Premier League Fantasy Football Blog

Gameweek 38 Preview

2013-05-18T01:49:00.001+01:00

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Gameweek 36 Preview

2013-04-30T21:41:00.000+01:00

We've already talked in some detail about specfic players to target this week, with the below data supplementing that analysis:

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Gameweek 35 Projections

2013-04-25T19:51:00.000+01:00

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Gameweek 36 double gameweek advanced preview

2013-04-25T04:11:00.000+01:00

It's been increasingly hard to differentiate our teams of late, and those who tried to do just that without van Persie these past couple of weeks were burned with a couple of 16+ point performances. All is not lost though, and the fixture Gods have dished out one last chance to gain some ground on your opponents, or, one last offensive to repel, depending on your position within your respective mini-leagues.

That position is going to dictate your strategy and so we need to dig a bit deeper than simply trying to maximize the points in the '36' column on the forecast charts (if indeed you believe any of the forecast on this lowly blog). First then, let's look at the main options, their forecast points and ownership numbers:

The first obvious point is that not all double gameweeks are created equal and some caution should be exercised about piling on players from Chelsea, and to an extent Swansea, given the relative strength of their opponents in gameweek 36. Mata and Hazard owners will obviously be pleased with the extra fixture and thus you would certainly lean towards keeping that pair over someone like Cazorla or Gerrard, but with one fixture coming at Old Trafford and the other seeing Tottenham come to Stamford Bridge, the ceiling (if not the floor) of the Chelsea players is somewhat limited.

The second general point to note is that a large number of the best options for the double gameweek are already owned by 15%+ managers. Again then, choosing your options is going to depend on whether you need to gain/defend ground, so for each team we're going to highlight picks for each instance.

Finally, I am putting defensive options to one side here, as the strategy there is much simpler (chase the lower expected goals conceded numbers and do with the cheapest defensive option available in each respective team).

The Elite
Chelsea - @MUN, TOT
With three genuinely elite and widely held options in Ba, Mata and Hazard, Chelsea will play a big role in GW36's double gameweeks, though the strength of those fixtures really leads me to push them down the list of desired targets. If you already own them, it's almost certainly worth holding on, but otherwise it looks like a move which carries a higher floor than normal, but a ceiling which doesn't particularly inspire.

If you're leading your league: If your key opponent holds one or more of this trio you might want to consider bringing them in, just to hedge against the possibility that both these fixtures turn into high scoring affairs (that could certainly happen at Old Trafford if United decide to play a very expansive game now the title is wrapped up). If that's the case, I would target Mata if you just want Chelsea cover, or whichever player your opponent holds if you're really trying to just hold on.

If you're chasing the pack: It's likely that your opponents own at least one of these players and this isn't where I would be targeting my transfers. Of course, if your opponents are stocked with City and Spurs players with no Chelsea coverage then the likes of Mata or Hazard make sense, but all else being equal I'd look to players with more upside than this group

Man City - @SWA, WBA
We have five potentially viable options here who are held by 5% of less of all managers, yet with City's form and Mancini's penchant for wholesale changes, I'm not sure I even feel confident picking who might play 120+ minutes, never mind who will enjoy predictable success.

If you're leading your league: There is less incentive to push the issue here so while you'll definitely want to look at Tevez - who probably grades out as the best safety/upside forward for the remainder of the season - there's probably little reason to get involved with the Aguero/Dzeko/Silva group, who all have the potential to succeed but are far from guaranteed playing time (in Silva's case more related to injury than rotation).

If you're chasing the pack: If you need to gain ground then one can make a pretty strong argument that you need to heavily invest in this City team. Unless your opponent is asleep at the wheel, they'll almost certainly have a couple of players from the Mata/Hazard/Bale/Tevez/Michu group so if you want to gain serious ground you'll need to either hit the jackpot with non-double gameweek picks, or roll the dice with a couple of the riskier double gameweekers. Tevez is the obvious pick, though too comes with significant ownership numbers, so that really just leaves Aguero and Silva (if you're going to take a flyer on City players, looking at mid level options like Milner or Yaya doesn't seem like the best way to use your transfers). There hasn't been much indication to date that they'll be ready for the West Ham game, so despite that appetizing fixture, you might be best served holding off this week then bringing that pair in for one last roll of the dice if they're cleared to play in GW36.

Tottenham - SOU, @CHE
Given the strength of that second fixture, I wouldn't try and press the issue here and would offer the same advice for everyone, whether leading or chasing the pack: buy Bale. He was a good buy option this week despite the slight injury risk, but having come through the City game unscathed, he now reclaims his spot as the best projected midfield option for the remainder of the year, and arguably the best combo of floor/ceiling among all players. Such is the strength of his forecast points, he looks like a good option to take a four point hit four, other than for Mata and Hazard whose own double gameweeks should keep things close.

With the uncertainty of everyone else's playing time, I believe there are better ways to use your remaining transfers than to chase anyone else from this team.

The Others
Swansea - MCI, @WIG
If Tottenham's team can be boiled down to one player than I don't know to communicate the gulf in class between Michu and the next player in this Swansea side. They could end the season with five midfielders with over 100 points, yet none of them outside Michu have really offered anything approaching consistent returns despite flashing promise at various times this year.

If you're leading your league:Bringing in Michu is probably a good defensive move given his huge ownership numbers, though I suspect that a portion of those owners will be teams who aren't currently active, as many of the 'busier' managers have moved the Spaniard on after a much quieter second half at the Liberty Stadium. While many are down on City, their defense is still pretty useful and they've only conceded more than once just eight times this year, with two of those coming back in August. The Wigan fixture looks more promising but then Swansea have been fairly miserable away from home of late and thus I wouldn't be expecting fireworks there either.

If you're chasing the pack: There's a chance that your opponents won't hold Michu of course, but it's likely that at least some of them do and that makes him a lot less attractive if you need to make a move. All things considered, you would obviously pick him over most (or all) players without a double gameweek, but I'd suggest the data shows he is one player you don't need to target and thus your precious transfers might be better used elsewhere if looking to differentiate.

As a defensive blocking option Michu makes a lot of sense, but be sure to understand the kind of (limited) ceiling you're buying into before paying a premium.

West Brom - WIG, @MCI
Along with Silva (if fit), Lukaku offers the best combination of points upside, job security and low ownership percentage, and thus should certainly be considered as a transfer target for GW36. For those needing replacements for Suarez or Giroud, or looking for greater upside than the likes of Benteke or Berbatov, you could do a lot worse than targeting Lukaku, starting this week with his trip to Southampton.

If you're leading your league: Lukaku does carry some risk as he does occasionally start on the bench, and with West Brom safe, there is at least some incentive to play Long as Lukaku looks set to return to Chelsea in the summer. With the low ownership numbers seen across this team, this might be one side to ignore if the onus is on your opponent to make ground on you.

If you're chasing the pack: Lukaku looks like a good player to back to differentiate your team, even if we're not crazy about the underlying data observed in his dashboard. It's a bit disconcerting that he hasn't yet netted against of the league's best teams so that trip to City starts to look like a two-pointer but you'd really fancy him at home to Wigan and the potential penalty duties do give him the chance to contribute against anyone. Despite that home game with Wigan, there really isn't too much to get excited about elsewhere in this team, so while you'd obviously play Morrison if you own him, I wouldn't be rushing out to bring him in given the other available options.

Wigan - @WBA, SWA
Wigan are possibly the hardest team to deal with for the double gameweek as they get some fairly favourable fixtures and have players able to take advantage, yet haven't really been able to play with any consistency so far this year. One plus is that the fixtures surrounding the double are also fairly useful with two home games (TOT and AVL) and then a tough trip to Arsenal.

If you're leading your league: As with the other non-elite teams, it's likely that the best pure-points-maximization strategies lie away from Wigan and you're almost certainly better served simply plugging Tevez in for Suarez or Bale for Cazorla, or whichever transfer blocks your opponents teams the best. While I'm a big fan of Maloney and Kone, there's a reason they're are owned by 5% or less managers and that lack of consistency makes them a risk you don't need to take if you're in a position of power.

If you're chasing the pack:If you need to take a risk then Kone, and to a lesser extent Maloney look like great options to try. Kone grades out slightly below Lukaku in terms of the model, but if you were going to give a range of outcomes, the mode might be higher for the Wigan man given the easier fixtures and the higher chance that Lukaku is benched or simply shut out against City. As for Maloney, he is sensational value at 5.1m, but the sticking point is that transfers are limited and his lower ceiling makes it harder to justify using a four-pointer on. If however things are desperate and you absolutely need to roll the dice, he looks like by far the best budget midfield play for the doubles.

Gameweek 34 Projections

2013-04-18T16:40:00.003+01:00

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Gameweek 33 Preview

2013-04-11T20:52:00.000+01:00

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Gameweek 32 Preview

2013-04-05T15:56:00.000+01:00

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Note: Individual rankings are based on an historical average data model only and no account is taken of expected playing time or rotation risk. Where a players is confirmed as injured or suspended I endeavor to remove them for the below listings but assumptions regarding rotation are not otherwise included in the below analysis.

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Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 31

2013-04-03T05:53:00.000+01:00

Arsenal
Fabianski, Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Arteta, Rosicky, Ramsey, Gervinho, Cazorla, Giroud
Subs: Szczesny, Vermaelen, Podolski, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Coquelin, Jenkinson, Gibbs

Fabianski got the start between the sticks and despite conceding in what looked like a very promising defensive fixture, he'll represent tremendous value at the GK position if he can keep that job. I wouldn't bet on that for the long term but if your holding someone who looks playable in virtually every game remaining (like Begovic, for example) I'd be okay taking that risk as, if nothing else, it'll free some cash up rather than holding two 5.0m options, one of whom will possibly never play. I'm amazed how Podolski has been marginalised in the second half of the season but needless to say he, along with the other midfield/forward hybrid options don't look very ownable right now. Cazorla was a great play this week due to the fixture but I wouldn't get too carried away with his success as the underlying stats are still only so-so and he doesn't carry the kind of upside you get with Bale or possibly Mata. That said, the fixtures continue to look promising and in Walcott's absence he's the safest way to tap into this Arsenal side.

Aston Villa
Guzan, Lowton, Vlaar, Baker, Bennett, Sylla, Westwood, Bannan, Weimann, Benteke, Agbonlahor
Subs: Given, El Ahmadi, N'Zogbia, Delph, Bowery, Dawkins, Lichaj

Not too much excitement here and N'Zogbia's place on the bench confirms his brief flash of fantasy relevance was merely a mirage. Somehow Benetke continues to put up excellent stats in this side and remains very ownable despite his lack of surrounding talent (though to be fair Weimann and Agbonlahor are a decent duo).

Chelsea
Cech, Azpilicueta, Ivanovic, Terry, Bertrand, Mikel, Lampard, Moses, Oscar, Marin, Torres
Subs: Turnbull, Cole, Luiz, Ramires, Hazard, Benayoun, Ba

Benitez was up to his old tricks, rotating Hazard, Mata, Ba and Cole with one eye on the upcoming FA Cup fixture and his team was duly punished by a Southampton side who are continuing to impress after a shaky run of form threatened to drag them into the relegation fight. Given the fact they won the game, the future headaches are likely to continue (especially as they are also still in Europe), starting with the loss of their double gameweek in GW33. This may however provide an opportunity to mix and match assets to take advantage of more doubles, so long as sufficient planning is undertaken. They do play in Europe this week but the game is at Stamford Bridge, and after this week's loss at Southampton, one would imagine the majority of the fantasy stars will be restored this week. Despite his couple of goals of late, the uncertainty surrounding Ba's playing time prevents me from throwing him into that category I'm afraid.

Everton
Howard, Jagielka, Heitinga, Distin, Baines, Coleman, Gibson, Osman, Mirallas, Jelavic, Anichebe
Subs: Mucha, Oviedo, Naismith, Hitzlsperger, Barkley, Stones, Duffy

Without seeing the game it's hard to tell from average position charts, but I believe Everton spent at least part of this game with a back three, which fits their personnel quite nicely, allowing Heitinga and Distin to play, while avoiding the awkward shoe-horning of someone into that right back spot who doesn't really fit. The key for fantasy purposes would be Baines' potentially advanced role, though the data from this one game doesn't suggest a radical change. Everton's fixtures make me really question whether this move would be enough to compensate for a presumed reduction in defensive point potential.

Fulham
Schwarzer, Riether, Senderos, Hangeland, Riise, Duff, Karagounis, Sidwell, Dejagah, Ruiz, Berbatov
Subs: Etheridge, Frimpong, Richardson, Hughes, Rodallega, Frei, Emanuelson

Nothing really to note here with little interest in this team other than the usual suspects in defense and Dimitar continuing to Dimitar. Be careful with those fixtures though before penciling the Bulgarian in for the remainder of the year.

Liverpool
Reina, Johnson, Agger, Carragher, Jose Enrique, Lucas, Gerrard, Henderson, Coutinho, Downing, Suarez
Subs: Jones, Sturridge, Coates, Suso, Sterling, Shelvey, Skrtel

Sturridge starting on the bench was a real blow as he was forecast for a big game by the model but one certainly wouldn't expect that to be a trend and the former Chelsea man looks set to be a good play again this week. With other double gameweek options developing, it's possible that Sturridge is the better Liverpool front man to keep here, freeing up the Suarez-level money to use on the van Persie's of the world when playing twice in a week. Not too much else to note in this side, and while I've been impressed with Coutinho's on the field work, his underlying stats are underwhelming thus he remains a very speculative 7.0m flyer rather than a logical investment of mid level cash.

Man City
Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Nasri, Barry, Yaya Toure, Silva, Dzeko, Tevez
Subs: Pantilimon, Kolarov, K Toure, Milner, Sinclair, Garcia, Aguero

I've long given up speculating on this lineup and the thought of Aguero finishing the season with less playing time than Andreas Weimann and Jamie Mackie is enough to bring one to tears, but alas, Mancini has shown distain for winning games all year so let's move on. The team fared just fine without the Argentinian this week and have created a decent haul of chances of late, suggesting there's hope that some value can be squeezed from this team for the remainder of the season. You wouldn't want to invest this week of course with a trip to Old Trafford on deck but after that they face a fairly favourable schedule and if the team suggests they're ready to show their true talent they could represent some useful high end differentiation, particularly in Silva and Aguero (if he's played).

Man Utd
De Gea, Rafael, Smalling, Vidic, Buttner, Valencia, Anderson, Carrick, Young, Kagawa, Rooney
Subs: Lindegaard, Evra, Evans, Nani, Cleverley, Powell, Welbeck

Widespread changes here, as expected, with the Chelsea game just two days later, so we shouldn't read much into any of these decisions. With United no longer competing on any other fronts, we will hopefully see the starters returned to the first team for the remainder of the year, though the fact that the title is also virtually over does increase the risk of players being given the odd game off to give youngsters their games or give players with single digit appearances enough games to earn a winners medal. The loss to Chelsea also guaranteed the double gameweeks for GW33, and the likes of van Persie will become hot topics in the next week or so.

Newcastle
Elliot, Simpson, Yanga-M'Biwa, S Taylor, Anita, Cabaye, Sissoko, Gutierrez, Obertan, Gouffran, Cisse
Subs: Harper, Perch, Good, Gosling, Birigimana, Marveaux, Campbell

At this point in the year, we would normally be concerned that a team like Newcastle might take their proverbial foot off the pedal with nothing left to play for, but after some poor results and form, they find themselves in a position where they're not technically safe from relegation. For fantasy purposes that is arguably a good thing as it ensures the team will continue to play hard, though that still doesn't answer the question of who one would want to target here. The starting lineup is pretty settled other than Obertan and Marveaux but finding value is still somewhat tricky.

Norwich
Camp, Martin, Turner, Bassong, Garrido, Howson, Johnson, Snodgrass, E Bennett, Hoolahan, Kamara
Subs: Steer, Whittaker, Holt, Fox, Becchio, Tierney, Tettey

We're seeing rotation up front between Holt, Kamara and Becchio, though with three starts in a row and some solid underlying stats, I would probably lean towards Kamara if pressed. Given his price (5.0m) and the arguable position that van Persie is a must own player for United' double, it's possible that he might have a place in our thoughts given a lack of too many other 5.0m options, especially given the home fixtures against Swansea and Reading in the next three weeks. The rest of this side is fairly predictable, though unfortunately so are the mediocre returns.

QPR
Julio Cesar, Bosingwa, Samba, Hill, Traore, Townsend, Mbia, Jenas, Taarabt, Zamora, Remy
Subs: Green, Park, Mackie, Granero, Onuoha, Ben Haim, Hoilett

Can we stop talking about this team yet? In reality their season is over, though Remy at least gives us fantasy fans something to talk about. 11 SiB in the last five games is a decent haul and offers promise for the final weeks of the season, starting this week with a home game against Wigan. If you're sat on a ~7.0m player and could use the extra million to significantly improve elsewhere I'd be interested in Remy, but considering the weakness of his team, I'd be hesitant to put too much faith in him continuing to score goals at his current rate.

Reading
Taylor, Kelly, Pearce, Mariappa, Shorey, Leigertwood, Karacan, Guthrie, McAnuff, Robson-Kanu, Pogrebnyak
Subs: McCarthy, Gunter, Le Fondre, Hunt, McCleary, Morrison, Akpan

Remy stops us ignoring QPR altogether, while Reading's version of that player can't get in the first team. Bad news for them but good news for me as I don't need to waste any more precious kilobytes talking about this awful side.

Southampton
Boruc, Clyne, Yoshida, Hooiveld, Shaw, Schneiderlin, Cork, S Davis, Puncheon, Lambert, Rodriguez
Subs: K Davis, Fonte, Ramirez, Fox, Forren, Ward-Prowse, Do Prado

Clyne and Puncheon appear to have been reinstated after brief absences and can probably both be owned again with confidence (though you'd be wanting to rely on them as good bench options rather than true every starters). Rodriguez has been putting up some very useful numbers of late and will be touched on in this week's fanning the flames while the rest of the team remains largely unchanged.

Stoke
Begovic, Cameron, Shawcross, Huth, Wilson, Shotton, Whelan, Nzonzi, Walters, Crouch, Jerome
Subs: Sorensen, Jones, Owen, Adam, Whitehead, Kightly, Wilkinson

Wilson is possibly the best value defender in the game right now and his 1% ownership really just speaks to managers not reviewing all their options at the end of a long season. The 1.9m saving from Shawcross or 1.6m from Huth should be no brainers for the numerous managers who hold that useful pair. Not much to interest us on the attacking side of the pitch though, though at the least the main options are fairly entrenched in Pulis' weekly lineup.

Sunderland
Mignolet, Bardsley, O'Shea, Bramble, Rose, N'Diaye, Gardner, Johnson, McClean, Sessegnon, Graham
Subs: Westwood, Kilgallon, Larsson, Colback, Mangane, Wickham, Mandron

With a new manager coming in it's tough to make any assumptions about long term playing time, but looking at the bench suggests that there aren't a great deal of options for Di Canio to opt for.

Swansea
Vorm, Tiendalli, Chico, Williams, Davies, Britton, de Guzman, Routledge, Dyer, Hernandez, Michu
Subs: Tremmel, Bartley, Monk, Ki, Lamah, Moore, Shechter

Nothing happening here and despite the double in GW36, the upcoming fixtures for Swansea paired with a lack of need to win games makes me nervous about grabbing anyone from this side.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Dawson, Vertonghen, Naughton, Parker, Dembele, Bale, Sigurdsson, Lennon, Adebayor
Subs: Archer, Assou-Ekotto, Caulker, Livermore, Holtby, Huddlestone, Defoe

We'll keep an eye on that Assou Ekotto situation but I would expect him to be restored this week and wouldn't suggest Naughton will be a long term option. Regardless, Dawson is the pick here given his combination of security and price tag. The front options all look pretty safe in this side though with Defoe lurking it's always tough to categorically state that Sigurdsson or even Adebayor won't be rotated every now and then. The other wordly Bale however looks undroppable and the bye in GW33 may warrant suffering through given his form and the promising remaining fixtures after the off week.

West Ham
Jaaskelainen, Reid, O'Brien, Collins, Demel, Nolan, Jarvis, Diame, O'Neil, Carroll, Vaz Te
Subs: Henderson, McCartney, Tomkins, Collison, Taylor, C Cole, Chamakh

No lineup notes here, though we do need to talk about Carroll in more depth, who has put up some very solid numbers since returning from injury six weeks ago. He'll miss this week's trip to Anfield due to the terms of his loan deal but might represent a sneaky option (though still overpriced) for the final stages of the season.

West Brom
Foster, Olsson, Ridgewell, McAuley, Jones, Yacob, Brunt, Dorrans, Mulumbu, Long, Lukaku
Subs: Myhill, Popov, Tamas, Thomas, Rosenberg, Odemwingie, Fortune

No real issues here either and it's good to once again see Long and Lukaku deployed together. With little left to play for there is a twinge of doubt in my mind that Clarke may start leaning towards playing Long over Lukaku given the fact that the Chelsea man will not be returning next season, but for now that point seems moot.

Wigan
Robles, Scharner, Alcaraz, Figueroa, Boyce, McCarthy, Gomez, Beausejour, Maloney, McManaman, Kone
Subs: Al Habsi, Caldwell, Di Santo, Henriquez, McArthur, Espinoza, Stam

I am personally amazed that Robles is holding off Al Habsi in goal, as I consider the latter to be one the better 'keepers in the league. Robles' 4.0m price tag makes him viable as a rotation/bench option, though I'd have serious concerns about assuming that number one shirt is his to keep. Though we are seeing some decent reliability in this lineup, it's still hard to see value outside of the much fancied pair of Kone and Maloney.

Gameweek 31 Preview

2013-03-28T21:25:00.002Z

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Note: Individual rankings are based on an historical average data model only and no account is taken of expected playing time or rotation risk. Where a players is confirmed as injured or suspended I endeavor to remove them for the below listings but assumptions regarding rotation are not included in the below analysis.

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Player share of SiB

2013-03-22T01:45:00.001Z

The new Tableau just launched and they've added treemaps, a form a visualisation I've been meaning to add to the site for some time. Now that Tableau carry this format, my existing data is already ready to go, so below is the first of likely many treemaps, here showing players' share of shots inside the box, split between games at home and away. Player share is given on a percentage basis based on the minutes they have played so you don't need to adjust for playing time. However, standard caveats on small samples should be noted, hence I've excluded all players with less than 900 total minutes played:

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Late season form for mid table teams

2013-03-17T03:55:00.000Z

You don't hear it so much these days - or at least I don't, having left the world of 24/7 Sky Sports News to one in which my weekly football dose is received in 90 minute spells with little or no nonsense chat - but anytime a mid table team would lose towards the end of the season, we always heard that they had one eye on their upcoming holiday and had mentally checked out by late March. If this is indeed the case then the fantasy impact would be huge as (a) we would obviously wish to avoid such players and (b) playing someone like Swansea would suddenly become a potentially easier fixture than facing a team battling to stay in the league.

The below assessment is very simplistic and should not be taken as an attempt to definitively answer this question. It's merely a first attempt to shed a little bit of light on this topic and see if there's something here to investigate. The analysis contains a number of limitations, not limited to:

I have not adjusted for strength of schedule, so while I'm comparing a team's form through 30 weeks versus the final eight weeks, if teams happen to play the best eight teams in the league to end of the season and lose most of them, the analysis would flag this as an exception where as in reality such results were pretty much expected.
I have not factored in anything surrounding managerial changes or player transfers so if you believe that January signing or interim manager turned a team around, this wouldn't necessarily be explained below.
I have not gone into why teams are winning or losing, only the end results. As we know, results can be misleading when judging how well a team is playing, and mere randomness would account for some fluctuation in points, even a team continued to generate and concede the exact same number of chances every week.

With those caveats in mind, let's take a look at the data. We have plotted the points per game of teams through the first 30 weeks of the season (PPG30) against their points per game through the final eight games (PPG8). I like this cutoff point as (a) it's the stage of the season we're at now and (b) by the 30 game mark you have a nice group of teams who are very likely safe but have little chance of making a run at a European spot (this year this is probably everyone between West Brom and Norwich). Our simple hypothesis would be that if a team averaged 1.8 PPG through the first 30 games, they should continue to do so through the final eight weeks (again, ignoring quality of opponent for a minute). What we would deem an interesting result is whether certain teams (say, those in the top six) continue to perform a ready rate, while others (say, those in mid table security) see a noticeable decline in results. For this reason, we have colour coded the chart to highlight each team's position at the 30 game mark (simply split between, top six (T6), mid table (mid) and the bottom six (B6):

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The only obvious conclusion from the above chart is admittedly that nothing is obvious, but if you bear with me for a second, there are a couple of points to note:

We've seen some pretty incredible changes in fortunes for teams at almost every position with teams like 06-07 Man United going from a 2.5 PPG average to 1.75 over the final 8 games, while 06-07 West Ham and 11-12 Wigan went from a 0.8 PPG average to finishing with championship form (2.25).
While we have seen differences every season, there is clearly a strong trend here (r-squared = 0.88) so our starting point for teams should still be that we expect business as usual, rather than working on the assumption that the QPR and Readings of the world are all set for late season surges.

Let's pull some of the key trends from the data to see if anything else jumps out:

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On the face of it, the above data is quite promising with regards to identifying a genuine trend of late season declines/surges. We see more decline among top six teams and more improvement among the bottom six teams, though this is to be expected as those teams have further to fall/rise and - at least at the very top - we will have some seasons where the best teams are resting players once the league is effectively over if they are involved in other competitions. The key though are those middle teams, who have shown a much higher propensity for declining (47/80) rather than improving (33/80), which seems to fit with the popular narrative.

Less exciting is the above chart which shows that the majority of mid table teams (66%) improving or declining by just 0.5 GPG either way, though again, this was always likely given that they have less scope to rise or fall. The fact that we have three teams who declined by a full point per game all within the mid table category, is however a plus.

So, it looks like we have something here, namely that mid table teams do appear more likely to decline than improve, presumably with the teams at the bottom of the league vulturing their points more often that not. Let's dig a bit deeper though and see how they improve/decline in terms of goals scored/conceded.

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There are a few questions coming out of this data which might be worth looking at in a future post, but for now let's stick with those mid table teams. We can see that they lost ground both in terms of goals scored and goals conceded, though the decline on the defensive side was more pronounced with the average decline being close to half a goal per game conceded. This again fits with expectations as it's easier to stay focused on the attacking side of the pitch, while mundane marking from corners or tracking a midfield run might seem less important when the end result isn't overly important.

So what does this all mean? Well, that's hard to say on such a high level but I think there's enough here to at least give us pause for thought before buying someone from the Swanseas and Fulhams of the world (particularly on the defensive side of the pitch). Saying that though, it should be noted that even given the above, teams in the bottom six still conceded, on average, 0.2 GPG more than the mid table teams over the end of season run in, so replacing those mid table defenders will be tricky. Considering that the offensive declines have been lower across the board, it might be advisable to try and put less emphasis on defense, trying to grab a couple of premium players to start every week then spot starting one of the cheaper options where you can. History would suggest that a four, or even a five, man defense would be inadvisable during the late stages of the season.

Gameweek 30 Preview Data

2013-03-15T13:51:00.002Z

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Dousing the fire, fanning the flames: Gameweek 29

2013-03-14T02:41:00.001Z

A slight change of pace with this week's fanning the flames piece due to a couple of observations over the last few weeks and months. First, I felt that old graphic didn't really show enough information that might lead us to fan said flame (or, more likely douse those hyped up fires). Second, looking at the data on a single week basis was always going to lead to a large number of 'variances' due to the ridiculously small samples involved. I've therefore currently included three gameweeks of data, but have built the model to allow for anywhere between one and five to be included so this may again be tweaked in the future. Finally, this is a piece which should probably run every two or three weeks to avoid too much repetition, so this new format lends itself more to that time frame.

First then, let's look at the new graphic and a couple of lines to illuminate the way the data is intended to be read:

The G, xG, A, xA, P and xP simply set out the expected goals, assists and points for the selected player over the defined period (in this case three weeks). The only point to note is that the expected values are based on the actual shot totals accrued, rather than the model which uses historic averages. The key reason for differences therefore will be players converting chances at a higher than expected rate, a telltale sign that we way wish to temper our excitement after a big game or two.

The charts are split into two categories: trends and full season data. The former show the players' performance over the last x weeks (again, this time we're using three) and the latter shows the conversion rates for the full season. The key point here of course is to illustrate unusually high conversion rates to suggest that a player's uptick in "form" may be unsustainable or that it is a genuine product of taking more quality shots etc.

SiB% Percentage of a player's shots taken inside the box
SoT% Percentage of a player's shots that hit the target (a rate that limited research suggests is a sustainable skills rather than goals per SoT which appears to be heavily luck driven)
CC% Percentage of player's created chances converted into assists

Without further delay then, on with the analysis:

Gabriel Agbonlahor
It's not that Agbonlahor is totally without appeal, it's just that for 0.3m you can upgrade to the legitimately excellent Benteke, who is still held by an inexplicably low 11% of managers. As we can see from his data here, his 'success' has been more attributable to higher conversion rates, with his goal coming on just two SoT, which then of course earned him a dubious three bonus points which are still massively correlated to goals.
Status: Sell

Gareth Bale
I try not to dwell on the elite players in these pieces as you all know that Bale is one of, if not the best midfielder in the league right now, but just to emphasise that point: a quick scroll through each of the highlighted players will show that only three players boasted an xP of 10 or more, with Bale topping them all with a stunning 16. This score was supported by 20 (twenty!) shots and 12 created chances, so while it's inevitable that he can't quite continue at this rate for the rest of the season, there is more than enough here to justify any price rises or the large ownership numbers. The only knock on Bale is the lack of double gameweeks on his horizon, which puts him at a slight disadvantage to some of his premium peers.
Status: Buy

Dimitar Berbatov
Berbatov appears to have lost some of his luster of late, seeing him lose 170k followers over the past few weeks. That will likely change after back-to-back scoring games and there's enough evidence in the data to suggest his success may be sustainable. You don't love this week's trip to White Hart Lane but otherwise Fulham enjoy a decent run for the remainder of the year and Berbatov is well placed to take advantage of those fixtures. There's some concern about the rate at which he's hit the target of late, but the Bulgarian continues to take quality shots and is helped out by his penalty duties to supplement his points haul. He isn't as flashy as the likes of Benteke or Lukaku (who admittedly, I hype all the time) but his ownership numbers are now considerably below that pair (along with other mid level favourites like Lambert, Fletcher and Sturridge) and thus he deserves some attention.
Status: Buy

Yohan Cabaye
I love Cabaye and given my complaints in the past about a lack of central midfielders in the league who can genuinely dominate a game for 90 minutes, I'm delighted to see him emerge as a force at Newcastle. The shot totals are great too but that SiB% is worrying and needless to say he won't continue to hit the target at a 50% clip is he continues to shoot from long distance (even if he can shoot with the accuracy shown this week with his delightful free kick). His goalscoring threat is, of course, supplemented by a very good assist potential, though for one reason or another his teammates haven't helped him to date in that department (one assist from 36 created chances). The upcoming trip to Wigan is harder than it sounds and given the follow up date with Man City at the Etihad, there's strong reason to hold off here for a couple of weeks. After that though Cabaye is an interesting pickup at 6.6m if you aren't convinced by Sissoko's prospects in this side.
Status: Consider investment after GW31.

Santi Cazorla
Cazorla is another once-loved option who lost 150k owners in a matter of weeks before bouncing back with a couple of good performances in GW26-27. The data above (only based on two games given Arsenal's off week in GW29) shows nothing out of the ordinary other than a slightly higher tendency to take shots inside the box (and of course of a note of caution that his two goals came against a weak Villa side). Arsenal's next four gameweeks are pretty sensational on paper, and even extended to the end of the year look pretty solid, meaning that the likes of Cazorla could easily be slotted into your lineup and relied upon from here on if you so desire.
Status: Buy in a vacuum, though he's still behind Bale in the model

Papiss Cisse
I was set to write that Newcastle have really turned a corner of late, adding 12 goals over their last 6 games, but a closer look at the data makes me a touch nervous. Over that period that have created, on average, 25% less SiB than other teams did against those same opponents, with the only positive being the +47% performance against Chelsea (without that game they average -39%). There have been plenty of long range efforts, but while I sung the praises of Cabaye above, I'm not willing to heavily back a team who are relying on lottery-shots for success, especially when it comes to judging Cisse. The model sees Cisse as more of a Benteke/Berbatov/Fletcher type player, and I don't see anything to really justify the premium needed to upgrade to him over that trio (among others). One positive is his low ownership number, though given that required premium, I'd personally prefer to hold the more popular option this time, and try and differentiate elsewhere, where better value can be found.
Status: Sell based on that price tag

Jack Collison
It appears that Nolan, Noble and Cole are all short term absentees so the increase in playing time for Collison will likely be short lived.
Status: Sell

Stewart Downing
Downing is a potentially perfect Moneyball type player, as the very mention of his name sends scores of fans into giggling hysterics, particularly if accompanied by any kind of praise. His apparent security in this very promising Liverpool side is certainly a plus, as is the rate he's been taking close range shots (which has clearly improved of late too, whether by chance or design is less clear). The problem is still a lack of volume of efforts though, and his goal this week was obviously a touch fortunate (though in his defense, he did have to be in a good position and then finish it off). At 5.7m he's possibly a touch overpriced as he really belongs in the same group as the Puncheon/Pilkington/Maloney group, but if you have a small amount of cash lying around and are currently invested in someone whose form or playing time has suffered, I don't think it's crazy to take a look at the oft-mocked winger. The next four games look solid (though three are on the road) and a lack of double gameweek potential does hurt him over several of his peers, but his 1% ownership is a factor and anybody who gets to play with Sturridge and Suarez every week with little competition for playing time looks okay to me.
Status: Cautious buy, though I'd still say better upside can be found in his price bracket.

Marouane Fellaini
The trends for Fellaini show a fantasy player in decline, though in fairness he is coming down from a frankly insane platform where we was racking up elite SiB totals on a weekly basis for a mid level price tag. The fixtures don't look too promising for Everton, at least for the next three weeks, after which they get the double gameweek (though with half of that coming at the Emirates I wouldn't be forecasting huge totals for Fellaini and co that week either). A look at the midfield points standings shows that no one ahead of Fellaini can be had for close to his price tag, and that probably holds up for projections too, though with the tougher fixtures and his declining stats, I'd venture he's probably closer to the 6-7.0m group now than his is to the truly elite options above him.
Status: Still ownable but he shouldn't be targeted until GW33 for the double gameweek.

Junior Hoilett
Hoilett is a useful player, though as a Canadian resident I am obliged to offer a comment that he really needs to give up on his chances of playing for England and come to the great white north. Moving on from that though, Hoilett looks like a classic regression candidate, having hit the target with every one of his shots these past couple of weeks, while getting his three created chances converted into two goals. While I like Remy quite a bit, I think we can conclude that QPR aren't ready to shatter conversion records this year, so I'll pass on Hoilett until we see quite a lot more from the Canadian.
Status: Sell

Shinji Kagawa
Three shots, three on target and three goals (extremely well taken I might add). However, the fact that we only have one game of data here illustrates the chief concern here: playing time. I love the idea of Kagawa, particularly if deployed further up field, but nothing to date suggests that situation is sustainable.
Status: Sell

Arouna Kone
Kone's numbers look good and haven't really fluctuated over the past run of games so there's good reason to buy what the Ivorian has been selling of late. There's a lot to like with Wigan's fixtures, and aside from the trip to the Etihad, you probably feel good starting Kone in every game from here on in. The fact that Wigan absolutely have to try and win every game is a further bonus as the traditional late season slumps may start to kick in for some of the mid table teams (on another note, has anyone ever actually researched this? Do mid table teams tend to 'slack off' towards the end of the year or is that just a convenient narrative to explain natural slumps in form? Sounds like a project to me). Anyway, at 6.5m he's right in that group with a few of the players mentioned above (and below) and his upcoming fixtures and low ownership number may well propel him towards the top of that class.
Status: Buy

Rickie Lambert
There's really nothing to be said about Lambert that hasn't already featured in these very electronic pages. His consistency has been excellent for a mid level option, with 13 games of 5 or more points and 2 points or more every week bar one. He lacks the upside of some of the flashier picks (as evidence by just three double digit games in 29 appearances) but he makes up for it with his penalty duties which help flatten his production and allow him the potential to contribute against any team. Though the results have taken a turn for the worse, Southampton are still creating plenty of chances and scoring goals at a decent clip, and thus Lambert looks well placed to continue his useful fantasy form. The fixtures alone wouldn't necessarily turn me off, but together with his slightly higher price tag, I'd suggest that Lambert is probably towards the bottom of the best mid-level options, but he remains ownable and moving him on isn't a priority if your team is struggling.
Status: Hold

Romelu Lukaku
Another excellent mid level forward, Lukaku has been simply sensational this year and his star would be even brighter had he not been held back through a lack of playing time. For context, the list of players with a better goals per 90 minute rate than Lukaku starts and ends with Javier Hernandez (who has only played for 690 minutes). Lukaku's rate of 0.86 goals every 90 minutes tops Suarez (0.79), van Persie (0.77) and Rooney (0.66) while obliterating his mid-level peers in Sturridge (0.54), Benteke (0.50) and Lambert (0.46). Just imagine where we'd be if Steve Clark had read the Moneyball piece over at Fantasy Football Scout. As it is, this isn't a great time to invest, with a couple of tricky away trips (Stoke and West Ham) followed by Arsenal at home and then a week off. GW34-37 look great though, particularly if sweetened by a double gameweek, so though I wouldn't necessarily be looking to pull the trigger now, he's certainly someone to keep in mind.
Status: Monitor, and wait for better fixtures

Leon Osman
I like Osman quite a bit and would give him a look were Everton a team that was steam rolling opponents, as they were for a while in the early stages of the season. Now, however, while it's unfair to say they're in poor form, they are certainly more inconsistent than before and thus the fringe players like Osman can sometimes get left out in the cold for weeks on end in terms of points production. I'm still okay owning the alpha dog (Fellaini) in this team but Osman isn't cheap enough to offer value as a bit part player in an increasingly inconsistent team.
Status: Sell

Steve Pienaar
Pienaar is essentially in the same situation as Osman, though he does bring a better assist threat. Still, his price puts him in an awkward spot between those who can be relied on more readily and those who come at a substantial discount. That, plus the aforementioned struggles and upcoming fixture list make the South African a sell too.
Status: Sell

Loic Remy
I had heard about Remy before he came to the Premier League, but had never seen him play until his scoring debut against West Ham. I was impressed then and nothing has countered those initial feelings in the subsequent weeks. His SoT% over the last few games is obviously too high but his 50% rate for the year looks fine and while his G/SoT again looks unsustainable, he's clearly doing enough to offer some value at 5.9m, just be careful you're not assuming he's going to score in three of every four starts. Despite the hype around Redknapp, I would offer a word of caution that under his guidance the team is averaging 37% less SiB that opponent adjusted league average (-7% under Hughes) and this has actually declined of late with a -48% rate over the last 10 games. They may be more "committed", "gritty" or "harder to beat" but in fantasy we generally care about volume of chances and only the truly special players can overcome a lack of chances to become an elite fantasy option. Whether or not Remy is there is questionable but the encouraging point is that while QPR have struggled to create quality chances, a large percentage of them (42%) are falling at Remy's feet and thus he can still succeed despite his teams limitations. The fixtures look good enough and Remy comes at a nice discount, suggesting he too deserves a look in this crowded mid level group.
Status: Buy

Morgan Schneiderlin
Schneiderlin's shot totals look balanced but only in the same way that the return on investment earned on sticking your money under the mattress is consistent every year. Simply put, he isn't a fantasy option.
Status: Sell

Stephane Sessegnon
Sessegnon was one of the players I was interested in coming into the year and while it feels like he never really got going this campaign, his totals will actually end being okay. I'm not crazy about this Sunderland team's consistency and I do fear that they could be one of those teams who simply drift through the rest of the season if the results suggest they are relatively safe in the next couple of weeks. The next six games look pretty tough after this week's visit of Norwich and for 7.1m Sessegnon is too expensive to be spot starting sporadically.
Status: Sell

Gylfi Sigurdsson
Good player, bad situation. Lennon and Dempsey are both said to be close to a return, with Adebayor also rated as 75% to play this week to further cloud the playing time at White Hart Lane. I like this Spurs team and really want another way to access it outside of Bale but Villas Boas hasn't shown too much faith in Sigurdsson when everyone is fit and I'm not willing to bet 7.8m that he changes his mind at this point in the year.
Status: Sell

David Silva
Oh David, what happened? Once hailed as the best fantasy midfielder in the league, his shot totals are now so meager that even his ultra-elite assist potential can only rescue him to the point of justifying a price tag about 2.0m less than his own. I've been waiting for City to turn things around all year, and while they've shown flashes at times, the inability to get their best players on the pitch and in the key positions has cost them and anyone who invested in their stars. The upcoming games don't look great and with plenty of other elite midfield options, the great Spaniard simply isn't an option anymore.
Status: Sell

Luis Suarez
Suarez's trend numbers look a touch worrying, but remember that they are based on just two games worth of data given Liverpool's lack of fixture in GW27. Needless to say he hasn't justified his insane points return over those couple of weeks (it would be impossible to do so based on an average model like mine) but there is really nothing in the data or the narrative to cause any concern here. The only slight knock are the fixtures which see Liverpool face three away games in the next four (all to teams fighting to stay in the league) compounded by a lack of a double gameweek enjoyed by some of his peers. Still, right now you're getting van Persie production for a 20% discount so you can't have everything.
Status: Buy

Carlos Tevez
Meh. Like Silva, it's hard to totally write Tevez off as these players are so talented that they can make a humble blogger look rather foolish, but the odds just aren't in Tevez's favour with his recent 'form' looking to be as much attributable to a higher G/SoT conversion rate than some sustainable skill improvement or tactical revelation. Throw in a continued lack of guaranteed playing time and you have a player whose production is closer to the pack behind him rather than the elite pair ahead of him and thus he's another City prospect I'm out on for now.
Status: Sell

Andreas Weimann
Weimann has done really well when he's played and he actually rated atop the model projections for last week but I filtered him out due to the lack of sample size of his production. He's creating a lot of chances to supplement a healthy shot total, while his ratios have remained solid and consistent throughout his starts. With Bent close to a return and N'Zogbia/Agbonlahor also competing for finite time alongside Benteke, I'm a bit nervous about how often Weimann will play, but for 5.0m he's certainly worth a look and would make a nice third forward for those needing to free up cash to use elsewhere. The playing time risk might make me hesitate about using a transfer on him (for fear you'll need to sell again very soon) but if you're lucky enough to have the wildcard in hand, Weimann is a nice option to supplement your elite picks.
Status: Cautious buy in the right situation

Yaya Toure
The good news is that he's probably offering close to the same value as teammate Silva (with a slightly lower assist threat) but I'm not sure that's even enough to justify his price tag. Yaya seems to be used in an advanced role more sparingly this season and given City's upcoming games I just can't get excited about him anymore.
Status: Sell

Lineup Lessons Gameweek 29

2013-03-11T02:55:00.001Z

Aston Villa
Guzan, Lowton, Clark, Vlaar, Baker, Weimann, Bannan, Westwood, Sylla, Agbonlahor, Benteke
Subs: Given, N'Zogbia, Holman, Bowery, Dawkins, Bennett, Carruthers

After a couple of promising outings, N'Zogbia once again found himself back on the bench which only serves to underline that unless your squad is very deep, he's a luxury that can't really be afforded at this stage of the season, even if Villa have been better in the second half of the season. The rest of this team is fairly predictable with Sylla the only odd name here, though obviously not one to cause too many fantasy waves despite a promising first full game. Bent's miserable season continues, though he looks like he could be fit in the next week or so, which mind dent any meagre value offered by Weimann or Agbonlahor.

Liverpool
Jones, Johnson, Carragher, Agger, Jose Enrique, Lucas, Gerrard, Downing, Suarez, Coutinho, Sturridge
Subs: Gulacsi, Skrtel, Shelvey, Allen, Henderson, Sterling, Wisdom

Fans of the teams out in front don't often don't want to hear it, but this Liverpool side are very much for real. For a while their production was severely straggling behind their underlying stats though aside from Suarez taking a few too many ill advised shots from long range, I never saw too many concrete reasons as to why this was the case. We can point to a number of factors as to what has changed in Liverpool's play, but Sturridge's arrival seems to have brought a lot of their good points together and since he made his first start in GW23, they have been simply unplayable, racking up 21 goals from 133 shots (42 on target) - a full eight goals clear of the next best teams (Arsenal and Newcastle). Now, that goal/SoT rate looks unsustainably high so some caution needs to be exercised here before pencilling this side in for another 20-24 goals this year, but when you consider their floor, ceiling and - chiefly - the predictability of where those goals might come from, this is an exciting side to target. We might see the midfield trio of Allen, Henderson and Sterling steal a few minutes here and there for the rest of the season but generally this side looks to be very settled and given the aforementioned factors, should be an important part of your considerations when setting up your team for the final push.

Newcastle
Elliot, Debuchy, S Taylor, Yanga-Mbiwa, Santon, Cabaye, Tiote, Gutierrez, Sissoko, Gouffran, Cisse
Subs: Harper, Anita, Perch, Haidara, Marveaux, Obertan, Campbell

We've observed a significant amount of turnover in this side this year, though for the most part it has been caused by injury rather than manager rotation. Newcastle are still missing a couple of first teamers, with Ben Arfa apparently set to come back sooner rather than later, but otherwise this is likely your team for the remainder of the season. Where Ben Arfa fits in isn't too clear, but if you had to bet you might think it would be at the expense of Gouffran rather than Gutierrez, who's been virtually ever-present this year and brings a bit more of the defensive responsibility that his teammates lack. Sissoko has obviously caught the eye as a legit goal scoring threat since coming on the scene but Cabaye has also quietly racked up 18 shots over the last six games (though with 17 of them from outside the box, I'm not suggesting he's in the class of the some of his peers in that same total shot range).

Norwich
Bunn, Martin, Bassong, Turner, Garrido, Snodgrass, Johnson, Howson, Pilkington, Kamara, Holt
Subs: Camp, Whittaker, Hoolahan, Fox, E Bennett, Becchio, R Bennett

Norwich have added a bit of depth up front in Becchio and Kamara though neither have done too much to really spark our interest and time is probably running out for them to be impactful this year. Holt remains an option if you've been priced out of the Benteke/Berbatov/Lukaku market, though that trio offer substantially higher ceilings than the consistent, if underwhelming, Holt.

QPR
Green, Bosingwa, Samba, Hill, Da Silva, Townsend, Park, Mbia, Hoilett, Zamora, Remy
Subs: Murphy, Wright-Phillips, Mackie, Granero, Onuoha, Jenas, Bothroyd

QPR enjoy good depth on the bench here but Redknapp has shown some faith in the majority of his starters this past month, giving us a couple of players to at least look at. I like what I've seen of Remy and believe he's at least worth a look at 5.9m (preferring him to the aforementioned Holt if you're priced out of that 6.5-7.1m group). Saying that, his lack of volume of chances will always hurt his upside and QPR are always prone to simply throwing a blank out against the league's better sides, but without too many of those fixtures left, Remy might be an option if you need to save a bit of cash to free up space for a couple of the elite options with double gameweeks coming up. Outside of Taarabt's mirage-like stat line, the rest of this midfield hasn't shown us a great deal and thus it doesn't appear to offer much value, even at bargain prices.

Reading
Taylor, Kelly, Pearce, Mariappa, Harte, Robson-Kanu, Akpan, Leigertwood, McAnuff, Hunt, Le Fondre
Subs: Henly, Shorey, Karacan, McCleary, Morrison, Guthrie, Blackman

Le Fondre got his second straight start this week, perhaps signalling that Reading are ready to place an emphasis on scoring goals - an advanced concept that is taking the league by storm. Whether or not there's enough certainty here to warrant investment is still a tricky issue, but as noted above, the key driver for these coming weeks could well be the need to fill your team with elite double gameweekers, so the flexibility a 5.0m forward can offer your team is not to be ignored. The narrative for Robson-Kanu (Reading's 4th top scorer) is almost exactly the same as with Le Fondre, with the midfielder offering nice value in the lowest price bracket, if only given a modicum of consistent minutes. His six shots over the last couple of games place him 6th among midfielders, as do his three efforts on target, yet I wouldn't be too surprised to see one of the other dubious options restored next week, so caveat emptor is the name of the game here.

Southampton
Boruc, Yoshida, Fonte, Hooiveld, Shaw, Fox, Schneiderlin, Rodriguez, Ramirez, Lallana, Lambert
Subs: K Davis, Clyne, Forren, Ward-Prowse, Do Prado, Chaplow, Puncheon

It was a big surprise to see both Clyne and Puncheon benched, as - at least in my limited viewings of Southampton this year - that pair have been a couple of consistent bright spots. What to do with them now isn't clear, though my instinct would be that both will be back soon and thus panic moves are probably best avoided, particularly as their budget prices allow them to be benched without too many issues. The timing of them being benched when most fantasy squads were decimated by bye weeks was however frustrating to say the least.

Stoke
Begovic, Cameron, Shawcross, Wilson, Wilkinson, Shotton, Whelan, Nzonzi, Walters, Jerome, Crouch
Subs: Sorensen, Jones, Owen, Adam, Whitehead, Kightly, Shea

Wilson made his third start since returning from injury and my bet is that he will stay in the lineup at the expense of Wilkinson when Huth is back from suspension (though that one isn't set in stone). If that's the case he will represent excellent defensive value at just 3.9m. Not too much else going on here with the likes of Adam, Jones and Kightly still finding themselves on the outside looking in.

Sunderland
Mignolet, Gardner, Bramble, O'Shea, Colback, Sessegnon, Larsson, N'Diaye, Johnson, Fletcher, Graham
Subs: Westwood, Bardsley, Rose, Kilgallon, Vaughan, Mangane, Cuellar

No real issues to note here though with Bardsley, Rose and Cuellar all fit enough for the bench, we're likely to see some movement along the back line in the coming weeks. Sunderland haven't offered too much value at the back this year, though they've been playing midfielders at full back for essentially the whole season, so the return of this group would be a welcome boost. The fixtures don't offer up too many games where a clean sheet looks too likely though, so any enthusiasm for a quick turnaround should probably be tempered.

Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Monk, Williams, Davies, Hernandez, de Guzman, Ki, Routledge, Michu, Moore
Subs: Tremmel, Bartley, Dyer, Lamah, Shechter, Tiendalli, Gower

Nothing really to note here and it's another so-so performance from this once-darling Swansea side. I don't want to be down on this team, who have been very good at times this year, but over the last six gameweeks they rank just 14th in total shots, scoring just six times and there is a slight danger of this season petering out a little bit unless they can get back on track. In fantasy terms their current 'struggles' make me apprehensive about getting behind anyone other than Michu, though he himself should probably be somewhat questioned given Swansea's tough set of fixtures.

Tottenham
Lloris, Walker, Vertonghen, Dawson, Assou-Ekotto, Parker, Livermore, Bale, Dembele, Sigurdsson, Defoe
Subs: Friedel, Huddlestone, Gallas, Naughton, Holtby, Caulker, Carroll

With Adebayor and Lennon sidelined, Spurs didn't have too many options here, though I did think Holtby had shown enough to maybe get a start here. This is a useful Spurs team who can score against anyone, though it's still tough to see beyond Bale. The defense looks solid on paper, though with just two clean sheets in the last ten gameweeks, it's not easy to fit any of these options in here other than perhaps Dawson given his lower price tag (no, I don't believe Vertonghen's goal threat compensates for the extra 1.7m outlay).

West Brom
Foster, Jones, McAuley, Olsson, Ridgewell, Yacob, Mulumbu, Dorrans, Morrison, Brunt, Lukaku
Subs: Myhill, Tamas, Popov, Rosenberg, Thomas, Odemwingie, Fortune

Nothing much going on here either. I guess however that this is the point in the weekly post where I note that Lukaku now ranks 6th among all forwards in SiB, despite playing between 30-45% less minutes than most of his competitors. The penalty miss was a shame but the bigger issue remains Shane Long's return from injury which could once again cut into the Chelsea loanee's minutes.

Gameweek 29 Preview, or, while my fantasy team gently weeps

2013-03-08T21:25:00.002Z

Look guys, it's going to be carnage this week. I would genuinely take 20 points if offered right now, but given the lack of great options available, I don't believe it's a situation where splashing out on four points is going to really help. Even if you have a wildcard, selling out for this week is likely a bad idea as you don't want to be setup with no players from teams like Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal. In short then, just try and minimise your losses and target selling players who have an off week and whose future prospects you aren't crazy about (Everton players spring to mind here given their upcoming fixtures).

To address a point that will almost certainly come up if anyone links to this page, you'll notice that the all conquering Gareth Bale finds himself well down the rankings despite all the talent missing this week. I understand that this goes against your gut, but please remember that this model is based on statistical averages and is not supposed to simply make every decision for us. If you believe Bale is better than his underlying stats and can unlock a Liverpool defense who have generally been outstanding at home, then feel free to captain him, but until I see something concrete to suggest he can outperform all the facts, I'm happy holding him down a couple of places this week (any suggestions of why he can out shoot that averages are welcomed in the comments section).

Good luck, it's going to be a rough week

Clean sheet rankings

Attacking rankings

Individual rankings

What's happening in Salford?

2013-03-06T05:58:00.000Z

Regular readers will know that one of the key drivers behind my team goal model (which ultimately backs up a lot of the individual player data too) is based on shot totals, split between those inside and outside the box. I like shots on target too, of course, but the reason I have opted for total shots in the model is for fear that over a short period, shots on target can be a bit misleading for individual players as, just as we wouldn't expect a player to score every time he hits the target, we equally wouldn't expect him to actually hit the target every time either.

With that in mind, I want to draw your attention to some interesting shot data from this and last year and open up the floor to suggestions as to (a) what is going on and (b) how we should deal with it next year. You'll notice that a lot of the posts for these remaining few weeks are going to be a bit more 'blue sky' than normal, mainly because there's only so many times you can write up the same lineup lessons are suggest that Michu is due for regression.

To start then, let's look at some likely familiar charts from prior year, first showing the strong relationship between created chances and shots inside the box and then between shots inside the box and goals:

The first chart actually shows a slightly stronger correlation than expected as I thought it was reasonable for teams to rack up 'created chances' without necessarily registering a good shot on goal. Anyway, that strength of relationship suggests created chances should probably feature more heavily in the next model as a way of normalizing SiB. The second chart plots SiB against goals and shows a slightly weaker relationship that I had in mind but an r-squared of 0.72 suggests there's enough here to still rely on. The variance between expected and actual goals per this trend line were as below:

The relationship is far from concrete but generally it looks like the better teams were out shooting the expected goals while the poorer teams struggled to meet expectations (Blackburn and to a degree Liverpool were the key exceptions there. In short though, there's a decent relationship here with a couple of exceptions to keep in mind. Let's move onto this year then:

So far, so good as once again we see a strong relationship between chances created and total goals. This again suggests that the better teams who enjoy good possession in dangerous areas and/or threaten from deep balls into the box are getting more SiB and thus goals. The tricky point comes with the next chart though:

What on earth is happening with Man Utd here (the title of this post was a little dig at United's location in the North West for those outside of the UK)? Again, let's look at the variance from the line of best fit:

Once again United are the largest outlier and the only team who have really shown any consistency to over or under perform the SiB forecast goals over the two seasons (Villa's underperformance looks like the next closest match).

This is the point where the analysis ends and the speculation begins. We can all think of subjective reasons why this is the case for United, but are any of them backed up by stats:

They have the best forwards, who are the most clinical and thus convert equally promising shots as other teams but at a higher rate
They create better chances than other teams which are thus easier to convert
They've simply enjoyed a couple of seasons where they've out scored their underlying stats and thus could regress
Something else

With almost two full seasons of data I think we're at a point where it's unlikely that United are simply getting lucky but I haven't been able to locate anything in the data to concretely prove, and the predict what in their game makes them so much more efficient with their chances. Once again, I throw the question out to the readers to see what we can come up with.

Shot on Target ratio

2013-03-04T04:41:00.000Z

One of the areas we need to work on over the summer is how shots on target are converted into goals, specifically the split between types of shot. We've observed that, on average, shots on target become goals at a league wide steady rate (30%-33% depending on position), but on an individual level things are more complicated. We consistently see players like Adel Taarabt show up as outliers in that they've taken a lot of shots, hit the target but yet not received the final reward.

One of the obvious starting points is to look at the ratio of shots taken inside and outside the box, and this is something that is already baked into the current model. However, playing around with some data recently, I put together a graphic which hopefully lays out some of the questions that remain unanswered, and I hope to spark some debate to push this forward in the offseason.

SiB Ratio - percentage of shots taken inside the box
G/SoT - percentage of shots on target converted into goals (excluding penalties)

On first glance, the signs aren't too promising here. We don't observe a particularly strong relationship between the two ratios and we see successful players scattered all over the chart. If we focus on those players who've notched more goals this year (represented by a larger circle) though, we can see something develop, with only a handful of players managing to really defy the logical trend of having a lower G/SoT rate is they taken less shots inside the box:

One thing that could potentially explain some of this variance is the fact that this quartet of players all take a large number of set pieces, all ranking in the top 10 among midfielders:

1. Bale 24 attempts, 0 non penalty goals
4. Gerrard 18 attempts, 0 non penalty goals
7. Cazorla 16 attempts, 0 non penalty goals
10. Lampard 14 attempts, 1 non penalty goal

I must say it wasn't particularly intuitive to me to think that taking set pieces would be a bad thing for a player's stats, but it does seem that in terms of their impact on ratios, scoring a long range free kick does seem harder than scoring a long range effort in open play. I therefore think that for future iterations of the model we need to further distinguish between not just SiB and SoB but also shots taken from set pieces. The issue is that from the Opta data I currently use, we don't seem to have a distinction between shots from set pieces in terms of long range efforts and those where a player gets on the end of a cross from a set piece (which presumably have a decent chance of being converted). As I say, the search for a magic formula continues.

At this point in the season there are more pressing issues to think about (like trying to field a GW29 lineup!) but I want to keep these questions in the background to make sure they are ready to be discussed over the offseason. On that issue, I will be guest writing in a new fantasy publication called InsideFPL which launched last week. At this stage it is still a developing idea so any suggestions or comments would be welcome but I encourage everyone to sign up and give it a read as it could represent an exciting forum to discuss fantasy football and there are some excellent writers already on board.

Gameweek 28 Preview

2013-03-01T02:17:00.000Z

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Second half stats

2013-02-22T05:16:00.001Z

It's been a busy couple of months for me which has unfortunately meant that posts around these parts have been minimal and basically limited to weekly stat updates. Hopefully my proverbial calender is now a bit clearer so for the first time we can get back to actually providing some analysis.

I'm going to start with a quick one - just something that came together while looking at some other data. I've calculated the expected goals (xG) for every player in the league (regressed using league conversion rates) for the first 19 weeks of the season and then the gameweeks since. I'm not generally a fan of arbitrary cut off points but the one advantage of using the 19 game mark is that, generally, this will mean that each team has played each other once. Individual circumstances may apply to specific players (such as a change in club, or change in position) but as a general point I believe the 19:19 split is useful.

With that then, here's the data plotting players' xG for GW1-19 on the x axis against their xG for GW20+ on the y axis. Those on the left of the line have 'performed' better in the second half of the year, while those on the right have seen their production decline. It should be noted here that these numbers are player time adjusted.

I guess the first thing that jumps out is that no one has really exploded since the halfway point in the year (or vice versa) which suggests that their is a strong element of predictability to these stats - a point which should give us faith for future projections. We do however have a couple of players to highlight:

Demba Ba - it's hardly mind blowing to suggest that Ba's value has fallen since his move to Chelsea, mostly due to the lack of guaranteed playing time, but we can see hear that his average production has also fallen; from an elite forward to just another warm body. I can only think that his vast ownership (22%) is due to a high number of dead teams, but if you're among that group, please act accordingly.

Marouane Fellani - I didn't expect to see the Belgian's name on this list, but looking closer at the stats, it's possible that he is one of those dangerous players who we collectively assume can be plugged into a team for the remainder of the year, when in reality better value can be found elsewhere. His data is still fine (10 SiB since GW20) but in context with other midfield options (Walcott 22, Michu 15, Puncheon 14 and Nolan 12) he doesn't quite look like the no-brainer option he once was. It would likely be foolish to part ways now, with Norwich and Reading on deck, but after that Everton face Arsenal, City, Stoke and Spurs, which together with this decline in stat production should make Fellaini owners at least browse the other available options.

Wayne Rooney - Rooney was one the reasons I ran these numbers, and having planned to bring him in this week, it's somewhat concerning to see him fall on the wrong side of the line. Saying that, I think we have a real issue of small sample size here, given that the English front man has only played 3.5 games during the "second half" of the season (scoring three goals in the process). Still, seven SiB in that period doesn't compare favorably with the likes of Suarez (22), van Persie (17) or even someone like Benteke (20), even when adjusting for playing time. As a stand alone factor this wouldn't be enough to stop me investing here yet together with his doubtful status for this week, followed by the off week in GW29, this doesn't look a great investment to make right now. Instead, he should probably be targeted as someone to look to whenever United's double gameweek falls.

Sergio Aguero - The Argentine was the other player I was targeting this week and wanted to check on, and he fares better here than his Manchester rival. It's been a stop-start season for Aguero, whose 9 goal haul feels like a disappointment, despite only racking up 16 starts to date. Mancini gave a typically - and somewhat tired - "changes will be made" speech after the poor performance against Southampton, though he followed that with a ringing endorsement of Aguero after his brace against Leeds so I don't think there's any legitimate worry that playing time is going to be a major concern here. With Aguero also set to miss out in GW29 there's an argument to be made for holding off here too, though I'd be okay plugging the Argentine in for two weeks then assessing if you can afford to bench him later.

Gareth Bale - Bale has been simply outstanding of late, leading all midfielders in shots with 36 in the second half, despite playing one or two games less than his rivals. His first half efforts were good enough to push him close to the top of the scoring charts anyway, and with his increased statistical production, there's good reason to believe he may well end up at the very top come season end. The upcoming games are good rather than great, but given his successful run of late has come during a number of away games and a game against the Champions-in-waiting, we should be fairly confident he can succeed in all but the toughest of fixtures.

Frank Lampard - The chart supports Lampard's return to fantasy relevance quite nicely, though it also serves as a reminder that while Lampard's points production has been elite, the underlying stats - while much improved - aren't sufficient to suddenly catapult him back to elite status. That said, with a steep, though manageable price tag, he remains worth a look over the aforementioned Fellaini or even Michu, given the differential potential on offer.

Gameweek 27 Preview

2013-02-20T05:42:00.000Z

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Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 26

2013-02-14T04:31:00.000Z

Arsenal
Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Jenkinson, Monreal, Arteta, Wilshere, Ramsey, Walcott, Giroud, Cazorla.
Subs: Mannone, Diaby, Rosicky, Podolski, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Miquel.

Podolski was a surprise ommission here, though that one would appear to be an issue of fitness rather than form. Whether or not the German represents good value for money when in the side is another issue, though I do believe he'll be back there soon. Walcott was once again pushed back out wide, though again he was able to enjoy a good statistical game (including five total shots, four SiB) so there's little reason to downgrade the winger based on Giroud's inclusion this week. The deployment at centre back and subsequent dismissal of Jenkinson is a concern in that the team would obviously be weakened with Miquel playing regularly, but Vermaelen and Koscielny both appear to have a chance at making the team next week so owners of Sagna et al shouldn't panic yet, particularly with that promising home fixture to Villa on the docket.

Aston Villa
Guzan, Lowton, Vlaar, Clark, Baker, Weimann, Westwood, Delph, Bowery, N'Zogbia, Benteke
Subs: Given, Bent, Holman, Sylla, Dawkins, Bannan, Bennett

No lineup issues here to comment on though N'Zogbia's continued success and advanced deployment may need more attention in this week's fanning the flames, despite my own personal reluctance to buy in.

Chelsea
Cech, Azpilicueta, Ivanovic, Cahill, Cole, Luiz, Ramires, Oscar, Lampard, Hazard, Torres
Subs: Turnbull, Mata, Ferreira, Marin, Ba, Benayoun, Bertrand

Mata being benched was a huge blow given the strength of the fixture, but it was always on the cards and it's something owners of Chelsea players simply have to live with. The good news is that he will presumably be safe from Benitez's meddling for a while so he would be a good investment after this week's tough trip to the Etihad. The Ba-Torres rotation seems to have swung in the Spaniard's favor, confirming the fact that Ba is simply unownable following his move from Newcastle.

Everton
Howard, Neville, Jagielka, Distin, Baines, Mirallas, Osman, Gibson, Pienaar, Fellaini, Anichebe
Subs: Mucha, Heitinga, Jelavic, Oviedo, Naismith, Hitzlsperger, Stones

Anichebe was again preferred to Jelavic but after failing to notch a single shot all day, one wouldn't be too surprised to see Jelavic restored this week. The rest of this side remains devoid of any serious depth so the other fantasy options look as safe as ever. Neville's performance here underscored the fact that he isn't a particularly strong defender (especially when playing the offside trap, apparently) and owners of the other Everton defenders should probably downgrade this unit slightly until Moyes puts an actual defender (or at least Coleman) back there.

Fulham
Schwarzer, Manolev, Senderos, Hangeland, Riise, Sidwell, Frimpong, Duff, Ruiz, Berbatov, Rodallega
Subs: Etheridge, Petric, Karagounis, Hughes, Dejagah, Emanuelson, Kacaniklic

Manolev got the start in place of Riether, who missed out through illness though given the faith shown in Riether to date, I wouldn't be expecting that move to continue beyond this week. With Hughes apparently sidelines for good, that leaves Senderos as the cheapest option here at 4.7m and given his lack of security in this side (not to mention their lack of defensive success) I wouldn't be in a rush to invest anywhere along this back line until we see this week's defensive success is somewhat sustainable. Going forward the main assets all continue to play yet somewhat underwhelm and thus remain themselves, underwhelming but still ownable.

Liverpool
Reina, Johnson, Carragher, Agger, Jose Enrique, Lucas, Gerrard, Henderson, Downing, Shelvey, Suarez
Subs: Jones, Coutinho, Allen, Borini, Sterling, Skrtel, Wisdom

Given the performance of Agger here, together with the fact that Carragher remains determined yet ultimately a flawed defender these days, it would be surprising if Skrtel didn't find himself back in this side sooner rather than later. I'm afraid the same cannot be said about the potentially valuable Wisdom as the full back pairing have been solid enough of late, so anyone who jumped in at 4.3m should probably be thinking about alternatives, likely not from this side given the prices involved here for what is ultimately a fairly average defensive unit. Going forward it was a blow for Sturridge to miss out after there were suggestions he would be fit enough to play, though on the bright side, Liverpool were still able to create plenty of chances and were unfortunate not to find the back of the net. Continued attacking play like this should like to Suarez and (when fit) Sturridge offering good fantasy value.

Man City
Hart, Zabaleta, Lescott, Javi Garcia, Clichy, Nasri, Toure, Barry, Silva, Aguero, Dzeko
Subs: Pantilimon, Maicon, Milner, Sinclair, Kolarov, Rodwell, Toure

Looking at this fairly strong bench doesn't exactly scream of a team with no depth, but unfortunately for City, one of their comparably weak positions has also been hurt with injuries and thus this defense was once again exposed. As the four straight clean sheets in GW21-24 show, there is certainly potential here but with Kompany and to a lesser extent Nastasic, it's tough to see any in the back line offering too much value. Mancini believes that some of his players lacked the "big balls" required to succeed in this league and thus we can probably expect widespread changes this week. Given this uncertainty and the suddenly mediocre stats being put out by the likes of Aguero, I'm lukewarm on this whole attacking side and you might want to steer clear until we know just how much turnover we're going to see and what impact it has.

Man Utd
De Gea, Da Silva, Vidic, Evans, Evra, Valencia, Cleverley, Jones, Giggs, Rooney, van Persie
Subs: Amos, Anderson, Smalling, Hernandez, Carrick, Nani, Welbeck

There was talk of a couple of United's stars being rested here given the midweek Champions League fixture but Ferguson decided to stick with his first team and United got a pretty big win in the title race. This would suggest however that van Persie and Rooney might be rested at some point in the next few games, though as with Mata above, this is something you simply have to bake into your assessment of a given player's value. With City's front line full of question marks and Rooney himself subject to the same risk as his teammate, the options to replace van Persie look somewhat thin (though as we've said multiple times, it's a risk that must be taken for those scrambling to make ground).

Newcastle
Krul, Debuchy, Coloccini, S Taylor, Santon, Perch, Sissoko, Cabaye, Gutierrez, Gouffran, Cisse
Subs: Harper, Anita, Yanga-Mbiwa, Marveaux, Shola Ameobi, Tiote, Obertan

The new boys look to be nicely bedded in here and with the exception of Tiote for Perch, you'd think this is the first team that will be the first choice until Ben Arfa returns. Whether or not there are too many legit fantasy options here is tough to say given the lack of sample size, but through a handful of games at least I think we can put Sissoko onto the watchlist alongside Cabaye who has offered very good value when he's been healthy. Needless to say, all these new arrivals have unfortunately ended Marveaux nice run as an uber-cheap midfield option.

Norwich
Bunn, Martin, Bassong, Turner, Garrido, Snodgrass, Tettey, Johnson, E Bennett, Hoolahan, Becchio
Subs: Camp, Whittaker, Howson, Jackson, Surman, Kamara, Tierney

Not too much exciting going on here, though one point of note is that Whittaker is now fit and hasn't taken Martin's spot back, which is a nice boost to his value (not that too many people were exactly waiting on that decision with baited breath). Holt apparently woke up with a back issue and hence missed out this week, and though Hughton has since suggested it isn't a long term problem it's enough to make him very sellable, especially considering his so-so form and the presence of Becchio to threaten his playing time.

QPR
Julio Cesar, Onuoha, Samba, Hill, Traore, Townsend, Derry, Mbia, Jenas, Taarabt, Mackie
Subs: Green, Park, Wright-Phillips, Granero, Ben Haim, Zamora, Bothroyd

We have seen increased stability in this lineup since Redknapp brought in some of his preferred players, yet no one has really emerged as a fantasy threat over that time. Taarabt will always have his attractions but I'm personally not going there again, and while this defence have had some joy of late, their underlying stats do not suggest sustainable value so I'm pretty much out on this team.

Reading
Federici, Kelly, Pearce, Mariappa, Harte, Kebe, Akpan, Leigertwood, McAnuff, Blackman, Pogrebnyak
Subs: S Taylor, Shorey, Karacan, Le Fondre, Hunt, McCleary, Morrison

A couple of changes here but honestly this isn't a team to waste to much time on. The only player who has come close to generating the kind of stats or production required to be a regular fantasy starter is Le Fondre who cannot seem to get a break in this side, so until he makes a return or something drastic happens, I'm out.

Southampton
Boruc, Clyne, Yoshida, Hooiveld, Fox, Cork, Schneiderlin, S Davis, Puncheon, Rodriguez, Lambert
Subs: K Davis, Forren, Ward-Prowse, Lee, Lallana, Richardson, Chaplow

We've seen a nicely settled lineup at Southampton all season, especially with Lallana sidelined for a while. Now he's back, someone is going to miss out and based on the lineups before Lallana was injured, it looks like Rodriguez could be the man to miss out.

Stoke
Begovic, Shotton, Shawcross, Huth, Wilkinson, Kightly, Nzonzi, Whelan, Etherington, Walters, Crouch
Subs: Sorensen, Cameron, Jones, Owen, Adam, Whitehead, Jerome

Again, this is another settled lineup with only Jones and Adam seeing their minutes consistently rotated. It' tough to find too much of interest of top, though I guess Walters and Crouch offer some very safe yet low ceiling returns, while defensively this is a good side and Wilkinson appears to be the cheap link here.

Sunderland
Mignolet, Gardner, Bramble, O'Shea, Rose, Sessegnon, Cattermole, N'Diaye, Colback, Johnson, Fletcher
Subs: Westwood, Bardsley, Larsson, Graham, Vaughan, Mangane, Cuellar

A lot of these teams are making this column somewhat obsolete as Sunderland are another side who have little to talk about each week. I'm not sure there's enough consistency in this side to warrant the prices some of these players carry but if nothing else they do offer regular playing time.

Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Chico, Williams, Davies, Hernandez, de Guzman, Ki, Routledge, Dyer, Michu
Subs: Tremmel, Bartley, Lamah, Shechter, Moore, Tiendalli, Agustien

Nothing to add here either

Tottenham
Lloris, Walker, Dawson, Caulker, Naughton, Lennon, Parker, Dembele, Holtby, Dempsey, Bale
Subs: Friedel, Vertonghen, Adebayor, Gallas, Sigurdsson, Livermore, Assou-Ekotto

I wondered if Holtby might threaten Dempsey's playing time but it was a surprise to see them play together and without a recognised front man. Without seeing the whole game it's to say who played that role, but the average position charts at least suggest that it was essentially a 4-3-3 with Bale, Holtby and Dempsey all getting significant time up field (Bale of course led the trio with eight touches inside the box to the other pair's four). At 7.5m Holtby is an interesting prospect but I'd like to see confirmation that he is ahead of Dempsey in the pecking order before pulling the trigger there as presumably Adebayor will at some point retake his place atop this formation.

West Brom
Foster, Reid, McAuley, Olsson, Ridgewell, Yacob, Mulumbu, Dorrans, Morrison, Brunt, Long
Subs: Myhill, Rosenberg, Lukaku, Jones, Tamas, Fortune, Thomas

It feels to me like Lukakau should be all but undroppable but given West Brom are always likely to be somewhat cautious away from home, there will occasions when he or Long will be forced to sit out. This week, of course, Lukaku was able to get his points in just 17 minutes of work but if you're playing the odds that situation isn't going to lead to sustainable production and it was that factor that personally led to me grabbing Benteke over his Belgian teammate. A quick glance at the fixture list may well end Lukaku's usefuleness for a little while longer too.

West Ham
Jaaskelainen, O'Brien, Reid, Tomkins, Pogatetz, Noble, Diame, Nolan, Taylor, J Cole, Carroll
Subs: Spiegel, Jarvis, C Cole, Vaz Te, Demel, Chamakh, O'Neil

We're seeing a number of changes here with basically everyone other than Nolan subject to Allardyce's rotation whim. That, together with a lack of consistent production makes it hard to see too much value here, especially with Carroll coming with an overly steep price tag. Despite a few disappointing results of late, this remains a startable defence at home with a fit again O'Brien the pick of the pack.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Stam, Scharner, Caldwell, Figueroa, McCarthy, McArthur, Beausejour, Espinoza, Maloney, Di Santo
Subs: Robles, Kone, Jones, Henriquez, Gomez, McManaman, Golobart

Kone is back from the ACN so figures to slide back into this side soon, hopefully not at the expense of Maloney who has provided solid returns this year for his price. The rest of the side looks fairly settled yet thoroughly uninspiring.

Gameweek 26 Preview

2013-02-08T05:29:00.002Z

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Dousing the fire, fanning the flames: Gameweek 25

2013-02-08T02:04:00.001Z

As in prior weeks, each player is assigned a 'buy', 'hold/monitor' or 'sell' status. These do not necessarily reflect what I would personally do, rather what I suggest to be a decision based in logic. For example, I might feel that Rooney represents better value than van Persie, but I would still 'buy' the Dutchman's success and consider him very ownable. The different assigned statuses are summarised as:

Buy - the player can be purchased immediately taking consideration of his playing time, fixtures, injury status etc. This status does not necessarily mean you should buy him now as it depends who else you own, only that it is reasonable to do so.
Hold, and/or monitor - if you own the player you're not in a rush to sell him but there's sufficient risk here to justify potential buyers holding off.
Sell - the player has too many risks and should either be sold or not purchased. This does not mean he might not have value in the future, just not right now.

The below analysis is best reviewed alongside the player dashboards, which show all the stats highlighted within the narrative.

Marouane Fellaini
Come the end of the season, barring any surprising developments, we will likely be able to make a fairly compelling argument for Fellaini being one of this year's MVPs. The only real knock on him has been the few games he's missed but assuming he can stay on the field for the rest of the year I see no reason why his myriad of owners would want to sell (other than the fact there are so many of them). Playing devil's advocate, his overall shot totals aren't quite what they were to open the year, but he's taking a huge proportion of them within the box and his nine SiB (eight SoT) are more than enough to justify his couple of goals and the upcoming games look good enough to keep the good times rolling.
Status: Buy, though as with all the widely held players, those looking to gain ground should at least consider looking elsewhere

Jimmy Kebe
Kebe isn't taking a particularly advanced position every week and despite his three goals over the last four gameweeks. Over the last six games those three shots are his only ones he has managed to register on target and there just isn't the volume of chances here to support a large and consistent points haul. At 4.6m he isn't bad value of course though he isn't someone I'd want to be targetting right now either.
Status: Monitor given his price tag but he's not as exciting a prospect as his latest haul suggests

Victor Anichebe
I've liked Anichebe for a while as a player and commented during his impressive spell filling in for Fellaini that I almost he got a move away from Goodison so he could earn so consistent minutes. The thought of his permanently displacing Jelavic didn't seem too likely but that appears to have happened - at least in the short term. The underlying data during his run in the first team is probably best categorised as good rather than great as while the seven SoT over his last six games look promising, the fact they came on just 11 total shots suggests he could be in for a little bit of regression in the future. For 4.4m he's a great option though and if you have any confidence at all that he'll continue to start, he looks like a no brainer replacement for more fancied Le Fondre (who unfortunately can't seem to buy a start), Pogrebnyak or Petric. I wouldn't however be quick to rearrange my strategy around grabbing him though as if he's benched, you'll be left with few escape plans, other than paying for multiple transfers.
Status: Buy if he fits your team structure but don't move heaven and earth to fit him in

Gareth Bale
The model still puts Bale third among midfielders (behind Mata and Walcott), though it's close enough that Bale's relatively low ownership makes him an attractive pickup. Few, if any, players are as involved in their team's success (at least among the bigger teams) and if I had to pick one elite midfielder to guarantee me elite returns, it would probably be the Tottenham winger. Chelsea's excellent looking home fixtures make it somewhat tough to part with Mata but those holding any of the other elite midfielders (especially those more widely held than Bale) should certainly consider making that move.
Status: Buy

Christian Benteke
I'm not sure what Benteke has to do to get some serious fantasy attention, but I'll continue to ride the undervalued forward until everyone realises how criminally underrated he is. I'd be remiss if I didn't at least point out that five goals from nine SoT looks a touch high but the fact he's generated 23 total shots (18 SiB) over that same six week period suggests that any regression would likely be slight and would not be sufficient to make him anything less than an excellent investment. Along with Sturrige, Benteke has, for the first time in a long time, made me consider the viability of not using two 'elite' forwards, especially with the likes of Mata, Bale et al showing no signs of slowing down.
Status: Buy as a long term investment though it might be sensible to hold off until after the Arsenal and City fixtures if you aren't already on board

Steven Gerrard
One of the stories from this year I wish I'd make a bigger deal about is the return of Gerrard and Lampard to not to just relevance, but in Gerrard's case at least, fantasy glory. I'm vaguely on board with Gerrard, in that he offers high upside with low ownership numbers, but a closer look at his underlying data underlines a couple of well expected points which would make me nervous about making the kind of investment needed to acquire his services (and, of course, the opportunity cost of therefore missing out on the likes of Mata, Bale or Walcott). His 15 shots over the last six games look fine, comparable to players like Cazorla (15), Fellaini (14) or Silva (13), but the fact that (a) just five of Gerrard's efforts have come inside the box and (b) he's managed to add just seven touches inside the opponents box (compared to Fellaini's 43, for example) makes me very nervous about the sustainability of his future success. There is certainly merit in investing here and the same issues noted above can be applied to several other widely held assets (including Cazorla himself). Saying that though, if I'm going to take a risk somewhere to differentiate my elite options I'm not sure this is where I'd set my sights, even if I do have a tendency to show bias towards players who have enjoyed previous success.
Status: A very speculative buy based more on past glories but in all likelihood better value will exist elsewhere for the remainder of the season.

Sergio Aguero
Ah Sergio, my fantasy kryptonite. This week's game makes me slightly nervous about his longer term prospects (though his amazing finish serves as a nice reminder how insanely talented he is) but I still can't quit the Argentian star. Over his last six games he's still managed to rack up 25 total shots (second only to the free-shooting Suarez), while his 19 SiB and 13 SoT again only trail his South American rival. With Balotelli gone, the pathway is slightly less cluttered for Aguero and with City only now involved in the league and the FA Cup, the threat of rotation which has clouded his prospects all year should at least in part be alleviated. Admittedly, Aguero hasn't always shone as brightly this year as last but on a points per game basis he's still right there with everyone other than the United front men and given his talent and low ownership numbers, he represents a rare opportunity to genuinely get elite production not enjoyed by the majority of managers in the league.It goes without saying that he comes with more risk than some of his other elite peers but simply dismissing him based on the events of the past x gameweeks is not an advisable position to take.

Suarez is obviously the better option for the double gameweek and the next five or six games are going to make it very hard to part with either of the United duo, but if you trail your opponents it's those kind of decisions that will make the difference and if I'm zigging while others zag for the home straight of the year, Aguero would be my first port of call.
Status: Buy

Andy Carroll
Carroll is a good player who got a raw deal with joining a highly scrutinized team for a price that wasn't really justified (though that's hardly his fault). His sometimes bruising style of play probably does him no favours either but in fantasy of course, we care not for a players appearance, only for his end product. Unfortunately, those discussions end quickly for Carroll given his lofty price tag which just ins't justifiable in this side, but hopefully he can secure a long term deal away from Anfield over the summer and make his mark next year with a new team and a lower price tag.
Status: Sell

Jonas Gutierrez
As the chart shows, Gutierrez's production this week wasn't really supported by the underlying stats and that can really be extended to a wider sample size. This Newcastle side looks promising for the remainder of the year yet I don't see too much of the end results coming Gutierrez's way.
Status: Sell

Morgan Schneiderlin
Your best bet here is to find another 0.5m and grab Puncheon who boasts a 15-6 shot advantage over the last six games.
Status: Sell

Rickie Lambert
I suggested that Fellaini could make a pretty solid argument for fantasy MVP and we should therefore offer Lambert the same courtesy here. He's delivered consistent returns on a very high level all year, playing in every game and notching five or more points an impressive 11 times on the season. The mid level forward group has gotten much deeper of late and if pressed I would probably rank Sturridge, Benteke and Lukaku ahead of Lambert in terms of upside over these coming weeks. Yet, Lambert keeps ticking along and brings an excellent assist threat not offered by most of his peers and thus we shouldn't sleep on the Saints front man when picking that 3rd forward spot. Of course, his substantially higher ownership number leads me to personally lean towards someone like Benteke, but I still advise caution about not ignoring reliability when making decisions.
Status: Buy, though I do feel better options exist in that price bracket

Mark Noble
The penalties are a nice bonus but generally Noble has not put up anything like the kind of numbers we'd like to see to support any kind of sustained production.
Status: Sell

Wayne Rooney
My personal plan - if you will indulge me for a minute - was to grab van Persie with my wildcard then quickly shift out to Rooney to take advantage of the past few games. After enjoying a couple of healthy weeks which saw my ranking improved I suddenly became protectionist and overly risk averse, stuck with the Dutchman and watched Roonet outscore him 21-7. Rooney's P90 of 7.1 is fairly close to van Persie (7.6), as is his goal rate of one every 129 minutes (van Persie is one every 113). His ownership number has fluttered up to 7% over the past few weeks but that is still a huge differentiator compared with most of the elite talents and like Aguero above, represents one of a handful of options who can help close a large gap in your mini leagues without taking a ridiculous risk. Indeed, After Suarez's double gameweek, my own personal plan is still to install this duo for the season run in.
Status: Buy

Edin Dzeko
Dzeko's playing time has been improved of late but with a fully fit Aguero now back in the fold I wouldn't be feeling too comfortable owning him. I understand that he's been good when he's played and his underlying data is pretty comparable to Aguero, yet at 7.4m he's too pricey to have him rotate every couple of weeks and though I hate to ignore such great potential I can't condone getting involved here unless you believe Tevez is virtually done.
Status: Sell

Craig Gardner
My gut reaction here was instant dismissal as other than Gardner's solid free kick ability, I didn't feel he was bringing a great deal to the table. His underlying data is better than I thought though and borderline puts him in a range where we might be interested. Saying that though, this interest would be limited at best and so with a 4.9m price tag it's still wiser to look to the ever reliable Puncheon or take a risk with someone with greater upside like a Shaun Maloney.
Status: Sell

Frank Lampard
We've already discussed one former fantasy great in Steven Gerrard, and now we can look closer at Lampard. He hasn't risen as high up the charts as his England teammate but on a per game basis both his production and underlying stats are significantly better and the only real knock on him is the potential loss of playing time with several other options available to the rotation-happy Benitez. Lampard has averaged a stunning 7.9 P90 for the season and has been simply dominant of late, trailing only Bale in total shots with 22 over his last six games, with half of those coming inside the box (Gerrard remember had just a third from close range). We'd like to see him hit the target with a bit more consistency before we can suggest he can continue his current rate of scoring, but even if he slows down quite considerably, he'd still be a formidable player to own.

The model isn't in love with Lampard's fortunes at all, mainly due to a long stretch of games to open the season but if you were to skew his share of Chelsea's fortunes to only reflect more recent times, his forecast points jump up closer to some of the elite names. I say close because I don't think we should get carried away here and push him in line with the Bales and Matas and the world, but it's not unbelievable to suggest he might be able to hang with the likes of Michu or Walcott who each come with substantially higher ownership numbers.
Status: As with Gerrard, my enthusiasm here is a touch luke warm, though the fact that Lampard is getting more chances inside the box does make me more interested. Still, this remains a very speculative buy for those looking to take a chance.

Shaun Maloney
Maloney surprisingly fell out of favour for a while at Wigan but he's been back with promise of late, notching 15 shots (seven SiB) over the last six gameweeks along with a useful 12 created chances. The only players above him are a who's who of fantasy stars (plus the mercurial Taarabt, of course) and given his price tag (4.8m) he stands out about pretty much everyone (other than the somewhat one dimensional Puncheon) in that mid-low price range. Kone's return from the ACN is a potential blessing and a curse, as it gives Maloney another target to aim for, yet it also makes him rotatable. The deciding factor for me is that fixture list which sees Wigan travel to Chelsea, Reading and Man City in the next four weeks.
Status: I like his prospects for the longer term but those fixtures make it very hard to invest right now

Jay Rodriguez
Southampton's team looks to be back to full strength with Lallana close to full fitness and that will likely spell some pine riding for Rodriguez.
Status: Sell

Bradley Johnson
Johnson had some interesting stats for a while but he's really been limited of late racking up meagre shot totals without adding much by way of created chances.
Status: Sell

Juan Mata
Over a longer period Mata's stats have been just fine so I don't believe there's too much cause for concer, though it does bear mentioning that his numbers over the last six games have been underwelming with just six total shots, though at least five did come inside the box and one of those games saw him play just 18 minutes. Still, for an elite player we'd like to see a lot more than that and continued production at this level will surely see his end results decline. The good news however are his fixtures, particularly those at Stamford Bridge, which see him face Wigan, West Brom and West Ham over the next five gameweeks. The trip to City is a blow but it's hard to get a run of five or six games without at least one tough fixture so overall we would class Mata's fixtures as a boost to his prospects.
Status: He's still a buy, perhaps even a strong one, though be sure to monitor those underlying stats for signs of a return to a deeper role as we saw earlier in the year.

James Milner
Milner has played really well of late, justifiably earning extra playing time and a handful of bonus points to accompany his increased fantasy production. However, his underlying stats just aren't very impressive and with Nasri lurking on the bench, even an increase in playing time is likely to see him play more games rather than all the games.
Status: Sell

Lukas Podolski
Podolski has consistently outperformed his underlying stats this year to the point that he could possibly considered a genuine outlier rather than someone who is simply getting lucky. However, four SiB in six games just isn't going to get it done however clinical you are and with a number of very good looking mid level options it looks like it's time to move on from the German, despite him offering good value to date this season.
Status: Sell

Theo Walcott
Walcott shifted back to the right wing this week so it was encouraging to see him rack up a number of shots despite this deeper role. His upside is of course lower when deployed in midfield rather than up front, but he is still very ownable at either position and there's certainly no reason he has to be sold right now. If however you are chasing points he is one of the widely held options who is probably a touch overheld as his future after GW27 look good rather than great, so I might start putting in a plan to look at someone like Bale or even a riskier bet like Lampard after Arsenal face Villa at home the week after next.
Status: Hold for now but he is sellable

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 25

2013-02-05T02:47:00.001Z

It's been a busy couple of weeks for me personally with non-blog commitments but hopefully we can get back to normal now, starting with this week's lineup lessons. Saying that, with the transfer window now behind us and teams coming into the home straight, we're seeing less changes of note within the key lineups so these updates may move to fortnightly, allowing room to focus on other niche matters like double gameweeks or short term fixtures.

Arsenal

Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Diaby, Arteta, Wilshere, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Walcott, Giroud

Subs: Mannone, Rosicky, Podolski, Andre Santos, Ramsey, Cazorla, Jenkinson

Monreal arrived at the end of the transfer window and came straight in here for the injured Gibbs, looking very accomplished in doing so. At 5.5m though, we didn't see a great deal to suggest he's worth 0.4m more than Sagna, unless you believe Jenkinson offers a genuine threat to the Frenchman's playing time (I don't, despite some rumblings from a few sections of the Emirates). Podolski and Cazorla got the week off though I wouldn't see that as anything more than a simple rest, especially given the fact that Arsenal looked quite a bit more dangerous when they were later introduced. Walcott was pushed back into midfield but still did enough to threaten the opposition goal (four shots, two SiB), though there's no doubting that his upside is reduced if Giroud is preferred up top. He would remain very ownable as a midfielder, though it would be harder to rate him alongside the likes of Bale and Mata if his time as front man is over.

Aston Villa

Guzan, Lowton, Vlaar, Clark, Bennett, Westwood, El Ahmadi, Agbonlahor, N'Zogbia, Weimann, Benteke

Subs: Given, Bent, Holman, Sylla, Bowery, Dawkins, Baker

No real lineup issues here and despite Villa showing an increased ability to score of late, there's not much to get excited about outside of Benteke. If it were earlier in the season I would be tracking N'Zogbia, but by this point, by the time he could have done enough to re-earn our trust, the season may well be over. For less money he'd be worth a hail mary play, but at almost 6.0m he just doesn't look like an investable package.

Chelsea

Cech, Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry, Cole, Ramires, Lampard, Oscar, Mata, Bertrand, Ba

Subs: Turnbull, Torres, Ferreira, Marin, Azpilicueta, Benayoun, Ake

This was mt fear when getting involved with Azpilicueta during the wildcard window, as it always seemed likely that Cahill, and of course Terry, would have something to say about this back line this year. Regular readers will know that I don't like speculating about manager decisions and there's no exception here with anyone from Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry or Azpilicueta potentially droppable, or at least rotatable in a given week. Given the way they've leaked goals of late, the best play may simply be to steer clear of this unit, but if you are a believer, then Cole would not appear to warrant the premium over his teammates given the uncertainty at every other position. Hazard has now served his ban and can return next game, and he will then join Mata as the key options in this side. Lampard still represents a risk, but one which is at least rewarded with high upside and his 4.5% should make anyone looking to gain ground on their opponents take notice. The constant rotation of Ba and Torres effectively ends my interest in either.

Everton

Howard, Jagielka, Heitinga, Distin, Baines, Mirallas, Gibson, Osman, Pienaar, Fellaini, Anichebe

Subs: Mucha, Jelavic, Oviedo, Naismith, Hitzlsperger, Neville, Duffy

After Anichebe played so well in Fellaini's absence, I suggested he could do a really good job for someone if only given a chance. I didn't think that chance would come at Everton, but with Jelavic apparently out of favour, he's been given a chance in the first team and could possibly hold onto it. As a regular starter he would be incredible value at 4.4m and could possibly be used to free funds up for a couple of elite forwards and a deep stable of midfield options. There's a risk that you buy in, only to see Jelavic (who is a genuinely good player too) restored in a matter of games, so there's a big risk here, and it's one I wouldn't build my team around. If however, you are currently sat with someone like Pogrebnyak, Le Fondre (who just can't seem to get a start) or Ruiz, this move makes a lot of short term sense.

Fulham

Schwarzer, Riether, Hangeland, Senderos, Riise, Duff, Karagounis, Baird, Dejagah, Ruiz, Rodallega

Subs: Etheridge, Petric, Frimpong, Hughes, Emanuelson, Davies, Kacaniklic

Old faithful Aaron Hughes missed out here, though with Hangeland now hamstrung, he may get another game in the first team to hold off the threat of Senderos. With one clean sheet since GW9, this is a unit who should not be invested in as mid-level options so if Hughes is done, I think we are. The rest of this side has seen near constant rotation and with the promising Emanuelson coming in (along with Frimpong), that murky situation could yet get murkier. With Berbatov also suffering with a hamstring injury, there's little to get excited about at Craven Cottage.

Liverpool

Reina, Johnson, Agger, Carragher, Jose Enrique, Lucas, Gerrard, Downing, Henderson, Suarez, Sturridge

Subs: Jones, Allen, Borini, Sterling, Shelvey, Skrtel, Wisdom

Another one bites the dust. I feared for Wisdom's future after Rodgers called out his young players after the defeat against Oldham, and that played out here with an experienced back line rolled out this week. With Downing and Henderson playing much better of late, along with Sturridge's arrival, the chance of Jose Enrique or Johnson getting any more minutes in midfield look greatly diminished and thus we've simply got three full backs vying for two spots. Based on this week Wisdom is on the outside looking in, though having played the four games before that, it's possibly too soon to abandon the youngster just yet but if you own him, I would start thinking about alternatives.

Man City

Hart, Zabaleta, Lescott, Nastasic, Clichy, Milner, Javi Garcia, Barry, Silva, Aguero, Dzeko

Subs: Pantilimon, Maicon, Nasri, Sinclair, Kolarov, Rodwell, Tevez

Not a great deal of note here. Tevez continues to be rotated and I'm amazed that so many have stuck with him for this long (in reality a majority of these are probably unmonitored teams, but still). I would love to say that Aguero is now the answer to all our questions, but despite his incredible finish this week, he only managed a single shot for the contest and touched the ball just three times inside the opponents box. My personal plan had been to pair him with Rooney for the run in but City just don't look like the team they were last year so even if Aguero starts every game, I'm no longer so sure he can hit the heights the model once forecast. Saying that, if you're chasing a team with van Persie (45%) and Suarez (35%) already in place, Aguero (along with Rooney) would still be by far my first choice partnership to try and close that gap.

Man Utd

De Gea, Da Silva, Ferdinand, Evans, Evra, Valencia, Cleverley, Carrick, Nani, Rooney, van Persie

Subs: Amos, Anderson, Giggs, Smalling, Hernandez, Welbeck, Kagawa

Not too much to talk about on this side of Manchester (well, technically Salford) either. Kagawa's brief flirtation with relevance is hampered by another benching and it looks like the centre of this midfield is a genuine rotation system with no one player a firmer fixture than any other. That, of course, is good news for Rooney, who I pencilled into my team in my recent wildcard post, and then decided I didn't need as my rise up the rankings made me all too risk averse (for the last time, I am an idiot). His stats have been comparable to van Persie for several weeks now and, again, if you need to gain ground, bringing in the less heralded Englishman for his Dutch teammate is a great place to start.

Newcastle
Krul, Debuchy, S Taylor, Coloccini, Santon, Perch, Cabaye, Gouffran, Sissoko, Gutierrez, Cisse
Subs: Elliot, Anita, Yanga-Mbiwa, Bigirimana, Marveaux, Obertan, Shola Ameobi

With the influx of new signings along with a return to health of several of Newcastle's better players, this team suddenly has some useful depth to it. That's bad news for the likes of Marveaux, whose days as a super cheap 5th midfielder are probably over, but good news for players like Cabaye, Taylor or Sissoko who should all benefit from playing alongside stronger teammates. At least until Ben Arfa returns, that front five should see plenty of playing time and represent some interesting options to review in this week's fanning the flames.

Norwich
Bunn, Martin, Bassong, Turner, Garrido, Snodgrass, Tettey, Johnson, Pilkington, Hoolahan, Holt
Subs: Camp, Whittaker, Howson, Jackson, E Bennett, Becchio, Barnett

Another side that is settled in the key spots and thus there is little to talk about here (look at the lack of depth on this bench). It was encouraging to see this useful defensive unit bounce back after the heavy defeat against Liverpool and so Martin and Bunn continue to offer budget value to their owners.

QPR
Julio Cesar, Da Silva, Samba, Hill, Traore, Wright-Phillips, Mbia, Derry, Townsend, Taarabt, Mackie
Subs: Green, Park, Granero, Jenas, Ben Haim, Zamora, Bothroyd

A couple of the new signings in came in and QPR's excellent defensive "form" continued. I've put 'form' in quotation marks there as there is some real doubt as to the sustainability of their excellent results, given the fact they've still surrendered the second most shots inside the box (52) over the last five gameweeks. In fairness, they've faced three very good opponents in that run so in a vacuum there wouldn't be too much to note, I just feel it's worth drawing attention to the fact that you're likely still buying a low end defense here, rather than one who can sustainably turn out clean sheets every other week. Personnel wise, Fabio looks like the pick along this back line given his price tag (4.2) while on the attacking side of the pitch, the much fancied Remy missed out with a groin injury, leaving a somewhat uninspiring bunch to pick through.

Reading
Federici, Kelly, Pearce, Mariappa, Harte, Kebe, Leigertwood, McAnuff, McCleary, Pogrebnyak, Akpan
Subs: S Taylor, Shorey, Karacan, Le Fondre, Morrison, Guthrie, Blackman

After notching three assists in two bench appearances, the wonderfully name Hope Akpan got the start and while I haven't yet seen the game, his zero shots and one created chance don't have me scrambling to make any moves. Le Fondre, with five goals in the last 72 minutes was once again left on the bench and so despite his bench heroics, he isn't a viable fantasy option right now (it's amazing to say that about a player with 10 goals and good stats who costs less than 5.0m).

Southampton
Boruc, Clyne, Yoshida, Hooiveld, Shaw, Schneiderlin, Cork, Puncheon, Ramirez, Rodriguez, Lambert
Subs: K Davis, S Davis, Fox, Ward-Prowse, Lee, Lallana, Richardson

Another very settled lineup here with the only complication being the welcome return of Lallana to the bench here. We would expect him to slide in for Rodriguez over the long term, but I'd want to see that for a least a couple of weeks before making a move (at 5.6m though, he could well be someone to look at later).

Stoke
Begovic, Shotton, Shawcross, Huth, Wilkinson, Walters, Cameron, Nzonzi, Whelan, Etherington, Crouch
Subs: Sorensen, Jones, Owen, Adam, Whitehead, Kightly, Jerome

It appears that Crouch is now firmly entrenched back in this starting lineup, which is really a shame given Jones' superior stats and price tag, but alas, the big man is back. Crouch isn't without his own appeal, but at 6.0m he's in competition with the likes of Benteke and Lambert who look too strong for the lanky front man to compete with. Wilkinson remains the pick at the back here.

Sunderland
Mignolet, N'Diaye, Bramble, O'Shea, Colback, Larsson, Gardner, Vaughan, Johnson, Fletcher, Sessegnon
Subs: Westwood, Bardsley, Rose, Graham, Wickham, Mangane, McClean

With Sunderland deploying two midfielders at the back, our options here are somewhat limited and Bramble (4.3m) looks like the only option worth investing in. Having noted this a few weeks back, I saw some comments on other sites critiquing his play and I was surprised that serious fantasy managers players still think like that. I would gladly buy a traffic cone as a defender if it came at a discount to its teammates, as we all know that the majority of defenders' value is tied up in their team's fortunes (excluding a few choice examples).

Swansea
Tremmel, Rangel, Chico, Williams, Davies, de Guzman, Britton, Ki, Hernandez, Michu, Routledge
Subs: Cornell, Dyer, Lamah, Monk, Shechter, Moore, Tiendalli

Swansea are another predictable team who offer several options all through the lineup. I'm hoping some of you got off the Michu bandwagon over this past eight or nine game dry spell, especially given that his stats are also down (rather than just being unlucky with end product). He's still a useful pickup in that price range, but I'd encourage you to at least consider his value to you (after the double gameweek of course). The home fixture with QPR makes it tempting to double up on Swansea options, but with the other fixture at Anfield, I wouldn't go crazy and would classify this one as the kind of gameweek you want to start your Swansea options but wouldn't necessarily go out of your way to bring them in (considering they are then off in GW27).

Tottenham
Lloris, Walker, Dawson, Vertonghen, Assou-Ekotto, Lennon, Dembele, Parker, Bale, Dempsey, Defoe
Subs: Friedel, Huddlestone, Gallas, Naughton, Sigurdsson, Holtby, Livermore

Assou-Ekotto returned here as expected and is worth a thought for Verntonghen owners who want to save a bit of cash. I'd still personally opt for Dawson, though would concede that he still carries an element of risk of rotation with Gallas and Caulker lurking. Going forward, Holtby comes with a solid reputation from Germany and looked useful in his cameo this week. Villas Boas has already made the comparison to van der Vaart, suggesting he could well get some time operating off of Defoe in the coming weeks. At 7.5m he would be an interesting pickup if that plays out, though with Dempsey and Sigurdsson equally capable I'm far from ready to roll that dice just yet. Though far from a differentiator, with 18% ownership, I like Bale as someone who might you gain ground on some people and his nine (9!) shots this week highlight his almost unmatched upside.

West Brom
Foster, Reid, Olsson, McAuley, Popov, Dorrans, Yacob, Morrison, Brunt, Long, Lukaku
Subs: Myhill, Ridgewell, Rosenberg, Thomas, Jones, Tamas, Fortune

We had a genuinely interesting development this week, with Clarke showing a willingness to play both Lukaku and Long, rather than sticking with his one up front preference. Lukaku took a step back in a similar vein to Adebayor at Spurs when he was deployed alongside Defoe , making something of a 4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1 hybrid. The experiment didn't last long thanks to Popov's dismissal (which forced Lukaku off) but so long as that holds up, we would be free to buy into this talented pair without fear of constant rotation.

West Ham
Jaaskelainen, O'Brien, Tomkins, Reid, Taylor, Noble, Diame, Vaz Te, Nolan, Jarvis, Carroll
Subs: Spiegel, C Cole, Collison, Pogatetz, J Cole, Chamakh, O'Neil

Carroll made a scoring return, though I'm still not persuaded we can buy in there given his price tag (based on being supported by Suarez and Gerrard rather than Vaz Te and Noble). This midfield looks somewhat crowded and it's really hard to see beyond Nolan in this unit.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Scharner, Caldwell, Figueroa, Stam, McCarthy, McArthur, Beausejour, Espinoza, Di Santo, Maloney
Subs: Robles, Jones, Henriquez, Gomez, McManaman, Golobart, Campabadal

I wondered if Henriquez (quite well rate by all accounts) might get some minutes here but that doesn't appear to be likely before Kone returns so we're backing to three options here with Maloney and to an extent Di Santo still looking okay.

Gameweek 25 Preview

2013-02-01T04:41:00.000Z

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