Fearless Grain Marketing Plans - www.dailymarketminute.com Price Maker

http://halocommodities.com/5232014-morning-comments/

This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. This communication makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures or options.

Grain Market Comments 5-23-14

2014-05-23T06:57:00.002-07:00

Grain markets are called slightly firmer this morning after a slightly firmer overnight session that saw corn up 2 cents, KC wheat up 3, MPLS wheat up 4, CBOT wheat up 4, old crop beans up 5, and new crop beans up 2. At 8:05 outside markets have crude up 40 cents, the DOW mini is about unchanged, gold is near unchanged, and the US dollar is up a little with the cash index at 80.357.

Most feel that the strength overnight is a little profit taking ahead of the long weekend; as well as some risk premium ahead of the long weekend. Markets won’t open again until Monday night after today’s session closes. Personally with the volatile markets we have had; especially for beans it would surprise me at all to see beans see some profit taking that puts pressure on that market by the end of the day. We also have option expiration today as the June options expire.

I mentioned yesterday in the midday update phone call that nothing should really surprise us for a move in beans. Tight fundamental situations typically resolve rather violently; end users that need beans will have to do whatever it takes to get coverage; but once that coverage happens or they sense it can happen then bids can vanish. No one wants to be stuck with old crop beans at 2.50 a bushel premium to new crop beans. They will take everything they need; but if they can get to new crop and buy a couple bucks a bushel cheaper believe me that’s what they will try to do. Add to this the fact that beans still have a positive old crop headline story that continues to lead to fund buying interest and you have a rather volatile marketplace.

We are about a month away from when the funds really won’t have much ownership left in the July contract; so we should be nervous on when the tide turns. Bottom line is we need to be aware that we could see pressure on the markets (beans in particular), even if our fundamental situation hasn’t resolved. We could see a headline of more South American beans hitting the US and even if it isn’t change our fundamental situation it could be a catalyst that leads to fund selling and from what I hear they simply have too much July ownership.

Don’t get me wrong old crop beans still have plenty of potential but the price action and headlines are scary. We could be up a couple bucks more or give all of this rally and then some away. Just be prepared for a wild ride.

So far we haven’t seen corn, wheat, or even sunflowers really follow the strength that beans have had. The sunflower situation remains tight; but we just don’t have a lot of demand right now. It feels like we have way too many sunflowers in South Dakota which serves more of the birdseed market and not nearly enough in North Dakota.

Here is some more market info. The first is morning comments from Tregg Cronin with Halo Commodities

The below is from CHS Hedging Morning Highlights

Morning Highlights

By Joe Hofmeyer

Highlights

As of 7:00 AM CT: US dollar index is up .19%at 80.379, European Stoxx is up .12%, Nikkei closed up .87%, Hang Seng closed up .05%, crude oil is up 24 cents at $103.98 per barrel, and gold is down $1.50 at $1293.40 per ounce.
Dry weather in the Northwestern Midwest through Saturday will allow planting progress to continue at its rapid pace. The 6-10 day forecast shows improved chances of moisture in the Southern Midwest that will benefit newly emerged corn and soybeans. Rains will continue in the Southern Plains through May 27 relieving the drought stricken areas.
The northern tier of the Corn Belt is pushing hard to get crops planted ahead of crop insurance deadlines and rains that are expected to move in within the next 5 days.
Germany’s business confidence reading fell from 111.2 in April to 110.4 in May amid signs that growth in the country’s economy will slow this quarter. Germany is key to the euro area economic recovery efforts.
Vladimir Putin said Ukraine is in full-scale civil war after government troops suffered their worst losses in battles with separatists.

Corn

Rains benefitted Nebraska and Kansas yesterday, while the states of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin stayed dry allowing planting progress to continue in the areas that are furthest behind.
Even though good progress is being made, with corn planting behind in the North and additional rains in the forecast, it is likely that corn will lose some acres to either preventative plant or soybeans.
Old crop corn export sales were revealed at 20 million bushels yesterday by the USDA. We only need 11.8 million bushels weekly to hit current USDA projections.
Basis levels are steady to slightly better as producers are not moving grain with their focus on planting.
China will auction 3.5 mmt of corn from its temporary reserves on May 29, according to the National Grain & Oil Trade Center.
The CZ4/CH5 spread seems to be content to sit at slightly better than a 9 cent carry for the time being.

Outlook: Corn continues to reluctantly follow soybeans higher, but traders see no reason for the added risk premium at this time. Sideways trade is expected ahead of the long weekend. 1-2 higher to start.
Oilseeds

July soybeans put in a new contract high yesterday of $15.36 ¾, but settled the day at only $15.18 ¾. The front end of the soybean curve is once again showing strength overnight.
July soy-meal closed above $500 per ton for the first time yesterday, and has continued to move higher in overnight trade.
There is some chatter that processors are contemplating switching bids from the July to the August board.
Old crop soybean exports out of the U.S. were once again net positive yesterday at 6.04 million bushels. We simply cannot afford to continue to export soybeans with our current domestic balance sheet.
Talk of South American soybeans being imported into the U.S. continues, but quantifying the amount is proving difficult.
China will auction 300 tmt of soybeans from its temporary reserve on May 27, according to the National Grain & Oil Trade Center.

Outlook: Extremely tight domestic old crop supplies continue to result in explosive trade, as the market tries to figure out how, and if, imports will be able to connect the old and new crops. 5-8 higher.
Wheat

Rains will continue through May 27^th in the Southern Plains with general coverage of 2 inches according to Commodity Weather Group LLC.
Precipitation looks to hold off in the Northern spring wheat growing geographies until late in the weekend, which will allow planting to continue to advance in both the U.S. and Canada.
Old crop wheat (crop year ending May 31^st) exports yesterday were revealed at 5.2 million bushel. This is behind the needed weekly pace to hit USDA projections.
Kazakhstan agreed to sell 100 tmt of wheat to China for the 2014/15 crop year. Kazakhstan exported 10 tmt of wheat to China last year.
South Australian sub-soil moisture is adequate to excellent in most areas with producers gearing up to plant.

Outlook: Weather forecasts throughout the world continue to be closely watched by traders, but currently there are not enough problems to get anyone excited with a world balance sheet that is very comfortable. 2-4 higher.

Jeremey Frost

Grain Merchandiser

Midwest Cooperatives

800-658-5535

800-658-3670

605-295-3100 (cell)

605-258-2166 (fax)

jeremey.frost@chsinc.com

www.midwestcooperatives.com

http://grainmarketingplans.blogspot.com/

grain market comments

2014-05-21T07:10:00.003-07:00

Grain markets are called mixed this morning.

At 7:40 we have CBOT wheat near unchanged, corn near unchanged, MPLS wheat up 3-6, KC wheat up a penny, and soybeans up about 8 cents. DOW futures are firmer, crude is up about 70 cents, and the US dollar is slightly firmer.

The driver yesterday seemed to be fund selling and technical selling. But isn’t that nearly always the “reason” on down days? The answer is yes a lot of times it is and what that tells me is that the funds, charts, and money flow having a huge effect on our prices. Like it or not; it is just the way it is. They help create the liquidity that we need; it sucks on days when we see pressure on the prices for what they do. But that’s not my point.

My point is that we know the funds will help over extend price moves, we can become more knowledgeable on things such as charts and where the funds are sitting so we can better determine potential risks as well as rewards. It makes it challenging because of how prices move. Take wheat as example, did we really need to move up as much as we did the past few months? Did we need to correct as much as we have the last couple weeks? One could argue either way, if not both ways.

Weather continues to be a mixed bag, still very dry in the south; but very good moisture called for. Will it be too late? Is it a headline that leads to fund selling or another leg down? Overall forecasts appear to be wet and warm which would be ideal for grain that is in the ground. Still plenty of talk about planting issues in the Northern states; but bears will say their production doesn’t matter and bulls talk about all of the unplanted acres.

With the funds as long as they are if we do get everything planted what will it take to keep them long? To keep them from selling length?

Fundamentally demand is very strong for beans and corn. While we are so far away from being competitive in the wheat export world; at least for HRW that it is scary. The problem with the strong demand for corn and beans is that it isn’t what the market is focused on. The market is trying to determine supply and is a weather market. The longer we keep strong demand the better; but the thing that is most likely to move our markets today is weather and will be for the next several months as we determine how big our crops are.

Here is more market info from Tregg Cronin at Halo Commodities

http://halocommodities.com/5212014-morning-comments/

And the below market info is from CHS Hedging Morning Highlights

Morning Highlights

By Joe Hofmeyer

Highlights

As of 7:00 AM CT: US dollar index is unchanged at 80.0059, European Stoxx is up .23%, Nikkei closed down .24%, Hang Seng closed up .01%, crude oil up 85 cents at $103.18 per barrel, and gold is down $4.50 at $1290.10 per ounce.
Weather forecasts are still showing improvement in both the Southern Plains and the northern tier of the Midwest. Moisture replenishing rains are expected in the Southern Plains while the Upper Midwest is expected to be warmer and drier aiding planting efforts.
Russian billionaires are assembling at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum this week as they weigh the market fallout from Russian/Ukrainian tensions. Investments have continued to flow out of Russia throughout this situation.

Corn

July corn futures have moved lower the last 5 trading sessions, as advancing planting progress and adequate moisture weigh heavily.
Warmer temperatures this week are a major benefit to early crop development for areas that are planted.
Producer selling has been light with the focus continuing to be on planting the crop. Basis levels have been steady.
Industry participants are looking for another strong ethanol production number (920K barrels/day) this morning, as margin are very profitable and seasonal ethanol demand is strong.
After a cool and wet spring that has delayed planting, a Democratic Senator from North Dakota is calling on the U.S. Department of Agriculture to delay the May 25th crop insurance corn planting deadline that is in place for most North Dakota counties.

Outlook: July corn was not able to hold support at $4.75, adding more downside potential. Weather will continue to dictate price action, but the trade is feeling more comfortable with each passing day as more seed is put in ground. Mixed to start.
Oilseeds

The SN/SX inversion currently sits at $2.37 ¾. The contract high for this spread is $2.77 which was established in mid-April.
Eastern crush margins have fallen to 60-65 cents and western margins are down to 40-45 cents. Crush margins are getting close to not being able to cover variable costs.
Brazilian farmer selling is strong while Argentinean farmer selling is light with slow harvest progress.
Two additional Brazilian bean cargos are anticipated to land in U.S. ports later this week. With the addition of these 2 a total of 7 will now have come into the U.S. since April.
China bought 111 tmt of optional origin soybeans for the 2014/15 crop year yesterday.
China’s second soybean auction saw 82% of offered beans sold.

Outlook: Old crop volatility continues with July futures attempting to trade above $15.00 yesterday before falling off sharply. Uncertainty remains if we have enough old crop supplies/import to connect the old and new crops. Weather looks near ideal for planting in the week ahead. 5-8 higher.
Wheat

Spring wheat planting pace should continue to accelerate as we move further into the week.
Forecasters are calling for the first general rain in a number of weeks for the HRW region for Thursday into the weekend. Although the HRW crop is probably beyond the point of adding yield, these rains should help maintain what is already there.
There are yield concerns for Black Sea wheat, as temperatures are forecast to be above 90 degrees in the wheat growing regions of southeast Russia and Kazakhstan toward the end of the week. In some of these areas less than 20% of their normal rainfall has been received.

Outlook: Having two problem areas in the world (Southern Plains & Russia) should give traders a reason to put a bid back into the market. Weather models for these 2 areas will be watched closely, and can change quickly. 1 to 2 lower in Chicago and KC, 3-6 higher in Minneapolis.

Jeremey Frost

Grain Merchandiser

Closing Grain Market Comments 5-19-2014

2014-05-19T15:22:00.002-07:00

Grain markets closed mixed today with some rather volatile price swings.

When everything was done corn was down 6, KC wheat was up 1, MPLS wheat was down ½ of a cent, CBOT wheat was up ¼ of a cent, old crop beans up 20, new crop beans up 17, the US dollar near unchanged, crude up 50 cents, gold near unchanged, and the DOW closed up 21 points.

Nice strength in the soybean market; many called it technical bounce or a bounce off of support………..but maybe our tight balance sheet just showed up today??? New crop beans probably have more of a weather premium built in then does Dec corn; as we are still not half planted on beans while corn is about ¾ planted.

This afternoon we did have crop conditions/crop progress. Winter wheat conditions dropped 1 % in the G/E; with South Dakota dropping 5%.

Corn planting came in at 73% which was behind the estimate and slightly behind the 5 year average. Now is it low enough to get the bulls re-excited??? Probably not by itself; but it does mean that we have a fair amount of corn left to plant. Ball park in the 24-25 million acre area.

Spring wheat planting came in at 49% which was in line with estimates but well below the 68% on the 5 year average.

Soybeans came in at 33% planted; which was slightly below most of the estimates I have seen and is slightly below the 38% on average over the last 5 years.

Below is a link to CHS Hedging Recap of the Crop Progress/Conditions

https://www.chshedging.com/UserFiles/Documents/2014/Financial%20Markets%20and%20Reports/Crop%20Progress051914.pdf

The biggest thing that these updates do is help determine what weather means. If the crop isn’t in the ground and you have moisture in the forecast that would typically be good or supportive to prices. While once the crops are in the ground, rain makes grain. Right now I think the market has transitioned to rain makes grain for corn; while moisture is neutral to supportive prices for spring wheat and soybeans.

Overall the weather forecast does have most of the US wet and warm in the 6-10 day forecasts as well as the 8-14 day forecast. If the crop is planted; then it would be ideal. The forecast also has much of the HRW growing areas to get a decent amount of moisture in the 5-7 day models.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

The thing with weather that we have to keep in mind is that 10 different people can get 10 different forecasts; and 10 different people can have 10 different views on what the forecasts mean. It is really subject to how one views it and the forecasts change so often and so fast; that a lot of time it isn’t the actual forecast that means much; it’s what has or hasn’t changed in the forecast that matter as well as what actually happens versus the expectation.

I have had a lot of producers ask me if they missed the boat on pricing some of these grains. The reality is that yes we probably missed a good opportunity to take some risk off the table; but there are far too many unknown factors to determine how things will shake out on prices several months from now.

As for the grains in specific it feels to me that wheat is a longer term sleeper; that needs a little demand or needs to see the combines roll down south. I liked today’s price action; but it is still unknown what direction the next move in wheat will be. It does have potential if you look at the US balance sheets(for some of the classes) but the world balance sheets look to have plenty. So does wheat really need to go higher if we don’t find more export demand???? It certainly can; but won’t we need at least some catalyst to get the fund wanting to get long again??

As for corn for me it feels like we should see another weather scare at some time and seasonal rally; but when I look at the forecasts and how we are sitting I question it. The other thing that I question is will demand stay as strong as it has the past year or so? Probably even more then that is can the demand growth keep up? I wonder if some of the buyers in the world where so empty after the tight supplies of 2011 and 2012 that they have refilled and hence that is why our export demand has been so solid this year. Are we close to having the empty pipelines caused by the 2011/2012 crops re-filled????

Corn demand is strong, but the position that the funds have makes me nervous. I think we might need to give them a positive headline if we want to keep them as long as they are and we risk that that headline doesn’t come and they slowly get shorter and shorter. Not good if the American Producer is as undersold as some think. Would take more than a lot of demand to offset selling pressure by both the funds and the producers. But the positive for nearly all of these crops as they are a long way from the in the bin; heck overall when you look at corn, beans, spring wheat, and other grains like sunflowers I am not sure that we are much more than 50% planted. So some sort of weather scare is possible; I just don’t see it how I look at the present forecasts. Good thing those forecasts changed rather regularly.

Basis for grains in general has a steady tone to it. Producer selling has slowed down by in my shoes I am not getting ran over with demand from end users either. Plus locally we continue to struggle with the rail situation and are nearing a big unknown time with the new RCPE rail road taking over our rail line in the next few weeks. I believe that longer term it will benefit the producers in our area; but I can’t honestly know how the transition will effect operations in the short run; I know intentions are very good.

Sunflower market in general remains very tight; but buyers also show little to no interest right now. Business really needs to pick up for the birdseed guys.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Grain Market Comments 5-13-2014

2014-05-13T06:27:00.000-07:00

Grain markets are called mixed to better this a.m. on a little turn around Tuesday from yesterdays weak action; at 7:30 corn is up 2-3 cents, KC wheat is up a penny, MPLS wheat is up a penny, CBOT wheat is down 2, old crop beans are up 9-10, and new crop beans are 4 cents a bushel higher. Outside markets have crude up 70 cents a barrel, the US dollar firmer with the cash index at 80.093, DOW mini futures are up about 20 points, and gold is down a couple bucks at 1294.20.

Yesterdays weakness seemed to be follow up from Fridays USDA report and the fact that the market was expecting big progress in corn yesterday afternoon. They got that as we jumped ahead of the 5 year average; we still have plenty of corn acres let to plant so weather is still important but overall headlines are slowly turning from Rain prevents planting to rain makes grain. Just keep that in mind; what once caused the market to go up could cause pressure on our markets in the weeks ahead.

We are probably a little early for that but do keep in mind that we are slowly going to be turning around what info means to market price action; we too much rain until crops planted is friendly; but once crops are planted it because very bearish in a hurry. The headline that the funds see of corn 59% planted; above the 5 year average isn’t a headline that should lead to tons of buying at this time.

Spring wheat planting came in at 34%; which is well below average; but actually ahead of the 2011 pace, close to the 2009, and 2013 pace. The 5 year average there is really skewed by the 91% in 2012. The 5 day forecast also looks like plenty of progress could be made in ND

Soybean planting came in at 20%; which is in line with the 5 year average.

Winter wheat crop conditions did drop 1 % in the G/E and that crop continues to struggle.

Below is a link to CHS Hedging recap of crop progress

https://www.chshedging.com/UserFiles/Documents/2014/Research/USDA%20Crop%20Progress/Crop%20Progress051214.pdf

Basis overall still feels weaker as in my shoes it feels like we have more supply then demand; plus we have a rail situation that adds some volatility to the cash prices. Especially locally where we will change railroads in less than a month. In my shoes I then have to ask myself how will the new rail line be? What type of car volume can I plan on or not plan on? Does there become a point where we have everything bought that we can physically handle given the rail info that we know today? Logically the closer we or competitors on this line get to that covered point the more pressure one should expect on local basis. Add to that what appears to be a big winter wheat crop on the way and the fact that both producers and elevators need to be prepared and it is easy to see what local cash prices and basis could see some pressure as we move forward. Don’t get me wrong my talks with our new rail line leave me very encouraged on performance; but in the back of my mind I also realize there can be a thin line between what actually happens and what they intent to happen.

I think one thing we really need to watch out for is what the funds will do. Do we have some risk that the headline leads to them deciding to get short corn again? Notice their position today versus how short they happened to be last fall harvest.

https://www.chshedging.com/UserFiles/Documents/2014/Research/CFTC%20Commitments%20of%20Traders/CFTC050914.pdf

Here is a link with some more info on the fund position; it is from Tregg Cronin with Halo Commodities. He talks about the “smart money versus dumb money”; this also has his morning comments.

http://halocommodities.com/5132014-morning-comments/

Lastly for more market info this is from CHS Hedging Morning Highlights.

Morning Highlights

By Steve Wagner

Highlights

EU foreign ministers increased sanctions on Russia by freezing assets of oil and gas producers from Russia, citing the Kremlin’s continued encroachment into the Ukraine. In response Gazprom gave Kiev 24 hours to pay their delinquent gas bill or risk being shut off. In Donetsk, Igor Girkin, known as Strelok or “the Shooter” ordered Ukrainian troops to submit to his command or leave the region within 48 hours. After that time the rebels will begin a “anti-terrorist operation.”
US dollar index is up .188 points this morning to 80.086.
June crude oil is up $.61 per barrel to $101.20 per barrel.
Gold is down $4.30 per ounce trading at $1,291.50 per ounce.
Dow Jones equity futures are up 33.00 points trading at 16,688.00. The Hang Seng rose .4% 22,347.20; the Shanghai composite dropped .3% at 2,045.97. The Nikkei was up 1.9 % trading at 14,421.60, after a weaker yen boosted Japanese exporters.

Corn

Corn opened higher Monday night as traders took profits Monday. Solid exports are also supporting the market.
Planting progress stands at 59% vs the 5 year average of 58%, however the upper Midwest, Mn., ND, WI. and MI. are all 20% behind or more.
There were no corn deliveries overnight with the next date March 7^th.
Nonghyup Feed bought 60 tmt of corn paying $1.7796 over Chicago Dec. futures.
Taiwan purchased 60 tmt of corn from Mitsui for shipment July 25 through August 14^th to ship from Brazil.

Outlook: 2 to 4 cents higher on solid exports and turn around Tuesday.

Oilseeds

July soybeans opened higher overnight as demand for soybean meal once more pulled the market higher, exports remain above USDA projections.
There were no soybean deliveries today with the next date April 23^rd, soybean meal had 2 deliveries with the next available date April 29^th, in soybean oil there were 117 deliveries with the next available date May 6^th.
Planting progress exceeded expectations at 20%, the 5 year average is 21%.
No prices on palm oil due to a Malaysian holiday, trade resumes Wednesday.
Soybeans on the Dalian exchange were 27 ½ Yuan trading at 4,420 Yuan.
Soybean exports to China should pick up according to Liu Xianwu, general manager of China’s Cereal and Oils business, citing better demand for poultry and aquaculture.

Outlook: old crop 5 to 10 cents higher led by better demand for soybean meal - new crop 5 to 8 cents higher.

Wheat

Chicago July wheat opened with higher overnight profit taking. However, it moved lower as trade progressed on improved planting and weaker Matif wheat.
There were 111 Chicago wheat deliveries for today with the next available date May 8^th. There were no KC wheat deliveries with the next date May 9^th.
Planting progress was reported at 34%, up from 26% but still behind the 5 year average of 53%. Minnesota and North Dakota are lagging the most at 8%and 11% respectively.
Winter wheat conditions deteriorated to 42% poor and very poor vs last week’s 38% and last year’s 39%. Good to excellent dropped to 30% vs last year’s 31%.

Outlook: steady to 2 cents higher on planting concerns and deteriorating crop conditions.

Jeremey Frost

Grain Merchandiser

Midwest Cooperatives

800-658-5535

800-658-3670

605-295-3100 (cell)

605-258-2166 (fax)

http://halocommodities.com/592014-morning-comments/

Closing Grain Market Comments USDA Report Day 5-9-14

2014-05-09T14:45:00.000-07:00

Grain markets closed mixed after the release of the USDA report.

When everything was said and done old crop corn was down 9, new crop corn was down 13, KC wheat was off 14, MPLS wheat was off 10, CBOT wheat was off 13, old crop beans up 17, new crop beans up 2, the DOW was up 32, the US dollar stronger at 79.869 on the cash index; while both gold and crude ended near unchanged.

All about the USDA report……….below is a recap; this is from the Van Trump report.

US New-Crop Corn Production

	Today's 2014/15	USDA 2014/15	Avg. Guess	USDA 2013/14
Planted Acres	91.7 million	91.7 (March)	91.7	95.4
Harvested Acres	84.3 million	84.6 (Feb Outlook)	84.4	87.7
Yield	165.3 bpa	165.3 (Feb Outlook)	161.4	158.8

US New-Crop Soybean Production

	Today's 2014/15	USDA 2014/15	Avg. Guess	USDA 2013/14
Planted Acres	81.5 million	81.5 (March)	81.5	76.5
Harvested Acres	80.5 million	78.5 (Feb Outlook)	80.1	75.9
Yield	45.2 bpa	45.2 (Feb Outlook)	45.2	43.3

US 2013/14 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Apr.	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses	USDA 2013
Corn	1.146	1.331	1.314	1.231 - 1.435	0.821
Soybeans	0.130	0.135	0.134	0.125 - 0.174	0.141
Wheat	0.583	0.583	0.590	0.570 - 0.630	0.718

US 2014/15 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Feb	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	1.726	2.1	1.672	1.295 - 2.354
Soybeans	0.330	.285	0.307	0.200 - 0.464
Wheat	0.540	.587	0.553	0.425 - 0.652

US Wheat Production

	USDA 5/9	USDA June	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses	USDA 2013
All Winter	1.403	1.509	1.468	1.312 - 1.591	1.534
Hard Red Winter	0.746	0.781	0.782	0.610 - 0.870	0.744
Soft Red Winter	0.447	0.509	0.467	0.409 - 0.570	0.565
White Winter	0.209	0.219	0.220	0.188 - 0.268	0.225
All Wheat	1.963	2.080	2.050	1.891 - 2.182	2.130

World 2013/14 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Apr.	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	168.42	158.00	157.31	149.45 - 161.20
Soybeans	66.98	69.42	69.77	67.30 - 73.00
Wheat	186.53	186.68	185.95	181.91 - 189.00

World 2014/15 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Apr.	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	181.73	NA	159.41	149.90 - 175.00
Soybeans	82.23	NA	80.34	67.00 - 95.00
Wheat	187.42	NA	184.53	178.00 - 200.00

South American Production 2014

	USDA 5/9	USDA April	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Argentina Corn	24.00	24.00	23.86	22.30 - 23.86
Argentina Soybeans	54.00	54.00	54.40	53.50- 57.00
Brazil Corn	75.00	72.00	72.10	70.50 - 74.00
Brazil Soybeans	87.50	87.50	87.23	86.50 - 87.50

Overall report was bullish old crop corn and beans; bearish new crop corn and beans. World numbers bearish across the board. US wheat numbers friendly on production; but carryout numbers in line with estimates.

After we get a report we open the “what’s next” question. For old crop corn some ask are we overestimating the increase in corn exports and old crop corn demand? Basis and cash markets sure feel like we have more than a 1.1 billion bushel corn carryout.
Are we curbing soybean demand for old crop?

Many ask how can the USDA start at 165 on corn yield and 45 on soybean yield? I guess the answer is because they can; realistically we could be well below that; but there is also a chance that if mother nature is nice that we come in higher than that when everything is said and done. One big positive I took from today’s report is just how much demand has increase; it wasn’t too long ago that many talked about an old crop corn carryout near 2 billion bushels ( I should mentioned that it still feels that way to me; but that is probably due to local production along with the railroad issues causing the back log). Maybe demand for grains is simply strong enough to offset big supplies?

Bulls now can argue that corn demand could be better in the coming year; plus they have plenty of room to take the 165 yield lower. The USDA has 2014/15 corn usage off by 213 million bushels versus this present year’s projection. Now if that is flat and say yields drop to 155; (which might be a better starting spot) You drop 2015 corn carryout to under a billion bushels again in a hurry; close to 700 million. Bottom line is the headline for new crop corn today is very bearish; but the reality is we could easily end up with a bull market; just depends on mother nature and demand. I do thing we have some risk that the June stocks report finds more old crop corn and in the meantime the funds might turn sellers because of the charts and the headline of a big percentage increase versus this year. Reality is our balance sheet situation for new crop corn and beans is no more known today then it was a month ago.

First thing that needs to be done is determine production and thus supply; realistically we should have a good clear idea for a couple months on that. If we don’t have issues in weather I could see the funds turning sellers because of the headlines; if the funds do turn sellers that might give us lower prices and thus increase demand. Making the markets even that more volatile should we not hit the 165 corn yield or the 45 bu soybean yield.

Bean situation for new crop is very similar; can we really think our carryout is 2-3 times what it has been the past several years? Well today it is at least in the headlines; but the reality is we have no clue what bean yield could be; nor do we know much many soybeans China might use should we actually have them for sale.
One thing that is scary is the world numbers; but there again how can we have a real forecast that has much accuracy this early in the game?

As for wheat I have to wonder what it takes to continue the rally; with winter wheat production coming in below estimates have we priced the crop issues in HRW country into the market? Where it sits today is that wheat needs some more planting delays in ND to get the wheat bulls back interested. Longer term the wheat balance sheet is fairly tight. If wheat demand can stay flat year over year we do get the wheat balance sheet very tight in a hurry. As a matter of a fact if you just keep usage flat our wheat carryout drops to a tighter number then it was in 2007/08. Keep in mind it is very unrealistic for us to feed the same amount of wheat we did last year unless the price of corn versus wheat really changes. Now exports on the other hand; should issues develop overseas perhaps we can see exports closer to the present year numbers instead of being decrease by 230 million bushels like the USDA has forecasted?

If the USDA has given us a good definition of wheat production; then the job of the market is to see if it needs to find demand or curb demand; and I am not sure which one it needs to do at these prices levels. I do know that the wheat headline of an increase in world wheat carryout versus last year has to be a blow the bulls considering the fact that US production was below the estimates.

Overall markets did take it on the chin today; but the old crop corn carryout (should it be accurate) should give some hope to higher prices and at the very least it should have increased the bet or importance of the weather going forward. Personally I still want to practice good risk management; realizing that we have had a decent rally that should probably be rewarded for some of the grains, and realize the risk of the fund position, risk of weather being ideal, and the risk of the focus turning towards the world balance sheets which in print are ample.
Elsewhere in the market basis continues to feel weak as most buyers simply don’t have tons of interest. Birdseed market also feels soft as business just hasn’t picked up. Most buyers are no longer threatening the huge discounts for late shipments like they did a few months ago as some no longer need product or their program has ended.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Thanks

USDA Numbers

2014-05-09T11:27:00.000-07:00

Bullish old crop corn..........bearish new crop

2013-14 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels)
May Average High Low April 2012-13
Corn 1.146 1.316 1.435 1.231 1.331 0.821
Soybeans 0.130 0.132 0.146 0.125 0.135 0.141
Grain Sorghum 0.019 0.019 0.023 0.017 0.019 0.015
Wheat 0.583 0.586 0.633 0.570 0.583 0.718
2014-15 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels)
May Average High Low
Corn 1.726 1.618 2.354 1.017
Soybeans 0.330 0.300 0.418 0.200
Grain Sorghum 0.024 0.023 0.030 0.015
Wheat 0.540 0.540 0.619 0.425
2014-15 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (Billion Bushels)
May Average High Low 2013-14
All Wheat 1.963 2.037 2.181 1.891 2.130
All Winter Wheat 1.403 1.454 1.591 1.312 1.534
HRW 0.746 0.766 0.841 0.610 0.744
SRW 0.447 0.466 0.569 0.409 0.565
White 0.209 0.224 0.288 0.188 0.268
2013-14 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)
May Avg. High Low April 2012-13
Corn 168.42 157.80 161.20 156.00 158.00 134.40
Soybeans 66.98 68.70 73.00 67.30 69.42 57.87
Wheat 186.53 185.70 187.30 181.90 186.68 176.60
2014-15 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)
May Avg. High Low
Corn 181.73 160.10 175.00 149.50
Soybeans 82.23 80.90 95.00 72.00
Wheat 187.42 183.70 191.00 178.00
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons)
2014-15 2013-14
May May April
Canada wheat 28.5 37.5 37.5
Ukraine wheat 20.0 22.3 22.3
Brazil corn 74.0 75 72.0
Ukraine corn 26.0 30.9 30.9
Brazil soybeans 91.0 87.5 87.5
Argentine soybeans 54.0 54 54.0

Morning Comments from Tregg Cronin with Halo Commodities

2014-05-09T07:03:00.004-07:00

5/9/2014 Morning Comments

Good Morning, Outside Markets as of 6:00am: Dollar Index up 0.2220 at 79.5800; Euro down 0.00550 at 1.37970; S&P’s are down 2.75 at 1869.50; Dow futures are down 19.00 at 16,491.00; 10-yr futures are unchanged at 125’ 03.5; The Nikkei closed up 0.25% at 14,199.59; The DAX is down 0.26% at 9,582.47; The IBEX-35 […]

Read More

Opening Grain Market Comments ahead of USDA report 5-9-2014

2014-05-09T06:51:00.002-07:00

Grain Markets are called mixed this morning as they await for the USDA report that will be out at 11; when the overnight session ended we had corn off 1 ½ cents, KC wheat down 7, MPLS wheat down 6, CBOT wheat down 7, old crop beans down 2, and new crop beans up 2. Outsides at 8:10 have the US Dollar stronger up nearly 400 ticks at 79.80 on the June US Dollar Futures, crude is up 60 cents a barrel, gold is up 2 bucks an ounce, and the DOW Mini Futures are pointing towards a lower start of about 12 points on the DOW.

Today is all about the USDA report; at least until it happens. Depending what the report says it will tell us things like how important weather should be; maybe if the market needs to add more unknown fear premium or take it away.

I don’t know what the report will say; but I would recommend knowing the possibilities and being comfortable for those unknown possibilities. For some that might mean having some sales done or protection on ahead of the report; for those it might mean doing nothing. Every marketing plan is different; so the only recommendation can be find a way to be comfortable.

Here are the estimates for the report; this comes from the Van Trump Report.

US 2013/14 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Apr.	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses	USDA 2013
Corn	???	1.331	1.314	1.231 - 1.435	0.821
Soybeans	???	0.135	0.134	0.125 - 0.17 5	0.141
Wheat	???	0.583	0.5 90	0.570 - 0.63 0	0.718

US 2014/15 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Feb	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	2.1	1.672	1.295 - 2. 3 54
Soybeans	???	.285	0.307	0.200 - 0.464
Wheat	???	.587	0.553	0.425 - 0.652

US Wheat Production

	USDA 5/9	USDA June	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses	USDA 2013
All Winter	???	1.509	1.468	1.312 - 1.591	1.534
Hard Red Winter	???	0.781	0.782	0.610 - 0.870	0.744
Soft Red Winter	???	0.509	0.467	0. 409 - 0. 570	0. 56 5
White Winter	???	0.219	0.2 20	0.188 - 0.268	0.225
All Wheat	???	2.080	2.0 50	1.891 - 2.182	2.130

World 2013/14 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Apr.	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	158.00	157.31	149.45 - 161.20
Soybeans	???	69.42	69.77	67.30 - 73.00
Wheat	???	186.68	185.95	181.91 - 189.00

World 2014/15 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Apr.	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	NA	159.41	149.90 - 175.00
Soybeans	???	NA	80.34	67.00 - 95.00
Wheat	???	NA	184.53	178.00 - 200.00

South American Production 2014

	USDA 5/9	USDA April	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Argentina Corn	???	24.00	23.86	22.30 - 23.86
Argentina Soybeans	???	54.00	54.40	53.50- 57.00
Brazil Corn	???	72.00	72.10	70.50 - 74.00
Brazil Soybeans	???	87.50	87.23	86.50 - 87.50

As mentioned the market will trade the USDA report for a little bit but then it should go back to trying to define production. It is really early to define row crop production and really probably to early to know for sure what HRW production will be; but once the market can define production it can then determine if it needs to move higher to curb demand or lower to increase demand. In the meantime as it determines crop sizes it should add a little fear premium or weather premium; that’s is part of the reason corn has had a strong seasonal tendency to get weaker after the fourth of July.

Basis continues to be weaker locally; part of that is due to the unknowns of the takeover regarding this rail line. Also the rail roads in general have made good progress; now many elevators are having low inventory and not looking to load trains out. Freight costs have went down for spot; but new crop freight is still very high. Look for basis to be very choppy and continue to be highly impacted by what the railroad does or doesn’t do. Overall it feels like our area has more supply then demand; and most of our local ethanol plants seem to be covered until August; some later.

Below is more market info

This is from Tregg Cronin with Halo Commodities……… good read.

The below is from CHS Hedging Morning Highlights

Morning Highlights

By Richard Plackemeier

Highlights

USDA May S&D report out today at 11:00 a.m. CST. This report should include the first 2014/15 crop production estimates from USDA.
Rains moving across the Mississippi River valley this morning.Wet conditions for Minnesota and the Dakotas are generating some concern that planting of wheat and corn will be delayed.
US dollar index is up .214 points this morning to 79.656.June Crude oil is up +.37 to $100.63.Dow Jones equity futures are down -21.00 early on.

Corn

Average market estimate for May report 2013/14 corn carryout 1.314 bil bu Carryout for 2014/15 estimated 1.672 bil bu.Range from 1.295-2.354 bil bu.
USDA outlook forum in February used 14/15 corn yield of 163.5 bpa in initial forecasts.
Many market watchers expect Monday’s crop progress planting estimate to come in 50% to 60% complete.
Ukraine corn planting is estimated to be 76% complete.

Outlook: the US currently has 44.17 mil tons of corn exports now on the books, versus USDA’s last projection of 44.45 mil tons. So the balance scales are about even. A few corn cancellations showing up this week, along with questions from the pork feeding sector may be the key to watch for any major old crop adjustments in US corn carryout. The market will quickly shift focus to new crop yield potential once this crop is in the ground.

Oilseeds

China intends to offer up to 300k tons of beans out of state reserves next week. The government has said up to 3.0 mil tons in total may be offered over the next several months.
Average market estimate for May report 2013/14 bean carryout 134 mil bu.Carryout for 2014/15 estimated 307 mil bu. Range from 200-464 mil bu.
USDA outlook forum in February used 14/15 bean yield of 45.2 bpa.
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is projecting Argentine bean production at 55.5 mil tons, versus previous estimate of 54.5 mil.

Outlook: with US bean stocks poised to show another tight number, the market will try to balance coming imports from Brazil and a potential building world supply for 2014/15.

Wheat

Jordan is tendering for up to 100k tons of optional origin milling wheat.
Trade expectations for May wheat production forecast: all wheat2.046 bil bu., HRW 782 mil, SRW 467 mil, SWW 219 mil, all winter wheat 1.468 bil bu.
This week’s rain event was mainly less than needed, as rains were limited to mostly northern HRW areas and parts of southern/central Oklahoma. The driest areas again missed any significant moisture.

Outlook: KC wheat futures have rallied significantly this week on production concerns. HRW spreads to SRW and HRS have increased markedly, and continue to keep users and buyers looking for alternatives.

Jeremey Frost

Grain Merchandiser

Midwest Cooperatives

800-658-5535

800-658-3670

605-295-3100 (cell)

605-258-2166 (fax)

closing comments 5-8-2014

2014-05-08T15:27:00.002-07:00

Grain markets closed mixed today in a choppy trading session ahead of the USDA report that is out on Friday.

When everything was said and done we had corn up 2, KC wheat up 1, MPLS wheat down 1, CBOT wheat down 3, old crop soybeans up 23, and new crop beans up 7.

A couple things I see in the market place; first off it feels like the funds still want to own grains; next is we have a lot of fear in the market place due to weather and crop size, and lastly we have the market awaiting the report that is out on Friday.

As for the report here are the estimates;

This comes from the Van Trump Report

May USDA Report is out tomorrow at 11:00am CST. Below are the estimates:
US 2013/14 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Apr.	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses	USDA 2013
Corn	???	1.331	1.314	1.231 - 1.435	0.821
Soybeans	???	0.135	0.134	0.125 - 0.17 5	0.141
Wheat	???	0.583	0.5 90	0.570 - 0.63 0	0.718

US 2014/15 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Feb	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	2.1	1.672	1.295 - 2. 3 54
Soybeans	???	.285	0.307	0.200 - 0.464
Wheat	???	.587	0.553	0.425 - 0.652

US Wheat Production

	USDA 5/9	USDA June	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses	USDA 2013
All Winter	???	1.509	1.468	1.312 - 1.591	1.534
Hard Red Winter	???	0.781	0.782	0.610 - 0.870	0.744
Soft Red Winter	???	0.509	0.467	0. 409 - 0. 570	0. 56 5
White Winter	???	0.219	0.2 20	0.188 - 0.268	0.225
All Wheat	???	2.080	2.0 50	1.891 - 2.182	2.130

World 2013/14 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Apr.	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	158.00	157.31	149.45 - 161.20
Soybeans	???	69.42	69.77	67.30 - 73.00
Wheat	???	186.68	185.95	181.91 - 189.00

World 2014/15 Ending Stocks

	USDA 5/9	USDA Apr.	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	NA	159.41	149.90 - 175.00
Soybeans	???	NA	80.34	67.00 - 95.00
Wheat	???	NA	184.53	178.00 - 200.00

South American Production 2014

	USDA 5/9	USDA April	Avg. Guess	Range of Guesses
Argentina Corn	???	24.00	23.86	22.30 - 23.86
Argentina Soybeans	???	54.00	54.40	53.50- 57.00
Brazil Corn	???	72.00	72.10	70.50 - 74.00
Brazil Soybeans	???	87.50	87.23	86.50 - 87.50

I don’t think anyone is really smart enough to outguess the USDA; many can have good theories and explanations as to what could and maybe should happen; but I have always found that you simply can’t outguess the USDA and there logic. You can be right some of the time; maybe even most of the time; but not all of the time. So what I look for into a USDA report is what are the possible risks and rewards. Is the market leaning too far bearish or bullish. What is the market expecting? What has the price done leading up to the USDA report?

The thing that sticks out to me as a possible risk on this report has to be the world wheat carryout numbers and wheat production. Mainly because of the rally we have had; I think a big 2014/15 world wheat number towards the top end of the guess could lead to a massive sell off. In regards to wheat production it has seemed to me that many times the USDA has always been slow at lowering production numbers.

Here is link to Tregg Cronin’s Morning Comments for Halo Commodities………at the bottom he shares some good thoughts for the USDA report that is out on Friday. http://halocommodities.com/582014-morning-comments/

Jeremey Frost

Grain Merchandiser

Midwest Cooperatives

800-658-5535

800-658-3670

605-295-3100 (cell)

605-258-2166 (fax)

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/free/news/template1&product=/ag/news/topstories&vendorReference=0353b2fa-34a2-481b-912d-1cb46058ad3a&paneContentId=70109&paneParentId=70043

Market Comments from Tregg Cronin with Halo Commodities

2014-05-08T07:07:00.002-07:00

Below are market comments from Tregg Cronin with Halo Commodities

Outside Markets as of 5:50am: Dollar Index down 0.1130 at 79.0890; Euro is up 0.00250 at 1.39400; S&P’s are up 0.25 at 1874.50; Dow futures are up 19.00 at 16,487.00; 10-yr futures are down 0.04%; The Nikkei closed up 0.93%; The DAX is up 0.44% at 9,563.21; The IBEX-35 is up 0.76% at 10,493.30; The Russian MICEX is down 0.42% at 1,357.74; Gold is up $3.00 at $1291.90; Copper is up $0.40 at $303.65; Crude Oil is down $0.41 at $100.38; Heating Oil is down $0.0131 at $2.9144; Paris Milling Wheat is off €0.75 at €206.50.

Global equities are mostly better this morning after improved Chinese trade data, and comments from Fed Chair Yellen suggested low interest rates will continue until the US job market is healthy. China’s exports in April rose 0.9% from the previous year following a 6.6% decline in March, and imports grew slightly after a contraction in March. Russian President Putin is also on the tape this morning with a slightly softer tone on the confrontation with the West, something stocks were taking at least brief solace in. Putin has endorsed plans for fresh elections in Ukraine, and called on pro-Russian militans in eastern Ukraine to delay referendums on autonomy. In the US today, unemployment claims are expected to decline 19,000 to 325,000, just offsetting last week’s 14,000 claim jump.

A busy radar this morning with systems............................

to keep reading and get Tregg's comments click here www.halocommodities.com/582014-morning-comments/

http://halocommodities.com/582014-morning-comments/

KC Wheat Tour - from Jenna Roe at CHS Hedging

2014-05-05T11:05:00.003-07:00

Below is from Jenna Roe at CHS Hedging; she was on the KC Wheat Tour last week.

Grain Market Comments 4-30-14

2014-04-30T06:47:00.001-07:00

Grain markets are called easier today on a little pull back from the recent strength. When the overnight session ended we had corn off 4 cents, KC wheat off 1, MPLS wheat off 2, CBOT wheat off 2, old crop beans off 5, and new crop beans off 3. At 8:05 outside markets have the DOW mini futures pointing towards a start near unchanged, the US dollar is off about 260 ticks with the Cash US Dollar Index at 79.548, crude is off about 1.20, and gold is off about a buck.

Yesterdays strength came from the KC wheat tour, which showed an average yield of 34.7, versus 43.8 last year, and 53.4 the year before. They estimated the crop 6-8 weeks from harvest. So that opens up the question is the tour using max potential just because of the methodology they are having to use to calculate?

The other question this tour will end up bringing up is how big is the crop and at what price level has the deteriorated wheat crop been priced into the market? A smaller wheat crop isn’t going to create any extra demand and that’s really what wheat has missed for some time. Demand; the US getting large exports. Don’t get me wrong wheat does have a lot of potential but we have to have some caution as to when the news that we are trading today becomes old news, priced into the market.

Technically some of the wheat charts have had some upside breakouts; but then again wheat has always been famous for head fakes.

Here are a couple links with some more info on the tour

http://grainmarketingplans.blogspot.com/2014/04/wheattour14-tweets.html

To follow the tour on twitter use #wheattour14

The other thing that continues to effect the market has been mother nature and planting progress. Which continues to be a struggle for corn and beans in most areas. Many are talking about prevent plant and that is probably a little early; but it has to be on the radar and it is a concern; but we also have to remember that the last USDA acre estimate was on the low side (according to many) and many thought we could increase overall acres.

In my opinion the cool weather is more of an issue then perhaps some of the moisture. The one thing we really will have to watch will continue to be North Dakota and what they end up with for spring wheat acres and sunflower acres. I have heard of a lot of concern from that area and that could lead to the crush plants getting a little more aggressive on sunflower prices.

Speaking of sunflowers I do have some buyers showing interest in some old crop hi oleic’s. If you have any please give me a call.

The birdseed market continues to be soft and business has just slowed down. It doesn’t help that the railroad situation was so bad for so long that buyers screamed for cars. Then it felt like we gave them 2 months supply in about a week period. Did we miss some business along the way? Did the rail situation cause missed demand for any of the grains? I guess only time will tell but in my opinion we have to realize that there should be some risk in our upcoming stocks reports just because grain that wanted to move wasn’t able to and its not like we can magically get back that piece of business that might have been missed.

Also we are now offering a new crop ACT OF GOD program on millet; please give us a call for more info on that.

As for “generic” grain marketing I don’t have any problem rewarding a rally; but it really is going to depend on everyone’s unique situation. There are way too many unknowns right now; which has added some premium to our markets; but bottom line is we need to all know the potential both upside and downside in these markets. In my opinion if cards lay right there is a huge amount of both potential and risk in nearly all of these grains. So find a way to get yourself comfortable for the ride.

Here is some more market information from CHS Hedging Morning Highlights

Morning Highlights

By Phyllis Nystrom

Highlights

As of 7:04 am CT: US dollar index down .153 at 79.655, overseas markets mixed/lower, crude oil down $1.28 at $100.00, ULSD down 2 cents, gasoline down 1 ¾ cents, and natural gas down 2 ¼ cents.
Chances of showers stay in the forecast for the Midwest through Friday with temps staying below normal.The southwestern Plains continue dry.
Markets have backed off overnight as weather effects may be built into prices for the time being.Nothing new from Ukraine.
The Federal Reserve is expected to lower their bond purchasing program by another $10 billion per month as their meeting concludes today.No interest rate changes are anticipated.
Effective May 1^st, the new daily trading limit in corn will be 35 cents, $1.00 in beans, 45 cents for CBOT wheat, 50 cents for KC wheat, 3 cents in bean oil and $30 in bean meal.Limits will be recalculated in six months.

Corn

Corn is off to a weaker start after yesterday’s planting delayed induced rally to a three week high.First support in the July contract is $5.08, resistance $5.24 ¼.
Bulls need to be fed daily and corn is due for a breather, it has closed higher in five of the last six sessions.
There were no corn deliveries against the May contract.
The CK/CN is 5 ¼ - 5 ¾ carry, continuing to be rangebound from 5 – 6 ¼ cents.

Outlook: Corn is ripe for a correction lower on profit-taking and as near term weather may be factored into current price levels.

Oilseeds

Beans began the evening session on the plus side, but faded after midnight and have traded within yesterday’s range.The uptrend remains intact but prices are approaching overbought conditions and could be due for a correction lower.
There were no bean deliveries against the May.The estimate was zero to 250 contracts.
Meal deliveries were zero versus estimates for zero to 20 contracts.
Oil deliveries were 2,596 versus estimates for 350-2,500 contracts.Last date April 23.
The SK/SN inverse is widening, trading out to 8 ¼ -11 cents overnight.

Outlook: The uptrend continues until the market has more confidence nearby supply issues are being met; however, without fresh bullish news we could see a setback.

Wheat

The results from the first day of the annual HRW wheat tour projected an average yield in northern Kansas at 34.7 BPA versus last year’s tour estimate of 43.8 BPA for the same area.The 5-year average for this area is also 43.8 BPA.This is the worst yield since 2001.271 field samples were taken from an area from Colby to Manhattan, KS.The tour moves into the south and west today and is expected to see worse yields.
The director of the Colorado Assn. of Wheat Growers put their wheat yield at 32.0 BPA and the director in Nebraska pegged their yield from 40 to 45 BPA (avg. is 41.1 BPA).
Deliveries:144 CBOT contracts, last date April 8. Estimates for SRW delivery were zero-400 contracts.There were no HRW deliveries, estimates were for zero to 100 contracts. Minneapolis deliveries were 453 contracts, last date April 22.

Outlook: Wheat is correcting lower in spite of poor yield results from the wheat tour.

Jeremey Frost

Grain Merchandiser

Midwest Cooperatives

800-658-5535

800-658-3670

605-295-3100 (cell)

605-258-2166 (fax)

https://www.chshedging.com/UserFiles/Documents/2014/Research/USDA%20Crop%20Progress/Crop%20Progress042814.pdf

#Wheattour14 Tweets

2014-04-29T15:25:00.001-07:00

Here are some tweets from Twitter on the Wheat tour

Results for #wheattour14

Top / All

Followed by Nathan R Riskey and 1 other
Layton Ehmke‏@Ehmdash27 mins

Hill City stop of the #wheattour14 is hanging on for life as we head to Colby KS tour roundup to compare notes pic.twitter.com/fqZy2ehrNe
View photo Hide photo
2:56 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
Followed by Dave Newby and 43 others
Emily Unglesbee‏@Emily_Unglesbee37 mins

Tellingly, our final, most western stop of the day in Sheridan Co was the day's worst yield: 25 bpa. Thin stand, short plants. #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
Followed by Todd Hultman and 13 others
KRVN Radio‏@krvn45 mins

RT @Emily_Unglesbee Yields slipping as we move west in KS. 31 bpa field in Dresden. #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
1. Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat48 mins
  
  6 mi S of Burlington, CO on Hwy 385, Kit Carson County. Est yield 34 bu/acre. #wheattour14 http://ow.ly/i/5p4LT
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  2:35 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
1. Followed by Mae Connelly
  Tyler Harris‏@tyharris0851 mins
  
  A lot of the wheat crop is around two weeks behind, but some wheat heading out in Saline County, KS #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/gdm7xT2iuY
  View photo Hide photo
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  Retweets 3
  
  2:32 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Drag photo hereOr drag photo hereTweet text
  Reply to @tyharris08
  
  Reply to @tyharris08
  
  Image will appear as a link
  Add Photo
  
  119
2. Brian Beisner‏@BBeisner15 mins
  
  @tyharris08 better have a #FlexHead you can float across the ground for this #WheatHarvest2014
  Details Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
1. Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat58 mins
  
  20 mi s of Burlington, Co on Hwy 385 in Kit Carson Cty. Est yield 26 bu/acre. #wheattour14 http://ow.ly/i/5p4lI
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  2:24 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
1. Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat60 mins
  
  5 mi n of Sheridan Lake, CO on Hwy 385 in Kiowa County. Estimated yield is 23 bushels per acre. #wheattour14 http://ow.ly/i/5p4iZ
  View photo Hide photo
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  2:23 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Drag photo hereOr drag photo hereTweet text
  Reply to @coloradowheat
  
  Reply to @coloradowheat
  
  Image will appear as a link
  Add Photo
  
  116
1. Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat1 hr
  
  7 mi s. of Cheyenne Wells, CO on Highway 385 in Cheyenne County. Est yield is 18 bushels per acre. #wheattour14 http://ow.ly/i/5p4gP
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  2:23 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat1 hr

5 miles north of Sheridan Lake, CO on Highway 385 in Kiowa County. Estimated yield is 23 bushels per acre. #wheattour14...
Expand Collapse
Favorited by Cory Ritter
Chip Flory‏@ChipFlory1 hr

Here's what I think of the Wheat Quality Council's Hard Red Winter Wheat Tour. http://www.profarmer.com/perspective-opinion/more/chip-flory/market-rally-commentary-april-29-2014 … #MRRChip #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
1. Followed by LoneWolf and 8 others
  US Wheat Associates‏@uswheatassoc1 hr
  
  Stop near Zurich could do better than est 25.6 bpa, but some potential freeze damage evident #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/7HhySk5R1Q
  
  2:07 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat1 hr

20 miles south of Burlington, Co on Highway 385 in Kit Carson County. Estimated yield is 26 bushels per acre. #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
Great Lakes Grain‏@donkabbes1 hr

#corn up on slow #plant14 and wet weather, #soys rallied on tight supplies, #wheat up on crop ratings and lower yields from #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
1. Followed by CHS Hedging and 3 others
  Josh Roe‏@JoshDRoe1 hr
  
  #wheattour14 25-30 bushel in Decatur, Rawlins, and Thomas, rain sure would help! pic.twitter.com/FuDKHYlZJj
  View photo Hide photo
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  2:01 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Drag photo hereOr drag photo hereTweet text
  Reply to @JoshDRoe
  
  Reply to @JoshDRoe
  
  Image will appear as a link
  Add Photo
  
  121
Followed by Toby Goodroad
KS Wheat Alliance‏@KsWheatAlliance1 hr

On #wheattour14 field south of Hays looks good, but oil is probably better. pic.twitter.com/xgDNBxu2iH
View photo Hide photo
1:59 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
1. Followed by Osborn Barr and 6 others
  KansasWheat‏@KansasWheat2 hrs
  
  Decatur County. Short wheat with no sub-soil moisture. Yield estimate is 30 bpa if it rains again. #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/sQzhZTs4mF
  
  1:47 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
Followed by LoneWolf and 8 others
US Wheat Associates‏@uswheatassoc2 hrs

RT @Beesoninc: 14 stops with average of 32 BPA. Conditions much worse the closer we moved to Colby. Center of the state best #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
1. Followed by LoneWolf and 8 others
  US Wheat Associates‏@uswheatassoc2 hrs
  
  Good stand north of Hays. @KSWheatAlliance says could do better than est 32.3 bpa w/ some more moisture #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/FKcpoVnWkM
  
  1:43 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
Followed by NorthIowa and 4 others
gbryce‏@gbrycebeck2 hrs

Just comparing 2013 to #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
Followed by Andy Shireman and 9 others
Beeson Inc‏@Beesoninc2 hrs

14 stops with a car average of 32 BPA. Conditions much worse the closer we moved to Colby. Center of the state was the best #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
Followed by Dave Newby and 43 others
Emily Unglesbee‏@Emily_Unglesbee2 hrs

Yields slipping as we move west in KS. 31 bpa field in Dresden. #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
Followed by Nathan R Riskey and 1 other
Layton Ehmke‏@Ehmdash2 hrs

This Trego Co. field could do 30 bu/acre or more if it can fend off drought and hail. #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/La4Oq2MWJF
View photo Hide photo
Followed by Val Wagner and 8 others
Julia Stoskopf-Debes‏@StoskopfDebes2 hrs

#wheattour14 humor: Good profit potential in this field. Hint, not from the wheat. Est 29 bpa @KSWheatAlliance pic.twitter.com/YCZVkz4qd8
View photo Hide photo
1. Followed by LoneWolf and 8 others
  US Wheat Associates‏@uswheatassoc3 hrs
  
  RT @StoskopfDebes: Two generations of Wheat Tour! Julia Debes and her dad Dean Stoskopf. #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/WjrQ9zGY2f
  
  12:51 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
1. Followed by Dave Newby and 43 others
  Emily Unglesbee‏@Emily_Unglesbee3 hrs
  
  Wheat spotty and yellow in places near Clayton KS, est. yield 36 bpa. Driest soil we've seen yet. #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/zr1wDjMZoM
  View photo Hide photo
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  Retweet 1
  
  12:44 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Drag photo hereOr drag photo hereTweet text
  Reply to @Emily_Unglesbee
  
  Reply to @Emily_Unglesbee
  
  Image will appear as a link
  Add Photo
  
  114
2. Rod‏@rodgrisier19582 hrs
  
  @Emily_Unglesbee Finding heads in those stems? 36 best case ,,,whats worst case? 0
  Details Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
1. Followed by Ristad Farms and 3 others
  Brady Dean‏@BradyD783 hrs
  
  31-40 bushel through Jewell-Norton #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/z8ARMdMuBl
  View photo Hide photo
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  12:40 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Drag photo hereOr drag photo hereTweet text
  Reply to @BradyD78
  
  Reply to @BradyD78
  
  Image will appear as a link
  Add Photo
  
  121
Nebraska Wheat‏@NebraskaWheat3 hrs

Made it further west. Averaging in the mid 30 bpa now. #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
1. Followed by Todd Hultman and 13 others
  KRVN Radio‏@krvn3 hrs
  
  The worst field we've seen so far on this first day of #wheattour14. We're 11 stops in and averaging 36.6bu/acre. pic.twitter.com/Y0wq6tJ4GG
  from Kansas, USA
  View photo Hide photo
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  Retweets 2
  
  12:32 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Drag photo hereOr drag photo hereTweet text
  Reply to @krvn
  
  Reply to @krvn
  
  Image will appear as a link
  Add Photo
  
  125
1. Followed by LoneWolf and 8 others
  US Wheat Associates‏@uswheatassoc3 hrs
  
  Bindweed + probable late planted + drought = est 16.7 bpa @KSWheatAlliance says it needs to make 5 first #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/zh15Axw65J
  
  12:30 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
MKL‏@meglalonde3 hrs

@megandurisin I'm loving these FYI. #wheattour14
View conversation Hide conversation
Followed by Nathan R Riskey and 1 other
Layton Ehmke‏@Ehmdash3 hrs

wheat's getting thin near Bazine KS #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/IN1mUakbcb
from Kansas, USA
View photo Hide photo
Followed by Dave Newby and 43 others
Emily Unglesbee‏@Emily_Unglesbee3 hrs

Fun #wheattour14 discovery: Around 40 mph, rain starts to hurt. Also found a jointing wheat field in Norton Co KS, est. yield 41 bpa.
Expand Collapse
1. Followed by CHS Hedging and 3 others
  Josh Roe‏@JoshDRoe3 hrs
  
  31-40 bushel through Jewell-Norton #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/IIwXiI4odM
  View photo Hide photo
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  Retweet 1
  
  12:10 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Drag photo hereOr drag photo hereTweet text
  Reply to @JoshDRoe
  
  Reply to @JoshDRoe
  
  Image will appear as a link
  Add Photo
  
  121
Followed by Texas Corn Producers and 5 others
oklahoma wheat ‏@okwheat3 hrs

Back to some 30bu wheat west of Hill City #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
Followed by Todd Hultman and 4 others
Megan Durisin‏@megandurisin3 hrs

#wheattour14 RT @BNCommodities: Kansas wheat hit by drought as annual crop tour starts | http://bloom.bg/1nBXsFL
View summary Hide summary
Wetlands & Wildlife‏@KansasByway3 hrs

RT @ehmdash: @BartonCountyKS is first stop on our route where estimated yield is higher than last year #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/Fr06bRIgBW
View photo Hide photo
Great Bend KS‏@GreatBendKS3 hrs

RT @ehmdash: Touring the fields of Kansas on #wheattour14 http://instagram.com/p/nYV4_2k82a/
Expand Collapse
1. Followed by LoneWolf and 8 others
  US Wheat Associates‏@uswheatassoc3 hrs
  
  Drought stressed wheat near Otis needs rain soon, short wheat est 28.2 bpa @KSWheatAlliance #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/oEsZwDIkQH
  
  12:04 PM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
Followed by Todd Hultman and 4 others
Megan Durisin‏@megandurisin3 hrs

Looking pretty dry in Graham County in western Kansas. #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/0DUGw1RzYo
View photo Hide photo
Followed by Val Wagner and 8 others
Julia Stoskopf-Debes‏@StoskopfDebes4 hrs

Pretty good looking wheat on the field where I lived as a baby (used to be a house here). #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/r7qpe8PHhP
View photo Hide photo
Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat4 hrs

#wheattour14 - Be careful out there - check weather/road cond on your phones. Dust storms all over E Colo W Kansas. #cowx
Expand Collapse
Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat4 hrs

RT @brianbledsoe: #wheattour14 Dust storm now crossing I-70 near WaKeeney, KS. Troopers watching it closely. pic.twitter.com/nSRwUfnYeN
View photo Hide photo
1. Followed by Val Wagner and 8 others
  Julia Stoskopf-Debes‏@StoskopfDebes4 hrs
  
  Two generations of Wheat Tour! Thanks to @uswheatassoc for letting me carry on the family tradition. #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/Ql4TXng59g
  
  11:43 AM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
Followed by Nathan R Riskey and 1 other
Layton Ehmke‏@Ehmdash4 hrs

seventh stop on #wheattour14 brings us to projected 31.7 bu. crop in Rush Co. KS. The drought damage is showing. pic.twitter.com/vGX4OTbjAs
View photo Hide photo
Stephanie McIlwain‏@StephMcIlwain4 hrs

Stop number 7, Rush County KS . . . 31.7 #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/OxTCsIsCdr
View photo Hide photo
Kyle Abbott‏@KyleTAbbott4 hrs

@KansasWheat there are some good stands in parts of the county. Just need more rain for sustainable growth! #wheattour14
View conversation Hide conversation
John K‏@Kahnope4 hrs

@Ehmdash #wheattour14 tell them hi in Ellinwood for me
View conversation Hide conversation
Followed by FakeBenHandcock and 23 others
Justin Gilpin‏@jp_gilp4 hrs

@DaltonHenry what do you get when you drive a sprinkle covered ford flex into wks dust storm? #square mud ball #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
Retweeted by Mary Kennedy
Emily Unglesbee‏@Emily_Unglesbee4 hrs

Thin-looking, 9-inch field in Furnas Co NE could yield around 30 bpa. #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat4 hrs

@BrianBledsoe Found it! Thanks, trying to keep #wheattour14 guys coordinated and safe.
View conversation Hide conversation
1. Retweeted by Free Gluten!
  Nebraska Wheat‏@NebraskaWheat4 hrs
  
  On the #wheattour14 scouting fields. Yield estimate across southern Nebraska averaging 50 bpa. pic.twitter.com/znpAQZcTFF
  
  11:32 AM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
1. Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat4 hrs
  
  #wheattour14 15 miles south of Seibert on Highway 59. Estimated yield of 27 bushels per acre. http://ow.ly/i/5oWls
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  11:28 AM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
Followed by Andy Shireman and 9 others
Beeson Inc‏@Beesoninc4 hrs

Still in the 20 BPA range for our Trego co sample. Pic shows worst area of our test field. #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/QgaguYkRgt
from Kansas, USA
View photo Hide photo
1. Followed by Osborn Barr and 6 others
  KansasWheat‏@KansasWheat4 hrs
  
  Spotty stand east of Smith Center. Very little soil moisture available. #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/sqYcY6Lh2b
  
  11:24 AM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
1. Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat4 hrs
  
  #wheattour14 2 miles south of Seibert on Highway 59. Estimated yield of 45 bushels per acre. http://ow.ly/i/5oVR2
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  11:17 AM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat4 hrs

Backtracking a little bit to an earlier photo. Highway 36 two miles northeast of Byers. 30 bu yield estimate. #wheattour14...
Expand Collapse
Followed by Toby Goodroad
KS Wheat Alliance‏@KsWheatAlliance4 hrs

On #wheattour14 tiller numbers increasing as head size decreases as we make our way west. It will take timley rains out west to sustain.
Expand Collapse
Followed by Texas Corn Producers and 5 others
oklahoma wheat ‏@okwheat4 hrs

Drouth showing up in Ness County. Winter kill/ drought kill evident #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
Followed by Andy Shireman and 9 others
Beeson Inc‏@Beesoninc5 hrs

Ness Co. First really dry field we have seen. Calculation puts yield around 20 BPA. #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/b8ciziV3gR
from Kansas, USA
View photo Hide photo
Retweeted by Allen Motew
oklahoma wheat ‏@okwheat5 hrs

One field in Ness county 50/50 on making a crop. Close to blowing today. #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
Followed by Dave Newby and 43 others
Emily Unglesbee‏@Emily_Unglesbee5 hrs

Beautiful Harlan co NE field came in at 55 bpa, was also only the second field we've seen jointing. #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
Followed by Dave Newby and 43 others
Emily Unglesbee‏@Emily_Unglesbee5 hrs

Harlan co NE field came in at 34.5 bpa. In related news, the Nebraska wind had attempted to steal our road map twice. #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
1. Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat5 hrs
  
  7 miles south of Cope, CO on Highway 59. Irrigated wheat yield estimated at 73 bushels per acre. #Wheattour14 http://ow.ly/i/5oT1p
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  10:21 AM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
Favorited by KSS
Michael Hirtzer‏@mhirtz5 hrs

Here it is, you guys, the only #wheattour14 photo that matters - world's largest ball of twine via @ReutersAg pic.twitter.com/WuJt31YzQW
View photo Hide photo
1. Colorado Wheat‏@coloradowheat5 hrs
  
  I mile west of Anton, CO on Highway 36. Estimated yield 42 bushels per acre. #Wheattour14 http://ow.ly/i/5oSDb
  Expand Collapse
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  10:13 AM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
Followed by Todd Hultman and 4 others
Megan Durisin‏@megandurisin5 hrs

A few spots of freeze damage at a field in Rooks County, but good stands. #wheattour14 pic.twitter.com/ZcawniqVs9
View photo Hide photo
Followed by Dave Newby and 64 others
Market Rally Radio‏@MRRChip5 hrs

Talk with @ChipFlory and @BGrete at 2:30 CT today. Call 855-4-TALK-AG (855-482-5524) Anybody want to call in an update from #wheattour14?
Expand Collapse
Followed by FakeBenHandcock and 21 others
Justin Gilpin‏@jp_gilp5 hrs

@kansaswheat Mitchell Co field. Freeze damage noticeable.Low tiller count and thin stand.Calculated yld 33 bpa. Seemed high. #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
1. Retweeted by Rural Radio Network and 2 others
  KRVN Radio‏@krvn5 hrs
  
  As we head West across South Central NE for #wheattour14 this becomes reality. No more rain, just wind. pic.twitter.com/inXY2mKREP
  from Nebraska, USA
  View photo Hide photo
  
  Reply
  
  RetweetRetweeted
  
  Delete
  
  FavoriteFavorited
  Retweets 5
  
  9:57 AM - 29 Apr 2014 · Details Flagged (learn more)
  Drag photo hereOr drag photo hereTweet text
  Reply to @krvn
  
  Reply to @krvn
  
  Image will appear as a link
  Add Photo
  
  125
Followed by brian merkley and 6 others
Arlan Suderman‏@ArlanFF1016 hrs

Good assessment! RT @Emily_Unglesbee: DTN's Midday report from the HRW wheat tour: http://goo.gl/8kbPV #wheattour14
Expand Collapse
1. Followed by Osborn Barr and 6 others
  
  KansasWheat‏@KansasWheat6 hrs
  
  #wheattour14 attire. Just another late April day in Kansas. @KansasWheat pic.twitter.com/ud8KM0tGgG

Grain Market Comments 4-29-14

2014-04-29T07:45:00.002-07:00

Grain markets are called mixed this morning after a mixed overnight session that when ended saw corn up 4 cents, KC wheat off a couple pennies, MPLS wheat off 2 cents, CBOT wheat off a penny, and beans up 1-2 cents. At 8:05 outside markets have the DOW mini futures pointing towards a positive start of about 40-50 points, crude is up 50 cents, gold is down 3 bucks an ounce, and the US Dollar is near unchanged at 79.77 on the cash index.

Yesterday’s crop report progress report helped spark some more life into the corn market in the overnight session as the progress came in at 19% corn planted; which was below the estimate and the 5 year average. It is well ahead of last year and ahead of 2011 and it is very similar to the 2009 level which happened to be the best yielding crop so far.

Bottom line the market is adding in premium because of mother nature and concern of delayed plantings; personally I think moisture longer term makes grain. I just think that the American Farmer continues to make advancements every year and I think it is very unlikely that we actually lose tons of corn acres in the nation. Don’t get me wrong we could see acres slide in some areas and we could see some prevent plant acres in other areas; but the USDA didn’t exactly use all of last year’s prevent plant acres in the March planting intentions either. If you remember at that time many thought our acres would increase as we went forward; now maybe mother nature will prevent that from happening? But today are they any less???

Also when I look and see parts of Iowa in the drought monitor and then see rain hit Iowa and the market then go up it really makes me scratch my head. Delays in plantings means one of two things cool or wet. Cool is a concern and should be a concern; but longer moisture helps make more grain. Maybe I just suffer from backyardagains as rain in central and western South Dakota is welcomed. To me with the amount of money that has been spent to upgrade land and equipment via bigger machines and more tile to help control water it is hard to paint a picture where we don’t get the majority of the corn planted.

Here is more info on crop progress report from yesterday. It is from CHS Hedging; it does have a very good breakdown on page 3 showing corn planting on this week per year.

Basis does feel weaker for most of the grains as the rail situation continues to add some volatility to the marketplace. I think higher protein spring wheat offers might trade but basis for most of the others grains feels weaker; but that really depends on how bids are getting structured because of the big influence that rail freight has.

Another negative for basis is another increase in freight rates. As example all of our wheat for MWC ships on CP cars; the CP has a rate increase effective May 1. Doesn’t seem to matter that we still have cars ordered for well before that.

We are now offering a new crop millet program with an Act of God clause; if you want more info please give us a call.

Birdseed sunflower market in general feels weaker as we have shipped a lot of rail sunflowers the past couple weeks; enough that some buyers have cancelled some orders. I still think the sunflower situation is very tight; but we might have the flowers just in wrong spots. Feels like South Dakota has too many sunflowers, and ND doesn’t have enough. The big increase in freight rates going north has a spillover effect that maybe isn’t getting the birdseed/crush spread to where it should be?

Here is more market info from CHS Hedging Morning Highlights

Morning Highlights

By Phyllis Nystrom

Highlights

As of 6:45 AM CT: US dollar index down .031 at 79.666, crude oil up 56 cents at $101.40, ULSD up 1 ½ cents, gasoline up a penny, natural gas unchanged, gold down $9.60 at $1289.10, European Stoxx up .87%, Nikkei closed down .98%, Hang Seng closed up 1.45%.
The 1-5 day maps look slightly drier for the central Midwest, but not much fieldwork will get done with light rains in the forecast through Friday.The 6-10 map looks wetter for the northwestern Midwest. Southern Plains remain dry.
The US and EU are imposing new sanctions on allies of Russian President Putin.Pro-Russian rebels are holding a group of German and other OSCE military observers for a fourth day and have seized more public buildings in the Donetsk region.
First notice day for May grain futures is tomorrow, Wednesday, April 30^th.Long positions are reported after the close today and risk taking delivery.
Effective May 1^st, the new daily trading limit in corn will be 35 cents, $1.00 in beans, 45 cents for CBOT wheat, 50 cents for KC wheat, 3 cents in bean oil and $30 in bean meal.Limits will be recalculated in six months.

Corn

Corn planting is 19% complete, on the low end of expectations and well below the 28% average.Next week’s average pace is 42% and with the current cool, wet forecast it doesn’t look likely that we’ll catch up this week.The crop can be planted in hurry if necessary, last year 40% of the crop was planted in one week!
Major states completion: IL 32%, IA 15%, IN 8%, MN 4%, NE 20%.
Yesterday’s export inspection included a corn vessel bound for China off the PNW.This would be the first full corn cargo for China since January.
A 60 million gallon/year ethanol plant in Virginia that was completed in 2010, but never operated, is reportedly now grinding corn.
Corn deliveries are estimated at 0-200 contracts.
Syngenta says they do not expect any official word on approval by China of MIR162 until this summer, based on past practices. China announced that 1.124 mmt of MIR162 corn has been rejected.
The CK/CN carry continues to trade from 5 – 6 ¼ cents.Overnight it was 5 ½ - 6 cents.
May corn has closed higher in four out of the last five sessions.If May corn closes the month above $5.02, it will be the fourth higher monthly close in a row and the longest run of monthly gains since October 2010.
The US Dept. of Ag forecasts that China will be the world’s largest corn importer by 2021.They are expected to import 2% of their consumption needs this year.

Outlook: Corn continues to trend higher on delayed planting.

Oilseeds

US soybean planting is 3% complete versus 4% average.IL 2% done, IA 0, IN 1%, KS 1%, NE 6%
Crushers are rolling bids to the July, check your markets.
Brazilian sources indicate 7 bean boats are headed to the US totaling 356 tmt.
Another new contract high in May meal on Monday.
No bean deliveries are expected on first notice day.
The SK/SN inverse widened overnight, trading from 8 – 9 ½ cents.

Outlook: Soybean trading was two-sided overnight with less than a 10 cent range in the May contract. Look for a choppy session.

Wheat

HRW continues to gain strength from a dismal outlook for moisture over the next 10 days.Other wheat areas of the world, including the EU, western FSU and western Australia are experiencing good growing conditions.
The wheat tour should have numbers for OK, NE and CO on Wednesday and for KS on Thursday.The tour covers from Manhattan to Colby today.
Winter wheat conditions fell 1% to 33% good/excellent. 18% of the crop is headed versus 26% on average.
Spring wheat planting is 18% complete vs. 30% average.
Argentina has approved an additional 500 tmt of 13/14 wheat exports, bringing the official exportable surplus to 1.5 mmt.
Egypt’s Supplies Ministry says they have bought 350 tmt of local wheat since April 15, about 40% more than over the same period last year.
Ethiopia is tendering for 70 tmt of optional origin milling wheat.

Outlook: Wheat is easing lower after several days of higher closes and in spite of declining conditions, rising tension in the Ukraine and dryness in the Plains. Could still see a choppy day.

Jeremey Frost

Grain Merchandiser

Midwest Cooperatives

800-658-5535

800-658-3670

605-295-3100 (cell)

605-258-2166 (fax)