Sporting An Argument

Why Jerry Rice is not the Greatest WR of All Time

2013-08-14T14:00:00.004-05:00

Blasphemy! Ridiculous! What an idiot! Does this guy know anything? I can't wait to comment...

You likely had a few of those thoughts running through your head when you read the title of this post, and frankly, I don't blame you. One doesn't have to go far to find a debate on where to rank sports figures in their sport. Whether it's a top ten players of all-time list on the internet, a statistical analysis of Jordan vs. Lebron, or the yearly top 5 quarterbacks of all-time debate on ESPN, there isn't a single sports figure whose all-time greatest tag isn't debated, except for Jerry Rice.
For most sports, the debate begins between the generations. If you bring up Lebron James, someone reminds you that Michael Jordan has 6 rings. If you make a claim that Tiger is the most dominant golfer ever, someone reminds you that he still hasn't passed Jack. When it comes to baseball, there are 3 different greatest home run hitters of all-time depending on who you talk to. Favre, Manning and Marino are statistically the best quarterbacks of all-time, yet Elway, Montana and Brady have the superbowl rings. Even when you try to to talk about boxing, this happens...

It's easy to get sucked into debates like that and sometimes they can go on for hours. Hell, I've seen Coming to America many, many times, but I've never noticed until now that Cuba Gooding Jr. is the boy getting the haircut. Perhaps I was so into the discussion that my brain filtered out what I was seeing. Nonetheless, while you can hear debates like this anywhere, you won't find an argument like this about the Greatest Receiver of All-Time. There is always one answer - Jerry Rice. Occasionally you'll get some idiot making a claim or the classic what-if Jerry Rice was drafted by the Jets and Al Toon went to the 49ers line, but it's time for someone to dig deeper.
Now that I'm finished explaining how foolish it would be to argue against Jerry Rice, I'm going to do it. I will start by saying I'm not calling Jerry Rice a compiler by any means, but it is my belief that Rice is considered the best receiver for simply two reasons. First, he played 20 seasons, in which he was able to set pretty much every receiving record in NFL history. Second, Rice had two of the greatests single seasons ever in 1987 when he recorded 22 TD's in only 12 games and in 1995, when he amassed 1,848 yards and 15 TD's on 122 receptions. If you exrapolate his 1987 numbers into a 16 game season, it would be the greatest single season in NFL history, at any position.
You can't argue that Rice put up career numbers that were untouchable for years, but I want to take a deeper look into Jerry Rice's per game production vs other great WR's of the modern era. I gathered career statistics for arguably the top 5 wide receivers of my lifetime, including Rice. Using simple math, I put these statistics into a season average based on a 16 game season. Below are these season averages for the receivers which I won't name at this point.

	Rec/16gm	Yds/16gm	TD/16gm
Receiver A	92.8	1227.8	10.8
Receiver B	81.8	1209.0	10.4
Receiver C	72.1	1122.3	11.4
Receiver D	78.8	1164.1	11.2
Receiver E	75.3	950.4	8.9

Before you go any further, rank those receivers based on those numbers. All the receivers played a minimum of 13 seasons and had 900+ receptions, 13,500+ yards, and 125+ TD in their career. By now you should already have an idea of what they should be ranked, so here is what the composite ranking shows:

	Rec/16gm	Yds/16gm	TD/16gm	Rank
Receiver A	1.0	1.0	3.0	1.7
Receiver B	2.0	2.0	4.0	2.7
Receiver C	5.0	4.0	1.0	3.3
Receiver D	3.0	3.0	2.0	2.7
Receiver E	4.0	5.0	5.0	4.7

It seems pretty obvious that by just using the career averages Receiver A is the best statistical receiver. But let's add another factor. A great player typically puts up big numbers year in and year out, so I've also compiled the statistics for each receiver during his best 5 year stretch in the NFL.

	Rec/5yr	Yds/5yr	TD/5yr
Receiver A	563	7594	62
Receiver B	419	7298	83
Receiver C	456	7062	60
Receiver D	447	6465	65
Receiver E	475	5855	65

Adding this factor into the above composite rank, you get the following.

	Rec/16	Yds/16	TD/16	Rec/5yr	Yds/5yr	TD/5yr	Comp Rank
Receiver A	1	1	3	1	1	4	1.8
Receiver B	2	2	4	5	2	1	2.7
Receiver C	5	4	1	3	3	5	3.5
Receiver D	3	3	2	4	4	2	3.0
Receiver E	4	5	5	2	5	2	3.8

After those numbers are added, it still is obvious that Recevier A put up the best numbers per season and had the best 5 year stretch of any receiver in the group as well. Now for the final set of data, the season best numbers for each receiver. And since I know you are itching to see who these receivers are, I'll give you the names now.

	Best Rec	Best Yds	Best TD
Harrison	143	1722	15
Rice	122	1848	29*
Moss	111	1632	23
Owens	100	1451	16
Carter	122	1371	17

*Rice's 1987 season TD total was 22, but I used his projected total of 29 for a 16-game season.

Now that you know who the receivers are, I'm sure you likely will re-rank them in your mind, but before you do so, here are the final composite rankings.

	Rec/16	Yds/16	TD/16	Rec/5yr	Yds/5yr	TD/5yr	Best Rec	Best Yds	Best TD	Comp Rank
Harrison	1	1	3	1	1	4	1	2	5	2.1
Rice	2	2	4	5	2	1	2	1	1	2.2
Moss	5	4	1	3	3	5	4	3	2	3.3
Owens	3	3	2	4	4	2	5	4	4	3.4
Carter	4	5	5	2	5	2	2	5	3	3.7

If you haven't already realized, the player you have thought was the best receiver based on the stats above was not Rice, but lifelong Colt Marvin Harrison. I repeat, Jerry Rice is not the greatest WR of all-time. For those that remember, Marvin Harrison was an unstoppable weapon for Peyton Manning in his prime and should be headed to the hall of fame. I can't argue against the numbers Rice compiled over his 20 year career, but I do have an answer for the arguments that are surely about to come.

Argument #1 - Marvin Harrison was made by Peyton Manning

It can be said that all great receivers need a quarterback to throw them the ball, but this argument is the weakest of them all. While Marvin Harrison had Manning throwing to him, Rice had Joe Montana and Steve Young throughout his career.

Argument #2 - Teams throw more now than when they did when Rice played

This may very well be true, but the stats show that receiver production has been very similar in the past 25 years. Here is a breakdown of several years and the amount of players that reached receiving milestones in those years:

	1000+ yards	100+ Receptions	10+ TD
1987	18	1	6
1991	15	9	10
1995	23	1	6
1999	26	2	8
2002	22	5	4
2007	23	6	9
2012	20	6	10

First and foremost, I again extrapolated the numbers in Rice's historic 1987 season to account for the shortened schedule. As you can see, receivers during Rice's best years put up similar numbers to receivers in Harrison's prime years.

So in conclusion, it is my belief that Marvin Harrison, not Jerry Rice, should be considered the greatest WR to play in the NFL. Harrison clearly loacked the longevity that Rice had, but I myself don't put as much stock into career numbers as most do. I likely won't get much backing on this, but when you break it down, the numbers don't lie. Harrison is eligible for the hall of fame next year and it would be a travesty if he is not a first-ballot inductee.

Is It Time To End The Bo Ryan Era?

2013-03-22T15:32:00.001-05:00

I'll preface by saying I have been one of Bo Ryan's biggest supporters since his arrival to Madison in 2001 but, like everything in life, there's a time to move on. The Badgers' most recent early exit from the tournament may, and in my opinion should, fire up the talks of finding a replacement for the long-time successful Badgers' basketball coach. While those who remember Badger basketball pre-Bennett likely find this to be blasphemous, the direction of our basketball program must be called into question.

Don't get me wrong, Bo Ryan has turned Wisconsin basketball into a perennial top-25 program. Under Ryan, the Badgers have been to the NCAA Tournament all 12 years, as well as claiming 3 Big Ten regular season titles and 2 Big Ten conference tournaments titles. Ryan has led the Badgers to ten 20-win seasons and is among the top in winning percentage among all D-1 coaches. Needless to say, Bo Ryan is one of the best coaches in the country when it comes to regular season success.

That success, however, has gone in the other direction over the past few seasons. This is a direct result of two trends, one which is changing and another that isn't. During the last 10 years, the Big Ten has gone from one of the worst conferences in college basketball to arguably the best. Teams like Michigan State and Ohio State continue to find success come tournament time. Programs like Indiana and Michigan are rising back to national powerhouses as well. So why have the Badgers stayed stagnant, placing 3rd or 4th in the conference each of the past 5 seasons? Well the answer is simple - Bo Ryan refuses to change.

Division-1 college basketball is not the same game it was when Ryan took over a Badgers squad a year removed from a Final Four run. That Badgers Final Four team was the epitomy of team basketball, a style which won championships. However, as time changed and basketball became more about recruiting and less about style of play, Bo Ryan refused to change with the times. The state of Wisconsin watched Marquette guard Vander Blue single-handedly avoid an upset just a day before they watched Wisconsin get upset. For those that remember, Blue had committed to Wisconsin only to decommit later because of comments by Wisconsin fans... well, sort of. Some people believe that was solely the reason the Madison native change his mind, but others believe there is more to the story.

It isn't a secret that Bo Ryan makes sure everyone knows that he is in charge. Unfortunately, this approach can be a red flag for recruits looking at Wisconsin. Vander Blue used the "message board" debacle as a reason to decommit from the Badgers, but Ryan's unwillingness to adjust his style to accomodate a player of Blue's talent clearly weighed into the decision. Additionally, Ryan has not made any attempts to dismiss the notion that he refuses to recruit players that don't fit his system. Now isn't it a coaches job to recruit the best players and teach them how to succeed in the current system? Or possibly to modify the current system to get the most out of the players you have in it?

The tip of the iceberg, when it comes to Ryan's lack of appeal to recruits, may have come last spring. It may be a story in the past for most fans, but it's a story that competing coaches have not forgot and likely make sure recruits don't either. Jarrod Uthoff, a redshirt freshman, announced that he planned to transfer from the Badgers. In response, Bo Ryan blocked schools from communicating with Uthoff and only backed off when he subsequently found himself showered with media scrutiny. Eventually, Uthoff transferred to Iowa without issue, but the episode is clearly ammunition for Big Ten coaches recruting against Ryan.

Ryan simply has run his course in Wisconsin. He has built upon Dick Bennett's Final Four run and turned Wisconsin basketball into a winning program, but there are no signs that the program can take the next step under Ryan's control. In their 12 NCAA tournament appearances under Ryan, the Badgers have only advanced past the Sweet 16 once, back in 2005. As you can see below, much of Ryan's success in the Big Ten also came prior to the 2006 season, when he still had some of Dick Bennetts recruits and Devin Harris, who is unquestionably the best player to ever play under Ryan.

Season	Team	Overall	Conference	Standing	Postseason
2001–02	Wisconsin	19–13	11–5	T-1st	NCAA 2nd Round
2002–03	Wisconsin	24–8	12–4	1st	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2003–04	Wisconsin	25–7	12–4	T–2nd	NCAA 2nd Round
2004–05	Wisconsin	25–9	11–5	3rd	NCAA Elite Eight
2005–06	Wisconsin	19–12	9–7	T–4th	NCAA 1st Round
2006–07	Wisconsin	30–6	13–3	2nd	NCAA 2nd Round
2007–08	Wisconsin	31–5	16–2	1st	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2008–09	Wisconsin	20–13	10–8	T–4th	NCAA 2nd Round
2009–10	Wisconsin	24–9	13–5	4th	NCAA 2nd Round
2010–11	Wisconsin	25–9	13–5	3rd	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2011–12	Wisconsin	26–10	12–6	4th	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2012–13	Wisconsin	23–11	12–6	T-4th	NCAA 2nd Round

If this isn't the end for Ryan, his last hope may rest on the shoulders of Sam Dekker. The Badgers have reached a plateau, one that only a superstar player, which goes against everything Ryan preaches, can get them beyond. This may all just be the ranting of an upset Badger fan, but it should raise these questions to all Badger fans:

Are 20 win seasons and NCAA tournament bids enough?

Is Bo Ryan capable of taking the Wisconsin program to the next level?

I surely don't think so...

Erd's 7 Last Minute March Madness Tips

2013-03-20T14:28:00.004-05:00

We are a day away from what I believe is the most exciting four day stretch of the sports year. Brackets are busted, hopes are shattered and bragging rights are on the line. Whether you are filling out your bracket for fun or have some serious coin riding on it, your goal is still the same - the perfect bracket. It is nearly impossible to do this, but here are some tips that might just get you close enough to win your pool:

1. Easy on the chalk and cinderellas

The majority of people either err on the side of caution or make too many risky picks. If you fill out a bracket going 100% chalk, you will surprisingly do alright, but you rarely will win a pool. There will be upsets, it's only natural. However, going too far in the other direction will only get you more trouble. Despite anomalies like last year, you should always be advancing #1 and #2 seeds past the first round. The same should go with #3 and #4 seeds, the reward is not worth the risk. Also, don't get caught up in the 12-5, 11-6, etc. upset statistics (I'll tell you why later). Bottom line is you should always have 3-4 upsets in the first round and a couple in the second round, but be wary having any more than that.

2. Be aware of trends

The most common trend is the 12-5 upset, but there is also another trend which you must be aware of. That trend is the seeding of mid-majors. Over the past 10 years, we have seen mid-majors go from cinderellas to powerhouses (Gonzaga, Butler, etc.), but we have also seen mid-major seeding improve as well. For example, this year Gonzaga, St. Louis, VCU, Creighton and Butler are all very good teams, however, in the past they typically would have still been seeded low due to their strength of schedule. This year, they are seeded much higher than their power conference counterparts. Let's take 2013 Creighton and 2006 Bradley as examples. The Bluejays went 27-7 and won the MVC and received a #7 seed, while 26-8 Oregon out of the PAC-12 received a #12 seed. In 2006, 20-10 Bradley, out of the MVC, received a #13 seed, while 20-10 California, from the PAC-10, received a #7 seed. Bradley went on to upset Kansas and Pittsburgh that year while California lost their opening round game. That is just one example of why you need to be wary of the mid-major cinderellas this year and beyond. The good mid-major teams now get the respect when it comes to seeding, so when it comes to cinderellas this year, you should be looking at under-seeded power conference teams like Minnesota and Oregon.

3. Postseason success goes a long way

There are quite a few people who will look at the past year or two of the NCAA tournament and pick teams that did well the previous year. This is definitely a wise thing to do. However, most people forget (or likely don't even know) that there are a few postseason tournaments for college hoops. Teams that have had success in these tournaments, have typically gone on to have success in the NCAA tournament in the following years. Here's a breakdown of these suchs teams:

2008 NIT Final Four: Ohio State, UMass, Florida, Mississippi
2009 NIT Final Four: Penn State, Baylor, San Diego State, Notre Dame
2010 NIT Final Four: Dayton, North Carolina, Mississippi, Rhode Island
2011 NIT FInal Four: Wichita State, Alabama, Colorado, Washington State

2008 CBI Final Four: Tulsa, Bradley, Virginia, Houston
2009 CBI Final Four: Oregon State, UTEP, Richmond, Stanford
2010 CBI Final Four: VCU, St Louis, Boston, Princeton
2011 CBI Final Four: Oregon, Creighton, Boise State, UCF

Teams in italics have won a game in the subsequent years and teams in bold have reached the Sweet 16 in the same time frame. And here are some results of these teams in the following years:

2012: Colorado #11 seed upsets UNLV, Creighton #8 beats Alabama , #9 St Louis beats Memphis
2011: #2 San Diego State in Sweet 16, #11 VCU in Final Four, #12 Richmond in Sweet 16
2010: #3 Baylor in Elite Eight

As you can see, teams have generally succeeded in the NCAA Tournament following a deep run in the NIT or CBI in prior years. Here's a look at last year's Final Fours:

2012 NIT Final Four: Stanford, Minnesota, Washington, UMass
2012 CBI Final Four: Pittsburgh, Washington State, Butler, Oregon State

The endgame here is that you are aware of the success of these teams. We have seen VCU and St. Louis rise to #5 and #4 seeds respectively. Oregon, Creighton, Boise State, Colorado, Wichita State, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Butler all were in the Final Four of the CBI or NIT in 2011 or 2012 and are all in the NCAA Tournament this year. Don't be surpised to see a few of these teams in the Sweet 16 or pull off a big upset.

4. Use your resources and your gut

There are plenty of good sources of information out there at your disposal. Kenpom.com is a great site for those who love statistical analysis, while betting sites will give you the insight of some of the best minds when it comes to picking games. In the end, however, go with what you have seen with your own eyes. If you have watched a team play multiple times and know what they are about, don't let what you see on paper sway your opinion. Last year, everyone was saying how good Missouri was and how far they would go. I had seen them play a few times and saw some flaws in their game. While I didn't predict the Norfolk State upset, I did have them losing to Florida in the next game (there was another contributing reason to this which I will get to next). Just rememember, go with your gut, because in the end you will regret it if you don't.

5. Studs win big games

One thing that can never be stressed enough is how important it is to have NBA talent on the teams you pick. As I mentioned earlier, I picked Florida to go far last year because they had NBA potential in Bradley Beal, Patric Young and Erik Murphy. Kentucky, who was littered with NBA lotter picks, won the whole thing. This year teams like Michigan (Trey Burke, Glenn Robinson, Tim Hardaway JR), Kansas (Ben McLemore, Jeff Withey, Elijah Johnson) and NC State (CJ Leslie, Ty Warren, Lorenzo Brown, Rodney Purvis, Richard Howell) are full of NBA prospects. These teams may have underachieved in the regular season, but they have the NBA talent that can take them all the way to a Final Four.

6. College basketball is about the coaches

You might be wondering why I am saying this when I just mentioned it is the players that win the big games. Well, it's a little bit of both. When it comes to March, there are some coaches that it is foolish to bet against. Even if you don't believe Michigan State is a Final Four contender this year, you should still be penciling them into the Sweet 16 just because Tom Izzo is there. Some coaches know how to get their team prepared and get the job done. Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Brad Stevens...these guys simply know how to win in the tournament, so don't overlook them.

7. TV analysts have an audience to entertain

My final tip somewhat goes back to something I said in tip #1, don't pick too many upsets. The Jay Bilas' and Dick Vitale's of the world know a lot about basketball, that can't be debated, but what they say on those selection shows can't be taken too seriously. When an analysts says, "I could see Bucknell making a run", it doesn't mean they believe Bucknell will win a game, simply that any team could make a run. They are paid to give insight into the lesser-known teams, so don't buy into the talk about how good Nate Wolters is or how well IONA matches up with Ohio State. If you have a reason to pick the upset go for it, but don't let the talk on TV influence you into making too many decisions. (BTW, Nate Wolters is a NBA talent, but so are several guys on Michigan, so pick wisely).

Well I hope you take these tips and throw them out the window, because bonus tip #8 is don't change your mind. Stick with what you have and enjoy the ride. If, however, you really think I know what I'm talking about, here is my full bracket for all to see:

The Packers Pre-Draft Plan

2013-03-08T11:16:00.002-06:00

It's that time of the year when everyone likes to play NFL GM. A plethora of mock drafts can be found with a simple google search. Every second of the NFL combine can be seen online. Youtube is full of highlights of nearly every prospect out there. We are in a new age where the NFL fan has nearly as much access to the same information as NFL head offices do. I like to play GM as much as the rest of them, so every year I go through my offseason plans for the Green Bay Packers. My exact plan will never happen, but it's always fun to pretend. But before we can even get into the draft, we need to look at the depth chart and what can be done prior to the draft. We'll start off by breaking down are situation and each position:

QB
The Packers have arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. Rodgers is due for a big payday, but there is no doubt the Packers will get it done. There is no need to focus on backup quarterbacks at this time. Without Rodgers, this team will go nowhere.

HB
Although we are a pass first offense, a reliable runningback is a need for GB. DuJuan Harris came on well at the end of last year and Alex Green is coming off an injury, so a veteran who can pound it between the tackles is a priority. It is unlikely the Packers will pursue Cedric Benson, but there are several big names out there that the Packers could be looking at. Steven Jackson, Michael Turner and Ahmad Bradshaw all are looking for jobs this offseason.

WR
Greg Jennings will likely not be a Packer next season. Franchising Jennings would have eaten up a majority of the cap space and its unlikely we look to sign him. Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb alone are a top-5 receiving corps. Look for the Pack to target a WR in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft to add some depth.

TE
The biggest question remaining this offseason is what to do with Jermichael Finley. Finley and his agent have come out and said a pay cut is not an option. Finley has been a liability both on and off the field, so it's likely Ted Thompson will cut ties with the tight end. This move will free up nearly $9 mil in cap space, allowing the Packers to pursue other players in free agency. Tom Crabtree and Andrew Quarless wait in the wings, but expect the Packers to take a tight end in the early rounds if Finley is indeed let go.

OL
Offensive line is the biggest need for the Packers this offseason, particularly left tackle. TJ Lang and Josh Sitton are reliable at the guard position and the Packers' brass is optimisitc about Evan Dietrich-Smith transitioning into the center role. Bryan Bulaga will be the starting right tackle in 2013, but he needs to show he can be reliable. Marshall Newhouse and Derek Sherrod are a liability though at the left tackle position, so expect the Packers to address this issue. Jake Long is on the market and the cap space freed up by cutting ties with Jennings and/or Finley could make Long in a Packers jersey a possibility. It is also a deep draft at OL, so expect a draft pick or two to be used on depth at this position.

DL
Injuries to Mike Neal and Jerel Worthy left the Packers thin on the defensive line last year. BJ Raji, Ryan Pickett and CJ Wilson remain at the top of the depth chart, but expect Worthy and Neal to see an increase in snaps this year. Depth on the defensive line will be addressed in the draft, but don't expect it until the final day of the draft.

LB
injuries also left the Packers thin at linebacker as well. Nick Perry, AJ Hawk, Desmond Bishop and Clay Matthews are slated to begin the season as the starters, however 30 games were missed total amongst them last season (AJ Hawk was the only one to play 16 games). If they stay healthy, the Packers will get solid play from the position this year, but depth is a concern for sure. AJ Hawk may be on his way out of Green Bay as well, so if an Alec Ogletree or Jarvis Jones falls to the Packers at #26, they may consider a replacement for Hawk, but either way linebacker will be targeted in the draft.

DB
Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Casey Hawyard lead a solid group of cornerbacks, but
the vacancy left by Charles Woodson will be the biggest competition in the offseason. MD Jennings, Morgan Burnett and Jerron McMillian are in line to see playing time at the safety position. There are bigger needs elsewhere for the Pack, but the safety position could be addressed in free agency or day two of the draft.

Now that I've outlined the situation at each position, here is the plan the Packers should take leading up to the draft:

1. Release Finley - Finley simply is too much of a hit on the cap to keep around. The $8.75 million freed up by this move will allow us to pursue some big name free agents.

2. Sign Jake Long - Long is an elite left tackle who is coming off an injury. Signing Long will likely require a contract somewhere around 6 years for $60 million, but most forget he's only 27 years old. Locking up a left tackle of Long's caliber would make Rodgers a happy man.

3. Sign Aaron Rodgers to a new contract - It is time for the Packers to lock up #12 to a long term deal. The bar has been set by Joe Flacco's deal, so Rodgers' deal will be above that.

4. Sign a free agent runningback - The ideal candidate is Steven Jackson, who should still be considered a top runningback in the league. A 2-year $11 milliion contract could get the workhorse in Green Bay. Michael Turner and Ahmad Bradshaw could help the team, but only at a discounted price.

If the Packers can get these moves done, it would put them in position to approach the draft with more freedom. Tight end would need to be addressed early in the draft, but Ted Thompson would be able take the best defensive player available in the mid rounds. As usual, I'll give you my Packers mock draft, so stay tuned for that in another post.

Erd's 2013 NFL Mock Draft

2013-02-25T14:46:00.001-06:00

1. Chiefs - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

The Chiefs probably wish they could fast forward a year and be choosing between Jadeveon Clowney and Johnny Manziel, but unfortunately for them they are likely choosing between Joeckel and Eric Fisher. This all comes down to who they have higher on their board. We may see Fisher pass Joeckel in the coming weeks, but for now, it's Joeckel.

Boocub's Pick: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

2. Jaguars - Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

The Jags have a lot of choices here, but likely they will go with a defensive lineman. With the pending news on Star Lotulelei's heart condition, the Jags will probably feel safer taking Floyd from within the state. They passed on a certain Florida Gator back in 2010, but this time, they'll take the Gator.

Boocub's Pick: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

3. Raiders - Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

The Raiders are in need of a pass rush and Werner is considered the best pass rusher in the draft. They may choose to go with Lotulelei, Damontre Moore, or Ezekial Ansah, but Werner probably is the best fit.

Boocub's Pick: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

4. Eagles - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

There is no question that the Eagles need to improve their offensive line, it's just a matter of which prospect they take. Warmack's footwork and quickness are his strength, which could make him a good fit in Chip Kelly's offense. The Eagles may also go with Fisher here, or possibly surprise with Lane Johnson, who had a great showing at the combine.

Boocub's Pick: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

5. Lions - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

Often draft needs are dependant upon the talent in your division. The Lions need to find an answer to the Cutler-Marshall combo in Chicago and Aaron Rodgers & Co. in Green Bay. Milliner has the size that NFL teams are looking for, so I find it unlikely the Lions pass on him here.

Boocub's Pick: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

6. Browns - Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon

I think this is where we will find our first trade of the draft. Look for the Bills to move up ahead of the Cardinals to take Geno Smith. The Browns could possibly go with Geno Smith here, but I think it's more likely the wait and look for a QB in Round 2 or 3. The pass rush is a concern, so Moore would be a logical fit. Again, word is still out on Star Lotulelei's heart condition, which could drop him significantly. If he is cleared, the Browns could go with him here or possibly Ezekial Ansah. UPDATE: I previously had Damontre Moore here, but following his abysmal performance at the combine, I have him dropping. Dion Jordan shoots up the this spot with his solid combine performance.

Boocub's Pick: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M

7. Cardinals - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

Despite blowing smoke about Matt Barkley, the Cardinals would be ecstatic to have the choice between Fisher and Geno Smith here. Some believe the Cardinals covet Geno Smith, others say they won't take a quarterback here. I'm predicting Buffalo leapfrogs Arizona to take Smith, leaving the Cardinals still happy to get Fisher. Either way, we all know they aren't taking Barkley here.

Boocub's Pick: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

8. Bills - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

As mentioned earlier, I think we'll Buffalo move up to #6 to get Geno Smith. The Bills are in drastic need of a franchise QB, and clearly Ryan Fitzpatrick is not that man. They could stay put and take Keenan Allen here and hope for Barkley or Glennon to fall to them in 2nd, but they likely would be willing to part with a 3rd or 4th rounder to move up for Smith. If the Bills indeed go with Smith here, they will probably try to grab Tavon Austin or Robert Woods in the 2nd round to help him out.

Boocub's Pick: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

9. Jets - Ezekial Ansah, DE, BYU

The Jets have serious needs after some cuts to clear cap space. Star Lotulelei again is still in play, but a heart condition is not something GM's will want to take a chance on. Ansah could fill a need for the Jets and may be the best player available on their board here as all. Jarvis Jones, Barkevious Mingo, and Dion Jordan are other names that may be taken in this spot.

Boocub's Pick: Ezekial Ansah, DE, BYU

10. Titans - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

Just when the Titans thought they wouldn't have to face an elite QB in their division twice a year, Andrew Luck came around. The Titans needs to bolster their pass defense and Vaccaro is the top choice here. It may be a little high, but they have a need to fill. Vaccaro is solid and a good showing at the combine may help the Titans validate taking him here.

Boocub's Pick: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

11. Chargers - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

I've seen Johnson here in multiple mocks and for good reason. The Chargers need to improve their line and Johnson only helped his stock at the combine. The Chargers could also go with best player available be here, but the need is offensive line. If Eric Fisher or Chance Warmack are still on the board here somehow, expect the Chargers to go with one of them.

Boocub's Pick: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

12. Dolphins - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

The Dolphins have four picks on Friday, so expect them to go with the best player available here an fill needs in rounds 2 and 3. Lotulelei could still be on the board here even if his heart condition is not serious. This pick would actually help the Dolphins quite a bit. If Lotulelei's heart condition is a threat to his NFL career, look for Barkevious Mingo here.

Boocub's Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

13. Buccaneers - Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan will tear up the Bucs secondary if they don't address it in the draft. This pick could come down between Rhodes, Desmond Trufant, and Johnthan Banks. Tuesday's combine results could be the deciding factor for who the Bucs go with. For now, Rhodes seems to be highest on most big boards, but if that changes, expect this pick to change.

Boocub's Pick: Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State

14. Panthers - Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

The Panthers improved their linebacking group by taking Luke Kuechly in last year's draft and are looking for Jon Beason to stay healthy and be productive this season. The Panthers would likely go with safety Kenny Vaccaro if he's still around, otherwise look for them to add some depth up front. Lotulelei would not fall past here if he's cleared, but if he's already gone, Barkevious Mingo would probably be the pick. I'm gonna go out on limb though and say the Panthers take the trending Cordarrelle Patterson to play across from (and to eventually replace) Steve Smith.

Boocub's Pick: Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

15. Saints - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

The Saints probably will be looking to reload their defense if they do indeed switch to a 3-4. They have a couple options here with Mingo, Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, or Sheldon Richardson. Mingo may be the biggest project, but may also have the biggest upside. This could be a toss-up, but MIngo's performance at the combine likely assured he will not fall past the Saints here.

Boocub's Pick: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

16. Rams - Keenan Allen, WR, California

The Rams are the only team currently with multiple first round picks, which always leads to the possibility of them moving up. This year's draft, however, is deeper than it is top-heavy, so I expect they will stay put. The Rams have the luxury of taking best player available here and addressing a need with pick #22. It seems the Rams are committed to Sam Bradford, so it's logical they find someone here to help him. Whether that is jonathan Cooper to protect him or Keenan Allen to give him a legitimate target is the question. With a few teams in need of a WR between pick #16 and #22, I expect the Rams to take the WR here and hope for Cooper, or possibly DJ Fluker, at #22.

Boocub's Pick: Johnathan Cooper, G, North Carolina

17. Steelers - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

The Steelers will definitely be happy with Jones falling to them at #17. They are in need of a pass rusher and Jones would fit. Jones could've solidifed a spot in the top 10, but his decision to not compete in drills at the combine could cause him to fall on draft boards. A solid pro day might push Jones back into the top 10, but for now, I have him going here. If Jones is gone and they don't like the pass rushers on the board, Pittsburgh would likely target a WR.

Boocub's Pick: Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon

18. Cowboys - Johnathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

This is another pick that fits a need with the best player on the board. The Cowboys are likely to get a deal worked out with Tony Romo soon, and drafting an interior lineman to protect him is a necessity. The other possibility here is Sheldon Richardson, but offensive line is the glaring need for Dallas.

Boocub's Pick: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

19. Giants - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

The Giants have some needs in the draft, but they will likely be enticed to take a player like Richardson if he falls to them. DJ Fluker is probably a better pick to fill their needs, but the Giants are willing to forego needs to take a top 10 talent at #19. A cornerback or linebacker is also a possibility for the Giants here.

Boocub's Pick: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

20. Bears - DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama

Jay Cutler is a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback when he has time to throw, but unfortunately he hasn't had much of that during his time in Chicago. The Bears will get great value with Fluker here, so I don't see any other logical pick for them. They could surprise and take Tyler Eifert to give Cutler another target, but that still wouldn't help them as much as an OT. The Bears also need to beginning finding successors for their aging defense, but I'd be surprised if they go that route with this pick.

Boocub's Pick: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

21. Bengals - Alec Ogletree, OLB, Georgia

There will be no surprise here if the Bengals take Alec Ogletree. Most scouts agree he has top 10 talent, but off-field issues are a concern. The Bengals, however, make a point to overlook off-field issues. Whether they just want to take the best talent available or they want to improve their arrests total, it has paid off as of late, especially with the emergence of last year's undrafted rookie Vontaze Burfict (whom I urged my Packers to take). If Ogletree doesn't get snatched up earlier in the draft, this would be my most confident pick in the #20-#32 range.

Boocub's Pick: Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU

22. Rams (from Redskins) - Eric Reid, FS, LSU

I projected the Rams to go WR-OL with their first round picks, but with Fluker and Cooper both gone, I look for them to address another need. The Rams have the tough task of gameplanning for Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson now, so they need to address their free safety position. Reid is know for being an aggressive all-out player, which is something they could use in their secondary. This may be reach in some people's eyes, but it may just be the right pick for the Rams here.

Boocub's Pick: Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia

23. Vikings - Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

We are still awaiting a conclustion to the Percy Harvin drama in Minnesota, but assuming it ends in them cutting ties with him, they will be looking for a WR. Actually, either way they should be looking for a WR. The Vikings need more vertical threats to prevent teams from putting 9 guys in the box to stop Adrian Peterson. Tavon Austin would be a better replacement for Percy Harvin than complement to him, so Robert Woods would be more likely here if Harvin stays around. Another possibility is that the Vikings take Manti Te'o to improve their linebacking group. Even better, the Vikings could bring back their loveboat and get some pictures of Te'o on it. Seing Te'o with real women could put to rest some of the recent questions regarding him.

Boocub's Pick: Keenan Allen, WR, California

24. Colts - Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M

The Colts could use some help at CB, but Moore could help them in the pass rush as well. I previously had Moore going much higher, but his performance at the combine has him slipping on draft boards. Moore could bring his stock back up at his pro day, but for now, the Colts are happy to get him at #24. Johnthan Banks or Desmond Trufant are the other likely options here.

Boocub's Pick: Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina

25. Seahawks - Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

Seattle does not have any glaring holes, which is a luxury when it comes to draft time. Their two biggest needs are probably an interior defensive lineman and wide receiver. There are quite a few options for Pete Carroll here at DT. Short, Jonnathan Hankins, and multiple guys named Williams could all be a possibility here, but I like Carroll to go out and get Short.

Boocub's Pick: Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

26. Packers - Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU

Most draft boards I've seen have the Packers taking Eddie Lacy, Manti Te'o or a WR, but I don't see that happening. Lacy is a great talent, but the Packers are pass first team. I have my doubts about Te'o and I am hoping they don't go there. I think this pick really comes down to what they do with Jermichael Finley and Greg Jennings. If Finley goes, I will immediately change this pick to Tyler Eifert. Even if Jennings is gone, the Packers likely won't address WR until late in the draft. So for now, I have my Packers taking Minter over Te'o, but Eifert is waiting in the wings. Another possible choice is Barrett Jones to improve the offensive line, which also is a big need for the Pack.

Boocub's Pick: Johnathan Jenkins, DT, Georgia

27. Texans - Robert Woods, WR, USC

It's no secret that Andre Johnson only has a few years left and the Texans need a realible target to compliment and later replace him. Woods possesses the physical tools they will be looking for. Houston's defense is solid, so I don't see them going anywhere but WR here, whether that be Woods or another WR that has fallen.

Boocub's Pick: Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU

28. Broncos - Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

This deep into the draft it is starting to become a guessing game, so I'll throw Hankins out there for this pick. The Broncos do need help on the defensive line, so Hankins would fill a need. I'm not sure how the Broncos feel about backup QB Brock Osweiler, but they know Peyton has two or three more years left in him at most, so if they wook Mike Glennon or Ryan Nassib here it wouldn't surprise me.

Boocub's Pick: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

29. Patriots (traded to Dolphins) - Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

It is always a surprise when it comes the Patriots in the draft. They real guess is will they stay at #29 or trade down. The Patriots only have 5 picks in this draft, so I think it's likely they look to move down and get a couple day two picks in exchange. The Dolphins are in need of some offensive weapons, so Eifert would be a great pick for them. I'm going to predict the Dolphins move ahead of the Falcons to get Eifert and it likely will cost them the #42 and #84 pick.

Boocub's Pick: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

30. Falcons - Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

The Falcons would love to have gotten Eifert here to following Tony Gonzalez, but with the Dolphins moving up to snag him, they are going to address the defensive end position. Datone Jones is the best end available on the board, so I'm penciling him in here. Zach Ertz is also a possibility, but I don't see him quite this high.

Boocub's Pick: Alex Okafor, DE/OLB, Texas

31. 49ers - Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

I only have one CB gone at this point, so I'd expect a rush on them to start soon. San Francisco has the luxury of going with the best player available, which is probably Trufant or Johnthan Banks. There are other routes they could go, but a defensive back is likely.

Boocub's Pick: Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International

32. Ravens - Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame

If anything, this pick will make for riveting television. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a camera permanently installed near Te'o on draft day. Te'o's showing at the combine probably dropped him to a late first round pick at best, so the only other spot I see him going is to the Packers at #26. I'm hoping that doesn't happen, so I'm projecting the Ravens take Te'o to help fill the hole in the middle of their defense. It will be tough shoes for Te'o to fill, but would be a great opportunity for him.

Boocub's Picks: Matt Elam, S, Florida

I hope you enjoyed my mock draft. I'll be updating this throughout the remainder of the combine and as things change throughout the pro days, so be sure to check back.

Erd's Fantasy Fantasy Team

2012-09-07T12:33:00.001-05:00

Every year when preparing for my fantasy draft, I come up with a plan of who I am going to take in every round. Anyone that does fantasy knows that it is impossible to get everyone you want. However, I once again had this list, so I thought I'd share it.

Here' how it works:

1) I go by the ADP rankings on Mockdraftcentral.com
2) I select which player I'd ideally want to draft from every set of 10 (1-10, 11-20, 21-30, etc)
3) I adjust accordingly based on the need to fill all position and backup every position

It's pretty simple, so here's the players I took and where they were ranked:

1-10: (5) Aaron Rodgers
11-20: (12) Jimmy Graham
21-30: (21) Steven Jackson
31-40: (38) Brandon Marshall
41-50: (41) AJ Green
51-60: (54) Jordy Nelson
61-70: (65) BenJarvus Green-Ellis
71-80: (71) Donald Brown
81-90: (83) Dwayne Bowe
91-100: (95) Jay Cutler
101-110: (105) Eric Decker
111-120: (113) Cedric Benson
121-130: (130) Houston
131-140: (140) Titus Young
141-150: (14!) Robbie Gould

Here' the roster breakdown:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler
WR: Brandon Marshall, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, Dwayne Bowe, Eric Decker, Titus Young
RB: Steven Jackson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Donald Brown, Cedric Benson
TE: Jimmy Graham
K: Robbie Gould
DEF: Houston

Overall, I feel this team would be a lock for the playoffs in any league. Rodgers is nearly unstoppable and Jimmy Graham is going to end the year in his own tier when it comes to tight ends (I like Gronk, but his numbers will be well under Graham's). Brandon Marshall is back with the Cutler; together they were one of the most dangerous aerial attacks. I don't actually like the Jordy Nelson pick (I think he had his career year last year, but he was the best player available. Bowe should return to form this season, Decker will be Peyton's favorite target (which equals big fantasy production) and Titus Young is in a situation in which he could be a top-15 fantasy WR. I believe in the Law Firm more than most and SJax still has something left in the tank. Brown and Benson are both starting runningbacks and could easily find themselves in the starting lineup depending on matchups. If you have this team or something close to it, you should be happy.

Erd's Guide to Fantasy Football 2012

2012-08-20T15:44:00.000-05:00

Who should I draft with the 2nd pick? Should I target a QB in round 1? If I don't get a QB early, who should I target? What rookie will have the biggest impact?

These are all questions that are commonplace at this time of the year. As we approach the week 3 of the preseason, fantasy football drafts are in full swing. Every expert has posted their mock drafts, sleepers, busts, etc., but if you read enough of them, you realize there are very few things that are a consensus when it comes to fantasy football. Unfortunately, most of the time the "experts" get it wrong. This doesn't mean they don't know anything, it's just the nature of the game. People don't want to read "don't draft rookies, they aren't proven" or "when in doubt, take the best player available". That simply doesn't sell tickets. They are put in a position to name a player and that's what they do.

I did not want to do that, so I'm just going to give you my top 10 at each position. More importantly though, I'm going to give you the draft strategy I've used for years. Some details of it have changed as the fantasy landscape has, but the idea remains the same. But first, let's answer those questions:

Here's a little disclosure before we begin:
Like any advice, you always need to take your league's scoring system into consideration. My advice is geared towards a league that starts QB, WRx3, RBx2, TE, FLEX, K, DEF. Scoring is (Pass TD-6, 25 pass yards-1, Rush/Receiving TD-6, 10 yards rush/receiving-1, .5 points per reception).

Who should I draft with the 2nd pick?
This is simple for me, it's Aaron Rodgers. Now for the old school fantasy managers like myself, it aches me to throw out the idea of not going RB with my first pick, but the game has changed. RB's are no longer the fantasy beasts, top tier QB's are. I could go into all the statistics, but I don't have the time. Just trust me on this one. Just consider this stat-line for Rodgers: (250 yards/ 3 TD/ 1 INT). Now most people would consider that a mediocre game for the league's best QB, but compare that to this stat-line for Ray Rice: (120 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 30 yards, 1 TD). That would be a great stat-line for any RB on your fantasy team. Well the difference between Rodgers' average game and Rice's very good game is 3 points. In 15 games, Rodgers' averaged 32.5 points/week, Rice averaged just over 21 points/week in his 16 games. So there it is in a nutshell. Rodgers is not only the more consistent fantasy scorer, but also the safer pick, given the health of RB's in the league. Here is the segue into the next question.

Should I target a QB in round 1?
I already said I would take Rodgers with the 2nd pick, but I'd probably take him with the 1st pick. I will answer this question by building upon my last answer. Rodgers averaged 32.5 points/week, while the #10 fantasy QB averaged 18.1 points/week. Rice averaged 21.0 points/week, while the #10 RB average 12.7 points/week. It is just a matter of consistency. A top tier QB is a better bet than a top tier RB. I would take Rodgers, Brady or Brees in the 1st round without any hesitation. However, my next few QB's (Stafford, Cutler, Newton) don't have the track record of consistency, so if you don't get one of the top 3, you should go elsewhere in round 1.

If I don't get a QB early, who should I target?
Outside of Rodgers/Brady/Brees, every QB has question marks going into this season. You will probably see those 3, as well as Stafford and Newton gone in the first 2 rounds. According to most rankings, you would be looking at Vick, Eli, Peyton, Romo and Rivers next. These are solid QB's, but you are going to get better value with a WR/RB in rounds 3-6. You'll likely see those guys go, and you'll probably see some joker take RG3 or Luck too early also. By round 7, you probably will see 8-12 QB's get drafted, depending on the size of your league. At this point, you should pull the trigger on Cutler, Ryan, or Schaub (I have Cutler ranked as my #5 QB, but you'll see that in my rankings later). If you don't get one of the perennial top tier QB's, be patient, there is plenty of value to get later.

What rookie will have the biggest impact?
Last year we saw rookies make a big impact (AJ Green, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, etc.) so there's no reason to say that rookies can't help out your fantasy team. But I'll say this once, DRAFT ROOKIES AT YOUR OWN RISK! There is a lot of hype and expectations for Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, RG3, Andrew Luck, Justin Blackmon, etc., but they all have one thing in common, they haven't played a regular season game yet. When it comes to rookies, people overpay way too much. That being said, Trent Richardson will indeed have the biggest impact of any rookie. He will be running behind a very good offensive line and he will have a rookie QB, so you should expect a heavy work load. He's not worth the possible 1st round pick it will take to get him, but if you are dead set on taking a rookie or he falls to the 3rd round, then I say he's your man.

Now that we have all that out of the way, here is the strategy I approach every draft with:

1. Don't Overpay For One Big Year
Every year, you see guys who haven't done much get taken way too early. Let's take Eddie Royal for example. In the 2008 season, rookie WR Eddie Royal broke out with 91 catches, 980 yards and 4 TD's. The following season, people were taking him far ahead of consistent receivers like Donald Driver, who in 2008 had 74 catches, 1012 yards, 5 TD's in 2008, which was his 5th straight 1000 yard season. Well as they say, the rest is history. Driver went on to notch 70 catches, 1061 yards and 6 TD's in 2009. As for Royal, he has notched a total of 115 catches, 1127 yards, and 4 TD's over the last 3 seasons. Ironically, Royal is a decent sleeper to bounce-back in San Diego this year, but when you have the choice, take the consistent producer over the one year wonder.

2. Pay Attention To Details
Situations change from year to year in the NFL. Players get traded, coaches get fired, schemes get changed, so you have to pay attention to the details. A lot of people are following the Peyton Manning situation closely to see if he's healthy, but I'm not concerned, because I'm not drafting him. Peyton is one of the greatest QB's to play the game, but there are too many changes for it to work well. He no longer has Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, so there goes any familiarity he had with his targets. He is going from playing in ideal playing conditions indoors in Indianapolis to playing outside, up in the mountains of Denver. The one knock on Peyton was his postseason performance, which coincidentally takes place in January, up in the snow and cold. He could have a good year, but watch for the warning signs.

3. Sexy Picks Don't Win Championships
Everyone wants to make the sexy pick that gets the draft room buzzing "that's a great pick bro" or "I love that pick", but think of it this way, draft picks are like girlfriends. Yeah, you want the girlfriend that is so hot that your friends invite her to hang out at the fantasy draft just to look at her, but in reality, the girlfriend that cooks the wings, serves up the appetizers, and delivers the beer to the draft room is by far the better pick. So what does that mean this year? Ryan Mathews' #4 ranking in Yahoo! will get your friends excited at the draft, but #39 ranked Steven Jackson will continue to make you happy every week.

4. Take A Chance Late
I've been preaching consistency early in the draft, but if you look at my teams, you'll see I draft for upside after my first 6-7 picks. Once you start to fill your starting spots, start looking at your sleepers. Reaching for someone in the 8th round isn't going to hurt your team if you have a starting lineup full of consistent producers. It is all about risk vs. reward, so now is your time to make your splash.

5. Please Don't Take A Kicker Or Defense Early
I'm not going to talk about taking kickers much, because if you are not waiting until the last round to grab one, you probably aren't winning anyways. Excluding Akers (ranked #20 going into the year) who had a huge year last year, 28 points separated the #2 and #16 kickers, only 1.75 points/week. So please, don't draft a kicker until the last round, they aren't worth it. Now let's get to defense. It's a little trickier because defense strategy depends on the size of the league. If you are in a 10 team league or smaller, you should be using the free agent pool to play matchups every week. Most managers will have at most 2 defenses on their roster, meaning in a 10-team league, you will 14 defenses to choose from every week. Now if your league is 12 teams or bigger, you probably don't want to go this route. Your defense pool will probably be in the single digits, so getting a solid defense is much more necessary, but you still shouldn't take them early. Keep in mind that defenses change every year in the NFL. The New York Jets defense was the top ranked fantasy defense only 2 years ago, but now they are ranked #10. You simply can't predict how well a defense will be, so why take the risk early?

I hope I still have your attention, because here are my rankings:

Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Matthew Stafford
Jay Cutler
Cam Newton
Michael Vick
Eli Manning
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo

Runningback
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Chris Johnson
Darren McFadden
Matt Forte
Maurice Jones-Drew
Adrian Peterson
Ryan Mathews
Trent Richardson

Wide Receiver
Calvin Johnson
Brandon Marshall
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
AJ Green
Victor Cruz
Roddy White
Greg Jennings
Wes Welker
Hakeem Nicks

Tight End
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Vernon Davis
Antonio Gates
Jermichael Finley
Aaron Hernandez
Brandon Pettigrew
Fred Davis
Jason Witten
Owen Daniels

If you made it this far, thanks for reading. Feel free to share you thoughts and good luck on draft day!

-Erd

US Open Picks

2012-06-07T13:22:00.004-05:00

It's a week away now, and I'm really gearing up for the US Open. Whether you play fantasy golf or like to do some sports betting, you probably would like to know who is going to be in contention before it starts. Well I am here to tell you who I think will be in the picture on Sunday. I did my best impression of Moneyball and used some statistical analysis to calculate who has the skill set to do well next weekend. I could just list the best guys in the world and be done with it, but instead I'm giving you 4 golfers in the top 25, top 100 and outside the top 100 in the world rankings.. Do with this what you will.

Before I get into it, here are the factors I took into account to get my composite rankings:
Strokes Gained - Putting, Average Going For It Shot Distance, Average Distance After Going For It, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, 3-Putt Avoidance, Last 3 Tournament success, Last 3 US Open success, World Rank

Golfers ranked 1-25:

Luke Donald - It should be no surprise to see the #1 player in the world on this list. Donald comes into the US Open playing well, having finished 12th, 1st, 6th and 3rd in his past four tournaments. All he needs now is a major. Donald is near the top in Strokes Gained - Putting, a stat which I used in my rankings. His game is solid all-around right now and his style of play should fair well next weekend. He'll make a lot of pars, but in the US Open that will keep him safely on the first page of the leaderboard. Statistically, Donald is my pick to win it.

Tiger Woods - It's amazing how badly Tiger seems to be playing, yet he is hitting the ball better than ever and has 2 wins on the season. He is ranked 1st in both total driving and ball striking for the first time since 2000, a year in which he happened to win 3 majors. He also is ranked 1st in Average Going For It Shot Distance and Average Distance After Going For It, meaning he is leaving himself in great position off the tee and he is hitting it close from there. The only thing that is holding Tiger back is putting. If Tiger can improve his mental approach on the greens and start dropping some putts, he will win multiple majors this year.

Sergio Garcia - Like Donald, Garcia is also chasing that first major win. He is getting close though, with top 10 finishes in 2 of his last 3 US Opens and top 12 finishes in each of his last 4 majors. At one point it seemed it was only a matter of time before Sergio notched his first major, but now the window is closing for Sergio. He's only 32, but he's not exactly in his prime either. A top 10 finish for Sergio is very likely, but he will need to play his best golf to be in contention late.

Zach Johnson - Johnson is one of the hottest golfers on the Tour right now, with a win and two runner-up finishes in his last four tournaments. He also has a major under his belt, unlike the majority of guys on this list. Much like Donald, Johnson is not going to be posting low scores, but he will be relevant on Sunday. In the end I don't see Johnson winning it, but he should have a solid showing.

Golfers ranked 26-100:
Jim Furyk - Every time it seems like Furyk is going to fade away, he comes back playing well. Although he hasn't fared well in majors in the past couple years, Furyk comes into the US Open playing solid golf. He won the US Open in 2003 and the FedEx cup in 2010, so Furyk clearly has what it takes to win. According to my rankings, a top 3 finish for Furyk is likely.

Bo Van Pelt - Van Pelt is a name you see on the leaderboards often, just rarely on the top. He only has one PGA Tour victory in his career, but his consistency has him at #30 in the world golf rankings. Van Pelt already has 5 top 10 finishes this year and will take that success into the US Open. A top 10 finish for Van Pelt is possible, and a top 20 is a certainty.

Nicolas Colsaerts - Nicolas has been playing great golf on the European Tour all year long, and is currently 6th in the Race To Dubai. Although Europeans don't usually fare well at the US Open, Colsaerts is playing great golf, which can translate to any course.

Ian Poulter - When you dress and act like Poulter does, you need to be able to back it up. Unfortunately, it isn't just him and Tiger, as he once predicted. That being said, Poulter does have a solid game and finished 7th at the Masters this year. Perhaps his prophecy comes true and it's just him and Tiger on Sunday afternoon, but likely he'll be in the clubhouse well before Tiger's off the course.

Golfers ranked 100+:
Jonas Blixt - You probably haven't hear of this guy, but this Swede played golf at Florida State and joined the PGA Tour this season. After a rough start, Blixt has finished 13th or better in four of his last 5 tournaments. You may see Blixt post a low round or two and find himself in the top 15 at the end of the tournament.

Michael Thompson - He hasn't done anything spectacular this year, perhaps that's why he is outside the top 100, but statistically Thompson isn't far away. He ranks near the top in Strokes Gained - Putting and both Going For It statistics. If ha can improve on his driving accuracy and keep the ball in the fairway, He could sneak into the top 20.

Davis Love III - It may be unfair to put DL3 in this list, but the Ryder Cup captain has played well at the US Open lately. DL3 finished T6 and T11 in 2010 and 2011 respectively. He had a stretch from 1995-2005 where he finished in the top 10 in 19 of 44 majors. It's unlikely that the 48-year-old will finish top 10 this year, but a top 20 is very possible.

Blake Adams - This guy is a total workaholic (if you get that reference). Frankly, there is a limited amount of players to choose from outside the top 100, and Adams is just a longshot. He did manage to finish in the top 20 in both the Memorial and The Players last month. A top 20 finish in a major would be a success for the first timer.

Stay tuned for my complete rankings for the entire field.

Playoffs, and Injuries, and Triple Crowns! Oh My!

2012-05-31T11:03:00.001-05:00

It's that time of the year again, the time when football news isn't actually on the forefront. Well, except for the two super divas TO and 85 who made headlines in their ongoing attempts to become relevant again. The Stanley Cup Finals are underway, the NBA Conference Finals are underway, and it's almost Memorial Day, which marks the first significant point in the season for baseball. There is also some horse racing action going on, so we better get going.

NHL vs. NBA
Whether you are primarily watching the NHL or NBA at this time of the year probably depends on where you live and the color of your skin. This dichotomy amongst sports fan is unfortunate, as both sports have a lot to offer the casual fan. I grew up favoring the NBA, but now I favor the NHL. I can attribute this to one factor and that is parody. If you want to watch the favorite team win, watch the NBA, but if you want an intriguing series, you have to favor the NHL. Just look at the numbers.

The favorites in the NBA playoffs were Miami out of the East and San Antonio/OK City (depending which bandwagon you are on) out of the West. Clearly we are going to see these teams in the finals. If you look at the playoffs in a whole, 8* out of the 10 series were won by the higher seed (the asterisk is for the Philly/Chicago series, which wasn't an upset after Rose went out). Essentially, the only upset, if you can call it that, was the 5th seeded Clippers over the 4th seeded Grizzlies.

The NHL, in contrast, is what the casual fan should be watching. We have the 8th seeded Kings against the 6th seeded Devils in the finals. Unlike the NBA, 8 out of the 14 series were won by the lower seed. Folks in New York and Vancouver probably aren't too happy, but who else doesn't like to see upsets? Thanks to NBC there is actually good NHL playoff coverage this year, but unfortunately there is still is the ESPN bias towards the NBA. The LA Clippers have gotten more airplay than the LA Kings. If it weren't for Barry Melrose, I wouldn't see any NHL news on channel 1602.

So to channel my inter-Forrest Gump, "That's all I have to say about that." I know everyone always loves my predictions, so I'll take the Kings in 5 games to win the Cup. In the NBA, I'll take the Heat to sweep the Celtics and the Spurs to win it in 6. I'll take the Heat over the Spurs in 7 in the Finals.

MLB Injuries
The MLB is approaching what enthusiasts consider the first important date in the baseball season. We are nearly 2 months in and hot bats are cooling off and slow starters are heating up. Pujols' epic homer drought is now in the rear-view mirror as he now sits at 8 homers on the year. The horrible Red Sox are just 2.5 games out of the division lead, which is still held by the Orioles, although they have lost 5 straight. I'm not concerned about standings or statistics at this point of the year (except the possibility of a Triple Crown for Hamilton, which I will touch on later), I'm more concerned about the injuries that are piling up. My Brewers have had more injuries than I can possibly remember, but fortunately our top 3 (Braun, Grienke, Gallardo) are healthy and going strong. Unfortunately for other teams, injuries may shape up the league this year.

Let's look at some of the big names that are on the shelf and how it will affect the league:

Mariano Rivera (out for season): This is going to hurt the Yankees down the stretch. They still have the talent to win games, but I'm predicting they miss the playoffs this year.

Matt Kemp (TBD): Kemp just returned from the DL, but re-injured his hamstring and initial reports are that it might be worse this time. The Dodgers were looking like they were going to run away with the division, but the loss of Kemp for another month or two could open the door for the Giants, who will be getting Pablo Sandoval back soon.

Evan Longoria (out til late June/early July): The loss of Longoria is immeasurable for the Rays. Like Kemp, Longoria has a hamstring injury, which are easily re-aggravated. I expect Longoria to miss the month of June. If the Rays can hang on without him, they'll be fine, but if they drop a few games behind the Yankees and Red Sox, they may be on the outside come playoff time.

Roy Halladay (out til mid-July): Let's start by saying mid-July is the optimistic timetable for Halladay. Just when Phillies fans were starting to gear up for Utley and Howard to return, they lose one of the best pitchers in the game. They are in the most competitive division in the NL, so this could possibly end the Phillies' season if Halladay has any setback.

Jered Weaver (out til late June/early July): The Angels received good news about Weaver's injury, but it still is likely he will miss at least 3-4 starts. Things were looking up for the Angels as Pujols was heating up and Haren was getting dialed in, but the Angels should be able to weather this injury. They likely will not make a run at Texas for the division, but a wild card spot should be attainable for the Angels.

Triple Crowns!
I'll Have Another or Josh Hamilton? Will either be able to accomplish the rare feat? We'll know much sooner if I'll Have Another can get it done at Belmont, but that was almost in jeopardy today. If you just read that article, you read how close horse racing came to having the worst thing possible happen. Hamilton's fate is just as much on the edge. A month ago Matt Kemp was in these talks, but a re-aggravated hamstring injury has put an end to that story. Hamilton has an ever greater history of injuries. First and foremost, Hamilton needs to stay healthy. Second, he will likely need to hold off a couple veteran White Sox in Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn. Third, he will need a little luck. If we see one triple crown this year, that would be incredible, but if we saw two, it would be historic. Once again, it's a great time to be a sports fan!!

Go Pack Go! Analyzing a "Boring" draft

2012-04-30T23:11:00.002-05:00

What about the Packers?

The 2012 NFL draft has come and gone, and teams have made the next steps towards their futures. Some grasp at straws as they spiral downward, some toss their life savings behind unproven potential, and some just make damn smart decisions. The latter are usually the least talked about drafts, the "boring" picks. Nothing exciting happening here, just good football decisions. Call me a homer, but I see this in the Green Bay Packers 2012 draft. Let's keep in mind that this team was 1 hung over Sunday from running the table in 2012. They are not losing a whole lot on the offensive side of the ball. If anything, I think they are going to be better than last year. They had no real reason to address any issues in this draft, and yet they come away with 2 solid players in the late afternoon rounds on Saturday. A quarterback who will build himself and develop himself behind the league's best. No pressure, no push, just learn. They were also able to bring in a promising tackle with the same stipulations. They won't need to get immediate contribution, but in 2 year we could have a starting tackle. Those are really the sexy picks of the Packers. From there, it just gets boring... and good.

The best offensive team in NFL history could have walked to the Super Bowl with any form of an NFL -ish defense. Unfortunately, they did not have one. The Packers saw the true value of Cullen Jenkins and Nick Collins this past season. Cullen made EVERY linebacker better by keeping guys off them, and was able to penetrate the backfield occasionally. He needed to be blocked. Last year, BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, AJ Hawk... they all felt the pain of no Cullen plugging the front. With Nick Collins in the lineup, Sam Shields looked like a pro-bowl candidate. Morgan Burnett simply could not be what Collins was, and his absence will be the most difficult to address. But remember, this defense doesn't need to be the NFL's best... it just can't be the NFL's worst. The Packers addressed some concerns immediately in Free Agency. No, they didn't pay top dollar to the sexy free agents... they paid bargain prices for guys to come in and work for a job. Working for your job will bring the best out of anyone. At the very least, Anthony Hargrove and Daniel Muir will force those around them to play to their potential.

Fast forward to today, the week following the NFL draft. Ted Thompson immediately addressed the most glaring concern by picking Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy. Perry can be a force on the edge, and will make an immediate impact. Having a threat opposite Clay Matthews instantly makes this defense better than last season. Throw in Worthy, who has the potential to work inside, take up space, and still get in the backfield (see Jenkins, Cullen). Toss in Mike Daniels, and we have an all out battle just to make this roster. The presence of the newfound pass rush instantly improves the Packers' entire defense. Insert Casey Hayward. A solid corner with a nice ceiling, not to mention this kid is the definition of a ball hawk. Oh yeah, he gets to learn from Charles Woodson.... If Hayward is able to push for a starting role, he may actually move Chuck to the back of the defense, solving the problem of replacing Collins. Jerron McMillian can be a special teams contributor immediately, and can help with depth in the secondary. Don't expect to hear his name a lot, but expect him to grow. The biggest intrigue comes in Terrell Manning. There was once a time when this kid was a top prospect, and he slid a ways down to land in Green Bay. He will be a special team specialist his first year, but he has the potential to be a big contributor in Green Bay. I think we look back at this draft in 4 years, and Manning is listed as a big pick by the Packers. (I mean come on, he's got the #1 thing every star needs in GB... dreads!)

Overall, a very boring draft for the Packers... and a boring draft typically means a good draft. Look for the Packers to be Super Bowl favorites yet again this season.

NFL Draft - Round 1 Draft Grades

2012-04-27T00:43:00.001-05:00

Although the first round flew by, there was plenty of action. Some picks had me shaking my head and some had me shaking my fist. Here's my thoughts, pick by pick, as well as my winners, losers, steals and busts of the first round.

1. Indianapolis Colts - QB Andrew Luck, Stanford

This was a no-brainer. Luck is the best QB prospect since Elway and he will live up to the hype.

Grade: A+

2. Washington Redskins - QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor

I'm not as big on RG3 as others, but if he throws first, runs second, he will be in the league for quite some time. The cost of 2 first round picks may be a little steep though.

Grade: A-

3. Cleveland Browns - RB Trent Richardson, Alabama

The Browns gave up 3 picks to move up 1 spot to secure Richardson. I'm not sure they wouldn't have been better off taking Blackmon and going for a RB in Round 2, but they need playmakers. They aren't going to find playmakers with those 4th-7th round picks and Richardson is a beast.

Grade: A-

4. Minnesota Vikings - OT Matt Kalil, USC

The Vikings maneuvered the draft perfectly. They got 3 additional picks and still got the guy they were going to take anyway. Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Ndamakong Suh, etc. . . they needed to protect Ponder from the pass rushing beasts in the NFC North.

Grade: A

5. Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State

Blackmon is the type of guy that doesn't need single coverage to make plays. He's a T.O. caliber receiver and will immediately make that offense better, assuming their QB can get the ball to him.

Grade: A

6. Dallas Cowboys - CB Morris Claiborne, LSU

The Cowboys gave up a 2nd round pick to get Claiborne. I absolutely love Claiborne, but I love 2nd round picks more. I think they overpaid to move up, so that knocks their grade down.

Grade: B+

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - S Mark Barron, Alabama

I know this guy's draft value kept rising, but I think that it was more of a product of scarcity at the safety position than talent-related. They did manage to get a 4th round pick, but they should've stayed at #5 and taken Claiborne.

Grade: C

8. Miami Dolphins - QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

I know they have ties to this guy and really like him, but they made a mistake. It seems to happen far too often, but teams get so desperate to find that franchise QB that they overlook glaring flaws. Brandon Weeden would've gotten a better grade here,

Grade: D-

9. Carolina Panthers - ILB Luke Kuechly, Boston College

Kuechly may be one of the more underrated players in the draft. That likely is because he's not a flashy guy who plays at a position that rarely has "sexy" picks. Fletcher Cox would've been a great choice here as well, but the Panthers got a guy that is just as safe a pick.

Grade: A

10. Buffalo Bills - CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina

Gilmore is a solid pick for the Bills. The Bills had a solid defense and Gilmore will make them even better. If they target offensive line and get another receiver tomorrow, they will be a team to watch in 2012.

Grade: B+

11. Kansas City Chiefs - DT Dontari Poe, Memphis

When it comes to defensive line, I don't take any stock in combine results. The best attribute for a defensive lineman is a high motor, which unfortunately is not measured at the combine. Poe just didn't show up in game film, which for a guy with his numbers means he doesn't have the motor needed at that position. Fletcher Cox was hands down the better choice here.

Grade: C-

12. Philadelphia Eagles - DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State

There isn't much to say about this pick, which is a good thing. The Eagles moved up to get a guy that really shouldn't have been there at #12. Cox was my top defensive lineman in the draft.

Grade: A

13. Arizona Cardinal - WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

I will start by saying that I don't believe Floyd should've gone this high. I think he will struggle against top corners in the NFL, but with that being said, he is going to succeed early in his career because he won't be facing any team's best corner with Larry Fitzgerald on the other side. I don't like the player, but the pick actually works for them.

Grade: B

14. St. Louis Rams - DT Michael Brockers, LSU

I mentioned earlier how much I love 2nd round picks. The fact that the Rams ultimately moved from #2 to #14 and got two 2nd round picks and first round picks in 2013 and 2014 is astonishing. They could have taken anyone at this spot and have gotten a good a grade, but on top of those picks they got a solid defensive lineman with a high ceiling.

Grade: A+

15. Seattle Seahawks - OLB Bruce Irvin, West Virginia

I liked Irvin's upside, but in the late 2nd or 3rd round, not the middle of the 1st. Many described Irvin as the best pass rush specialist in the draft, which I can't argue, but he also has some baggage. Seattle simply reached way too far for a guy they probably could have gotten in the 2nd round. When so many teams were willing to trade up, they just did a poor job of draft management.

Grade: F

16. New York Jets - DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina

I already made it known that I have an issue with any defensive lineman that has his motor questioned. The knock on Coples is exactly that. People question his motor and accuse him of taking plays off. I really can't overlook that, even for the most athletically talented of players.

Grade: C-

17. Cincinnati Bengals - CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama

I thought the Bengals would go offensive lineman here and target Janoris Jenkins with their second pick in round 1. I'd like to be the first to congratulate the Bengals for finally avoiding the guy with character issue. I think Kirkpatrick has the ability to become a solid corner in the NFL.

Grade: B

18. San Diego Chargers - DE Melvin Ingram, South Carolina

San Diego may have gotten one of the best value picks in the 1st round. Ingram will immediately improve the Chargers' defensive front. That's all I have to say about that.

Grade: A

19. Chicago Bears - OLB Shea McClellin, Boise State

I was surprised to see McClellin go this high, especially ahead of Chandler Jones. I thought McClellin would be a perfect fit for the Packers or Patriots later in the 1st round, but clearly the Bears liked him a lot. McClellin is a good pick, but the Bears passed on some better players at this spot.

Grade: C+

20. Tennessee Titans - WR Kendall Wright, Baylor

I'm not sure if Wright has thanked RG3 for getting him drafted in the 1st round, but he should. Wright is a talent, but not a 1st round talent. It is common to see a receivers' draft stock rise with his QB. If the Titans really wanted to go with a WR, they should've gone with Stephen Hill, who I had just behind Blackmon in my receiver rankings. Had Hill been in that Baylor offense last year, he would've been the top receiver in this draft.

Grade: D+

21. New England Patriots - DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse

I was disappointed when the Patriots moved up to take Jones, because I wanted my Packers to get him. Jones has gone up draft boards in the past month, but unlike many other players, he deserved to be headed in that direction. Belichick & Co. continue to make the right moves on draft day.

Grade: A

22. Cleveland Browns - QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State

I had this in my mock draft and I was happy to see it happen. Weeden should not only compete with McCoy for the starting job, but he should win it. Weeden is going to be a better quarterback in the NFL than Tannehill, so clearly the Browns did well getting him at #22. If they can get him a dynamic receiver like Stephen Hill in the 2nd round, watch out for the Browns' offense.

Grade: A-

23. Detroit Lions - OT Riley Reiff, Iowa

Many people had Reiff going as high as #10 in their mocks, including yours truly. The game has gone from a running game to a passing game, but it still is won in the trenches. The Lions got a top-15 player and an offensive lineman that can step in immediately. You can never have enough offensive lineman, so when in doubt, take one. Especially when your teams' success is directly linked to keeping your quarterback healthy for the whole season.

Grade: A

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - OG David DeCastro, Stanford

Basically it's the same thing I said for the last pick. DeCastro is a guy that you can plug in immediately. He will help improve the Steelers' run game drastically.

Grade: A

25: New England Patriots - ILB Dont'a Hightower, Alabama

Once again the Patriots moved up to grab a guy that probably shouldn't have still been on the board. Hightower is going to be a presence in the middle of the Patriots defense and is well worth the 4th round pick he cost.

Grade: A

26. Houston Texans - DE Whitney Mercilus, Illinois

I've seen Mercilus go in the top-10 in some mock drafts and in the 2nd round in others, but this spot seems about right. Mercilus doesn't amaze me, but I also don't see any glaring flaws. I would've taken Andre Branch or Courtney Upshaw ahead of Mercilus, but he's still a solid pick.

Grade: B

27. Cincinnati Bengals - OG Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin

Do you expect me to say anything bad about a fellow Badger? Good, because I won't. Zeitler is another solid lineman from a program that produces NFL-ready lineman on a yearly basis. Wisconsin is one of the best rushing teams in college football year in and year out, yet they haven't had a running back drafted in 5 years. This is testament to the talent of guys like Zeitler and Peter Konz, whose name you should hear called in the 2nd round.

Grade: B+

28. Green Bay Packers - DE Nick Perry, USC

The Packers got the guy I absolutely wanted them to get. I started to think Chandler Jones was a possibility, but in the end they got another solid pass-rusher from USC. The presence of Perry is going to likely double or even triple Clay Matthews' sack total in 2012. The added pressure on the quarterback will also take pressure of the secondary. I could keep going, but you get the picture.

Grade: A

29. Minnesota Vikings - S Harrison Smith, Notre Dame

This guy started to grow on me after some prodding. As I mentioned earlier when discussing the Mark Barron pick, this draft is very thin at safety. The Vikings clearly knew this and used a 4th round pick to get back into the 1st round to pick up Smith. I still believe Smith would've been a late 2nd round pick in another year, but he definitely is going to bring some intelligence to the Vikings.

Grade: B

30. San Francisco 49ers - WR A.J. Jenkins, Illinois

I loved the receiver named AJ in last year's draft and he really panned out. Unfortunately, I have similar feelings for another receiver in this draft, but his name is Stephen, not AJ. I actually had Alshon Jeffery, Rueben Randle and Brian Quick all ahead of Jenkins, so clearly this was not the guy the 49ers should've taken. I pride myself in my ability to evaluate receivers early in the draft, so I have no hesitations in grading this pick poorly.

Grade: D-

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - RB Doug Martin, Boise State

I thought Martin would go the Giants at #32 and it appears they were going to go that route, so the Bucs were wise to swap 4th rounders with the Broncos to get ahead of the Giants to get Martin. Martin is a back that can do it all, opposite of what they have right now in LaGarrette Blount. The cost was right and the pick was right.

Grade: B+

32. New York Giants - RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech

I believe the Giants were planning on having their choice of Martin and Wilson at this spot. Had that been the case, they would've been wise to move back 5-10 picks. Nonetheless, they needed another running back to fill the shoes of Brandon Jacobs. I still think the Giants could've picked up another pick and still have gotten Wilson in the 2nd round, but they still did well.

Grade: B

Winners

Patriots - The Patriots know they are a few playmakers on the defensive side of the ball from winning a superbowl. They managed to get two such playmakers in the 1st round for only the cost of a 3rd round and 4th round pick. They only have two 2nd round picks left in this year's draft, but if they get a defensive back and an offensive lineman, they will have done everything they needed.

Rams - I already touched on the reason I believe the Rams were winners in the 1st round. The moved down 12 spots, and in return, received two 2nd round picks in this year's draft (giving them 3 total), a 1st round pick in the 2013 draft, and a 1st round pick in the 2014 draft. Still, they managed to get Michael Brockers. They are in very good position to be on this list again tomorrow, with those three 2nd round picks.

Losers

Seahawks - Bruce Irvin may turn out to be a solid player, but it still can't be overlooked that they could've moved back to get him or even have gotten him in the 2nd round. They passed on the chance to take Fletcher Cox, which they will regret. Pete Carroll is a great recruiter, but his draft strategy should be questioned.

Dolphins - I'm not gonna say much here, you can read my thoughts in the bust below.

Round 1 Bust

Ryan Tannehill - It's plain and simple, Tannehill isn't the next Dan Marino. Hell, he isn't even the next Chad Henne (on a good day). There is something that Kiper, McShay, Mike Sherman, and the numerous random blog writers have in common, they all evaluate upside too heavily. Tannehill is raved about for his athleticism and his size, but they have nothing to do with being a quarterback in the NFL. The quarterback position has changed drastically. You no longer can get by with a game manager, you need an elite quarterback. In the past, teams drafted quarterbacks to cultivate them into solid game managers 3 years down the road. Those guys aren't the guys that can win you a superbowl. I could go on forever here, but I'll just wait 5 years to say I told you so.

Round 1 Steal

David DeCastro/Melvin Ingram - I'm tired and want to go to bed, so this is going to be short. These 2 guys are going to contribute immediately to their teams, and unlike almost every other team in the 1st round, they didn't have to give up anything to get them. These players fell and San Diego and Pittsburgh were rewarded for the patience. I'll sum it up by reminding everyone how quickly Pittsburgh submitted their pick. That should tell you how surprised they were to see DeCastro still there at #24.

NCAA Tournament - Midwest Region Preview

2012-03-14T14:33:00.001-05:00

Well last night we saw that anything can happen in the tournament. At halftime, people were penciling Iona in to upset Marquette, now they have the eraser out once again. Good thing the bracket doesn't count the play-in games, I'd be 0-2. I'll take Vermont and Cal tonight, so hopefully I can split the games. This is my final preview, so I hope you've enjoyed them. Be sure to check out the other regions: South, East, and West. No tips this time, let's get right to the games.

1 North Carolina vs 16 Lamar/Vermont
North Carolina wins 10 of 10

Why North Carolina Will Win. . .
North Carolina came into the season with expectations of winning a national title. They have done nothing so far to make you expect anything less. In their regular season finale against rival Duke, the Tar Heels showed why they were the preseason #1 ranked team. North Carolina is the top rebounding team in the country and the top scoring team in the field of 64. The biggest concern is John Henson's health entering the tournament. If he's good to go, Barnes, Zeller and crew will be favorites to get to the Final Four.

8 Creighton vs 9 Alabama
Creighton wins 5 of 10

Why Creighton Will Win. . .
Creighton is another one of those teams many people think are underseeded. The Bluejays were 28-5 on the season, but didn't play anyone ranked. There is one reason they can win a game in the NCAA tournament, Doug McDermott. McDermott is the top scorer in the tournament at over 23 points per game and is one of the best three-point shooters at 49%. He also adds 8 boards per game and shoots a staggering 61% from the floor. McDermott can carry this team to a victory like many scorers have in the past, but an off night or foul trouble could mean an early exit for the Blue Jays.

Why Alabama Will Win. . .
There really isn't anything spectacular about the Crimson Tide offense, but they are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They don't shoot well, but they also prevent their opponent's from hitting a lot of shots. This team failed to meet the expectations it had early in the season, but a win or two in the tournament could go a long way. This team has the athletes, they just never got everything together this year.

5 Temple vs 12 California/USF
California wins 5 of 10

Why Temple Will Win. . .
The A-10 was solid this year, and Temple was the regular season champion. The Owls come into the tournament having won 13 of their last 15 and have wins against Duke, Saint Louis and Xavier. Offensively, Temple is efficient. Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt both average over 17 points per game. Temple is littered with upperclassmen and that experience is valuable come tourney time. This team has Sweet 16 potential.

Why California Will Win. . .
I have California winning the play-in game for one reason, they get assists and high percentage shots. Had California won the Pac-12 tournament, they would've have been the only team to make the tournament. Instead, Colorado got the automatic bid and California is in as an at-large. Balanced scoring and a high shooting percentage can get this team through to the Sweet 16.

4 Michigan vs 13 Ohio
Michigan wins 8 of 10

Why Michigan Will Win. . .
Michigan had a solid season in the Big Ten. They got hot in games where they looked unbeatable, but then they went cold and look very beatable. The Wolverines rely on their outside shooting for offensive spurts. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. are solid scoring threats, but the team's inability to get to the line could hurt them. This team is talented enough to overcome some scoring droughts, but a Sweet 16 may be the best case scenario for a streaky team.

Why Ohio Will Win. . .
Ohio is over-matched against Michigan. The Bobcats got into the tournament by winning the Mid-American tournament. D.J. Cooper is a solid scorer and they have balanced scoring all around, but they aren't particularly efficient on offense. If this team were to beat Michigan, it would truly be an upset.

6 San Diego State vs 11 NC State
NC State wins 6 of 10

Why San Diego State Will Win. . .
It's difficult to expect much from the Aztecs in a rebuilding year of sorts from their Sweet 16 team from last year. This team lacks an interior defensive presence and has more turnovers than assists. They do have a couple scorers in Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley who take nearly 44% of the team's shots. Although this team is the higher seed, they may be the underdog in the round of 64.

Why NC State Will Win. . .
NC State got into the tournament based primarily on the strength of their schedule. They play in ACC with perennial tournament teams. Despite having twelve losses on the season, eight of those came against ranked teams. After a four game losing streak, NC State has played well in their last five, nearly knocking off North Carolina in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack is solid statistically, having five players averaging in double-digits. The balanced scoring and team play could propel this team into the round of 32.

3 Georgetown vs 14 Belmont
Georgetown wins 9 of 10

Why Georgetown Will Win. . .
Georgetown is on upset alert and for good reason. The Hoyas have been knocked out in the round of 64 in the past two years. This is your typical Georgetown team, anchored by a big man that can do it all. If you didn't see him in the Big East tournament, senior Henry Sims is playing his best basketball. Sims can rebound, score, and pass the ball as well as any big man in the country. This is another talented Georgetown team that has Sweet 16 potential, but needs to focus on their first round matchup.

Why Belmont Will Win. . .
Belmont comes in having won 14 straight games, so momentum is on their side. They don't have any significant wins on the schedule, but they did lose to Duke by only one point in the first game of the season. This team is not as talented as Georgetown, but they can score and distribute the ball well. If the Bruins can pull off the upset against Georgetown, they could be headed to the Sweet 16.

7 Saint Mary's vs 10 Purdue
Purdue wins 5 of 10

Why Saint Mary's Will Win. . .
The Gaels finally overcame Gonzaga to take the West Coast Conference title. Now they have their eyes set on a Sweet 16. The team's top scorer, Matthew Dellavedova, is able to create his own shot and get to the rim, but is also an excellent passer. Along with double-double machine Rob Jones, this team is talented enough to make a run, but they will need solid defensive play to advance.

Why Purdue Will Win. . .
This could be the last time we see Robbie Hummel in a Purdue uniform. Hummel's career has been unfortunately riddled with injuries that kept him off legitimate Final Four teams. This year Hummel is looking to finally lead his team in the tournament. The Boilermakers win games through offensive and defensive efficiency. Their ability to play defense and take care of the ball can take this team into a Sweet 16.

2 Kansas vs 15 Detroit
Kansas wins 10 of 10

Why Kansas Will Win. . .
When you look at Kansas, you see a team full of athletes. Thomas Robinson is a man among boys, and there aren't many teams that can contain him. However, to make a Final Four run, Tyshawn Taylor will have to be on the top of his game. Withey gives the Jayhawks another interior presence and is a premier shot blocker. This team can go as far as they want as long as they play well together.

My Midwest Region Bracket

Sweet 16: North Carolina, California, Georgetown, Kansas
Elite 8: North Carolina, Kansas
Upsets: Cal over Temple and Michigan, NC State over SDSU, Purdue over St. Mary's, Kansas over UNC
50-50 Picks: Creighton over Alabama, California over Temple, Purdue over St. Mary's

Again I have the #1 and #2 seed in the Elite 8, but I have Kansas advancing to the Final Four. I have California winning a couple games, but that may change depending on how they look tonight. In my 50-50 games, I am taking Creighton because of the McDermott and Purdue because of their efficiency. Again, my California pick could change.

NCAA Tournament - West Region Preview

2012-03-13T16:07:00.002-05:00

Two down, two to go. I've already previewed the South and East regions, and now we move down to the West. As always, here's a couple tips for filling out your bracket:

This is college, coaches make a difference. When it comes to picking teams in the tournament, don't overlook how good their coach is. Coaches like Tom Izzo are at their best come March.
Make a pick and stick with it. Too often people will waffle on a pick and then switch it because they saw a statistic or article about some team. Usually you'll end up regretting it.

The tournament is nearly underway, with First Four games starting tonight. In the small chance you care, I'll pick Mississippi Valley State and Iona to win tonight and get into the field of 64. Let's get going to the teams that have byes tonight.

1 Michigan State vs 16 LIU Brooklyn

Michigan State wins 10 of 10

Why Michigan State Will Win. . .

Tom Izzo knows how to get it done. Michigan State has one of the best coaches come March and a Final Four has become expected every year, regardless of seed for the Spartans. This year is no different, considering the Spartans weren't ranked in the preseason polls. Draymond Green does it all, averaging 16 points, 10 rebounds and over 3 assists per game. Green can play inside and outside, which makes it difficult for teams to match up with him. Along with Green, the Spartans have several players who can score on any given night and have players who can come in and hit the three when needed. This team is well coached and poised to make a Final Four run.

8 Memphis vs 9 Saint Loius

Memphis wins 5 of 10

Why Memphis Will Win. . .

Memphis enters the tournament having won 11 of their last 12 games. Leading the scoring is sophomore Will Barton, but they have plenty of legitimate scorers. As a team, they shoot over 49% from the floor, which puts them near the top of the country. They also distribute the ball well, so the Tigers will definitely be a tough out of the tournament. They have an interesting matchup with Saint Louis in the opening round, where many believe both teams were vastly underseeded.

Why Saint Louis Will Win. . .

If you are looking for a coach that has been there and done that, look no further than the Billikens' Rick Majerus. In the mid-to-late '90s, Majerus had Utah among the best programs in college basketball. He did everything be win it all. Majerus now has the Billikens in the NCAA tournament ready to make an impact. I personally find their mascot to be one of the coolest looking in the tournament, but their logo sort of makes him look like the Grinch. Can the Billikens do their best Grinch impression and steal some tournament wins? They don't have the athletes that Memphis or Michigan State have, but Majerus will have this team ready against any team.

5 New Mexico vs 12 Long Beach State

New Mexico wins 7 of 10

Why New Mexico Will Win. . .

If you like San Diego State or UNLV, you should like New Mexico, since they took 2 out of 3 from both those teams this year. The Mountain West champions have senior Drew Gordon averaging a double-double. The Lobos also get 12 and 11 points per game from Kendall Williams and Tony Snell respectively. This team is deep and are near the top of the country in assists per game, but what will win them games in the tournament is their defense. New Mexico is a dangerous #6 seed who has a good chance of making it into the Sweet 16.

Why Long Beach State Will Win. . .

Not many teams can score with the 49ers. They have five players averaging over 9 points per game, with Casper Ware leading them with over 17 per game. Long Beach State played a very tough non-conference schedule. Kansas, North Carolina, Kansas State, Louisville, Xavier, and Creighton all found themselves on the 49ers schedule. While the only win came over Xavier, Long Beach State played well against some of the best teams in the country. That experience and their ability to score could be enough for them to make a cinderella run into the Sweet 16 or possibly beyond.

4 Louisville vs 13 Davidson

Louisville wins 8 of 10

Why Louisville Will Win. . .

The Cardinals are playing some of their best basketball entering the tournament. A lot of that has to do with the play of Peyton Siva. If you haven't seen him play, he is lightning quick and can finish at the basket. Louisville is led in scoring by senior Kyle Kuric, but has six players averaging at least 9 points per game. This is also a very good rebounding team. The trend of good coaches continues with Rick Pitino, who has had success everywhere he's been. Expect this team to do no different as it advances to the Sweet 16.

Why Davidson Will Win. . .

Well they don't have Stephen Curry, but the Wildcats can still score at will. They have five players averaging double digits and are also one of the best rebounding teams in the country. It may just be a year too early for Davidson though. They don't have a senior logging significant minutes, so this year will be about getting experience. However, that does not mean that this team does not have what it takes to win a game in the tournament. They definitely have the talent to get to a Sweet 16, but they are lacking the experience. I'm saying it now though, watch out for them next year.

6 Murray State vs 11 Colorado State

Murray State wins 9 of 10

Why Murray State Will Win. . .

It's hard to believe a team that went 30-1 is a #6 seed in the tournament. It goes to say that this team is much better than their seeding. If you haven't seen him play, Isaiah Canaan is one of the best scorers in the country. He averages over 19 points per game and gets Dick Vitale more excited than a bottle a Viagra. Canaan alone can carry this team through the tournament, but the Racers also have other players who can score. They shoot over 40% from beyond the arc as a team, so they could surprise anyone who looks at them like any other #6 seed.

Why Colorado State Will Win. . .

It's actually very surprising to see Colorado State in the tournament, especially as a #11 seed. This team was simply over matched against teams in the Mountain West conference and now they are facing the top teams in the country. They are extremely undersized and don't rebound very well, although they do shoot over 40% from the three point line. If the Rams are going to win a game in the tournament, they will need to do by getting hot from beyond the arc.

3 Marquette vs 14 BYU/Iona

Marquette wins 9 of 10

Why Marquette Will Win. . .

The Golden Eagles are one team you can never count out. They have come back from double-digit second half deficits on multiple occasions. They do this by scoring and playing stifling defense. The Big East player of the year Jae Crowder is a mismatch for anyone who guards him. Darius Johnson-Odom is a premier scorer who can score from anywhere on the floor. This team will get after you and aren't afraid to take it to the rim. Marquette can beat themselves with turnovers at times, but if they take care of the ball this is a Final Four team.

Why BYU/Iona Will Win. . .

As I said above, I believe Iona is going to win the play-in game and get to this spot. If they do, they could give Marquette a tough game. Mike Glover can score on the inside with the best of them. The Gaels could be this year's VCU, but they have a tough path to get to a Sweet 16.

7 Florida vs 10 Virginia

Florida wins 6 of 10

Why Florida Will Win. . .

Florida was a top-10 team in the preseason rankings, so this is a team that is underseeded in the tournament. They have five players who score in double digits and all of them aren't to get in and get a rebound. The front-runner for the Gators is Kenny Boynton, a junior guard who is terrific from beyond the arc. This is one of the most efficient offenses in the country and they take care of the ball. They started to get into their stride in the SEC tournament, so this could be a team to watch in the Sweet 16.

Why Virginia Will Win. . .

Virginia's defense is well-chronicled. Tony Bennett has this team in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007. They started their season winning 14 of 15, but since have gone just 8-8. Their defense keeps them in games though, as seven of their nine losses were by three points or less. They do have an interior scorer in Mike Scott who can get it going at any time. If this team can get back on track, their defense could take them into a Sweet 16.

2 Missouri vs Norfolk State

Missouri wins 10 of 10

Why Missouri Will Win. . .

You shouldn't have to make much of an argument to have the Tigers in your Final Four. Missouri went 30-4 and won their conference tournament, showing consistency the whole season. They have arguably the best guard play in the country and Kim English is one of the best shooters in the country. This team will cruise past Norfolk State, but do have some tough matchups on their road to the Final Four.

My West Region Bracket

Sweet 16: Michigan State, Louisville, Marquette, ~~Missouri~~ Florida

Elite 8: Michican State, Marquette

Upsets: Florida over Missouri

50-50 Picks: Memphis over Saint Louis

It's mostly chalk in this region. The toughest game to pick is Memphis and Saint Louis, who are good teams. I just have some feeling that Missouri will fall early, but I couldn't pull the trigger on taking Florida over them, although I wanted to. EDIT: I decided to take Florida over Missouri. This could be my make or break pick of the tourney. Instead, I took Marquette in what would be an amazing game. When all is said and done, I am taking Izzo and Spartans to move on to the Final Four.

NCAA Tournament - East Region Preview

2012-03-13T00:38:00.003-05:00

I move over to the East Region for my next tournament preview. In case you missed it, I already previewed the South Region. Before I get started, here's another couple tips for filling out your bracket:

A premier scorer should never be overlooked. We have seen in the past that one player can carry a team. We had Kemba Walker last year and names like Jimmer Fredette, Stephen Curry, and Carmelo Anthony in recent history.
Don't overlook recent tournament history. Take Syracuse for example. In the past 5 years, the Orange have been no worse than a #5 seed, but they have only reached the Sweet Sixteen twice in that span.

Again, below each matchup I'm giving you what I believe would be the result of a ten game series between the 2 teams. I'm also automatically advancing the #1 and #2 seeds. Here we go:

1 Syracuse vs 16 UNC Asheville

Syracuse wins 10 of 10

Why Syracuse Will Win. . .

Syracuse has only two losses on the season and is one of the deepest teams in the country. Still, most experts don't have the Orange in their Final Four and I am no different. The Orange have a hall of fame coach and play their signature zone which gives some teams problems. What they don't have is that premier scorer that can carry them in the second half of a game. They are also susceptible on the boards. If they run into a team that can hit 3's against their zone they could fall early. Still, it would be hard to not see Syracuse at least move on to the Sweet 16.

8 Kansas State vs 9 Southern Miss

Kansas State wins 8 of 10

Why Kansas State Will Win. . .

If there is one team in the country that Missouri doesn't want to play, it's Kansas State. The Wildcats beat Missouri twice this season and also notched wins against Baylor, Alabama, and Texas. Kansas State has shown it can compete against any team out there. They have the ability to get to the rim and clean up the boards. Jamar Samuels and Rodney McGruder could take this squad into the Sweet 16.

Why Southern Miss Will Win. . .

There isn't anything spectacular about Southern Miss. They haven't beaten or even played a ranked team all season, and that lack of experience against top teams could hurt them in the tournament. The Golden Eagles do have some solid depth and can get scoring from several different players. They also rebound well and take care of the ball, so they could give Kansas State a tough game. A Sweet 16 is unlikely, but in the NCAA tournament, you never know.

5 Vanderbilt vs 12 Harvard

Vanderbilt wins 9 of 10

Why Vanderbilt Will Win. . .

The Commodores are the trendy pick in the East region. They are coming off a big win over #1 Kentucky and an SEC tournament title. John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor can score with the best of them and Festus Ezeli is a force in the interior. However, their win against Kentucky came in their 3rd attempt and they are only 3-6 against ranked teams. This team has lofty Final Four expectations that will be difficult to live up to, but if they can build off of their momentum from the SEC tournament, they have the talent to go far.

Why Harvard Will Win. . .

Harvard basketball is at it's pinnacle right now. They are in the NCAA tournament for only the second time, the other being back in 1946. They also are the Alma mater of Jeremy Lin, who been all the hype in the sports world over the last few months. The Crimson are probably the smartest team in the tournament as well. All that being said, Harvard doesn't match up athletically with a Vanderbilt team. It would take a near perfect game to win their first tournament game ever, but they did beat Florida State early in the season. If you are looking for a 12-5 upset, I'd probably avoid this one, but that's also what they said about Lin.

4 Wisconsin vs 13 Montana

Wisconsin wins 9 of 10

Why Wisconsin Will Win. . .

It isn't always pretty to watch and it usually doesn't look spectacular in the box score, but the Badgers know how to win. The formula for the Badgers is simple, play defense and take care of the ball. This is evident as the Badgers have the best scoring defense in the country, are 8th in field goal percentage defense and are second in turnovers with less than 9 per game. The Badgers are led by senior guard Jordan Taylor, who has the ability to hit big shots and can carry this team in close games. The Badgers also shoot free throws very well and can get hot from beyond the arc. The Badgers are usually in the upset talk, but this is Wisconsin's 15th straight tournament appearance and they have won at least one game in each of the last 5 years. Expect the Badgers to make a run and have a possible match up with Ohio State in the Elite 8.

Why Montana Will Win. . .

Montana enters the tournament having won 14 straight and 20 of their last 21 games. The Grizzlies get great production from Will Cherry (16 PPG) and have five players averaging 9+ PPG. Their strength, however, is defense. They are solid in both scoring defense and field goal percentage defense. This team would throw most teams off their game, but may play right into Wisconsin's style. Their lack of depth is a concern as well, so even though some people have labeled Montana as a possible upset team, it will be difficult for the Grizzlies to get past Wisconsin.

6 Cincinnati vs 11 Texas

Texas wins 5 of 10

Why Cincinnati Will Win. . .

Cincinnati has had some perplexing losses this season and has also had some great wins, including a win over #2 Syracuse in the Big East tournament. The Bearcats are a physical squad who have a presence in Yancy Gates, who nearly averages a double-double. In all, the Bearcats have four starters who score in double digits and they all rebound well. Cincinnati's season could have fell apart following the brawl (and 20 point loss) against Xavier, but the team rebounded nicely and played well down the stretch. They are a tough out and could find themselves in the Sweet 16.

Why Texas Will Win. . .

J'Covan Brown knows how to score. Brown averages over 20 points per game and is a threat to put up 30 on any given night. Although the Longhorns have only won 20 games, they played the top teams in the Big 12 closely. Texas does rebound well and can get scoring from other sources, but they likely will go as Brown goes. Texas may be going home early, but if Brown gets hot, he could easily carry Texas into a Sweet 16.

3 Florida State vs Saint Bonaventure

Florida State wins 9 of 10

Why Florida State Will Win. . .

Florida State did something this year that no team has done in 15 years, they beat both Duke and North Carolina twice in the same season. They also come into the tournament with momentum; their last two wins are on back-to-back nights against those aforementioned teams. The Seminoles do this with defense, ranking 5th in field goal percentage defense. They also have a knack for knocking down the big three. If Deividas Dulkys can play like he did in their 33 point beat-down of North Carolina and Michael Snaer is on, this team could find itself in the Final Four.

Why Saint Bonaventure Will Win. . .

The Bonnies played themselves into the tournament by knocking off Xavier in the A-10 championship. They will need solid play from 6'9" senior Andrew Nicholson, who averages 18 points and 8 rebounds per game, but it will take a flawless game for them to get past Florida State in the round of 64. However, Saint Bonaventure burst some bubbles when it won the A-10 tournament, so they are playing with nothing to lose, which is always dangerous.

7 Gonzaga vs 10 West Virginia

West Viriginia wins 6 of 10

Why Gonzaga Will Win. . .

It was way back in 1999 when Gonzaga became everyone's favorite cinderella team. Gonzaga is now a mainstay in March, but that hasn't resulted in much success once they get there. They advanced to the Sweet 16 in three straight years from 1999-2001, but have only made it there twice since then. This Gonzaga team is solid, but not as good as some of their past teams. They do have four players averaging double digits and rebound well. It used to be the popular thing to pick Gonzaga, but this year you may want to look elsewhere for a cinderella. But then again, they have always done their best as the underdog.

Why West Virginia Will Win. . .

West Virginia has the Big East's top scorer in senior forward Kevin Jones. Jones also averages 11 boards and gets a block per game. The team as a whole rebounds well and they get added scoring from Darryl Bryant and Deniz Kilicli. There is no doubt about it though, this is Jones' team. The Mountaineers have been struggling as of late however, having lost 8 of their last 12 games. If West Virginia is going to win, it will need to be at the hands of Kevin Jones.

2 Ohio State vs 15 Loyola (MD)

Ohio State wins 10 of 10

Why Ohio State Will Win. . .

In a region full of elite scorers, the best player has to be Jared Sullinger. Sullinger is nearly unstoppable down low and is simply a beast. Along with Sullinger's 17 points per game, the Buckeyes get another 30 points per game from Deshaun Thomas and William Buford. With Aaron Craft spreading the ball around effectively, this team is hard to contain. It's surprising to see seven losses on their record, but six of those came against top-20 teams and the loss against Kansas came without Sullinger. This team is poised to make a Final Four and likely would've been a #1 seed had won the Big Ten final against Michigan State.

My East Region Bracket

Sweet 16: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Florida State, Ohio State

Elite 8: Wisconsin, Ohio State

Upsets: Texas over Cincinnati, West Virginia over Gonzaga, Wisconsin over Syracuse

50-50 Picks: Texas over Cincinnati

I believe the East Region is the best from top to bottom. I have Ohio State coming out of this region, and the only team I see possibly beating them is Wisconsin, since they did so earlier this year. Again, I don't have many upsets early besides Texas and West Virginia winning in the round of 64, but I do have Wisconsin knocking off Syracuse. I could really go either way with the Texas-Cincinnati game, but I took Texas because I believe the Big 12 is better at the top than the Big East is this year.

NCAA Tournament - South Region Preview

2012-03-12T19:32:00.001-05:00

It's March Madness time again and everyone is busy filling out there bracket. Whether you are going chalk or trying to pick the next Cinderella team, you can't go wrong. There really is a lot of luck in picking a bracket, since almost any team can win on any given day. Here are a few tips before we get started:

Don't always listen to the "experts". They likely know more about college basketball than you do, but when they give you an upset pick to watch, they themselves aren't probably going to pick them. No one wants to hear them all say they are going chalk, so keep that in mind.
Don't pick too many upsets. Last year was a crazy tournament, but there were still only 7 upsets in the round of 64, which is actually below the average of 8.
There is luck involved, but don't overlook the odds. I always look at how teams would do in a ten game series. You'll see below how I think each team would do in a ten game series.
Always pick 1, 2 and 3 seeds in their first round games. The points you earn by picking the upset is usually the same you earn for picking the top seed. A 14, 15, or 16 seed is likely not going to advance, so make the smart pick. No one cares if you finally picked the crazy upset after trying for 5 years.
When in doubt, go chalk.
Have fun, it only comes around once a year.

I'm starting with the South region where Kentucky is the favorite. I automatically advance all #1 and #2 seeds, so you won't get any insight on #15 and #16 seeds. Remember, filling out a bracket is supposed to be fun, so don't worry to go outside the popular picks. Stay tuned for the rest of the regions which will be coming over the next couple days.

1 Kentucky vs 16 Mississippi Valley State/Western Kentucky
Kentucky wins 10 of 10

Why Kentucky Will Win. . .
Kentucky is the best team in the country. Anthony Davis is the best player in the country. John Calipari continually has top NBA talent on his team and this year is no different with Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller and Marquis Teague. A Final Four appearance is almost a certainty with this squad.

8 Iowa State vs 9 Connecticut
Iowa State wins 5 of 10

Why Iowa State Will Win. . .
Royce White is a talented 6'8" sophomore who can score from anywhere on the floor. He averages 13 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and a steal per game, making him an all-around talent which will be hard to contain. Iowa State also shoots the three very well, especially senior guard Scott Christopherson who hits 45% from beyond the arc. White is talented enough to carry the team, but if they shoot well they can compete with anyone, as we saw in Big 12 play where they notched wins against Kansas and Baylor and played Missouri tough twice.

Why Connecticut Will Win. . .
Connecticut is the defending national champions and were #4 in the preseason rankings, but a tough Big East schedule and bad play resulted in a sub-.500 conference record. Nonetheless, Connecticut still is one of the more talented squads in the tourney. Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier, and Alex Oriakhi all return from last year's championship team, and they add talented freshmen Ryan Boatright and Andre Drummond. If this team plays smart, they can make a run, but there is a reason they were 8-10 in the Big East this year.

5 Wichita State vs 12 VCU
Wichita State wins 7 of 10

Why Wichita State Will Win. . .
The Shockers are an experienced team, with five seniors getting significant minutes. Wichita State can play inside and outside. They have a 7-footer in Garrett Stutz and one the nation's best 3-point shooters (50%) in Joe Ragland, both of which are seniors. The Shockers also are smart with the ball, averaging only 12 turnovers per game and near the top in assist-to-turnover ratio. A smart, experienced club can usually do damage in the tournament and Wichita State is no different.

Why VCU Will Win. . .
Last year's cinderella team is dancing again. While they aren't as talented as last season, they play like a team that believes they are. They get after their opponents on defense, leading the nation in steals per game. The Rams average nearly as many steals as turnovers per game, so in order to beat them you must value each possession. Their downfall may be poor shooting from the perimeter and foul line, but if they can get points in transition, they could definitely be a Sweet 16 team.

4 Indiana vs 13 New Mexico State
Indiana wins 8 of 10

Why Indiana Will Win. . .
Indiana has competed against and beaten some of the nations best teams; Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan all fell to the Hoosiers. There is one thing those wins have in common though, they were all at home. Indiana struggles away from their home court, going just 8-8 away from Assembly Hall. They also enter the tournament without senior guard Verdell Jones III, whose leadership was huge for Tom Crean's squad. With that being said, they still have Cody Zeller, a big man who can get up and down the floor and score against anyone in the post. They also have a point guard in Jordan Hulls who takes care of the ball and a playmaker in Christian Watford, who if he gets hot, can take Indiana into a Sweet 16.

Why New Mexico State Will Win. . .
The Aggies are lead by double-double machine Wendell McKines, who averages nearly 19 points and 11 rebounds per game. New Mexico State can score with anyone and rebounds very well, but they have not played a ranked team all season, so it will be interesting to see how they match up with the best teams in the country. What may hurt the Aggies is their inability to knock down the three (just under 33% on the season). If they can get after the boards and can get points in the paint, the Aggies could pull off the upset.

6 UNLV vs 11 Colorado
UNLV wins 9 of 10

Why UNLV Will Win. . .
The Runnin' Rebels are one of the best teams in the country in assists per game. In addition to distributing the rock, they also rebound and score very well. At the center of this is Mike Moser, UNLV's talented sophomore forward. Moser averages a double-double in points and rebounds and also adds 2 assists, 2 steals and a block per game. Also, in case anyone forgot, UNLV beat #1 North Carolina back in November by 10. This team could have an Elite 8 run in them.

Why Colorado Will Win. . .
Colorado got into the NCAA tournament by winning the Pac-12 tournament. There is a lot to be said about the Pac-12 when their regular season champion is going to be playing in the NIT. They did take 2 out of 3 against California, their only fellow Pac-12 team in the tournament. The Buffaloes do have momentum coming into the tournament and have four players averaging double-digits this season. Even if Colorado takes care of the ball, Andre Roberson will have to play big for Colarado to avoid an early exit.

3 Baylor vs 14 South Dakota State
Baylor wins 9 of 10

Why Baylor Will Win. . .
Baylor did not lose a game until January 16th and all 7 losses this season have come against tournament teams. Baylor has the length and talent to be a Final Four contender, but they have been inconsistent down the stretch. Perry Jones III is one of the best players in the country and can overpower most defenders. Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller are also mismatches for most teams. Baylor is going to be more athletic than nearly every team they play, so as long as they show up on the big stage, you likely will see them highlighted on a lot of brackets. You likely will also see their highlighter jerseys show up in the Elite 8.

Why South Dakota State Will Win. . .
If you are picking a bracket based on mascots, you might have the Jackrabbits in your Final Four, but even those that aren't are looking at them giving Baylor a run. Most of the attention is on 6'4" guard Nate Wolters, who is a top-10 scorer in the nation. Wolters makes most of his living going to the line, averaging over seven free throws per game. However, Wolters shoots a dismal 24% from beyond the arc, while the rest of the team shoots almost 43%. It will be tough for Wolters to score inside against a lengthy Baylor team, so if he starts to settle for the outside shot, they won't have a chance.

7 Notre Dame vs 10 Xavier
Notre Dame wins 7 of 10

Why Notre Dame Will Win. . .
This game won't be exciting to watch unless you are a Notre Dame fan. The Fighting Irish limit possessions and slow the game down, forcing their opponents to beat them in the half court. Despite losing Tim Abromaitis early in the year to an ACL injury, Notre Dame managed to go 13-5 in the Big East. Their formula for success is limiting turnovers and getting good shots. As long as they stick to their game, they will be a tough out early in the tournament.

Why Xavier Will Win. . .
Even if you follow college basketball, they biggest story about Xavier is their brawl with Cincinnati earlier in the season. After winning that game by 23 points to go to 8-0 on the season, Xavier lost 5 of their next 6 and haven't been the same team since. Tu Holloway is a solid player who can go off at any time and Xavier has 10 players averaging double-digit minutes. Xavier has a solid scorer and depth, which are two things you need in the NCAA tournament. They hadn't beaten a good team since Cincinnati until they beat Saint Louis in the A-10 tournament, but maybe the Musketeers are getting it all together at the right time.

2 Duke vs 15 Lehigh
Duke wins 10 of 10

Why Duke Will Win. . .
You either love them or hate them, but you can't argue that Duke is one of the best programs in the country. Coach K is arguably the best coach out there, which is always something to keep in mind. That being said, Duke hasn't fared well in recent years. Mason and Miles Plumlee provide them with a present down low, Austin Rivers isn't afraid to take the big shot, and Seth Curry can score as well. They have a Final Four caliber team, but the route there isn't easy for the Blue Devils.

My South Region Bracket

Sweet 16: Kentucky, Wichita State, Baylor, Duke
Elite 8: Kentucky, Baylor
Upsets: Wichita State over Indiana, Baylor over Duke
50-50 Picks: Iowa State over Connecticut

I pretty much have gone chalk in the South region. I have Kentucky advancing to the Final Four. My only real upsets are Wichita St over Indiana to advance to the Sweet 16 and Baylor over Duke to get into the Elite 8. I also am taking Iowa State over Connecticut, which probably puts me in the minority.

Packers Draft Predictions

2012-03-05T16:09:00.000-06:00

It's that time of the year again. Just when you are finally getting over your Superbowl hangover, the scouting combine and NFL draft are upon us. This year the Packers have some issues to address, but once again are entering the draft with more flexibility than most teams. Their strategy will likely lean towards a best player available approach, but defense needs to be the focus. Sitting at #28, anything could happen. The Packers have done very well with late 1st round picks in recent years, getting Rodgers at #24 in 2005, Matthews at #26 in '09, and Bulaga and Sherrod at #23 and #32 respectively in the last two drafts. Here are my predictions for who the Packers should be targeting in this years' draft:.

Pick 28, Round 1 - DE Nick Perry, USC

The Packers have obvious needs to fill on defense, but this pick will come down to who is the best player available. A perfect fit here would be Nick Perry, a hybrid pass rusher from USC, who would provide pressure opposite Clay Matthews in our 3-4 defense. Perry likely will go anywhere form the mid-late 1st round, so chances are good he could fall to the Pack. It's also possible that CB Janoris Jenkins could fall farther than expected because of character issues. Jenkins has top-10 talent and would give the Packers options with Charles Woodson getting older and Nick Collins' future uncertain. It is even a possibility that the Packers could move up several spots for Jenkins or Perry. If both are gone, other possibilities are DT Fletcher Cox, RB Lamar Miller, or C Peter Konz.

Pick 28, Round 2 - FS George Iloka, Boise State

The Packers are likely going to stay on the defensive side of the ball, and assuming they go Perry in the 1st, they'll look to bolster their secondary with this pick. Iloka is a tall, lengthy safety who will need to bulk up in the NFL, but he has solid potential and had a solid showing at the combine. Boise State isn't on the same level as SEC, Pac-12, or Big Ten schools when it comes to strength & conditioning, so had Iloka been elsewhere his stock would probably be much higher. The Packers are pretty solid against the run, so Iloka would be allowed to roam as a free safety, where he is at his best. Other choices here are DE Vinny Curry, CB Jayron Hosley, or CB Trumaine Johnson.

Pick 28, Round 3 - OG Senio Kelemete, Washington

The Packers will need to address depth on the offensive line at some point in the draft and likely it will come here. It's going to be a matter of Ted Thompson taking the top lineman on his board, so I'm going with Senio Kelemete, a versatile lineman who is better suited for the interior in the NFL. Kelemete is athletic and has the ability to get to the second level on running plays, but lacks the size and technique to be a tackle in the NFL. Nonetheless, his versatility will help provide depth for the Packers who haven't addressed the issue so far this offseason. Again it all comes down to who is available and where Thompson has them ranked, but other names that could be called here are Kevin Zeitler, Amini Silatolu, James Brown, or Brandon Washington.

Pick 28, Round 4 - ILB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State

This name should sound familiar to college football followers, as Burfict was named Pac-10 freshman of the year in 2009 and was once considered one of the top linebackers in the country. Since then, things have gone downhill fairly quickly. Burfict has had on-field and off-field issues and didn't impress anyone at the combine. So why would I have the Packers taking him here in the 4th round? Well the real answer is why not? The Packers are a good team and taking a chance on a player like Burfict is something they can afford to do. Burfict may not be the elite linebacker many once thought, but he's also not a lost cause like some think. Somewhere in the middle is a solid NFL talent that, in the right situation, could be a steal at this point in the draft. Other possibilities here are QB Kirk Cousins, C Quentin Saulsberry, or TE Ladarius Green.

Pick 28, Round 5 - QB Russell Wilson, Wisconsin

You probably noticed I listed Kirk Cousins as a possibility with the last pick, well with Matt Flynn gone, the Packers need more than just Graham Harrell behind Aaron Rodgers on the depth chart. There may be some bias from me here, but I like the Packers taking Wilson from my Alma mater. The knock on Wilson is his size, but he is athletic and intelligent. Many compare him to Drew Brees, who also was overlooked by many for his size. There's not much else to say about this pick, but anything could happen here. Other names you should know are CB Justin Bethel and LB Tank Carder.

Pick 28, Round 6 - CB Justin Bethel, Presbyterian

I am putting it out there, but Bethel will be the steal of the draft for the Packers this year (I like him so much I gave him a video). At the combine, Bethel showed he has the athleticism to be in the NFL. His 39.5 inch vertical was best among DB's at the combine and he ranked 2nd in the broad jump. Bethel is touted for being great in run support and a solid tackler, so at worst he is a solid special teams player. The question about Bethel is the competition he played against, which could be said for any small school prospect. The talent is there though. Other possible positions here could be OL, RB, or DL.

Pick 28, Round 7 - OT Josh Oglesby, Wisconsin

Guessing a 7th round pick is nearly impossible, so I thought I'd give a little more love to a Wisconsin guy in Josh Oglesby. Oglesby has the size, but may lack the quickness to block on the edge against NFL talent. Chances are good Oglesby gets drafted before this, but if not, you can never have too much depth on the offensive line. At this point, the Packers should have taken OLB/DE, CB, S, OL, and QB, so if they haven't filled one of the positions, they will here. Otherwise, look for RB or DL here.

Well that does it for my Packers draft predictions. If they get 2 of the guys I've listed above, it will be a good draft for the Green and Yellow. Look out for my full round 1 mock draft coming in the next couple weeks.

Erd's Weekly Rant

2011-09-13T16:56:00.002-05:00

I first would like to apologize to our few but faithful followers for a prolonged lack of activity on this blog. We've got one blogger getting married in a couple months, another one is engrossed in Madden 12 and the last one probably forgot how to post without help from the first two. But we are back and ready to make this the best sports blog it can be. I'm going to be releasing a weekly rant in which I hit on something that really bothered me throughout the week. I also will be doing a NFL and fantasy football preview every Thursday, so stay tuned. Welcome back, let's get on with the rant. . .

I am not a Jets fans, nor am I a Cowboys hater, but the Jets deserved to lose on Sunday night. My anger comes partly from Shonn Greene's poor fantasy performance, but it mostly stems from watching some of the worst offensive play-calling and scheming I have seen in a while. Let's start by breaking down a few numbers from the game:

Shonn Greene - 10 carries, 1 target/1 catch
LaDainian Tomlinson - 5 carries, 7 targets/6 catches
Running plays per down - 1st down 13 , 2nd down 2, 3rd down 0
Back to back running plays - 0

Here is the Jets' play-by-play for those doubters;

New York Jets at 10:27
1st and 10 at NYJ 22	M.Sanchez sacked at NYJ 17 for -5 yards (D.Ware).
2nd and 15 at NYJ 17	M.Sanchez pass short right to S.Holmes to NYJ 22 for 5 yards (O.Scandrick).
3rd and 10 at NYJ 22	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short right to S.Holmes to NYJ 28 for 6 yards (S.Lee).
4th and 4 at NYJ 28	T.Conley punts 48 yards to DAL 24, Center-T.Purdum. D.Bryant pushed ob at DAL 36 for 12 yards (I.Trufant).
New York Jets at 4:31
1st and 10 at NYJ 16	S.Greene up the middle to NYJ 21 for 5 yards (K.Brooking).
2nd and 5 at NYJ 21	M.Sanchez scrambles right guard to NYJ 24 for 3 yards (A.Spencer). FUMBLES (A.Spencer), recovered by NYJ-M.Mulligan at NYJ 33. M.Mulligan to NYJ 33 for no gain (K.Brooking).
1st and 10 at NYJ 33	S.Greene left guard to NYJ 37 for 4 yards (J.Hatcher).
2nd and 6 at NYJ 37	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short left to S.Greene to NYJ 44 for 7 yards (M.Jenkins).
1st and 10 at NYJ 44	S.Greene right tackle to NYJ 45 for 1 yard (A.Spencer).
2nd and 9 at NYJ 45	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short left to L.Tomlinson ran ob at 50 for 5 yards (S.Lee).
3rd and 4 at 50	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short left to S.Holmes to DAL 42 for 8 yards (B.Church).
1st and 10 at DAL 42	L.Tomlinson right tackle to DAL 38 for 4 yards (S.Lee).
2nd and 6 at DAL 38	M.Sanchez pass incomplete short left to S.Holmes.
3rd and 6 at DAL 38	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete deep left to P.Burress.
4th and 6 at DAL 38	T.Conley punts 31 yards to DAL 7, Center-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-J.Westerman.
New York Jets at 12:44
1st and 10 at DAL 46	M.Sanchez pass incomplete short right to J.Conner [D.Ware].
2nd and 10 at DAL 46	(Shotgun) L.Tomlinson right tackle to DAL 44 for 2 yards (J.Hatcher).
3rd and 8 at DAL 44	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete short left to S.Holmes.
4th and 8 at DAL 44	T.Conley punts 35 yards to DAL 9, Center-T.Purdum, fair catch by D.Harris.
New York Jets at 9:08
1st and 10 at NYJ 26	S.Greene left guard to NYJ 29 for 3 yards (J.Price-Brent).
2nd and 7 at NYJ 29	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete short right to J.Cumberland [A.Spencer].
3rd and 7 at NYJ 29	M.Sanchez pass incomplete deep right to S.Holmes.
4th and 7 at NYJ 29	T.Conley punts 40 yards to DAL 31, Center-T.Purdum. D.Harris to DAL 37 for 6 yards (B.Pool).
New York Jets at 3:16
1st and 10 at NYJ 13	M.Sanchez pass deep right to S.Holmes to NYJ 30 for 17 yards (A.Ball).
1st and 10 at NYJ 30	(No Huddle, Shotgun) L.Tomlinson up the middle to NYJ 33 for 3 yards (S.Lee; D.Ware).
2nd and 7 at NYJ 33	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short right to D.Keller to NYJ 44 for 11 yards (S.Lee).
1st and 10 at NYJ 44	(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short left to L.Tomlinson ran ob at DAL 47 for 9 yards.
2nd and 1 at DAL 47	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez sacked at NYJ 47 for -6 yards (D.Ware).
3rd and 7 at NYJ 47	(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short right to D.Keller pushed ob at DAL 36 for 17 yards (G.Sensabaugh).
1st and 10 at DAL 36	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short right to L.Tomlinson pushed ob at DAL 4 for 32 yards (G.Sensabaugh).
	Timeout #1 by NYJ at 00:48.
1st and 4 at DAL 4	M.Sanchez pass incomplete short right to D.Mason.
2nd and 4 at DAL 4	M.Sanchez pass short right to D.Keller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
	N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Purdum, Holder-M.Brunell.
	N.Folk kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to end zone, Touchback.
New York Jets at 15:00
1st and 10 at NYJ 20	S.Greene left guard to NYJ 18 for -2 yards (J.Hatcher; S.Lee).
2nd and 7 at NYJ 23	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short right to D.Mason to NYJ 28 for 5 yards (B.Church).
3rd and 2 at NYJ 28	M.Sanchez pass short right to D.Mason to NYJ 29 for 1 yard (A.Ball).
4th and 1 at NYJ 29	T.Conley punts 44 yards to DAL 27, Center-T.Purdum, fair catch by D.Harris.
New York Jets at 8:05
1st and 10 at NYJ 20	M.Sanchez pass deep left to J.Cumberland ran ob at DAL 47 for 33 yards.
1st and 10 at DAL 47	S.Greene right tackle to DAL 43 for 4 yards (D.Ware).
2nd and 6 at DAL 43	M.Sanchez pass short middle to D.Keller to DAL 33 for 10 yards (K.Brooking).
1st and 10 at DAL 33	M.Sanchez pass incomplete deep left to P.Burress.
2nd and 10 at DAL 33	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short middle to S.Holmes to DAL 27 for 6 yards (F.Jones).
3rd and 4 at DAL 27	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short left to L.Tomlinson pushed ob at DAL 20 for 7 yards (M.Jenkins).
1st and 10 at DAL 20	S.Greene right tackle to DAL 16 for 4 yards (K.Brooking).
2nd and 6 at DAL 16	M.Sanchez pass incomplete short middle to D.Keller (K.Brooking).
3rd and 6 at DAL 16	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete deep middle to D.Keller.
4th and 6 at DAL 16	N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Purdum, Holder-M.Brunell.
	N.Folk kicks 68 yards from NYJ 35 to DAL -3. D.Murray to DAL 11 for 14 yards (I.Trufant).
New York Jets at 0:49
1st and 10 at NYJ 10	M.Sanchez pass deep middle to P.Burress to NYJ 28 for 18 yards (G.Sensabaugh).
1st and 10 at NYJ 28	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short middle intended for D.Keller INTERCEPTED by S.Lee at NYJ 38. S.Lee for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short middle intended for D.Keller INTERCEPTED by S.Lee at NYJ 38. S.Lee pushed ob at NYJ 1 for 37 yards (D.Ferguson).
	End of Period
New York Jets at 14:50
1st and 10 at NYJ 16	S.Greene right tackle to NYJ 15 for -1 yards (K.Coleman; S.Lissemore).
2nd and 11 at NYJ 15	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short middle to S.Holmes to NYJ 43 for 28 yards (A.Elam). DAL-M.Jenkins was injured during the play.
1st and 10 at NYJ 43	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short right to D.Mason to DAL 44 for 13 yards (A.Elam).
1st and 10 at DAL 44	(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short right to L.Tomlinson to DAL 33 for 11 yards (A.Ball).
1st and 10 at DAL 33	(No Huddle, Shotgun) L.Tomlinson left guard to DAL 26 for 7 yards (S.Lee).
2nd and 3 at DAL 26	(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete deep left to P.Burress (B.McCann).
3rd and 3 at DAL 26	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass deep left to P.Burress for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by Replay Assistant and Upheld.
	N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Purdum, Holder-M.Brunell.
	N.Folk kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to end zone, Touchback.
New York Jets at 8:59
1st and 10 at NYJ 3	S.Greene left guard to NYJ 9 for 6 yards (J.Ratliff).
2nd and 4 at NYJ 9	M.Sanchez pass deep middle to P.Burress to NYJ 35 for 26 yards (A.Ball).
1st and 10 at NYJ 35	M.Sanchez pass incomplete short left to P.Burress.
2nd and 10 at NYJ 35	(Shotgun) L.Tomlinson up the middle to NYJ 35 for no gain (S.Lee).
3rd and 10 at NYJ 35	(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass deep right to D.Keller to DAL 46 for 19 yards (S.Lee).
1st and 10 at DAL 46	M.Sanchez sacked at DAL 46 for 0 yards (D.McCray). FUMBLES (D.McCray) [D.McCray], RECOVERED by DAL-D.McCray at NYJ 47. D.McCray to NYJ 47 for no gain (L.Tomlinson).
New York Jets at 2:16
1st and 10 at NYJ 20	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short left to P.Burress to NYJ 22 for 2 yards (M.Jenkins).
2nd and 8 at NYJ 22	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete deep right to D.Mason.
3rd and 8 at NYJ 22	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short right to L.Tomlinson to NYJ 31 for 9 yards (S.Lee).
1st and 10 at NYJ 31	(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete short right to S.Holmes.
2nd and 10 at NYJ 31	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete short right to L.Tomlinson.
3rd and 10 at NYJ 31	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez sacked at NYJ 29 for -2 yards (A.Spencer).
	Timeout #2 by DAL at 01:10.
4th and 12 at NYJ 29	T.Conley punts 41 yards to DAL 30, Center-T.Purdum. D.Harris to DAL 41 for 11 yards (N.Bellore).
New York Jets at 0:49
1st and 10 at DAL 34	S.Greene up the middle to DAL 32 for 2 yards (S.Lee).
	Timeout #1 by NYJ at 00:41.
2nd and 8 at DAL 32	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete short right to D.Mason (A.Ball).
3rd and 8 at DAL 32	(Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete short left to P.Burress (M.Jenkins).
4th and 8 at DAL 32	N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Purdum, Holder-M.Brunell.
	N.Folk kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to end zone, Touchback.

These numbers don't even start to show how predictable the Jets offense was. Their formations and personel were great indicators of what play was coming next. For example, both of their 2nd down running plays were draw plays for Tomlinson out of the shotgun formation and 4 of Tomlinson's 5 carries were from the shotgun. On the other hand, all 10 of Greene's carries came on 1st down with Sanchez under center. The most alarming of these stats is the last one. The Jets did not run single back-to-back running plays the entire game! For a team that has built its identity around the run, this should be a red flag to all fans. If the Jets think that it is time to hand Mark Sanchez the team, they are in for a shock. There are a handful of quarterbacks in this league that can pick apart a defense even when they know what is coming, but they are named Tom, Peyton, Drew and Aaron, not Mark.

I'm not going to give them a break either and say that this is a product of the shortened offseason. Their entire offensive core has returned, so there wasn't anything new to learn. This is likely more a product of their overconfident approach - assuming that they can win on talent and not intelligence. They luckily escaped with a win, thanks to Tony Romo's continued late-game mistakes, but hopefully this game will humble Rex Ryan and they'll start to give Shonn Greene a few more carries. Maybe next week they will put more effort into their gameplans instead of their pre-game antics.

2011-06-13T22:12:00.005-05:00

"Buster Posey Injury, Instant Replay, and collisions at the Plate.... The New Age of Baseball"

I am sure the baseball purists are going to attempt to hack this one up with a machete, but I am sorry to inform those people that their day is done. Baseball is (attempting) to enter the 21st century. Word on the street is that there is even some revolutionary technology which allows officiating crews to make accurate calls with almost absolute 100% accuracy. Such technology should be debated and beat to a pulp, argued over, and blogged about. I mean come on, in a sport which billions of dollars is involved, why would you want the correct call made when you can have the "human element" of the game make a billion dollar mistake? Instant replay is a positive thing, and the new age of baseball needs to get over its ancient historic self and get on board. Every other sport has incorporated instant replay in some format, and I declare all instances successful. The increased length of the game argument is nonsense, and absolutely untrue. MLB, get instant replay into games immediately.

The next advancement past the dark ages is the MLB rule (policy, concept, etc) of collisions at home plate. Unfortunately, as all too often the case, someone must suffer to cause change. That person is Buster Posey. A young, very promising catcher for the San Francisco Giants, Posey was plowed into at home plate, snapping his leg like a twig. Posey's season is over, and the outlook is grim for the Giants as well. Don't get me wrong, Posey is not an innocent victim. He came up playing the catcher position, and undoubtedly took several home plate collisions. He should know how to position himself safely for this violent play. This time, Posey decided to essentially kneel down and lay back over his legs to block the runner from touching home plate. The result was gut wrenching, will undoubtedly change the Giants season, and could possibly alter the career of one of the most exciting up and coming players in baseball. The play by Scott Cousins was 100% legal, was in no way illegal, and I do not condemn him whatsoever. My issue is with the rule which allows collisions at the plate. There is no reason for this play, and baseball needs to eliminate it. Baseball is a one on one sport for the most part, with bits and pieces of team play in the field. It is non-contact, non-aggressive sport, at least not in the way other sports such as hockey and football are. No other player in the field is allowed to bump an opposing player, charge, or make any form of aggressive action during the game. There is no reason to have baseball players running full speed, full contact into a non moving player, who's first objective is to catch a ball coming towards him from a completely different direction. It is unsafe, careless, and is just leaving a window open for serious injury. The NFL and the NHL have both made extremely significant strides towards protecting their players by eliminating headshots, hits to defenseless players, and head to head hits. They have done this by fining, penalizing, and suspending their players for such actions. These sports are popular because of their violent nature, and they glorify it, yet they have realized steps were necessary to protect its athletes from serious injury. MLB does not even need to punish their players, they simply need to make an adjustment to an obscure curious rule from the past. I like to see a good collision at the plate as much as anyone, but to see a Ryan Howard or Lance Berkman charging full speed into the bodies of 200 pound catchers with the intention of dislodging the ball causes me to squirm a bit. Take one look at the Buster Posey video, and you can see the potential harm. A big argument I hear is that these catchers have so much equipment on, that it doesn't matter. Another ridiculous argument. The catcher's equipment is designed to protect him from 95 mph fastballs being deflected in 1/20th of a second in a direction physically impossible for a human to react to. It is not designed for, and in no way does it protect them from physical collisions. The NFL and the NHL's players are the most protected (as far as equipment) of any sport, and yet they have taken the aforementioned steps to protect their players.

Using the Posey play as an example, I would have felt the same excitement had Cousins taken a wide angle and tried to make an athletic play into home, while watching Posey (not on his knees in such a horrid position) make a catch and try to bring the glove across on top of Cousins. Anyone who has played baseball knows that this is not an easy play to make, and would have had a much better outcome for the "defenseless player" that in this case is the catcher. MLB, make this change now, and take a step into the new age. Hopefully then we will not need to see another terrific athlete like Buster Posey in a cast attempting to recover and save his career at age 24 after a lifetime of hard work.

O Canada - Hockey's Home and Native Land!!!

2011-06-01T13:51:00.000-05:00

I could continue going with the Canadian national anthem, but I think you get the picture. It is common knowledge that hockey is the lifeblood of Canada. Take high school football in Texas and basketball at Rucker Park and put them together, that's how much hockey means to Canada. While the youngsters are learning to skate before they can read, the adults are spending every last loonie to support their local hockey team, whether they are mini-mites or NHL superstars.

So why do I care you ask? Well, the latest news is that the Atlanta Thrashers are officially on the move to Winnipeg, bringing an NHL team back to the city. So I got to thinking. How much could the league benefit from a mass exodus of teams from non-supportive US cities to Canadian metropolises? While other bloggers here are asking for hockey teams to come to cities like Milwaukee, I say why not send them where they will be fully appreciated. I sat down and thought about the potential of capturing the magic of the United States vs. Canada gold medal game in the 2010 Winter Olympics and putting it into the NHL.

Unfortunately, this means that many US cities are going to lose their professional hockey team. The following cities are the likely victims of my "hockey exodus":

Atlanta Thrashers move to Winnipeg
This move is finalized now. Atlanta has ranked 22nd, 23rd, 30th, 29th and 28th in attendance during the past five seasons and actually has over 200,000 less people than Winnipeg Most hockey fans will remember the Winnipeg Jets, who moved from the city in 1996. This move is going to be the beginning of the movement north.

Phoenix Coyotes move to Quebec City
Phoenix is likely the next team on the move. While Phoenix is one of the largest cities in the country, it has failed to help the Coyotes make a profit. Even "The Great One" can't bring the Coyotes out of the red. All signs point to this franchise going back north-of-the-border. Quebec City has been without an NHL team since '95 and are ready to support a franchise once again.

New York Islanders move to Hamilton
Jim Balsillie has been trying to bring the National Hockey League to Hamilton for many years now, but always seems to fall short of his goal. However, don't expect him to give up until he succeeds. Look no further than the Islanders as a likely suitor for Hamilton. The Islanders aren't second fiddle when comes to professional sports in New York, they are behind the Yankees, Rangers, Giants, Jets, and Mets. No one will miss the Islanders, and Mr. Balsille is persistent.

Nashville Predators move to Saskatoon-Regina area
Nashville almost moved in 2007, but fell through when a deal didn't materialize. The team is now owned by a group of investors that want to keep the team in Nashville, but the team continues to be in the bottom 3rd of the league in attendance. Nashville has nearly 200,000 more people than Saskatoon and Regina combined, but is also a country music mecca, not a hockey hotbed. Recent success has likely kept the Preds in Nashville, but if they fail to get it done on the ice, a move may be imminent.

Columbus Blue Jackets move to Thunder Bay
Out of all the teams on the list, Columbus may be the least likely to move. They made the playoffs for the first time in the 2008-2009 season, but have had minimal success otherwise. Following the lockout in '05, the Blue Jackets have been near the bottom of the league when it comes to filling seats, and if that trend continues, those seats could become vacant permanently. As far as my potential location of Thunder Bay, it's just a thought. A waterfront arena that could bring fans in from Northeastern Minnesota, Northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan could be enough to fill the seats. Again, this move is very unlikely, but could be profitable investment for someone willing to take a risk.

Florida Panthers move to Halifax
I will preface by saying that Hockey in South Beach doesn't sound right. The Panthers actually play in Sunrise, FL, a city with less the 100,000 people in it. While they had some success in the mid-90's, the Panthers have not made the playoffs for a decade. Add on the fact that they are in an area that does not contain real hockey fans, and you can see the demise of this franchise sometime during the LeBron era in Miami. Halifax is the polar opposite of Miami, it lives and breathes hockey. The city has hosted the Ice Hockey World Championship and several other sporting events, which in Canada, generally always include hockey. Given their ability to attract hockey fans, Halifax would be a much better location for hockey than Sunrise, FL.

My New NHL Layout
The final part of my plan would be to realign the divisions. The goal here is to maintain divisional rivalries but create a new sense of US vs. Canada. Unfortunately, some teams in the states are gonna to be in Canadian division, but oh well, you get the picture.

US Atlantic
New York Rangers
New Jersey Devils
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Buffalo Sabres

US Central
Carolina Hurricanes
Tampa Bay Lightning
Washington Capitals
Chicago Blackhawks
Detroit Redwings

US Pacific
Anaheim Ducks
Dallas Stars
Los Angeles Kings
San Jose Sharks
Colorado Avalanche

Canada Atlantic
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs
Quebec City (Coyotes)
Boston Bruins

Canada Central
Hamilton (Islanders)
Thunder Bay (Blue Jackets)
Halifax (Panthers)
Saskatoon-Regina (Predators)
St Louis Blues

Canada Pacific
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers
Vancouver Canucks
Winnipeg (Thrashers)
Minnesota Wild

This Week In Golf - Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial

2011-05-18T16:35:00.002-05:00

Last Year

Zach Johnson shot 65-66-64-64 to beat Brian Davis by three strokes. Ben Crane and Jeff Overton tied for third place.

Fantasy Breakdown

Players to Think About

Matt Kuchar: I really like Matt Kuchar this week. Kuchar had his worst tournament of the year last week, a tie for 54^th at TPC Sawgrass. Kuchar’s track record at Colonial isn’t the best either, he tied for 56^th last year. So why am I picking Kuchar? He ranks 3^rd on tour in scoring average and 7^th in the all-around ranking. I have a feeling Kuchar bounces back this week and posts a top 15 score.

www.cbssports.com

Pat Perez: I am not a huge fan of Pat Perez, but it’s tough to ignore his history at this event. Perez has three top 10’s in his last three tries at Colonial. He has also posted three top 10’s in his last five events this season. Perez is a must-have on your fantasy lineup this week.

Zach Johnson: There was no way I could keep Zach Johnson off the list this week. He won here last year by three strokes and has been playing great lately. Two consecutive top 10’s and a victory here last year should mean that Zach Johnson will be in the mix on Sunday.

Players to Stay Away From

http://tucsoncitizen.com

Hunter Mahan: It kills me to put Hunter Mahan on the list this week and I expect him to prove me wrong. But, I can’t ignore Mahan’s history at Colonial. He has never posted a top 25 here in seven tries. Hunter is playing great golf right now, but you may want to avoid him this week and save your starts for other tournaments.

J.B. Holmes: J.B. Holmes hasn’t missed a cut all year and is coming off of two consecutive top 10’s. However, Holmes missed the cut both times he played at this event. What worries me is that J.B. wasn’t playing well coming into both of those tournaments and he is playing well coming into this one. I think he will make the cut this time, but I don’t expect another top 10 from J.B. this week.

Adam Scott: After playing great golf at the Masters, Adam Scott has slowly slumped again. Scott missed the cut last week and has five consecutive rounds in the 70’s. I think it is due to the putter. He has always been a solid ball striker, but Scott usually struggles with his putter. The short stick was great at the Masters, but he averaged 30 putts per round last week. If Adam Scott can’t get his putter going, it might be another missed cut for him this week.

My Picks

David Toms: David Toms finds himself on my list again this week because he continues to play great golf and place in the top 10. It’s very simply why Toms is on my list this week. He has five consecutive top 25’s, he ranks second on tour in driving accuracy and greens in regulation, and he tied for 13^th at Colonial last year.

www.pgatour.com

Stewart Cink: Stewart Cink is a safe play this week. I don’t think Cink will be top 5, but he is almost guaranteed to finish in the top 25. Cink has four consecutive top 25’s at this event and has never missed the cut.

Steve Marino: Steve Marino is a gut feeling for me this week. He missed the cut here last year, but finished in the top 10 the two years before that. He has played fairly well in his last two tournaments and I have a feeling Marino is going to be in contention on Sunday this week. I am pulling for Steve Marino to get his first PGA Tour victory at Colonial this week.

Booth’s Golf Tip of the Week – How to Win a Scramble

See next post.

stats from www.pgatour.com

How to Win a Scramble

2011-05-18T16:35:00.001-05:00

A scramble is not the true game of golf, but it is the most fun. Four guys using strategy and shooting rounds in the 60’s. I have way more fun playing in scrambles than playing 18 holes of stroke play. There a lot of players that go into a scramble with no strategy, but that’s a mistake. You can strategize to win and still have fun.

You don’t need four great golfers to win a scramble, although that would make it a lot easier. Most of us are average golfers and need to find a way to construct a great team with four average players. A team with handicaps of 4, 5, 5, and 6 are not necessarily going to beat a team with handicaps of 4, 6, 9, and 12. The key is to have four players that have different skill sets. Here are the four players you need:

The Leadoff: This player does not need to be a long ball hitter or have a low handicap. The leadoff player needs to do three things: hit fairways, hit greens, and putt well. I always tell the leadoff hitter that the team doesn’t need to use any of their shots for them to have a successful day. If the leadoff guy hits fairways and greens, it will take pressure off of the rest of the team and the other three players can be relaxed. This player also needs to make great lag putts. Every putt should be a tap in at the worst. Nothing is worse than having your first putter miss a putt by four feet and the other three players have to bear down to get one close instead of trying to make it. That is where you can lose a scramble.

The 2-Hole: The second player in the scramble needs to be similar to the leadoff player. I like the 2-hole player to have a little more distance off the tee, but that is not necessary. This player needs to be able to hit any fairways and greens that the leadoff player misses so that the next two can relax, hit hard drives, and shoot for pins. If the leadoff man is hitting the ball well, the 2-hole needs to be able to hit the ball a little farther and shoot closer to pins. I also like the second hitter to be an excellent chipper. It’s nice to have a guy that is great around the greens, just in case.

The Homerun Hitter: The third player does not need to be consistent, although it is obviously nice if he is. I call this spot the homerun hitter because the third player needs to hit long drives and shoot for pins. Hopefully one of the first two hitters hit the fairway so that the third guy can rip one. Hopefully one can also hit the green so he can shoot for the pin instead of the middle of the green. This is the guy that can hit a par 5 in two or make a long par 4 seem short. It’s very difficult to win a scramble without a guy that can bomb the ball.

The Anchor: The most important player on the team is the anchor. The anchor needs to be a good all-around player and has to be strong mentally. If you think a four-foot par putt is tough by yourself, imagine a four-foot par putt in a scramble when your team is counting on you after three other guys already missed the putt. There is more pressure on the anchor than any of the other three players. I was in a scramble a few years ago when I was an anchor. I was on a par 4, the first golfer hit it out-of-bounds, the second golfer chunked it in the weeds, and the third golfer also hit it out-of-bounds. It was up to me to hit a good drive in play. You need a strong minded fourth player to win a scramble. It is possible to win without a strong leadoff player, 2-hole guy, or homerun hitter, but it’s impossible to win without a solid anchor.

The one thing I didn’t mention is that you should try to have at least three good putters on the team. You won’t win a scramble with zero or one good putter and it’s difficult with only two.

Once again, this is a way for average golfers to succeed in a scramble. Obviously four anchors make the ideal team, but we don’t all have that option…

Even if you can’t win, remember that the most important thing about a scramble is to have a great time no matter how you play.

NBA Conference Finals Preview

2011-05-18T13:50:00.000-05:00

Well I want to start by apologizing to our few but faithful followers for being MIA the past couple weeks. I hope in the interim you have been enjoying baseball getting into full swing and the NHL playoffs, but most importantly, the NBA playoffs. I'm gonna break down the Conference Finals for you game by game, but before I do so, I'd like to comment on the NBA Lottery. If you didn't know, the Cavaliers won the first pick in the draft. It was a major victory for a Cavs team that everyone has pitied since the departure of LeBron. They will now pick 1st and 4th in the upcomnig draft, and in a league where an all-star player can lead you into the playoffs, the Cavs may find themselves making one of the greatest turnarounds in NBA history. If you look at their depth chart now, you would simply cringe. But the addition of a Kyrie Irving/Enes Kanter, Derrick Williams/Brandon Knight or any other combination of the aforementioned would likely make the Cavs immediate playoff contendors. As we saw in the years following their biggest lottery win ever in 2003, it really is a lottery. The Cavs won't need our pity anymore, and if they can add another key player in free agency, they may even earn our respect once again. I may go into this in more detail as the draft nears, but for now, it's time to break down the games.

Eastern Conference Finals - Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls

The Heat and the Bulls are almost polar opposites when it comes to their makeup. The Heat's success revolves around their 2 1/2 superstars. They can single-handedly score 90 points themselves, but if one of them is off, they really struggle unless a role player steps it up. On the other hand, the Bulls are built around role players who form a cohesive unit. They rely on defense, hustle and discipline to win games. They have good depth, but rely on Derrick Rose to lead them on the court. It's all gonna come down to how well the Heat can match the hustle and determination of the Bulls.

Game 1: I predicted a split in Chicago for this series, so I'm not surprised to see the Bulls come out and win. As mentioned, the difference in the game was rebounding and loose balls, which the Bulls clearly won.

Game 2: If my prediction holds true the Heat will take this game.

Game 3: Miami is going to be electric and Wade is going to be the difference. I predict a triple-double for him either in game 3 or 4.

Game 4: Again, Miami proves too much for Chicago as the Heat take a 3-1 lead.

Game 5: With their backs against the wall, the Bulls avoid elimination by holding the Heat under 90 points again.

Game 6: If you thought the Heat celebrated after defeating Boston, wait until you see their reaction after taking down the Bulls in game 6 to get to the finals.

Western Conference Finals - Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks

This is the battle of young versus old, up-and-coming all-stars versus aging veterans. There is plenty of excitement for both of these teams. OK City has never been here before, so they are playing with house money. Dallas is looking to erase the memories of their postseason failures. Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant are MVP caliber players. The matchup between Jason Kidd and Russell Westbrook features one of the best point guards of all time versus one of the most promising young points in the game today. I have no other in game insight to add, this series is simply gonna come down to who outscores the other team on the given night.

Game 1: Nowitzki set a playoff record at the foul line and JJ Barea and Jason Terry added 21 and 28 respectively to hold off the Thunder to get the win at home.

Game 2: OKC needs to find out how to defend Dirk without giving up open three-pointers to Dallas' shooters. They won't quite figure that out yet by Game 2, which Dallas will take.

Game 3: There's no place like home for the Thunder. They gameplan to go after Dirk on the offensive end, getting him into foul trouble early. With Dirk limited, the Mavs struggle to keep up and OKC takes it.

Game 4: OKC goes on an offensive onslaught, as Durant and Westbrook both score 30+ to get the win and tie the series at 2-2.

Game 5: Dallas gets red hot from beyond the arc to win game 5 and take back a 3-2 series lead.

Game 6: OKC falls behind early, but rallies in the fourth to force a game 7 in Dallas.

Game 7: The atmosphere in Dallas is undescribable as Dallas looks to get back to the NBA Finals. An early lead disintegrates, but JJ Barea comes up big again as he hits a last second three to win the series.

NHL Playoffs...Recap and Analysis

2011-05-17T22:28:00.003-05:00

My, oh my, oh my, have things changed since our last look into the NHL playoffs. A remarkably thrilling and "edge of your seat" type of first round was surely a precursor to an even more exciting second round. Yours truly broke down the second round and promised nothing but the best. For that, I certainly apologize. I am a die hard NHL fan. I'm talking the type of guy that watches before the playoffs.... watches before CBS picks the games up on Sundays. (By games, I mean the Red Wings, Flyers, or Rangers, of course). But wow. Thankfully the Red Wings came back from down 3-0 to the Sharks to make some excitement in round 2. Of course I have to eat a little crow, as my previous predictions were, well, less than stellar...

I had the Wings, Predators, Capitals, Hawks, Sharks, Sabres, Bruins, and Penguins advancing from the first round. I'll switch over to baseball and call it .625, which is pretty damn good. Round 2 was a straight yawner the entire way through, as the Bruins and Lightning swept the series with ease. Where did the Washington Capitals go? Where do they go each and every spring? This team is consistently the best in the league, and has now been swept by a lesser opponent 2 seasons in a row. The brass in Washington are being pressured to make it happen now, and to please the masses. They are going to have to make some high profile moves in the off season. The current squad clearly does not have the playoff swagger necessary for winning 16 playoff games.

The Bruins advancing was not really surprising, but the fact that they swept their nemesis from Philly was intriguing. They have solid tending in Tim Thomas, and a fairly deep roster of guys who know what they're doing in crunch time. Like I said going into round 1, the Flyers lack of a top tier goaltender and their aging roster just isn't cup worthy. Be prepared for some major retooling here as well, after back to back treks into the playoffs, this team is on the downswing.

Nashville put up a fight to the heavily favored Canucks, and there was a slight hint to the playoff collapse (see Washington Capitals) which the Canucks have been known for as of late. But once the smoke cleared, the veteran leadership prevailed, and the Preds just showed the league that they are merely a few keystone pieces away from being a real cup contender for the next 2-3 seasons. A solid influx of talent coming from the Admirals system is ready to help out next season.

In the final series, San Jose jumped out to a surprising 3 game lead. While the effort from the Red Wings was remarkable, and dare I say actually enjoyable to watch, it almost felt as though the Sharks were just playing it light until putting the nail in the coffin in game 7. Not the way they would have drawn it up, but the Red Wings never really gave me the feeling of being able to take control of the Sharks.

So here we go... another shot at the prediction game....

Tampa Bay Lightning - Boston Bruins (Series tied 1-1)

I haven't exactly been a believer of the Tampa Bay Lightning at all this season. They have flashes, but just don't seem to be a champion in my eyes. Their saving grace thus far has been the dinosaur Dwayne Roloson in net, and their spectacular coaching. Without a doubt, TB is the best coached team to this point, be it systems play, matchups, or lineup moves. I don't think they have enough to take it to the cup finals, however. Tim Thomas is a veteran goalie with a crazy unorthodox style (see Dominik Hasek), which this beat writer doesn't particularly enjoy, but respects highly. The Bruins have a better lineup top to bottom, and the return of rookie Tyler Seguin makes them that much more dangerous. He showed his impact tonight, netting 2 and helping on 2 other goals. The kid can flat out play, and he makes everyone around him better. He is the difference maker in the series. Roly the goalie holds Tampa in it, but Boston prevails 4-2.

Vancouver Canucks - San Jose Sharks ( Vancouver leads 1-0)

You don't want to put a series on the shoulders of any 1 individual, but I am going to do so on this occasion.... twice. This series sits between the pipes on both ends of the ice. Antti Niemi and Roberto Luongo can win or lose this series for their respective teams. Both offenses are powerhouses, and both defenses are solid. Luongo is the better goalie, but has not seen the type of playoff success necessary to be called a winner. It also doesn't help his cause that he has basically always had the best team in the league playing in front of him, and still not managed to win. He has been big this far into the playoffs, but can he finally take that step forward into goaltendings elite? Antti Niemi isn't as talented as Luongo, but when he has some support in front of him, has proven he can win. He won the cup last year with the best team in hockey in front of him, and was superb when he needed to be. He is in a very similar situation with San Jose. They have a winning team playing in front of him, so he only needs to be good, not great. If Niemi can stand on his head and make some of the saves like he did in last year's cup finals, the Sharks have the advantage. I bite my tongue and swallow my pride.... Niemi comes up big in game 6 to stave off elimination, and Joe (all I do is net playoff overtime goals) Pavelski is the hero in game 7 to take the big fish into the Stanley Cup Finals.

When all is said and done, the one thing you can count on this season in hockey is unpredictability. The sure things get swept 4-0, the kids look like seasoned pros, the impossible is standard, and the old timers look like 18 year old kids. Anything is possible, anything WILL happen, and the excitement will come. Look for this round to be gritty, high scoring, and much more exciting than the previous. I encourage everyone to watch, and I look forward to telling you I told ya so.

Last Week In Golf - The PLAYERS Championship

2011-05-16T16:10:00.000-05:00

K.J. Choi beat David Toms after Toms 3-putted the first playoff hole. Paul Goydos took third place losing by two strokes. Luke Donald and Nick Watney tied for fourth place.

3 Up

David Toms: David Toms had the lead late on Sunday, but couldn’t close the deal. Even though the pressure seemed to get to Toms, he had another solid week. Toms tied for first in driving accuracy and was fourth in greens in regulation. Toms has three top 10’s this year and is a consistent play every week.

http://pga-golf.findthebest.com

Jason Day: Jason Day is showing that he is one of the best young players on the PGA Tour. He has three top 10’s in a row, including a tie for second at the Masters. He ranked in the top 25 in all the major statistics last week. Look for Jason Day to keep rolling and have some more top 10 finishes in the near future.

Hunter Mahan: Even though he hasn’t won yet this year, Hunter Mahan has six top 10’s out of twelve tournaments and is putting together a nice season. Mahan is a player that could win any week. His stats last week weren’t overly impressive, but Mahan still found a way to place in the top 10 again.

3 Down

Tiger Woods: Tiger Woods was disappointing again last week. I thought he would play well after his good showing at the Masters, but I was mistaken. Tiger was six over after his first nine holes and withdrew due to injury. I thought Tiger was close to winning again, but after his bad play and banged up knee, I think he is moving in the wrong direction.

www.sandbox8.com

Jhonattan Vegas: Jhonattan Vegas burst onto the scene this year after winning the Bob Hope Classic and taking third at the Farmers Insurance Open, but I think it was a bit of a fluke. I’m not saying that Vegas isn’t going to be on the tour for a long time, but he isn’t going to be at the top of the leaderboard every week either. Vegas has missed five cuts in his last six tournaments; I think he has come back to reality.

Anthony Kim: It’s been an odd year for Anthony Kim. He started the year strong coming back from an injury, but has played poorly in the last few months. Kim has one top 20 and four missed cuts since February. I am a big fan of Kim and think that he is going to be a great golfer for a long time, but his game is off right now.

Fantasy Breakdown Results

Players to Think About (1-2-0 ; 3-5-1)

Phil Mickelson (Loss): Phil couldn’t seem to get anything going at TPC Sawgrass and finished in a tie for 33^rd. It’s not a terrible tournament for Phil, but I was expecting a for sure top 20 finish. I wouldn’t be worried about one mediocre week; Phil is still one of the best in the game.

Luke Donald (Win): Luke Donald did exactly what was expected, another top 10 finish. That is now seven in a row. I am still saying that Luke Donald is playing the best golf in the world right now.

Ian Poulter (Loss): I knew Poulter was a hit-or-miss type of pick last week. I had a feeling that Poulter was going to make some noise, but he ended up in a tie for 57^th. Poulter never broke 70 last week and had a tough time making birdies.

Players to Stay Away From (3-0-0 ; 6-1-2)

http://i.telegraph.co.uk

Dustin Johnson (Win): Dustin Johnson continues to slump. Johnson didn’t break 70 all week and tied for 57^th place. Dustin is one of my favorite players and should be back into top form in the near future.

Bubba Watson (Win): Bubba Watson has been playing great golf this year, but this just doesn’t seem to be his venue. Bubba did make the cut last week and had two good rounds. But his 76’s on Thursday and Saturday ruined Bubba’s chances of competing for another victory.

Charles Howell III (Win): I expected Howell to miss the cut last week and he did. Howell shot 73-74 and is now 0-for-4 at making the cut at the Players in the last four years.

My Picks (1-2-0 ; 4-4-1)

Tiger Woods (Loss): My pick of Tiger Woods was probably just wishful thinking. Deep down I knew Tiger’s injuries and poor play were going to continue, but I didn’t want to believe it. I think Tiger withdrew because he was six over, not because of his knee. I think his knee was bothering Tiger, but if he was a couple under par instead of six over, he would have still played. I miss the old Tiger Woods and so does the PGA Tour.

Ben Crane (Loss): Ben Crane’s week was just a shock to me. After three straight top 10’s at TPC Sawgrass, I thought Crane was a lock this week. Crane was off to a good start after a 68 on Thursday; however, a 76 on Sunday ruined all hopes that Crane was going to contend. If Crane shoots a 70 on Friday instead of a 76, he would have tied for 12^th instead of 45^th. One bad round cost Crane the tournament.

Sergio Garcia (Win): Sergio had me worried after his opening round of 74, but his 65 on Sunday helped Garcia finish in a tie for 12^th place. Sergio needs to work on his consistency, but he continues to shoot good rounds every tournament and make cuts. I am liking Sergio Garcia this year.

This Week's Record: 5-4-0

Overall Record: 13-10-4

Stay tuned for "This Week In Golf – Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial"

stats from pgatour.com

The Booth Review - MLB Standings

2011-05-13T12:35:00.002-05:00

It’s almost the middle of May and people are talking about the standings in baseball already. Here is a breakdown of my predictions for each division:

AL East

AL East
	W	L	GB
NY Yankees	20	13	-
Tampa Bay	20	15	1
Boston	17	19	4.5
Toronto	16	20	5.5
Baltimore	15	19	5.5

No Chance: Toronto and Baltimore. I give Toronto and Baltimore both no chance of making the playoffs. There is no way that these two teams can compete in this division.

Slim Chance: Tampa Bay. I am surprised that Tampa Bay is only one game back right now. I think by the end of the season, it will be the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Rays have a good rotation, but they don’t have the bats to match up against New York or Boston. Matt Joyce is hitting .356 and Ben Zobrist is hitting .282. This won’t last for long and the Rays will slump. Sometime in the second half of the season, I expect the Rays to be out of the running.

In the Running: NY Yankees and Boston. The Yankees and Red Sox will be fighting all the way to the end of the season this year. They both have an unbelievable lineup and are probably the best two teams in the American League.

My Prediction: Boston. I think the Red Sox will win this division. The Rays don’t have enough hitting and the Yankees can’t match the Red Sox pitching. The Yankees should be able to hang on to the wild card spot and the Rays will be left out this year.

AL Central

AL Central
	W	L	GB
Cleveland	23	11	-
Kansas City	18	17	5.5
Detroit	19	18	5.5
Chicago Sox	14	23	10.5
Minnesota	12	22	11

No Chance: Minnesota. The Twins have been one of the most consistent teams in baseball in the last few years, but this season has been terrible so far. Joe Mauer can’t get onto the field, they rank 28^th in team batting average and 29^th in team ERA.

Slim Chance: Chicago White Sox and Kansas City. The Chicago White Sox look good on paper, but they always seem to find a way to disappoint you. Their lineup should be better than this and they have four good starters that are underachieving. I still think they can come back and make a run at some point, but the chances are slim because they are already 10 games back. I for one am not giving any credit to the Kansas City Royals. They are swinging the bats well right now, but their starting pitching is a joke. I expect a slump soon and the Royals to fall off the map.

In the Running: Cleveland and Detroit. I am still leery of the Indians, but you can’t argue with how they are playing right now. Detroit has the hitting, but needs to get their team ERA down in order to win more games.

My Prediction: Detroit. I think Detroit will get hot at some point this season and Cleveland will cool down. I think it could be a close race, but the Tigers will pull it out.

AL West

AL West
	W	L	GB
LA Angels	21	16	-
Texas	19	18	2
Oakland	19	18	2
Seattle	16	20	4.5

No Chance: Seattle. Seattle is terrible again this year. Their pitching is ok, but they can’t hit. I expect the Mariners to be out of the playoff race sometime around the All-star break or sooner.

Slim Chance: None.

In the Running: LA Angels, Texas, and Oakland. All three of these teams are legit. The Angels are ranked 6^th in ERA, Texas is ranked 3^rd in runs, and Oakland is 1^st in team ERA. This could be a dogfight.

My Prediction: Texas. I wanted to take Oakland here because of their pitching, but I think Texas is the better team. I think Colby Lewis turns his season around soon and Texas wins the division in a close 3-team race.

NL East

NL East
	W	L	GB
Philadelphia	23	12	-
Florida	21	14	2
Atlanta	20	17	4
Washington	17	18	6
NY Mets	16	20	7.5

No Chance: NY Mets and Washington. These two teams are like Baltimore and Toronto in the AL East. They are both completely outmatched by the other three teams in this division. I give them both a 0.01% chance of making the playoffs.

Slim Chance: None.

In the Running: Philadelphia, Florida, and Atlanta. Philadelphia is the obvious front runner, but don’t look past Florida and Atlanta. These are two really good teams and have scary good pitchers.

My Prediction: Philadelphia. I think Philadelphia wins the division, but it will be close. I wouldn’t be surprised if Atlanta and Florida hang in all the way to the end. My prediction is that Atlanta gets the wildcard and Florida barely misses out.

NL Central

NL Central
	W	L	GB
St. Louis	21	15	-
Cincinnati	20	16	1
Pittsburgh	18	18	3
Milwaukee	16	20	5
Chicago Cubs	15	19	5
Houston	13	23	8

No Chance: Houston, Chicago Cubs, and Pittsburgh. Houston may be the worst team in the league and I think the Cubs are going south soon. The Cubs lineup is below average and their starting pitching is mediocre at best. I don’t expect them to be within 5 games of first for very long. Pittsburgh has been playing tough this year, but they will fade away soon. They don’t have the star players it takes to win a division.

Slim Chance: None.

In the Running: St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee. These three teams will be in a close race all year long. I think the Brewers slow start will turn around and they may be the team to beat in the second half of the season.

My Prediction: Milwaukee. You can call me a homer if you want, but I think the Brewers have the best team in the division. They are streaky, but their lineup is unreal. Their hitters consist of Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and Casey McGehee. Their starting rotation is Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, and Yovani Gallardo. There is no reason why the Brewers shouldn’t make the playoffs.

NL West

NL West
	W	L	GB
Colorado	19	15	-
San Francisco	19	16	.5
LA Dodgers	17	20	3.5
Arizona	15	19	4
San Diego	14	22	6

No Chance: San Diego and Arizona. The Padres have good pitching, but rank last in the league in batting average. Arizona doesn’t have a chance either. They don’t have the players to compete in any division.

Slim Chance: LA Dodgers. The Dodgers aren’t a bad team, but I don’t think they can hang with the Rockies and Giants for 162 games.

In the Running: Colorado and San Francisco. These two teams should be close all season long. The Giants can’t hit, but their pitching is phenomenal and the Rockies have a solid all-around team.

My Prediction: San Francisco. It was a tough decision, but I had to go with the best starting pitching. I think the Giants can pitch their way into the postseason again.

all stats from espn.com