Centre of the Box

English League Championship Final SRS Rankings and Playoff Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Wed, 11 May 2011 20:56:00 +0000

Here are the final rankings for the Championship:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	0.848	0.000	0.848
Swansea City	0.587	0.000	0.587
Reading	0.565	0.000	0.565
Norwich City	0.543	0.000	0.543
Cardiff City	0.478	0.000	0.478
Nottingham Forest	0.413	0.000	0.413
Millwall	0.304	0.000	0.304
Leeds United	0.239	0.000	0.239
Watford	0.130	0.000	0.130
Leicester City	0.109	0.000	0.109
Burnley	0.087	0.000	0.087
Hull City	0.022	0.000	0.022
Middlesbrough	0.000	0.000	0.000
Bristol City	-0.065	0.000	-0.065
Coventry City	-0.087	0.000	-0.087
Ipswich Town	-0.130	0.000	-0.130
Portsmouth	-0.152	0.000	-0.152
Barnsley	-0.239	0.000	-0.239
Derby County	-0.283	0.000	-0.283
Crystal Palace	-0.543	0.000	-0.543
Preston North End	-0.543	0.000	-0.543
Doncaster Rovers	-0.565	0.000	-0.565
Sheffield United	-0.761	0.000	-0.761
Scunthorpe United	-0.957	0.000	-0.957

You will notice that the strength of schedule (SOS) for all teams is now zero. This is because every team has played every other team an equal number of times (twice). In general, SOS will converge towards zero as the season progresses. Also, whenever a league has a balanced schedule, like the Championship, it will also converge to zero.

After the jump, my playoff predictions:

For this week's games here are my predictions:

Nottingham Forest 2 Swansea City 1
Reading 2 Cardiff City 2

Despite predicting a loss in the first match, I predict that Swansea will come back to defeat Forest and carry through to the final. I'm picking Reading to defeat Cardiff in aggregate and face the Swans in the final. Based on the SRS rankings above, I am now projecting Swansea to defeat Reading in the Playoff final.

MLS Weekend Wrap Up and Midweek Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Wed, 11 May 2011 19:00:00 +0000

To quote another famous writer, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times" for the MLS this weekend. The best of times were on Saturday night which featured a showdown between two of the best teams in the league, Los Angeles and New York. Each team is led by a superstar, Landon Donovan for LA and Thierry Henry for New York. Both Henry (video) and Donovan (video) scored in the match which ended up in a 1-1 draw.

The worst of times featured a serious injury to Real Salt Lake midfielder Javier Morales. Hopefully the casual fans who tuned in for the LA/New York match didn't also watch the three 0-0 draws that were played earlier in the day.

There are three midweek games on Wednesday. Here are my predictions for the trio:

Philadelphia 1 Los Angeles 0
FC Dallas 3 Toronto FC 1
Vancouver 2 San Jose 2

After the jump I will review my predictions from last weekend.

Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Real Salt Lake	2	Chivas USA	0	Real Salt Lake	1	Chivas USA	0	10
Toronto FC	0	Houston	1	Toronto FC	2	Houston	1	-10
D.C. United	2	FC Dallas	2	D.C. United	0	FC Dallas	0	20
Columbus	1	Seattle	0	Columbus	1	Seattle	1	-10
New England	0	Colorado	1	New England	0	Colorado	0	-10
Chicago	2	Vancouver	1	Chicago	0	Vancouver	0	-10
Los Angeles	0	New York	1	Los Angeles	1	New York	1	-10
							Total	-20

Yikes! Only eight goals scored in seven matches. MLS and MLB now have scoring droughts in common. I predicted 2 of 7 outcomes correctly but no final scores.

Premier League Weekend Wrap Up

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Tue, 10 May 2011 02:37:00 +0000

Manchester United is now on the brink of clinching the title after their home victory over Chelsea. With a 6-point lead United needs merely one point in the next two matches to regain their status as Premier League champions.

Liverpool continues their scorching hot play as they destroyed Fulham 5-2. This victory combined with Tottenham's draw against Blackpool pushes the Reds into 5th place which is the final European spot in the league.

At the bottom of the table, Wolves jumped outside of the relegation zone with a 3-1 win over West Brom. Despite the loss, 13th-placed West Brom is safe from relegation, but every team below them has some work to do if they want to return to the Premier next year.

After the jump I will recap my predictions from the weekend.

Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Aston Villa	1	Wigan Athletic	1	Aston Villa	1	Wigan Athletic	1	30
Bolton Wanderers	2	Sunderland	1	Bolton Wanderers	1	Sunderland	2	-10
Everton	1	Manchester City	1	Everton	2	Manchester City	1	-10
Newcastle United	2	Birmingham City	1	Newcastle United	2	Birmingham City	1	30
West Ham United	2	Blackburn Rovers	2	West Ham United	1	Blackburn Rovers	1	20
Tottenham Hotspur	2	Blackpool	1	Tottenham Hotspur	1	Blackpool	1	-10
Wolverhampton Wanderers	2	West Bromwich Albion	2	Wolverhampton Wanderers	3	West Bromwich Albion	1	-10
Stoke City	1	Arsenal	2	Stoke City	3	Arsenal	1	-10
Manchester United	2	Chelsea	1	Manchester United	2	Chelsea	1	30
Fulham	2	Liverpool	1	Fulham	2	Liverpool	5	-10
							Total	50

Although I only predicted 4 of 10 outcomes, 3 of them had the correct score. Quality over quantity :)

There is one midweek match on Tuesday. Here is my prediction:

Manchester City 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1

League Championship Weekend Wrapup

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Mon, 09 May 2011 21:54:00 +0000

The Championship finished their regular season on Saturday and congratulations to Queens Park Rangers and Norwich City who earned automatic promotions to the Premier League. QPR finished first with 88 points, 4 points ahead of the Canaries. QPR was awaiting word from the Football Association which was ruling on irregularities concerning the economic rights of player Alejandro Faurlin. There was the possibility of a points deduction which could have cost them the title. However, the FA fined QPR instead so the Rangers get to bring home the trophy.

Rangers return to the Premier for the first time since relegation following the 1996 season. For Norwich they last played in the top flight in 2005. Since then they struggled and were actually relegated into League One, one level below the Championship, after the 2009 season. They bounced back and won the League one title in 2010 and then earned a second consecutive promotion this season.

The playoffs are all set. Swansea City will face Nottingham Forest while Cardiff City takes on Reading. Playoffs schedule can be found here. Swansea managed to get third place, finishing ahead of their Welsh rivals Cardiff based on goal differential. Nottingham's win over Crystal Palace gave them the points they needed to stay ahead of Leeds United who beat QPR on Saturday.

The Championship bids farewell to the three relegated teams, Preston North End, Sheffield United and Scunthorpe United. Preston had the longest current tenure at this level of any team in the league, having been here for 11 consecutive seasons. Scunthorpe's stay was brief, just one season as they return back to League One after earning promotion from there last year. Sheffield United ends a four-season run after relegation from the Premier League and will also be ~~returning~~ dropping to League One. Moving up from that level will be champions Brighton & Hove Albion and runner-up Southampton. The third spot will be filled by the winner of the League One playoffs.

After the jump I will review the results of my weekend predictions.

Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Norwich City	2	Coventry City	1	Norwich City	2	Coventry City	2	-10
Reading	2	Derby County	1	Reading	2	Derby County	1	30
Leicester City	2	Ipswich Town	1	Leicester City	4	Ipswich Town	2	10
Queens Park Rangers	2	Leeds United	1	Queens Park Rangers	1	Leeds United	2	-10
Burnley	1	Cardiff City	1	Burnley	2	Cardiff City	2	20
Barnsley	1	Millwall	1	Barnsley	1	Millwall	0	-10
Bristol City	1	Hull City	2	Bristol City	3	Hull City	0	-10
Crystal Palace	1	Nottingham Forest	1	Crystal Palace	0	Nottingham Forest	3	-10
Scunthorpe United	1	Portsmouth	2	Scunthorpe United	1	Portsmouth	1	-10
Swansea City	2	Sheffield United	0	Swansea City	4	Sheffield United	0	10
Preston North End	1	Watford	2	Preston North End	3	Watford	1	-10
Middlesbrough	2	Doncaster Rovers	1	Middlesbrough	3	Doncaster Rovers	0	10
							Total	10

I basically broke even in my final week of predictions. Guessed 5 of 12 outcomes correctly and one score exactly. Later this week I will post my predictions for the playoffs.

MLS Prediction 5/7

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Sat, 07 May 2011 13:14:00 +0000

Excluding Friday night's match because I'm behind so these predictions will be for Saturday's matches only:

Real Salt Lake 2 Chivas USA 0
Toronto FC 0 Houston 1
D.C. United 2 FC Dallas 2
Columbus 1 Seattle 0
New England 0 Colorado 1
Chicago 2 Vancouver 1
Los Angeles 0 New York 1

Premier League Predictions 5/7

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Sat, 07 May 2011 13:00:00 +0000

Way behind in my posts this week. Day job keeping me busy plus wedding preparations taking up most of my time lately. Here are my predictions for this weekend's matches:

Aston Villa 1 Wigan 1
Bolton 2 Sunderland 1
Everton 1 Man City 1
Newcastle 2 Birmingham 1
West Ham 2 Blackburn 2
Tottenham 2 Blackpool 1
Wolves 2 WBA 2
Stoke City 1 Arsenal 2
Man Utd 2 Chelsea 1
Fulham 2 Liverpool 1

League Championship Predictions 5/7

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Sat, 07 May 2011 12:39:00 +0000

Yes, I know the games are already in progress but here is how my model is predicting the final round of games for the Championship.

Norwich City 2 Coventry City 1
Reading 2 Derby County 1
Leicester City 2 Ipswich Town 1
Queens Park Rangers 2 Leeds United 1
Burnley 2 Cardiff City 2
Barnsley 1 Millwall 1
Bristol City 1 Hull City 2
Crystal Palace 1 Nottingham Forest 1
Scunthorpe United 1 Portsmouth 2
Swansea City 2 Sheffield United 0
Preston North End 1 Watford 2
Middlesbrough 2 Doncaster Rovers 1

MLS Weekend Roundup and SRS Rankings

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Tue, 03 May 2011 20:56:00 +0000

Let's see how last weekend's predictions turned out:

Houston 4 D.C. United 1 (Prediction: Hou 2 DC 1 Points: +10)
Philadelphia 1 San Jose 0 (Prediction: Phi 1 SJ 0 Points: +30)
Columbus 2 Vancouver 1 (Prediction: Col 3 Van 0 Points: +10)
New York 1 Kansas City 0 (Prediction: NY 3 KC 1 Points: +10)
Colorado 1 Chicago 1 (Prediction:  Col 3 Chic 1 Points: -10)
Seattle 3 Toronto FC 0 (Prediction:  Sea 2 Tor 1 Points: +10)
Portland 1 Real Salt Lake 0 (Prediction: Por 2 RSL 2 Points: -10)
Chivas USA 3 New England 0 (Prediction:  Chiv 0 NE 1 Points: -10)
FC Dallas 2 Los Angeles 1 (Prediction:  FCD 1 LA 1 Points: -10)

Total score: +30 pts so I rebounded nicely from the previous weekend's score of -60. Predicted 5 of 9 outcomes and one game score correctly.

Here are predictions for Wednesday's 2 matches:

DC United 1 Seattle 2
Houston 1 Colorado 0

After the jump, the latest SRS rankings:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
New York	1.143	0.177	1.320	-0.049
Real Salt Lake	1.200	-0.099	1.101	-0.905
Philadelphia	0.500	0.378	0.878	0.014
Houston	0.714	0.084	0.799	0.291
Seattle	0.375	0.204	0.579	0.324
Colorado	0.143	0.053	0.196	-0.076
Columbus	0.286	-0.125	0.161	0.053
Los Angeles	0.222	-0.090	0.133	-0.290
Chivas USA	0.286	-0.342	-0.056	0.408
FC Dallas	0.000	-0.202	-0.202	0.326
San Jose	-0.571	0.365	-0.206	-0.056
Chicago	-0.429	0.025	-0.403	0.285
Vancouver	-0.375	-0.064	-0.439	0.016
Portland	-0.429	-0.037	-0.465	0.435
Kansas City	-0.500	0.004	-0.496	0.197
New England	-0.500	-0.051	-0.551	-0.481
D.C. United	-0.857	0.063	-0.794	-0.443
Toronto FC	-0.750	-0.266	-1.016	-0.239

Like last week, one game had a big impact on the rankings, Portland's 1-0 upset of RSL. RSL still seem to be recovering from their loss at home in the CONCACAF Champions League final. The big drop in their SRS is primarily due to sample size. This is only the 5th MLS match of the season for them. They have the highest MOV so should still be considered one of the top teams in the league.

League Championship Weekend Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 03:34:00 +0000

This is the next to last weekend of the regular season for the Championship. Much can be decided. Here are my predictions:

Watford 1 Queens Park Rangers 1
Ipswich Town 2 Preston North End 2
Hull City 1 Crystal Palace 0
Leeds United 2 Burnley 2
Derby County 2 Bristol City 2
Sheffield United 1 Barnsley 1
Doncaster Rovers 1 Leicester City 1
Nottingham Forest 2 Scunthorpe United 1
Millwall 2 Swansea City 1
Coventry City 1 Reading 2
Portsmouth 1 Norwich City 1
Cardiff City 2 Middlesbrough 1

QPR clinches the title with a win. A draw will guarantee a top two finish and automatic promotion. Both Norwich and Cardiff need to win to keep their title hopes alive. Reading clinches a playoff spot with a draw or better. At the bottom of the table, Scunthorpe and Sheffield both need wins to stave off relegation while hoping for losses by Doncaster and Crystal Palace.

Premier League Weekend Predictions - 4/30

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 03:19:00 +0000

Now that the Royal Wedding is over, soccer can resume in England. Here are my predictions for the Premiership:

Blackburn 1 Bolton 1
Blackpool 2 Stoke City 2
Sunderland 1 Fulham 1
West Brom 2 Aston Villa 2
Wigan 1 Everton 2
Chelsea 2 Tottenham 1
Birmingham 2 Wolves 1
Liverpool 2 Newcastle 0
Arsenal 1 Man United 1
Man City 2 West Ham 0

Anything less than a win will eliminate Arsenal from title contention. A win by United doesn't clinch the title yet, but will put the pressure on Chelsea to keep pace. Let me know what you think of these predictions in the comments.

Premier League SRS Rankings

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 21:08:00 +0000

These rankings include the midweek matches from Tuesday and Wednesday:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Manchester United	1.147	-0.034	1.113	0.004
Chelsea	1.088	-0.050	1.039	0.045
Arsenal	0.912	-0.030	0.881	-0.057
Manchester City	0.636	0.006	0.642	0.000
Liverpool	0.353	0.000	0.352	0.126
Tottenham Hotspur	0.242	-0.029	0.214	-0.024
Everton	0.147	-0.016	0.131	0.004
Fulham	0.118	-0.012	0.106	0.071
Bolton Wanderers	0.029	0.027	0.056	-0.036
Stoke City	0.000	-0.004	-0.004	0.063
Newcastle United	0.029	-0.051	-0.022	-0.025
Sunderland	-0.294	0.038	-0.256	0.051
Aston Villa	-0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.006
West Bromwich Albion	-0.441	0.025	-0.416	0.025
Blackburn Rovers	-0.441	0.010	-0.431	0.011
Birmingham City	-0.500	0.014	-0.486	-0.129
West Ham United	-0.647	0.028	-0.619	-0.039
Wolverhampton Wanderers	-0.676	0.057	-0.620	-0.055
Wigan Athletic	-0.676	0.032	-0.645	-0.053
Blackpool	-0.647	-0.046	-0.693	0.025

This late in the season, changes in MOV will be the biggest drivers of changes in SRS. SOS won't change much when each team has over 30 matches played. This is proven out by the results of the Liverpool/Birmingham match over the weekend, won by the Reds 5-0. The 5-goal margin allows Liverpool to move ahead of Tottenham in the rankings. Could this be a precursor to a similar move in the table? The Reds are only three points behind the Spurs at the moment. That same margin hurts Birmingham's SRS by an equivalent amount and they drop 3 spots in the rankings.

CONCACAF Champions League Final Report

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 20:10:00 +0000

Real Salt Lake lost 1-0 to Monterrey, so Monterrey becomes the 6th consecutive Mexican team to win the title. Great article from Grant Wahl comparing RSL's loss to other disappointments in American soccer. It will be interesting to see how RSL bounces back. I'm predicting a draw against Portland this weekend.

MLS Weekend Predictions - 4/27

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 15:00:00 +0000

Here are my predictions for the weekend slate of matches in the MLS:

Houston 2 D.C. United 1
Philadelphia 1 San Jose 0
New York 3 Kansas City 1
Columbus 3 Vancouver 0
Colorado 3 Chicago 1
Seattle 2 Toronto FC 1
Portland 2 Real Salt Lake 2
Chivas USA 0 New England 1
FC Dallas 1 Los Angeles 1

Hoping for a rebound from last week's results! Let me know your predictions in the comments.

League Championship SRS Rankings - 4/26

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 02:30:00 +0000

Here are the latest SRS rankings for the Championship as of 4/25:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Queens Park Rangers	0.864	-0.008	0.855	-0.020
Reading	0.568	0.007	0.575	-0.064
Cardiff City	0.568	0.001	0.569	0.003
Norwich City	0.545	0.006	0.552	0.093
Swansea City	0.477	0.008	0.486	0.042
Millwall	0.386	-0.006	0.380	0.065
Nottingham Forest	0.273	0.033	0.306	0.029
Watford	0.227	-0.008	0.220	-0.035
Leeds United	0.205	-0.025	0.179	-0.030
Hull City	0.091	0.016	0.106	-0.036
Burnley	0.114	-0.018	0.095	0.037
Leicester City	0.068	0.015	0.083	0.036
Ipswich Town	-0.114	0.012	-0.102	-0.140
Coventry City	-0.091	-0.027	-0.117	-0.046
Portsmouth	-0.136	0.007	-0.130	0.016
Middlesbrough	-0.136	-0.001	-0.137	0.079
Bristol City	-0.182	0.003	-0.178	-0.049
Derby County	-0.227	-0.008	-0.235	-0.046
Barnsley	-0.273	0.008	-0.264	-0.022
Crystal Palace	-0.500	-0.007	-0.507	0.041
Doncaster Rovers	-0.523	0.003	-0.519	0.000
Preston North End	-0.591	-0.003	-0.594	-0.064
Sheffield United	-0.705	-0.005	-0.710	0.090
Scunthorpe United	-0.909	-0.003	-0.912	0.021

All teams have played two matches since I published my last rankings. The Norwich/Ipswich match from 4/21 had a huge impact on each teams' ranking. Norwich scored 8 goals in their two matches over the weekend and are now the highest scoring team in the league. Ipswich gave up 9 goals in their two matches.

Premier League Midweek Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 12:55:00 +0000

There are two midweek matches in the Premiership. Here are my predictions for each:

Tuesday
Stoke City 2 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1

Wednesday
Fulham 1 Bolton Wanderers 1

Do you have predictions of your own? Please post them in the comments!

Premier League Weekend Results - 4/25

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 21:29:00 +0000

Here is a recap of my holiday weekend predictions from the Premier League:

Manchester United 1 Everton 0 (+10 pts)
Aston Villa 1 Stoke City 1 (-10 pts)
Blackpool 1 Newcastle United 1 (+20 pts)
Liverpool 5 Birmingham City 0 (+10 pts)
Sunderland 4 Wigan Athletic 2 (-10 pts)
Tottenham Hotspur 2 West Bromwich Albion 2 (-10 pts)
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 Fulham 1 (+30 pts)
Chelsea 3 West Ham United 0 (+10 pts)
Bolton Wanderers 2 Arsenal 1 (-10 pts)
Blackburn Rovers 0 Manchester City 1 (-10 pts)

Overall score was +30 pts and I predicted 5 of 10 outcomes correctly.

Manchester United leads Chelsea by 6 points with 4 matches left, a comfortable but not a safe lead especially according to Carlo Ancelotti, Chelsea's manager. United still has matches against Arsenal and Chelsea, but if they manage to win or draw those matches then they should win the title.

My latest projection after the break

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester United	38	23	12	3	79	36	43	81
2	Chelsea	38	23	7	8	71	31	40	76
3	Arsenal	38	21	11	6	75	40	35	74
4	Manchester City	38	20	10	8	59	35	24	70
5	Tottenham Hotspur	38	16	13	9	55	48	7	61
6	Liverpool	38	17	7	14	57	43	14	58
7	Everton	38	13	15	10	53	47	6	54
8	Bolton Wanderers	38	13	14	11	54	50	4	53
9	Newcastle United	38	12	11	15	54	55	-1	47
10	Stoke City	38	13	7	18	47	49	-2	46
11	Sunderland	38	11	13	14	44	54	-10	46
12	Aston Villa	38	11	13	14	48	62	-14	46
13	Fulham	38	9	18	11	43	41	2	45
14	West Bromwich Albion	38	10	12	16	55	72	-17	42
15	Birmingham City	38	9	15	14	38	56	-18	42
16	Blackburn Rovers	38	9	11	18	45	61	-16	38
17	Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	10	7	21	43	65	-22	37
18	Wigan Athletic	38	7	15	16	38	63	-25	36
19	Blackpool	38	9	9	20	53	79	-26	36
20	West Ham United	38	7	14	17	44	68	-24	35

The Bolton's last minute victory over Arsenal resulted in a 3 point swing for both teams. Arsenal dropped 3 and dropped into third place for the first time since I started these projections. Bolton picked up three points but remains in 8th place overall. There was no change in the relegation zone.

League Championship Easter Monday Results and Updated Projection

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 20:36:00 +0000

Unlike in the US, Easter Monday is a holiday in the UK. One of the ways they celebrate is by playing soccer. All 24 teams in the Championship played today. Here is how they performed vs my predictions:

Burnley 1 Portsmouth 1 (-10 pts)
Scunthorpe United 1 Millwall 2 (+30 pts)
Preston North End 0 Cardiff City 1 (+15 pts)
Swansea City 4 Ipswich Town 1 (+10 pts)
Bristol City 2 Nottingham Forest 3 (-10 pts)
Leicester City 4 Watford 2 (-10 pts)
Queens Park Rangers 1 Hull City 1 (-10 pts)
Barnsley 2 Doncaster Rovers 2 (-10 pts)
Reading 2 Sheffield United 3 (-10 pts)
Norwich 3 Derby County 2 (+15 pts)
Middlesbrough 2 Coventry City 1 (-10 pts)
Crystal Palace 1 Leeds United 0 (-10 pts)

Overall score was -10 pts and I projected 4 of 12 outcomes correctly.

A victory by QPR would have clinched the title but Hull City held them to a draw. Meanwhile Norwich and Cardiff's wins kept their title hopes alive. Cardiff's victory over Preston North End clinched relegation for the Lillywhites.

After the jump, my updated projection.

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Queens Park Rangers	46	24	17	5	71	32	39	89
2	Norwich City	46	23	15	8	84	58	26	84
3	Cardiff City	46	24	11	11	79	53	26	83
4	Reading	46	21	16	9	79	52	27	79
5	Swansea City	46	23	8	15	66	44	22	77
6	Nottingham Forest	46	19	16	11	64	51	13	73
7	Millwall	46	19	14	13	65	47	18	71
8	Hull City	46	18	16	12	54	48	6	70
9	Burnley	46	18	15	13	68	63	5	69
10	Leeds United	46	17	16	13	81	73	8	67
11	Leicester City	46	19	10	17	74	71	3	67
12	Watford	46	17	14	15	79	68	11	65
13	Portsmouth	46	16	13	17	55	61	-6	61
14	Ipswich Town	46	17	9	20	61	67	-6	60
15	Middlesbrough	46	16	11	19	65	72	-7	59
16	Bristol City	46	15	10	21	60	69	-9	55
17	Barnsley	46	13	15	18	54	66	-12	54
18	Coventry City	46	14	11	21	54	60	-6	53
19	Derby County	46	13	11	22	60	71	-11	50
20	Doncaster Rovers	46	11	15	20	58	80	-22	48
21	Crystal Palace	46	12	12	22	44	67	-23	48
22	Sheffield United	46	11	9	26	43	76	-33	42
23	Scunthorpe United	46	12	5	29	43	85	-42	41
24	Preston North End	46	9	13	24	53	80	-27	40

Nottingham's victory over Bristol City gives them 2 additional points and moves them ahead of Millwall for the final playoff spot. I'm still projecting Reading to defeat Cardiff in the playoff final. Leicester saw the biggest improvement (4 points and 1 spot in the table). Reading's projection dropped by 3 points after their upset loss to Sheffield United.

MLS Weekend Results and Updated SRS Rankings

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 19:05:00 +0000

Given that this was the first weekend of my MLS predictions and given that they were based on only a handful of games for each team, I didn't expect to do real well with them. It turns out I did worse. Here is the recap:

D.C United 0 New York 4 (-10 pts)
Colorado 0 Seattle 1 (-10 pts)
San Jose 1 Chivas USA 2 (-10 pts)
Toronto FC 1 Columbus 1 (-10 pts)
Vancouver 1 FC Dallas 2 (-10 pts)
New England 3 Kansas City 2 (-10 pts)
Chicago 1 Houston 1 (-10 pts)
Los Angeles 3 Portland 0 (+10 pts)

Of the eight matches played I only predicted the correct outcome in the LA/Portland match. I also missed the fact that the Real Salt Lake/Philadelphia match was rescheduled to September 3 due to RSL's upcoming appearance in the CONCACAF Champions League final. Based on the Barclays "I Know the Score" scoring system I ended up at -60 points for the week. I expect that these predictions will become more accurate each week as we get more data.

After the jump I will have updated SRS rankings for the league.

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	1.750	0.256	2.006	0.006
New York	1.167	0.203	1.369	0.519
Philadelphia	0.400	0.464	0.864	0.187
Houston	0.333	0.175	0.508	-0.052
Los Angeles	0.375	0.048	0.423	0.304
Colorado	0.167	0.106	0.272	-0.478
Seattle	0.000	0.255	0.255	0.366
Columbus	0.167	-0.058	0.108	-0.092
New England	-0.143	0.073	-0.070	-0.064
San Jose	-0.500	0.350	-0.150	0.010
D.C. United	-0.500	0.149	-0.351	-0.531
Vancouver	-0.286	-0.169	-0.455	-0.091
Chivas USA	-0.167	-0.297	-0.464	0.129
FC Dallas	-0.167	-0.361	-0.528	0.122
Chicago	-0.500	-0.188	-0.688	0.275
Kansas City	-0.400	-0.293	-0.693	-0.080
Toronto FC	-0.429	-0.348	-0.777	0.031
Portland	-0.667	-0.233	-0.900	-0.320

This early in the season the weekly fluctuations will be quite large. New York's 4-0 thrashing of D.C. United demonstrates this as each team's rating changed by over half a point. As the season progresses, these changes will start to smooth out. Idle RSL remains on top (CONCACAF games are not included in these rankings). Portland drops to the bottom after their 3-0 loss to LA.

League Championship Predictions - 4/25

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 14:56:00 +0000

The Championship is celebrating Easter Monday with a full slate of matches. here are my predictions:

Burnley 2 Portsmouth 1
Scunthorpe United 1 Millwall 2
Preston North End 1 Cardiff City 2
Swansea City 1 Ipswich Town 0
Bristol City 1 Nottingham Forest 1
Leicester City 2 Watford 2
Queens Park Rangers 2 Hull City 1
Barnsley 2 Doncaster Rovers 1
Reading 2 Sheffield United 0
Norwich City 2 Derby County 1
Middlesbrough 1 Coventry City 1
Crystal Palace 1 Leeds United 1

If Queens Park Rangers wins tomorrow, they will be champions. If they draw, Cardiff City and Norwich City need to win to keep their hopes alive. Reading's title hopes were dashed over the weekend.

League Championship Weekend Results and Updated Projection

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 14:44:00 +0000

My predictions fared pretty well this weekend. Here is a recap:

Ipswich Town 1 Norwich City 5 (+10 pts)
Coventry City 1 Scunthorpe United 1 (-10 pts)
Leeds United 0 Reading 0 (+20 pts)
Doncaster Rovers 0 Crystal Palace 0 (-10 pts)
Nottingham Forest 3 Leicester City 2 (+15 pts)
Portsmouth 0 Swansea City 0 (+20 pts)
Millwall 4 Preston North End 0 (+10 pts)
Hull City 2 Middlesbrough 4 (-10 pts)
Derby County 2 Burnley 4 (-10 pts)
Watford 1 Barnsley 0 (+15 pts)
Cardiff City 2 Queens Park Rangers 2 (+20 pts)
Sheffield United 3 Bristol City 2 (-10 pts)

Predicted the correct outcome in 7 of the 12 matches. Total score for the week is +60 points. After the jump, my updated projection for the table:

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Queens Park Rangers	46	25	16	5	72	32	40	91
2	Norwich City	46	23	15	8	83	57	26	84
3	Cardiff City	46	24	11	11	80	54	26	83
4	Reading	46	22	16	8	79	49	30	82
5	Swansea City	46	23	8	15	63	43	20	77
6	Millwall	46	19	14	13	64	46	18	71
7	Nottingham Forest	46	18	17	11	62	50	12	71
8	Burnley	46	19	14	13	68	63	5	71
9	Leeds United	46	17	17	12	82	73	9	68
10	Hull City	46	17	16	13	53	49	4	67
11	Watford	46	17	15	14	79	66	13	66
12	Leicester City	46	17	12	17	71	71	0	63
13	Ipswich Town	46	17	10	19	61	64	-3	61
14	Portsmouth	46	16	12	18	55	62	-7	60
15	Middlesbrough	46	15	12	19	65	72	-7	57
16	Bristol City	46	15	12	19	59	66	-7	57
17	Barnsley	46	14	14	18	54	65	-11	56
18	Coventry City	46	14	12	20	55	59	-4	54
19	Derby County	46	13	11	22	59	70	-11	50
20	Doncaster Rovers	46	11	14	21	57	80	-23	47
21	Crystal Palace	46	11	13	22	44	68	-24	46
22	Scunthorpe United	46	12	5	29	42	84	-42	41
23	Preston North End	46	9	13	24	54	81	-27	40
24	Sheffield United	46	10	9	27	40	76	-36	39

Burnley continues their late charge up the table. They improved by 3 points, jumped up two spots and are now tied with Millwall and Nottingham Forest at 71 points for the last playoff spot. The first tiebreaker is goal differential and Millwall is projected to have a big edge over both teams. Hull City's loss to Middlesbrough really hurt their projection as they dropped 3 points and one spot. They now have to climb over four teams to reach the playoffs which will be tough to do with only three matches remaining.

No change in the playoffs as I am still predicting Reading over Cardiff City in the playoff finals.

Premier League Weekend Predictions - 4/22

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 12:51:00 +0000

I'm celebrating Earth Day today by typing in green. Speaking of green, Forbes recently published their annual valuations of soccer teams and players. Manchester United tops the list of teams with an estimated value of $1.86 billion. No wonder the Glazer family refuses to sell this team. Real Madrid came in second at $1.4 billion. Maybe they can use some of that money to replace the Copa del Rey trophy that was run over by their bus. The top earning player is David Beckham earning an estimated $40 million annually. Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi were next.

Let's move on to the Premiership which will be celebrating Easter by playing soccer. Here are my predictions for the weekend.

Manchester United 2 Everton 0
Aston Villa 2 Stoke City 1
Blackpool 2 Newcastle United 2
Liverpool 2 Birmingham City 1
Sunderland 1 Wigan Athletic 1
Tottenham Hotspur 2 West Bromwich Albion 1
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 Fulham 1
Chelsea 2 West Ham United 0
Bolton Wanderers 1 Arsenal 2
Blackburn Rovers 1 Manchester City 1

Happy Earth Day and Happy Easter to all!

Premier League SRS Rankings - 4/21

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 18:35:00 +0000

Here are the Premier League rankings as of 4/20's matches. The "Change" column represents each team's change from last week's rankings.

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Manchester United	1.152	-0.042	1.109	-0.032
Chelsea	1.030	-0.036	0.994	0.042
Arsenal	0.970	-0.032	0.938	-0.045
Manchester City	0.625	0.017	0.642	-0.004
Tottenham Hotspur	0.250	-0.012	0.238	0.027
Liverpool	0.212	0.014	0.226	0.023
Everton	0.182	-0.054	0.127	0.039
Bolton Wanderers	0.094	-0.001	0.092	0.003
Fulham	0.031	0.004	0.035	0.000
Newcastle United	0.030	-0.027	0.003	0.035
Stoke City	-0.094	0.026	-0.067	-0.004
Sunderland	-0.364	0.056	-0.307	-0.072
Birmingham City	-0.364	0.007	-0.357	0.043
Aston Villa	-0.364	0.004	-0.359	0.024
West Bromwich Albion	-0.455	0.013	-0.441	-0.029
Blackburn Rovers	-0.424	-0.018	-0.442	-0.045
Wolverhampton Wanderers	-0.625	0.060	-0.565	0.002
West Ham United	-0.576	-0.004	-0.580	-0.035
Wigan Athletic	-0.636	0.044	-0.592	0.051
Blackpool	-0.667	-0.052	-0.718	-0.061

Due to gaps in the SRS scores, the teams that saw the biggest positive and negative changes, Wigan and Sunderland respectively, did not move up or down in the rankings. Chelsea and Arsenal swapped spots again near the top.

League Championship Rankings - 4/21

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:13:00 +0000

Here are the latest rankings through matches of 4/19:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	0.905	-0.029	0.875
Reading	0.619	0.020	0.639
Cardiff City	0.571	-0.005	0.566
Norwich City	0.452	0.007	0.459
Swansea City	0.429	0.015	0.444
Millwall	0.286	0.029	0.315
Nottingham Forest	0.238	0.039	0.277
Watford	0.262	-0.007	0.255
Leeds United	0.238	-0.029	0.209
Hull City	0.143	-0.001	0.142
Burnley	0.071	-0.013	0.058
Leicester City	0.048	-0.001	0.047
Ipswich Town	0.048	-0.009	0.038
Coventry City	-0.071	0.001	-0.071
Bristol City	-0.143	0.013	-0.129
Portsmouth	-0.143	-0.003	-0.146
Derby County	-0.167	-0.023	-0.189
Middlesbrough	-0.214	-0.002	-0.216
Barnsley	-0.262	0.020	-0.242
Doncaster Rovers	-0.548	0.029	-0.519
Preston North End	-0.500	-0.030	-0.530
Crystal Palace	-0.548	0.000	-0.548
Sheffield United	-0.786	-0.015	-0.800
Scunthorpe United	-0.929	-0.004	-0.933

Reading is the hottest team in the Championship at the moment. They are on a 12-match unbeaten streak in league competition with 9 wins and 3 draws over that span. Compared to last week, Burnley saw the most improvement improving by 0.079 points and moving up two spots to 11th overall. Portsmouth is the biggest loser, dropping 0.060 points and two spots to 16th place.

CONCACAF Champions League Final Report

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 15:46:00 +0000

Last night I watched the first leg of the finals match between Real Salt Lake and Monterrey on Fox Soccer Channel and Univision (I don't understand or speak Spanish, but my HD cable package includes Univision while FSC is still in standard def). It ended in a 2-2 draw and was an entertaining and hard-fought match with both sides trading goals. Real tied up the match in the 89th minute on a nice strike from Javier Morales. Things got a little feisty in the second-half after a scramble in Monterrey's goal. Jesus Zavala of Monterrey actually had his hands around the neck of Real's Alvaro Saborio and only received a yellow card! This should have been a red card.

The next leg is Wednesday April 27th at Real Salt Lake. The champion will be determined by most total goals scored over the two legs of the match. First tiebreaker is away goals and Real has two of those. So here are the possible title scenarios for next week's match:

Real wins: Real is champion

Monterrey wins: Monterrey is champion

Match ends in 0-0 or 1-1 draw: Real wins due to more away goals

Match ends in 3-3 or higher scoring draw: Monterrey wins due to more away goals

Match ends in 2-2 draw: match goes to extra time and then penalty shootout if still tied.

The league champion will qualify for the FIFA Club World Cup in December which features the winners of each continental confederation's club tournament. If Real Salt Lake wins they will become the very first MLS team to qualify for this prestigious tournament.

League Championship Predictions - 4/21

noreply@blogger.com (Bill Fish) — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 14:13:00 +0000

The "weekend" starts today in the Championship so here are my predictions for this round:

Ipswich Town 1 Norwich City 2
Coventry City 2 Scunthorpe United 1
Leeds United 2 Reading 2
Doncaster Rovers 2 Crystal Palace 1
Nottingham Forest 2 Leicester City 1
Portsmouth 1 Swansea City 1
Millwall 2 Preston North End 1
Hull City 1 Middlesbrough 1
Derby County 1 Burnley 1
Watford 2 Barnsley 1
Cardiff City 1 Queens Park Rangers 1
Sheffield United 1 Bristol City 2

QPR is in a position to clinch the title this weekend. Currently, Cardiff, Norwich and Reading are the only remaining teams that can catch them. If the results play out as projected above, Reading would be eliminated from the title hunt. A win by QPR eliminates both Cardiff and Reading and, potentially Norwich if they don't also win. If QPR loses, Cardiff and Norwich remain in the hunt. Reading would then have to defeat Leeds to keep their title hopes alive.