richard9's betfair trading blog

NBA case studies/ Free time section

2014-01-17T16:15:00.001-08:00

Goodnight traders, as promised here are some case studies about NBA trading. The blog is full of tennis cases so i think other sport would add more value for now:

OKC @ DENVER - Russell Westbrook was out with an injury and when this happens OKC loses a lot of intensity and flow. They rely a lot in Durant but he is no superman. He needs to rest and his teammates to step up too. OKC was 1.7 prematch.

Looking at the Denver side you can expect one thing for sure playing at home, a lot of intensity. Ty Lawson playing great. In my opinion and based on some variables and last games efforts and play making i predicted a small advantage for the Denver side, expecting a big start from them.

Result: The price quickly adapted to my prediction as the match progressed and with this advantage i was able do create a backup to risk a run for Denver that happened.

Key point for this long term position: Durant was clearly tired at the third quarter and as a natural result, he started missing a lot of shots.

Free time section

Music - Spotify program, to organize and listen to music(For ex: creating playlists;workout music, trading music) (PC/MOBILE).

Good trades

Gift for the readers (2014 version) nba trades

2014-01-16T11:13:00.003-08:00

I will post some new case studies tonight about nba trading. Good trades and new year guys.

Tennis trading classes are available this year from 29th of January till the end of March.

good trades
r9

Good holidays!

2013-08-02T11:26:00.000-07:00

Hello traders,

thanks for the emails and i hope you are enjoying your holidays.

Some info about the classes:

400 € / 5 days
750 € / 10 days

Live matches / Learning classes
I will make a personal plan based on your goals.
3-5 students limit

If you are interested and want more info email babypuntz@gmail.com

Some feedback.

Good trades
r9

Congratulations to Bartoli

2013-07-06T12:52:00.000-07:00

I am very happy that Bartoli won Wimbledon.
Congratulations from Babypuntz blog.
I will try to answer emails today. News for the summer coming after wimbledon.

Good trades
r9.

Day 1 Wimbledon details

2013-07-02T17:32:00.000-07:00

As promised to the readers:

Nadal vs Darcis

Avoided backing Darcis at low prices. A lot of people were doing this and was very very risky because the market would comeback when Nadal won the serv game. 50 ticks or more very quickly. This match demanded a lot of experience.
There was a lot of value laying darcis at some of those chances without much risk.

Mladenovic vs Sharapova

Mladenovic was doing a lot of work with her serv and i wanted to test her under pressure. So She was up 6.5 and i decided to back Sharapova here to create something like a backup for the tie break that would guarantee me that i would not lose a lot if Mladenovic did not fail under pressure.
Note: I decided my risk before the trade and exit points.

Voegele vs Cirstea

Difficult match to trade. Because Cirstea was making more winners but Voegele was more consistent.

In the end Cirstea won the most important points and she won.

Cornet vs King

Cornet was clearly the best player in the court after a while.Just had to find good positions to enter.

Errani vs Puig

Very difficult match to trade. The key here was to understand when the market starts to change the opinion about who is going to win the match, not who is playing better right now.
Puig was clearly playing better but the market would give Errani the edge. When the market starts to give the edge to Puig thats when you have to enter because there is a lot of people losing money, going crazy in Puig and you can earn a lot of ticks without risk.

good trades
r9

Possible Gift to the readers - Day 1 Wimbledon - 5 comments away

2013-06-25T03:34:00.000-07:00

I will not cover Wimbledon in this blog but i would like to explain the first day if there are at least 5 comments of different readers in this post. Just say something you want. For example how was your first day at wimbledon.

good trades
r9

Review of the day (22/06/13) (Final day of mini series)

2013-06-22T15:47:00.001-07:00

Halep vs Flipkens

Great match! Everything went according to my plan. I expected Halep to be much better after a great week and expected Flipkens to rely a lot on the server, and she took some time to get it going and the rain delay was perfect in my opinion.

Hampton vs Vesnina

Very very frustrating match. Hampton just lost every big battle. The match got very unpredictable at some point but vesnina showed some experience. A lot of wind.

I hope that you liked this 3 day mini series of daily reviews. More will come on the future.
Good Wimbledon.

If you have some topic that you would like me to cover just leave a comment.

good trades
r9

Review of the day

2013-06-21T11:01:00.002-07:00

Flipkens vs Muguruza

Experience and pace to win the match.

Hampton vs Wozniacki

Very complicated match. The rule that i shared yesterday was key to prevent a big loss from happening.

Wickmayer vs Vesnina

Wickmayer started very aggressively but her service was really bad. She needs to practise that service way more. This was the easiest match to trade because i have been following Vesnina from the start of this competition.

Dodig vs Lopez

Did some trades pre match that allowed me to risk a little more. During the match just did two trades.
There was a lot of value in this match since Lopez's service was getting better each game.

Seppi vs Simon

Simon was winning most of second serv points and i was not expecting that he would allow a very passive Seppi to comeback in the first set.

good trades
r9

Wta player profile / rule / nba / Question for the readers / Free time section

2013-06-20T14:55:00.004-07:00

final results today

Hello traders, how are you?

Today i was planning to talk about a study case but instead i will talk about something new.
I am going to talk about a player profile for wta that is very useful in grass.

(WTA)

Have you ever experienced a player that is holding very easily and from nothing goes 0.40 in his service game? In wta is very common and can be very dangerous especially if you back low positions.

What i usually do? I usually stick to try to get in the players that play against these new young players. Especially if there are very good prices and the young players look like they are "dominating".....
Every game is a different game but in the long term this is the best option.

My advice is to be careful with young talent. Especially players that are very aggressive and make every point a one shot challenge.

------------------------------------------------------------------

A rule that i use that can be very important for you.

Don't go against the big favorite player in very critical situations. NEVER.

This rule will make you more profitable if you follow it 100%, in my opinion.
Most of times it is better to stay away or back the fav.

Reason: It's the favorite. Market will go against you very very quickly and you will not be able to recover from the loss most of times.

There is always an exception of course...

------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA

Fantastic game 6. I had a big profit but i did not believe it was possible for the heat to get to the overtime.
They did and won the match. The price reached 1.02.
Probably the best nba match i have ever seen.

I have a very clear plan for game 7. In my opinion the heat will win easy if they can outscore in the first quarter or second by double digits. If the spurs hold near the heat the spurs are way more consistent in the 4th quarter. Their team is more balanced than the heat and if Duncan was younger he would kill the heat very easily. Heat need some size inside but that will be difficult to get because of the luxury tax, unless there is a veteran big that wants to get a ring and joins them.

-------------------------------------------------------

Question for the blog readers.

What player do you find the most diffcult to profit from?

Cibulkova for me.

--------------------------------------------------------

Free time section

good trades
r9

Tennis study case/nba finals/ value in tennis

2013-06-20T09:51:00.001-07:00

New post coming later tonight. I hope your trades are working well.
Nba finals game 7 preview later.

good trades
r9

Third set trading Study Case / How to choose a match part 2 / free time section

2013-05-18T14:18:00.001-07:00

Hello traders, how are you doing?

Today i bring you a study case that is very interesting for many reasons.
The first reason is that Halep was playing. One of mine core trading principles is to trade players that i know much better. Other core and very profitable principle is to trade matches from players that i am reading very well at the moment and to trade those players if they are in a very good mumentum and follow all the path of that players in the tournament.
I have been following Halep in the current wta tournament in Italy since the first match and this is one example of player that you want to follow. She was playing agressive and with consistency. In the long term, you win many many times following these players.

Let's take a look now at a third set trading example:

I was in profit already, so i was very comfortable at entering in riskier entries.
In this case, i felt in the third set that halep was a bit underpriced and that could be a consequence of her performance so far in the tournment, that like i said was very good.

Halep starts serving in the third set.
30.30
I said. "Perfect". The market can collapse right now because it is very confident in halep and because Jankovic was starting to make error after error, but if you took a closer look, in my opinion she was not caring about the points, so technically, she was resting. (that could generate problems too for Jankovic)

So in this case the graphs are perfect to show a possible collapse. In the left side of the graph the market collapses two times. So i had an indication of how many ticks i was going to win on the trade. Maybe from 2.7 to 1.6 if Jankovic breaks, and i would lose around from 2.7 to max 3.3 ticks if Halp holds.
So, what's the percentage of holding in 30.30 for Halep. 60%/40%? less?
Anyway this was a trade with huge value in my opinion. Jankovic Broke and the market collapsed like in the first half of the graph. Lucky? No. This happens a lot of times, but like i said i usually just like to enter in very risky positions when i am already in green zone. It depends in your trading style. I am comfortable with that.
Very profitable game. After that break i had to go and closed the trades for a very good profit. When i returned home i had a big surprise when i noticed that Halep won the match.
So there is another lesson to be learned here for the new traders. Close the trades when the trade does not have more value. How can i see that? If your player has to win a lot of games just to win some ticks. You must be out when that happen for value purposes, but of course, like some Top financial traders say, you must know when to break the rules but always respecting money management, that's very important too.

Free time Section

Music

Great cover

I hope you liked this post. Any questions just email or leave a comment

good trades
r9

New post, today.

2013-05-17T11:26:00.002-07:00

What a day for trading tennis. Halep does it again.

New topics to cover today in tennis, after Real Madrid's match.

Free time section too :)

good trades guys

Analogies - simple but powerful/Trading Philosiphy/ Free time section

2013-03-15T08:05:00.001-07:00

Hello traders how are you?

Today i would like to talk about something that i love, analogies. Analogies are great to explain a point very well.

Analogies

I love the boxing analogy.

Trading <> Boxing

on impatience:

Trading:
If you are impatient you will over trade and if you trade especially in volatile markets you will kill your profits and end the day with a loss. You will also lose a lot of energy.

Boxing: If you are impatient you will punch a lot and waste a lot of energy. You will be more vulnerable now (KO maybe?)

on rushing to trade after a loss to recover profits/money management:

Trading: You can blow your bank or get a very large loss.

Boxing: if you get hit(loss) by a punch, if you try to punch right after with less awareness you will be much more vulnerable to get KO'ed or get hit by a strong punch.

On following a profitable pattern is obvious too.

So think like a Boxer. Like if you are in a fight.Think about the consequences of your actions. If you are trading tennis, think fast ;P.

So, make your analogy, if you have some behavior problems in trading. It might help or not.

Philosophy

I would like to offer you two philosophies that i follow and i will try to explain them:

Practical Philosophy

Trading like a journey or a number of steps that you have to make. Imagine that you have a goal of making 10000€ in 4 months starting bank with 100€ or 200 €. Maybe you would feel a bit overwhelmed, so for example, what i usually do in my trading is to think of the journey in steps. If you don't have the skill to profit bigger amounts, make it in hard work. You can still beat everyone. Larry Bird (for the nba fans that read the blog :) ) is a great example of that. So think about it like this, can i follow my money management rules and make one euro? I bet you can. Can you do this 10 000 times? I bet you can and with time the compound effect will help you.
The same rule applies to bigger amounts. I have 30k€ and i want 100k€ and say that your average profit/loss trade is 100€. 100k-30k= 70k € > 70000 € / 100 € = 700 steps. Can you make this 700 times? It's up to you.

Mental Philosophy

"I don't mind waiting."

I don't mind waiting. You follow your rules and you get a normal 100€ loss for example, i don't care if it looks like i am more far from my objective/goal, because if i have infinite impatience i know i will achieve my objective one day, if i am following my trading plan and rules.Your objective might come much earlier or not.

I hope you like the post and if you have any questions or liked this post leave a comment
or email to babypuntz@gmail.com

Free time section coming soon.

good trades
r9

Prize money <-> pressure, motivation?/ Free time Section

2013-02-20T16:41:00.001-08:00

Hello traders, how are you?
It's been awhile since the last post.
The idea that i will share today is very very good, but it will work, only, if you spend some time studing motivations.So, what is it?

Prizes - Money, Cars...

Most people are driven by external motivations. The key is to find situations where huge motivations/pressure are present.
A good example for that, and recent, is Djokovic, that received more than a half million dollars to play in a tournament.(Strong pressure)
A good question to ask yourself would be, How would you feel, and how would you play if someone payed more than half million dollars for your services? Yes, that's the point. Pressure, huge pressure in "most" of cases.

Weak Motivation
What if you hear in an interview that some player dreamed about a Porsche in his teenager times for example, and Prize is a Porsche + money, and the player has big chances to win the tournament? Most of times, he will give the extra effort. The small stuff are very important and can make a difference sometimes.

I bet you will be surprised with the value in some situations : )

Free time section

This book is not very old, but it is really really good. It's in my top 3 favorites. It explains in detail the power
of decisions and gives examples and solutions for some problems (bad habits). One small decision can affect every aspect of your life.
Very powerful book.

The Compound Effect, Darren Hardy
Advice: Follow his twitter and facebook too.

Quote of the week:
If you want more, you have to become more. Jim Rohn

good trades
r9

New post tomorrow / Skype

2013-02-18T17:10:00.000-08:00

Hello traders,

I hope everything is working well for you. Tomorrow i will share some ideas, books and much more...
I will be online in skype from 8 pm to 10 pm . (19/02)

Good trades

r9

Proactive

2013-01-09T15:15:00.002-08:00

Great afternoon/night talking with traders in Skype.

Live @ skype this afternoon

2013-01-09T07:08:00.002-08:00

username: richard.nine

good trades
r9

Good strategies to improve your trading discipline

2013-01-08T10:11:00.001-08:00

Strategy 1 - Imagine that you are giving a live trading class to one student. Just play that role. The trick is to speak loudly and relax, just like a real class.

Strategy 2- Play music that you love. If you get angry because of any action or mistake, turn the volume up, so that you can't focus on your bad emotion, instead, you will focus on the music and feel good.

Good trades
r9

Pressure? Maybe

2013-01-05T16:36:00.002-08:00

Hello traders, how are you?

I hope you had a very good Christmas and i wish everyone a very good 2013.

I would like to present two scenarios and i hope i can give you new ideas to apply in your trading in the new year:

Basketball

29/12/2012

Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors

Golden State is in an impressive form. Curry is playing like an all star, Lee is playing very well and is very CONSISTENT and the other players are improving their game too. On the other hand, most of people had some hopes for this new team of Boston with some changes but they are not playing very well and their record on the league is proof of it. Golden state was 1.7 to win on that night. In my opinion the odds had a lot of value but i decided to enter later on the day. After some hours there was information that Rondo would not play and it was possible to have odds of 1.6 in golden state pre-live. To me this was huge value. My only concern was Golden State team could be a bit tired but it was not a factor on the match. The team showed a lot of energy as always. So, rondo was not going to play. If you watch Boston Celtics matches you should know that rondo drives almost all the plays and he is a big part of Boston's offensive, setting easy shots for other players. The match went as expected. Boston was taking a lot of difficult shots and making more than 50 % of it but that would not last forever and they started missing shots and golden state had a 20 point advantage by the end of 2nd half.

Details

- One team in a very good form and very good record at home.
- Curry playing like an all start and Lee's consistency.
- The other team is not playing well.
- Boston PG was going to miss the match and he drives almost all the points. Team depends a lot on him to set easy shots for the other players -> team will have problems getting easy shots and to create other opportunities.

Tennis

Players that are paid to play a tournament.

On the last months some events have made me think more about this topic. I was motivated to write about it after hearing that Djokovic was payed 800 000 € to play in Abu Dhabi,
according to a TV commentator. The question that i would like to ask you is,
How would you play if someone pay you that quantity of money?
I would take every match very seriously and do a good job for sure.
Is this information useful for trading? Totally. Attitude is everything in every sport. I
love players that give everything. If we have attitude + skill we can get a lot of value if we are patient and we wait for The big fish ; ) Sometimes he will not appear but in the long run we win.

I love this quote from Ed Seykota
"Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market."

Free Time Section

Movie:
The Hobbit -I enjoyed a lot this movie.

If you liked the post, leave a comment please.

good trades & year
r9

Happy new year : )

2013-01-03T16:22:00.004-08:00

Hello traders,
happy 2013 : )
I will make a new post tomorrow. Includes three case studies.

Good trades
r9

Gift from Richard - Babypuntz students (free access)

2012-11-22T14:03:00.001-08:00

Babypuntz-students is now free for everyone.
Some material is not updated because markets changed but there are some good ideas. I don't use anymore some of the ideas and systems.
If you liked some idea leave a comment.

Babypuntz students

Free time section/nba/Skype tomorrow @ 9:30 pm/quote of the day

2012-11-22T13:41:00.001-08:00

Recommended movie

It's a good movie, not a great movie, but i recommend it because of its main message: Focus more on the process, not the final result.
Peaceful warrior:

Some thoughts about nba teams:

Celtics - Very irregular by now.
Miami - I have a feeling that they are not giving 100 % in the regular season so far. Relaxing for playoffs?
Okc -. They are adapting to the new players, but they are getting better. They will miss harden in the 4th quarter against big teams. Russel is not very good taking decisions near the end. Last night for example.
Dallas - One of the teams that will have some value this season. They can get good odds and be very comfortable in some matches.
Lakers - I would avoid it if you don't have a clear plan. Very unpredictable in "some" matches. It takes a lot of matches for the team to get it going and learn the new systems. If you study the matches that lakers lost, there are some patterns. Take some time to study it.

I will talk about other teams on the future.

----------------------------

I will be online on skype tomorrow at 9:30 pm for one hour and half. If you want like to talk
about sports, books, movies, things that may help your trading say hello.

-----------------------------

Quote of the day

Success comes from knowing that you did your best to become the best that you are
capable of becoming.
John Wooden

good trades
r9

Skype

2012-11-10T08:12:00.002-08:00

I will be in skype @ 6 pm uk time.
add: richard.nine

good trades
r9

Take some time to think about this..

2012-11-09T14:44:00.002-08:00

"You cannot fight against the ego and win, just as you cannot fight against darkness. The light of consciousness is all that is necessary. You are that light." A New Earth, Eckhart tolle

r9

Expectation

2012-10-31T18:10:00.002-07:00

Hello traders,

Tomorrow i will make a new post. Today i give you this important definition.

Expectation:
In the case of uncertainty, expectation is what is considered the most likely to happen. An expectation, which is a belief that is centered on the future, may or may not be realistic. A less advantageous result gives rise to the emotion of disappointment. If something happens that is not at all expected it is a surprise.

good trades
r9