Si's Blog

Fingerprints of Fire, Footprints of Peace: A Spiritual Manifesto from a Jesus Perspective

2012-10-07T00:07:00.003+01:00

Book by my wife's friend Noel Moules. Sommat about Jesus.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fingerprints-Fire-Footprints-Peace-Perspective/dp/1846946123/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1349564683&sr=8-1

Fart Noise and Monkey Dance - Kris Wallace

2012-06-24T11:40:00.001+01:00

Faith and Cheesecakes: The wisdom of a dead squirrel

2012-06-22T16:30:00.001+01:00

Faith and Cheesecakes: The wisdom of a dead squirrel: I saw a dead squirrel on my way to the tube on Monday. It has not looked any healthier as the week has progressed, and after walking home in...

Faith and Cheesecakes: A not-quite-kosher-enough cheesecake - and a Rocky...

2012-06-20T14:56:00.001+01:00

Faith and Cheesecakes: A not-quite-kosher-enough cheesecake - and a Rocky...: What a successful weekend - the highly experimental Rhubarb Cheesecake & Rocky Road Cheesecake worked out pretty darn amazing. I realise...

Faith and Cheesecakes: Rhubarb to football!

2012-06-15T17:14:00.001+01:00

Faith and Cheesecakes: Rhubarb to football!: I'm going to be one crazy cat this evening. The Husband will be out watching the England match against..... Sweden (sorry for the pause; had...

Faith and Cheesecakes: Patience, Bus Stops and Dharma

2012-06-12T20:03:00.001+01:00

Faith and Cheesecakes: Patience, Bus Stops and Dharma: How often do you have those 'What should I be doing with my life?' moments? I can't say I'm terribly prone to them but I've had a fai...

Should Greece follow Iceland or the Baltics?

2012-06-08T12:13:00.001+01:00

Should Greece follow Iceland or the Baltics?:
Proponents of the view that Greek economic prospects would be better if the country abandoned the euro in favour of a devalued new drachma often cite the recent relative performance of Iceland and the Baltic states. Iceland depreciated the krona by more than 50% against the euro between mid-2007 and mid-2009. The Baltics, by contrast, adopted extreme austerity policies to defend euro exchange rate pegs, with Estonia joining the single currency in 2011.

A comparison for each country of the level of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2011 with its pre-recession peak provides surprisingly modest support for the devaluationist view. Iceland’s GDP shortfall was still 7.9% versus 7.6% for Lithuania and 9.2% for Estonia. Latvian GDP, however, was 15.9% lower.
This comparison, moreover, flatters Iceland because the prior economic boom was less extreme than in the Baltics, implying a smaller excess to unwind during the bust. An alternative benchmark is the level of GDP in the first quarter of 2005, when booms were arguably at an early stage. Iceland has grown 9.2% since then versus 13.2% in Estonia, 16.8% in Lithuania and 9.6% even in Latvia – see chart.
Greece may lack the political and social cohesion to undertake Baltic-style austerity and “internal” devaluation, implying that euro exit is inevitable. Claims, however, that this would represent a superior policy choice leading to better medium-term economic outcomes are suspect.

Faith and Cheesecakes: Rocky Road Cheesecake: A Step Too Far?

2012-06-06T18:06:00.001+01:00

Faith and Cheesecakes: Rocky Road Cheesecake: A Step Too Far?: Right. The classic flavours are getting close to being nailed, and I just need to tweak the texture of the vanilla. So on last night's long ...

Faith and Cheesecakes: A purpose driven life?

2012-05-28T23:19:00.001+01:00

Faith and Cheesecakes: A purpose driven life?: So I've finally given in and started ready my (personally signed *name drop*) copy of Rick Warren's Purpose Driven Life, which has been sat ...

Faith and Cheesecakes: Sold!

2012-05-27T23:01:00.001+01:00

Faith and Cheesecakes: Sold!: Yesterday's cheesecakes seem to be going down well and twenty nine english pounds have been collected! Heck yeah! Not a huge profit afte...

Faith and Cheesecakes: First cheesecake sale (weather permitting)

2012-05-26T13:59:00.001+01:00

Faith and Cheesecakes: First cheesecake sale (weather permitting): Two cheesecakes dispatched this morning: One Blueberry & White Chocolate and one Madagascan Vanilla & Oreo cookie. Our ever temperamental fr...

Faith and Cheesecakes: Faith and Cheesecake

2012-05-25T15:53:00.001+01:00

Faith and Cheesecakes: Faith and Cheesecake: A blog about faith and cheesecake? An odd combination some might say. Well, not if you know me. I love all food and and have a passion f...

Dovish UK IR suggests QE hold was tactical

2012-05-18T14:34:00.001+01:00

Dovish UK IR suggests QE hold was tactical:
The May Inflation Report suggests that more QE is in the offing but the Bank of England is reserving its ammunition until the fall-out from the Eurozone crisis becomes clearer. The Bank, however, continues to deny any responsibility for improving credit conditions, despite believing that credit constraints have contributed to supply-side weakness.

The Report downgraded the Bank’s growth forecast while maintaining a projection of below-target inflation in two years’ time. The mean two-year-ahead inflation expectation based on unchanged policy seems to be 1.8%, the same as in February, based on “eye-balling” the relevant fan chart. This raises the question of why more QE was not announced last week, as suggested by the “MPC-ometer” used here to predict the monthly decision.

One possible explanation is that the Bank felt constrained by another forced upward revision to its shorter-term inflation forecast – the mean projection for the second quarter of 2013, for example, has been raised from 1.65% to an estimated 2.3%. This, however, would be at odds with its usual focus on the two-year horizon, while the Report plays down the significance of the change.
The more likely reason for inaction is that the Bank is waiting for the full horror of the Eurozone crisis to be revealed before calibrating its next programme. Delay, moreover, leaves the door open to co-ordinated action with other central banks, for example in the event of a forced Greek exit from EMU – the Bank may believe this would deliver more “bang for the buck”.

Spanish emigration to Germany

2012-05-06T10:03:00.000+01:00

I enjoyed this article from the New York Times about Spanish unemployed moving to Germany. It still surprises me that there aren't more young Spaniards and Portuguese moving north. I know German isn't exactly an international language and styles of working are different but if the boys from Auf Wiedersehen, Pet could make it Germany then anyone can!
............

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/29/world/europe/germany-looks-to-southern-europe-to-fill-jobs.html

While much of southern Europe is struggling with soaring unemployment rates, a robust Germany is desperate for educated workers, and it has begun to look south for the solution.

In the last 18 months, it has recruited thousands of the Continent’s best and brightest to this postcard-perfect town and many others like it, a migration of highly qualified young job-seekers that could set back Europe’s stragglers even more, while giving Germany a further leg up.

Egypt: Husbands Can Have Sex With Dead Wives?

2012-04-27T15:01:00.001+01:00

Odd bunch in Egypt...

Egypt: Husbands Can Have Sex With Dead Wives?: [Capital FM]

As reported by Al Arabiya News, the women of Egypt are up in arms with two proposed controversial laws: legalizing the marriage of girls starting from the age of 14, and permitting husbands to have sex with their dead wives within the first 6 hours following their deaths.

Graham Turner urges Shrewsbury Town to seize the moment

2012-04-27T14:59:00.001+01:00

Come on the Shrews...

Graham Turner urges Shrewsbury Town to seize the moment: Shrewsbury Town’s history-seeking players were today urged to seize the moment and enjoy the occasion as they chase the promotion dream tomorrow.

Get a free pair of Hamburglar Sunglasses (limited time only!)

2012-04-26T23:15:00.000+01:00

Current Limited Offer

To Celebrate being fat, We are Giving Away Free Hamburglar Sunglasses To All Facebook Users!

(...not really)

Euro area and EU27 government deficit at 4.1% and 4.5% of GDP respectively

2012-04-23T17:05:00.001+01:00

Euro area and EU27 government deficit at 4.1% and 4.5% of GDP respectively: In 2011, the government deficit of both the euro area (EA17) and the EU27 decreased in absolute terms compared with 2010, while the government debt rose in both zones. In the euro area the government deficit to GDP ratio decreased from 6.2% in 2010 to 4.1% in 2011, and in the EU27 from 6.5% to 4.5%. In the euro area the government debt to GDP ratio increased from 85.3% at the end of 2010 to 87.2% at the end of 2011, and in the EU27 from 80.0% to 82.5%.

More David Bloom on CNN

2012-04-21T19:09:00.003+01:00

David Bloom on CNN talking about an addiction to liquidity and QE. This is a good forum for some classic lines.

Charlemagne: April showers on the euro

2012-04-20T16:43:00.001+01:00

Charlemagne: April showers on the euro:

LIKE Brussels, with its fickle weather, the euro crisis enjoyed a hint of summer but has now returned to wintry gloom. The sun shone after the European Central Bank took action to avert a credit crunch. Now the storm clouds are blowing in from Spain. Yields on Spanish bonds are rising dangerously, and Italian ones are close behind. Like Spain, Italy will miss its deficit target this year and next. Portugal may also need fresh support.For Eurocrats, these are but passing squalls. Summer will come, they say, so long as everybody sticks to the plans for deficit reduction. Spain is on track, insists Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the euro group of finance ministers. The IMF this week revised up its growth projections: the euro zone’s recession this year will be milder than it previously thought. So why the renewed panic?One reason is that markets are shifting their concern from deficits to growth. They fear that budget cuts are pushing countries ever deeper into recession. Investors may be as fickle as the weather, but the IMF, too, is warning against over-zealous austerity. Another reason is political mismanagement....

Central Africa: All Eyes On 'Bad Guy' Kony Lets Ugandan Army Walk

2012-04-20T16:38:00.001+01:00

Central Africa: All Eyes On 'Bad Guy' Kony Lets Ugandan Army Walk: [RNW Africa]
Kampala -
The massive spotlight the Kony 2012 campaign shines on LRA atrocities leaves indications of the Ugandan army's crimes in the shadow. Some locals are asking a logical question. If Kony goes to the International Criminal Court, what about President Museveni?

UK house prices now undervalued relative to rents

2012-04-19T17:21:00.001+01:00

UK house prices now undervalued relative to rents:
Reader's question: Have you repeated your national-accounts analysis of residential property yields recently? I'm referring to the long-term yield analysis you most recently did here (I think). Just wondering if this has changed at all over the past year. My guess is not (or possibly it's slightly higher). Do you have any thoughts?

The national accounts rental yield ended 2011 at an estimated 3.97% versus a long-run average of 3.62%, suggesting that house prices are undervalued by about 9% relative to rents – see first chart. The 2011 number is an estimate because ONS has yet to publish an end-2011 figure for the value of the housing stock.

A rise from 3.65% at the end of 2010 reflected an increase of 8.8% in actual and imputed rents last year (i.e. comparing calendars 2011 and 2010), with house prices flat (up by 0.1% between December 2010 and December 2011 according to the DCLG house price index, which is used to revalue the housing stock).

The housing stock to disposable income ratio remains far above its long-term average but is now 6% below its rising trend – second chart. This trend, of course, reflects the same supply / demand factors that have pushed up rents relative to income over the long run.

Polish people in the UK

2012-04-17T14:07:00.001+01:00

Polish people in the UK: Half a million Polish-born residents

Earnings by qualification

2012-04-17T14:06:00.003+01:00

Earnings by qualification: Av. pay difference for post GCSE education decreases

Young Shrewsbury Town duo earn deals

2012-04-17T14:06:00.001+01:00

Young Shrewsbury Town duo earn deals: Two Shrewsbury Town youngsters have earned professional contracts for next season.