PLFantasy

Expected goals plus-minus

2020-12-04T23:24:00.032-05:00

As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below:

1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst. Even more confusing is that most sites (though not all) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reality Leeds are indeed a somewhat weak defensive team (14.8 xGC, ranked 16th) but have shown an excellent attacking threat to date (17.1 xG, ranked 2nd).

2. A second issue is that teams have obviously not faced the same opponents to date so teasing out a team's ability from that of their fixtures is difficult. This is particularly true when deciding whether a team is improving or declining (or whether they are staying the same but their opponents strength is the true variable).

Something I want to try and play with is a small part of data I used to embed in my larger model, something we'll call plus-minus (or +/-). What we're basically calculating here is how well a team does against an opponent in comparison to how that team has fared against everyone else.

So, if in a three game span Chelsea surrender 0.6 xGC, 1.3 xGC and then 1.8 xGC you might conclude they are a little inconsistent and their 1.23 xGC per game would likely leave them in the middle of the pack. You might be able to mentally adjust for the context of their opponents of course, so if they've faced top opponents you give them the benefit of the doubt, but this then becomes a lot things to juggle in your mind. If however, we knew that those three opponents scored, on average, 1.2 xG, 1.5 xG, and 2.5 xG respectively then we can see that Chelsea well out performed expectations and "conceded" 1.5 less expected goals than the league has typically been conceding in these fixtures. This would lead one to conclude Chelsea are an elite defensive side and perhaps worthy of extra investment.

I plan to dig into this data a bit more (and post the attacking equivalent) but for now I just want to highlight Chelsea a little.

Each bar shows the degree to which Chelsea over or underperformed the xGC that other teams have achieved against that opponent so far this season. Given that this is goals conceded a negative number here is good. The line shows the trend of the season so a downward slant suggests a team continuing to outperform the average, while an upwards slant would suggest a team is getting comparatively worse over time.

Since Mendy (5.2m) arrived, there has been a general acceptance of the narrative that Chelsea's defense has become quite solid, notching a very impressive five clean in eight gameweeks (plus additional success in the Champions League). Chilwell (6.2m) - initially signed by many for his attacking abilities - has been targeted by many, seeing his ownership rise to over 35%, making him the most owned defender in the game. Zouma (5.5m) and James (5.2m) have 21% and 15% ownership numbers respectively so are too gathering some solid attention. Indeed, if you sum the ownership numbers for teams' 'keeper and top three defenders, Chelsea's 80% total far exceeds the likes of Liverpool (48%), Villa (50%), and Leicester (47%).

I believe this data shows, however, that we are still vastly underrating this defense as of right now. I add that caveat because with COVID, crowded fixtures, and an unproven manager, Chelsea's fortunes could change, but they currently look like just about the surest bet anywhere on the field.

Chelsea's xGC of 7.9 looks very solid, albeit not a million miles away from teams like Man City (9.9), Brighton (10.1), Burnley (10.8), and Villa (10.8). Per the earlier visualization though, this seems to actually underrate Chelsea's performance. A total of 2.2 expected goals came in the single game against Liverpool, and even that was actually 0.6 less than team's are typically surrendering to the Champions (who were full strength at the time, by the way). They have outperformed the typical xGC performance in every single game other than Southampton when they narrowly underperformed the average, and are conceding over half an expected goal per game, less than other teams in the same fixtures.

Compare that to, say, Villa, who have a good overall xGC but have been hit-and-miss conceding higher xG totals that average in games against Fulham, Leeds, and Arsenal, while excelling against Liverpool, Southampton and West Ham. In total they have only conceded about two less expected goals than the average performance against their same opponents, suggesting they have been somewhat benefited by weaker opponents than fantastic defensive play. This runs counter to intuition which says Villa were on a tough run of games, but based on the season so far, we might need to revise our expectations about how hard games against the likes of Leicester and Arsenal really are.

The really exciting thing about Chelsea is that they also seem to be getting better in recent weeks, with results against Sheff Utd, Newcastle, and Spurs representing three of the best four defensive performances of the season by this +/- metric. Having clinched top spot in their Champions League group, we can probably predict that starters like Chilwell, Zouma, and James are more likely to play in the league too, and their fixtures look quite useful for at least the next six weeks.

The only downside side is a lack of any truly great individua fixtures, though games against Jimenez-less Wolves (A), West Ham (H), Arsenal (A), and even Villa (H) all look like reasonable bets for a clean sheet. At their respective prices, a double up with Chilwell and James - or for those in need a Martinez replacement, perhaps Chilwell and Mendy - seems like a very solid strategy to get you through the upcoming busy month.

[EDIT: Some readers might know that I have been on and off with this site for many years, but are currently not super-plugged into the FPL space as other responsibilities have taken over. It's very possible that these posts are talking about "new" data which is actually very old and commonly available, and I just don't know where to look for it, so apologies in advance if I am doing the Uber tech-bro move of proudly announcing my new invention which turns out to just be a bus].

Selecting defenders within the same team

2018-09-19T21:33:00.000-04:00

We talked about this earlier in the season, but with a couple more games in the bag, I've updated the viz which attempts to help you choose your defenders. The "All Players" tab should in theory help you do this coming with a blank slate, but the raison d'etre for the viz is to help you choose between players in the same side, once you've decided that, for example, you want a City defender.

The viz can be found linked from the main menu, and here and should be opened separately to best read this piece. A few notes as of GW5 below.

Arsenal
I'm not sure how much value there is with this defense right now, but if you are planning to play the fixtures and take a chance with one of Emery's men, this would suggest it should be Mustafi rather than the 10% owner Bellerin who you should target.

Bournemouth
Cook is the man here for now, though if a clear winner emerges from the developing Daniels vs Rico battle then one of those players could topple him based on either a lower price tag (Daniels, 4.4m) or Rico potentially taking set pieces.

Chelsea
However you present the stats, it seems that Alonso can justify his lofty price tag, though I think it's worth noting Rudiger here, who has offered a genuine attacking threat and comes at a discount that will probably reach 1.0m soon. Luiz is a surprise here as he has offered very little at the attacking end, despite his prior reputation.

Crystal Palace
Coming into the season I had serious doubts about Van Aanholt's ability to justify what I thought was a 1.0m premium over his teammates, but actually turned out to be a 1.5m premium, after the emergence of Wan-Bissaka. In a previous post we estimated that every 1.0m spent needs to earn somewhere around 26 points, and so with a 2.5-3.0 point advantage after 5 gameweeks, we'd project Van Aanholt to end up a little short of that, but not a million miles away. However, if we feel that Wan-Bissaka is going to keep his job then the gap becomes 1.5m and then you're looking at needing something like 35-40 points to justify the added cost, and I just don't think Van Aaanholt is there unless (a) he starts become a legitimate goal threat from direct free kicks or penalties, or (b) you think his playing time is significantly more locked down than Wan-Bissaka.

Everton
Keane is an interesting name here as he accumulated those projected attacking points in just three games. He's due to return as soon as this week after his head injury which could make him an interesting name to look at for the GW7-9 run which sees Everton face FUL (H), LEI (A) and CRY (H). Despite the lack of clean sheets and 9 goals conceded, Everton's underlying defensive numbers are actually reasonably good, which could suggest a few defensive returns in the future too.

Leicester
I know Maguire got his goal but Chilwell continues to offer more attacking potential based on the underlying stats for less money and significantly less ownership. Pereira has received some recent buzz too, but he's only created one extra chance than Chilwell while Chilwell has also offered more of a goal threat than the Portuguese fullback.

Liverpool
17% of managers continue to hold out with van Dijk but even though Robertson's price has risen by 0.2m, I would still encourage people to make that move. Van Dijk has just two attempts on goal through five games, which is admittedly more than Robertson's one, but then of course the Scotsman blows his Dutch colleague out of the water with 10 created chances to 0. At this stage I think one can make an argument that Alexander-Arnold or even Gomez represent better value than Van Dijk, unless you feel that the return of Matip will overly complicate their playing time.

Man City
Similarly, there is really very little reason to stick with Walker over Mendy at this stage, unless we learn that the recent knee issue is a cause for concern. Even then, if you were worried about Mendy, I think Walker to Laporte makes a lot of sense as the Frenchman (rested over the summer) starts to make one of those centre back spots his own in Pep's side.

Man Utd
The worry here is that by the time United get their defense sorted, Shaw will face rotation with Young, Valencia and Dalot. Mourinho has already been discussing the need for multiple full backs and while Shaw has been solid, he's obviously far from rotation proof in this side. At 5.1m he's cheap enough to have benched every now and then though, so he's still probably the pick here.

Tottenham
I don't know if this will be useful information to act on, but prima facie it is remarkable to me that Davies is ahead of Tripper here. The chances created given a slight nod to the England man (7 to 6) but Davies has more total shots and SiB to give him the overall edge, not even counting that these came in fewer minutes. Alas, those words "fewer minutes" are probably the death of Davies' fantasy value as he is already being heavily rotated with Rose, where as we assume Trippier will only be rested as needed, with the less reliable Aurier stepping in. If Davies offered a discount of 0.5m or more, those benchings might be worth absorbing, but for 0.2m I don't think we can justify the risk as things stand.

Wolves
The underlying data absolutely loves Matt Doherty, whose 8 total shots trail only Alonso, 7 SiB lead all defenders and who places a solid 9th in created chances too. The question here is how often you are going to play your Wolves defender. If he is just an enabler, recruited to warm the bench and deliver 2 points when you have an unexpected rotation issue, then Bennett - at 4.1m - is still worth a thought. However, I think this does a disservice to Wolves, whose 25 SiB conceded are tied for third, behind just Liverpool and City. I don't think we're ready to say Wolves defenders are every week starters, but if you think they might rotate into half your games, then the additional goal and assist threat becomes much more valuable and Doherty becomes an outstanding pickup. After back to back clean sheets, I am amazed his price is holding firm at 4.4m.

Selling Salah

2018-09-12T23:26:00.000-04:00

Given his exploits last season, and a pretty healthy start to this one, it's hard to believe the thought of selling Salah is even worth exploring. But, international weeks give us time to think through less obvious solutions so let's make a case for it. But first, a few opening notes:

This is a short term measure. Despite Mane's hot start and promising form from the likes of Hazard, I still believe Salah is the best fantasy option for the season. His underlying numbers are excellent, his team looks as good as ever and his playing time is assured (other than the odd rest of course).
This move make more sense if you haven't yet wildcarded, but plan to do so in the next 4-6 weeks, potentially before GW9 during the international break. If you have already played that chip then using three or four transfers in 4 gameweeks to rotate one player (along with a corresponding move) might be tricky (although if you have wildcarded the rest of your team is presumably settled?)
This move arguably makes more sense if you haven't enjoyed the best start of the season and want to shake things up a bit, although I personally try and avoid such thinking at this early stage of the season too much.

The player

We don't need to dwell here, suffice to say that Salah has shown that he is anything but a one season wonder. He leads all midfielders in total shots (19), shots inside the box (12), shots on target (7) and created chances (13). Those totals would place him among the top 2 or 3 forwards too (the majority of which offer very little by way of assist potential). He played at the World Cup, but Egypt of course suffered an early exit so he's also relatively rested (though did face a trip to Egypt over the international break).

The opponents
From GW5-GW8 Liverpool will face Spurs away, Southampton at home, Chelsea away and Man City at home. There's not much argument to be made that this is a tough run. Spurs haven't looked amazing in a couple of their games this year and their 34 SiB conceded is somewhat mediocre, but they've still conceded just 4 in 4, with City and Chelsea both slightly ahead with 3 in 4 (Southampton have also only conceded 4 in 4, though underlying data suggests they have perhaps been a touch fortuitous and aren't a great defense).

In these fixtures last season Liverpool lost 4-1 at Tottenham, beat Southampton 3-0, lost 1-0 at Chelsea and then recorded that memorable 4-3 win over Man City. How to interpet Salah's output during this period is hard to measure. On the one hand, he notched 4 goals and an assist (although one was that fortuitous lob over Ederson after the Brazilian misplayed a pass) - an impressive haul in just 4 games - the kind that earned him his 13.0m price tag. However, Salah's xG was just 1.36 and his xA was 0.35, suggesting he was somewhat fortunate to rack up the points he did. One can note that he exceeded his xG total all season, but 32 goals vs 24 xG is a 33% premium, not the 300% premium we observed in these four games. Admittedly, looking at single game xG isn't really the way it was intended to be used, but I do think it highlights that there remains some question about Salah's output versus these opponents last season.

The alternatives
One of the reasons you can justify Salah's 13.0m price tag is by captaining him most weeks. A 7 point haul for 13.0m doesn't sound great but when you're consistently doubling that to mid-double digit returns, the purchase starts to make much more sense. With that in mind then, whether or not you sell Salah for this short period is in part dependant on who you will give the armband to. It's possible that in three of these fixtures you would likely consider someone else for the captaincy, and thus not having Salah becomes more palatable, and missing out of another captain-worthy option becomes more painful.

A quick reminder of the elite options' fixtures over the next four gameweeks:

Kane, Eriksen: LIV, @BHA, @HUD, CAR
Hazard: CAR, @WHU, LIV, @SOU
Aguero, Sterling et al: FUL, @CAR, BHA, @LIV
Lukaku: @WAT, WOL, @WHU, NEW

From this list, I would suggest that all these options are going to offer at least 3 opportunities for captaincy, with the worst game probably being City's trip to Anfield.

Of course, the forwards listed here would require a double transfer to access, but when dealing with such large amounts of cash, I think you'd only make the move if there were specifically two players you really wanted. Who that second player would be is a major question - and possibly subject of its own blog article - but to get an idea of the range of options moving Salah would open up:

Salah to Sterling/Hazard frees up 2.0-2.3m which could allow you switch a 2-point bench player like Neves or Kante into a Pedro, Walcott or Richarlison. You could also move a budget defender and jump on the Alonso bandwagon (or any of the other elite defenders)
Salah to Eriksen frees up 3.6m which is enough to convert Vardy into Kane or Zaha into Aguero.
Salah to Aguero frees up just 1.7m, although even that can be enough to move up a level among defenders, from either Maguire to Alonso or from Bournemouth to Tottenham.

One final thing we have to consider here is the risk of rotation as we move into the European schedule and bumps and bruises start to take their toll (this might be especially true in a season following a World Cup). The relevant big teams play the below fixtures in all competitions between now and October 20th (the start of GW9, after the international break, and when Liverpool face Huddersfield i.e. the date you probably want Salah back in your side.

Chelsea (Premier League games are underlined)

Cardiff H, PAOK A, West Ham A, Liverpool A, Liverpool H, Vidi H, Southampton A

I'm not typically in the business of guessing lineups, but I think it's probably reasonable to say that, as a team, Chelsea has the best situation here (not necessarily in terms of strength of opponent but specifically as it pertains to rotation threat). PAOK are Chelsea's toughest Europa league opponent so Sarri may well send a full strength team to Greece, but then Chelsea still get the normal two days rest before a trip to West Ham on the following Sunday. With Liverpool to come in the league right on the heels of the Carabao Cup fixture, one suspects we'll see rotation there and then the other Europa League game is against lowly Vidi at the Bridge, where we could again expect to see some bench options. With Hazard also being eased into the season already, I'd be even more confident of Hazard's minutes here.

Man City

Fulham H, Lyon H, Cardiff A, Oxford Utd A, Brighton H, Hoffenheim A, Liverpool H

Guardiola will want to start City's Champions League strongly against Lyon, who are on paper their toughest opponent. Given the squad depth, it wouldn't be surprising to see a rotated team head to Cardiff the following weekend, which is a pretty favourable fixture to miss. I'd perhaps feel slightly more confident in Aguero getting the nod as we've sometimes seen Pep drop his "faster" players against sides who might play 11 behind the ball, in a desire to have as many technically gifted players as possible to work in tight spaces. That would arguably favour the Argentine over Sterling but either are liable to be dropped in this run. We can presume that City will want to be at full strength for the visit of Liverpool, meaning potential lost minutes either during the trip to Hoffenheim or in the previous week's visit of Brighton. One could imagine a scenario where Aguero and co start that Brighton game but are quick to be pulled off if City jump out to a lead (something to be considered when handing out the armband).

Man Utd

Watford A, Young Boys H, Wolves H, Derby H, West Ham A, Valencia H, Newcastle H

With Rashford suspended for the next two Premier League games, Lukaku immediately enjoys almost guaranteed starts against Watford and Wolves, with perhaps Rashford spelling him some minutes in the trip to Young Boys - a must win game for United given the other strong opponents in United's group. Assuming we see a rotated team in the Carabao Cup - as we did at this stage last season in the 4-1 win over Burton - that would again leave Lukaku rested to face West Ham. The only question would then we whether the Belgian would be utilized against both Valencia and Newcastle, which if not would be a huge blow as that's a promising fixture despite Newcastle's solid defensive efforts to date. Given how much he was relied on last season, the pressure on Mourinho and the apparent lack of faith in Rashford, I might say that Lukaku is best placed to play all four games over this period.

That said, he's also on the weakest team, may therefore have less opportunities and, frankly, just isn't as good a player as the other names on this list so this is a very tough call. Sometimes we avoid making decisions for fear of looking foolish, and of all the players to sell Salah for, Lukaku probably has the biggest risk of making you feel idiotic, but don't let that alone scare you off - there is plenty of evidence to support this move.

Tottenham

Liverpool H, Inter A, Brighton A, Watford H, Huddersfield A, Barcelona H, Cardiff H

Other than this week's visit of Liverpool I was very interested in getting access to this Spurs side, especially with Son returning from international duty. The fixture list does complicate things a little though. Spurs have been handed a really tough Champions League group and face two of their toughest games in the coming month. After presumably playing a full strength side against both Liverpool and Inter, one could see a couple of players getting a rest at Brighton, especially those who enjoyed a busy summer and have started every game so far - including Eriksen and Kane. With the visit of Barcelona then focusing the mind, you wonder if those top assets might then again be given a reduced role in either the proceeding trip to Huddersfield or the subsequent visit of Cardiif.

Normally I would say that Spurs players have the safest roles given the comparative lack of depth compared to the other elite side but with the emergence of Lucas Moura, the obvious fatigue of the players involved at the World Cup and the complication of their very difficult Champions League group, I am now not so sure. If Kane and co were firing on all cylinders I'd be more willing to overlook this concern but as it is, this group seems like too big of a risk to sell Salah for.

The summary

I think the case for Hazard is probably the strongest, especially if that 2.3m will then allow you to access another key target. Lukaku is tempting as a differentiator (8%) owned but my own personal front line is pretty set - Aguero, Wilson and Mitrovic - and I will probably keep them intact until I wildcard. City's fixtures make Sterling really tempting, even if his likelihood of rotation is higher than some of the other options. Again, in my personal situation I already have three City players (Ederson, Mendy and Aguero) who I'm pretty happy with so it's difficult to fit the England man in. The money saved by switching to Eriksen is pretty tempting - the 4.0m in the bank would allow me to switch the freefalling Jota into Sanchez(!) - but those fixtures are a big concern. One move I didn't discuss above is to do Salah to Mane to lessen the financial blow of the tough fixture list, though that seems like a lot of transfers to commit to the project unless you have a strong idea in how as to how to use the 3.0m saved (I'm not yet convinced that Mane will continue to offer equal output to Salah).

There's a case to be made here, for sure, but I think it only makes in specific circumstances so I wouldn't want to force the issue. Those who do make a move face four weeks of watching games from behind the couch, but isn't that what makes fantasy fun!

Comparing like-for-like fixtures and underlying data

2018-09-05T21:35:00.000-04:00

As noted in other recent posts, it can be hard to know what data to rely upon in the early gameweeks. We all know that shots inside the box or those on target tend to correlate well to goals, but with only a few of those events happening each week, it can be easy to overreact to unstable data. One data point I am interested in, is how well teams are doing compared to same fixtures from prior season. This data is still fraught with issues - teams might have changed personnel or have injuries or simply suffered a bad game - but we at least have a baseline to compare against which gives a little more context to what we're looking at.

The below visualization shows the Goals (G), Expected Goals (xG), Shots Inside the Box (SiB), Created Chances (CC) and Successful Passes in the Final Third (P3rd) for each team's fixtures for 2018-19 (CY) compared to the same slate of games from the 2017-18 season (PY). We'll highlight a couple of the more interesting observations below the viz:

Chelsea
Of the four games Chelsea have played to date, they drew a blank in three of them in the corresponding fixture last season. Their combined xG over those games was 3.0 - so there's no doubt they were a little unlucky to come up empty - but still, the difference between that streak of zeros and this season's 7 goal haul (with an xG of 4.3) help to underline the potential improvement we are seeing under Sarri. They doubled their SiB in two of those games and have come close to tripling the number of passes they have completed in the final third of the pitch. Looking at the opponents doesn't appear to completely explain this improvement either. Ignoring Huddersfield, against which Chelsea played just about as well as last season, we find Arsenal who one could argue are still finding their feet under Emery but are otherwise largely unchanged from last season, a Newcastle side that is largely unchanged and gave Man City a good game this past weekend, and a Bournemouth side who appear stronger than last season.

The pressure that Sarri's team is going to create with so much possession in the final third is surely going to be too much for some sides, and while one can argue how that translates into wins and losses, in fantasy terms it creates more chances, which typically lead to shots and points over the course of a season. Chelsea's lineup make it somewhat difficult to load up on their players, as you might do with, say, Mendy, De Bruyne and Aguero at City, but this improvement makes Hazard extremely appealing and I think justifies doubling up the Belgian and Kante, or even Pedro (though I fear too much rotation with the latter with Willian also available). If Morata could find some form and develop under this system then he too might play his way into contention before the year ends. We've already discussed how Alonso appears to justify his price tag - at least compared to his Chelsea colleagues - and nothing here seems to contradict that fact.

Liverpool
Liverpool have the worst differential between the goals they've scored in the four games this season versus their haul in the same fixtures last season. Of course, before you immediately start planning for how you're going to divert your 13m Salah funds, consider that the baseline they have fallen from was impossibly high - 13 goals in 4 games - and if you look at their xG they are actually much closer with 9.3 xG for this season compared with 10.4 xG for last. That said, a quick peak at the underlying data does show some drop beyond just unfortunate timing with a significant drop in both SiB and CC. I don't think this is anything close to being a cause for concern but it might be a small factor when considering whether to sell Salah for a few weeks during this tough run of games: if the heights aren't quite what they were last year then it becomes less scary to sell the Egyptian and use your funds elsewhere with a reduced fear of Liverpool massacring sides and earning huge points totals for their players. For what it's worth, I am considering moving Salah and Alexander-Arnold for 4 gameweeks, given the fixtures and the fact that neither have seen a price rise to date that will make buying them back a big issue.

Leicester
Leicester's stats are interesting, though I'm not sure what they mean from a fantasy perspective. Their xG and SiB are down around 40% from the corresponding fixtures last season, and that has played itself out in the goals column, that has decreased from 6 to 4 (they did of course manager two against Wolves which is excluded from this analysis, so let's not be too harsh too quickly). Their passes completed in the final third have doubled though, which suggests increased attacking possession. I don't see enough Leicester games to conclude that this is an intentional strategic shift or whether it's due to Vardy missing a couple of games (and with him that ability to counter so well), but it's something to watch going forward as it could shift how different Leicester assets are valued in this side. For now though, I want to see a return to form when Vardy is back or else fear this side might offer little fantasy value this year.

Man Utd
This data might prove to be some relief for Man Utd fans, given that the majority of the news about their club seems to suggest the sky is falling. After struggling to generate shots in GW1 and GW2, United doubled the number of SiB against TOT and BUR that they managed last season, and saw their xG rise from 1.6 to 4.0 in those two games. Their completed passes in the final third took an almost unbelievable drop against Leicester and particularly Brighton, to the point I had to go back and check the data but based on what we've since seen against Spurs and Burnley, the outlier wasn't so much those games this season but the corresponding fixtures last season where United were able to dominate possession against weaker sides, albeit not always to great effect as United of course went on to lose that game to Brighton. I'm not exactly sure what to make of this fact. Are United more clinical, luckier, or just playing a different way? I think we need a few more games from this team to figure out what they are and which, if any, of their pricey assets might be able to contribute to our fantasy teams.

Brighton
It's too early to write teams off, or even be overly "concerned" about their prospects for a long season ahead, but the early data for Brighton is not as promising as one might think given their win over Man Utd and a close loss to Liverpool. Their created chances and shots inside the box have fallen off significantly from last year, and while their xG looks not too bad, it is being propped up by the penalty they earned against United (worth 0.79 xG). Now it's not necessarily fair to just arbitrarily take that penalty away as they did indeed earn it, but just to note that without it, they'd have an xG of 1.8 over three games in which they managed 3.3 xG last year. Again, we're not close to worrying yet or taking away credit for the penalties, but of they were indeed events of luck rather than due to a repeatable skill on Brighton's behalf, this might be of note of caution to those starting to look at the likes of Pascal Gross for fantasy production based on his team's prior season performance.

Everton
It's not a spectacular improvement but Everton have improved pretty much across the board in their three fixtures to date (we're excluding the GW1 effort against Wolves in which they also notched a couple of goals, albeit perhaps a bit fortuitously). They haven't played the toughest run of games of course, but the idea behind this analysis is that is allows for like-for-like comparisons and on this basis, the team has clearly developed. With injuries and suspensions impacting Walcott and Richarlison and Tosun and Sigurdsson yet to attract much attention, it's possible that people might start to forget about Everton, but the data here suggests they have the makings of a good mid-level team that might be a source of reasonably price squad players.

Looking at early conversion rates (to justify your transfers or crush your dreams)

2018-08-30T09:38:00.000-04:00

There seems to be an emerging narrative in the early week of the season that fantasy teams are starting to converge and a “template” has emerged for people to follow. The strong start of the elite full backs, the apparent “must own” status of pricey Salah and Aguero and a couple of budget midfield enablers (Neves and Kante) make it seem like this is the case. If we look at the prior year ownership data for GW3 though, we see a broadly similar pattern of ownership:

Overall we had 14 players with 20%+ ownership where as this season we have 17, with one clear leader over 50% and a handful more over 30%. This season I think we have a couple more budget options with the likes of Wan-Bissaka, Richarlison, Neves, Kante and to an extent Zaha and Mkhitaryan, where as last year we saw just Hernandez, Hegazi and Rooney. I wonder if the the presence of these budget options here might well be what is leading folks to conclude that teams are starting to all look the same. Differentiation is always an important consideration and so while the question as to whether or not teams are less diverse is an interesting question, but the point I wanted to dwell on here was another.

If we look back at that list of early favourites from last season and see where their ownership percentage was a few gameweeks later, we see some interesting results:

By GW10, 12 of the 14 most-owned players had either decreased in ownership or stayed approximately the same. The likes of Rooney, David Luiz, Mane, Hernandez and Alli had all seen their ownership percentage drop by over 10% with only Salah and Kane increasing their numbers significantly. By the halfway point of the season five players had lost 20 percentage points or more. On the flip side, players like David Silva, Jesus, Sane, Otamendi, Doucoure, Groß, Azipilicueta and Richarlison all had low ownership numbers at this point last season but by GW10 were all close to 20% owned.

So all that is a long road to get to our destination of concluding that we probably don’t know as much as we think we do, and those players who look to be essential now might be discarded in a few weeks and new options will surely emerge. I’ve noted before that I’m not super comfortable suggesting that Player X is a “good” pickup because he has good shot totals as this data is so noisy after just a couple of games. Schurrle, for example, seems to be getting some buzz given his high shot totals but a quick peak at the underlying data shows a mediocre xG, backed up by watching last week’s game – he’s clearly a promising option with a good pedigree and involvement in that team, but his mandate appeared to be to shoot on sight and thus his lofty shot totals are probably not a great data point to rely on alone. To try and tease some of these over (and under) achievers out, we can plot players’ conversion rates for this season (CY) and compare to the prior year data (PY) as well as the rate at which their teammates are converting chances (Tm). If we see some of these “hot” players with conversion rates that are well above normal then that might pour some cold water on our enthusiasm (or vice versa for players whose rates are inexplicably low).

Mkhitaryan (20% ownership)
Clearly his G/SiB rate is higher than expected, but not so much as to scream regression. His SiB/PBT rate is right around where we'd expect, suggesting he's earning his shots at a reliable rate, and of course he still offers some value from shots outside the box given his ability. The rate at which he's creating chances coupled with a slightly lower than expected conversion rate suggests his assist potential could even be a little understated. Arsenal have a good fixture list over the next seven weeks but there aren't too many other options in this team you'd feel comfortable backing. You typically like your mid-price options to offer a bit more differentiation but 20% isn't too high and the pick just makes sense right now.

Wilson and Fraser
As I started to write this, I very much expected both Wilson and Fraser to have the kind of stats that pointed towards a nosedive in the coming weeks. I'm a fan of Wilson and Fraser has really impressed, but for a reasonable but non-explosive Bournemouth side, I just didn't imagine there would be enough there to support their points hauls. However, Wilson actually has a slightly lower G/SiB conversion rate and while he is earning shots at a slightly higher rate based on his PBT, that could at least be in part down to the way this side is playing. His assist threat looks overstated but for a 7 million forward, you don't need many assists so long as the goals keep flowing. 14% (and climbing) is a reasonable number of managers, most of whom are presumably quite active as he surely wasn't a huge GW1 play, but with many teams looking to install two mid-level forwards, there's good reason to suggest Wilson can be one of those players.

Again, Fraser appears to have some hints around the edges that he's overachieved a little, but really nothing to worry about. His set piece ability will mean that he will always have the potential to create more chances than open play numbers would suggest and with a decent stable of teammates, it's not unreasonable to think they will be converted a decent rate.

Alonso
The Spanish full back is good value for his goal and is arguably as likely as anyone to lead all defenders in goals by the end of the season. His assist haul however is significantly overblown and we'd expect some serious regression there. This means that to justify that premium price tag, you need reasonable confidence that he's also going to earn defensive points. Chelsea only have the one clean sheet from the first three games, although they are second only to Liverpool in terms of shots conceded inside the box, despite two away games (albeit to somewhat weak opposition) and the visit of Arsenal. If you buy the red flag about assist potential and aren't totally convinced about Chelsea's defensive potential then I'm not sure Alonso justifies the 0.4m more than Mendy, or the 0.6m over Robertson (both of whom I would expect to notch plenty of assists and clean sheets but perhaps not the goals). That said, there is a pretty strong case for owning all three of that group and I therefore wouldn't argue against feeling the need to bring Alonso in while his price continues to rise.

Zaha
The numbers here suggest we pour a bit of cold water on Zaha, although given his price and guaranteed playing time, I don't think we need to panic. However, with a G/SiB more than double last year, we'd expect him to slow down a bit and when you look down that list of teammates, you can see why. Without too much other attacking quality in the side, teams should be able to focus on Zaha and as the season goes on and the tactics become more known, it'll be a hard lift for Zaha to continue his form. Of course, Townsend is a decent player, the attacking full back pair of Wan-Bissaka and van Aanholt look promising and new arrival Meyer comes with a good reputation, so it's possible this Palace side continue to develop as the season progresses. I'd say if you own him or sign him now then the move still make sense, but with brutal fixtures starting in GW10 and continuing for the most part through GW18, time is certainly of the essence.

Richarlison and Walcott
The Everton duo have 5 goals between them and a combined ownership now approaching 40% (with a shift from the Brazilian to the English man due to the former's red card). However, Richarlison has scored 3 goals from 4 SiB and Walcott has 2 goals from his 3 SiB; both rates which look unsustainable for anyone, nevermind two players whose profile pictures weren't exactly shortlisted when defining "clinical" in the dictionary. Now, 4 SiB in two and a half games is a totally reasonable haul for Richarlison and his penalty box touches and pass numbers suggest he will continue to earn those high value shots. The numbers don't, however, speak of a "must own" player and with his absence in GW4-6 followed by trips to Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool in GW10-14, I wouldn't rule out selling him and circling back after those games are in the books.

Walcott too has some reasonable underlying data and his game isn't necessarily going to be well reflected by stats looking at total touches, but his shot totals are pretty low and he's offering little assist threat, making him a fine but not overly exciting option at 6.7m. With home games against WHU, HUD and FUL in the next 4 gameweeks, he makes sense as a short term rental, or for anyone convinced they need to switch back to Richarlison immediately post-suspension, but I don't know if this move is certain enough to justify the 500,000+ transfers we've already seen in the gameweek. Of course, there aren't too many options in the 6-8m who look totally convincing right now, so the move certainly isn't crazy either.

Maddison
Speaking of mid-level midfielders, I am surprised Maddison's ownership numbers are so low given the chatter around the Leicester man, although not at all surprising based on his underlying data. A single SiB and two CC don't suggest a breakout in the near future, even if he has impressed to the eyeball test in that role off of Vardy and more recently Iheanacho.

Mane and Salah
One current line of thinking is that Mane can provide sufficient Liverpool cover to free you of the need to own Salah, giving you over 3 million to spend elsewhere in your team without losing too much ground. Through three gameweeks that strategy has obviously proven wise with Mane not only matching but actually surpassing Salah in both goals and fantasy points. This data suggests the next set of gameweeks might not go the same way though. While Mane has been significantly more clinical than last season - converting his SiB at double last year's rate - Salah has actually been less clinical than we might expect, although I think it's reasonable to expect some regression from last season's lofty heights. The fact that Mane is second only to Salah in total shots sounds promising but when you realise that Salah has literally doubled Mane's total efforts and out shot him 11 to 8 inside the box, it starts to suggest there really does remain a gap here, and it's probably not a question as to whether Salah starts to outscore his teammate, but by how much, and more importantly, whether than gap justifies 3 million pounds. I think there's a pretty strong case to be made for owning both Mane and Salah, especially given Firmino not looking quite as sharp as last season, but given the 60% combined ownership numbers for Robertson, Van Dijk and Alexander-Arnold, that means you could have 28 million or so invested in a single team that is about to face TOT, CHE and MCI in the next five gameweeks. I could definitely see a scenario where I own both these players in the future but right now that looks tough to justify and given Salah's threat, that Mane ownership number starts to look a bit big to me.

Mendy
Despite Mendy having 6 totals shots (compared to Alonso's 7), I don't think it's controversial to suggest that the Chelsea man would be strong favourite to finish the season with more goals. Assist wise, both players have benefited from unsustainably high conversion rates of the created chances, though Mendy's case is not as extreme as Alonso who has literally more assists than created chances. I think it's fair to conclude that Mendy offers just about the best assist threat among defenders though, given his advanced role in the best team and so while the lack of reliable goal production is a concern, I do think the assists will continue to come, and I'd expect City to have the best defense again, which together with a lack of too many options at his position in the City squad, conspire to make Mendy justifiable at any price up to probably close to 7.0m.

Not much to add on Aguero here, other than to note that while he already leads the league in goals, he's just doing what he does. Nothing suggests he's overachieving or outperforming his stats by a material amount, and the only thing likely to slow him down is rotation (which could come as soon as this week) or injury.

Trippier
All this data should be taken with a pinch of salt given the small sample, and that applies even more to Trippier who missed a game, but I just want to note here that while the England man can probably fairly be put in that elite fullback group with Mendy and Alonso when it comes to assist potential (5 CC already in just 166 minutes of action), I don't think his goal threat is that much higher, if at all, just because of his free kick ability. He's managed just two totals shots in his two games, and only four touches in the penalty area, compared to double digit efforts from Alonso and Mendy. The free kicks are certainly a nice bonus, but with Eriksen, Alli and even players like Lamela and Dier in the side, I don't know if that's quite the gold mine that memories of Russia might suggest for the England fullback.

Pereyra
I think most managers buying Pereyra are savvy enough to know that his current pace is obviously going to slow down, the question just being by how much. WIth that in mind then, I think this data is actually quite positive. A 38% G/SiB is high, but not laughably so and it's fair to argue he's been good value for at least one or two goals based on the underlying data. His 8 shots have all come inside the box giving him the exact shot profile as the significanlt pricier duo of Alli and Mane. At 6.2m he's just about cheap enough to bench every second or third week, although the upcoming fixtures of TOT, MUN and at ARS look perhaps too daunting to justify pulling the trigger now. If you haven't already jumped in, then it might now be worth waiting out that run of games given the presumed slow down in price rise after the early gameweek rush.

Arnautovic
I imagine a lot of teams had Arnautovic in them at some point during the preseason given his reasonable price tag, ability and success last year in a more advanced role, and he opened the season with a solid but not sky-high ownership number that surprisingly hasn't changed too much. I guess his injury status is weighing against his back-to-back goalscoring games, offering a bit of time for prospective buyers to consider their options. He's earning chances at a higher rate than last year, though that could partly be role-related, but nothing else is really a cause for concern here and once the injury situation is cleared up I would definitely have the Austrian on.my shortlist The only significant arguments against the West Ham man are the overall uncertainty around his team - the Hammers have managed just 16 SiB in three games, the 4th lowest mark in the league - and the decent array of mid-price forwards that have emerged (Wilson, Mitrovic, Zaha, Tosun) as competition.

I'm going to leave it there for now, having only focused on those with high ownership numbers, but plan a follow up post where we look at players with low ownership numbers whose underlying data suggest some position regression in their future.

How much extra value do premium defenders need to offer? Part II

2018-08-23T20:29:00.000-04:00

Previously we looked at some data from last season and tried to set a rough benchmark as to how much value you need from premium defenders in order to be worth their higher price tag. If you didn't catch that piece then I'd encourage you to do so, but if not, the TL;DR is that we estimated that you should be aiming to earn somewhere around 26 points attacking points (goals, assists and bonus points) for every 1.0m extra invested over a player in the same team i.e. Alonso over Luiz or Walker over Stones. It's also worth re-empahasising that this would exclude any playing time concerns, which further complicate things somewhat.

The below graphic starts to plot the defenders from each team to quickly highlight the potential areas where the more expensive players are starting to show their value. I must note here that two gameweeks is too soon to draw any strong conclusions based on the underlying stats, but then again, we need to start making transfer decisions now so like it or not this is what we have. My own approach is to keep my prior based on what we know from last season or beyond, taking care to adjust it as new data comes in, and not tear it down based on one or two good games. After the vizualisation I will flag a few names that have caught my eye:

Chelsea
Chelsea were the team that inspired this piece and Alonson was the specific player. Despite Azpilicueta's 14% ownership and assist at the weekend, there is really no way to justify him in your team based on the 2nd level data (shots and created chances), although if you dig a little deeper into attacking touches and passes, the Spanish duo start to look more comparable. Rudiger has offered a decent amount of attacking threat but with Alonso stronger claim on a starting spot and a general preference for the consistent threat from attacking full backs over the sporadic returns from centre backs scoring from set pieces, I would give the nod to Alonso there without much question. Luiz makes the decision close as now you're talking about a little over a million pounds, which would play out to be something like 30 points, and we know that Luiz carries his own threat, not just from headers but from taking set pieces himself and even the odd long range thunderbolt. The expected points gap through two games is about 2 points which puts Alonso ahead of schedule in justifying the premium, and again, with the higher likelihood of holding his starting spot I think this is one area where the most expensive defender is actually worth the premium. The 26% ownership is a bit of a turn off and the fixture list is good rather than great, but if you're buying Chelsea I would agree that Alonso is the best way to do so.

Crystal Palace
After his run to end last season, I expected Van Aanholt to be a significant bandwagon pick this season. However, it looks like his price tag probably scared many off initially, and then the subsequent emergence of Wan-Bissaka as a 4.0m starter and Schlupp as a defender-playing-in-midfield option, the former Chelsea man is somewhat being ignored. Based on this early data I would say that decision looks smart, although Schlupp could well lose playing time now Meyer looks ready to slide into midfield and Wan-Bissaka will miss a game through suspension. The youngster's attacking threat make him incredible value at 4.0m but even if he fell out of favour, the likely replacement would be another 4.0m man in Kelly, and it's really hard to see Van Aanholt generating enough points to justify a 1.5m premium over either of these options.

Leicester
Maguire is obviously a threat from set pieces and this is one example where that prior shouldn't be overtaken by two games of blanks from the England man in terms of shots on goal. That said, Chilwell really impressed against Man United and has already generated some decent attacking data, all while costing 0.5m less and being something of a differentiator. This is a close one and picking Chilwell might be being a touch too clever, although I can't help but feel that some of Maguire's perceived value comes from his marauding runs upfield and his place in the England team, which count for nought in fantasy football. I was also surprised to see that he wasn't even particularly a bonus magnet last season with just 10 points on 716 BPS. This one is arguable either way, and despite the advantage Chilwell shows here, you can also make the case for Pereira, who has some very nice level 3 data (touches in the final third etc).

Man City
This one looks like no-brainer given the start Mendy has enjoyed, and I don't really have any push back on that conclusion, other than to say that his price is already up to 6.2m, he's already owned by 27% of managers (and rising) and given his playing time last season, it's not hard to imagine sitting out a game or two in the near future, which would frustratingly be likely to come against an easier opponent. It's all but impossible to choose the more expensive Walker though, so if you are looking to go in a different direction to access this City defense then you're stuck playing the Pep Guessing game between Stones, Laporte and Kompany. I didn't list goalies here, but Ederson is probably the best pick after Mendy given his lack of rotation threat and the potential for the odd assist.

It's a credit to fantasy managers and an indication that generally people are getting more savvy with the fact that what appear to be the best option from a number of teams are currently the most selected player, including Arsenal (Bellerin), Brighton (Duffy), Burnley (Tarkowski), Man Utd (Shaw), Liverpool (Robertson) and Watford (Holebas).

I will add this vizualisation to the man menu and check back in a couple of gameweeks to see if anyone new is emerging.

How much extra value do premium defenders need to offer? Part I

2018-08-21T22:53:00.003-04:00

At this stage of the season, those of us who are statistically inclined face a bit of a dilemma. We know that too much weight should not be placed on the limited data that's available, but yet the alternative is to rely on no data and simply make your picks based on the one or two games of action you've seen, or worse, some voodoo about world class players not being able to score in August.

With this in mind, this time of year offers a good opportunity to explore a couple of other broader topics before the games start coming thick and fast and we get lost in expected goal regressions. Though data in a wider sense may not yet be stable, we can start to take some reasonable confidence from starting lineups and some of the lessons we can draw from there. Specifically here, I am interested in (a) which players offer a discount among their teammates and (b) when would we be willing to pay for the more expensive option. This is typically most useful when it comes to defenders and 'keepers as the substantial part of their value normally derives from clean sheets - which are the same for all starting players - with the difference then being their attacking potential. Two forwards are obviously much harder to compare as while they enjoy the same opponents each week, everything else is different.

What I am interested in then is, if we have a defensive line valued like this:

GK: 5.5m
DEF: 6.0m
DEF: 5.0m
DEF: 5.0m
DEF: 5.0m

and we expect them all to start essentially every game, what does the premium 6.0m defender need to do in order to justify his price tag?

The big picture benchmark
Looking at the big picture, over the course of the season you'll want to eclipse 2,000 points and probably push into that 2,200+ point range. Without chasing value too much, you should be able to have an average team value of somewhere around 102m (yes it will be higher later, but you're likely to have 8-10 weeks in that 100-101 range unless you hit on some very early risers). However, 17-18m (or more) of that value is going to be sat on the bench each week, meaning you need your ~85m squad to generate those 2,200 points. This means for every million you spend, you need to be earning somewhere around 26 points.

26 points doesn't sound like that much for elite defenders to earn, when the likes of Alonso or Bendy are more than capable of notching double digits in a single gameweek. However, remember that these points need to come from attacking sources only, as their teammates will obviously score clean sheet points at the same rate. This is a slight oversimplification as you may also be paying for increased stability of playing time, and then bonus points further cloud the issue as these can be earned for both defensive and offensive outcomes, but I'm going to put a pin in those questions for now.

If we calculate attacking points as a simple formula of goals x 6 plus assists x 3, then you end up with just six defenders who managed 26 points or more. Not 26 points more than their teammates but 26 attacking points in total. As above, this is an underestimation as we're ignoring bonus points, so if we include an estimate of their full value then you get 29 players who would have notched 26 points or more. The reality is likely then between these two numbers but I have included an estimate of bonus points in the numbers below.

2017-18 cast studies
Let's have a look at a couple of teams from last season to see this calculation in action. Note that I am using starting prices as (a) these are more widely available and (b) it lessens to variety of prices to just seven categories (4.0m, 4.5m, 5.0m . . . 7.0m) rather than having to account for every 0.1m.

Here's an example where I think the top two players are offering not just the attacking bonus but also the playing time stability, as the other centre backs in the team tended to get rotated throughout the season. Ignoring that though, we see that Azpilicueta costs 0.5m more than the pack and would have delivered around 10 more attacking points (if one CB had been consistently deployed). So this is slightly below the 26 point rate noted above but given the extra stability I think a strong argument could be made he was worth it. Similarly, the next upgrade from Azpilicueta to his Spanish colleague Alonso provided an additional 13 points, which for 0.5m equates exactly with our 26 points per million mark. In this situation then, I think it's fair to conclude that Alonso was the best pick, although as fantasy team's became saturated with him, one could make a reasonable case for Azpilicueta too.

Based on these values Harry Maguire was a no-brainer, offering a 24 point premium for just 0.5m. As the season wound on though, his price rose to 5.5m, which seems like about the equilibrium: a 1.0m premium for 24 points (in reality Maguire was worth a little less than this as he earned bonus points at a lower rate than the model suggests, but the general point remains).

Here we can see a team where no one player was able to differentiate themselves and the best selection would likely have been whoever was cheapest (assuming they had a similar chance at playing time). I've shown Watford here but the same logic applies to several teams and the lesson is not to assume that a team's best attacking option is not necessarily a worthy option.

Now we've set the context and defined what we're looking for, in the next post we'll have a first look at this year's team selections and a cautious first glance at the attacking data and see which premium defenders are off to the kind of start that might justify their price tag.

An emerging buy opportunity

2018-08-20T13:23:00.002-04:00

Just a quick post today to highlight what I think is a promising buy opportunity, not currently getting too much attention. What's on offer:

A proven midfielder who has averaged the equivalent of 31 games of action over the last 5 seasons
Currently ranked 12th among midfielders in successful passes in the final third and 9th in created chances.
Took penalties for his team last season (though that could be in jeopardy this year)
Currently just the third most owned midfielder on his team.

Sounds reasonably promising so far, but what if I added that he accumulated those impressive stats in just 43 minutes of action this season? We're of course talking about Eden Hazard. Not exactly an unknown quantity - indeed he's still owned by 12% of managers despite his fitness concerns - but with question marks surrounding arguably half of all midfielders valued at 9.0m or above, Hazard's return to fitness in a rejuvenated Chelsea side seems like a real opportunity.

Even without their talisman, Chelsea have managed 6 goals and 22 shots inside the box in their two games, trailing only City and Spurs in both categories (and surely having faced a harder schedule than their London rivals). The next 10 games see them face two top sides (MUN and TOT) although both travel to the Bridge, as do four other opponents (BOU, CAR, CPL and EVE), together forming a promising set of fixtures for the fit-again Hazard.

The arrival of "Sarri-ball" was awaited with anticipation, and while it is again far too soon to draw conclusions as yet, the two games to date have been very promising and when compared to the corresponding fixtures from prior season (at HUD and ARS at home) we see signs of improvement (again, small size warning and a note that Arsenal are a team in flux themselves):

2017-18: 25 shots, 17 SiB, 201 passes in final 3rd, 3 goals
2018-19: 37 shots, 22 SiB, 262 passes in final 3rd, 6 goals

The potential loss of penalty duties to Jorginho could be a blow, although with Chelsea doing all they can to persuade him to stay beyond the season, it's not yet certain whether that transition will indeed happen. Without too much concrete information at this stage of the season, the certainty that a fit again Hazard would bring to your side is extremely valuable, and as an early buyer you could enjoy a month or so of differentiation as others opt for Mane, Eriksen and Pogba. Those players each have their merits too, so I'm not necessarily say we can be sure Hazard is worth the extra cost above that group, but for those of you with Sanchez, De Bruyne or other City players whose minutes are causing you stress, Hazard is worth a long look this week.

For what it's worth, I was a foolish early investor in Alexis Sanchez, and with his "small issue" and United's uninspiring start to the campaign, this was a pretty easy switch for me to make before the Chilean's value presumably falls ahead of this week's visit of Spurs.

The best data categories for early gameweeks

2018-08-14T23:20:00.000-04:00

Gameweek 1 has been somewhat less dramatic than last season. With the new Friday kick off and a solid day of Saturday action under our belts I went to bed on August 12th just like any other Saturday night. A few hours later I was woken by my wife who was in labour - 7 weeks before our due date. A few more hours later our twin girls appeared and let's just say that questions around Gabriel Jesus's playing time or Paul Pogba's xG suddenly seemed somewhat trivial. Needless to say, the past year has meant I've had less time to dedicate to fantasy football, although the early starts on the weekend make watching the 7am ET games much easier.

Over the offseason I have been debating how, if at all, this blog can continue to offer value. With the prevalence of Opta's xG, my own version of a similar (but more basic) model becomes somewhat irrelevant and my absence from England means that I will never be as up to date on team news as those who live in the city, read the local press and have Sky Sports New on a loop. Time constraints also make it very hard to individually maintain a broad catalogue of data visualizations trying to monitor fixture strength, expected points, injuries, playing time and form.

My plan then is to try and focus on bigger picture pieces that try to develop a concept and provide some push back to the extreme shifts in mood that tend to fill the discussion boards of popular sites (player X is a "must own", player Y must be sold after his 2 point performance this week).

This first post then is trying to identify (a) what are the metrics we should be looking at in the early weeks to predict future success and (b) how do the current hot/cold transfer targets perform in these areas.

Correlation and stabilisation
I think a majority - or at least a large number - of fantasy managers understand the idea that a goal in gameweek one or two does not mean that player is destined for a great season. Early goals last season for the likes of Jese, Robson-Kanu, Okaka, and Okazaki were not the spark for greatness, with that group all failing to score more than one more goal for the remainder of the campaign. Of course, an early goal for Salah was indeed the first sign of an incredible season on his return to English football, so we don't want to totally ignore the early action and be slow to respond.

The area where analysis seems to typically lie at the moment is to focus on what I will call Level 2 events (with Level 1 being the actual outcome of a goal and/or assist). Level 2 events are the building blocks for goals, most notably shots of various varieties but also key passes and crosses. Over a longer enough period these events are predictive of goals and if you target them over a season you will surely enjoy success. However, here I am going to look at Level 3 events, namely the kind of actions which are indicative of a player who will ultimately create Level 2 events than will lead to goals/assists. Level 3 events include actions such as touches in the penalty box and passes in the final third of the pitch. xG is obviously an incredibly useful metric, but in these early weeks when we're still trying to work out who is likely to be in the right position to even earn/create shots, digging even deeper can be useful.

The reason I want to talk about these Level 3 events is because of the speed at which they stabilize. Taking data from last season I compared the yearly totals for players, on a per minute basis, against their cumulative totals through GW1, GW2, etc. all the way through the first 15 weeks of the season. As expected, the correlation between player totals in GW1 and GW38 is essentially non-existant in all categories: success in GW1 alone is a very poor predictor of season success. Allowing for a bit of noise as players debut at different stages, this correlation improves week-by-week so that by GW15 we have a number of metrics that correlate very well to a player's actual profile. In other words, by GW15 we have a good idea of a player's profile in terms of their ability to generate shots and create chances. The question though is whether we start to understand that profile earlier than GW15.

The interesting point here is that shots inside the box (SiB) - a metric favoured as a predictor of goals by many, including this site - takes a relatively long time to stabilise. Even after 6 gameweeks, the correlation between players' SiB per 90 minutes at that point with the rate they would ultimately post for the season was just 22%. It would take until GW13 until this rate reached the 50% mark. Conversely, the events I have dubbed "Level 3" were much quicker to stabilise, reaching that same 50% correlation level in just six or seven gameweeks. Indeed, passes in the final third eclipsed the 40% correlation rate in just 4 gameweeks. With this in mind, let's take a look at some of the names making early headlines and involved in the early transfer action, and see if this "Level 3" data offers any useful insights:

The first thing I noted here was that fantasy managers are clearly getting more savvy and you don't see a lot of absolutely terrible transfers in this list. Based on this metric alone Neves is a bit of an overreaction although he of course offers value from long range efforts and from set pieces so it's hard to push back too much on a 5.0m purchase price. Diogo Jota did eclipse his teammate in this one metric but it's too close to argue either way and Jota of course comes with a higher price tag.

I am a big fan of Paul Pogba but this table offers another notch against him. Despite playing very well in gameweek one, he still didn't get into really attacking positions and his fitness remains a concern after a long World Cup campaign. Penalty duties are of course a huge bonus but Sanchez may still take some spot kicks in the future, and even then, United scored one penalty all last season with other talented teams like Liverpool and Spurs only notching two a piece, so I'm not sure penalty duties are quite the treasure trove some seem to think (Milivojevic aside).

It's a similar story for Jorginho (who took an even more impressive penalty than Pogba) though he faces a greater threat of losing these responsibilities when Hazard returns. At 5.0m though, he comes at a significant discount so I can see the temptation. I'm surprised his teammate Kante isn't getting more buzz, although he did enter the season with a high ownership rate. His goal is one thing - coming on his only shot - but the presence of Jorginho offers the intriguing chance for the Frenchman to be released to play further upfield in this potentially exciting Chelsea lineup, as evidenced by the number of passes he received in the final third. Pedro tops this list but with Willian also playing well and Hazard close to full fitness, it's very hard to see a scenario in which the former Barcelona man gets reliable minutes. Perhaps if Hazard can take some time in a Fale 9 role in place of Morata and Giroud?

Eriksen stands out here as an outlier among the players being sold, who otherwise did indeed have generally poor GW1 games. If you liked Eriksen going into GW1 there was nothing here to concern you - but for what it's worth his fixtures and teammates' fitness remain worrisome.

The Liverpool trio of Salah, Firmino and Mane all rank highly here, adding weight to the suggestion that doubling up on Klopp's men might be a good idea. Indeed, Keita and Milner would also place highly on this list but haven't yet garnered much transfer attention as yet. If you do want to double up though, it would be a good idea to act now, as bringing in extra Reds before the GW5-8 run of games against TOT, CHE and MCI would seem ill advised.

They aren't shown in the table as they've seen minimal transfer activity to date, but the Fulham duo of Seri and Crainey both did well by this metric with 19 and 15 passes respectively. With Mitrovic racking up 8 of his own, I think we saw enough from Fulham despite their loss to not abandon them too soon.

City looked to hit the ground running despite a few absences with Aguero (9), Bernardo Silva (11), Mahrez (10) and Sterling (17) all placing well. I am very surprised that Sterling has received so little transfer interest as he's clearly an elite player who's only drawbacks are his fitness after the World Cup - which seems fine - and I suppose rotation risk. Like Pogba above, a rest day could be in his future but this game seems to suggest he is first choice when fit and thus there remains significant value despite the high price tag.

Finally, the hype around the Bournemouth group of King, Wilson and Fraser seems well deserved based on this single game with all players heavily involved. Defoe's presence on the bench is still a slight concern but in the medium term you have to like the value here given Bournemouth's reasonable fixture list.

Raising their game or feasting on the weak (or, which teams do players do well against)

2017-12-16T22:15:00.001-05:00

However good a player projection system is, it will always have certain assumptions built in which require some judgement on behalf of the model's creator. This might include how much weight to put on recent games versus historic data or how much to regress team or player conversion rates back to a league or historic average. One such assumption I do not currently factor into my own model is which kind of games a particularly player performs well in. For example, if Harry Kane accounts for 30% of his teams shots inside the box and Spurs are forecast for 10 SiB then his forecast will be three SiB regardless of who the opponents are. The strength of those opponents is of course somewhat baked into how we get to the 10 SiB projection in the first place, but no attention is paid to whether Kane has tended to over or under perform expectations against weaker or stronger teams, or whether he's struggled against teams who deploy three centre backs.

The data below takes the first steps to trying to factor that data in. Let's look at Harry Kane as an example:

I think there is a perception among some that Kane hasn't punished weaker opponents this year, which probably arose having failed to net against Burnley, Swansea and Bournemouth at home to start the season. In terms of expected goals though, we can see that he has actually excelled in all but one of his easiest fixtures (GW11 vs Crystal Palace). Generally his chart is exactly as an independent observer would expect - with him putting the sword to weaker opponents but having less potential success against stronger teams. In Kane's particular case there aren't any huge lessons here - you're not dropping him against anyone - but I do think this is a data point against necessarily captaining him without much thought to Spurs' opponent.

Let's check in with a couple of other players who have interesting profiles, then the visualization is at the bottom of the post for you to play around with.

Lukaku
Lukaku is probably the name most synonymous with feasting on weaker opponents, and this is indeed borne out in this data. In 10 fixtures which rank as easier than average, the United front man has averaged 0.8 expected goals per game, compared to seven trickier fixtures in which he's averaged just 0.3 expected goals per game. In real life this is a problem for Jose Mourinho, but in fantasy terms it's arguably beneficial to have someone who is predictably good against weaker sides and struggles against the top sides as he becomes easier to transfer in and out of your team (or captain). From GW19-24 United face only one fixture that ranks significantly harder than average in terms of xG conceded, making the Belgian a better target than I think most people realise.

Richarlison
Richarlison is generally one of the most interesting stories of the season so far, and his data here doesn't disappoint. The Brazilian has absolutely dominated in his sides tougher games, amassing 4.5 xG in 9 games against above average opponents (scoring 3 goals in the process). Yet, in eight easier games he's still netted twice but based on significantly worse underlying data (just 1.7 xG). This could potentially be a case of Richarlison excelling awat from home, where his pace can be better utilized in that inside forward role, where as at home he is perhaps getting isolated out wide as teams sit back and make Watford break them down. I don't know if this would encourage me to drop Richarlison in GW20 versus a shaky Leicester side, but it would definitely make me feel better about starting him during his away games over the holiday break (perhaps even at Man City depending on the strength of your squad).

Lacazette
This is someone I have paid attention to for the past few weeks after making a panicked transfer to bring him in when I had a big pile of cash to use on a forward (but not enough to snag Lukaku or Kane). His data isn't super interesting but it does tell a cautionary tale about relying on a single data point to make a decision. If you sort all forwards by Opta's xG then through 17 weeks you'll see Lacazette sat nicely in fifth place behind Kane, Lukaku, Aguero and Jesus i.e. right where his price tag says he should be. However, teasing the data out a bit shows that he amassed 3.0 of his 8.4 expected goals in a single fixture (GW15 vs Man Utd), without which his total for the season would be down with Okazaki and Abraham. Now, it isn't totally fair to start cherry picking games to remove from a player's season but it's worth remembering to dig into the data a bit more as we progress into the halfway point of the season and not be overly reliant on season totals on their face. On the positive side, this data shows that for the most part Lacazette has performed well in his easier fixtures, making him somewhat worth keeping in mind should Arsenal enjoy a couple of good fixtures and you need a short term fix.

I wanted to share this viz now to try and help with transfers over the busy period but will come back to it with any further players of interest I find and a corresponding viz for assist potential.

The case for the other Liverpool wide man

2017-12-08T14:34:00.000-05:00

If you are reading this then you almost certainly own Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian winger has been sensational for Liverpool this season and fantasy managers have responded by adding him to their teams by the thousand. At the time of writing is ownership is up to 51% and his value has increased by almost a million pounds since the game started. Today's piece is not about him though, but his colleague who hopes to operate on the other side of the field - Sadio Mane. A red card, injury and the form of Salah have pushed Mane out of many managers minds, but as teams begin to converge and differentiation becomes increasingly difficult, the Senegal star is a promising option.

First, a quick word on Liverpool. I think many people might be hesitant to invest close to 20 million on two Liverpool players (assuming you already have Salah) but I might suggest that fear is misplaced. They've scored just two goals less than Man United, four more than Arsenal, five more than Chelsea and ten more than Tottenham (based on Kane's 37% ownership and Eriksen / Ali's combined 30% ownership I'm assuming many manager out there has over 20 million invested in a Spurs duo). Liverpool are 3rd in shots inside the box, 3rd in total shots, 2nd in shots on target and 3rd in created chances. Opta's xG metric also places them 3rd with 29.3 expected goals to date.

While they can't match Man City's firepower, one major advantage to this Liverpool side is that there is no real question as to how the attacking options will line up when all healthy and not being rested. Salah, Mane, Coutinho and Firmino are a terrific foursome - as evidenced by some of the football on show against Spartak Moscow this week - and there's really no one knocking at the door and demanding minutes to replace them, other than when they simply need a break. There is a perception that Klopp is rotation happy, but putting aside his injuries and suspension, Mane has only been benched twice, and one of those games he didn't feature at all, which would have at least allowed your sub to come in. With Champions League football now behind us for a couple of months, I would be very surprised to see Mane miss more than the odd game over the next 6 weeks or so, and the fact he sat out against Brighton could actually be seen as a good thing, and he's less likely to be on the rotation block in the next couple weeks.

Contrast that with Man City where one of Aguero and Jesus needs to sit almost every week and the likes of Bernardo Silva and Gundogan are waiting in the wings to steal minutes from your fantasy men, or even across the city at United where only Lukaku and Pogba (when available again) are really locked into that team.

Let's have a quick look at some data for the elite midfield options, alongside a chart showing how Mane's ownership is lagging behind his production and certainly his potential:

Mane isn't in the same class as the top three picks here, although they each come with a drawback, be it saturation of ownership (Salah), price tag (Sanchez) or rotation threat (Sterling). Among the rest of the group though, Mane can certainly hold his own with my biggest concern being the lack of xA which might suggest he's a little one dimensional with his fantasy production. That said, his 1.8 CC per 90 mins and his 13% share of Liverpool's CC when he plays aren't bad numbers so there is hope that his assist threat might tick up a bit as he plays a few more games. I think the biggest shock name on here might be Hazard who doesn't seem to get much love from xG models. I suspected this was a flaw in my own numbers (my player projections don't tend to rate him as elite either) but it looks like he suffers under Opta's model too. This is worth digging into as to why Chelsea (and Hazard specifically) might be outperforming their underlying numbers, but however much you inflate him numbers, it will be tough to justify the extra 1.4m investment required to get the Belgium over Mane, based on these numbers alone (strength of fixtures and team coverage also need to be covered of course).

In the remaining six fixtures of 2017, Liverpool are set to welcome Everton, West Brom, Swansea and Leicester to Anfield, with a tricky trip to the Emirates being the only obvious concern, although even then Arsenal only rank 9th in xG conceded at home. After that there are a few tricky games over a relatively short period, but that's also getting into the new transfer period when wildcards are in play so I am personally happy to try and milk this underrated Liverpool side for the next month or so, letting everyone else put all their money into Chelsea or keep it in a Spurs side who have failed to hit the expected heights so far this year.

Bench pressing

2017-11-16T21:10:00.000-05:00

As alluded to in last week's post about Guardiola's "wild" rotation (or lack thereof), I am currently of the opinion that the various City options that are available (plus a couple of other elite players around the league) are so good that it is worth absorbing the inevitable rotation hits that come, even as those punches start to increase in number over the busy holiday period. One of the risks and possible downsides here is that with rotation generally not being something one can plan around (unlike, say, actual injuries or suspensions), the characteristics of your bench need to be tweaked somewhat.

Two key points need to be changed in my own personal bench strategy. First, I need to pay more attention to it. I am generally pretty focused on maintaining a good substitute keeper that rotates nicely with the other option and then one other sub, but after that I do not prioritise having a deep bench. Second, because you won't necessarily be able to choose when to deploy your bench options, I think you are better focusing on higher frequency scoring events such as clean sheets or bonus points rather than just goals. For example, if 2 players are each expected to play 90 minutes in each of the next six games with one projected for 3 - 3 - 5 - 2 - 3 - 3 points where as the other is projected for 2 - 3 - 4 - 7 - 2 - 2 then while the second player is expected to score an extra point overall, one can make the argument that seeing as you expect to deploy this player just once or twice, you are better off with the 5/6 chance of earning more than 2 points with player one than the 3/6 chance with player two. Of course, this only applies to an extent and if there is a bargain player who offers significant scoring potential then they are obviously the better pick.

The below table shows midfielders and forwards available for under 5.0m (though you can set the threshold as you wish) and plots the percentile they fall into with regards to:

the share of their team's BPS they account for (which I am using a proxy for bonus point potential),
clean sheets (for midfielders only)
expected goals
expected assists

I have highlighted a few names below the chart that I will personally be considering as stocking stuffers for the holiday season.

Tom Carroll
Carroll has a bit of a cult following in fantasy circles though despite his promising underlying numbers he hasn't really been able to produce much by way of concrete returns. Here though we're interested not just in his assist potential but also Swansea's reasonable clean sheet record and his solid share of BPS which suggest bonus points could flow his way, especially given Swansea's lack of established stars. However, the model doesn't really like Swansea's defense going forward and their opponents in January - TOT, @NEW, LIV, ARS - make me nervous. Still, he's played every game and doesn't look likely to lose his place to the ineffective Sanches and so for 4.5m Carroll remains a reasonable bench option.

Nemanja Matic
Matic was one of the players I had in mind when considering this strategy and the data supports this thought process to a degree. What you're buying here is a very high chance of a clean sheet to accompany an almost guaranteed appearance, though bonus points are always going to be hard to come by with several other good players in this United side. I would prefer Matic at 4.5m as you are really not getting a great deal of offensive threat here but the fixtures from mid-December to mid-January are so good that one could easily see him racking up five clean sheets in eight games, which is just as good as a goal but spread evenly over the fixture list.

N'Golo Kante
Kante was the other player I had in mind when I started this and he too looks like a decent fit here. Chelsea's defense isn't quite as good as United's to date, although the model likes them slightly more in the coming weeks. Kante also provides a fairly significant increase in attacking potential, though again doesn't offer much by way of bonus point potential with other players like Morata and Azpilicueta attracting the lion's share to date. Given his increased attacking threat and Chelsea's incredibly favourable run of fixtures in December and January, Kante is my number one pick here, even at a slight premium to some of the other bargain basement picks.

Tom Cleverley
Richarlison has rightly won the plaudits in this Watford midfield and Doucoure has received serious backing having notched 4 goals to date already, but I actually quite like the unheralded Cleverley as a bench option here. The former United man actually has a slightly higher xG than Doucoure (though neither offers much to get overly excited about with Doucoure's 4 goals from 5 SoT incredibly unsustainable) though it's once again his ability to chip in across the categories we're interested in. Watford's defense projects reasonable well despite being leaky of late and another healthy of fixtures over the holidays look promising.
I'm still not entirely convinced by this strategy, with the other alternative being to grab 13 or 14 affordable players to build a balanced squad where your bench options can offer more than just scraps. With Aguero's potential injury I was considering this alternative strategy but I can't see not owning the Argentine, Kane and Salah when healthy which pretty much rules out a totally balanced side. Thus I will try and spend the next couple of weeks strengthening my awful bench for the inevitable rash of rotation frustration coming our way.

On Guardiola's rotation

2017-11-07T21:59:00.000-05:00

There seems to be a growing chorus that Man City players are becoming harder and harder to own due to constant rotation from Pep Guardiola. There are two key pieces of information that are useful to assess how damaging rotation can be to a player:

The predictability of when the rotation happens (before of after Champions League games, away from home etc),
If not selected for the first team, how often do they come on as a sub. If you have a decent bench then - while frustrating - you can deal with players not playing at all. However, if they consistently come off the bench for only 15 minutes or so then you are lowering your odds at success.

Predicting team sheets is not really my forte (nor a particular interest) so we're going to focus on the second point here:

We can see four of the City options have spent time on the bench this season while De Bruyne and Silva have been ever present to date. The calculation for this pair is slightly different as you're getting increased certainty but with lower upside (their 5.8 and 5.5 points per appearance trail their teammates). De Bruyne also comes at a fairly significant premium which personally excludes him from consideration for my own team which I am looking to spread the wealth more evenly, but I can see the appeal of the Belgium's overall package.

Let's look at the other two midfielders first: Sane and Sterling. Each has spent some time on the bench, though Sane is coming off 6 straight starts and has clearly won the confidence of Guardiola despite his young age. The first point to note is how incredible this pair have been to date. For simplicity's sake I am going to continue to use points per game (PPG) numbers here (where as I would usually prefer underlying stats) but I do so with the confidence that their success has been anything but a fluke.

In his 7 starts, Sane has averaged 8.1 PPG, while Sterling slightly eclipses him with 8.2 PPG in his 6 starts. For comparison, the 25% owned Eriksen is averaging 5.7 PPG while his 21% owned teammate Alli is further behind with just 4.9 PPG. Thus, while it is extremely frustrating to have your player on the bench, you need to keep in mind that when they play, they are really operating on another level of production so far this season.

On the subject of being benched, between them, this duo have been benched 7 times, getting some playing time on all but one occasion. With the busy holiday period on the horizon I think these rest numbers could increase somewhat and there might be occasions where these players are completely left out of the days action, but, when they have been on the field for a short cameo, the results have been far from a disaster. In their 7 sub appearances, Sterling and Sane have averaged just 24 minutes but a frankly absurd 4.1 PPG. This number is of course skewed by Sane's brace against Liverpool but still, the pair have delivered returns in 3 of their 7 sub appearances. For reference, that 4.1 PPG compares favorably to how players like Firmino (4.3) or Ozil (3.3) have been performing while playing full matches.

Let's put together a scenario to see how this could play out, using Sterling as an example (who my model likes marginally more but you could replace with Sane without changing the conclusion):

In 10 games over the holidays, Sterling will get 7 starts, 2 sub appearances and will be dropped totally for one game. If he continues to average 7 PPG in those starts and 3 points coming off the bench then he'd accumulate 55 points. We'll then throw in another 2 points for your bench player who will replace him when he misses out. So a total of 57 points for an investment of 13.2m (8.2m for Sterling (or less if you've held him for a while) plus a 5.0m scrub on the bench who just needs to show up).

How else can we piece together such a return? Assuming we could find a player who will start every game over the holidays (doubtful) we're still struggling. Mahrez? 5.1 PPG. Mikhitaryan? 4.7 PPG. The pricier Alli? 4.9 PPG. Eriksen's 5.7 PPG would get you to the 57 points but you've spent 1.5m more money and need him to play every week just to break even. If you played the fixtures well, you might be able to do something with Richarlison and another mid-level option, but then, you can easily afford those players alongside Sterling anyway and it isn't like there is five of them to build a balanced, mid-range midfield (in fact, the list gets extremely limited after Richarlison, maybe Ramsey, I suppose Groß).

Let's build this the other way. Let's assume one of the above options can get you 50 points. At 7 points a start and 3 points per sub appearance, Sterling would need just 5 starts and 4 sub appearances to match that output. Then you've got to factor in the huge upside of him playing more due to injuries to others, being more productive off the bench etc, getting extended sub-minutes after City wrap up the game in the first 45 minutes etc.

Up front, one could conclude that the presence of Lukaku, Morata and Kane makes Aguero easier to ignore as they are ready made options who provide a great balance of upside and certainty. But, if you believe in his numbers to data, Aguero is operating on another level, averaging over 9 PPG compared to the ~6 PPG offered by his peers. This means that if Lukaku has continued his 5.8 PPG rate over the full 10 games, 5 games of Aguero plus 5 games of a bench scrub would also come to the same total (5x9 + 5x2 = 55 points). Throw in the fact that most people feel you need two of these elite forwards, and you now need to find two of these options who can match Aguero's prowess if you are going to ignore him.

Jesus is arguably the easiest player of the bunch to ignore given his more modest PPG total (6 in starts, 5.4 overall) and his relative lack of stature in the team.I It's true that City lack great depth up top, but Guardiola has also only deployed both his front men in 4 of 11 fixtures this season, and not since GW5 and one has to feel that Aguero gets slightly more games than his young teammate, all else being equal (Sterling or Sane could even be deployed up top if needed). If you are looking to really spread your money across the team though, I can still see a scenario in which the Brazilian makes sense.

Risks to this analysis
There are, of course, risks to this analysis. The most obvious is probably that City slow down and the gap their players enjoy over their peers is cut. This is definitely possible but I haven't seen many flags in their data to suggest it's on the horizon. You're also not locking anything in either, so if that does happen you are still well placed to jump ship for the other options discussed above. The next risk is that by using such a crude measure (PPG) we are being too simplistic and not accounting for quality of opponent.

However, over a 10 game run you are going to get a reasonable averaging out of opponents and in this particular case, City's 10 game stretch from Dec 3 - Jan 20 is arguably no harder than their fixtures to date, with only three fixtures looking really tough on paper (@MUN, TOT and @LIV although the latter might even be a stretch given the way City massacred Klopp's men in GW4).

My own approach
Personally I am happy to absorb the risk associated by Aguero, Sterling or Sane but will place extra emphasis on sorting out my bench to ride the inevitable benchings. This City side is special and with several mid-priced options available to get access to it, I simply think the opportunity is too good to pass up.

One small side note, is that when selecting my bench I am going to lean more towards certainty of playing time and look to players who might log consistent extra points from clean sheets or bonus points, knowing that they will be called into action but without me being able to choose when to deploy them. This means that players like Kante and Matic will come into play, more so than the likes of Choupo-Moting or Ince who project well but lack the consistent returns to justify the higher price tag given their specific role in my team.

Expected Goals - a comparison with Opta

2017-11-01T22:53:00.000-04:00

The popularity of "expected goals" as a metric has exploded over the past year or so, with mainstream TV broadcasts now starting to dip their toes in the water of advanced analytics. One inevitable, if slightly unfortunate, consequence is that there are now multiple xG models, which could potentially disagree by a reasonable amount, which to those who need a bit more persuasion as to the merits of statistical analysis, might suggest a lack of accuracy. This has somewhat been the case in baseball with the two big "Wins Above Replacement" (WAR) metrics sometimes disagreeing by a relatively large amount, especially when it comes to valuing pitchers. There is sound methodology behind each metric, of course, but for those who aren't well versed in the intricacies of the debate, the differences can be distracting and serve as fuel for those who want to dismiss analytics and focus on old fashioned "eyeball tests" etc.

I, of course, have my own model which probably predates a lot that are currently around but also lacks some of complexity that is now possible with the proliferation of individual event-by-event data from Opta, which allows one to do a better job at understanding the likelihood of a goal based on the exact location of a shot. My concern is that this model is confusing issues, although with my readership of 15 people against the millions of people exposed to Opta stats, this isn't a huge concern!

Nevertheless, let's first take a look at how different my model is than Opta's, then have a look at a few examples of the kind of player my model gets wrong, and then finally a few words on why you should continue (or start!) to care about the projected data in these electronic pages.

The above data is only based on 2017-18 data and the correlation looks very promising (an 88% r-squared is likely distorted a bit by a high volume of players with very low xG, but still, you can see a strong correlation between the two models and not many wild outliers), especially as there is still something of a small sample size issue with just 10 games in the bag. In terms of looking historically to analyse a game that has happened there is no argument that the Opta model is more sophisticated than mine but I am happy that the data here shows that what I've been offering is at least based in science and comparable to those more learned than I (thanks to ill advised transfers and a failure to heed my own advice, the league position of my own fantasy team doesn't always give the same assurances).

We can however see a few names whose xG varies quite significantly between the models and I want to highlight a couple of these to illustrate where my numbers need to be taken a pinch of salt:

Harry Kane vs Romelu Lukaku
Readers will know that my model loves Kane and he's been the top ranked player for much of the season. However the Opta model liks Lukaku a little more to date with the United man being worth almost a half goal more than his Spurs rival. In terms of sheer volume of shots, this outcome is hard to compute, with Kane taking 20 more shots than Lukaku and outshooting him 38 to 31 inside the box (all in one game fewer after this week's hamstring issue). If you want to take one step further away from shots then Kane still enjoys an advantage with 67 touches in the box to Lukaku's 54. Opta's model therefore must see some additional value in the quality of those chances, which is somewhat hinted at in his 12 big chances compared to Kane's 10. United have been more clinical, converting 18/29 (62%) of their big chances and 21/94 (22%) of their SiB compared to marks of 11/20 (55%) and 16/98 (16%) respectively for Spurs, though this argument gets a bit circular as others would argue that this efficiency is an effect of Lukaku's presence rather than Lukaku's conversion rate being a product of the team.

In short, the difference here isn't huge but is noteworthy and I will try and tweak my model a bit to increase the weighting given to team conversion rates (this data is factored in, but especially at this early stage of the season I heavily regress it back to league averages).

Man City
I feel like everything I write this season includes a section on Harry Kane and Man City and so here we go again. We can see that the Opta model rates Sane and Jesus's seasons significantly higher than mine, though interestingly Sterling and particularly Aguero are much closer (with the Argentine being almost 1:1). Like Lukaku above, this is almost certainly a recognition of the quality of City's chances, although watching the games I would have thought Sterling would really benefit from this as he seems to have gotten multiple tap ins this year with his pace enabling him to catch up with counter attacks and arrive at the far post for a square ball and easy goal. Still, this one makes total sense and will again be helped by an increased weighting in team conversion rates. Although, I don't think folks really need a model to tell them that this team is red hot, and the decision is really between Sane, Silva and Sterling or Aguero and Jesus, and adjusting the team rate wouldn't help you there.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting and Andy Carroll
This unlikely group of players is a cautionary tale of over-valuing solid stats from players on poor teams and could possibly be awarded the Adel Taarabt Memorial Trophy. I will focus on Calvert-Lewin because I own him and have thus paid most attention to his games (enduring 90 minutes of Everton with regularity is true dedication). The leaderboard among forwards in SiB goes Kane, Lukaku, Aguero, Morata, Lacazette, Calvert-Lewin, Jesus. One of those things is not like the others. That group ranks 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 10th among forwards in fantasy points and Lazazette has the worst goal haul with five. Calvert-Lewin is 25th among forwards with a measly 25 points and zero goals. Here I think the issue is both a team problem (Everton have converted just 6/66 (9%) SiB) and Calvert-Lewin himself, who just doesn't seem to be taking quality shots and, watching the games, he is lively but really doesn't seem like someone with crippling bad luck. He's hit the target six times, which in a vacuum would suggest more like 1-2 goals rather than zero, and there remains solid reasons for not overly focusing on SoT over SiB due to small sample size noise, but still, I think there's probably a gap in the model and also in my common sense in overly relying on it when it comes to players racking up shot totals without digging a little deeper as to their quality. This one is harder to fix without the advanced data so it might just be a case of raising those flags before highlighting this kind of player for potential success.

Looking forward
The pleasing thing about this bit of analysis is that while we can definitely identify blind-spots in my model, it's close enough to the Opta version to suggest we're on the right path. The reason this is exciting is because by basing the xG on simple events like shots and SiB, I feel we have a good chance at predicting future xG, which becomes trickier if you are trying to forecast not only how many shots Harry Kane will get, but where he will take them from, where the defenders will be, who passed to him etc. I hope that team shot data stabilises relatively quickly and is less impacted by individual idiosyncratic events and thus we can use it with some certainty to predict team totals which can be allocated to each player to give us our predicted shots to form the basis of xG.

I am not of course suggesting in any way that my model is as good as some of the others out there at determining why what happened, happened, but in terms of translating that data into predictive information I think we're in a good place and I'm fairly happy with how the model is working for now.

Gameweek 11 Projections

2017-11-01T13:11:00.002-04:00

Gameweek 9: Expected Points (or, a tale of one City)

2017-10-19T22:14:00.001-04:00

I don't recall there ever being a side in the Premier League with so many viable fantasy options. The 2009-10 Chelsea side that scored 102 goals had Drogba, Lampard, Anelka and Malouda all with double digit goals but there's a non-zero chance that this City side could have four players approaching those totals by the holidays plus two of the best two creative players in the league in Silva and De Bruyne.

This week they have the top five xP players - which is simply absurd - and even Sane could be argued to be higher as he's currently still being penalised for his early season sub appearances (though with Aguero back I'd personally argue they remain a risk). The real heartbreaker is that this game against Burnley looks delicious and someone is going to be benched and disappoint a lot of managers. Everyone except Aguero played midweek against Napoli so there are no clues there, but this is in theory the third game in which Aguero was fit enough play after his broken rib so you have to feel he's in with a good chance of displacing someone. It also wouldn't be a huge surprise to see Gundogan get some minutes here or there. Of course, there's nothing that can be done other than make sure you have a deep enough bench to absorb the blow and brace yourself for disappointment somewhere around 2:30pm on Saturday.

Kane's ranking shows that to a degree he is a fixture proof, though the model is certainly tempering expectations compared to his prior month of action. Reports of his demise are absurdly premature though.

The big surprise here is Lukaku, who I was personally considering for my captain given the risk noted above for my City players. The model believes in this Huddersfield side's defense, whose 5 goals conceded at home put them solidly in the middle of the pack, with their +/- numbers being even stronger after their home record was blown up by Spurs in GW7. United meanwhile have been somewhat pedestrian away from home with +/- numbers of -43% (Liverpool), -21% (Southampton) and 5% (Stoke) following their impressive display at Swansea in GW2 (60%). With goals in three of those fixtures Lukaku has shown he can score without needing too many chances but his points hauls of 6 ,6, 7 and 2 away from Old Trafford do show that he probably lacks the consistent upside of an Aguero or Kane.

Points vs Expected Points: Gameweek 8

2017-10-19T20:09:00.000-04:00

Given the short gameweek, I only have one main topic this week: Man City (and then a couple of words on Harry Kane).

Whether you just saw the goals, highlights or whole game, there was no denying how impressive City's demolishing of Stoke was this week. All six of their starting midfielders and forwards amassed at least 31 points under the official BPS system, compared to just two players total from United, Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool and Arsneal (Bakayoko and Eriksen). Jesus was given the most points under that system (which overvalues goals in my opinion), De Bruyne was awarded Man of the Match at the stadium while Sterling earned the most fantasy points thanks to his goal, two assists and bonus points. In short, there's a lot of talent to go around here. Two things jumped out this week about this City side that need a bit of exploring:

1. It's increasingly difficult to select just three City players given the talent on offer. Silva, Sterling and Mane are all performing incredibly well, especially given their reasonable price tags, while Aguero and Jesus are first and fourth among all forwards in points despite missing time through rotation and injury respectively. Finally, the defense projects as the best in the league in many metrics, making Otamendi and Stones very attractive options for under 6.0m.

While the defense has been good - with 5 clean sheets already - this week's couple of sloppy moments against Stoke remind us how fragile clean sheets can be and with City in free scoring mode, I wonder just how committed they will be to keeping opponents out when they're three and four goals up every week. If they had a player who looked to be heavily involved on at attacking front too I would probably stick with him, but Otamendi projects as the best attacking threat with a good-but-not-great profile and so I can't help but conclude that the best way forward is with a couple of midfielders and one of the forwards from this dynamic side.

2. Which of those players I would select brings me to the second point. Without seeing the game one might think City were a touch fortunate, given that they scored 7 goals on 12 SiB and 11 SoT. Both those totals are of course great - and led the league this week - but they'd generally be more suggestive of a 3 or 4 goal haul rather than a 7 goal demolition. Now in part the team probably was a touch "lucky" - Fernandino likely won't hit another shot like that for a while and Bernardo Silva's effort took a bit of fortune to setup - but on the other hand, they really did feel like they would score every time they went forward. Between them, the six goalscorers registered 8 shots on target and scored 7 times. Some regression is coming but we also need to concede that a chance created by that De Bruyne pass is not the same as a Oxlade-Chamberlain cross wildly thrashed into the box.

Other expected goal measures account for this for past events (based on positions shot were taken from) but I don't know if we have a good grasp on how to project this going forward other than to mentally note that xG totals for the likes of Aguero and Jesus may well be suppressed in the model due a lack of recognition of the quality of player they are working with. Without having the more detailed Opta data my options are a bit limited but my idea is to work in the G vs xG vs shot data thar's available into my team conversion rates to try and capture this nuance.

**Side note: thanks to follower @fisksektionen for reminding me to figure out why Sane was absent from the upper tier of the model forecast. It turns out I had missed an accent over the e-acute which messed up the lookup formula. He's now right up there, alongside teammate De Bruyne**

Harry Kane
7 expected points on a league best 6 shots (3 SiB): he'll be just fine. 86,000 managers aren't as convinced and have sold Kane this week, though that move if defensible if it's a short term play to flip over to Aguero, Jesus or even Morata while Kane endures three tough opponents in the next four games. Indeed, in two of the corresponding fixtures last season - Liverpool (H) and United (A) - Kane didn't notch a single SiB. It's fair to say he's elevated his game somewhat since then though so I wouldn't be too despondent about holding onto the England frontman, especially with that oh-so-juicy sweetener against Palace sandwiched in the middle of those tougher fixures and then a run of games that takes you well past the holidays with only one - Man City (A) really scary game.

Gameweek 8 Projections (or, why can I only have three Spurs players?)

2017-10-12T22:08:00.001-04:00

Captain Notes
Despite not boasting an overly impressive set of results to date, the model rates Liverpool's defense quite highly and thus perennial captain option Lukaku is well down this week's rankings. Morata is a injury risk which is unfortunate given Chelsea's visit to lowly Palace, although even if fully fit the model is not enamored with the Spaniard thanks to so-so shot data for Chelsea on their travels. While they've racked up a very impressive 8 goals in 3 games, they've done so on just 21 SiB and 12 SoT, which makes the model cautious of future regression. For context, Arsenal have 20 SiB and 8 SoT in their three away trips and have yet to score.

With Aguero out and City at home, Jesus is a very real option and I might have him second on my own adjusted list. He gets a good share of City's chances when on the pitch (24%) and while his SiB numbers cannot match the likes of Kane or Lukaku, his Big Chances per 90 minutes are right up there and he looks well placed to get on the scoresheet again. Of course, going by the model that is all moot, as if you own Kane you will surely captain him. The only question is whether or not to give him the triple captaincy. The model ranks this as tied for his second best fixture in the next 12, with the top option strangely coming on the road thanks to Watford's stupendously awful defensive start to the season (41 SiB surrendered in three games with a SiB- +/- of 61%). Gun to my head I'd play the odds with the GW11 fixture at home to Palace but the certainty of knowing Kane is fit right now, and not coming off a massive fixture against Real - as he will be in GW11 - is not to be ignored.

The left field (well, left back, (sorry)) option based on the model is Ben Davies - who is now widely owned but not necessarily considered in the same light as his more esteemed colleagues. However, the model gives Davies a ~40% chance at a clean sheet, a 60% chance at an assist and a 20% chance of a goal so one might argue that the chance of him drawing a 2-point blank is arguably lower than Kane (who has done so four times this season). Again though, it's very hard to ignore Kane.

Quick rental option
If your team is in good shape then you might have the privilege of bringing in a player for just one or two gameweeks. For example, I knew I wanted Sterling in the medium term in place of the ineffectual Mahrez but with City travelling to Chelsea and United facing Palace at home I brought in Martial as a one week loan (with so-so results as Martial was limited to bench duty but did manage to nab a sneaky assist).

This week there is likely to be plenty of movement among elite forwards with injuries to Morata and Aguero, and uncertainty around Lukaku's status (not to mention a tricky trip to Anfield). As noted above, Jesus is the obvious pick and I see him as more than a one or two week play but many managers - including your lowly blogger - are already maxed out on City options so would need to look elsewhere.

I know Vardy has received buzz in this category but he has his own injury issues and so I'm going to go with Lacazette as a player I might target for 1 - 3 gameweeks while I wait for the dust to settle after the turmoil among the other elite forwards. His numbers don't generally blow me away but Watford has been miserable at home and with Ozil and Sanchez potentially both in the side, the chances should be plentiful for the Frenchman.

Points vs Expected Points: Gameweek 7

2017-10-09T17:37:00.000-04:00

With 8 clean sheets and big performances from the likes of Spurs, United and to a degree Arsenal, there were points a plenty this week, though as we can see above, not all those performances were necessarily backed up by the underlying stats. A couple of names to focus on here:

Alexis Sanchez
The model liked the Arsenal man as the best performer of the week with 10 expected points on 8 shots (4 SiB) and 6 CC. The "three elite forward" strategy which was en vogue for all of 2 weeks has been devastated by injuries to Aguero, Morata and Lukaku and so managers are now looking back to elite midfielders to lead their team and Sanchez is well placed to potentially fill that role. His incredibly low ownership number of just 3%, plus his earlier price fall make him an incredible opportunity to turn a profit if (or should we say when) his actual points haul starts matching his xP. Arsenal's fixtures are good but not spectacular as they face City and Spurs in GW10 and 11 and the model doesn't think they're in the same league as City or their North London rival, but you have to also factor in that Sanchez will likely represent a huge share of Arsenal's SiB and CC and is about as locked into the team as one can be when healthy (the lack of Champions League involvement could be a rule boost there too).

Fantasy squads are built as a whole, so looking at one or two individual spots in isolation isn't always useful, but if you'll permit a thought experiment, consider this. You need to fill two spots: a forward and a midfielder, and you currently have Lukaku at 11.6m and Silva at 8.4m (i.e. 20m). If you like Sanchez at 11.9m then who is the forward who balances the equation for 8.1m? Vardy is close enough in price to be doable, as is Firmino, and then you have the next group of the likes of Rashford and Welbeck (though you likely wouldn't want to go double Arsenal). This model isn't perfect of course, but, accepting it's limitations, and looking at that group you see players projected for somewhere around the 60 point mark, a full 20-30 points behind the elite forwards. That puts a lot of pressure of Sanchez to make up the difference given that the likes of Salah, Silva, Eriksen and Alli all bring a similar level of job security and are looking at points hauls of around 70 themselves.

Based on the above - very rough - maths, Sanchez would need to be getting into Kane-level returns to justify his premium price above those other top midfielders and that's hard to project right now. Of course, you only have to go back to last season so see such a level of performance and if any midfield option can do it, it would surely be Sanchez, but I think the conclusion for now is that we need to see this week's performance level and maybe more over a couple of sustained weeks before he makes logical sense, although for those looking to gain ground on teams already, he offers a rare opportunity to own one of the best handful of players in the league without sharing his inevitable returns with everyone else.

Shane Long
In some ways the elite players in the league can seem to cancel each other out, either because a huge portion of fantasy managers own them, or because they offer equally good value to another option who costs a similar price (see the recent Kane vs Lukaku vs Aguero vs Morata contest). Where you can make a sneaky difference is around the edges of your first team: players who need to play almost every week but need to come at a discount price. I'm not sure he's there yet but Shane Long's appearance in a prominent place on this week's chart highlights the Irishman's return to favour at Southampton and continues a decent run in Pellegrino's side. Over the past three gameweeks Long is tied with Aguero and Kane for the most touches in the opponent's box (22) and has racked up 7 SiB, just one behind Lacazette and Vardy and two behind the all conquering Kane.

There is some concern around the quality of those shots but for what it's worth Understat ranked his xG for this week's game as 0.54, exactly the same as Kane against Huddersfield, so it seems at least some of the shots were quality. I still like Calvert-Lewin and Joselu's potential in the budget group but not one is doing a great deal to stand out right now which opens the door for someone like Long to get a look in if Southampton can get back on track in the next month which features games against NEW (H), WBA (H), BHA (A) and BUR (H).

*After writing the above I now see that Long missed tonight's Ireland v Wales game, so obviously check his status if you did want to make a move.

Richarlison
Not a great deal to say here, other than that it's amazing people aren't on the Brazilian yet. To date 90,000 managers have brought him in - which isn't nothing - but it's less than the 97,000 who have opted for his teammate Doucoure, who has exactly 3 SiB and 3 SoT on the season (albeit all of which have become goals). Richarlison meanwhile is 2nd among midfielders in touches in the opponent's box, total shots and SiB. Even his 10 CC isn't terrible for a mid-level player focused on scoring rather than setting up others (ahead of Salah and Mahrez and tied with Willian).

Watford get Arsenal this week then face a tough trip to Chelsea so perhaps managers are wisely waiting until after that to pickup Richarlison but I urge you to keep him in mind at that point, even if he's kept quiet for those tricky games, as Watford then face only two really tough fixtures in the next 12.

Kevin De Bruyne
I have heard some talk that De Bruyne is widely considered to be the best player of the 2017-18 season as we approach the quarter-way mark. I am not particularly interested in debating that suggestion but I am interested in this kind of discussion's impact from a fantasy perspective. A player's overall ability is not a huge concern for fantasy purposes - other than I suppose the small impact on earning bonus points - but rather it's simply about racking up goals and assists. In terms of assists, there are few, if any, better placed that the young Belgian. He leads the league with 24 CC and with elite teammates getting on the end of them, not to mention a large chunk of them coming from set pieces, from which De Bruyne clearly excels, there is no arguing his assist potential is sky high. However, his teammate Silva trails him by just a single created chance and has notched six "big chances" created to De Bruyne's three, most likely due to the advanced areas behind the front two that Silva has been occupying of late. Either way though, let's call it a tie.

The goal threat however is far from close. Silva has racked up 9 SiB with 3 "big chances" in the first 7 gameweeks, compared to just 2 SiB for De Bruyne and 0 big chances. Of course, the Belgian has 12 efforts from outside the box and will no doubt ripple the net a couple of times this year thanks to his quality, but history shows that SoB are converted at a low rate, even for a player of De Bruyne's quality. Consider that last season he converted 54 SoB in 4 goals (a 7% rate) and the season before that he notched 2 goals on 27 SoB (7%). This season he has a single goal from 12 SoB for, you an 8% conversion rate. This puts him on track for something like a 5 or 6 goal season if he plays every week. Now, the retort could be that Silva is yet to find the net at all, but give me the player who's shooting from inside the box will regularity and has averaged over 5 goals a season over the past three despite playing just an average of 26 games any day of the week.

Factor in Silva's 1.5m lower price tag and I find it hard totify De Bruyne's 17% ownership. In fact, I could make a decent argument he's the 4th ranked City midfielder I would own, given the additional chances Sterling and Sane should get in the side with Aguero sidelined.

Wilcard resources

2017-10-07T15:59:00.003-04:00

As we sit in the middle of another dull international week, many managers will be tempted to play (or have already played) that wildcard chip.

With that in mind, I wanted to link to a few resources that I have posted over the past few weeks that might be useful

Overall player projection - projected points for the next 12 gameweeks

Player share of key stats - the percentage of their team's SiB and CC that each player has accounted for

Points vs Expected Points - a quick way to highlight players who have underperformed their underlying stats to date and could see increased fortunes in the future with improved conversion rates.

Performance vs prior season - see how players have performed in this season's fixtures compared to the same fixture last season

Team snapshot and projection - which teams are performing best and who do you need to secure coverage for?

Defender selector - which defender gives the best combination of value and attacking threat within each team?

Differentiators - whose ownership numbers remain surprisingly low?

Finding a differentiator

2017-10-07T15:35:00.003-04:00

One of the downsides of the premierleague.com fantasy game is the fact that every manager has the same access to every player, which can cause teams to converge as the season goes on. This can lead to the conclusion that we need ways to differentiate our teams to try and gain some advantage over the pack. I would suggest there is some danger in chasing this idea too much as ultimately you need to be chasing points, not just unique points but there is of course some value to having players who offer something a bit different.

The below visualization shows the standard points vs expected points chart but with the marks colour coded based on ownership. The bluer marks are the players everyone seems to own (Lukaku, Kane, Salah etc) while the orange marks show the players flying below the radar.

The first observation is that the vast majority of players are in very few teams so your search for differentiators doesn't need to go too deep. You don't need to be looking at the 4th defender on Brighton's backline to find a variable: Monreal, for example, is the third highest scoring defender to date but is owned by just 6% of teams. The second point to note is that if you look at the ownership charts of the players at the top end of range, they are generally increasing so it's only going to get harder to separate your side from the pack.

A couple of players that stand out for me:

Richarlison (MID, WAT, 6.1m, 6% owned)
As noted above, I think people can get too cute when it comes to looking for differentiators. A team's 3rd of 4th best option might have a nice run but over a few games it's likely that their chances will start to diminish, unless they're in a truly special team (such as Sterling and Sane at City). The beauty with Richarlison is that he is arguably Watford's best player, accounting for 29% of Watford's SiB and 17% of their CC, ranking 1st and 2nd respectively (he trails Holebas in CC). There just aren't that many mid-level midfielders that excite me at the moment and so with so many managers looking to spend 30m+ up top, I am surprised there hasn't been more interest in the Brazilian. Back to back goals in GW6 and GW7 seem to have started to move the ownership needle though.

Sterling (MID, MCI, 7.9m, 6% owned)
This pick may look contradictory based on the suggestion that you shouldn't get too cute with your picks, but such is the potential of this City side, any way to access it is worth consideration. With Aguero out for perhaps 6 weeks there are additional minutes to go around, which should open things up a bit for Sterling (and Sane). Sane has of course outscored Sterling to date but his playing time has been so limited that's it hard to project anything with much certainty. Sterling is not a certainty himself but I prefer his combination of potential and playing time as an additional way to get access to the City juggernaut.

Joselu (FWD, NEW, 5.5m, 1% owned)
The Newcastle man's low ownership is a bit of a puzzle as for anyone who wants two elite options up front plus a selection of expensive midfielders, they need a cheap forward to round out their team and Joselu is about as good as anyone in terms of points to date in that group. His expected points total is even better and with a continued run in the side and a bit more adventure from Newcastle, one could see Joselu being a 8-12 goal man who can be deployed when the fixtures look best. The fact that he's the third most owned forward on his own team is a nice little bonus.

Individual game performance this season vs last season

2017-10-03T20:53:00.000-04:00

Readers of this blog will likely be comfortable with the idea that one way in which we tend to mis-evaluate a player's performance to date is to focus too much on outcomes and not enough on process i.e. on goals and not shots. This problem, of course, is what stats like expected goals (xG) try to combat, as does simply looking at underlying stats rather than focusing on goals or assists.

Another area for caution is to adjust for the opponents an individual player has faced. A player may well be good value for their 3 goals in 3 games based on their underlying stats, but if those all came in games against Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Swansea then it doesn't necessarily mean they will enjoy future success when the opponents get tougher. This is implicitly factored into the player projections, which are based on individual opponents but there are holes in the model that can need to be recognized.

For example, the model allocates a team's projected shots to individual players based on the percentage of their teams shots they have accounted for in the past, but what about the scenario where a player feasts on weaker sides, accounting for 30-40% of his team's total shots, but goes quiet against the stronger sides? This is a fairly nuanced point and one that isn't immediately obvious how to embed in a model across the entire population.

The below visualization therefore attempts to fill this void a bit, just as a sense check for how you think an individual player has been performing. Each player's SiB and CC in games this season are plotted against how they performed in the respective fixture last season. We're only showing games where a player logged more than 45 minutes in each fixture, so you won't necessarily see every game from this season on there. More marks in the bottom-right, orange section speak to a player who has been stronger against a like-for-like fixture in the current campaign (see Harry Kane's SiB) where as more marks towards the top left show that they performed better last season (see Nathan Redmond's SiB). Hovering over each mark will show the opponent and in aggregate can help build a bit of nuance as to where the player is succeeding or failing this season compared to last.

Points vs Expected Points: Gameweek 6

2017-09-27T19:49:00.005-04:00

Elite forwards
It was quite a week for the league's leading forwards with five of the seven 10 million pound men all finding the back of the net at least once (the other two - Jesus and Zlatan - were not in action). Kane owners were feeling smug after his 13 point haul in the early game, only for him to be eclipsed by Morata and almost matched by Aguero later in the day, while Lacazette sent a reminder to the league that he is another talented option with a brace on Monday night.

There is an emerging theory that one must own three of these elite options, and make up the difference elsewhere in your team with reasonably priced defenders and budget midfield options. While I understand this logic, I would not be so fast to dismiss the midfield elite with Sanchez and Hazard returning to their sides and the likes of Eriksen and Salah putting in quality performances every week. The wisdom of this argument will likely only be settled with hindsight.

What we can review is which of the elite forwards should be targeted. While Morata stole the headlines, it was actually Aguero (and to an extent Lacazette who benefited from a penalty) who led the week in xP. This was perhaps to be expected given Aguero's opponent but it served as a welcome reminder that all else being equal, Aguero still likely has the potential for the most explosive points totals given the heights this City team have shown they can hit. However, the Argentine is also the most likely player in this elite group to be rotated and of course costs over a million more than Morata, Jesus and Lacazette.

Through the next 12 gameweeks the model still has Kane as a clear leader followed by Lukaku and Aguero in a near tie. Jesus and Morata are then closer behind with Lacazette trailing by some distance. There's talent there for sure but given the Arsenal man's price tag, it's almost impossible to justify taking that flyer right now. One element that intrigues me about Morata is the share of Chelsea's shots inside the box he's accounted for when on the pitch (30%). No one else in the Chelsea team is over 16% which makes you feel very confident that if Chelsea have a weak opponent and the Spaniard plays, fantasy points are likely to come your way. The same cannot always be said for someone like Aguero who not only faces increased rotation risk but also has to share the spoils with more players when he is on the field (22% of SiB). Of course, if City keep scoring 5 and 6 goals a week there will be plenty of goals for everyone but when the scoring machine slows a little, one could argue that Kane (41% SiB), Morata and Lukaku (31% SiB) offer great certainty of success. In short, I believe Kane is close to a must own but could make an argument for any of the other group and wouldn't be scrambling and spending 4 point hits to flip between them regularly.

Mid-level forwards
For those not yet convinced by the three-elite forward option, a few players this week highlighted their own potential to round out your front line. Vardy and Hernandez have both been steady performers this season and while they certainly aren't unknowns (12% and 20% ownership respectively), they are sometimes forgotten men when compared to the elite group.

I think it's too early to make a call on Bony yet, but there is a lot to like with Vardy and Hernandez. The problem is not so much these players, it's who they would be paired with. Presumably the rationale for downgrading from, say, Kane to Vardy would be to free up funds to use in midfield but of the top ten most expensive midfielders I would suggest that only Salah and Eriksen have been definite successes to date. If Hazard and Sanchez can return to form then they could offer just as much value as the elite forwards and thus a cheaper forward would be a useful, possibly essential, tool to give you access to them but until that happens it is indeed looking like the best bet might be to roll with three elite options.

An alternative idea is to go with just two truly elite options and then stack your team with a host of second tier priced players such as Silva, Mkhitaryan, Pogba, Vardy and even the likes of Sterling and Sane (see below). This protects you somewhat from rotation and makes it easy to change direction during the season, though the captains armband becomes tougher to award and if you structure your team without someone like Kane, it can take two or even three transfers to free up the funds to get him back, so you better be sure you're happy with the direction (or have a wildcard to spare).

Man City midfielders
Generally a prerequisite for fantasy consideration is being all but locked into a team's first team plans. Of course we know that the likes of Kane will still be dropped every now and then but we don't tend to tolerate fringe players who might only get 20-25 starts. Enter Sterling and Sane. The City pair rank 6th and 8th in points among midfielders and generally have the underlying stats to support their impressive hauls.

At just 7.8m and 8.3m they are competing with mid-level options like Antonio, Sigurdsson, Pogba, Rooney, Benteke or Defoe and when playing, their advanced positions in such a dynamic team will surely help them eclipse this group. Though perhaps slightly more impressive when playing, Sane's lack of Premier League experience and numerous sub-appearances still make me nervous but I am convinced that the criminally underrated Sterling will get enough time to make him valuable. You will need to secure strong bench options though - which might therefore preclude you owning three elite forwards - but I definitely think there's a way to fit him into your side and offer a very reasonably priced way to get access to this talented City side.

After this week's trip to Chelsea, City's fixtures are extremely promising and I would definitely consider having Sterling for 9/12 of them rather than many of the above group for 11/12 of their games.

Player share of key stats, by team

2017-09-25T21:08:00.000-04:00

The below visualization shows the share of their team's shots inside the box (SiB) and created chances (CC) each player have accounted for this season. The share represents only the games when the player was on the field so as to not penalise them for missing games. This also therefore means that the total team percentage will not add up to 100%.

While shots inside the box are generally more valuable than those from outside, this data does not control for quality beyond that, so an overly trigger happy player like Andy Carroll might appear more valuable than he is, while a clinical finisher like Aguero might be underrated. Still, the idea here is provide a quick sense check as to where players rank within their respective teams.

We often see people cite team A's superior fixtures to team B as the key reason to select player A over player B, but this misses the impact of the likelihood of these players benefiting from their team's favourable fixtures, which I hope this player share data can help with a bit.

Elite forwards: a response to City's past week

2017-09-19T12:22:00.000-04:00

Over an eight day period last week, Man City thumped their three opponents by a combined score of 15-0, with Liverpool, Feyenoord and Watford unable to contend with Guardiola's men. It goes without saying that City were extremely impressive in these games and fantasy football managers are obviously taking note with Aguero and Jesus shooting to the top of many managers' transfer target lists (at the time of writing some 440,000 managers had already brought in Aguero and another 90,000 have targeted Jesus). The point of this post is not to suggest that these transfers are incorrect - indeed I might follow suit myself - but I did want to run over a few facts to maybe turn the temperature down on the need to make these moves right now.

The chart below shows the expected points each of the listed elite forwards have registered through the first 5 gameweeks. You can see Aguero's terrific GW5 effort eclipsing his rivals this past week but you will also note that Kane has three gameweeks with an expected points total close or above Aguero's game against Watford. Now, it should be noted here that the expected points number I am using is not as complex as some models, and indeed is a simplified version of my own, but it does a good enough job highlighting that Kane and Lukaku have been wracking up very solid shot and created chance numbers on week-on-week and so one very good game from Aguero, and to a lesser extent Jesus, does not need to completely change your transfer plans.

Note: Firmino's sky high xP in GW1 is due to his penalty which is scored in the model as essentially 4 guaranteed points on top of his other goal and assist potential.

The model forecast still likes Kane quite a bit more than any other forward using the blended or prior year season conversion rates, which ranks Lukaku just ahead of Jesus and Aguero in terms of projected goals. Aguero tops all his rivals when it comes to assist threat which is a useful tool to have and would push him sufficiently far ahead of Jesus as to justify the extra million or so pounds.

To me, there remains a relatively clear hierarchy of Kane at the top, Lukaku and Aguero in a near tie for second and then Jesus, Morata and to an extent Firmino following in the lower tier. Therefore the switch from Lukaku to Aguero makes good sense but is not suddenly a "must do" transaction if there are other areas of the team you need to address.