tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-51856812158474154532024-10-08T23:17:57.381-04:00Low-frequency, high-probability option selling to scalp time premium & theta for income in the stock market.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger89125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-31632106362146135072012-09-25T09:58:00.001-04:002012-09-25T09:58:26.622-04:00

9/25/12 Amazon pulled back today and held at the rising support line.  Stochastics have worked off their oversold conditions, and the Bollinger band and 50-day moving average have risen above the short strike, which is also over 3 ATRs away.  A little bit of price/volume resistance in the 245-250 area as well. I'm not condoring these spreads right off the bat.  If anything, I will

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-90013349819051785792012-09-24T17:43:00.002-04:002012-09-24T17:43:50.141-04:00

Over the weekend, Apple (AAPL) sold more than 5 million new iPhones in the first weeknd, but that's about half of what analysts expected.  In the EZ, Spain is running lottery bonds, and Germany is getting impatient.  The S&P continues to consolidate, forming a potential bull flag.  Will have to see how it plays out.  Regardless, the long-standing channel up remains

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-35975921132920245252012-09-21T11:17:00.000-04:002012-09-21T11:17:03.247-04:00

Today's first article comes from the folks @Optionpit. In their article, they point out an interesting Facebook ($FB) trade idea: "The FB Aug31 Weeklys were trading for a 44% volatility on the close today.  That is a full 25 pts. lower than the 10 day realized and 30 points below the 20 day realized volatility.  That is darn cheap gamma...  I think a 45% IV with 5 trading days

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-89126607018043117702012-09-19T11:05:00.001-04:002012-09-23T00:05:59.767-04:00

9/19/12 Another week, another new high in Equinix.  Selling bull put spreads under the Bollinger band, 50-day moving average, and the low from last week.  Almost 3 full ATRs away.  87% probability of max profit. Still not going to condor these.  Stock is just too strong lately. Trade: STO EQIX Oct 12 180/175 bull put spreads for ($1.77-$1.17) x 100 x 5 lots = $300 credit

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-50946118148721597362012-09-18T10:23:00.001-04:002012-09-18T10:23:30.556-04:00

9/18/12 Rolling these iron condors up and out to October.  Net credit is $0.20 per lot.  Keeping a bullish bias on this trade, which is why the put strikes are so high.  The 20- and 50-day moving averages will soon rise to meet that strike and act as support. Currently a 76% chance of success on the put side, 83% on the call side. Trade: STO MA Oct 12 435/430 bull put spreads for

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-79028157064714385972012-09-17T13:29:00.001-04:002012-09-17T13:29:15.923-04:00

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-63672822631862010852012-09-17T11:05:00.000-04:002012-09-17T11:05:11.939-04:00

9/17/12 Rolled the spreads from this trade out to October expiration.  This is a net credit of $0.21 per lot. Currently about 75% probability of win on both sides of the condor. Trade: STO Oct 12 CF 205/200 bull put spreads for ($3.61-$2.58) x 100 x 5 lots = $515 credit received STO Oct 12 CF 235/240 bear call spreads for ($2.35-$1.47) x 100 x 5 lots = $440 credit received

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-45995474871545277092012-09-11T10:30:00.002-04:002012-09-12T14:08:27.482-04:00

9/12/12 Just noticed that preliminary earnings announcement date is set for Oct-16, which is before opex.  This is not acceptable, per my rules.  Closing out the trade.  Actually not too bad, 27% of max profit in just two days. Trade: BTC Oct 12 IBM 190/185 bull put spreads for ($0.86-$0.48) x 100 x 5 spreads = $190 debit vs. $260 credit = $70 profit 9/11/12 Thanks to @ukarlewtiz

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-61906417112856087492012-09-10T17:34:00.002-04:002012-09-10T17:34:52.278-04:00

Last week the markets got a big boost after Super Mario announced that he is willing to open up the checkbook to help the EZ.  This produced a 30-point run up in the S&P, which someone told you to watch out for.  Retail sales appear to be up, but are hurt by rising food and gas prices.  NFL ticket prices and attendance also point to a recovery that hasn't fully taken hold yet.

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-7684658331240482172012-09-04T17:00:00.001-04:002012-09-04T17:00:55.514-04:00

September is here and after a few boring weeks, things could start to pick up in a hurry.  The major spark could come Thursday, when ECB president Draghi may announce more bond buying.  Other than that, the manufacturing sector has contracted for the third month in a row, and oil prices are continuing to creep up. The bears fought hard today, but in the end could only muster a

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-38397984526807620912012-09-04T12:59:00.003-04:002012-09-17T11:04:43.814-04:00

9/17/12 Taking today's pullback as an opportunity to roll these spreads out to October. Trade: BTC Sept 12 CF 185/180 bull put spreads for ($0.06-$0.04) x 100 x 5 lots = $10 debit vs. $225 credit = $215 profit BTC Sept 12 CF 220/225 bear call spreads for ($2.69-$1.01) x 100 x 5 lots = $840 debit vs. $235 credit = $605 loss 9/4/12 With the stock pulling back to several points of support today, I

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-52924391383706340922012-08-24T13:00:00.000-04:002012-08-24T13:00:02.793-04:00

Today's first article comes from my good friend Gavin at Options TradingIQ.  In his post, Gavin details some excellent ways to protect your iron condor positions from any sudden (and significant) market movements.  The most intriguing one is the use of further OTM puts to change the shape of the P/L graph for the condor. "...The second thing to note is the difference in the pink and

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-7292899621480492192012-08-23T17:31:00.002-04:002012-08-23T17:31:58.011-04:00

As some of you may have noticed, there is a new Affiliates section on the sidebar.  Today, The Option Premium Blog is thrilled to announce two new affiliates. The first is a good friend of mine.  BookingAlpha runs an excellent subscription-based trading service and blog.  He offers two different subscriptions, one for weekly and one for monthly options.  Each one also comes

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-71059214153241141612012-08-23T15:52:00.000-04:002012-08-27T09:36:44.582-04:00

8/27/12 The short 24 Aug weeklys expired worthless.  Now holding the long put & call for free.  Unfortunately the stock price is basically unchanged in the last few days, so these aren't worth much.  Had the opening price of ~140 from Friday held, this would've been a nice trade. 8/23/12 Salesforce (CRM) is reporting earnings after the close today.  I have no idea if it's

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-25212850666509249712012-08-22T10:06:00.000-04:002012-09-21T10:37:49.655-04:00

9/21/12 These spreads are expiring for full profit today. 8/22/12 After finally resting for a few and breaking out to all-time highs, Google (GOOG) is back on the move again.  While the current trendline is not sustainable for much longer, I'm going to use it as support for now.  Also keeping the short strike under the base around 640.  ATR is currently 10.6, which puts the short

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-51491430735489308652012-08-21T14:24:00.001-04:002012-09-19T10:45:45.480-04:00

9/19/12 Closing these for almost full profit.  No sense in risking it.  Total profit of $435 or $0.87 per lot. Trade: BTC Sept 12 AAPL 625/620 bull put spreads for ($0.05-$0.02) x 100 x 5 spreads = $15 debit vs $275 credit = $260 profit  8/27/12 Rolling up these put spreads with AAPL up big today on their Samsung lawsuit.  Net credit of $0.35 per lot. Currently an 86%

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-56735883324431559302012-08-20T17:03:00.000-04:002012-08-20T17:03:08.803-04:00

Another week, another melt up.  Other than Thursday's jump, the markets were relatively unchanged.  Overseas, Germany is keeping the pressure on Greece to keep up its end of the bailout bargain.  And today Apple (AAPL) overtook Microsoft ($MSFT) as the most valuable stock of all time. The three-month-long flag is still flying, with a possible resolution date at the end of next

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-43258864190723990312012-08-17T10:51:00.001-04:002012-08-17T10:51:43.302-04:00

Today's first article comes from Jeff Macke, who runs the Breakout blog on Yahoo Finance. Particularly true in the current market, Jeff describes the Costanza Trade idea in which bad news is good and good new is bad: "Experience only gets you in trouble. "It's not logical. You have to throw away everything you've ever learned about markets and stocks in order to put your money in," says

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-23922328791746377112012-08-16T10:20:00.003-04:002012-09-18T10:21:25.761-04:00

9/18/12 Rolling these IC's up and out to October.  Net loss on this trade is $170 or $0.34 per lot. Trade: BTC MA Sept 12 405/400 bull put spreads for ($0.19-$0.12) x 100 x 5 lots = $35 debit vs. $280 credit = $245 profit BTC MA Sept 12 455/460 bear call spreads for ($3.33-$1.76) x 100 x 5 lots = $785 debit vs. $155 credit = $630 loss 9/5/12 As planned, I'm moving up the put side of the

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-301076836785259602012-08-16T09:58:00.001-04:002012-09-17T09:49:15.157-04:00

9/17/12 Closing this trade today for a total of $350 profit or $0.70 per lot.  14% gainer. Trade: BTC EQIX Sept 12 175/170 bull put spreads for ($0.29-$0.25) x 100 x 5 lots = $20 debit vs. $205 credit = $185 profit 8/27/12 With the EQIX continuing to break out to new all-time highs, I'm rolling these put spreads up for a net credit of $0.22 per lot.  Staying under the 50-day moving

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-75766151961688955332012-08-13T16:31:00.000-04:002012-08-13T16:31:22.817-04:00

Following last week's low-volume snooze-fest, we learned that Japanese growth slowed to 1.4% annually.  Also of note is that Japan voted to double their sales tax over the next three years to help fight their growing debt.  When a similar course was taken in 1997, it had the effect of stalling out their economic recovery. More data is surfacing which continues to suggest that China is

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-55214460084490442272012-08-13T10:50:00.003-04:002012-09-13T13:48:26.123-04:00

9/13/12 Looks like Big Ben threw another wrench in the works today.  Markets up over 1% on the news of more QE (aka - crack) being injected into the system.  Had to roll these out to October.  Added more lots but tightened the spreads from 3- to 2-wide, thus lowering the total at risk. Trade: BTC SPY Sept 12 143/146 bear call spreads for ($2.70-$0.70) x 100 x 10 spreads = $2000

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-62733100273886421442012-08-10T09:43:00.002-04:002012-08-10T09:43:37.022-04:00

Today's first article some from Eric Parnell via SeekingAlpha.com.  Eric runs a great blog I've recently started reading at http://gerringwm.wordpress.com/. In today's post, Eric points out the deteriorating fundamental picture behind this latest market rally.  And if you've been following this blog and my tweets long enough, you'll know that I agree completely with what he says. "So

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-10140895461880899272012-08-08T12:07:00.000-04:002012-08-08T12:07:03.201-04:00

8/8/12 Jumping in here with August credit spreads.  Stock has been beaten up the last few days but the long-term rising trendline is still holding.  Originally wanted 400/395 but still keeping the short strike under the daily Bollinger band and the low from July.  OBV doesn't look great on this chart, but scroll down to the weekly... Lots of bullishness on this chart.  OBV

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5185681215847415453.post-70223592584930726622012-08-06T17:01:00.000-04:002012-08-06T17:01:22.548-04:00

A year after S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating, the market seems as if it never happened.  Even though the change in non-farm payrolls (NFP) went up, so did overall unemployment.  Knight Capital gets rescued after losing nearly $400 million.  And Mario Draghi created some selling pressure last Thursday by pulling a bait-and-switch. We keep breaking out to new highs, both

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0