Market Sense 市场意识

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2025

2025-03-29T09:21:00.001+08:00

https://www.clsa.com/special/FSI/2025/

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2024

2024-07-11T10:22:00.009+08:00

https://www.clsa.com/special/FSI/2024/

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2023

2023-01-13T10:03:00.003+08:00

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2022

2022-01-19T11:07:00.001+08:00

Penguin's HK market outlook 210501

2021-05-01T14:28:00.004+08:00

Daily chart (Source: investing.com) TA view for illustration purpose only

Jan to mid Mar mainboard average trading value: 226.57B

mid mar to Apr mainboard average trading value: 164.50B

difference: -27.40%

Observation:

HK enjoyed good trading vol and good sentiment since Jan to mid Mar. But from mid Mar to Apr ave trading vol shrinks 27% and HSI stuck within range for 1.5 months ( 27500 - 29400)

Outlook:

expect the rangebound pattern will be continued to May until significant trading vol breakout above 200B and can sustain for 3 days.

ETF recommendation for long term income:

SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF HKD 3047

by ckchoy

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2021

2021-01-28T10:15:00.007+08:00

https://www.clsa.com/special/FSI/2021/

Gold Price Estimation Using Formula of Balance Sheet and GDP

2020-08-02T09:40:00.000+08:00

Gold Price Estimation Using Formula of Balance Sheet and GDP

Formula

Gold Price * (1+%change of balance sheet)/(1+%change of GDP)

backtest on uptrend where gold top at 1920 in year 2011. The estimation calculation using the formula is 2025: near to actual

backtest on downtrend where gold bottom around 1100 in year 2019. The estimation calculation using the formula is 1076: near to actual

Estimation calculation using the formula for gold price now as of 25/7/2020 using data from

2008 to now : formula calculation is 4778 (25/7/2020)

2011 to now : formula calculation is 2777 (25/7/2020)

2018 to now : formula calculation is 2958 (25/7/2020)

Source

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8HZJAgXfjc&feature=youtu.be

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2020

2020-03-07T13:37:00.002+08:00

https://www.clsa.com/special/FSI/2020/

Singtel Mid Term TA

2019-06-18T10:18:00.003+08:00

After hitting 2.83 low at the bottom line of downtrend channel (mid term chart), Singtel has been rebounding to near the upper line of the downtrend channel. 3.36 marked the 11-months high.
To break up the downtrend channel, first level to watch in short term (about a month) is 3.4. We are watching if downtrend channel will be successfully broken up. If not successful, suggest to take profit around 3.3-3.4.

Mid term chart (Source: Poems Mercury live chart) TA view for illustration purpose only

Hang Seng Index Long Term TA update

2019-06-17T21:38:00.001+08:00

Long term (Monthly chart) trend shows in short term (about months) cannot break below 26k or else the long term uptrend will break down

Long term monthly chart (Source: HSI monthly chart) TA view for illustration purpose only

Hang Seng Index Mid Term Update

2019-02-20T10:29:00.002+08:00

Touching mid term resistance at 28600

Mid term weekly chart (Source: HSI weekly chart) TA view for illustration purpose only

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2019

2019-01-26T20:14:00.002+08:00

https://www.clsa.com/special/FSI/2019/

Hang Seng Index Long Term TA Update 181025

2018-10-25T07:06:00.001+08:00

Update from
Hang Seng Index Long Term TA Update
As prediction

Long term monthly chart (Source: HSI monthly chart) TA view for illustration purpose only

Continued from Hang Seng Index Personal View using TA
As of today HSI closed at 27244. Prediction of next stronger support around 24809 to 25441

Long term monthly chart (Source: HSI monthly chart) TA view for illustration purpose only

Hang Seng Index Long Term TA Update

2018-09-05T18:41:00.000+08:00

Continued from Hang Seng Index Personal View using TA
As of today HSI closed at 27244. Prediction of next stronger support around 24809 to 25441

Long term monthly chart (Source: HSI monthly chart) TA view for illustration purpose only

Sg defensive stocks in bargain

2018-07-05T10:49:00.000+08:00

by ckchoy

table for illustration purpose only

Local market has been hit hard inline with global markets weaknesses, with regional markets eg China and HK are weaker.

refer to above indices marking table:
all the indices are at/near to this year low, eg STI current 3257 vs this year low 3236. It has corrected down 10% from the top (3615 ), and about 5% down vs last year close (3403).

SSE(Shanghai Composite Index) is the worst performing index with -22% from the top (3559 ) which in technically definition, it is in bear market (index down about 20 to 25% from the previous top )

HSI is the second worst with -15% from the top (33154) vs this year low (28242).

From TA point of view, many indices are in bearish sign which means traders tend to short more than long under such condition.

From FA point of view, markets are getting cheaper and attractive, investors tend to buy more.

Suggestions
Can start accumulate good quality defensive counters, eg Singtel (3.08 and below ), ThaiBev around 0.68. SGX around 7.11. Of course, there are more counters in bargain prices......

Suncity TA

2018-04-11T13:31:00.002+08:00

It consolidated to a low around 0.464 and stay flat with low activity from Aug 2017 to Jan 21 2018.
From 22 Jan 2018 started to ramp up and hit high of 1.19
As of now at 11 Apr 2018 1.26pm, price at 0.8.
Level to watch
1.00 - short term resistance
0.80 - first critical uptrend support
0.74 to 0.6 - second support range with mid level at 0.7

(source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

Hang Seng Index Personal View using TA

2018-04-09T14:32:00.003+08:00

After hitting the top at 33510 on 29 Jan 2018, Hang Seng Index, HSI reversed down and hit a low at 28570 on 10 Feb before rebounding to a lower high to around level 32000. From here it is consolidating down again and a downtrend channel was drawn on the short term daily chart, connecting the top 33510 and the lower high of 28750. As of current 9 Apr 2018 2pm HSI traded around 30200 level, where it is around the mid point of consolidating channel.

For short term movement, traders can consider sell into strength when it traded near to channel resistance around 31000 and above; and buy for a short term rebound near support level around 29000 level and below. (refer to short term daily chart)

Critical point to watch, using HSI long term monthly chart as reference, if support level 28605 break down convincingly, it may hint HSI uptrend run has ended and downtrend to begin.

Short term news/situation to watch

1)Trade war, especially between US and China...(but my personal view is there will not be negative outcome afterall)

2)Tech counters to continue consolidating? The current bull market run from 1 Feb 2016 low to 2018 has been mainly driven by technology stocks or NASDAQ boom... if tech counters were to fall back for a correction phase, it will drive to a deep pull back or market correction usually about 20%.

Long term monthly chart (Source: HSI monthly chart) TA view for illustration purpose only

Short term daily chart (Source: HSI daily chart) TA view for illustration purpose only

SGX TA and FA

2018-04-04T13:48:00.001+08:00

SGX plunged to low 7.2 on Feb 2018 when lost Indian derivatives business but rebound to 7.7 after announced will list successor products http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sgx-to-roll-out-nifty-successor-products-before-august
Phillip's latest research report on 14 Feb 2018:
Singapore Exchange Limited Market volatility will drive growth
As of now, SGX is traded at 7.28, near to the previous low support at 7.2.
Recommendation : can test water by buying a bit at the range of 7.28 - 7.2

(source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

Daniel Loh on Air 180222

2018-02-22T11:59:00.003+08:00

Summary:
Dow Jones: 24500 - 26000

STI buying range 3300 -3350
resistance 3550 - 3600
Singapore counters to look at
- banks

HSI : 30000 - 33000

Source : Radio Capital 95.8 FM

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2018

2018-02-06T23:29:00.002+08:00

https://www.clsa.com/special/fsi/2018/

Actual

Singpost results and TA

2018-02-02T14:58:00.000+08:00

Q3 Fy2017/18 Net Profit Attributable S$43 Million Versus S$31.4 Million
Dividend Of 0.5 Singapore Cent Per Share Declared
Qtrly Revenue S$412.8 Million Versus S$369.4 Million

support/resistance: 1.23 1.30 1.40 1.48 1.59 1.69 1.80 1.93

3 year chart (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

Daniel Loh on Air 180111 - bull to continue on 1st half, cautious on 2nd half

2018-01-11T12:02:00.002+08:00

Summary:
The bull market will continue in first half of 2018, cautious on second half of 2018 as market may correct down.
Favour US Penny counters, they will lead the gain in 2018
US banks

Singapore counters to look at
- oil related counters
- property counters

Source : Radio Capital 95.8 FM

Phillip 2018 Singapore Strategy: Phillip Absolute 10

2018-01-03T13:45:00.001+08:00

Phillip 2018 Singapore Strategy: Phillip Absolute 10
https://www.stocksbnb.com/reports/phillip-2018-singapore-strategy-phillip-absolute-10/

https://www.stocksbnb.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/SGStrategy20171218-Absolute-10.pdf

Daniel Loh on Air 171130 - no sign of bear coming yet

2017-11-30T12:00:00.001+08:00

Summary

US market may face correction, but afterward market still healthy will rebound after retreat.STI range
3300 - 3450

Overall world market at relatively high level, suggest not to enter market for now.

Source : Radio Capital 95.8 FM

Daniel Loh on Air 171116

2017-11-16T11:59:00.000+08:00

Summary

STI range
3300 - 3450

Cautious in the following sector
Bank - anticipation of interest hike euphoria could be over
oil related counter - oil may trend down

Source : Radio Capital 95.8 FM