~ ITZ STOCK CHARTZ ~

IMPORTANT UPDATE

2014-03-19T12:43:00.001-04:00

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*NOTICE* ITZ is transitioning from eblogger to Tumblr go to following link >>> Tumblr

ITZ Weekend Update March 16th, 2014

2014-03-16T13:49:00.001-04:00

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Current Position Update:

Current Crude Oil Observations:

S&P 500 Pullback

2014-03-03T08:57:00.000-05:00

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$SPX

$CPCE

Crude Oil Overbought

2014-03-02T11:47:00.002-05:00

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Unfavorable winter weather in the US and Europe has been supporting oil prices thus far this year. Oil is not reacting like other risk markets because of the winter and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East & Ukraine. Prices will go lower as temperatures rise, China’s slowdown will compound it even more. READ>>

Brent/WTI Spread Narrows to 4 ½ Month Low link chart

More Upside For BBRY

2014-02-28T16:30:00.000-05:00

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ITZ noted the bullish chart back in October:

Now: Daily chart

Weekly chart:

New Buy: MS

2014-02-28T12:59:00.002-05:00

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Financials look good here, lets take a 1/2 position in Morgan Stanley (MS) entry $30.75- add on pullbacks.

Long Direxion ERY

2014-02-28T11:33:00.003-05:00

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ITZ has entered the Direxion ETF Daily Energy 3X (ERY) having entered 1/4 position yesterday @ $20.65 & today @ $20.20. ITZ had been long the XLE via ERX entering a 1/2 position on 2/3/14 @ $71 and scaling out @ $84, $86 & $88.

Below is a 60 minute chart of the XLE.

ITZ Weekend Update 2-23-14

2014-02-23T12:38:00.001-05:00

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Follow up to last week's Weekend Update

Andrew Su, CEO at Compass Global Markets, explains why he thinks Wednesday's peak in oil prices are temporary and is expecting prices to recede to $95 a barrel by the end of the first-half.

ITZ Weekend Update 2-15-14

2014-02-15T19:01:00.000-05:00

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ITZ takes a look at the S&P500 & $CPCE; Gold & Silver Wheaton; the energy sector via ERX & crude oil/ SCO.

Gold & SLW link

SLW Price Objective $30

Energy: ERX link SCO link

ITZ Open Positions 2-9-14

2014-02-09T12:01:00.002-05:00

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Markets rallied this week, even off a lousy Jobs Report.

AAPL Apple has repurchased $14 billion of its stock in the two weeks after its first-quarter financial results and second-quarter revenue outlook disappointed investors. Now testing 100ma.

ERX ITZ re-entered @ $71, reversal of ascending channel.

HIMX Himax Technologies will report earnings on the 13th.... bank of America raised their PT from $15 to $20

LULU RBC upgraded with a PT of $56

SCO WTI Crude Oil rallied Friday, testing $100 a barrel. ITZ re-entered Proshares Ultra Short Crude (SCO) LINK

Short WTI: SCO

2014-02-07T13:14:00.002-05:00

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ITZ is taking a 1/2 position in Proshares Ultra Short Crude OIl ETF (SCO) @ $21 as crude tests $99

BUY Energy ETF: ERX

2014-02-03T15:17:00.003-05:00

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Getting back into Direxion Energy Bull etf (ERX)

Weekend Update: 2-1-14

2014-02-01T16:09:00.002-05:00

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Signs of investors' rush to be seated in defensive areas of the market are clear. Nowhere is the shift to defensive stocks more clear than in the relative strength of the utilities sector. During times of uncertainly, investors move to utilities, which are known for their stable earnings and dependable dividends.

The S&P 500 finished January down nearly 4%, the worst January performance since 2010.

Carter Braxton Worth, chief market technician and managing director at Oppenhiemer & Company, noted recently on CNBC. He said the S&P 500, on average, finishes the year lower only 33% of the time. However, when January ends the month lower, the likelihood the S&P 500 ends lower for the year jumps to 58%. In the February through December time period, the S&P 500 is up, on average, just 1.65% when the month of January ends lower. This compares to the average increase of 8.5% when January is positive. He reasoned that the S&P 500 looks likely to decline into the 1,600s.

ITZ noted recently, on how markets performed the year after it had 30% gains--- LINK

Market Observations $SPX & $NDX

2014-01-29T13:51:00.001-05:00

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ITZ takes a look at $SPX & $NDX support levels:

Apple Earnings & Outlook

2014-01-24T23:37:00.002-05:00

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January 27th Apple will report on what historically is its best business period of the year. ITZ sees a profit of $14.15 a share on revenue of $57.55 billion for the quarter ended in December, up from earnings of $13.87 a share on $54.5 billion in sales in the same period in 2012.

Look for Apple to report it sold about 55 million iPhones and 22 million iPads. In which they released its iPad Air tablet and expanded the release of the iPhone 5c and 5s to more than 30 countries after the initial launch on Sept. 20.

ITZ is expecting Apple to continue to deliver with more new products & services in 2014, iPhone 6 will be the major catalyst.

Things started to rock with week when Carl Icahn TWEETED that Apple is “ doing a great disservice to shareholders by not having markedly increased its buyback.” While he chastised Apple for not increasing the amount of cash it plans on returning to its shareholders, Icahn also said he has raised his stake in Apple by $500 million, to more than $3 billion, over the last two weeks.

For the last two quarters, according to Thomson Reuters consensus, the expected EPS and revenue growth rates are 10% for 2014, 10% in 2015 and 8% for fiscal 2016 eps and 8%, 7%, and 7% for revenue consensus and again, this is after the Icahn and China Mobile news.

Valuation, trading at 13xs and 11xs 2014 and 2015 EPS for expected growth of 10% and 8%, means AAPL could trade up to 15xs - 18xs forward estimates and still be reasonably valued.

Price to cash-flow ex-cash, AAPL is trading at 7xs and then 10xs free-cash-flow (ex the balance sheet hoard) so the stock is a true value stock with consumer-staple like growth rates.

Carl Icahn places a valuation @ $840 as stated in his letter...

In our opinion, a great example of a “no brainer” in today’s market is Apple. The S&P 500’s price to earnings multiple is 71% higher than Apple’s, and if Apple were simply valued at the same multiple, its share price would be $840, which is 52% higher than its current price."

In the last Apple blog post ITZ wrote..."Apple's price target of $550 by Jan 2014 & a 12 month objective of $650." link

click on chart to expand image

ITZ Portfolio Positions

2014-01-24T00:12:00.000-05:00

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Current open positions:
AAPL reports earnings 1/27

NUAN reports 2/3/14

LULU reports 3/27*correction add @ $45 not $42

Citigroup - C ...Time To Enter

2014-01-23T11:56:00.000-05:00

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ITZ suggests taking a 1/2 position in Citigroup (C) @ $50.75. Will add on any further decline.

$1450 Gold in 2014?

2014-01-19T14:52:00.001-05:00

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Follow up on gold: As posted on Jan 14th Gold Miners LINK

ITZ continues to favor Silver Wheaton (SLW), what appears to be a double bottom, we could see a breakout coming near term & a price objective of $30. ITZ has a Strong Buy
Michael Dudas of Sterne Agee explains why gold could mount a minor comeback in 2014

Gold Miners

2014-01-14T11:27:00.000-05:00

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Frank Holmes CEO and Chief Investment Officer U.S. Global Investors: 'Continuing a Winning Formula for 2014' >LINK

Gold Market

After shedding some 30 million ounces of gold from a high of 85 million ounces, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff believes it is fair to ask whether the fire sale is done. According to Rosenberg, sentiment could scarcely be more negative, with even the good macro data looking like it is priced in. What’s most interesting to see is that gold and bonds declined in the same year – a very rare phenomenon. The most recent memories of this trend occurring have coincided with gold market bottoms, in which market players shrug their shoulders at the mention of gold.

Opportunities

The Swiss National Bank’s gold holdings are the target of a national initiative and called by citizens collecting signatures, demanding that at least 20 percent of the central bank’s assets be in the form of gold. The measure would also bar the central bank from selling any of its holdings and would require the repatriation of the SNB’s gold holdings with the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.

Valuations of gold miners are approaching their cheapest relative to book value in at least two decades, precisely at the time when free cash flow generation has bottomed and cost reductions are kicking in. The current valuations present opportunities for junior miners to acquire mining assets, just like Northern Star Resources did by purchasing the Plutonic mine from Barrick, based solely on the value of the proven and probable reserves.

The recent shift in Canadian government policy is having a pronounced effect on the value of the “loonie,” or the Canadian dollar. The Canadian government appears to have shifted gears and decided that a weaker currency, via monetary policy accommodation, is now required to hasten the rebalancing of the Canadian economy. The implications for Canada’s exporting industries, which encompass gold producers, are enormous. We discussed earlier how a decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar could effectively erase any losses arising from declining gold prices for those producers with large, Canadian portfolios such as Agnico Eagle Mines.

ITZ favorite play in the metals sector in the past has been Silver Wheaton SLW, $21 attractive entry level.... targeting 200ma near term & $30 long term price objective. chart

Market Sentiment 1-12-14

2014-01-12T19:52:00.001-05:00

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Since the March 2009 lows the S&P500 has rallied 175%, its been over 2 years with a 10% correction in the market. David Bianco- Now Has The Most Cautious Outlook For Stocks >LINK

Most are looking for a correction, 2013 saw a 32.15% gain in the S&P500. As we started out 2014, the first five days are not bullish, now we need to see how the month goes. ITZ looks at years where the S&P500 closed +30% and how the following year performed. From 1928 to date... there were 11 years that the S&P500 closed up 30% or more. The average gain was 37.63% while the following year's performance averaged +9.2%. If that's applied to 2013's +32.15%, should give the S&P a 7.86% gain or place the SPX @ 1994.

December 30th Post :Link

ITZ also takes a look at several other sentiment indicators:

Getting Back Into LULU

2014-01-10T15:29:00.000-05:00

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ITZ has re-entered Lululemon this afternoon, after being stopped out earlier this week. LINK

First Trade of 2014: Re-entering UCO

2014-01-02T10:36:00.002-05:00

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WTI Crude Oil has pulled back after touching its 200-ma $100ish December 26th. ITZ was stopped out of Proshares UCO on 12/27 @ $32.90. Let's start legging into @ $30.75 with a 1/4 position.

~ ITZ 2013 YEAR END RECAP ~

2014-01-01T13:34:00.002-05:00

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Below are ITZ Trades by stock ticker, dates & position 1/4, 1/2 etc...

2012 CLOSED TRADES

SLW   1/4/13 (1/4 position) $35.10; 2/20/13 (1/4) $32.75 & 2/25/13 (1/4) $32.30 Sold 3/5/13 $37 +10.85%; 6/27 (full position) $18.00 - Sold 8/28 (1/2) $27.00 +50% & 8/29/13 (1/2) $26.00 +45%; 9/18 (1/4) $24.75 - Sold 9/19 $26.50 +7.11%; 9/25 (1/4) $24.50 - Sold 9/26 $24.60 +0.4%; 10/8 (1/4) $23.25 + 10/9 (1/4) $22 + 10/17 (1/4) $23 + 10/22 (1/4) $24 - Sold full position 10/25 $23.96 +3.9% ---- +61.42% Cumulative Return

SCO    1/29/13 (1/4) $36 - Sold 3/13/13 $39.65 +10.1%; 1/23/13 (1/4) $37 - Sold 3/1/13 $41.80 +13%; 2/8/13 (1/4) $36.60 - Sold 3/13/13 $41 +12%; /15/13 (1/4) $39.30 - Sold 3/18 $40.00 +1.8%; 3/8 (1/4) $39.50 -Sold 3/8 $39.10 -1%; 3/19 (1/2) $39.25- Sold 3/19 $39.70 +1.1%; 3/19 (1/4) $39.70- Sold $40.17 +1.2%; 3/21 (1/4) $40.15- Sold 3/21 $40 -0.4%; 3/25 (1/2) $38.45- Sold 3/25 $38 -1.17%; 3/25 (1/2) $38.25- Sold $38.50 +0.6%; 4/1 (1/2) $37.20 - Sold 4/1 $37 -0.05%; 4/3 (1/2) $37 -Sold 4/4 $39.50 +6.76%; 4/10 (1/2) $39.00 - Sold 4/10 $38.40 -1.54%;  4/11 (1/2) $39.10 - Sold 4/11 $39.15 0%; 4/8 (1/2) $40.04- Sold 4/8 $39.40 -1.6%; 4/12 (1/4) $40.75 & 4/11 (1/2) $39.30 -Sold position 4/12 $41.20 +3.57%; 5/17 (1/4) $36.70 -Sold 5/17 $37.25 +1.5%; 5/17 (1/2) $36.80 -Sold 5/20 $36.86 0%; 5/28 (1/2) $37.25 - Sold 5/28 $37.35 +0.4%; 6/11 (1/4) $37.25, 6/12 (1/4) $36.50 & 6/13 )1/4) $36 -Sold 6/17 $35 -4.55%; 6/19 (1/4) $34.80 & (1/4) $35 -Sold 6/19 $35.20 +0.9%; 6/28 (1/2) $35.80 & 7/2 (1/4) $34 - Sold 8/27 $27.35 -21%; 8/29 (1/4) $27.35 -Sold 8/30 $27.50 +0.5%; 9/4 (1/4) $27.25 & 9/9 (1/4) $27.80 -Sold 10.28 $31.85 +15.7%; 9/30 (1/4) $30.75 & 10/25 (1/4) $31.80 -Sold 10.30 $31.80 -1% ---- +4.2% Cumulative Return

UCO 4/16 (1/4) $25.85 - Sold 4/26 $28.50 +9.19%; 4/17 (1/4) $24.85 - Sold 4/30 $28.75 +15.7%; 4/29 (1/4) $29.38 - Sold $28.75 -2.14%; 5/2 (1/4) $27.60 - Sold $28.50 +3.26%; 5/7/(1/4) $29.75 - Sold 5/7 $30.10 +1.17%; 5/8 (1/4) $30.50 -Sold 5/8 $30.70 +0.7%; 5/10 (1/4) $29 & (1/4) $29.50 -Sold 5/13 $29.89 +2.18%; 5/13 (1/4) $29.50 - Sold 5/13 $29.90 +1.35%; 5/15 (1/4) $28.25 - Sold 5/15 $29 +2.56%; 5/23 (1/2) $28.25 -Sold 5/24 $28.90 +2.3%; 5/28 (1/2) $29.50 - Sold 5/28 $29.60 +0.35%; 5/29 (1/2) $29 & (1/2) $28.50 - Sold 5/30 $28.75 0%; 5/31 (1/2) $28.25 & (1/4) $27.70 - Sold 6/3 $28.45 +1.35%; 6/4 (1/4) $28 & (1/4) $28.25 - Sold 6/4 $29 +3.11%; 6/4 (1/4) $28.25 - Sold 6/7 $30.05 +2.73%; 6/7 (1/4) $28.25 & (1/4) $28.85 - Sold 6/7 $30 +5.4%; 6/20 (1/4) $29.40 - Sold 6/21 $29 -1.36%; 11/6 (1/4) $29 & 11/21 (1/4) $30.30 - Sold 12/13 $31 +4.3%; 12/19 (1/2) $31.50 - Sold 12/27 $32.90 +4.44% ---- +20.4% Cumulative Return

NOV 2/1/13 (1/4) $70.50, 1/23/13 (1/4) $66, 3/15/13 (1/4) $70 & 3/26/13 (1/4) $70; Sold 9/3/13 (full) $75.50 +9.7%     +9.7% Cumulative Return

KOG 4/5/13 (1/4) $8.30 & 4/9 (1/4) $8.50 - Sold 4/10 $8.70 +3%; 4/15 (1/4) $7.85 & 4/16 (1/4) $7.50 - Sold 4/17 $7.70 0% +1.5% Cumulative Return

HK 4/15 (1/4) $7.10 + (1/4) $6.80 + (1/4) $6.50 - Sold 4/17 $6.60 -2.9%   -2.9 % Cumulative Return

ALK 9/10 (1/4) $60 - Sold 9/27 $63 +5% +5% Cumulative Return

SDS 9/26 (1/4) $35.90 - Sold 10/9 $37.50 +4.45%; 11/13 (full position) $33 - Sold 11/14 $32 -3%; 11/19 (1/2) $32 - Sold 11/21 $32 0%   -1.9% Cumulative Return

BAC 9/27 (1/4) $13.90 + 9/30 (1/4) $13.65 - Sold 10/11 $14.14 +3.6%; 10/16 (1/2) $14.40 + 10/16 (1/4) $14.51 - Sold 10/16 $14.55 +1.3%; 10/17 (1/2) $14.45 -Sold 12/11 $15.31 +5.95%; 10/18 (1/2) $15.00 - Sold 12/3 $15.60 +4%   +6.86% Cumulative Return

AAPL 7/23/13 (full position) $400 - Sold 12/18 (1/2) $558.50 +39.6% & 12/19 (1/2) $548.20+37% +38.3% Cumulative Return

ERY 10/25 (full position) $22 - Sold 11/22 $20.70 -5.9% -5.9% Cumulative Return

ERX 12/18 (full) $79.50 - Sold 12/30 $88 +10.7% +10.7% Cumulative Return

CLF 11/16 (full) $27 - Sold 11/22 $25.50 -5.5%   -5.5% Cumulative Return

EBAY 11/29 (3/4) $48.50 - Sold 12/4 $51 +3%     +3% Cumulative Return

YHOO 11/3 (1/2) $33 + 11/12 (1/2) $34 - Sold 12/18 $39 +16.4% +16.4 % Cumulative Return

CURRENT OPEN POSITIONS:

HIMX 11/8/13 (1/4) $8.20 + 11/26/13 (1/4) $9.40 --- closed 12/31 @ $14.71 +67.2%

LULU 12/17/13 (1/2) $58.50 + 12/26/13 (1/2) $59.40 ---- closed 12/31 @ $59.03 +0.4%

KOG 12/18/13 (1/4) $10.80 ---- Closed 12/31 @ $11.21 +3.8%

NUAN 12/5/13 (full position) $14 ---- closed 12/31 @ $15.20 +8.6%

ERY 12/30/13 (full position) $20.50 ---- closed 12/31 @ $20.12 -1.86%

*** Wishing Everyone A Happy & Healthy 2014 ****

Exit ERX...Enter ERY

2013-12-30T18:38:00.000-05:00

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ITZ exited its position in Energy Sector being stopped out of ERX and switching into the ERY. Prior position post

Kodiak Oil & Gas KOG

2013-12-18T15:45:00.000-05:00

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ITZ has Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) on the radar. A top play in the Bakken Shale, ITZ believes Kodiak's stock price can double within a year.
KOG's PEG is at a 85% discount to its Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Industry; Forward PE Ratio 54% discount.
Buy under $11