All things 787

May 787 Delivery Predictions

2013-05-17T21:21:00.000-04:00

Here is a list of 787s that I expect to be delivered during the remainder of this month. Please note that the deliveries to the Chinese carriers are contingent upon the aircraft obtaining its airworthiness certificate from Chinese civil aviation authorities but booth China Southern and Hainan have said they expect their deliveries later this month.

Air India - ZA241 (LN 72, VT-ANM) - so far had 5 test flights and may have one more before being delivered

Hainan - 2 787 from Charleston - ZA431 (LN 76, B-2722) & ZA433 (LN 81, B-2723) pending certification and customer test flights

China Southern - ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725) pending certification and customer test flights

JAL - ZA184 (LN 89, JA830A) had three test flights thus far, may have one more to do

Thomson Airways - ZA317 (LN 92, G-TUIA) - Thomson's first 787 has had 5 test flights thus far.

These six together with the two already delivered would allow Boeing to claim 8 deliveries in May which would be a very healthy re-start to deliveries after three and a half months of growing inventory at Everett and Charleston.

Boeing to start 787-9 final assembly on May 30

2013-05-14T17:01:00.001-04:00

Source revealed that Boeing will load ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) on May 30th. This should lead to the rollout of the aircraft approximately 2 months later in late August. First flight is anticipated later this fall though timing is still uncertain.

Boeing has taken delivery of ZB001's horizontal and vertical tail plane as well as the wings. In the coming two weeks we should see the delivery of the fuselage sections into Everett.

Boeing is shifting production of 787-8s to the main 40-26 and 88-03 assembly lines in Everett in case issues with the assembly of the first 787-9 encounters problems in 40-24. Already Charleston is taking on more 787-8 but the bulk of the 787-8 production will go to the main final assembly in Everett.

The other two 787-9 test airplanes will follow ZB001 in the 40-24 surge line.

Meanwhile Boeing has resumed deliveries of the 787-8. ZA513 (LN83, JA818A) was delivered to ANA marking the airlines 18th 787 and Boeing's 51st 787 delivered.

LOT Polish Airlines was to have taken its 3rd 787 (ZA272, LN 86, SP-LRC) today but that is being delayed due to some minor issues with the aircraft. Delivery is now expected to take place around Thursday.

Upcoming 787 deliveries

2013-05-12T19:57:00.001-04:00

Now that the battery modifications are underway Boeing is gearing up to re-start deliveries to customers.

First up will be deliveries to ANA and LOT Polish Airlines. ANA (ZA512, LN 83, JA818A) should deliver tomorrow 5/13/2013 (flyaway the next day) while LOT Polish (ZA272, LN 86, SP-LRC) should deliver the following day on 5/14/2013 (flyaway the next day).

Thomson Airways is expecting their first 787 (ZA317, LN 92, G-TUIA) on 5/30/2013 with the second (ZA318, LN 94, G-TUIB) to follow on 6/2/2013.

JAL can also take delivery this week of ZA184 (LN 89, JA830J) though I haven't heard about a delivery date.

Hainan and China Southern could take their first 787s as early as the end of this month but that could easily slip into June since the delivery is waiting on Chinese aviation authorities certifying the 787 for use by Chinese carriers.

British Airways is looking to take delivery within the next few weeks but it does look like that they'll pick up their first 787s next month.

Air India 787 to perform at Paris Air Show

2013-05-11T18:35:00.001-04:00

This is plain speculation on my part but Boeing may be prepping ZA242 (LN 90, VT-ANN) for Air India to put on a flying display at this years Paris Air Show in mid June. The aircraft flew to Boeing Field last week then flew a flight on Friday at BOE787. I believe that this flight was practice flight for an aerial demonstration at the show. Given the flight number it flew under is normally reserved for special marketing flights or for air show flights, I feel that this is strong evidence that this aircraft will by at the Paris Air Show. If so this aircraft probably won't be delivered to Air India until mid to late June.

Transaero Airlines to get early build 787s

2013-05-03T23:35:00.001-04:00

I got word that Boeing has officially allocated 3 very early build 787s to Transaero Airlines. The three frames are ZA800 (LN 11), ZA801 (LN 12), and ZA803 (LN 14). All three were previously going to be delivered to ANA but has since asked for later built 787s. Boeing still has about 7 more that need to be re-allocated to other airlines. These are among the group of 787s that are known as the "terrible teens." It has been rumored that Transaero would pick up these aircraft from Boeing on the cheap when they closed on the order of 4 787s early last year. It's also rumored that Lion Air will be picking up their 5 aircraft from this block as well but that change has yet to be reflected in the system.

Production flight testing has picked up today with ZA318 (LN 94, G-TUIB) for Thomson making its first flight today. ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) made it 12th flight and this aircraft should be delivered to ANA late next week though it still has to go through customer acceptance flight(s). Two Charleston built 787s for Hainan swapped places today as ZA431 (LN 76, B-2722) flew back to Charleston and ZA433 (LN 81, B-2723) flew to Ft. Worth for painting from Charleston.

Boeing BoD aproves ATO for 777X

2013-05-01T22:49:00.002-04:00

Boeing Board of Director gave BCA the ok to enter into discussion with customers on the pricing, delivery, and technical aspects of the 777X a third generation of the large Boeing twin. With this ATO, Boeing now has 2 large twins with the Authority to Offer to customer airlines but Boeing still needs to formally launch the aircraft once they have acceptable deals in place for each.

One question that still remains is where to build the 777X and especially the wings which Boeing plans to construct from composites (CFRP). More than likely I expect that both the aircraft and the wing would be built in Everett due to the expense of establishing a new final assembly site along the difficulty of transporting a large wing from site to site.

I do think that it is not unreasonable to think that both the 787-10 and the 777X can be formally launched at the Paris Air Show though it can also happen at the Dubai Air Show in November.

787 production testing accelerating

2013-04-30T22:14:00.001-04:00

In the last 8 days Boeing has sent 6 787s into the air for each aircraft's first flight since the grounding ended. This included two 787s that were flown on their B-1 flights today, April 30th. Boeing had indicated that they would aggressively conduct production testing in order to get caught up on deliveries. Though Boeing hasn't delivered a Dreamliner since the grounding ended, they have said that deliveries would re-start in early May. It may re-start by the end of this week though I do expect that ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) should be delivered sometime next week after customer test flights are conducted by ANA pilots.

I expect that in the next 8 weeks, Boeing should be able to deliver 787s to Air India, JAL, ANA, Qatar Airways, ILFC (for Norwegian), LOT Polish Airlines, Hainan, Thomson Airways, and China Southern. Thus far, 787s for Hainan, Air India, ANA, Thomson, LOT Polish, and JAL have entered production test flights with the revised lithium ion battery set up and there is a pattern.

Boeing is conducting test flights roughly in order that each aircraft emerged from final assembly. There have been exceptions most notably a Hainan airframe which does not have any engines and a couple for LOT which are expected to be delivered later in the year. If the current pattern holds then I expect that from Everett the following will be making their first flights in this order:

ZA383 - China Southern
ZA318 - TUI
ZA319 - TUI
ZA513 - ANA
ZA185 - JAL
ZA465 - Qatar

From Charleston these aircraft will be making their first flights in this order:

ZA434 - Hainan
ZA243 - Air India
ZA384 - China Southern
ZA385 - China Southern

I estimate that Boeing can deliver between 12 to 14 787s by the end of the second quarter including a few to Chinese carriers who are expecting that the 787 will be finally given its airworthiness certificate by Chinese authorities next month.

Prior to the grounding it took Boeing about 6 weeks after rolling out a 787 to the flightline to conduct all the necessary company and customer tests, finalize paperwork and make final delivery. I see no reason why that would change now, though some aircraft that have already had quite a few test flights done prior to the grounding won't take that long since much of the flight testing is already completed.

Flight testing will continue to pick up pretty aggressively over the next few weeks as Boeing needs to work down the inventory of 37 787s that have built up over the last few weeks.

More progress on the 787 return to flight

2013-04-26T23:16:00.000-04:00

As the 8 airlines get closer to resuming their 787 service I've updated the list below since new information has been coming out:

ANA - early June (after completing test flights and pilot training)
Air India - around mid May
Ethiopian - April 27
JAL - early June (after completing test flights and pilot training)
LAN - unknown
LOT Polish Airlines - June 5
Qatar Airways - end of April
United Airlines - May 31st but may be able to restart earlier

Today the amended Airworthiness Directive was posted in the Federal Register thus making the FAA's certification of the battery fix official. Any US registered 787 can now fly with the battery fix. Already Japan and Europe has followed the FAA's lead on this as has approved of Boeing's fix though I also expect that India, Ethiopia, Chile and Qatar will all follow suit fairly quickly. The first set of 787s should be completed by now. LOT Polish Airlines is (or already has) ferrying its 787 stranded in Chicago to Addis Ababa where a Boeing team is there to install the battery fix on the 4 aircraft belonging to Ethiopian. Word is that LOT's second aircraft, which is currently in Warsaw, will also be flown to Ethiopia for the fix. Qatar 787 that was stranded at London Heathrow was ferried back to Doha for the fix and one United jet at LA was ferried to San Antonio, Tx. for the repairs.

Given Japan's approval of Boeing's fix, ANA announced that starting this Sunday, May 28th, their 787s will fly about 230 test flights in order to re-train their team of 787 pilots as well as reassure their passengers that the airplane is safe to fly one. They plan on resuming regular passenger service in June. ANA is also looking to see a resumption of 787 deliveries with ZA512 (LN 82, JA818A) being the first 787 to be delivered since the grounding in January. It can be delivered as early as late next week but ANA pilots still have to fly the customer flights on this airplane.

Outside of this one pending delivery, I can see LOT Polish, Air India, JAL and even China Southern and Hainan taking deliveries in May. In June we can see deliveries to Thomson, Qatar, JAL, ANA and ILFC being made. I do expect that Boeing will now be aggressive in their production flight test program as they need to clear the inventory sitting at Everett and Charleston.

Lastly, a reader sent me this link to a video from the BBC detailing the 787 battery fix work that is going on in Ethiopia.

Boeing gives upbeat assessment of 787 during earnings call

2013-04-24T21:44:00.000-04:00

During the 1st quarter 2013 earnings call, Boeing CEO Jim McNerney gave an upbeat assessment of the 787. Despite the lack of 787 deliveries in the past quarter Boeing's earnings managed to stay strong given increased deliveries of the 737 and 777. Now that the FAA has given approval to the lithium ion battery fix Boeing is prepared to resume deliveries around early May.

Among the information on the 787 that was passed along during the call were:

Installation has begun on 10 in service 787 and 9 production aircraft thus far.
Boeing initiated a rate break to 7 aircraft/month.
All engineering work on the 787-9 is completed. Final assembly will start by mid year (I'm expecting very late May. First flight this fall and first delivery in the first half of 2014.
787-10 interest remains very high and Boeing anticipates formal launch "soon." With delivery slots sold out Boeing may have to look at a further increase in the 787 production rate beyond 10/month and this issue is currently under evaluation. The rate must be stabilize at the 10/month before consideration of a rate increase beyond that rate.
Travelled work is close to 0 and part shortages are minimal.
Most of the battery work should be completed by mid May on the in service 787s.
The per unit cost of producing each 787 has come down 60% from LN 8 to LN 100.
Boeing is maintaining its delivery guidance of more than 60 787s this year and said that 15% to 20% will be delivered in the second quarter.

Assuming a delivery goal of 65 787s this year this would mean that Boeing is planning to deliver between 10 and 13 787s by the end of June. It is possible to get a better idea of the total deliveries for this year when the number of deliveries during the 2nd quarter is known.

Boeing starts 787 mods.

2013-04-21T22:06:00.001-04:00

Here are the locations of the grounded 787 that are in service with the 8 carriers thus far.

Today 5 (morning time in Japan), Boeing started working on 5 787s belonging to ANA. It's probably not a stretch to assume that there are modifications that are starting to be done on the other 787s around the world. It does look like that Ethiopian will be the first to return to service as they are planning to restart service around April 25th.

Here are the current locations of the 50 in service 787s around the world:

Santiago, Chile - 3 - All LAN

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - 4 - All Ethiopian

Frankfurt, Germany - 1 - ANA

Mumbai, India - 6 - All Air India

Haneda, Japan - 11 - 10 ANA, 1 JAL

Kumamoto, Japan - 1 - ANA

Matsuyama, Japan - 1 - ANA

Narita, Japan - 8 - 1 UAL, 5 JAL, 2 ANA

Okayama, Japan - 1 - ANA

Takamatsu, Japan - 1 - ANA

Warsaw, Poland - 1 - LOT Polish Airlines

Doha, Qatar - 4 - All Qatar Airways

London, UK - 1 - Qatar Airways

Boston, USA - 1 - JAL

Chicago, USA - 1 - LOT Polish Airlines

Houston, USA - 4 - All UAL

Los Angeles, USA - 1 - UAL

Here's the list of carriers that have the 787 and when they will be returning to service (approximately):

ANA - early June (after completing test flights and pilot training)
Air India - around mid May
Ethiopian - April 25
JAL - early June (after completing test flights and pilot training)
LAN - unknown
LOT Polish Airlines - October but will probably restart earlier
Qatar Airways - end of April
United Airlines - May 31st but may be able to restart earlier

FAA give it's blessing to Boeing's 787 fix

2013-04-19T23:32:00.001-04:00

The FAA, as expected, approved Boeing's plan to retrofit the 787s with new batteries and a new containment system to eliminate the risk of fire and electrolyte spills in the two E/E bays. Very importantly the 787 doesn't loss its ETOPs 180 certification meaning they can fly as much as 3 hours from a divert airport. I do believe that Boeing will still pursue the ETOPS 330 certification but the FAA will make them jump through hoops for that which they will do. While the AOG (aircraft on Ground) teams from Boeing are in position, Boeing still needs to ship the kits to the locations where each aircraft is while GS Yuasa will be shipping out the new batteries to those same locations as well.

Now that the FAA has given approval the next step is for Boeing's AOG teams along with airline maintenance personnel to start preliminary work on the aircraft until they get the first kits and replacement batteries. They will in stall them at which point it's up to the each country's aviation regulators to sign off on the modification and lift the grounding on the 787 based in that country. The FAA says they will send out instructions to the operators detailing the fix and then publish the final airworthiness directive in the Federal Register making the approval official. It is after that that any US-based airlines with the 787 whose aircraft has been modified under the directive will be allowed to resume revenue service of the 787. This would apply to United Airlines as it is currently the only US operator of the aircraft but typically foreign aviation regulators follow suit. One exception though maybe Japan's JCAB. They may require more stringent oversight of the lithium ion batteries including more frequent visual inspections and more detailed monitoring of the voltage in each battery.

The timeline to get these airplanes flying again doesn't end with the regulators tamp of approval for each of the airlines. The carriers must engage in flight training as well as scheduling the resumption of service and, of course, sell tickets for those flights. Some carriers may re-substitute the 787 in place of the aircraft type currently flying certain routes while other will re-start routes like the Tokyo-Boston route serviced by JAL when the fire broke out at Logan. Routes that were temporarily suspended will likely take longer to get back on line but I see that happening by June. Still I do believe that Boeing will be able to complete work on all 50 aircraft in about 6 weeks. Each AG team has about 30 members (this jives with what I reported in an earlier post with a team in Ethiopia). There are 10 teams that are deployed though for certain there must be several teams in Japan as well as one in Qatar and Ethiopia. The 787s that have to be modified are in 9 different countries including the United states so it would be reasonable to assume that there are 2 teams in Japan as there are 23 787s on the ground in that country that need the modification. I anticipate that one team each will be sent to Chile, Germany, the UK, Qatar, India, Ethiopia, Poland, and one will be in the US.

So when can flights resume? Well Ethiopian has been vocal about resuming flights next week which is possible just as long as the fix is in place and that the Ethiopian aviation regulators sign off. Qatar Airways is also eyeing restarting revenue flights by the end of April. I don't expect JAL and ANA to start flying until mid May at the earliest. United is currently evaluating when they can restart their service.

Deliveries are also the minds of 787 watchers. Boeing is concurrently modifying the 787s at Everett and Charleston. So far as I know there are three airplanes that have the battery fix:

ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) for Polish LOT
ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) for ANA
ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725) for China Southern

The later was supposed to make its first flight today but it didn't come to pass and may fly tomorrow. One thing Boeing made clear is that they do intend to still deliver 60+ 787s this year per their guidance but they also said that production flight testing will have to be aggressively ramped up. I still believe that Boeing will have to deliver on average of 8 787s per month in order to meet heir guidance. They have to clear the current ready to deliver backlog of 34 aircraft (doesn't include any 787s that will be added to this pile in the next few months) thus they would probably clear this backlog over the next 5 to 6 months. What is uncertain is which aircraft (other than the aforementioned three aircraft) will be delivered first. We do know that 31 787s between Everett and Charleston will need to be modified first but I don't know which one have already been modified or of the order in which they'll be modified. We'll only know when these airplanes take to the sly for their first flight.

When everything is all said and done, it does look like that Boeing's gamble to keep up with the current full rate production of 5/month will pay off...just as long as they can deliver the backlog sitting in Washington and South Carolina.

Here's the FAA Press Release announcing the approval:

FAA Approves Boeing 787 Battery System Design Changes

For Immediate Release
April 19, 2013
Contact: Laura Brown
Phone: (202) 267-3883

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) today took the next step in returning the Boeing 787 to flight by approving Boeing's design for modifications to the 787 battery system. The changes are designed to address risks at the battery cell level, the battery level and the aircraft level.
Next week, the FAA will issue instructions to operators for making changes to the aircraft and will publish in the Federal Register the final directive that will allow the 787 to return to service with the battery system modifications. The directive will take effect upon publication. The FAA will require airlines that operate the 787 to install containment and venting systems for the main and auxiliary system batteries, and to replace the batteries and their chargers with modified components.
“Safety of the traveling public is our number one priority. These changes to the 787 battery will ensure the safety of the aircraft and its passengers,” said Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.
“A team of FAA certification specialists observed rigorous tests we required Boeing to perform and devoted weeks to reviewing detailed analysis of the design changes to reach this decision,” said FAA Administrator Michael Huerta.
To assure proper installation of the new design, the FAA will closely monitor modifications of the aircraft in the U.S. fleet. The FAA will stage teams of inspectors at the modification locations. Any return to service of the modified 787 will only take place after the FAA accepts the work.
As the certifying authority, the FAA will continue to support other authorities around the world as they finalize their own acceptance procedures.

Next here is Boeing's Press Release:

Boeing to Begin Modifying 787s as FAA Approves Battery Improvements

- Modifications to existing fleets to begin; deliveries to resume soon

- Boeing to provide customers support for return to service

EVERETT, Wash., April 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's approval of battery system improvements for the 787 Dreamliner by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) clears the way for Boeing (NYSE: BA) and its customers to install the approved modifications and will lead to a return to service and resumption of new production deliveries.
"FAA approval clears the way for us and the airlines to begin the process of returning the 787 to flight with continued confidence in the safety and reliability of this game-changing new airplane," said Boeing Chairman, President and CEO Jim McNerney. "The promise of the 787 and the benefits it provides to airlines and their passengers remain fully intact as we take this important step forward with our customers and program partners."
The FAA's action will permit the return to service of 787s in the United States upon installation of the improvements. For 787s based and modified outside the United States, local regulatory authorities provide the final approval on return to service.
Approval of the improved 787 battery system was granted by the FAA after the agency conducted an extensive review of certification tests. The tests were designed to validate that individual components of the battery, as well as its integration with the charging system and a new enclosure, all performed as expected during normal operation and under failure conditions. Testing was conducted under the supervision of the FAA over a month-long period beginning in early March.
"The FAA set a high bar for our team and our solution," said McNerney. "We appreciate the diligence, expertise and professionalism of the FAA's technical team and the leadership of FAA Administrator Michael Huerta and Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood throughout this process. Our shared commitment with global regulators and our customers to safe, efficient and reliable airplanes has helped make air travel the safest form of transportation in the world today."
Boeing, in collaboration with its supplier partners and in support of the investigations of the National Transportation Safety Board and the Japan Transport Safety Board, conducted extensive engineering analysis and testing to develop a thorough understanding of the factors that could have caused the 787's batteries to fail and overheat in two incidents last January. The team spent more than 100,000 hours developing test plans, building test rigs, conducting tests and analyzing the results to ensure the proposed solutions met all requirements.
"Our team has worked tirelessly to develop a comprehensive solution that fully satisfies the FAA and its global counterparts, our customers and our own high standards for safety and reliability," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Ray Conner. "Through the skill and dedication of the Boeing team and our partners, we achieved that objective and made a great airplane even better."
Boeing also engaged a team of more than a dozen battery experts from across multiple industries, government, academia and consumer safety to review and validate the company's assumptions, findings, proposed solution and test plan.
The improved battery system includes design changes to both prevent and isolate a fault should it occur. In addition, improved production, operating and testing processes have been implemented. The new steel enclosure system is designed to keep any level of battery overheating from affecting the airplane or even being noticed by passengers.
"This is a comprehensive and permanent solution with multiple layers of protection," said Conner. "The ultimate layer of protection is the new enclosure, which will ensure that even if a battery fails, there is no impact to the airplane and no possibility of fire. We have the right solution in hand, and we are ready to go.
"We are all very grateful to our customers for their patience during the past several months," said Conner. "We know it hasn't been easy on them to have their 787s out of service and their deliveries delayed. We look forward to helping them get back into service as quickly as possible."
Boeing has deployed teams to locations around the world to begin installing improved battery systems on 787s. Kits with the parts needed for the new battery systems are staged for shipment and new batteries also will be shipped immediately. Teams have been assigned to customer locations to install the new systems. Airplanes will be modified in approximately the order they were delivered.
"The Boeing team is ready to help get our customers' 787s back in the air where they belong," said Conner.
Boeing will also begin installing the changes on new airplanes at the company's two 787 final-assembly plants, with deliveries expected to resume in the weeks ahead. Despite the disruption in deliveries that began in January, Boeing expects to complete all planned 2013 deliveries by the end of the year. Boeing further expects that the 787 battery issue will have no significant impact to its 2013 financial guidance.

Wall Street Journal: 787 battery re-certification approval to come Friday, April 19

2013-04-18T21:47:00.000-04:00

In an article released this evening, the Wall Street Journal says the FAA will certify the redesign battery and battery containment system as safe for commercial use by tomorrow, April 19th. This will allow Boeing to immediately begin work on retrofitting the 50 787s around the world with the new design and allow the airlines to resume regular passenger service as early as the end of this month. Anticipate that it will take Boeing about 6 weeks to retrofit all 50 airplanes while teams of technicians will do the same to 787s at Everett and Charleston.

Boeing resumed regular production testing today and I expect a slew of 787s to take to the skies on their B-1 flights starting as early as tomorrow. Boeing has 34 787 in Charleston and Everett awaiting production flight tests and delivery. Deliveries can resume, I believe as early as the last week of April though May is a better bet. Boeing will need to deliver about 8 787s a month to clear the backlog that has built up over the last three months. This is doable but will be a challenge.

BREAKING: Boeing confirms resuming 787 production test flights

2013-04-18T18:57:00.002-04:00

Boeing confirmed to me that they are resuming standard Boeing production flight testing under the approval of the FAA. The production flights will be normal Boeing flights meant to validate the aircraft's systems. There are no restrictions that the FAA has placed on these aircraft. All airplanes that are to be production tested will have the new batteries and the containment system installed. ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) for ANA was the first aircraft to fly today and fly with the new battery and containment system on a functional check flight.

We should see more and more 787s parked in Everett and Charleston to start conducting their standard B-1, B-2 and C-1, C-2 flights but these airplanes won't be delivered until the FAA has certified the batteries and the containment system for commercial use.

Source: Boeing anticipating FAA to recertify 787 around April 24th

2013-04-17T22:16:00.000-04:00

A source in Ethiopia revealed that a team of 30 Boeing engineers, technicians and PR specialists landed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to prepare the 787s owned by Ethiopian for return to flight. The Boeing team is doing some prep work on the aircraft prior to the FAA decision which, according to the source, is believed by Boeing will be handed down around April 24th.

The Boeing team includes Rob Faye, worldwide sales director and Dennis Lucas, a Boeing technical director. It is believed though not confirmed that Randy Tinseth along with Adam Morgan and executive with Boeing's International Communications will also be there but are still awaiting the FAA's decision.

The team will work on one aircraft at a time and should have Ethiopian's 4 787s ready to fly in about 3 to 4 weeks after the FAA approves the change.

Of course this date is not a firm date but a date that Boeing believes the FAA will announce its decision.

FAA says 787 decision to some "soon" and are re-examing ETOPS certification

2013-04-17T10:02:00.002-04:00

FAA chief Mike Huerta, testified yesterday that the FA has all the documentation that Boeing has submitted to re-certify the 787 lithium ion batteries and that a decision will come soon but they won't be rushed into a decision. He said that the FAA will approve it when "we are satisfied Boeing has shown the redesigned battery system meets FAA requirements." Boeing is ready to go and start implementing the modifications once the FAA has signed off which may come as early as this week. Several carriers (Qatar Airways and Ethiopian) have said that they plan to resume 787 revenue service as early as this month. ANA and JAL are expecting a return to service next month and United expects to be flying again late in May. No word on when LOT Polish, LAN, or Air India will return to service though expect that by mid June they will all be flying the 787 again.

On fly in the ointment is the FAA's review of the 787's ETOPS 180 certification. This is being done independent of the battery certification. I'm not sure what the basis of the ETOPs review (other than the battery issue) is on. If the basis of the review is solely on the battery issue, then I do expect that the FAA should re-affirm the ETOPS 180 certification as the battery containment system will add a level of safety to the airplane in the event of a thermal runaway in the battery such that it won't bring down the aircraft and should allow the aircraft enough time to divert to an airport.

It also seems to me that if Boeing wants to certify the 787 for ETOPs 330 they will need to run new certification flights for that purpose using the battery and the new containment system in different failure modes. Given that the 787-9 launch customer, Air New Zealand, requires ETOPs 330 when they take delivery, I expect that these tests will take place by the end of the year or very early in the 1st quarter of 2014.

Is there a chance that the FAA can restrict the 787s ability to fly ETOPS (either partially or fully)? Absolutely. Will they do it is another question but I am sure Boeing is in communication with them on this issue as well as ETOPs 330.

I still do expect that Boeing will resume deliveries by middle to late May if the approval is given soon (this week) but there probably are political considerations for the FAA before the approval is given. We'll see. Scott Hamilton expects approval after the NTSB hearings on the 787 battery certification that is to take place on April 23-24.

787 battery re-certification looks to be getting closer

2013-04-15T21:59:00.002-04:00

It appears that the FAA's re-certification of the lithium ion batteries is getting closer. First, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said today that the approval will happen "soon" though the FAA isn't going to be rushed in its analysis of Boeing's data.

Another piece of news that indicates the decision is right over the horizon is an article from a local Ethiopian news website saying that Ethiopian's 787s will be the first airlines to return to service though I do suspect that this is more hopeful thinking as Boeing will focus on getting ANA's fleet back up in the air first. The article doesn't say when Ethiopian will resume flying though and it is up to each individual carrier when they will resume revenue service once their 787s are modified.

Nevertheless, it does give more of an indication of the trend in the belief that this grounding will very soon be over.

787 customers eyeing return to service; Qatar expecting to resume flying by end of April

2013-04-10T21:48:00.001-04:00

Qatar Airways' chief, Akbar Al Baker, is not one to shy away from the media or make over exaggerated announcements but at the inauguration of Qatar's service between Doha and Chicago, he stated that Qatar fleet of 787s will be back in service well before May 31st which is when United plans to resume 787 operations. Jon Ostrower of the Wall Street Journal tweeted that Qatar is planning to have the 4 of 5 787s returned to service by the end of April. Whether this is realistic or not is another question. Jon later tweeted Boeing is responding to the FAA request for additional information though it is unknown what they had requested. It has been widely anticipated that the FAA would have additional questions. Given that the month of April is 1/3 over it does seem far fetched that the FAA will issue their decision so that Qatar would have 4 787s ready by the end of the month. I don't see the FAA decision coming down before April 15th at the earliest. However It is entirely possible for Qatar to have their 787s back in the air by mid May. Again this is all dependent on when the FAA will issue their decision. It should be noted that several 787 operators are planning to resume operations within the next month and a half including ANA.

On the production front Boeing is still producing airplanes at about 5 per month though in the next month and a half the Charleston line will be increasing their rate to 2/month. I believe that the Everett line will increase to 5/month during this same period. Boeing's guidance was an increase in rate from 5 to 7 around mid 2013. This would mean the rate break would occur around early June. The rate increase makes it more imperative that Boeing gets the FAA approval for he battery fix. As of today there are 31 787s (25 in Everett and 6 in Charleston) that ready for pre-flight or to continue the post production tests that had started prior to the grounding. If the rate break is to occur in early June, Boeing will have to resume deliveries around the same time and deliver at a rate of 2 to 2.5 airplanes per week in order to clear the inventory of production aircraft sitting at both facilities over the 30 weeks starting in early June. This is an attainable delivery rate if Boeing can resume production ground and flight tests by the first week of May.

787 Return to Service now in the hands of the FAA

2013-04-07T19:57:00.000-04:00

On Friday April 5th Boeing conducted the one and only certification test flight on ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) for their proposed fix to the lithium ion battery issues that have bought worldwide 787 to a halt. Boeing had already conducted the ground test of the battery containment system on ZA005 (LN 5, N787FT). In that test the battery was intentionally short circuited to allow a thermal runway to occur thus testing the ability of the new containment system to prevent smoke, flame and electrolytes from escaping thus risking the aircraft and passengers.

The test flight which lasted about 2 hours is the final items that needed by the FAA in order for order for them to certify the battery fix. In the next few days Boeing will turn over all the remaining data that is needed. The FAA and Boeing will have a continuous dialogue over the next few weeks and the FAA may even require more tests before giving its approval but the general consensus is that the FAA will give its approval to the fix and approve of Boeing's Service Bulletin & amend the emergency Airworthiness Directive it issued in mid January grounding the 787. Boeing has teams in place to start implementing the fix once the FAA (and other international aviation regulators like Japan's JCAB and Europe's EASA) have approved.

The fix will take 4 to 5 days to install on each aircraft though I think it's reasonable to assume that multiple aircraft will be worked on at the same time. Assuming that Boeing has (according to reports in the media) 8 teams ready to implement the fix along with the associated hardware at the ready, it will take Boeing about 6 weeks to return all 50 delivered 787s to service. If the approval is given by middle of April then it is reasonable to assume that the 50 787s that are grounded can resume regular revenue service by early June depending on the individual airline's readiness to do so.

So how long until deliveries begin? Boeing will have 30+ 787s ready for delivery but waiting for the battery fix to be installed. I don't have any information as to how many of these service ready 787s can be modified each week but I think it is reasonable to assume that Boeing can have up to 3 ready each week to continue the standard pre delivery ground and flight test regimen once the FAA has given its approval. I am also assuming that Boeing will start ground and flight tests from scratch given the new equipment that is being installed would also need to be tested out on each aircraft. Thus I'm assuming about 5 weeks for all pre-delivery ground and flight tests to be conducted prior to delivery. This would translate to roughly 6 weeks before Boeing resumes regular 787 deliveries. This would mean that deliveries can resume as early as the beginning of June. It still uncertain how many 787s Boeing can deliver this year until deliveries actually re-start and the rate of battery modifications are determined but at the moment they're maintaining their 787 delivery guidance at 60+. It is still possible to reach that goal but it would mean that Boeing will have to undertake an aggressive rate of production testing on the 30+ 787s that are on the lines at Everett and Charleston.

An added complication are the NTSB hearings scheduled for the second half of April concerning the lithium ion battery technology as well as the FAA's certification of the 787's battery system along with Senate hearings into the FAA approval process for the 787. While I don't expect any earth shattering news out of any of these three hearings pundits wondered aloud if these hearings will have any bearing on the timing of FAA approval, with some saying that the FAA won't give its approval until after the hearings are done. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood even said that the fix that Boeing has proposed appears to be good. Whenever the FAA gives its decision, it does appear that Boeing in on the verge of overcoming yet another issue related to the Dreamliner.

ZA272 test flight starts Boeing on the road to 787 return to flight

2013-03-25T22:13:00.002-04:00

Boeing conducted the first of 2 (expected) test flights to return the 787 to service. This afternoon's test flight was FCF (functional check flight) meant to verify the normal operation of the aircraft's systems including the problematic lithium ion batteries. The flight lasted 2 hours and 9 minutes and Boeing reported that the flight went according to plan. This was the first flight of the revamped lithium ion containment system and was performed on ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) which will be ultimately be delivered to LOT Polish Airlines.

Boeing will analyze the flight test data and expects to conduct the one and only certification test flight using the same aircraft in the next few days with FAA personnel on board to observe the test. Further, according to the Wall Street Journal, Boeing will ground test the lithium ion batteries on board ZA005 (LN 5, N787FT), which is also equipped with the new containment system, to failure in order to ensure that the containment system works as advertised. Even though Boeing has said that they will fly only one certification test flights, the FAA may require that Boeing fly more certification test flights as they deem necessary.

Boeing is still very confident of the system they have designed that they have not slowed down 787 production and anticipate resuming production flight tests in the very near future though I don't know when that will be. It would certainly take place after Boeing fixes the 50 787s already delivered before retrofitting them on the aircraft on flightline's at Charleston and Everett. It would probably take Boeing at least 2 months to return all the 50 787s to flight once FAA approval (as well as approval of the other global aviation authorities). The Japanese aviation authorities (and others) may ask Boeing to carry out further tests to satisfy their own requirements thus delaying the resumption of service of the fleet of 787s outside of the United States.

Even though Boeing doesn't discuss their testing schedules, I do expect that if there are no issues from the data of this test flight that the certification test flight should occur by Friday or Saturday at the latest.

Currently, Boeing has 27 completed 787s awaiting delivery. 21 are at Everett and 6 are in storage in Charleston. They're still adding one aircraft per week.

Boeing expects a couple of weeks to finish certification testing of 787 battery fix

2013-03-15T22:12:00.002-04:00

Boeing is expecting a pretty short testing period for their proposed battery fix though the FAA could mandate more tests. Boeing needs to conduct only one test flight with the proposed fix on ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC). ZA005 (LN 5, N787FT) will conduct ground tests of the fix. Both aircraft are in the process of being retrofitted with the battery fix. Boeing has told me that it takes about 4 to 5 days to remove the old lithium ion battery set up and install the new battery assembly for both the main and APU battery. Boeing has declined to reveal how many ground and flight test hours will be needed to finish testing though Ron Hinderberger, Boeing Vice President, 787-8 Engineering says the current plan calls for only one test flight of the upgrade system on ZA272. The total ground and flight tests should be no more than a couple of weeks though the FAA can mandate additional testing. It is the FAA who will the final say in this matter. Boeing is pretty confident of the fix because of the testing and work performed in their integrated systems labs but many of these test will have to be re-performed under the oversight of the FAA. Boeing said that about 1/3 of the required FAA testing is already completed.

Once the FAA has given it's sign off then Boeing will act aggressively to get the fix installed on the 50 787s that currently in customer hands. I would expect that there will be multiple Boeing teams at different locations working concurrently to do the retrofit which, as mentioned earlier, will take 4 to 5 days per airplane.

Much has been made that the root cause of the battery incidents has not been discovered and that Boeing and the FAA are rushing this. However, there is precedent for this type of actions since the evidence pointing to the root cause was probably destroyed. When TWA Flight 800 exploded of Long Island's South Shore there were many theories that abounded but the NTSB pinned the blame on fuel vapors in the center wing fuel tank that were ignited by a spark. There was no direct evidence of that but the result of their findings was that the FAA required some sort of fuel inerting systems to be retrofitted and that new aircraft designs have a an inerting system designed into the center wing fuel tank. All this on an aircraft accident that did not have a root cause. Here Boeing is taking action that would address any potential failures in the battery and severely mitigate the risk f a fire from ever happening by siphoning off any oxygen surrounding the battery.

Thus with its reputation out on the line, Boeing Commercial Airplane Head, Ray Conner and Chief Engineer, Mike Sinnett explained, in detail, Boeing's proposed solution and why they have confidence in it. The briefing in Tokyo was very technical in nature and very through. Here Boeing revealed that they expect that they can be done testing and start implementation of the fix in weeks and not in months. They qualified those remarks by stating that the FAA has the final say in lifting the airworthiness directive that lead to the grounding. One bit of news that is interesting is that Boeing will not lose the 180 ETOPS certification once the FAA has signed off on the fix. They still intend to achieve ETOPS 330 for the 787 though it is uncertain if the FAA will add any more tests for that certification because of the battery issues.

Boeing is rumored to already be producing parts for the retrofit on the 50 aircraft that are in customer hands as well as the 25 siting at Charleston and Everett as well as the aircraft that are in various stages of production. If Boeing can meet the schedule it has laid out to the FAA and get the testing done in weeks, I would expect the FA to take it's time in analyzing the data and perhaps ordering further tests. The 50 787s may not resume passenger flights for another 4 to 6 weeks (that includes the retrofit time). Deliveries probably will resume around the end of May but it ll depends on the FAA and how stringent they plan on being.

FAA approves Boeing's 787 recovery plan

2013-03-12T22:04:00.001-04:00

Today the FAA announced that they approved of Boeing's re-certification plan for the lithium ion batteries made by GS Yuasa of Japan. The FAA will be looking over Boeing's shoulder every step of the way. This is obviously in reaction to the criticism that the agency received in light of the certification of the 787 and the lithium ion batteries in particular.

Boeing will be using two airframes to conduct the tests: ZA005 (LN 5, N787FT) and ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) a 787 that is destined for LOT Polish Airlines. I do expect that test flights should start by Thursday, Friday at the absolute latest. Boeing has approval to conduct the flights on only two 787s and they may need to conduct more test flights if the FAA says they need more data.

There is no word on how long the re-certification program will take but it will encompass both ground and flight tests. Boeing gave a very detailed plan and the FAA has given their feedback in terms of the parameters and tests that have to be met in order for the the lifting of the airworthiness directive.

To be sure this plan will probably take some time to complete to the FAA's satisfaction and because of all the negative publicity surrounding the battery and the FAA's oversight I wouldn't be surprised if the testing and reviews takes up to two months before the airworthiness directive is lifted.
Additionally, when the NTSB came out with their preliminary results of the fire investigation on the JAL 787 in Boston, they announced that they will have two hearings in April, one covering the use of lithium ion batteries and one covering the design and certification of the 78 battery system. You can be sure that both Boeing and the FAA will get a lot of heat at both these hearings and will certainly increase the pressure on both organizations. You can access the JAL 787 docket here.

So what does this mean for the resumption of flights and deliveries. Assuming that the FAA is happy with the testing and the results, I can see revenue flights starting again in about 2 months time. That would be around the middle of May. Boeing has already been producing the necessary kits for the battery modifications though I'm not sure how long it wold take to modify the aircraft. The modifications does involve cutting a vent hole in the CRFP skin of the aircraft. Additionally Boeing will have to modify the 25 (and counting) 787s at Everett and Charleston as well retrofit those that are further back in the production backlog. Once the undelivered aircraft have been retrofitted they can resume the standard ground and flight test regime that Boeing and customers put each airframe through before the aircraft is formally handed over. I can see deliveries resuming around the middle of June though I cannot venture a guess as to how many they will be able to deliver. Boeing will have its work cut out for it if they are to deliver more than 60 787s this year. They would need to deliver 10/month in order to accomplish that. It's doable but will require a lot of resources to decrease the built up inventory being stored.

Here's Boeing's statement from this afternoon:

News Release Issued: March 12, 2013 5:00 PM EDT

Boeing Receives FAA Approval of Certification Plan for 787 Battery Solution

EVERETT, Wash., March 12, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) has received approval from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of the company's plan to test and certify improvements to the 787's battery system. Successful completion of each step within the plan will result in the FAA's approval to resume commercial 787 flights.

"Our top priority is the integrity of our products and the safety of the passengers and crews who fly on them," said Boeing Chairman, President and CEO Jim McNerney. "Our team has been working around the clock to understand the issues and develop a solution based on extensive analysis and testing following the events that occurred in January. Today's approval from the FAA is a critical and welcome milestone toward getting the fleet flying again and continuing to deliver on the promise of the 787," he said.

Ray Conner, president and chief executive officer of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said that the company's focus has been on developing a permanent resolution.

"Working with internal and external experts in battery technology, we have proposed a comprehensive set of solutions designed to significantly minimize the potential for battery failure while ensuring that no battery event affects the continued safe operation of the airplane," said Conner.

"Our proposal includes three layers of improvements. First, we've improved design features of the battery to prevent faults from occurring and to isolate any that do. Second, we've enhanced production, operating and testing processes to ensure the highest levels of quality and performance of the battery and its components. Third, in the unlikely event of a battery failure, we've introduced a new enclosure system that will keep any level of battery overheating from affecting the airplane or being noticed by passengers," Conner said.

Design feature improvements for the battery include the addition of new thermal and electrical insulation materials and other changes. The enhanced production and testing processes include more stringent screening of battery cells prior to battery assembly. Operational improvements focus on tightening of the system's voltage range. A key feature of the new enclosure is that it ensures that no fire can develop in the enclosure or in the battery. Additional details of the new design will be provided by Boeing in the days ahead.

Boeing made its certification plan proposal to the FAA in late February. Today the agency agreed that the proposed changes and the detailed test plans address the conditions that resulted in the suspension of 787 operations.

The FAA also granted Boeing permission to begin flight test activities on two airplanes: line number 86, which will conduct tests to demonstrate that the comprehensive set of solutions work as intended in flight and on the ground; and ZA005, which is scheduled to conduct engine improvement tests unrelated to the battery issue. Additional testing may be scheduled as needed.

The certification plan calls for a series of tests that show how the improved battery system will perform in normal and abnormal conditions. The test plans were written based on the FAA's standards as well as applicable guidelines published by the Radio Technical Commission on Aeronautics (RTCA), an advisory committee that provides recommendations on ways to meet regulatory requirements. The RTCA guidelines were not available when the original 787 battery certification plan was developed.

"We have a great deal of confidence in our solution set and the process for certifying it," said Conner. "Before 787s return to commercial service, our customers and their passengers want assurance that the improvements being introduced will make this great airplane even better. That's what this test program will do."

The FAA also released the following:

Press Release – FAA Approves Boeing 787 Certification Plan

For Immediate Release
March 12, 2013
Contact: Laura J. Brown
Phone: (202) 267-3455

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) today approved the Boeing Commercial Airplane Company's certification plan for the redesigned 787 battery system, after thoroughly reviewing Boeing’s proposed modifications and the company’s plan to demonstrate that the system will meet FAA requirements. The certification plan is the first step in the process to evaluate the 787’s return to flight and requires Boeing to conduct extensive testing and analysis to demonstrate compliance with the applicable safety regulations and special conditions.

“This comprehensive series of tests will show us whether the proposed battery improvements will work as designed,” said Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood. “We won’t allow the plane to return to service unless we’re satisfied that the new design ensures the safety of the aircraft and its passengers.”

The battery system improvements include a redesign of the internal battery components to minimize initiation of a short circuit within the battery, better insulation of the cells and the addition of a new containment and venting system.

“We are confident the plan we approved today includes all the right elements to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the battery system redesign,” said FAA Administrator Michael P. Huerta. “Today’s announcement starts a testing process which will demonstrate whether the proposed fix will work as designed.”

The certification plan requires a series of tests which must be passed before the 787 could return to service. The plan establishes specific pass/fail criteria, defines the parameters that should be measured, prescribes the test methodology and specifies the test setup and design. FAA engineers will be present for the testing and will be closely involved in all aspects of the process.

The FAA also has approved limited test flights for two aircraft. These aircraft will have the prototype versions of the new containment system installed. The purpose of the flight tests will be to validate the aircraft instrumentation for the battery and battery enclosure testing in addition to product improvements for other systems.

The FAA will approve the redesign only if the company successfully completes all required tests and analysis to demonstrate the new design complies with FAA requirements. The FAA’s January 16, 2013 airworthiness directive, which required operators to temporarily cease 787 operations, is still in effect, and the FAA is continuing its comprehensive review of the 787 design, production and manufacturing process.

Already the FAA is confident of the plan that Boeing submitted and the FAA approved thus the stakes are being set with a lot on the line with regards to the re-certification program. Boeing and the FAA cannot afford to get this wrong.

FAA expected to respond to Boeing 787 proposal next week. Longer grounding expected.

2013-02-27T21:48:00.000-05:00

Today Michael Huerta, the FAA chief, testified before a House subcommittee on aviation that he expects that his staff will complete their review of Boeing's return to flight proposal next week but does caution that "Once we approve the plan, then we have to go through the process of actually implementing the plan, which will involve a great deal of testing, a great deal of further analysis and re-engineering before these planes are back in the air".

He characterized Boeing's plan as comprehensive as it deals with the issues on a cell level, battery level and airplane level, referring the to the multi layers of protection that Boeing had presented last week to the FAA. Still GS Yuasa has indicated that Boeing should add in protection against external current surges. Obviously GS Yuasa feel that the issues lay not with their battery but from other external factors. This may complicate Boeing's ability to return the 787 to revenue flight in a timely manner according to an article in the Wall Street Journal.

This indicates that the 787 for customers will be on the ground for much longer than Boeing anticipates. I am willing to venture that the grounding will last through May with final re-certification of the lithium ion batteries coming around that time and resumption of revenue flight in June. Already many current customers (8 thus far) are planning for resumption of service around the summer time with LOT Polish Airlines planning for a resumption in the fall time though this is probably very extreme. The Seattle Times has an excellent article about today's testimony and the current situation with regards to the 787.

So what does this mean for the timing of 787 delivery resumption? Boeing will have 23 complete 787s by Feb. 28. If I assume that customer flights resume by the end May which would mean that customer deliveries won't resume until the end of the second quarter as Boeing would need a month of pre-delivery ground and flight tests before they can deliver new 787s.

This means another 4 months of 787s coming off the final assembly lines in Everett and Charleston at a rate of 5/month. This means Boeing would add another 20 787s that will be stored around the two final assembly locations. Additionally, I believe that Boeing will also have finished 2 787s that are currently undergoing change incorporation at the Everett Modification Center (EMC). This means that Boeing will have a backlog of about 45 787s waiting to be delivered. The 45 would be split 34 Dreamliners at Everett and 11 at Charleston. This number will create a storage challenge for Boeing at both locations. Some of these airplanes have had flight tests (5 airplanes) but would need further tests in light of the enhanced battery protection measures that Boeing will install. If Boeing is to attempt to deliver more than 60 787s, they would have to deliver 10/month for the second half of the year.

Also what is unclear is how this will affect Boeing's plan to test and certify the 787-9 the first of which should be ready for flight by late August to early September. Additionally, it is unknown how all this affect Boeing's efforts to certify the 787 for ETOPS 330 though I would expect that the FAA will have additional conditions that Boeing will have to meet in order to allow the 330 minute limit for the 787s. Air New Zealand, the first 787-9 customer needs to have the aircraft certified for ETOPS 330 by the time it takes delivery.

Boeing presents battery solution to FAA, FAA says no flights until they are satisfied

2013-02-22T22:45:00.003-05:00

Boeing 787 program managers lead by BCA Chief met with FAA leaders lead by FAA Chief Mike Huerta to listen to Boeing's plan to fix the battery issues in order to return the 787 to flight status.

News reports say that this is not an interim fix but a permanent fix to mitigate problems that may arise if there was another short circuit and thermal runaway in the cells of the battery.

Boeing proposed changes includes (according to media reports):

1) A fire proof case to house the the eight cells of the battery to contain any smoke and fire from the rest of the electrical and electronics in the two E/E Bays

2) Venting of any smoke and gases out of the aircraft through pipes installed in the new case. This is to ensure that smoke does not get into the cockpit or the cabin

3) Wider spacing between the the eight individual cells and ceramic partitions between the cells

4) Enhanced and improve monitoring of the cells with information presented to the pilots throughout all phases of flight on each of the battery cells.

5) New battery monitoring procedure to be performed by the pilots before, during and after each flight.

Boeing says that they have had made good progress on addressing the battery issues and that today's meeting was "productive" (whatever that means). but the blunt statement by the FAA tells it all:

Deputy Transportation Secretary John Porcari, FAA Administrator Michael P. Huerta and other FAA officials met with senior executives from The Boeing Company today to discuss the status of ongoing work to address 787 battery issues. The FAA is reviewing a Boeing proposal and will analyze it closely. The safety of the flying public is our top priority and we won't allow the 787 to return to commercial service until we're confident that any proposed solution has addressed the battery failure risks.

The FAA is certainly not going to give Boeing a pass on this and given that the NTSB still has not determined the root cause of the short circuiting, the FAA is going to look over their proposal and more than likely have additional conditions and tests that Boeing will have to carry out.

A good thing is that Boeing has been in constant contact with the FAA about the investigation and their plans but it is still the FAA's decision whether to accept Boeing's plan and allow them to test and certify the fixes.

According to the reports that have been circulating for the past couple of days, Boeing is planning to get the testing, certification and fixes implemented so that the world wide fleet of 787s can resume flying by around late March to April.

So while the FAA is drawing a hardline (as evidenced by their statement today) they will undoubtedly take into account a couple of things:

1) Root cause of the short circuiting has not been determined and may not ever be known
2) The batteries, until January, did not exhibit any short circuiting and thermal runaway issues.
3) There is a substantial economic loss both a t the carriers that have the aircraft and at Boeing

Given the above, the FAA will probably move to allow Boeing to test and certify the fixes but I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing and GS Yuasa, the maker of the lithium ion battery look to make changes to the design to enhance the safe operation of the cells.

What Boeing is proposing are preventative measures to stop a battery issue from getting out of control. Without a root cause they cannot address the design of the battery that would prevent a recurrence of the short circuiting and thermal runaway. This is probably the best option that Boeing currently has and is probably also the most aggressive option.

I do believe that Boeing will be able to return the aircraft to revenue flights but it will not be until late April to mid May before that happens. In the meantime, Everett will add on at least 10 more 787s while Charleston will add 2 to 3 787s to those waiting to be delivered. I think the FAA will come back with a response to Boeing's proposal fairly quickly (within the next one week).

In some good news, the JTSB (Japanese Transport Safety Board) has discovered what caused the the fuel spillage from a JAL 787 on January 9th at Logan International. It was small piece of FOD (foreign object debris) that prevented the closure of a valve. During a test on the same aircraft later in January, there was another fuel leak. The second one was attributable to a micro switch that was painted in a protective coating. The painting had left behind a small piece of hair from the brush causing the the switch to lock. Boeing is going to make sure that the micro switches are not painted in the protective coating again.

Updated 787 firing order to L/N 160

2013-02-18T21:35:00.003-05:00

I have updated my 787 tracking spreadsheet to reflect the firing order from L/N 131 to L/N 160.

A couple of interesting things stand out. All three flight test 787-9s will be assembled on the Everett surge line in 40-24 and during the final assembly of these 3 test flight aircraft, no other 787s for customers will be assembled. This is not too surprising as Boeing needs to retire risk associated with assembling the newest version of the 787 and doesn't want to run the chance of unforeseen issues with assembly of the 787-9 to hold up assembling the 787-8 for customers.

Another interesting item is the increasing number of airframes being built at Boeing Charleston. The current monthly assembly rate is 1/month but with this firing order Boeing is looking to go to 1.5/month.

Back to the 787-9, the list also shows ZB197 (LN 146) a 787-9 going to ANA. Why Boeing is building this aircraft for ANA before Air New Zealand, which is to take the first 787-9, is a mystery.

There are some notable airlines whose first 787s are on this list including: Air Canada (ZA610, LN 160), Kenya Airways (ZA655, LN 157) and Norwegian Air Shuttle will be getting its first non-leased 787 (ZA650, LN 136).

There are a couple of airplanes being leased from ILFC but I don't have the customers yet. The Boeing customer codes is ABD (Air Berlin perhaps) and KBL (absolutely no idea who this is).

There is also one 787 whose identity is completely unknown and I'm working to try and figure out who the customer is for ZA778 (LN 149).

In this batch of 30 aircraft here is the breakdown:

5 for ANA
1 for Air Canada
1 for Air India
1 for China Southern Airlines
2 for Hainan Airlines
4 for ILFC (various customers)
2 for JAL
1 for Kenya Airways
1 for Norwegian Air Shuttle
3 for Qatar Airways
2 for QANTAS (Jet Star)
1 for Royal Brunei Airlines
1 for Thomson
2 for Boeing (2 787-9 for flight test)
2 for United Airlines
1 unidentified

All this would be meaningless if there isn't any progress on the 787 lithium ion battery issue. In an article in the Seattle Times, reporter Dominic Gates reported that Boeing is prepared to propose a short term interim fix to the FAA for the battery which encompasses a titanium or steel enclosure for the battery with high pressure venting for gas and electrolytes which would be released in the case of the thermal runaway. Also included is enhanced monitoring.

All this would allow (if the FAA approved) for Boeing and its partners to completely redesign and re-certify a new lithium ion battery for use on the 787. However, it seems that the FAA is going to prolong this and will grill Boeing very hard on this interim measure. Boeing is aiming to get the 787s flying again by end of May as they will need time to refine the short term fix, test it and certify it for airline use. The FAA will have a lot to say about what kind of test results they want to see from Boeing.

ZA005 start lithium ion test flights but resumption of 787 revenue flights still a big question mark

2013-02-09T22:44:00.000-05:00

As Boeing's GEnx powered 787 initiated test flights to gather data on the operating environment of the aircraft's lithium ion batteries many questions still are circulating not the least which is when will the FAA allow the 787s to resume revenue flights by the world's airlines.

Here's a rundown of the latest news:

Lithium Ion Battery Investigation

The NTSB, in preliminary report, has narrowed down the origin of the fire to cell 6 (of 8) in the battery in the aft E/E bay of ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J). The thermal runaway ("an uncontrolled chemical reaction at high temperatures") was caused by several short circuits in cell 6 which propagated to the adjacent cells (primarily cells 5, 7, and 8). Cells 1 through 4 were also damaged but as you can see from the picture above, they weren't damaged as badly as the cells. The root cause of the short circuiting has yet to be determined but the NTSB is looking at various factors in the search of the root cause. These factors include design, certification and manufacturing processes of the lithium ion battery. They did rule out external short circuiting as well as any external damage that caused the cell to short circuit. Investigators will look at battery charging as well as as any other external factors that may have had affected the cell thus the NTSB has a long way to go.

Already though the NTSB is looking at the certification of the battery by the FAA charging that this battery should not have been certified under the special conditions that were set forth. Additionally, Boeing had predicted, based on their testing, that a smoke event from the lithium ion batteries would occur once in 10,000,000 flight hours. However, 2 smoke events have occurred in less than 100,000 flight hours across the worldwide 787 fleet. Thus NTSB Chairperson said that "the failure rate was higher than predicted as part of the certification process and the possibility that a short circuit in a single cell could propagate to adjacent cells and result in smoke and fire must be reconsidered." Additionally, the NTSB said "During the 787 certification process, Boeing studied possible failures that could occur within the battery. Those assessments included the likelihood of particular types of failures occurring, as well as the effects they could have on the battery. In tests to validate these assessments, Boeing found no evidence of cell-to-cell propagation or fire, both of which occurred in the JAL event."

In other words, the certification process by the FAA and Boeing for the lithium ion batteries is severely flawed and if these batteries are to be used on the 787 then the FAA and Boeing needs to reconsider how these batteries are to be tested along with containment and monitoring along different failure modes because the fire did show cell to cell propagation whereas Boeing testing (and FAA sign off) did not show that it would occur.

The NTSB will release an interim report in about 4 weeks but it is not known if they would have found the root cause of the battery incident in Boston. Lastly, it'll be interesting to note if the JTSB would find a similar short circuiting cell from the ANA (ZA102, LN 9, JA804A) battery. Thus far both batteries have shown signs of thermal runaway and short circuiting though the ANA battery did not catch fire. Still there was significant high temperature damage to that battery.

Here is the press release from the NTSB on Thursday:

NTSB identifies origin of JAL Boeing 787 battery fire; design, certification and manufacturing processes come under scrutiny

February 7, 2013

WASHINGTON - At a news conference today, NTSB Chairman Deborah A.P. Hersman identified the origin of the Jan. 7 battery fire that occurred on a Japan Airlines 787 parked at Boston Logan Airport, and said that a focus of the investigation will be on the design and certification requirements of the battery system.

"U.S. airlines carry about two million people through the skies safely every day, which has been achieved in large part through design redundancy and layers of defense," said Hersman. "Our task now is to see if enough - and appropriate - layers of defense and adequate checks were built into the design, certification and manufacturing of this battery."

After an exhaustive examination of the JAL lithium-ion battery, which was comprised of eight individual cells, investigators determined that the majority of evidence from the flight data recorder and both thermal and mechanical damage pointed to an initiating event in a single cell. That cell showed multiple signs of short circuiting, leading to a thermal runaway condition, which then cascaded to other cells. Charred battery components indicated that the temperature inside the battery case exceeded 500 degrees Fahrenheit.

As investigators work to find the cause of the initiating short circuit, they ruled out both mechanical impact damage to the battery and external short circuiting. It was determined that signs of deformation and electrical arcing on the battery case occurred as a result of the battery malfunction and were not related to its cause.

Chairman Hersman said that potential causes of the initiating short circuit currently being evaluated include battery charging, the design and construction of the battery, and the possibility of defects introduced during the manufacturing process.

During the 787 certification process, Boeing studied possible failures that could occur within the battery. Those assessments included the likelihood of particular types of failures occurring, as well as the effects they could have on the battery. In tests to validate these assessments, Boeing found no evidence of cell-to-cell propagation or fire, both of which occurred in the JAL event.

The NTSB learned that as part of the risk assessment Boeing conducted during the certification process, it determined that the likelihood of a smoke emission event from a 787 battery would occur less than once in every 10 million flight hours. Noting that there have been two critical battery events on the 787 fleet with fewer than 100,000 flight hours, Hersman said that "the failure rate was higher than predicted as part of the certification process and the possibility that a short circuit in a single cell could propagate to adjacent cells and result in smoke and fire must be reconsidered."

As the investigation continues, which will include testing on some of the batteries that had been replaced after being in service in the 787 fleet, the NTSB will continue to share its findings in real time with the FAA, Boeing, the Japan Transport Safety Board, and the French investigative agency, the Bureau d'Enquêtes et d'Analyses.

"The decision to return the fleet to flight will be made by the FAA, which underscores the importance of cooperation and coordination between our agencies," Hersman said.

She also announced that the NTSB would release an interim report of factual findings within 30 days.

Additional information, including a video of the today's media briefing, the PowerPoint presentation, the FAA's Special Conditions for the B-787 battery system, and related documents, can be accessed at http://go.usa.gov/4K4J.

The NTSB will provide additional factual updates as developments warrant. To be alerted to any updates or developments, follow the NTSB on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ntsb.

Resumption of 787 flights

Last Wednesday the FAA gave approval to Boeing to conduct a one off ferry flight of a 787 for China Southern Airlines 787, ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) that was stuck in Ft. Worth, Texas for painting when the grounding occurred in mid January. The ferry flight was from Ft. Worth to Everett and had a number of restrictions placed on it to ensure the safety of the flight crew on board. The aircraft flew to Everett on Thursday and landed among a media circus gathered at Paine Field that evening. Later that night , the FAA gave approval to Boeing's request to conduct flight tests using ZA005 (LN 5, N787FT) for the purposes of gather data on the lithium ion batteries while in flight. Boeing will be looking to record data on moisture, vibrations and other environmental factors which may have contributed to the short circuiting of the cell. Additionally, Boeing is hoping to conduct test on possible containment and venting systems as well as a more robust battery monitoring system to mitigate the risks of another lithium ion battery thermal event. It is known that Boeing is working on a plan to submit per the FAA's emergency airworthiness directive that forced the 787 grounding. It is rumored that Boeing wold like to have this temporary solution on the customer airplanes and re certify them by the end of March though that may be very optimistic. Boeing would have to convince the FAA on the soundness of their approach (which is being characterized as interim). Additionally Boeing can forget, for now, on obtaining ETOPS 330 for the 787 based on the the battery issue as well as the other issues that has caused the FAA to imitate the 787 program review in early January.

There maybe some one off 787 flights to reposition 787s that are stranded away from the their home bases (like the Polish LOT 787 in Chicago). I don't have any data on the 787s that are stranded. Air India conducted several ferry flights from Delhi to Mumbai of their 787s. In my opinion, I believe the 787s can see a return to flights status around the April to May time frame. The FAA is not going to rush them back to the air but they won't be 1000% safe as Ray LaHood promises that they will be.

Battery Plan

As mentioned earlier, Boeing is drawing up a plan to return the 787s to flight and to resume deliveries. The FAA emergency airworthiness directive states "Before further flight, operators of U.S.-registered, Boeing 787 aircraft must demonstrate to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that the batteries are safe.
The FAA will work with the manufacturer and carriers to develop a corrective action plan to allow the U.S. 787 fleet to resume operations as quickly and safely as possible."

This leaves a lot of leeway for Boeing to introduce a new battery protocol that would encompass monitoring, containment and venting in to the 787s fleet. However, given the seriousness of the problem, this plan is being viewed as more of a temporary step with a view that Boeing may have to completely redesign and re certify (under more presumably stringent conditions) the lithium ion batteries. The redesign and recertification may take up to a year to complete. Boeing is reiterating that they will continue to use the lithium ion batteries.

Production and Flight Testing

Currently between North Charleston and Everett, Boeing has 19 787s that are complete and need to finish the typical Boeing/customer flight and ground test program that occurs prior to delivery. There are 15 787s at Everett that are complete and 4 at Boeing Charleston. Boeing is adding about 1 airplane per week to that total as production is continuing full tilt at both final assembly sites not including 787s coming from the EMC. At this rate Boeing can double the number (to about 40) of 787s parked at both Charleston and Everett by the end of May if there isn't progress on the battery issue and a restart of deliveries. Boeing is planning to deliver at least 9 re-worked 787s in 2013 along with about 55 or more non re-worked airplanes in 2013. Some customers have already been alerted that near term deliveries will be delayed but I believe that the delays may extended into the summer due to the grounding. If there is an extended grounding, Boeing may free up room around Everett by conducting the B-1 flights of 747s, 777s, and 767s from Everett but have them land at Boeing Field to finish the testing and delivery process. This way spots can open up at Everett for more 787s that have to be parked. Additionally there is room at the tower ramp, Runway 11/29 and the south ramp area at Everett. On a brighter note, Boeing was able to finalize the order for 42 787s with American Airlines this past week. That firm order will comprise of 20 787-8 and 22 787-9 plus 58 options which would encompass all 787 derivatives. The first one is to be delivered in November 2014...about 21 months from now.