~ ITZ STOCK CHARTZ ~

Indexes At Extreme Levels Above 200 MA's

2013-05-17T19:46:00.001-04:00

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How long have we've been hearing that the markets are due for a correction now? Granted it seems as if nothing can bring this market down...but something to consider, the S&P500 & Nasdaq daily charts relative to their respective 200 day moving averages, do suggest could see a pullback at any time. Now what will be the catalyst is another question?

*Note from Sept 2010 to May 2011 $SPX gained 30%. From Oct 2011 to April 2012 +32%. Now from December 2012 we need to see $SPX 1755 for +30% the index would need to rise 88 points from today's close. Also to get a 15%+ the 200ma would be at 1500.

Can WTI Crude Oil Reach $102 By Memorial Day?

2013-05-10T20:33:00.000-04:00

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Follow-up to this mornings post on WTI Crude Oil.

Watch $GASO chart now through Memorial Day LINK

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Crude Oil's Next Move

2013-05-10T09:28:00.001-04:00

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WTI Crude Oil is selling off, ITZ has 2 charts today an 8-hour with an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. We're seeing a throwback to the neckline as well as testing support on an ascending channel. A break above $97 could see a Measured Move to $102. However if the IH&S is negated we could see further selling, possibly to $89/$90 testing the support level on the Daily as well as weekly Pennant. Itz is currently in cash on the Proshares UCO & SCO trade. Looking to hear what Chairman Bernanke has to say & the U.S. Dollar's move. Follow on Twitter

WTI Crude Oil Sells Off: UCO

2013-05-01T10:30:00.000-04:00

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WTI Crude Oil is selling off this week, API reported 5 million-barrel rise in crude supply LINK

EIA reported a build of 6.7 million bbl LINK

$GASO $UCO weekly chart seems to be making a similar bottom to that of last year May/June period Chart

One could trade $SCO here shorting crude, but be nimble. ITZ is looking to re-enter $UCO very soon.

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Did You Get Long Crude Oil?

2013-04-24T17:58:00.001-04:00

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WTI Crude Oil rallied over $2 today, Proshares Ultra Crude Oil ETF (UCO) +4.91%. ITZ entered two 1/4 positions back on April 16th @ $24.85 & on the 17th @ $25.85. Currently ITZ is using a trailing stop, a 8ema & 21ema on a 60 minute chart. Current stops are $27.40 & $26.85. ITZ has not increased the position, in part to several weekly indicators have not confirmed. If there is a confirmation, then we'll suggest adding and also revise the current sell stops.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels last week but remained in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. As reported today in EIA Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data LINK

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped the most this year as a government report showed that U.S. gasoline stockpiles tumbled while oil inventories rose less than analysts estimated. Read Story

ITZ has been noting for several weeks that gasoline prices were in decline.... recent post for more posts BLOG

Longterm Gold Observations

2013-04-21T10:53:00.001-04:00

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Looking at a 40 year chart of gold, comparing the 70's rally and meltdown to that of the last 13 years.

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Gold Volatility Beats U.S. Stocks

CFTC Is Looking at Gold, Silver Moves, Chilton Says

Gold Videos

2013-04-18T10:41:00.002-04:00

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Gold Falling to $800?: Gold-CPI Ratio Says Yes

Gold Demand Curve Bows to Three Masters

Gold Likely to Fall Further

Gold Price Drop `Excessive,' UBS Says

Drivers of Gold Are Still in Place: Cuggino

WTI Crude Oil -Time To Get Long?

2013-04-15T21:22:00.003-04:00

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WTI Crude Oil tested $87 today, we could see a bit more selling to $85. ITZ suggests phasing into Proshares Ultra CrudeOil (UCO) Buy-Zone $25/$26. If still in Proshares SCO, run a tight trailing stop.

Mark Fisher

Weekend Update: Crude Oil, Gold, Gasoline & Dollar

2013-04-14T11:31:00.000-04:00

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The good news for motorists is that gasoline prices are expected to be more affordable in the coming months than they were during the two preceding summers. Read Story

Growing domestic crude oil production has contributed to lower crude oil imports (see This Week in Petroleum, March 20, 2013). At 8.5 million bbl/d, U.S. crude oil gross imports in 2012 were the lowest for any year since 1997. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will exceed U.S. crude oil gross imports as early as the end of 2013, the first time this will have occurred since February 1995. Link

On Thursday April 11th, ITZ posted a chart on Twitter highlighting the H&S &/or Bear Flag Twitter Link

West Texas Intermediate crude fell-the International Energy Agency trimmed forecasts for global oil demand. Brent’s premium to WTI shrank to the smallest level in 14 months. LINK

WTI Crude Oil Going To $87

2013-04-11T14:30:00.000-04:00

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Taking a look at the NYMEX Crude Oil 8 hour chart. Looks like a Head & Shoulders pattern as well as a possible Bear Flag pattern. Watch the $92 area (neckline/support), a break below & a measured move towards $88/$87 is possible. Re-entering with a 1/2 position Proshares UltraShort Crude Oil (SCO) $39.30 and adding to position on a break below $92 post open, follow on Twitter.

Copper, Housing, Finance & Russell 1000 - Charts

2013-04-07T18:50:00.000-04:00

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ITZ takes a look at a few sector daily & weekly charts: Copper, Housing, Finance & Russell 1000.

Copper Market Seen by Standard Bank as Liable to ‘Tighten’ Read Story

Lumber prices skyrocket on U.S. housing rebound Read Story

Big Four Bank Earnings: What to Expect Read Story

Last charts take a look at the Russell 1000 ETF(IWB) top holdings Financial Service 16.3%; Industrial materials 12.84% & Energy 12.64% Link

ITZ Weekend Review: 4-5-13

2013-04-06T13:45:00.000-04:00

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Job creation slowed to a crawl during March, with the U.S. economy creating just 88,000 positions though the unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent. Friday's report fell short of economist expectations of 200,000 new jobs, confirming some of the weakness in recent reports. Moreover, the drop in the jobless rate was little more than a statistical anomaly, with the labor-force participation rate tumbling to a 34-year low of 63.3 percent.

With speculation rising that the Federal Reserve soon would start winding down its asset purchase program, the weak jobs report probably keeps the central bank on hold at least through the end of the year. The central bank has tied the end of its zero interest rate policy to a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.5 percent.

Gold rallied over 1.5 percent on Friday, its biggest one-day gain since November, as disappointing U.S. job data fueled expectations the Federal Reserve will continue its bullion-friendly bond purchases. Crude oil fell to an eight-month low as the bleak U.S. jobs data dimmed the outlook for fuel demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

The U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies, hitting nearly two-week lows against the euro, as weaker-than-expected jobs data raised concerns that the pace of recovery in the American labor market has slowed. The Bank of Japan's massive stimulus announcement should keep the yen's downtrend intact. ITZ sees a near term rally in the Euro, with softness in the jobs data. But this is a minor pullback in the U.S. economy and expect a slowdown in the next couple of quarters and then we will see growth picking up again in the last quarter of the year.

Art Cashin, UBS, shares his thoughts on the dismal employment number. Where can you go to hide?

WTI Crude reversed @ $97.70 level link

Silver tested support slightly below $27 level link

Back in March ITZ highlighted the similarites bewtween Apple & Google on Twitter when anaysts gave a $1,000 price target--- Negative Divergence Top

Targeting $730

ITZ entered Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) on Friday

Crude Oil Reverses and Heads Lower

2013-04-03T17:02:00.004-04:00

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ITZ re-entered Proshares UltraShort CrudeOil ETF (SCO) this morning with a 1/2 position cost basis $37, it closed at $38.58 - STOP set at $38.50.

WTI Crude Oil reversed around $97.70, resistance on a daily chart, which ITZ posted on Twitter this week. Downside support is $92.50.

Oil Inventory Data: Late Tuesday, data from the API revealed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose 4.70 million barrels and gasoline stocks were down 5.00 million barrels in the week ended March 29.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration in its weekly crude oil report said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.70 million barrels to 388.60 million barrels last week, and are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. EIA Report

The week before, crude oil inventories increased 3.30 million barrels to 385.90 million barrels.
Meanwhile, total motor gasoline inventories moved down by 0.60 million barrels last week, after shedding by 1.60 million barrels in the prior week, but remained in the middle of the average range.
Analysts were expecting crude oil inventories to rise 2.10 million barrels last week.

Barclays Cuts 2013 Oil Price Forecast as Supply Risks Fade Link
Lowering 2013 Brent price from $125 to $112 and WTI from $108 to $95. The note added that an early resolution of the Iranian situation and recovery in its export volumes, a slowing of China's recovery or an interruption to the nascent recovery of U.S. oil demand could all force down the price of oil.

more crude oil posts link

Mining Stocks Are Oversold: Gold, Silver & SLW

2013-03-30T21:24:00.001-04:00

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Gold miners relative to the metal itself has now hit extreme oversold levels. ITZ believes gold will rally here, but that the miners will outperform. Silver and silver miners will follow, favorite play remains Silver Wheaton (SLW) link

Gold - Silver Ratio & Euro Followup

2013-03-26T11:48:00.001-04:00

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Silver has been in a tight ($1) trading range for a week now, most likely it will test long term support around $27. But several weekly charts point to higher levels, $31 then $35. The Euro needs to rally and/or Dollar weaken, ITZ is looking for EU investor to flock towards precious metals as banking/financial worries continue. ITZ has updated some charts since last post on Euro- Gold/Silver Ratio LINK

ITZ Weekend Review 3-23-13

2013-03-23T20:48:00.001-04:00

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More pieces to the puzzle- sentiment indicators- pointing to a market pullback. However, this market continues to defy all the negatives thrown at it and climbs higher. All this does is stretch the rubber band more for a larger pullback, that is long overdue.

BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey LINK

Wien: Liquidity Driving the Market: Taking a close look at the corporate environment, and how to play the markets, with Byron Wien, Blackstone Advisory Partners. "As long as money if flowing out of the Fed, stocks keep going higher," he says.

The S&P500 is trading about 10% to 12% above it's 200 day moving average. Whenever it gets to this extreme level historically it signals a sell.

S&P500 - Are We There Yet?

2013-03-19T18:58:00.000-04:00

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Are We There Yet?

Just as kids on a family trip... we kept asking every few minutes... that question. We continue to ask when will this market correct?

Dow/Gold Ratio: How High Can The Dow Go?

2013-03-16T23:27:00.000-04:00

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average $INDU has been making new highs, however the 10-day streak ended this Friday and the S&P500 came within 4 points of it's New High.

ITZ has in the past looked at several gold ratios, to see how much gold was need to buy an index or commodity?

The Dow/Gold Ratio (DGR) measures how many ounces of gold it takes to buy the $DJIA.
Below are several charts, one going back 200 years, another some 30 years and a look at some more specific periods.

Currently, the DGR rests at 9.12, with the $DJIA @ 14,514 and $GOLD @ $1,591.15

If, gold held firm at $1,591 an ounce and the DGR went to 15:1 the DOW would be at 23,865; 25:1 = 39,775 and at the historical peak of 45:1 = 51,595.

Lets say the DOW stayed flat 14,500, then for a 15:1 DGR Gold would need to fall to $968 an ounce; @ 25:1 = $580 and at 45:1 = $322!

Near term ITZ is looking at gold to test $1,800, if the ratio held to 9:1, that would put the $DJIA around 16,415.... about 13% higher from here.

Let's see what happens when the Fed ends QE and rates begin to raise and/or inflation creeps in.

National Oilwell Varco (NOV): Update 3-15-13

2013-03-15T16:43:00.003-04:00

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National Oilwell Varco (NOV) weekly chart is looking very bullish. On the technicals- Positive Divergence and fundamentals- trading on the low end of it's recent p/e range. ITZ has a $90 price target. Click here for past NOV post

ITZ added to the position today

WTI Crude Oil - More Downside?

2013-03-11T18:06:00.001-04:00

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ITZ suggested shorting WTI crude oil @ $98 with a $89/$90 near term target. We're seeing a bounce here, could test $92.50, that said ITZ believes $83bbl as a possible downside target.

Update on Proshares UltraShort Crude Oil ETF (SCO): entered 1/4 position Jan 23rd $37 stopped 3/1 @ $41.80; entered 1/4 position 2/8/13 $36.60, stopped 3/7/13 @ $41; remaining 1/4 position entered 1/29/13 @ $36 using 21 ema as stop $39.78~ should WTI break under $89bbl, looking to add to SCO position.

Silver Wheaton SLW Update

2013-03-07T19:48:00.001-05:00

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ITZ has been bullish on silver for some time now, more specifically one company... Silver Wheaton (SLW)

Here are links to past posts: Jan 3, 2013 Jan 12,2013 Feb 19, 2013

Reports March 21st --- Add to position under $31

Randy Smallwood, CEO of Silver Wheaton, says silver is a good precious metal in this environment. "We like it more than gold," he tells Mad Money host Jim Cramer.

Don't Worry. Silver Will Snap Back , Says Silver Wheaton CEO

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ITZ Weekend Review: Gold, Silver, Euro & More...

2013-03-02T13:11:00.000-05:00

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Two weeks ago ITZ posted several charts on gold, silver, the euro etc (LINK) indicating approaching opportunity levels. These markets have been driven on technicals and ITZ is looking for some upside here.

Also this past week, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified in front of the Senate Banking Committee and continues to remain dovish. LINK

Last week, gold came under heavy fire from the sellers. The shiny yellow metal fell below the $1600 mark for the first time in a while, and it even hit the "death cross" – a technical indicator formed when the 50-day average gold price dips below the 200-day average – indicating rapidly deteriorating sentiment. LINK

The 'Death Cross' Is Actually Bullish For Gold

Markets & Crude Oil Overbought

2013-02-28T10:34:00.000-05:00

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Markets look toppy here and continues to rise as most call for a pullback. ITZ continues to remain short WTI Crude Oil via Proshares Ultra Short Crude Oil ETF (SCO) average cost $36.50. Use the 50 moving average as a trailing stop.

click on charts to expand images

Chart Update: Gold GLD- Silver SLV & Silver Wheaton SLW

2013-02-19T21:09:00.002-05:00

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Unlike the metal, Silver Wheaton (SLW) has earnings, currently trading @ 15 times '13 earnings. It's low in 2012 was also @ 15 xs '12 eps.

ITZ Weekend Update: Gold, Silver, & More...

2013-02-17T15:19:00.000-05:00

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Short-term the metals are taking a hit - but the long-term investor is getting some excellent buying opportunities as prices of gold, silver and the miners (ITZ pick Silver Wheaton SLW) selloff . The near term action has been driven primarily by old news from major hedge funds- George Soros and Pimco and then some technical selling.

Charts indicate we could continue on the technical side, but could be reversed depending on what Asian traders do this week, the comments out of the G-20 meeting, the information in the Federal Reserve minutes and any news from congress on the pending March sequester.

ITZ takes a look at several charts this weekend:

For more charts & past posts Click Here