Websoulsurfer

Padre's Byrnes Trades 1B for Reliever

2012-01-07T18:07:00.000-08:00

Saturday January 7, 2012

So let me get this straight.

Padres GM Josh Byrnes trades away:

A 22 year old prospect that was a centerpiece of the trade that sent Adrian Gonzales to the Red Sox and who grades out as a future star (if not All Star) quality everyday position player who crushed at AAA at age 21 in 2011

For:

A 25 year old reliever with a history of shoulder problems?

WTF?

Byrnes has made the cardinal mistake of anointing a 25 year old prospect as the Padres starting 1B after a cup of coffee in Cincinnati (one of the best hitting parks in baseball) and sends away a young 1B who struggled when he was called up too early.

In his last trade, Byrnes traded away two prospects likely to make the White Sox staff in 2012 for a oft injured, defensive liability with mediocre power who is very expensive in Padres terms and who is a free agent after the 2012 season.

On a team that has has a very low payroll so has to live and die on locking up young players and keeping a deep pool of prospects, Byrnes has traded away his best young pitcher, his best position player prospect and two good pitching prospects and brought in only two injury prone players in Cashner and Quentin.

These last two trades would make sense only as the final pieces needed for a playoff run by a team full of proven talent. The Padres are far from full of proven talent.

Time will tell if the Padres can even make it out of last place in 2012, let alone contend.

I am starting to think that Byrnes is not such a smart general manager.

Padres GM Byrnes makes STUPID trade for Quentin

2011-12-31T16:49:00.000-08:00

San Diego Padres GM Josh Byrnes is out of his f'ing mind.

He has just made what may be the single worst trade in the history of the Padres franchise sending Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez to the Chicago White Sox for OF/DH Carlos Quentin.
Yes, that is a bold statement, but lets take a look at the facts of this trade.

What did the Padres give up?

Byrnes traded away two good young pitchers in Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez that will likely make the White Sox staff in 2012. If Castro is not in rotation in 2012, he will be in 2013 at the latest.

Castro was rated #2 or #3 in the Padres organization in both 2010 & 2011 (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels) and is widely thought of as a prospect with #2-#3 type starter potential at the major league level. Castro may not be top prospect in the PADRES incredibly deep system for 2012, but would rank in top 5 for White Sox today and will likely make the Sox staff by end of 2012. Castro could be a #2 - #3 starter on the Sox staff in 2013.

Hernandez is a 22 year old left handed control artist who had a decent chance of making the Padres pen at some point in 2012 and will likely break camp in the pen for the reliever deficient Sox.

How about Carlos Quentin?

Well Quentin is:

Extremely Injury Prone
(Quentin has NEVER played over 131 games & averaged 120 games over past 4 seasons)
A Low Average Hitter
(He hit .257 for the White Sox playing in one of best hitters parks in baseball. That translates to hitting .223 if he was a Padre over past 4 seasons.)
An All or Nothing Hitter
(17.4% strike outs vs just 7% walks but a .245 ISO)
A Free Agent at the end of the 2012 Season
Relatively Expensive
(Quentin will likely be paid $7-8 million in 2012. His 3rd & last year of arbitration)
An Absolute Butcher on Defense
(Quentin has been THE ABSOLUTE WORST DEFENSIVE OUTFIELDER in baseball with more than 2500 innings played over past 3 seasons.)

So Padres got a one year rental of a mediocre player for two good prospects who will likely contribute for White Sox at Major League level in 2012. Byrnes is obviously trying to make up for his mistake of sending a CHEAP Quentin away from Arizona years ago. In the process he makes a HUGE mistake trading FOR him now.

The Padres will not contend in 2012 and adding Quentin wont change that. Quentin will go away after 2012 since the Padres cant afford to keep an expensive DH. The $7-8 million Byrnes will have to spend on Quentin is ALOT of money for the low payroll Padres and it is being spent on as bad of a fit for that ballpark as you can possibly find.

WTF is Byrnes thinking.

I have had my say, now I would like to hear what YOU have to say about this trade.

- Web

Edit: Changed Byrnes to Quentin in appropriate places.

What the Changes in the MLB CBA Really Mean

2011-11-20T20:55:00.000-08:00

The Rich Get Richer

Bud Selig and the big market owners at MLB have put a hatchet in the back of the Small and Mid market teams with this new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The small market teams have been all but marginalized. They will no longer have any opportunity to compete under the new rules.

Changes in Arbitration Eligibility Rules

Players with less than three years of major league service will now have to have 2 years 86 days of service and be in the top 20% of the league in production. (Previously it was 17%)

All but the largest market teams will now hold their best prospects back to after the All Star break instead of early June to ensure they don’t get 86 days in that year.

Changes in Free Agency Compensation

Since they no longer lose a draft pick the rich will get richer. The Yankees, Red Sox, etc… can now sign Free Agents without losing anything unless the other team makes a $12 million offer to the FA.

It’s a crock. The old system didn’t work, but this is worse. Now small market teams are strictly farm clubs for the big market teams.

It marks the end of Tampa Bay’s ability to compete in the AL East. Once their current crop of players and prospects reach FA they will never compete again. IT ends ANY small markets teams possibility of contending. Under the old system at least you got something when you could no longer afford a free agent. Now you get nothing. Selig said bend over small market teams and take it like a Sandusky victim.

Changes in First Year Draft

More of the rich get ting richer.

Now teams that were horrible last year can no longer afford to pay big money for a great prospect (see Gerrit Cole) or they risk not being able to draft many players or have to pay a tax they can ill afford to pay for going over the line.

The Yankees, Red Sox, etc... can afford to pay a luxury tax, but if a team like the Pirates or the Rays want to pay big money for a couple of exceptional prospects, they risk not being to sign other prospects prospects down the line.

Selig has finally turned all small market teams into nothing more than glorified farm teams for the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Congratulations Bud. You have finally killed competition in the sport completely.

RIP MLB.

Out in Left Field

Padres make offer to Rafael Furcal

2011-11-16T20:25:00.000-08:00

Wednesday November 16, 2011

According to sources at the MLB General Managers meetings in Milwaukee, the San Diego Padres made a two offer to 34 year old former Dodgers and Cardinals shortstop Rafael Furcal. While the exact terms are not known, the offer was reportedly for 2 years/$15 million with an option year.

Furcal's agent, Paul Kinzer has been pretty firm about wanting 3 years, but will likely take two years with an option. Especially if it is an option with a vesting clause.

The Padres are one of 6 teams that have shown serious interest in Furcal.

Interesting move to say the least for a low budget team not expected to contend in 2012.

Closers that Blow Saves Suck

2011-11-14T12:04:00.000-08:00

The Definition of a Great Closer:

To be considered the best closer in the game of baseball
you need to do one simple thing,

Save the highest percentage of games.

It doesn't matter what the velocity is on your fastball.
It doesn't matter how many guys you strike out per nine innings.
It doesnt matter what your ERA or SIERA was.
It doesn't matter what your WHIP or FIP or WAR was.

The ONLY thing that matters
is that when you team has a lead in the 8th or 9th inning
that you keep the other team from scoring MORE runs than your lead
with the highest regularity.

THAT is the job of a closer.

With that in mind:
If you think Craig Kimbrel was Closer of the Year in the NL , you are a flipping idiot.

That piece of shit blew 8 games out of 54 attempts and 3 of his final 6 opportunities. Kimbrel is the singular reason his team, the Atlanta Braves, were not in the playoffs. 85% saves is simply not worth being in the conversation for NL Closer of the Year.

Marmol and Cordero are not even worth mentioning they were so bad at their job.

If you think ANYONE besides
Axford - 96%,
Putz - 92%,
Bell - 90%, or
Storen - 90%
is even in the conversation for best closer you are a moron. Plain and simple.

Those guys had the highest % of saves in the NL.

THAT singular thing is what makes them the best of 2011.

So bring it bitches. I want to hear what all you Kimbrel kiss asses have to say.

Out In Left Field

Another year, another change.

2011-11-12T14:57:00.000-08:00

Guest Post from The Hammer

Another year, another change.

The Padres rolled out their new uniforms yesterday and the first thought that came to mind was… why? Again? Why? Fans always complain that they don’t want to buy players jerseys because they don’t stay long, well why would anyone want to buy Padres jerseys if they are just going to become outdated sooner rather than later.

I understand the bring back the brown crowd and it appears that the Padres tried to give them something to chew on by bringing back the swinging friar, but he’s blue.

At first glance it appears to be much more like a Dodgers logo than a Padres logo.

The new baseball logo has a vintage feel to it, but it also has a Dodgers feel, as you can see here.

Personally, I care much more about the product on the field, but when it looks like we have become the Dodgers south, I take personal offense. Ownership wonders why the fan base is fickle, but this new ownership doesn’t understand that the changes they make continue to frustrate the fan base. This team lacks identity.

I know the Padres aren’t the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Cubs, or any other storied franchise, but forcing things down the fans throats they don’t want (insert Enberg jab here) is not going to help. I know that some people out there will always just put a smile on and write something positive, but screw that. The Padres marketing department has been a mess since this new regime took over, from awkward promo days, to being overly controlling with players, finally to a branding program that has changed direction at every turn.

This organization needs to stop pouring energy and resources into petty things like uniform changes and buying minor league teams and start putting a quality product on the field. In San Francisco it’s Halloween all year around, it’s ugly, but the team and the fans own it. It is their identity and the Giants show the fans they care about winning.

When Moorad comes out and tells fans that he is going to run this like a business, I respect that, but as a fan, I hate it. Changing uniforms looks like a money grab, taking the revenue sharing money and not applying it to payroll looks like a money grab, and trying to have the TV deal front loaded looks like a money grab. Money money money money

I can’t blame Jed for leaving; this was always a stepping stone job for him, similar to how Moorad used Arizona as a stepping stone and will eventually do the same our beloved Padres. It’s a shame that as fans we have to deal with someone more concerned with turning a profit than winning games.

Personally, I’m not a fan of the changes because as much as marketing would like to tell me they are part of Padres history, the brown was the part that fans wanted back. If this ownership wants to look like the Dodgers south, that is their right as an ownership group. I’ll try not to take it personal, after all, it’s just business.

The Hammer

Guest Writers @ Websoulsurfer

2011-11-12T14:45:00.000-08:00

Over the next month you will begin to see articles from several guest writers at Websoulsurfer.

Some talking about San Diego Padres baseball, some about MLB and some about other subjects near and dear to baseball fans.

Like me, these guys are looking for a place to express themselves without endangering their jobs.

They will be posting under pseudonyms - "The Hammer", Scouting America, Out in Left Field, and Your SABR Daddy may be a few of the names you see.

Enjoy.

Goose Gossage Award - Baseball Bloggers Alliance

2011-10-13T14:20:00.000-07:00

Thursday October 13, 2011

First I want to apologize for not posting much this season.

My new employment has kept me on the road much of the year wand watching minor league baseball instead of the 100+ major league games I have attended in years past.

Recently my employers have asked all of us to not blog until we had a new boss in place. While that is not completed yet, I did not want to let down the BBA by neglecting to vote for the Goose Gossage Award for the best reliever in the NL.

Without further ado my vote for the Best reliever in the NL goes to John Axford of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Not only did Axford lead the NL in saves and save percentage, he was also amongst the lowest in ERA, FIP and xFIP. His LOB% was the best amongst closers and his k/9 was near the top as well.

An honorable mention goes to Heath Bell of the San Diego Padres who has been arguably the best closer in baseball over the past three years leading in nearly every category.

In 2011 he performed exceptionally well recording 43 saves against just 5 blown saves while pitching for a team that gave him sporadic opportunities at best, often going 5 or more days between outings, and for a team was out of contention by the end of May. Those are tough conditions to battle for a closer.

J.J Putz made a complete u-turn in his career to record 45 saves for the Arizona Diamondbacks and desreves at least a mention here. Too many of his saves were 1 or 2 batters with a 3 run lead to merit real consideration as top reliever in the league. not enough high leverage situations.

According to the BBA rules I am supposed to grade these guys on a point system so here goes:
5 points - John Axford Milwaukee Brewers
3 points - Heath Bell - San Diego Padres
1 point - JJ Putz - Arizona Diamondbacks

If I was GM, what would I do to fix the Cubs?

2011-08-28T13:33:00.000-07:00

Sunday August 28, 2011

If I was GM, what would I do to fix the Cubs?

Right now, even though they have millions coming off the books for 2012, the Cubs are saddled with $86.6 million in contracts for 2012 for just 8 players (including Ramirez whose option will be picked up). $52 million of that money is for 3 decidedly mediocre players – Zambrano, Dempster and Soriano. 5 teams with better records than the Cubs spent less than that amount on their entire team in 2011.

With no changes the team will have a payroll of over $100 million after signing their arbitration eligible players or replacing them with league minimum salaries.

The team has no realistic shot at competing in 2012 without overspending in a sparse free agent landscape. Yes they could make a splash and spend $25+ million to sign Pujols or Fielder to a long term contract, but that would only be a PR move as one player cannot turn around either the win/loss or the culture of this organization.

So what would I do if I was the GM of the Cubs?

#1 – Create a long term plan for the organization

For years the Cubs have been flying by the seat of their pants with no real plan for the future. They have been relying on deep pockets and big revenue to pay exorbitant salaries to too many mediocre free agents. Its time to build from within for long term success.

#2 - Jettison Soriano & Zambrano - Some playoff bound team would like Soriano’s power bat off the bench and would give a 2^nd tier prospect for him. The Cubs would have to eat more than half his salary of $57 million over the next 3 years to get anything back, but this is a case of addition by subtraction and would be worth it. ($18 million per year plus $1 million per season of signing bonus)

Zambrano will be extremely difficult to deal and not only because of the $19 million he is owed in 2012. He is a cancer in the clubhouse and most teams are not willing to take on that kind of problem regardless of salary. I still believe the Cubs can dump him while paying a big chunk of his salary to take on an underperforming player from another team. Get it done NOW.

#3 – Hire more scouts. The Cubs have one of the smallest scouting departments in baseball. You cannot build a quality system that will consistently produce major league talent if you are not able to take a good look at the talent available.

#4 – Commit to getting younger

This is a very OLD team, one of the oldest in baseball. If not for the two kids in the middle infield, every starter in the field would be 32 or over. Here are a few suggestions.

A – Trade Carlos Pena, Marlon Byrd, Reed Johnson, John Grabow, Rodrigo Lopez and any other older moving parts that are not part of your plan for the immediate future.

B – Matt Garza is the youngest healthy starting pitcher (25 year old Andrew Cashner has been on the DL with rotator cuff issues since his 1^st start of the season) and there is little in terms of quality arms in the farm system that are even near ready to join the rotation. Sign Garza to a 3 year deal that buys out his 1^st year of Free agency.

Face the fact that Wells and Coleman are simply not good enough to run out there every 5^th day. Wells is regressing under the tutelage of Riggins. Coleman is a AAA pitcher with no upside.

Carpenter, McNutt, Dollis and Whiteknack are coming, but don’t expect much help from any of them until late next year. Trade away some veterans like Dempster, Lopez, Grabow and Zambrano (even if you eat most of his contract) to re-stock the farm.

C – Play Colvin, Campana (& LaHair once you trade Pena) daily for the rest of the season. Bring up Brett Jackson to start the 2012 season and bring in some mid level talent as place holders until Josh Vitters and the few other good position player prospects you have are ready. Use the money saved in scouting, International Free Agency and next season’s draft.

#5– Get a real closer. Marmol is not a closer and all his blown saves are disheartening for the team. Put him back in a setup role and find someone with heart. With Balls.

#7 – Quade, Riggins and Strode go at the end of the season. The culture within the Cubs team and organization as a whole is rotted to the core. Zambrano is a symptom of a more endemic sickness.

What is happening with the pitching on this team is a travesty. Riggins & the rest of the staff have ruined the confidence and mechanics of the younger pitchers. In fact Jaramillo may be the only member of the coaching staff I would keep.

#7 – Non Tender Hill and Baker – they are older, non performing but likely to get huge raises in their 3^rd year of arbitration. You can sign others at league minimum that can recreate their performance.

FA Salaries that are truly being shed

· Pena – $10,000,000

· Grabow - $4,800,000

· Wood - $1,500,000

· Johnson - $900,000

Arbitration Eligible Cubbies – Projected increase in salaries to sign = $8+ million

· Garza – made $5,950,000 and due a big raise in 3^rd year of eligibility – likely to $10 million

· Soto – made $3,000,000 and due a large raise in 3^rd year of eligibility – likely to $5 million

· Baker – made $1,175,000 and due a large raise in 3^rd year of eligibility – likely to $2+ million

· Hill – made $850,000 and due a large raise in 3^rd year of eligibility

· Dewitt – 1^st year of eligibility

· Wells - 1^st year of eligibility

How the Padres Blew Trade of Type A Free Agent Heath Bell

2011-08-06T23:05:00.000-07:00

Saturday August 6, 2011

How the Padres Blew Trade of Type A Free Agent Heath Bell

I keep hearing that the reasoning the Padres are giving for not trading Heath Bell is that they felt that they were not being offered two draft picks worth of prospects in return.

In my opinion, the Padres front office outsmarted themselves on not trading Bell for whatever they could get before the July 31^st trading deadline.

Three things the Padres brain trust should have kept in mind:

Draft picks in the 1^st and the supplemental round cost big money and are far from sure things. Less than 17% make it as regulars in the major leagues.
A team has already spent money on the prospects you were asking for in the draft and seen their progression. You would have had to ask for prospects FAR away from being ML ready.
Bell would have to refuse to accept arbitration for a place he LOVES to live and play And a place he had repeatedly said for more than a year that he would take a DISCOUNT to continue to play, in order for the Padres to get compensation for him signing elsewhere as a free agent .

What Could Have Been

If the Padres had been better at communicating with their star closer, Heath Bell would have likely returned to the Padres for 2012 as a Free Agent AT A DISCOUNT and, with the Padres holding a top ten place in the 2012 amateur draft, their draft pick in the first round would be protected.

What I am saying is the Padres could have had their cake and ate it too. Get the prospects for Bell NOW and resign him in 2012 at a discount and only have to give up a 2^nd round draft pick.

They were reportedly being offered a package by the Rangers that included the low ceiling, but high probability LHP Robbie Erlin and a lower level prospect at Myrtle Beach, either OF Travis Adair or SS Leury Garcia.

Scouts for the Rangers I spoke with in my travels said in the week prior to the deadline that “Robbie is going” in relation to a potential Bell trade.

What Happened

Instead the Padres got nothing for Bell and subsequent to the deadline saw Bell make a public pronouncement that he WOULD accept arbitration to continue playing in San Diego if the Padres offered, effectively minimizing his value in trade if the Padres attempted to trade him now.

For Bell this actually INCREASED his value in free agency if he chooses to sign elsewhere as:

Other teams know that the Padres would be foolish to offer him arbitration when faced with a probable salary for Bell of $12-$13 million (of a projected total payroll of $50-$55 million)
Other teams do not have to give up a draft pick to sign Bell if the Padres don’t offer arbitration.

Where this Leaves the Padres

The Padres front office, and Jed Hoyer in particular, have put themselves in a difficult position in regards to Bell when they went into trade season in the drivers seat.

They will likely have to trade Bell before the end of August basically for whatever they are offered or let him walk after the season with no compensation. They have left themselves in a position where they no leverage.

The Padres would have then set themselves up to get a 2nd package of prospects for Mike Adams.

The Padres front office have completely blown the trade of Heath Bell.

Padres return for Adams or Bell?

2011-07-16T21:48:00.000-07:00

Saturday July 16, 2011

Greetings from beautiful Port Charlotte Florida, home of the Stone Crabs.

I have spent the past two days watching the Treshers with several Padres scouts & the Phillies general manager also in attendance. Taking a look at the players the Padres would likely be getting in return for Heath Bell (or Mike Adams) and Ryan Ludwick if Hoyer & Amaro pull the trigger on a trade.

The scuttlebutt is that if the Padres are willing to pick up a major portion, maybe as much as $4 million, of Bell and Ludwick's $7 million in combined remaining salaries this season that the Padres will receive one of the following top prospects -Brody Colvin, Julio Rodriguez or Trevor May - and 2-3 other players.that would include one of Jonathan Singleton or Sebastian Valle and at least one other lower level prospect.

Sounds like a huge haul and it is, but the Padres would be sending one of, if not THE, best closers in baseball and a valuable RHB that would hit much better than his current .240 in Citizens Bank Park along with a huge chunk of cash. When you consider the value of a World Series run, it is an entirely reasonable trade.

Monday and Tuesday of next week I will be spending time in Myrtle Beach before flying to Texas for the weekend. Hope to get to see starting pitchers Robbie Ross or Miguel De Los Santos and OF Travis Adair play for the Pelicans. Another player I had wanted to see, Mike Olt, is on the DL. They are all potential pieces in a trade for Bell or Adams by the Rangers.

Once I get to Frisco I am hoping to see Robbie Erlin pitch. He is the piece I would most like to see coming back the Padres way in a trade for Bell from the Rangers system.

I am afraid that by the time I get to Frisco the Padres will have pulled the trigger on a trade, possibly two.

Even if the trades are made prior to my getting to Texas its going to be a busy, exciting week of minor league baseball.

Why is Venable starting?

2011-06-28T20:38:00.000-07:00

Tuesday June 28, 2011

Why is Will Venable starting games? Are the Padres "showcasing" him so they can trade him? Entice teams with a tantalizing short burst of play over mediocrity from Venable?

Padres fans have ample evidence over the past 3 years that Venable cannot sustain any kind of over average performance and are resigned oto seeing only flashes of brilliance reminiscent of Ruben Rivera.

Chris Denorfia is doing everything right. He is hitting over .300 including an incredible .289 at Petco, hitting for power - .451 slg, and playing good defense.What else does he need to do to be an everyday starter? I guess what he has to do is have flashes of great play.

Oh wait, Deno has had CONSISTENT great play.

The only explanation is that the Padres just don't care about winning right now and only want to see if they can get something for Venable when they include him in one of the inevitable trades the team will make before July 31st.

So why should fans care?

Introducing your 2012 San Diego Padres!

2011-06-27T22:32:00.000-07:00

Monday June 27, 2011

Introducing your 2012 San Diego Padres!

A week ago I wrote that trade winds were whipping up in San Diego. Well, GALE force winds are blowing in San Diego today. The Padres have gone 10-14 for the month of June, including a 6 game losing streak from the 14^th to 20^th, and after starting out 24-31 their recent play has sealed the fate of many of the veteran player on the team. Most of the veteran players brought in during the 2^nd half of 2010 and in the offseason will be blown right out of town.

With the Padres 11 games under .500 and 10.5 games back in the NL West, it’s a foregone conclusion that 2012 free agents Heath Bell and Ryan Ludwick will be gone before the trading deadline and probably much sooner. Possibly as soon as June 30^th?

The fact is that players like Bell and Ludwick that are free agents after the season are worth more in trade the longer their new team gets to use their services after the trade. Hoyer is no dummy. They will both be gone before the All Star break.

Reliever Chad Qualls, Brad Hawpe, Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett, and Aaron Harang all have big dollar options or guaranteed salaries for 2012 ($6 million option, $6 million option, $5.5 million salary, $5.5 million salary, and $5 million option respectively) and the Padres have serviceable, if not good, internal options. Those Padres players have a heavy tail wind blowing them out of town as well.

So what WILL the 2012 Padres look like?

I am not sure who will be coming back as part of the trades that will probably blow 5-6 veteran players out of San Diego over the next month, but I can make an educated guess as to who may be called up or be moved into the position from the Padres bench.

Heath Bell with Mike Adams – Adams is arbitration eligible but has been groomed as Bell’s replacement and will make much less than the $7++ million Bell would command in free agency.
Ryan Ludwick with Chris Denorfia – Deno has been the only consistent performer in the outfield and deserves a full time spot, at least for the rest of the 2011 season. Venable takes over RF, Maybin in CF and Deno in LF with Kyle Blanks being called up.
Chad Qualls with Luis Perdomo, Even Scribner or Brad Brach – Bullpen is an area the Padres are deep in and can replace Qualls with relative ease, either in the trade or from the farm.
Brad Hawpe has already been replaced with Anthony Rizzo. If he returns from the DL before July 31^st, a bag of balls or a rosin bag would be a positive replacement.
Orlando Hudson with Logan Forsythe – Forsythe did not hit well in his first appearances with San Diego, but is still the only serviceable internal candidate at 2^nd base for the remainder of 2011.
Jason Bartlett with Everth Cabrera – the 24 year old Cabrera has returned from his injury for AAA Tucson and played extremely well hitting .296/.359 with 13 sb in 31 games. He is the heir apparent at SS.
Aaron Harang with Cory Luebke, Wade LeBlanc, Anthony Bass or Casey Kelly or any number of good young arms.

Predicting the 2012 roster is a little more of a crapshoot at this point, but you can count on it being young. Predicting the return the Padres may get on the veterans they ship out is also a crapshoot, but I will give it a shot.

Padres Return On Investment

Bell is a highly valuable commodity and will likely get a top 20 type prospect from the Rangers, Phillies, Cardinals, or whoever else gets in the bidding. Possibly Roman Mendez or possibly even Neil Ramirez from the Rangers if the Padres eat a little salary. Phillipe Aumont + a second lower level prospect or possibly even JC Ramirez from the Phillies. Rasmus’ name has been bandied about from the Cardinals.
Ludwick is having a real good year away from the unfriendly confines of Petco with a 114 OPS+. He will bring back a decent prospect in return. Seattle has reportedly offered a middle infield prospect. Could it possibly be Carlos Triunfel? His stock has dropped tremendously, but he still has tremendous tools. The Phillies have also reportedly offered a good OF prospect. A power hitting prospect that is very raw and still in high A, but undoubtedly a good prospect.
Qualls is in a rebound year that is at least in part attributable to the Petco effect. His ERA away is a pedestrian 3.93. He will not bring back a great prospect, but even a mid-level prospect while not having to pay the cost of buying out his option year is worth trading him.
Hawpe will only be valuable to an AL team that has a short RF porch so don’t expect much. Maybe a low level prospect from the Orioles or Yankees.
Hudson is on a down year punctuated with injuries and he has an $8 million option for 2013, so he may be the only player the Padres are unable to move. Which is ok by me. Unless they get a middle infielder that is major league ready for Bell or Ludwick, chances are the Padres best replacement for Hudson is Logan Forsythe. Not good enough right now. Plus Hudson plays decent defense and provides veteran leadership and a motor mouth that is fun.
Bartlett is having a decent, but not good year and may prove difficult to move as well. I think teams will be more willing to part with a decent prospect for the 31 yr old Bartlett than the 33 yr old Hudson.
Harang is an interesting case. We all knew his era would go down coming to Petco, what was not expected was that he would be going an average of 6.2 innings per start and would have a 7-2 record after 13 starts. With only a $5 million option year, the Padres may just hang onto Harang for 2012. But then I said that about Garland after last season.

I can’t guess at this point about what players the Padres will sign in the offseason, so here goes nothing.

Your 2012 San Diego Padres

Starting 8 1/2

1B – Anthony Rizzo – 22 (or Kyle Blanks) – Rizzo will be given every chance to hold onto the job for the rest of the 2011 season. If he can rebound to hit even .220-.230 he will likely be the opening day starter at 1B

2B – Orlando Hudson – 34 – I think he is close to untradeable and will return in 2012.

SS – Everth Cabrera – 25 – the 2^nd coming of the talented young SS.

3B – Chase Headley – 27 – hitting .300 while playing half your games in Petco is impressive even if you aren’t hitting many home runs.

LF – Kyle Blanks – 25 – Blanks is really a 1B, but if Rizzo wins the job the Padres will be forced to play the talented and powerful young man in LF again in 2012.

CF – Cameron Maybin – 26 – Great defense. Mediocre bat. Occasional power. Perfect fit for Padres.

RF – Will Venable - 29/Chris Denorfia – 31 -

C – Nick Hundley – 27 – With no other real options, Hundley will once again be the number one catcher on the Padres squad.

Bench

OF - Venable or Denorfia

MI – ?? I just know that Alberto Gonzalez will not be back. Possibly Jarrett Hoffpauir - 28

IF – Logan Forsythe – 22 or possibly Vince Belnome – 24 – who has been tearing it up with the bat in AA

UT – Guzman – 27 – Good bat, bad defense. Will back up 1B and OF and mostly be a bat off the bench.

C – Another veteran schmoe like Rob Johnson, but probably a different schmoe

Starting Rotation

Mat Latos

Clayton Richard

Tim Stauffer

Dustin Moseley

Wade LeBlanc/Cory Luebke/Casey Kelly/Anthony Bass

Bullpen

CL – Mike Adams – 31- Closer in waiting

SU – Luke Gregerson – 29 -

SU – Ernesto Frieri - 26

Loogy – Joe Thatcher - 30

MR – Luis Perdomo

MR – Evan Scribner/Josh Spence/Brad Brach

LR – Luebke/LeBlanc

Trade winds begin to blow through San Diego

2011-06-20T21:57:00.000-07:00

Monday June 20, 2011

The Padres get swept by the sad sack Twins & talk of Padres players finding homes in new cities in the next month has turned from an if to a when.

Padres closer Heath Bell and his $7 million salary is a certainty to be moved.

Chad Qualls and his $6 million 2012 option are another certainty to be moved.

Ryan Ludwick is making nearly $7 million and will be a free agent after the season. Waive buh bye to him in the coming weeks also.

Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett are also likely gone with salaries that total $14.5 million in 2012.

Brad Hawpe and his $6 million option for 2012 WOULD be a certainty to be traded, but the Padres would likely have to pay his option buy out of $1 million to get someone to take the bum off the Padres hands.

So ...

Ludwick to the Phillies, Braves, Mariners or maybe the Tigers

Bell to Cardinals, Rangers or ??

Qualls to Rays, Yankees, Rangers or Cardinals.

Harang to the Cubs, Tigers or ??

Bartlett to Red Sox

Hudson to ??

Hawpe to AAA. Ok, maybe the Angels would take a flyer on him for a PTBNL or a little better if Padres pick up buyout. Maybe the Orioles. D Lee is not exactly tearing it up there and the ballpark is built for Hawpe's swing.

Adams likely will stay a Padre because even a win in arbitration will likely not net him more than $4 million for 2012 and that is a cheap price for the closer he would become in Bell's absence.

Now the question becomes, what will the Padres get in return for the 5-6 veteran players that will likely be traded away in the coming weeks.

What do you think Padres fans? Who will go and what will the Padres get in return. Will it be enough to help make the Padres a contender in the next few years?

Worst Stat Ever?

2011-05-08T13:32:00.000-07:00

Sunday May 8, 2011

Happy Mothers Day!

In keeping with my "worst" theme, I want to talk about what is possibly the worst measure of a players performance.

Win-Loss for Starting pitchers. Really pitchers of any kind.

Want to know just how ridiculous it is to even attempt to use won-loss as a stat to measure the performance of a starting pitcher?

The San Diego Padres starting pitchers have 21 quality starts in 33 games, but just 6 wins. That means that in 21 games the Padres starting pitcher has gone 6 innings while giving up 3 runs or less, but have recorded a win in just 6 of those games.

Tim Stauffer has a 1.38 ERA in his last 4 games giving up just 4 runs in 26.1 IP (and a 2.61 ERA in his 7 starts this season) but has no wins to show for it.

Prior to last nights game Dustin Moseley had an ERA of 1.63 having giving up just 7 earned runs, but had only 1 win in those 6 starts. The Padres have been SHUTOUT in 4 of his 7 starts.

And somehow wins and losses are supposed to represent the performance of these two Padres pitchers? NOT!

These two guys, and the Padres pitching staff as a whole, have been lights out.

The defense, while not as good as last years version, is ranked 10th in baseball in UZR and 7th in DRS.

The OFFENSE for the Padres has been, well, offensive. Even the Petco factor cannot explain how poorly they have done. Many games have featured four or five players hitting under .200 in the starting lineup simultaneously. The Padres are leading MLB in being shutout with 8 and they have the worst batting average with runners in scoring position in this century - by FOURTY (40) points.

So when talking about pitchers performance lets just completely eliminate wins and losses. The wins & losses recorded by these Padres pitchers have had absolutely no relation with their performance on the mound. Those losses are the result of an unprecedented lack of hitting by the Padres team as a whole.

So from now on,

If you want to mention ERA - OK

If you want to mention WHIP - OK

If you want to mention FIP, xFIP, or tERA (my current favorite) - OK
If you want to mention BABIP, K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 - OK

Just do not even bring up Wins & Losses.

Worst and Worser

2011-05-06T20:51:00.000-07:00

Friday May 6, 2011

Yesterday I gave you the bad news and it got worse for the Padres since I posted that piece.

The Padres "best" hitter on the season so far, catcher Nick Hundley, was placed on the the 15 day DL with a strained oblique muscle.

Just two days ago the 2nd best hitter on the team so far this season, 2B Orlando Hudson, who was hitting a robust .245 at the time, was placed on the 15 day DL with a hamstring strain in his right leg.

Hundley was hitting above his career average so regression towards the mean would indicate his batting average will drop when he returns.

Hudson was below his career average & 23 points below his 2010 average so will likely improve only slightly when he returns but with less speed due to the hamstring injury. Less speed means even less XBH on a team that is sorely lacking in xbh.

Brad Hawpe is hitting just about what he did with Tampa Bay, so unless the Padres suddenly start playing their home games in Coors Field, don't expect much improvement from him. His 23k vs 4 bb is an excellent indicator of how lost he is at the plate.

Ryan Ludwick has shown some signs of life recently, but since he is currently hitting at almost exactly the same pace as his stint with the Padres in 2010, I am not holding out much hope there either.

The only true hope of improvement I see is in Will Venable who has shown absolutely no extra base power in 2011 after 13 hr & 31 xbh in 392 abs in 2010 and is hitting more than 50 points lower than both his career and 2010 batting average.

The Padres offense has regressed substantially in the past 3 days and any more injuries will simply compound an already critical problem.

Things are the worst I have ever seen offensively and getting worser.

Sad Sack San Diego Padres of 2011

2011-05-05T21:50:00.000-07:00

Thursday May 5, 2011

When you lose two of three to the lowly Pittsburg Pirates and the player leading your team in RBI and hitting 3rd in the lineup is batting just .215, you know your team is not destined for great things.

Padres LF Ryan Ludwick on the season

When your team is getting .190/.285 from the leadoff spot you know you aren't scoring many runs, because, well, nobody is ever frickin' on base to be driven in.

When your 1st basemen are hitting a combined .165/.214 with a slugging percentage normally reserved for light hitting middle infielders, you know you are not knocking in many runs.

2011 Batting Average of Padres 1B

That would be the 2011 version of the San Diego Padres.

Right now the Padres are in competition for the #1 overall pick in the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft with only 12 wins against 19 losses. They are currently tied for last place in the NL. These Padres have the WORST home win percentage in baseball.

Not what fans expected after a 90 win season in 2010 and not what most people would expect today with a pitching staff with an ERA under THREE with 20 Quality Starts in 31 Games (tied for 3rd best in baseball).

MLB 2011 Team Pitching Stats

Its time for the Padres brass to either jettison the overpaid, under-performing veterans and simply play the kids that will be the future of the team or pay the price in prospects and dinero to pick up a couple of guys that can actually HIT the ball. If they don't act pretty quick, the 2011 season can be effectively considered over and May is only 5 days old.

What a sad state of affairs in Padredom.

Happy Cinco De Mayo.

9th game & its time for Padres to sit Hawpe

2011-04-11T20:05:00.000-07:00

Monday April 11, 2011

On the day I paid $4.11 for gas, I came to the realization watching Hawpe fail miserably to get a hit in the 1st inning of the Padres vs Reds that even though its only the 9th game of the season, its time for the Padres to sit Brad Hawpe.

His herky jerky movements at the plate testify to a lack of confidence that is making it impossible for him to hit consistently. If you watch video from earlier in his career when he was hitting decently, he had much less movement of his bat and body at the plate. Now he looks like he is dancing up there never coming set before swinging the bat.

So its time he took a seat and Black brought in someone else to play. 1B. Cantu is not an improvement or he would already be manning 1B. Maybe its time to give Rizzo or Clark a shot. They can't do much worse than .174

Ludwick picking up where he left off in 2010

2011-04-10T16:00:00.000-07:00

Sunday April 10, 2011

Well, Ludwick is who we thought he was at the end of last season - a terrible Padres hitter.

So far he is hitting just .120 as a Padre in 2011 with just 3 hits in 25 abs. Granted 1 of the 3 was a home run, but even if all 3 were home runs, 3 for 25 just will not cut it.

Worse yet, he is not even getting good wood on the ball. Most of his 9 FB were pop ups, 2 in the infield and 3 foul. All of his ground balls were for outs. The ONLY ball he has struck well was his home run today.

Don't get me wrong, Ludwick is not the only Padre starter we were counting on to hit the ball well that is sucking wind. Will Venable is hitting just .120 as well and looks completely lost at the plate. Bartlett is hitting under .150. Hawpe is hitting just .174 with 9 SO against just 1 BB in 23 AB.

Now the Good news in terms of Padres hitting:
Nick Hundley has come of age. After today he is hitting .445 with 2 home runs and 5 XBH in his 11 hits.
Orlando Hudson is his consistent self, hitting .286 after 8 games.
Chase Headley was hitting .280 going into today's game.
Cameron Maybin is hitting .276 and showing some power with 4 XBH in his 8 hits.

The REAL good news? Its only 8 games. So while I am bitchin' about Ludwick, Venable, Hawpe and Bartlett's production so far, I realize we have 154 games, 95% of the season, to go.

Amazing how much one trade & one DL trip effects roster

2011-03-28T21:32:00.000-07:00

Monday March 28, 2011

Its amazing how much one trade and one trip to the DL can effect the opening day roster. And all in the space of 18 hours.

As widely anticipated, or at least bandied about, the Padres traded for utility man Alberto Gonzalez today. When Gonzalez joins the team, Everth Cabrera was optioned to AAA Tucson where he can play every day.. I was told at the game today that the Padres still consider Cabrera a front runner to be the SS of the future and they preferred that he have an opportunity to play every day at one position instead of backing up SS and 2B.

The Padres also placed Mat Latos on the DL retroactive to 3/22, meaning he is eligible to come off the DL on 4/6.

This caused a flurry of moves. Wade Leblanc was optioned to AAA camp so he could make a start with the AAA squad in camp and a simulated start in preparation for his 4/12 start against the Cincinnati Reds.

Because they cannot count on the innings Latos would have eaten and because there are 3 days off in first 8 days of the season, the Padres made a decision to go with 4 starters and 8 relievers. Moseley will make a start or possibly more in the absence of Latos in the rotation. Corey Luebke was added to 25 roster as the LH specialist and long reliever.Ernesto Frieri was kept on the active roster and Luis Perdomo will be added to the bullpen to start the season.

Did I miss anything?

I'm sure one of you will be glad to tell me if I missed anything.

1 year and 341,700 Frequent Flyer Miles Later

2011-03-27T18:56:00.000-07:00

March 27, 2011

It has been an interesting, fast paced and hectic year in the Web Soulsurfer household.

I have logged 341,700 frequent flyer miles and more than 200 days away from home since March 31st of 2010.

I have met many incredible people, worked with some great clients and charities and visited some wonderful places. I have seen baseball games in 7 countries (actually 6 since Puerto Rico is a territory of the US, but don't tell them that).

But, and its a big but, I am exhausted and I miss my wife and home. Obviously I have not posted near as much on this blog and on the boards I have been so active on in the past.

I am nearing 50 (AARP is on my tail to sign up by my birthday in June) and I need to slow down and enjoy my life with my devoted and loving wife instead of jetting around the country and living in hotel rooms. Towards that end I have sold my interest in the sports/charity marketing business I have been involved with and will be relocating to new digs in a new city within the next month.

While I will be attending the Padres opening series of the season in St Louis, for the first time in 26 years I will likely not be able to make the Padres home opener as I take care of the last of my duties and transfer the company over to the new teams my (ex)business partner has hired to fill my duties.

Yes they are replacing me with two teams of 2 people each. Tells you how much work I have been doing when they have to bring in two teams to take my place.

There will still be a Websoulsurfer the blog and I may even post more often as I did in years past, but it will be from afar as I will be living in a AAA city of the West.

I do hope you will continue to read the blog and maybe even enjoy it more as it starts to be a more regular part of my life.

Just for shits and grins I may just publish the many (about 40) articles I have started (and never completed) writing in airports and hotel rooms over the past year even though they are dated and sometimes just plain wrong. But then being wrong never stopped me from posting before...

Best regards,

- Web

Your 2011 San Diego Padres Opening Day Edition - (Updated 3/28)

2011-03-27T18:28:00.000-07:00

March 27, 2011

The San Diego Padres Roster to OPEN the 2011 season

Update 3/28 - Sorry this took so long, but spent morning on plane (what, me on a plane) and then had game to attend.

In an anticipated move, the Padres traded minor league starter Erik Davis to the Washington Nationals for utility man Alberto Gonzale.

To make room for Gonzalez, Everth Cabrera was optioned to AAA Tucson.

The Padres decided they prefer to have Aaron Cunningham play every day instead of as a 5th outfielder so Cedric hunter, who had a phenomenal spring, got the call to fill that spot.

Wade LeBlanc was optioned to minor league camp and will make two starts start there in preparation for 4/12 call up to face Reds as Padres #5 starter.

Mat Latos, Eric Patterson, Jarrett Hoffpauir, Joe Thatcher and Kyle Blanks were placed on the 15 day DL. Latos, Patterson and Hoffpauir are eligible to return 4/6. Thatcher and Blanks when healthy.

Corey Luebke will fill the left handed specialist/long reliever spot in the bullpen until Thatcher returns or LeBlanc is called up. (Whichever comes first)

Ernesto Frieri and Luis Perdomo also will make the staff, at least until Latos, Thatcher come off DL and LeBlanc is called up to make his 4/12 start.

Dustin Moseley will get the start(s) in Latos absence.

This is a preliminary roster depending on if the Padres make a last minute trade. The roster WILL change within 10 days of opening day as LeBlanc will move from being the lefty out of the pen to the starting rotation for a game against the Reds on April 12th. Likely changes will be made on the 7th or 8th of April.

Starting 8

1B – Brad Hawpe

2B – Orlando Hudson

3b – Chase Headley

SS – Jason Bartlett

LF – Ryan Ludwick

CF – Cameron Maybin

RF – Will Venable

C – Nick Hundley

Bench

OF – Chris Denorfia

OF/Util – Aaron Cunningham – (Patterson will start season on DL)

MI – Everth Cabrera (3/28- Alberto Gonzalez)

Util – Jorge Cantu

~~MI - Jarrett Hoffpauir~~ (3/28- Placed on DL)

C – Rob Johnson

Batting Order on Opening Day

Facing Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals

Leading off – Will Venable (LHB) - RF

Batting 2^nd – Jason Bartlett (RHB)– SS

Batting 3^rd – Orlando Hudson (SW) – 2B

Batting 4^th – Brad Hawpe (LHB) – 1B

Batting 5^th – Ryan Ludwick (RHB)– LF (moving back to his natural position)

Batting 6^th – Chase Headley (SW) – 3B

Batting 7^th - Nick Hundley (RHB) – C

Batting 8^th – Cameron Maybin (RHB) – CF

4^th and 5^th will swap depending on RHP or LHP

Starting Rotation

Tim Stauffer - RHP

Aaron Harang - RHP

Clayton Richard - LHP

Mat Latos - RHP (3/28 - Placed on DL retroactive to 3/22)

Wade LeBlanc - RHP (may start in bullpen as his first start will be April 12th vs Reds)
(3/28 - Leblanc optioned to minor league camp until 4/12 start)

Bullpen

Cl - Heath Bell - RHP

SU - Mike Adams - RHP

SU - Luke Gregerson - RHP

MR - Pat Neshek - RHP

MR - Chad Qualls - RHP

LR - Dustin Moseley - RHP - (Moseley will get start(s) in Latos absence)
LR - Corey Luebke - LHP
LR - Luis Perdomo - RHP
MR - Ernesto Frieri - RHP

Joe Thatcher will start the season on the DL

Ernesto Frieri has options so he will start the season in AAA

The Padres will start the season with only 11 pitchers until LeBlanc has to prepare for his start or about April 8th. Likely Thatcher will come off the DL if he is ready and Cunningham or Hoffpauir would be sent down. If not Frieri or southpaw Luebke could be called up.

Signing Albert Pujols @ 10 yrs/$300 million = Suicide: Baseball Style

2011-02-16T19:51:00.000-08:00

Wednesday February 15, 2011

Signing Albert Pujols to a $30 million per year contract
would be franchise suicide for the St Louis Cardinals.

Albert Pujols vs San Diego Padres

If the the St Louis Cardinals give in to Pujols (and many the fans and members of the media) demands for $30 million and 10 seasons, they will be effectively committing franchise suicide.

Why? Let me enumerate:
#1 - Even though he is Pujols, the best player in baseball, he is still human. His performance WILL decline. Possibly every year from this point forward, but certainly dramatically before a 10 year contract even reaches its half way point.

Will he be worth even 10 million per season when he is hitting 50-60 points lower and less than half the home runs at ages 37- 42? That was pretty close to the average drop from the peak performance ages of 26-28 prior to the steroid era.Yes .280-.290 with 15-20 hrs is still valuable, but 6 years of that production for $30 million per season? That would cripple even the Yankees.

#2 - Since the advent of free agency, no team has won the world series while having one player make 15% or more or its payroll. No team has MADE it to the World Series with one player making 20% or more of its payroll.

The Cardinals largest payroll ever was $99 million in 2008 and it was $94 million in 2010. At a payroll equaling their largest in franchise history, Pujols contract would account for over 30% per season. Even if they increased payrol by an astonishing 25% from 2010 levels to $117.5 million, Pujols salary would make account for 25.5% of the payroll with Halliday making up an additional 14.5%. So even with a 25% bump in total payroll, that is 40% in TWO players.

That is simply untenable. It would retard their ability to sign enough talent (internal - arbitration eligible, and external - free agents) to make them competitive AND cripple their ability to sign top prospects in the draft & international free agency. The Cardinals simply would not have the payroll flexibility to go out and get free agents to fill holes, sign their other good players to long term deals or build their farm system through the draft & international free agent signings.

#3 - Players get hurt. Even Albert Pujols gets hurt. See 2006 and 2008. As they get older, players get hurt more often.

When you are paying one player 20-30% of your total payroll you cannot afford for them to get hurt. You simply cannot afford to keep a good backup on the roster, so some replacement level schmuck will be taking the field if your superstar is out with an injury.

Holliday's $17 million contract was at the fringes of what a team like St Louis can afford and still stay competitive. If they sign Pujols to a $30 million per year contract regardless of length, they will be committing $47 million per season to 2 players. Nearly 50% of total payroll at 2010 levels or 40% IF they bump total payroll up by 25%. And that is a HUGE IF..

As it is the Cardinals have $33 million committed to those two in 2011. Another $49+ million is committed to 7 members of the 12 man pitching staff in 2011. $82 million overall for 9 players out of a projected $104 million payroll in 2011..

As it is they have no room for error. No room for injuries. No room for an off year. Everyone must compete at their peak and stay healthy for the Cardinals to have any hope of competing in the NL Central.

In 2012 the Cardinals currently have $63.3 committed to 7 players. Add Pujols is at $30 million and they are over their 2010 payroll before putting another player on the field.

At a $100 million payroll in 2012, Cardinals would only have about $6.67 million to spend on 17 players. That is just slightly less than the current major league minimum. 17*$410k = $6.970 million

Even IF they bump the payroll 25%, they still would only have $23.67 million to sign 17 players. Hardly a way to build a powerhouse club worthy of having an Albert Pujols on it.

Thank you Trevor!

2011-01-31T21:08:00.000-08:00

Monday January 31, 2011

I had to wait to write this column about Trevor Hoffman's retirement until I wasn't so emotional. The problem is every time I saw the man play it was an emotional experience. Those emotions are indelibly etched in my memory and its near impossible to talk (or type) about Trevor Hoffman without replaying in my mind so many thrilling moments and a very few deflating moments I experienced while watching him pitch.

Its hard to explain to non San Diegans how emotional it was to experience Trevor Time.

The lights dimming in the stadium, the crowd coming to their feet as if drawn up by some invisible force, the strains of Hells Bells starting, the roar as one of the crowd as he began his jog from the bullpen, the signs flashing Trevor Time ...

It was an all encompassing emotional experience whether he saved the game or, god forbid, he blew the save and the Padres lost. It was elation or devastation. No in between. No "well its just another game". And it was a shared emotion. 30-40-even 60+ thousand other people were feeling the same way.

You could tell they felt the same as I did. You could see it in their faces, hear it in their voices and feel it hanging palpably in the post event air.

Watching Trevor pitch was emotional and that is how I have been since hearing of his retirement.

So now that some time has passed I wanted to express my heartfelt gratitude that I had the opportunity to watch this man play the game of baseball.

I experienced much joy and a little devastation watching him play.

The joy of watching Trevor close the game to give the Padres the Padres NL title in Atlanta in 1998. The joy of watching Trevor notch his 300th save, 400th save, 479th save and 500th save. All in a Padres uniform.

The devastation of watching Trevor blow the save in game 162 to the junior Gwynn. Then watching him blow his 2nd straight save to the Rockies (No, Holliday never touched the plate, but that is another story).

Over the years the elation far exceeded the downs as Trevor saved 89% of the games he came into with a save on the line.

Mariano Rivera may eventually pass Trevor for the most saves, but no one will ever pass Trevor for the excitement he brought to Padres fans. No one will ever be the first to record 500 and then 600 saves. There is also a good chance that no one will ever have 9 seasons of 40 or more saves or 14 seasons of 30 or more saves.

If not for the 2003 season lost to injury, there would be no serious argument or doubt that Trevor was the best ever as he would likely be an unsurmountable 80 ++ saves ahead of Rivera and undoubtedly would have recorded 15 straight seasons with 30 or more saves.

Regardless of any debate, in my heart and mind Trevor Hoffman will remain the greatest reliever I have seen pitch since Goose Gossage retired and arguably the greatest closer ever.

Thank you Trevor for all you did to make the game more enjoyable for me and for baseball fans everywhere.

- Web

What does Bartlett & Hudson contracts mean for Bell?

2011-01-10T20:26:00.000-08:00

Monday January 10, 2011

If the multi-year contracts of Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett are any indication, Jed Hoyer is putting together a Padres team for a 2 year run at the playoffs. That would be a real good sign for Heath Bell signing a multi-year contract too.

Bell is reportedly asking for a 3 year deal in the $20-21 million range. Like the contracts for Hudson and Bartlett that deal would probably be structured as a 2 year deal with a mutual option or vesting option for a 3rd year.

If the Padres can get Bell to agree to a below market 1st year as they did with Bartlett and Hudson, then the Padres would have further payroll flexibility to go out and spend on another starter or left handed bat off the bench or whatever Hoyer feels the team needs.

Even at the $7 million he is expected to receive in arbitration, Bell is a good value.

For the past two seasons Bell has been an elite closer recording the most saves in baseball. His FIP is the lowest in the game amongst relievers with 120+ IP over that period, his xFIP & ERA are 5th in baseball and only Carlos Marmol gave up less HR per 9.

In 2010 Bell gave up just 1 home run in 70+ innings. He had a 2.05 FIP and a 1.93 ERA. In other words his ballpark & defense had little effect on his effectiveness as a pitcher.

Keeping Bell in the fold for 2 years gives the young pitchers on the staff an incredible boost of confidence. They don't HAVE to go 9 perfect innings to win the game. All they have to do is give 6-7 good innings every time out and the bullpen will do the rest.

Bell could probably be signed for a similar amount to the contracts we are seeing handed out for setup men.

Comparatively Bell is a bargain.

Add to that the fact that if the Padres do sign Bell to a team friendly multi-year deal that is being tossed around (3yrs/$20-$21 million) it actually makes him MORE valuable as a trade piece at the deadline if the Padres are not in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Signing Bell, an elite closer, to a multi-year deal is a no lose proposition for the Padres.