offsiderule

A pinch of Salt Lake City

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Sat, 30 May 2015 22:56:00 +0000

Earlier this week the U.S. Department of Justice announced its investigation into alleged corruption, indicting nine FIFA officials and five corporate executives.

Comparisons with Salt Lake City's Olympic bidding scandal in 1998-99 soon emerged, including NPR's Howard Berkes who contrasted FIFA's response with that of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and compared Sepp Blatter with the then IOC President Juan Antonio Samaranch.

The comparisons are nothing new, as Reuters reported four years ago.

Looking further back, many of the circumstances are similar with sponsors such as Visa, McDonald's and Coca-Cola raising concerns about FIFA, as UPS, Home Depot and Coca-Cola (they have history) did about the IOC in 1999.

The scandal prompted significant changes in the IOC's host city election process, changes that many would welcome in FIFA, but what happened to the two leaders of the Salt Lake City bid?

Following investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice, Thomas K. Welch and David R. Johnson were charged in July 2000 with one count of conspiracy, five counts of mail fraud, five counts of wire fraud and four counts of interstate travel in aid of racketeering. The pair were finally acquitted in December 2003 after the judge ruled there was insufficient evidence to sustain a conviction.

This week's indictments may be a catalyst for change in football but history suggests that we should take them with a pitch on Salt (Lake City).

2013 Formula 1 Petronas Malaysia Grand Prix - Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Sat, 23 Mar 2013 00:11:00 +0000

The flying Finn Kimi Räikkönen will seek to build on his win in Australia last week as the Formula 1 championships moves to Malaysia. Räikkönen has a solid record in the Asian country with two wins and another podium finish.

Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso boast the best records though with five podiums and three wins each. Alonso can also point to remarkable reliability where he has won all 11 Malaysian Grand Prix he has started.

England's Jenson Button has four podium finishes (including one win), double the number of his compatriot and former team mate Lewis Hamilton.
World Champion Sebastian Vettel also has a good record in Malaysia and he trails only Alonso in terms of form over the past year. However, Alonso's remarkable consistency - 14 podium finishes from 20 starts - has been outdone by Vettel's winning ways.
Alonso, Räikkönen and Vettel look a step ahead of the rest and any one could win in Malaysia.

Will the Australian GP winner win the World Championship?

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 21:26:00 +0000

The Formula 1 year starts later than most. St Patrick's Day in Melbourne brought the first race of the 2013 season: the Australian Grand Prix. But how good a guide is this GP, or for that matter, any one GP, as to who will be the Champion come November?

The map below seeks to answer that question. We look at what percentage of the winners of each GP go on to win the Championship between 1991 and 2012. Then we we map the results by host country.

The results range from 100% in India, where Sebastian Vettel has won both GP, to 25% in Abu Dhabi, where only one of the four Grand Prix have been won by the eventual champion.

In Australia, only 55% of GP winners became World Champions. But Australian GP winners should take heart from the fact that, since 2000, the proportion has jumped to 69%. So the winner on Sunday may be on the right road to becoming the 2013 F1 World Champion. By comparison, 50% of Malaysian GP winners have been crowned champions.

US sports could learn from Australia's anti-doping efforts

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 10:07:00 +0000

This week an Australian Crime Commission (ACC) said widespread use of performance and image enhancing drugs (PIEDs) has been identified, or is suspected, in professional sport in Australia. In the report "Organised Crime and Drugs in Sport", the ACC notes:
"Despite being prohibited substances in professional sport, peptides and hormones are being used by professional athletes in Australia, facilitated by sports scientists, high-performance coaches and sports staff."

The ACC said it has also identified the involvement of organised crime in the domestic distribution of PIEDs, and warned of the danger to professional sports' integrity should organised crime increase its presence in the distribution of PIEDs and exploit their association with professional athletes or their teams to facilitate other illegal and profitable activities such as match-fixing.

The government responded by pointing to new legislation it had introduced to strengthen the powers of the Australian Sports Anti-Doping Authority (ASADA) and highlighting work done by the major professional sporting bodies, such as the Australian Football League and the National Rugby League, on maintaining the integrity of their sports.

Contrast that with recent coverage in the US where Major League Baseball which announced in January that random, in-season testing for human growth hormone would start this year but the NFL and the NBA have separately indicated this month that HGH testing might start in American football and basketball next season.

The central role played by collective bargaining arrangements between owners and players in US sports appears to be a major drag on efforts to combat doping there. However, in the wake of the United States Anti-Doping Agency's report which found that the "US Postal Service Pro Cycling Team ran the most sophisticated, professionalized and successful doping program that sport has ever seen", pressure has grown on US sports to protect their integrity and reputation.

Belgian blues for Alonso?

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Sat, 01 Sep 2012 10:00:00 +0000

As the Formula One season resumes, Belgium could be the place for Fernando Alonso's rivals to close the gap on the leader.

The Spaniard leads the world championship by 40 points from Australian Mark Webber. He is also the leading driver over the past year, averaging 14.7 points per race with ten podium finishes.

However, Belgium has been an unhappy hunting ground for Alonso. Mr. Consistency has finished only four of his seven Grand Prix there.

So who could take the initiative? Michael Schumacher and Kimi Raikkonen are the only current drivers with multiple wins, but the bigger threats are likely to be Lewis Hamilton (starter from pole in 2008 and winner in 2010) and Sebastian Vettel, who won from pole last year. Mark Webber may be second in championship but his wins in Monaco and Great Brtain were his only podium finishes this year.

A pole start may help in other Grand Prix but in Belgium it counts for little with only five of the 18 races having been won from pole but a top three start could be crucial.

Gold rush drives Olympic success

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 12:45:00 +0000

When it comes to the Olympic Games it's not taking part that counts, it's winning. And it's not the silver or bronze medals for also-rans that drive nations to invest in their athletes and teams, but the allure of gold.

A look back at the post-boycott Games covering the period 1992 to 2008 shows that the most successful nations have a higher than average proportion of goals and among their medals (32% of medals in those Olympiads have been gold).

Digging deeper at trends over time, it's clear to see the nations on the rise: China, Germany and Great Britain, with Australia getting a boost from hosting in 2000.

The contrast between China and the USA highlights the shift in power. Only 32% of China's medals were gold in 1996, but by 2004, the proportion had increased to 51%, while the USA went from 44% to 33% over the same period.

Vettel's mettle faces German test

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 08:19:00 +0000

Sebastian Vettel will aim to do something he has never in Germany - win a Formula 1 Grand Prix. In four attempts, Vettel has not finished better than second, though he started from pole once.

Grid position is crucial in Germany with twelve of the past twenty races won from pole - and eleven of 18 races in Hockenheim.

Vettel inconsistent performances so far this season contrast with his dominance last season. Three pole positions have yielded only one race victory, while his three podium finishes are surpassed by Lewis Hamilton (four) and championship leader Fernando Alonso (five).

Looking back over the past year though Vettel remains the top driver, with eleven poles, eleven podiums and six wins over the past twelve months.

He will need another strong finish in Germany, against strong opposition from Alonso, Hamilton and teammate Mark Webber, to maintain that advantage. Clinching pole position today could be key,

TV take boosts English UEFA revenues

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Sat, 14 Jul 2012 11:24:00 +0000

UEFA outlined how it will share some €904 million in 2011-12 revenue from the UEFA Champions League (€754 million) and UEFA Europa League (€150 million).

Much of the revenue is distributed on the basis of participation (with €3.9 million for entering the Champions League group phase and €550,000 for each group game played) and performance (with €800,000 per win and €400,000 per draw at the group stage in the Champions League and additional payments for progression through the tournament).

As the table above illustrates, however, up to 46% of distributed revenues come from the TV market pool, with clubs in the biggest TV markets, and English clubs in particular, benefitting disproportionately. Even though it went out at the group stage Manchester United still earned more from the market pool (€25.9 million) than any other club apart from Chelsea (€30.4 million).

The net effect of the market pool is that performance does not necessarily correlate with revenue. Taking UEFA's club coefficient as a proxy for performance, the chart below shows the revenues of each club from UEFA Champions League and Europa League/UEFA Cup participation for teams ranked one through ten by UEFA coefficient. Despite ranking above Manchester United on performance, Barcelona has earned significantly less than their English rivals.

Most striking is the limited financial return from success in the UEFA's second tier, the Europa League or UEFA Cup in its time. Atletico Madrid has earned €51.8 million in the past five seasons but despite winning the Europa League twice in that period, the Champions League contributed €31.4 million of the revenues.

The Europa League may be a nice little earner but the Champions League is where the money is.

Fernando Alonso's steady progression

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Sun, 08 Jul 2012 08:47:00 +0000

Fernando Alonso yesterday clinched his first pole since Singapore in September 2010.

Alonso is well placed to extend his lead in the FIA Formula 1 World Championship as he continued an impressively steady run of results.

It's now over two years since the Spanish former world champion failed to finish a race (Canada, June 2011) and almost two years since he finished a race outside the top ten (Great Britain, July 2010).

Bundesliga good, Bundesliga 2 not so good

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 08:00:00 +0000

The latest annual report from the German professional league, Bundesliga, shows that while the top tier enjoyed a rebound in fortunes with a profit of €52.3 million in 2010/11, compared with a loss of €72.3 million in 2010/11. While an 11% rise in payroll costs for match operations contributed to the loss in 2010/11, payroll costs continued to rise last year but were offset by an 84% jump in transfer revenues - a welcome boost but hardly a recipe for long-term success.

More worrying is the continuing decline in the Bundesliga 2, which posted yet another loss after taxes. While the top division posted record spectator numbers with almost 12.9 million paying spectators (over 60% of whom paid with season tickets), the Bundesliga 2 attendances fell for the third consecutive year. attendances have dropped from over 5 million in 2007/08 to less than 4.5 million last year, with only 41% of attendances coming from season ticket holders, compared with over 52% only two years earlier.

At least the Bundesliga 2 can point to a sharp rise in revenues, driven by advertising and sponsorship (up 36.6% year-on-year),which overtook media receipts as the main revenue source. Each source accounts for about 31% of revenues.

Both divisions can point to a rise in the number of clubs reporting positive results (after tax): eight of 18 in 2010/11 in the Bundesliga 2, compared with five two years earlier, and 12 of 18 from only seven a year earlier in the top tier. Which just goes to show that even in a league with the Bundesliga's reputation for good management, football is a tough business.

Messi makes his move

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 13:20:00 +0000

Lionel Messi provided seven good reasons for his selection as the winner of the FIFA Ballon d'Or 2011, with seven goals in his past six matches. Five of those came in the league and included his second, third and fourth away goals of the season. They also saw the Argentinian close the gap on his Portuguese rival Cristiano Ronaldo to one goal.

Europe's Top Goalscorers 25 January 2012

Based on UEFA.com data. The index is calculated as Goals * ((UEFA Country Coefficient*0.6)+(% of league goals per game indexed*0.25)+(% of team goals indexed*0.15)).

The two players have scored a combined 45 goals in Spain's top division for Real Madrid and Barcelona this season. That's more than any of the other 18 teams in the league have scored. Add in goals in the Copa del Rey and UEFA cup competitions and they have combined for 59 goals in 55 appearances.

Elsewhere, the form players include Atletico Madrid's Falcao (five goals in the past month), Udinese's Antonio Di Natale (four) and Benfica's Oscar Cardozo (four).

Burak on a charge

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 14:03:00 +0000

Ballon d'Or winner Lionel Messi closed the gap on Europe's top goalscorer Cristiano Ronaldo with a brace for Barcelona in the 4-2 win over Real Betis. Yet Messi remains dependent on his home comforts: only one of his 19 goals in La Liga this season have been scored away from home.

Of the other big movers, Trabzonspor's Burak Yilmaz has made a big impression recently. The Turkish international scored in nine of eleven matches for club and country in September and October 2011 but failed to score in eight consecutive matches in November and December.

As many of Europe's league took their winter break, Burak started a scoring spree that has netted eight goals and two assists in his past four Turkish Super League matches.

Europe's Top Goalscorer Index (15 January 2012)

The index is calculated as:
Goals * ((UEFA Country Coefficient*0.6)+(% of league goals per game indexed*0.25)+(% of team goals indexed*0.15)).
Data derived from UEFA website (www.uefa.com).

Selecting Europe's top goalscorer

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 13:29:00 +0000

The ESM Golden Shoe is awarded to the leading goalscorer in UEFA's leagues. As the standings are calculated based on a simple weighting (goals in Europe's top five leagues earn two points, goals in the lowest leagues earning one point each and leagues in between earning 1.5 points each).

As a result, UEFA's latest review shows Aleksandrs Cekulajevs of Estonia's Trans Narva still leading the way with 46 points (46 goals) and Cristiano Ronaldo of Spain's Real Madrid catching up fast with 42 points (21 goals).

Is there a better system that ESM's simple weighting?

Consider the standings without the weighting: Cekulajevs still leads the way but is joined at the top by a number of other strikers from lesser but high-scoring European leagues.

An alternative approach is to take UEFA's own system of country ranking coefficients based on clubs' performances over the previous five seasons. Under this system, Cekulajevs would drop to 521st overall, suffering because of Estonia's low ranking (47th).

The top 50 is now dominated by the big five leagues (England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France).

However, there is more to consider that the performance of clubs in European competition. What about the number of goals in each league and the number of goals per game in each league? As the chart shows, the Faroe Islands and Estonia lead the way with 3.54 and 3.42 goals per game, respectively. Cyprus has only 2.19 goals per game, behind, Poland with 2.2 and Greece and Serbia both with 2.23. Of those not visible on the chart, Turkey has 2.29 goals per game, Scotland 2.6 and England 2.83.

There is also the strength of the team. Some teams simply score more goals, such as Manchester City in England or Real Madrid and Barcelona in Spain but how many of the club's goals does each player contribute? How important is he to the club? Mario Balotelli and Steven Fletcher have both scored eight goals in the English Premier League but Balotelli accounts for only 14% of Manchester City's goals, while Fletcher has provided 36% of of Wolves's.

Taking all these things into account, I would suggest a new index based on the following formula:
Goals * ((UEFA Country Coefficient*0.6)+(% of league goals per game indexed*0.25)+(% of team goals indexed*0.15)).

The results, below, look like a fairer reflection of relative scoring achievement, giving due recognition to players in lesser leagues such as Greece, Belgium, the Netherlands, the Ukraine, Romania and Estonia.

One thing is clear, though. Cristiano Ronaldo looks like the man to beat. Which begs the question: how many goals does he need to score to win FIFA's Ballon d'Or?

Fixture congestion - Greek-style

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 21:49:00 +0000

Any manager bemoaning fixture congestion in the English Premier League (EPL) should spare a thought for Doxa Dramas. Doxa and Levadiakos benefitted from the demotion of Olympiakos Volos and Kavala for their part in the match-fixing scandal that emerged in 2011 (Match-fixing suspects could number more than 800 - Katherimini).

However, because the two clubs only joined the Greek Super League in November their opponents had already played seven rounds of games. The two teams have been playing catch-up since.

Levadiakos have fared the better, lying only one point behind Kerkyra and two behind PAS Gianinna but with three games in hand.

Doxa are rooted to the bottom of the table with two points and a solitary goal from 52 shots to show for their nine games in the top flight. However, the second of those points was earned last week in a scoreless draw with second-placed AEK Athens suggests there may be life in Drama yet.

The club now faces a Herculean schedule of 15 matches in 50 days, including a Greek Cup fifth round tie against Kerkyra (schedule on UEFA.com). By contrast, Manchester City currently have 11 games scheduled over the same period, even though they're active in four competitions (EPL, FA Cup, League Cup, UEFA Europa League).

The contrast could not be greater. While City will be seeking trophies, Doxa will be fighting for survival.

Railing against CAN

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 16:47:00 +0000

The English media and football managers make alot of noise about the disruption caused by the African Cup of Nations (CAN). Its timing may be problematic and its regularity - every two years - may be unnecessary and foolish, but just what impact does the absence of players for the CAN have on English Premier League teams?

Sixteen teams will compete in CAN 2012, including the co-hosts Equitorial Guinea and Gabon.

UEFA's website usefully provides a listing of players in all its teams by nationality. Only 17 players in the English Premier League represent the countries that will compete in CAN 2012.

Only a handful of these players are first-team regulars, however, drawn mainly from the Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire): Didier Drogba (Chelsea), Gervinho (Arsenal), Cheick Tioté (Newcastle United), Kolo Toure, Yaya Toure (Manchester City).

Senegalese striker Demba Ba, whose 15 goals and two assists represent 59% of Newcastle United's goals this season, will perhaps be most sorely missed.

EPL top scorers 2 January 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 10:43:00 +0000

There's little change among the English Premier League's top scorers (goals and assists) but Arsenal's Robin van Persie extended his lead at the top with his 17th goal of the season against QPR. Of the other top ten scorers only Blackburn's Ayegbeni Yakubu added to his tally, with two goals in the shock win over Manchester United.

In terms of form, three players have benefitted from Man.United's recent goal flurry: Antonio Valencia, Nani and Dimitar Berbatov.

While Berbatov's six goals in three games may get most of the attention, Valencia has one goal and seven assists in the past month, with at least one assist in each of his past five games.

EPL scorers 30 December 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 00:15:00 +0000

Seventeen players have played a part (scored or made an assist) in at least ten goals in the English Premier League so far, according to UEFA data.

Arsenal's Robin van Persie leads the way with 16 goals and five assists, followed by Manchester City's Sergio Aguero with 13 goals and four assists.

Ayegbeni Yakubu of Blackburn Rovers has more goals (ten) than any other player without an assist.

EPL consistency ratings 30 December 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 00:06:00 +0000

Everyone should have a hobby: something to occupy and quiet the mind; to provide a break from work and a means of self-expression. Many people are content simply to watch TV or read. Others need more. I have fantasy football (both NFL and association football).

While it's been a good year for me in the NFL, it's been an awful one for Fantasy Premier League. Week after week I recruit players who promise but do not deliver while I slide further down the rankings. I needed reliable players who would provide me with points on a regular basis.

ESPN's Tristan H. Cockcroft does it for the NFL so why can't it be done for the English Premier League, and other soccer leagues?

In developing a consistency ranking, what matters?

1. The player must play. Regular appearances, preferably for at least 60 minutes per game are key. Players who don't play don't get goals.

2. Goals and assists are crucial. Most of the points are earned in this way. Clean sheets are also valuable but they depend as much on the team as individual efforts.

3. Discipline is also important but poor discipline should be punished by suspensions, impacting on appearances so they don't necessarily need to be observed directly.

The data source is also important. A simple but powerful source is UEFA's website, which provides minutes played, goals and assists by each player in each of their games, bar Swansea who fall between two stools by being a Welsh club in England's top division.

So how to construct a consistency index?

First, award points based on performance per game that rewards regular points scorers: one for a full appearance (60 minutes or more) in a game; two for a goal or assist in a game irrespective of minutes played; three for more than a goal or assist per game (at least two assists or goals or a goal and an assist).

Second, sum the points scored per game.This is the performance score.

Third, express the points scored as a percentage of the points that would have been scored if each appearance had earned three points. This return percentage shows how much the player gets out of each appearance. Some players suffer from injury or club rotation policies but it's important to know if they make the most of the chances they get.

Fourth, multiply the performance score by the return percentage to get the consistency rating.

It's neither exact science nor pure subjectivity but it does uncover the most consistent performers in the league.

So what are the results?

Arsenal's Robin van Persie is the clear and obvious leader. Although van Persie, Manchester City's Sergio Aguero and David Silva and Tottenham Hotspur's Emmanuel Adebayor have each had a goal or assist in eleven different games, van Persie has had more than one goal or assist in eight games, compared with four games for Aguero, three for Adebayor and two for Silva.

The form players include Gareth Bale, with three goals and two assists in three of his past four games, Nani with three goals and four assists in four of his past five games and Demba Ba, who has five goals in four of his past five games. Ba, unlike other top scorers, is an infrequent assister with his only assist coming in the 2-1 win over Fulham in August,

Manchester City's high productivity

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 08:18:00 +0000

Manchester City, like cross-town rivals Manchester United, have 13 different goalscorers in the English Premier League this season, based on UEFA data. More than United however, much of City's best productivity has come from bench players.

Nine players in the league have averaged less than 90 minutes per goal or assist. Four of the top seven are City players: Edin Dzeko, Sergio Aguero, Mario Balotelli and Adam Johnson. Dzeko and Johnson in particular are bench players having played only 107 and 111 minutes, respectively, in the league since the start of November.

Goal-a-game men

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Sat, 10 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0000

Only seven players in Europe's top 16 leagues - by UEFA's coefficient - and who have played at least five matches, have scored at least one goal per game.

Real Madrid's Cristiano Ronaldo and Barcelona's Lionel Messi lead the way and will get to go head-to-head in this weekend's El Classico.

Sandwiched in-between is Trabzonspor's Burak Yilmaz who scored in each of his first eight Turkish Premier League games for the club this season but has failed to score in the past three.

Argentinian Sebastian Leto has only failed to score or provide an assist in one of his ten league games for Panathinaikos.

The money game

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 13:40:00 +0000

A new report by PwC values the global sports market at some $119 billion in 2011, rising to $145 billion by 2015. It throws up some interesting findings such as:

the role of emerging sports markets, such as Brazil, Russia and Qatar, especially as hosts for major international events;
the major boost provided by those major events, mainly in terms of media rights and sponsorhsip deals;
sporting organisations, such as UEFA and the NBA, face growing challenges in maintaining costs and achieving sustainable competition
the impact of new technology and the fragmentation of the audience.

Another interesting angle is the split of revenues by type within regions. Gate receipts are key in EMEA markets, while sponsorship dominates in Asia-Pacific. Merchandising, which is relatively unimportant in other regions, accounts for a quarter of revenues in North America. Indeed, North American revenues are quite evenly split between all four sources, with sponsorship expected to close the gap further on gate receipts by 2015.

Hidden gem - Artjoms Rudnevs

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 22:41:00 +0000

Rankings have a special place in sport, especially for those whose teams haven't been doing so well lately. As an Arsenal fan, I've been thinking about rankings alot lately but with five wins in the past six games in all competitions, that might change. The Golden Shoe is annually awarded to Europe's top goalscorer but that accolade is only available to players in a select number of leagues. Cast the net wider - to all of UEFA's leagues and you can find some players with impressive goalscoring records. The ranking below takes the goalscorers in all of Europe's domestic leagues, weighted for the UEFA coefficient of the national league and the proportion of team and league goals scored per league game by that player. Artjoms Rudnevs, the Latvian striker with Polish league leaders Lech Poznan, has scored 14 goals in eight league games, including three hat-tricks and two braces. He also scored his first goal for the senior Latvian side against Malta earlier this month.

Why Champions League qualification matters

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 22:23:00 +0000

As the UEFA Champions League playoffs started this week, UEFA (http://www.uefa.com/uefa/management/finance/news/newsid=1661038.html) issued a timely reminder of how valuable qualification for the group stage can be.

The Champions League revenue distribution for 2010/11 showed that Slovakia's Zilina and Serbia's Partizan Belgrade earned a combined €15.9 million despite not winning a point in the group stage. The two teams they beat in the playoffs (Sparta Prague and Anderlecht, respectively) received only €3.6 million for a combined five wins and four draws in the UEFA Europa League.

For a club such as Arsenal that has come to expect , and perhaps depend upon, revenue from UEFA Champions League failing to reach the group stage would hurt their pride and their profits. Contrast Arsenal who reached the last 16 of the Champions League last season with Liverpool who reached the same stage in the Europa League. Arsenal generated almost €30 million while Liverpool got only €6.1 million.

Why are the differences so big? The market pool, which includes the distribution of TV revenues explains alot of the differences between clubs especially those in the same countries and competitions - despite equivalent performances up to the final and finishing runner-up, Manchester United earned more from the market pool than winners Barcelona.

The rest of the revenue is split according to progress - qualification for each stage and participating in group matches - and performance - with bonuses for wins and draws. As the table below shows, a team that won every group game, plus every knockout round would earned five times as much in the Champions League than in the Europa League (€31.5 million versus €6.44 million).

Somewhat perversely, a team losing all group games in the Champions League would earn more than seven times as much as a team losing all its Europa League games, while a team winning all six Champions League games would earn less than seven times as much as its counterpart in the Europa League.

Source: UEFA.com

Ten cent stakes: ice hockey 12 May

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Thu, 12 May 2011 18:08:00 +0000

Russia have played in the past four IIHF World Championship semi-finals and in the past three finals, winning in 2008 and 2009. They were also the number one ranked team going into this year's tournament but they have failed to impress: losing three of their six matches.

Their opponents in the quarter-finals are unbeaten Canada - and world number two.

Canada have the momentum but they've needed overtime for two of their victories.

Double chance: Canada/Tie 4/11 Paddy Power
Potential returns €0.13

Ten cent stake to date:
4 of 5
Profit €0.32

Auxerre and the 1-1 draw

noreply@blogger.com (Tony O'Brien) — Sun, 01 May 2011 19:50:00 +0000

Ligue 1 side recorded their 18th draw of the season on 1 May - with a 1-1 draw away to Marseille. The result means that Auxerre have drawn 54.5% of their matches and 77.8% of those draws have ended 1-1.

A deeper analysis of scores in the top five European leagues, with thanks to www.soccerstats.com, shows that 1-1 is the most common scorelines in each, especially France, where 16.72% of matches this season have finished 1-1.

In Italy's Serie A, by contrast, 1-0 is the most common result, accounting for 13.79% of matches so far this season.

Across the five leagues, the 1-1 result has become more common since 2008-09, driven mainly by results in France and England, while 1-0 (home wins) have been getting less common.

Perhaps surprising, but reassuring, is how few scoreless draws there are, as low as 4.86% of matches in the German Bundesliga.

The result may not always go your way but at least nine times out of ten you should see a goal.