigger transition to make as he played off ball more than any other prospect.

Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown all have question marks about their ability to score the ball and will have to show that they can hit jumpers more consistently. Pierre Jackson appeared to be on another level as those guys, but didn't show the balance and shooting ability you'd like to see from a guy marketed as a dynamic scorer.

Shane Larkin looked good according to these numbers, but it will be interesting to see how he does against better athletes who don't have to give him as much space. Once he gets to the NBA, he will need to find a way to shoot from mid-range. If he does, he has the makings of a poor man's Steph Curry.

Examining The PGs Outside of Burke, MCW, and Schroeder

2013-05-12T20:27:00.000-07:00

One of the most intriguing positions this year is the lead guard position. The position is far from top heavy with just Trey Burke a lock for the lottery. It even lacks any other locks for the first round besides Michael Carter-Williams and CJ McCollom if you count him. What it does have is a lot of second round depth and a lot of competition. You can be certain that there will be another PG besides the ones mentioned above going in the first round, but the question is who? There are plenty of names to choose from and all of them have an argument to go within the first 30 picks. The second round could see quite a few point guards taken, which has not been a trend of the past couple of years. This draft lacks the surefire starters, but it could produce as many quality NBA rotational players since at least 2009.

Trey Burke is by far and away the best point guard in this class and is also arguably the safest pick in the entire draft. Depending on who wins the lottery, he could even go #1 overall. At the end of the day, I don't see a likely scenario where he slips out of the top 5.

Burke doesn't have the measurables or athleticism of your typical top 5 point guard. He might not even measure 6-0 and isn't ultra quick or explosive. But what he does have is an advanced knowledge of the game. Burke understands when to attack, when to pass, and how to get his teammates the ball where they need it. He runs the pick and roll like a surgeon and is always in complete control of the offense. He can get his points when needed, but he is also a great passer who makes his teammates better.

His predecessor, Darius Morris, took an entire year before he understood John Beilein's complex system enough to gain his trust. Thats why he was one of the most improved players statistically his sophomore season. Its just very hard to adjust to Beilein's offense as a freshman.

Yet Trey Burke was good enough to start his freshman year and allowed plenty of freedom from John Beilein. Based off that alone, you could tell that this kid was going to be special.

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits. Trey Burke has all of that.

There are other guys in this draft that lack these things, but have gotten by on potential. Myck Kabongo comes to mind immediately. You can even include Lorenzo Brown to an extent as his develop as a point guard isn't what you'd like to see from a junior. Michael Carter-Williams fits as well, although he's viewed on a higher tier as the rest of these guys. If you want to read more on him, check out my latest Stock Attack.

I want to focus more on the rest of the collegiate point guards in this piece and give a good overview on what to expect from each of them. All of these guys have a chance to stick in the NBA.

Nate Wolters

Strengths: Wolters is known for his scoring, but his biggest asset may be the way he attacks a defense. He knows how to read a defense and react. He understands angles and forces defenses to commit to him. He's a good passer who does an excellent job getting his teammates in good spots. He is also a very tough competitor and a gym rat. His jumper got better every year and he is constantly looking for ways to perfect it. There is a stigma around him that he's a just a shooter, but he's a very balanced scoring who looks to attack off the bounce more often than not. He should be very good in the pick and roll as he really has a good feel with the ball in his hands. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Jeremy Lin.

Weaknesses: Wolters is just a average athlete and will need to get stronger to play at the next level. He lacks the explosiveness to be a great finisher around the rim. He also struggles to stay in front of players, although he did a great job funneling Trey Burke into help defense in the NCAA tournament. Wolters has good height to help him overcome some of his shortcomings athletically, but below average length for his size.

Shane Larkin

Strengths: Larkin is very quick and is nearly impossible to contain in the pick and roll. He's a pure shooter with a quick release. He also has good touch inside with a very reliable floater and is able to change speeds. He did a good job mixing up his scoring and his passing this year. He has excellent burst and can beat you in many different ways. He's very comfortable shooting off the dribble in either direction and its very tough to stop him. He does a good job getting his jumpers off, but he doesn't look to settle for just jumpers. Larkin is also a very confident and competitive player who doesn't get rattled.

Weaknesses: Larkin will measure out at under 6-0 at the combine most likely. And while he is very quick and fast, he isn't the most explosive player. He lacks a great build, although he is stronger and tougher than he looks. He also will have to continue to prove his passing abilities and show that he is a true point guard. His in between game also needs work. Defenses in the NBA won't be as afraid of his quickness, so he will have to deal more with tighter defense and NBA length. He didn't see much of that in college because his speed forced teams to go under screens and give him room. He also struggles to get all the way to the rim even though his floater game render that a moot point in college.

Erick Green

Strengths: Erick Green was arguably the best scorer in the country this season and a large part was due to his silky smooth jumper. He's very quick and had no problem creating space to get shots off and elevating over opponents. He has a great mid-range game and is effective in the pick and roll. Green also is lethal in transition where he forces a defender to stop him dead in his tracks if they want to prevent a bucket. Green has a high basketball IQ and is very unselfish, despite his scoring numbers. At Virginia Tech, they needed him to be a scorer so that is what he did, but it doesn't mean he can't run point guard. He just didn't have a good team around him. Finally, Green is a good defender who managed to play hard on that end of the court well. He is obviously very well conditioned.

Weaknesses: Green has spent his time at Virginia Tech being a scorer and hasn't had time gaining experience as a true point guard. He will have to learn the position as he goes in the NBA. Green also has a narrow frame and lacks strength. He could have trouble defending stronger guards. Green also may struggle against physical defense. His lack of success in college in terms of winning will also be something teams will look for answers to.

Phil Pressey

Strengths: Pressey is a pure point guard who gets into the lane at will and finds teammates. He plays with a ton of confidence and with the sense that he is always the best player on the court. He is one of the few pass first point guards in college nowadays and possessing outstanding vision. He's a creative passer and is able to create plays from nothing. He does an excellent job pushing the ball in transition and can stop and pull up on the move. There is plenty of fight with Pressey and he wants to win badly. He always wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

Weaknesses: Pressey will have to overcome his size and his inability to finish at the rim at the next level. He also made some questionable decisions down the stretch of games this season. He tries to do too much a lot of times and turned it over more than any other PG prospect. Although he has great vision, his game management needs a lot of work. Pressey had a bit of a down year after most of his teammates left for the NBA last season. He's a solid shooter, but not great and will have trouble getting his shot off in the pros. Defense will also be hard for him and he didn't always play with good effort on that side of the ball. He lacks the explosiveness or scoring instincts of other small guards who have been successful in the NBA as of late.

Pierre Jackson

Strengths: Jackson is a dynamic player, both in terms of scoring and passing. He was the first player since Jason Terry to lead a BCS conference in scoring and assists. Jackson is very quick and packs a lot of explosiveness in his small frame. He can get to his spots at will on the court, pull up and hit mid-range jumpers, and also knock down deep threes. Jackson also has no problem breaking down defenses and creating for others. He's a competitive, hard working player who doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. He projects as a Nate Robinson type instant offense off the bench, but with better court sense.

Weaknesses: Jackson is another guard who is undersized and may be closer to 5-9 than 6-0. He will struggle defensively and will also need to show a better effort there. Jackson will need to add some bulk to continue to play his style. He also needs to continue to work on his point guard skills by changing speeds and making the simple plays. He turns the ball over a little too much at this point.

Isaiah Canaan

Strengths: Canaan was one of the best scorers in college basketball thanks to his jump shot with unlimited range. He mastered the art of pulling up from deep in transition. He also is able to create his shot with his crossover and step back move from both 3-pt range and inside the arc. Canaan has a strong frame and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He is also very good shooting with his feet set. In terms of putting the ball in the basket, there aren't many guys that do it better than him.

Weaknesses: Canaan is undersized and not a pure point guard. He doesn't get off the ground very quickly. His shot release is also a little slow for a guy who projects as a shooter at the next level. Canaan looks to score more than pass and its not clear whether he has the ability to make plays for others. This year he was able to show improvement in terms of changing speeds. It is also a question of whether he can defend. Canaan struggled to answer many of these questions last summer during skill camps.

Myck Kabongo

Strengths: Kabongo has very good length and quickness for a point guard, enabling him to be a pesky defender and come up with plenty of steals. Kabongo has no problem breaking down defenses and getting into the paint, where he is a solid drive and dish point guard. He has good handles and has budding leadership skills. Kabongo also is a high character guy who has been through a lot in his life. The general skills that Kabongo possess are what many seek in a point guard - high character, defense, pass first, quickness, and the ability to get by defenders.

Weaknesses: Kabongo never put together a good season in college and was suspended for his relationship with a NBA agent. While he seems like a good kid, many believe he is being misled by those around him. Kabongo also has poor mechanics on his shot and lacks a great feel for the point guard position. He only plays at one speed and dominates the ball. He's also turnover prone and needs to get stronger. His ability to run a team will need major work and he'll likely have to spend a year in the D-League at least.

Ray McCallum

Strengths: McCallum turned it over less than any other point guard with the potential to get drafted, despite being a huge part of his teams offense. He is the coach's son and plays like one. He plays under control and at a steady pace. He is able to get all the way to the rim, but also has a developing mid-range game. McCallum is a very good passer as well, although this season he took on the scoring role. Part of the reason his turnovers were so low was because he took a lot of quick jumpers and didn't attempt to force any drives or passes. McCallum is deceptively quick and does a good job running the pick and roll. He is also a solid athlete.

Weaknesses: McCallum improved his jumper this year, but still shot a fairly low percentage from the 3-pt line. His jumper looked good, however, and he had to take a lot of tough contested shots. There is also a question of whether McCallum is dynamic enough as a player. He doesn't do anything at an elite or even very good level. McCallum also has short arms and can have trouble finishing at the next level. He didn't play against the best competition, but should look better when he is surrounded by better teammates and able to play as a more tradition PG.

Lorenzo Brown

Strengths: Brown possesses very good height and vision for a point guard. He is able to break down defenses and is crafty with his passing and ball handling. He has made the transition from a high school combo guard to a success college point guard while racking up plenty of assists. Brown also does a very good job when he is able to push the ball in transition and has good foot work en route to the rim. He is able to finish in a variety of ways. He's a fluid athlete who uses his long strides to his advantage. He can create his own shots pretty easily thanks to his size, ball handling, and creativity.

Weaknesses: Brown is still learning the nuances of being a point guard and was the leader of a very inconsistent and underperforming North Carolina State team. He is also a poor shooter who saw his shooting numbers drop to record lows this season. Brown also can be too crafty for his own good - often making shots at the rim tougher than they should be and trying to get into seams where he can't fit through. He doesn't do a good job drawing fouls despite his slashing ability, which is a result of him trying to avoid contact. He lacks the strength to finish with contact. He is also old for his class and will be 23 by the time the 2013-14 NBA season kicks off.

Honorable Mention:

Matthew Dellavedova

Dellavedova is an outstanding shooter and combines that with great size and strength. He has proven he can run a team both in college and at the Olympic level. His experience shows on the court and he passes over the defense very well. Dellevadova knows how to use the pick and roll to his advantage, although he rarely gets to the rim. He's an underrated prospect who gets dismissed because he isn't a very good athlete.

Conclusion:

I believe that Pierre Jackson is the most NBA ready point guard of this group to fill a role. He fits perfectly into the Nate Robinson/Isaiah Thomas role. However, I don't see him ever being a consistent starter which is why I'd consider taking a few other guys over him.

Right now Nate Wolters, Erick Green, Ray McCallum, and Shane Larkin each have a better chance than Jackson of developing into a starter. Each of them also have question marks that could have them glued to the bench or out of the league in a few years. But this is a very solid group and I believe at least one will turn into a NBA starting point guard. Green is the best shooter of the bunch and also looks to be the best defender. He is also able to score at all three levels, has high character, and NBA level quickness/explosiveness which is why I currently have him ranked higher than anyone else on this list.

But McCallum and Wolters are both intriguing guys who could end up being better once they are surrounded by better teammates. They both have very good point guard skills, but were asked to be more of scorers for their teams. While they aren't typical "upside" guys, they could surprise people who aren't familiar with them.

Larkin doesn't have the size of the other three nor does he have the experience. His transition to the NBA looks to be a little rougher which is why I think he shouldn't get selected until Round 2. His upside is also kind of a mystery. The other guys have more defined roles as true point guards and are more ready to contribute which is why I believe they should get some consideration as possible late first round picks.

Finally, we have Isaiah Canaan, Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown. For Kabongo, I see too big of a question mark to invest a first round pick on. He won't be ready to contribute for a few years and will need to grind in the D-League to ever be successful. An unguaranteed contract has his name written all over it.

Canaan doesn't have the point guard skills to ever start in the NBA and if you want a scorer off the bench, Pierre Jackson is a better bet. Canaan to me seems like a guy who will likely be out of the league in a few years.

Pressey and Brown quite frankly, haven't impressed me. Pressey is a pass first point guard who makes questionable decisions. He can't shoot, defend, or finish inside. Brown failed to lead his college team and is old by NBA draft standards. He has a lot of holes in his game for a 22 year old and the likelihood of him fixing those holes aren't great, especially considering he took a step back this season.

Stock Attack: Michael Carter-Williams

2013-05-11T17:49:00.001-07:00

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits.

Trey Burke has all of that. When it comes to Michael Carter-Williams, I'm hesitant to say he possesses any of those qualities. He disappeared from plenty of games. His passing consisted of a lot of drive and kicks and transition feeds. Yes, MCW did post great assists numbers. But how the assists were obtained are more important. When I look at MCW, I ask if he can consistently make plays out of the pick and roll and find teammates. Or if he can control the pace, set the offense, and make the simple plays. Where is his mid-range game? Carter-Williams makes a lot of spectacular plays and is a helluva talent, but he hasn't shown he can be a model of consistency. That is troubling from a point guard prospect.

There were a lot of games where Carter-Williams was quiet for an entire half and dominated the other. For some guys, thats just a matter of them knowing when to take over. For Carter-Williams, it was more of him being taken out of the game by the defense.

We are talking about a guy whose skills aren't up to par. He shoots a very flat shot with inconsistent mechanics. Some say he was a better shooter in HS, but that doesn't mean anything to me after he's had more than a full season at the college level. I saw that he did shoot well in Nike's EYBL events in AAU, but I don't take much stock into that. Those rims are very kind to make the players look better and benefit guys who don't shoot with much arc.

If you can't make shots consistently, the rest of your game better be refined. Carter-Williams is not. His ball handling skills are weak and magnified by his lack of strength. When he drives and the defense doesn't collapse on him to give him a passing option, he struggles to finish. He does have a nice floater, but can't get it off consistently. He lacks an explosive first step. Instead, Carter-Williams has to rely on his above average quickness for his size and a solid crossover. It works, but its much more of a shooting guard move than a point guard.

A point guard shouldn't need to overdribble to get his shot off. A point guard should understand how to change speeds and work the pick and roll game effectively. Burke was never taken out of games because he could always makes plays if he got a ball screen. Carter-Williams has a tougher task to operate in the pick and roll due to his height and he doesn't do himself any favors either. He doesn't change speeds well or mix up his strides. He's very shaky with the ball when two defenders are around him and his passing instincts look much more raw when it comes to more advanced plays.

Again, the drive and kick play is the most simple way for a point guard to get assists. Its the most basic play that any point guard should be able to execute. Carter-Williams can do it with the best of them in college, but that doesn't make him a point guard. That is just the initial layer to being a point guard and when you look for more layers to his game, they aren't present.

Carter-Williams also struggled mightily against ball pressure as you saw if you watched the Big East Championship game against Louisville. For the first half, MCW and Cuse played well enough to have the lead. In the second half, Louisville turned up their defensive pressure and completely blew out Syracuse. The difference in halves was remarkable and the biggest blame goes to the point guard.

Then there was the Final 4 game against Michigan. Carter-Williams fouled out and went to the bench crying as if the game was over. Except it wasn't and Syracuse almost won the game. But there he was sitting on the bench with his head buried in a towel instead of cheering on his team. A leader doesn't act as if the game is over because he fouled out. Throughout the year, Syracuse was one of the most up and down teams in the country and there wasn't much leadership coming from their point guard. For a guy who should be the rock of the team, Carter-Williams was one of the most inconsistent players - both with his play on the court and in his emotions. You shouldn't ever get too high or too low as a basketball player - especially as a point guard. Its yet another thing Michael Carter-Williams has to overcome.

He gets some comparisons to Shaun Livingston but Livingston was a great athlete coming out of high school while Carter-Williams is just "good" athletically. Also, Carter-Williams wasn't even considered a point guard coming out of HS and there was a reason for that. Shaun Livingston had such pure point guard skills he was compared to Magic Johnson.

Defensively, Michael Carter-Williams has all the tools and good instincts to go with it. He had plenty of steals operating at the top of the zone and while his length and the system certainly helped, his ability to play the passing lanes should somewhat translate to the NBA. The biggest worry about his defense though is that he doesn't have experience at a high level playing man to man defense. And in recent times, Syracuse players have really struggled to make the adjustment. Even guys like Wes Johnson who people believed had all the athletic tools to make up for player in a zone. Right now, its just a very risky proposition to take a Syracuse player for his defensive ability. Carter-Williams could turn out to be very good defensively, but I wouldn't view it as a sure thing.

Potential is a word that is often associated with Michael Carter-Williams when you point out all these flaws. Sure, he has the height that most other point guards don't have. You can't teach size. But its also very hard to learn and improve all his other weaknesses when there are so many. There is potential and then there is the chances a player reaches his potential. I understand that you can't count out a guy improving his skills, but you can say a guy won't grow, but I'll take players with the necessary skills and ability over a guy with height anyday. Those attributes are very hard to improve as well. And at the age of 21, Michael Carter-Williams is far from the youngest player in the draft.

Jimmy Butler Getting It Done for the Bulls

2013-05-10T19:20:00.002-07:00

When I first started doing this, Jimmy Butler was one of my favorite players. He was criminally overlooked throughout his entire college career and it took a Portsmouth MVP winning performance to get him in the first round. But even then, Butler was slept on and seen as a reach.

Now the Jimmy Butler bandwagon is at full capacity and I just want to make sure I still have my front row seats. Its great to see a player like Butler who wasnt known at all in his high school days succeed at the NBA level. Especially if you are familiar with his back story.

Here are some of my tweets I dug up dating back to when I first started tweeting, back in 2009 - Butler's junior season.

Statistically speaking, Jimmy Butler is very underrated. I bet Hollinger's system will have him as a 1st rounder if he keep his stats up
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) December 30, 2009

Jimmy Butler looked good vs Nova. starting to really like him as a sleeper for next yr. has the makings of a nice role player
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) January 3, 2010

@draftexpress is Jimmy Butler getting on your radar at all? NBA SF body with nice stats playing out of position. understands role, unselfish
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) February 21, 2010

Butler = clutch! RT @ballinisahabit Jimmy Butler just hit a buzzer beater.
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) February 25, 2010

Jimmy Butler with a nice entry pass into the post for an easy dunk. #itsthelittlethings
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) November 13, 2010

Nolan Smith and Jimmy Butler are two guys I would show to kids looking to learn how to play the game.
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) November 23, 2010

Been saying tht for a yr RT @ballinisahabit This is why I've been saying jimmy Butler is one of the most underrated players in the country.
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) November 23, 2010

Jimmy Butler is always in the right place.
— Josh Stirn (@NBAProspectBlog) November 13, 2010

Stock Attack: Mason Plumlee

2013-05-10T15:17:00.000-07:00

Every year there are a couple of players that jump out at me as extremely overrated and Mason Plumlee headlines that list in 2013. He's been projected in the lottery, even top 10, all season long and still sits in the lottery discussion today. His stock looks more unstable now with Gorgui Dieng getting a lot of recognition and Steven Adams deciding to enter the draft, but there is still a strong belief that Plumlee will be a solid third big man.

Personally, I've never seen it with him. I've said all season long that Gorgui Dieng is the better prospect and still stand by it. Dieng makes fewer mental mistake, can consistently hit jumpers, and is a bigger presence at the rim.

Scouts like Mason Plumlee because he has improved every year. Thats one way at looking at it. But I see a guy who vastly underachieved his first few seasons given his situation and athleticism. Name me a Duke player who hasn't made big strides under Coach K. Look at how Nolan Smith is looking in the NBA.

This year Mason Plumlee did look much better, in part because he was more aggressive. He wasn't afraid of going to the foul line anymore since his shooting at the line improved.

History says that seniors that improve a lot their final year aren't to be trusted and the eye test gives similar concerns. If it takes you four years to put it together at a school like Duke when you have great athleticism, that sends up some major red flags. Coach K consistently gets the most out of his players, gets them drafted higher than they should be, and then we hear all about how Duke can't produce NBA players. Yet time and time again everyone falls into the trap of Coach K's magic.

Of course, evaluating prospects is a still a case by case basis. While Plumlee has his age and school as red flags, that is no way to determine if a guy is overrated. But when you watch Plumlee play, the amount of mental mistakes he makes throws up yet another red flag.

Then you get to talking about his position. Is he a power forward or a center? His mechanical style, lack of lateral quickness, smarts, or shooting ability suggest that he can't play power forward well. But as a center, his narrow hips and 6'10 wingspan are both major deterrents. You can improve your upperbody strength all you want, but genetically small hips are a different story.

But what about his offensive game, you say? He did put up over 17ppg in the ACC. But what translates? He isn't hitting jumpers at a consistent rate. He constantly got pushed out of good post position on the block due to lack of strength. Plumlee did show off an improved post game this year and as I said, his aggressiveness didn't hurt either. But his post game is still very mechanical. There is no rhyme or reason to his moves. He makes a lot of awful plays the end of successful because of his athleticism and new found confidence. Take away some of that confidence he gained from this season and you are back to a passive player without much else. And its a fact that his confidence will take a hit once he reaches the NBA - it happens to most players.

Plumlee's post moves consist of a nice right handed hook shot and then a lot of freestyle. A lot of stuff he won't get away with at the next level. He can't freestyle his way to the rim in the pros from post position 15 feet out. The help defense is too good.

It is really hard to pinpoint what Plumlee's strengths will be at the next level. Is it his defense or offense? Is he just a good all-around player or a player who isnt good at anything?

I've been leaning towards the latter side so much that I've fallen over. And based of Mason Plumlee's lack of balance, he better be careful he doesn't bust and fall on his face as well.

Five Biggest Myths of the 2013 NBA Draft

2013-05-08T20:42:00.002-07:00

Statement #1: Otto Porter only just started shooting well this year.

A lot of people think Otto Porter's shooting is a fluke because only shot 22% from 3-pt range his freshman season. While that is reasonable, people are missing how great Porter was shooting mid-range jumpers his first season. Porter didn't play AAU and the 3-pt ball wasn't stressed to him as much as most kids. Instead, shooting mechanics were a priority and his are very consistent. According to hoop-math.com, Porter shot an outstanding 51% on 2-pt jumpers last season. This season he worked to extend his range back a few feet which resulted him him taking twice as many threes while making 42.2% of them. Porter will have to adjust even farther to the NBA line, but make no mistake that he can shoot the ball. His situation from year one to two is a lot like a young power hitter who didn't hit a lot of homers his first season, but had a lot of doubles. You know the power is there, it was just shown in a different way.

Statement #2: Cody Zeller will be a major reliability on defense

News flash: Today's NBA is different from the NBA from a decade or two ago. Being a big, strong post defender isn't priority number one for your defensive bigs. NBA bigs mobility and basketball IQ are tested more than ever now and Zeller measures strongly in both facets of the game. Zeller was very good defending in space at Indiana and did a great job hedging on screens. He beats players to spots on the floor to pick up charges, doesn't foul a lot, and has a good motor. While he isn't a big shot blocking deterrent at the rim, he will be great guarding finesse bigs and power forwards. He's not a center and should be paired with a defender who can compliment him with shotblocking ability.

Statement #3: Anthony Bennett has a polished offensive game

This is also false. Anthony Bennett has all the tools to have a very diverse and polished offensive game, but he didn't show it in college. His play in the halfcourt mainly consistent of him drifting around the perimeter and hitting jump shots - which he is very good at. Bennett showed glimpses of his offensive gifts in transition by taking the ball the length of the court, but he was much less aggressive in the halfcourt. Bennett didn't score often from the post nor did he ever show the ability to take defenders off the perimeter. Both of these things that Bennett has the tools to do, but he still has to show it on the court. His offensive game has a lot of potential, but let's not anoint him great at anything yet.

Statement #4: CJ McCollum is the next Damian Lillard

The success of Damian Lillard and the timely rise to stardom of Steph Curry has created a perfect storm for CJ McCollum. While I have always had him in the top ten, he doesn't have the same potential as either of the aforementioned players. However, the success of both players will have a positive effect on his draft stock and it should. You can't ignore how well the last two high scoring lottery picks from small schools has fared and McCollum has a pretty high floor. He's a cerebral kid on and off the court and can flat out score the ball. He's a very hard worker and seems destined to carve out a scoring role off the bench at the very least.

Statement #5: Jamaal Franklin has the potential to be an All-Star

The role that Jamaal Franklin will play at the next level seems to be far from a consensus. People see athleticism and creativeness on offense and automatically relate it to a high upside. Truth is, Franklin is a streaky shooter who possesses average ball handling ability and decision making. That severely limits his upside on offense. He's not a guy you want making plays for you in the NBA. However, Franklin is a tough player who gets after it on defense with great instincts. A coach will need to be able to tone down his offensive game, but if Franklin is willing, he can become a good NBA defender. He'll be able to spark the offensive at times too, but that won't be his game. Franklin's character has both been questioned and praised by onlookers, but it sounds like he's just a guy whose competitiveness has been directed the wrong way at times. Early word out of workouts is that Franklin has been a big time positive presence cheering on fellow prospects. Thats a great sign.

Is Canadian Warren Ward a NBA Prospect?

2013-05-08T17:28:00.000-07:00

Canadian basketball has received plenty of attention in the past year thanks to the influx of talent that has matriculated into the NCAA and also Andrew Wiggins - the best player high school player since possibly LeBron James. In this years draft alone there are potentially 3 first rounders hailing from Canada, with Kelly Olynyk and Anthony Bennett both with a case to be selected in the lottery. Myck Kabongo and his cousin Christian Kabongo both entered their names in the draft as well.

Plenty of Canadian talent is jumping the border to play both high school and college basketball in the states, but Canada also has their own version of the NCAA. It goes by the name CIS and while it has failed to attract Canada's top talent, it seems that the league has slowly grown as basketball becomes a more mainstream sport north of the border. If top tier talent is emerging from Canada, one has to believe that there is some solid talent developing in their college system as well.

The CIS hasnt produced a NBA Draft pick since William Njoku in 1994 who went off the board to the Pacers with the 41st pick. And while that won't change this year, they do have a player by the name of Warren Ward who could end up cracking a D-League roster and working his way up.

Warren Ward played for the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees and has been training in Las Vegas down at Impact Basketball with the likes of Marcus Fizer, Dion Waiters, and a bunch of legitimate NBA Draft hopefuls. And from reports around the web, Ward has been doing more than just holding his own in the gym.

Unfortunately after checking his draft eligibility, Warren's time to declare has past and he will be an unrestricted free agent instead. He was with Ottawa for five years and tore his ACL during the 2011-12 season. Ward was also born in 1989.

I decided to take a look back at a couple of Warren Ward's college games to see if all the fuss was worth it. After all, its not very hard to impress in a workout setting.

My first observation in watching CIS games was the level of competition. Its not great. Warren Ward was the best athlete on the court at all times. Ward stands at 6-6 and has a strong frame to go with it. The pace and intensity of the games aren't very high and there is a lot of room for players to show off their skills.

In the games I watched, Ward has no problem taking defenders down into the post and going to work on them. Unless a double team came, Ward was able to take his time and carve out space to create a good shot. He almost plays like the Kobe Bryant of the CIS. He can play with his back to the basket, hit the turnaround jumper, and also make some basic post moves to the basket. He also directs traffic and runs some point guard as well.

Operating from the perimeter, Warren has a little tougher time. He only shot 30% from the 3-pt line this year (and was 4-25 in the University World Games) and his mechanics are inconsistent. In a two game stretch in February, he shot 1-17 from deep yet still continued to fire away. Thats not necessarily what you want to see from a guy who is physically way more dominant than the rest of his competition.

Ward also relies on his strength a lot to create space as he isn't the most explosive player nor is he the quickest. In the CIS he is allowed to play at his own pace and dictate tempo and has no problem getting to his spots on the court. But when it comes to beating a man with a quick step off the dribble, he struggles. He's a guy who has to get creative with the ball to make plays.

And Ward does have a lot of creativity to his game. To go along with his post game and shooting, Ward also has shown some ability out of the pick and roll and in the transition game. Ward's a very creative passer who can make some impressive dimes, but also makes some boneheaded passes. He averaged 3.8 assists while turning it over 2.9 times. In the University Games he had less than one assist per contest while turning it over 2.1 times a game. As of right now, its safe to call him turnover prone.

There are certainly questions about both his ball handling and decision making and it doesn't help that he's been playing in a league that doesn't match his talent level. He's been able to develop and get away with bad habits, while not really learning how to play a role. On his team, he can basically do whatever he wants. It may come as a surprise, however, that he did not lead his team in scoring.

When you are looking at a below average shooter without any experience playing a supporting role or against top competition, there are a lot of reasons to doubt Ward. Especially considering he's not a great athlete - although he is solid and has above average strength. Ward will have to learn to make a contribution on defense and there will be a big adjustment on that side of the ball as well.

Ward coasted a lot on defense last year, relying on his physical tools to pull down over 6 boards a game. He didn't box out and let his man go on defense plenty of dimes. When he dialed in, Ward was able to be a stopper but the energy and commitment were not there. It is understandable that Ward could've gotten bored at times, but its not exactly what you want to see from a guy who is a long shot to begin with. I'm sure Ward will give better effort in the future and he does have solid defensive tools to work with in the future.

Overall, Warren Ward is certainly a player and could eventually make a D-League team. He certainly had the tools to play at a mid-major plus or high major level if he played college in the states. Not doing so hasn't allowed him to get the necessary coaching or exposure and now he's trying to make that up in a few months span training in Las Vegas. While Ward has a long journey to go - he could even still be getting back some of his athleticism from his ACL injury - Ward is yet another reason Canadian basketball fans have to be proud.

2013 NBA Mock Draft - Post Declaration Deadline/Pre-Lottery

2013-05-07T19:05:00.001-07:00

Orlando Magic - FR Nerlens Noel, F/C, Kentucky
Charlotte Bobcats - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
Cleveland Cavaliers - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
Phoenix Suns - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
New Orleans Hornets - JR Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
Sacramento Kings - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
Detroit Pistons - FR Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA
Washington Wizards - SO Cody Zeller, PF, Indiana
Minnesota Timberwolves - SR CJ McCollom, G, Lehigh
Portland Trailblazers - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland
Philadelphia 76ers - JR Kelly Olynyk, PF, Gonzaga
Oklahoma City Thunder - FR Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
Dallas Mavericks - SO Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
Utah Jazz - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky
Milwaukee Bucks - 1993 Sergey Karasev, SF, International
Boston Celtics - 1994 Dario Saric, F, International
Atlanta Hawks - 1992 Rudy Gobert, F/C, International
Atlanta Hawks - SO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Cleveland Cavaliers - 1993 Livio Jean-Charles, F, International
Chicago Bulls - JR Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
Utah Jazz - 1993 Dennis Schroeder, PG, International
Brooklyn Nets - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke
Indiana Pacers - SR Erick Green, PG, Virginia Tech
New York Knicks - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
Los Angeles Clippers - 1994 Giannis Adetokunbo, SF, International
Minnesota Timberwolves - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina
Denver Nuggets - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
San Antonio Spurs - SR Mike Muscala, F/C, Bucknell
Oklahoma City Thunder - SO BJ Young, G, Arkansas
Phoenix Suns - Glen Rice Jr, SF, D-League
Cleveland Cavaliers - 1994 Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, International
Oklahoma City Thunder - JR Allen Crabbe, SG, California
Cleveland Cavaliers - 1993 Alex Abrines, SG, International
Houston Rockets - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State
Philadelphia 76ers - SR Richard Howell, F/C, North Carolina State
Sacramento Kings - SO Adonis Thomas, SF, Memphis
Washington Wizards - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit
Detroit Pistons - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
Portland Trailblazers - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
Portland Trailblazers - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas
Memphis Grizzlies - SR Erik Murphy, F, Florida
Philadelphia 76ers - SO Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
Milwaukee Bucks - JR Tim Hardaway JR, SG, Michigan
Dallas Mavericks - 1992 Lucas Noguiera, C, International
Portland Trailblazers - FR Ricky Ledo, SG, Providence
Utah Jazz - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
Atlanta Hawks - SR Pierre Jackson, PG, Baylor
Los Angeles Lakers - JR Andre Roberson, F, Colorado
Chicago Bulls - SR Brandon Paul, SG, Illinois
Atlanta Hawks - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
Orlando Magic - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
Minnesota Timberwolves - SR Trevor Mbakwe, PF, Minnesota
Indiana Pacers - JR Deshaun Thomas, F, Ohio State
Washington Wizards - 1991 Bojan Dubljevic, F/C, International
Memphis Grizzlies - SR Solomon Hill, SF, Arizona
Detroit Pistons - 1991 Nemanja Nedovic, PG, International
Phoenix Suns - SR James Ennis, SF, Long Beach State
San Antonio Spurs - SR Robert Covington, SF, Tennessee State
Minnesota Timberwolves - JR Tony Snell, G/F, New Mexico
Memphis Grizzlies - JR Lorenzo Brown, PG, North Carolina State

Scouting Report: Glen Rice Jr

2013-05-06T18:35:00.000-07:00

Glen Rice Jr was unceremoniously dismissed from the Georgia Tech basketball team last season after having multiple prior incidents that resulted in suspensions and benchings. At the time, Rice Jr was on nobodies draft radar as his play on the court had been inconsistent and his character questions off the court were major red flags. Instead of transferring to another school or entering his name in the draft only to go undrafted, Glen Rice Jr decided to take the road less traveled by signing up for the NBA D-League. Up until February, Rice Jr had only played sparingly for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers but got his chance to start due to injuries and never looked back. Rice Jr earned a starting spot for the rest of the season and ended up being a key component for the Vipers en route to winning the D-League title.

The first thing Rice Jr's season shows is that there is no "right" path to take to the draft. Everyone is different and thrives in different places. For Rice Jr, a wake up call at Georgia Tech helped get his head on straight. He was removed from the college lifestyle of drinking and partying and relegated to a life of long bus rides and zero notoriety. No red flags turned up from his one season in the D-League, but there will be some skepticism about whether he can continue down a straight path once he becomes part of the NBA lifestyle.

Rice Jr also benefited from the D-Leagues playing style and pro culture. At Georgia Tech, Rice Jr flashed occasional ability with NBA type plays, but was unselfish and often settled for jumpers. In the D-League, where 24 second shot clocks prepare you for the NBA, Rice Jr was forced to become more aggressive and attack more - which paid off in a big way. Rice Jr was also able to practice unlimited hours unlike in college and hit the weight room hard, as evident from the muscle mass his body added over the season.

When scouting Rice Jr in the D-League, its an easier evaluation to judge his game than watching him in college. The floor is more spaced, the tempo is much faster, and the floor is filled with athletes. After shooting 33% from 3 in his final year at Georgia Tech, Rice Jr ended up shooting 38.5% from a couple feet back in the D-League from NBA range. Rice Jr was always regarded as a good shooter even through his struggles, but his success in the D-League is rock solid evidence that he can shoot lights out in the NBA as well.

Rice Jr was also able to show a post game in the D-League - something you rarely get a glimpse at from wings in college. While there was reason to believe Rice Jr could add a post game based of his attributes in college, actually seeing it materialize is another thing. Its easy for scouts to picture Rice Jr now as a NBA wing because the environment he played in had him doing the same things NBA wings are asked to do.

At the same time the D-League was allowing Glen Rice Jr to show off all his strengths, it also spotlighted his lack of energy at times and poor defense. But just as you can attribute the environment for part of his offensive maturation, you can blame it for some of his defensive shortcomings.

For one, Rice Jr played a lot as a stretch forward where he had to guard post players. Rice Jr got beat up defensively on the block. Rice Jr was a NBA frame, but still has plenty of room to fill out between the shoulders. He's done a great job this year starting that process.

The D-League season is also more of a grind and a lack of defense/effort at times isn't harped on as much as it is in college. While it is nobodies fault but Rice Jr's for being slow to get back on defense, this wasn't something that looked like an issue while he was at Georgia Tech. At Tech, Rice Jr was a good defender who created steals and blocks by using his instincts and athleticism.

Having said all that, I decided that it was best that I also take a hard look at Glen Rice Jr's game film from not just the D-League, but from college as well to level the playing field from him and other prospects.

While watching, it was easy to make sense of his success this year. He showed the ability to shoot from range, off screens, and off the dribble. He also showed that he had a very good feel for the game on the offensive level and could get to the rim when he wanted to. However, Rice Jr was often too passive and unselfish to take advantage of that.

As a shooter, Rice Jr tended to prefer to shoot while moving to the right. This was a bit odd considering that on the Vipers he always looked to go left. Rice Jr displayed that same excellent shooting touch from all over the court as he did this season. There is no questioning his shooting abilities - just like there was no questioning his former all-star father's shooting abilities. He has a quick effortless release and did a nice job at Georgia Tech getting set to shoot coming off screens - both with and without the ball.

At Georgia Tech, Rice Jr had a tendency to make some shots harder than they had to be. He would hesitate on 3-pt shots, often taking an extra dribble when he didn't have too. Rice Jr is a good shooter off the bounce, but he could have been more efficient with more set shots.

His patience and unselfishness on offense also showed good things too. He's an excellent passer for his height/position. He lets the game come to him and will make quick touch passes to teammates if they are open. Rice Jr understands ball movement and isn't focused on his own stats. He got the ball in the post and also did a nice job subsequently cutting to the rim for easy baskets.

His ability to move in space and find the soft spot on defenses is one of the reasons he did such a good job for the Vipers. In college, there is less space but he still managed to show off this strength of his. He was able to both facilitate offense and score around the foul line, showing nice touch on a floater in the process. He also did a nice job working off the ball coming around screens.

Rice Jr also got some pick and roll looks. While he didn't usually attack the defense from this position with the dribble, he did make some nice passing from these sets showing off his court vision. Rice Jr has very good awareness and a high hoops IQ on the offensive end. He also took a lot of 3-pt jumpers in pick and roll sets - again, often moving to his right.

When it comes to his attacking game, this is one area where he showed flashes but not consistently enough. This year in the D-League he made major improvements by attacking defenders who closed out hard on him. In college, he showed the same kind of hesitations on closeouts, but a lot of times he still ended up shooting a jumper. When he did attack, he was very successful thanks to a good first step and wide shoulders. Rice Jr isn't quick with the ball, but he does remain under control in drives and is able to cross up defenders. He also showed off his handles in transition where behind the back moves weren't uncommon.

Another thing that I would classify as "NBA moves" that Rice Jr showed off was his ability to get to the rim with only two bounces. This showed in the D-League as well. He's a great straight line attacker who can mix in a crossover move if necessary. When it comes to finishing, Rice Jr has some dexterity, explosiveness, and strength at the rim. Finishing can become a big strength for him as well.

At this point in time, Rice Jr needs to threat of the jumper to create most of his offense. Although he has a nice driving game, he struggles to get by defenders in isolation/standstill situations. His first step isn't elite and his quickness is below average. Watching him in the D-League, it was very telling watching him discover this for himself against elite athletes.

Defensively, Rice Jr uses his athleticism to get both blocks and steals. He is a great shot blocker coming from the weakside. And while he looked disinterested in help defense in the D-League at times, he showed very promising awareness at Georgia Tech. At Georgia Tech he also did a good job staying disciplined while contesting shots and coming up with steals. He has the frame to handle physical wings and the versatility to guard multiple positions. There is a concern with his foot speed on the perimeter and he certainly won't be a lock down guys, but he's IQ and end to end athleticism can allow him to be a very good team defender (see James Posey). For that to happen though, he will need to change the bad habits he developed this year in the D-League in terms of not hustling and being attentive. At times it looked like he had zero awareness on the defensive end, but I think that is more attributed to his energy/focus than his feel and understanding for the game.

Overall, Glen Rice Jr has used his one year out of college to turn himself into a legitimate NBA prospect and he should definitely be drafted. The question now is "how high?". He has an edge on the rest of the prospects when it comes to adjusting to the NBA game and he also has the shooting ability that will translate right away. After reviewing his college tape, his D-League success doesn't seem like a fluke at all. Scouts will still have to question whether he can keep his head on straight once he gets drafted, but he has the talent of the possible first round draft pick in this draft.

In a Copycat League, Warriors and Rockets May Serve As Models in the 2013 Draft

2013-05-05T18:45:00.003-07:00

The NBA is a copycat league and as the GMs of lottery teams sit at home and watch the playoffs, you can be sure their mind is focused on how their teams can be there next year. A close eye especially could be paid attention to the Warriors and Rockets' models, both of whom made the playoffs after 3+ years of picking in the lottery.

Neither of those teams spent the past few years using their lottery picks on boom or bust players. Instead they looked for experienced college players with high character. Even though they both have had plenty of draft picks, both teams avoided taking a college freshman in the past 4 drafts.

The Rockets, as everyone knows, places a strong emphasis on analytics to build their roster. They've taken a conservative approach in the draft for the most part, choosing to use their lottery picks of the past years on experienced college players. And while guys like Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris haven't exactly lit the world on fire, they were able to compile a solid stable of assets that got them Thomas Robinson at the trade deadline. Their drafting style has been more effective in the second round, where selecting college vets like Chander Parsons, Carl Landry, Steve Novak, and Chase Budinger have paid off big time.

Teams have slowly been coming around to this approach to the point where most teams are investing in the analytics field.

The Warriors are one of those teams, but their emphasis on character has been even more important. Everyone knows that getting good character guys is a good thing, but to what extent? Plenty of teams have avoided those incoming prospects deemed as "cancers", but there seems to be a grey area in between
cancers and leaders. I guess you can say now that instead of simply avoiding low character plays, teams are also actively seeking high character guys.

There are plenty of guys that aren't what you would call cancers, but don't add much to the lockerroom. At the same time, there are plenty of guys that you wouldn't label as leaders that are very positive influences in the clubhouse. The Warriors, as it seems, have found a bunch of those guys and have watched their chemistry flourish in the process.

Golden State may not have one alpha male you would label the leader, but that may be a good thing. They are just a bunch of guys that get along and enjoy the game of basketball. Not only have they proved that you don't need a "leader" to be successful, but you could argue that teams are better off in an environment where everyone has an equal voice. A place where there is no separation. A place where its just a group of good guys who all share an interest of basketball and working hard.

This years NBA Draft has gotten a lot of negative labels for its lack of talent in the first round, particularly in the lottery. But what it does offer in the lottery portion of the draft is a lot of players that fit the makeup of the players I just described in the previous paragraph. Victor Oladipo, CJ McCollom, Cody Zeller, Otto Porter, and Trey Burke all would be great additions to a lockerroom. None of them are what you'd label as a "leader" such as Marcus Smart, but they are all hardworking guys that are easy to get along with by all accounts. They can mesh easily into any clubhouse and add another positive element to it. These guys also all are gyms rats who have shown lots of improvement over the years - there is no questioning where their focus is.

None of these players are what you'd typical get excited about in the lottery. But they actually seem to fit the direction a lot of lottery teams are looking to go lately. If you take a look back at the past couple of drafts, the lottery has been missing the typical "potential" or "bad character" picks. Settling for a solid rotational player has become much more of the norm.

Last year Andre Drummond was the second most talented player in the draft but fell to the ninth pick because of character concerns. Im not sure that would have happened a few years prior. Meanwhile, the ultra-talented Perry Jones III nearly slipped out of the first round - being scooped up by the Thunder with the 28th selection (by the way, the Thunder can do that because they have already established a clubhouse full of players who get along. They have a strong enough environment where they can take in guys with questionable characters issues and give them a chance to succeed. Thats the point where other teams want to get at. But as teams have found out, its necessary to establish that strong base first before gambling).

Guys like the Morris twins, Kendall Marshall, Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich, and Gordan Hayward have all gone lottery in recent years over more talented players who likely would have been picked over them if the draft took place only a few years before. If you go back to 2009, thats when you can see teams still focusing on potential over character in the lottery. Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, Austin Daye, Brandon Jennings, James Johnson, and Demar Derozan all went ahead of UNC's Ty Lawson. Hasheem Thabeet went second in that draft while Tyreke Evans climbed the draft boards as he began to get hyped as the next Dwayne Wade.

There are a lot of factors that go into the change over the past few years. For one, teams may have had a hangover affect after the 2003 draft where they started to believe they could find superstars all through the lottery in any draft. It took about 5 years, but teams no longer seem to be projecting a guy to be the next great thing based on a whim.

Another factor is stability. GMs are getting shorter and shorter leashes, forcing them to make safer picks who are more ready to contribute. They also know have more knowledge fans who are now a harder sell on "potential" than in years prior. Fans get to see all prospects now and aren't wooed by any mythical prospect. You can even say that about actual GMs believe it or not.

The talent in drafts also have a lot to do with it as it tends to shape a lot of picks. While guys like Michael Beasley and OJ Mayo may not go ahead of Kevin Love now, you'd still see them going in the lottery of this years draft. There'd be a lot more skeptics on Beasley if he were coming out of college now, but teams still wouldn't pass up his talent in the lottery.

Lastly, goals of owners may have changed. Making the playoffs every year may have proved to be a better alternative than dwindling away in the lottery each year while swinging for the fences pick after pick. There comes a time when fans lose interest and its best just to settle for putting a competitive team on the court each year. Owners and GMs alike seemed to have discovered that getting a superstar is even harder than expected and often leads to them fighting a losing battle.

Mediocrity has become a goal in a league where half the teams make the playoffs which is why this years draft class will fit in just fine.

Scouting Report: Shane Larkin

2013-05-01T20:39:00.003-07:00

Shane Larkin was originally a high level mid-major recruit being courted by the likes of Depaul, George Mason, Colorado, and Boston College. He was seen as a potential face of a team, a point guard who could take over games with his scoring, but his short stature prevented him from getting looks from the top schools in the country. George Mason was perhaps the top school on his list, as Larkin was a big fan of Jim Larranaga, but Coach L decided to take another guard over him instead of waiting on Larkin to make a decision. That resulted in Larkin ultimately choosing Depaul, but he asked out of his scholarship months before the season started due to an undisclosed medical condition.

It also just so happened that Jim Larranaga had moved on to Miami and had one more scholarship available for a guard in the class of 2011. It was a perfect fit.

The rest you can say, is history.

Shane Larkin made an immediate impact his freshman year, averaging 25.6 minutes a game. His playing time was inconsistent though and with Durand Scott often on the ball, it was hard for Larkin to get into a rhythm. At the start of this past season, his sophomore campaign, things were different as Larkin had been given complete reigns of the offense over the senior incumbent Durand Scott.

Shane Larkin averaged 14.5 points, 4.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 2 steals per contest while shooting 48% from the field and over 40% from the arc. He led Miami to a surprise finish atop the ACC and helped them earn a number 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. Their season ended in a loss in the Sweet 16 to Marquette.

Larkin was able to improve so much from one year to the next because Miami decided to put the ball in his hands and let him make plays. On a team filled with seniors, it was Larkin who served as the catalyst. He was the most competitive, consistent, and complete player all year long. In the ACC championship game, he exploded for 28 points and 7 assists. By the end of the year, it was clear that this was his team and he was making things look easy.

Larkin thrived in an up tempo setting and also did a great job in pick and roll situations. Nearly all possesses for Miami started with Larkin having the ball in a pick and roll situation. Larkin is deadly in those situations for a multitude of reasons.

The first is his burst/acceleration. Larkin is quick changing directions and has a nice crossover, but his acceleration and burst is more impressive. He can come around a screen and turn on the jets with relative ease. Defenders want to play off of him and play him for the drive, but it is virtually impossible because Larkin is also a major threat shooting the ball.

Larkin shot over 40% from behind the arc this season and it had nothing to do with any luck. He is a great shooter who maintains excellent balance whether he is shooting from a standstill position or off the dribble. Larkin is always under such control with the ball in his hands. Defenders have no idea how to guard him as he can pull up from NBA range or drive right by you. He is so smooth and shoots the ball with such ease coming off the dribble. In a way, his use of the pick and roll is reminiscent of Steph Curry - just the way he is always ready to shoot and make anyone pay for slacking off in the pick and roll game.

That isnt to say he is the next Steph Curry - Curry is a once in a generation shooter and has a couple of inches on him - and those two discrepancies can make all the difference. But his feel with the ball in his hands is on Curry's level.

Larkin doesn't settle for jumpers though. He is very balanced when it comes to attacking the pick and roll. Thats why he is so dangerous. It is very hard to predict what he will do. He can go around the edge of the screen and has the burst to turn the corner, but he is just as likely to split the screen with a quick crossover move. Even when he aggressively attacks the rim. Larkin never finds himself out of control.

At only 5'11'' and lacking great explosiveness or strength, its not surprising that Larkin isnt great at getting all the way to the rim and finishing. But he doesn't have to. Larkin has an excellent feel on his floater and gets off his jumpers very quickly as well. As I said, Larkin is always under control and ready to shoot, showing excellent balance at all times. He shot 45% on 2-pt shots outside of layups and most of them came on floaters or short jumpers. In terms of shooting long jumpers after attacking the screener, Larkin doesn't do that often.

Instead, if Larkin is unable to get in position to shoot his floater, he is a perfectly capable passer. Not only is he balanced in shooting and driving, but he also does a good job of picking his spots on when to pass. At the college level, Larkin is more of a score first point guard because the opportunities presented themselves, but in the NBA he can easily adapt to looking for his teammates more.

Larkin is a creative passer with great vision. He never misses finding an open man. Since Larkin struggles to get all the way to the rim and finish, when he sees a help defender coming on a drive, he usually always is able to find the open man with a pass. His drive and kick game is on point and he always does a good job getting the ball to his big men. He finds his big men on lobs and is a creative passer, sometimes leaving his feet to find teammates. While jump passing can be discouraged, Larkin has good knowledge of when it is acceptable and rarely gets himself in tough spots.

In the college game, Larkin was able to dominant offensively with the ball and his hands just by using the pick and roll. In the NBA, teams won't be as scared off him and will be able to cover him tighter and with longer defenders. In college, the threat to shoot or drive often left him without an pressure on the ball and gave him free reign on the court. That won't be as easy in the NBA. He will need to prove he can handle the ball against tough man to man defenders and his strength will definitely need to be improved.

But his ball handling does appear to be at a high level already. He is able to go in both directions (again, there is that balance again) off the dribble without any favoritism for one hand.

Size will obviously be one of his biggest issues, but he does have a very quick release on his jumpshot. And he also can play off the ball from time to time to provide some scoring. Larkin is just as good of a shooter spotting up as he is off the bounce and has the basketball IQ to move without the ball in his hands as well.

Defensively will present the biggest obstacles for Larkin as he is neither tall or strong. Durand Scott drew a lot of the tougher defensive assignments at Miami, but in the NBA it will be impossible to hide. This is where Larkin's competitiveness, quick hands, and IQ will give him a chance to make him an adequate defender. In college, he has already demonstrated that he is a good team defender that understands when to help. Larkin's conditioning should also allow him to give maximum effort on defense. He was one of the best conditioned athletes in college basketball last season and logged over 36 minutes per game.

Heading into the draft this year was a tough decision for Larkin. He loved Miami and didn't enter the season with the NBA draft on his mind. But as chips began to fall, it made a lot of sense for Larkin to enter. Basically the entire core of the Hurricanes are graduating, leaving a lot of unknowns for next year. It was highly unlikely that Miami would share similar success they did this year and a lot of pressure would fall on Larkin's shoulders. Another year would also give scouts a chance to pick a part his game - something that wasn't done a lot this year since he practically came out of nowhere. And there is plenty to pick apart. After all, he is a sub 6 foot guard. And without teammates next year, it could be the perfect storm for scouts to begin questioning whether he is a true point or just a scorer. There is also the belief that he has already improved and done as much as he can in college, mastering the game, and he needs a new challenge.

This is a weak draft class and that also played a decision in him leaving. So did Kevin Ware's freak injury. And Marcus Smart deciding to come back to school and making the point guard pool slimmer may have been the final straw. For Larkin though, that doesn't spell an automatic first round selection. While this draft is weak and only has two sure fire first round picks at point guard, there is plenty of depth at the lead guard spot projected to go in the second round. Larkin is perfectly capable of coming out on top of that pack and earning himself a late first round selection, but he could also fall somewhere in the middle of that group and not hear his name called in the second round. All in all, Larkin's decision to go pro looks to be a smart one.

Exhaustive List of Ranked 2014s at Boo Williams EYBL This Weekend

2013-04-25T09:03:00.002-07:00

The first ranking number is ESPN followed by Scout then Rivals

#1 (#2, #1) C Jahlil Okafor – Mac Irvin Fire
#2 (#1, #3) PG Tyus Jones – Howard Pulley
#3 (#3, #2) PG Emmanuel Mudiay – Texas Pro
#4 (#4, #4) C Trey Lyles – Indy Spiece
#6 (#6, #9) PF Chris McCullough – Team Scan (Syracuse)
#8 (#5, #5) C Cliff Alexander – Mac Irvin Fire
#9 (#13, #6) SG Rashad Vaughn – Wisconsin Playground
#10 (#9, #10) SG Justice Winslow – Houston Hoops
#12 (#14, #21) PG Joel Berry – E1T1 (North Carolina)
#13 (#18, #15) SF Theo Pinson – CP3 All-Stars
#14 (#10, #14) F Justin Jackson – Houston Hoops (North Carolina)
#15 (#17, #12) SF Stanley Johnson – Oakland Soldiers
#16 (#12, #17) PG JaQuan Lyle – Indy Spiece
#17 (#25, #30) SF Jalen Lindsay – Southern Stampede
#19 (#23, #23) SG Devin Booker – Alabama Challenge
#21 (#35, #48) PG Shelton Mitchell – CP3 All-Stars (Wake Forest)
#22 (#42, #49) SG Dion Wiley – Team Takeover
#24 (#11, #22) SG D’Angelo Russell – E1T1
#25 (#27, #26) SG Ahmed Hill – Southern Stampede
#26 (#38, #25) SF Jakeenan Gant – Southern Stampede
#28 (#49, #67) SF Victor Law – Meanstreets
#30 (#22, #37) PG Parker Jackson-Cartwright – Cali Supreme (Arizona)
#34 (#47, #71) LJ Peak – CP3 All-Stars
#35 (#55, #76) Phil Booth – Team Takeover
#36 (#39, #32) SG Grayson Allen – Southern Stampede (Duke)
#38 (#41, #52) Payton Dastrup – Cali Supreme
#40 (#95, #41) Reid Travis – Howard Pulley
#43 (#60, #27) Kelly Oubre – Houston Hoops
#45 (#49, #46) Trevon Bluiett – Indy Spiece
#47 (#68, #47) James Blackmon – Indy Spiece (Indiana)
#49 (#31, #39) Kameron Chatman – ICP Elite
#50 (#76, #145) Keith Pinckney – NY Lightning
#51 (#34, #31) Shaqquan Aaron – Seattle Rotary (Louisville)
#52 (#52, #73) Jae’Sean Tate – All Ohio Red (Ohio State)
#53 (#79, #50) Abdul-Malik Abu – Expressions Elite
#57 (#45, #70) Obi Enechionyia – Team Takeover
#58 (#29, #43) Paul White – Meanstreets

Guys only ranked by Scout/Rivals (ESPN only ranks top 60) Rivals rankings are again the final column with Scout in the middle

UR (#51, #85) Khadeem Lattin – Houston Hoops
UR (#54, #63) Larry Austin – STL Eagles
UR (#58, #57) Jared Terrell – Expressions Elite
UR #62 (#60) JaQuan Newton – Team Final
UR #63 (#117) Therence Mayimba – Team Takeover
UR #66 (#93) Anton Beard – Team Penny (Arkansas)
UR #74 (#68) Zylan Cheatham – Cali Supreme
UR #75 (#83) Jordan Barnett – STL Eagles
UR #81 (#82) Kevin Zabo – CIA Bounce
UR #86 (#62) Vincent Edwards – All Ohio Red
UR #88 (#121) Tre Campbell – Team Takeover
UR #90 (#95) Chris Sandifer – Cali Supreme
UR #100 (UR) CJ Thurman – Southern Stampede

Below are guys only ranked by Rivals (their list ranks top 150)

#64 Lourawls Nairm – Mokan Elite
#69 Tyler Ulis – Meanstreets
#79 Tyquone Greer – Wisconsin Playground
#91 Justin Coleman – Georgia Stars
#92 Donaven Dorsey – ICP Elite
#94 Khadeen Carrington – NY Lightning
#96 Isaiah Wilkins – Georgia Stars
#99 Mikal Bridges – Team Final
#100 Josh Cunningham – Mac Irvin Fire
#101 Boubacar Moungoro – E1T1
#109 – Marial Shayok – CIA Bounce
#111 Edmond Sumner – The Family
#123 Shep Garner – Team Final
#131 Jordan Cornish – Team Louisiana
#135 Dwayne Foreman – Boo Williams
#136 Elijah Cain – NJ Playaz
#138 Lance Tejada – Southern Stampede
#139 Alec Brennan – Expressions Elite
#144 Josh Martin – Seattle Rotary
#147 Jerrelle Deberry – Wisconsin Playground
#148 Silas Melson – ICP Elite

NBA Mock Draft - Post Draft Order Edition

2013-04-22T20:17:00.000-07:00

Round 1

Orlando Magic - FR Nerlens Noel, F/C, Kentucky
Charlotte Bobcats - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
Cleveland Cavaliers - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
Phoenix Suns - JR Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
New Orleans Hornets - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
Sacramento Kings - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
Detroit Pistons - 1993 Sergey Karasev, SF, International
Washington Wizards - SO Cody Zeller, PF, Indiana
Minnesota Timberwolves - FR Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UNLV
Portland Trailblazers - SR CJ McCollom, G, Lehigh
Philadelphia 76ers - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland
Oklahoma City Thunder - FR Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
Dallas Mavericks - FR Isaiah Austin, PF, Baylor
Utah Jazz - SO Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
Milwaukee Bucks - JR Kelly Olynyk, F/C, Gonzaga
Boston Celtics - 1994 Giannis Adetokunbo, SF, International
Atlanta Hawks - SO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Chicago Bulls - JR Allen Crabbe, SG, California
Atlanta Hawks - SR Mason Plumlee, C, Duke
Cleveland Cavaliers - 1992 Rudy Gobert, C, International
Utah Jazz - SR Erick Green, G, Virginia Tech
Brooklyn Nets - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
Indiana Pacers - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky
New York Knicks - 1993 Dennis Schroeder, PG, International
Los Angeles Clippers - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina
Minnesota Timberwolves - 1994 Dario Saric, F, International
Denver Nuggets - SO BJ Young, G, Arkansas
San Antonio Spurs - 1994 Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, International
Oklahoma City Thunder - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
Phoenix Suns - JR Jamaal Franklin, G/F, San Diego State

Round 2

Cleveland Cavaliers - JR Cory Jefferson, PF, Baylor
Oklahoma City Thunder - 1993 Livio Jean-Charles, F, International
Cleveland Cavaliers - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
Houston Rockets - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
Philadelphia 76ers - JR Tim Hardaway, SG, Michigan
Sacramento Kings - SO Adonis Thomas, SF, Memphis
Washington Wizards - 1993 Alex Abrines, SG, International
Detroit Pistons - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas
Portland Trailblazers - SR Richard Howell, F/C, North Carolina State
Portland Trailblazers - 1992 Lucas Nogueira, C, International
Memphis Grizzlies - SR Pierre Jackson, PG, Baylor
Philadelphia 76ers - SR Erik Murphy, F, Florida
Milwaukee Bucks - 1991 Glen Rice, SF, NBDL
Dallas Mavericks - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
Portland Trailblazers - SR Brandon Paul, G, Illinois
Utah Jazz - 1991 Nemanja Nedovic, G, International
Atlanta Hawks - JR Doug McDermott, F, Creighton
Los Angeles Lakers - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
Chicago Bulls - 1992 Ricky Ledo, SG, Providence
Atlanta Hawks - 1992 Bojan Dubljevic, F/C, International
Orlando Magic - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit
Minnesota Timberwolves - SR Trevor Mbakwe, PF, Minnesota
Indiana Pacers - JR Deshaun Thomas, F, Ohio State
Washington Wizards - SR Carrick Felix, SF, Arizona State
Memphis Grizzlies - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
Los Angeles Clippers - SR Solomon Hill, SF, Arizona
Phoenix Suns - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State
San Antonio Spurs - SR Matthew Dellavedova, PG, St. Mary's
Minnesota Timberwolves - 1992 Marko Todorovic, C, International
Memphis Grizzlies - SO Jarnell Stokes, PF, Memphis

Scouting Report: Steven Adams

2013-04-18T19:35:00.003-07:00

Steven Adams came over from New Zealand halfway through the high school basketball season in his senior year, joining Notre Dame Prep School. From the beginning, it was very obvious that Adams' had a long way to go in terms of getting use to the level of competition, and it was even more apparent when he began play last fall at Pitt. Adams, a consensus top 10 recruit, didn't dominate right away - or even, in his one season of college basketball and for long stretches struggled to even make an impact. But as the season progressed, he showed considerable progress as a basketball player. That progress still hasn't put him anywhere close to contributing in the NBA, showing just how raw he was at the beginning of the season.

Adams background is very interesting. The youngest of 18 siblings, all of which are over 6-5 inches tall, basketball has ran in his family. His brothers are all at least 6-10 and 6 of his siblings played basketball for New Zealand. His half sister is an Olympic Gold Medalist in the shot put. When Adams was 13, he lost his father however and took to the streets. So while Adams had a good basketball background, he lacked the teaching needed to develop. It took his brother to get him back on track and set his down the current path he is on. Jamie Dixon discovered him early and quickly sold him on both playing basketball for Pitt and getting an education. Having seen his brothers struggle to make something of their basketball careers, Steven Adams went to Pitt with the goal of also getting an educational. However, with his family needing money, Adams decided it was best to declare for the NBA Draft after his freshman season.

Steven Adams is all about upside. He's only played organized basketball for 6 years and until recently, hasn't had a chance to play against the best competition like his American peers. Standing at at least 6-11 with long arms and a strong base, he has an ideal body for a center. And his ability to move so fluidly at that size is what catches a scouts eye at first glance.

Adams was able to earn minutes at first because of his sheer defensive presence, proving to be a major deterrent inside. He blocked nearly 4 shots per 40 minutes and showed the ability to not just sit by the rim and wait for drivers, but also get block shots away from the rim. Adams mobility is also valuable in defending the pick and roll, where he appears to be very comfortable guarding smaller players in space. Not only does he hedge well, but he also finds himself fairing well against guards when he is switched onto them. Adams isn't afraid to play up on guys and can move laterally to stay in front of them. He is also very good at staying on his feet, partly because he has the ability to block shots without even jumping. He fouled 3 times per 40 minutes, but most were not due to him being over aggressive on going for blocks. He picked up more fouls for shoves in the back and aggressive hedging.

Adams physical strength on defense also projects to be very good heading into the future. Along with the height and the length, Adams has a strong lower body built on genetically thick calve muscles (as seen here). As he learns to stand less upright on defense, he will be very tough to move around in the paint. Combine his strength with his patience on defense and he has all the tools to be an excellent post defender.

Adams will have to add more bulk to his upper body, but it is much easier to develop that then it is the lower body. Plus since defense is played with your feet - and he has the feet of a former soccer player - having a strong lower body is a lot more valuable. But the upper body is important and played a role in his some of his ineffectiveness on offense.

A key going forward for Steven Adams will be rebounding. Based purely off his physical gifts, Adams was a great rebounder this year - pulling down 11.6 boards per every 40 minutes (pace adjusted as always). Adams is also fundamentally sound in this area, always looking to put his body on a man. But moving forward, his sheer size and fundamentals won't put him in the top echelon of rebounding bigs in the NBA. Adams will need to show more aggressiveness and the ability to rebound outside his area moving forward. Right now, he gets a lot of rebounds but leaves a lot more on the table. You'd like to see him develop more of a mean streak and use his strength for. There shouldn't be any times where a player is able to rip the ball from him, but it happens with him far too often.

On occasions where Adams does safely secure a rebound, he shows the presence of mind to look down the court and find an outlet. The good thing about coaching Adams is he hasn't picked up any bad habits and is basically a blank slate for a good big man coach to mold. Thats why finding the right situation in the NBA will be pivotal for him. His first few years he may be overwhelmed by the speed and physicality of the game, but it will be important for him not to be discouraged and realize he has a lot of room to grow. During the interview process, talent evaluators will definitely look at his mental makeup closely and see if he has what it takes to deal with such struggles.

He has shown the ability and eagerness to want to learn and improve so far. Interviews like this one by Draftexpress, make you realize that he's still very much a kid and one that hasn't grown up around this atmosphere. Given that he didn't have a father figure or any guidance during his teenage years, there are additional reasons to question his mental aspect and will to be great. Kiwis generally are known to be laid back people which is not the personality you want to see from a defensive center. He'll likely have to be coddled during his early years in the league, and it will be important for his team to understand that and give him the attention he needs to thrive. If not, there is no sense in drafting him.

Offensively, Adams has a long way to go but shows some interesting things. Against Notre Dame in February, he had a steals and took it the length of the court through traffic and finished with a dunk over a defender. All while looking extremely natural at doing so. The less Adams thinks out there on the court and just does what comes naturally to him, the better he seems to do. The problem is he's still learning the game and trying to understand things, so he does think a little bit too much out there. But that will change once he gets more comfortable and he'll start relying on his instincts more - which seem pretty good.

Right now, his main source of offense is on the glass. Here Adams has a nose for the ball and does a good job coming crashing in for boards. He displays great touch and body control, allowing him to get many tip-ins near the rim.

Like his defense, Adams potential on this end of the court is intriguing because he can be good in both the pick and roll and in the post. Starting with the pick and roll, Adams uses his body well to set wide/effective screens. He rolls off these screens so fluidly and keeps his hands up, always looking for the pass. Adams seems to have a good natural feel how to get open off these plays and knows when to break off his route to the rim and when not to. At times, Adams will come off the roll and stop at the foul line for a ten foot jumper. His body control is so ridiculously good for his size that he makes this look way more easy than it is.

At other times, Adams will roll all the way to the basket and look to catch the ball on the run. He is able to catch the ball in motion using soft hands and avoids picking up charges. He does a good job of moving, catching, and scoring the ball all in one fluid motion.

The third option Adams uses in the P&R game is to get a smaller man on his back and look to establish easy post position. Adams has taken a liking to play with his back to the basket and has look comfortable doing so, which is a great sign moving forward.

Basically starting from scratch in basketball moves at Pitt, he slowly been molded into a post player - adding more moves to his arsenal as the season progressed. At first, Adams was extremely passive when catching the ball in the post. His first instinct was to pass. And that was if he was even able to handle the ball. While Adams originally does a good job establishing position, he caused many turnovers by failing to keep his defender on the back and allowing him to be more aggressive in going for the post entry pass. In time, Adams is slowly learning he has to go and get the ball - not wait for it to come to him.

It also hurts him that he appears a little shy to use his strength to bully guys at times. Its not to say he plays soft - it just seems like he feels it would be too easy to dominate if he fully took advantage of his physical tools. Instead, Adams has shown some emerging skill level in the process. That includes good patience in the post, passing skils, soft touch, quick post moves to either side, a step through move, and enough handles to take the necessary dribbles needed to complete a move. He also displays a good use of pump fakes.

When Adams does catch the ball in the post, he weighs his options, gives teammates time to make cuts to the rim, and if nothing comes open he then chooses to go to work himself.

Besides pick and rolls and post ups, Adams also does a good job moving in space and finding ways to get open. He is a very good cutter for someone his size, a skill that goes along with his ability to crash the offensive glass and score off rolling to the basket after setting a screen. Body control is one of his biggest assets.

Shooting wise, Adams only shot 44% from the foul line, but it seems to be a mental thing 100% of the way. In practice, he is said to be a very good foul shooter. And his mechanics look good - in fact, he almost shoots the ball like a guard with his elbow perfectly tucked in. Unlike most big guys, there seems to be a level of skill to his shot instead of just a flat footed attempted at the rim. He does a really good job getting squared up, as shown on his ability to shoot stopping on the dime while coming off setting a screen. His great mechanics likely go back to the fact that he had no bad habits when he started playing organized basketball.

There are times where Adams misses the rim badly though. He can hit shots all the way out to 15 feet, but does so with a lot of inconsistency. Again, it seems more of a mental things. The guy can shoot as long as he relies on his instincts and doesn't put too much thought into it. Thats a big part of his maturation level - as he learns the game, that will allow him to trust his instincts more.

As I said earlier, getting stronger in the upperbody may be more important to him on the offensive end and that is because he tries to muscle up too many shots right now. And he's usually unsuccessful of even getting the ball up through the rim via contact.

Even though Adams is known as a below average offensive player right now, he has a promising combination of physical tools, lack of bad habits, and willingness to learn the center position to be success. Adams can shoot and has some skill, but you never saw him trying to dribble the ball around or stretch his range out to the 3-pt line. Seeing a player eager to learn how to play in the post is refreshing.

Moving forward, there is no doubting Adams' potential and it is impossible not to see what he could bring to the table down the line. But teams are going to need to do their homework on him and understand what it will take to get him to reach his potential. In terms of sheer potential, Adams has as much of it as anyone in this draft and thats not an exaggeration. And if a team knows what they are doing with him, then I don't think it is out of the question to take him in the lottery or even closer towards the top 5. Patience, some coddling, and a pressure free environment will be key - but the dividends could really pay off in the end. Adams is not for everyone, but he could end up making every team that passes him up in the draft look silly.

Marcus Smart to Return to Stillwater

2013-04-16T20:30:00.000-07:00

In a weak draft like the one expected this season, the decision to take the easy money has been, well, easy for some guys. Basically every fringe first rounder has put their name into the draft so far, including all of the lottery guys.

That is, except for Marcus Smart.

Earlier tonight, Chad Ford reported that Smart would be holding a press conference tomorrow during lunch time in the student union area. Lots of Oklahoma State students would be present, so there quickly became some hope for fans that maybe he would defy logic and come back next season. Certainly he wouldn't pull a LeBron James and hold a press conference in front of his fellow students, only to end it by ripping their hearts out...right?

It wasn't long after that thought that Adrian Wojnarowski, the king of sources, had the official scoop that Smart indeed was going to opt for a second year at Stillwater. And when Wojnarowski reports it, it might as well be fact.

Smart's decision has already been subjected to much criticism and he's likely to hear more throughout next season. The general thinking is - weak draft, guaranteed top 5 pick, potentially a historically strong draft next season - he would be stupid to risk it all for another year in college.

But ultimately it is Smart's decision to be made and as long as he made an informed decision, I have no problem with it. This decision is a little look into just how different Smart is. He's special. Smart isn't a guy who is going to worry about his draft stock. He's confident in his abilities. What he wants to do is win. And he's done that at every level up until college and I imagine after the loss against Oregon he felt he had some unfinished business to take care of.

Maybe it just wasn't natural for Smart to spend a season with a team and leave after not accomplishing anything. He has multiple HS championships, AAU banners, and even lead U18 USA Team to a victory in the FIBA Americas last summer. Returning to school, likely as the Big 12 favorites, Smart will have one thing in mind and it sure won't be how is draft stock is looking. He'll be looking to win a NCAA title.

This decision also put Smart in a position where he would leave his best friend, longtime teammate, and practically brother - Phil Forte behind. Smart grew up with his family and the thought of abandoning Forte after one year may have not sat well with him. Knowing the kind of player and point guard Smart is, he may not feel his job is done as a leader until he elevates both of them to professional prospects.

Smart also sat in on the USBWA awards dinner on Monday and listened to Tom Izzo talk about how much Trey Burke improved between his freshman and sophomore years. ESPN's Fran Fraschilla said he was "all ears".

Whether or not Smart's draft stock remains as a top 5 pick next year is certainly debatable. He has holes in his game that could be exposed farther the same way Sullinger, McAdoo, Willie Warren, Zeller, and others fell victim to in recent years. But there is more to a player's life than where he gets picked. All we know about player's are their basketball lives, but there are other factors. And as far as I'm concerned, experiences are greater than 3-5 pick difference in the NBA Draft. College life only comes around once.

And if Smart ends up a good NBA player - which as a player, there should be no other thought than that - then a couple years from now, nobody will even talk about this decision. And if he is terrible and flames out of the league in a few years, at least he will have some more memories in college to fall back on.

In the end, Smart is a competitor and its hard to ask him to be competitive, but at the same time consider the fact of failing by coming back a season. If Smart did that, Marcus Smart wouldn't be Marcus Smart. Part of what makes Smart great is his competitiveness, confidence, and intangibles. You can't just ask him to change his way of thinking. It why he is a great athlete and we all are just commenting on his decision - different mind sets.

Scouting Report: Marcus Smart

2013-04-15T20:20:00.000-07:00

Coming out of high school, Marcus Smart was considered among the top players in his class (#10 on both ESPN and Rivals, #13 on Rivals) and lead his team to a 115-6 record in 3 years of varsity ball, including 2 state championship titles in which he stepped up big when it counted the most. He did this with Oklahoma State teammate and best friend Phil Forte by his side for every game.

On the AAU side of things, Smart proved to be a winner as well and carried his AAU team to the Adidas Super 64 (the premier event on the Adidas summer circuit) title where he defeated Shabazz Muhammad behind a 29 point, 18 rebound performance.

For most of the time, Smart was the primary ball handler on his teams but was still considered as a shooting guard prospect by most recruiting analysts when he signed at OSU. This summer however, Smart started all 5 games alongside future UNC PG Nate Britt at the U18 FIBA Americas and ended up leading the team in assists. It was during this time that his coach during the tournament, Billy Donavan RAVED about his leadership ability and toughness.

Heading to Oklahoma State, Marcus Smart stepped in at point guard immediately. He didn't just find himself there by default - he became the leader of the team from day one and completely changed the culture of the team. This coming from a freshman - and a very young freshman at that - one that was only 18 until this March.

Oklahoma State went from a 15-18 team in 2011-12 to the second best team in the Big 12 with Smart, earning them a 5th seed in a NCAA Tournament. In the tournament, Smart and the Cowboys were ousted in the first round by Oregon and that is the final memory in Smart's college career.

Against Oregon, Smart was unable to handle defensive pressure very well. He committed quite a few turnovers, but more importantly, he was forced to work off the basketball more. Smart couldn't handle the pressure and control the tempo of the game, but still padded the statsheet by helping out in other areas.

While Smart has all the intangibles to be a point guard, there are some concerns that need to be addressed with ball handling and quickness off the dribble. Smart is only an average ball handler at point guard and it showed this year with quite a few turnovers. Smart gets by with his dribbling by using his size to shield the ball and create space, but that won't be as easy at the next level. His left hand needs work and he needs to tighten the dribble up a lot.

Smart isn't the type of point guard that can iso a fellow point guard and get all the way to the rim with a quick move. Instead, he uses a combination of power and a change of speeds - both which he knows how to use very well. But even with that, there are times where you can minimize Smart's effect at the top of they key with the ball in his hands.

We saw it this season at Oklahoma State. There were times, the Oregon game being one, where Smart had to give the ball up once he crossed halfcourt and then look to get the ball back coming around a down screen.

With Smart struggling to get to the rim at times, he has to settle for far too many off balanced jumpers - a shot that he hasn't been able to hit efficiently yet. He has a reputation as a bad shooter and that is fair given that he shot only 29% from 3 this season. However, his poor numbers also have a lot to do with bad shots and highly contested ones as well. He also took plenty of threes from well beyond the arc and was able to connect at a decent rate. Some of these were by necessity, others were because he was in need of finding a way to generate offense.

Still, he shot 35% on 2-pt jumpers is OK and given the degree of difficulty of most of these shots, that number is even better than it looks. There are some tweeks Smart can do to improve his shot, but for the most part, Smart's shot is fine. His mechanics are broke and he doesn't have poor touch which seems to be his reputation. Also, Smart shot 78% at the foul line on 6.5 attempts per game. So his shooting shouldn't be the biggest concern.

Once again, the biggest concern will be his ability to get to the lane and create. If he can't do that, then yes, shooting will become heavily relied upon to the point where he has to be able to knock down 3-pters at a good clip.

As a creator, Smart is able to see the entire court and does a good job finding open teammates. He does a good job when he gets in the lane to not just look for kickouts, but also to find teammates underneath the basket for easy shots. He is able to get into the lane, stop around the foul line and have the threat of both a pullup jumper or a pass over big men. He attacks the pick and roll aggressively by splitting the defenders, although with handles it does result in the occasional turnover. In the lane, Smart is able to remain under control, using his body to create space and allow him time to move at his own pace. He has the ability to navigate through the paint with his dribble, using his size and hesitations to his advantage moreso than any advanced handling or speed advantages.

Smart is also a fantastic rebounder for a guard - or forward for that matter - and is able to start a lot of breaks that way. While he isn't fast in transition, Smart does a good job keeping his head up and finding teammates. He's aggressive pushing the ball and relies on his passing to do most of the work.

Smart also has shown signs of a post game and this could be a big development for him moving forward. Being able to take advantage of that strength in the post could give him a go-to move to make up for his lack of quickness. Smart is perfectly capable of developing a good turnaround jumper, and already has a natural fade and good elevation on his jumpshots. He already knows how to get low post position and was able to get easy layups from taking advantage of his size on multiple occasions this year.

Smart also isn't the most explosive guy at the rim and a lot of that has to do with the fact that he is primarily a two feet jumper. As a guy with a bigger body, he takes some time to gather himself before going up to the rim. Smart is able to finish through contact very well and certainly can throw down some powerful dunks. Smart has developed a nice jumpstop which is a useful tool for him as a less explosive guy. He would do himself an even better service to continue to work to develop a reliable floater off of one foot. Right now he has more of a fall away floater that takes him away from the basket and towards the baseline. Adding a better floater to his arsenal will allow him to score in the paint without getting all the way to the rim.

Overall with Smart, you have a guy with all the intangibles needed from a point guard and also a guy who is a very good passer. He has the size that can make him special at the position and is used to playing with the ball in his hands. He knows how to score the ball as well and has always been the main ball handler on the team. But there are also concerns with his quickness and ball handling that may make it best for him to play next to another ball handler to take pressure off of him, at least during his first couple of seasons in the NBA. Smart has shown this year that he can work off the ball just as well by coming off screens, posting up, hitting the offensive glass, going backdoor, and even setting screens for others. Smart keeps his head thinking of how to make an impact at all times. While you'd much rather be able to play him at point guard, if he has to play some shooting guard at the next level, he can be successful there as well.

Once you get into the defensive size of things, there is plenty of more stuff to like about Smart. Smart was one of the best defenders in college basketball, making a huge impact as a defender from the point guard spot. He racked up plenty of steals, but his forte at point guard wasn't just at creating turnovers.

Smart managed to get involved on every play on the defensive end, something that you may see from a great defensive center, but not a point guard. With his tremendous instincts, size, strength, and BBIQ he was able to play plenty of helpside defense while still keeping his man in check. He was active and attentive at all times on defense, keeping constant tabs on both the ball and his man.

Smart was also an extremely versatile defender and was able to switch on basically all screens. Even when he was matched up against big men, Smart more than held his own in the strength department. Smart has some huge hands as well, and the force and easiness in which he swipes the ball from defenders hands is impressive. Its rare to see a guy be able to pluck point guards as cleanly and easily as he makes it look.

There is no questioning his team defense, as it is as good at it gets at the college level. Moving on, there will be questions about how well he can keep some of the quicker NBA point guards in front of him. But then again, there are few in the NBA who even have a chance of staying in front of the top tier guys. Also, his pick and roll defense may need some changes as he will have to fight through screens instead of switching all the time. Knowing Marcus Smart, this shouldn't be a problem at all. His pick and roll defense should actually be great given his versatility to switch at times and the strength he has to fight through screens.

As it stands now, Smart looks like a near lock for a top 5 pick barring any bad workouts. His agent will most likely play it safe and refuse any one on one workouts, which will eliminate the possibility of him struggling in that setting. Smart should thrive in the interviews and athletic testing/workouts and will only raise his stock that way. Smart could also earn some more believers with those infamous empty gym shooting sessions where he can show he can make shots when being guarded by a chair. An outside shot at #1 overall pick isn't out of the question at this point depending on who gets the top pick.

Portsmouth Invitational Team Previews - Norfolk Sports Club

2013-04-10T17:07:00.001-07:00

Maurice Kemp - Kemp is a athletic wing with legit size at 6'8. He already takes advantage of his physical tools on the defensive end, showing lock down abilities. Kemp plays with good effort on both sides of the ball. He can cover both forward positions at the college level, although his slight frame will force him out on the perimeter full time in the NBA. While his calling card is defense, Kemp scored over 20 points per game in each of his last 9 career games. Kemp isn't much of a shooter, but does a good job attacking the rim. He plays under control and picks his spots carefully. He doesn't have elite explosiveness or any advanced ball handling moves, but he is fundamentally sound on his drives. He doesn't overcomplicate things. Kemp is every bit the team player and could eventually help at NBA team after improving in the D-League.

DJ Cooper - Cooper may have been the best passer in college basketball this season, putting his craftiness on complete display. He is able to deliver passes in a multitude of ways and does a good job seeing the court and keeping his head up at all times. Cooper looks to push the ball whenever possible and is able to maintain complete control of the tempo. In the halfcourt, Cooper can struggle at times to get by his man as he is only an average athlete and he will settle for NBA 3s past his range too much. At 5-11, Cooper doesn't have the athleticism or shooting ability to overcome his shortcomings which will most likely keep him from being drafted.

Scott Wood - There isn't a whole lot to explain about Scott Wood's game. He played on a loaded NC State team and was their 3-pt specialist. With so many athletes surrounding him, Wood wasn't asked to do anything but shoot - something he has always does very well. He is an elite shooter with effortless mechanics and plenty of range to adjust to the NBA line. However, Wood will need to find other ways to contribute to teams if he wants to separate himself from other shooters that have came and went.

Vander Joaquim - Athletic big man who came up through the program "Basketball Without Borders" and has experience playing with the Angola National Team. He is an opportunistic finisher at the rim with quick leaping abilities. Joaquim can also hit the outside jumper and has done so more and more over his career, to a point where he efficiency saw a hit this season due to his tendency to play on the perimeter. Joaquim is better off playing inside, working on his post game, and taking advantage of his athleticism in the paint. He still needs a lot of work to ever make the NBA, but he's the kind of player the Portsmouth is made for.

Jack Cooley - Cooley is one of the best rebounders in the country, making good use of his girth and toughness on the inside. Cooley is best described as a lunch pail guy who quietly does the dirty work without complaining, but he attempted to take on more of a leadership role this season. His defense has improved and he's looked lighter on his feet, but this is still an area of concern. Cooley finished the season with a rough stretch of games, often disappearing for long stretches.

Will Clyburn - On a team that was centered around 3-pt shooters, Clyburn was the guy who did everything else to help Iowa State win. He is a solid defender with versatility to cover multiple positions, good rebounder, and an explosive leaper capable of finishing strong at the rim. Clyburn is also stronger than he looks and is good at generating contact at the rim. He's a solid ball handler as well - capable of getting all the way to the cup. He struggled with his mid-range game this year - not converting many jump shots while looking tentative in no-mans land as well.

Momo Jones - Jones may be best remember for his tournament against Duke in the NCAA Tournament while playing with Arizona. Jones ended up transferring to be with an ill family member, but his scoring never slowed down. He was 3rd in the NCAA in scoring this year playing in the up and down style of the Iona Gaels. While Jones is a great scorer, he doesn't show much hope as a point guard and at a generously listed 6-0, he is a long shot to even get a sniff at the NBA.

DJ Richardson - Richardson is a 6-3 shooting guard who contributed four years at Illinois due to his solid role playing abilities. He is a great shooter, strong defender, and capable playmaker for his teammates off the dribble. However, Richardson doesn't do anything great and never really made a name for himself in the Big Ten. He has a chance to step up his play here at the PIT, but he hasn't "wowed" scouts during his 4 year stint at Illinois. Solid player, but not NBA worthy.

Most likely to be drafted?

This is a rather weak roster that I wouldn't be surprised to have 0 NBA draft picks, but Jack Cooley will get late second round looks due to his rebounding ability.

Summer League Invites?

DJ Cooper can run an offense and get the ball to his teammates hands in good positions, which is valuable in a camp where teams want to see what their draft picks can do. Maurice Kemp and Will Clyburn may also get a chance to show what they can do depending on what they show in the next few days at the PIT.

Overseas Bound?

The rest of this roster will need to start out at a smaller level European team, but Scott Wood has the shooting ability to work his way up through the ranks. DJ Richardson can be a solid pro as well.

2013 NBA Mock Draft - Post NCAA Tournament Edition (w/ Commentary)

2013-04-10T16:47:00.003-07:00

1. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Nerlens Noel, F/C, Kentucky

I'm not a doctor nor do I play one on TV, so I cant give an opinion on how alarming his ACL injury should be going forward. Team doctors will have the luxury of checking him out and drawing their own conclusions. If they are worried, then maybe Charlotte would look at Ben McLemore here. If not though, Noel should be the pick. While Im not a doctor, I do feel qualified enough to say Noel has the highest upside and talent in this draft and produced admirably when he was healthy. Injuries withstanding, he should be the #1 pick in this draft.

2. Orlando Magic - FR Marcus Smart, G, Oklahoma State

This pick could get interesting with Trey Burke's performance in the NCAA Tournament. I was always a Burke believer, but after his tourney run, a pick in the top 5 doesn't sound like a stretch anymore. And as for Smart, there are legitimate concerns about his ability to make handle pressure and make plays consistently with the ball in his hands. While his work ethic, defense, and body make him a seemingly safe pick, you may not be getting the natural point guard you want. With Burke on the other hand, you know you will be getting a guy who can run the point effectively.

3. Phoenix Suns - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

The Suns have been the floor landing spot for every mock I've done the past couple of months and it does seem like a perfect match. Phoenix desperately needs help at shooting guard, particularly from behind the arc. McLemore needs to go somewhere without a lot of pressure to be a star, and Phoenix is generally laid back. McLemore is still coming into his own in terms of both as a basketball player and a young man, having been a late bloomer in high school, and needs to get use to all the expectations around him. Coming in, McLemore can make an impact immediately as a shooter and grow into a bigger role as he gets more comfortable.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

Cleveland's front office has used steals as a big indicator for feature success in the draft recently and Porter averaged 1.8 per game this season. Porter's lateral quickness is rather weak, but his excellent anticipation skills (not just playing passing lanes but denying drives before they can even start) and 7ft+ wingspan make him a valuable team defender moving forward. Porter is also a good passer on offense and can be a distributor for the Cavs when they need Irving to step up more as a score. Overall, Porter will be a solid fit for any team and has a very low bust rate.

5. Detroit Pistons - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

This pick comes down to Burke and Oladipo and just like award voting this year, I see Burke getting the edge. Burke to the Pistons would bring a lot of excitement to the local fan base, but more importantly, it would fill the role of point guard for years to come. Unlike Brandon Knight, Burke is already ready to lead an offense and could take over the starting job from Day 1. With Drummond and Monroe inside, being able to lock up another position - especially at point - will be big for the franchise moving forward.

6. New Orleans Hornets - JR Victor Oladipo, G/F, Indiana

New Orleans actually had a middle of the pack offense this year, but one of the worst defensive teams. Pairing Oladipo with Anthony Davis could quickly turn that around and push New Orleans into respectability. Hopefully they'll start to push the ball more as well to take advantage of Oladipo's physical gifts.

The Hornets could also look at Shabazz Muhammad here. If they were willing to take Rivers last season, then another selfish, high usage, pampered high school player shouldn't bring up red flags to them either.

7. Sacramento Kings - FR Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA

Half of the game of basketball is defense. Of the 8 worst teams in defensive efficiency this season, the Kings are the 7th of the group the come up already in this mock draft. Yes, 8 of the 9 worst defensive teams in the league also happen to be the worst teams overall as well. So it should make sense to the Kings that in order to get out of the lottery every year, they may need to start making some picks that could make an impact on that end. Because of this reason, Cody Zeller makes a lot of sense here. But by the same token, the Kings also have their choice of offensively gifted guys like Alex Len, Isaiah Austin, Shabazz Muhammad, and Anthony Bennett. Thats why - knowing them - I have them going with one of the latter choices.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder - 1992 Rudy Gobert, F/C, Cholet

The Thunder have more room to take a risk than most. Sam Presti has no reason to be in fear of losing his job, their roster doesn't have any extreme pressing needs, and they have had a good track record of developing talent. Therefore, I would put Presti and the Thunder as a prime candidate to take a guy like Steven Adams, Giannis Adetokunbo, Isaiah Austin, or Rudy Gobert. Right now, Gobert seems to be the most highly ranked, but the order could easily reverse in the coming months.

9. Washington Wizards - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV

For the longest time the Wizards have been featured in the top 5 of mock drafts, but after a winning streak spearheaded by John Wall, they now find themselves just barely inside the top 10. John Wall has proven to be worth being built around during this stretch and the Wizards should look for players that can compliment him. A skilled power forward like Bennett who can stretch the floor and get down up and down in transition would be welcomed. Wizards played surprisingly effective defense this year, getting a offensive weapon down low would be great.

10. Minnesota Timberwolves - SR CJ McCollom, G, Lehigh

CJ McCollom picked a good year to be a senior. Even with an injury, he is kind of the defacto scoring guard pick for a team picking in this range. Besides him, you're mostly likely looking at a big gamble with Archie Goodwin. A gamble I may not be opposed to, but I don't think any team is comfortable picking him this high at this point. Maybe workouts and interviews will give a general manager enough confidence to roll with Goodwin in the lottery - the place where his talent level suggests he gets picked.

11. Philadelphia 76ers - SO Cody Zeller, PF, Indiana

At this point in the draft, Zeller should be considered a steal. I can understand if you don't want to take Zeller in the top portion of the lottery because of his upside, but you can't pass up him here. Zeller will do much better playing in the NBA with a more spread floor and his lateral abilities and IQ on defense will make him a solid defender right away. Put him in a better role than he was put in at Indiana and he will look like a much better player.

12. Portland Trailblazers - FR Mitch McGary, F/C, Michigan

In general, I don't think the tournament ultimately helped many guys. It will all balance out in the end and a lot of things that were seen are things that GMs would discover later on once they dissected the regular season tape more. One thing they wouldn't see on the tape is anything to suggest the breakout "March" McGary had during the tournament. He is one guy who used the tournament to showcase skills that folks just didn't think he had. McGary has the size to play both positions inside, is light on his feet, plays very hard, has a NBA body, and showed off a surprising ability to hit mid-range jumpers. He looks like a glorified Nick Collison - or the Nick Collison who played on the Thunder around 2007 (a very valuable player).

13. Dallas Mavericks - SO Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse

The Mavericks could use help everywhere, but there seems to be a consensus among fans that they want a point guard. Do you get a point guard in Michael Carter-Williams? Personally, I don't think so and Im not going to rehash all the reasons why again and again. No matter what I think, there is surely a team out there that will find the idea of a 6'7 point guard intriguing enough to take in the lottery. Maybe it will be the owner who also wants to bring in Brittany Griner for a summer league spot.

14. Phoenix Suns - SR Mason Plumlee, C, Duke

I've been saying all year that Plumlee is overrated and ranked much farther ahead of Dieng, Withey, and other centers for no reason. With Louisville winning the championship, Dieng seems to be finally getting attention and that train of thought may be finally getting ready to chance. If I had my way, Plumlee wouldn't be close to the lottery. I just don't see any intrigue at all. Maybe the Suns gamble and go with a Steven Adams here since this is their second draft pick in the lottery. For now, I'll put Plumlee in this spot but simply as a placeholder. The time is coming where he will be relegated to where he should be drafted.

15. Milwaukee Bucks - FR Glenn Robinson III, sF, Michigan

Milwaukee gets up and down the court, creating a lot of possessions, but doesn't score the ball efficiently. Glenn Robinson III isn't a game changer, but he will be able to take advantage of opportunities in transition created by Brandon Jennings. Robinson III is an explosive athlete that runs the court well and can also hit jumpers from all over the court with ease when left open. He wont create much off the dribble for himself beyond a simple pump fake, but that is what a slashing point guard like Brandon Jennings is for.

16. Boston Celtics - 1994 Giannis Adetokunbo, SF, Filathlitikos

Ainge is no stranger to taking risks nor is he afraid of losing his job. He recently went out to scout the "6'10 point guard", who will most likely end up playing the small forward role in the NBA. Adetokunbo has point forward skills, but the most intriguing part of him is his physical gifts. He glides around the court in similar fashion to Kevin Durant and possessing oven mitts for hands. He will likely spend a lot of time in the D-League as he plays on a low level team in Europe, but he could be better than just about anyone in this draft if he turns out.

17. Utah Jazz - FR Isaiah Austin, PF, Baylor

The Jazz could be in a tough spot if things shape up this way. There is no point guard worth taking this high and there are also a lack of 3-pt bombers at the SG position in this spot either. There are a dearth of big men, but thats not necessarily what a team with Al Jefferson, Enes Kanter, and Derrick Favors needs. Maybe they trade the pick, but ultimately I think its more likely we see a big man go in this spot than one of the remaining guards on the board. Isaiah Austin is a highly intriguing player, one who could be one of the best scorers to come out of this class. He makes plays off the dribble like a guard to set up jump shots, plays smarts, and reminds some scouts a bit of Dirk. He is well worth the risk at this spot.

18. Atlanta Hawks - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland

The Hawks have constantly looked for a center to allow Al Horford to play power forward full time. Danny Ferry chose to zero in on some sharp shooters last offseason and now it is time to find a true post threat so tjhey can establish an inside-out attack. Ferry comes from the Spurs organization so finding a true offensive threat in the post is a priority. He also was in charge of the Cavs when they had Zydrunas Ilgauskas - who happens to be the player Alex Len is most often compared to. While Len's offensive skills are unquestioned, teams will worry about the mental and physical challenges the NBA game will present to him.

19. Chicago Bulls - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky

The Bulls needs a shooting guard and while they would prefer a guy who can shoot, Goodwin has too much upside and talent to pass over for someone like Jamaal Franklin at this point. Goodwin struggled along with the rest of the UK freshman, but he was one of the few fighting until the very last game. Goodwin showed promising fearlessness and aggressive and while it didn't translate efficiently this season, it is a good sign for his potential moving forward. He has one of the quickest first steps in the draft and combines that with a good frame and explosiveness at the rim. Give him time and he could become a great isolation threat in the league.

20. Atlanta Hawks - SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia

Caldwell-Pope's decision still seems to be up in the air as he waits for more feedback from NBA teams. He grinded away on a bad team at Georgia and things aren't looking much better for the Bulldogs a year from now. It makes sense for Caldwell-Pope to leave now even though he still has some growing up to do and has much to learn as a team player. He makes a lot of silly mistakes and has questionable awareness on defense, but his ability to score the ball makes him intriguing. He combines a nice first step with a silky smooth jumper, and is able to hit dribble pull-ups with ease. He may be the most talented, well-rounded (scoring wise) shooting guard this side of the lottery.

21. Utah Jazz - SR Erick Green, G, Virginia Tech

We are still waiting to hear whether or not Myck Kabongo, Shane Larkin, and Ray McCallum decide to enter the draft. As you can see from this mock draft, after the top 3 PGs are off the board there is a hole available for a point guard to grab with some good workouts. Erick Green could sneak up on some people. He's 6'3 with long arms, is an excellent scorer, strong shooter off the dribble, pushes the ball in transition, plays hard, and is a high character guy who will impress during interviews. He has always been a scorer in college due to playing on a weak team, but he is unselfish and smart enough to adjust to being a full time point guard.

22. Brookyln Nets - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville

Nets biggest need is the center spot and thats not a bad need to have at this position. Steven Adams, Jeff Withey, and Kelly Olynyk are all still left on the board. Dieng is a guy who could be the best defensive anchor of the bunch - including Withey who led the NCAA in shot blocking - and also has some useful offensive skills. He has good touch from the foul line extended area and is also a good passer from the same area. Dieng is set to graduate early and has a very interesting background that is worth checking out.

23. Indiana Pacers - JR Kelly Olynyk, F/C, Gonzaga

Olynyk has slipped far enough in this mock and the Pacers would be happy to have him as a possible replacement for David West. Olynyk is an awesome offensive player who will thrive in the pick and roll game. He will need to find the right team that can utilize him in such a role - and use him enough to make it worth having him on the court on the defensive end as well. He was one of the best stories of this college hoops season, coming off a redshirt season in which he used his time to really improve his post game.

24. New York Knicks - FR Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh

When it comes to guarding a chair, Steven Adams may look better than any prospect doing so. It was odd seeing Adams come out, given his apparent desire to attend school in the USA and get an education on top of his basketball dreams. Adams was extremely raw at the beginning of the year, but got more and more comfortable for Pitt as the season went on. Still by the end of the season, he still had a lot of work to do to even become a good college player. But there is no doubt his upside is there. He has great physical tools and the biggest question with him will be his tentativeness. If he doesn't want to end up as a Hasheem Thabeet type bust, then he will need to make sure he doesn't play with the same kind of motor as him. He has to start getting used to throwing his weight around consistently.

25. Los Angeles Clippers - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas

Withey's block shot to foul ratio really doesn't get talked about near enough. What he did on the defensive end of the court in college was truly remarkable. Using his volleyball background as a guide, Withey mastered the art of blocking shots cleaning and most importantly - keeping them inbounds. He was Kansas's most important player for defensive reasons alone, but he also was able to score on offensive with a unblockable hook shot. Withey, for the second straight year, played a really good tournament even as the rest of his team struggled.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves - 1993 Sergey Karasev, SF, Triumph Moscow

The son of a coach, Karasev has an excellent feel on the offensive end and is also a great shooter. And while I love his game on that end of the court, his poor lateral quickness on defensive is something his NBA team will have to work hard to hide. Karasev has said already that he will enter the draft and should be a likely first rounder.

27. Denver Nuggets - JR Cory Jefferson, F/C, Baylor

Cory Jefferson had a March run that rivaled Mitch McGary's, only problem is he did it in the NIT. He averaged 21 points on 72% shooting during their 5 game run that ended in the NIT Title. Jefferson, like McGary, also had the benefit of playing with a great point guard and that is something to look at when looking for sleeper energy power forwards. While McGary and Jefferson were able to showcases their talents easier playing with great point guards, guys like Tony Mitchell, Arsalan Kazemi, Jackie Carmichael, Jarnell Stokes, and Trevor Mbakwe didn't have the same opportunity to show off their gifts. Having said that, I really like Cory Jefferson as a sleeper and I don't think late first round is a stretch for him. He's as explosive as it gets.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder - JR Jamaal Franklin, G/F, San Diego State

Franklin's upside and skills are overstated due to highlights films. He is not a guy who has potential to be a great NBA player and won't be a very efficient offensive player. But the guy competes, defends, and rebounds strong inside. He also has terrific instincts. If he focuses on being a defender, he is a crafty enough offensive player to be able to get to the line when needed and score with his transition opportunities. With the Thunder, he should understand what he needs to do to see the court very early in training camp.

29. San Antonio Spurs - JR Allen Crabbe, SG, California

Allen Crabbe makes his living coming off screens and making shots. He does a good job moving off the ball, working very hard to get open, and isn't just a guy who will use screens to get open 3-pt looks. Crabbe will curl around screens and use a nifty floater in the lane as well. In the Spurs offense, they can take advantage of his skills and utilize him the way he needs to be. Popovich will also be good for Crabbe's personal development, as his mental game is one of his biggest question marks. His NCAA tournament performance against Syracuse was a good example of that.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers - 1994 Mouhammadou Jaiteh, F/C, Boulogne

Raw big man who could have a Bismack Biyombo-esque climb after playing in the Nike Hoop Summit. According to his agent, he is "100%" in the draft and "90%" staying in. My guess is he will be looking for a first round guarantee.

31. Oklahoma City Thunder - SO BJ Young, G, Arkansas
32. Cleveland Cavaliers - SR Mike Muscala, F/C, Bucknell
33. Houston Rockets - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
34. Cleveland Cavaliers - JR Russ Smith, G, Louisville
35. Detroit Pistons - SO Le'Bryan Nash, SF, Oklahoma State
36. Philadelphia 76ers - JR CJ Wilcox, G/F, Washington
37. Sacramento Kings - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas
38. Memphis Grizzlies - SR Brandon Paul, G, Illinois
39. Washington Wizards - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State
40. Portland Trailblazers - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
41. Philadelphia 76ers - SO Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
42. Denver Nuggets - JR Tim Hardaway Jr, SG, Michigan
43. Dallas Mavericks - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State
44. Los Angeles Lakers - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
45. Milwaukee Bucks - SR Pierre Jackson, PG, Baylor
46. Portland Trailblazers - JR Lorenzo Brown, PG, North Carolina State
47. Utah Jazz - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit
48. Atlanta Hawks - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
49. Chicago Bulls - JR Deshaun Thomas, F, Ohio State
50. Atlanta Hawks - SR Richard Howell, PF, North Carolina State
51. Orlando Magic - JR Doug McDermott, F, Creighton
52. Minnesota Timberwolves - FR Ricky Ledo, SG, Providence
53. Indiana Pacers - 1992 Leo Westermann, PG, Partizan Belgrade
54. Washington Wizards - SO Adonis Thomas, SF, Memphis
55. Detroit Pistons - 1991 Bojan Dubljevic, PF, Valencia
56. Los Angeles Lakers - 1991 Nemanja Nedovic, G, Lietuvos Rytas
57. Phoenix Suns - SR Trevor Mbakwe, PF, Minnesota
58. Minnesota Timberwolves - SR Arsalan Kazemi, PF, Oregon
59. San Antonio Spurs - SR Carrick Felix, SF, Arizona State
60. Miami Heat - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri

Early Favorites for 2013-14 National Championship

2013-04-08T20:53:00.002-07:00

Louisville is your 2013 National Champion, but could they repeat? Gorgui Dieng and Peyton Siva are gone for sure and Russ Smith may follow them, but they will have another strong team thanks to a pair of incoming guards. With Michigan, it remains to be seen who will leave. If everyone returns minus Burke, they will have a spot in this top 10 as well. Here is an early look at the top 10 teams for next season:

EDIT: Russ Smith is heading to the NBA, according to his dad.

1. Kentucky Wildcats

PG - Andrew Harrison/Jarrod Polson
SG - Aaron Harrison/James Young
SF - Alex Poythress/Jon Hood
PF - Julius Randle/Kyle Wiltjer/Derek Willis
C - Dakari Johnson/Willie Cauley-Stein/Marcus Lee

Analysis: Kentucky has by far the most talented roster and with a deeper team, shouldn't encounter the same problems they did this year. Coach Cal will be able to motivate players with playing time and having an actual floor general in Andrew Harrison will help everyone. This team can get to the rim, shoot the ball very well, and score in the post with guys like Dakari Johnson and Julius Randle. They also can go big with multiple different looks or go small and move Alex Poythress to the PF spot. The amount of looks this Kentucky team can give you is scary.

2. Duke Blue Devils

PG - Quinn Cook/Tyler Thornton
SG - Rasheed Sulaimon/Andre Dawkins(?)/Matt Jones
SF - Rodney Hood/Alex Murphy/Semi Ojeleye
PF - Jabari Parker/Josh Hairston
C - Marshall Plumlee/Amile Jefferson

Analysis: Duke has plenty of depth on the wings which is why its good that Jabari Parker seems to already be embracing the idea of playing inside next season. With Parker and Hood, Duke gets two of the biggest impact newcomers in college basketball and it should help fill the void left by Ryan Kelly, Mason Plumlee, and Seth Curry. Their biggest question mark is at the center spot where Marshall Plumlee will get every opportunity to win the job, but if he doesn't look for a lot of small lineups.

3. Michigan State

PG - Keith Appling/Travis Trice
SG - Gary Harris
SF - Denzel Valentine/Russell Byrd
PF - Branden Dawson/Kenny Kaminski/Alex Gauna/Gavin Schilling
C - Adreian Payne/Matt Costello

Analysis: Michigan State doesn't have the depth that Kentucky or Duke has, but Izzo has assembled a bench full of hard-nosed kids that are willing to play their roles and do the dirty work. In their starting lineup, look for Gary Harris to make the jump to an All-American level while Payne and Dawson will form a great duo down low. Michigan State will be a little smaller this year with Valentine replacing Nix in the starting lineup, but an extra ball handler and creator might end up helping their offense flow better. For the most part, this will be a very similar Michigan State team with another year of experience under Izzo - who always gets the most out of his players.

4. Arizona

PG - TJ McConnell
SG - Nick Johnson/Gabe York/Elliott Pitts
SF - Aaron Gordon/Rondae Jefferson
PF - Brandon Ashley/Grant Jarrett/Matt Korcheck
C - Kaleb Tarczewski/Angelo Chol

Analysis: Even though Arizona loses its two biggest contributors - Mark Lyons and Solomon Hill - they return a very young and talented roster with plenty of room to grow. Their recruiting class last year was great and they are building on it by adding Aaron Gordon and Rondae Jefferson, both of whom are hard-nosed and tough defenders. Arizona should be one of the best defensive teams in the NCAA with Tarczweski shutting down the post, Nick Johnson at guard, and the freshman handling the forward spot. The question will be whether this team can score enough to be a serious title threat.

5. Louisville

PG - Chris Jones/Terry Rozier
SG - Luke Hancock/Anton Gill
SF - Wayne Blackshear/Kevin Ware
PF - Chane Behanan/Akoy Agau
C - Montrezl Harrell/Stephan Van Treese/Zach Price/Mangok Mathiang

With or without Russ returning, this Louisville team should still remain int he top 5. We saw what Luke Hancock is capable of, so there should be no worry if he has to start next year. Getting him more minutes should be seen as a good thing. Behanan, Harrell, and Van Treese should hold down the inside. Chris Jones and Terry Rozier are both highly ranked point guards that are more prepared than your average 5 star recruited (coming from the JUCO and prep level respectively). Pitino will have this group terrorizing opposing guards in no time.

6. Syracuse

PG - Tyler Ennis
SG - Trevor Cooney/Ron Patterson
SF - CJ Fair/Michael Gbinjie/BJ Johnson
PF - Rakeem Christmas/Jerami Grant/Tyler Roberson
C - Dajuan Coleman/Baye Keita/Chinonso Obokho

Analysis: Tyler Ennis should come in and replace Michael Carter-Williams and do just fine. While he won't be as great of a presence on defense, his ability to control the game on offense and be consistent should be a welcomed sign to Cuse fans. CJ Fair will take over an even bigger role and he'll need either Ron Patterson, Trevor Cooney, or Duke transfer Michael Gbinjie to step up and take some pressure off him. Inside you'll probably see a twin tower look to start games, but look for Jerami Grant to have a big role on next year's team.

7. Florida

PG - Scottie Wilbekin/Kasey Hill/Braxton Ogbueze
SG - Michael Frazier
SF - Dorian Finney-Smith/Casey Prather
PF - Chris Walker/Will Yeguete
C - Patric Young/Damontre Harris

Analysis: The Gators lose two high scoring backcourt members in Kenny Boynton and Mike Rosario, but they shouldn't have too much trouble replacement their inefficient scoring. Losing Erik Murphy hurts them more, a power forward who was able to spread the floor and hit shots from the outside. Without him, Florida will lose the wide open attack that worked so well for them this past season. Instead, they'll play with two legit big men at all times and their SF (Dorian Finney-Smith) won't even be able to spread the floor like Murphy. Florida may not score as easily this season, but they are in for another great defensive year and should be absolutely dominant on the boards. They have a team full of rebounders and return some key role players from last years squad.

8. Ohio State

PG - Aaron Craft/Shannon Scott
SG - Lenzelle Smith Jr/Kameron Williams
SF - Sam Thompson/Amadeo Della Valle
PF - LaQuinton Ross/Marc Loving
C - Amir Williams/Trey McDonald

Analysis: Ohio State returns plenty of talent, but losing Deshaun Thomas and Evan Ravenel creates two big holes. LaQuinton Ross will be the one expected to fill Thomas' scoring and he'll have no problem taking the same amount of shots as Thomas did. But Ravenel's size inside will be missed as well and the Buckeyes badly need some signs of life from Trey McDonald if they are to compete next year. They already had to play small with Thomas at center last year at times and asking Ross to do that just isn't ideal. In the backcourt, Ohio State should be even better than they were this year. Sam Thompson also could finally have his breakout season.

9. Georgetown

PG - Markel Starks
SG - Jabril Trawick/Stephen Domingo/Aaron Bowen
SF - Greg Whittington/Reggie Camerson
PF - Nate Lubick/Moses Ayegba
C - Mikael Hopkins/Josh Smith

Analysis: Georgetown loses their star in Otto Porter, but will return the rest of their team and get back Greg Whittington as well. The Hoyas got better when Whittington went out, but thats because it forced JTIII to put another ball handler on the court which ended up being a good move. Whittington is no Otto Porter, but can fill a similar role in the offense. With the rest of the team returning, they should be able to pick up some of the slack. The loss of Porter will be felt most when they enter the tournament, as they will lack even less fire power than this season when they lost is the Round of 64 - so don't expect the Hoyas to make a tournament run in 2014 either.

10. Indiana

PG - Yogi Ferrell/Maurice Creek
SG - Remy Abel/Stanford Robinson/Andre Etherington
SF - Will Sheehey/Jeremy Hollowell/Troy Williams
PF - Noah Vonleh/Hanner Mosquera Perea
C - Peter Jurkin/Luke Fischer

Analysis: Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo formed arguably the best duo in all of college basketball this year and will be extremely hard to replace. Indiana will be in need of some star power and they hope they have it in freshman power forward Noah Vonleh. Will Vonleh have a FPOY caliber year or just a solid year will be the difference in whether Indiana can revenge their early exit in this year's Sweet 16. They should still remain strong on the wings and Yogi Ferrell will be solid at the point.

The Rest (Very Rough Draft of 11-35, too many things up in the air to publish anything official. Complete top 25 will be out after the picture gets clearer later this month).

11. Marquette
12. Memphis
13. Colorado
14. Michigan
15. Connecticut
16. Iowa
17. North Carolina
18. Kansas
19. Tennessee
20. Wichita State
21. VCU
22. Maryland
23. Virginia
24. Alabama
25. Notre Dame
26. Wisconsin
27. Boise State
28. LSU
29. Gonzaga
30. Villanova
31. Indiana State
32. Louisiana Tech
33. Butler
34. BYU
35. New Mexico